Search results for: thinning effect

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

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This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

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Authors: Temidayo James Aransiola, Vania Ceccato, Marcelo Justus

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This paper investigates the effect of absolute deprivation (proxy unemployment) and relative deprivation (proxy income inequality) on homicide levels in Brazil. A database from the Brazilian Information System about Mortality and Census of the year 2000 and 2010 was used to estimate negative binomial models of homicide levels controlling for socioeconomic, demographic and geographic factors. Findings show that unemployment and income inequality affect homicides levels and that the effect of the former is more pronounced compared to the latter. Moreover, the combination of income inequality and unemployment exacerbates the overall effect of deprivation on homicide levels.

Keywords: deprivation, inequality, interaction, unemployment, violence

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Authors: Frank Frimpong Opuni, Michael Mba Allan, Kwame Adu-Gyamfi, Michael Sarkodie Baffoe

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This paper assesses the effect of relationship marketing on service quality and customer satisfaction from the perspective of the moderating role of emotional intelligence in the insurance industry in Ghana. A descriptive quantitative research technique was employed. A random sample of 384 each of customers and service providers in 3 insurance firms in Accra were used as the source of data. According to findings, emotional intelligence makes a strong positive effect on relationship marketing at 5% significance level, r (283) = .817, p = .000. Though relationship marketing makes a strong positive effect on service quality (r = .767, p < .05) and customer satisfaction (r = .647, p < .05), this effect becomes insignificant (p > .05) when the effect of emotional intelligence on relationship marketing is controlled for. It is therefore recommended that insurance firms give priority to equipping their relationship employees with emotional intelligence to maximise service quality and customer satisfaction.

Keywords: relationship marketing, service quality, customer satisfaction, emotional intelligence

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Authors: Rouabah Zahra, Tlidjane Madjid, Belkacem Lilia, Hafid Nadia, Mallem Mouna

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The goal of the current study was to evaluate the gross and histopathological changes caused by the presence of non-biodegradable foreign bodies (plastic bags) in the rumen-reticulum of cattle. To identify this problem, we conducted this study at a slaughterhouse on a total of 212 cattle without any previous selection. After slaughter and draining of the rumen, foreign bodies and macroscopic lesions were investigated, and rumen samples were taken for histopathological examination. Gross examination of the rumen-reticulum with non-biodegradable foreign bodies revealed congestion, hemorrhage, stunting, sagging, atrophy, and thinning of the papillae had been observed. Areas of erosion and ulceration were also observed in the rumen-reticulum of all cattle harboring a large quantity of plastic bags. Ulcerations and nodular formations were also present. The rumen-reticulum wall was thinner than normal and had a light-mottled wall and compressed papillae. The histopathological examination revealed a wide variety of lesions. We observed especially lesions of fragmentary or segmental ruptures, destruction, necrosis, degeneration and focal hyperplasia of the keratinized epithelium. The papillae are shortened, enlarged, atrophied, folded, and compressed. The length of the taste buds was reduced. These observed histopathological changes can be attributed to mechanical irritation induced by plastic bags or released chemicals by these non-biodegradable foreign bodies.

Keywords: cattle, non-biodegradable foreign bodies, lesions, rumen

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Authors: Amira Kaddour

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To curb the problem of liquidity in times of financial crises, two cases arise; the Bailout or Bailin, two opposite choices that elicit the analysis of their effect on moral hazard. This paper attempts to empirically analyze the effect of these two types of events on the behavior of investors. For this end, we use the Emerging Market Bonds Index (EMBI-JP Morgan), and its excess of return, to detect the change in the risk premia through a Markov switching model. The results showed the transition to two types of regime and an effect on moral hazard; Bailout is an incentive of moral hazard, Bailin effectiveness remains subject of credibility.

Keywords: Bailout, Bailin, Moral hazard, financial crisis, Markov switching

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Authors: Siti N. M. Rozali, A. H. J. Paterson, J. P. Hindmarsh

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Spray drying of fruit juices from liquid to powder is desirable as the powders are easier to handle, especially for storage and transportation. In this project, pomace fibres will be used as a drying aid during spray drying, replacing the commonly used maltodextrins. The main attraction of this drying aid is that the pomace fibres are originally derived from the fruit itself. However, the addition of micro-sized fibres to fruit juices is expected to affect the rheology and subsequent atomization behaviour during the spray drying process. This study focuses on the determination and characterization of the rheology of juice-fibre suspensions specifically inside a spray dryer nozzle. Results show that the juice-fibre suspensions exhibit shear thinning behaviour with a significant extensional viscosity. The shear and extensional viscosities depend on several factors which include fibre fraction, shape, size and aspect ratio. A commercial capillary rheometer is used to characterize the shear behaviour while a portable extensional rheometer has been designed and built to study the extensional behaviour. Methods and equipment will be presented along with the rheology results. Rheology or behaviour of the juice-fibre suspensions provides an insight into the limitations that will be faced during atomization, and in the future, this finding will assist in choosing the best nozzle design that can overcome the limitations introduced by the fibre particles thus resulting in successful spray drying of juice-fibre suspensions.

Keywords: extensional rheology, fibre suspensions, portable extensional rheometer, shear rheology

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Authors: Shamshiri Mitra, Abedi Rahim

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This paper investigates corporate investment behavior and its relationship with ownership structure and financial leverage for the listed company of Tehran stock exchange during 2008-2012. The results show that the concentration of ownership has s significant positive effect on corporate investment. The results for the kind of major owners show that institutional ownership had a positive significant effect and state and individual ownership had negative significant effects on the corporate investment but the effect of corporate ownership was not significant. Furthermore the effect of financial leverage was negative and significant.

Keywords: corporate investment behavior, financial leverage, ownership structure corporate investment behavior

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Authors: Byungchae Kim, Jiwoo Nam

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Aging of weapon systems can cause the failure and degeneration of components which results in increase of operating and support costs. However, whether this aging effect is significantly strong and it influences a lot on national defense spending due to the rapid increase in operating and support (O&S) costs is questionable. To figure out this, we conduct a literature review analyzing the aging effect of US weapon systems. We also conduct an empirical research using a maintenance database of Korean weapon systems, Defense Logistics Integrated Information System (DAIIS). We run regression of various types of O&S cost on weapon system age to investigate the statistical significance of aging effect and use generalized linear model to find relations between the failure of different priced components and the age. Our major finding is although aging effect exists, its impacts on weapon system cost seem to be not too large considering several characteristics of O&S cost elements not relying on the age.

Keywords: O&S cost, aging effect, weapon system, GLM

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Authors: Yike Lamu, Jieyu Tang, Jialin Wu, Jianyun Huang

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With the development of economy and science and technology, the urban heat island effect becomes more and more serious. Taking Beijing city as an example, this paper divides the value of each influence index of heat island intensity and establishes a mathematical model – neural network system based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of heat island effect. After data preprocessing, the algorithm of weight of each factor affecting heat island effect is generated, and the data of sex indexes affecting heat island intensity of Shenyang City and Shanghai City, Beijing, and Hangzhou City are input, and the result is automatically output by the neural network system. It is of practical significance to show the intensity of heat island effect by visual method, which is simple, intuitive and can be dynamically monitored.

Keywords: heat island effect, neural network, comprehensive evaluation, visualization

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Authors: Beatriz Delgado

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Although social anxiety is one of the most prevalent disorders in adolescents and causes considerable difficulties and social distress in those with the disorder, to date very few studies have explored the impact of social anxiety on academic adjustment in student populations. The aim of this study was analyze the effect of social anxiety on school functioning in Secondary Education. Specifically, we examined the relationship between social anxiety and self-concept, academic goals, causal attributions, intellectual aptitudes, and learning strategies, personality traits, and academic performance, with the purpose of creating a causal-explanatory model of academic performance. The sample consisted of 2,022 students in the seven to ten grades of Compulsory Secondary Education in Spain (M = 13.18; SD = 1.35; 51.1% boys). We found that: (a) social anxiety has a direct positive effect on internal attributional style, and a direct negative effect on self-concept. Social anxiety also has an indirect negative effect on internal causal attributions; (b) prior performance (first academic trimester) exerts a direct positive effect on intelligence, achievement goals, academic self-concept, and final academic performance (third academic trimester), and a direct negative effect on internal causal attributions. It also has an indirect positive effect on causal attributions (internal and external), learning goals, achievement goals, and study strategies; (c) intelligence has a direct positive effect on learning goals and academic performance (third academic trimester); (d) academic self-concept has a direct positive effect on internal and external attributional style. Also, has an indirect effect on learning goals, achievement goals, and learning strategies; (e) internal attributional style has a direct positive effect on learning strategies and learning goals. Has a positive but indirect effect on achievement goals and learning strategies; (f) external attributional style has a direct negative effect on learning strategies and learning goals and a direct positive effect on internal causal attributions; (g) learning goals have direct positive effect on learning strategies and achievement goals. The structural equation model fit the data well (CFI = .91; RMSEA = .04), explaining 93.8% of the variance in academic performance. Finally, we emphasize that the new causal-explanatory model proposed in the present study represents a significant contribution in that it includes social anxiety as an explanatory variable of cognitive-motivational constructs.

Keywords: academic performance, adolescence, cognitive-motivational variables, social anxiety

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Authors: Nouf A. Aldarmahi, Nesrin I. Tarbiah, Nuha A. Alkhattabi, Huda F. Alshaibi

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Nigella sativa which is known as dark cumin is a well-known example for a widely applicable herbal medicine. Nigella sativa can be effective in a variety of diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, bronchitis, gastrointestinal upset, and cancer. The anticancer effect of Nigella sativa appeared to be mediated by immune-modulatory effect through stimulating human natural killer (NK) cells. This is a type of lymphocytes which is part of the innate immunity, also known as the first line of defense in the body against pathogens. This study investigated the effect of thymoquinone as a major component of Nigella sativa on the molecular cytotoxic pathway of NK cell and the role of thymoquinone therapeutic effect on NK cells. NK cells were cultured with breast tumor cells in different ways and cultured media was collected and the concentration of perforin, granzyme B and interferon-α were measured by ELISA. The cytotoxic effect of NK cells on breast tumor cells was enhanced in the presence of thymoquinone, with increased activity of perforin in NK cells. This improved anticancer effect of thymoquinone on breast cancer cells.

Keywords: breast cancer, cancer cells, natural killer cells, thymoquinone

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Authors: Slava Kalyuga, Sujanya Sombatteera

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In multimedia learning, written text is often transformed into spoken (narrated) text. This transient information may overwhelm limited processing capacity of working memory and inhibit learning instead of improving it. The paper reviews recent empirical studies in modality and verbal redundancy effects within a cognitive load framework and outlines conditions under which negative effects of transiency may occur. According to the modality effect, textual information accompanying pictures should be presented in an auditory rather than visual form in order to engage two available channels of working memory – auditory and visual - instead of only one of them. However, some studies failed to replicate the modality effect and found differences opposite to those expected. Also, according to the multimedia redundancy effect, the same information should not be presented simultaneously in different modalities to avoid unnecessary cognitive load imposed by the integration of redundant sources of information. However, a few studies failed to replicate the multimedia redundancy effect too. Transiency of information is used to explain these controversial results.

Keywords: cognitive load, transient information, modality effect, verbal redundancy effect

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Authors: S. Sulaiman, M. A. Razak, M. R. Ibrahim, A. A. Khan

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An experimental work on the effect of different current and pulse duration on performance of EDM process of Allegheny Ludlum D2 Tool Steel (UNS T30402). The effect of varying the machining parameters on the machining responses such as material removal rate (MRR), electrode wear rate (EWR), and surface roughness (Ra) have been investigated. In this study, triangular shape and circular shape of copper was used as an electrode with surface area of 100 mm². The experiments were repeated for three different values of pulse duration (100 µs, 200 µs and 400 µs) with combination of three different values of discharge current (12 A, 16 A and 24 A). It was found that the pulse duration and current have significant effect on MRR, EWR and Ra. An increase in the pulse durations causes an increase in the MRR and Ra, but a decrease in the EWR. Meanwhile, the effect of currents on EDM performance shows that the increasing currents lead to an increase in the MRR, EWR and Ra.

Keywords: allegheny ludlum D2 tool steel, current, EDM, surface roughness, pulse duration

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Authors: Varsha Prasad, S. Sandya

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Cosmic Ray effects in microelectronics such as single event effect (SET) and total dose ionization (TID) have been of major concern in space electronics since 1970. Advanced CMOS technologies have demonstrated reduced sensitivity to TID effect. However, charge pump Phase Locked Loop is very much vulnerable to single event transient effect. This paper presents an SET analysis model, where the SET is modeled as a double exponential pulse. The time domain analysis reveals that the settling time of the voltage controlled oscillator (VCO) depends on the SET pulse strength, setting the time constant and the damping factor. The analysis of the proposed SET analysis model is confirmed by the simulation results.

Keywords: charge pump, phase locked loop, SET, VCO

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Authors: Hayder Raad Hafuze, Munqith Saleem Dawood, Jamal Abdul Jabbar

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The effect of using both ultrasounds with laser in medical imaging of the biological tissue has been studied in this paper. Different wave lengths of incident laser light (405 nm, 532 nm, 650 nm, 808 nm and 1064 nm) were used with different ultrasound frequencies (1MHz and 3.3MHz). The results showed that, the change of acoustic intensity enhance the laser penetration of the tissue for different thickness. The existence of the ideal Raman-Nath diffraction pattern were investigated in terms of phase delay and incident angle.

Keywords: tissue, laser, ultrasound, effect, imaging

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Authors: Fatima Ghassan Al-Abtah, Naser Al-Huniti, Elsadig Mahdi

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As the lightest constructional metal on earth, magnesium alloys offer excellent potential for weight reduction in the transportation industry, and it was observed that some magnesium alloys exhibit superior ductility and superplastic behavior at high temperatures. The main limitation of the superplastic forming (SPF) includes the low production rate since it needs a long forming time for each part. Through this study, an SPF process that starts with a mechanical pre-forming stage is developed to promote formability and reduce forming time. A two-dimensional finite element model is used to simulate the process. The forming process consists of two steps. At the pre-forming step (deep drawing), the sheet is drawn into the die to a preselected level, using a mechanical punch, and at the second step (SPF) a pressurized gas is applied at a controlled rate. It is shown that a significant reduction in forming time and improved final thickness uniformity can be achieved when the hybrid forming technique is used, where the process achieved a fully formed part at 400°C. Investigation for the impact of different forming process parameters achieved by comparing forming time and the distribution of final thickness that were obtained from the simulation analysis. Maximum thinning decreased from over 67% to less than 55% and forming time significantly decreased by more than 6 minutes, and the required gas pressure profile was predicted for optimum forming process parameters based on the 0.001/sec target constant strain rate within the sheet.

Keywords: magnesium, plasticity, superplastic forming, finite element analysis

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

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Authors: S. Phanyaem

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This paper presents the confidence intervals for the effect size base on bootstrap resampling method. The meta-analytic confidence interval for effect size is proposed that are easy to compute. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare the performance of the proposed confidence intervals with the existing confidence intervals. The best confidence interval method will have a coverage probability close to 0.95. Simulation results have shown that our proposed confidence intervals perform well in terms of coverage probability and expected length.

Keywords: effect size, confidence interval, bootstrap method, resampling

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Abdelghafour Galadi

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In this paper, accurate power MOSFET models including quasi-saturation effect are presented. These models have no internal node voltages determined by the circuit simulator and use one JFET or one depletion mode MOSFET transistors controlled by an “effective” gate voltage taking into account the quasi-saturation effect. The proposed models achieve accurate simulation results with an average error percentage less than 9%, which is an improvement of 21 percentage points compared to the commonly used standard power MOSFET model. In addition, the models can be integrated in any available commercial circuit simulators by using their analytical equations. A description of the models will be provided along with the parameter extraction procedure.

Keywords: power MOSFET, drift layer, quasi-saturation effect, SPICE model

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Eyyup Murat Karakurt, Yan Huang, Mehmet Kaya, Huseyin Demirtas

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In this study, the effect of the porosity effect of Ti-20Zr alloy produced by powder metallurgy as a biomaterial was investigated experimentally. The Ti based alloys (Ti-20%Zr (at.) were produced under 300 MPa, for 6 h at 1200 °C. Afterward, the microstructure of the Ti-based alloys was analyzed by optical analysis, scanning electron microscopy, energy dispersive spectrometry. Moreover, compression tests were applied to determine the mechanical behaviour of samples. As a result, highly porous Ti-20Zr alloys exhibited an elastic modulus close to human bone. The results later were compared theoretically and experimentally.

Keywords: porosity effect, Ti based alloys, elastic modulus, compression test

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Authors: A. A. Azab

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In this work, Sm0.6Sr0.4CoxMn1-xO3 (x=0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3) was synthesized by sol-gel method for magnetocaloric effect (MCE) applications. XRD analysis confirmed formation of the required orthorhombic phase of perovskite, and there is crystallographic phase transition as a result of substitution. Maxwell-Wagner interfacial polarisation and Koops phenomenological theory were used to investigate and analyze the temperature and frequency dependency of the dielectric permittivity. The phase transition from the ferromagnetic to the paramagnetic state was demonstrated to be second order. Based on the isothermal magnetization curves obtained at various temperatures, the magnetic entropy change was calculated. A magnetocaloric effect (MCE) over a wide temperature range was studied by determining DSM and the relative cooling power (RCP).

Keywords: magnetocaloric effect, pperovskite, magnetic phase transition, dielectric permittivity

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Authors: Amit Kumar, Jaikumar V, Pradeep AG, Shivakumar Bhavi

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Reducing sloshing is one of the major challenges in industries where transporting of liquid involved. The present study investigates the sloshing effect for different liquid levels 25%, 50%, and 75% of the tank capacity. CFD simulation for three different liquid levels has been carried out using a time-based multiphase Volume of fluid (VOF) scheme. Baffles were introduced to examine the sloshing effect inside the tank. Results were compared against the baseline case to assess the effectiveness of baffles. Maximum liquid height over the period of the simulation was considered as the parameter for measuring the sloshing effect inside the tank. It was found that the addition of baffles reduced the sloshing effect inside the tank as compared to the baseline model.

Keywords: sloshing, CFD, VOF, baffles

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Authors: M. Duran Toksari, Berrin Ucarkus

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In this paper, we propose two algorithms to optimally solve makespan and total completion time scheduling problems with learning effect and job dependent delivery times in a single machine environment. The delivery time is the extra time to eliminate adverse effect between the main processing and delivery to the customer. In this paper, we introduce the job dependent delivery times for some single machine scheduling problems with position dependent learning effect, which are makespan are total completion. The results with respect to two algorithms proposed for solving of the each problem are compared with LINGO solutions for 50-jobs, 100-jobs and 150-jobs problems. The proposed algorithms can find the same results in shorter time.

Keywords: delivery Times, learning effect, makespan, scheduling, total completion time

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Authors: Saurabh Farkya, Govinda Surampudi

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Optical Character Recognition is one of the current major research areas. This paper is focussed on recognition of Devanagari script and its sound generation. This Paper consists of two parts. First, Optical Character Recognition of Devnagari handwritten Script. Second, speech synthesis of the recognized text. This paper shows an implementation of support vector machines for the purpose of Devnagari Script recognition. The Support Vector Machines was trained with Multi Domain features; Transform Domain and Spatial Domain or Structural Domain feature. Transform Domain includes the wavelet feature of the character. Structural Domain consists of Distance Profile feature and Gradient feature. The Segmentation of the text document has been done in 3 levels-Line Segmentation, Word Segmentation, and Character Segmentation. The pre-processing of the characters has been done with the help of various Morphological operations-Otsu's Algorithm, Erosion, Dilation, Filtration and Thinning techniques. The Algorithm was tested on the self-prepared database, a collection of various handwriting. Further, Unicode was used to convert recognized Devnagari text into understandable computer document. The document so obtained is an array of codes which was used to generate digitized text and to synthesize Hindi speech. Phonemes from the self-prepared database were used to generate the speech of the scanned document using concatenation technique.

Keywords: Character Recognition (OCR), Text to Speech (TTS), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Library of Support Vector Machines (LIBSVM)

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Authors: Guoyu Lin

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This paper explores the role investor sentiment plays in the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion and stock returns. With short sale constraints, stock prices are determined by the optimistic investors. During the high sentiment periods when investors suffer more from psychological bias, there are more optimistic investors. This is the first paper to document that following the high sentiment periods, stocks with the most analyst forecast dispersion are overpriced, earning significantly negative returns, while those with the least analyst forecast dispersion are not overpriced as the degree of belief dispersion is low. However, following the low sentiment periods, both are not overpriced. A portfolio which longs the least dispersed stocks and shorts the most dispersed stocks yields significantly positive returns only following the high sentiment periods. My findings can potentially reconcile the puzzling risk effect and mispricing effect in the literature. The risk (mispricing) effect suggests a positive (negative) relation between analyst forecast dispersion and future stock returns. Presumably, the magnitude of the mispricing effect depends on the proportion of irrational investors and their bias, which is positively related to investor sentiment. During the high sentiment period, the mispricing effect takes over and the overall effect is negative. During the low sentiment period, the percentage of irrational investors is mediate, and the mispricing effect and the risk effect counter each other, leading to insignificant relation.

Keywords: analyst forecast dispersion, short-sale constraints, investor sentiment, stock returns

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Authors: Goodness C. Aye

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This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

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Authors: Vera Diyanty, Akhmad Syahroza

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This research aims to describe an empirical evidence of the influence of family control on the company’s financing policy. Additionally, this research also shows the effect of leadership from family member and the effectiveness of the board of commissioners on companies’ financing policy. The result of this study found that family control through direct and indirect ownership mechanism have a positive impact on the choice of bank loan compare to public debt. Nevertheless, this research also shows that companies’ founders who become CEO and the effectiveness of board of commissioners do not prove to increase the alignment effect nor decrease the negative impact of entrenchment effect on the bank loan preference.

Keywords: family controlling, family CEO, board effectiveness, financing policy

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Authors: Yi Jin, Xu Tang, Cuiyang Feng

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The ‘11th five-year’ and ‘12th five-year’ plans have clearly put forward to strictly control the total amount and intensity of energy and water consumption. The synergy effect of energy and water has rarely been considered in the process of energy and water saving in China, where its contribution cannot be maximized. Energy sectors consume large amounts of energy and water when producing massive energy, which makes them both energy and water intensive. Therefore, the synergy effect in these sectors is significant. This paper assesses and optimizes the synergy effect in three energy sectors under the background of promoting energy and water saving. Results show that: From the perspective of critical path, chemical industry, mining and processing of non-metal ores and smelting and pressing of metals are coupling points in the process of energy and water flowing to energy sectors, in which the implementation of energy and water saving policies can bring significant synergy effect. Multi-objective optimization shows that increasing efforts on input restructuring can effectively improve synergy effects; relatively large synergetic energy saving and little water saving are obtained after solely reducing the energy and water intensity of coupling sectors. By optimizing the input structure of sectors, especially the coupling sectors, the synergy effect of energy and water saving can be improved in energy sectors under the premise of keeping economy running stably.

Keywords: critical path, energy sector, multi-objective optimization, synergy effect, water

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