Search results for: CVD risk factors

Authors: Rahele Hasani, Iraj Mehregan, Kambiz Larijani, Taher Nejadsattari, Romain Scalone

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Essential oils of Heracleum persicum (Apiaceae) have been widely used from many years ago, but the difference of its properties among different populations have not been identified up to now. Hydrodistilation Clevenger type was used to obtaining the fruit essential oils of four populations of H. persicum from different localities in Iran, then they were characterized by GC-FID and GC-MS analyses. Some ecological factors were also measured. The oils of four populations were compared to determine the similarities and differences and the relationships between these factors and ecological factors. Based on the result, 18-32 different components were identified in four populations, while the percentage of the main components was higher in population with lower number of components. According to the statistical analyses of chemical components and ecological factors, it can be concluded that some ecological factors such as altitude, less humidity, high difference between day and night temperature and salty soil would lead to lower number of components in essential oil, whereas they consist the higher percentage.

Keywords: Chemotaxonomy, Persian hogweed, Ecological factors, Apiaceae.

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Authors: R. H. Fattepur, Sameer R. Fattepur, D. K. Sreekantha

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Dairy Farming is one of the key industries in India. India is the leading producer and also the consumer of milk, milk-based products in the world. In this paper, we have attempted to the replace the human expert system and to develop an artificial expert system prototype to increase the speed and accuracy of decision making dairy farming credit risk evaluation. Fuzzy logic is used for dealing with uncertainty, vague and acquired knowledge, fuzzy rule base method is used for representing this knowledge for building an effective expert system.

Keywords: expert system, fuzzy logic, knowledge base, dairy farming, credit risk

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Authors: Asma Naseer Cheema, Attya Bhatti, Jabar Ali, John Peter

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Background: High cholesterol levels, endothelial dysfunction, inefficient coagulation cascade and hyper inflammatory response all are the basis of coronary artery disease (CAD). Several studies are carried out to see the genetic influence of these factors on disease outcome. Objective: The objective of our study was to see the association of 10 putative loci with coronary artery disease in our population. Materials & Methods: We screened our population for 10 putative loci of CAD showing significant association (p < 5x10-8) with candidate genes (regulating the cholesterol metabolism, endothelial function, coagulation cascade and inflammatory response of body). Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium in cases and controls s were estimated separately. Approximately 5-10 ng of dried DNA in 384 well plate format was used to genotype each sample on the Sequenom iPLEX assay at University of Pittsburgh Genomics and Proteomics Core Laboratories. It was built on single-base primer extension with the MALDI-TOF MS detection possessing high sensitivity and specificity. The SNPs were genotyped through Taqman assay. Hardy Weinberg test was applied. The 10 SNPs were selected as genetic markers for this study (rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650). Results: Mean age of the patient was 52 ± 11 years. Blood pressure and positive family history was found a significant risk factor for CAD. None of the selected SNPs showed significant association with coronary artery disease in our population (p>0.05). Conclusion: rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650 are not significant genetic markers for CAD in our population.

Keywords: CAD, genetic markers, loci, risk factors

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Authors: Paras Agarwal

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Background: Initially believed to be rare, metastases to the eye are the most common ocular malignancy. The choroid’s high perfusion rate not only makes it the most susceptible ocular site for tumour seeding, but also promotes its growth. The cancers most frequently responsible for choroidal metastases originate from the breast and lung, although a significant proportion have unidentified primaries at the time of presentation. Case Presentation: This case report describes a 34 year old female presenting to the ophthalmology department with a one month history of painless distorted vision. On fundus examination, she was noted to have bilateral choroidal lesionsand subsequently underwent a comprehensive diagnostic work-up. The patient was diagnosed with metastatic pulmonary adenocarcinoma, despite lacking conventional risk factors. As she was found to have a mutation in EGFR, the patient was commenced on tyrosine-kinase inhibition with afatinib. The choroidal lesions regressed with a significant improvement in visual acuity and a dramatic anatomical reduction of the choroidal masses. Conclusions: Our case demonstrates the importance of considering metastases as a differential diagnosis for choroidal lesions. Appropriate and thorough history-taking, examination and investigations may be required in order to deduce the underlying cause. Our case is unusual in view of the choroidal lesion being the primary manifestation of metastatic lung cancer in a young patient with no known risk factors. Early recognition of choroidal metastases is important as it is often the first sign of tumour dissemination and will prompt earlier treatment with systemic medications such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy or hormonal therapy. Our case report also demonstrates the efficacy of afatinib for the treatment of choroidal metastases, with morphological and functional improvements observed with regard to the choroidal metastatic tumour.

Keywords: choroidal neoplasm, choroidal naevus, pulmonary adenocarcinoma, metastases, lung cancer

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Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

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Authors: Hamed Hedayatnia, Nathan Van Den Bossche

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Understanding the ways in which climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the conservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like freeze-thaw cycles and wind erosion is also a key parameter when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on material degradation criteria with the focus on brick masonry walls in Timurid heritage, located in Iran, was studied. The Timurids were the final great dynasty to emerge from the Central Asian steppe. Through their patronage, the eastern Islamic world in northwestern of Iran, especially in Mashhad and Herat, became a prominent cultural center. Goharshad Mosque is a mosque in Mashhad of the Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran. It was built by order of Empress Goharshad, the wife of Shah Rukh of the Timurid dynasty in 1418 CE. Choosing an appropriate regional climate model was the first step. The outputs of two different climate model: the 'ALARO-0' and 'REMO,' were analyzed to find out which model is more adopted to the area. For validating the quality of the models, a comparison between model data and observations was done in 4 different climate zones in Iran for a period of 30 years. The impacts of the projected climate change were evaluated until 2100. To determine the material specification of Timurid bricks, standard brick samples from a Timurid mosque were studied. Determination of water absorption coefficient, defining the diffusion properties and determination of real density, and total porosity tests were performed to characterize the specifications of brick masonry walls, which is needed for running HAM-simulations. Results from the analysis showed that the threatening factors in each climate zone are almost different, but the most effective factor around Iran is the extreme temperature increase and erosion. In the north-western region of Iran, one of the key factors is wind erosion. In the north, rainfall erosion and mold growth risk are the key factors. In the north-eastern part, in which our case study is located, the important parameter is wind erosion.

Keywords: brick, climate change, degradation criteria, heritage, Timurid period

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Authors: Etienne Sugewe

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Purpose: The establishment of a positive HIV serologic status of an individual could have been an inhibitory factor to prevent risk behaviours in people living with HIV/AIDS. We conducted a cross-sectional study in order to assess the prevalence and predictors of risk behaviors among HIV-positive people in Douala-Cameroon. Methods: We used pre-checked questionnaires to systematically collect data from four HIV treatment centers in Douala. This was done to some of them during the distribution of drugs and to others during their classical rendezvous between the months of May and July 2012. The Chi-Square and Student t-test were used for cross tabulation of variables; multiple regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of risky sexual behaviours. Results: Of the 330 persons interviewed, sixty percent were reported to have had sexual intercourse after the diagnosis of HIV. We obtained 37% HIV-positive partners, and 63% had HIV- negative partners or partners with unknown status. Among our patients, 45% of the subjects with regular partners reported to have had anal or vaginal sex. Those whose score on the knowledge about HIV/AIDS was < 50% and where 90% of them were less susceptible to the condom during intercourse (p: 0.01). About 74% of patients on ARV were less susceptible to the use of condoms during sexual intercourse (p: 0.03). Conclusion: Risk sexual behaviours among people living with HIV/AIDS are common and potentially expose their partners. For HIV-positive partners, these habits pose a real risk of suprainfection by other strains of HIV. The need to increase awareness and education among people living with HIV is therefore highly recommended.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, behaviours, HIV positive, Douala, 2012

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Authors: Naseem Fatima, A. N. Srivastava, Tasleem Raza, Vijay Kumar

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Introduction: Carcinoma gallbladder is third most common gastrointestinal lethal disease with the highest incidence and mortality rate among women in Northern India. Scientists have found several risk factors that make a person more likely to develop gallbladder cancer; among these risk factors, deregulation of miRNAs has been demonstrated to be one of the most crucial factors. The changes in the expression of specific miRNA genes result in the control of inflammation, cell cycle regulation, stress response, proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis and invasion thus mediate the process in tumorgenesis. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of MiRNA-335 and may as a molecular marker in early detection of gallbladder cancer in suspected cases. Material and Methods: A total of 20 consecutive patients with gallbladder cancer aged between 30-75 years were registered for the study. Total RNA was extracted from tissue by using the mirVANA MiRNA isolation Kit according to the manufacturer’s protocol. The MiRNA- 335 and U6 snRNA-specific cDNA were reverse-transcribed from total RNA using Taqman microRNA reverse-transcription kit according to the manufacturer’s protocol. TaqMan MiRNA probes hsa-miR-335 and Taqman Master Mix without AmpEase UNG, Individual real-time PCR assays were performed in a 20 μL reaction volume on a Real-Time PCR system (Applied Biosystems StepOnePlus™) to detect MiRNA-335 expression in tissue. Relative quantification of target MiRNA expression was evaluated using the comparative cycle threshold (CT) method. The correlation was done in between cycle threshold (CT Value) of target MiRNA in gallbladder cancer with respect to non-cancerous Cholelithiasis gallbladder. Each sample was examined in triplicate. The Newman-Keuls Multiple Comparison Test was used to determine the expression of miR-335. Results: MiRNA335 was found to be significantly downregulated in the gallbladder cancer tissue (P<0.001), when compared with non-cancerous Cholelithiasis gallbladder cases. Out of 20 cases, 75% showed reduced expression of MiRNA335, were at last stage of disease with low overall survival rate and remaining 25% were showed up-regulated expression of MiRNA335 with high survival rate. Conclusion: The present study showed that reduced expression of MiRNA335 is associated with the advancement of the disease, and its deregulation may provide important clues to understanding it as a prognostic marker and opportunities for future research.

Keywords: carcinoma gallbladder, downregulation, MiRNA-335, RT-PCR assay

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Authors: Cai Qianyi

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In the midst of global digital revolution, the flow of data poses security threats that call China's existing legislative framework for protecting personal information into question. As a preliminary procedure for risk analysis and prevention, the risk assessment of personal data transmission lacks detailed guidelines for support. Existing provisions reveal unclear responsibilities for network operators and weakened rights for data subjects. Furthermore, the regulatory system's weak operability and a lack of industry self-regulation heighten data transmission hazards. This paper aims to compare the regulatory pathways for data information transmission risks between China and Europe from a legal framework and content perspective. It draws on the “Data Protection Impact Assessment Guidelines” to empower multiple stakeholders, including data processors, controllers, and subjects, while also defining obligations. In conclusion, this paper intends to solve China's digital security shortcomings by developing a more mature regulatory framework and industry self-regulation mechanisms, resulting in a win-win situation for personal data protection and the development of the digital economy.

Keywords: personal information data transmission, risk assessment, DPIA, internet service provider, personal information data transimission, risk assessment

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Authors: Yang Yu, Jian Wang, Jiqiang Liu, Lei Han, Xudong He, Shaohua Lv

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As the increasing network attacks become more and more complex, network situation assessment based on log analysis cannot meet the requirements to ensure network security because of the low quality of logs and alerts. This paper addresses the lack of consideration of security attributes of hosts and attacks in the network. Identity and effectiveness of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) are hard to be proved in risk assessment based on alerts and flow matching. This paper proposes a multi-dimension threat situation assessment method based on network security attributes. First, the paper offers an improved Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS) calculation, which includes confident risk, integrity risk, availability risk and a weighted risk. Second, the paper introduces deterioration rate of properties collected by sensors in hosts and network, which aimed at assessing the time and level of DDoS attacks. Third, the paper introduces distribution of asset value in security attributes considering features of attacks and network, which aimed at assessing and show the whole situation. Experiments demonstrate that the approach reflects effectiveness and level of DDoS attacks, and the result can show the primary threat in network and security requirement of network. Through comparison and analysis, the method reflects more in security requirement and security risk situation than traditional methods based on alert and flow analyzing.

Keywords: DDoS evaluation, improved CVSS, network security attribute, threat situation assessment

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Authors: Prasansha Kumari

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This paper intends to identify and analyze customer adoption and attitudes towards mobile banking facilities. The study uses six perceived characteristics of innovation that can be used to form a favorable or unfavorable attitude toward an innovation, namely: Relative advantage, compatibility, complexity, trailability, risk, and observability. Collected data were analyzed using Pearson Chi-Square test. The results showed that mobile bank users were predominantly males. There is a growing trend among young, educated customers towards converting to mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The research outcomes suggested that all the six factors are statistically highly significant in influencing mobile banking adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking in Sri Lanka. The major reasons for adopting mobile banking services are the accessibility and availability of services regardless of time and place. Over the 75 percent of the respondents mentioned that savings in time and effort and low financial costs of conducting mobile banking were advantageous. Issue of security was found to be the most important factor that motivated consumer adoption and attitude formation towards mobile banking. Main barriers to mobile banking were the lack of technological skills, the traditional cash‐carry banking culture, and the lack of awareness and insufficient guidance to using mobile banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observability, risk

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Authors: Herawanti Kumalasari, Raldi Hendro Koestoer, Hayati Sari Hasibuan

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Geographically, Indonesia is located in the arc of volcanoes that cause disaster prone one of them is landslide disaster. One of the causes of the landslide is the conversion of land from forest to agricultural land in upland areas and river border that has a steep slope. The study area is located in the highlands with fertile soil conditions, so most of the land is used as agricultural land and plantations. Land use transfer also occurs around the geothermal field in Pangalengan District, West Java Province which will threaten the sustainability of geothermal energy utilization and the safety of the community. The purpose of this research is to arrange the concept of spatial pattern arrangement in the geothermal area based on disaster mitigation. This research method using superimpose analysis. Superimpose analysis to know the basic physical condition of the planned area through the overlay of disaster risk map with the map of the plan of spatial plan pattern of Bandung Regency Spatial Plan. The results of the analysis will then be analyzed spatially. The results have shown that most of the study areas were at moderate risk level. Planning of spatial pattern of existing study area has not fully considering the spread of disaster risk that there are settlement area and the agricultural area which is in high landslide risk area. The concept of the arrangement of the spatial pattern of the study area will use zoning system which is divided into three zones namely core zone, buffer zone and development zone.

Keywords: spatial planning, geothermal, disaster risk, zoning

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Suicide wrongful death forensic cases are the fastest rising tort in mental health law. It is estimated that suicide-related cases have accounted for 15% of U.S. malpractice claims since 2006. Most suicide-related personal injury claims fall into the legal category of “wrongful death.” Though mental health experts may be called on to address a range of forensic questions in wrongful death cases, the central consultation that most experts provide is about the negligence element—specifically, the issue of whether the clinician met the clinical standard of care in assessing, treating, and managing the deceased person’s mental health care. Standards of care, varying from U.S. state to state, are broad and address what a reasonable clinician might do in a similar circumstance. This fact leaves the issue of the suicide standard of care, in each case, up to forensic experts to put forth a reasoned estimate of what the standard of care should have been in the specific case under litigation. Because the general state guidelines for standard of care are broad, forensic experts are readily retained to provide scientific and clinical opinions about whether or not a clinician met the standard of care in their suicide assessment, treatment, and management of the case. In the past and in much of current practice, the assessment of suicide has centered on the elicitation of verbalized suicide ideation. Research in recent years, however, has indicated that the majority of persons who end their lives do not say they are suicidal at their last medical or psychiatric contact. Near-term risk assessment—that goes beyond verbalized suicide ideation—is needed. Our previous research employed structural equation modeling to predict lethal suicide risk--eight negative thought patterns (feeling like a burden on others, hopelessness, self-hatred, etc.) mediated by nine transdiagnostic clinical factors (mental torment, insomnia, substance abuse, PTSD intrusions, etc.) were combined to predict acute lethal suicide risk. This structural equation model, the Lethal Suicide Risk Pattern (LSRP), Acute model, had excellent goodness-of-fit [χ2(df) = 94.25(47)***, CFI = .98, RMSEA = .05, .90CI = .03-.06, p(RMSEA = .05) = .63. AIC = 340.25, ***p < .001.]. A further SEQ analysis was completed for this paper, adding a measure of Acute Suicide Ideation to the previous SEQ. Acceptable prediction model fit was no longer achieved [χ2(df) = 3.571, CFI > .953, RMSEA = .075, .90% CI = .065-.085, AIC = 529.550].This finding suggests that, in this additional study, immediate verbalized suicide ideation information was unhelpful in the assessment of lethal risk. The LSRP and other dynamic, near-term risk models (such as the Acute Suicide Affective Disorder Model and the Suicide Crisis Syndrome Model)—going beyond elicited suicide ideation—need to be incorporated into current clinical suicide assessment training. Without this training, the standard of care for suicide assessment is out of sync with current research—an emerging dilemma for the forensic evaluation of suicide wrongful death cases.

Keywords: forensic evaluation, standard of care, suicide, suicide assessment, wrongful death

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Authors: Manirath Wongsim

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AIS plays an important role in business management, strategic and can provide assistance in all phases of decision making. Thus, many organisations needs to be seen as well adopting AIS, which is critical to a company in order to organise, manage and operate process in all sections. In order to implement AIS successfully, it is important to understand the underlying factors that influence the AIS adoption. Therefore, this research intends to study this perspective of factors influence and impact on AIS adoption’s success. The model has been designed to illustrate factors influences in AIS adoption. It also attempts to identify the critical success factors that organisations should focus on, to ensure the adoption on accounting process. This framework will be developed from case studies by collecting qualitative and quantitative data. Case study and survey methodology were adopted for this research. Case studies in two Thai- organisations were carried out. The results of the two main case studies suggested 9 factors that may have impact on in AIS adoption. Survey instrument was developed based on the findings from case studies. Two large-scale surveys were sent to selected members of Thailand Accountant, and Thailand Computer Society to further develop and test the research framework. The top three critical factors for ensuring AIS adoption were: top management commitment, steering committees, and Technical capability of AIS personnel. That is, it is now clear which factors impact in AIS adoption, and which of those factors are critical success factors for ensuring AIS adoption successes

Keywords: accounting information system, accounting information systems adoption, and inflecting AIS adoption

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, O. Osibanjo

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Informal electronic waste (e-waste) processing is a crude method of recycling, which is on the increase in Nigeria. The release of hazardous substances such as heavy metals (HMs) into the environment during informal e-waste processing has been a major concern. However, there is insufficient information on environmental contamination from e-waste recycling, associated ecological risk in Alaba International Market, a major electronic market in Lagos, Nigeria. The aims of this study were to determine the levels of HMs in soil, resulting from the e-waste recycling; and also assess associated ecological risks in Alaba international market. Samples of soils (334) were randomly collected seasonally for three years from fourteen selected e-waste activity points and two control sites. The samples were digested using standard methods and HMs analysed by inductive coupled plasma optical emission. Ecological risk was estimated using Ecological Risk index (ER), Potential Ecological Risk index (RI), Index of geoaccumulation (Igeo), Contamination factor (Cf) and degree of contamination factor (Cdeg). The concentrations range of HMs (mg/kg) in soil were: 16.7-11200.0 (Pb); 14.3-22600.0 (Cu); 1.90-6280.0 (Ni), 39.5-4570.0 (Zn); 0.79-12300.0 (Sn); 0.02-138.0 (Cd); 12.7-1710.0 (Ba); 0.18-131.0 (Cr); 0.07-28.0 (V), while As was below detection limit. Concentrations range in control soils were 1.36-9.70 (Pb), 2.06-7.60 (Cu), 1.25-5.11 (Ni), 3.62-15.9 (Zn), BDL-0.56 (Sn), BDL-0.01 (Cd), 14.6-47.6 (Ba), 0.21–12.2 (Cr) and 0.22-22.2 (V). The trend in ecological risk index was in the order Cu > Pb > Ni > Zn > Cr > Cd > Ba > V. The potential ecological risk index with respect to informal e-waste activities were: burning > dismantling > disposal > stockpiling. The index of geo accumulation indices revealed that soils were extremely polluted with Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn and Ni. The contamination factor indicated that 93% of the studied areas have very high contamination status for Pb, Cu, Ba, Sn and Co while Cr and Cd were in the moderately contaminated status. The degree of contamination decreased in the order of Sn > Cu > Pb >> Zn > Ba > Co > Ni > V > Cr > Cd. Heavy metal contamination of Alaba international market environment resulting from informal e-waste processing was established. Proper management of e-waste and remediation of the market environment are recommended to minimize the ecological risks.

Keywords: Alaba international market, ecological risk, electronic waste, heavy metal contamination

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Authors: Abraham Castellanos, Christophe Durville, Sophie Echenim

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In this article, a portfolio optimization problem is performed in a Solvency II context: it illustrates how advanced optimization techniques can help to tackle complex operational pain points around the monitoring, control, and stability of Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The market SCR of a portfolio is calculated as a combination of SCR sub-modules. These sub-modules are the results of stress-tests on interest rate, equity, property, credit and FX factors, as well as concentration on counter-parties. The market SCR is non convex and non differentiable, which does not make it a natural optimization criteria candidate. In the SCR formulation, correlations between sub-modules are fixed, whereas risk-driven portfolio allocation is usually driven by the dynamics of the actual correlations. Implementing a portfolio construction approach that is efficient on both a regulatory and economic standpoint is not straightforward. Moreover, the challenge for insurance portfolio managers is not only to achieve a minimal SCR to reduce non-invested capital but also to ensure stability of the SCR. Some optimizations have already been performed in the literature, simplifying the standard formula into a quadratic function. But to our knowledge, it is the first time that the standard formula of the market SCR is used in an optimization problem. Two solvers are combined: a bundle algorithm for convex non- differentiable problems, and a BFGS (Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb- Shanno)-SQP (Sequential Quadratic Programming) algorithm, to cope with non-convex cases. A market SCR minimization is then performed with historical data. This approach results in significant reduction of the capital requirement, compared to a classical Markowitz approach based on the historical volatility. A comparative analysis of different optimization models (equi-risk-contribution portfolio, minimizing volatility portfolio and minimizing value-at-risk portfolio) is performed and the impact of these strategies on risk measures including market SCR and its sub-modules is evaluated. A lack of diversification of market SCR is observed, specially for equities. This was expected since the market SCR strongly penalizes this type of financial instrument. It was shown that this direct effect of the regulation can be attenuated by implementing constraints in the optimization process or minimizing the market SCR together with the historical volatility, proving the interest of having a portfolio construction approach that can incorporate such features. The present results are further explained by the Market SCR modelling.

Keywords: financial risk, numerical optimization, portfolio management, solvency capital requirement

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

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Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using the neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility, overhead and profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian construction industry

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Authors: Pouya Khaleghi

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Dental implants are a successful treatment modality for restoring both function and aesthetics. Dental implant treatment has predictive results in the replacement of the lost teeth and has a high success rate even in the long term. The most important factor which is responsible for the positive course of implant treatment is the process of osseointegration between the implant structure and the host’s bone tissue. During recent years, many studies have focused on surgical and prosthetic factors, as well as the implant-related factors. However, implant failure still occurs despite the improvements that have led to the increased survival rate of dental implants, which suggests the possible role of some host-related risk factors. Vitamin D is a fat-soluble vitamin regulating calcium and phosphorus metabolism in tissues. The role of vitamin D in bone healing has been under investigation for several years. Vitamin D deficiency has also been associated with impaired and delayed callus formation and fractures healing; however, the role of vitamin D has not been clarified. Therefore, it is extremely important to study the phenomenon of a connection formed between bone tissue and the surface of a titanium implant and find correlations between the 25- hydroxycholecalciferol concentration in blood serum and the course of osseointegration. Because the processes of bone remodeling are very dynamic in the period of actual osseointegration, it is necessary to obtain the correct concentration of vitamin D3 metabolites in blood serum. In conclusion, the correct level of 25-hydroxycholecalciferol on the day of surgery and vitamin D deficiency treatment have a significant influence on the increase in the bone level at the implant site during the process of osseointegration assessed radiologically.

Keywords: implant, osseointegration, vitamin d, dental

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Authors: Dipendra Kumar Yadav, Nabaraj Paudel, Anjana Yadav

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Background: Low Birth weight (LBW) is defined as the weight at birth less than 2500 grams, irrespective of the period of their gestation. LBW is an important indicator of general health status of population and is considered as the single most important predictors of infant mortality especially of deaths within the first month of life that is birth weight determines the chances of newborn survival. Objective of this study was to identify the maternal risk factors associated with low birth weight neonates. Materials and Methods: A hospital based case-control study was conducted in maternity ward of Manipal Teaching Hospital, Pokhara, Nepal from 23 September 2014 to 12 November 2014. During study period 59 cases were obtained and twice number of control group were selected with frequency matching of the mother`s age with ± 3 years and total controls were 118. Interview schedule was used for data collection along with record review. Data were entered in Epi-data program and analysis was done with help of SPSS software program. Results: From bivariate logistic regression analysis, eighteen variables were found significantly associated with LBW and these were place of residence, family monthly income, education, previous still birth, previous LBW, history of STD, history of vaginal bleeding, anemia, ANC visits, less than four ANC visits, de-worming status, counseling during pregnancy, CVD, physical workload, stress, extra meal during pregnancy, smoking and alcohol consumption status. However after adjusting confounding variables, only six variables were found significantly associated with LBW. Mothers who had family monthly income up to ten thousand rupees were 4.83 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.5-40.645) and p value 0.014 compared to mothers whose family income NRs.20,001-60,000. Mothers who had previous still birth were 2.01 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (0.69-5.87) and p value 0.02 compared to mothers who did not has previous still birth. Mothers who had previous LBW were 5.472 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.2-24.93) and p value 0.028 compared to mothers who did not has previous LBW. Mothers who had anemia during pregnancy were 3.36 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (0.77-14.57) and p value 0.014 compared to mothers who did not has anemia. Mothers who delivered female newborn were 2.96 times more likely to have LBW with 95% CI (1.27-7.28) and p value 0.01 compared to mothers who deliver male newborn. Mothers who did not get extra meal during pregnancy were 6.04 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.11-32.7) and p value 0.037 compared to mothers who getting the extra meal during pregnancy. Mothers who consumed alcohol during pregnancy were 4.83 times more likely to deliver LBW with CI (1.57-14.83) and p value 0.006 compared to mothers who did not consumed alcohol during pregnancy. Conclusions: To reduce low birth weight baby through economic empowerment of family and individual women. Prevention and control of anemia during pregnancy is one of the another strategy to control the LBW baby and mothers should take full dose of iron supplements with screening of haemoglobin level. Extra nutritional food should be provided to women during pregnancy. Health promotion program will be focused on avoidance of alcohol and strengthen of health services that leads increasing use of maternity services.

Keywords: low birth weight, case-control, risk factors, hospital based study

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Authors: Felix Olajide Ibikunle

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Introductory Statement: Sustainable participation of teenagers in sport requires deliberate and concerted plan and managerial policy rooted in the “philosophy of catch them young”. At risk, teenagers need proper integration into societal aspiration: This direction will go a long way to streamline them into the security breach and attractive nuisance free lifestyles. Basic Methodology: The population consists of children within 13-19 years old. A proportionate sampling size technique of 60% was adopted to select seven zones out of 11 geo-political zones in the Ibadan metropolis. Qualitative information and interview were used to collect needed information. Majority of the teenagers were out of school, street hawkers, motor pack, touts, and unserious vocation apprentices. These groups have the potentials of security breaches in the metropolis and beyond. Five hundred and thirty-four (534) respondents were used for the study. They were drawn from Ojoo, Akingbile, and Moniya axis = 72, Agbowo, Ajibode, and Apete axis = 74; Akobo, Basorun, and Idi-ape axis 79; Wofun, Monatan, and Iyana-Church axis = 78; Molete, Oke-ado and Oke-Bola axis = 75; Beere, Odinjo, Elekuro axis = 77; Eleyele, Ologuneru, and Alesinloye axis = 79. Major Findings: Multiple regression was used to analyze the independent variables and percentage. The respondents average age was 15.6 years old, and with 100% male. The instrument(questionnaire) used yielded; sport preference (r = 0.72); intervention (r = 0.68) and the sustainable participation (r = 0.70).The relative contributions of sport preference on participation of at risk teenagers was (F-ratio = 1.067); Intervention contribution of sport on participation of at risk teenagers = produced (F-ratio of 12.095) was significant while sustainable participation of at risk teenager produced (F-ratio = 1.062) was significant. Closing Statement: The respondents’ sport preference stimulated their participation in sport. The intervention exposed at risk-teenagers to coaching, which activated their interest and participation in sport. While sustainable participation contributed positively to evolve at risk teenagers participation in their preferred sport.

Keywords: sport, preference, intervention, teenagers, sustainable, participation and risk teenagers

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Authors: Omran Alharbi, Victor Lally

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In recent decades, a number of educational institutions around the world have come to depend on technology such as the Blackboard system to improve their educational environment. On the other hand, there are many factors that delay the usage of this technology, especially in developing nations such as Saudi Arabia. The goal of this study was to investigate learner’s views of the use of Blackboard in one Saudi university in order to gain a comprehensive view of the factors that delay the implementation of technology in Saudi institutions. This study utilizes a qualitative approach, with data being collected through semi-structured interviews. Six participants from different disciplines took part in this study. The findings indicated that there are two levels of factors that affect students’ use of the Blackboard system. These are factors at the institutional level, such as lack of technical support and lack of training support, which lead to insufficient training related to the Blackboard system. The second level of factors is at the individual level, for example, a lack of teacher motivation and encouragement. In addition, students do not have sufficient levels of skills or knowledge related to how to use the Blackboard in their learning. Conclusion: learners confronted and faced two main types of factors (at the institution level and individual level) that delayed and impeded their learning. Institutions in KSA should take steps and implement strategies to remove or reduce these factors in order to allow students to benefit from the latest technology in their learning.

Keywords: blackboard, factors, KSA, learners

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Authors: Hassan Karimi, Fred Piercy, Ruoxi Chen, Ana L. Jaramillo-Sierra, Wei-Ning Chang, Manjushree Palit, Catherine Martosudarmo, Angelito Antonio

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Background: The two psychotherapy camps, the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and the common factors model, have competitively claimed specific explanations for therapy effectiveness. Recently, scholars called for empirical evidence to show the role of common factors in therapeutic outcome in marriage and family therapy. Purpose: This cross-national study aims to explore how clinicians, across different nations and theoretical orientations, attribute the contribution of common factors to therapy outcome. Method: A brief common factors questionnaire (CFQ-with a Cronbach’s Alpha, 0.77) was developed and administered in seven nations. A series of statistical analyses (paired-samples t-test, independent sample t-test, ANOVA) were conducted: to compare clinicians perceived contribution of total common factors versus model-specific factors, to compare each pair of common factors’ categories, and to compare clinicians from collectivistic nations versus clinicians from individualistic nation. Results: Clinicians across seven nations attributed 86% to common factors versus 14% to model-specific factors. Clinicians attributed 34% of therapeutic change to client’s factors, 26% to therapist’s factors, 26% to relationship factors, and 14% to model-specific techniques. The ANOVA test indicated each of the three categories of common factors (client 34%, therapist 26%, relationship 26%) showed higher contribution in therapeutic outcome than the category of model specific factors (techniques 14%). Clinicians with psychology degree attributed more contribution to model-specific factors than clinicians with MFT and counseling degrees who attributed more contribution to client factors. Clinicians from collectivistic nations attributed larger contributions to therapist’s factors (M=28.96, SD=12.75) than the US clinicians (M=23.22, SD=7.73). The US clinicians attributed a larger contribution to client’s factors (M=39.02, SD=1504) than clinicians from the collectivistic nations (M=28.71, SD=15.74). Conclusion: The findings indicate clinicians across the globe attributed more than two thirds of therapeutic change to CFs, which emphasize the training of the common factors model in the field. CFs, like model-specific factors, vary in their contribution to therapy outcome in relation to specific client, therapist, problem, treatment model, and sociocultural context. Sociocultural expectations and norms should be considered as a context in which both CFs and model-specific factors function toward therapeutic goals. Clinicians need to foster a cultural competency specifically regarding the divergent ways that CFs can be activated due to specific sociocultural values.

Keywords: common factors, model-specific factors, cross-national survey, therapist cultural competency, enhancing therapist efficacy

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Leila Yazdanpanah

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Objective: Metabolic syndrome or insulin resistance syndrome or syndrome X is a collection of abdominal obesity, hypertension, glucose intolerance and lipid abnormalities (elevated triglycerides, elevated LDL, and decrease the amount of HDL). That increases the incidence of diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome in people over 20 years of Ahvaz according to IDF, ATPIII, Harmonized I and Harmonized II. Material & Methods: A cross-sectional study with a random cluster sampling in six health centers in Ahvaz was done. After obtaining informed consent, questionnaire for each person filled up including demographic data and examinations, including blood pressure in sitting position, weight, height, waist circumference, and waist circumference measurement. Results: From all participating 912 people, (434 (2/47%) male and 478 (2/52%) female) were evaluated. Mean age was 42/27± 14years (44/2±14/26 for male and 40/5±13/5 for female). Prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 22/8%, 28/4%, 30/9% and 16/9% according to ATPIII, IDF, Harmonized I and Harmonized II criteria respectively and increased with age in both sexes. IDF and Harmonized I had most kappa coordination (0/94). Conclusion: The results show a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Ahvaz. So, identification of the risk factors should be attempted to prevent metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, IDF, ATP III, prevalence

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Authors: Mariana Goncalves, Marlene Matos

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Despite the scientific attention that it has received, the research on the victimization of women continues to neglect some factors that may enhance the risk of women to victimization. This study sought to identify the prevalence and the lifelong trajectories of multiply victimized women (childhood, adolescence, and adulthood), the co-occurrence of different types of victimization, the contexts of occurrence and emotional adjustment and resilience. We used a convenience sample of 120 women multiply victimized, including 35 Portuguese natives and 85 immigrant women (e.g., Brazilian, African) who were recruited from support institutions and shelters. The results documented the similarities and differences concerning victimization between these groups and the intersectional factors that may elucidate vulnerability to victimization. There was a high co-occurrence of types of victimization, particularly in adulthood. The victimization reported occurred frequently in different contexts: familiar, workplace and helping institutions. A higher number of victimization experiences was related with more emotional symptomatology, less familiar cohesion and less social resources. The implications of the results are discussed.

Keywords: multiple victimization, lifetime, natives, immigrants, prevalence, emotional adjustment

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

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This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

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Authors: Rashmi Dyondi, Shishir K. Jha

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The purpose of the paper is to address the strategic risk issues surrounding Hindi film distribution in Mumbai for a film distributor, who acts as an entrepreneur when launching a product (movie) in the market (film territory).The paper undertakes a fundamental review of films and risk in the Hindi film industry and applies Grounded Theory technique to understand the complex phenomena of risk taking behavior of the film distributors (both independent and studios) in Mumbai. Rich in-depth interviews with distributors are coded to develop core categories through constant comparison leading to conceptualization of the phenomena of interest. This paper is a first-of-its-kind-attempt to understand risk behavior of a distributor, which is akin to entrepreneurial risk behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Unlike extensive scholarly work on dynamics of Hollywood motion picture industry, Hindi film industry is an under-researched area till now. Especially how do film distributors perceive risk is an unexplored study for the Hindi film industry. Films are unique experience products and the film distributor acts as an entrepreneur assuming high risks given the uncertainty in the motion picture business. With the entry of mighty corporate studios and astronomical film budgets posing serious business threats to the independent distributors, there is a need for an in-depth qualitative enquiry (applying grounded theory technique) for unraveling the definition of risk for the independent distributors in Mumbai vis-à-vis the corporate studios. Need for good content was a common challenge to both the groups in the present state of the industry, however corporate studios with their distinct ideologies, focus on own productions and financial power faced different set of challenges than the independents (like achieving sustainability in business). Softer issues like market goodwill and relations with producers, honesty in business dealings and transparency came out to be clear markers for success of independents in long run. The findings from the qualitative analysis stress on different elements of risk and challenges as perceived by the two groups of distributors in the Hindi film industry and provide a future research agenda for empirical investigation of determinants of box-office success of Hindi films distributed in Mumbai.

Keywords: entrepreneurial risk behavior, film distribution strategy, Hindi film industry, risk

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Authors: Zhuang He, Andrei Kotousov

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All current experimental methods for determination of stress intensity factors are based on the assumption that the state of stress near the crack tip is plane stress. Therefore, these methods rely on strain and displacement measurements made outside the near crack tip region affected by the three-dimensional effects or by process zone. In this paper, we develop and validate an experimental procedure for the evaluation of stress intensity factors from the measurements of the out-of-plane displacements in the surface area controlled by 3D effects. The evaluation of stress intensity factors is possible when the process zone is sufficiently small, and the displacement field generated by the 3D effects is fully encapsulated by K-dominance region.

Keywords: digital image correlation, stress intensity factors, three-dimensional effects, transverse displacement

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody

Procedia PDF Downloads 281