Search results for: stochastic uncertainty analysis

Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Complexity science seeks the understanding of systems adopting diverse theories from various areas. Network analysis has been gaining space and credibility, namely with the biological, social and economic systems. Significant part of the literature focuses only monolayer representations of connections among agents considering one level of their relationships, and excludes other levels of interactions, leading to simplistic results in network analysis. Therefore, this work aims to demonstrate the advantages of the use of multilayer networks for the representation and analysis of networks. For this, we analyzed an interbank network, composed of 42 banks, comparing the centrality measures of the agents (degree and PageRank) resulting from each method (monolayer x multilayer). This proved to be the most reliable and efficient the multilayer analysis for the study of the current networks and highlighted JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank as the most important banks of the analyzed network.

Keywords: complexity, interbank networks, multilayer networks, network analysis

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Authors: T. Watanabe

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Combustion analysis of suspended sodium droplet is performed by solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy conservation equations. The combustion model consists of the pre-ignition and post-ignition models. The reaction rate for the pre-ignition model is based on the chemical kinetics, while that for the post-ignition model is based on the mass transfer rate of oxygen. The calculated droplet temperature is shown to be in good agreement with the existing experimental data. The temperature field in and around the droplet is obtained as well as the droplet shape variation, and the present numerical model is confirmed to be effective for the combustion analysis.

Keywords: analysis, combustion, droplet, sodium

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Authors: Nadezhda Obvintceva

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The article gives the analysis of the concept ‘relation’ from the point of view of its realization in Russian and English languages on the basis of dictionaries articles. The analysis reveals the main difference of representation of this concept in both languages. It is the number of lexemes that express its general meanings. At the end of the article the author gives an explanation of possible causes of the difference and touches upon the issue about analytical phenomena in the vocabulary.

Keywords: concept, comparison, lexeme, meaning, relation, semantics

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Authors: Parisa Hasanpour, Bahram Borooghani, Vahid Asadi

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In the current research, a catastrophic failure of a 304 stainless steel flange at pipeline transportation of ethylene in a petrochemical refinery was studied. Cracking was found in the flange after about 78840h service. Through the chemical analysis, tensile tests in addition to microstructural analysis such as optical microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) on the failed part, it found that the fatigue was responsible for the fracture of the flange, which originated from bumps and depressions on the outer surface and propagated by vibration caused by the working condition.

Keywords: failure analysis, 304 stainless steel, fatigue, flange, petrochemical refinery

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Authors: Benoit Leclerc

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The concept of scripts and the role that crime scripts has been playing in criminology during the last decade is reviewed. Particularly illuminating is the potential use of scripts not only to understand and disrupt offender scripts (e.g., commonly referred as crime scripts) but to capture victim and guardian scripts to increase the likelihood of preventing crime. Similarly, the concept of scripts is applied to forensic science – another field that can benefit from script analysis. First, similar to guardian scripts, script analysis can illuminate the process of completing crime scene investigations for those who investigate (crime scene investigators or other professionals involved in crime scene investigations), and as a result, provide a range of intervention-points to improve the success of these investigations. Second, script analysis can also provide valuable information on offenders’ crime-commission processes for crime scene investigators and highlight a number of ‘contact points’ that could be targeted during investigations.

Keywords: crime scripts, crime scene investigation, script analysis, situational crime prevention

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Authors: Burak Yildirim, Muhsin Tunay Gençoğlu

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A microgrid (MG) is a small power grid composed of localized medium or low level power generation, storage systems, and loads. In this paper, the effects of a MG on power systems voltage stability are shown. The MG model, designed to demonstrate the effects of the MG, was applied to the IEEE 14 bus power system which is widely used in power system stability studies. Eigenvalue and modal analysis methods were used in simulation studies. In the study results, it is seen that MGs affect system voltage stability positively by increasing system voltage instability limit value for buses of a power system in which MG are placed.

Keywords: eigenvalue analysis, microgrid, modal analysis, voltage stability

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Authors: Kimuel Suyat, Francis Aldrine Uy, John Paul Carreon

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The Philippines, composed of many islands, is connected with approximately 8030 bridges. Continuous evaluation of the structural condition of these bridges is needed to safeguard the safety of the general public. With most bridges reaching its design life, retrofitting and replacement may be needed. Concerned government agencies allocate huge costs for periodic monitoring and maintenance of these structures. The rising volume of traffic and aging of these infrastructures is challenging structural engineers to give rise for structural health monitoring techniques. Numerous techniques are already proposed and some are now being employed in other countries. Vibration Analysis is one way. The natural frequency and vibration of a bridge are design criteria in ensuring the stability, safety and economy of the structure. Its natural frequency must not be so high so as not to cause discomfort and not so low that the structure is so stiff causing it to be both costly and heavy. It is well known that the stiffer the member is, the more load it attracts. The frequency must not also match the vibration caused by the traffic loads. If this happens, a resonance occurs. Vibration that matches a systems frequency will generate excitation and when this exceeds the member’s limit, a structural failure will happen. This study presents a method for calculating dynamic fragility through the use of vibration-based monitoring system. Dynamic fragility is the probability that a structural system exceeds a limit state when subjected to dynamic loads. The bridge is modeled in SAP2000 based from the available construction drawings provided by the Department of Public Works and Highways. It was verified and adjusted based from the actual condition of the bridge. The bridge design specifications are also checked using nondestructive tests. The approach used in this method properly accounts the uncertainty of observed values and code-based structural assumptions. The vibration response of the structure due to actual loads is monitored using installed sensors on the bridge. From the determinacy of these dynamic characteristic of a system, threshold criteria can be established and fragility curves can be estimated. This study conducted in relation with the research project between Department of Science and Technology, Mapúa Institute of Technology, and the Department of Public Works and Highways also known as Mapúa-DOST Smart Bridge Project deploys Structural Health Monitoring Sensors at Zamora Bridge. The bridge is selected in coordination with the Department of Public Works and Highways. The structural plans for the bridge are also readily available.

Keywords: structural health monitoring, dynamic characteristic, threshold criteria, traffic loads

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Authors: Olga Maksakova

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A work with unconscious patients after acute brain damages besides special knowledge and practical skills of all the participants requires a very specific organization. A lot of said about team approach in neurorehabilitation, usually as for outpatient mode. Rehabilitologists deal with fixed patient problems or deficits (motion, speech, cognitive or emotional disorder). Team-building means superficial paradigm of management psychology. Linear mode of teamwork fits casual relationships there. Cases with deep altered states of consciousness (vegetative states, coma, and confusion) require non-linear mode of teamwork: recovery of consciousness might not be the goal due to phenomenon uncertainty. Rehabilitation team as Semi-open Complex System includes the patient as a part. Patient's response pattern becomes formed not only with brain deficits but questions-stimuli, context, and inquiring person. Teamwork is sourcing of phenomenology knowledge of patient's processes as Third-person approach is replaced with Second- and after First-person approaches. Here is a chance for real-time change. Patient’s contacts with his own body and outward things create a basement for restoration of consciousness. The most important condition is systematic feedbacks to any minimal movement or vegetative signal of the patient. Up to now, recovery work with the most severe contingent is carried out in the mode of passive physical interventions, while an effective rehabilitation team should include specially trained psychologists and psychotherapists. It is they who are able to create a network of feedbacks with the patient and inter-professional ones building up the team. Characteristics of ‘Team-Patient’ system (TPS) are energy, entropy, and complexity. Impairment of consciousness as the absence of linear contact appears together with a loss of essential functions (low energy), vegetative-visceral fits (excessive energy and low order), motor agitation (excessive energy and excessive order), etc. Techniques of teamwork are different in these cases for resulting optimization of the system condition. Directed regulation of the system complexity is one of the recovery tools. Different signs of awareness appear as a result of system self-organization. Joint meetings are an important part of teamwork. Regular or event-related discussions form the language of inter-professional communication, as well as the patient's shared mental model. Analysis of complex communication process in TPS may be useful for creation of the general theory of consciousness.

Keywords: rehabilitation team, urgent rehabilitation, severe brain damage, consciousness disorders, complex system theory

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Authors: Soham Das

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Oedipus in Oedipus Rex is necessarily a victim of fate and his own psychology. His curiosity brings about his downfall. Ancient Greek plays weren't just portrayals of some obscure tale but were insights into human nature. Oedipus, although a victim of circumstances, digs his own grave by curiously unravelling his past. Jocasta foresees his doom and begs him to stop, but to no avail. The curiosity of Oedipus forces him, almost like a drug, to explore the mystery regarding his birth. This curiosity is not something extraordinary in Oedipus - it is an intrinsic attribute of human nature. Knowledge is not always desired - whether it is Adam or Oedipus, their curiosity caused their eventual downfall. Oedipus was ill-fated since birth. He did not know that Laius was his biological father and therefore killed him. He arrived at Thebes, solved the riddle of the Sphinx, and married Jocasta without knowing that she, in fact, was his biological mother. He begot children and was living happily with his family when a sudden calamity struck Thebes. The calamity, though at first seemed public in nature, but later proved to be very personal for Oedipus. It drives home the fundamental truth about uncertainty of human life. That Laius was slayed by his own son, even after many precautions, proves the helplessness of humans in front of the designs of fate. Oedipus's mutilation of his eyes is also fated. It was committed by him in the heat of the moment and was certainly not a rational decision. It is evident to any modern reader that Oedipus does not have justice. Destiny treats him unfairly. Oedipus, in fact, defends his actions in Oedipus Rex in its sequel Oedipus At Colonus. The research paper discusses the unhappy fate of Oedipus and the role of destiny and his own curiosity in achieving it.

Keywords: ancient Greek drama, Oedipus Rex, Sophocles, destiny

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Mohammed Ahmad Syed

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Underground tunnels are one of the most popular public facilities for various applications such as transportation, water transfer, network utilities and etc. Experience from the past earthquake reveals that the underground tunnels also become vulnerable components and may damage at certain percentage depending on the level of ground shaking and induced phenomena. In this paper a numerical analysis is conducted in evaluating the sensitivity of two types of circular shallow tunnel lining models to wide ranging changes in the geotechnical design parameter. Critical analysis has been presented about the current methods of analysis, structural typology, ground motion characteristics, effect of soil conditions and associated uncertainties on the tunnel integrity. The response of the tunnel is evaluated through 2D non-linear finite element analysis, which critically assesses the impact of increasing levels of seismic loads. The finding from this study offer significant information on improving methods to assess the vulnerability of underground structures.

Keywords: geotechnical design parameter, seismic response, sensitivity analysis, shallow tunnel

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Authors: Mahdi Aghaei, Saeid Jamshidi, Mastaneh Hajipour

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Effective factors on the mechanical wellbore stability are divided in to two categories: 1) Controllable factors, 2) Uncontrollable factors. The purpose of geo-mechanical modeling of wells is to determine the limit of controlled parameters change based on the stress regime at each point and by solving the governing equations the pore-elastic environment around the well. In this research, the mechanical analysis of wellbore stability was carried out for Soroush oilfield. For this purpose, the geo-mechanical model of the field is made using available data. This model provides the necessary parameters for obtaining the distribution of stress around the wellbore. Initially, a basic model was designed to perform various analysis, based on obtained data, using Abaqus software. All of the subsequent sensitivity analysis such as sensitivity analysis on porosity, permeability, etc. was done on the same basic model. The results obtained from these analysis gives various result such as: with the constant geomechanical parameters, and sensitivity analysis on porosity permeability is ineffective. After the most important parameters affecting the wellbore stability and instability are geo-mechanical parameters.

Keywords: wellbore stability, movement, stress, instability

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Authors: N. R. N. Idris, S. Baharom

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A meta-analysis may be performed using aggregate data (AD) or an individual patient data (IPD). In practice, studies may be available at both IPD and AD level. In this situation, both the IPD and AD should be utilised in order to maximize the available information. Statistical advantages of combining the studies from different level have not been fully explored. This study aims to quantify the statistical benefits of including available IPD when conducting a conventional summary-level meta-analysis. Simulated meta-analysis were used to assess the influence of the levels of data on overall meta-analysis estimates based on IPD-only, AD-only and the combination of IPD and AD (mixed data, MD), under different study scenario. The percentage relative bias (PRB), root mean-square-error (RMSE) and coverage probability were used to assess the efficiency of the overall estimates. The results demonstrate that available IPD should always be included in a conventional meta-analysis using summary level data as they would significantly increased the accuracy of the estimates. On the other hand, if more than 80% of the available data are at IPD level, including the AD does not provide significant differences in terms of accuracy of the estimates. Additionally, combining the IPD and AD has moderating effects on the biasness of the estimates of the treatment effects as the IPD tends to overestimate the treatment effects, while the AD has the tendency to produce underestimated effect estimates. These results may provide some guide in deciding if significant benefit is gained by pooling the two levels of data when conducting meta-analysis.

Keywords: aggregate data, combined-level data, individual patient data, meta-analysis

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Authors: Prakash Singh

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The focus of this study is on the use of the SWEAT analysis approach to determine how effectively a school, as an organization, has implemented its curriculum. To gauge the feelings of the teaching staff, unstructured interviews were employed in this study, asking the participants for their ideas and opinions on each of the three identified aspects of the school: instructional materials, media and technology; teachers’ professional competencies; and the curriculum. This investigation was based on the five key components of the SWEAT model: strengths, weaknesses, expectations, abilities, and tensions. The findings of this exploratory study evoke the significance of the SWEAT achievement model as a tool for strategic analysis to be undertaken in any organization. The findings further affirm the usefulness of this analytical tool for human resource development. Employees have expectations, but competency gaps in their professional abilities may hinder them from fulfilling their tasks in terms of their job description. Also, tensions in the working environment can contribute to their experiences of tobephobia (fear of failure). The SWEAT analysis approach detects such shortcomings in any organization and can therefore culminate in the development of programmes to address such concerns. The strategic SWEAT analysis process can provide a clear distinction between success and failure, and between mediocrity and excellence in organizations. However, more research needs to be done on the effectiveness of the SWEAT analysis approach as a strategic analytical tool.

Keywords: SWEAT analysis, strategic analysis, tobephobia, competency gaps

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Authors: Rahmathulla Noufal E.

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Investigating the dynamic responses of high rise structures under the effect of siesmic ground motion is extremely important for the proper analysis and design of multitoried structures. Since the presence of infilled walls strongly influences the behaviour of frame systems in multistoried buildings, there is an increased need for developing guidelines for the analysis and design of infilled frames under the effect of dynamic loads for safe and proper design of buildings. In this manuscript, we evaluate the natural frequencies and natural periods of single bay single storey frames considering the effect of infill walls by using the Eigen value analysis and validating with SAP 2000 (free vibration analysis). Various parameters obtained from the diagonal strut model followed for the free vibration analysis is then compared with the Finite Element model, where infill is modeled as shell elements (four noded). We also evaluated the effect of various parameters on the natural periods of vibration obtained by free vibration analysis in SAP 2000 comparing them with those obtained by the empirical expressions presented in I.S. 1893(Part I)-2002.

Keywords: infilled frame, eigen value analysis, free vibration analysis, diagonal strut model, finite element model, SAP 2000, natural period

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Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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Authors: Xavier Louis, Madhava Soma Sundaram

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The Palk Bay, a narrow strip of water, separates the state of Tamil Nadu in India from north Sri Lanka. The bay, which is 137 km in length and varies from 64 to 137 kilometers in width and is home to more than 580 fish species and chunks of shrimp’s resources, is divided by the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL). The bay, bordering it are five Tamil Nadu districts of India and three Sri Lankan districts and assumes importance as it is one of the areas presenting permanent and serious challenges to both India and Sri Lanka with respect to the fishing rights in the Bay. Fishermen from both sides were enjoying fishing with hormones for centuries. Katchchadeevu is a tiny Island located in the Bay, which was a part of India. After the Katchchadeevu agreement 1974 it became a part of Sri Lanka and a fishing conflict arose between the two countries' fishermen. Fuelling the dispute over Katchatheevu is the overfishing of Indian mechanized trawlers in Palk Bay and the damaging environmental and economic effects of trawling. Since 2008, more than 300 Indian fishermen have been killed by firing by Sri Lankan Navy, nearly 100 fishermen have gone missing and more than 3000 fishermen were arrested and later released after the trials for trespassing into Sri Lankan waters. Currently, more than 120 fishing boats and 29 fishermen are in Sri Lankan custody. This paper attempts to find out the causes of fishing conflict and who has the fishing rights in the mentioned waters, how the international treaties are complied with at the time of arrest and trials, how the arrested fishermen are treated by them and how they suffer from fishermen families without a breadwinner. A Semi-structured interview schedule tool was prepared by the researcher, which is suitable for measuring quantitative and qualitative aspects of the above-mentioned theme. One hundred arrested fishermen were interviewed and recorded their prison experiences in Sri Lanka. The research found that the majority of the fishermen believe that they have the right to fish in the historical water and that the Sri Lankan Naval personnel have brutally attacked the Indian fishermen at the time of the arrest. The majority of the fishermen accepted that they had limited fishing grounds. As a result, they entered Sri Lankan waters for their livelihood. The majority of the fishermen expected that they would also get their belongings back at the time of release, primarily the boats. Most of the arrested fishermen's families face financial crises in the absence of their breadwinners and this situation has created conditions for child labor among the affected families and some fishers migrate to different places for different occupations. The majority of the fishers have trauma about their victimization and face uncertainty in the future of their occupation. We can discuss more the causes and nature of the fishing conflict and the financial and psychological victimization of Indian fishermen in relation to the conflict.

Keywords: palk bay, historical water, fishing conflict, arrested fishermen, victimization

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Authors: Nebojša Janićijević

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At the end of 1970s, Dutch researcher Geert Hofstede, had conducted an enormous empirical research on the differences between national cultures. In his huge research, he had identified four dimensions of national culture according to which national cultures differ and determined the index for every dimension of national culture for each country that took part in his research. The index showed a country’s position on the continuum between the two extreme poles of the cultural dimensions. Since more than 40 years have passed since Hofstede's research, there is a doubt that, due to the changes in national cultures during that period, they are no longer a good basis for research. The aim of this research is to check the validity of Hofstee's indices of national culture The empirical study conducted in the branches of a multinational company in Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark aimed to determine whether Hofstede’s measures of national culture dimensions are still valid. The sample consisted of 155 employees of one multinational company, where 40 employees came from three countries and 35 employees were from Serbia. The questionnaire that analyzed the positions of national cultures according to the Hofstede’s four dimensions was formulated on the basis of the initial Hofstede’s questionnaire, but it was much shorter and significantly simplified comparing to the original questionnaire. Such instrument had already been used in earlier researches. A statistical analysis of the obtained questionnaire results was done by a simple calculation of the frequency of the provided answers. Due to the limitations in methodology, sample size, instrument, and applied statistical methods, the aim of the study was not to explicitly test the accuracy Hofstede’s indexes but to enlighten the general position of the four observed countries in national culture dimensions and their mutual relations. The study results have indicated that the position of the four observed national cultures (Serbia, France, the Netherlands and Denmark) is precisely the same in three out of four dimensions as Hofstede had described in his research. Furthermore, the differences between national cultures and the relative relations between their positions in three dimensions of national culture correspond to Hofstede’s results. The only deviation from Hofstede’s results is concentrated around the masculinity–femininity dimension. In addition, the study revealed that the degree of power distance is a determinant when choosing leadership style. It has been found that national cultures with high power distance, like Serbia and France, favor one of the two authoritative leadership styles. On the other hand, countries with low power distance, such as the Netherlands and Denmark, prefer one of the forms of democratic leadership styles. This confirms Hofstede’s premises about the impact of power distance on leadership style. The key contribution of the study is that Hofstede’s national culture indexes are still a reliable tool for measuring the positions of countries in national culture dimensions, and they can be applied in the cross-cultural research in management. That was at least the case with four observed countries: Serbia, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

Keywords: national culture, leadership styles, power distance, collectivism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: M. A. I Perera, C. R. Wijesinghe, A. R. Weerasinghe

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his study was conducted to review and identify the unsupervised techniques that can be employed to analyze gene expression data in order to identify better subtypes of tumors. Identifying subtypes of cancer help in improving the efficacy and reducing the toxicity of the treatments by identifying clues to find target therapeutics. Process of gene expression data analysis described under three steps as preprocessing, clustering, and cluster validation. Feature selection is important since the genomic data are high dimensional with a large number of features compared to samples. Hierarchical clustering and K Means are often used in the analysis of gene expression data. There are several cluster validation techniques used in validating the clusters. Heatmaps are an effective external validation method that allows comparing the identified classes with clinical variables and visual analysis of the classes.

Keywords: cancer subtypes, gene expression data analysis, clustering, cluster validation

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Authors: A. Mohamed, A. El-Hamalawi, M. Frost, A. Connell

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Often design standards do not provide guidance or formulae for the calculation of stresses on buried pipelines caused by external loads. Frequently engineers rely on other methods and published sources of information to calculate such imposed stresses and a variety of methods can be used. This paper reviews three current approaches to soil pipeline interaction modelling to predict stresses on buried pipelines subjected to soil overburden and traffic loading. The traditional approach to use empirical stress formulas to calculate circumferential bending stresses on pipelines. The alternative approaches considered are the use of a finite element package to compute an estimate of circumferential bending stress and a proprietary stress analysis system (SURFLOAD) to estimate the circumferential bending stress. The results from analysis using the methods are presented and compared to experimental results in terms of predicted and measured circumferential stresses. This study shows that the approach used to assess externally generated stress is important and can lead to an over-conservative analysis. Using FE analysis either through SURFLOAD or a general FE package to predict circumferential stress is the most accurate way to undertake stress analysis due to traffic and soil loads. Although conservative, classical empirical methods will continue to be applied to the analysis of buried pipelines, an opportunity exists, therefore, in many circumstances, to use applied numerical techniques, made possible by advances in finite element analysis.

Keywords: buried pipelines, circumferential bending stress, finite element analysis, soil overburden, soil pipeline interaction analysis (SPIA), traffic loadings

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Authors: Victoria Crynes

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The question of England’s role in Britain is increasingly relevant due to the ongoing rise in citizens identifying as English. Furthermore, the Brexit Referendum was predominantly supported by constituents identifying as English. Few politicians appear to comprehend how Englishness is politically manifested. Politics and the media have depicted English identity as a negative and extremist problem - an inaccurate representation that ignores the breadth of English identifying citizens. This environment prompts the question, 'How are British Politicians Addressing the Modern English Identity Question?' Parliamentary debates, political blogs, and interviews are synthesized to establish a more coherent understanding of the current political attitudes towards English identity, the perceived nature of English identity, and the political manifestation of English representation and governance. Analyzed parliamentary debates addressed the democratic structure of English governance through topics such as English votes for English laws, devolution, and the union. The blogs examined include party-based, multi-author style blogs, and independently authored blogs by politicians, which provide a dynamic and up-to-date representation of party and politician viewpoints. Lastly, fourteen semi-structured interviews of British politicians provide a nuanced perspective on how politicians conceptualize Englishness. Interviewee selection was based on three criteria: (i) Members of Parliament (MP) known for discussing English identity politics, (ii) MPs of strongly English identifying constituencies, (iii) MPs with minimal English identity affiliation. Analysis of parliamentary debates reveals the discussion of English representation has gained little momentum. Many politicians fail to comprehend who the English are, why they desire greater representation and believe that increased recognition of the English would disrupt the unity of the UK. These debates highlight the disconnect of parliament from the disenfranchised English towns. A failure to recognize the legitimacy of English identity politics generates an inability for solution-focused debates to occur. Political blogs demonstrate cross-party recognition of growing English disenfranchisement. The dissatisfaction with British politics derives from multiple factors, including economic decline, shifting community structures, and the delay of Brexit. The left-behind communities have seen little response from Westminster, which is often contrasted to the devolved and louder voices of the other UK nations. Many blogs recognize the need for a political response to the English and lament the lack of party-level initiatives. In comparison, interviews depict an array of local-level initiatives reconnecting MPs to community members. Local efforts include town trips to Westminster, multi-cultural cooking classes, and English language courses. These efforts begin to rebuild positive, local narratives, promote engagement across community sectors, and acknowledge the English voices. These interviewees called for large-scale, political action. Meanwhile, several interviewees denied the saliency of English identity. For them, the term held only extremist narratives. The multi-level analysis reveals continued uncertainty on Englishness within British politics, contrasted with increased recognition of its saliency by politicians. It is paramount that politicians increase discussions on English identity politics to avoid increased alienation of English citizens and to rebuild trust in the abilities of Westminster.

Keywords: British politics, contemporary identity politics and its impacts, English identity, English nationalism, identity politics

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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Authors: Mehravar Javid, James Sexton, S. Taridashti, Joseph Dorer

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Objective: Intimacy is among the most important factors in marital relationships and includes different aspects. Communication skills can enable couples to promote their intimacy. This experimental study was conducted to measure the effectiveness of communication skills using Transactional Analysis (TA) on various dimensions of marital intimacy. Method: The participants in this study were female teachers. Analysis of covariance was recruited in the experimental group (n =15) and control group (n =15) with pre-test and post-test. Random assignment was applied. The experimental group received the Transactional Analysis training program for 9 sessions of 2 hours each week. The instrument was the Marital Intimacy Questionnaire, with 87 items and 9 subscales. Result: The findings suggest that training in Transactional Analysis significantly increased the total score of intimacy except spiritual intimacy on the post-test. Discussion: According to the obtained data, it is concluded that communication skills using Transactional Analysis (TA) training could increase intimacy and improve marital relationships. The study highlights the differential effects on emotional, rational, sexual, and psychological intimacy compared to physical, social/recreational, and relational intimacy over a 9-week period.

Keywords: communication skills, intimacy, marital relationships, transactional analysis

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Authors: Todd Zhou, Mikhail Yurochkin

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Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is receiving increasing amounts of attention in the machine learning research community, boosted by recent technologies, such as autonomous driving and image processing. This newly-burgeoning field has called for the need for more effective and efficient methods for out-of-distribution generalization methods. Without accessing the label information, deploying machine learning models to out-of-distribution domains becomes extremely challenging since it is impossible to evaluate model performance on unseen domains. To tackle this out-of-distribution detection difficulty, we designed a model selection pipeline algorithm and developed a model selection framework with different impurity and randomness measurements to evaluate and choose the best-performing models for out-of-distribution data. By exploring different randomness scores based on predicted probabilities, we adopted the out-of-distribution entropy and developed a custom-designed score, ”CombinedScore,” as the evaluation criterion. This proposed score was created by adding labeled source information into the judging space of the uncertainty entropy score using harmonic mean. Furthermore, the prediction bias was explored through the equality of opportunity violation measurement. We also improved machine learning model performance through model calibration. The effectiveness of the framework with the proposed evaluation criteria was validated on the Folktables American Community Survey (ACS) datasets.

Keywords: model selection, domain generalization, model fairness, randomness measurements, bias index

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Authors: Joy Aworo-Okoroh

Abstract:

Politics is about trust and trust is challenged by the speaker’s ability to manipulate language before the electorate. Critical discourse analysis investigates the role of language in constructing social relationships between a political speaker and his audience. This paper explores the linguistic choices made by President Muhammad Buhari that enshrines his ideologies as well as the socio-political relations of power between him and Nigerians in his speeches. Two speeches of President Buhari –inaugural and Independence Day speeches are analyzed using Norman Fairclough’s perspective on Halliday’s Systemic functional grammar. The analysis is at two levels. The first level of analysis is the identification of transitivity and modality choices in the speeches and how they reveal the covert ideologies. The second analysis is premised on Normal Fairclough’s model, the clauses are analyzed to identify elements of power, hesistation, persuasion, threat and religious statement. It was discovered that Buhari is a dominant character who manipulates the material processes a lot.

Keywords: politics, critical discourse analysis, Norman Fairclough, systemic functional grammar

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Authors: Subodh Kumar, Ramkisan Pawar, Gopal D. Belurkar

Abstract:

This paper describes a study for simple blanking tool. In blanking or piercing operation, punch and die should be concentric for proper cutting. In this study, tolerance analysis method is used to analyze the variation in the press tool assembly. Variation results into the eccentricity in between die and punch due to cumulative tolerance of parts used in assembly. 1D variation analysis were performed by CREO parametric computer aided design (CAD) Software Powered by CETOL 6σ computer aided tolerance analysis software. Use of CAD analysis software given the opportunity to find out the cause of variation in tool assembly. Accordingly, the new specification of tolerance and process setting for die set manufacturing has determined. Tolerance allocation and tolerance analysis method were performed iteratively to conclude that position tolerance as well as size tolerance of hole in top plate for bush and size tolerance of guide pillar were more responsible for eccentricity in punch and die. This work proposes optimum tolerance for press tool assembly parts to achieve 100 % yield for specified .015mm minimum tolerance zone.

Keywords: blanking, GD&T (Geometric Dimension and Tolerancing), DPMU (defects per million unit), press tool, stackup analysis, tolerance allocation, yield percentage

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Authors: Abisola Akinola, Akinsulere Femi

Abstract:

The stock market has continually been a source of economic development in most developing countries. This study examined the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis and profitability of quoted companies in Nigeria using secondary data obtained from the annual reports of forty-two (42) companies. The study employed the multiple regression technique to analyze the relationship between investors’ ratio analysis (measured by dividend per share and earning per share) and profitability (measured by the return on equity). The results from the analysis show that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by earnings per share, have a positive and significant impact on profitability. However, the study noted that investors’ ratio analysis, when measured by dividend per share, tend to have a positive impact on profitability but it is statistically insignificant. By implication, investors and other stakeholders that are interested in investing in stocks can predict the earning capacity of listed firms in the stock market.

Keywords: dividend per share, earnings per share, profitability, return on equity

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Peyman Sheikholharam Mashhadi

Abstract:

Difficulties in analyzing real world images in classical image processing and machine vision framework have motivated researchers towards considering the biology-based vision. It is a common belief that mammalian visual cortex has been adapted to the statistics of the real world images through the evolution process. There are two well-known successful models of mammalian visual cortical cells: Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Independent Subspace Analysis (ISA). In this paper, we statistically analyze the dependencies which remain in the components after applying these models to the natural images. Also, we investigate the response of feature detectors to gratings with various parameters in order to find optimal parameters of the feature detectors. Finally, the selectiveness of feature detectors to phase, in both models is considered.

Keywords: statistics, independent component analysis, independent subspace analysis, phase, natural images

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Authors: Blair D. Macdonald

Abstract:

After nearly one hundred years of its origin, foundational quantum mechanics remains one of the greatest unexplained mysteries in physicists today. Within this time, chaos theory and its geometry, the fractal, has developed. In this paper, the propagation behaviour with an iteration of a simple fractal, the Koch Snowflake, was described and analysed. From an arbitrary observation point within the fractal set, the fractal propagates forward by oscillation—the focus of this study and retrospectively behind by exponential growth from a point beginning. It propagates a potentially infinite exponential oscillating sinusoidal wave of discrete triangle bits sharing many characteristics of light and quantum entities. The model's wave speed is potentially constant, offering insights into the perception and a direction of time where, to an observer, when travelling at the frontier of propagation, time may slow to a stop. In isolation, the fractal is a superposition of component bits where position and scale present a problem of location. In reality, this problem is experienced within fractal landscapes or fields where 'position' is only 'known' by the addition of information or markers. The quantum' measurement problem', 'uncertainty principle,' 'entanglement,' and the classical-quantum interface are addressed; these are a problem of scale invariance associated with isolated fractality. Dual forward and retrospective perspectives of the fractal model offer the opportunity for unification between quantum mechanics and cosmological mathematics, observations, and conjectures. Quantum and cosmological problems may be different aspects of the one fractal geometry.

Keywords: measurement problem, observer, entanglement, unification

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Authors: Baldev Setia, Raj Rajeshwari, Maneesh Kumar

Abstract:

Present paper is an analysis of water transmission mains failed due to surge analysis by using basic software known as Surge Analysis Program (SAP). It is a real time failure case study of a pipe laid in Una, Himachal Pradesh. The transmission main is a 13 kilometer long pipe with 7.9 kilometers as pumping main and 5.1 kilometers as gravitational main. The analysis deals with mainly pumping mains. The results are available in two text files. Besides, several files are prepared with specific view to obtain results in a graphical form. These results help to observe the pressure difference and surge occurrence at different locations along the pipe profile, which help to redesign the transmission main with different but suitable safety measures against possible surge. A technically viable and economically feasible design has been provided as per the relevant manual and standard code of practice.

Keywords: surge, water hammer, transmission mains, SAP 2000

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Baldev Setia, Raj Rajeshwari, Maneesh Kumar

Abstract:

Present paper is an analysis of water transmission mains failed due to surge analysis by using basic software known as Surge Analysis Program (SAP). It is a real time failure case study of a pipe laid in Una, Himachal Pradesh. The transmission main is a 13 kilometres long pipe with 7.9 kilometres as pumping main and 5.1 kilometres as gravitational main. The analysis deals with mainly pumping mains. The results are available in two text files. Besides, several files are prepared with specific view to obtain results in a graphical form. These results help to observe the pressure difference and surge occurrence at different locations along the pipe profile, which help to redesign the transmission main with different but suitable safety measures against possible surge. A technically viable and economically feasible design has been provided as per the relevant manual and standard code of practice.

Keywords: surge, water hammer, transmission mains, SAP 2000

Procedia PDF Downloads 401