Search results for: TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving)

Authors: Ravi Inder Singh

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Due to high heat transfer rate, high carbon utilizing efficiency, fuel flexibilities and other advantages numerous circulating fluidized bed boilers have grown up in India in last decade. Many companies like BHEL, ISGEC, Thermax, Cethar Limited, Enmas GB Power Systems Projects Limited are making CFBC and installing the units throughout the India. Due to complexity many problems exists in CFBC units and only few have been reported. Agglomeration i.e clinker formation in riser, loop seal leg and stripper ash coolers is one of problem industry is facing. Proper documentation is rarely found in the literature. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler bottom ash contains large amounts of physical heat. While the boiler combusts the low-calorie fuel, the ash content is normally more than 40% and the physical heat loss is approximately 3% if the bottom ash is discharged without cooling. In addition, the red-hot bottom ash is bad for mechanized handling and transportation, as the upper limit temperature of the ash handling machinery is 200 °C. Therefore, a bottom ash cooler (BAC) is often used to treat the high temperature bottom ash to reclaim heat, and to have the ash easily handled and transported. As a key auxiliary device of CFB boilers, the BAC has a direct influence on the secure and economic operation of the boiler. There are many kinds of BACs equipped for large-scale CFB boilers with the continuous development and improvement of the CFB boiler. These ash coolers are water cooled ash cooling screw, rolling-cylinder ash cooler (RAC), fluidized bed ash cooler (FBAC).In this study prototype of a novel stripper ash cooler is studied. The Circulating Fluidized bed Ash Coolers (CFBAC) combined the major technical features of spouted bed and bubbling bed, and could achieve the selective discharge on the bottom ash. The novel stripper ash cooler is bubbling bed and it is visible cold test rig. The reason for choosing cold test is that high temperature is difficult to maintain and create in laboratory level. The aim of study to know the flow pattern inside the stripper ash cooler. The cold rig prototype is similar to stripper ash cooler used industry and it was made after scaling down to some parameter. The performance of a fluidized bed ash cooler is studied using a cold experiment bench. The air flow rate, particle size of the solids and air distributor type are considered to be the key parameters of the operation of a fluidized bed ash cooler (FBAC) are studied in this.

Keywords: CFD, Eulerian-Eulerian, Eulerian-Lagraingian model, parallel simulations

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Authors: Jeremy Ritchey

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Undocumented immigrants in the U.S. face many challenges when looking to progress in society, especially when pursuing post-secondary education. The majority of research done on state-level policy adoption pertaining to undocumented higher-education pursuits, specifically in-state resident tuition and financial aid eligibility policies, have framed the discussion on the potential and actual impacts which implementation can and has achieved. What is missing is a model to view the social, political and demographic landscapes upon which such policies (in their various forms) find a route to legislative enactment. This research looks to address this gap in the field by investigating the correlations and significant state-level variables which can be operationalized to construct a framework for adoption of these specific policies. In the process, analysis will show that past unexamined conceptualizations of how such policies come to fruition may be limited or contradictory when compared to available data. Circling on the principles of Policy Innovation and Policy Diffusion theory, this study looks to use variables collected via Michigan State University’s Correlates of State Policy Project, a collectively and ongoing compiled database project centered around annual variables (1900-2016) collected from all 50 states relevant to policy research. Using established variable groupings (demographic, political, social capital measurements, and educational system measurements) from the time period of 2000 to 2014 (2001 being when such policies began), one can see how this data correlates with the adoption of policies related to undocumented students and in-state college tuition. After regression analysis, the results will illuminate which variables appears significant and to what effect, as to help formulate a model upon which to explain when adoption appears to occur and when it does not. Early results have shown that traditionally held conceptions on conservative and liberal identities of the state, as they relate to the likelihood of such policies being adopted, did not fall in line with the collected data. Democratic and liberally identified states were, overall, less likely to adopt pro-undocumented higher education policies than Republican and conservatively identified states and vis versa. While further analysis is needed as to improve the model’s explanatory power, preliminary findings are showing promise in widening our understanding of policy adoption factors in this realm of policies compared to the gap of such knowledge in the publications of the field as it currently exists. The model also looks to serve as an important tool for policymakers in framing such potential policies in a way that is congruent with the relevant state-level determining factors while being sensitive to the most apparent sources of potential friction. While additional variable groups and individual variables will ultimately need to be added and controlled for, this research has already begun to demonstrate how shallow or unexamined reasoning behind policy adoption in the realm of this topic needs to be addressed or else the risk is erroneous conceptions leaking into the foundation of this growing and ever important field.

Keywords: policy adoption, in-state tuition, higher education, undocumented immigrants

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Authors: Tirimisiyu Olaide Gbadamosi

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Individuals go into business for the sake of obtaining regular income, becoming self-employed. Although, there different kinds of business enterprises that female and male can go into, often times, some businesses are regarded more suitable for a particular sex and not the other. This means that there is some gender discrimination in the choice of business one goes into and by extension in entrepreneurship development. Apparently, gender attitudes and behaviors will have positive or negative effects on entrepreneurship development in a society or economy. This research work therefore intends to take a critical look at gender discrimination as they affect entrepreneurship development with particular reference to northern Nigeria in general, using Exceptional Production Services Limited Kaduna, Kaduna North Local Government area as a case study, and also to suggest the possible solution to unidentified problems and give recommendation where necessary. Statement of research problem: Entrepreneurship has generally been recognised as a good medium or strategy for economic development of an individual, a community and a nation. It is also a known a known fact that some gender discrimination are often used in the choice of business or even the decision to go into business. For example, some businesses are regarded as more suitable to men than women. The question here is, is this the right approach to economic development through entrepreneurship? Of what effect is this approach to entrepreneurship development? These and the other questions are what this research intends to find answers to and if possible make recommendations. Significance of the study: The findings of this study will provide a guide for anyone for the establishment of a business in Nigeria. The study will help any prospective entrepreneur to make the right decision of which business to go into and how to contend with gender related issues that might influence its success in business. Furthermore, it is hoped that the study will assist the government and her agencies in the process in developing entrepreneurship development programs. Conclusion: There has been growing recognition that various types of discrimination do not always affect women and men in the same way. Moreover, gender discrimination may be intensified and facilitated by all other forms of discrimination. It has been increasingly recognized that without gender analysis of all forms of discrimination in business, including multiple forms of discrimination, and, in particular, in this context, related intolerance, violations of the human rights of women might escape detection and remedies to address racism may also fail to meet the needs of women and girls. It is also important that efforts to address gender discrimination incorporate approaches to the elimination of all forms of discrimination. Recommendation: Campaigning and raising awareness among young men and women, parents, teachers and employers about gender stereotypical attitudes towards academic performances and the likely consequences of overall educational choices for employment and entrepreneurship opportunities, career progression and earnings.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, economic development, small medium enterprises, gender discrimination

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Authors: Owen Cegielski, Kristi Maida, Danny Morales, Sylvia L. Mendez

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This study explores the challenges and threats US secondary educators experience in incorporating culturally relevant education (CRE) practices in their classrooms. CRE is a social justice pedagogical practice used to connect student’s cultural references to academic skills and content, to promote critical reflection, to facilitate cultural competence, and to critique discourses of power and oppression. Empirical evidence on CRE demonstrates positive student educational outcomes in terms of achievement, engagement, and motivation. Additionally, due to the direct focus on uplifting diverse cultures through the curriculum, students experience greater feelings of belonging, increased interest in the subject matter, and stronger racial/ethnic identities. When these teaching practices are in place, educators develop deeper relationships with their students and appreciate the multitude of gifts they (and their families) bring to the classroom environment. Yet, educators regularly report being unprepared to incorporate CRE in their daily teaching practice and identify substantive gaps in their knowledge and skills in this area. Often, they were not exposed to CRE in their educator preparation program, nor do they receive adequate support through school- or district-wide professional development programming. Through a descriptive phenomenological research design, 20 interviews were conducted with a diverse set of secondary school educators to explore the challenges and threats they experience in incorporating CRE practices in their classrooms. The guiding research question for this study is: What are the challenges and threats US secondary educators face when seeking to incorporate CRE practices in their classrooms? Interviews were grounded by the theory of challenge and threat states, which highlights the ways in which challenges and threats are appraised and how resources factor into emotional valence and perception, as well as the potential to meet the task at hand. Descriptive phenomenological data analysis strategies were utilized to develop an essential structure of the educators’ views of challenges and threats in regard to incorporating CRE practices in their secondary classrooms. The attitude of the phenomenological reduction method was adopted, and the data were analyzed through five steps: sense of the whole, meaning units, transformation, structure, and essential structure. The essential structure that emerged was while secondary educators display genuine interest in learning how to successfully incorporate CRE practices, they perceive it to be a challenge (and not a threat) due to lack of exposure which diminishes educator capacity, comfort, and confidence in employing CRE practices. These findings reveal the value of attending to emotional valence and perception of CRE in promoting this social justice pedagogical practice. Findings also reveal the importance of appropriately resourcing educators with CRE support to ensure they develop and utilize this practice.

Keywords: culturally relevant education, descriptive phenomenology, social justice practice, US secondary education

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Authors: Adetona Abbassa, Aliyu Shakirat B.

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The study area is part of Bosso local Government, enclosed within Longitude 6.25’ to 6.31’ and Latitude 9.35’ to 9.45’, an area of 16x8 km², within the basement region of central Nigeria. The region is a host to Nigerian Airforce base 12 (NAF 12quick response) and its staff quarters, the headquarters of Bosso local government, the Independent National Electoral Commission’s two offices, four government secondary schools, six primary schools and Minna international airport. The area suffers an acute shortage of water from November when rains stop to June when rains commence within North Central Nigeria. A way of addressing this problem is a reconnaissance method to delineate possible fractures and fault lines that exists within the region by sampling the Aeromagnetic data and using an appropriate analytical algorithm to delineate these fractures. This is followed by an appropriate ground truthing method that will confirm if the fracture is connected to underground water movement. The first vertical derivative for structural analysis, reveals a set of lineaments labeled AA’, BB’, CC’, DD’, EE’ and FF’ all trending in the Northeast – Southwest directions. AA’ is just below latitude 9.45’ above Maikunkele village, cutting off the upper part of the field, it runs through Kangwo, Nini, Lawo and other communities. BB’ is at Latitude 9.43’ it truncated at about 2Km before Maikunkele and Kuyi. CC’ is around 9.40’ sitting below Maikunkele runs down through Nanaum. DD’ is from Latitude 9.38’; interestingly no community within this region where the fault passes through. A result from the three sites where Vertical Electrical Sounding was carried out reveals three layers comprised of topsoil, intermediate Clay formation and weathered/fractured or fresh basement. The depth to basement map was also produced, depth to the basement from the ground surface with VES A₂, B5, D₂ and E₁ to be relatively deeper with depth values range between 25 to 35 m while the shallower region of the area has a depth range value between 10 to 20 m. Hence, VES A₂, A₅, B₄, B₅, C₂, C₄, D₄, D₅, E₁, E₃, and F₄ are high conductivity zone that are prolific for groundwater potential. The depth range of the aquifer potential zones is between 22.7 m to 50.4 m. The result from site C is quite unique though the 3 layers were detected in the majority of the VES points, the maximum depth to the basement in 90% of the VES points is below 8 km, only three VES points shows considerably viability, which are C₆, E₂ and F₂ with depths of 35.2 m and 38 m respectively but lack of connectivity will be a big challenge of chargeability.

Keywords: lithology, aeromagnetic, aquifer, geoelectric, iso-resistivity, basement, vertical electrical sounding(VES)

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Authors: Md Tanvir Rahman, Mahbube Subhani, Mahmud Ashraf, Paul Kremer

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Cross-laminated timber (CLT) is made from layers of timber boards orthogonally oriented in the thickness direction, and due to this, CLT can withstand bi-axial bending in contrast with most other engineered wood products such as laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and glued laminated timber (GLT). Wood is cylindrically anisotropic in nature and is characterized by significantly lower elastic modulus and shear modulus in the planes perpendicular to the fibre direction, and is therefore classified as orthotropic material and is thus characterized by 9 elastic constants which are three elastic modulus in longitudinal direction, tangential direction and radial direction, three shear modulus in longitudinal tangential plane, longitudinal radial plane and radial tangential plane and three Poisson’s ratio. For simplification, timber materials are generally assumed to be transversely isotropic, reducing the number of elastic properties characterizing it to 5, where the longitudinal plane and radial planes are assumed to be planes of symmetry. The validity of this assumption was investigated through numerical modelling of CLT with both orthotropic mechanical properties and transversely isotropic material properties for three softwood species, which are Norway spruce, Douglas fir, Radiata pine, and three hardwood species, namely Victorian ash, Beech wood, and Aspen subjected to uniformly distributed loading under simply supported boundary condition. It was concluded that assuming the timber to be transversely isotropic results in a negligible error in the order of 1 percent. It was also observed that along with longitudinal elastic modulus, ratio of longitudinal shear modulus (GL) and rolling shear modulus (GR) has a significant effect on a deflection for CLT panels of lower span to depth ratio. For softwoods such as Norway spruce and Radiata pine, the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus, GL to rolling shear modulus GR is reported to be in the order of 12 to 15 times in literature. This results in shear flexibility in transverse layers leading to increased deflection under out-of-plane loading. The rolling shear modulus of hardwoods has been found to be significantly higher than those of softwoods, where the ratio between longitudinal shear modulus to rolling shear modulus as low as 4. This has resulted in a significant rise in research into the manufacturing of CLT from entirely from hardwood, as well as from a combination of softwood and hardwoods. The commonly used beam theory to analyze the performance of CLT panels under out-of-plane loads are the Shear analogy method, Gamma method, and k-method. The shear analogy method has been found to be the most effective method where shear deformation is significant. The effect of the ratio of longitudinal shear modulus and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer on the deflection of CLT under uniformly distributed load with respect to its length to depth ratio was investigated using shear analogy method. It was observed that shear deflection is reduced significantly as the ratio of the shear modulus of the longitudinal layer and rolling shear modulus of cross-layer decreases. This indicates that there is significant room for improvement of the bending performance of CLT through developing hybrid CLT from a mix of softwood and hardwood.

Keywords: rolling shear modulus, shear deflection, ratio of shear modulus and rolling shear modulus, timber

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Authors: Bharathadas Sandhya

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Janamaithri Suraksha Project is the community policing project of Kerala police, fully sponsored by the Government of Kerala and in vogue in Kerala for the last ten years. The socio-economically weaker areas in the hilly terrains consisting of tribal hamlets are given special importance under the project. These hamlets are visited by the beat police officers, and they intervene in various issues in the hamlets. This study is based on data collected from 350 respondents living in the tribal hamlets of the Nilambur area in the District of Malappuram. The respondents were personally interviewed by the research team using a questionnaire consisting of 183 questions, seeking the details regarding their interaction with beat police officers, their ability to prevent or detect crimes, the menace of Maoists (extremist) presence, their interventions in other socio-economic problems like alcoholism, school dropout issues, lack of facilities for preparation for competitive examinations for educated youth, etc. The perception of the tribal population regarding the effectiveness of police intervention in their criminal justice complaints, the attitude of the police officers towards the tribal population when they approach the police station with a criminal complaint, are also studied. The general socio-economic problems of the tribal population as perceived by them are also brought out. Being the visible agency of the government, the police person coming on beat duty to the hamlet is generally seen by the tribal population as a representative to whom they can communicate the issues, even if it’s solution rests with another department like the forest or agriculture. The analysis of the primary data is carried out using computer applications. The amount of social justice benefits the tribal hamlets received through various government schemes, and their deficiencies are brought out in the study. From the conclusions of the study, certain suggestions for positive criminal justice and social justice intervention strategies are made out. The need for various government departments to work in tandem with each other so as to bring out more effectiveness in the socio-economic projects is evident from the study. Whether it is the need to obtain a transport to go to school or problem of drinking water or even opening a bank account, at least occasionally, the visiting beat police officer is of help to the tribal population. Mostly the tribal population feels free to approach the police with a criminal complaint without any inhibitions.

Keywords: community policing, beat police officer, criminal justice, social justice

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Authors: D. M. Rey, V. Delgado, J. Zambrano Nájera

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Increases in urbanization during XX century, has produced changes in natural dynamics of the basins, which has resulted in increases in runoff volumes, peak flows and flow velocities, that in turn increases flood risk. Higher runoff volumes decrease sewerage networks hydraulic capacity and can cause its failure. This in turn generates increasingly recurrent floods causing mobility problems and general economic detriment in the cities. In Latin America, especially Colombia, this is a major problem because urban population at late XX century was more than 70% is in urban areas increasing approximately in 790% in 1940-1990 period. Besides, high slopes product of Andean topography and high precipitation typical of tropical climates increases velocities and volumes even more, causing stopping of cities during storms. Thus, it becomes very important to know hydrological behavior of Andean Urban Watersheds. This research aims to determine the impact of urbanization in high sloped urban watersheds in its hydrology. To this end, it will be used as study area experimental urban watershed named Palogrande-San Luis watershed, located in the city of Manizales, Colombia. Manizales is a city in central western Colombia, located in Colombian Central Mountain Range (part of Los Andes Mountains) with an abrupt topography (average altitude is 2.153 m). The climate in Manizales is quite uniform, but due to its high altitude it presents high precipitations (1.545 mm/year average) with high humidity (83% average). It was applied HEC-HMS Hydrologic model on the watershed. The inputs to the model were derived from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) theme layers of the Instituto de Estudios Ambientales –IDEA of Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales (Institute of Environmental Studies) and aerial photography taken for the research in conjunction with available literature and look up tables. Rainfall data from a network of 4 rain gages and historical stream flow data were used to calibrate and validate runoff depth using the hydrologic model. Manual calibration was made, and the simulation results show that the model selected is able to characterize the runoff response of the watershed due to land use for urbanization in high mountain watersheds.

Keywords: Andean watersheds modelling, high mountain urban hydrology, urban planning, hydrologic modelling

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Authors: Wei Ting Han, Shiann-Far Kung

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In the early time, most of the arable land is dry farming and using rainfall as water sources for irrigation in Tainan county. After the Chia-nan Irrigation System (CIS) was completed in 1930, Chia-nan Plain was more efficient allocation of limited water sources or irrigation, because of the benefit from irrigation systems, drainage systems, and land improvement projects. The problem of long-term drought, flood and salt damage in the past were also improved by CIS. The canal greatly improved the paddy field area and agricultural output, Tainan county has become one of the important agricultural producing areas in Taiwan. With the development of water conservancy facilities, affected by national policies and other factors, many agricultural communities and settlements are formed indirectly, also promoted the change of settlement patterns and internal structures. With the development of historical geographic information system (HGIS), Academia Sinica developed the WebGIS theme with the century old maps of Taiwan which is the most complete historical map of database in Taiwan. It can be used to overlay historical figures of different periods, present the timeline of the settlement change, also grasp the changes in the natural environment or social sciences and humanities, and the changes in the settlements presented by the visualized areas. This study will explore the historical development and spatial characteristics of the settlements in various areas of Tainan County. Using of large-scale areas to explore the settlement changes and spatial patterns of the entire county, through the dynamic time and space evolution from Japanese rule to the present day. Then, digitizing the settlement of different periods to perform overlay analysis by using Taiwan historical topographic maps in 1904, 1921, 1956 and 1989. Moreover, using document analysis to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of regional environment and settlement structure. In addition, the comparison analysis method is used to classify the spatial characteristics and differences between the settlements. Exploring the influence of external environments in different time and space backgrounds, such as government policies, major construction, and industrial development. This paper helps to understand the evolution of the settlement space and the internal structural changes in Tainan County.

Keywords: historical geographic information system, overlay analysis, settlement change, Tainan County

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Authors: Henrique Rangel, Alexandre Fadel, Igor De Lazari, Bianca Neri, Carlos Bolonha

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This paper promotes a comparative analysis of American and Brazilian models of federalism assuming their levels of political centralization as main criterion. The central problem faced herein is the Brazilian approach of Unitarian regime. Although the hegemony of federative form after 1989, Brazil had a historical frame of political centralization that remains under the 1988 constitutional regime. Meanwhile, United States framed a federalism in which States absorb significant authorities. The hypothesis holds that the amount of alternative criteria of federalization – which can generate political centralization –, and the way they are upheld on judicial review, are crucial to understand the levels of political centralization achieved in each model. To test this hypothesis, the research is conducted by a methodology temporally delimited to 1994-2014 period. Three paradigmatic precedents of U.S. Supreme Court were selected: United States vs. Morrison (2000), on gender-motivated violence, Gonzales vs. Raich (2005), on medical use of marijuana, and United States vs. Lopez (1995), on firearm possession on scholar zones. These most relevant cases over federalism in the recent activity of Supreme Court indicates a determinant parameter of deliberation: the commerce clause. After observe the criterion used to permit or prohibit the political centralization in America, the Brazilian normative context is presented. In this sense, it is possible to identify the eventual legal treatment these controversies could receive in this Country. The decision-making reveals some deliberative parameters, which characterizes each federative model. At the end of research, the precedents of Rehnquist Court promote a broad revival of federalism debate, establishing the commerce clause as a secure criterion to uphold or not the necessity of centralization – even with decisions considered conservative. Otherwise, the Brazilian federalism solves them controversies upon in a formalist fashion, within numerous and comprehensive – sometimes casuistic too – normative devices, oriented to make an intense centralization. The aim of this work is indicate how jurisdictional federalism found in United States can preserve a consistent model with States robustly autonomous, while Brazil gives preference to normative mechanisms designed to starts from centralization.

Keywords: constitutional design, federalism, U.S. Supreme Court, legislative authority

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Authors: Hoa Pham

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The literature on language teaching and second language acquisition has been largely driven by monolingual ideology with a common assumption that a second language (L2) is best taught and learned in the L2 only. The current study challenges this assumption by reporting learners' positive perceptions of tertiary level teachers' code switching practices in Vietnam. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of code switching practices in language classrooms from a learners' perspective. Data were collected from student participants who were working towards a Bachelor degree in English within the English for Business Communication stream through the use of focus group interviews. The literature has documented that this method of interviewing has a number of distinct advantages over individual student interviews. For instance, group interactions generated by focus groups create a more natural environment than that of an individual interview because they include a range of communicative processes in which each individual may influence or be influenced by others - as they are in their real life. The process of interaction provides the opportunity to obtain the meanings and answers to a problem that are "socially constructed rather than individually created" leading to the capture of real-life data. The distinct feature of group interaction offered by this technique makes it a powerful means of obtaining deeper and richer data than those from individual interviews. The data generated through this study were analysed using a constant comparative approach. Overall, the students expressed positive views of this practice indicating that it is a useful teaching strategy. Teacher code switching was seen as a learning resource and a source supporting language output. This practice was perceived to promote student comprehension and to aid the learning of content and target language knowledge. This practice was also believed to scaffold the students' language production in different contexts. However, the students indicated their preference for teacher code switching to be constrained, as extensive use was believed to negatively impact on their L2 learning and trigger cognitive reliance on the L1 for L2 learning. The students also perceived that when the L1 was used to a great extent, their ability to develop as autonomous learners was negatively impacted. This study found that teacher code switching was supported in certain contexts by learners, thus suggesting that there is a need for the widespread assumption about the monolingual teaching approach to be re-considered.

Keywords: codeswitching, L1 use, L2 teaching, learners’ perception

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Authors: Kazi Rizvan, Yamin Rekhu

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Due to high competitiveness in industries throughout the world, every industry is trying hard to utilize all their resources to keep their productivity as high as possible. Many tools have been being used to ensure smoother flow of an operation, to balance tasks, to maintain proper schedules for tasks, to maintain proper sequence for tasks, to reduce unproductive time. All of these tools are used to augment productivity within an industry. Kanban board is one of them and of the many important tools of lean production system. Kanban Board is a visual depiction of the status of tasks. Kanban board shows the actual status of the tasks. It conveys the progress and issues of tasks as well. Using Kanban Board, tasks can be distributed among workers and operation targets can be visually represented to them. In this paper, an example of Kanban board from the aspects of Brothers Furniture Limited was taken and how the Kanban board system was implemented, how the board was designed and how it was made easily perceivable for the less literate or illiterate workers. The Kanban board was designed for the packing section of Brothers Furniture Limited. It was implemented for the purpose of representing the tasks flow to the workers and to mitigate the time that was wasted while the workers remained wondering about what task they should start after they finish one. Kanban board subsumed seven columns and there was a column for comments where if any problem occurred during working on the tasks. Kanban board was helpful for the workers as the board showed the urgency of the tasks. It was also helpful for the store section as they could understand which products and how much of them could be delivered to store at any certain time. Kanban board had all the information centralized which is why the work-flow got paced up and idle time was minimized. Regardless of many workers being illiterate or less literate, Kanban board was still explicable for the workers as the Kanban cards were colored. Since the significance of colors can be conveniently interpretable to them, colored cards helped a great deal in that matter. Hence, the illiterate or less literate workers didn’t have to spend time wondering about the significance of the cards. Even when the workers weren’t told the significance of the colored cards, they could grow a feeling about their meaning as colors can trigger anyone’s mind to perceive the situation. As a result, the board elucidated the workers about what board required them to do, when to do and what to do next. Kanban board alleviated excessive time between tasks by setting day-plan for targeted tasks and it also reduced time during tasks as the workers were acknowledged of forthcoming tasks for a day. Being very specific to the tasks, Kanban board helped the workers become more focused on their tasks helped them do their job with more perfection. As a result, The Kanban board helped achieve a 8.75% increase in productivity than the productivity before the Kanban board was implemented.

Keywords: color, Kanban Board, Lean Tool, literacy, packing, productivity

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Authors: Jiuyao Jiang, Jiahao Liu, Jichao Li, Kewei Yang, Minghao Li, Bingfeng Ge

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Modern warfare has transitioned from the paradigm of isolated combat forces to system-to-system confrontations due to advancements in combat technologies and application concepts. A combat system-of-systems (CSoS) is a combat network composed of independently operating entities that interact with one another to provide overall operational capabilities. Enhancing the resilience of CSoS is garnering increasing attention due to its significant practical value in optimizing network architectures, improving network security and refining operational planning. Accordingly, a unified framework called CSoS space-time resilience enhancement (CSoS-STRE) has been proposed, which enhances the resilience of CSoS by incorporating spatial features. Firstly, a multilayer spatial combat network model has been constructed, which incorporates an information layer depicting the interrelations among combat entities based on the OODA loop, along with a spatial layer that considers the spatial characteristics of equipment entities, thereby accurately reflecting the actual combat process. Secondly, building upon the combat network model, a spatiotemporal resilience optimization model is proposed, which reformulates the resilience optimization problem as a classical linear optimization model with spatial features. Furthermore, the model is extended from scenarios without obstacles to those with obstacles, thereby further emphasizing the importance of spatial characteristics. Thirdly, a resilience-oriented recovery optimization method based on improved non dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (R-INSGA) is proposed to determine the optimal recovery sequence for the damaged entities. This method not only considers spatial features but also provides the optimal travel path for multiple recovery teams. Finally, the feasibility, effectiveness, and superiority of the CSoS-STRE are demonstrated through a case study. Simultaneously, under deliberate attack conditions based on degree centrality and maximum operational loop performance, the proposed CSoS-STRE method is compared with six baseline recovery strategies, which are based on performance, time, degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. The comparison demonstrates that CSoS-STRE achieves faster convergence and superior performance.

Keywords: space-time resilience enhancement, resilience optimization model, combat system-of-systems, recovery optimization method, no-obstacles and obstacles

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Authors: Hassan Karimi, Fred Piercy, Ruoxi Chen, Ana L. Jaramillo-Sierra, Wei-Ning Chang, Manjushree Palit, Catherine Martosudarmo, Angelito Antonio

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Background: The two psychotherapy camps, the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and the common factors model, have competitively claimed specific explanations for therapy effectiveness. Recently, scholars called for empirical evidence to show the role of common factors in therapeutic outcome in marriage and family therapy. Purpose: This cross-national study aims to explore how clinicians, across different nations and theoretical orientations, attribute the contribution of common factors to therapy outcome. Method: A brief common factors questionnaire (CFQ-with a Cronbach’s Alpha, 0.77) was developed and administered in seven nations. A series of statistical analyses (paired-samples t-test, independent sample t-test, ANOVA) were conducted: to compare clinicians perceived contribution of total common factors versus model-specific factors, to compare each pair of common factors’ categories, and to compare clinicians from collectivistic nations versus clinicians from individualistic nation. Results: Clinicians across seven nations attributed 86% to common factors versus 14% to model-specific factors. Clinicians attributed 34% of therapeutic change to client’s factors, 26% to therapist’s factors, 26% to relationship factors, and 14% to model-specific techniques. The ANOVA test indicated each of the three categories of common factors (client 34%, therapist 26%, relationship 26%) showed higher contribution in therapeutic outcome than the category of model specific factors (techniques 14%). Clinicians with psychology degree attributed more contribution to model-specific factors than clinicians with MFT and counseling degrees who attributed more contribution to client factors. Clinicians from collectivistic nations attributed larger contributions to therapist’s factors (M=28.96, SD=12.75) than the US clinicians (M=23.22, SD=7.73). The US clinicians attributed a larger contribution to client’s factors (M=39.02, SD=1504) than clinicians from the collectivistic nations (M=28.71, SD=15.74). Conclusion: The findings indicate clinicians across the globe attributed more than two thirds of therapeutic change to CFs, which emphasize the training of the common factors model in the field. CFs, like model-specific factors, vary in their contribution to therapy outcome in relation to specific client, therapist, problem, treatment model, and sociocultural context. Sociocultural expectations and norms should be considered as a context in which both CFs and model-specific factors function toward therapeutic goals. Clinicians need to foster a cultural competency specifically regarding the divergent ways that CFs can be activated due to specific sociocultural values.

Keywords: common factors, model-specific factors, cross-national survey, therapist cultural competency, enhancing therapist efficacy

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Authors: Maria Luiza Fulga, Georgeta Truca, Mihaela Alexandru, Andriescu Mariana, Crin Marcean

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The significance of nursing as a subject in the post-secondary healthcare curriculum is a major. We aimed to enable our students to assess the patient's risk, to establish prevention measures and to adapt to a specific learning context, in order to acquire the skills and abilities necessary for the nursing profession. In order to achieve these objectives, during the three years of study, teachers put an emphasis on acquiring communication skills, because in our country after the first cycle of hospital accreditation concluded in 2016, the National Authority for Quality of Health Management has introduced the criteria for the implementation and application of the nursing process according to the accreditation standards. According to these requirements, the nurse has to carry out the nursing assessment, based on communication as a distinct component, so that they can identify nursing diagnoses and implement the nursing plan. In this respect, we, the teachers, have refocused, by approaching various teaching strategies and preparing students for the real context of learning and applying what they learn. In the educational process, the tutors in the hospitals have an important role to play in acquiring professional skills. Students perform their activity in the hospital in accordance with the curriculum, in order to verify the practical applicability of the theoretical knowledge acquired in the school classes and also have the opportunity to acquire their skills in a real learning context. In clinical education, the student nurse learns in the middle of a guidance team which includes a practice tutor, who is a nurse that takes responsibility for the practical/clinical learning of the students in their field of activity. In achieving this objective, the tutor's abilities involve pedagogical knowledge, knowledge for the good of the individual and nursing theory, in order to be able to guide clinical practice in accordance with current requirements. The aim of this study is to find out the students’ confidence level in practice tutors in hospitals, the students’ degree of satisfaction in the pedagogical skills of the tutors and the practical applicability of the theoretical knowledge. In this study, we used as a method of investigation a student satisfaction questionnaire regarding the clinical practice in the hospital and the sample of the survey consisted of 100 students aged between 20 and 50 years, from the first, second and third year groups, with the General Nurse specialty (nurses responsible for general care), from 'Fundeni' Healthcare Post-Secondary School, Bucharest, Romania. Following the analysis of the data provided, we arrived the conclusion that the hospital tutor needs to improve his/her pedagogical skills, the knowledge of nursing diagnostics, and the implementation of the nursing plan, so that the applicability of the theoretical notions would be increased. Future plans include the pedagogical training of the medical staff, as well as updating the knowledge needed to implement the nursing process in order to meet current requirements.

Keywords: clinical training, nursing process, pedagogical skills, tutor

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Authors: Brittany E. Coff, Tommy K. K. Ngai, Laura A. S. MacDonald

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Many organizations in the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) sector provide education and training in order to increase the effectiveness of their WASH interventions. A key challenge for these organizations is measuring how well their education and training activities contribute to WASH improvements. It is crucial for implementers to understand the returns of their education and training activities so that they can improve and make better progress toward the desired outcomes. This paper presents information on CAWST’s development and piloting of the evaluation methodology. The Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST) has developed a methodology for evaluating education and training activities, so that organizations can understand the effectiveness of their WASH activities and improve accordingly. CAWST developed this methodology through a series of research partnerships, followed by staged field pilots in Nepal, Peru, Ethiopia and Haiti. During the research partnerships, CAWST collaborated with universities in the UK and Canada to: review a range of available evaluation frameworks, investigate existing practices for evaluating education activities, and develop a draft methodology for evaluating education programs. The draft methodology was then piloted in three separate studies to evaluate CAWST’s, and CAWST’s partner’s, WASH education programs. Each of the pilot studies evaluated education programs in different locations, with different objectives, and at different times within the project cycles. The evaluations in Nepal and Peru were conducted in 2013 and investigated the outcomes and impacts of CAWST’s WASH education services in those countries over the past 5-10 years. In 2014, the methodology was applied to complete a rigorous evaluation of a 3-day WASH Awareness training program in Ethiopia, one year after the training had occurred. In 2015, the methodology was applied in Haiti to complete a rapid assessment of a Community Health Promotion program, which informed the development of an improved training program. After each pilot evaluation, the methodology was reviewed and improvements were made. A key concept within the methodology is that in order for training activities to lead to improved WASH practices at the community level, it is not enough for participants to acquire new knowledge and skills; they must also apply the new skills and influence the behavior of others following the training. The steps of the methodology include: development of a Theory of Change for the education program, application of the Kirkpatrick model to develop indicators, development of data collection tools, data collection, data analysis and interpretation, and use of the findings for improvement. The methodology was applied in different ways for each pilot and was found to be practical to apply and adapt to meet the needs of each case. It was useful in gathering specific information on the outcomes of the education and training activities, and in developing recommendations for program improvement. Based on the results of the pilot studies, CAWST is developing a set of support materials to enable other WASH implementers to apply the methodology. By using this methodology, more WASH organizations will be able to understand the outcomes and impacts of their training activities, leading to higher quality education programs and improved WASH outcomes.

Keywords: education and training, capacity building, evaluation, water and sanitation

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Authors: Sontana Mimapan, Phattarawadee Wattanasuntorn, Phanom Saijit

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Aflatoxin contamination in maize, one of several agriculture crops grown for livestock feeding, is still a problem throughout the world mainly under hot and humid weather conditions like Thailand. In this study Aspergillus flavus (A. Flavus), the key fungus for aflatoxin production especially aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), isolated from naturally infected maize were identified and characterized according to colony morphology and PCR using ITS, Beta-tubulin and calmodulin genes. The strains were analysed for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes in relation to their capability to produce AFB1, Ver1, Omt1, Nor1, and aflR. Aflatoxin production was then confirmed using immunoaffinity column technique. A loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) was applied as an innovative technique for rapid detection of target nucleic acid. The reaction condition was optimized at 65C for 60 min. and calcein flurescent reagent was added before amplification. The LAMP results showed clear differences between positive and negative reactions in end point analysis under daylight and UV light by the naked eye. In daylight, the samples with AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes developed a yellow to green color, but those without the genes retained the orange color. When excited with UV light, the positive samples become visible by bright green fluorescence. LAMP reactions were positive after addition of purified target DNA until dilutions of 10⁻⁶. The reaction products were then confirmed and visualized with 1% agarose gel electrophoresis. In this regards, 50 maize samples were collected from dairy farms and tested for the presence of four aflatoxigenic biosynthesis genes using LAMP technique. The results were positive in 18 samples (36%) but negative in 32 samples (64%). All of the samples were rechecked by PCR and the results were the same as LAMP, indicating 100% specificity. Additionally, when compared with the immunoaffinity column-based aflatoxin analysis, there was a significant correlation between LAMP results and aflatoxin analysis (r= 0.83, P < 0.05) which suggested that positive maize samples were likely to be a high- risk feed. In conclusion, the LAMP developed in this study can provide a simple and rapid approach for detecting AFB1 producing A. Flavus genes from maize and appeared to be a promising tool for the prediction of potential aflatoxigenic risk in livestock feedings.

Keywords: Aflatoxin B1, Aspergillus flavus genes, maize, loop-mediated isothermal amplification

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Authors: Aulanni’am Aulanni’am

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Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus (DM) progressively increasing it became a serious problem in Indonesia and it is a disease that government is priority to be addressed. The longer a person is suffering from diabetes the more likely to develop complications particularly diabetic patients who are not well maintained. Therefore, Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus needs to be done in the early diagnosis of pre-phase of the disease. In this pre-phase disease, already happening destruction of pancreatic beta cells and declining in beta cell function and the sign autoimmunity reactions associated with beta cell destruction. Type 1 DM is a multifactorial disease triggered by genetic and environmental factors, which leads to the destruction of pancreatic beta cells. Early marker of "beta cell autoreactivity" is the synthesis of autoantibodies against 65-kDa protein, which can be a molecule that can be detected early in the disease pathomechanism. The importance of early diagnosis of diabetic patients held in the phase of pre-disease is to determine the progression towards the onset of pancreatic beta cell destruction and take precautions. However, the price for this examination is very expensive ($ 150/ test), the anti-GAD65 abs examination cannot be carried out routinely in most or even in all laboratories in Indonesia. Therefore, production-based Rapid Test Recombinant Human Protein GAD65 with "Reverse Flow Immunchromatography Technique" in Indonesia is believed to reduce costs and improve the quality of care of patients with diabetes in Indonesia. Rapid Test Product innovation is very simple and suitable for screening and routine inspection of GAD65 autoantibodies. In the blood serum of patients with diabetes caused by autoimmunity, autoantibody-GAD65 is a major serologic marker to detect autoimmune reaction because their concentration level of stability.GAD65 autoantibodies can be found 10 years before clinical symptoms of diabetes. Early diagnosis is more focused to detect the presence autontibodi-GAD65 given specification and high sensitivity. Autoantibodies- GAD65 that circulates in the blood is a major indicator of the destruction of the islet cells of the pancreas. Results of research in collaboration with Biofarma has produced GAD65 autoantibodies based Rapid Test had conducted the soft launch of products and has been tested with the results of a sensitivity of 100 percent and a specificity between 90 and 96% compared with the gold standard (import product) which worked based on ELISA method.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus, GAD65 autoantibodies, rapid test, sensitivity, specificity

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Authors: Jigg Pelayo, Ricardo Villar, Einstine Opiso

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The rampant and unintended spread of urban areas resulted in increasing artificial component features in the land cover types of the countryside and bringing forth the urban heat island (UHI). This paved the way to wide range of negative influences on the human health and environment which commonly relates to air pollution, drought, higher energy demand, and water shortage. Land cover type also plays a relevant role in the process of understanding the interaction between ground surfaces with the local temperature. At the moment, the depiction of the land surface temperature (LST) at city/municipality scale particularly in certain areas of Misamis Oriental, Philippines is inadequate as support to efficient mitigations and adaptations of the surface urban heat island (SUHI). Thus, this study purposely attempts to provide application on the Landsat 8 satellite data and low density Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) products in mapping out quality automated LST model and crop-level land cover classification in a local scale, through theoretical and algorithm based approach utilizing the principle of data analysis subjected to multi-dimensional image object model. The paper also aims to explore the relationship between the derived LST and land cover classification. The results of the presented model showed the ability of comprehensive data analysis and GIS functionalities with the integration of object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach on automating complex maps production processes with considerable efficiency and high accuracy. The findings may potentially lead to expanded investigation of temporal dynamics of land surface UHI. It is worthwhile to note that the environmental significance of these interactions through combined application of remote sensing, geographic information tools, mathematical morphology and data analysis can provide microclimate perception, awareness and improved decision-making for land use planning and characterization at local and neighborhood scale. As a result, it can aid in facilitating problem identification, support mitigations and adaptations more efficiently.

Keywords: LiDAR, OBIA, remote sensing, local scale

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Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

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Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Authors: Lamiek Abraham, Xinli Du, Yohan Noh, Polin Hsu, Tingting Wu, Tom Logan, Ifan Yen

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In the field of minimally invasive, smart medical instruments such as catheters and guidewires are typically used at a remote distance to gain access to the diseased artery, often negotiating tortuous, complex, and diseased vessels in the process. Three optical fiber sensors with a diameter of 1.5mm each that are 120° apart from each other is proposed to be mounted into a catheter-based pump device with a diameter of 10mm. These sensors are configured to solve the challenges surgeons face during insertion through curvy major vessels such as the aortic arch. Moreover, these sensors deal with providing information on rubbing the walls and shape sensing. This study presents an experimental and mathematical models of the optical fiber sensors with 2 degrees of freedom. There are two eight gear-shaped tubes made up of 3D printed thermoplastic Polyurethane (TPU) material that are connected. The optical fiber sensors are mounted inside the first tube for protection from external light and used TPU material as a prototype for a catheter. The second tube is used as a flat reflection for the light intensity modulation-based optical fiber sensors. The first tube is attached to the linear guide for insertion and withdrawal purposes and can manually turn it 45° by manipulating the tube gear. A 3D hard material phantom was developed that mimics the aortic arch anatomy structure in which the test was carried out. During the insertion of the sensors into the 3D phantom, datasets are obtained in terms of voltage, distance, and position of the sensors. These datasets reflect the characteristics of light intensity modulation of the optical fiber sensors with a plane project of the aortic arch structure shape. Mathematical modeling of the light intensity was carried out based on the projection plane and experiment set-up. The performance of the system was evaluated in terms of its accuracy in navigating through the curvature and information on the position of the sensors by investigating 40 single insertions of the sensors into the 3D phantom. The experiment demonstrated that the sensors were effectively steered through the 3D phantom curvature and to desired target references in all 2 degrees of freedom. The performance of the sensors echoes the reflectance of light theory, where the smaller the radius of curvature, the more of the shining LED lights are reflected and received by the photodiode. A mathematical model results are in good agreement with the experiment result and the operation principle of the light intensity modulation of the optical fiber sensors. A prototype of a catheter using TPU material with three optical fiber sensors mounted inside has been developed that is capable of navigating through the different radius of curvature with 2 degrees of freedom. The proposed system supports operators with pre-scan data to make maneuverability and bendability through curvy major vessels easier, accurate, and safe. The mathematical modelling accurately fits the experiment result.

Keywords: Intensity modulated optical fiber sensor, mathematical model, plane projection, shape sensing.

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Authors: E. Didaskalou, C. Roussi-Vergou, E. Andreou, G. Skrzypiec, P. Slee

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There has been growing interest lately, in the study of victimization among adolescent students in Greece and elsewhere with a view to improve school policies concerning anti-bullying practices. Researchers have recently focused on investigating the relationships between the extent of students’ victimization and the distinct mechanisms that they employ for coping with this particular problem. In particular, the emphasis has been placed on exploring the relationship between the coping strategies students use to counteract bullying, their sense of belonging at school, and extent of their victimization. Methods: Within the research framework outlined above, we set out to: a) examine the frequency of self-reported victimization among secondary school students, b) investigate the coping strategies employed by students when confronted with school bullying and c) explore any differences between bullied and non-bullied students with regard to coping strategies and school belongingness. The sample consisted of 860 from fifteen secondary public schools in central Greece. The schools were typical Greek secondary schools and the principals volunteered to participate in this study. Participants’ age ranged from 12 to 16 years. Measures: a) Exposure to Victimization: The frequency of victimization was directly located by asking students the question: ‘Over the last term, how often have you been bullied or harassed by a student or students at this high school?’ b) Coping Strategies: The ‘Living and Learning at School: Bullying at School’ was administered to students, c) School belongingness was assessed by the Psychological Sense of School Membership Scale, that students completed. Results: Regarding the frequency of self-reported victimization, 1.5% of the students reported being victimized every day, 2.8% most days of the week, 2.1% one or more days a week, 2.9% about once a week, 22.6% less than once a week and 68.1% never. The coping strategies that the participants employed for terminating their victimization included: a) adult support seeking, b) emotional coping/keep away from school, c) keeping healthy and fit, d) demonstrating a positive attitude towards the bully, d) peer support seeking, e) emotional out bursting, f) wishful thinking and self-blaming, g) pretending as if it is not happening, h) displaying assertive behaviors and i) getting away from the bullies. Bullied from non-bullied children did not differ as much in coping, as in feelings of being rejected in school. Discussion: The findings are in accordance with accumulated research evidence which points to a strong relationship between student perceptions of school belongingness and their involvement in bullying behaviors. We agree with the view that a positive school climate is likely to serve as a buffer that mitigates wider adverse societal influences and institutional attitudes which favor violence and harassment among peers.

Keywords: school bullying, school belonging, student coping strategies, victimization

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Forensic DNA analysis has received much attention over the last three decades, due to its incredible usefulness in human identification. The statistical interpretation of DNA evidence is recognised as one of the most mature fields in forensic science. Peak heights in an Electropherogram (EPG) are approximately proportional to the amount of template DNA in the original sample being tested. A stutter is a minor peak in an EPG, which is not masking as an allele of a potential contributor, and considered as an artefact that is presumed to be arisen due to miscopying or slippage during the PCR. Stutter peaks are mostly analysed in terms of stutter ratio that is calculated relative to the corresponding parent allele height. Analysis of mixture profiles has always been problematic in evidence interpretation, especially with the presence of PCR artefacts like stutters. Unlike binary and semi-continuous models; continuous models assign a probability (as a continuous weight) for each possible genotype combination, and significantly enhances the use of continuous peak height information resulting in more efficient reliable interpretations. Therefore, the presence of a sound methodology to distinguish between stutters and real alleles is essential for the accuracy of the interpretation. Sensibly, any such method has to be able to focus on modelling stutter peaks. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide increased flexibility in applied statistical modelling. Mixture models are frequently employed as fundamental data analysis tools in clustering and classification of data and assume unidentified heterogeneous sources for data. In model-based clustering, each unknown source is reflected by a cluster, and the clusters are modelled using parametric models. Specifying the number of components in finite mixture models, however, is practically difficult even though the calculations are relatively simple. Infinite mixture models, in contrast, do not require the user to specify the number of components. Instead, a Dirichlet process, which is an infinite-dimensional generalization of the Dirichlet distribution, is used to deal with the problem of a number of components. Chinese restaurant process (CRP), Stick-breaking process and Pólya urn scheme are frequently used as Dirichlet priors in Bayesian mixture models. In this study, we illustrate an infinite mixture of simple linear regression models for modelling stutter ratio and introduce some modifications to overcome weaknesses associated with CRP.

Keywords: Chinese restaurant process, Dirichlet prior, infinite mixture model, PCR stutter

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises

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Authors: Jayathilake Wijethunga B. G. Mudiyanselage, Jeewantha Ranawaka, Nirosha Lansakara

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Introduction: Women imprisonment is rising in the world. Imprisoned women have more psychological problems and more adverse childhood experiences than the general population. Female prisoners who had psychological problems had more adverse childhood experiences than the prisoners who did not have psychological problems. Most of the imprisoned women are mothers. Mothers are the principal carer for the children. The psychological status of imprisoned female is worth seeking along with its associates since this is a group of women who need others assistance to make their life adjusted. Any intervention that could uplift their psychological wellbeing would make their life better if they are to be released out of the prison. Since there are no studies done in Sri Lanka to study the imprisoned women psychological wellbeing and their childhood experiences, it is important to study on this to find the magnitude of the problem in Sri Lanka. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study was done at the Welikada Prison, Colombo, among the imprisoned women. 273 imprisoned women were selected using simple random sampling technique. Using interviewer administered questionnaire 270 women were interviewed. Three women did not consent for the study. Frequencies of the selected socio demographic characteristics and selected childhood experiences calculated. GHQ 30 questionnaire was used to assess the psychological distress. Odds ratio was used to calculate the associations between the psychological distress and the selected socio demographic characteristics, selected childhood experiences. Results: Response rate was 98.9%. Mean age of the imprisoned women were 41.28years (SD ±11.86yrs) and Most of women were within the age group of 35-49 years (38.1%). Of them 68.5% were currently married and majority had at least one child. (86.3%). House hold member’s smoking (58.5%) and alcohol (40.4%) use was the commonest adverse childhood experience experienced by the imprisoned women. Nearly one fourth (22.6%) of the imprisoned women had attempted suicide during their life and more than half (55.7%) of them had attempted before the age of 18 years. Similarly of the 258 women who had been sexually active during their life, half (50.0%) of the women had exposed to sexual activities during first eighteen years of life and mean age at first sexual exposure was 19.2 (SD±4.86) years. Nearly three forth (73.7%) of imprisoned women were psychologically distressed in the study sample. Being a women of aged less than 25 years((OR=4.51, 95% CI=1.035-19.64)),previous history of suicidal attempts(OR=2.10,95%CI =1.00-4.41), not having enough foods to eat( OR=2.97, 1.009-8.75) and absence of someone to tell worries (OR=0.355, 95% CI =0.113-0.945) during childhood were significantly associate with psychological distress. Conclusion: Nearly three forth of the imprisoned women were psychologically distressed and younger age, history of suicidal attempts, the absence of someone to tell their worries and not having enough food to eat during childhood were risk factors for psychological distress. Recommendation: Need to strengthen the rehabilitation and mental health services to the imprisoned women.

Keywords: adverse childhood experiences, imprisoned women, psychological distress, prisoners

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Authors: Francesco Saverio Angiò

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The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant / Syria (ISIL/S), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad, also known as ‘Boko Haram’ (BH), have fought successfully against Syria and Iraq, Mali, Nigeria’s government, respectively. According to Napoleoni, the ‘shell-state’ concept can explain the economic dimension and the financing model of the ISIL insurgency. However, she argues that AQIM and BH did not properly plan their financial model. Consequently, her idea would not be suitable to these groups. Nevertheless, AQIM and BH’s economic performances and their (short) territorialisation suggest that their financing models respond to a well-defined strategy, which they were able to adapt to new circumstances. Therefore, Napoleoni’s idea of ‘shell-state’ can be applied to the three jihadist armed groups. In the last five years, together with other similar entities, ISIL/S, AQIM and BH have been fighting against governments with insurgent tactics and terrorism acts, conquering and ruling a quasi-state; a physical space they presented as legitimate territorial entity, thanks to a puritan version of the Islamic law. In these territories, they have exploited the traditional local economic networks. In addition, they have contributed to the development of legal and illegal transnational business activities. They have also established a justice system and created an administrative structure to supply services. Napoleoni’s ‘shell-state’ can describe the evolution of ISIL/S, AQIM and BH, which has switched from an insurgency to a proto or a quasi-state entity, enjoying a significant share of power over territories and populations. Napoleoni first developed and applied the ‘Shell-state’ concept to describe the nature of groups such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), before using it to explain the expansion of ISIL. However, her original conceptualisation emphasises on the economic dimension of the rise of the insurgency, focusing on the ‘business’ model and the insurgents’ financing management skills, which permits them to turn into an organisation. However, the idea of groups which use, coordinate and grab some territorial economic activities (at the same time, encouraging new criminal ones), can also be applied to administrative, social, infrastructural, legal and military levels of their insurgency, since they contribute to transform the insurgency to the same extent the economic dimension does. In addition, according to Napoleoni’s view, the ‘shell-state’ prism is valid to understand the ISIL/S phenomenon, because the group has carefully planned their financial steps. Napoleoni affirmed that ISIL/S carries out activities in order to promote their conversion from a group relying on external sponsors to an entity that can penetrate and condition local economies. On the contrary, ‘shell-state’ could not be applied to AQIM or BH, which are acting more like smugglers. Nevertheless, despite its failure to control territories, as ISIL has been able to do, AQIM and BH have responded strategically to their economic circumstances and have defined specific dynamics to ensure a flow of stable funds. Therefore, Napoleoni’s theory is applicable.

Keywords: shell-state, jihadist insurgency, proto or quasi-state entity economic planning, strategic financing

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Authors: Thomas Rowan, Mohammed Seaid

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A fast finite volume solver for multi-layered shallow water flows with mass exchange and an erodible bed is developed. This enables the user to solve a number of complex sediment-based problems including (but not limited to), dam-break over an erodible bed, recirculation currents and bed evolution as well as levy and dyke failure. This research develops methodologies crucial to the under-standing of multi-sediment fluvial mechanics and waterway design. In this model mass exchange between the layers is allowed and, in contrast to previous models, sediment and fluid are able to transfer between layers. In the current study we use a two-step finite volume method to avoid the solution of the Riemann problem. Entrainment and deposition rates are calculated for the first time in a model of this nature. In the first step the governing equations are rewritten in a non-conservative form and the intermediate solutions are calculated using the method of characteristics. In the second stage, the numerical fluxes are reconstructed in conservative form and are used to calculate a solution that satisfies the conservation property. This method is found to be considerably faster than other comparative finite volume methods, it also exhibits good shock capturing. For most entrainment and deposition equations a bed level concentration factor is used. This leads to inaccuracies in both near bed level concentration and total scour. To account for diffusion, as no vertical velocities are calculated, a capacity limited diffusion coefficient is used. The additional advantage of this multilayer approach is that there is a variation (from single layer models) in bottom layer fluid velocity: this dramatically reduces erosion, which is often overestimated in simulations of this nature using single layer flows. The model is used to simulate a standard dam break. In the dam break simulation, as expected, the number of fluid layers utilised creates variation in the resultant bed profile, with more layers offering a higher deviation in fluid velocity . These results showed a marked variation in erosion profiles from standard models. The overall the model provides new insight into the problems presented at minimal computational cost.

Keywords: erosion, finite volume method, sediment transport, shallow water equations

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Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

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Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

Abstract:

Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

Procedia PDF Downloads 350

Authors: Sawyer Spurry

Abstract:

Problem: Palliative care providers at an academic medical center in Maryland stated medical intensive care unit (MICU) patients are often referred late in their hospital stay. The MICU has performed well below the hospital quality performance metric of 80% of patients who expire with expected outcomes should have received a palliative care consult within 48 hours of admission. Purpose: The purpose of this quality improvement (QI) project is to increase palliative care utilization in the MICU through the implementation of a Nurse-Driven PalliativeTriggerTool to prompt the need for specialty palliative care consult. Methods: MICU nursing staff and providers received education concerning the implications of underused palliative care services and the literature data supporting the use of nurse-driven palliative care tools as a means of increasing utilization of palliative care. A MICU population specific criteria of palliative triggers (Palliative Care Trigger Tool) was formulated by the QI implementation team, palliative care team, and patient care services department. Nursing staff were asked to assess patients daily for the presence of palliative triggers using the Palliative Care Trigger Tool and present findings during bedside rounds. MICU providers were asked to consult palliative medicinegiven the presence of palliative triggers; following interdisciplinary rounds. Rates of palliative consult, given the presence of triggers, were collected via electronic medical record e-data pull, de-identified, and recorded in the data collection tool. Preliminary Results: Over 140 MICU registered nurses were educated on the palliative trigger initiative along with 8 nurse practitioners, 4 intensivists, 2 pulmonary critical care fellows, and 2 palliative medicine physicians. Over 200 patients were admitted to the MICU and screened for palliative triggers during the 15-week implementation period. Primary outcomes showed an increase in palliative care consult rates to those patients presenting with triggers, a decreased mean time from admission to palliative consult, and increased recognition of unmet palliative care needs by MICU nurses and providers. Conclusions: Anticipatory findings of this QI project would suggest a positive correlation between utilizing palliative care trigger criteria and decreased time to palliative care consult. The direct outcomes of effective palliative care results in decreased length of stay, healthcare costs, and moral distress, as well as improved symptom management and quality of life (QOL).

Keywords: palliative care, nursing, quality improvement, trigger tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 194