Search results for: lead time variability

Authors: Elisa Orofino

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Islamism is a very debated topic in the West but almost exclusively explored in its violent forms. Nevertheless, a number of “vocal radical Islamist” groups exist in the West and legally operate because of their non-violent nature. Vocal radicals continually inspire individuals and lead them towards specific goals and priorities, sometimes even towards violence. This paper uses the long-living group Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) to explore the elements that make the organization appealing to segments of Muslim community in the West. This paper uses three agency variables - reflexive monitoring, the rationalization of action and the motivations for actions – to analyze HT’s appeal vis-à-vis two other Islamist groups, Ikhwan al-Muslimun and Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), having similar goals and the same high international profile. This paper concludes that HT’s uniqueness is given by its method, detailed vision of the caliphate, consistency over time and the emphasis placed on the caliphate as the leading force of HT’s unchanged motivation for action.

Keywords: agency, caliphate, Islamist groups, radicalization, vocal radicals

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Authors: Anette Forssten Seiser, Ulf Blossing, Mats Ekholm

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The expectation on principals to manage, lead and develop their schools and teachers are high. However, principals are not left alone without guidelines. Policy texts, curricula and syllabuses guide the orientation of their leadership. Moreover, principals’ traits and experience as well as professional norms, are decisive. However, in this study we argue for the importance to deepen the knowledge of how the practice of leadership is shaped in the daily social working life with the teachers at the school. Teachers’ experiences and expectations of leadership influence the principal’s actions, sometimes perhaps contrary to what is emphasized in official texts like the central guidelines. The expectations of teachers make up the norms of the school and thus constitute the local school culture. The aim of this study is to deepen the knowledge of teachers’ expectations on their principals to manage, lead and develop their schools. Two questions are used to guide the study: 1) How do teachers’ and principals’ expectations differ in realistic situations? 2) How do teachers’ experience-based expectations differ from more ideal expectations? To investigate teachers’ expectations of their principals, we use a social psychological perspective framed within an organisational development perspective. A social role is defined by the fact that, within the framework of the role, different people who fulfil the same role exhibit greater similarities than differences in their actions. The way a social role is exercised depends on the expectations placed on the role’s position but also on the expectations of the function of the role. The way in which the social role is embodied in practice also depends on how the person fulfilling the role perceives and understands those expectations. Based on interviews with school principals a questionnaire was constructed. Nine possible real-life and critical incidents were described that are important when it comes to role shaping in the dynamics between teachers and principals. Teachers were asked to make a choice between three, four, or five possible and realistic courses of action for the principal. The teachers were also asked to make two choices between these different options in real-life situations, one ideal as if they were working as a principal themselves, and one experience based – how they estimated that their own principal would act in such a situation. The sample consist of two elementary schools in Sweden. School A consists of two principals and 38 teachers and school B of two principals and 22 teachers. The response rate among the teachers is 95 percent in school A and 86 percent in school B. All four principals answered our questions. The results show that the expectations of teachers and principals can be understood as variations of being harmonic or disharmonic. The harmonic expectations can be interpreted to lead to an attuned leadership, while the disharmonic expectations lead to a more tensed leadership. Harmonious expectations and an attuned leadership are prominent. The results are compared to earlier research on leadership. Attuned and more tensed leadership are discussed in relation to school development and future research.

Keywords: critical incidents, principal leadership, school culture, school development, teachers' expectations

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Authors: Mustapha Yakubu, Ahmed Usman, Hashim Ambursa

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This paper presents the findings of a research which sought to investigate techniques used to improve cost and time control of construction projects management practice in Nigeria. However, there is limited research on issues surrounding the practical usage of these techniques. Data were collected through a questionnaire distributed to construction experts through a survey conducted on the 100 construction organisations and 50 construction consultancy firms in the Nigeria aimed at identifying common project cost and time control practices and factors inhibiting effective project control in practice. The study reveals that despite the vast application of control techniques a high proportion of respondents still experienced cost and time overruns on a significant proportion of their projects. Analysis of the survey results concluded that more effort should be geared at the management of the identified top project control inhibiting factors. This paper has outlined some measures for mitigating these inhibiting factors so that the outcome of project time and cost control can be improved in practice.

Keywords: construction project, cost control, Nigeria, time control

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Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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Authors: Ruolan Zhang, Ryo Imai, Naoko Senda, Tomoyuki Sakai

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Enzymes have attracted increasing attentions in industrial manufacturing for their applicability in catalyzing complex chemical reactions under mild conditions. Directed evolution has become a powerful approach to optimize enzymes and exploit their full potentials under the circumstance of insufficient structure-function knowledge. With the incorporation of cell-free synthetic biotechnology, rapid enzyme synthesis can be realized because no cloning procedure such as transfection is needed. Its open environment also enables direct enzyme measurement. These properties of cell-free biotechnology lead to excellent throughput of enzymes generation. However, the capabilities of current screening methods have limitations. Fluorescence-based assay needs applicable fluorescent label, and the reliability of acquired enzymatic activity is influenced by fluorescent label’s binding affinity and photostability. To acquire the natural activity of an enzyme, another method is to combine pre-screening step and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) measurement. But its throughput is limited by necessary time investment. Hundreds of variants are selected from libraries, and their enzymatic activities are then identified one by one by HPLC. The turn-around-time is 30 minutes for one sample by HPLC, which limits the acquirable enzyme improvement within reasonable time. To achieve the real high-throughput enzyme screening, i.e., obtain reliable enzyme improvement within reasonable time, a widely applicable high-throughput measurement of enzymatic reactions is highly demanded. Here, a high-throughput screening method using broadband coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) was proposed. CARS is one of coherent Raman spectroscopy, which can identify label-free chemical components specifically from their inherent molecular vibration. These characteristic vibrational signals are generated from different vibrational modes of chemical bonds. With the broadband CARS, chemicals in one sample can be identified from their signals in one broadband CARS spectrum. Moreover, it can magnify the signal levels to several orders of magnitude greater than spontaneous Raman systems, and therefore has the potential to evaluate chemical's concentration rapidly. As a demonstration of screening with CARS, alcohol dehydrogenase, which converts ethanol and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide oxidized form (NAD+) to acetaldehyde and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide reduced form (NADH), was used. The signal of NADH at 1660 cm⁻¹, which is generated from nicotinamide in NADH, was utilized to measure the concentration of it. The evaluation time for CARS signal of NADH was determined to be as short as 0.33 seconds while having a system sensitivity of 2.5 mM. The time course of alcohol dehydrogenase reaction was successfully measured from increasing signal intensity of NADH. This measurement result of CARS was consistent with the result of a conventional method, UV-Vis. CARS is expected to have application in high-throughput enzyme screening and realize more reliable enzyme improvement within reasonable time.

Keywords: Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Spectroscopy, CARS, directed evolution, enzyme screening, Raman spectroscopy

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Authors: Tawanda Mushiri, Charles Mbohwa

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The performance of door assembly is very significant for the vehicle design. In the present paper, the finite element method is used in the development processes of the door assembly. The stiffness, strength, modal characteristic, and anti-extrusion of a newly developed passenger vehicle door assembly are calculated and evaluated by several finite element analysis commercial software. The structural problems discovered by FE analysis have been modified and finally achieved the expected door structure performance target of this new vehicle. The issue in focus is to predict the performance of the door assembly by powerful finite element analysis software, and optimize the structure to meet the design targets. It is observed that this method can be used to forecast the performance of vehicle door efficiently when it’s designed. In order to reduce lead time and cost in the product development of vehicles more development will be made virtually.

Keywords: vehicle door, structure, strength, stiffness, modal characteristic, anti-extrusion, Finite Element Method

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Authors: Maike Andresen, Georg Dochtmann

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Due to political, social, and societal changes in labor organization, top-sharing, defined as job-sharing in leading positions, becomes more important in HRM. German companies are looking for practical and economically meaningful solutions that allow to enduringly increase women’s ratio in management, not only because of a recently implemented quota. Furthermore, supporting employees in achieving work-life balance is perceived as an important goal for a sustainable HRM to gain competitive advantage. Top-sharing is seen as being suitable to reach both goals. To evaluate determinants leading to effective top-sharing, a case study of a newly implemented top-sharing tandem in a large German enterprise was conducted over a period of 15 months. In this company, a full leadership position was split into two 60%-part-time positions held by an experienced female leader in her late career and a female college who took over her first leadership position (mid-career). We assumed a person-person fit in terms of a match of the top sharing partners’ personality profiles (Big Five) and their leadership motivations to be important prerequisites for an effective collaboration between them. We evaluated the person-person fit variables once before the tandem started to work. Both leaders were expected to learn from each other (mentoring, competency development). On an operational level, they were supposed to lead together the same employees in an effective manner (leader-member exchange), presupposing an effective cooperation between both (handing over information). To see developments over time, these processes were evaluated three times over the span of the project. Top-Sharing and the underlined processes are expected to positively influence the tandem’s performance which has been evaluated twice, at the beginning and the end of the project, to assess its development over time as well. The evaluation of the personality and the basic motives suggests that both executives can be a successful top-sharing tandem. The competency evaluations (supervisor as well as self-assessment) increased over the time span. Although the top sharing tandem worked on equal terms, they implemented rather classical than peer-mentoring due to different career ambitions of the tandem partners. Thus, opportunities were not used completely. Team-member exchange scores proved the good cooperation between the top-sharers. Although the employees did not evaluate the leader-member-exchange between them and the two leaders of the tandem homogeneously, the top-sharing tandem itself did not have the impression that the employees’ task performance depended on whom of the tandem was responsible for the task. Furthermore, top-sharing did not negatively influence the performance of both leaders. During qualitative interviews with the top-sharers and their team, we found that the top-sharers could focus more easily on their tasks. The results suggest positive outcomes of top-sharing (e.g. competency improvement, learning from each other through mentoring). Top-Sharing does not hamper performance. Thus, further research and practical implementations are suggested. As part-time jobs are still more often a female solution to increase their work-life- and work-family-balance, top-sharing may be a suitable solution to increase the woman’s ratio in leadership positions as well as to sustainable increase work-life-balance of executives.

Keywords: mentoring, part-time leadership, top-sharing, work-life-balance

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Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Maya Yamashita, Kyoko Saito

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In general, dynamic SPECT data acquisition needs a few minutes for one rotation. Thus, the time-activity curve (TAC) derived from the dynamic SPECT is relatively coarse. In order to effectively shorten the interval, between data points, we adopted a 180-degree interpolation method. This method is already used for reconstruction of the X-ray CT data. In this study, we applied this 180-degree interpolation method to SPECT and investigated its effectiveness.To briefly describe the 180-degree interpolation method: the 180-degree data in the second half of one rotation are combined with the 180-degree data in the first half of the next rotation to generate a 360-degree data set appropriate for the time halfway between the first and second rotations. In both a phantom and a patient study, the data points from the interpolated images fell in good agreement with the data points tracking the accumulation of 99mTc activity over time for appropriate region of interest. We conclude that data derived from interpolated images improves the apparent time resolution of dynamic SPECT.

Keywords: dynamic SPECT, time resolution, 180-degree interpolation method, 99mTc-GSA.

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Authors: Jessica Gu, Yu Chen

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Knowledge Management (KM) is undoubtable crucial to organizational value creation, learning, and adaptation. Although the rapidly growing KM domain has been fueled with full-fledged methodologies and technologies, studies on KM evolution that bridge the organizational performance and adaptation to the organizational environment are still rarely attempted. In particular, creation (or generation) and diffusion (or share/exchange) of knowledge are of the organizational primary concerns on the problem-solving perspective, however, the optimized distribution of knowledge creation and diffusion endeavors are still unknown to knowledge workers. This research proposed an agent-based model of knowledge creation and diffusion in an organization, aiming at elucidating how the intertwining knowledge flows at microscopic level lead to optimized organizational performance at macroscopic level through evolution, and exploring what exogenous interventions by the policy maker and endogenous adjustments of the knowledge workers can better cope with different environmental conditions. With the developed model, a series of simulation experiments are conducted. Both long-term steady-state and time-dependent developmental results on organizational performance, network and structure, social interaction and learning among individuals, knowledge audit and stocktaking, and the likelihood of choosing knowledge creation and diffusion by the knowledge workers are obtained. One of the interesting findings reveals a non-monotonic phenomenon on organizational performance under turbulent environment while a monotonic phenomenon on organizational performance under a stable environment. Hence, whether the environmental condition is turbulence or stable, the most suitable exogenous KM policy and endogenous knowledge creation and diffusion choice adjustments can be identified for achieving the optimized organizational performance. Additional influential variables are further discussed and future work directions are finally elaborated. The proposed agent-based model generates evidence on how knowledge worker strategically allocates efforts on knowledge creation and diffusion, how the bottom-up interactions among individuals lead to emerged structure and optimized performance, and how environmental conditions bring in challenges to the organization system. Meanwhile, it serves as a roadmap and offers great macro and long-term insights to policy makers without interrupting the real organizational operation, sacrificing huge overhead cost, or introducing undesired panic to employees.

Keywords: knowledge creation, knowledge diffusion, agent-based modeling, organizational performance, decision making evolution

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Authors: Jimeng Shi, Mahek Jain, Giri Narasimhan

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Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed-length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models changes as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based Transformer models, which have had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (RNN, LSTM, GRU, and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the UCI website, which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean Average Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Keywords: air quality prediction, deep learning algorithms, time series forecasting, look-back window

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Authors: Dejenie Birile Gemeda, Wilhelm Stork

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The power system is one of the most important systems in modern society. The existing power system is approaching the critical operating limits as views of several power system operators. With the increase of load demand, high capacity and long transmission networks are widely used to meet the requirement. With the integration of renewable energies such as wind and solar, the uncertainty, intermittence bring bigger challenges to the operation of power systems. These dynamic uncertainties in the power system lead to power disturbances. The disturbances in a heavily stressed power system cause distance relays to mal-operation or false alarms during post fault power oscillations. This unintended operation of these relays may propagate and trigger cascaded trappings leading to total power system blackout. This is due to relays inability to take an appropriate tripping decision based on ensuing power swing. According to the N-1 criterion, electric power systems are generally designed to withstand a single failure without causing the violation of any operating limit. As a result, some overloaded components such as overhead transmission lines can still work for several hours under overload conditions. However, when a large power swing happens in the power system, the settings of the distance relay of zone 3 may trip the transmission line with a short time delay, and they will be acting so quickly that the system operator has no time to respond and stop the cascading. Misfiring of relays in absence of fault due to power swing may have a significant loss in economic performance, thus a loss in revenue for power companies. This research paper proposes a method to distinguish stable power swing from unstable using dynamic line rating (DLR) in response to power swing or disturbances. As opposed to static line rating (SLR), dynamic line rating support effective mitigation actions against propagating cascading outages in a power grid. Effective utilization of existing transmission lines capacity using machine learning DLR predictions will improve the operating point of distance relay protection, thus reducing unintended power outages due to power swing.

Keywords: blackout, cascading outages, dynamic line rating, power swing, overhead transmission lines

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Authors: Naraporn Taemaitree, Pruet Areesawangvong, Satchachon Changthom, Tanin Titipungul

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Adult intussusception, unlike childhood intussusception, is rare. Approximately 5-15% of cases are idiopathic without a lead point lesion. Secondary intussusception is caused by pathological conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease, postoperative adhesions, Meckel’s diverticulum, benign and malignant lesions, metastatic neoplasms, or even iatrogenically due to the presence of intestinal tubes, jejunostomy feeding tubes or after gastric surgery. Diagnosis can be delayed because of its longstanding, intermittent, and non-specific symptoms. Computed tomography is the most sensitive diagnostic modality and can help distinguish between intussusceptions with and without a lead point and lesion localization. This report presents the case of a 49-year-old man presented with increasing abdominal pain over the past three days, loss of appetite, constipation, and frequent vomiting. Computed tomography revealed distal small bowel obstruction at the right lower quadrant with thickened outer wall and internal non-dilated small bowel loop. Emergency exploratory laparotomy was performed to clear the obstruction, which upon inspection was caused by extremely long Taenia solium parasites.

Keywords: intussusception, tape worm, Taenia solium, abdominal pain

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Authors: Ortiz M. Rocío, Rocha G. Karina, Domenech A. Gloria

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There are several tools to assess the nutritional status of the population. A main instrument commonly used to build those tools is the food composition tables (FCT). Despite the importance of FCT, there are many error sources and variability factors that can be presented on building those tables and can lead to an under or over estimation of ingest of nutrients of a population. This work identified different food composition tables used as an instrument to estimate the nutrient ingest in Ecuador.The collection of data for choosing FCT was made through key informants –self completed questionnaires-, supplemented with institutional web research. A questionnaire with general variables (origin, year of edition, etc) and methodological variables (method of elaboration, information of the table, etc) was passed to the identified FCT. Those variables were defined based on an extensive literature review. A descriptive analysis of content was performed. Ten printed tables and three databases were reported which were all indistinctly treated as food composition tables. We managed to get information from 69% of the references. Several informants referred to printed documents that were not accessible. In addition, searching the internet was not successful. Of the 9 final tables, n=8 are from Latin America, and, n= 5 of these were constructed by indirect method (collection of already published data) having as a main source of information a database from the United States department of agriculture USDA. One FCT was constructed by using direct method (bromatological analysis) and has its origin in Ecuador. The 100% of the tables made a clear distinction of the food and its method of cooking, 88% of FCT expressed values of nutrients per 100g of edible portion, 77% gave precise additional information about the use of the table, and 55% presented all the macro and micro nutrients on a detailed way. The more complete FCT were: INCAP (Central America), Composition of foods (Mexico). The more referred table was: Ecuadorian food composition table of 1965 (70%). The indirect method was used for most tables within this study. However, this method has the disadvantage that it generates less reliable food composition tables because foods show variations in composition. Therefore, a database cannot accurately predict the composition of any isolated sample of a food product.In conclusion, analyzing the pros and cons, and, despite being a FCT elaborated by using an indirect method, it is considered appropriate to work with the FCT of INCAP Central America, given the proximity to our country and a food items list that is very similar to ours. Also, it is imperative to have as a reference the table of composition for Ecuadorian food, which, although is not updated, was constructed using the direct method with Ecuadorian foods. Hence, both tables will be used to elaborate a questionnaire with the purpose of assessing the food consumption of the Ecuadorian population. In case of having disparate values, we will proceed by taking just the INCAP values because this is an updated table.

Keywords: Ecuadorian food composition tables, FCT elaborated by direct method, ingest of nutrients of Ecuadorians, Latin America food composition tables

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Authors: Guilherme Giacomini, Ana Luiza Menegatti Pavan, Allan Felipe Fattori Alves, Marcela de Oliveira, Fernando Antonio Bacchim Neto, José Ricardo de Arruda Miranda, Seizo Yamashita, Diana Rodrigues de Pina

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The maxillary sinus (MS), part of the paranasal sinus complex, is one of the most enigmatic structures in modern humans. The literature has suggested that MSs function as olfaction accessories, to heat or humidify inspired air, for thermoregulation, to impart resonance to the voice and others. Thus, the real function of the MS is still uncertain. Furthermore, the MS anatomy is complex and varies from person to person. Many diseases may affect the development process of sinuses. The incidence of rhinosinusitis and other pathoses in the MS is comparatively high, so, volume analysis has clinical value. Providing volume values for MS could be helpful in evaluating the presence of any abnormality and could be used for treatment planning and evaluation of the outcome. The computed tomography (CT) has allowed a more exact assessment of this structure, which enables a quantitative analysis. However, this is not always possible in the clinical routine, and if possible, it involves much effort and/or time. Therefore, it is necessary to have a convenient, robust, and practical tool correlated with the MS volume, allowing clinical applicability. Nowadays, the available methods for MS segmentation are manual or semi-automatic. Additionally, manual methods present inter and intraindividual variability. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop an automatic tool to quantity the MS volume in CT scans of paranasal sinuses. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels. The research involved 30 retrospective exams of University Hospital, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, Brazil. The tool for automatic MS quantification, developed in Matlab®, uses a hybrid method, combining different image processing techniques. For MS detection, the algorithm uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM), by features such as pixel value, spatial distribution, shape and others. The detected pixels are used as seed point for a region growing (RG) segmentation. Then, morphological operators are applied to reduce false-positive pixels, improving the segmentation accuracy. These steps are applied in all slices of CT exam, obtaining the MS volume. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed tool, the automatic method was compared with manual segmentation realized by an experienced radiologist. For comparison, we used Bland-Altman statistics, linear regression, and Jaccard similarity coefficient. From the statistical analyses for the comparison between both methods, the linear regression showed a strong association and low dispersion between variables. The Bland–Altman analyses showed no significant differences between the analyzed methods. The Jaccard similarity coefficient was > 0.90 in all exams. In conclusion, the developed tool to quantify MS volume proved to be robust, fast, and efficient, when compared with manual segmentation. Furthermore, it avoids the intra and inter-observer variations caused by manual and semi-automatic methods. As future work, the tool will be applied in clinical practice. Thus, it may be useful in the diagnosis and treatment determination of MS diseases. Providing volume values for MS could be helpful in evaluating the presence of any abnormality and could be used for treatment planning and evaluation of the outcome. The computed tomography (CT) has allowed a more exact assessment of this structure which enables a quantitative analysis. However, this is not always possible in the clinical routine, and if possible, it involves much effort and/or time. Therefore, it is necessary to have a convenient, robust and practical tool correlated with the MS volume, allowing clinical applicability. Nowadays, the available methods for MS segmentation are manual or semi-automatic. Additionally, manual methods present inter and intraindividual variability. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop an automatic tool to quantity the MS volume in CT scans of paranasal sinuses. This study was developed with ethical approval from the authors’ institutions and national review panels. The research involved 30 retrospective exams of University Hospital, Botucatu Medical School, São Paulo State University, Brazil. The tool for automatic MS quantification, developed in Matlab®, uses a hybrid method, combining different image processing techniques. For MS detection, the algorithm uses a Support Vector Machine (SVM), by features such as pixel value, spatial distribution, shape and others. The detected pixels are used as seed point for a region growing (RG) segmentation. Then, morphological operators are applied to reduce false-positive pixels, improving the segmentation accuracy. These steps are applied in all slices of CT exam, obtaining the MS volume. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed tool, the automatic method was compared with manual segmentation realized by an experienced radiologist. For comparison, we used Bland-Altman statistics, linear regression and Jaccard similarity coefficient. From the statistical analyses for the comparison between both methods, the linear regression showed a strong association and low dispersion between variables. The Bland–Altman analyses showed no significant differences between the analyzed methods. The Jaccard similarity coefficient was > 0.90 in all exams. In conclusion, the developed tool to automatically quantify MS volume proved to be robust, fast and efficient, when compared with manual segmentation. Furthermore, it avoids the intra and inter-observer variations caused by manual and semi-automatic methods. As future work, the tool will be applied in clinical practice. Thus, it may be useful in the diagnosis and treatment determination of MS diseases.

Keywords: maxillary sinus, support vector machine, region growing, volume quantification

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Authors: Omnia Abd Elghany Zaki Mohamed Mahmoud

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The ancient Egyptian used the stars to measure time or in a more precise sense as one of the astronomical means of measuring time. These methods differed throughout the historical ages. They began with simple observations of observing astronomical phenomena and watching them, such as observing the movements of the stars in the sky. The year, to know the days, nights, and other means used to help set the time when the sky overcast, and so the researcher tries through archaeological evidence to demonstrate the knowledge of the ancient Egyptian stars of heaven, and movements through the first pre-history. It is not believed that the astronomical information possessed by the Egyptian was limited, and simple, it was reaching a level of almost optimal in terms of importance, and the goal he wanted to reach the ancient Egyptian, and also help him to know the time, and the passage of time; which ended in finally trying to find a system of timing and calculation of time. It was noted that there were signs that the stellar creed was known, and prosperous, especially since the pre-family ages, and this is evident on the inscriptions that come back to that period. The Egyptian realized that some of the stars remain visible at night, The ancient Egyptian was familiar with the daily journey of the stars. This is what was adopted in many paragraphs of the texts of the pyramids, and its references to the rise of the deceased king of the heavenly world between the stars of the eternal sky. It was noted that the ancient Egyptian link between the doctrine of the star, it find that the public The lunar was known to the ancient Egyptian, and sang it for two years: and the stellar solar; but it was based on the appearance of the star Sirius, and this is the first means used to measure time, and know the calendar stars.

Keywords: archaeology, astronomical panels, ancient Egypt, Egyptian

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Seyed Mohammad Nasir Mousavi, Amir Mashayekh, Pasha Hejazi, Sanaz Kanani Zadeh Khalkhali

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To determine the stability of the oil percent canola varieties, an experiment was done in a randomized complete block design with four replications in four research stations of the country Shahrood, Esfahan, Kermanshah, Varamin. Analysis of variance showed that there is cultivars considerable variability in the percentage of oil. The results showed that the coefficient of variation of oil Hyola 401 and Hyola308 stability and flexibility are high. Cultivars Cooper and Likord are minimum variance Shukla that stable for the percentage of oil Based on the chart AMMI 1, cultivars Zarfam and Hyola 401 are of oil percentage than other varieties had higher stability. On the chart AMMI2, cultivars Karun and Hyola 308 are identified as stable, also location Isfahan is stable

Keywords: canola, stability, AMMI, variance Shukla

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Authors: Angélique Laurent, Marie-Josée Letarte, Jean-Pascal Lemelin, Marie-France Morin

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This study aims at exploring teacher-child interactions within learning contexts in public prekindergartens of the province of Québec (Canada). It is based on previous research showing that teacher-child interactions in preschools have direct and determining effects on the quality of early childhood education and could directly or indirectly influence child development. However, throughout a typical preschool day, children experience different learning contexts to promote their learning opportunities. Depending on these specific contexts, teacher-child interactions could vary, for example, between free play and shared book reading. Indeed, some studies have found that teacher-directed or child-directed contexts might lead to significant variations in teacher-child interactions. This study drew upon both the bioecological and the Teaching Through Interactions frameworks. It was conducted through a descriptive and correlational design. Fifteen teachers were recruited to participate in the study. At Time 1 in October, they completed a diary to report the learning contexts they proposed in their classroom during a typical week. At Time 2, seven months later (May), they were videotaped three times in the morning (two weeks’ time between each recording) during a typical morning class. The quality of teacher-child interactions was then coded with the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS) through the contexts identified. This tool measures three main domains of interactions: emotional support, classroom organization, and instruction support, and10 dimensions scored on a scale from 1 (low quality) to 7 (high quality). Based on the teachers’ reports, five learning contexts were identified: 1) shared book reading, 2) free play, 3) morning meeting, 4) teacher-directed activity (such as craft), and 5) snack. Based on preliminary statistical analyses, little variation was observed within the learning contexts for each domain of the CLASS. However, the instructional support domain showed lower scores during specific learning contexts, specifically free play and teacher-directed activity. Practical implications for how preschool teachers could foster specific domains of interactions depending on learning contexts to enhance children’s social and academic development will be discussed.

Keywords: teacher practices, teacher-child interactions, preschool education, learning contexts, child development

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

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This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Anjali N. Shete, G. D. Mahajan, Nanda Somwanshi

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Context: Smartphones are the new generation of mobile phones; they have emerged over the last few years. Technology has developed so much that it has become part of our life and mobile phones are one of them. These smartphones are equipped with the capabilities to display photos, play games, watch videos and navigation, etc. The advances have a huge impact on many walks of life. The adoption of new technology has been challenging for the elderly. But, the elder population is also moving towards digitally connected lives. As age advances, there is a decline in the motor and cognitive functions of the brain, and hence the reaction time is affected. The study was undertaken to assess the usefulness of smartphones in improving cognitive functions. Aims and Objectives: The aim of the study was to observe the effects of smartphone addiction on reaction time in elderly population Material and Methods: This is an experimental study. 100 elderly subjects were enrolled in this study randomly from urban areas. They all were using smartphones for several hours a day. They were divided into two groups according to the scores of the mobile phone addiction scale (MPAS). Simple reaction time was estimated by the Ruler drop method. The reaction time was then calculated for each subject in both groups. The data were analyzed using mean, standard deviation, and Pearson correlation test. Results: The mean reaction time in Group A is 0.27+ 0.040 and in Group B is 0.20 + 0.032. The values show a statistically significant change in reaction time. Conclusion: Group A with a high MPAS score has a low reaction time compared to Group B with a low MPAS score. Hence, it can be concluded that the use of smartphones in the elderly is useful, delaying the neurological decline, and smarten the brain.

Keywords: smartphones, MPAS, reaction time, elderly population

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Authors: Lisete Barlach, Guilherme Ary Plonski

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Innovative ideas are not always synonymous with business opportunities. Any idea can be creative and not recognized as a potential project in which money and time will be invested, among other resources. Even in firms that promote and enhance innovation, there are two 'check-points', the first corresponding to the acknowledgment of the idea as creative and the second, its consideration as a business opportunity. Both the recognition of new business opportunities or new ideas involve cognitive and psychological frameworks which provide individuals with a basis for noticing connections between seemingly independent events or trends as if they were 'connecting the dots'. It also involves prototypes-representing the most typical member of a certain category–functioning as 'templates' for this recognition. There is a general assumption that these kinds of evaluation processes develop through experience, explaining why expertise plays a central role in this process: the more experienced a professional, the easier for him (her) to identify new opportunities in business. But, paradoxically, an increase in expertise can lead to the inflexibility of thought due to automation of procedures. And, besides this, other cognitive biases can also be present, because new ideas or business opportunities generally depend on heuristics, rather than on established algorithms. The paper presents a literature review about the Einstellung effect by tracking famous cases of rejected ideas, extracted from historical records. It also presents the results of empirical research, with data upon rejected ideas gathered from two different environments: projects rejected during first semester of 2017 at a large incubator center in Sao Paulo and ideas proposed by employees that were rejected by a well-known business company, at its Brazilian headquarter. There is an implicit assumption that Einstellung effect tends to be more and more present in contemporaneity, due to time pressure upon decision-making and idea generation process. The analysis discusses desirability, viability, and feasibility as elements that affect decision-making.

Keywords: cognitive biases, Einstellung effect, recognition of business opportunities, rejected ideas

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Authors: Xinrui Gao

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This research aims to explore the potential of shifting urban villages to public housing in China. In common practice, the central and local governments established two divided systems of urban redevelopment and public housing, including aims, design ideas, policy, headquarters, and branch offices. In most cases, the urban regeneration and public housing projects satisfy only the selected part of the society who can afford it (urban regeneration) or meet the requirements (public housing), which fail to cover the housing demand. However, there are many similarities between these two types of housing under the background of a shared economy, especially in target groups, affordable prices, and efficient use of spaces. Shenzhen always takes the lead in China’s urban regeneration and housing reformation. There are some top-down approaches to transforming housing in the urban village into public housing at present. These new approaches will provide a good chance to evaluate existing practices and explore the future development path of urban villages; while at the same time it could positively influence the housing problem in China.

Keywords: urban village, public housing, sharing economy, urban redevelopment

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Authors: A. M. Tahsini

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Computational study of two dimensional supersonic reacting hydrogen-air flows is performed to investigate the nitrogen effects on ignition delay time for premixed and diffusion flames. Chemical reaction is treated using detail kinetics and the advection upstream splitting method is used to calculate the numerical inviscid fluxes. The results show that only in the stoichiometric condition for both premixed and diffusion flames, there is monotone dependency of the ignition delay time to the nitrogen addition. In other situations, the optimal condition from ignition viewpoint should be found using numerical investigations.

Keywords: diffusion flame, ignition delay time, mixing layer, numerical simulation, premixed flame, supersonic flow

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Authors: Loubna Tani, Nabih Elouzzani

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Crosstalk among interconnects and printed-circuit board (PCB) traces is a major limiting factor of signal quality in high-speed digital and communication equipments especially when fast data buses are involved. Such a bus is considered as a planar multiconductor transmission line. This paper will demonstrate how the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method provides an exact solution of the transmission-line equations to analyze the near end and the far end crosstalk. In addition, this study makes it possible to analyze the rise time effect on the near and far end voltages of the victim conductor. The paper also discusses a statistical analysis, based upon a set of several simulations. Such analysis leads to a better understanding of the phenomenon and yields useful information.

Keywords: multiconductor transmission line, crosstalk, finite difference time domain (FDTD), printed-circuit board (PCB), rise time, statistical analysis

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Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

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In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet

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Authors: Hien Thi Dieu Truong, Mahmoud Al-Sarayreh, Pullanagari Reddy, Marlon M. Reis, Richard Archer

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New Zealand mānuka honey is a honeybee product derived mainly from Leptospermum scoparium nectar. The potent antibacterial activity of mānuka honey derives principally from methylglyoxal (MGO), in addition to the hydrogen peroxide and other lesser activities present in all honey. MGO is formed from dihydroxyacetone (DHA) unique to L. scoparium nectar. Mānuka honey also has an idiosyncratic phenolic profile that is useful as a chemical maker. Authentic mānuka honey is highly valuable, but almost all honey is formed from natural mixtures of nectars harvested by a hive over a time period. Once diluted by other nectars, mānuka honey irrevocably loses value. We aimed to apply hyperspectral imaging to honey frames before bulk extraction to minimise the dilution of genuine mānuka by other honey and ensure authenticity at the source. This technology is non-destructive and suitable for an industrial setting. Chemometrics using linear Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) showed limited efficacy in interpreting chemical footprints due to large non-linear relationships between predictor and predictand in a large sample set, likely due to honey quality variability across geographic regions. Therefore, an advanced modelling approach, one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN), was investigated for analysing hyperspectral data for extraction of biochemical information from honey. The 1D-CNN model showed superior prediction of honey quality (R² = 0.73, RMSE = 2.346, RPD= 2.56) to PLS (R² = 0.66, RMSE = 2.607, RPD= 1.91) and SVM (R² = 0.67, RMSE = 2.559, RPD=1.98). Classification of mono-floral manuka honey from multi-floral and non-manuka honey exceeded 90% accuracy for all models tried. Overall, this study reveals the potential of HSI and deep learning modelling for automating the evaluation of honey quality in frames.

Keywords: mānuka honey, quality, purity, potency, deep learning, 1D-CNN, chemometrics

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Authors: Getachew Weldemichael, Sentayehu Alamerew, Leta Tulu, Gezahegn Berecha

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Coffee quality improvement program is becoming the focus of coffee research, as the world coffee consumption pattern shifted to high-quality coffee. However, there is limited information on the genetic variation of C. Arabica for quality improvement in potential specialty coffee growing areas of Ethiopia. Therefore, this experiment was conducted with the objectives of determining the magnitude of variation among 105 coffee accessions collected from east Wollega coffee growing areas and assessing correlations between the different coffee qualities attributes. It was conducted in RCRD with three replications. Data on green bean physical characters (shape and make, bean color and odor) and organoleptic cup quality traits (aromatic intensity, aromatic quality, acidity, astringency, bitterness, body, flavor, and overall standard of the liquor) were recorded. Analysis of variance, clustering, genetic divergence, principal component and correlation analysis was performed using SAS software. The result revealed that there were highly significant differences (P<0.01) among the accessions for all quality attributes except for odor and bitterness. Among the tested accessions, EW104 /09, EW101 /09, EW58/09, EW77/09, EW35/09, EW71/09, EW68/09, EW96 /09, EW83/09 and EW72/09 had the highest total coffee quality values (the sum of bean physical and cup quality attributes). These genotypes could serve as a source of genes for green bean physical characters and cup quality improvement in Arabica coffee. Furthermore, cluster analysis grouped the coffee accessions into five clusters with significant inter-cluster distances implying that there is moderate diversity among the accessions and crossing accessions from these divergent inter-clusters would result in hetrosis and recombinants in segregating generations. The principal component analysis revealed that the first three principal components with eigenvalues greater than unity accounted for 83.1% of the total variability due to the variation of nine quality attributes considered for PC analysis, indicating that all quality attributes equally contribute to a grouping of the accessions in different clusters. Organoleptic cup quality attributes showed positive and significant correlations both at the genotypic and phenotypic levels, demonstrating the possibility of simultaneous improvement of the traits. Path coefficient analysis revealed that acidity, flavor, and body had a high positive direct effect on overall cup quality, implying that these traits can be used as indirect criteria to improve overall coffee quality. Therefore, it was concluded that there is considerable variation among the accessions, which need to be properly conserved for future improvement of the coffee quality. However, the variability observed for quality attributes must be further verified using biochemical and molecular analysis.

Keywords: accessions, Coffea arabica, cluster analysis, correlation, principal component

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Authors: Samaila Muazu Bawa

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Hydration process, crack potential and setting time of concrete grade C30, C40 and C50 were separately monitored using non-contact electrical resistivity apparatus, a plastic ring mould and penetration resistance method respectively. The results show highest resistivity of C30 at the beginning until reaching the acceleration point when C50 accelerated and overtaken the others, and this period corresponds to its final setting time range, from resistivity derivative curve, hydration process can be divided into dissolution, induction, acceleration and deceleration periods, restrained shrinkage crack and setting time tests demonstrated the earliest cracking and setting time of C50, therefore, this method conveniently and rapidly determines the concrete’s crack potential. The highest inflection time (ti), the final setting time (tf) were obtained and used with crack time in coming up with mathematical models for the prediction of concrete’s cracking age for the range being considered. Finally, ANSYS numerical simulations supports the experimental findings in terms of the earliest crack age of C50 and the crack location that, highest stress concentration is always beneath the artificially introduced expansion joint of C50.

Keywords: concrete hydration, electrical resistivity, restrained shrinkage crack, ANSYS simulation

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Authors: Te Wen Tu, Sen Yung Lee

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An alternative approach is proposed to develop the analytic solution for one dimensional heat conduction with one mixed type boundary condition and general time-dependent heat transfer coefficient. In this study, the physic meaning of the solution procedure is revealed. It is shown that the shifting function takes the physic meaning of the reciprocal of Biot function in the initial time. Numerical results show the accuracy of this study. Comparing with those given in the existing literature, the difference is less than 0.3%.

Keywords: analytic solution, heat transfer coefficient, shifting function method, time-dependent boundary condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 412