Search results for: de-materialization account

Authors: Yakui Bai, Chen Sun, Ke Wang

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An experimental investigation of environmental effect on fatigue behavior in SA508 Gr.3 Cl.2 Steam Generator Forging CAP1400 nuclear power plant has been carried out. In order to simulate actual loading condition, a range of strain amplitude was applied in different low cycle fatigue (LCF) tests. The current American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) design fatigue code does not take full account of the interactions of environmental, loading, and material's factors. A range of strain amplitude was applied in different low cycle fatigue (LCF) tests at a strain rate of 0.01%s⁻¹. A design fatigue model was constructed by taking environmentally assisted fatigue effects into account, and the corresponding design curves were given for the convenience of engineering applications. The corrosion fatigue experiment was performed in a strain control mode in 320℃ borated and lithiated water environment to evaluate the effects of a mixed environment on fatigue life. Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) in steam generator large forging in primary water of pressurized water reactor was also observed. In addition, it is found that the CF life of SA508 Gr.3 Cl.2 decreases with increasing temperature in the water environment. The relationship between the reciprocal of temperature and the logarithm of fatigue life was found to be linear. Through experiments and subsequent analysis, the mechanisms of reduced low cycle fatigue life have been investigated for steam generator forging.

Keywords: failure behavior, low alloy steel, steam generator forging, stress corrosion cracking

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission

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Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar

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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T_1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.

Keywords: collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method

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Authors: El Alia Boularas, H. Bekkar, H. Larachi, H. Rezk-kallah

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Introduction: Notwithstanding cosmetics are used in life every day, these products are not all innocuous and harmless, as they may contain ingredients responsible for allergic reactions and, possibly, for other health problems. Additionally, environmental pollution should be taken into account. Thus, it is time to investigate what is ‘hidden behind beauty’. Aims: 1.To investigate prevalence of 13 chemical ingredients in cosmetics being object of concern, which the Algerians use regularly. 2.To know the profile of questioned consumers and describe their opinion on cosmetics. Methods: The survey was carried out in year 2013 over a period of 3 months, among Algerian Internet users having an e-mail address or a Facebook account.The study investigated 13 chemical agents showing health and environmental problems, selected after analysis of the recent studies published on the subject, the lists of national and international regulatory references on chemical hazards, and querying the database Skin Deep presented by the Environmental Working Group. Results: 300 people distributed all over the Algerian territory participated in the survey, providing information about 731 cosmetics; 86% aged from 20 to 39 years, with a sex ratio=0,27. A percentage of 43% of the analyzed cosmetics contained at least one of the 13 toxic ingredients. The targeted ingredient that has been most frequently reported was ‘perfume’ followed by parabens and PEG.85% of the participants declared that cosmetics ‘can contain toxic substances’, 27% asserted that they verify regularly the list of ingredients when they buy cosmetics, 61% said that they try to avoid the toxic ingredients, among whom 24 % were more vigilant on the presence of parabens, 95% were in favour of the strengthening of the Algerian laws on cosmetics. Conclusion: The results of the survey provide the indication of a widespread presence of toxic chemical ingredients in personal care products that Algerians use daily.

Keywords: Algerians consumers, cosmetics, survey, toxic ingredients

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Authors: Moaine Jebara, Lionel Boillereaux, Sofiane Belhabib, Michel Havet, Alain Sarda, Pierre Mousseau, Rémi Deterre

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Energy consumption efficiency is a major concern for the material processing industry such as thermoforming process and molding. Indeed, these systems should deliver the right amount of energy at the right time to the processed material. Recent technical development, as well as the particularities of the heating system dynamics, made the Model Predictive Control (MPC) one of the best candidates for thermal control of several production processes like molding and composite thermoforming to name a few. The main principle of this technique is to use a dynamic model of the process inside the controller in real time in order to anticipate the future behavior of the process which allows the current timeslot to be optimized while taking future timeslots into account. This study presents a procedure based on a predictive control that brings balance between optimality, simplicity, and flexibility of its implementation. The development of this approach is progressive starting from the case of a single zone before its extension to the multizone and/or multisource case, taking thus into account the thermal couplings between the adjacent zones. After a quadratic formulation of the MPC criterion to ensure the thermal control, the linear expression is retained in order to reduce calculation time thanks to the use of the ARMAX linear decomposition methods. The effectiveness of this approach is illustrated by experiment and simulation.

Keywords: energy efficiency, linear decomposition methods, model predictive control, mold heating systems

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Authors: Hassan Gholibeigian, Kazem Gholibeigian

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In this paper, our goal is determination of loading versus time in crust. For this goal, we present a computational procedure to propose a cumulative strain energy time profile which can be used to predict the approximate location and time of the next major earthquake (M > 4.5) along a specific fault, which we believe, is more accurate than many of the methods presently in use. In the coming pages, after a short review of the research works presently going on in the area of earthquake analysis and prediction, earthquake mechanisms in both the jerk and sequence earthquake direction is discussed, then our computational procedure is presented using differential equations of equilibrium which govern the nonlinear dynamic response of a system of finite elements, modified with an extra term to account for the jerk produced during the quake. We then employ Von Mises developed model for the stress strain relationship in our calculations, modified with the addition of an extra term to account for thermal effects. For calculation of the strain energy the idea of Pulsating Mantle Hypothesis (PMH) is used. This hypothesis, in brief, states that the mantle is under diurnal cyclic pulsating loads due to unbalanced gravitational attraction of the sun and the moon. A brief discussion is done on the Denali fault as a case study. The cumulative strain energy is then graphically represented versus time. At the end, based on some hypothetic earthquake data, the final results are verified.

Keywords: pulsating mantle hypothesis, inner core’s dislocation, outer core’s bulge, constitutive model, transient hydro-magneto-thermo-mechanical load, diurnal stress, jerk, fault behaviour

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold

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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.

Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors

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Authors: Abdelkader Mendas

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The integration of MultiCriteria Decision Making (MCDM) approaches in a Geographical Information System (GIS) provides a powerful spatial decision support system which offers the opportunity to efficiently produce the land suitability maps for agriculture. Indeed, GIS is a powerful tool for analyzing spatial data and establishing a process for decision support. Because of their spatial aggregation functions, MCDM methods can facilitate decision making in situations where several solutions are available, various criteria have to be taken into account and decision-makers are in conflict. The parameters and the classification system used in this work are inspired from the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) approach dedicated to a sustainable agriculture. A spatial decision support system has been developed for establishing the land suitability map for agriculture. It incorporates the multicriteria analysis method ELECTRE Tri (ELimitation Et Choix Traduisant la REalité) in a GIS within the GIS program package environment. The main purpose of this research is to propose a conceptual and methodological framework for the combination of GIS and multicriteria methods in a single coherent system that takes into account the whole process from the acquisition of spatially referenced data to decision-making. In this context, a spatial decision support system for developing land suitability maps for agriculture has been developed. The algorithm of ELECTRE Tri is incorporated into a GIS environment and added to the other analysis functions of GIS. This approach has been tested on an area in Algeria. A land suitability map for durum wheat has been produced. Through the obtained results, it appears that ELECTRE Tri method, integrated into a GIS, is better suited to the problem of land suitability for agriculture. The coherence of the obtained maps confirms the system effectiveness.

Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis, decision support system, geographical information system, land suitability for agriculture

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Anna Musiienko, Nataliia Zaverukha, Roksolana Povoroznyuk

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Along with the global aging of population, the number of people with somatic diseases is increasing, including such interrelated pathologies as obesity, osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP). The objective of the study is to examine the connection between body mass index (BMI), OA and bone mineral density (BMD) of lumbar spine, femoral neck and trabecular bone score (TBS) in postmenopausal women with OA. We have observed 359 postmenopausal women (50-89 years old) and divided them into four groups by age: 50-59 yrs, 60-69 yrs, 70-79 yrs and over 80 years old. In addition, according to the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) Clinical classification criteria for knee and hip OA, we divided them into 2 groups: group I – 117 females with symptomatic OA (including 89 patients with knee OA, 28 patients with hip OA) and group II –242 women with a normal functional activity of large joints. Analysis of data was performed taking into account their BMI, classified by World Health Organization (WHO). Diagnosis of obesity was established when BMI was above 30 kg/m². In woman with obesity, a symptomatic OA was detected in 44 postmenopausal women (41.1%), a normal functional activity of large joints - in 63 women (58.9%). However, in women with normal BMI – 73 women, who account for 29.0% of cases, a symptomatic OA was detected. According to a chi-squared (χ2) test, a significantly higher level of BMI was detected in postmenopausal women with OA (χ2 = 5.05, p = 0.02). Women with a symptomatic OA had a significantly higher BMD of lumbar spine compared with women who had a normal functional activity of large joints. No significant differences of BMD of femoral necks or TBS were detected in either the group with OA or with a normal functional activity of large joints.

Keywords: bone mineral density, body mass index, obesity, overweight, postmenopausal women, osteoarthritis

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Authors: P. V. S. Mascarenhas, B. C. P. Albuquerque, D. J. F. Campos, L. L. Almeida, V. R. Domingues, L. C. S. M. Ozelim

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Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.

Keywords: economical analysis, probability of failure, retaining walls, statistical analysis

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Authors: Mohsun Rasim Alizada, Azar Inshalla Ahmdov

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Prompt photons are perhaps the most versatile tools for studying the dynamics of relativistic collisions of heavy ions. The study of photon radiation is of interest that in most hadron interactions, photons fly out as a background to other studied signals. The study of the birth of prompt photons in nucleon-nucleon collisions was previously carried out in experiments on Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Due to the large energy of colliding nucleons, in addition to prompt photons, many different elementary particles are born. However, the birth of additional elementary particles makes it difficult to determine the accuracy of the effective section of the birth of prompt photons. From this point of view, the experiments planned on the Nuclotron-based Ion Collider Facility (NICA) complex will have a great advantage, since the energy obtained for colliding heavy ions will reduce the number of additionally born elementary particles. Of particular importance is the study of the processes of birth of prompt photons to determine the gluon leaving hadrons since the photon carries information about a rigid subprocess. At present, paper production of prompt photon in Compton scattering of quark-gluon and annihilation of quark–antiquark processes is investigated. The matrix elements Compton scattering of quark-gluon and annihilation of quark-antiquark pair processes has been written. The Square of matrix elements of processes has been calculated in FeynCalc. The phase volume of subprocesses has been determined. Expression to calculate the differential cross-section of subprocesses has been obtained: Given the resulting expressions for the square of the matrix element in the differential section expression, we see that the differential section depends not only on the energy of colliding protons, but also on the mass of quarks, etc. Differential cross-section of subprocesses is estimated. It is shown that the differential cross-section of subprocesses decreases with the increasing energy of colliding protons. Asymmetry coefficient with polarization of colliding protons is determined. The calculation showed that the squares of the matrix element of the Compton scattering process without and taking into account the polarization of colliding protons are identical. The asymmetry coefficient of this subprocess is zero, which is consistent with the literary data. It is known that in any single polarization processes with a photon, squares of matrix elements without taking into account and taking into account the polarization of the original particle must coincide, that is, the terms in the square of the matrix element with the degree of polarization are equal to zero. The coincidence of the squares of the matrix elements indicates that the parity of the system is preserved. The asymmetry coefficient of annihilation of quark–antiquark pair process linearly decreases from positive unit to negative unit with increasing the production of the polarization degrees of colliding protons. Thus, it was obtained that the differential cross-section of the subprocesses decreases with the increasing energy of colliding protons. The value of the asymmetry coefficient is maximal when the polarization of colliding protons is opposite and minimal when they are directed equally. Taking into account the polarization of only the initial quarks and gluons in Compton scattering does not contribute to the differential section of the subprocess.

Keywords: annihilation of a quark-antiquark pair, coefficient of asymmetry, Compton scattering, effective cross-section

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Authors: Erik Kuravsky

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One of the problems with a post-structuralist account of agency is that it appears to reject the freedom of an acting subject, thus seeming to deny the very phenomenon of agency. However, this is only a problem if we think that human beings can be agents exclusively in terms of being subjects, that is, if we think agency subjectively. Indeed, we tend to understand traditional theories of human freedom (e.g., Plato’s or Kant’s) in terms of a peculiar ability of the subject. The paper suggests to de-subjectivize agency with the help of Heidegger’s later thought. To do it, ir argues that classical theories of agency may indeed be interpreted as subject-oriented (sometimes even by their authors), but do not have to be read as such. Namely, the claim is that what makes agency what it is, what is essential in agency, is not its belonginess to a subject, but its ontological configuration. We may say that agency “happens,” and that there is a very specific ontological characteristics to this happening. The argument of the paper is that we can find these characteristic in the classical accounts of agency and that these characteristics are sufficient to distinguish human freedom from other natural phenomena. In particular, it offers to think agency not as one of human characteristics, but as an ontological event in which human beings take part. Namely, agency is a (non-human) characteristic of the different modes in which the experienceable existence of beings is determined by Being. To be an agent then is to participate in such ontological determination. What enables this participation is the ways human beings non-thematically understand the ontological difference. For example, for Plato, one acts freely only if one is led by an idea of the good, while for Kant the imperative for free action is categorial. The agency of an agent is thus dependent on the differentiation between ideas/categories and beings met in experience – one is “free” from contingent sensibility in terms of what is different from it ontologically. In this light, modern dependence on subjectivity is evident in the fact that the ontological difference is thought as belonging to one’s thinking, consciousness etc. That is, it is taken subjectively. A non-subjective account of agency, on the other hand, requires thinking this difference as belonging to Being itself, and thinking human beings as a medium within which occurs the non-human force of ontological differentiation.

Keywords: Heidegger, freedom, agency, poststructuralism

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Authors: Stefano M. Spagocci

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The efficiency of photovoltaic panels can be calculated with such software packages as RETScreen that allow design engineers to take financial as well as technical considerations into account. RETScreen is interfaced with meteorological databases, so that efficiency calculations can be realistically carried out. The author has recently contributed to the development of solar modules with accumulation capability and an embedded water purifier, aimed at off-grid users such as users in developing countries. The software packages examined do not allow to take ancillary equipment into account, hence the decision to implement a technical and financial model of the system. The author realized that, rather than re-implementing the quite sophisticated model of RETScreen - a mathematical description of which is anyway not publicly available - it was possible to drastically simplify it, including the meteorological factors which, in RETScreen, are presented in a numerical form. The day-by-day efficiency of a photovoltaic solar panel was parametrized by the product of factors expressing, respectively, daytime duration, solar right ascension motion, solar declination motion, cloudiness, temperature. For the sun-motion-dependent factors, positional astronomy formulae, simplified by the author, were employed. Meteorology-dependent factors were fitted by simple trigonometric functions, employing numerical data supplied by RETScreen. The accuracy of our model was tested by comparing it to the predictions of RETScreen; the accuracy obtained was 11%. In conclusion, our study resulted in a model that can be easily implemented in a spreadsheet - thus being easily manageable by non-specialist personnel - or in more sophisticated software packages. The model was used in a number of design exercises, concerning photovoltaic solar panels and ancillary equipment like the above-mentioned water purifier.

Keywords: clean energy, energy engineering, mathematical modelling, photovoltaic panels, solar energy

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Authors: Merve Sagiroglu

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The earthquake-resistant steel structure design is required taking into account the behavior of beam-column connections besides the basic properties of the structure such as material and geometry. Beam-column connections play an important role in the behavior of frame systems. Taking into account the behaviour of connection in analysis and design of steel frames is important due to presenting the actual behavior of frames. So, the behavior of the connections should be well known. The most important force which transmitted by connections in the structural system is the moment. The rotational deformation is customarily expressed as a function of the moment in the connection. So, the moment-rotation curves are the best expression of behaviour of the beam-to-column connections. The designed connections form various moment-rotation curves according to the elements of connection and the shape of placement. The only way to achieve this curve is with real-scale experiments. The experiments of some connections have been carried out partially and are formed in the databank. It has been formed the models using this databank to express the behavior of connection. In this study, theoretical studies have been carried out to model a real behavior of the top and seat angles connections with angles. Two stiffeners in the top and seat angle to increase the stiffness of the connection, and two stiffeners in the beam web to prevent local buckling are used in this beam-to-column connection. Mathematical models have been performed using the database of the beam-to-column connection experiments previously by authors. Using the data of the tests, it has been aimed that analytical expressions have been developed to obtain the moment-rotation curve for the connection details whose test data are not available. The connection has been dimensioned in various shapes and the effect of the dimensions of the connection elements on the behavior has been examined.

Keywords: top and seat angle connection, stiffener, moment-rotation curves, analytical study

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Authors: Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa

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This paper attempts to assess the impacts of Climate change (CC) on inequalities in the labour market. CC will have the most serious effects on some vulnerable economic sectors, such as agriculture, livestock or tourism, but also on the most vulnerable population groups. The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of CC on the labour market and particularly on Mexican women. Influential documents such as the synthesis reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 and 2014 revived a global effort to counteract the effects of CC, called for an analysis of the impacts on vulnerable socio-economic groups and on economic activities, and for the development of decision-making tools to enable policy and other decisions based on the complexity of the world in relation to climate change, taking into account socio-economic attributes. We follow up this suggestion and determine the impact of CC on vulnerable populations in the Mexican labour market, taking into account two attributes (gender and level of qualification of workers). Most studies have focused on the effects of CC on the agricultural sector, as it is considered a highly vulnerable economic sector to the effects of climate variability. This research seeks to contribute to the existing literature taking into account, in addition to the agricultural sector, other sectors such as tourism, water availability, and energy that are of vital importance to the Mexican economy. Likewise, the effects of climate change will be extended to the labour market and specifically to women who in some cases have been left out. The studies are sceptical about the impact of CC on the female labour market because of the perverse effects on women's domestic work, which are too often omitted from analyses. This work will contribute to the literature by integrating domestic work, which in the case of Mexico is much higher among women than among men (80.9% vs. 19.1%), according to the 2009 time use survey. This study is relevant since it will allow us to analyse impacts of climate change not only in the labour market of the formal economy, but also in the non-market sphere. Likewise, we consider that including the gender dimension is valid for the Mexican economy as it is a country with high degrees of gender inequality in the labour market. In the OECD economic study for Mexico (2017), the low labour participation of Mexican women is highlighted. Although participation has increased substantially in recent years (from 36% in 1990 to 47% in 2017), it remains low compared to the OECD average where women participate around 70% of the labour market. According to Mexico's 2009 time use survey, domestic work represents about 13% of the total time available. Understanding the interdependence between the market and non-market spheres, and the gender division of labour within them is the necessary premise for any economic analysis aimed at promoting gender equality and inclusive growth.

Keywords: climate change, labour market, domestic work, rural sector

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Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

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The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Dandeswar Bisoyi, Preeti Yadav, Utpal Barua

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This study address particular way that verbal information can affect the processing of positive and interesting qualities which help in making the brand attractive to the consumer. Also, it address the development of a communication strategy which is a very important part of the marketing plan we have to take into account many factors. Out of all the product strengths, the strategy has to outline one marked differential which will drive our brand. This is the fundamental base on which the entire creative strategy will be big idea-based.

Keywords: copy writing, advertisement, marketing, branding, recall

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Authors: Daniela Gnarini

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This paper aims to contribute to the field of immigrants' entrepreneurial performance. The debate on immigrant entrepreneurship has been dominated by cultural explanations, which argue that immigrants’ entrepreneurial results are linked to groups’ characteristics. However, this approach does not consider important dimensions that influence entrepreneurial performances. Furthermore, cultural theories do not take into account the huge differences in performances also within the same ethnic group. For these reason, this study adopts a biographical approach, both at theoretical and at methodological level, which can allow to understand the main aspects that make the difference in immigrants' entrepreneurial performances, by exploring the narratives of immigrant entrepreneurs, who operate in the restaurant sector in two different Italian metropolitan areas: Milan and Rome. Through the qualitative method of biographical interviews, this study analyses four main dimensions and their combinations: a) individuals' entrepreneurial and migratory path: this aspect is particularly relevant to understand the biographical resources of immigrant entrepreneurs and their change and evolution during time; b) entrepreneurs' social capital, with a particular focus on their networks, through the adoption of a transnational perspective, that takes into account both the local level and the transnational connections. This study highlights that, though entrepreneurs’ connections are significant, especially as far as those with family members are concerned, often their entrepreneurial path assumes an individualised trajectory. c) Entrepreneurs' human capital, including both formal education and skills acquired through informal channels. The latter are particularly relevant since in the interviews and data collected the role of informal transmission emerges. d) Embeddedness within the social, political and economic context, to understand the main constraints and opportunities both at local and national level. The comparison between two different metropolitan areas within the same country helps to understand this dimension.

Keywords: biographies, immigrant entrepreneurs, life stories, performance

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Authors: Rony Tawk, Boutros Ghannam, Maroun Nemer

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Topology optimization technique presents a potential tool for the design and optimization of structures involved in mass and heat transfer. The method starts with an initial intermediate domain and should be able to progressively distribute the solid and the two fluids exchanging heat. The multi-objective function of the problem takes into account minimization of total pressure loss and maximization of heat transfer between solid and fluid subdomains. Existing methods account for the presence of only one fluid, while the actual work extends optimization distribution of solid and two different fluids. This requires to separate the channels of both fluids and to ensure a minimum solid thickness between them. This is done by adding a third objective function to the multi-objective optimization problem. This article uses density approach where each cell holds two local design parameters ranging from 0 to 1, where the combination of their extremums defines the presence of solid, cold fluid or hot fluid in this cell. Finite volume method is used for direct solver coupled with a discrete adjoint approach for sensitivity analysis and method of moving asymptotes for numerical optimization. Several examples are presented to show the ability of the method to find a trade-off between minimization of power dissipation and maximization of heat transfer while ensuring the separation and continuity of the channel of each fluid without crossing or mixing the fluids. The main conclusion is the possibility to find an optimal bi-fluid domain using topology optimization, defining a fluid to fluid heat exchanger device.

Keywords: topology optimization, density approach, bi-fluid domain, laminar steady state regime, fluid-to-fluid heat exchanger

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Authors: Zwelenkani Mdlalose

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From the moment Covid 19 was declared a pandemic it became clear that conspiracy theories would significantly impact our response to the crisis that the virus was to become. Central to the interest in conspiracy theories evoked by a pandemic is a more general concern for the impact they have on society and social harmony. The specific brand of Conspiracy Theory that is in question is not any and all theories about conspiracies but rather those conspiracy theories which contradict official accounts. For example, where the official account on the terrorist attacks of September 11 2001 is of a conspiracy involving 19 militants associated with the Islamic extremist group al-Qaeda against targets in the United States, the nature of conspiracy theory under study is the one contradicting this official account to the extent that its attributes the attacks not to al-Qaeda militants but to actors in the United States government itself. The study is not an investigation into the truth value of conspiracy theories but rather an attempt at observing the essential qualities of the type of belief that is belief in conspiracy theories compared to belief in official accounts provided by authoritative sources such as governments, experts and mainstream media. These qualities include the psychological, epistemic and socio-political foundations on which belief in conspiracy theories are established. Based on a foundational understanding of the sort of belief that are beliefs in conspiracy theories, we may then extrapolate implied ethical demands on both authoritative bodies and actors as well as believers in conspiracy theories. For example: in their unofficial ‘non-factual’ status, is there not some violation of epistemic right in the same way we observe in cases where people are prejudiced because of their religious beliefs? In other words, is there an epistemic injustice suffered by believers in conspiracy theories in the way their beliefs are rejected as illegitimate? Conversely, to what extent do believers bear an epistemic responsibility in their adoption of their beliefs in conspiracy theories. From this position, perhaps we can then develop responses to the problem that foster greater social harmony even in the midst of suspicion and distrust.

Keywords: conspiracy theories, subjugated knowledge, epistemic injustice, epistemic responsibility

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Authors: Farzad Danaei, Yilmaz Akkaya

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In many civil engineering applications, especially in the construction of large concrete structures, the early age behavior of concrete has shown to be a crucial problem. The uneven rise in temperature within the concrete in these constructions is the fundamental issue for quality control. Therefore, developing accurate and fast temperature prediction models is essential. The thermal properties of concrete fluctuate over time as it hardens, but taking into account all of these fluctuations makes numerical models more complex. Experimental measurement of the thermal properties at the laboratory conditions also can not accurately predict the variance of these properties at site conditions. Therefore, specific heat capacity and the heat conductivity coefficient are two variables that are considered constant values in many of the models previously recommended. The proposed equations demonstrate that these two quantities are linearly decreasing as cement hydrates, and their value are related to the degree of hydration. The effects of changing the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity values on the maximum temperature and the time it takes for concrete to reach that temperature are examined in this study using numerical sensibility analysis, and the results are compared to models that take a fixed value for these two thermal properties. The current study is conducted in 7 different mix designs of concrete with varying amounts of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag). It is concluded that the maximum temperature will not change as a result of the constant conductivity coefficient, but variable specific heat capacity must be taken into account, also about duration when a concrete's central node reaches its max value again variable specific heat capacity can have a considerable effect on the final result. Also, the usage of GGBFS has more influence compared to fly ash.

Keywords: early-age concrete, mass concrete, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity coefficient

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Authors: Ayoola Femi J., Kayode Balogun

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In some African Countries, increase in Gross Domestic Products (GDP) has not translated to real development as expected by common-man in his household. For decades, a lot of contests on economic growth and development has been a nagging issues. The focus of this study is to analysing the effects of economic determinants/factors on economic advances in some African Countries by employing panel data analysis. The yearly (1990-2013) data were obtained from the world economic outlook database of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for probing the effects of these variables on growth rate in some selected African countries which include: Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cape-Verde, Cameroun, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic Of Congo, Cote di’ Voire, Egypt, Equatorial-Guinea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, and Uganda. The effects of 6 macroeconomic variables on GDP were critically examined. We used 37 Countries GDP as our dependent variable and 6 independent variables used in this study include: Total Investment (totinv), Inflation (inf), Population (popl), current account balance (cab), volume of imports of goods and services (vimgs), and volume of exports of goods and services (vexgs). The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of our analysis shows that total investment, population and volume of exports of goods and services strongly affect the economic growth. We noticed that population of these selected countries positively affect the GDP while total investment and volume of exports negatively affect GDP. On the contrary, inflation, current account balance and volume of imports of goods and services’ contribution to the GDP are insignificant. The results of this study would be useful for individual African governments for developing a suitable and appropriate economic policies and strategies. It will also help investors to understand the economic nature and viability of Africa as a continent as well as its individual countries.

Keywords: African countries, economic growth and development, gross domestic products, static panel data models

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Authors: Zineddine Bouyahiaoui, Rabah Haoui

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The aim of this work is to analyze a flow around the axisymmetric blunt body taken into account the chemical and vibrational nonequilibrium flow. This work concerns the entry of spacecraft in the atmosphere of the planet Mars. Since the equations involved are non-linear partial derivatives, the volume method is the only way to solve this problem. The choice of the mesh and the CFL is a condition for the convergence to have the stationary solution.

Keywords: blunt body, finite volume, hypersonic flow, viscous flow

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Authors: Justine Salam

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As a federal state, Canada’s constitutional arrangements regarding the management of natural resources is unique because it gives complete ownership and control of natural resources to the provinces (subnational level). However, the province of Alberta—home to the third largest oil reserves in the world—lags behind comparable jurisdictions in levying royalties on oil corporations, especially oil sands royalties. While Albertans own the oil sands, scholars have argued that natural resource exploitation in Alberta benefits corporations and industry more than it does Albertans. This study provides a systematic understanding of the causal factors affecting royalties in Alberta to map dynamics of power and how they manifest themselves during policy-making. Mounting domestic and global public pressure led Alberta to review its oil sands royalties twice in less than a decade through public-commissioned Royalty Review Panels, first in 2007 and again in 2015. The Panels’ task was to research best practices and to provide policy recommendations to the Government through public consultations with Albertans, industry, non-governmental organizations, and First Nations peoples. Both times, the Panels recommended a relative increase to oil sands royalties. However, irrespective of the Reviews’ recommendations, neither the right-wing 2007 Progressive Conservative Party (PC) nor the left-wing 2015 New Democratic Party (NDP) government—both committed to increase oil sands royalties—increased royalty intake. Why did two consecutive political parties at opposite ends of the political spectrum fail to account for the recommendations put forward by the Panel? Through a qualitative case-study analysis, this study assesses domestic and global causal factors for Alberta’s inability to raise oil sands royalties significantly after the two Reviews through an institutions, interests, and ideas framework. Indeed, causal factors can be global (e.g. market and price fluctuation) or domestic (e.g. oil companies’ influence on the Alberta government). The institutions, interests, and ideas framework is at the intersection of public policy, comparative studies, and political economy literatures, and therefore draws multi-faceted insights into the analysis. To account for institutions, the study proposes to review international trade agreements documents such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) because they have embedded Alberta’s oil sands into American energy security policy and tied Canadian and Albertan oil policy in legal international nods. To account for interests, such as how the oil lobby or the environment lobby can penetrate governmental decision-making spheres, the study draws on the Oil Sands Oral History project, a database of interviews from government officials and oil industry leaders at a pivotal time in Alberta’s oil industry, 2011-2013. Finally, to account for ideas, such as how narratives of Canada as a global ‘energy superpower’ and the importance of ‘energy security’ have dominated and polarized public discourse, the study relies on content analysis of Alberta-based pro-industry newspapers to trace the prevalence of these narratives. By mapping systematically the nods and dynamics of power at play in Alberta, the study sheds light on the factors that influence royalty policy-making in one of the largest industries in Canada.

Keywords: Alberta Canada, natural resources governance, oil sands, political economy

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Authors: Irene Yi

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Machine learning, natural language processing, and neural network models of language are becoming more and more prevalent in the fields of technology and linguistics today. Training data for machines are at best, large corpora of human literature and at worst, a reflection of the ugliness in society. Machines have been trained on millions of human books, only to find that in the course of human history, derogatory and sexist adjectives are used significantly more frequently when describing females in history and literature than when describing males. This is extremely problematic, both as training data, and as the outcome of natural language processing. As machines start to handle more responsibilities, it is crucial to ensure that they do not take with them historical sexist and misogynistic notions. This paper gathers data and algorithms from neural network models of language having to deal with syntax, semantics, sociolinguistics, and text classification. Results are significant in showing the existing intentional and unintentional misogynistic notions used to train machines, as well as in developing better technologies that take into account the semantics and syntax of text to be more mindful and reflect gender equality. Further, this paper deals with the idea of non-binary gender pronouns and how machines can process these pronouns correctly, given its semantic and syntactic context. This paper also delves into the implications of gendered grammar and its effect, cross-linguistically, on natural language processing. Languages such as French or Spanish not only have rigid gendered grammar rules, but also historically patriarchal societies. The progression of society comes hand in hand with not only its language, but how machines process those natural languages. These ideas are all extremely vital to the development of natural language models in technology, and they must be taken into account immediately.

Keywords: gendered grammar, misogynistic language, natural language processing, neural networks

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Authors: Andres Diaz Garcia

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The successful technological development of any bioproduct, including those of the biostimulant type, requires to adequately completion of a series of stages allied to different disciplines that are related to microbiological, engineering, pharmaceutical chemistry, legal and market components, among others. Engineering as a discipline has a key contribution in different aspects of fermentation processes such as the design and optimization of culture media, the standardization of operating conditions within the bioreactor and the scaling of the production process of the active ingredient that it will be used in unit operations downstream. However, all aspects mentioned must take into account many biological factors of the microorganism such as the growth rate, the level of assimilation to various organic and inorganic sources and the mechanisms of action associated with its biological activity. This paper focuses on the practical experience within the Colombian Corporation for Agricultural Research (Agrosavia), which led to the development of a biostimulant bioproduct based on native rhizobacteria Bacillus amyloliquefaciens, oriented mainly to plant growth promotion in cape gooseberry nurseries and fruit crops in Colombia, and the challenges that were overcome from the expertise in the area of engineering. Through the application of strategies and engineering tools, a culture medium was optimized to obtain concentrations higher than 1E09 CFU (colony form units)/ml in liquid fermentation, the process of biomass production was standardized and a scale-up strategy was generated based on geometric (H/D of bioreactor relationships), and operational criteria based on a minimum dissolved oxygen concentration and that took into account the differences in the capacity of control of the process in the laboratory and pilot scales. Currently, the bioproduct obtained through this technological process is in stages of registration in Colombia for cape gooseberry fruits for export.

Keywords: biochemical engineering, liquid fermentation, plant growth promoting, scale-up process

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Authors: Zouari Ezzeddine, Ghraieb Ikram

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From the results of the academic literature which evokes the limitations of previous studies, this article shows the reasons for multidimensionality Prediction of financial bubbles. A new framework for modeling study predicting financial bubbles by linking a set of variable presented on several dimensions dictating its multidimensional character. It takes into account the preferences of financial actors. A multicriteria anticipation of the appearance of bubbles in international financial markets helps to fight against a possible crisis.

Keywords: classical measures, predictions, financial bubbles, multidimensional, artificial neural networks

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Authors: Animish Jain

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This study deals with using Multiplicative Weight Update within artificial intelligence and machine learning to create models that can diagnose skin cancer using microscopic images of cancer samples. In this study, the multiplicative weight update method is used to take the predictions of multiple models to try and acquire more accurate results. Logistic Regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVMC) models are employed within the Multiplicative Weight Update system. These models are trained on pictures of skin cancer from the ISIC-Archive, to look for patterns to label unseen scans as either benign or malignant. These models are utilized in a multiplicative weight update algorithm which takes into account the precision and accuracy of each model through each successive guess to apply weights to their guess. These guesses and weights are then analyzed together to try and obtain the correct predictions. The research hypothesis for this study stated that there would be a significant difference in the accuracy of the three models and the Multiplicative Weight Update system. The SVMC model had an accuracy of 77.88%. The CNN model had an accuracy of 85.30%. The Logistic Regression model had an accuracy of 79.09%. Using Multiplicative Weight Update, the algorithm received an accuracy of 72.27%. The final conclusion that was drawn was that there was a significant difference in the accuracy of the three models and the Multiplicative Weight Update system. The conclusion was made that using a CNN model would be the best option for this problem rather than a Multiplicative Weight Update system. This is due to the possibility that Multiplicative Weight Update is not effective in a binary setting where there are only two possible classifications. In a categorical setting with multiple classes and groupings, a Multiplicative Weight Update system might become more proficient as it takes into account the strengths of multiple different models to classify images into multiple categories rather than only two categories, as shown in this study. This experimentation and computer science project can help to create better algorithms and models for the future of artificial intelligence in the medical imaging field.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, multiplicative weight update, skin cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 51