Search results for: factors influence

Authors: Laura Florez

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The construction industry is labour intensive, and the behaviour and management of workers have a direct impact on the performance of construction projects. One of the issues it currently faces is how to recruit and maintain its workers. Construction is known as an industry where workers face the problem of short employment durations, frequent layoffs, and periods of unemployment between jobs. These challenges not only creates pressures on the workers but also project managers have to constantly train new workers, face skills shortage, and uncertainty on the quality of the workers it will attract. To consider worker’s needs and project managers expectations, one practice that can be implemented is to schedule construction projects to maintain a stable workforce. This paper proposes a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to schedule projects with the objective of maximising social sustainability of construction projects, that is, maximise labour stability. Aside from the social objective, the model accounts for equipment and financial resources required by the projects during the construction phase. To illustrate how the solution strategy works, a construction programme comprised of ten projects is considered. The projects are scheduled to maximise labour stability while simultaneously minimising time and minimising cost. The tradeoff between the values in terms of time, cost, and labour stability allows project managers to consider their preferences and identify which solution best suits their needs. Additionally, the model determines the optimal starting times for each of the projects, working patterns for the workers, and labour costs. This model shows that construction projects can be scheduled to not only benefit the project manager, but also benefit current workers and help attract new workers to the industry. Due to its practicality, it can be a valuable tool to support decision making and assist construction stakeholders when developing schedules that include social sustainability factors.

Keywords: labour stability, mixed-integer programming (MIP), scheduling, workforce management

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Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

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Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nano-particles under the influence of electric field in electrical mobility spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined field-diffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multi-channel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with non-uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: aerosol nano-particle, CFD, electrical mobility spectrometer, von neumann entropy

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Authors: Reza Fardid, Aliyeh Alipour

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Introduction: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the most common and deadliest diseases. A coronary angiography is an important tool for the diagnosis and treatment of this disease. Because angiography is performed by exposure to ionizing radiation, it can lead to harmful effects. Ionizing radiation induces double-stranded breaks in DNA, which is a potentially life-threatening injury. The purpose of the present study is an investigation of the phosphorylation of histone H2AX in the location of the double-stranded break in Peripheral blood lymphocytes as an indication of Biological effects of radiation on angiography patients. Materials and Methods: This method is based on measurement of the phosphorylation of histone (gamma-H2AX, gH2AX) level on serine 139 after formation of DNA double-strand break. 5 cc of blood from 24 patients with angiography were sampled before and after irradiation. Blood lymphocytes were removed, fixed and were stained with specific ϒH2AX antibodies. Finally, ϒH2AX signal as an indicator of the double-strand break was measured with Flow Cytometry Technique. Results and discussion: In all patients, an increase was observed in the number of breaks in double-stranded DNA after irradiation (20.15 ± 14.18) compared to before exposure (1.52 ± 0.34). Also, the mean of DNA double-strand break was showed a linear correlation with DAP. However, although induction of DNA double-strand breaks associated with radiation dose in patients, the effect of individual factors such as radiosensitivity and regenerative capacity should not be ignored. If in future we can measure DNA damage response in every patient angiography and it will be used as a biomarker patient dose, will look very impressive on the public health level. Conclusion: Using flow cytometry readings which are done automatically, it is possible to detect ϒH2AX in the number of blood cells. Therefore, the use of this technique could play a significant role in monitoring patients.

Keywords: coronary angiography, DSB of DNA, ϒH2AX, ionizing radiation

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Authors: Kajori Banerjee, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

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“Health transition” is defined to be “a process through which high levels of mortality, morbidity and disability are reduced to low levels by influencing cultural, social and behavioural factors”. Life expectancy in India has been on the rise and parallel the burden of disease and disability has also risen noticeably. Borrowing data from Indian Census (2001, 2011), this study identifies the gender-wise burden of disability by calculating disability free life expectancy (DFLE) and life lived with disability (LWD). Sullivan’s method of calculating DFLE using proportion of disabled is used for this purpose. The change in person years lived with disability in the decade 2001-11 is further decomposed using Arriaga’s method into mortality and disability effects (ME and DE) to check the magnitude and direction of contribution of mortality and disability. Nationally, along with DFLE, LWD has amplified too. Despite having the highest life expectancy and DFLE, LWD in Kerala, was highest for both sexes in 2001. But in 2011, the LWD was highest among the males of Orissa and females of Rajasthan. For the overall population, DE is positive for the prime working age groups of 20-40years indicating that there has been an increase in the disability proportion holding mortality constant for 2001-2011. Females exhibit higher positive DE implying greater loss of healthy years due to disability than males. The findings call for an immediate attention to the causes of rising disability burden among the working population, especially females, as this might heavily effect the availability of quality labour force and its relative economic output in the Indian labour market. This also hints at the degrading quality of the elongated life and needs to be given the required attention to enhance the quality of life lead in the Nation.

Keywords: disability-free life expectancy, disability effect, life expectancy, mortality effect

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Authors: Ali Javaid, Rizwan Latif, Syed Adnan Qasim, Imran Shafi

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To control combustion inside a direct injection diesel engine, fuel atomization is the best tool. Controlling combustion helps in reducing emissions and improves efficiency. Cavitation is one of the most important factors that significantly affect the nature of spray before it injects into combustion chamber. Typical fuel injector nozzles are small and operate at a very high pressure, which limits the study of internal nozzle behavior especially in case of diesel engine. Simulating cavitation in a fuel injector will help in understanding the phenomenon and will assist in further development. There is a parametric variation between high speed and high torque low speed diesel engines. The objective of this study is to simulate internal spray characteristics for a low speed high torque diesel engine. In-nozzle cavitation has strong effects on the parameters e.g. mass flow rate, fuel velocity, and momentum flux of fuel that is to be injected into the combustion chamber. The external spray dynamics and subsequently the air – fuel mixing depends on a lot of the parameters of fuel injecting the nozzle. The approach used to model turbulence induced in – nozzle cavitation for high-torque low-speed diesel engine, is homogeneous equilibrium model. The governing equations were modeled using Matlab. Complete Model in question was extensively evaluated by performing 3-D time-dependent simulations on Open FOAM, which is an open source flow solver and implemented in CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics). Results thus obtained will be analyzed for better evaporation in the near-nozzle region. The proposed analyses will further help in better engine efficiency, low emission, and improved fuel economy.

Keywords: cavitation, HEM model, nozzle flow, open foam, turbulence

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Authors: Petra Suchovska

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The spirit of post-modernity remains chaotic and obscure. Geopolitical rivalries raging at the more extreme levels and the ability of intellectual community to explain the entropy of global affairs has been diminishing. The Western-led idea of globalisation imposed upon the world does not seem to bring the bright future for human progress anymore, and its architects lose much of global control, as the strong non-western cultural entities develop new forms of post-modern establishments. The overall growing cultural misunderstanding and mistrust are expressions of political impotence to deal with the inner contradictions within the contemporary phenomenon (capitalism, economic globalisation) that embrace global society. The drivers and effects of global restructuring must be understood in the context of systems and principles reflecting on true complexity of society. The purpose of this paper is to set out some ideas about how cybernetics can contribute to understanding international system structure and analyse possible world futures. “IS Cybernetics” would apply to system thinking and cybernetic principles in IR in order to analyse and handle the complexity of social phenomena from global perspective. “IS cybernetics” would be, for now, the subfield of IR, concerned with applying theories and methodologies from cybernetics and system sciences by offering concepts and tools for addressing problems holistically. It would bring order to the complex relations between disciplines that IR touches upon. One of its tasks would be to map, measure, tackle and find the principles of dynamics and structure of social forces that influence human behaviour and consequently cause political, technological and economic structural reordering, forming and reforming the international system. “IS cyberneticists” task would be to understand the control mechanisms that govern the operation of international society (and the sub-systems in their interconnection) and only then suggest better ways operate these mechanisms on sublevels as cultural, political, technological, religious and other. “IS cybernetics” would also strive to capture the mechanism of social-structural changes in time, which would open space for syntheses between IR and historical sociology. With the cybernetic distinction between first order studies of observed systems and the second order study of observing systems, IS cybernetics would also provide a unifying epistemological and methodological, conceptual framework for multilateralism and multiple modernities theory.

Keywords: cybernetics, historical sociology, international system, systems theory

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Authors: Hannah O'Sullivan, Esther Quinn

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Purpose: The Architectural, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry has historically struggled to adapt to change. Although the ability to innovate and successfully implement organizational change has been demonstrated to be critical in achieving a sustainable competitive advantage in the industry, many AEC organizations continue to struggle when affecting organizational change. One prominent area of organizational change that presents many challenges in the industry is the adoption of new forms of technology, for example, Building Information Modelling (BIM). Certain Organisational Change Management (OCM) practices have been proven to be effective in supporting organizations to adopt change, but little research has been carried out on diverging employee attitudes to change relative to their roles within the organization. The purpose of this research study is to examine how OCM practices influence employee attitudes to change when adopting new forms of technology and to analyze the diverging employee perspectives within an organization on the importance of different OCM strategies. Methodology: Adopting an interview-based approach, a case study was carried out on a large-sized, prominent Irish construction organization who are currently adopting a new technology platform for its projects. Qualitative methods were used to gain insight into differing perspectives on the utilization of various OCM practices and their efficacy when adopting a new form of technology on projects. Change agents implementing the organizational change gave insight into their intentions with the technology rollout strategy, while other employees were interviewed to understand how this rollout strategy was received and the challenges that were encountered. Findings: The results of this research study are currently being finalized. However, it is expected that employees in different roles will value different OCM practices above others. Findings and conclusions will be determined within the coming weeks. Value: This study will contribute to the body of knowledge relating to the introduction of new technologies, including BIM, to AEC organizations. It will also contribute to the field of organizational change management, providing insight into methods of introducing change that will be most effective for different employees based on their roles and levels of experience within the industry. The focus of this study steers away from traditional studies of the barriers to adopting BIM in its first instance at an organizational level and centers on the direct effect on employees when a company changes the technology platform being used.

Keywords: architectural, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry, Building Information Modelling, case study, challenges, employee perspectives, organisational change management.

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Authors: Valiollah Babaeipour, Mahdi Rahaie

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food supplements are rich in specific nutrients and bioactive compounds that eliminate free radicals and improve cellular metabolism. The major bioactive compounds are found in bran and cereal sprouts. Secondary metabolites of these microorganisms have antioxidant properties that can be used alone or in combination with chemotherapy and radiation therapy to treat cancer. Biologically active compounds such as benzoquinone derivatives extracted from fermented wheat germ extract (FWGE) have several positive effects on the overall state of human health and strengthen the immune system. The present work describes the discontinuous fermentation of raw wheat germ for FWGE production through the simultaneous culture process using the probiotic strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, Lactobacillus plantarum, and the possibility of using solid waste. To increase production efficiency, first to select important factors in the optimization of each fermentation process, using a factorial statistical scheme of stirring fraction (120 to 200 rpm), dilution of solids to solvent (1 to 8-12), fermentation time (16 to 24 hours) and strain to wheat germ ratio (20% to 50%) were studied and then simultaneous culture was performed to increase the yields of 2 and 6 dimethoxybenzoquinone (2,6-DMBQ). Since 2 and 6 dimethoxy benzoquinone were fermented as the main biologically active compound in wheat germ extract, UV-Vis analysis was performed to confirm the presence of 2 and 6 dimethoxy benzoquinone in the final product. In addition, 2,6-DMBQ of some products was isolated in a non-polar C-18 column and quantified using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Based on our findings, it can be concluded that the increase of 2 and 6 dimethoxybenzoquinone in the simultaneous culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae - Lactobacillus plantarum compared to pure culture of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (from 1.89 mg / g) to 28.9% (2.66 mg / g) Increased.

Keywords: wheat germ, FWGE, saccharomyces cerevisiae, lactobacillus plantarum, co-culture, 2, 6-DMBQ

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Authors: Lize Tibiriçá, Ronnie Lee, Samantha Behbahani

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Fibromyalgia (FM) is a musculoskeletal disorder affecting men and women of different ages and cultures. The cause of this disorder is unknown; however, studies suggest an etiology that involves biological and psychosocial factors. Few studies have shown that a personality type such as neuroticism is associated with chronic pain conditions. Past research has explored whether patients with FM present with a specific personality trait. However, studies have used different methods (i.e. Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), Sociotropy and Autonomy Scale (SAS) and Dysfunctional Attitude Scale (DAS), Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire or Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI), Karolinska scale of personality, Big Five Inventory or NEO Personality Inventory) to explore the connection between FM and a personality type. They have identified personality types that present similar characteristics but vary in the name (i.e. high harm avoidance and low novelty seeking, psychasthenia/muscular tension/somatic anxiety, neuroticism). Although Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire and the Big Five Inventory differ in terms of content and structure, both of them identify neuroticism as the personality type of FM patients, and the former also identifies these patients as having a low sociability personality trait. Previous research also shows a trend of sociotropic personality style with FM patients that also suffer from Major Depressive Disorder. Participants in these studies were, for the most part, adult female and researchers have recognized that as a limitation and whether their findings can be generalized to men and younger patients with FM. Furthermore, most studies reviewed were conducted in Europe (i.e. Spain) and had a cross-sectional design. Future research should replicate past studies in different countries and consider conducting a longitudinal study. Although it is suspected that FM course is modulated by FM patients’ personality, it is not known whether individuals with similar personalities will develop FM. This review sought to explain the differences and similarities between the personality types identified. Limitations in the studies reviewed were addressed, and considerations for future research and treatment were discussed.

Keywords: chronic pain, fibromyalgia, neuroticism, personality type

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Authors: Hoa Pham

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The literature on language teaching and second language acquisition has been largely driven by monolingual ideology with a common assumption that a second language (L2) is best taught and learned in the L2 only. The current study challenges this assumption by reporting learners' positive perceptions of tertiary level teachers' code switching practices in Vietnam. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of code switching practices in language classrooms from a learners' perspective. Data were collected from student participants who were working towards a Bachelor degree in English within the English for Business Communication stream through the use of focus group interviews. The literature has documented that this method of interviewing has a number of distinct advantages over individual student interviews. For instance, group interactions generated by focus groups create a more natural environment than that of an individual interview because they include a range of communicative processes in which each individual may influence or be influenced by others - as they are in their real life. The process of interaction provides the opportunity to obtain the meanings and answers to a problem that are "socially constructed rather than individually created" leading to the capture of real-life data. The distinct feature of group interaction offered by this technique makes it a powerful means of obtaining deeper and richer data than those from individual interviews. The data generated through this study were analysed using a constant comparative approach. Overall, the students expressed positive views of this practice indicating that it is a useful teaching strategy. Teacher code switching was seen as a learning resource and a source supporting language output. This practice was perceived to promote student comprehension and to aid the learning of content and target language knowledge. This practice was also believed to scaffold the students' language production in different contexts. However, the students indicated their preference for teacher code switching to be constrained, as extensive use was believed to negatively impact on their L2 learning and trigger cognitive reliance on the L1 for L2 learning. The students also perceived that when the L1 was used to a great extent, their ability to develop as autonomous learners was negatively impacted. This study found that teacher code switching was supported in certain contexts by learners, thus suggesting that there is a need for the widespread assumption about the monolingual teaching approach to be re-considered.

Keywords: codeswitching, L1 use, L2 teaching, learners’ perception

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Authors: G. Dottavio, M. F. Andrade, F. Renard, V. Cheutet, A.-L. Ladier, S. Vercraene, P. Hoang, S. Briet, R. Dachicourt, Y. Baizet

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An important number of technological equipment and high-skilled workers over long periods of time have to be mobilized during nuclear decommissioning processes. The related operations generate complex flows of waste and high inventory levels, associated to information flows of heterogeneous types. Taking into account that more than 10 decommissioning operations are on-going in France and about 50 are expected toward 2025: A big challenge is addressed today. The management of decommissioning and dismantling of nuclear installations represents an important part of the nuclear-based energy lifecycle, since it has an environmental impact as well as an important influence on the electricity cost and therefore the price for end-users. Bringing new technologies and new solutions into decommissioning methodologies is thus mandatory to improve the quality, cost and delay efficiency of these operations. The purpose of our project is to improve decommissioning management efficiency by developing a decision-support framework dedicated to plan nuclear facility decommissioning operations and to optimize waste evacuation by means of a logistic approach. The target is to create an easy-to-handle tool capable of i) predicting waste flows and proposing the best decommissioning logistics scenario and ii) managing information during all the steps of the process and following the progress: planning, resources, delays, authorizations, saturation zones, waste volume, etc. In this article we present our results from waste nuclear flows simulation during decommissioning process, including discrete-event simulation supported by FLEXSIM 3-D software. This approach was successfully tested and our works confirms its ability to improve this type of industrial process by identifying the critical points of the chain and optimizing it by identifying improvement actions. This type of simulation, executed before the start of the process operations on the basis of a first conception, allow ‘what-if’ process evaluation and help to ensure quality of the process in an uncertain context. The simulation of nuclear waste flows before evacuation from the site will help reducing the cost and duration of the decommissioning process by optimizing the planning and the use of resources, transitional storage and expensive radioactive waste containers. Additional benefits are expected for the governance system of the waste evacuation since it will enable a shared responsibility of the waste flows.

Keywords: nuclear decommissioning, logistical optimization, decision-support framework, waste management

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Vicente Espinola, Luis Torres, Christhian Gonzalez

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Entrepreneurship is a topic of current interest in Mexico and the World, which has been fostered through public policies with great impact on its generation. The strategies used in Mexico have not been successful, being motivational strategies aimed at the masses with the intention that someone in the process generates a venture. The strategies used for its development have been "picking of winners" favoring those who have already overcome the initial stages of undertaking without effective support. This situation shows a disarticulation that appears even more in social entrepreneurship; due to this, it is relevant to research on those elements that could develop them and thus integrate a model of entrepreneurship and social innovation for Mexico. Social entrepreneurship should be generating social innovation, which is translated into business models in order to make the benefits reach the population. These models are proposed putting the social impact before the economic impact, without forgetting its sustainability in the medium and long term. In this work, we present a simple model of innovation and social entrepreneurship for Guanajuato, Mexico. This algorithm was based on how social innovation could be generated in a systemic way for Mexico through different institutions that promote innovation. In this case, the technological parks of the state of Guanajuato were studied because these are considered one of the areas of Mexico where its main objectives are to make technology transfer to companies but overlooking the social sector and entrepreneurs. An experimental design of n = 60 was carried out with potential entrepreneurs to identify their perception of the social approach that the enterprises should have, the skills they consider required to create a venture, as well as their interest in generating ventures that solve social problems. This experiment had a 2K design, the value of k = 3 and the computational simulation was performed in R statistical language. A simple model of interconnected variables is proposed, which allows us to identify where it is necessary to increase efforts for the generation of social enterprises. The 96.67% of potential entrepreneurs expressed interest in ventures that solve social problems. In the analysis of the variables interaction, it was identified that the isolated development of entrepreneurial skills would only replicate the generation of traditional ventures. The variable of social approach presented positive interactions, which may influence the generation of social entrepreneurship if this variable was strengthened and permeated in the processes of training and development of entrepreneurs. In the future, it will be necessary to analyze the institutional actors that are present in the social entrepreneurship ecosystem, in order to analyze the interaction necessary to strengt the innovation and social entrepreneurship ecosystem.

Keywords: social innovation, model, entrepreneurship, technological parks

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Authors: Chi-Hsuan Cheng

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This research aims to evaluate public-private partnerships against cyberattacks by comparing the UK and Taiwan. First, the study analyses major cyberattacks and factors influencing cybersecurity in both countries. Second, it assesses the effectiveness of current cyber defence strategies in combating cyberattacks by comparing the approaches taken in the UK and Taiwan, while also evaluating the cyber resilience of both nations. Lastly, the research evaluates existing public-private partnerships by comparing those in the UK and Taiwan, and proposes recommendations for enhancing cooperation and collaboration mechanisms in tackling cyberattacks. Grounded theory serves as the core research method. Theoretical sampling is used to recruit participants in both the UK and Taiwan, including investigators, police officers, and professionals from cybersecurity firms. Semi-structured interviews are conducted in English in the UK and Mandarin in Taiwan, recorded with consent, and pseudonymised for privacy. Data analysis involves open coding, grouping excerpts into codes, and categorising codes. Axial coding connects codes into categories, leading to the development of a codebook. The process continues iteratively until theoretical saturation is reached. Finally, selective coding identifies the core topic, evaluating public-private cooperation against cyberattacks and its implications for social and policing strategies in the UK and Taiwan, which highlights the current status of the cybersecurity industry, governmental plans for cybersecurity, and contributions to cybersecurity from both government sectors and cybersecurity firms, with a particular focus on public-private partnerships. In summary, this research aims to offer practical recommendations to law enforcement, private sectors, and academia for reflecting on current strategies and tailoring future approaches in cybersecurity

Keywords: cybersecurity, cybercrime, public private partnerships, cyberattack

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Authors: H. Z. M. Chong, M. E. Y. Leong, G. L. Khor, S. C. Loke

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Vitamin D insufficiency is reported to be prevalent among women living in different altitudes including the equator where sunshine is available throughout the year. Multiple factors for vitamin D insufficiency include poor intake of vitamin D rich food and inadequate sun exposure, especially among women working indoor with a sedentary lifestyle. Furthermore, Muslim women in Malaysia whose attire covers the entire body are likely to receive poor sun exposure. This research determined serum vitamin D status, vitamin D intake and sun exposure of women aged 20-45 years of different ethnicity in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Blood samples were collected from 106 women for determination of serum 25(OH)D levels. Information about vitamin D intake and sun exposure were obtained by interviewing the subjects using pre-tested questionnaires. The overall mean serum 25(OH)D was found to be 29.9 ± 14 nmol/L. Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency was prevalent and highest among the Malay women. Less than ten percent of the subjects in this study met the sufficient vitamin D level recommendation of ≥50 nmol/L. Intake of vitamin D rich food such as oily fishes was poor across the different ethnicity. Other dietary sources of vitamin D in the diet were fortified bread and skim milk. On the other hand, the median sunlight exposure of the subjects was 3.9 hours per week. The Malay women reported to have the highest duration being exposed to the sun. Nevertheless, due to cultural clothing practices, these women had the least body surface area exposed to sunlight, resulting in the lowest calculated sun index score compared to the Chinese and the Indians. Low intake of vitamin D rich foods and sun exposure were negatively correlated with serum 25(OH)D level. In conclusion, intake of food sources rich in vitamin D and adequate body surface area exposed to the sun are essential to ensure healthy vitamin D level. Supplementation of vitamin D may be recommended to women whom unable to meet these recommendations.

Keywords: serum 25-OH, sun exposure, vitamin D food frequency, vitamin D deficiency

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: Changyeop Lee, Sewon Kim, Jongho Lee

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Reburning technology has been developed to adopt various commercial combustion systems. Fuel lean reburning is an advanced reburning method to reduce NOx economically without using burnout air, however it is not easy to get high NOx reduction efficiency. In the fuel lean reburning system, the localized fuel rich eddies are used to establish partial fuel rich regions so that the NOx can react with hydrocarbon radical restrictively. In this paper, a new advanced reburning method which supplies reburn fuel with oscillatory motion is introduced to increase NOx reduction rate effectively. To clarify whether forced oscillating injection of reburn fuel can effectively reduce NOx emission, experimental tests were conducted in vertical combustion furnace. Experiments were performed in flames stabilized by a gas burner, which was mounted at the bottom of the furnace. The natural gas is used as both main and reburn fuel and total thermal input is about 40kW. The forced oscillating injection of reburn fuel is realized by electronic solenoid valve, so that fuel rich region and fuel lean region is established alternately. In the fuel rich region, NOx is converted to N2 by reburning reaction, however unburned hydrocarbon and CO is oxidized in fuel lean zone and mixing zone at downstream where slightly fuel lean region is formed by mixing of two regions. This paper reports data on flue gas emissions and temperature distribution in the furnace for a wide range of experimental conditions. All experimental data has been measured at steady state. The NOx reduction rate increases up to 41% by forced oscillating reburn motion. The CO emissions were shown to be kept at very low level. And this paper makes clear that in order to decrease NOx concentration in the exhaust when oscillating reburn fuel injection system is adopted, the control of factors such as frequency and duty ratio is very important.

Keywords: NOx, CO, reburning, pollutant

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Authors: Javier Alfonso Bonilla-Chávez, Angélica Lozano

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In North America, more than 2,000 people annually die in accidents related to railroad tracks. In 2020, collisions at grade crossings were the main cause of deaths related to railway accidents in Mexico. Railway networks have constant interaction with motor transport users, cyclists, and pedestrians, mainly in grade crossings, where is the greatest vulnerability and risk of accidents. Usually, accidents at grade crossings are directly related to risky behavior and non-compliance with regulations by motorists, cyclists, and pedestrians, especially in developing countries. Around the world, countries classify these crossings in different ways. In Mexico, according to their dangerousness (high, medium, or low), types A, B and C have been established, recommending for each one different type of auditive and visual signaling and gates, as well as horizontal and vertical signaling. This classification is based in a weighting, but regrettably, it is not explained how the weight values were obtained. A review of the variables and the current approach for the grade crossing classification is required, since it is inadequate for some crossings. In contrast, North America (USA and Canada) and European countries consider a broader classification so that attention to each crossing is addressed more precisely and equipment costs are adjusted. Lack of a proper classification, could lead to cost overruns in the equipment and a deficient operation. To exemplify the lack of a good classification, six crossings are studied, three located in the rural area of Mexico and three in Mexico City. These cases show the need of: improving the current regulations, improving the existing infrastructure, and implementing technological systems, including informative signals with nomenclature of the involved crossing and direct telephone line for reporting emergencies. This implementation is unaffordable for most municipal governments. Also, an inventory of the most dangerous grade crossings in urban and rural areas must be obtained. Then, an approach for improving the classification of grade crossings is suggested. This approach must be based on criteria design, characteristics of adjacent roads or intersections which can influence traffic flow through the crossing, accidents related to motorized and non-motorized vehicles, land use and land management, type of area, and services and economic activities in the zone where the grade crossings is located. An expanded classification of grade crossing in Mexico could reduce accidents and improve the efficiency of the railroad.

Keywords: accidents, grade crossing, railroad, traffic safety

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Authors: C. van den Berg, C. Pokpas

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Popular discourse touts entrepreneurship as a universal solution for underdevelopment, unemployment, and poverty. Moreover, claims are made that women and other disadvantaged groups can achieve material and personal success through digital entrepreneurship. This paper examines the potential of digital technology in entrepreneurial ventures to stimulate economic growth for marginalized groups and communities. Although digital entrepreneurship is hailed as a means to empower under-resourced and socially marginalized people, these opportunities still exist within the confines of existing social and cultural practices. The perspectives of female digital entrepreneurs in developing countries are sorely understudied, particularly concerning an understanding of the complex underlying socio-cultural factors impeding women’s entrepreneurial behaviors. This qualitative study, guided by a feminist phenomenological perspective, focused on the experiences of digital female entrepreneurs in the Western Cape of South Africa. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews and analyzed through the interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) approach to determine the relationships between digital entrepreneurship and structural and agential enabling conditions. Findings show that digital entrepreneurship is not a panacea for economic growth in marginalized groups and communities and highlight the importance of addressing socio-cultural gender inequality to enable successful entrepreneurial activity. The paper concludes with recommendations for specialized training initiatives aimed at female entrepreneurs that address internalized constraints and barriers that keep women subservient and measures to shift gender and power beliefs. The outcome will benefit the stimulation of gender-specific public policies to develop a successful digital start-up ecosystem further.

Keywords: digital innovation, female digital entrepreneurs, feminist phenomenology, gender, marginalised communities

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Authors: Jiancheng Zheng

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When metals are released into water from mining activities, they undergo changes chemically, physically and biologically and then may become more mobile and transportable along the waterway from their original sites. Natural colloids, including both organic and inorganic entities, are naturally occurring in any aquatic environment with sizes in the nanometer range. Natural colloids in a water system play an important role, quite often a key role, in binding and transporting compounds. When assessing and evaluating metals in natural waters, their sources, mobility, fate, and distribution patterns in the system are the major concerns from the point of view of assessing environmental contamination and pollution during resource development. There are a few ways to quantify colloids and accordingly study how metals distribute on different sizes of colloids. Current research results show that the presence of colloids can enhance the transport of some heavy metals in water, while heavy metals may also have an influence on the transport of colloids when cations in the water system change colloids and/or the ion strength of the water system changes. Therefore, studies into the relationship between different sizes of colloids and different metals in a water system are necessary and needed as natural colloids in water systems are complex mixtures of both organic and inorganic as well as biological materials. Their stability could be sensitive to changes in their shapes, phases, hardness and functionalities due to coagulation and deposition et al. and chemical, physical, and biological reactions. Because metal contaminants’ adsorption on surfaces of colloids is closely related to colloid properties, it is desired to fraction water samples as soon as possible after a sample is taken in the natural environment in order to avoid changes to water samples during transportation and storage. For this reason, this study carried out groundwater sample processing in the field, using Prep/Scale tangential flow filtration systems with 3-level cartridges (1 kDa, 10 kDa and 100 kDa). Groundwater samples from seven sites at Fort MacMurray, Alberta, Canada, were fractionated during the 2015 field sampling season. All samples were processed within 3 hours after samples were taken. Preliminary results show that although the distribution pattern of metals on colloids may vary with different samples taken from different sites, some elements often tend to larger colloids (such as Fe and Re), some to finer colloids (such as Sb and Zn), while some of them mainly in the dissolved form (such as Mo and Be). This information is useful to evaluate and project the fate and mobility of different metals in the groundwaters and possibly in environmental water systems.

Keywords: metal, colloid, groundwater, mobility, fractionation, sorption

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Authors: Lev Chernyshev, Ekaterina Lieshout, Natalia Kabaliuk

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Sit-skis enable individuals with limited lower limb or core movement to ski unassisted confidently. The rise in popularity of the Winter Paralympics has seen an influx of engineering innovation, especially for the Downhill and Super-Giant Slalom events, where the athletes achieve speeds as high as 160km/h. The growth in the sport has inspired recent research into sit-ski aerodynamics. Crosswinds are expected in mountain climates and, therefore, can greatly impact a skier's maneuverability and aerodynamics. This research investigates the impact of crosswinds on the drag force of a Paralympic sit-ski using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). A Paralympic sit-ski with a model of a skier, a leg cover, a bucket seat, and a simplified suspension system was used for CFD analysis in ANSYS Fluent. The hybrid initialisation tool and the SST k–ω turbulence model were used with two tetrahedral mesh bodies of influence. The crosswinds (10, 30, and 50 km/h) acting perpendicular to the sit-ski's direction of travel were simulated, corresponding to the straight-line skiing speeds of 60, 80, and 100km/h. Following the initialisation, 150 iterations for both first and second order steady-state solvers were used, before switching to a transient solver with a computational time of 1.5s and a time step of 0.02s, to allow the solution to converge. CFD results were validated against wind tunnel data. The results suggested that for all crosswind and sit-ski speeds, on average, 64% of the total drag on the ski was due to the athlete's torso. The suspension was associated with the second largest overall sit-ski drag force contribution, averaging at 27%, followed by the leg cover at 10%. While the seat contributed a negligible 0.5% of the total drag force, averaging at 1.2N across the conditions studied. The effect of the crosswind increased the total drag force across all skiing speed studies, with the drag on the athlete's torso and suspension being the most sensitive to the changes in the crosswind magnitude. The effect of the crosswind on the ski drag reduced as the simulated skiing speed increased: for skiing at 60km/h, the drag force on the torso increased by 154% with the increase of the crosswind from 10km/h to 50km/h; whereas, at 100km/h the corresponding drag force increase was halved (75%). The analysis of the flow and pressure field characteristics for a sit-ski in crosswind conditions indicated the flow separation localisation and wake size correlated with the magnitude and directionality of the crosswind relative to straight-line skiing. The findings can inform aerodynamic improvements in sit-ski design and increase skiers' medalling chances.

Keywords: sit-ski, aerodynamics, CFD, crosswind effects

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Authors: Andrew Kanzunguze, Lusayo Mwabumba, Jason K. Gilbertson, Dominic B. Gondwe, George Z. Nxumayo

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Knowledge about the spatio-temporal distribution of invasive plants in protected areas provides a base from which hypotheses explaining proliferation of plant invasions can be made alongside development of relevant invasive plant monitoring programs. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of bracken fern on the grassland plateau of Nyika National Park over the past 30 years (1986-2016) as well as to determine the current extent of the invasion. Remote sensing, machine learning, and statistical modelling techniques (object-based image analysis, image classification and linear regression analysis) in geographical information systems were used to determine both the spatial and temporal distribution of bracken fern in the study area. Results have revealed that bracken fern has been increasing coverage on the Nyika plateau at an estimated annual rate of 87.3 hectares since 1986. This translates to an estimated net increase of 2,573.1 hectares, which was recorded from 1,788.1 hectares (1986) to 4,361.9 hectares (2016). As of 2017 bracken fern covered 20,940.7 hectares, approximately 14.3% of the entire grassland plateau. Additionally, it was observed that the fern was distributed most densely around Chelinda camp (on the central plateau) as well as in forest verges and roadsides across the plateau. Based on these results it is recommended that Ecological Niche Modelling approaches be employed to (i) isolate the most important factors influencing bracken fern proliferation as well as (ii) identify and prioritize areas requiring immediate control interventions so as to minimize bracken fern proliferation in Nyika National Park.

Keywords: bracken fern, image classification, Landsat-8, Nyika National Park, spatio-temporal distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Awad Khireldin, Colin Law

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Runways are the major infrastructure of airports around the world. Efficient operations of runways are key to ensure that airports are running smoothly with minimal delays. There are many factors that affect the efficiency of runway operations, such as the aircraft wake separation, runways system configuration, the fleet mix, and the runways separation distance. This paper aims to address how to maximize runway operations using a Discrete Event Simulation model. A case study of Cairo International Airport (CIA) is developed to maximize the utilizing of three parallel runways using a simulation model. Different scenarios have been designed where every runway could be assigned for arrival, departure, or mixed operations. A benchmarking study was also included to compare the actual to the proposed results to spot the potential improvements. The simulation model shows that there is a significant difference in utilization and delays between the actual and the proposed ones, there are several recommendations that can be provided to airport management, in the short and long term, to increase the efficiency and to reduce the delays. By including the recommendation with different operations scenarios, such as upgrading the airport slot Coordination from Level 1 to Level 2 in the short term. In the long run, discuss the possibilities to increase the International Air Transport association (IATA) slot coordination to Level 3 as more flights are expected to be handled by the airport. Technological advancements such as radar in the approach full airside simulation model could improve the airport performance where the airport is recommended to review the standard operations procedures with the appropriate authorities. Also, the airport can adopt a future operational plan to accommodate the forecasted additional traffic density in case of adding a fourth terminal building to increase the airport capacity.

Keywords: airport performance, runway, discrete event simulation, capacity, airside

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Authors: Ximena Calle, Plinio Cantero-López, Felipe Muñoz-Córdova, Mayarling-Francisca Troncoso, Sergio Lavandero, Valentina Parra

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MUL1, a mitochondrial E3 ubiquitin ligase anchored to the outer mitochondrial membrane, is highly expressed in the heart. MUL1 is involved in multiple biological pathways associated with mitochondrial dynamics. Increased MUL1 affects the balance between fission and fusion, affecting mitochondrial function, which plays a crucial role in myocardial function. Therefore, it is interesting to evaluate the effect of cardiac-specific overexpression of MUL1 on myocardial function. Aim: To determine heart functionality in a mouse model with cardio-specific overexpression MUL1 protein. Methods and Results: Male C57BL/Tg transgenic mice with cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of MUL1 (n=10) and control (n=4) were evaluated at 12, 27, and 35 weeks of age. Glucose tolerance curve determination was performed after a 6-hours fast to assess metabolic capacity, treadmill test, and systolic, and diastolic pressure was evaluated by the mouse tail-cuff blood pressure system equipment. The result showed no glucose tolerance curve, and the treadmill test demonstrated no significant changes between groups. However, substantial changes in diastolic function were observed by ultrasound and determination of cardiac hypertrophy proteins by western blot. Conclusions: Cardio-specific overexpression of MUL1 in mice without any treatment affects diastolic cardiac function, thus showing the important role contributed by MUL1 in the heart. Future research should evaluate the effect of cardiomyocyte-specific overexpression of MUL1 in pathological conditions such as a high-fat diet is one of the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Keywords: diastolic dysfunction, hypertrophy cardiac, mitochondrial E3 ubiquitin ligase 1, MUL1

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Authors: Latha Krishnan, Andrew Cobley

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Epoxy resin is most widely used as matrices for composites of aerospace, automotive and electronic applications due to its outstanding mechanical properties. These properties are chiefly predetermined by the chemical structure of the prepolymer and type of hardener but can also be varied by the processing conditions such as prepolymer and hardener mixing, degassing and curing conditions. In this research, the effect of degassing on the curing behaviour and the void occurrence is experimentally evaluated for epoxy /anhydride resin system. The epoxy prepolymer was mixed with an anhydride hardener and accelerator in an appropriate quantity. In order to investigate the effect of degassing on the curing behaviour and void content of the resin, the uncured resin samples were prepared using three different methods: 1) no degassing 2) degassing on prepolymer and 3) degassing on mixed solution of prepolymer and hardener with an accelerator. The uncured resins were tested in differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) to observe the changes in curing behaviour of the above three resin samples by analysing factors such as gel temperature, peak cure temperature and heat of reaction/heat flow in curing. Additionally, the completely cured samples were tested in DSC to identify the changes in the glass transition temperature (Tg) between the three samples. In order to evaluate the effect of degassing on the void content and morphology changes in the cured epoxy resin, the fractured surfaces of cured epoxy resin were examined under the scanning electron microscope (SEM). Also, the changes in the mechanical properties of the cured resin were studied by three-point bending test. It was found that degassing at different stages of resin mixing had significant effects on properties such as glass transition temperature, the void content and void size of the epoxy/anhydride resin system. For example, degassing (vacuum applied on the mixed resin) has shown higher glass transition temperature (Tg) with lower void content.

Keywords: anhydride epoxy, curing behaviour, degassing, void occurrence

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Apostolos Kalatzis, Ashish Teotia, Vishnunarayan Girishan Prabhu, Laura Stanley

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Emotions are functional behaviors influenced by thoughts, stimuli, and other factors that induce neurophysiological changes in the human body. Understanding and classifying emotions are challenging as individuals have varying perceptions of their environments. Therefore, it is crucial that there are publicly available databases and virtual reality (VR) based environments that have been scientifically validated for assessing emotional classification. This study utilized two commercially available VR applications (Guided Meditation VR™ and Richie’s Plank Experience™) to induce acute stress and calm state among participants. Subjective and objective measures were collected to create a validated multimodal dataset and classification scheme for affective state classification. Participants’ subjective measures included the use of the Self-Assessment Manikin, emotional cards and 9 point Visual Analogue Scale for perceived stress, collected using a Virtual Reality Assessment Tool developed by our team. Participants’ objective measures included Electrocardiogram and Respiration data that were collected from 25 participants (15 M, 10 F, Mean = 22.28  4.92). The features extracted from these data included heart rate variability components and respiration rate, both of which were used to train two machine learning models. Subjective responses validated the efficacy of the VR applications in eliciting the two desired affective states; for classifying the affective states, a logistic regression (LR) and a support vector machine (SVM) with a linear kernel algorithm were developed. The LR outperformed the SVM and achieved 93.8%, 96.2%, 93.8% leave one subject out cross-validation accuracy, precision and recall, respectively. The VR assessment tool and data collected in this study are publicly available for other researchers.

Keywords: affective computing, biosignals, machine learning, stress database

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Ya-Ching Fu, An-Kuo Chou, Boon-Fatt Tan, Chi-Nien Chen, Wen-Chien Yang, Pou-Leng Cheong

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Blind oro-/naso-pharyngeal suction and feeding tube placement are very common practices in neonatal intensive care unit. Though esophageal perforation is a rare complication of these instrumentations, its prevalence is highest in extremely premature neonates. Due to its association with significant morbidity (including respiratory deterioration, pneumothorax, and sepsis) and even mortality, it is an important issue to prevent this iatrogenic complication in the field of premature care. We demonstrate an esophageal perforation in an extreme-low-birth-weight neonate after oro-gastric tube placement. This female baby weighing 680 grams was delivered by caesarean section at 25 weeks of gestational age. She initially received oro-tracheal intubation with mechanical ventilation which was smoothly weaned to non-invasive positive-pressure ventilation at 7-day-old. However, after insertion of a 5-French oro-gastric tube, the baby’s condition suddenly worsened with apnea requiring mechanical ventilation. Her chest radiogram showed the oro-gastric tube in right pleural space, and thus another oro-gastric tube was replaced, and its position was radiographically confirmed. The malpositioned tube was then removed. The baby received 2-week course of intravenous antibiotics for her esophageal perforation. Feeding was then reintroduced and increased to full feeds in a smooth course. She was discharged at 107-day-old. Esophageal perforation in newborn is very rare. Sudden respiratory deterioration in a neonate after naso-/oro-gastric tube placement should alarm us to consider esophageal perforation, and further radiological investigation is required for the diagnosis. Tube materials, patient condition, and age are major risk factors of esophageal perforation. The use of softer tube material, such as silicone, in extreme premature baby might prevent this fetal complication.

Keywords: esophageal perforation, preterm, newborn, feeding tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Wafa Toumi, Alessandro Ripalti, Luigi Ricciardiello, Dalila Gargouri, Jamel Kharrat, Abderraouf Cherif, Ahmed Bouhafa, Slim Jarboui, Mohamed Zili, Ridha Khelifa

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Background & aims: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies throughout the world. Several risk factors, both genetic and environmental, including viral infections, have been linked to colorectal carcinogenesis. A few studies report the detection of human polyomavirus JC (JCV) DNA and transformation antigen (T-Ag) in a fraction of the colorectal tumors studied and suggest an association of this virus with CRC. In order to investigate whether such an association of JCV with CRC will hold in a different epidemiological setting, we looked for the presence of JCV DNA and T-Ag expression in a group of Tunisian CRC patients. Methods: Fresh colorectal mucosa biopsies were obtained from 17 healthy volunteers and from both colorectal tumors and adjacent normal tissues of 47 CRC patients. DNA was extracted from fresh biopsies or from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections using the Invitrogen Purelink Genomic DNA mini Kit. A simple PCR and a nested PCR were used to amplify a region of the T-Ag gene. The obtained PCR products revealed a 154 bp and a 98 bp bands, respectively. Specificity was confirmed by sequencing of the PCR products. T-Ag expression was determined by immunohistochemical staining using a mouse monoclonal antibody (clone PAb416) directed against SV40 T-Ag that cross reacts with JCV T-Ag. Results: JCV DNA was found in 12 (25%) and 22 (46%) of the CRC tumors by simple PCR and by nested PCR, respectively. All paired adjacent normal mucosa biopsies were negative for viral DNA. Sequencing of the DNA amplicons obtained confirmed the authenticity of T-Ag sequences. Immunohistochemical staining showed nuclear T-Ag expression in all 22 JCV DNA- positive samples and in 3 additional tumor samples which appeared DNA-negative by PCR. Conclusions: These results suggest an association of JCV with a subpopulation of Tunisian colorectal tumors.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, immunohistochemistry, Polyomavirus JC, PCR

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Authors: Nessreen Y. Ibrahim

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Designing the future according to realistic analytical study for the futuristic market needs can be a milestone strategy to make a huge improvement in developing countries economics. In developing countries, access to high technology and latest science approaches is very limited. The financial problems in low and medium income countries have negative effects on the kind and quality of imported new technologies and application for their markets. Thus, there is a strong need for shifting paradigm thinking in the design process to improve and evolve their development strategy. This paper discusses future possibilities in developing countries, and how they can design their own future according to specific future models FDM (Future Design Models), which established to solve certain economical problems, as well as political and cultural conflicts. FDM is strategic thinking framework provides an improvement in both content and process. The content includes; beliefs, values, mission, purpose, conceptual frameworks, research, and practice, while the process includes; design methodology, design systems, and design managements tools. In this paper the main objective was building an innovative economic model to design a chosen possible futuristic scenario; by understanding the market future needs, analyze real world setting, solve the model questions by future driven design, and finally interpret the results, to discuss to what extent the results can be transferred to the real world. The paper discusses Egypt as a potential case study. Since, Egypt has highly complex economical problems, extra-dynamic political factors, and very rich cultural aspects; we considered Egypt is a very challenging example for applying FDM. The paper results recommended using FDM numerical modeling as a starting point to design the future.

Keywords: developing countries, economic models, future design, possible futures

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Authors: Nichole Patricia Pedrina, Karl Jasper Sumande, Alice Joan Ferrer

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Nogas Island situated in the municipality of Anini-y in the province of Antique is endowed with natural resources especially a thriving marine ecosystem that attracts tourists all year round. But despite its beauty and emerging popularity, the island and its surrounding waters remain vulnerable to degradation brought about by anthropocentric activities. An emphasis on the protection and conservation is paramount in order to ensure environmental sustainability over time. This study was conducted in order to determine the willingness-to-pay (WTP) of the local residents of Anini-y, Antique for the conservation of Nogas Island and its surrounding waters. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) was used to determine the WTP of the study participants. In addition, the study also described the socio-demographic and economic characteristics, the level of awareness, knowledge and attitude towards the conservation and the reasons for the willingness to pay off the residents for the conservation of the island and its surrounding waters. A pilot-tested interview schedule was used to collect data from 320 randomly selected study participants in 8 barangays in the municipality of Anini-y from January to December 2017. Binary logit regression was conducted in order to identify factors affecting the study participants’ WTP. The results revealed that 54.69 percent of the study participants were willing to pay (with adjustment to the level of certainty) for the conservation program. The sex, monthly household income, randomly assigned bid price and the knowledge index were the variables that affected the willingness-to-pay of the study participants for both with and without adjustment to the level of certainty. The monthly mean WTP of the study participants with and without adjustment to the level of certainty were P115 and P104.5, respectively. This study can serve as a guide for the municipality of Anini-y in creating a policy or program that aims to conserve and protect Nogas Island and its surrounding waters.

Keywords: economic valuation, environmental conservation, total economic value, willingness to pay

Procedia PDF Downloads 218