Search results for: gestation period

Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Fateme Montazeri

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Literary approaches towards the text of the Quran predate the modern period. Suyuti (d.1505)’s encyclopedia of Quranic sciences, Al-Itqan, provides a notable example. In the modern era, the study of the Quranic rhetorics received particular attention in the second half of the twentieth century by Egyptian scholars. Amin Al-Khouli (d. 1966), who might be considered the first to argue for the necessity of applying a literary-rhetorical lens toward the tafseer, Islamic exegesis, and his students championed the literary analysis as the most effective approach to the comprehension of the holy text. Western scholars continued the literary criticism of the Islamic scripture by applying to the Quran similar methodologies used in biblical studies. In the history of the literary examination of the Quran, the scope of the critical methods applied to the Quranic text has been limited. For, the rhetorical approaches to the Quran, in the premodern as well as the modern period, concerned almost exclusively with the lexical layer of the text, leaving the narratological dimensions insufficiently examined. Recent contributions, by Leyla Ozgur Alhassen, for instance, attempt to fill this lacunae. This paper aims at advancing the studies of the Quranic narratives by investigating the application of a literary device whose role in the Quranic stories remains unstudied, that is, “foreshadowing.” This paper shall focus on Chapter 12, “Surah al-Yusuf,” as its case study. Chapter 12, the single chapter that includes the story of Joseph in one piece, contains several instances in which the events of the story are foreshadowed. As shall be discussed, foreshadowing occurs either through a monolog or dialogue whereby one or more of the characters allude to the future happenings or through the manner in which the setting is described. Through a close reading of the text, it will be demonstrated that the usage of the rhetorical tool of foreshadowing meets a dual purpose: on the one hand, foreshadowing prepares the reader/audience for the upcoming events in the plot, and on the other hand, it highlights the psychological dimensions of the characters, their thoughts, intentions, and disposition. In analyzing the story, this study shall draw on psychoanalytical criticism to explore the layers of meanings embedded in the Quranic narrative that are unfolded through foreshadowing.

Keywords: foreshadowing, quranic narrative, literary criticism, surah yusuf

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: M. Reni Sagayaraj, S. Anand Gnana Selvam, R. Reynald Susainathan

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We analyze stochastic integrals associated with a mutation process. To be specific, we describe the cell population process and derive the differential equations for the joint generating functions for the number of mutants and their integrals in generating functions and their applications. We obtain first-order moments of the processes of the two-way mutation process in first-order moment structure of X (t) and Y (t) and the second-order moments of a one-way mutation process. In this paper, we obtain the limiting behaviour of the integrals in limiting distributions of X (t) and Y (t).

Keywords: stochastic integrals, single–server queue model, catastrophes, busy period

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Authors: M. Saba, A. Iaaly, E. Carlier, N. Georges

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This research focuses on assessing the ground water quality of Northern Lebanon affected by saline water intrusion. The chemical, physical and microbiological parameters were collected in various seasons spanning over the period of two years. Results were assessed using Geographic Information System (GIS) due to its visual capabilities in presenting the pollution extent in the studied region. Future projections of the excessive pumping were also simulated using GIS in order to assess the extent of the problem of saline intrusion in the near future.

Keywords: GIS, saline water, quality control, drinkable water quality standards, pumping

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Vivek Saxena, Shreshtha Saxena

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Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is defined as impaired glucose tolerance first recognized during pregnancy. Uncontrolled or untreated GDM is associated with various adverse outcomes to the maternal and fetal health. Overt diabetes mellitus may also develop in such patients. It is universally accepted fact that first and foremost management to treat GDM is dietary control and lifestyle modification even before starting any oral hypoglycemic agent (OHA) or insulin. So, proper dietary management and little changes in the patient’s lifestyle are very effective for reducing her plasma glucose level. Objectives: Proper counselling of the patients and flexibility in their lifestyle and diet can effectively control the plasma glucose level in GDM patients. Methods: Total 60 GDM patients of age > 18 years were taken. We had three counselling sessions with the patient and other members of the family like husband, parents, and in-laws at different intervals, discussed their lifestyle and diet pattern, helped them to eliminate the factors those had an adverse effect on plasma glucose level and promoted them to acquire a healthy lifestyle. We have counselled the patient and her family member separately and then together also. They have explained how increased plasma glucose level can be effectively controlled with the little modification in their diet and routine activities. They were also taught to remain stress-free during their rest of antenatal period. We have excluded the patients from our study who were diabetic before pregnancy and patients with other comorbid illnesses like hypothyroidism and valvular heart disease. Results and conclusions: Results were very rewarding as patients could acquire a lifestyle of their choice. They were happy because extra pill burden was not there. All the 60 patients were normoglycemic in remaining antenatal period, 48 patients were delivered normally and 12 patients underwent cesarean section due to various reasons.Regular counselling of the patients regarding their disease and little alterations in diet and lifestyle controlled the plasma glucose level much effectively. The things were more easier and effective when we included other family members during our counselling session because they play a major role in patient’s day to day activity and influence her life.

Keywords: dietary management, gestational diabetes mellitus, impaired glucose tolerance, oral hypoglycemic agent, pregnancy

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Authors: Beciri Mohamed Walid

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Some architectural conditions required some shapes often lead to an irregular distribution of masses, rigidities and resistances. The main object of the present study consists in estimating the influence of the irregularity both in plan and in elevation which presenting some structures on the dynamic characteristics and his influence on the behavior of this structures. To do this, it is necessary to make apply both dynamic methods proposed by the RPA99 (spectral modal method and method of analysis by accelerogram) on certain similar prototypes and to analyze the parameters measuring the answer of these structures and to proceed to a comparison of the results.

Keywords: structure, irregular, code, seismic, method, force, period

Procedia PDF Downloads 310

Authors: Mario J. Meco-Gutierrez, Francisco Perez-Hidalgo, Juan R. Heredia-Larrubia, Antonio Ruiz-Gonzalez, Francisco Vargas-Merino

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More and more applications power inverters connected to transformers, for example, the connection facilities to the power grid renewable generation. It is well known that the quality of signal power inverters it is not a pure sine. The harmonic content produced negative effects, one of which is the heating of electrical machines and therefore, affects the life of the machines. The decrease of life of transformers can be calculated by Arrhenius or Montsinger equation. Analyzing this expression any (long-term) decrease of a transformer temperature for 6º C - 7º C means doubles its life-expectancy. Methodologies: This work presents the technique of pulse width modulation (PWM) with an injection of harmonic and triangular frequency carrier modulated in frequency. This technique is used to improve the quality of the output voltage signal of the power inverters controlled PWM. The proposed technique increases in the fundamental term and a significant reduction in low order harmonics with the same commutations per time that control sine PWM. To achieve this, the modulating wave is compared to a triangular carrier with variable frequency over the period of the modulator. Therefore, it is, advantageous for the modulating signal to have a large amount of sinusoidal “information” in the areas of greater sampling. A triangular signal with a frequency that varies over the modulator’s period is used as a carrier, for obtaining more samples in the area with the greatest slope. A power inverter controlled by PWM proposed technique is connected to a transformer. Results: In order to verify the derived thermal parameters under different operation conditions, another ambient and loading scenario is involved for a further verification, which was sampled from the same power transformer. Temperatures of different parts of the transformer will be exposed for each PWM control technique analyzed. An assessment of the temperature be done with different techniques PWM control and hence the life of the transformer is calculated for each technique. Conclusion: This paper analyzes such as transformer heating produced by this technique and compared with other forms of PWM control. In it can be seen as a reduction the harmonic content produces less heat transformer and therefore, an increase in the life of the transformer.

Keywords: heating, power-inverter, PWM, transformer

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Authors: Ishaq Kashif, Muhammad Younas, Muhammad Riaz, Mubarak Ali

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Poor feeding management during pre-weaning period is one of the factors resulting in compromised growth of Beetal kids fattened for meat purpose. The main reason for this anomaly may be less milk offered to kids and non-serious efforts for its management. This study was planned to find the most appropriate protein level suiting the age of the weaning while shifting animals to high input feeding system. Total of 42 Beetal male kids having 30 (±10), 60 (±10) and 90 (±10) days of age were selected with 16 in each age group. They were designated as G30, G60 and G90, respectively. The weights of animals were; 8±2 kg (G30), 12±2 kg (G60) and 16±2 kg (G90), respectively. All animals were weaned by introducing the total mix feed gradually and withdrawing the milk during the adjustment period of two weeks. The pelleted starter ration (total mix feed) with three various dietary protein levels designated as R1 (16% CP), R2 (20% CP) and R3 (26% CP) were introduced. The control group was reared on the fodder (Maize). The starter rations were iso-caloric and were offered for six-week duration. All animals were exposed to treatment using two-factor factorial (3×3) plus control treatment arrangement under completely randomized design. The data were collected on average daily feed intake (ADFI), average daily gain (ADG), gain to intake ratio, Klieber ratio (KR), body measurements and blood metabolites of kids. The data was analyzed using aov function of R-software. The statistical analysis showed that starter feed protein levels and age of weaning had significant interaction for ADG (P < 0.001), KR (P < 0.001), ADFI (P < 0.05) and blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.05) while serum creatinine and feed conversion had non-significant interaction. The trend analysis revealed that ADG had significant quadratic interaction (P < 0.05) within protein levels and age of weaning. It was found that animals weaned at 30 or 60 days, on R2 diet had better ADG (46.8 gm/day and 87.06 gm/day, respectively) weaned at 60 days of age. The animals weaned at 90 days had best ADG (127 gm/day) with R1. It is concluded that animal weaned at 30 or 40 days required 20% CP for better growth performance while animal at 90 days showed better performance with 16% CP.

Keywords: average daily gain, starter protein levels, weaning age, gain to intake ratio

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Authors: Wen Cai Ng, Saman Ilankoon, Meng Nan Chong

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The vast increase in global energy demand, coupled with the growing concerns on environmental issues, has triggered the search for cleaner alternative energy sources. In view of this, the photoelectrochemical (PEC) water splitting offers a sustainable hydrogen (H2) production route that only requires solar energy, water, and PEC system operating in an ambient environment. However, the current advancement of PEC water splitting technologies is still far from the commercialization benchmark indicated by the solar-to-H2 (STH) efficiency of at least 10 %. This is largely due to the shortcomings of photoelectrodes used in the PEC system, such as the rapid recombination of photogenerated charge carriers and limited photo-responsiveness in the visible-light spectrum. Silver orthophosphate (Ag3PO4) possesses many desirable intrinsic properties for the fabrication into photoanode used in PEC systems, such as narrow bandgap of 2.4 eV and low valence band (VB) position. Hence, in this study, a highly efficient Ag3PO4-based photoanode was synthesized and characterized. The surface of the Ag foil substrate was directly oxidized to fabricate a top layer composed of {111}-bound Ag3PO4 tetrahedrons layer with a porous structure, forming the dual-layer Ag/Ag3PO4 photoanode. Furthermore, the key synthesis parameters were systematically investigated by varying the concentration ratio of capping agent-to-precursor (R), the volume ratio of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)-to-water, and reaction period. Results showed that the optimized dual-layer Ag/Ag3PO4 photoanode achieved a photocurrent density as high as 4.19 mA/cm2 at 1 V vs. Ag/AgCl for the R-value of 4, the volume ratio of H2O2-to-water of 3:5 and 20 h reaction period. The current work provides a solid foundation for further nanoarchitecture modification strategies on Ag3PO4-based photoanodes for more efficient PEC water splitting applications. This piece of information needs to be backed up by evidence; therefore, you need to provide a reference. As the abstract should be self-contained, all information requiring a reference should be removed. This is a fact known to the area of research, and not necessarily required a reference to support.

Keywords: solar-to-hydrogen fuel, photoelectrochemical water splitting, photoelectrode, silver orthophosphate

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Authors: H. Scholz, P. Kuehne, G. Heckenberger

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Problems during the calving period (December until May) often are results in a high body condition score (BCS) at this time. At the end of the grazing period (frequently after early weaning), however, an increase of BCS can often be observed under German conditions. In the last eight weeks before calving, the body condition should be reduced or at least not increased. Rations with a higher amount of crude fiber can be used (rations with straw or late mowed grass silage). Fermentative digestion of fiber is slow and incomplete; that’s why the fermentative process in the rumen can be reduced over a long feeding time. Viewed in this context, feed intake of suckler cows (8 weeks before calving) in different rations and fermentation in the rumen should be checked by taking rumen fluid. Eight suckler cows (Charolais) were feeding a Total Mixed Ration (TMR) in the last eight weeks before calving and grass silage after calving. By the addition of straw (30 % [TMR1] vs. 60 % [TMR2] of dry matter) was varied the amount of crude fiber in the TMR (grass silage, straw, mineral) before calving. After calving of the cow's grass, silage [GS] was fed ad libitum, and the last measurement of rumen fluid took place on the pasture [PS]. Rumen fluid, plasma, body weight, and backfat thickness were collected. Rumen fluid pH was assessed using an electronic pH meter. Volatile fatty acids (VFA), sedimentation, methylene-blue, and amount of infusorians were measured. From these 4 parameters, an “index of rumen fermentation” [IRF] in the rumen was formed. Fixed effects of treatment (TMR1, TMR2, GS, and PS) and a number of lactations (3-7 lactations) were analyzed by ANOVA using SPSS Version 25.0 (significant by p ≤ 5 %). Rumen fluid pH was significantly influenced by variants (TMR 1 by 6.6; TMR 2 by 6.9; GS by 6.6 and PS by 6.9) but was not affected by other effects. The IRF showed disturbed fermentation in the rumen by feeding the TMR 1+2 with a high amount of crude fiber (Score: > 10.0 points) and a very good environment for fermentation during grazing the pasture (Score: 6.9 points). Furthermore, significant differences were found for VFA, methylene blue, and the number of infusorians. The use of rations with a high amount of crude fiber from weaning to calving may cause deviations from undisturbed fermentation in the rumen and adversely affect the utilization of the feed in the rumen.

Keywords: rumen fermentation, suckler cow, digestibility organic matter, crude fiber

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Authors: Aklilu Getahun Sulito

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Land Use and Land Cover change dynamics is a result of complex interactions betweenseveral bio- physical and socio-economic conditions. The impacts of the landcoverchange on stream flow and sediment yield were analyzed statistically usingthehydrological model, SWAT. Genale Dawa Dam III watershed is highly af ectedbydeforestation, over grazing, and agricultural land expansion. This study was aimedusingSWAT model for the assessment of impacts of land use land cover change on sediment yield, evaluating stream flow on wet &dry seasons and spatial distribution sediment yieldfrom sub-basins of the Genale Dawa Dam III watershed. Land use land cover maps(LULC) of 2000, 2008 and 2016 were used with same corresponding climate data. During the study period most parts of the forest, dense forest evergreen and grass landchanged to cultivated land. The cultivated land increased by 26.2%but forest land, forest evergreen lands and grass lands decreased by 21.33%, 11.59 % and 7.28 %respectively, following that the mean annual sediment yield of watershed increased by 7.37ton/haover16 years period (2000 – 2016). The analysis of stream flow for wet and dry seasonsshowed that the steam flow increased by 25.5% during wet season, but decreasedby29.6% in the dry season. The result an average annual spatial distribution of sediment yield increased by 7.73ton/ha yr -1 from (2000_2016). The calibration results for bothstream flow and sediment yield showed good agreement between observed and simulateddata with the coef icient of determination of 0.87 and 0.84, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciencyequality to 0.83 and 0.78 and percentage bias of -7.39% and -10.90%respectively. Andthe result for validation for both stream flow and sediment showed good result withCoef icient of determination equality to 0.83 and 0.80, Nash-Sutclif e ef iciency of 0.78and 0.75 and percentage bias of 7.09% and 3.95%. The result obtained fromthe model based on the above method was the mean annual sediment load at Genale DawaDamIIIwatershed increase from 2000 to 2016 for the reason that of the land uses change. Sotouse the Genale Dawa Dam III the land use management practices are neededinthefuture to prevent further increase of sediment yield of the watershed.

Keywords: Genale Dawa Dam III watershed, land use land cover change, SWAT, spatial distribution, sediment yield, stream flow

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Authors: Mario Gómez, José Carlos Rodríguez

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The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been an important issue in the economic literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root tests and causality test are applied. The results show that the series are stationary in levels and that there is causality running from economic growth to energy consumption. The energy conservation policies have little or no impact on economic growth in México.

Keywords: causality, economic growth, energy consumption, Mexico

Procedia PDF Downloads 858

Authors: Shuk Ting Kinnia Yau

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As China has become more and more influential in the global and geo-political arena, mutual understanding between Japan and China has also become a topic of paramount importance. There have always been tensions between the two countries, but unfortunately, each country tends to blame the other for fanning emotions. This research will investigate portrayals of China and the Chinese people in Japanese media such as newspapers, TV news, TV drama, and cinema over this period, focusing on media sources that have particularly wide viewership or readership. By doing so, it attempts to detect any general trends in the positive or negative character of such portrayals and to see if they correlate with the results of surveys of attitudes among the general population. To the degree that correlations may be found, the question arises as to whether the media portrayals are a reflection of societal attitudes towards the Chinese, on one hand, or may be playing a role in promoting such attitudes, on the other. The relationship here is, without doubt, more complex than a simple one-way relationship of cause and effect, but indications of some direction of causality may be suggested by trends in one occurring before or after the other. Evidence will also be sought of possible longer-term trends in media portrayals of China and the Chinese people in Japan during the post-2012 period, i.e., Abe Shinzo’s second term as prime minister, in comparison to earlier periods. Perceptions of Japan’s view of China and the Chinese, both inside and outside the scholarly world, tend to be oversimplified and are often incomprehensive. This research calls attention to the role played by the media in promoting or de-promoting Sino-Japanese relations. By analyzing the nature and background of images of China and the Chinese people presented in the Japanese media, especially under the new Abe Regime, this research seeks to promote a more balanced and comprehensive understanding of attitudes in Japanese society towards its gigantic neighbor. Scholars have seen the increasingly fragile Sino-Japanese relationship as inseparable from the real-world political conflicts that have become more frequent in recent years and have sought to draw a correlation between the two. The influence of the media, however, remains a mostly under-explored domain in the academic world. Against this background, this research aims to provide an enriched scholarly understanding of Japan’s perception of China by investigating to what extent such perception can be seen to be affected by subjective or selective forms of presentation of China found in the Japanese media, or vice versa.

Keywords: Abe Shinzo, China, Japan, media

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Authors: Narimen Rdhaounia Mohamed Kouni

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Our aim in this paper is to identify the origins of inflation in Tunisia on the period from 1988 to 2018. In order to estimate the model, an ARDL methodology is used. We studied also the effect of informal economy on inflation. Indeed, we estimated the size of the informal economy in Tunisia based on Gutmann method. The results showed that there are three main origins of inflation. In fact, the first origin is the fiscal policy adopted by Tunisia, particularly after revolution. The second origin is the increase of monetary variables. Finally, informal economy played an important role in inflation.

Keywords: inflation, consumer price index, informal, gutmann method, ARDL model

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Authors: S. Kershaw, P. J. Barry, K. Webb

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Background: Cystic Fibrosis (CF) is a chronic lung disease where patients have chronic lung infection punctuated by acute exacerbations that require intermittent intravenous (IV) antibiotics during their lives. With time, peripheral venous access can become difficult and limited. Accessing these veins can become arduous, traumatic, painful and unworkable. A permanent intravascular access device or Port is a small device that is inserted into the central venous system that allows the delivery of medicine eliminating the need for peripheral venous access. Ports represent a convenient and efficient method when venous access is required on a permanent basis however they are also associated with significant vascular complications. Superior Vena Cava Obstruction (SVCO) is a rare but significant vascular complication of ports in this setting. Objective: We aimed to look at a single CF centre’s experience of port-related SVCO over a thirty year period. Methods: Retrospective data was extracted using patient’s notes, electronic radiological reports and local databases over a period in excess of 30 years from 1982 to 2014. Results: 13 patients were identified with SVCO as a result of their port. 11 patients had CF (9 female, 2 male), one male patient had Primary Ciliary Dyskinesia and one female patient had severe Asthma. The mean port function was 1532 days (range 110 – 4049) and the mean age at SVCO was 24 years (range 11.1 to 36.5 years). The most common symptoms were facial oedema (n=8, 61.5%) and dilated veins (n=6, 46.2%). 7 patients had their Ports removed after SVCO. 6 patients underwent attempted stenting (46.2%) and 6 did not. 4 out of the 6 who underwent stenting required/had re-intervention. 3 of the 6 patients who underwent stenting had symptom resolution, however, 4 of the 6 patients who were not stented had symptom resolution also. Symptom resolution was not guaranteed with stenting and required re-intervention in two-thirds. Conclusion: This case series represents the experience of one of the longest established CF units in the UK and represents the largest cohort ever reported in the literature.

Keywords: ports, Superior Vena Cava Obstruction, cystic fibrosis, access devices

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Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

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In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Guanqun Shi, Xueqing Zhang

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The frequent occurrence of failures in PPP projects which caused great loss has raised attention from the government as well as the concessionaire. PPPs are complex arrangements for its long operation period and multiple players. Many types of risks in PPP projects may cause the project fail. The insurance is an important tool to transfer the risks. Through a comparison and analysis of international government PPP guidelines and contracts as well as the case studies worldwide, we have identified eight main insurance principles, discussed thirteen insurance types in different stages. An overall procedure would be established to improve the practices in PPP projects.

Keywords: public private partnerships, insurance, contract, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Sugam Kale, Arif Uzair Bin Mohammed Roslan, Cindy Lee, Syed Beevee Mohammed Ismail

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Preemptive analgesia is an established concept in the modern practice of anaesthesia. To be most effective, it is best instituted earlier than the surgical stimulus and should last beyond the offset of surgically induced pain till healing is complete. Whereas the start of afferent pain blockade with regional anaesthesia is common, its effect often falls short to cover the entire period of pain impulses making their way to CNS in the post-operative period. We tried to use a combination of two regional anaesthetic techniques used sequentially to overcome this handicap. Madam S., a 56 year old lady, was scheduled for elective surgery for pancreatic cancer. She underwent laparotomy and distal pancreatectomy, splenectomy, bilateral salpingo oophorectomy, and sigmoid colectomy. Surgery was expected to be extensive, and it was presumed that the standard pain relief with PCA with opiates and oral analgesics would not be adequate. After counselling the patient pre-operative about the technique of regional anaesthesia techniques, including epidural catheterization and rectus sheath catheter placement, their benefits, and potential complications, informed consent was obtained. Epidural catheter was placed awake, and general anaesthesia was then induced. Epidural infusion of local anaesthetics was started prior to surgical incision and was continued till 60 hours into the postoperative period. Before skin closure, the surgeons inserted commercially available rectus sheath catheters bilaterally along the midline incision used for laparotomy. After 46 hours post-op, local anaesthetic infusion via these was started as bridging while the epidural infusion rate was tapered off. The epidural catheter was removed at 75 hours. Elastomeric pumps were used to provide local anaesthetic infusion with the ability to vary infusion rates. Acute pain service followed up the patient’s vital signs and effectiveness of pain relief twice daily or more frequently as required. Rectus sheath catheters were removed 137 hours post-op. The patient had good post-op analgesia with the minimal additional analgesic requirement. For the most part, the visual analog score (VAS) for pain remained at 1-3 on a scale of 1 to 10. Haemodynamics remained stable, and surgical recovery was as expected. Minimal opiate requirement after an extensive laparotomy also translates to the early return of intestinal motility. Our experience was encouraging, and we are hoping to extend this combination of two regional anaesthetic techniques to patients undergoing similar surgeries. Epidural analgesia is denser and offers excellent pain relief for both visceral and somatic pain in the first few days after surgery. As the pain intensity grows weaker, rectus sheath block and oral analgesics provide almost the same degree of pain relief after the epidural catheter is removed. We discovered that the background infusion of local anaesthetic down the rectus sheath catherter largely reduced the requirement for other classes of analgesics. We aim to study this further with a larger patient cohort and hope that it may become an established clinical practice that benefits patients everywhere.

Keywords: rectus sheath, epidural infusion, post operative analgesia, elastomeric

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Authors: Tarek Ninouh, Ahmed Rouili

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The Roman paths or roads offer a very interesting archaeological material, because they allow us to understand the history of human settlement and are also factors that increase territorial identity. Roman roads are one of the hallmarks of the Roman empire, which extends to North Africa. The objective of this investigation is to attract the attention of researchers to the importance of Roman roads and paths, which are found in Algeria, according to the quality of the materials and techniques used in this period of our history, and to encourage other decision makers to protect and enhance these routes because the current urbanization, intensive agricultural practices, or simply forgotten, decreases the sustainability of this important historical heritage.

Keywords: Roman paths, quality of materials, property, valuation

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Authors: Shahram Keshavarzi

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Today, getting good service, having a good time, and leaving the company with good feelings are importanttforbothcustomers and businesses. It has been observed that when customersareexposedtopleasantsmells, their visit times increase by 26%, and theyvisittheaislesfor 3 times longer. Byusingtheeffect of scents on people, it is toensurethatcustomersshopmore, benefit from the service and be satisfied. Intoday'sresearch, visual memory can be 40% effective after a period of 4 months, whileolfactorymemory is 60% moreeffectiveevenafter 1 year. The purpose of the research is thehiddenandeffectivepower of skepticism in the behavior of consumersandtheeffectivestrategy of modern marketing. Special scentsdirectlyaffecttheincrease in sales by influencing the customer's-decision mechanism in purchasing products.

Keywords: modern marketing strategy, scent, scent marketing, consumer behavior

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Authors: S. Ithai, A. Oloo

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The emergence of globalization has cultivated an international consensus that without economic development; it is very unlikely that a country may realize social or political development. It is equally important to note that the economic effect on social development automatically influence the country healthcare services as healthcare systems are improved and adopted. For decades and before 1980's, the colonial and the Governments of Kenya had pursued a goal to provide free healthcare services to its citizen with minimal success; but as population increased, this endeavor became almost a mirage. The challenge called for a change of strategy with introduction of cost sharing which also could not guarantee sustainability of healthcare services in the country due to increased number of poor people and poverty. An involvement of multisectral approach to provision of health individual, collaboration and adoption of all dimensions through globalization provides a ray of hope to not only economic, political and social development but also guaranteed equitable and reliable healthcare systems in Kenya and specifically referral healthcare services at KNH. With the advent of globalization, KNH has made positive strides that have guaranteed patients with reliable healthcare services. These include increased donor funding, collaboration levels, training and research as well as enhanced the hospital relations with international partners. During this period, the hospital has increased number of local doctors and nurses, enhanced transfer of skills, innovations and technologies which are driving forces to quality and efficient healthcare services. The period has also brought in challenges for the hospital which include increased competition, attraction of qualified nurses and doctors to international are some the issues that have made the hospital to spend more resources in research and development in order to stay afloat. This paper reveals the link between globalization and healthcare and its influence on institution policy choice. However, the process is not expected to take place automatically without institutional initiatives if KNH is to reap the benefits of globalization. KNH need to make use of the existing infrastructure, human resources and donor confidence, the opportunities that are indeed important in propelling KNH toward Vision 2030 and achieving the desired Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Keywords: globalization, Kenyatta National Hospital, native, healthcare

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Authors: Mehmet Mucuk, Ayşen Edirneligil

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Budget and current account deficits are main problems for all countries. There are different approaches about the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit. While Keynesian view accepts that there is a casual link between these variables, Ricardian equivalence hypothesis rejects it. The aim of this study is to analyze the validity of Keynesian view for Turkish Economy using VAR analysis with the monthly data in the period of 2006-2014. In this context, it will be used Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse-Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests.

Keywords: budget deficit, current account deficit, Turkish economy, twin deficits

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Authors: Ochuko K. Overen, Edson L. Meyer

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Uncontrolled heat transfer between the inner and outer space of low-cost housings through the thermal envelope result in indoor thermal discomfort. As a result, an excessive amount of energy is consumed for space heating and cooling. Thermo-optical properties are the ability of paints to reduce the rate of heat transfer through the thermal envelope. The aim of this study is to analyze the thermal performance of a low-cost house with its walls inner surface coated with transparent infrared reflective paint. The thermo-optical properties of the paint were analyzed using Scanning Electron Microscopy/ Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (SEM/EDX), Fourier Transform Infra-Red (FTIR) and thermal photographic technique. Meteorological indoor and ambient parameters such as; air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed and direction of a low-cost house in Golf-course settlement, South Africa were monitored. The monitoring period covers both winter and summer period before and after coating. The thermal performance of the coated walls was evaluated using time lag and decrement factor. The SEM image shows that the coat is transparent to light. The presence of Al as Al2O and other elements were revealed by the EDX spectrum. Before coating, the average decrement factor of the walls in summer was found to be 0.773 with a corresponding time lag of 1.3 hours. In winter, the average decrement factor and corresponding time lag were 0.467 and 1.6 hours, respectively. After coating, the average decrement factor and corresponding time lag were 0.533 and 2.3 hour, respectively in summer. In winter, an average decrement factor of 1.120 and corresponding time lag of 3 hours was observed. The findings show that the performance of the coats is influenced by the seasons. With a 74% reduction in decrement factor and 1.4 time lag increase in winter, it implies that the coatings have more ability to retain heat within the inner space of the house than preventing heat flow into the house. In conclusion, the results have shown that transparent infrared reflective paint has the ability to reduce the propagation of heat flux through building walls. Hence, it can serve as a remedy to the poor thermal performance of low-cost housings in South Africa.

Keywords: energy efficiency, decrement factor, low-cost housing, paints, rural development, thermal comfort, time lag

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Authors: Peter Park, Alfonso Ayala, Douglas Saeks, Jordan Miller, Carmen Flores, Karen Nelson

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Introduction Hip fractures account for more than 300,000 hospital admissions every year. Many present as fragility fractures in geriatric patients with multiple medical comorbidities. Standardized protocols for the multidisciplinary management of this patient population have been shown to improve patient outcomes. A hip fracture protocol was implemented at a Level I Trauma center with a focus on pre-operative medical optimization and early surgical care. This study evaluates the efficacy of that protocol, including the early transition period. Methods A retrospective review was performed of all patients ages 60 and older with isolated hip fractures who were managed surgically between 2020 and 2022. This included patients 1 year prior and 1 year following the implementation of a hip fracture protocol at a Level I Trauma center. Results 530 patients were identified: 249 patients were treated before, and 281 patients were treated after the protocol was instituted. There was no difference in mean age (p=0.35), gender (p=0.3), or Charlson Comorbidity Index (p=0.38) between the cohorts. Following the implementation of the protocol, there were observed increases in time to surgery (27.5h vs. 33.8h, p=0.01), hospital length of stay (6.3d vs. 9.7d, p<0.001), and ED LOS (5.1h vs. 6.2h, p<0.001). There were no differences in in-hospital mortality (2.01% pre vs. 3.20% post, p=0.39) and complication rates (25% pre vs 26% post, p=0.76). A trend towards improved outcomes was seen after the early transition period but failed to yield statistical significance. Conclusion Early medical management and surgical intervention are key determining factors affecting outcomes following fragility hip fractures. The implementation of a hip fracture protocol at this institution has not yet significantly affected these parameters. This could in part be due to the restrictions placed at this institution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, the time to OR pre-and post-implementation was quicker than figures reported elsewhere in literature. Further longitudinal data will be collected to determine the final influence of this protocol. Significance/Clinical Relevance Given the increasing number of elderly people and the high morbidity and mortality associated with hip fractures in this population finding cost effective ways to improve outcomes in the management of these injuries has the potential to have enormous positive impact for both patients and hospital systems.

Keywords: hip fracture, geriatric, treatment algorithm, preoperative optimization

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Authors: Jamboor K. Vishwanatha

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Among the potent anti-cancer agents, curcumin has been found to be very efficacious against various cancer cells. Despite multiple medicinal benefits of curcumin, poor water solubility, poor physiochemical properties and low bioavailability continue to pose major challenges in developing a formulation for clinical efficacy. To improve its potential application in the clinical area, we formulated poly lactic-co-glycolic acid (PLGA) nanoparticles. The PLGA nanoparticles were formulated using solid-oil/water emulsion solvent evaporation method and then characterized for percent yield, encapsulation efficiency, surface morphology, particle size, drug distribution within nanoparticles and drug polymer interaction. Our studies showed the successful formation of smooth and spherical curcumin loaded PLGA nanoparticles with a high percent yield of about 92.01±0.13% and an encapsulation efficiency of 90.88±0.14%. The mean particle size of the nanoparticles was found to be 145nm. The in vitro drug release profile showed 55-60% drug release from the nanoparticles over a period of 24 hours with continued sustained release over a period of 8 days. Exposure to curcumin loaded nanoparticles resulted in reduced cell viability of cancer cells compared to normal cells. We used a novel non-covalent insertion of a homo-bifunctional spacer for targeted delivery of curcumin to various cancer cells. Functionalized nanoparticles for antibody/targeting agent conjugation was prepared using a cross-linking ligand, bis(sulfosuccinimidyl) suberate (BS3), which has reactive carboxyl group to conjugate efficiently to the primary amino groups of the targeting agents. In our studies, we demonstrated successful conjugation of antibodies, Annexin A2 or prostate specific membrane antigen (PSMA), to curcumin loaded PLGA nanoparticles for targeting to prostate and breast cancer cells. The percent antibody attachment to PLGA nanoparticles was found to be 92.8%. Efficient intra-cellular uptake of the targeted nanoparticles was observed in the cancer cells. These results have emphasized the potential of our multifunctional curcumin nanoparticles to improve the clinical efficacy of curcumin therapy in patients with cancer.

Keywords: polymeric nanoparticles, cancer therapy, sustained release, curcumin

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Authors: Renu Saini, Deepak Agrawal

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Background: Patients with head and spinal cord injury frequently have deranged coagulation profiles and require blood products transfusion perioperatively. Thromboelastography (TEG) is a ‘bedside’ global test of coagulation which may have role in deciding the need of transfusion in such patients. Aim: To assess the usefulness of TEG in department of neurosurgery in decreasing transfusion rates and coagulation-related mortality in traumatic head and spinal cord injury. Method and Methodology: A retrospective comparative study was carried out in the department of neurosurgery over a period of 1 year. There are two groups in this study. ‘Control’ group constitutes the patients in whom data was collected over 6 months (1/6/2009-31/12/2009) prior to installation of TEG machine. ‘Test’ group includes patients in whom data was collected over 6months (1/1/2013-30/6/2013) post TEG installation. Total no. of platelet, FFP, and cryoprecipitate transfusions were noted in both groups along with in hospital mortality and length of stay. Result: Both groups were matched in age and sex of patients, number of head and spinal cord injury cases, number of patients with thrombocytopenia and number of patients who underwent operation. Total 178 patients (135 head injury and 43 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted in neurosurgery department during time period June 2009 to December 2009 i.e. prior to TEG installation and after TEG installation a total of 243 patients(197 head injury and 46 spinal cord injury patents) were admitted. After TEG introduction platelet transfusion significantly reduced (p=0.000) compare to control group (67 units to 34 units). Mortality rate was found significantly reduced after installation (77 patients to 57 patients, P=0.000). Length of stay was reduced significantly (Prior installation 1-211days and after installation 1-115days, p=0.02). Conclusion: Bedside TEG can dramatically reduce platelet transfusion components requirement in department of neurosurgery. TEG also lead to a drastic decrease in mortality rate and length of stay in patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries. We recommend its use as a standard of care in the patients with traumatic head and spinal cord injuries.

Keywords: blood component transfusion, mortality, neurosurgery ICU, thromboelastography

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Authors: Sui Yan Wong, Keat Ping Yeoh, Chi Wai Hui

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In this study, supercritical steam is introduced to Combined Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) in an attempt to further optimize energy recovery. Subcritical steam is commonly used in the CCPP, operating at maximum pressures around 150-160 bar. Supercritical steam is an alternative to increase heat recovery during vaporization period of water. The idea of improvement using supercritical steam is further examined with the use of exergy, pinch analysis and Aspen Plus simulation.

Keywords: exergy, pinch, combined cycle power plant, supercritical steam

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Authors: Ayanda Ndokwana, Stanley Fore

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Industrial prosperity and rapid expansion of human population in South Africa over the past two decades, have increased the use of conventional fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal and natural gas to meet the country’s energy demands. However, the inevitable depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global volatile oil price and large carbon footprint are some of the crucial reasons the South African Government needs to make a considerable investment in the development of the biofuel industry. In South Africa, this industry is still at the introductory stage with no large scale manufacturing plant that has been commissioned yet. Bioethanol is a potential replacement of gasoline which is a fossil fuel that is used in motor vehicles. Using bioethanol for the transport sector as a source of fuel will help Government to save heavy foreign exchange incurred during importation of oil and create many job opportunities in rural farming. In 2007, the South African Government developed the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy in an effort to make provision for support and attract investment in bioethanol production. However, capital investment in the production of bioethanol on a large scale, depends on the sound economic assessment of the available manufacturing technologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of an advanced bioethanol manufacturing technology which uses maize as a feedstock in South Africa. The impact of fiber or bran fractionation in this technology causes it to possess a number of merits such as energy efficiency, low capital expenditure, and profitability compared to a conventional dry-mill bioethanol technology. Quantitative techniques will be used to collect and analyze numerical data from suitable organisations in South Africa. The dependence of three profitability indicators such as the Discounted Payback Period (DPP), Net Present Value (NPV) and Return On Investment (ROI) on plant capacity will be evaluated. Profitability analysis will be done on the following plant capacities: 100 000 ton/year, 150 000 ton/year and 200 000 ton/year. The plant capacity with the shortest Discounted Payback Period, positive Net Present Value and highest Return On Investment implies that a further consideration in terms of capital investment is warranted.

Keywords: bioethanol, economic evaluation, maize, profitability indicators

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Authors: Peng Liu

Abstract:

Deep Q networks (DQNs) represent a significant advancement in reinforcement learning, utilizing neural networks to approximate the optimal Q-value for guiding sequential decision processes. This paper presents a comprehensive introduction to reinforcement learning principles, delves into the mechanics of DQNs, and explores its application in portfolio optimization. By evaluating the performance of DQNs against traditional benchmark portfolios, we demonstrate its potential to enhance investment strategies. Our results underscore the advantages of DQNs in dynamically adjusting asset allocations, offering a robust portfolio management framework.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning, deep Q networks, portfolio optimization, multi-period optimization

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