Search results for: market crash prediction

Authors: Jihee Jang, Seowon Yoon, Gaeun Son, Minjung Kang, Joon Yeon Choeh, Kee-Hong Choi

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Background: Self-report multiple choice questionnaires have been widely utilized to quantitatively measure one’s personality and psychological constructs. Despite several strengths (e.g., brevity and utility), self-report multiple-choice questionnaires have considerable limitations in nature. With the rise of machine learning (ML) and Natural language processing (NLP), researchers in the field of psychology are widely adopting NLP to assess psychological constructs to predict human behaviors. However, there is a lack of connections between the work being performed in computer science and that psychology due to small data sets and unvalidated modeling practices. Aims: The current article introduces the study method and procedure of phase II, which includes the interview questions for the five-factor model (FFM) of personality developed in phase I. This study aims to develop the interview (semi-structured) and open-ended questions for the FFM-based personality assessments, specifically designed with experts in the field of clinical and personality psychology (phase 1), and to collect the personality-related text data using the interview questions and self-report measures on personality and psychological distress (phase 2). The purpose of the study includes examining the relationship between natural language data obtained from the interview questions, measuring the FFM personality constructs, and psychological distress to demonstrate the validity of the natural language-based personality prediction. Methods: The phase I (pilot) study was conducted on fifty-nine native Korean adults to acquire the personality-related text data from the interview (semi-structured) and open-ended questions based on the FFM of personality. The interview questions were revised and finalized with the feedback from the external expert committee, consisting of personality and clinical psychologists. Based on the established interview questions, a total of 425 Korean adults were recruited using a convenience sampling method via an online survey. The text data collected from interviews were analyzed using natural language processing. The results of the online survey, including demographic data, depression, anxiety, and personality inventories, were analyzed together in the model to predict individuals’ FFM of personality and the level of psychological distress (phase 2).

Keywords: personality prediction, psychological distress prediction, natural language processing, machine learning, the five-factor model of personality

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Authors: Kyu Jin Kim, Byung Kwan Oh, Hyo Seon Park

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The seismic responses-based structural health monitoring system has been performed to prevent seismic damage. Structural seismic damage of building is caused by the instantaneous stress concentration which is related with dynamic characteristic of earthquake. Meanwhile, seismic response analysis to estimate the dynamic responses of building demands significantly high computational cost. To prevent the failure of structural members from the characteristic of the earthquake and the significantly high computational cost for seismic response analysis, this paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN) based prediction model for dynamic responses of building considering specific time length. Through the measured dynamic responses, input and output node of the ANN are formed by the length of specific time, and adopted for the training. In the model, evolutionary radial basis function neural network (ERBFNN), that radial basis function network (RBFN) is integrated with evolutionary optimization algorithm to find variables in RBF, is implemented. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through an analytical study applying responses from dynamic analysis for multi-degree of freedom system to training data in ERBFNN.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic response, artificial neural network, radial basis function network, genetic algorithm

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Authors: D. G. Badagha, C. D. Modhera, S. A. Vasanwala

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There is a great challenge for civil engineering field to contribute in environment prevention by finding out alternatives of cement and natural aggregates. There is a problem of global warming due to cement utilization in concrete, so it is necessary to give sustainable solution to produce concrete containing waste. It is very difficult to produce designated grade of concrete containing different ingredient and water cement ratio including waste to achieve desired fresh and harden properties of concrete as per requirement and specifications. To achieve the desired grade of concrete, a number of trials have to be taken, and then after evaluating the different parameters at long time performance, the concrete can be finalized to use for different purposes. This research work is carried out to solve the problem of time, cost and serviceability in the field of construction. In this research work, artificial neural network introduced to fix proportion of concrete ingredient with 50% waste replacement for M20, M25, M30, M35, M40, M45, M50, M55 and M60 grades of concrete. By using the neural network, mix design of high performance concrete was finalized, and the main basic mechanical properties were predicted at 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. The predicted strength was compared with the actual experimental mix design and concrete cube strength after 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. This experimentally and neural network based mix design can be used practically in field to give cost effective, time saving, feasible and sustainable high performance concrete for different types of structures.

Keywords: artificial neural network, high performance concrete, rebound hammer, strength prediction

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Authors: Iruka C. Anugwo, Winston M. Shakantu

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The objective of this study is to uncover the basic business-forces that necessitated the survival and sustainable performance of the medium scale contractors in the South African construction market. This study is essential as it set to contribute towards long-term strategic solutions for combating the incessant failure of start-ups construction organizations within South African. The study used a qualitative research methodology; as the most appropriate approach to elicit and understand, and uncover the phenomena that are basic business-forces for the active contractors in the market. The study also adopted a phenomenological study approach; and in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 medium scale contractors in Port Elizabeth, South Africa, between months of August to October 2015. This allowed for an in-depth understanding of the critical and basic business-forces that influenced their survival and performance beyond the first five years of business operation. Findings of the study showed that for potential contractors (startups), to survival in the competitive business environment such as construction industry, they must possess the basic business-forces. These forces are educational knowledge in construction and business management related disciplines, adequate industrial experiences, competencies and capabilities to delivery excellent services and products as well as embracing the spirit of entrepreneurship. Convincingly, it can be concluded that the strategic approach to minimize the endless failure of startups construction businesses; the potential construction contractors must endeavoring to access and acquire the basic educationally knowledge, training and qualification; need to acquire industrial experiences in collaboration with required competencies, capabilities and entrepreneurship acumen. Without these basic business-forces as been discovered in this study, the majority of the contractors gaining entrance in the market will find it difficult to develop and grow a competitive and sustainable construction organization in South Africa.

Keywords: basic business-forces, medium scale contractors, South Africa, sustainable organisations

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Authors: An-an Chiu, Shaio Yan Huang, Ling-Na Chen, Wei-Hua Lin

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Research has primarily focused on listed companies, less is done regarding small and medium-sized enterprises. Under the authorities' support, Taipei Exchange (TPEx) started Go Incubation Board for Startup and Acceleration Firms (GISA) in January 2014. This platform is designed to help small-sized innovative companies grow and to enter the capital market in the future. This research yield insight into earnings management activities around seasoned equity offerings (SEO) based on Taiwan’s GISA firms and the effectiveness of external corporate governance. Data for the study come from the GISA Market Observation Post System from January 2014 to December 2016. The result finds that GISA firms prone to upward accrual-based earnings management during SEO to avoid long-term negative consequences. Especially, firms with paid-in capital more than NT$ 30 million, higher fundraising amounts, or smaller-sized firms, tend to increase discretionary accruals. Finally, consistent with prior literature, CPA firms effectively serve as the role of external corporate governances on mitigating earnings management.

Keywords: GISA, earnings　management, CPA, seasoned equity offerings

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Authors: Wen-Hsiang Lai, Mei-Wen Chen

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In the face of developing new technologies, identifying potential new technological product and the suitable market is important. Since laser technology is widely applied in many industries, this study explores the technology commercialization of laser technology. According to the literature review and industry analysis, this study discusses the factors influencing the consumer’s purchase intention and tries to find a new market direction to develop the laser technology. This study adopts a new product adoption model as the research framework and uses three variables of ‘Consumer characteristics’, ‘Perception of product attributes’ and ‘External environment’ to discuss the purchase intention of consumers, who are physicians and owners of the medical cosmetics. This study finds that in the major variable of ‘Consumer characteristics’, the sub-variables of ‘Personality’, ‘Knowledge of product’, ‘Perceived risk’ and ‘Motivation’ are significantly related to consumer’s purchase intention. In the major variable of ‘Perception of product attributes’, the sub-variables of ‘Brand’ and ‘Measure of manufacture country’ are the key factors that affect the willingness of consumer’s purchase intention. Finally, in the major variable of ‘External environment’ variable, the sub-variables of ‘Time’ and ‘Price’ have significant impact on consumer’s purchase intention.

Keywords: technology commercialization, new product adoption, consumer’s purchase intention, laser technology

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Authors: Harish Krishnamurthy, Anna Lafontant, Ren Yi

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Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) have been an interesting topic for most enthusiasts and hence people all over the United States report such findings online at the National UFO Report Center (NUFORC). Some of these reports are a hoax and among those that seem legitimate, our task is not to establish that these events confirm that they indeed are events related to flying objects from aliens in outer space. Rather, we intend to identify if the report was a hoax as was identified by the UFO database team with their existing curation criterion. However, the database provides a wealth of information that can be exploited to provide various analyses and insights such as social reporting, identifying real-time spatial events and much more. We perform analysis to localize these time-series geospatial events and correlate with known real-time events. This paper does not confirm any legitimacy of alien activity, but rather attempts to gather information from likely legitimate reports of UFOs by studying the online reports. These events happen in geospatial clusters and also are time-based. We look at cluster density and data visualization to search the space of various cluster realizations to decide best probable clusters that provide us information about the proximity of such activity. A random forest classifier is also presented that is used to identify true events and hoax events, using the best possible features available such as region, week, time-period and duration. Lastly, we show the performance of the scheme on various days and correlate with real-time events where one of the UFO reports strongly correlates to a missile test conducted in the United States.

Keywords: time-series clustering, feature extraction, hoax prediction, geospatial events

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Authors: Mohammed N. Al Kindi, Mazin Al Khabouri, Khalsa Al Lamki, Tommasso Pappuci, Giovani Romeo, Nadia Al Wardy

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Hereditary hearing loss is a heterogeneous group of complex disorders with an overall incidence of one in every five hundred newborns presented as syndromic and non-syndromic forms. Cadherin-related 23 (CDH23) is one of the listed deafness causative genes. CDH23 is found to be expressed in the stereocilia of hair cells and the retina photoreceptor cells. Defective CDH23 has been associated mostly with prelingual severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in either syndromic (USH1D) or non-syndromic SNHL (DFNB12). An Omani family diagnosed clinically with severe-profound sensorineural hearing loss was genetically analysed by whole exome sequencing technique. A novel homozygous missense variant, c.A7451C (p.D2484A), in exon 53 of CDH23 was detected. One hundred and thirty control samples were analysed where all were negative for the detected variant. The variant was analysed in silico for pathogenicity verification using several mutation prediction software. The variant proved to be a pathogenic mutation and is reported for the first time in Oman and worldwide. It is concluded that in silico mutation prediction analysis might be used as a useful molecular diagnostics tool benefiting both genetic counseling and mutation verification. The aspartic acid 2484 alanine missense substitution might be the main disease-causing mutation that damages CDH23 function and could be used as a genetic hearing loss marker for this particular Omani family.

Keywords: Cdh23, d2484a, in silico, Oman

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Authors: Yazan Al-Kofahi, Jamal Alqawasmi.

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In this study, a comprehensive literature review (SLR) was conducted, with the main goal of assessing the existing literature about how artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL) models are used in sustainable architecture applications and issues including thermal comfort satisfaction, energy efficiency, cost prediction and many others issues. For this reason, the search strategy was initiated by using different databases, including Scopus, Springer and Google Scholar. The inclusion criteria were used by two research strings related to DL, ML and sustainable architecture. Moreover, the timeframe for the inclusion of the papers was open, even though most of the papers were conducted in the previous four years. As a paper filtration strategy, conferences and books were excluded from database search results. Using these inclusion and exclusion criteria, the search was conducted, and a sample of 59 papers was selected as the final included papers in the analysis. The data extraction phase was basically to extract the needed data from these papers, which were analyzed and correlated. The results of this SLR showed that there are many applications of ML and DL in Sustainable buildings, and that this topic is currently trendy. It was found that most of the papers focused their discussions on addressing Environmental Sustainability issues and factors using machine learning predictive models, with a particular emphasis on the use of Decision Tree algorithms. Moreover, it was found that the Random Forest repressor demonstrates strong performance across all feature selection groups in terms of cost prediction of the building as a machine-learning predictive model.

Keywords: machine learning, deep learning, artificial intelligence, sustainable building

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Authors: Mohammad Altaf Hossain

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A growing body of literature in urban studies has presented that urban precarity has been a lived experience for low-income groups of people in the cities of the Global South. It does not necessarily mean that cities in the Global North, where advanced capitalist economies exist, avoided the adverse realities of urban precarity. As a multifaceted condition, it creates other associated precariousness in lives -for example, economic deprivation, mental stress, and housing precarity. The interrelations between urbanity and precarity have been ubiquitous regardless of the developed and developing countries. People, mainly manual labourers with low incomes, go through uncertainties in every aspect of life. By analysing qualitative data and embracing structure-agency interaction, this paper intends to present how Bangladeshi migrants experience housing precarity in Dublin. Continued population growth and political economy factors such as labour market inequality, financialisation of the private rental sector, and the impact of cuts to government funding for social housing provision are combined to produce a housing supply crisis, affordability, and access in the city. As a result, low-income people practice informality in securing jobs and housing. The macro-structural components of this analysis include the Irish housing policy, the European labour market, the immigration policy, and the financialised housing market. The micro-structural components of South Asian communities’ experiences include social networks and social class. Access to social networks and practices of informality play a significant role in enabling them to negotiate urban precarity, including housing crises and income insecurity. In some cases, the collective agency of ethnic diaspora communities plays a vital role in negotiating with structural constraints.

Keywords: housing precarity, housing pathways, migration, agency, Dublin

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: Prof. Ammal Mokhtar Metwally, Samia M. Sami, Nihad A. Ibrahim, Fatma A. Shaaban, Iman I. Salama

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Objectives: Reducing neonatal mortality by 2030 is still a challenging goal in developing countries. low birth weight (LBW) is a significant contributor to this, especially where weighing newborns is not possible routinely. The present study aimed to determine a simple, easy, reliable anthropometric measure(s) that can predict LBW) and neonatal mortality. Methods: A prospective cohort study of 570 babies born in districts of El Menia governorate, Egypt (where most deliveries occurred at home) was examined at birth. Newborn weight, length, head, chest, mid-arm, and thigh circumferences were measured. Follow up of the examined neonates took place during their first four weeks of life to report any mortalities. The most predictable anthropometric measures were determined using the statistical package of SPSS, and multiple Logistic regression analysis was performed.: Results: Head and chest circumferences with cut-off points < 33 cm and ≤ 31.5 cm, respectively, were the significant predictors for LBW. They carried the best combination of having the highest sensitivity (89.8 % & 86.4 %) and least false negative predictive value (1.4 % & 1.7 %). Chest circumference with a cut-off point ≤ 31.5 cm was the significant predictor for neonatal mortality with 83.3 % sensitivity and 0.43 % false negative predictive value. Conclusion: Using chest circumference with a cut-off point ≤ 31.5 cm is recommended as a single simple anthropometric measurement for the prediction of both LBW and neonatal mortality. The predicted measure could act as a substitute for weighting newborns in communities where scales to weigh them are not routinely available.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal mortality, anthropometric measures, practical screening

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Authors: Sitaram Dahal

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Sustainable Development, a universal need for the present generation and the future generation, is an accepted way to assure intra and inter-generational equity. International movements like Rio Earth Summit 1992, Stockholm Conference 1972, Kyoto Protocol, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proclaim the need of sustainable globe. The socio- economic disparity prevailing in the society shows that the indigenous peoples are living life far below poverty line. These indigenous people, aboriginal social groups sharing common cultural values and with a unique identity, are away from development being merely focused on the growth. Though studies suggest that most of the indigenous practices are often environment-friendly, alert about the plunging trend of the practices. This study explores the trend of intergenerational transmission of indigenous profession of pottery making of Kumal community (Meghauli Village Development Committee of Chitwan district) and factors affecting the trend. The SD indicators - contribution of IP to well-being of pottery makers had been query in the study. The study reveals that the pottery making profession can stand sustainable in terms of environment and socio-economic capital compared to modern technologies. However, the number of practitioners has been decreasing and youths hardly show interest to continue their indigenous profession. The new generations are not in a stage of accepting pottery in complete profession, that challenges the social and cultural sustainability of the profession. Indigenous profession demand people investments over modern technology and innovations. The relative investment of human labour is dramatically high with the indigenous profession. In addition, the fashion and innovations of market rule challenge the sustainability of the pottery making profession. The practice is limited to small cluster as a show piece at present. The study illustrates the market driven unsustainability of indigenous profession of Kumal community.

Keywords: professional unsustainability, pottery making, Kumal Community, Indigenous Professoin

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Authors: M. Radunovic

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Region of Southeastern Europe has a substantial energy resource potential and is witnessing an increasing rate of power and energy project investments. This comes as a result of countries harmonizing their legal framework and market regulations to conform the ones of European Union, enabling direct private investments. Funding in the power and energy market in this region originates from various resources and investment entities, including commercial and institutional ones. Risk anticipation and assessment is crucial to project success, especially given the long exploitation period of project in power and energy domain, as well as the wide range of stakeholders involved. This paper analyzes the possibility of combined application of tools used in total quality management and international financing institutions for project planning, execution and evaluation, with the goal of anticipating, assessing and minimizing the risks that might occur in the development and execution phase of a power and energy project in the market of southeastern Europe. History of successful project management and investments both in the industry and institutional sector provides sufficient experience, guidance and internationally adopted tools to provide proper project assessment for investments in power and energy. Business environment of southeastern Europe provides immense potential for developing power and engineering projects of various magnitudes, depending on stakeholders’ interest. Diversification on investment sources provides assurance that there is interest and commitment to invest in this market. Global economic and political developments will be intensifying the pace of investments in the upcoming period. The proposed approach accounts for key parameters that contribute to the sustainability and profitability of a project which include technological, educational, social and economic gaps between the southeastern European region and western Europe, market trends in equipment design and production on a global level, environment friendly approach to renewable energy sources as well as conventional power generation systems, and finally the effect of the One Belt One Road Initiative led by People’s Republic of China to the power and energy market of this region in the upcoming period on a long term scale. Analysis will outline the key benefits of the approach as well as the accompanying constraints. Parallel to this it will provide an overview of dominant threats and opportunities in present and future business environment and their influence to the proposed application. Through concrete examples, full potential of this approach will be presented along with necessary improvements that need to be implemented. Number of power and engineering projects being developed in southeastern Europe will be increasing in the upcoming period. Proper risk analysis will lead to minimizing project failures. The proposed successful combination of reliable project planning tools from different investment areas can prove to be beneficial in the future power and engineering investments, and guarantee their sustainability and profitability.

Keywords: capital investments, lean six sigma, logical framework approach, logical framework matrix, one belt one road initiative, project management tools, quality function deployment, Southeastern Europe, total quality management

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Authors: S. Archsana, Vajira Balasuriya

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In Trincomalee of Sri Lanka, a post-conflict area, resettlement projects and policy initiatives are taking place to improve the wealth of the rural communities through promoting economic activities by way of encouraging the rural women to opt to commence and operate Micro and Small Scale (MSS) businesses. This study attempts to identify the manner in which the institutional environment could facilitate these MSS businesses owned and operated by women in the rural environment. The respondents of this study are the beneficiaries of the Divi Neguma Development Training Program (DNDTP); a project designed to aid women owned MSS businesses, in Trincomalee district. 96 women business operators, who had obtained financing facilities from the DNDTP, are taken as the sample based on fixed interval random sampling method. The study reveals that primary challenges encountered by 82% of the women business operators are lack of initial capital followed by 71% initial market finding and 35% access to technology. The low level of education and language barriers are the constraints in accessing support agencies/service providers. Institutional support; specifically management and marketing services, have a significant relationship with wealth augmentation. Institutional support at the setting-up stage of businesses are thin whereas terms and conditions of the finance facilities are perceived as ‘too challenging’. Although diversification enhances wealth of the rural women business operators, assistance from the institutional framework to prepare financial reports that are required for business expansion is skinny. The study further reveals that institutional support is very much weak in terms of providing access to new technology and identifying new market networks. A mechanism that could facilitate the institutional framework to support the rural women business operators to access new technology and untapped market segments, and assistance in preparation of legal and financial documentation is recommended.

Keywords: business facilitation, institutional support, rural women business operators, wealth augmentation

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Authors: RuiJin Zhang, HengJiang Cai, JinSong Gui

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It takes Patinopecten yessoensis larvae more than 20 days from spawning to settlement. Due to the natural environmental factors such as current, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae are transported to a distance more than hundreds of kilometers, leading to a high instability of their spatial and temporal distribution and great difficulties in the natural spat collection. Therefore predicting the distribution is of great significance to improve the operating efficiency of the collecting. Hydrodynamic model of Northern China Yellow Sea was established and the motions equations of physical oceanography and verified by the tidal harmonic constants and the measured data velocities of Dalian Bay. According to the passivity drift characteristics of the larvae, combined with the hydrodynamic model and the particle tracking model, the spatial and temporal distribution prediction model was established and the spatial and temporal distribution of the larvae under the influence of flow and wind were simulated. It can be concluded from the model results: ocean currents have greatest impacts on the passive drift path and diffusion of Patinopecten yessoensis larvae; the impact of wind is also important, which changed the direction and speed of the drift. Patinopecten yessoensis larvae were generated in the sea along Zhangzi Island and Guanglu-Dachangshan Island, but after two months, with the impact of wind and currents, the larvae appeared in the west of Dalian and the southern of Lvshun, and even in Bohai Bay. The model results are consistent with the relevant literature on qualitative analysis, and this conclusion explains where the larvae come from in the perspective of numerical simulation.

Keywords: numerical simulation, Patinopecten yessoensis larvae, predicting model, spatial and temporal distribution

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Authors: Safaa H. Sindi, Michael Roe

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This project divides supply chain (SC) models into seven Eras, according to the evolution of the market’s needs throughout time. The five earliest Eras describe the emergence of supply chains, while the last two Eras are to be created. Research objectives: The aim is to generate the two latest Eras with their respective models that focus on the consumable goods. Era Six contains the Optimal Multidimensional Matrix (OMM) that incorporates most characteristics of the SC and allocates them into four quarters (Agile, Lean, Leagile, and Basic SC). This will help companies, especially (SMEs) plan their optimal SC route. Era Seven creates an Automated Multidimensional Model (AMM) which upgrades the matrix of Era six, as it accounts for all the supply chain factors (i.e. Offshoring, sourcing, risk) into an interactive system with Heuristic Learning that helps larger companies and industries to select the best SC model for their market. Methodologies: The data collection is based on a Fuzzy-Delphi study that analyses statements using Fuzzy Logic. The first round of Delphi study will contain statements (fuzzy rules) about the matrix of Era six. The second round of Delphi contains the feedback given from the first round and so on. Preliminary findings: both models are applicable, Matrix of Era six reduces the complexity of choosing the best SC model for SMEs by helping them identify the best strategy of Basic SC, Lean, Agile and Leagile SC; that’s tailored to their needs. The interactive heuristic learning in the AMM of Era seven will help mitigate error and aid large companies to identify and re-strategize the best SC model and distribution system for their market and commodity, hence increasing efficiency. Potential contributions to the literature: The problematic issue facing many companies is to decide which SC model or strategy to incorporate, due to the many models and definitions developed over the years. This research simplifies this by putting most definition in a template and most models in the Matrix of era six. This research is original as the division of SC into Eras, the Matrix of Era six (OMM) with Fuzzy-Delphi and Heuristic Learning in the AMM of Era seven provides a synergy of tools that were not combined before in the area of SC. Additionally the OMM of Era six is unique as it combines most characteristics of the SC, which is an original concept in itself.

Keywords: Leagile, automation, heuristic learning, supply chain models

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Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar

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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T_1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.

Keywords: collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method

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Authors: Salamah Ansari

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In absence of a comprehensive international legal regime for sovereign debt restructuring, majority of the complications arising from sovereign debt restructuring are frequently left to the uncertain market forces. The resort to market forces for sovereign debt restructuring has led to a phenomenal increase in litigations targeting assets of defaulting sovereign nations, internationally across jurisdictions with the first major wave of lawsuits against sovereigns in the 1980s with the Latin American crisis. Recent experiences substantiate that majority of obstacles faced during sovereign debt restructuring process are caused by inefficient creditor coordination and collective action problems. Collective action problems manifest as grab race, rush to exits, holdouts, the free rider problem and the rush to the courthouse. On defaulting, for a nation to successfully restructure its debt, all the creditors involved must accept some reduction in the value of their claims. As a single holdout creditor has the potential to undermine the restructuring process, hold-out creditors are snowballing with the increasing probability of earning high returns through litigations. This necessitates a mechanism to avoid holdout litigations and reinforce collective action on the part of the creditor. This can be done either through a statutory reform or through market-based contractual approach. In absence of an international sovereign bankruptcy regime, the impetus is mostly on inclusion of collective action clauses in debt contracts. The preference to contractual mechanisms vis- a vis a statutory approach can be explained with numerous reasons, but that's only part of the puzzle in trying to understand the economics of the underlying system. The contractual approach proposals advocate the inclusion of certain clauses in the debt contract for an orderly debt restructuring. These include clauses such as majority voting clauses, sharing clauses, non- acceleration clauses, initiation clauses, aggregation clauses, temporary stay on litigation clauses, priority financing clauses, and complete revelation of relevant information. However, voluntary market based contractual approach to debt workouts has its own complexities. It is a herculean task to enshrine clauses in debt contracts that are detailed enough to create an orderly debt restructuring mechanism while remaining attractive enough for creditors. Introduction of collective action clauses into debt contracts can reduce the barriers in efficient debt restructuring and also have the potential to improve the terms on which sovereigns are able to borrow. However, it should be borne in mind that such clauses are not a panacea to the huge institutional inadequacy that persists and may lead to worse restructuring outcomes.

Keywords: sovereign debt restructuring, collective action clauses, hold out creditors, litigations

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Authors: Husham Bayazed

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Immune responses following surgical trauma play a pivotal role in predicting postoperative outcomes from healing and recovery to postoperative complications. Postoperative complications, including infections and protracted recovery, occur in a significant number of about 300 million surgeries performed annually worldwide. Complications cause personal suffering along with a significant economic burden on the healthcare system in any community. The accurate prediction of postoperative complications and patient-targeted interventions for their prevention remain major clinical provocations. Recent Findings: Recent studies are focusing on immune dysregulation mechanisms that occur in response to surgical trauma as a key determinant of postoperative complications. Antecedent studies mainly were plunging into the detection of inflammatory plasma markers, which facilitate in providing important clues regarding their pathogenesis. However, recent Single-cell technologies, such as mass cytometry or single-cell RNA sequencing, have markedly enhanced our ability to understand the immunological basis of postoperative immunological trauma complications and to identify their prognostic biological signatures. Summary: The advent of proteomic technologies has significantly advanced our ability to predict the risk of postoperative complications. Multiomic modeling of patients' immune states holds promise for the discovery of preoperative predictive biomarkers and providing patients and surgeons with information to improve surgical outcomes. However, more studies are required to accurately predict the risk of postoperative complications in individual patients.

Keywords: immune dysregulation, postoperative complications, surgical trauma, flow cytometry

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Authors: Geng Xiangren, Liu Lei, Gui Ye-Wei, Tang Wei, Wang An-ling

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The malfunction of thermal protection system (TPS) caused by aerodynamic heating is a latent trouble to aircraft structure safety. Accurately predicting the structure temperature field is quite important for the TPS design of hypersonic vehicle. Since Thornton’s work in 1988, the coupled method of aerodynamic heating and heat transfer has developed rapidly. However, little attention has been paid to the influence of structural deformation on aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. In the flight, especially the long-endurance flight, the structural deformation, caused by the aerodynamic heating and temperature rise, has a direct impact on the aerodynamic heating and structural temperature field. Thus, the coupled interaction cannot be neglected. In this paper, based on the method of static aero-thermo-elasticity, considering the influence of aero-thermo-elasticity deformation, the aerodynamic heating and heat transfer coupled results of hypersonic vehicle wing model were calculated. The results show that, for the low-curvature region, such as fuselage or center-section wing, structure deformation has little effect on temperature field. However, for the stagnation region with high curvature, the coupled effect is not negligible. Thus, it is quite important for the structure temperature prediction to take into account the effect of elastic deformation. This work has laid a solid foundation for improving the prediction accuracy of the temperature distribution of aircraft structures and the evaluation capacity of structural performance.

Keywords: aerothermoelasticity, elastic deformation, structural temperature, multi-field coupling

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Authors: Vesna Lukovic

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Online platforms as new business models play an important role in today’s economy and the functioning of the EU’s internal market. In the travel industry, algorithms used by online platforms for short-stay accommodation provide suggestions and price information to travelers. Those suggestions and recommendations are displayed in search results via recommendation (ranking) systems. There has been a growing consensus that the current legal framework was not sufficient to resolve problems arising from platform practices. In order to enhance the potential of the EU’s Single Market, smaller businesses should be protected, and their rights strengthened vis-à-vis large online platforms. The Regulation (EU) 2019/1150 of the European Parliament and of the Council on promoting fairness and transparency for business users of online intermediation services aims to level the playing field in that respect. This research looks at Airbnb through the lenses of this regulation. The research explores key determinants and finds that although regulation is an important step in the right direction, it is not enough. It does not entail sufficient clarity obligations that would make online platforms an intermediary service which both accommodation providers and travelers could use with ease.

Keywords: algorithm, online platforms, ranking, consumers, EU regulation

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Authors: Rusne Kregzdaite

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The value of the cultural sector stems from the symbolic exploration that differentiates cultural organisations from other product or service organisations. As a result, the cultural sector has a dual impact on the socio-economic system: the economic value (expressed in terms of market relations) created influences the dynamics of the country's financial indicators, while the cultural (non-market) value indirectly contributes to the welfare of the state through changes in societal values, creativity transformations and cultural needs of the country. Measurement of indirect (cultural value) impacts is difficult, but in the case of the cultural sector (especially when it comes to economically inefficient state-funded culture), it helps to reveal the essential characteristics of the sector. The study aims to analyze the value of cultural organisations that are invisible in market processes and to base it on quantified calculations. This was be done by analyzing the usefulness of the consumer, incorporating not only the price paid but also the social and cultural decision-making factors that determine the spectator's choice (time dedicated for a visit, additional costs, content, previous experiences, corporate image). This may reflect the consumer's real choice to consume (all the costs he incurs may be considered the financial equivalent of his experience with the cultural establishment). The research methodology was tested by analyzing the performing arts sector and applying methods to the Lithuanian national drama theatre case. The empirical research consisted of a survey (more than 800 participants) of Lithuanian national drama theatre visitors to different performances. The willingness to pay and travel costs methods were used. Analysis of different performances lets identifies the factor that increases willingness to pay for the performance and affects theatre attendance. The research stresses the importance of cultural value and social perspective of the cultural sector and relates it to the discussions of public funding of culture.

Keywords: cultural economics, performing arts, willingness to pay, travel cost analysis, performing arts management

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Authors: Yu-Chen Wei, Yang-Cheng Lu, I-Chi Lin

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This study examines the impacts of news sentiment and press freedom on abnormal returns during the earnings announcement in greater China including the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Taiwan stock markets. The news sentiment ratio is calculated by using the content analysis of semantic orientation. The empirical results show that news released prior to the event date may decrease the cumulative abnormal returns prior to the earnings announcement regardless of whether it is released in China or Taiwan. By contrast, companies with optimistic financial news may increase the cumulative abnormal returns during the announcement date. Furthermore, the difference in terms of press freedom is considered in greater China to compare the impact of press freedom on abnormal returns. The findings show that, the freer the press is, the more negatively significant will be the impact of news on the abnormal returns, which means that the press freedom may decrease the ability of the news to impact the abnormal returns. The intuition is that investors may receive alternative news related to each company in the market with greater press freedom, which proves the efficiency of the market and reduces the possible excess returns.

Keywords: news, press freedom, Greater China, earnings announcement, abnormal returns

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Authors: J. Cadby, K. Miyazawa

Abstract:

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has been widely adopted into the agricultural landscape with advancements of mobile connectivity and data accessibility. In developed nations, mobile-technology is well integrated into marketing transactions, and also plays a crucial role in making data-driven decisions on-farm. In developing nations, mobile banking and access to agricultural extension services allow for informed decision-making and smoother transactions. In addition, the availability of updated and readily available market and climate data provides a negotiation platform, reducing economic risks for farmers worldwide. The total usage of mobile technology has risen over the past 20 years, and almost three-quarters of the world’s population subscribes to mobile technology. This study reviewed mobile technology integration into agricultural systems in developing and developed nations. Data from secondary sources were collected and investigated. The objectives of the study include a review of the success of mobile banking transactions in developing nations, and a review of application and SMS based services for direct marketing in both developed and developing nations. Rural farmers in developing countries with access to diverse m-banking options experienced increased access to farm investment resources with the use of mobile banking technology. Rural farmers involved in perishable crop production were also more likely to benefit from mobile platform sales participation. ICT programs reached through mobile application and SMS increased access to agricultural extension materials and marketing tools for demographics that faced literacy-challenges and isolated markets. As mobile technology becomes more ubiquitous in the global agricultural system, training and market opportunities to facilitate mobile usage in developing agricultural systems are necessary. Digital skills training programs are necessary in order to improve equal global adoption of ICT in agriculture.

Keywords: market participation, mobile banking, mobile technology, rural farming

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Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

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A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

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Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

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Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

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Authors: Derya Güler Aydin, Bahar Araz Takay

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Two different forms of competition theories can be distinguished: Those theories that emphasize the equilibrating forces created by competition, and those emphasizing the disequilibrating forces. This difference can be attributed, among other things, to the differences regarding the functioning of the market economy; that is to say, the basic problem here is whether competition should be understood as a static state or a dynamic process. This study aims to analyze the dynamic competition theories by K. Marx and J. A. Schumpeter and neo- Schumperians all of which focus on the dynamic role played by competition through creating disequilibria, endogenous structural change and social transformation as a distinguishing characteristic of the market system. With this aim, in the first section, after examining the static, neoclassical competition theory, both Marx‟s theory, which is based on profit rate differentials, and Schumpeter‟s theory, which is based on the notion of “creative destruction”, will be discussed. In the second section, the long-term fluctuations, based on creative gales of destruction, the concept will be examined under the framework of techno-economic paradigm. It is argued that the dynamic, even disequilibrium tendencies created by the competition process should be regarded in both understanding the working of capitalism and social transformation of the system.

Keywords: competition, techno-enomic paradigm, Schumpeter, social evolution

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Authors: Noor Hasmini Abd Ghani

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Brand resonance is among of new focused strategy that getting more attention in nowadays by larger companies for their long-term market survival. The brand resonance emphasizing of two main characteristics that are intensity and activity able to generate psychology bond and enduring relationship between a brand and consumer. This strong attachment relationship has represented brand resonance with the concept of consumer brand relationship (CBR) that exhibit competitive advantage for long-term market survival. The main consideration toward this brand resonance approach is not only in the context of larger companies but also can be adapted in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as well. The SMEs have been recognized as vital pillar to the world economy in both developed and emergence countries are undeniable due to their economic growth contributions, such as opportunity for employment, wealth creation, and poverty reduction. In particular, the facts that SMEs in Malaysia are pivotal to the well-being of the Malaysian economy and society are clearly justified, where the SMEs competent in provided jobs to 66% of the workforce and contributed 40% to the GDP. As regards to it several sectors, the SMEs service category that covers the Food & Beverage (F&B) sector is one of the high-potential industries in Malaysia. For that reasons, SMEs strong brand or brand equity is vital to be developed for their long-term market survival. However, there’s still less appropriate strategies in develop their brand equity. The difficulties have never been so evident until Covid-19 swept across the globe from 2020. Since the pandemic began, more than 150,000 SMEs in Malaysia have shut down, leaving more than 1.2 million people jobless. Otherwise, as the SMEs are the pillar of any economy for the countries in the world, and with negative effect of COVID-19 toward their economic growth, thus, their protection has become important more than ever. Therefore, focusing on strategy that able to develop SMEs strong brand is compulsory. Hence, this is where the strategy of brand resonance is introduced in this study. Mainly, this study aims to investigate the impact of CBR as a predictor and mediator in the context of social media marketing (SMM) activities toward SMEs e-brand equity (or strong brand) building. The study employed the quantitative research design concerning on electronic survey method with the valid response rate of 300 respondents. Interestingly, the result revealed the importance role of CBR either as predictor or mediator in the context of SMEs SMM as well as brand equity development. Further, the study provided several theoretical and practical implications that can benefit the SMEs in enhancing their strategic marketing decision.

Keywords: SME brand equity, SME social media marketing, SME consumer brand relationship, SME brand resonance

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Authors: K. Lalhmingsangi, U. K. Sahoo

Abstract:

Non-Timber Forest Products represent one of the key sources of income and subsistence to the fringe communities living in rural areas. A study was conducted for the assessment of NTFP within the community forest of five villages under Thenzawl forest division. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), questionnaire, field exercise, discussion and interview with the first hand NTFP exploiter and sellers was adopted for the field study. Fuel wood, medicinal plants, fodder, wild vegetables, fruits, broom grass, thatch grass, bamboo pole and cane species are the main NTFP harvested from the community forest. Among all the NTFPs, the highest percentage of household involvement was found in fuel wood, i.e. 53% of household and least in medicinal plants 5%. They harvest for their own consumption as well as for selling to the market to meet their needs. Edible food and fruits are sold to the market and it was estimated that 300 (Rs/hh/yr) was earned by each household through the selling of this NTFP from the community forest alone. No marketing channels are linked with fuelwood, medicinal plants and fodder since they harvest only for their own consumption.

Keywords: community forest, subsistence, non-timber forest products, Thenzawl Forest Division

Procedia PDF Downloads 147