Search results for: uncertainty evaluation

Authors: Osamu Komori, Shinto Eguchi, Hiroshi Okamura, Momoko Ichinokawa

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The long time-series data on population assessments are essential for global ecosystem assessment because the temporal change of biomass in such a database reflects the status of global ecosystem properly. However, the available assessment data usually have limited sample sizes and the ratio of populations with low abundance of biomass (collapsed) to those with high abundance (non-collapsed) is highly imbalanced. To allow for the imbalance and uncertainty involved in the ecological data, we propose a binary regression model with mixed effects for inferring ecosystem status through an asymmetric logistic model. In the estimation equation, we observe that the weights for the non-collapsed populations are relatively reduced, which in turn puts more importance on the small number of observations of collapsed populations. Moreover, we extend the asymmetric logistic regression model using propensity score to allow for the sample biases observed in the labeled and unlabeled datasets. It robustified the estimation procedure and improved the model fitting.

Keywords: double robust estimation, ecological binary data, mixed effect logistic regression model, propensity score

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Galuh Asri Bestari, Hajar Shofiyya

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Double burden of malnutrition (DBM) has been a global problem in these last decades occurs in both developed and developing countries. Overweight in adults and stunting among preschool children have dramatically increased and become the main problems of malnutrition that should be solved immediately since they are directly related with the health status and productivity. Reformulation of food product by using the local sea resources called terasi shrimp (Acetes indicus) has a potential possibility in facing the DBM. A study was carried out in Indonesia to determine the acceptability of terasi shrimp powder through sensory evaluation. Terasi shrimps were processed into powder form through sun drying and pounding methods. The powder form was directly added in food as alternative seasonings and tested among stunted and normal preschool children. Meanwhile, a further processing method is given to the shrimp powder tested in overweight and normal-weighed adults. The shrimp powder was mixed with sago flour and formed into balls, then steamed for 15-20 minutes, and finally served as alternative snacks. Based on the sensory evaluation, the shrimp powder has a good acceptance in taste (54%), shape (60%), and color properties (63%), while the shrimp balls has a good acceptance in size (65%), shape (50%), color (48%), taste (40%), and texture (36%). Terasi shrimp powder can be stored for a month in room temperature. In addition, carried out chemical analysis revealed that terasi shrimp (Acetes indicus) has higher percentage of protein, calcium, and iron than other animal sources, but conversely contains zero sodium and very low percentage of fat. Terasi shrimp’s shell also contains a substance called chitosan which acts by forming gels in the intestinal tract to entrap lipids, thus interfering with their absorption. After going through some processing methods, the shrimp powder and balls did not show any significant changes in their nutrient contents. So that, terasi shrimp powder is good to be consumed not only by overweight adults, but also by children to support their optimum growth. Intervention of terasi shrimp powder should be implemented step by step from national up to global governance program to face the DBM.

Keywords: Acetes indicus, alternative food, double burden of malnutrition, sensory evaluation

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Authors: Sridhar S, Govinda Raj Mandela, Aruna Mangalpady

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In the present day scenario, Indian underground mines are moving towards full scale mechanisation for improvement of production and productivity levels. These mines are employing a wide variety of earth moving machines for the transportation of ore and overburden (waste). Low Profile Dump Trucks (LPDTs) have proven more advantageous towards improvement of production levels in underground mines through quick transportation. During the operation of LPDT, different kinds of vibrations are generated which can affect the health condition of the operator. Keeping this in view, the present research work focuses on measurement and evaluation of Hand Arm Vibrations (HAVs) from the steering system of LPDTs. The study also aims to evaluate the HAVs of different job components of a work cycle in operating LPDTs. The HAVs were measured and evaluated according to ISO 5349-2: 2001 standards, and the daily vibration exposures A(8) were calculated. The evaluated A(8) results show that LPDTs of 60 and 50 tons capacity have vibration levels more than that of the Exposure Action Value (EAV) of 2.5 m/s2 in every job component of the work cycle. Further, the results show that the vibration levels were more during empty haulage especially during descending journey when compared to other job components in all LPDTs considered for the study.

Keywords: low profile dump trucks, hand arm vibrations, exposure action value, underground mines

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Authors: Hasan Kalyoncu, Füsun Kılçık, Hatice Gülboy Akyıldırım, Aynur Özen, Mehmet Acar, Nur Yoluk

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For evaluation of water quality of the river systems in Antalya Basin, macrozoobenthos samples were taken from 22 determined stations by a hand net and identified at family level. Water quality of Antalya Basin was determined according to Biological Monitoring Working Party (BMWP) system, by using macrozoobenthic invertebrates and physicochemical parameters. As a result of the evaluation, while Aksu Stream was determined as the most polluted stream in Antalya Basin, Isparta Stream was determined as the most polluted tributary of Aksu Stream. Pollution level of the Isparta Stream was determined as quality class V and it is the extremely polluted part of stream. Pollution loads at the sources of the streams were determined in low levels in general. Due to some parts of the streams have passed through deep canyons and take their sources from nonresidential and non-arable regions, majority of the streams that take place in Antalya Basin are at high quality level. Waste water, which comes from agricultural and residential regions, affects the lower basins of the streams. Because of the waste water, lower parts of the stream basins exposed to the pollution under anthropogenic effects. However, in Aksu Stream, which differs by being exposed to domestic and industrial wastes of Isparta City, extreme pollution was determined, particularly in the Isparta Stream part.

Keywords: Antalya basin, biomonitoring, BMWP, water quality

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Authors: Mohamed El Kory Yacoub, Ahmed Bezeid El Mamy Beyatt, Djibril Barry, Yanogo Pauline, Nicolas Meda

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Introduction: Rift Valley Fever is a zoonotic arbovirosis that severely affects ruminants, as well as humans. It causes abortions in pregnant females and deaths in young animals. The disease occurs during heavy rains followed by large numbers of mosquito vectors. The objective of this work is to evaluate the surveillance system for Rift Valley Fever. Methods: We conducted an evaluation of the Rift Valley Fiver surveillance system. Data were collected from the analysis of the national database of the Mauritanian Network of Animal Disease Epidemiological Surveillance at the Ministry of Rural Development, of RVF cases notified from the whole national territory, of questionnaires and interviews with all persons involved in RVF surveillance at the central level. The quality of the system was assessed by analyzing the quantitative attributes defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results: In 2019, 443 cases of RVF were notified by the surveillance system, of which 36 were positive. Among the notified cases of Rift Valley Fever, the 0- to the 3-year-old age group of small ruminants was the most represented with 49.21% of cases, followed by 33.33%, which was recorded in large ruminants in the 0 to 7-year-old age group, 11.11% of cases were older than seven years. The completeness of the data varied between 14.2% (age) and 100% (species). Most positive cases were recorded between October and November 2019 in seven different regions. Attribute analysis showed that 87% of the respondents were able to use the case definition well, and 78.8% said they were familiar with the reporting and feedback loop of the Rift Valley Fever data. 90.3% of the respondents found it easy, while 95% of them responded that it was easy for them to transmit their data to the next level. Conclusions: The epidemiological surveillance system for Rift Valley Fever in Mauritania is simple and representative. However, data quality, stability, and responsiveness are average, as the diagnosis of the disease requires laboratory confirmation and the average delay for this confirmation is long (13 days). Consequently, the lack of completeness of the recorded data and of description of cases in terms of time-place-animal, associated with the delay between the stages of the surveillance system can make prevention, early detection of epidemics, and the initiation of measures for an adequate response difficult.

Keywords: evaluation, epidemiological surveillance system, rift valley fever, mauritania, ruminants

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Authors: Mohamed H. Sorour, Hayam F. Shaalan, Heba A. Hani, Eman S. Sayed

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Ion exchange adsorption has a long standing history of success for seawater softening and selective ion removal from saline sources. Strong, weak and mixed types ion exchange systems could be designed and optimized for target separation. In this paper, different types of adsorbents comprising zeolite 13X and kaolin, in addition to, poly acrylate/zeolite (AZ), poly acrylate/kaolin (AK) and stand-alone poly acrylate (A) hydrogel types were prepared via microwave (M) and ultrasonic (U) irradiation techniques. They were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The developed adsorbents were evaluated on bench scale level and based on assessment results, a composite bed has been formulated for performance evaluation in pilot scale column investigations. Owing to the hydrogel nature of the partially crosslinked poly acrylate, the developed adsorbents manifested a swelling capacity of about 50 g/g. The pilot trials have been carried out using magnesium enriched Red Seawater to simulate Red Seawater desalination brine. Batch studies indicated varying uptake efficiencies, where Mg adsorption decreases according to the following prepared hydrogel types AU>AM>AKM>AKU>AZM>AZU, being 108, 107, 78, 69, 66 and 63 mg/g, respectively. Composite bed adsorbent tested in the up-flow mode column studies indicated good performance for Mg uptake. For an operating cycle of 12 h, the maximum uptake during the loading cycle approached 92.5-100 mg/g, which is comparable to the performance of some commercial resins. Different regenerants have been explored to maximize regeneration and minimize the quantity of regenerants including 15% NaCl, 0.1 M HCl and sodium carbonate. Best results were obtained by acidified sodium chloride solution. In conclusion, developed cation exchange adsorbents comprising clay or zeolite support indicated adequate performance for Mg recovery under saline environment. Column design operated at the up-flow mode (approaching expanded bed) is appropriate for such type of separation. Preliminary cost indicators for Mg recovery via ion exchange have been developed and analyzed.

Keywords: batch and dynamic magnesium separation, seawater, polyacrylate hydrogel, cost evaluation

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Authors: Seung Oh, Satoshi Okada

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This study is information-intensive research that provides insight from the factual history, social perception, and robust ideas derived from the social conflict in the most progressively thriving district in the world, Times Square. The case study provides the socio-environmental setup since the Inceptive Point of the development, the Great Depression, the history archives, and evaluation based on the master-level journals as standard. The Great Depression invited macro-sized changes, including financial systems, to raise fluidity by gutting off the debt limit by the gold value, organizing the labor, and social problems in the major cities. The locality of Times Square was implemented by the socio-political changes, overturning ownerships of properties, including theaters, delocalizing tourism, and re-entering the labors with organizations through infrastructure projects and civil activities for minorities and preservations amid the progressive developments over time. Naturally, chasing the media for factual research before and after Inceptive Points. Times Square is understood not just the ‘tower with subway’ progression but also social conflicts raised for adjustment for civil rights, preservations, and progression to deliver the environmental background to trigger the 42nd Street Development (42DP) in the 1990s.

Keywords: development, district, progressive, preservation, social conflict, value chasing

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Authors: Berna Eren Tokgoz, Mahdi Safa, Seokyon Hwang

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Power distribution systems are essential and crucial infrastructures for the development and maintenance of a sustainable society. These systems are extremely vulnerable to various types of natural and man-made disasters. The assessment of resilience focuses on preparedness and mitigation actions under pre-disaster conditions. It also concentrates on response and recovery actions under post-disaster situations. The aim of this study is to present a methodology to assess the resilience of electric power distribution poles against wind-related events. The proposed methodology can improve the accuracy and rapidity of the evaluation of the conditions and the assessment of the resilience of poles. The methodology provides a metric for the evaluation of the resilience of poles under pre-disaster and post-disaster conditions. The metric was developed using mathematical expressions for physical forces that involve various variables, such as physical dimensions of the pole, the inclination of the pole, and wind speed. A three-dimensional imaging technology (photogrammetry) was used to determine the inclination of poles. Based on expert opinion, the proposed metric was used to define zones to visualize resilience. Visual representation of resilience is helpful for decision makers to prioritize their resources before and after experiencing a wind-related disaster. Multiple electric poles in the City of Beaumont, TX were used in a case study to evaluate the proposed methodology.  

Keywords: photogrammetry, power distribution systems, resilience metric, system resilience, wind-related disasters

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Authors: Y. Sarı Nayim, B. N. Nayim

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This research proposal includes the defining and evaluation of the semi-natural and cultural ecosystems at Bartın University main campus in Turkey in terms of landscape mosaics. The ecosystem mosaic of the main campus was divided into zones based on ecological classification technique. Based on the results from the study, it was found that 6 different ecosystem mosaics should be used as a base in the planning and design of the existing and future landscape planning of Kutlubeyyazıcılar campus. The first landscape zone involves the 'social areas'. These areas include yards, dining areas, recreational areas and lawn areas. The second landscape zone is 'main vehicle and pedestrian areas'. These areas include vehicle access to the campus landscape, moving in the campus with vehicles, parking and pedestrian walk ways. The third zone is 'landscape areas with high visual landscape quality'. These areas will be the places where attractive structural and plant landscape elements will be used. Fourth zone will be 'landscapes of building borders and their surroundings.' The fifth and important zone that should be survived in the future is 'Actual semi-natural forest and bush areas'. And the last zone is 'water landscape' which brings ecological value to landscape areas. While determining the most convenient areas in the planning and design of the campus, these landscape mosaics should be taken into consideration. This zoning will ensure that the campus landscape is protected and living spaces in the campus apart from the areas where human activities are carried out will be used properly.

Keywords: campus landscape planning and design, landscape ecology, landscape mosaics, Bartın

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Authors: Yu-Chieh Chen, Kuei-Feng Shen, Chia-Ling Chao

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The purpose of this report was to present the nursing experience and case of an unexpected cerebellar hemorrhagic stroke with acute hydrocephalus patient after lumbar spine surgery. The patient had been suffering from an emergent external ventricular drainage and stayed in the Surgical Intensive Care Unit from July 8, 2016, to July 22, 2016. During the period of the case, the data were collected for attendance, evaluation, observation, interview, searching medical record, etc. An integral evaluation of the patient's physiological 'psychological' social and spiritual states was also noted. The author noticed the following major nursing problems including ineffective cerebral perfusion 'physical activity dysfunction' family resource preparation for disability. The author provided nursing care to maintain normal intracranial pressure, along with a well-therapeutic relationship and applied interdisciplinary medical/nursing team to draft an individualized and appropriate nursing plan for them to face the psychosocial impact of the patient disabilities. We also actively participated in the rehabilitation treatments to improve daily activity and confidence. This was deemed necessary to empower them to a more positive attitude in the future.

Keywords: family resourace preparation inability, hemorrhagic sroke, ineffective tissue cerebral perfusion, lumbar spine surgery

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Authors: Dongjoo Chin

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of an Early Intensive Behavioral Intervention (EIBI) program on infants with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and to explore the factors predicting the effectiveness of the program, focusing on the infant's age, language ability, problem behaviors, and parental stress. 19 pairs of infants aged between 2 and 5 years who have had been diagnosed with ASD, and their parents participated in an EIBI program at a clinic providing evidence-based treatment based on applied behavior analysis. The measurement tools which were administered before and after the EIBI program and compared, included PEP-R, a curriculum evaluation, K-SIB-R, K-Vineland-II, K-CBCL, and PedsQL for the infants, and included PSI-SF and BDI-II for the parents. Statistical analysis was performed using a sample t-test and multiple regression analysis and the results were as follows. The EIBI program showed significant improvements in overall developmental age, curriculum assessment, and quality of life for infants. There was no difference in parenting stress or depression. Furthermore, measures for both children and parents at the start of the program predicted neither PEP-R nor the degree of improvement in curriculum evaluation measured six months later at the end of the program. Based on these results, the authors suggest future directions for developing an effective intensive early intervention (EIBI) program for infants with ASD in Korea, and discuss the implications and limitations of this study.

Keywords: applied behavior analysis, autism spectrum disorder, early intensive behavioral intervention, parental stress

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Authors: M. A. Wanzala, L. A. Ogallo, F. J. Opijah, J. N. Mutemi

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The usefulness and limitations in climate information are due to uncertainty inherent in the climate system. For any given region to have sustainable development it is important to apply climate information into its socio-economic strategic plans. The overall objective of the study was to assess the performance of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over the Lake Victoria Basin. The datasets used included the observed point station data, gridded rainfall data from Climate Research Unit (CRU) and hindcast data from eight CMIP5. The methodology included trend analysis, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) regression analysis, and categorical statistical skill score. Analysis of the trends in the observed rainfall records indicated an increase in rainfall variability both in space and time for all the seasons. The spatial patterns of the individual models output from the models of MPI, MIROC, EC-EARTH and CNRM were closest to the observed rainfall patterns.

Keywords: categorical statistics, coupled model inter-comparison project, principal component analysis, statistical downscaling

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Authors: Stephan Schiffer, Andreas Kain, Philipp Wilde, Maximilian Helbing, Bernard Bäker

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Automobile manufacturers progressively focus on a downsizing strategy to meet the EU's CO2 requirements concerning type-approval consumption cycles. The reduction in naturally aspirated engine power is compensated by increased levels of turbocharging. By downsizing conventional engines, CO2 emissions are reduced. However, it also implicates major challenges regarding longitudinal dynamic characteristics. An example of this circumstance is the delayed turbocharger-induced torque reaction which leads to a partially poor response behavior of the vehicle during acceleration operations. That is why it is important to focus conventional drive train design on real customer driving again. The currently considered dynamic maneuvers like the acceleration time 0-100 km/h discussed by journals and car manufacturers describe longitudinal dynamics experienced by a driver inadequately. For that reason we present the realization and evaluation of a comprehensive proband study. Subjects are provided with different vehicle concepts (electrified vehicles, vehicles with naturally aspired engines and vehicles with different concepts of turbochargers etc.) in order to find out which dynamic criteria are decisive for a subjectively strong acceleration and response behavior of a vehicle. Subsequently, realistic acceleration criteria are derived. By weighing the criteria an evaluation metric is developed to objectify customer-oriented transient dynamics. Fully-electrified vehicles are the benchmark in terms of customer-oriented longitudinal dynamics. The electric machine provides the desired torque almost without delay. This advantage compared to combustion engines is especially noticeable at low engine speeds. In conclusion, we will show the degree to which extent customer-relevant longitudinal dynamics of conventional vehicles can be approximated to electrified vehicle concepts. Therefore, various technical measures (turbocharger concepts, 48V electrical chargers etc.) and drive train designs (e.g. varying the final drive) are presented and evaluated in order to strengthen the vehicle’s customer-relevant transient dynamics. As a rating size the newly developed evaluation metric will be used.

Keywords: 48V, customer-oriented driving dynamics, electric charger, electrified vehicles, vehicle concepts

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Authors: A. M. Raseona, D. M. Barry, T. L. Nedambale

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Preservation of semen is an important process to ensure that semen quality is sufficient for assisted reproductive technology. This study evaluated the effectiveness of different extenders to preserve Nguni bull semen stored at controlled room temperature 24 °C for three days, as an alternative to frozen-thawed semen straws used for artificial insemination. Semen samples were collected from two Nguni bulls using an electro-ejaculator and transported to the laboratory for evaluation. Pooled semen was aliquot into three extenders Triladyl, Ham’s F10 and M199 at a dilution ratio of 1:4 then stored at controlled room temperature 24 °C. Sperm motility was analysed after 0, 24, 48 and 72 hours. Morphology and viability were analysed after 72 hours. The study was replicated four times and data was analysed by analysis of variance (ANOVA). Triladyl showed higher viability percentage and consistent total motility for three days. Ham’s F10 showed higher progressive motility compared to the other extenders. There was no significant difference in viability between Ham’s F10 and M199. No significant difference was also observed in total abnormality between the two Nguni bulls. In conclusion, Nguni semen can be preserved in Triladyl or Ham’s F10 and M199 culture media stored at 24 °C and stay alive for three days. Triladyl proved to be the best extender showing high viability and consistency in total motility as compared to Ham’s F10 and M199.

Keywords: bull semen, artificial insemination, Triladyl, Ham’s F10, M199, viability

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Authors: Yas Barzegar, Atrin Barzegar

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Drinking water quality assessment is a major issue today; technology and practices are continuously improving; Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods prove their efficiency in this domain. The current research seeks a hierarchical fuzzy model for predicting drinking water quality in Rome (Italy). The Mamdani fuzzy inference system (FIS) is applied with different defuzzification methods. The Proposed Model includes three fuzzy intermediate models and one fuzzy final model. Each fuzzy model consists of three input parameters and 27 fuzzy rules. The model is developed for water quality assessment with a dataset considering nine parameters (Alkalinity, Hardness, pH, Ca, Mg, Fluoride, Sulphate, Nitrates, and Iron). Fuzzy-logic-based methods have been demonstrated to be appropriate to address uncertainty and subjectivity in drinking water quality assessment; it is an effective method for managing complicated, uncertain water systems and predicting drinking water quality. The FIS method can provide an effective solution to complex systems; this method can be modified easily to improve performance.

Keywords: water quality, fuzzy logic, smart cities, water attribute, fuzzy inference system, membership function

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Authors: Youngmok Yun, Bosung Kim, Sungho Lee, Kyeongsu Jeon, Hyunwook Hwangbo, Byounggun Choi

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A betavoltaic battery converts nuclear energy released as beta particles (β-) directly into electrical energy. Betavoltaic cells are analogous to photovoltaic cells. The beta particle’s kinetic energy enters a p-n junction and creates electron-hole pairs. Subsequently, the built-in potential of the p-n junction accelerates the electrons and ions to their respective collectors. The major challenges are electrical conversion efficiencies and exact evaluation. In this study, the performance of betavoltaic battery was evaluated. The betavoltaic cell was evaluated in the same condition as radiation from radioactive isotope using by FE-SEM(field emission scanning electron microscope). The average energy of the radiation emitted from the Ni-63 radioisotope is 17.42 keV. FE-SEM is capable of emitting an electron beam of 1-30keV. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate betavoltaic cell without radioactive isotopes. The betavoltaic battery consists of radioisotope that is physically connected on the surface of Si-based PN diode. The performance of betavoltaic battery can be estimated by the efficiency of PN diode unit cell. The current generated by scanning electron microscope with fixed accelerating voltage (17keV) was measured by using faraday cup. Electrical characterization of the p-n junction diode was performed by using Nano Probe Work Station and I-V measurement system. The output value of the betavoltaic cells developed by this research team was 0.162 μw/cm2 and the efficiency was 1.14%.

Keywords: betavoltaic, nuclear, battery, Ni-63, radio-isotope

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Authors: Sofia N. Gonçalves, Duarte M. S. Albuquerque, José C. F. Pereira

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Microwave technology has been gaining importance in contributing to decarbonization processes in high energy demand industries. Despite the several numerical models presented in the literature, a proper Verification and Validation exercise is still lacking. This is important and required to evaluate the physical process model accuracy and adequacy. Another issue addresses impedance matching, which is an important mechanism used in microwave experiments to increase electromagnetic efficiency. Such mechanism is not available in current computational tools, thus requiring an external numerical procedure. A numerical model was implemented to study the continuous processing of limestone with microwave heating. This process requires the material to be heated until a certain temperature that will prompt a highly endothermic reaction. Both a 2D and 3D model were built in COMSOL Multiphysics to solve the two-way coupling between Maxwell and Energy equations, along with the coupling between both heat transfer phenomena and limestone endothermic reaction. The 2D model was used to study and evaluate the required numerical procedure, being also a benchmark test, allowing other authors to implement impedance matching procedures. To achieve this goal, a controller built in MATLAB was used to continuously matching the cavity impedance and predicting the required energy for the system, thus successfully avoiding energy inefficiencies. The 3D model reproduces realistic results and therefore supports the main conclusions of this work. Limestone was modeled as a continuous flow under the transport of concentrated species, whose material and kinetics properties were taken from literature. Verification and Validation of the coupled model was taken separately from the chemical kinetic model. The chemical kinetic model was found to correctly describe the chosen kinetic equation by comparing numerical results with experimental data. A solution verification was made for the electromagnetic interface, where second order and fourth order accurate schemes were found for linear and quadratic elements, respectively, with numerical uncertainty lower than 0.03%. Regarding the coupled model, it was demonstrated that the numerical error would diverge for the heat transfer interface with the mapped mesh. Results showed numerical stability for the triangular mesh, and the numerical uncertainty was less than 0.1%. This study evaluated limestone velocity, heat transfer, and load influence on thermal decomposition and overall process efficiency. The velocity and heat transfer coefficient were studied with the 2D model, while different loads of material were studied with the 3D model. Both models demonstrated to be highly unstable when solving non-linear temperature distributions. High velocity flows exhibited propensity to thermal runways, and the thermal efficiency showed the tendency to stabilize for the higher velocities and higher filling ratio. Microwave efficiency denoted an optimal velocity for each heat transfer coefficient, pointing out that electromagnetic efficiency is a consequence of energy distribution uniformity. The 3D results indicated the inefficient development of the electric field for low filling ratios. Thermal efficiencies higher than 90% were found for the higher loads and microwave efficiencies up to 75% were accomplished. The 80% fill ratio was demonstrated to be the optimal load with an associated global efficiency of 70%.

Keywords: multiphysics modeling, microwave heating, verification and validation, endothermic reactions modeling, impedance matching, limestone continuous processing

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Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Raufu Olusola Sanusi

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This study determined the perceived effect of livelihood diversification on welfare of rural household in Niger state, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was adopted for sampling the respondents. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source. Structured questionnaire with interview schedule was administered to 180 randomly selected rural farmers in the study area. Descriptive statistics analysis and z-test statistics were used to analyse the data collected. The study revealed the mean age of the household to be 43 years, mean years of schooling was 8.5, mean household size was 6 people, mean farming experience of 17.5 years and mean farm size of 1.8 hectares. The effect of livelihood diversification revealed that livelihood diversification had positive and significant effect on food security (65.6%) and income generation (66.8%) in the study area. The major constraints to diversification in the study area were poor infrastructure, unavailability of credit and climatic risk and uncertainty. The study, therefore, recommended that rural household should be sensitised to diversify their income source into non-farm activities.

Keywords: income, livelihood diversification , rural household, welfare

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Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Sheng-Shing Nien

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This study aims to develop approaches to formulate intuitionistic fuzzy regression (IFR) models for many decision-making applications in the fuzzy environments using intuitionistic fuzzy observations. Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) are used to characterize the fuzzy input and output variables in the IFR formulation processes. A mathematical programming problem (MPP) is built up to optimally determine the IFR parameters. Each parameter in the MPP is defined as a couple of alternative numerical variables with opposite signs, and an intuitionistic fuzzy error term is added to the MPP to characterize the uncertainty of the model. The IFR model is formulated based on the distance measure to minimize the total distance errors between estimated and observed intuitionistic fuzzy responses in the MPP resolution processes. The proposed approaches are simple/efficient in the formulation/resolution processes, in which the sign of parameters can be determined so that the problem to predetermine the sign of parameters is avoided. Furthermore, the proposed approach has the advantage that the spread of the predicted IFN response will not be over-increased, since the parameters in the established IFR model are crisp. The performance of the obtained models is evaluated and compared with the existing approaches.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, intuitionistic fuzzy number, intuitionistic fuzzy regression, mathematical programming method

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Authors: Parul Sinha

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Electronic commerce facilitates increased choice and information on goods or services for consumers but at the same time it compounds the inequality of bargaining power many consumers face when contracting with sellers. Due to the ‘inequality of bargaining power’ experienced by consumers when contracting by electronic means with business sellers in different jurisdictions, it may be difficult to determine where either the consumer is domiciled or the place where the seller is situated or conducts its business. The question arises in such situation that if one party wants to sue the other, then where can one sue? Which court has jurisdiction to try international conflicts arising from electronic contracts concluded through the internet? Will the same rules applicable to conventional contracts apply? Or should other considerations be taken into account? In all these situations the degree of consumer protection in electronic contracts comes into picture. In the light of the above, the paper discusses the jurisdiction and choice of law rules applied in EU and United States. Further, the paper considers the current uncertainty plaguing questions of jurisdiction in India. Therefore, the jurisdiction and choice of law rules for electronic contracts must be applied consistently and provide an automatic, harmonised rule in favour of the consumer’s jurisdiction and law. Lastly, the paper suggests the need for a uniform law in order to achieve effective juridical protection.

Keywords: electronic commerce, electronic contracts, jurisdiction, consumer protection

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Authors: Kaustav Kundu, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

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Construction industry plays a vital role in the economy of the world. But due to high uncertainty and variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries. Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully aware of different approaches and techniques for improving partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand different elements influencing the partnership. The research development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains are identified: “Lean approach”, “Relationship building” and “E-commerce applications”. This study analyses the contributions in the areas within each element and provides suggestions for future developments of partnership in construction supply chains.

Keywords: partnership, construction, lean, SCM, supply chain management

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto, Grazyna Voss

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In June 2013, the European Parliament and the Council adopted a directive on financial reporting (Directive 2013/34/EU). The main objective was to simplify the principles of the preparation of financial statements, including the principles of the presentation and disclosures of financial information by adapting reporting burdens to the type and size of an undertaking. Therefore, the Directive introduced a classification of all undertakings into five groups, i.e. micro, small, medium-sized, large and public-interest entities, and defined in detail the classification criteria. The principles of the preparation of financial statements and the presentation of financial information as well as applicable simplifications were defined for each group. The EU Member States had to implement the provisions of Directive 34 relating to accounting and financial reporting into domestic norms until January 1, 2016. In Poland, the provisions of Directive 34 were implemented into domestic accounting norms specified in the Polish Accounting Act on a gradual basis. On July 11, 2014, the Polish Parliament adopted an amendment to the Act, introducing the Directive's solutions for micro-undertakings and on July 23, 2015, for the remaining undertakings. The aim of this paper is to present Polish solutions relating to financial reporting after the implementation of Directive 34 and the results of the survey conducted among accountants regarding the evaluation of the implemented simplifications for micro and small undertakings.

Keywords: accounting standards, financial reporting, financial statement, simplification

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Authors: M. Javanmard

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This study was aimed at analyzing the effects of packaging (MAP) and preservation conditions on the packaged fresh walnut kernel quality. The central composite plan was used for evaluating the effect of oxygen (0–10%), carbon dioxide (0-10%), and temperature (4-26 °C) on qualitative characteristics of walnut kernels. Also, the response level technique was used to find the optimal conditions for interactive effects of factors, as well as estimating the best conditions of process using least amount of testing. Measured qualitative parameters were: peroxide index, color, decreased weight, mould and yeast counting test, and sensory evaluation. The results showed that the defined model for peroxide index, color, weight loss, and sensory evaluation is significant (p < 0.001), so that increase of temperature causes the peroxide value, color variation, and weight loss to increase and it reduces the overall acceptability of walnut kernels. An increase in oxygen percentage caused the color variation level and peroxide value to increase and resulted in lower overall acceptability of the walnuts. An increase in CO₂ percentage caused the peroxide value to decrease, but did not significantly affect other indices (p ≥ 0.05). Mould and yeast were not found in any samples. Optimal packaging conditions to achieve maximum quality of walnuts include: 1.46% oxygen, 10% carbon dioxide, and temperature of 4 °C.

Keywords: shelled walnut, MAP, quality, storage temperature

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Authors: Jihoon Lim, Patrick Kirchen, Ryozo Nagamune

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This paper proposes a linear parameter-varying (LPV) controller capable of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions with low ammonia (NH3) slip downstream of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems. SCR systems are widely adopted in diesel engines due to high NOx conversion efficiency. However, the nonlinearity of the SCR system and sensor uncertainty result in a challenging control problem. In order to overcome the control challenges, an LPV controller is proposed based on gain-scheduling parameters, that is, exhaust gas temperature and exhaust gas flow rate. Based on experimentally obtained data under the non-road transient driving cycle (NRTC), the simulations firstly show that the proposed controller yields high NOx conversion efficiency with a desired low NH3 slip. The performance of the proposed LPV controller is then compared with other controllers, including a gain-scheduling PID controller and a sliding mode controller. Additionally, the robustness is also demonstrated using the uncertainties ranging from 10 to 30%. The results show that the proposed controller is robustly stable under uncertainties.

Keywords: diesel engine, gain-scheduling control, linear parameter-varying, selective catalytic reduction

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Authors: Derick Shi-Chen Ou, Liang-Yu Chen

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Background: Acupuncture, a potential alternative, and complementary therapy revealed insufficient evidence in depression treatment. The efficacy of acupuncture treatment was still uncertainty. To evaluate the effect of acupuncture in treating depression, the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were examined. Methods: RCTs of the acupuncture therapy in treating major depression were searched from MEDLINE from 2007 to 2017. Keywords used for searching strategy included acupuncture, acupoint, and major depressive disorder. Results: Among the nine RCTs, four studies demonstrated great improvement in acupuncture treatment and five studies revealed the effectiveness of acupuncture intervention in medication. General trends suggest that acupuncture treatment is as effective as antidepressants with minimal side effects. Conclusion: Despite the promising results from the RCTs, there are still a variety of limitations, including small sample size, imprecise enrollment criteria, difficulties with blinding, randomization, short duration of study and lack of longitudinal follow-up. Therefore, the evidence that acupuncture as an alternative therapy for depression is inconclusive. More rigorously designed RCTs should be conducted in the future.

Keywords: acupuncture, major depressive disorders, randomized clinical trials, antidepressants

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Authors: Miroslav Čulík, Petr Gurný

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This paper is aimed at the financial assessment of the hard coal mining in a given region by real option methodology application. Hard coal mining in this mine makes net loss for the owner during the last years due to the long-term unfavourable mining conditions and significant drop in the coal prices during the last years. Management is going to shut down the operation and abandon the project to reduce the loss of the company. The goal is to assess whether the shutting down the operation is the only and correct solution of the problem. Due to the uncertainty in the future hard coal price evolution, the production might be again restarted if the price raises enough to cover the cost of the production. For the assessment, real option methodology is applied, which captures two important aspect of the financial decision-making: risk and flexibility. The paper is structured as follows: first, current state is described and problem is analysed. Next, methodology of real options is described. At last, project is evaluated by applying real option methodology. The results are commented and recommendations are provided.

Keywords: real option, investment, option to abandon, option to shut down and restart, risk, flexibility

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Authors: Farhat Ullah

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It is very unfortunate that in Pakistani public schools political interference is on its peak. The present study tries to find out the effect of the interference of political elected members in the affairs of public schools. The objectives of the study were to find out, the degree of interference of political members in public school, the positive and negative effects of political members, influence in public schools, students, and its administrators. This study was quantitative in nature. All the public schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were the population of this study. A sample of 400 teachers and 100 schools heads were selected for this study. A survey questionnaire consisted of 50 items related to objectives, was used for this study. The questionnaire consisted of five options based on Likert scale. Data were collected by the researcher himself from the respondents. Data were analyzed using chi square test. It was concluded from the analysis of data that recently the political members are involved in the process of school activities, which had badly affected the freedom and autonomy of school administrators. Mostly teachers are transferred from schools on political influence, which had created uncertainty among the schools teachers. Further, the student’s academic performance was also affected badly. It is recommended that schools must be free from political involvement for the smooth running of schools.

Keywords: public schools, politics, interference, performance

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Authors: Pedro Dias, Lurdes Verissimo, Maria Joao Baptista, Ana Pinheiro, Patricia Oliveira-Silva, Sofia Serra, Daniela Coimbra

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To achieve a high standard in performance, a musician must be well in all aspects of health (physical, mental and social). Anxiety in performance is related to the high level of coordination and skill needed in performance, as well as to the public evaluation of the performer. It affects some key elements of performance, such as concentration, memory, motor coordination, and relaxation. This work presents two studies focused on the adaptation and evaluation of the psychometric properties of the Music Performance Anxiety Inventory (MPAI-A) in young Portuguese music students. The first study was conducted with a sample of 161 adolescent music students, who responded to the Portuguese version of this instrument, and to the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children (STAIC-c2). Validity and reliability were examined, and this measure revealed robust psychometric properties in this sample. The second study aimed to adapt the MPAI to a younger population (one hundred 8-10 years-old music students). Again, the MPAI and the STAIC c-2 were used in this study. Exploratory factor analysis, correlations, and internal consistency were used to evaluate the final children version of the instrument (MPAI-C), presenting a different factor structure compared to the adolescent version (10 items organized in 2 factors) and high levels of reliability and convergent validity.

Keywords: anxiety, assessment, children and adolescents, music performance

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Authors: Sutida Maneeanakekul, Dusit Wechakit, Somsak Piriyayota

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Coastal erosion is a major problem in Thailand, in both the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea coasts. According to the Department of Marine and Coastal Resources, land erosion occurred along the 200 km coastline with an average rate of 5 meters/year. Coastal erosion affects public and government properties, as well as the socio-economy of the country, including emigration in coastal communities, loss of habitats, and decline in fishery production. To combat the problem of coastal erosion, projects utilizing bamboo sticks for coastal defense against erosion were carried out in 5 areas beginning in November, 2010, including: Pak Klong Munharn- Samut Songkhram Province; Ban Khun Samutmaneerat, Pak Klong Pramong and Chao Matchu Shrine-Samut Sakhon Province,and Pak Klong Hongthong – Chachoengsao Province by Marine and Coastal Resources Department. In 2012, an evaluation of the effectiveness of solving the problem of coastal erosion by using bamboo stick was carried out, with a focus on three aspects. Firstly, the change in physical and biological features after using the bamboo stick technique was assessed. Secondly, participation of people in the community in the way of managing the problem of coastal erosion were these aspects evaluated as part of the study. The last aspect that was evaluated is the satisfaction of the community toward this technique. The results of evaluation showed that the amounts of sediment have dramatically changed behind the bamboo sticks lines. The increase of sediment was found to be about 23.50-56.20 centimeters (during 2012-2013). In terms of biological aspect, there has been an increase in mangrove forest areas, especially at Bang Ya Prak, Samut Sakhon Province. Average tree density was found to be about 4,167 trees per square meter. Additionally, an increase in production of fisheries was observed. Presently, the change in the evaluated physical features tends to increase in every aspect, including the satisfaction of people in community toward the process of solving the erosion problem. People in the community are involved in the preparatory, operation, monitoring and evaluation process to resolve the problem in the medium levels.

Keywords: bamboo sticks, coastal erosion, rehabilitate, Thailand sustainable development approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 222