Search results for: Tracey West
127 The Effect of Social Media Influencer on Boycott Participation through Attitude toward the Offending Country in a Situational Animosity Context
Authors: Hsing-Hua Stella Chang, Mong-Ching Lin, Cher-Min Fong
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Using surrogate boycotts as a coercive tactic to force the offending party into changing its approaches has been increasingly significant over the last several decades, and is expected to increase in the future. Research shows that surrogate boycotts are often triggered by controversial international events, and particular foreign countries serve as the offending party in the international marketplace. In other words, multinational corporations are likely to become surrogate boycott targets in overseas markets because of the animosity between their home and host countries. Focusing on the surrogate boycott triggered by a severe situation animosity, this research aims to examine how social media influencers (SMIs) serving as electronic key opinion leaders (EKOLs) in an international crisis facilitate and organize a boycott, and persuade consumers to participate in the boycott. This research suggests that SMIs could be a particularly important information source in a surrogate boycott sparked by a situation of animosity. This research suggests that under such a context, SMIs become a critical information source for individuals to enhance and update their understanding of the event because, unlike traditional media, social media serve as a platform for instant and 24-hour non-stop information access and dissemination. The Xinjiang cotton event was adopted as the research context, which was viewed as an ongoing inter-country conflict, reflecting a crisis, which provokes animosity against the West. Through online panel services, both studies recruited Mainland Chinese nationals to be respondents to the surveys. The findings show that: 1. Social media influencer message is positively related to a negative attitude toward the offending country. 2. Attitude toward the offending country is positively related to boycotting participation. To address the unexplored question – of the effect of social media influencer influence on consumer participation in boycotts, this research presents a finer-grained examination of boycott motivation, with a special focus on a situational animosity context. This research is split into two interrelated parts. In the first part, this research shows that attitudes toward the offending country can be socially constructed by the influence of social media influencers in a situational animosity context. The study results show that consumers perceive different strengths of social pressure related to various levels of influencer messages and thus exhibit different levels of attitude toward the offending country. In the second part, this research further investigates the effect of attitude toward the offending country on boycott participation. The study findings show that such attitude exacerbated the effect of social media influencer messages on boycott participation in a situation of animosity.Keywords: animosity, social media marketing, boycott, attitude toward the offending country
Procedia PDF Downloads 112126 Conditional Relation between Migration, Demographic Shift and Human Development in India
Authors: Rakesh Mishra, Rajni Singh, Mukunda Upadhyay
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Since the last few decades, the prima facie of development has shifted towards the working population in India. There has been a paradigm shift in the development approach with the realization that the present demographic dividend has to be harnessed for sustainable development. Rapid urbanization and improved socioeconomic characteristics experienced within its territory has catalyzed various forms of migration into it, resulting in massive transference of workforce between its states. Workforce in any country plays a very crucial role in deciding development of both the places, from where they have out-migrated and the place they are residing currently. In India, people are found to be migrating from relatively less developed states to a well urbanized and developed state for satisfying their neediness. Linking migration to HDI at place of destination, the regression coefficient (β ̂) shows affirmative association between them, because higher the HDI of the place would be, higher would be chance of earning and hence likeliness of the migrants would be more to choose that place as a new destination and vice versa. So the push factor is compromised by the cost of rearing and provides negative impulse on the in migrants letting down their numbers to metro cities or megacities of the states but increasing their mobility to the suburban areas and vice versa. The main objective of the study is to check the role of migration in deciding the dividend of the place of destination as well as people at the place of their usual residence with special focus to highly urban states in India. Idealized scenario of Indian migrants refers to some new theories in making. On analyzing the demographic dividend of the places we got to know that Uttar Pradesh provides maximum dividend to Maharashtra, West Bengal and Delhi, and the demographic divided of migrants are quite comparable to the native’s shares in the demographic dividend in these places. On analyzing the data from National Sample Survey 64th round and Census of India-2001, we have observed that for males in rural areas, the share of unemployed person declined by 9 percentage points (from 45% before migration to 36 % after migration) and for females in rural areas the decline was nearly 12 percentage points (from 79% before migration to 67% after migration. It has been observed that the shares of unemployed males in both rural and urban areas, which were significant before migration, got reduced after migration while the share of unemployed females in the rural as well as in the urban areas remained almost negligible both for before and after migration. So increase in the number of employed after migration provides an indication of changes in the associated cofactors like health and education of the place of destination and arithmetically to the place from where they have migrated out. This paper presents the evidence on the patterns of prevailing migration dynamics and corresponding demographic benefits in India and its states, examines trends and effects, and discusses plausible explanations.Keywords: migration, demographic shift, human development index, multilevel analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 388125 The Torah Scroll of the National Library of the Kingdom of Morocco: Parchment Support and Black Ink Analytical Study
Authors: Oubelkacem Yacine, El Bast Hassan, El Bakkali Abdelmajid, Lamhasni Taibi, Ettakni Mahmoud, Ait Lyazidi Saadia, Haddad Mustapha, Ben-Ncer Abdelouahed, El Ferrane Mohammed, Boufarra Abdelkrim
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The present work relates to an on-site and completely non-invasive investigation of one of the most famous west Mediterranean Torah Scroll housed at the National Library of the Kingdom of Morocco. The scroll is 26 m long and consists of 143 parchment sheets of 59 cm x 19 cm, exhibiting only black writings; it is of unknown age. The artifact has been restored by the curator staff of the library. The investigation exploring separately the parchment support and the writing black ink aims at: i) the examination of the parchment conservation/degradation state, ii) the identification of the black ink and iii) the identification of the parchment handcrafting materials. For this purpose, the analyses have been based on combining all of elemental XRF and structural Raman, ATR-FT Infrared Red and Fiber Optical Reflectance spectroscopies, in addition to chroma-metric and pH measurements. pH measurements showing values around 6.5 are in concordance with the absence of any visual corrosion related to the parchment acidity. However, on the basis of the relative intensities and frequency shift of amid I (AI) and amid II (AII) vibrational bands of the collagen, ATR-FTIR spectra revealed diffuse hydrolysis and gelatinization of the parchment writing support; diffuse and non-homogeny degradation by gelatinization has been also confirmed by the IG gelatinization index deduced from the NIR bands on the FOR spectra. This IG index, defined as the ratio I (6860 cm-1) / I (6685 cm-1), ranges in the interval 0.98 – 1 and highlights collagen degradation at the molecular level. Sequentially Shifted Excitation Raman measurements (SSERS) crossed to X-ray fluorescence (XRF) ones on the black writings revealed that the black ink used is an iron-copper gall one, while FOR spectra are typical of pure metal gall inks. These later reflectance measurements exclude, thus, any intentional addition of carbon black to the ink recipe. Moreover, no lead white had been used while pre-drawing the writing lines. On another side, ATR-FTIR measurements highlighted the presence of oxalates as ink degradation products. Considering the parchment handcrafting, the combination of XRF and ATR-FTIR measurements led to the assumption that this writing support had been prepared according to ancient Middle East practices; the parchment infrared fingerprint seems identical to that of the Dead Sea scroll. The present multi-technical analyses are the first ones performed on an ancient Judaic written parchment of Morocco; it is under furthering. The investigation will be extended to other parchments belonging to the Jewish Cultural Heritage Museum of Morocco in Casablanca.Keywords: torah scroll, parchment, black ink, non-invasive analyses, XRF/ATR-FTIR/RAMAN/FORS
Procedia PDF Downloads 86124 Clastic Sequence Stratigraphy of Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous Formations of Jaisalmer Basin, Rajasthan
Authors: Himanshu Kumar Gupta
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The Jaisalmer Basin is one of the parts of the Rajasthan basin in northwestern India. The presence of five major unconformities/hiatuses of varying span i.e. at the top of Archean basement, Cambrian, Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Eocene have created the foundation for constructing a sequence stratigraphic framework. Based on basin formative tectonic events and their impact on sedimentation processes three first-order sequences have been identified in Rajasthan Basin. These are Proterozoic-Early Cambrian rift sequence, Permian to Middle-Late Eocene shelf sequence and Pleistocene - Recent sequence related to Himalayan Orogeny. The Permian to Middle Eocene I order sequence is further subdivided into three-second order sequences i.e. Permian to Late Jurassic II order sequence, Early to Late Cretaceous II order sequence and Paleocene to Middle-Late Eocene II order sequence. In this study, Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous sequence was identified and log-based interpretation of smaller order T-R cycles have been carried out. A log profile from eastern margin to western margin (up to Shahgarh depression) has been taken. The depositional environment penetrated by the wells interpreted from log signatures gave three major facies association. The blocky and coarsening upward (funnel shape), the blocky and fining upward (bell shape) and the erratic (zig-zag) facies representing distributary mouth bar, distributary channel and marine mud facies respectively. Late Jurassic Formation (Baisakhi-Bhadasar) and Early Cretaceous Formation (Pariwar) shows a lesser number of T-R cycles in shallower and higher number of T-R cycles in deeper bathymetry. Shallowest well has 3 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 2 T-R cycles in Pariwar, whereas deeper well has 4 T-R cycles in Baisakhi-Bhadasar and 8 T-R cycles in Pariwar Formation. The Maximum Flooding surfaces observed from the stratigraphy analysis indicate major shale break (high shale content). The study area is dominated by the alternation of shale and sand lithologies, which occurs in an approximate ratio of 70:30. A seismo-geological cross section has been prepared to understand the stratigraphic thickness variation and structural disposition of the strata. The formations are quite thick to the west, the thickness of which reduces as we traverse towards the east. The folded and the faulted strata indicated the compressional tectonics followed by the extensional tectonics. Our interpretation is supported with seismic up to second order sequence indicates - Late Jurassic sequence is a Highstand Systems Tract (Baisakhi - Bhadasar formations), and the Early Cretaceous sequence is Regressive to Lowstand System Tract (Pariwar Formation).Keywords: Jaisalmer Basin, sequence stratigraphy, system tract, T-R cycle
Procedia PDF Downloads 136123 Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Land Use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on DMSP/OLS Data
Authors: Liang Zhou, Qinke Sun
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Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, using long-term nighttime lighting data from DMSP/OLS from 1992 to 2012, support vector machine classification (SVM) was used to quantitatively extract urban built-up areas of economic belts, and spatial analysis of expansion intensity index, standard deviation ellipse, etc. was introduced. The model conducts detailed and in-depth discussions on the strength, direction, and type of the expansion of the middle and lower reaches of the economic belt and the key node cities. The results show that: (1) From 1992 to 2012, the built-up areas of the major cities in the Yangtze River Valley showed a rapid expansion trend. The built-up area expanded by 60,392 km², and the average annual expansion rate was 31%, that is, from 9615 km² in 1992 to 70007 km² in 2012. The spatial gradient analysis of the watershed shows that the expansion of urban built-up areas in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin takes Shanghai as the leading force, and the 'bottom-up' model shows an expanding pattern of 'upstream-downstream-middle-range' declines. The average annual rate of expansion is 36% and 35%, respectively. 17% of which the midstream expansion rate is about 50% of the upstream and downstream. (2) The analysis of expansion intensity shows that the urban expansion intensity in the Yangtze River Basin has generally shown an upward trend, the downstream region has continued to rise, and the upper and middle reaches have experienced different amplitude fluctuations. To further analyze the strength of urban expansion at key nodes, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan in the upper and middle reaches maintain a high degree of consistency with the intensity of regional expansion. Node cities with Shanghai as the core downstream continue to maintain a high level of expansion. (3) The standard deviation ellipse analysis shows that the overall center of gravity of the Yangtze River basin city is located in Anqing City, Anhui Province, and it showed a phenomenon of reciprocating movement from 1992 to 2012. The nighttime standard deviation ellipse distribution range increased from 61.96 km² to 76.52 km². The growth of the major axis of the ellipse was significantly larger than that of the minor axis. It had obvious east-west axiality, in which the nighttime lights in the downstream area occupied in the entire luminosity scale urban system leading position.Keywords: urban space, support vector machine, spatial characteristics, night lights, Yangtze River Economic Belt
Procedia PDF Downloads 114122 Bedouin of Silicon Wadi: A Case Study Analysis of the Multi-Level Perspectives and Factors Affecting Bedouin Entrepreneurialism as Obstacles to Entry into the Israeli High-Tech Industry
Authors: Frazer G. Thompson
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Israel is a nation of cultural and historical diversity, yet the success factors for a modern Bedouin-Arab high-tech entrepreneur seem to be different from those of other Jewish-Israeli citizens. The purpose of this descriptive narrative case study is to explore how an Arab-Israeli all Negev-Bedouin technology company has succeeded in the Israeli high-tech industry by utilizing technology and engineering career opportunities available to Bedouin youth for ‘Sadel Tech,’ at Be’er-Sheva, the Negev, Israel. Methods: The strategy of inquiry seeks to explore real-life contextual understandings, multi-level perspectives, and the cultural influences of personal, community, educational, and entrepreneurial factors. The research methodology includes in-depth one-on-one interviews, focus group sessions, and overt observation to explore the meaning and understanding of the constructs toward determining the effect all or a few of the elements may have on the overall success factors of the company. Results: Study results indicate that the state-run educational system in Israel fails to adequately integrate important aspects of Bedouin culture into the learning environment. However, Bedouin entrepreneurs are finding ways to compensate for these inadequacies by utilizing non-traditional methods of teaching, learning, and doing business. Government incentives for Bedouin start-ups are also recognized as contributors. Employees of Sadel live and work in the Negev, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank, further informing the study that the traditions of tribal etiquette continue to contribute to modern Bedouin-Arab business culture. Conclusion: Bedouin's business success in Israel is a multi-dimensional concept. While cultural acumen plays a prominent and unique role for both Arab-Israelis and Jewish-Israelis in economic and entrepreneurial pursuits, the marginalization of the Bedouin continues to contribute to the lack of educational and professional opportunities for Bedouin in Israel. Although recognized as important at the government level, programs necessary to implement the infrastructure required to support Bedouin entrepreneurship in Israel remain infantile. The Israeli Government is providing opportunities through grants and other incentives for Bedouin entrepreneurial start-ups, indicating that Israel has recognized the impact of this growing demographic. However, although many Bedouin graduates from University each year with advanced degrees, opportunities for Bedouin within the Israeli high-tech sector remain scarce.Keywords: Bedouin education, Bedouin entrepreneur, economic anthropology, ethnic business opportunities, Israeli tech, Silicon Wadi
Procedia PDF Downloads 121121 Assessment of Current and Future Opportunities of Chemical and Biological Surveillance of Wastewater for Human Health
Authors: Adam Gushgari
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The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has catalyzed the rapid adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) methodologies both domestically and internationally. To support the rapid scale-up of pandemic-response wastewater surveillance systems, multiple federal agencies (i.e. US CDC), non-government organizations (i.e. Water Environment Federation), and private charities (i.e. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) have funded over $220 million USD supporting development and expanding equitable access of surveillance methods. Funds were primarily distributed directly to municipalities under the CARES Act (90.6%), followed by academic projects (7.6%), and initiatives developed by private companies (1.8%). In addition to federal funding for wastewater monitoring primarily conducted at wastewater treatment plants, state/local governments and private companies have leveraged wastewater sampling to obtain health and lifestyle data on student, prison inmate, and employee populations. We explore the viable paths for expansion of the WBE m1ethodology across a variety of analytical methods; the development of WBE-specific samplers and real-time wastewater sensors; and their application to various governments and private sector industries. Considerable investment in, and public acceptance of WBE suggests the methodology will be applied to other future notifiable diseases and health risks. Early research suggests that WBE methods can be applied to a host of additional “biological insults” including communicable diseases and pathogens, such as influenza, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, mycotoxin exposure, hepatitis, dengue, West Nile, Zika, and yellow fever. Interest in chemical insults is also likely, providing community health and lifestyle data on narcotics consumption, use of pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCP), PFAS and hazardous chemical exposure, and microplastic exposure. Successful application of WBE to monitor analytes correlated with carcinogen exposure, community stress prevalence, and dietary indicators has also been shown. Additionally, technology developments of in situ wastewater sensors, WBE-specific wastewater samplers, and integration of artificial intelligence will drastically change the landscape of WBE through the development of “smart sewer” networks. The rapid expansion of the WBE field is creating significant business opportunities for professionals across the scientific, engineering, and technology industries ultimately focused on community health improvement.Keywords: wastewater surveillance, wastewater-based epidemiology, smart cities, public health, pandemic management, substance abuse
Procedia PDF Downloads 108120 Inherent Difficulties in Countering Islamophobia
Authors: Imbesat Daudi
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Islamophobia, which is a billion-dollar industry, is widespread, especially in the United States, Europe, India, Israel, and countries that have Muslim minorities at odds with their governmental policies. Hatred of Islam in the West did not evolve spontaneously; it was methodically created. Islamophobia's current format has been designed to spread on its own, find a space in the Western psyche, and resist its eradication. Hatred has been sustained by neoconservative ideologues and their allies, which are supported by the mainstream media. Social scientists have evaluated how ideas spread, why any idea can go viral, and where new ideas find space in our brains. This was possible because of the advances in the computational power of software and computers. Spreading of ideas, including Islamophobia, follows a sine curve; it has three phases: An initial exploratory phase with a long lag period, an explosive phase if ideas go viral, and the final phase when ideas find space in the human psyche. In the initial phase, the ideas are quickly examined in a center in the prefrontal lobe. When it is deemed relevant, it is sent for evaluation to another center of the prefrontal lobe; there, it is critically examined. Once it takes a final shape, the idea is sent as a final product to a center in the occipital lobe. This center cannot critically evaluate ideas; it can only defend them from its critics. Counterarguments, no matter how scientific, are automatically rejected. Therefore, arguments that could be highly effective in the early phases are counterproductive once they are stored in the occipital lobe. Anti-Islamophobic intellectuals have done a very good job of countering Islamophobic arguments. However, they have not been as effective as neoconservative ideologues who have promoted anti-Muslim rhetoric that was based on half-truths, misinformation, or outright lies. The failure is partly due to the support pro-war activists receive from the mainstream media, state institutions, mega-corporations engaged in violent conflicts, and think tanks that provide Islamophobic arguments. However, there are also scientific reasons why anti-Islamophobic thinkers have been less effective. There are different dynamics of spreading ideas once they are stored in the occipital lobe. The human brain is incapable of evaluating further once it accepts ideas as its own; therefore, a different strategy is required to be effective. This paper examines 1) why anti-Islamophobic intellectuals have failed in changing the minds of non-Muslims and 2) the steps of countering hatred. Simply put, a new strategy is needed that can effectively counteract hatred of Islam and Muslims. Islamophobia is a disease that requires strong measures. Fighting hatred is always a challenge, but if we understand why Islamophobia is taking root in the twenty-first century, one can succeed in challenging Islamophobic arguments. That will need a coordinated effort of Intellectuals, writers and the media.Keywords: islamophobia, Islam and violence, anti-islamophobia, demonization of Islam
Procedia PDF Downloads 48119 Mapping Intertidal Changes Using Polarimetry and Interferometry Techniques
Authors: Khalid Omari, Rene Chenier, Enrique Blondel, Ryan Ahola
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Northern Canadian coasts have vulnerable and very dynamic intertidal zones with very high tides occurring in several areas. The impact of climate change presents challenges not only for maintaining this biodiversity but also for navigation safety adaptation due to the high sediment mobility in these coastal areas. Thus, frequent mapping of shorelines and intertidal changes is of high importance. To help in quantifying the changes in these fragile ecosystems, remote sensing provides practical monitoring tools at local and regional scales. Traditional methods based on high-resolution optical sensors are often used to map intertidal areas by benefiting of the spectral response contrast of intertidal classes in visible, near and mid-infrared bands. Tidal areas are highly reflective in visible bands mainly because of the presence of fine sand deposits. However, getting a cloud-free optical data that coincide with low tides in intertidal zones in northern regions is very difficult. Alternatively, the all-weather capability and daylight-independence of the microwave remote sensing using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can offer valuable geophysical parameters with a high frequency revisit over intertidal zones. Multi-polarization SAR parameters have been used successfully in mapping intertidal zones using incoherence target decomposition. Moreover, the crustal displacements caused by ocean tide loading may reach several centimeters that can be detected and quantified across differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Soil moisture change has a significant impact on both the coherence and the backscatter. For instance, increases in the backscatter intensity associated with low coherence is an indicator for abrupt surface changes. In this research, we present primary results obtained following our investigation of the potential of the fully polarimetric Radarsat-2 data for mapping an inter-tidal zone located on Tasiujaq on the south-west shore of Ungava Bay, Quebec. Using the repeat pass cycle of Radarsat-2, multiple seasonal fine quad (FQ14W) images are acquired over the site between 2016 and 2018. Only 8 images corresponding to low tide conditions are selected and used to build an interferometric stack of data. The observed displacements along the line of sight generated using HH and VV polarization are compared with the changes noticed using the Freeman Durden polarimetric decomposition and Touzi degree of polarization extrema. Results show the consistency of both approaches in their ability to monitor the changes in intertidal zones.Keywords: SAR, degree of polarization, DInSAR, Freeman-Durden, polarimetry, Radarsat-2
Procedia PDF Downloads 137118 MBES-CARIS Data Validation for the Bathymetric Mapping of Shallow Water in the Kingdom of Bahrain on the Arabian Gulf
Authors: Abderrazak Bannari, Ghadeer Kadhem
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The objectives of this paper are the validation and the evaluation of MBES-CARIS BASE surface data performance for bathymetric mapping of shallow water in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The latter is an archipelago with a total land area of about 765.30 km², approximately 126 km of coastline and 8,000 km² of marine area, located in the Arabian Gulf, east of Saudi Arabia and west of Qatar (26° 00’ N, 50° 33’ E). To achieve our objectives, bathymetric attributed grid files (X, Y, and depth) generated from the coverage of ship-track MBSE data with 300 x 300 m cells, processed with CARIS-HIPS, were downloaded from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Then, brought into ArcGIS and converted into a raster format following five steps: Exportation of GEBCO BASE surface data to the ASCII file; conversion of ASCII file to a points shape file; extraction of the area points covering the water boundary of the Kingdom of Bahrain and multiplying the depth values by -1 to get the negative values. Then, the simple Kriging method was used in ArcMap environment to generate a new raster bathymetric grid surface of 30×30 m cells, which was the basis of the subsequent analysis. Finally, for validation purposes, 2200 bathymetric points were extracted from a medium scale nautical map (1:100 000) considering different depths over the Bahrain national water boundary. The nautical map was scanned, georeferenced and overlaid on the MBES-CARIS generated raster bathymetric grid surface (step 5 above), and then homologous depth points were selected. Statistical analysis, expressed as a linear error at the 95% confidence level, showed a strong correlation coefficient (R² = 0.96) and a low RMSE (± 0.57 m) between the nautical map and derived MBSE-CARIS depths if we consider only the shallow areas with depths of less than 10 m (about 800 validation points). When we consider only deeper areas (> 10 m) the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.73 and the RMSE is equal to ± 2.43 m while if we consider the totality of 2200 validation points including all depths, the correlation coefficient is still significant (R² = 0.81) with satisfactory RMSE (± 1.57 m). Certainly, this significant variation can be caused by the MBSE that did not completely cover the bottom in several of the deeper pockmarks because of the rapid change in depth. In addition, steep slopes and the rough seafloor probably affect the acquired MBSE raw data. In addition, the interpolation of missed area values between MBSE acquisition swaths-lines (ship-tracked sounding data) may not reflect the true depths of these missed areas. However, globally the results of the MBES-CARIS data are very appropriate for bathymetric mapping of shallow water areas.Keywords: bathymetry mapping, multibeam echosounder systems, CARIS-HIPS, shallow water
Procedia PDF Downloads 381117 Assessment of the Environmental Compliance at the Jurassic Production Facilities towards HSE MS Procedures and Kuwait Environment Public Authority Regulations
Authors: Fatemah Al-Baroud, Sudharani Shreenivas Kshatriya
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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) is one of the companies for gas & oil production in Kuwait. The oil and gas industry is truly global; with operations conducted in every corner of the globe, the global community will rely heavily on oil and gas supplies. KOC has made many commitments to protect all due to KOC’s operations and operational releases. As per KOC’s strategy, the substantial increase in production activities will bring many challenges in managing various environmental hazards and stresses in the company. In order to handle those environmental challenges, the need of implementing effectively the health, safety, and environmental management system (HSEMS) is significant. And by implementing the HSEMS system properly, the environmental aspects of the activities, products, and services were identified, evaluated, and controlled in order to (i) Comply with local regulatory and other obligatory requirements; (ii) Comply with company policy and business requirements; and (iii) Reduce adverse environmental impact, including adverse impact to company reputation. Assessments for the Jurassic Production Facilities are being carried out as a part of the KOC HSEMS procedural requirement and monitoring the implementation of the relevant HSEMS procedures in the facilities. The assessments have been done by conducting series of theme audits using KOC’s audit protocol at JPFs. The objectives of the audits are to evaluate the compliance of the facilities towards the implementation of environmental procedures and the status of the KEPA requirement at all JPFs. The list of the facilities that were covered during the theme audit program are the following: (1) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – Sabriya (2) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – East Raudhatian (3) Jurassic Production Facility (JPF) – West Raudhatian (4)Early Production Facility (EPF 50). The auditing process comprehensively focuses on the application of KOC HSE MS procedures at JPFs and their ability to reduce the resultant negative impacts on the environment from the operations. Number of findings and observations were noted and highlighted in the audit reports and sent to all concerned controlling teams. The results of these audits indicated that the facilities, in general view, were in line with KOC HSE Procedures, and there were commitments in documenting all the HSE issues in the right records and plans. Further, implemented several control measures at JPFs that minimized/reduced the environmental impact, such as SRU were installed for sulphur recovery. Future scope and monitoring audit after a sufficient period of time will be carried out in conjunction with the controlling teams in order to verify the current status of the recommendations and evaluate the contractors' performance towards the required actions in preserving the environment.Keywords: assessment of the environmental compliance, environmental and social impact assessment, kuwait environment public authority regulations, health, safety and environment management procedures, jurassic production facilities
Procedia PDF Downloads 186116 The Role of University in High-Level Human Capital Cultivation in China’s West Greater Bay Area
Authors: Rochelle Yun Ge
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University has played an active role in the country’s development in China. There has been an increasing research interest on the development of higher education cooperation, talent cultivation and attraction, and innovation in the regional development. The Triple Helix model, which indicates that regional innovation and development can be engendered by collaboration among university, industry and government, is often adopted as research framework. The research using triple helix model emphasizes the active and often leading role of university in knowledge-based economy. Within this framework, universities are conceptualized as key institutions of knowledge production, transmission and transference potentially making critical contributions to regional development. Recent research almost uniformly consistent in indicating the high-level research labours (i.e., doctoral, post-doctoral researchers and academics) as important actors in the innovation ecosystem with their cross-geographical human capital and resources presented. In 2019, the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) was officially launched as an important strategy by the Chinese government to boost the regional development of the Pearl River Delta and to support the realization of “One Belt One Road” strategy. Human Capital formation is at the center of this plan. One of the strategic goals of the GBA development is set to evolve into an international educational hub and innovation center with high-level talents. A number of policies have been issued to attract and cultivate human resources in different GBA cities, in particular for the high-level R&D (research and development) talents such as doctoral and post-doctoral researchers. To better understand the development of high-level talents hub in the GBA, more empirical considerations should be given to explore the approaches of talents cultivation and attraction in the GBA. What remains to explore is the ways to better attract, train, support and retain these talents in the cross-systems context. This paper aims to investigate the role of university in human capital development under China’s national agenda of GBA integration through the lens of universities and actors. Two flagship comprehensive universities are selected to be the cases and 30 interviews with university officials, research leaders, post-doctors and doctoral candidates are used for analysis. In particular, we look at in what ways have universities aligned their strategies and practices to the Chinese government’s GBA development strategy? What strategies and practices have been developed by universities for the cultivation and attraction of high-level research labor? And what impacts the universities have made for the regional development? The main arguments of this research highlights the specific ways in which universities in smaller sub-regions can collaborate in high-level human capital formation and the role policy can play in facilitating such collaborations.Keywords: university, human capital, regional development, triple-helix model
Procedia PDF Downloads 113115 Features of Fossil Fuels Generation from Bazhenov Formation Source Rocks by Hydropyrolysis
Authors: Anton G. Kalmykov, Andrew Yu. Bychkov, Georgy A. Kalmykov
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Nowadays, most oil reserves in Russia and all over the world are hard to recover. That is the reason oil companies are searching for new sources for hydrocarbon production. One of the sources might be high-carbon formations with unconventional reservoirs. Bazhenov formation is a huge source rock formation located in West Siberia, which contains unconventional reservoirs on some of the areas. These reservoirs are formed by secondary processes with low predicting ratio. Only one of five wells is drilled through unconventional reservoirs, in others kerogen has low thermal maturity, and they are of low petroliferous. Therefore, there was a request for tertiary methods for in-situ cracking of kerogen and production of oil. Laboratory experiments of Bazhenov formation rock hydrous pyrolysis were used to investigate features of the oil generation process. Experiments on Bazhenov rocks with a different mineral composition (silica concentration from 15 to 90 wt.%, clays – 5-50 wt.%, carbonates – 0-30 wt.%, kerogen – 1-25 wt.%) and thermal maturity (from immature to late oil window kerogen) were performed in a retort under reservoir conditions. Rock samples of 50 g weight were placed in retort, covered with water and heated to the different temperature varied from 250 to 400°C with the durability of the experiments from several hours to one week. After the experiments, the retort was cooled to room temperature; generated hydrocarbons were extracted with hexane, then separated from the solvent and weighted. The molecular composition of this synthesized oil was then investigated via GC-MS chromatography Characteristics of rock samples after the heating was measured via the Rock-Eval method. It was found, that the amount of synthesized oil and its composition depending on the experimental conditions and composition of rocks. The highest amount of oil was produced at a temperature of 350°C after 12 hours of heating and was up to 12 wt.% of initial organic matter content in the rocks. At the higher temperatures and within longer heating time secondary cracking of generated hydrocarbons occurs, the mass of produced oil is lowering, and the composition contains more hydrocarbons that need to be recovered by catalytical processes. If the temperature is lower than 300°C, the amount of produced oil is too low for the process to be economically effective. It was also found that silica and clay minerals work as catalysts. Selection of heating conditions allows producing synthesized oil with specified composition. Kerogen investigations after heating have shown that thermal maturity increases, but the yield is only up to 35% of the maximum amount of synthetic oil. This yield is the result of gaseous hydrocarbons formation due to secondary cracking and aromatization and coaling of kerogen. Future investigations will allow the increase in the yield of synthetic oil. The results are in a good agreement with theoretical data on kerogen maturation during oil production. Evaluated trends could be tooled up for in-situ oil generation by shale rocks thermal action.Keywords: Bazhenov formation, fossil fuels, hydropyrolysis, synthetic oil
Procedia PDF Downloads 114114 Employment of Persons with Disabilities in Georgia: Challenges and Perspectives
Authors: Tamar Makharadze, Anastasia Kitiashvili, Irine Zhvania, Tamar Abashidze
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After ratification of UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UN CRPD) by the Parliament of Georgia in 2013, ensuring equal access to education and employment for people with disabilities has become one of the priorities of the government. The current research has analyzed the attitudes of people with disabilities, employers and society towards various challenges that employment of persons with disabilities faces in Georgia. The study has been carried out in the capital city and three towns in West and East Georgia. Both quantitative and qualitative research methods have been used. Employers’ attitudes have been studied by analyzing research data from six focus groups and 12 in-depth interviews. Views of persons with disabilities have been analyzed relied on data from eight focus groups and 14 in-depth interviews. The quantitative study covered 490 surveyed respondents from four cities in Georgia. The research was carried out with the employees of companies selected based on the Simple Random Sample; in each company, based on the size of the company 7–10 employees were surveyed. A survey was conducted using a specially developed structured questionnaire. Data analysis was carried out using SPSS (21.0). The research was carried out during June-August 2015. The research data shows that both qualitative and quantitative research participants view employment of persons with disabilities positively; however persons with severe intellectual disabilities and mental problems are viewed as less workable and desired at workplaces. The respondents support the idea of employment of persons with disabilities at an open labour market; at the same time idea of a development of sheltered workshops is also supported. The vast majority of research participants believe that employers should be rather encouraged to hire persons with disabilities than force them to do so. For employers it is important to have the state assistance in adjusting working place to the needs of employee with disabilities. Some tax benefits for employers having employees with disabilities also are seen as encouraging employment of persons with disabilities. Both employers and persons with disabilities believe that development of job coaching will help persons with disabilities to find and maintain a job at the open market. Majority of survey respondents think that the main reasons discouraging employment of persons with disabilities in Georgia are: poor socioeconomic background and high level of unemployment in the country, absence of related state programs and existed stigma towards persons with disabilities within the society. To conclude it can be said that both employers and persons with disabilities expect initiative from the government – development of the programs and services focusing on employment of persons with disabilities that will be rather encouraging and supporting than punishing and forcing. Relied on survey data it can be said that people have positive attitudes to see persons with disabilities at workplaces, educational institutions and public places. This creates a good background for extensive and consistent work towards social inclusion of persons with disabilities in Georgia.Keywords: supported employment, job coaching, employment of persons with disabilities in Georgia, social inclusion
Procedia PDF Downloads 354113 The Role of Interest Groups in Foreign Policy: Assessing the Influence of the 'Pro-Jakarta Lobby' in Australia and Indonesia's Bilateral Relations
Authors: Bec Strating
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This paper examines the ways that domestic politics and pressure–generated through lobbying, public diplomacy campaigns and other tools of soft power-contributes to the formation of short-term and long-term national interests, priorities and strategies of states in their international relations. It primarily addresses the conceptual problems regarding the kinds of influence that lobby groups wield in foreign policy and how this influence might be assessed. Scholarly attention has been paid to influential foreign policy lobbies and interest groups, particularly in the areas of US foreign policy. Less attention has been paid to how lobby groups might influence the foreign policy of a middle power such as Australia. This paper examines some of the methodological complexities in developing and conducting a research project that can measure the nature and influence of lobbies on foreign affairs priorities and activities. This paper will use Australian foreign policy in the context of its historical bilateral relationship with Indonesia as a case study for considering the broader issues of domestic influences on foreign policy. Specifically, this paper will use the so-called ‘pro-Jakarta lobby’ as an example of an interest group. The term ‘pro-Jakarta lobby’ is used in media commentary and scholarship to describe an amorphous collection of individuals who have sought to influence Australian foreign policy in favour of Indonesia. The term was originally applied to a group of Indonesian experts at the Australian National University in the 1980s but expanded to include journalists, think tanks and key diplomats. The concept of the ‘pro-Jakarta lobby’ was developed largely through criticisms of Australia’s support for Indonesia’s sovereignty of East Timor and West Papua. Pro-Independence supporters were integral for creating the ‘lobby’ in their rhetoric and criticisms about the influence on Australian foreign policy. In these critical narratives, the ‘pro-Jakarta lobby’ supported a realist approach to relations with Indonesia during the years of President Suharto’s regime, which saw appeasement of Indonesia as paramount to values of democracy and human rights. The lobby was viewed as integral in embedding a form of ‘foreign policy exceptionalism’ towards Indonesia in Australian policy-making circles. However, little critical and scholarly attention has been paid to nature, aims, strategies and activities of the ‘pro-Jakarta lobby.' This paper engages with methodological issues of foreign policy analysis: what was the ‘pro-Jakarta lobby’? Why was it considered more successful than other activist groups in shaping policy? And how can its influence on Australia’s approach to Indonesia be tested in relation to other contingent factors shaping policy? In addressing these questions, this case study will assist in addressing a broader scholarly concern about the capacities of collectives or individuals in shaping and directing the foreign policies of states.Keywords: foreign policy, interests groups, Australia, Indonesia
Procedia PDF Downloads 343112 Invisible Feminists: An Autonomist Marxist Perspective of Digital Labour and Resistance Within the Online Sex Industry
Authors: Josie West
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This paper focuses on the conflicts and utility of Marxist Feminist frames for sex work research, drawing on findings uncovered through in-depth interviews with online sex workers, alongside critical discourse analysis of media and political commentary. It brings the critical perspective of women into digital workerism and gig economy dialogue who, despite their significant presence within online work, have been overlooked. The autonomist Marxist concept of class composition is adopted to unpack the social, technical and political composition of this often-invisible segment of the service sector. Autonomism makes visible the perspective of workers engaged in processes of mobilization and demobilizaiton. This allows researchers to find everyday forms of resistance which occur within and outside trade unions. On the other hand, Marxist feminist arguments about invisibility politics can generate unhelpful allegories about sex work as domestic labour within the reproductive sphere. Nick Srnicek’s development of Marx’s notion of infrastructure rents helps theorize experiences of unpaid labour within online sex work. Moreover, debates about anti-work politics can cause conflict among sex workers fighting for the labour movement and those rejecting the capitalist work ethic. This illuminates’ tensions caused by white privilege and differing experiences of sex work. The monopolistic and competitive nature of sex work platforms within platform capitalism, and the vulnerable position of marginalised workers within stigmatized/criminalised markets, complicates anti-work politics further. This paper is situated within the feminist sex wars and the intensely divisive question of whether sex workers are victims of the patriarchy or symbols of feminist resistance. Camgirls are shown to engage in radical tactics of resistance against their technical composition on popular sex work platforms. They also engage in creative acts of resistance through performance art, in an attempt to draw attention to stigma and anti-criminalization politics. This sector offers a fascinating window onto grassroots class-action, alongside education about ‘whorephobia.’ A case study of resistance against Only Fans, and a small workers co-operative which emerged during the pandemic, showcases how workers engage in socialist and political acts without the aid of unions. Workers are victims of neoliberalism and simultaneous adopters of neoliberal strategies of survival. The complex dynamics within unions are explored, including tensions with grass-roots resistance, financial pressures and intersecting complications of class, gender and race.Keywords: autonomist marxism, digital labor, feminism, neoliberalism, sex work, platform capitalism
Procedia PDF Downloads 90111 Grouping Pattern, Habitat Assessment and Overlap Analysis of Five Ungulates Species in Different Altitudinal Gradients of Western Himalaya, Uttarakhand, India
Authors: Kaleem Ahmed, Jamal A. Khan
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Grouping patterns, habitat use, and overlap studies were conducted on five sympatric ungulate species sambar (Cervus unicolor), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjac), goral (Nemorhaedus goral), and serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) in the Dabka watershed area within Indian West Himalayan range. Data on age, sex composition, group size, and various ecological and topographical factors governing the presence/absence of species within the study area were collected using a 250 km of a trail walk, 95 permanent circular plots of 10 m radius, and 3 vantage points with 58 scannings. The highest mean group size was recorded for chital (6.35 ± 0.50), followed by sambar (1.35 ± 0.10), goral (1.25 ±0.63), muntjac (1.12 ± 0.05), and serow (1.00 ± 0.00). Grouping pattern significantly varied among sympatric species (F = 85.10, df. = 6, P = 0.000). The highest mean pellet group density (/ha ± SE) was recorded for sambar (41.56 ± 3.51), followed by goral (23.31 ± 3.45), chital (19.21 ± 3.51), muntjac (7.43 ± 1.21), and serow (1.02 ± 0.10). Two-way variance analysis showed a significant difference in the density of the pellet group of all ungulate species across different study area habitats (F = 6.38, df = 4, P = 0.027). The availability-utilization (AU) analysis reveals that goral was mostly sighted in steep slopes, preferred > 2100 m altitudinal range with low shrub understory, avoided dense forest, and relatively more southern aspects were used. Chital had used a wide range of tree and shrub coverings with a preference towards moderate cover range (26-50%), preferred areas with low slope category ( < 25), avoided areas of high altitude > 900 m. Sambar avoided less tree cover (0-25), preferred slope category (26-500), altitudes between 1600-2100 m, and preferred dense forest with northern aspects. Muntjac used all elevation ranges in the study area with a preference towards the dense forest and northern aspects. Serow preferred high tree cover > 75%, avoided low shrub cover (0-25%), preferred high shrub cover 51-75%, utilized higher elevation > 2100 m, avoided low elevation range and northern aspects. All species occupied similar habitat types, forest or scrub, except for the goral, which preferred open spaces. Between muntjac and sambar, the highest overlap was found (65%), and there was no overlap between chital and serow, chital and goral. Aspect, slope, altitude, and vegetation characteristics were found to be important factors for the overlap of ungulate sympatric species. One major reason for their ecological separation at the fine-scale level is the differential use of altitude by ungulates in the present study. This is confirmed by the avoidance by chital of altitudes > 900 m and serow of < 2100 m.Keywords: altitude, grouping pattern, Himalayas, overlap, ungulates
Procedia PDF Downloads 141110 The Relationship Between Military Expenditure and International Trade: A Selection of African Countries
Authors: Andre C Jordaan
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The end of the Cold War and rivalry between super powers has changed the nature of military build-up in many countries. A call from international institutions like the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to reduce the levels of military expenditure was the order of the day. However, this bid to cut military expenditure has not been forthright. Recently, active armed conflicts occurred in at least 46 states in 2021 with 8 in the Americas, 9 in Asia and Oceania, 3 in Europe, 8 in the Middle East and North Africa and 18 in sub-Saharan Africa. Global military expenditure in 2022 was estimated to be US$2,2 trillion, representing 2.2 per cent of global gross domestic product. Particularly sharp rises in military spending have followed in African countries and the Middle East. Global military expenditure currently follows two divergent trends, either a declining trend in the West caused mainly by austerity, efforts to control budget deficits and the wrapping up of prolonged wars. However, some parts of the world shows an increasing trend on the back of security concerns, geopolitical ambitions and some internal political factors. Conflict related fatalities in sub-Saharan Africa alone increased by 19 per cent between 2020 and 2021. The interaction between military expenditure (read conflict) and international trade is generally the cause of much debate. Some argue that countries’ fear of losing trade opportunities causes political decision makers to refrain from engaging in conflict when important trading partners are involved. However, three main arguments are always present when discussing the relationship between military expenditure or conflicts and international trade: Free trade could promote peaceful cooperation, it could trigger tension between trading blocs and partners, and trade could have no effect because conflict is based on issues that are more important. Military expenditure remains an important element of the overall government expenditure in many African countries. On the other hand, numerous researchers perceive increased international trade to be one of the main factors promoting economic growth in these countries. The purpose of this paper is therefore to determine what effect, if any, exist between the level of military expenditure and international trade within a selection of 19 African countries. Applying an augmented gravity model to explore the relationship between military expenditure and international trade, evidence is found to confirm the existence of an inverse relationship between these two variables. It seems that the results are in line with the Liberal school of thought where trade is seen as an instrument of conflict prevention. Trade is therefore perceived as a symptom of peace and not a cause thereof. In general, conflict or rumors of conflict tend to reduce trade. If conflict did not impede trade, economic agents would be indifferent to risk. Many claim that trade brings peace, however, it seems that it is rather peace that brings trade. From the results, it appears that trade reduces the risk of conflict and that conflict reduces trade.Keywords: African countries, conflict, international trade, military expenditure
Procedia PDF Downloads 65109 Epidemiological Data of Schistosoma haematobium Bilharzia in Rural and Urban Localities in the Republic of Congo
Authors: Jean Akiana, Digne Merveille Nganga Bouanga, Nardiouf Sjelin Nsana, Wilfrid Sapromet Ngoubili, Chyvanelle Ndous Akiridzo, Vishnou Reize Ampiri, Henri-Joseph Parra, Florence Fenollar, Didier Raoult, Oleg Mediannikov, Cheikh Sadhibou Sokhna
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Schistosoma haematobium schistosomiasis is an endemic disease in which the level of human exposure, incidence, and fatality attributed to it remains, unfortunately, high worldwide. The erection of hydroelectric infrastructures constitute a major factor in the emergence of this disease. In the context of the Republic of the Congo, which considers industrialization and modernization as two essential pillars of development, building the hydroelectric dams of Liouesso (19 Mw) and the feasibility studies of the dams of Chollet (600MW) in the Sangha, of Sounda (1000MW) in Kouilou and Kouembali (150MW) on Lefini is necessary to increase the country's energy capacities. Likewise, the urbanization of former endemic localities should take into account the maintenance of contamination points. However, health impact studies on schistosomiasis epidemiology in general and urinary bilharzia, in particular, have never been carried out in these areas, neither before nor after the erection of those dams. Participants benefited from an investigative questionnaire, urinalysis both by dipstick and urine filtrate examined under a microscope. Assessment of the genetic diversity of schistosoma species populations was considered as well as PCR analysis to confirm the test strip and microscopy tests. 405 participants were registered in five localities. The sampling was made up of a balanced population in terms of male/female ratio, which is around 1. The prevalence rate was 45% (55/123) in Nkayi, 10.40% (11/106) in Loudima, 1 case in Mbomo (West Cuvette), which would probably be imported, zero in Liouesso and Kabo. The highest oviuria (number of eggs per volume of urine) is 150 S. haematobium eggs/10ml in Nkayi, apart from the case of imported Mbomo, imported from Gabon, which has 160 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. The lowest oviuria was 2 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program.Keywords: Bilharzia, Schistosoma haematobium, oviuria, urbanization, Congo
Procedia PDF Downloads 150108 Integration of Gravity and Seismic Methods in the Geometric Characterization of a Dune Reservoir: Case of the Zouaraa Basin, NW Tunisia
Authors: Marwa Djebbi, Hakim Gabtni
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Gravity is a continuously advancing method that has become a mature technology for geological studies. Increasingly, it has been used to complement and constrain traditional seismic data and even used as the only tool to get information of the sub-surface. In fact, in some regions the seismic data, if available, are of poor quality and hard to be interpreted. Such is the case for the current study area. The Nefza zone is part of the Tellian fold and thrust belt domain in the north west of Tunisia. It is essentially made of a pile of allochthonous units resulting from a major Neogene tectonic event. Its tectonic and stratigraphic developments have always been subject of controversies. Considering the geological and hydrogeological importance of this area, a detailed interdisciplinary study has been conducted integrating geology, seismic and gravity techniques. The interpretation of Gravity data allowed the delimitation of the dune reservoir and the identification of the regional lineaments contouring the area. It revealed the presence of three gravity lows that correspond to the dune of Zouara and Ouchtata separated along with a positive gravity axis espousing the Ain Allega_Aroub Er Roumane axe. The Bouguer gravity map illustrated the compartmentalization of the Zouara dune into two depressions separated by a NW-SE anomaly trend. This constitution was confirmed by the vertical derivative map which showed the individualization of two depressions with slightly different anomaly values. The horizontal gravity gradient magnitude was performed in order to determine the different geological features present in the studied area. The latest indicated the presence of NE-SW parallel folds according to the major Atlasic direction. Also, NW-SE and EW trends were identified. The maxima tracing confirmed this direction by the presence of NE-SW faults, mainly the Ghardimaou_Cap Serrat accident. The quality of the available seismic sections and the absence of borehole data in the region, except few hydraulic wells that been drilled and showing the heterogeneity of the substratum of the dune, required the process of gravity modeling of this challenging area that necessitates to be modeled for the geometrical characterization of the dune reservoir and determine the different stratigraphic series underneath these deposits. For more detailed and accurate results, the scale of study will be reduced in coming research. A more concise method will be elaborated; the 4D microgravity survey. This approach is considered as an expansion of gravity method and its fourth dimension is time. It will allow a continuous and repeated monitoring of fluid movement in the subsurface according to the micro gal (μgall) scale. The gravity effect is a result of a monthly variation of the dynamic groundwater level which correlates with rainfall during different periods.Keywords: 3D gravity modeling, dune reservoir, heterogeneous substratum, seismic interpretation
Procedia PDF Downloads 299107 Illegal Anthropogenic Activity Drives Large Mammal Population Declines in an African Protected Area
Authors: Oluseun A. Akinsorotan, Louise K. Gentle, Md. Mofakkarul Islam, Richard W. Yarnell
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High levels of anthropogenic activity such as habitat destruction, poaching and encroachment into natural habitat have resulted in significant global wildlife declines. In order to protect wildlife, many protected areas such as national parks have been created. However, it is argued that many protected areas are only protected in name and are often exposed to continued, and often illegal, anthropogenic pressure. In West African protected areas, declines of large mammals have been documented between 1962 and 2008. This study aimed to produce occupancy estimates of the remaining large mammal fauna in the third largest National Park in Nigeria, Old Oyo, and to compare the estimates with historic estimates while also attempting to quantify levels of illegal anthropogenic activity using a multi-disciplinary approach. Large mammal populations and levels of illegal anthropogenic activity were assessed using empirical field data (camera trapping and transect surveys) in combination with data from questionnaires completed by local villagers and park rangers. Four of the historically recorded species in the park, lion (Panthera leo), hunting dog (Lycaon pictus), elephant (Loxodonta africana) and buffalo (Syncerus caffer) were not detected during field studies nor were they reported by respondents. In addition, occupancy estimates of hunters and illegal grazers were higher than the majority of large mammal species inside the park. This finding was reinforced by responses from the villagers and rangers who’s perception was that large mammal densities in the park were declining, and that a large proportion of the local people were entering the park to hunt wild animals and graze their domestic livestock. Our findings also suggest that widespread poverty and a lack of alternative livelihood opportunities, culture of consuming bushmeat, lack of education and awareness of the value of protected areas, and weak law enforcement are some of the reasons for the illegal activity. Law enforcement authorities were often constrained by insufficient on-site personnel and a lack of modern equipment and infrastructure to deter illegal activities. We conclude that there is a need to address the issue of illegal hunting and livestock grazing, via provision of alternative livelihoods, in combination with community outreach programmes that aim to improve conservation education and awareness and develop the capacity of the conservation authorities in order to achieve conservation goals. Our findings have implications for the conservation management of all protected areas that are available for exploitation by local communities.Keywords: camera trapping, conservation, extirpation, illegal grazing, large mammals, national park, occupancy estimates, poaching
Procedia PDF Downloads 295106 A Drop of Water for the Thirsty Ground: Implementing Drip-Irrigation System as an Alternative to the Existing System to Promote Sustainable Livelihoods in the Archipelagic Dryland East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
Authors: F. L. Benu, I. W. Mudita, R. L. Natonis
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East Nusa Tenggara, together with part of East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku, has been included as part of global drylands defined according to the ratio of annual precipitation (P) and annual potential evaporation (PET) and major vegetation types of grassland and savannah ecosystems. These tropical drylands are unique because, whereas drylands in other countries are mostly continental, here they are archipelagic. These archipelagic drylands are also unique in terms of being included because of more on their major vegetation types than of their P/PET ratio. Slash-and-burn cultivation and free roaming animal husbandry are two major livelihoods being widely practiced, along with alternative seasonal livelihood such as traditional fishing. Such livelihoods are vulnerable in various respects, especially because of drought, which becomes more unpredictable in the face of climate changes. To cope with such vulnerability, semi-intensive farming using drip irrigation is implemented as an appropriate technology with the goal of promoting a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods. The implementation was started in 2016 with a pilot system at the university field laboratory in Kupang in which various designs of installation were tested. The modified system consisting of an uplifted water reservoir and solar-powered pump was tested in Papela, the District of Rote-Ndao, in 2017 to convince fishermen who had been involved in illegal fishing in Australia-Indonesia transboundary waters, to adopt small-scale farming as a more sustainable alternative to their existing livelihoods. The system was again tested in a larger coverage in Oesena, the District of Kupang, in 2018 to convince slash-and-burn cultivators to adopt an environmentally friendlier cultivation system. From the implementation of the modified system in both sites, the participating fishermen in Papela were able to manage the system under tight water supply to grow chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon and the slash-and-burn cultivators in Oesena to grow chili pepper in a more efficient water use than water use in a conventional irrigation system. The gross margin obtained from growing chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon in Papela and from growing chili pepper in Oesena showed that small-scale farming using drip irrigation system was a promising alternative to local people in generating cash income to support their livelihoods. However, before promoting this appropriate technology as a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods elsewhere in the region, better understanding on social-related contexts of the implementation is needed.Keywords: archipelagic drylands, drip irrigation system, East Nusa Tenggara, sustainable livelihoods
Procedia PDF Downloads 115105 The Role of Macroeconomic Condition and Volatility in Credit Risk: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swap Index Spread on Structural Models in U.S. Market during Post-Crisis Period
Authors: Xu Wang
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This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty
Procedia PDF Downloads 167104 The Active Social Live of #Lovewins: Understanding the Discourse of Homosexual Love and Rights in Thailand
Authors: Tinnaphop Sinsomboonthong
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The hashtag, #LoveWins, has been widely used for celebrating the victory of the LGBTQ movement since June 2015 when the US Supreme Court enacted the rights of same-sex marriage. Nowadays, the hashtag is generally used among active social media users in many countries, including Thailand. Amidst the political conflict between advocates of the junta-backed legislation related to same-sex marriage laws, known as ‘Thailand’s Civil Partnership Draft Bills,’ and its detractors, the hashtag becomes crucial for Thailand’s 2019 national election season and shortly afterward as it was one of the most crucial parts of a political campaign to rebrand many political parties’ image, create an LGBT-friendly atmosphere and neutralize the bi-polarized politics of the law. The use of the hashtag is, therefore, not just an online entertainment but a politico-discursive tool, used by many actors for many purposes. Behind the confrontation between supporters and opposers of the law, the hashtag is used by both sides to highlight the Western-centric normativity of homosexual love, closely associated with Eurocentric modernity and heteronormativity. As an online ethnographical study, this paper aims to analyze how #LoveWins is used among Thai social media users in late 2018 to mid-2019 and how it is signified by Thai social media users during the Drafted-Bills period and the 2019 national election. A number of preliminary surveys of data on Twitter were conducted in December 2018 and, more intensely, in January 2019. Later, the data survey was officially conducted twice during February and April 2019, while the data collection was done during May-June 2019. Only public posts on Twitter that include the hashtag, #LoveWins, or any hashtags quoting ‘love’ and ‘wins’ are the main targets of this research. As a result of this, the use of the hashtag can be categorized into three levels, including banal decoration, homosexual love celebration, and colonial discourse on homosexual love. Particularly in the third type of the use of the hashtag, discourse analysis is applied to reveal that this hashtag is closely associated with the discourse of development and modernity as most of the descriptive posts demonstrate aspirations to become more ‘developed and modernized’ like many Western countries and Taiwan, the LGBT capital in Asia. Thus, calls for the ‘right to homosexual love’ and the ‘right to same-sex marriage’ in Thailand are shaped and formulated within the discursive linkage between modernity, development, and love. Also, the use of #LoveWins can be considered as a de-queering process of love as only particular types of gender identity, sexual orientation, and relationships that reflect Eurocentric modernity and heteronormativity are acceptable and advocated. Due to this, more inclusive queer loves should be supported rather than a mere essentialist-traditionalist homosexual love. Homonormativity must be deconstructed, and love must no longer be reserved for only one particular type of relationship that is standardized from/by the West. It must become more inclusive.Keywords: #LoveWins, homosexual love, LGBT rights, same-sex marriage
Procedia PDF Downloads 140103 Revolution through Rhythm: Anti Caste and Subaltern Dimensions in Indian Rap
Authors: Nithin Raj Adithyan
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Rap music is a popular genre that features strong beats and rhythmic words. It was created by American disc jockeys and urban Black performers in the late 1970s. Additionally, it carries on West African oral traditions that were introduced to the Americas by Africans who were held as slaves and have impacted the narrative and rhythmic components of rap. Initially introduced in India in the late 1990s as mere entertainment, rap lacked the politicized undertones that it developed in the United States. However, recent years have witnessed a transformation, with Indian rap evolving into a vital tool for marginalized communities—particularly Dalits, Muslims, and tribal groups—to voice grievances against historical injustices, systemic discrimination, and caste-based oppression. This paper examines Indian rap's evolution into a potent medium for subaltern resistance, drawing from its origins in the black ghettos of America, where rap emerged as social commentary and an anti-racial political voice. Historically, music has served as an essential medium for subaltern groups in India to assert their identities and reclaim agency. Indian rap, in its current form, amplifies this function by offering a compelling platform to address issues of caste oppression, socio-economic marginalization, and symbolic exclusion. This paper examines how contemporary Indian rappers, often from Dalit and lower-caste backgrounds, leverage their art to confront systemic injustices and amplify voices that have historically been silenced. By analyzing key artists and their lyrics, this paper highlights the ways in which rap critiques the pervasive caste system, challenges social hierarchies, and fosters a sense of identity and solidarity among subaltern groups. This study uses Gayatri Spivak’s concept of “strategic essentialism” to explore how Indian rap fosters shared subaltern identity, uniting voices across regional and cultural divides. By situating Indian rap within the global hip-hop movement, the paper highlights how it contributes a unique perspective to global narratives of resilience and resistance, adapting international influences to articulate local struggles. Ultimately, this research highlights Indian rap’s role as a catalyst for change, examining its critique of caste violence, economic marginalization, and social exclusion and demonstrating how it contributes to the anti-caste movement. Through a close reading of this subaltern dimension of rap, the paper illuminates how Indian rap fosters identity, solidarity, and resistance, affirming the genre’s potential as a transformative force within the global legacy of hip-hop as an expression of subaltern agency and social dissent.Keywords: caste oppression, hip-hop/rap, resistance, subaltern
Procedia PDF Downloads 16102 Current Deflecting Wall: A Promising Structure for Minimising Siltation in Semi-Enclosed Docks
Authors: A. A. Purohit, A. Basu, K. A. Chavan, M. D. Kudale
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Many estuarine harbours in the world are facing the problem of siltation in docks, channel entrances, etc. The harbours in India are not an exception and require maintenance dredging to achieve navigable depths for keeping them operable. Hence, dredging is inevitable and is a costly affair. The heavy siltation in docks in well mixed tide dominated estuaries is mainly due to settlement of cohesive sediments in suspension. As such there is a need to have a permanent solution for minimising the siltation in such docks to alter the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation by constructing structures outside the dock. One of such docks on the west coast of India, wherein siltation of about 2.5-3 m/annum prevails, was considered to understand the hydrodynamic flow field responsible for siltation. The dock is situated in such a region where macro type of semi-diurnal tide (range of about 5m) prevails. In order to change the flow field responsible for siltation inside the dock, suitability of Current Deflecting Wall (CDW) outside the dock was studied, which will minimise the sediment exchange rate and siltation in the dock. The well calibrated physical tidal model was used to understand the flow field during various phases of tide for the existing dock in Mumbai harbour. At the harbour entrance where the tidal flux exchanges in/out of the dock, measurements on water level and current were made to estimate the sediment transport capacity. The distorted scaled model (1:400 (H) & 1:80 (V)) of Mumbai area was used to study the tidal flow phenomenon, wherein tides are generated by automatic tide generator. Hydraulic model studies carried out under the existing condition (without CDW) reveal that, during initial hours of flood tide, flow hugs the docks breakwater and part of flow which enters the dock forms number of eddies of varying sizes inside the basin, while remaining part of flow bypasses the entrance of dock. During ebb, flow direction reverses, and part of the flow re-enters the dock from outside and creates eddies at its entrance. These eddies do not allow water/sediment-mass to come out and result in settlement of sediments in dock both due to eddies and more retention of sediment. At latter hours, current strength outside the dock entrance reduces and allows the water-mass of dock to come out. In order to improve flow field inside the dockyard, two CDWs of length 300 m and 40 m were proposed outside the dock breakwater and inline to Pier-wall at dock entrance. Model studies reveal that, during flood, major flow gets deflected away from the entrance and no eddies are formed inside the dock, while during ebb flow does not re-enter the dock, and sediment flux immediately starts emptying it during initial hours of ebb. This reduces not only the entry of sediment in dock by about 40% but also the deposition by about 42% due to less retention. Thus, CDW is a promising solution to significantly reduce siltation in dock.Keywords: current deflecting wall, eddies, hydraulic model, macro tide, siltation
Procedia PDF Downloads 298101 Ganga Rejuvenation through Forestation and Conservation Measures in Riverscape
Authors: Ombir Singh
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In spite of the religious and cultural pre-dominance of the river Ganga in the Indian ethos, fragmentation and degradation of the river continued down the ages. Recognizing the national concern on environmental degradation of the river and its basin, Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR,RD&GR), Government of India has initiated a number of pilot schemes for the rejuvenation of river Ganga under the ‘Namami Gange’ Programme. Considering the diversity, complexity, and intricacies of forest ecosystems and pivotal multiple functions performed by them and their inter-connectedness with highly dynamic river ecosystems, forestry interventions all along the river Ganga from its origin at Gaumukh, Uttarakhand to its mouth at Ganga Sagar, West Bengal has been planned by the ministry. For that Forest Research Institute (FRI) in collaboration with National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) has prepared a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on Forestry Interventions for Ganga. The Institute has adopted an extensive consultative process at the national and state levels involving various stakeholders relevant in the context of river Ganga and employed a science-based methodology including use of remote sensing and GIS technologies for geo-spatial analysis, modeling and prioritization of sites for proposed forestation and conservation interventions. Four sets of field data formats were designed to obtain the field based information for forestry interventions, mainly plantations and conservation measures along the river course. In response, five stakeholder State Forest Departments had submitted more than 8,000 data sheets to the Institute. In order to analyze a voluminous field data received from five participating states, the Institute also developed a software to collate, analyze and generation of reports on proposed sites in Ganga basin. FRI has developed potential plantation and treatment models for the proposed forestry and other conservation measures in major three types of landscape components visualized in the Ganga riverscape. These are: (i) Natural, (ii) Agriculture, and (iii) Urban Landscapes. Suggested plantation models broadly varied for the Uttarakhand Himalayas and the Ganga Plains in five participating states. Besides extensive plantations in three type of landscapes within the riverscape, various conservation measures such as soil and water conservation, riparian wildlife management, wetland management, bioremediation and bio-filtration and supporting activities such as policy and law intervention, concurrent research, monitoring and evaluation, and mass awareness campaigns have been envisioned in the DPR. The DPR also incorporates the details of the implementation mechanism, budget provisioned for different components of the project besides allocation of budget state-wise to five implementing agencies, national partner organizations and the Nodal Ministry.Keywords: conservation, Ganga, river, water, forestry interventions
Procedia PDF Downloads 149100 Abuse against Elderly Widows in India and Selected States: An Exploration
Authors: Rasmita Mishra, Chander Shekher
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Background: Population ageing is an inevitable outcome of demographic transition. Due to increased life expectancy, the old age population in India and worldwide has increased, and it will continue to grow more alarmingly in the near future. There are redundant austerity that has been bestowed upon the widows, thus, the life of widows is never been easy in India. The loss of spouse along with other disadvantaged socioeconomic intermediaries like illiteracy and poverty often make the life of widows more difficult to live. Methodology: Ethical statement: The study used secondary data available in the public domain for its wider use in social research. Thus, there was no requirement of ethical consent in the present study. Data source: Building a Knowledge Base on Population Aging in India (BKPAI), 2011 dataset is used to fulfill the objectives of this study. It was carried out in seven states – Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal – having a higher percentage of the population in the age group 60 years and above compared to the national average. Statistical analysis: Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to understand the level of elderly widows and incidence of abuse against them in India and selected states. Bivariate and Trivariate analysis were carried out to check the pattern of abuse by selected covariates. Chi-Square test is used to verify the significance of the association. Further, Discriminant Analysis (DA) is carried out to understand which factor can separate out group of neglect and non-neglect elderly. Result: With the addition of 27 million from 2001 to 2011, the total elderly population in India is more than 100 million. Elderly females aged 60+ were more widows than their counterpart elderly males. This pattern was observed across selected states and at national level. At national level, more than one tenth (12 percent) of elderly experienced abuse in their lifetime. Incidence of abuse against elderly widows within family was considerably higher than the outside the family. This pattern was observed across the selected place and abuse in the study. In discriminant analysis, the significant difference between neglected and non-neglected elderly on each of the independent variables was examined using group mean and ANOVA. Discussion: The study is the first of its kind to assess the incidence of abuse against elderly widows using large-scale survey data. Another novelty of this study is that it has assessed for those states in India whereby the proportion of elderly is higher than the national average. Place and perpetrators involved in the abuse against elderly widows certainly envisaged the safeness in the present living arrangement of elderly widows. Conclusion: Due to the increasing life expectancy it is expected that the number of elderly will increase much faster than before. As biologically women live longer than men, there will be more women elderly than men. With respect to the living arrangement, after the demise of the spouse, elderly widows are more likely to live with their children who emerged as the main perpetrator of abuse.Keywords: elderly abuse, emotional abuse physical abuse, material abuse, psychological abuse, quality of life
Procedia PDF Downloads 42799 Comparative Assessment of Heavy Metals Influence on Growth of Silver Catfish (Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus) and Tilapia Fish (Oreochromis niloticus) Collected from Brackish and Freshwater, South-West, Nigeria
Authors: Atilola O. Abidemi-Iromini, Oluayo A. Bello-Olusoji, Immanuel A. Adebayo
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Ecological studies were carried out in Asejire Reservoir (AR) and Lagos Lagoon (LL), Southwest Nigeria from January 2012 to December 2013 to determine the health status of Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus (CN) and Oreochromis niloticus (ON). The fish species samples were collected every month, these were separated into sexes, and growth pattern {length, (cm); weight (g), Isometric index, condition factor} were measured. Heavy metals (lead (Pb), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), copper (Cu), and chromium (Cr) in ppm concentrations were also determined while bacteria occurrence(s), (load and prevalence) on fish skins, gills and intestine in the two ecological zones were determined. The fish ratio collected is in range with normal aquatic (1: 1+) male: female ratio. Growth assessment determined revealed no significant difference in length and weight in O. niloticus between locations, but a significant difference in weight occurred in C. nigrodigitatus between locations, with a higher weight (196.06 ±0.16 g) from Lagos Lagoon. Highest condition factor (5.25) was recorded in Asejire Reservoir O. niloticus, (ARON); and lowest condition factor (1.64) was observed in Asejire Reservoir C. nigrodigitatus (ARCN); as this indicated a negative allometric value which is normal in Bagridae species because it increases more in Length to weight gain than for the Cichlidae growth status. Normal growth rate (K > 1) occurred between sexes, with the male species having higher K - factors than female species within locations, between locations, between species, and within species, except for female C. nigrodigitatus having higher condition factor (K = 1.75) than male C. nigrodigitatus (K = 1.54) in Asejire Reservoir. The highest isometric value (3.05) was recorded in Asejire Reservoir O. niloticus and lowest in Lagos Lagoon C. nigrodigitatus. Male O. niloticus from Asejire Reservoir had highest isometric value, and O. niloticus species had higher condition factor which ranged between isometric (b ≤ 3) and positive allometric (b > 3), hence, denoted robustness of fish to grow more in weight than in length; while C. nigrodigitatus fish has negative allometric (b < 3) indicating fish add more length than in weight on growth. The status of condition factors and isometric values obtained is species-specific, and environmental influence, food availability or reproduction factor may as well be contributing factors. The concentrations of heavy metals in fish flesh revealed that Zn (6.52 ±0.82) had the highest, while Cr (0.01±0.00) was ranked lowest; for O. niloticus in Asejire Reservoir. In Lagos Lagoon, heavy metals concentration level revealed that O. niloticus flesh had highest in Zn (4.71±0.25) and lowest in Pb (0.01±0.00). Lagos Lagoon C. nigrodigitatus heavy metal concentration level revealed Zn (9.56±0.96) had highest, while Cr (0.06±0.01) had lowest; and Asejire Reservoir C. nigrodigitatus heavy metal level revealed that Zn (8.26 ±0.74) had highest, and Cr (0.08±0.00) had lowest. In all, Zinc (Zn) was top-ranked in level among species.Keywords: Oreochromis niloticus, growth status, Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus, environments, heavy metals
Procedia PDF Downloads 11698 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects
Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka
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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff
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