Search results for: statistical distribution

Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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The use of regularization for statistical methods has become popular. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) framework has become the standard tool for sparse regression. However, it is well known that the LASSO is sensitive to outliers or leverage points. We consider a new robust estimation which is composed of the weighted loss function of the pairwise difference of residuals and the adaptive penalty function regulating the tuning parameter for each variable. Rank regression is resistant to regression outliers, but not to leverage points. By adopting a weighted loss function, the proposed method is robust to leverage points of the predictor variable. Furthermore, the adaptive penalty function gives us good statistical properties in variable selection such as oracle property and consistency. We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the proposed estimator using basic functions in program R. We used an optimal tuning parameter based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Numerical simulation shows that the proposed estimator is effective for analyzing real data set and contaminated data.

Keywords: adaptive penalty function, robust penalized regression, variable selection, weighted rank regression

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Authors: Hakim S. Sultan Aljibori

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An experimental procedure is developed to study the performance of composite thin wall cylinders subjected to internal pressure loading for investigations of stress distribution through the composite cylinders wall. Three types of fibers were used in this study are; woven roving glass fiber/epoxy, hybrid fiber/epoxy, and Kevlar fiber/epoxy composite specimens were fabricated and tested. All of these specimens subjected to uniformed pressure load using the hydraulic pump. Axial stress is identified, and values were found after collecting all the results. Comparison between the deferent types of specimens was done. Thus, the present investigation concludes the efficient and effective composite cylinder experimentally and provides a considerable advantage for using woven roving fibers in pressure vessels applications.

Keywords: stress distribution, composite material, internal pressure, glass fiber, hybrid fiber

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Authors: M. E. Hammond, R. Pokorny

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Not much research has gone into the dynamics of natural regeneration of trees species in tropical forest regions. This study seeks to investigate the impact of gap sizes and light distribution in forest floors on the regeneration of Celtis mildbraedii (CEM), Nesogordonia papaverine (NES) and Terminalia superba (TES). These are selected economically important tree species with different shade tolerance attributes. The spatial distribution patterns and the potential regeneration competition index (RCI) among species using height to diameter ratio (HDR) have been assessed. Gap sizes ranging between 287 – 971 m² were selected at the Bia Tano forest reserve, a tropical moist semi-deciduous forest in Ghana. Four (4) transects in the cardinal directions were constructed from the center of each gap. Along each transect, ten 1 m² sampling zones at 2 m spacing were established. Then, three gap microsites (labeled ecozones I, II, III) were delineated within these sampling zones based on the varying temporal light distribution on the forest floor. Data on height (H), root collar diameter (RCD) and regeneration census were gathered from each of the ten sampling zones. CEM and NES seedlings (≤ 50 cm) and saplings (≥ 51 cm) were present in all ecozones of the large gaps. Seedlings of TES were observed in all ecozones of large and small gaps. Regression analysis showed a significant negative linear relationship between independent RCD and H growth variables on dependent HDR index in ecozones II and III of both large and small gaps. There was a correlation between RCD and H in both large and small gaps. A strong regeneration competition was observed among species in ecozone II in large (df 2, F=3.6, p=0.035) and small (df 2, F=17.9, p=0.000) gaps. These results contribute to the understanding of the natural regeneration of different species with regards to light regimes in forest floors.

Keywords: Celtis mildbraedii, ecozones, gaps, Nesogordonia papaverifera, regeneration, Terminalia superba

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

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Energy is the basic element for any country’s economic development. India is one of the most populated countries, and is dependent on fossil fuel and nuclear-based energy generation. The energy sector faces huge challenges and is dependent on the import of energy from neighboring countries to fulfill the gap in demand and supply. India has huge setbacks for efficient energy generation, distribution, and consumption, therefore they consume more quantity of energy to produce the same amount of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to the developed countries. Technology and technique use, availability, and affordability in the various sectors are varying according to their economic status. In this paper, an attempt is made to quantify the domestic electrical energy consumption in Jodhpur, India. Survey research methods have been employed and stratified sampling technique-based households were chosen for conducting the investigation. Pre-tested survey schedules are used to investigate the grassroots level study. The collected data are analyzed by employing statistical techniques. Thereafter, a multiple regression model is developed to understand the functions of total electricity consumption in the domestic sector corresponding to other independent variables including electrical appliances, age of the building, household size, education, etc. The study resulted in identifying the governing variable in energy consumption at the household level and their relationship with the efficiency of household-based electrical and energy appliances. The analysis is concluded with the recommendation for optimizing the gap in peak electrical demand and supply in the domestic sector.

Keywords: appliance, consumption, electricity, households

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Authors: Hosseini Siahi Zohreh, Sana Mohammad Jafar

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With increase in fat and over weight in children and its undesirable effects on different organisms of the body and since many of the sicknesses are due to over weight and with losing weight these sicknesses disappear, and on the other hand with mal nutrition and under weight in children other kind of sicknesses such as derogation of body's security system, frequent infection, insufficient growth, shortness, and delay in maturity etc. are some of the signs of being under weight. Therefore recognition of signs of over weight and under weight and their prevalence in children are important. To determine this difficulty we have used the body mass index as screening tool since it is very prevalent and a good and important guide and has very good relation with body fat in children. In this study 2321 students from primary schools in Behbahan have been chosen randomly and evaluated by height and weight and their body mass index have been calculated and then recorded on the BMI percentile diagram which is for age and gender. The following results obtained: The amount of total fat, over weight and slimness are 9.3, 12.1 and 12.32 percent respectively. Therefore 21.4% of the children were over weighted. It did not show any meaningful statistical relation in fat conditions among boys and girls, but there has been a meaningful statistical relation in slimness among boys and girls.

Keywords: assessment, students, Behbahan, Body Mass Index

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Authors: Elham Jafari

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of emotional intelligence training on reducing marital conflict and marital adjustment in married students of the University of Tehran. This research is an applied type in terms of purpose and a semi-experimental design of pre-test-post-test type with the control group and with follow-up test in terms of the data collection method. The statistical population of the present study consisted of all married students of the University of Tehran. In this study, 30 married students of the University of Tehran were selected by convenience sampling method as a sample that 15 people in the experimental group and 15 people in the control group were randomly selected. The method of data collection in this research was field and library. The data collection tool in the field section was two questionnaires of marital conflict and marital adjustment. To analyze the collected data, first at the descriptive level, using statistical indicators, the demographic characteristics of the sample were described by SPSS software. In inferential statistics, the statistical method used was the test of analysis of covariance. The results showed that the effect of the independent variable of emotional intelligence on the reduction of marital conflicts is statistically significant. And it can be inferred that emotional intelligence training has reduced the marital conflicts of married students of the University of Tehran in the experimental group compared to the control group. Also, the effect of the independent variable of emotional intelligence on marital adjustment was statistically significant. It can be inferred that emotional intelligence training has adjusted the marital adjustment of married students of the University of Tehran in the experimental group compared to the control group.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, marital conflicts, marital compatibility, married students

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Luyao Zhang, Tianyu Wu, Jiayi Li, Carlos-Gustavo Salas-Flores, Saad Lahrichi

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Recent advances in AI have made algorithmic trading a central role in finance. However, current research and applications are disconnected information islands. We propose a generally applicable pipeline for designing, programming, and evaluating algorithmic trading of stock and crypto tokens. Moreover, we provide comparative case studies for four conventional algorithms, including moving average crossover, volume-weighted average price, sentiment analysis, and statistical arbitrage. Our study offers a systematic way to program and compare different trading strategies. Moreover, we implement our algorithms by object-oriented programming in Python3, which serves as open-source software for future academic research and applications.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, AI for finance, fintech, machine learning, moving average crossover, volume weighted average price, sentiment analysis, statistical arbitrage, pair trading, object-oriented programming, python3

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Authors: Ebrahim Akbarzadeh, Josep A. Picas Barrachina, Maite Baile Puig

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This study focuses on a novel method for dispersion and distribution of reinforcement under high intensive shear stress to produce metal composites. The polyacrylonitrile (PAN)-based short carbon fiber (Csf) and Nextel 610 alumina fiber were dispersed under high intensive shearing at mushy zone in semi-solid of A356 by a novel method. The bundles and clusters were embedded by infiltration of slurry into the clusters, thus leading to a uniform microstructure. The fibers were embedded homogenously into the aluminum around 576-580°C with around 46% of solid fraction. Other experiments at 615°C and 568°C which are contained 0% and 90% solid respectively were not successful for dispersion and infiltration of aluminum into bundles of Csf. The alumina fiber has been cracked by high shearing load. The morphologies and crystalline phase were evaluated by SEM and XRD. The adopted thixo-process effectively improved the adherence and distribution of Csf into Al that can be developed to produce various composites by thixomixing.

Keywords: aluminum, carbon fiber, alumina fiber, thixomixing, adhesion

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Authors: Halima Adel Halim Shnishah, David Mulvaney

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Applying traditional symmetric cryptography algorithms while computing encryption and decryption provides immunity to secret keys against different attacks. One of the popular techniques generating automated secret keys is evolutionary computing by using Eureqa API tool, which got attention in 2013. In this paper, we are generating automated secret keys for image encryption and decryption using Eureqa API (tool which is used in evolutionary computing technique). Eureqa API models pseudo-random input data obtained from a suitable source to generate secret keys. The validation of generated secret keys is investigated by performing various statistical tests (histogram, chi-square, correlation of two adjacent pixels, correlation between original and encrypted images, entropy and key sensitivity). Experimental results obtained from methods including histogram analysis, correlation coefficient, entropy and key sensitivity, show that the proposed image encryption algorithms are secure and reliable, with the potential to be adapted for secure image communication applications.

Keywords: image encryption algorithms, Eureqa, statistical measurements, automated key generation

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Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Joseph Rynkiewicz

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Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is well-established method for causal effect estimation with desirable statistical properties. TMLE is a doubly robust maximum likelihood based approach that includes a secondary targeting step that optimizes the target statistical parameter. A causal interpretation of the statistical parameter requires assumptions of the Rubin causal framework. The causal effect of binary variable, E, on outcomes, Y, is defined in terms of comparisons between two potential outcomes as E[YE=1 − YE=0]. Our aim in this paper is to present an adaptation of TMLE methodology to estimate the causal effect of a non-binary categorical variable, providing a large application. We propose coding on the initial data in order to operate a binarization of the interest variable. For each category, we get a transformation of the non-binary interest variable into a binary variable, taking value 1 to indicate the presence of category (or group of categories) for an individual, 0 otherwise. Such a dummy variable makes it possible to have a pair of potential outcomes and oppose a category (or a group of categories) to another category (or a group of categories). Let E be a non-binary interest variable. We propose a complete disjunctive coding of our variable E. We transform the initial variable to obtain a set of binary vectors (dummy variables), E = (Ee : e ∈ {1, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when its category is not present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to compute a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between one category and all remaining categories. In order to illustrate the application of our strategy, first, we present the implementation of TMLE to estimate the causal effect of non-binary variable on outcome using simulated data. Secondly, we apply our TMLE adaptation to survey data from the French Political Barometer (CEVIPOF), to estimate the causal effect of education level (A five-level variable) on a potential vote in favor of the French extreme right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. Counterfactual reasoning requires us to consider some causal questions (additional causal assumptions). Leading to different coding of E, as a set of binary vectors, E = (Ee : e ∈ {2, ..., |E|}), where each vector (variable), Ee, takes the value of 0 when the first category (reference category) is present, and the value of 1 when its category is present, which allows to apply a pairwise-TMLE comparing difference in the outcome between the first level (fixed) and each remaining level. We confirmed that the increase in the level of education decreases the voting rate for the extreme right party.

Keywords: statistical inference, causal inference, super learning, targeted maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Aritras Roy, Rinku Mukherjee

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The current study couples a quasi-steady Vortex Lattice Method and a camber correcting technique, ‘Decambering’ for unsteady post-stall flow prediction. The wake is force-free and discrete such that the wake lattices move with the free-stream once shed from the wing. It is observed that the time-averaged unsteady coefficient of lift sees a relative drop at post-stall angles of attack in comparison to its steady counterpart for some angles of attack. Multiple solutions occur at post-stall and three different algorithms to choose solutions in these regimes show both unsteadiness and non-convergence of the iterations. The distribution of coefficient of lift on the wing span also shows sawtooth. Distribution of vorticity changes both along span and in the direction of the free-stream as the wake develops over time with distinct roll-up, which increases with time.

Keywords: post-stall, unsteady, wing, aerodynamics

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Authors: Natia Gigauri, Aleksandre Surmava

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According to observational data, experimental measurements, and numerical modeling, is assessed pollution of one of the industrial centers of Georgia, Rustavi city’s atmosphere with microaerosols. Monthly, daily and hourly changes of the concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 in the city atmosphere are analyzed. It is accepted that PM2.5 concentrations are always lower than PM10 concentrations, but their change curve is the same. In addition, it has been noted that the maximum concentrations of particles in the atmosphere of Rustavi city will be reached at any part of the day, which is determined by the total impact of the traffic flow and industrial facilities. By numerical modeling has calculated the influence of background western light air and gentle and fresh breeze on the distribution of PM particles in the atmosphere. Calculations showed that background light air and gentle breeze lead to an increase the concentrations of microaerosols in the city's atmosphere, while fresh breeze contribute to the dispersion of dusty clouds. As a result, the level of dust in the city is decreasing, but the distribution area is expanding.

Keywords: pollution, modelling, PM2.5, PM10, experimental measurement

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Authors: B. Dejanova, S. Petrovska, L. Todorovska, J. Pluncevic, S. Mancevska, V. Antevska, E. Sivevska, I. Karagjozova

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Introduction: Aging process is mainly related to endothelial function which may be impaired by oxidative stress (OS). Exercise is known to be beneficial to aging process, which may improve health and prevent appearance of chronic diseases in elderly. The aim of the study was to investigate the OS markers related to exercise. Methods: A number of 80 subjects (healthy volunteers) were examined (38 male and 32 female), divided in 3 age groups: group I ≤ 30 years (n=24); group II – 31-50 years (n=24); group III - ≥ 51 year (n=32). Each group was divided to subgroups of sedentary subjects (SS) and subjects who exercise (SE). Group I: SS (n=11), SE (n=13); group II: SS (n=13), SE (n=10); group III: SS (n=23) SE (n=9). Lipid peroxidation (LP) as a fluorimetric method with thiobarbituric acid was used to estimate OS. Antioxidative status was determined by cell antioxidants such as enzymes - superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GPx) and glucose 6 phosphate (G-6-PD); and by extra cell antioxidants such as glutathione reductase (GR), nitric oxide (NO) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC). Results: Increased values of LP were noticed along the aging process: group I – 3.30±0.3 µmol/L; group II – 3.91±0.2 µmol/L; group III – 3.94±0.8 µmol/L (p<0.05), while no statistical significance was found between male and female subjects. Statistical significance for OS was not found between SS and SE in group I as it was found in group II (p<0.05) and in group III (p<0.01). No statistical significance was found for all cell antioxidants and GR within the groups, while NO and TAC showed lower values in SS compared to SE in II (p<0.05) and in group III (p<0.05). Discussion and conclusion: Aging process showed increased OS which may be either due to impaired function of scavengers of free radicals or due to their enormous production. Well balanced exercise might be one of the factors that keep the integrity of blood vessel endothelium which slows down the aging process. Possible mechanism of exercise beneficial influence is shear stress by upregulation of genes coding for nitric oxide bioavailability. Thus, due to obtained results we may conclude that OS is found to be diminished in the subject groups who perform exercise.

Keywords: oxidative stress, aging process, exercise, endothelial function

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Gülşen Akın Evingür, Önder Pekcan

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The fractal analysis is a bridge between the microstructure and macroscopic properties of gels. Fractal structure is usually provided to define the complexity of crosslinked molecules. The complexity in gel systems is described by the fractal dimension (Df). In this study, polyacrylamide- graphene oxide (GO) composite gels were prepared by free radical crosslinking copolymerization. The fractal analysis of polyacrylamide- graphene oxide (GO) composite gels were analyzed in various GO contents during gelation and were investigated by using Fluorescence Technique. The analysis was applied to estimate Df s of the composite gels. Fractal dimension of the polymer composite gels were estimated based on the power law exponent values using scaling models. In addition, here we aimed to present the geometrical distribution of GO during gelation. And we observed that as gelation proceeded GO plates first organized themselves into 3D percolation cluster with Df=2.52, then goes to diffusion limited clusters with Df =1.4 and then lines up to Von Koch curve with random interval with Df=1.14. Here, our goal is to try to interpret the low conductivity and/or broad forbidden gap of GO doped PAAm gels, by the distribution of GO in the final form of the produced gel.

Keywords: composite gels, fluorescence, fractal, scaling

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Authors: Dibu Dave Mbako, Bin Cheng

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This paper study the stress variation of the welded joints in the rib-to-deck connection structure, the influence stress of the deck plate and u-rib thickness at different positions. A Finite-element model of orthotropic steel deck structure using solid element and shell element was established in ABAQUS. Under a single wheel load, the static response was analyzed to understand the structural behaviors and examine stress distribution. A parametric study showed that the geometric parameters have a significant effect on the hot spot stress at the weld toe, but has little impact on the stress concentration factor. The increase of the thickness of the deck plate will lead to the decrease of the hot spot stress at the weld toe and the maximum deflection of the deck plate. The surface stresses of the deck plate are significantly larger than those of the rib near the joint in the 80% weld penetration into the u-rib.

Keywords: orthotropic steel bridge deck, rib-to-deck connection, hot spot stress, finite element method, stress distribution

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Authors: Mohamed Thani Ibouroi, Ali Cheha, Claudine Montgelard, Veronique Arnal, Dawiyat Massoudi, Guillelme Astruc, Said Ali Ousseni Dhurham, Aurelien Besnard

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The Livingstone's flying fox (Pteropus livingstonii) and the Comorian fruit bat (P.seychellensis comorensis) are two endemic fruit bat species among the mostly threatened animals of the Comoros archipelagos. Despite their role as important ecosystem service providers like all flying fox species as pollinators and seed dispersers, little is known about their ecologies, population genetics and structures making difficult the development of evidence-based conservation strategies. In this study, we assess spatial distribution and ecological niche of both species using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) based on the recent Ensemble of Small Models (ESMs) approach using presence-only data. Population structure and genetic diversity of the two species were assessed using both mitochondrial and microsatellite markers based on non-invasive genetic samples. Our ESMs highlight a clear niche partitioning of the two sympatric species. Livingstone’s flying fox has a very limited distribution, restricted on steep slope of natural forests at high elevation. On the contrary, the Comorian fruit bat has a relatively large geographic range spread over low elevations in farmlands and villages. Our genetic analysis shows a low genetic diversity for both fruit bats species. They also show that the Livingstone’s flying fox population of the two islands were genetically isolated while no evidence of genetic differentiation was detected for the Comorian fruit bats between islands. Our results support the idea that natural habitat loss, especially the natural forest loss and fragmentation are the important factors impacting the distribution of the Livingstone’s flying fox by limiting its foraging area and reducing its potential roosting sites. On the contrary, the Comorian fruit bats seem to be favored by human activities probably because its diets are less specialized. By this study, we concluded that the Livingstone’s flying fox species and its habitat are of high priority in term of conservation at the Comoros archipelagos scale.

Keywords: Comoros islands, ecological niche, habitat loss, population genetics, fruit bats, conservation biology

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Authors: Hanna Teklu Gebregziabher

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Background: A variety of techniques for medical termination of second-trimester pregnancy can be used, but there is no consensus about which is the best. Even though most evidence suggests the combined use of intracervical Foley catheter and vaginal misoprostol is safe, effective, and acceptable method for termination of second-trimester pregnancy, which is comparable to mifepristone-misoprostol combination regimen with lower cost and no additional maternal risks. The use of mifepristone and misoprostol alone with no other procedure is still the most common procedure in different institutions for 2nd-trimester pregnancy. Methods: A cross-sectional comparative prospective study design is employed on women who were admitted for 2nd-trimester medical abortion and medical abortion failed or if there was no change in cervical status after 24 hours of 1st dose of misoprostol. The study was conducted at St. Paulose Hospital Millennium Medical College. A sample of 44 participants in each arm was necessary to give a two-tailed test, a type 1 error of 5%, 80% statistical power, and a 1:1 ratio among groups. Thus, a total of 94 cases, 47 from each arm, were recruited. Data was entered and cleaned by using Epi-info and analyzed using SPSS version 29.0 statistical software and was presented in descriptive and tabular forms. Different variables were cross-tabulated and compared for significant differences and statistical analysis using the chi-square test and independent t-test, to conclude. Result: There was a significant difference between the two groups on induction to expulsion time and number of doses used. The mean ± SD of induction to expulsion time for those used misoprostol alone was 48.09 ± 11.86 and those who used trans-cervical catheter sequentially with misoprostol were 36.7 ±6.772. Conclusion: The use of a trans-cervical Foley catheter in conjunction with misoprostol in a sequential manner is a more effective, safe, and easily accessible procedure. In addition, the cost of utilizing the catheter is less compared to the cost of misoprostol and is readily available. As a good substitute, we advised using Trans-cervical Catether even for medical abortions performed in the second trimester.

Keywords: second trimester, medical abortion, catheter, misoprostol

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Authors: Talal Al-Bazali

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Air drilling has recently received increasing acceptance by the oil and gas industry due to its unique advantages. The main advantages of air drilling include the higher rate of penetration, less formation damage, lower risk of loss of circulation. However, these advantages cannot be fully realized if thermal effects in air drilling are not well understood and minimized. Due to its high frictional coefficient, low heat conductivity, and high compressibility, air can impact the temperature distribution of bit and thus affect its bit performances. Based on energy and mass balances, a transient thermal model that predicts bit temperature is presented along with numerical solutions in this paper. In addition, several important parameters that influence bit temperature distribution are analyzed. Simulation results show that the bit temperature increases with increasing weight on bit and rotary speed but decreases as the standpipe pressure and flow rate increase. These results can be used to optimize drilling operations and flow parameters for an improved bit performance as shown in this paper.

Keywords: air drilling, rate of penetration, temperature, rotary speed

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Authors: Mahdi Motahari, Mojtaba Farzaneh, Armin Parsian Nejad

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The rapidly growing wind industry is highly expressing the need for education and training worldwide, particularly on the system level. Modelling and simulating wind generator system using Matlab-Simulink provides expert help in understanding wind systems engineering and system design. Working under Matlab-Simulink we present the integration of the developed WECS model with public electrical grid. A test of the calculated power and Cp related to the experimental equivalent data, using statistical analysis is performed. The statistical indicators of accuracy show better results of the presented method with RMSE: 21%, 22%, MBE : 0.77%, 0.12 % and MAE :3%, 4%.On the other hand we study its behavior when integrated in whole power system. Three level of wind speeds have been chosen: low with 5m/s as the mean value, medium with 8m/s as the mean value and high speed with 12m/s as the mean value. These allowed predicting and supervising the active power produced by the system, characterized respectively by the middle powers of -150 kW, -250kW and -480 kW which will be injected directly into the public electrical grid and the reactive power, characterized respectively by the middle powers of 60 kW, 180 kW and 320 kW and will be consumed by the wind generator.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, wind generator, fixed speed wind turbine, Matlab-Simulink

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Authors: Feroz A. Shah, M. H. Balkhi

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The study was aimed at to record the distribution and prevalence of various metazoan parasites of fish from hill stream/coldwater fishes of various water bodies of northwest Himalayan region of India. Snow trout (Schizoth oracids) from eutrophic lakes and fresh water streams were collected from January to December 2012, to study the impact of environmental factors on the dynamics and distribution of parasitic infection. The prevalence of helminth parasites was correlated with available physico-chemical parameters including water temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen (DO). The most abundant parasitic infection recorded during this study was Adenoscolex sp. (Cestode parasite) which showed positive correlation with pH (significant p≤0.05) negative correlation with temperature. The Bothriocephalus was having positive correlation with water temperature while as negative correlation was observed with pH and DO. The correlation between Diplozoon sp. and Clinostomum sp. with the physiochemical parameters were non-significant.

Keywords: hill stream fishes, parasites, Western Himalayas, prevelance

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Authors: M. H. Fazel Zarandi, N. Moshahedi

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The hub location problem appears in a variety of applications such as medical centers, firefighting facilities, cargo delivery systems and telecommunication network design. The location of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion at each of them, and, consequently, on the quality of service. This paper presents a fuzzy maximal hub covering location problem (FMCHLP) in which travel costs between any pair of nodes is considered as a fuzzy variable. In order to consider the quality of service, we model each hub as a queue. Arrival rate follows Poisson distribution and service rate follows Erlang distribution. In this paper, at first, a nonlinear mathematical programming model is presented. Then, we convert it to the linear one. We solved the linear model using GAMS software up to 25 nodes and for large sizes due to the complexity of hub covering location problems, and simulated annealing algorithm is developed to solve and test the model. Also, we used possibilistic c-means clustering method in order to find an initial solution.

Keywords: fuzzy modeling, location, possibilistic clustering, queuing

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Authors: M. Fares, S. Mameri, I. Abdlani, K. Negara

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Neutron detectors in general, proportional counters gas filling based isotope 3He in particular are going to be essential for monitoring and control of certain nuclear facilities, monitoring of experimentation around neutron beams and channels nuclear research reactors, radiation protection instruments and other tools multifaceted exploration and testing of materials, etc. This work consists of a measurement campaign features two Proportional Counters 3He (3He: LND252/USA CP, CP prototype: 3He LND/DDM). This is to make a comparison study of a CP 3He LND252/USA reference one hand, and in the context of routine periodic monitoring of the characteristics of the detectors for controlling the operation especially for laboratory prototypes. In this paper, we have described the different characteristics of the detectors and the experimental protocols used. Tables of measures have been developed and the different curves were plotted. The experimental campaign at stake: 2 PC 3He were thus characterized: Their characteristics (sensitivity, energy pulse height distribution spectra, gas amplification etc.) Were identified: 01 PC 3He 1'' Type: prototype DEDIN/DDM, 01 PC 3He 1'' Type: LND252/USA.

Keywords: PC 3He, sensitivity, pulse height distribution spectra, gas amplification

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Authors: Marcin Szlachetka, Mateusz Paszko, Grzegorz Baranski

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This paper discusses the AVL EXCITE Designer simulation research into loads applied to main and crank bearings in the compression-ignition two-stroke engine. There was created a model of engine lubrication system which covers the part of this system related to particular nodes of a bearing system, i.e. a connection of main bearings in an engine block with a crankshaft, a connection of crank pins with a connecting rod. The analysis focused on the load given as a distribution of hydrodynamic oil film pressure corresponding different values of radial internal clearance. There was also studied the impact of gas force on minimal oil film thickness in main and crank bearings versus crankshaft rotational speed. Our model calculates oil film parameters, an oil film pressure distribution, an oil temperature change and dimensions of bearings as well as an oil temperature distribution on surfaces of bearing seats. Accordingly, it was possible to select, for example, a correct clearance for each of the node bearings. The research was performed for several values of engine crankshaft speed ranging from 800 RPM to 4000 RPM. Bearing oil pressure was changed according to engine speed ranging between 1 bar and 5 bar and an oil temperature of 90°C. The main bearing clearances made initially for the calculation and research were: 0.015 mm, 0.025 mm, 0.035 mm, 0.05 mm, 0.1 mm. The oil used for the research corresponded the SAE 5W-40 classification. The paper presents the selected research results referring to certain specific operating points and bearing radial internal clearances. Acknowledgement: This work has been realized in the cooperation with The Construction Office of WSK ‘PZL-KALISZ’ S.A. and is part of Grant Agreement No. POIR.01.02.00-00-0002/15 financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development.

Keywords: crank bearings, diesel engine, oil film, two-stroke engine

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Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

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Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

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Authors: Usriatur Rohma, Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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Nonparametric path analysis is a statistical method that does not rely on the assumption that the curve is known. The purpose of this study is to determine the best nonparametric truncated spline path function between linear and quadratic polynomial degrees with 1, 2, and 3-knot points and to determine the significance of estimating the best nonparametric truncated spline path function in the model of the effect of population migration and agricultural economic growth on rural poverty through the variable unemployment rate using the t-test statistic at the jackknife resampling stage. The data used in this study are secondary data obtained from statistical publications. The results showed that the best model of nonparametric truncated spline path analysis is quadratic polynomial degree with 3-knot points. In addition, the significance of the best-truncated spline nonparametric path function estimation using jackknife resampling shows that all exogenous variables have a significant influence on the endogenous variables.

Keywords: nonparametric path analysis, truncated spline, linear, quadratic, rural poverty, jackknife resampling

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Authors: Rutuja Upadhyay, Anurag Mehra

Abstract:

Solid food foams/cellular foods are colloidal systems which impart structure, texture and mouthfeel to many food products such as bread, cakes, ice-cream, meringues, etc. Their heterogeneous morphology makes the quantification of structure/mechanical relationships complex. The porous structure of solid food foams is highly influenced by the processing conditions, ingredient composition, and their interactions. Sensory perceptions of food foams are dependent on bubble size, shape, orientation, quantity and distribution and determines the texture of foamed foods. The state and structure of the solid matrix control the deformation behavior of the food, such as elasticity/plasticity or fracture, which in turn has an effect on the force-deformation curves. The obvious step in obtaining the relationship between the mechanical properties and the porous structure is to quantify them simultaneously. Here, we attempt to research food foams such as bread dough, baked bread and steamed rice cakes to determine the link between ingredients and the corresponding effect of each of them on the rheology, microstructure, bubble size and texture of the final product. Dynamic rheometry (SAOS), confocal laser scanning microscopy, flatbed scanning, image analysis and texture profile analysis (TPA) has been used to characterize the foods studied. In all the above systems, there was a common observation that when the mean bubble diameter is smaller, the product becomes harder as evidenced by the increase in storage and loss modulus (G′, G″), whereas when the mean bubble diameter is large the product is softer with decrease in moduli values (G′, G″). Also, the bubble size distribution affects texture of foods. It was found that bread doughs with hydrocolloids (xanthan gum, alginate) aid a more uniform bubble size distribution. Bread baking experiments were done to study the rheological changes and mechanisms involved in the structural transition of dough to crumb. Steamed rice cakes with xanthan gum (XG) addition at 0.1% concentration resulted in lower hardness with a narrower pore size distribution and larger mean pore diameter. Thus, control of bubble size could be an important parameter defining final food texture.

Keywords: food foams, rheology, microstructure, texture

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Authors: Manoja Rajalakshmi Aravindakshana, Devleena Ghosha, Chittaranjan Mandala, K. V. Venkateshb, Jit Sarkarc, Partha Chakrabartic, Sujay K. Maity

Abstract:

Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) is the primary test used to diagnose type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a clinical setting. Analysis of OGTT data using the Oral Minimal Model (OMM) along with the rate of appearance of ingested glucose (Ra) is performed to study differences in model parameters for control and T2DM groups. The differentiation of parameters of the model gives insight into the behaviour and physiology of T2DM. The model is also studied to find parameter differences among obese and non-obese T2DM subjects and the sensitive parameters were co-related to the known physiological findings. Sensitivity analysis is performed to understand changes in parameter values with model output and to support the findings, appropriate statistical tests are done. This seems to be the first preliminary application of the OMM with obesity as a distinguishing factor in understanding T2DM from estimated parameters of insulin-glucose model and relating the statistical differences in parameters to diabetes pathophysiology.

Keywords: oral minimal model, OGTT, obese and non-obese T2DM, mathematical modeling, parameter estimation

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Authors: Bernardo Cedano, Ahmed H. Eltom, Bob Hay, Jim Glass, Raga Ahmed

Abstract:

The deployment of smart grid devices such as smart meters and smart switches (SS) supported by a reliable and fast communications system makes automated distribution possible, and thus, provides great benefits to electric power consumers and providers alike. However, more research is needed before the full utility of smart switch data is realized. This paper presents new automated switching techniques using SS within the electric power grid. A concise background of the SS is provided, and operational examples are shown. Organization and presentation of data obtained from SS are shown in the context of the future goal of total automation of the distribution network. The description of application techniques, the examples of success with SS, and the vision outlined in this paper serve to motivate future research pertinent to disturbance analysis automation.

Keywords: disturbance automation, electric power grid, smart grid, smart switches

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Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa

Abstract:

The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.

Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options

Procedia PDF Downloads 423