Search results for: causal inference

Authors: Misagh Faezipour

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This paper explores the effects of screen time on children from a systems engineering perspective. We reviewed literature from several related works on the effects of screen time on children to explore all factors and interrelationships that would impact children that are subjected to using long screen times. Factors such as kids' age, parent attitudes, parent screen time influence, amount of time kids spend with technology, psychosocial and physical health outcomes, reduced mental imagery, problem-solving and adaptive thinking skills, obesity, unhealthy diet, depressive symptoms, health problems, disruption in sleep behavior, decrease in physical activities, problematic relationship with mothers, language, social, emotional delays, are examples of some factors that could be either a cause or effect of screen time. A systems engineering perspective is used to explore all the factors and factor relationships that were discovered through literature. A causal model is used to illustrate a graphical representation of these factors and their relationships. Through the causal model, the factors with the highest impacts can be realized. Future work would be to develop a system dynamics model to view the dynamic behavior of the relationships and observe the impact of changes in different factors in the model. The different changes on the input of the model, such as a healthier diet or obesity rate, would depict the effect of the screen time in the model and portray the effect on the children’s health and other factors that are important, which also works as a decision support tool.

Keywords: children, causal model, screen time, systems engineering, system dynamics

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Authors: Yingxu Wang, Jianhua Lu, Jun Peng, Jiawei Zhang

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The fundamental demand in contemporary intelligent science towards Autonomous AI (AI*) is the creation of unprecedented formal means of Intelligent Mathematics (IM). It is discovered that natural intelligence is inductively created rather than exhaustively trained. Therefore, IM is a family of algebraic and denotational mathematics encompassing Inference Algebra, Real-Time Process Algebra, Concept Algebra, Semantic Algebra, Visual Frame Algebra, etc., developed in our labs. IM plays indispensable roles in training-free AI* theories and systems beyond traditional empirical data-driven technologies. A set of applications of IM-driven AI* systems will be demonstrated in contemporary intelligence science, AI*, and cognitive computers.

Keywords: intelligence mathematics, foundations of intelligent science, autonomous AI, cognitive computers, inference algebra, real-time process algebra, concept algebra, semantic algebra, applications

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Authors: Yul Y. Nazaruddin, Anas Y. Widiaribowo, Satriyo Nugroho

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Boiler is one of the critical unit in a petrochemical plant. Steam produced by the boiler is used for various processes in the plant such as urea and ammonia plant. An alternative method to optimize the boiler combustion system is presented in this paper. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) approach is applied to model the boiler using real-time operational data collected from a boiler unit of the petrochemical plant. Nonlinear equation obtained is then used to optimize the air to fuel ratio using Genetic Algorithm, resulting an optimal ratio of 15.85. This optimal ratio is then maintained constant by ratio controller designed using inverse dynamics based on ANFIS. As a result, constant value of oxygen content in the flue gas is obtained which indicates more efficient combustion process.

Keywords: ANFIS, boiler, combustion process, genetic algorithm, optimization.

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, D. Meena

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Growth of traffic brings various negative effects, such as road accidents. To avoid such problems, a model is developed for the purpose of highway safety. In such areas, fuzzy logic is the most well-known simulation in the larger field. A model is accomplished for hilly and steep terrain based on Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), for which output is super elevation and input data is horizontal radius, vertical gradient, accident rate (AR). This result shows that the system can be efficaciously applied as for highway safety tool distinguishing hazards components correlated to the characteristics of the highway and has a great influence to the making of decision for accident precaution in transportation models. From this model, a positive relationship between geometric elements, accident rate, and super elevation is also identified.

Keywords: accident rate, fuzzy inference system, fuzzy logic, gradient, radius, super elevation

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Authors: Maitreyee Datta

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Buddhist lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā is not the result of the causal analysis of the genesis of it. Naiyāyikas, on the other hand, has provided the lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa in terms of the causal analysis of it. Thus, though in these two philosophical systems philosophers have discussed in detail the nature of pratyakṣa pramā (perception), yet their treatments and understanding of it vary according to their respective understanding of pramā and prmāņa and their relationship. In Nyāya school, the definition (lakṣņa) of perception (pratyakṣa) has been given in terms of the process by virtue of which it has been generated. Thus, Naiyāyikas were found to provide a causal account of perception (pratyakṣa) by virtue of their lakṣaņa of it. But in Buddhist epistemology perception has been defined by virtue of the nature of perceptual knowledge (pratyakṣa pramā) which is devoid of any vikalpa or cognition. These two schools differed due to their different metaphysical presuppositions which determine their epistemological pursuits. The Naiyāyikas admitted pramā and pramāņa as separate events and they have taken pramāņa to be the cause of pramā. These presuppositions enabled them to provide a lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa pramā in terms of the causes by which it is generated. Why did the Buddhist epistemologists define perception by the unique nature of perceptual knowledge instead of the process by which it is generated? This question will be addressed and dealt with in the present paper. In doing so, the unique purpose of Buddhist philosophy will be identified which will enable us to find out an answer to the above question. This enterprise will also reveal the close relationship among some basic Buddhist presuppositions like pratityasamutpādavāda and kṣaņikavāda with Buddhist epistemological positions. In other words, their distinctive notion of pramā (knowledge) indicates their unique epistemological position which is found to comply with their basic philosophical presuppositions. The first section of the paper will present the Buddhist epistemologists’ lakṣaņa of pratyakṣa. The analysis of the lakṣaņa will be given in clear terms to reveal the nature of pratyakṣa as an instance of pramā. In the second section, an effort will be made to identify the uniqueness of such a definition. Here an articulation will be made in which the relationship among basic Buddhist presuppositions and their unique epistemological positions are determined. In the third section of the paper, an effort will be made to compare Nyāya epistemologist’s position regarding pratyakṣa with that of the Buddhist epistemologist.

Keywords: laksana, prama, pramana, pratyksa

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Authors: Ananda Perera

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Computer-Assisted Medical Evaluation of Symptoms (CAMEOS) is a medical expert system designed to help General Practices (GPs) make an accurate diagnosis. CAMEOS comprises a knowledge base, user input, inference engine, reasoning module, and output statement. The knowledge base was developed by the author. User input is an Html file. The physician user collects data in the consultation. Data is sent to the inference engine at servers. CAMEOS uses set theory to simulate diagnostic reasoning. The program output is a list of differential diagnoses, the most probable diagnosis, and the diagnostic reasoning.

Keywords: CDSS, computerized decision support systems, expert systems, general practice, diagnosis, diagnostic systems, primary care diagnostic system, artificial intelligence in medicine

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Authors: Shahanaz Aboobacker Ahmed, P. Ajilal

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We live in the ‘age of migration’ where global migration and repatriation is the stark reality of human lives in the contemporary world. With increasing number of people migrating and repatriating for education, work, or crisis situations, there is an ever-growing need for active research into the effects of repatriation and migration on the psychological well-being of the migrants and expatriates. Moving across borders has resulted in individual developing a third culture and hence such individual are known as Third Culture Kids (TCKs). The aim of the study was to understand the difference in the resilience between Third Culture Kids and Non- Third Culture Kids and gain an insight into how resilience is shaped by migratory experience. The sample comprised of 200 participants that included 100 TCKs and 100 Non-TCKs. The participants were in the age range group of 17-26 years and were pursuing their college education in various parts of the world. The variable of Resilience was measured using the Resilience scale developed and standardized on TCK population which included subtests; Emotional Regulation, Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Self Efficacy, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. The data was obtained from in-person sessions and over Skype. The data was analyzed using independent sample t-tests. Results indicated that there is a significant difference between TCKs and Non-TCKs on Impulse Control, Causal Analysis, Realistic Optimism, Empathy and Reaching Out. However, no significant difference was found on the sub-variables of Self Efficacy and Emotional Regulation.

Keywords: third culture kids, resilience, immigration, cross-cultural psychology, repatriation, emotional maturity, emotional regulation, impulse control, causal analysis, self-efficacy, realistic optimism, empathy, reaching out

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Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam

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Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.

Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR

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Authors: Bandreddy Anand Babu, Srinivasa Rao Mandadi, C. Pradeep Reddy, N. Ramesh Babu

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In this paper quickly illustrate the correlation investigation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) and daptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models done by climate estimating. The climate determining is taken from University of Waterloo. The information is taken as Relative Humidity, Ambient Air Temperature, Barometric Pressure and Wind Direction utilized within this paper. The paper is carried out by analyzing the exhibitions are seen by demonstrating of ARIMA and ANIFIS model like with Sum of average of errors. Versatile Network Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) demonstrating is carried out by Mat lab programming and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving and Average (ARIMA) displaying is produced by utilizing XLSTAT programming. ANFIS is carried out in Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in Mat Lab programming.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANFIS, fuzzy surmising tool stash, weather forecasting, MATLAB

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

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Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zouri

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The actual purpose of RoboCup is creating independent team of robots in 2050 based of FiFa roles to bring the victory in compare of world star team. There is unbelievable growing of Robots created a collection of complex and motivate subject in robotic and intellectual ornate, also it made a mechatronics style base of theoretical and technical way in Robocop. Decision making of robots depends to environment reaction, self-player and rival player with using inductive Fuzzy system valuation subsidiary to solve issue of robots in land game. The measure of selection in compare with other methods depends to amount of victories percentage in the same team that plays accidentally.

Keywords: particle swarm optimization, chaos theory, inference fuzzy system, simulation environment rational fuzzy system, mamdani and assilian, deffuzify

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Authors: Bernard Igoche Igoche, Olumuyiwa Matthew, Peter Bednar, Alexander Gegov

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This study presents an ontology-driven approach for knowledge discovery and validation from admission databases in Nigerian polytechnic institutions. The research aims to address the challenges of extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of admission data and utilizing them for decision-making and process improvement. The proposed methodology combines the knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) process with a structural causal model (SCM) ontological framework. The admission database of Benue State Polytechnic Ugbokolo (Benpoly) is used as a case study. The KDD process is employed to mine and distill knowledge from the database, while the SCM ontology is designed to identify and validate the important features of the admission process. The SCM validation is performed using the conditional independence test (CIT) criteria, and an algorithm is developed to implement the validation process. The identified features are then used for machine learning (ML) modeling and prediction of admission status. The results demonstrate the adequacy of the SCM ontological framework in representing the admission process and the high predictive accuracies achieved by the ML models, with k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and support vector machine (SVM) achieving 92% accuracy. The study concludes that the proposed ontology-driven approach contributes to the advancement of educational data mining and provides a foundation for future research in this domain.

Keywords: admission databases, educational data mining, machine learning, ontology-driven knowledge discovery, polytechnic education, structural causal model

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Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

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In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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Authors: M. Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Dimchev, V. Stoilkov

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Accurate determination of wind turbine performance is necessary for economic operation of a wind farm. At present, the procedure to carry out the power performance verification of wind turbines is based on a standard of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC). In this paper, nonparametric statistical inference is applied to designing a simple, inexpensive method of verifying the power performance of a wind turbine. A statistical test is explained, examined, and the adequacy is tested over real data. The methods use the information that is collected by the SCADA system (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) from the sensors embedded in the wind turbines in order to carry out the power performance verification of a wind farm. The study has used data on the monthly output of wind farm in the Republic of Macedonia, and the time measuring interval was from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2016. At the end, it is concluded whether the power performance of a wind turbine differed significantly from what would be expected. The results of the implementation of the proposed methods showed that the power performance of the specific wind farm under assessment was acceptable.

Keywords: canonical correlation analysis, power curve, power performance, wind energy

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins's problem, double-input rule module, fuzzy inference model, obstacle avoidance, single-input rule module

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Authors: Lisandy Arinta Suryana, Santi Novani, Utomo Sarjono

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Paradox of business strategic is associated with the contradictory practice. It becomes one of the critical way to survive and win in the dynamic competitive landscape – high level of uncertainty and rapid change in the business environment. Those characteristics are similar with the environment of hijab fashion business, especially in Indonesia. This paper aims to describe the success of paradoxical strategic based on historical data of hijab fashion business which have been validated by qualitative approach. This paper discusses two main aspects of paradoxical strategic such as paradox in human resource management, and logistic center management. Then, the detail effects from each practice are described in term of causal loop diagram. Moreover, the practice of paradoxical strategic depends on leadership that can make a brave and dynamic decision by capturing the main problems and opportunities in their business, and also build commitment to achieve a specific goal.

Keywords: paradox of business strategic, paradoxical strategic, causal loop diagram, sustainable business, hijab fashion business, business strategic

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Authors: Hassan Naseh, Javad Roozgard

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This paper represents the methodology based on Artificial Intelligent (AI) applied to Liquid Propellant Engine (LPE) optimization. The AI methodology utilized from Adaptive neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In this methodology, the optimum objective function means to achieve maximum performance (specific impulse). The independent design variables in ANFIS modeling are combustion chamber pressure and temperature and oxidizer to fuel ratio and output of this modeling are specific impulse that can be applied with other objective functions in LPE design optimization. To this end, the LPE’s parameter has been modeled in ANFIS methodology based on generating fuzzy inference system structure by using grid partitioning, subtractive clustering and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering for both inferences (Mamdani and Sugeno) and various types of membership functions. The final comparing optimization results shown accuracy and processing run time of the Gaussian ANFIS Methodology between all methods.

Keywords: ANFIS methodology, artificial intelligent, liquid propellant engine, optimization

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Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

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This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: energy consumption, financial development, FATF countries, Panel VECM

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Authors: Francesco Ceresia

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Workplace aggression is broadly recognized as a main work-related risk for healthcare organizations the world over. Scholars underlined that nonfatal workplace aggressions can be also produced by Type II workplace aggression, that occur when the aggressor has a legitimate relationship with the organization and commits an act of hostility while being served or cared for by members of the organization. Several reviews and meta-analysis highlighted the main antecedents and consequences of Type II verbal and physical workplace aggression in the healthcare sector, also focusing on its economic and psychosocial costs. However, some scholars emphasized the need for a systemic and multi-factorial approach to deeply understand and effectively respond to such kind of aggression. The main aim of the study is to propose a qualitative model of Type II workplace aggression in a health care organization in accordance with the system thinking and multi-factorial perspective. A case study research approach, conducted in an Italian non-hospital healthcare organization, is presented. Two main data collection methods have been adopted: individual and group interviews with a sample (N = 24) of physicians, nurses and clericals. A causal loop diagram (CLD) that describes the main causal relationships among the key-variables of the proposed model has been outlined. The main feedback loops and the causal link polarities have been also defined to fully describe the structure underlining the Type II workplace aggression phenomenon. The proposed qualitative model shows how the Type II workplace aggression is related with burnout, work performance, job satisfaction, turnover intentions, work motivation and emotional dissonance. Finally, strategies and policies to reduce the strength of workplace aggression’s drivers are suggested.

Keywords: healthcare, system thinking, work motivation, workplace aggression

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Authors: Hounyèmè Romuald, Mama Daouda, Argillier Christine

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The present study focused on the use of benthic macrofauna to define the reference state of an anthropized lagoon (Nokoué-Benin) from the responses of relevant metrics to proxies. The approach used is a combination of a joint species distribution model and Bayesian networks. The joint species distribution model was used to select the relevant metrics and generate posterior probabilities that were then converted into posterior response probabilities for each of the quality classes (pressure levels), which will constitute the conditional probability tables allowing the establishment of the probabilistic graph representing the different causal relationships between metrics and pressure proxies. For the definition of the reference thresholds, the predicted responses for low-pressure levels were read via probability density diagrams. Observations collected during high and low water periods spanning 03 consecutive years (2004-2006), sampling 33 macroinvertebrate taxa present at all seasons and sampling points, and measurements of 14 environmental parameters were used as application data. The study demonstrated reliable inferences, selection of 07 relevant metrics and definition of quality thresholds for each environmental parameter. The relevance of the metrics as well as the reference thresholds for ecological assessment despite the small sample size, suggests the potential for wider applicability of the approach for aquatic ecosystem monitoring and assessment programs in developing countries generally characterized by a lack of monitoring data.

Keywords: pressure proxies, bayesian inference, bioindicators, acadjas, functional traits

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: John McDowall, Lucy Lightfoot

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Stigma constitutes a significant barrier to the recovery and social integration of individuals affected by mental illness. Although there is some debate in the literature regarding the definition and utility of stigma as a concept, it is widely accepted that it comprises three components: stereotypical beliefs, prejudicial reactions, and discrimination. Stereotypical beliefs describe the cognitive knowledge-based component of stigma, referring to beliefs (often negative) about members of a group that is based on cultural and societal norms (e.g. ‘People with anxiety are just weak’). Prejudice refers to the affective/evaluative component of stigma and describes the endorsement of negative stereotypes and the resulting negative emotional reactions (e.g. ‘People with anxiety are just weak, and they frustrate me’). Discrimination refers to the behavioural component of stigma, which is arguably the most problematic, as it exerts a direct effect on the stigmatized person and may lead people to behave in a hostile or avoidant way towards them (i.e. refusal to hire them). Research exploring anti-stigma initiatives focus primarily on an educational approach, with the view that accurate information will replace misconceptions and decrease stigma. Many approaches take a biogenetic stance, emphasising brain and biochemical deficits - the idea being that ‘mental illness is an illness like any other.' While this approach tends to effectively reduce blame, it has also demonstrated negative effects such as increasing prognostic pessimism, the desire for social distance and perceptions of stereotypes. In the present study 144 participants were split into three groups and read one of three vignettes presenting causal explanations for Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD): One explanation emphasized biogenetic factors as being important in the etiology of GAD, another emphasised psychosocial factors (e.g. aversive life events, poverty, etc.), and a third stressed the adaptive features of the disorder from an evolutionary viewpoint. A variety of measures tapping the various components of stigma were administered following the vignettes. No difference in stigma measures as a function of causal explanation was found. People who had contact with mental illness in the past were significantly less stigmatising across a wide range of measures, but this did not interact with the type of causal explanation.

Keywords: generalised anxiety disorder, discrimination, prejudice, stigma

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Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

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What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

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Authors: Azzedine Hamza, Chouaib Chakour, Messaoud Ramdani

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Energy demand prediction plays a crucial role in achieving next-generation power systems for agricultural greenhouses. As a result, high prediction quality is required for efficient smart grid management and therefore low-cost energy consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of a hybrid data-driven model in day-ahead energy demand prediction. The proposed model consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The DWT is employed to decompose the original signal in a set of subseries and then an ANFIS is used to generate the forecast for each subseries. The proposed hybrid method (DWT-ANFIS) was evaluated using a greenhouse energy demand data for a week and compared with ANFIS. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was demonstrated that discret wavelet transform can improve agricultural greenhouse energy demand modeling.

Keywords: wavelet transform, ANFIS, energy consumption prediction, greenhouse

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Authors: Kharisma Utomo Mulyodinoto, Suwarno, A. Abu-Siada

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Dissolved Gas Analysis is one of impressive technique to detect and predict internal fault of transformers by using gas generated by transformer oil sample. A number of methods are used to interpret the dissolved gas from transformer oil sample: Doernenberg Ratio Method, IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) Ratio Method, and Duval Triangle Method. While the assessment of dissolved gas within transformer oil samples has been standardized over the past two decades, analysis of the results is not always straight forward as it depends on personnel expertise more than mathematical formulas. To get over this limitation, this paper is aimed at improving the interpretation of Doernenberg Ratio Method, IEC Ratio Method, and Duval Triangle Method using Two Stages Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Dissolved gas analysis data from 520 faulty transformers was analyzed to establish the proposed ANFIS model. Results show that the developed ANFIS model is accurate and can standardize the dissolved gas interpretation process with accuracy higher than 90%.

Keywords: ANFIS, dissolved gas analysis, Doernenberg ratio method, Duval triangular method, IEC ratio method, transformer

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Authors: Eftychia Kessopoulou, Styliani Xanthopoulou, Ypatia Theodorakioglou, George Tsiotras, Katerina Gotzamani

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Public sector managers frequently herald that implementing best practices as a set of standards, may lead to superior organizational performance. However, recent research questions the objectification of best practices, highlighting: a) the inability of public sector organizations to develop innovative administrative practices, as well as b) the adoption of stereotypical renowned practices inculcated in the public sector by international governance bodies. The process through which organizations construe what a best practice is, still remains a black box that is yet to be investigated, given the trend of continuous changes in public sector performance, as well as the burgeoning interest of sharing popular administrative practices put forward by international bodies. This study aims to describe and understand how organizational best practices are constructed by public sector performance management teams, like benchmarkers, during the benchmarking-mediated performance improvement process and what mechanisms enable this construction. A critical realist action research methodology is employed, starting from a description of various approaches on best practice nature when a benchmarking-mediated performance improvement initiative, such as the Common Assessment Framework, is applied. Firstly, we observed the benchmarker’s management process of best practices in a public organization, so as to map their theories-in-use. As a second step we contextualized best administrative practices by reflecting the different perspectives emerged from the previous stage on the design and implementation of an interview protocol. We used this protocol to conduct 30 semi-structured interviews with “best practice” process owners, in order to examine their experiences and performance needs. Previous research on best practices has shown that needs and intentions of benchmarkers cannot be detached from the causal mechanisms of the various contexts in which they work. Such causal mechanisms can be found in: a) process owner capabilities, b) the structural context of the organization, and c) state regulations. Therefore, we developed an interview protocol theoretically informed in the first part to spot causal mechanisms suggested by previous research studies and supplemented it with questions regarding the provision of best practice support from the government. Findings of this work include: a) a causal account of the nature of best administrative practices in the Greek public sector that shed light on explaining their management, b) a description of the various contexts affecting best practice conceptualization, and c) a description of how their interplay changed the organization’s best practice management.

Keywords: benchmarking, action research, critical realism, best practices, public sector

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Authors: Claudia Ehrentraut, Osama Ibrahim, Hercules Dalianis

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Policy making situations are real-world problems that exhibit complexity in that they are composed of many interrelated problems and issues. To be effective, policies must holistically address the complexity of the situation rather than propose solutions to single problems. Formulating and understanding the situation and its complex dynamics, therefore, is a key to finding holistic solutions. Analysis of text based information on the policy problem, using Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Text analysis techniques, can support modelling of public policy problem situations in a more objective way based on domain experts knowledge and scientific evidence. The objective behind this study is to support modelling of public policy problem situations, using text analysis of verbal descriptions of the problem. We propose a formal methodology for analysis of qualitative data from multiple information sources on a policy problem to construct a causal diagram of the problem. The analysis process aims at identifying key variables, linking them by cause-effect relationships and mapping that structure into a graphical representation that is adequate for designing action alternatives, i.e., policy options. This study describes the outline of an algorithm used to automate the initial step of a larger methodological approach, which is so far done manually. In this initial step, inferences about key variables and their interrelationships are extracted from textual data to support a better problem structuring. A small prototype for this step is also presented.

Keywords: public policy, problem structuring, qualitative analysis, natural language processing, algorithm, inference extraction

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

Abstract:

Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici

Abstract:

Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Alireza Tavakoli Nia

Abstract:

In order to understand the role of the injured party's fault in dividing liability, we studied its historical background. In common law, the traditional contributory negligence rule was a complete defense. Then the legislature and judicial procedure modified that rule to one of apportionment. In Islamic law, too, the Action rule was at first used when the injured party was the sole cause, but jurists expanded the scope of this rule, so this rule was used in cases where both the injured party's fault and that of the other party are involved. There are some popular approaches for apportionment of damages. Some common law countries like Britain had chosen ‘the causal potency approach’ and ‘fixed apportionment’. Islamic countries like Iran have chosen both ‘the relative blameworthiness’ and ‘equal apportionment’ approaches. The article concludes that both common law and Islamic law believe in the division of responsibility between a wrongdoer claimant and the defendant. In contrast, in the apportionment of responsibility, Islamic law mostly believes in equal apportionment that is way easier and saves time and money, but common law legal systems have chosen the causal potency approach, which is more complicated than the rival approach but is fairer.

Keywords: contributory negligence, tort law, damage apportionment, common law, Islamic law

Procedia PDF Downloads 147