Search results for: analytical modelling

Authors: Nadia Fatima Zahra Malki

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The world has witnessed a great revolution in to field of technology and communication, especially after the opening of markets (globalization). This has led to a change from traditional marketing, which depends on direct selling and buying, to electronic marketing; consequently, different corporations have adopted this new concept so as to gain time, effort and money for the sake of the customer’s satisfaction. The main reason for this study is to know the impact of electronic marketing on consumer satisfaction in the fields of communication through practical studies of Ooredoo customers, where the descriptive analytical method was used with statistics to analyze the results of the survey. It concluded that e-marketing effectively contributes to customer satisfaction.

Keywords: e-marketing, consumer, consumer behavior, satisfaction

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Authors: S. Srinivas, N. Ramesh Babu

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This paper presents a model to predict the depth of penetration in polycrystalline ceramic material cut by abrasive waterjet. The proposed model considered the interaction of cylindrical jet with target material in upper region and neglected the role of threshold velocity in lower region. The results predicted with the proposed model are validated with the experimental results obtained with Silicon Carbide (SiC) blocks.

Keywords: abrasive waterjet cutting, analytical modeling, ceramics, micro-cutting and inter-grannular cracking

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Authors: Hongkui Li, Tongli Lu , Jianwu Zhang

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This paper focuses on developing an estimation method of clutch drag torque in wet DCT. The modelling of clutch drag torque is investigated. As the main factor affecting the clutch drag torque, dynamic viscosity of oil is discussed. The paper proposes an estimation method of clutch drag torque based on recursive least squares by utilizing the dynamic equations of gear shifting synchronization process. The results demonstrate that the estimation method has good accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: clutch drag torque, wet DCT, dynamic viscosity, recursive least squares

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Authors: Mohita Gangwar Sharma

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Different factors are compelling manufacturers to move towards the phenomenon of servitization i.e. when firms go beyond giving support to the customers in operating the equipment. The challenges that are being faced in this transition by the manufacturing firms from being a product provider to a product- service provider are multipronged. Product-Service Systems (PSS) lies in between the pure-product and pure-service continuum. Through this study, we wish to understand the dimensions of ‘PSS-quality’. We draw upon the quality literature for both the product and services and through an expert survey for a specific transportation sector using analytical hierarchical process (AHP) derive a conceptual model that can be used as a comprehensive measurement tool for PSS offerings.

Keywords: servitisation, quality, product-service system, AHP

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Authors: Subir S. Rao

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Existing warehouse configurations use non-traditional aisle designs with a central P/D point in their models, which is mathematically simple but less practical. Many warehouses use multiple P/D points to avoid congestion for pickers, and different warehouses have different flow policies and infrastructure for using the P/D points. Many warehouses use multiple P/D points with non-traditional aisle designs in their analytical models. Standard warehouse models introduce one-sided multiple P/D points in a flying-V warehouse and minimize pick distance for a one-way travel between an active P/D point and a pick location with P/D points, assuming uniform flow rates. A simulation of the mathematical model generally uses four fixed configurations of P/D points which are on two different sides of the warehouse. It can be easily proved that if the source and destination P/D points are both chosen randomly, in a uniform way, then minimizing the one-way travel is the same as minimizing the two-way travel. Another warehouse configuration analytically models the warehouse for multiple one-sided P/D points while keeping the angle of the cross-aisles and picking aisles as a decision variable. The minimization of the one-way pick travel distance from the P/D point to the pick location by finding the optimal position/angle of the cross-aisle and picking aisle for warehouses having different numbers of multiple P/D points with variable flow rates is also one of the objectives. Most models of warehouses with multiple P/D points are one-way travel models and we extend these analytical models to minimize the two-way pick travel distance wherein the destination P/D is chosen optimally for the return route, which is not similar to minimizing the one-way travel. In most warehouse models, the return P/D is chosen randomly, but in our research, the return route P/D point is chosen optimally. Such warehouses are common in practice, where the flow rates at the P/D points are flexible and depend totally on the position of the picks. A good warehouse management system is efficient in consolidating orders over multiple P/D points in warehouses where the P/D is flexible in function. In the latter arrangement, pickers and shrink-wrap processes are not assigned to particular P/D points, which ultimately makes the P/D points more flexible and easy to use interchangeably for picking and deposits. The number of P/D points considered in this research uniformly increases from a single-central one to a maximum of each aisle symmetrically having a P/D point below it.

Keywords: non-traditional warehouse, V cross-aisle, multiple P/D point, pick travel distance

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Authors: Oktay Emir

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The objective of this study is to determine how entrepreneurs perceive the economic, social and physical impacts of tourism. The study was conducted in the city of Afyonkarahisar, Turkey, which is rich in thermal tourism resources and investments. A survey was used as the data collection method, and the questionnaire was applied to 472 entrepreneurs. A simple random sampling method was used to identify the sample. Independent sampling t-tests and ANOVA tests were used to analyse the data obtained. Additionally, some statistically significant differences (p<0.05) were found based on the participants’ demographic characteristics regarding their opinions about the social, economic and physical impacts of tourism activities.

Keywords: tourism, perception, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs, structural equation modelling

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Authors: Indunil Jayatilake, Warna Karunasena, Weena Lokuge

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An Australian manufacturer has fabricated an innovative GFRP sandwich panel made from E-glass fiber skin and a modified phenolic core for structural applications. Debonding, which refers to separation of skin from the core material in composite sandwiches, is one of the most common types of damage in composites. The presence of debonding is of great concern because it not only severely affects the stiffness but also modifies the dynamic behaviour of the structure. Generally, it is seen that the majority of research carried out has been concerned about the delamination of laminated structures whereas skin-core debonding has received relatively minor attention. Furthermore, it is observed that research done on composite slabs having multiple skin-core debonding is very limited. To address this gap, a comprehensive research investigating dynamic behaviour of composite panels with single and multiple debonding is presented. The study uses finite-element modelling and analyses for investigating the influence of debonding on free vibration behaviour of single and multilayer composite sandwich panels. A broad parametric investigation has been carried out by varying debonding locations, debonding sizes and support conditions of the panels in view of both single and multiple debonding. Numerical models were developed with Strand7 finite element package by innovatively selecting the suitable elements to diligently represent their actual behavior. Three-dimensional finite element models were employed to simulate the physically real situation as close as possible, with the use of an experimentally and numerically validated finite element model. Comparative results and conclusions based on the analyses are presented. For similar extents and locations of debonding, the effect of debonding on natural frequencies appears greatly dependent on the end conditions of the panel, giving greater decrease in natural frequency when the panels are more restrained. Some modes are more sensitive to debonding and this sensitivity seems to be related to their vibration mode shapes. The fundamental mode seems generally the least sensitive mode to debonding with respect to the variation in free vibration characteristics. The results indicate the effectiveness of the developed three-dimensional finite element models in assessing debonding damage in composite sandwich panels

Keywords: debonding, free vibration behaviour, GFRP sandwich panels, three dimensional finite element modelling

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Authors: Thierry Ganomanana, Dominique Hervé, Solo Randriamahaleo

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Management of Malagasy renewable natural re-sources allows, in the case of forest, the mobilization of several actors with norms and/or territory. The interaction in this socio-ecosystem is represented by a graph of two different relationships in which most of action chains, from individual activities under the continuous of forest dynamic and discrete interventions by institutional, are also studied. The fuzzy set theory is adapted to graduate the elements of the set Illegal Activities in the space of sanction’s institution by his severity and in the space of degradation of forest by his extent.

Keywords: fuzzy set, graph, institution, renewable resource, system

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Authors: Yael Deutsch, Arieh Gavious

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The threat of aviation terrorism and its potential damage became significant after the 9/11 terror attacks. These attacks have led authorities and leaders to suggest that security personnel should overcome politically correct scruples about profiling and use it openly. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the smart usage of profiling and its advantages. We analyze game models that are suitable to specific real-world scenarios, focusing on profiling as a tool to detect potential violators, such as terrorists and smugglers. We provide analytical and clear answers to difficult questions, and by that help fighting against harmful violation acts.

Keywords: game theory, profiling, security, nash equilibrium

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Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

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This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

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Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease

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Authors: Liping Qiu, Xiaofeng Zhang

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The ion chromatography method for the rapid determination of four anions (F⁻、Cl⁻、SO₄²⁻、NO₃⁻) in burial ground poles was optimized. The L₉(₃⁴) orthogonal test was used to determine the optimal parameters of sample pretreatment: accurately weigh 2.000g of sample, add 10mL of ultrapure water, and extract for 40min under the conditions of shaking temperature 40℃ and shaking speed 180 r·min-1. The eluent was 25 mmol/L KOH solution, the analytical column was Ion Pac® AS11-SH (250 mm × 4.0 mm), and the purified filtrate was measured by a conductivity detector. Under this method, the detection limit of each ion is 0.066～0.078mg/kg, the relative standard deviation is 0.86%～2.44% (n=7), and the recovery rate is 94.6～101.9.

Keywords: ion chromatography, tomb, anion (F⁻, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻), environmental protection

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Authors: Bae Doobyong, Yoo Jaejun, Park Ilgyu, Choi Seowon, Oh Chang Kook

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Variation of slip coefficient in slip-critical connections of curved plates. This paper presents the results of analytical investigations of slip coefficients in slip-critical bolted connections of curved plates. It may depend on the contact stress distribution at interface and the flexibility of spliced plate. Non-linear FEM analyses have been made to simulate the behavior of bolted connections of curved plates with various radiuses of curvature and thicknesses.

Keywords: slip coefficient, curved plates, slip-critical bolted connection, radius of curvature

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Authors: Ali Muhammad

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The purpose of this study is to develop and test a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of procedural justice on four work outcomes: effective organizational commitmentو organizational trust, organizational citizenship behaviour, and adherence to rules. The new model attempts to explain how procedural justice effects work outcomes. Data were collected from 267 employees working in nine Kuwaiti business organizations. Structural equation modelling was used to analysis the data. A discussion of issues related to procedural justice is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Keywords: procedural justice, affective organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behaviour, organizational trust, adherence to rules

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad G. Rasul, M. Masud K. Khan, M. Sharif I. I. Amir

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Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometres with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban storm-water and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly storm-water is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of storm-water and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As storm-water is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing storm-water recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of storm-water harvesting and reuse. Numerical modelling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes storm-water quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through storm-water infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a storm-water harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of storm-water harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of storm-water harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of storm-water harvesting and reuse.

Keywords: storm-water management, storm-water harvesting and reuse, numerical modelling, geographic information system, decision support system, database

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Moustapha H. Ibrahim, Dahir Abdourahman

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This document presents a short-circuit fault detection process in a photovoltaic (PV) system. The proposed method is developed in MATLAB/Simulink. It determines whatever the size of the installation number of the short circuit module. The proposed algorithm indicates the presence or absence of an abnormality on the power of the PV system through measures of hourly global irradiation, power output, and ambient temperature. In case a fault is detected, it displays the number of modules in a short circuit. This fault detection method has been successfully tested on two different PV installations.

Keywords: PV system, short-circuit, fault detection, modelling, MATLAB-Simulink

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Authors: Kevin Brochard, Herve Le Sourne, Guillaume Barras

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The design of a submarine’s hull is crucial for its operability and crew’s safety, but also complex. Indeed, engineers need to balance lightness, acoustic discretion and resistance to both immersion pressure and environmental attacks. Submarine explosions represent a first-rate threat for the integrity of the hull, whose behavior needs to be properly analyzed. The presented work is focused on the development of a simplified analytical method to study the structural response of a deeply immersed cylinder submitted to an underwater explosion. This method aims to provide engineers a quick estimation of the resulting damage, allowing them to simulate a large number of explosion scenarios. The present research relies on the so-called plastic string on plastic foundation model. A two-dimensional boundary value problem for a cylindrical shell is converted to an equivalent one-dimensional problem of a plastic string resting on a non-linear plastic foundation. For this purpose, equivalence parameters are defined and evaluated by making assumptions on the shape of the displacement and velocity field in the cross-sectional plane of the cylinder. Closed-form solutions for the deformation and velocity profile of the shell are obtained for explosive loading, and compare well with numerical and experimental results. However, the plastic-string model has not yet been adapted for a cylinder in immersion subjected to an explosive loading. In fact, the effects of fluid-structure interaction have to be taken into account. Moreover, when an underwater explosion occurs, several pressure waves are emitted by the gas bubble pulsations, called secondary waves. The corresponding loads, which may produce significant damages to the cylinder, must also be accounted for. The analytical developments carried out to solve the above problem of a shock wave impacting a cylinder, considering fluid-structure interaction will be presented for an unstiffened cylinder. The resulting deformations are compared to experimental and numerical results for different shock factors and different standoff distances.

Keywords: immersed cylinder, rigid plastic material, shock loading, underwater explosion

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Authors: Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi, Uday A. Al-Hamdany, Sarah M. Hamylton, Brian G. Jones, Yasir M. Alyazichi

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Surface elevation dynamics have always responded to disturbance regimes. Creating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to detect surface dynamics has led to the development of several methods, devices and data clouds. DEMs can provide accurate and quick results with cost efficiency, in comparison to the inherited geomatics survey techniques. Nowadays, remote sensing datasets have become a primary source to create DEMs, including LiDAR point clouds with GIS analytic tools. However, these data need to be tested for error detection and correction. This paper evaluates various DEMs from different data sources over time for Apple Orchard Island, a coastal site in southeastern Australia, in order to detect surface dynamics. Subsequently, 30 chosen locations were examined in the field to test the error of the DEMs surface detection using high resolution global positioning systems (GPSs). Results show significant surface elevation changes on Apple Orchard Island. Accretion occurred on most of the island while surface elevation loss due to erosion is limited to the northern and southern parts. Concurrently, the projected differential correction and validation method aimed to identify errors in the dataset. The resultant DEMs demonstrated a small error ratio (≤ 3%) from the gathered datasets when compared with the fieldwork survey using RTK-GPS. As modern modelling approaches need to become more effective and accurate, applying several tools to create different DEMs on a multi-temporal scale would allow easy predictions in time-cost-frames with more comprehensive coverage and greater accuracy. With a DEM technique for the eco-geomorphic context, such insights about the ecosystem dynamic detection, at such a coastal intertidal system, would be valuable to assess the accuracy of the predicted eco-geomorphic risk for the conservation management sustainability. Demonstrating this framework to evaluate the historical and current anthropogenic and environmental stressors on coastal surface elevation dynamism could be profitably applied worldwide.

Keywords: DEMs, eco-geomorphic-dynamic processes, geospatial Information Science, remote sensing, surface elevation changes,

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hilestad, Hallvard Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem.Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles. Results: As an example a droplet of initial size of 3 microns, initially containing a 5M MEA, solution is exposed to an atmosphere free of MEA. Composition of the gas phase and temperature is changing with respect to time throughout the absorber.

Keywords: amine solvents, emissions, global climate change, simulation and modelling, aerosol generation

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Matej Komanec, Tomas Nemecek, Dmytro Suslov, Petr Chvojka, Stanislav Zvanovec

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Nonlinear phenomena in the near- and mid-infrared region are attracting scientific attention mainly due to the supercontinuum generation possibilities and subsequent utilizations for ultra-wideband applications like e.g. absorption spectroscopy or optical coherence tomography. Thulium-based fiber lasers provide access to high-power ultrashort pump pulses in the vicinity of 2000 nm, which can be easily exploited for various nonlinear applications. The paper presents a simulation and experimental study of a pulsed thulium laser based for near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) nonlinear applications in specialty optical fibers. In the first part of the paper the thulium laser is discussed. The thulium laser is based on a gain-switched seed-laser and a series of amplification stages for obtaining output peak powers in the order of kilowatts for pulses shorter than 200 ps in full-width at half-maximum. The pulsed thulium laser is first studied in a simulation software, focusing on seed-laser properties. Afterward, a pre-amplification thulium-based stage is discussed, with the focus of low-noise signal amplification, high signal gain and eliminating pulse distortions during pulse propagation in the gain medium. Following the pre-amplification stage a second gain stage is evaluated with incorporating a thulium-fiber of shorter length with increased rare-earth dopant ratio. Last a power-booster stage is analyzed, where the peak power of kilowatts should be achieved. Examples of analytical study are further validated by the experimental campaign. The simulation model is further corrected based on real components – parameters such as real insertion-losses, cross-talks, polarization dependencies, etc. are included. The second part of the paper evaluates the utilization of nonlinear phenomena, their specific features at the vicinity of 2000 nm, compared to e.g. 1550 nm, and presents supercontinuum modelling, based on the thulium laser pulsed output. Supercontinuum generation simulation is performed and provides reasonably accurate results, once fiber dispersion profile is precisely defined and fiber nonlinearity is known, furthermore input pulse shape and peak power must be known, which is assured thanks to the experimental measurement of the studied thulium pulsed laser. The supercontinuum simulation model is put in relation to designed and characterized specialty optical fibers, which are discussed in the third part of the paper. The focus is placed on silica and mainly on non-silica fibers (fluoride, chalcogenide, lead-silicate) in their conventional, microstructured or tapered variants. Parameters such as dispersion profile and nonlinearity of exploited fibers were characterized either with an accurate model, developed in COMSOL software or by direct experimental measurement to achieve even higher precision. The paper then combines all three studied topics and presents a possible application of such a thulium pulsed laser system working with specialty optical fibers.

Keywords: nonlinear phenomena, specialty optical fibers, supercontinuum generation, thulium laser

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

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Authors: Azariah Sosa, Carlos Renedo Sanchez

Abstract:

The development of a new motorway north of Auckland (New Zealand) includes steep rock cuts, from 63 up to 85 degrees, in an interbedded sandstone and siltstone rock mass of the geological unit Waitemata Group (Pakiri Formation), which shows sub-horizontal bedding planes, various sub-vertical joint sets, and a diverse weathering profile. In this kind of rock mass -that can be classified as a weak rock- the definition of the stable maximum geometry is not only governed by discontinuities and defects evident in the rock but is important to also consider the global stability of the rock slope, including (in the analysis) the rock mass characterisation, influence of the groundwater, the geological evolution, and the weathering processes. Depending on the weakness of the rock and the processes suffered, the global stability could, in fact, be a more restricting element than the potential instability of individual blocks through discontinuities. This paper discusses those elements that govern the stability of the rock slopes constructed in a rock formation with favourable bedding and distribution of discontinuities (horizontal and vertical) but with a weak behaviour in terms of global rock mass characterisation. In this context, classifications as Q-Slope and slope stability assessment methodology (SSAM) have been demonstrated as important tools which complement the assessment of the global stability together with the analytical tools related to the wedge-type failures and limit equilibrium methods. The paper focuses on the applicability of these two new empirical classifications to evaluate the slope stability in 18 already excavated rock slopes in the Pakiri formation through comparison between the predicted and observed stability issues and by reviewing the outcome of analytical methods (Rocscience slope stability software suite) compared against the expected stability determined from these rock classifications. This exercise will help validate such findings and correlations arising from the two empirical methods in order to adjust the methods to the nature of this specific kind of rock mass and provide a better understanding of the long-term stability of the slopes studied.

Keywords: Pakiri formation, Q-slope, rock slope stability, SSAM, weak rock

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Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

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Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

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Authors: Ivana Scidà, Francesco Alotto, Anna Osello

Abstract:

Due to the importance given today to innovation, the education sector is evolving thanks digital technologies. Virtual Reality (VR) can be a potential teaching tool offering many advantages in the field of training and education, as it allows to acquire theoretical knowledge and practical skills using an immersive experience in less time than the traditional educational process. These assumptions allow to lay the foundations for a new educational environment, involving and stimulating for students. Starting from the objective of strengthening the innovative teaching offer and the learning processes, the case study of the research concerns the digitalization of MastrLAB, High Quality Laboratory (HQL) belonging to the Department of Structural, Building and Geotechnical Engineering (DISEG) of the Polytechnic of Turin, a center specialized in experimental mechanical tests on traditional and innovative building materials and on the structures made with them. The MastrLAB-VR has been developed, a revolutionary innovative training tool designed with the aim of educating the class in total safety on the techniques of use of machinery, thus reducing the dangers arising from the performance of potentially dangerous activities. The virtual laboratory, dedicated to the students of the Building and Civil Engineering Courses of the Polytechnic of Turin, has been projected to simulate in an absolutely realistic way the experimental approach to the structural tests foreseen in their courses of study: from the tensile tests to the relaxation tests, from the steel qualification tests to the resilience tests on elements at environmental conditions or at characterizing temperatures. The research work proposes a methodology for the virtualization of technical laboratories through the application of Building Information Modelling (BIM), starting from the creation of a digital model. The process includes the creation of an independent application, which with Oculus Rift technology will allow the user to explore the environment and interact with objects through the use of joypads. The application has been tested in prototype way on volunteers, obtaining results related to the acquisition of the educational notions exposed in the experience through a virtual quiz with multiple answers, achieving an overall evaluation report. The results have shown that MastrLAB-VR is suitable for both beginners and experts and will be adopted experimentally for other laboratories of the University departments.

Keywords: building information modelling, digital learning, education, virtual laboratory, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 113