Search results for: algorithms decision tree

Authors: Tejinder Singh

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Information system is the flow of data from different levels to different directions for decision making and data operations in information system (IS). Data can be violated by different manner like manual or technical errors, data tampering or loss of integrity. Security system called firewall of IS is effected by such type of violations. The flow of data among various levels of Information System is done by networking system. The flow of data on network is in form of packets or frames. To protect these packets from unauthorized access, virus attacks, and to maintain the integrity level, network security is an important factor. To protect the data to get pirated, various security techniques are used. This paper represents the various security techniques and signifies different harmful attacks with the help of detailed data analysis. This paper will be beneficial for the organizations to make the system more secure, effective, and beneficial for future decisions making.

Keywords: information systems, data integrity, TCP/IP network, vulnerability, decision, data

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Authors: Kostas Metaxiotis, Kostas Liagkouras

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This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: expert systems, multi-objective optimization, evolutionary algorithms, portfolio selection

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Authors: Dinmukhamed T., Vassiliy S.

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This article suggests the idea of fitting clothes and accessories based on augmented reality. A logical data model has been developed, taking into account the decision-making module (colors, style, type, material, popularity, etc.) based on personal data (age, gender, weight, height, leg size, hoist length, geolocation, photogrammetry, number of purchases of certain types of clothing, etc.) and statistical data of the purchase history (number of items, price, size, color, style, etc.). Also, in order to provide information to the user, it is planned to develop an augmented reality system using a QR code. This system of selection and fitting of clothing and accessories based on augmented reality will be used in stores to reduce the time for the buyer to make a decision on the choice of clothes.

Keywords: augmented reality, online store, decision-making module, like QR code, clothing store, queue

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Authors: Krishnan Manickavasagam, Manikandan Shanmugam

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Clean and abundant renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar energy is seen as the best solution to replace conventional energy source. Unpredictable power generation is a major issue in the penetration of solar energy, as power generated is governed by the irradiance received. Controlling the power generated from solar PV (SPV) panels to battery and load is a challenging task. In this paper, power flow control from SPV to load and energy storage device (ESD) is controlled by a fuzzy decision support system (FDSS) on the availability of solar irradiation. The results show that FDSS implemented with the energy management system (EMS) is capable of managing power within the area, and if excess power is available, then shared with the neighboring area.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, fuzzy decision support system, solar photovoltaic, energy storage device, energy management system

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Authors: Martin Georgiev, Milena Nanova, Damyan Damov

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Architects, engineers, and developers need to analyse and implement a wide spectrum of data in different formats, if they want to produce viable residential developments. Usually, this data comes from a number of different sources and is not well structured. The main objective of this research project is to provide parametric tools working with real geodesic data that can generate residential solutions. Various codes, regulations and design constraints are described by variables and prioritized. In this way, we establish a common workflow for architects, geodesists, and other professionals involved in the building and investment process. This collaborative medium ensures that the generated design variants conform to various requirements, contributing to a more streamlined and informed decision-making process. The quantification of distinctive characteristics inherent to typical residential structures allows a systematic evaluation of the generated variants, focusing on factors crucial to designers, such as daylight simulation, circulation analysis, space utilization, view orientation, etc. Integrating real geodesic data offers a holistic view of the built environment, enhancing the accuracy and relevance of the design solutions. The use of generative algorithms and parametric models offers high productivity and flexibility of the design variants. It can be implemented in more conventional CAD and BIM workflow. Experts from different specialties can join their efforts, sharing a common digital workspace. In conclusion, our research demonstrates that a generative parametric approach based on real geodesic data and collaborative decision-making could be introduced in the early phases of the design process. This gives the designers powerful tools to explore diverse design possibilities, significantly improving the qualities of the building investment during its entire lifecycle.

Keywords: architectural design, residential buildings, urban development, geodesic data, generative design, parametric models, workflow optimization

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Authors: Jigg Pelayo, Ricardo Villar

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The Philippines is long considered as a valuable producer of high value crops globally. The country’s employment and economy have been dependent on agriculture, thus increasing its demand for the efficient agricultural mechanism. Remote sensing and geographic information technology have proven to effectively provide applications for precision agriculture through image-processing technique considering the development of the aerial scanning technology in the country. Accurate information concerning the spatial correlation within the field is very important for precision farming of high value crops, especially. The availability of height information and high spatial resolution images obtained from aerial scanning together with the development of new image analysis methods are offering relevant influence to precision agriculture techniques and applications. In this study, an algorithm was developed and implemented to detect and count high value crops simultaneously through adaptive scaling of support vector machine (SVM) algorithm subjected to object-oriented approach combining watershed transformation and local maxima filter in enhancing tree counting and detection. The methodology is compared to cutting-edge template matching algorithm procedures to demonstrate its effectiveness on a demanding tree is counting recognition and delineation problem. Since common data and image processing techniques are utilized, thus can be easily implemented in production processes to cover large agricultural areas. The algorithm is tested on high value crops like Palm, Mango and Coconut located in Misamis Oriental, Philippines - showing a good performance in particular for young adult and adult trees, significantly 90% above. The s inventories or database updating, allowing for the reduction of field work and manual interpretation tasks.

Keywords: high value crop, LiDAR, OBIA, precision agriculture

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Authors: Abeba Nigussie Turi, Xiangming Samuel Li

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Data-driven business models are more typical for established businesses than early-stage startups that strive to penetrate a market. This paper provided an extensive discussion on the principles of data analytics for early-stage digital entrepreneurial businesses. Here, we developed data-driven decision-making (DDDM) framework that applies to startups prone to multifaceted barriers in the form of poor data access, technical and financial constraints, to state some. The startup DDDM framework proposed in this paper is novel in its form encompassing startup data analytics enablers and metrics aligning with startups' business models ranging from customer-centric product development to servitization which is the future of modern digital entrepreneurship.

Keywords: startup data analytics, data-driven decision-making, data acquisition, data generation, digital entrepreneurship

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Authors: Latif Yanar, Muharrem Kaçan

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In this study, an Analytic Hierarchy Process and Analytic Network Process Decision Support System (DSS) model for determination of a navy base place in another country is proposed together with a decision support software (DESTEC 1.0) developed using C Sharp programming language. The proposed software also has the ability of performing the fuzzy models (Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ANP) of the proposed DSS to cope with the ambiguous and linguistic nature of the model. The AHP and ANP model, for a decision support for selecting the best place among the alternatives, including the criteria and alternatives, is developed and solved by the experts from Turkish Navy and Turkish academicians related to international relations branches of the universities in Turkey. Also, the questionnaires used for weighting of the criteria and the alternatives are filled by these experts.Some of our alternatives are: economic and political stability of the third country, the effect of another super power in that country, historical relations, security in that country, social facilities in the city in which the base will be built, the transportation security and difficulty from a main city that have an airport to the city will have the base etc. Over 20 criteria like these are determined which are categorized in social, political, economic and military aspects. As a result all the criteria and three alternatives are evaluated by different people who have background and experience to weight the criteria and alternatives as it must be in AHP and ANP evaluation system. The alternatives got their degrees all between 0 – 1 and the total is 1. At the end the DSS advices one of the alternatives as the best one to the decision maker according to the developed model and the evaluations of the experts.

Keywords: analytic hierarchical process, analytic network process, fuzzy logic, naval base place selection, multiple criteria decision making

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Cristina Vatamanu, Doina Cosovan, Dragos Gavrilut, Henri Luchian

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In the past few years, the amount of malicious software increased exponentially and, therefore, machine learning algorithms became instrumental in identifying clean and malware files through semi-automated classification. When working with very large datasets, the major challenge is to reach both a very high malware detection rate and a very low false positive rate. Another challenge is to minimize the time needed for the machine learning algorithm to do so. This paper presents a comparative study between different machine learning techniques such as linear classifiers, ensembles, decision trees or various hybrids thereof. The training dataset consists of approximately 2 million clean files and 200.000 infected files, which is a realistic quantitative mixture. The paper investigates the above mentioned methods with respect to both their performance (detection rate and false positive rate) and their practicability.

Keywords: ensembles, false positives, feature selection, one side class algorithm

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Authors: H. D. Arora, Anjali Dhiman

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Uncertainty is found everywhere and its understanding is central to decision making. Uncertainty emerges as one has less information than the total information required describing a system and its environment. Uncertainty and information are so closely associated that the information provided by an experiment for example, is equal to the amount of uncertainty removed. It may be pertinent to point out that uncertainty manifests itself in several forms and various kinds of uncertainties may arise from random fluctuations, incomplete information, imprecise perception, vagueness etc. For instance, one encounters uncertainty due to vagueness in communication through natural language. Uncertainty in this sense is represented by fuzziness resulting from imprecision of meaning of a concept expressed by linguistic terms. Fuzzy set concept provides an appropriate mathematical framework for dealing with the vagueness. Both information theory, proposed by Shannon (1948) and fuzzy set theory given by Zadeh (1965) plays an important role in human intelligence and various practical problems such as image segmentation, medical diagnosis etc. Numerous approaches and theories dealing with inaccuracy and uncertainty have been proposed by different researcher. In the present communication, we generalize fuzzy entropy proposed by De Luca and Termini (1972) corresponding to Shannon entropy(1948). Further, some of the basic properties of the proposed measure were examined. We also applied the proposed measure to the real life decision making problem.

Keywords: entropy, fuzzy sets, fuzzy entropy, generalized fuzzy entropy, decision making

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: A. Ramalho, L. Romeiro, R. Ventura, A. Suleman

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A real-time path planning framework for Unmanned Air Vehicles, and in particular multi-rotors is proposed. The framework is designed to provide feasible trajectories from the current UAV position to a goal state, taking into account constraints such as obstacle avoidance, problem kinematics, and vehicle limitations such as maximum speed and maximum acceleration. The framework computes feasible paths online, allowing to avoid new, unknown, dynamic obstacles without fully re-computing the trajectory. These features are achieved using an iterative process in which the robot computes and optimizes the trajectory while performing the mission objectives. A first trajectory is computed using a modified Rapidly-Exploring Random Tree (RRT) algorithm, that provides trajectories that respect a maximum curvature constraint. The trajectory optimization is accomplished using the Interior Point Optimizer (IPOPT) as a solver. The framework has proven to be able to compute a trajectory and optimize to a locally optimal with computational efficiency making it feasible for real-time operations.

Keywords: interior point optimization, multi-rotors, online path planning, rapidly exploring random trees, trajectory optimization

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Authors: M. Kislu Noman, Syed Mohammed Shamsul Islam, Shahriar Hassan, Raihana Pervin

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With the increasing rate of wireless devices and high bandwidth operations, wireless networking and communications are becoming over crowded. To cope with such crowdy and messy situation, massive MIMO is designed to work with hundreds of low costs serving antennas at a time as well as improve the spectral efficiency at the same time. TDD has been used for gaining beamforming which is a major part of massive MIMO, to gain its best improvement to transmit and receive pilot sequences. All the benefits are only possible if the channel state information or channel estimation is gained properly. The common methods to estimate channel matrix used so far is LS, MMSE and a linear version of MMSE also proposed in many research works. We have optimized these methods using genetic algorithm to minimize the mean squared error and finding the best channel matrix from existing algorithms with less computational complexity. Our simulation result has shown that the use of GA worked beautifully on existing algorithms in a Rayleigh slow fading channel and existence of Additive White Gaussian Noise. We found that the GA optimized LS is better than existing algorithms as GA provides optimal result in some few iterations in terms of MSE with respect to SNR and computational complexity.

Keywords: channel estimation, LMMSE, LS, MIMO, MMSE

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Authors: Ilqar Ramazanli

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The matrix completion problem has been studied broadly under many underlying conditions. The problem has been explored under adaptive or non-adaptive, exact or estimation, single-phase or multi-phase, and many other categories. In most of these cases, the observation cost of each entry is uniform and has the same cost across the columns. However, in many real-life scenarios, we could expect elements from distinct columns or distinct positions to have a different cost. In this paper, we explore this generalization under adaptive conditions. We approach the problem under two different cost models. The first one is that entries from different columns have different observation costs, but within the same column, each entry has a uniform cost. The second one is any two entry has different observation cost, despite being the same or different columns. We provide complexity analysis of our algorithms and provide tightness guarantees.

Keywords: matroid optimization, matrix completion, linear algebra, algorithms

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Authors: Sukhleen Kaur

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In security groundwork, Intrusion Detection System (IDS) has become an important component. The IDS has received increasing attention in recent years. IDS is one of the effective way to detect different kinds of attacks and malicious codes in a network and help us to secure the network. Data mining techniques can be implemented to IDS, which analyses the large amount of data and gives better results. Data mining can contribute to improving intrusion detection by adding a level of focus to anomaly detection. So far the study has been carried out on finding the attacks but this paper detects the malicious files. Some intruders do not attack directly, but they hide some harmful code inside the files or may corrupt those file and attack the system. These files are detected according to some defined parameters which will form two lists of files as normal files and harmful files. After that data mining will be performed. In this paper a hybrid classifier has been used via Naive Bayes and Ripper classification methods. The results show how the uploaded file in the database will be tested against the parameters and then it is characterised as either normal or harmful file and after that the mining is performed. Moreover, when a user tries to mine on harmful file it will generate an exception that mining cannot be made on corrupted or harmful files.

Keywords: data mining, association, classification, clustering, decision tree, intrusion detection system, misuse detection, anomaly detection, naive Bayes, ripper

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Authors: 李佳翰, CHIA-HAN LEE

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Without energy, the economy would grind to a halt. Germany's prosperity and security depend on a reliable and affordable energy supply. In recent years, Germany's energy policy has undergone major changes. Due to the sharp turn in energy, Germany cannot extend the service of nuclear power plants and can only find a rapid transition energy source: natural gas for a limited time. This study attempts to use processes of decision entrapment behavior and document analysis to explain research questions. Through primary and secondary information such as official reports, parliamentary minutes, media interview records, and speech records, the author sorted out the important events experienced by the three coalition governments (Gerhard Schröder, Angela Merkel, and Olaf Scholz) and the relationship between Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 with primary and secondary sources. Also, compare it with the processes of decision entrapment behavior, which designed in this study, and divide it into four stages to explore its key elements one by one. In this regard, the following conclusions are drawn: First, from the perspective of processes of decision entrapment behavior, Merkel’s government firmly believes that she can overcome difficulties because of her past experience in crisis management capabilities. However, the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia was beyond Merkel's planning. Second, in the face of the crisis, the Scholz’s government increased the import of natural gas from other countries and began to import liquefied natural gas to make up for the energy gap of Russian natural gas.

Keywords: german research, nord stream gas pipeline, energy policy, processes of decision entrapment behavior

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Authors: Buket Metin

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Buildings cause a variety of loads on the environment due to activities performed at each stage of the building life cycle. Construction is the first stage that affects both the natural and built environments at different steps of the process, which can be defined as transportation of materials within the construction site, formation and preparation of materials on-site and the application of materials to realize the building subsystems. All of these steps require the use of technology, which varies based on the facilities that contractors and subcontractors have. Hence, environmental consequences of the construction process should be tackled by focusing on construction technology options used in every step of the process. This paper presents an environmental decision-making model for assessing on-site performances of subcontractors based on the construction technology options which they can supply. First, construction technologies, which constitute information, tools and methods, are classified. Then, environmental performance criteria are set forth related to resource consumption, ecosystem quality, and human health issues. Finally, the model is developed based on the relationships between the construction technology components and the environmental performance criteria. The Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method is used for weighting the environmental performance criteria according to environmental priorities of decision-maker(s), while the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is used for ranking on-site environmental performances of subcontractors using quantitative data related to the construction technology components. Thus, the model aims to provide an insight to decision-maker(s) about the environmental consequences of the construction process and to provide an opportunity to improve the overall environmental performance of construction sites.

Keywords: construction process, construction technology, decision making, environmental performance, subcontractor

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Authors: R. Gary Black, Abolhassan Astaneh-Asl

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The International Building Code (IBC) and the California Building Code (CBC) both recognize four basic types of steel seismic resistant frames; moment frames, concentrically braced frames, shear walls and eccentrically braced frames. Based on specified geometries and detailing, the seismic performance of these steel frames is well understood. In 2011, the authors designed an innovative steel braced frame system with tapering members in the general shape of a branching tree as a seismic retrofit solution to an existing four story “lift-slab” building. Located in the seismically active San Francisco Bay Area of California, a frame of this configuration, not covered by the governing codes, would typically require model or full scale testing to obtain jurisdiction approval. This paper describes how the theories, protocols, and code requirements of eccentrically braced frames (EBFs) were employed to satisfy the 2009 International Building Code (IBC) and the 2010 California Building Code (CBC) for seismically resistant steel frames and permit construction of these nonconforming geometries.

Keywords: eccentrically braced frame, lift slab construction, seismic retrofit, shear link, steel design

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Authors: Khushi, Simrat

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The study aims to investigate the relationship between emotions and employee's social cognition and decision-making among employees. The sample of the study was the total number of participants, which included employees from various industries and job positions. Research papers in the same area were reviewed, providing a comprehensive review of existing literature and theoretical frameworks and shedding light on the interpersonal effects of emotions in the workplace. It emphasizes how one worker's emotions can significantly impact the overall work environment and productivity as well as the work of a common phenomenon known as Emotional contagion at the workplace, affecting social interactions and group dynamics. Therefore, this study concludes that Emotional contagion can lead to a ripple effect within the workplace, influencing the overall atmosphere and productivity. Emotions can shape how employees process information and make choices, ultimately impacting organizational outcomes.

Keywords: employee decision making, social cognition, emotions, industry, emotional contagion, workplace dynamics

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Authors: Muhammad Shahzad Shifa, Amna Shifa, Muhammad Omar, Aamir Shahzad, Rahmat Ali Khan

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Many applications of remote sensing to vegetation and crop response depend on spectral properties of individual leaves and plants. Vegetation indices are usually determined to estimate crop biophysical parameters like crop canopies and crop leaf area indices with the help of remote sensing. Cotton crops assessment is performed with the help of vegetative indices. Remotely sensed images from an optical multispectral radiometer MSR5 are used in this study. The interpretation is based on the fact that different materials reflect and absorb light differently at different wavelengths. Non-normalized and normalized forms of these datasets are analyzed using two complementary data mining algorithms; K-means and K-nearest neighbor (KNN). Our analysis shows that the use of normalized reflectance data and vegetative indices are suitable for an automated assessment and decision making.

Keywords: cotton, condition assessment, KNN algorithm, clustering, MSR5, vegetation indices

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Authors: Dmitri Terzi

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The article presents the results of an algorithmic study of a special optimization problem of the transport type (traveling salesman problem): 1) To solve the problem, a new natural algorithm has been developed based on the decomposition of the initial data into convex hulls, which has a number of advantages; it is applicable for a fairly large dimension, does not require a large amount of memory, and has fairly good performance. The relevance of the algorithm lies in the fact that, in practice, programs for problems with the number of traversal points of no more than twenty are widely used. For large-scale problems, the availability of algorithms and programs of this kind is difficult. The proposed algorithm is natural because the optimal solution found by the exact algorithm is not always feasible due to the presence of many other factors that may require some additional restrictions. 2) Another inverse problem solved here is to describe a class of traveling salesman problems that have a predetermined optimal solution. The constructed algorithm 2 allows us to characterize the structure of traveling salesman problems, as well as construct test problems to evaluate the effectiveness of algorithms and other purposes. 3) The appendix presents a software implementation of Algorithm 1 (in MATLAB), which can be used to solve practical problems, as well as in the educational process on operations research and optimization methods.

Keywords: traveling salesman problem, solution construction algorithm, convex hulls, optimality verification

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Authors: Viviana Ventre, Giacomo Di Tollo, Roberta Martino

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The portfolio selection problem includes the evaluation of many criteria that are difficult to compare directly and is characterized by uncertain elements. The portfolio selection problem can be modeled as a group decision problem in which several experts are invited to present their assessment. In this context, it is important to study and analyze the process of reaching a consensus among group members. Indeed, due to the various diversities among experts, reaching consensus is not necessarily always simple and easily achievable. Moreover, the concept of consensus is accompanied by the concept of false consensus, which is particularly interesting in the dynamics of group decision-making processes. False consensus can alter the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative and is the consequence of the decision maker's inability to recognize that his preferences are conditioned by subjective structures. The present work aims to investigate the dynamics of consensus attainment in a group decision problem in which equivalent portfolios are proposed. In particular, the study aims to analyze the impact of the subjective structure of the decision-maker during the evaluation and selection phase of the alternatives. Therefore, the experimental framework is divided into three phases. In the first phase, experts are sent to evaluate the characteristics of all portfolios individually, without peer comparison, arriving independently at the selection of the preferred portfolio. The experts' evaluations are used to obtain individual Analytical Hierarchical Processes that define the weight that each expert gives to all criteria with respect to the proposed alternatives. This step provides insight into how the decision maker's decision process develops, step by step, from goal analysis to alternative selection. The second phase includes the description of the decision maker's state through Markov chains. In fact, the individual weights obtained in the first phase can be reviewed and described as transition weights from one state to another. Thus, with the construction of the individual transition matrices, the possible next state of the expert is determined from the individual weights at the end of the first phase. Finally, the experts meet, and the process of reaching consensus is analyzed by considering the single individual state obtained at the previous stage and the false consensus bias. The work contributes to the study of the impact of subjective structures, quantified through the Analytical Hierarchical Process, and how they combine with the false consensus bias in group decision-making dynamics and the consensus reaching process in problems involving the selection of equivalent portfolios.

Keywords: analytical hierarchical process, consensus building, false consensus effect, markov chains, portfolio selection problem

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Authors: Hamidreza Ghazvinian, Khosro Ghazvinian, Touba Khodaiean

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The importance of evaporation estimation in water resources and agricultural studies is undeniable. Pan evaporation are used as an indicator to determine the evaporation of lakes and reservoirs around the world due to the ease of interpreting its data. In this research, intelligent models were investigated in estimating pan evaporation on a daily basis. Shahroud and Mayamey were considered as the studied cities. These two cities are located in Semnan province in Iran. The mentioned cities have dry weather conditions that are susceptible to high evaporation potential. Meteorological data of 11 years of synoptic stations of Shahrood and Mayamey cities were used. The intelligent models used in this study are Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), and M5 tree models. Meteorological parameters of minimum and maximum air temperature (Tmax, Tmin), wind speed (WS), sunshine hours (SH), air pressure (PA), relative humidity (RH) as selected input data and evaporation data from pan (EP) to The output data was considered. 70% of data is used at the education level, and 30 % of the data is used at the test level. Models used with explanation coefficient evaluation (R2) Root of Mean Squares Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results for the two Shahroud and Mayamey stations showed that the above three models' operations are rather appropriate.

Keywords: pan evaporation, intelligent methods, shahroud, mayamey

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Authors: Pejman Hosseinioun, Hasan Shakeri, Ghasem Ghorbanirostam

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In recent years, we have seen an increasing importance of research and study on knowledge source, decision support systems, data mining and procedure of knowledge discovery in data bases and it is considered that each of these aspects affects the others. In this article, we have merged information source and knowledge source to suggest a knowledge based system within limits of management based on storing and restoring of knowledge to manage information and improve decision making and resources. In this article, we have used method of data mining and Apriori algorithm in procedure of knowledge discovery one of the problems of Apriori algorithm is that, a user should specify the minimum threshold for supporting the regularity. Imagine that a user wants to apply Apriori algorithm for a database with millions of transactions. Definitely, the user does not have necessary knowledge of all existing transactions in that database, and therefore cannot specify a suitable threshold. Our purpose in this article is to improve Apriori algorithm. To achieve our goal, we tried using fuzzy logic to put data in different clusters before applying the Apriori algorithm for existing data in the database and we also try to suggest the most suitable threshold to the user automatically.

Keywords: decision support system, data mining, knowledge discovery, data discovery, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

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The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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Authors: Mohammad Sadeghi, Mahdieh Saniee

Abstract:

Nowadays, development laws have become a major branch of engineering science, laws help humankind achieve his/her basic needs, and it is attracted to the attention of the nations. Therefore, lawyers have been invited to contemplate legislator's approaches respecting legislating countries' economic, social and cultural development plans and to observe the reliance of approaches on two elements of distributive justice and transitional justice in light of legal rationality. Legal rationality in development planning has encountered us with this question that whether a rational approach and existing models in the Iran development planning system approximate us to the goal of development laws respecting the rationalist approach and also regarding wisely decision-making model. The present study will investigate processes, approaches, and damages of development planning in the legislation of country development plans to answer this question.

Keywords: rationality, decision-making process, policymaking, development

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Authors: Jae Moon Lee

Abstract:

In general, algorithms to find continuous k-nearest neighbors have been researched on the location based services, monitoring periodically the moving objects such as vehicles and mobile phone. Those researches assume the environment that the number of query points is much less than that of moving objects and the query points are not moved but fixed. In gaming environments, this problem is when computing the next movement considering the neighbors such as flocking, crowd and robot simulations. In this case, every moving object becomes a query point so that the number of query point is same to that of moving objects and the query points are also moving. In this paper, we analyze the performance of the existing algorithms focused on location based services how they operate under gaming environments.

Keywords: flocking behavior, heterogeneous agents, similarity, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Abdullah Ali Salamai

Abstract:

Risk management in the construction supply chain (CSC) is vital in construction project risks. CSC has various risks affecting product quality and project timeline, such as operational, social, financial, technical, design, and safety risks. These risks should be mitigated in project construction. So, this paper proposed a set of technologies to overcome risks in CSC, like artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, data analytics, and IoT, to select the best one. So, the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology is used to deal with various risks. The Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) method is used to rank technologies. The weights of risks are obtained by the average method by using the decision matrix. The MCDM methodology is integrated with a fuzzy set to overcome uncertainty data. Experts used triangular fuzzy numbers to express their opinions instead of exact numbers. These allow the model to overcome inconsistent and vague data. The MCDM methodology was applied to 18 risks and 5 technologies. The results show that social risks have the highest weight. AI is the best technology for overcoming risks in CSC. AI can integrate with CSC from raw data to final products to deliver to the user.

Keywords: risk management, construction supply chain, fuzzy sets, multi-criteria decision making, supply chain management, artificial intelligence, blockchain

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M. L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

Abstract:

Flash floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work, we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: decision support systems, early warning systems, flash flood, natural hazard

Procedia PDF Downloads 362