Search results for: context based planning model

Authors: Mahdi Saadat, Abbas Taheri

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Understanding the cracking response of crystalline rocks at mineralogical scale is of great importance during the design procedure of mining structures. A grain-based distinct element model (GBM) is employed to numerically study the cracking response of Barre granite at micro- and macro-scales. The GBM framework is augmented with a proposed distinct element-based cohesive model to reproduce the micro-cracking response of the inter- and intra-grain contacts. The cohesive GBM framework is implemented in PFC2D distinct element codes. The microstructural properties of Barre granite are imported in PFC2D to generate synthetic specimens. The microproperties of the model is calibrated against the laboratory uniaxial compressive and Brazilian split tensile tests. The calibrated model is then used to simulate the fracturing behaviour of pre-cracked Barre granite with different flaw configurations. The numerical results of the proposed model demonstrate a good agreement with the experimental counterparts. The GBM framework proposed thus appears promising for further investigation of the influence of grain microstructure and mineralogical properties on the cracking behaviour of crystalline rocks.

Keywords: discrete element modelling, cohesive grain-based model, crystalline rock, fracturing behavior

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Authors: Nick Farid, Roghoyeh Salmeh

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The planning and operation of the power grid is becoming much more complex because of the introduction of renewable energy resources, the digitalization of the electricity industry, as well as the coupling of efficiency and greener energy trends. These changes, along with new trends, make interactions between grid users and the other stakeholders more complex. This paper focuses on the main “physical” and “logical” interactions between grid users and the grid stakeholders, both from power system equipment and information management standpoints, and proposes a new interoperability model for Smart Grids.

Keywords: user interface, interoperability layers, grid architecture framework, smart grid

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Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

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In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

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Authors: Toktam Khatibi

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Self-supervised learning (SSL) includes machine learning models that are trained on one aspect and/or one part of the input to learn other aspects and/or part of it. SSL models are divided into two different categories, including pre-text task-based models and contrastive learning ones. Pre-text tasks are some auxiliary tasks learning pseudo-labels, and the trained models are further fine-tuned for downstream tasks. However, one important disadvantage of SSL using pre-text task solving is defining an appropriate pre-text task for each image dataset with a variety of image modalities. Therefore, it is required to design an appropriate pretext task automatically for each dataset and each downstream task. To the best of our knowledge, the automatic designing of pretext tasks for image analysis has not been considered yet. In this paper, we present a framework based on In-context learning that describes each task based on its input and output data using a pre-trained image transformer. Our proposed method combines the input image and its learned description for optimizing the pre-text task design and its hyper-parameters using Meta-learning models. The representations learned from the pre-text tasks are fine-tuned for solving the downstream tasks. We demonstrate that our proposed framework outperforms the compared ones on unseen tasks and image modalities in addition to its superior performance for previously known tasks and datasets.

Keywords: in-context learning (ICL), meta learning, self-supervised learning (SSL), vision-language domain, transformers

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Authors: Yuanjin Liu

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Retirement withdrawal strategies are very important to minimize the probability of ruin in retirement. The ruin probability is modeled as a function of initial withdrawal age, gender, asset allocation, inflation rate, and initial withdrawal rate. The ruin probability is obtained based on the 2019 period life table for the Social Security, IRS Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Worksheets, US historical bond and equity returns, and inflation rates using simulation. Several popular machine learning algorithms of the generalized additive model, random forest, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and artificial neural network are built. The model validation and selection are based on the test errors using hyperparameter tuning and train-test split. The optimal model is recommended for retirees to monitor the ruin probability. The optimal withdrawal strategy can be obtained based on the optimal predictive model.

Keywords: ruin probability, retirement withdrawal strategies, predictive models, optimal model

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Authors: John Gaber

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Planners regularly use citizen input as empirical data to help them better understand community issues they know very little about. This type of community data is based on the lived experiences of local residents and is known as "emic" data. What is becoming more common practice for planners is their use of data from local experts and stakeholders (known as "etic" data or the outsider perspective) to help them fill in the gaps in their analysis of applied planning research projects. Utilizing international Health Impact Assessment (HIA) data, I look at who planners invite to their citizen input investigations. Research presented in this paper shows that planners access a wide range of emic and etic community perspectives in their search for the “community’s view.” The paper concludes with how planners can chart out a new empirical path in their execution of emic/etic citizen participation strategies in their applied planning research projects.

Keywords: citizen participation, emic data, etic data, Health Impact Assessment (HIA)

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: M. R. Ghasemi, R. Ghiasi, H. Varaee

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Surrogate model has received increasing attention for use in detecting damage of structures based on vibration modal parameters. However, uncertainties existing in the measured vibration data may lead to false or unreliable output result from such model. In this study, an efficient approach based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to take into account the effect of uncertainties in developing a surrogate model. The probability of damage existence (PDE) is calculated based on the probability density function of the existence of undamaged and damaged states. The kriging technique allows one to genuinely quantify the surrogate error, therefore it is chosen as metamodeling technique. Enhanced version of ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM) algorithm is used as main algorithm for model updating. The developed approach is applied to detect simulated damage in numerical models of 72-bar space truss and 120-bar dome truss. The simulation results show the proposed method can perform well in probability-based damage detection of structures with less computational effort compared to direct finite element model.

Keywords: probability-based damage detection (PBDD), Kriging, surrogate modeling, uncertainty quantification, artificial intelligence, enhanced ideal gas molecular movement (EIGMM)

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Authors: Everard van Kemenade

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Many quality improvement activities are planned. Leaders are strongly involved in missions, visions and strategic planning. They use, consciously or unconsciously, the PDCA-cycle, also know as the Deming cycle. After the planning, the plans are carried out and the results or effects are measured. If the results show that the goals in the plan have not been achieved, adjustments are made in the next plan or in the execution of the processes. Then, the cycle is run through again. Traditionally, the PDCA-cycle is advocated as a means to an end. However, PDCA is especially fit for planned, ordered, certain contexts. It fits with the empirical and referential quality paradigm. For uncertain, unordered, unplanned processes, something else might be needed instead of Plan-Do-Check-Act. Due to the complexity of our society, the influence of the context, and the uncertainty in our world nowadays, not every activity can be planned anymore. At the same time organisations need to be more innovative than ever. That provides leaders with ‘wicked tendencies’. However, that raises the question how one can innovate without being able to plan? Complexity science studies the interactions of a diverse group of agents that bring about change in times of uncertainty, e.g. when radical innovation is co-created. This process is called emergence. This research study explores the role of leadership in the emergence paradigm. Aim of the article is to study the way that leadership can support the emergence of innovation in a complex context. First, clarity is given on the concepts used in the research question: complexity, emergence, innovation and leadership. Thereafter a literature search is conducted to answer the research question. The topics ‘emergent leadership’ or ‘complexity leadership’ are chosen for an exploratory search in Google and Google Scholar using the berry picking method. Exclusion criterion is emergence in other disciplines than organizational development or in the meaning of ‘arising’. The literature search conducted gave 45 hits. Twenty-seven articles were excluded after reading the title and abstract because they did not research the topic of emergent leadership and complexity. After reading the remaining articles as a whole one more was excluded because the article used emergent in the limited meaning of ‗arising‘ and eight more were excluded because the topic did not match the research question of this article. That brings the total of the search to 17 articles. The useful conclusions from the articles are merged and grouped together under overarching topics, using thematic analysis. The findings are that 5 topics prevail when looking at possibilities for leadership to facilitate innovation: enabling, sharing values, dreaming, interacting, context sensitivity and adaptivity. Together they form In Dutch the acronym Medusa.

Keywords: complexity science, emergence, leadership in the emergence paradigm, innovation, the Medusa principles

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Authors: Abdelkader Merah, Kada Hartani

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A reference model based control approach for improving behavior following car is proposed in this paper. The reference model is nonlinear and provides dynamic solutions consistent with safety constraints and comfort specifications. a robust fuzzy logic based control strategy is further proposed in this paper. A set of simulation results showing the suitability of the proposed technique for various demanding cenarios is also included in this paper.

Keywords: reference model, longitudinal control, fuzzy logic, design of car

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Authors: Yen-Sheng Ho

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It is important to actively adjust the legal system of land use in archaeological sites and the reward system to meet the needs of modern society and to solve the dilemma of government management. Under the principle of administration according to law and the principle of the clarity of law, human rights, legal orders and legitimate expectation shall be regulated. The Cultural Heritage Preservation Act has many norms related to archaeological sites in Taiwan. However, in practice, the preservation of archaeological sites still encounters many challenges. For instance, some archaeological sites have ‘management and maintenance plans’. The restrictions of land uses are not clearly defined making it difficult to determine how planting types and cultivation methods will impact the underground relics. In addition, there are questions as follows. How to coordinate the ‘site preservation plan’ with the Regional Planning Act and the Urban Planning Act? How to define preservation of land, preservation area and other uses of land or area? How to define land use in practice? How to control land use? After selecting three sites for the case investigation, this study will analyze the site’s land use status and propose the direction of land use and control methods. This study suggests that the prerequisite to limit the use of land is to determine the public interest in the preservation of the site. Another prerequisite is to establish a mechanism for permitting the use of the site and for setting the site preservation and zoning maintenance practices according to the Regional Planning Act, Urban Planning Act and other relevant rules, such as, land use zoning, land use control, land management, land maintenance, regional development and management and etc.

Keywords: archaeological site, land use and site preservation plan, regional planning, urban planning

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Authors: Leng Jian-Wei, Wang Lai-Jun, Li Ye

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In order to measure and analyze the transportation situation within the counties of Shaanxi province over a certain period of time and to promote the province's future transportation planning and development, this paper proposes a reasonable layout plan and compares model rationality. The study uses entropy weight method to measure the transportation advantages of 107 counties in Shaanxi province from three dimensions: road network density, trunk line influence and location advantage in 2013 and 2021, and applies spatial autocorrelation analysis method to analyze the spatial layout and development trend of county-level transportation, and conducts ordinary least square (OLS)regression on transportation impact factors and other influencing factors. The paper also compares the regression fitting degree of the Geographically weighted regression(GWR) model and the OLS model. The results show that spatially, the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province generally show a decreasing trend from the Weihe Plain to the surrounding areas and mainly exhibit high-high clustering phenomenon. Temporally, transportation advantages show an overall upward trend, and the phenomenon of spatial imbalance gradually decreases. People's travel demands have changed to some extent, and the demand for rapid transportation has increased overall. The GWR model regression fitting degree of transportation advantages is 0.74, which is higher than the OLS regression model's fitting degree of 0.64. Based on the evolution of transportation advantages, it is predicted that this trend will continue for a period of time in the future. To improve the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province increasing the layout of rapid transportation can effectively enhance the transportation advantages of Shaanxi province. When analyzing spatial heterogeneity, geographic factors should be considered to establish a more reliable model

Keywords: traffic dominance, GWR model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, temporal and spatial evolution

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Authors: A. Ascenso, C. Silveira, B. Augusto, S. Rafael, S. Coelho, J. Ferreira, A. Monteiro, P. Roebeling, A. I. Miranda

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Innovative nature-based solutions (NBSs) can provide answers to the challenges that urban areas are currently facing due to urban densification and extreme weather conditions. The effects of NBSs are recognized and include improved quality of life, mental and physical health and improvement of air quality, among others. Part of the work developed in the scope of the UNaLab project, which aims to guide cities in developing and implementing their own co-creative NBSs, intends to assess the impacts of NBSs on air quality, using Eindhoven city as a case study. The state-of-the-art online air quality modelling system WRF-CHEM was applied to simulate meteorological and concentration fields over the study area with a spatial resolution of 1 km2 for the year 2015. The baseline simulation (without NBSs) was validated by comparing the model results with monitored data retrieved from the Eindhoven air quality database, showing an adequate model performance. In addition, land use changes were applied in a set of simulations to assess the effects of different types of NBSs. Finally, these simulations were compared with the baseline scenario and the impacts of the NBSs were assessed. Reductions on pollutant concentrations, namely for NOx and PM, were found after the application of the NBSs in the Eindhoven study area. The present work is particularly important to support public planners and decision makers in understanding the effects of their actions and planning more sustainable cities for the future.

Keywords: air quality, modelling approach, nature based solutions, urban area

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Authors: Zhen Wu, David Lupien St-Pierre, Georges Abdul-Nour

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In decision making under strict uncertainty, decision makers have to choose a decision without any information about the states of nature. The classic criteria of Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwicz and Starr are introduced and compared in a case study of sewer network planning. Furthermore, results from different criteria are discussed and analyzed. Moreover, this paper discusses the idea that decision making under strict uncertainty (DMUSU) can be viewed as a two-player game and thus be solved by a solution concept in game theory: Nash equilibrium.

Keywords: decision criteria, decision making, sewer network planning, decision making, strict uncertainty

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Authors: A. Lakrim, D. Tahri

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This paper sets out a behavioral macro-model of a Merged PiN and Schottky (MPS) diode based on silicon carbide (SiC). This model holds good for both static and dynamic electrothermal simulations for industrial applications. Its parameters have been worked out from datasheets curves by drawing on the optimization method: Simulated Annealing (SA) for the SiC MPS diodes made available in the industry. The model also adopts the Analog Behavioral Model (ABM) of PSPICE in which it has been implemented. The thermal behavior of the devices was also taken into consideration by making use of Foster’ canonical network as figured out from electro-thermal measurement provided by the manufacturer of the device.

Keywords: SiC MPS diode, electro-thermal, SPICE model, behavioral macro-model

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Authors: Hassan Karimi, Fred Piercy, Ruoxi Chen, Ana L. Jaramillo-Sierra, Wei-Ning Chang, Manjushree Palit, Catherine Martosudarmo, Angelito Antonio

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Background: The two psychotherapy camps, the randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and the common factors model, have competitively claimed specific explanations for therapy effectiveness. Recently, scholars called for empirical evidence to show the role of common factors in therapeutic outcome in marriage and family therapy. Purpose: This cross-national study aims to explore how clinicians, across different nations and theoretical orientations, attribute the contribution of common factors to therapy outcome. Method: A brief common factors questionnaire (CFQ-with a Cronbach’s Alpha, 0.77) was developed and administered in seven nations. A series of statistical analyses (paired-samples t-test, independent sample t-test, ANOVA) were conducted: to compare clinicians perceived contribution of total common factors versus model-specific factors, to compare each pair of common factors’ categories, and to compare clinicians from collectivistic nations versus clinicians from individualistic nation. Results: Clinicians across seven nations attributed 86% to common factors versus 14% to model-specific factors. Clinicians attributed 34% of therapeutic change to client’s factors, 26% to therapist’s factors, 26% to relationship factors, and 14% to model-specific techniques. The ANOVA test indicated each of the three categories of common factors (client 34%, therapist 26%, relationship 26%) showed higher contribution in therapeutic outcome than the category of model specific factors (techniques 14%). Clinicians with psychology degree attributed more contribution to model-specific factors than clinicians with MFT and counseling degrees who attributed more contribution to client factors. Clinicians from collectivistic nations attributed larger contributions to therapist’s factors (M=28.96, SD=12.75) than the US clinicians (M=23.22, SD=7.73). The US clinicians attributed a larger contribution to client’s factors (M=39.02, SD=1504) than clinicians from the collectivistic nations (M=28.71, SD=15.74). Conclusion: The findings indicate clinicians across the globe attributed more than two thirds of therapeutic change to CFs, which emphasize the training of the common factors model in the field. CFs, like model-specific factors, vary in their contribution to therapy outcome in relation to specific client, therapist, problem, treatment model, and sociocultural context. Sociocultural expectations and norms should be considered as a context in which both CFs and model-specific factors function toward therapeutic goals. Clinicians need to foster a cultural competency specifically regarding the divergent ways that CFs can be activated due to specific sociocultural values.

Keywords: common factors, model-specific factors, cross-national survey, therapist cultural competency, enhancing therapist efficacy

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Authors: Shan Jia, Jinbao Chen, Jinhua Zhou, Jiacheng Qian

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In response to the functional limitations of the fixed landers, those are to expand the detection range by the use of wheeled rovers with unavoidable path-repeatability in deep space exploration currently, a movable lander based on the leg-foot walking mechanism is presented. Firstly, a quadruped landing mechanism based on pushrod-damping is proposed. The configuration is of the bionic characteristics such as hip, knee and ankle joints, and the multi-function main/auxiliary buffers based on the crumple-energy absorption and screw-nut mechanism. Secondly, the workspace of the end of the leg-foot mechanism is solved by Monte Carlo method, and the key points on the desired trajectory of the end of the leg-foot mechanism are fitted by cubic spline curve. Finally, an optimal time-jerk trajectory based on weight coefficient is planned and analyzed by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA). The simulation results prove the rationality and stability of walking motion of the movable leg-foot lander in the star catalogue. In addition, this research can also provide a technical solution integrating of soft-landing, large-scale inspection and material transfer for future star catalogue exploration, and can even serve as the technical basis for developing the reusable landers.

Keywords: motion performance, trajectory planning, movable, leg-foot lander

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Authors: Hanadi Khadawardi

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The current study contributes to research on foreign/second language (L2) academic reading by presenting a significant case study, which seeks to investigate specific groups of international (Arab) postgraduate students’ L2 academic reading practices in the UK educational context. In particular, the study scrutinises postgraduate students’ L2 paper-based and digital-based academic reading strategies, and their use of digital aids while engaged in L2 academic reading. To this end, the study investigates Arab readers’ attitudes toward digital L2 academic reading. The study aims to compare between paper and digital L2 academic reading strategies that the students employ and which reading formats they prefer. This study tracks Masters-level students and examines the way in which their reading strategies and attitudes change throughout their Masters programme in the UK educational context. The academic reading strategies and attitudes of five students from four different disciplines (Health Science, Psychology, Management, and Education) are investigated at two points during their one-year Masters programmes. In addition, the study investigates the same phenomenon with 15 Saudi PhD students drawn from seven different disciplines (Computer Science, Engineering, Psychology, Management, Marketing, Health Science, and Applied Linguistics) at one period of their study in the same context. The study uses think-aloud protocol, field notes, stimulated recall, and semi-structured interviews to collect data. The data is analysed qualitatively. The results of the study will explain the process of learning in terms of reading L2 paper and digital academic texts in the L2 context.

Keywords: EFL: English as a foreign language, ESL: English as a second language, L: Language

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Authors: M. Uysal, M. Yilmaz, I. Tiryakioğlu

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Digital Terrain Model (DTM) is a digital numerical representation of the Earth's surface. DTMs have been applied to a diverse field of tasks, such as urban planning, military, glacier mapping, disaster management. In the expression of the Earth' surface as a mathematical model, an infinite number of point measurements are needed. Because of the impossibility of this case, the points at regular intervals are measured to characterize the Earth's surface and DTM of the Earth is generated. Hitherto, the classical measurement techniques and photogrammetry method have widespread use in the construction of DTM. At present, RADAR, LiDAR, and stereo satellite images are also used for the construction of DTM. In recent years, especially because of its superiorities, Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) has an increased use in DTM applications. A 3D point cloud is created with LiDAR technology by obtaining numerous point data. However recently, by the development in image mapping methods, the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for photogrammetric data acquisition has increased DTM generation from image-based point cloud. The accuracy of the DTM depends on various factors such as data collection method, the distribution of elevation points, the point density, properties of the surface and interpolation methods. In this study, the random data reduction method is compared for DTMs generated from image based point cloud data. The original image based point cloud data set (100%) is reduced to a series of subsets by using random algorithm, representing the 75, 50, 25 and 5% of the original image based point cloud data set. Over the ANS campus of Afyon Kocatepe University as the test area, DTM constructed from the original image based point cloud data set is compared with DTMs interpolated from reduced data sets by Kriging interpolation method. The results show that the random data reduction method can be used to reduce the image based point cloud datasets to 50% density level while still maintaining the quality of DTM.

Keywords: DTM, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), uniform, random, kriging

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Authors: Patrick Cummings, Laura Cassani, Deirdre Kelliher

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In this paper we present findings from a research effort to apply a hybrid collaborative-context approach for a system focused on Marine Corps civil affairs data collection, aggregation, and analysis called the Marine Civil Information Management System (MARCIMS). The goal of this effort is to provide operators with information to make sense of the interconnectedness of entities and relationships in their area of operation and discover existing data to support civil military operations. Our approach to build a recommendation engine was designed to overcome several technical challenges, including 1) ensuring models were robust to the relatively small amount of data collected by the Marine Corps civil affairs community; 2) finding methods to recommend novel data for which there are no interactions captured; and 3) overcoming confirmation bias by ensuring content was recommended that was relevant for the mission despite being obscure or less well known. We solve this by implementing a combination of collective matrix factorization (CMF) and graph-based random walks to provide recommendations to civil military operations users. We also present a method to resolve the challenge of computation complexity inherent from highly connected nodes through a precomputed process.

Keywords: Recommendation engine, collaborative filtering, context based recommendation, graph analysis, coverage, civil affairs operations, Marine Corps

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Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

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Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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Authors: Elahe Memari, Ahmad Aslizadeh, Ahmad Memari

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Today strategic planning is counted as the most important duties of senior directors in each organization. Strategic planning allows the organizations to implement compiled strategies and reach higher competitive benefits than their competitors. The present research work tries to prepare and rank the strategies form effective factors on strategic planning in fulfillment of the State Road Management and Transportation Organization in order to indicate the role of organizational factors in efficiency of the process to organization managers. Connection between six main factors in fulfillment of State Road Management and Transportation Organization were studied here, including Improvement of Strategic Thinking in senior managers, improvement of the organization business process, rationalization of resources allocation in different parts of the organization, coordination and conformity of strategic plan with organization needs, adjustment of organization activities with environmental changes, reinforcement of organizational culture. All said factors approved by implemented tests and then ranked using fuzzy multivariate decision-making technique.

Keywords: Fuzzy TOPSIS, improvement of organization business process, multivariate decision-making, strategic planning

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson innovations, conditional maximum likelihood, CML

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Authors: Ipek Kivanc, Demet Ozgur-Unluakin

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Over the past years, technological innovations and advancements have played an important role in the industrial world. Due to technological improvements, the degree of complexity of the systems has increased. Hence, all systems are getting more uncertain that emerges from increased complexity, resulting in more cost. It is challenging to cope with this situation. So, implementing efficient planning of maintenance activities in such systems are getting more essential. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are powerful tools for stochastic sequential decision problems under uncertainty. Although maintenance optimization in a dynamic environment can be modeled as such a sequential decision problem, POMDPs are not widely used for tackling maintenance problems. However, they can be well-suited frameworks for obtaining optimal maintenance policies. In the classical representation of the POMDP framework, the system is denoted by a single node which has multiple states. The main drawback of this classical approach is that the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. On the other side, factored representation of POMDPs enables to simplify the complexity of the states by taking advantage of the factored structure already available in the nature of the problem. The main idea of factored POMDPs is that they can be compactly modeled through dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), which are graphical representations for stochastic processes, by exploiting the structure of this representation. This study aims to demonstrate how maintenance planning of dynamic systems can be modeled with factored POMDPs. An empirical maintenance planning problem of a dynamic system consisting of four partially observable components deteriorating in time is designed. To solve the empirical model, we resort to Symbolic Perseus solver which is one of the state-of-the-art factored POMDP solvers enabling approximate solutions. We generate some more predefined policies based on corrective or proactive maintenance strategies. We execute the policies on the empirical problem for many replications and compare their performances under various scenarios. The results show that the computed policies from the POMDP model are superior to the others. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) under grant no: 117M587.

Keywords: factored representation, maintenance, multi-component system, partially observable Markov decision processes

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Authors: Emilie Vandevelde, Ellen Claes

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This study aims to develop a comprehensive model for the civic socialization process of teachers. Citizenship has become one of the main objectives for the European education systems. It is expected that teachers are well prepared and equipped with the necessary knowledge, skills, and attitudes to also engage students in democratic citizenship. While a lot is known about young peoples’ civic competence development and how schools and teachers (don’t) support this process, less is known about how teachers themselves engage with (the teaching of) civics. Other than the civic socialization process of young adolescents that focuses on personal competence development, the civic socialization process of teachers includes the development of professional, civic competences. These professional competences make that they are able to prepare pupils to carry out their civic responsibilities in thoughtful ways. Existing models for the civic socialization process of young adolescents do not take this dual purpose into account. Based on these observations, this paper will investigate (1)What personal and professional civic competences teachers need to effectively teach civic education and (2) how teachers acquire these personal and professional civic competences. To answer the first research question, a systematic review of literature of existing civic education frameworks was carried out and linked to literature on teacher training. The second research question was addressed by adapting the Octagon model, developed by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA), to the context of teachers. This was done by carrying out a systematic review of the recent literature linking three theoretical topics involved in teachers’ civic competence development: theories about the civic socialization process of young adolescents, Schulmans (1987) theoretical assumptions on pedagogical content knowledge (PCK), and Nogueira & Moreira’s (2012) framework for civic education teachers’ knowledge and literature on teachers’ professional development. This resulted in a comprehensive conceptual framework describing the personal and professional civic competences of civic education teachers. In addition, this framework is linked to the OctagonT model: a model that describes the processes through which teachers acquire these personal and professional civic competences. This model recognizes that teachers’ civic socialization process is influenced by interconnected variables located at different levels in a multi-level structure (the individual teacher (e.g., civic beliefs), everyday contacts (e.g., teacher educators, the intended, informal and hidden curriculum of the teacher training program, internship contacts, participation opportunities in teacher training, etc.) and the influence of the national educational context (e.g., vision on civic education)). Furthermore, implications for teacher education programs are described.

Keywords: civic education, civic competences, civic socialization, octagon model, teacher training

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Authors: Jinghui Wang, Minjie Xing

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The increasing number of international students for doctoral education has brought vitality and diversity to the educational environment in China, and at the same time constituted a new challenge to the English teaching in the higher education as the majority of international students come from developing countries where English is not their first language. To make their contribution to knowledge development and technical innovation, these international doctoral students need to present their research work in English, locally and globally. This study reports an exploratory study with an emphasis on the cognition and construction of academic discourse in the multicultural context. The present study aims to explore ways to better prepare them for international academic exchange in English. Voluntarily, all international doctoral students (n = 81) from 35 countries enrolled in the English Course: Speaking and Writing as a New Scientist, participated in the study. Two research questions were raised: 1) What did these doctoral students say about their cognition and construction of English academic discourses? 2) How did they manage to develop their productive skills in a multicultural context? To answer the research questions, data were collected from self-reports, in-depth interviews, and video-recorded class observations. The major findings of the study suggest that the participants to varying degrees benefitted from the cognition and construction of English academic discourse in the multicultural context. Specifically, 1) The cognition and construction of meta-discourse allowed them to construct their own academic discourses in English; 2) In the light of Swales’ CARS Model, they became sensitive to the “moves” involved in the published papers closely related to their study, and learned to use them in their English academic discourses; 3) Multimodality-driven presentation (multimedia modes) enabled these doctoral student to have their voice heard for technical innovation purposes; 4) Speaking as a new scientist, every doctoral student felt happy and able to serve as an intercultural mediator in the multicultural context, bridging the gap between their home culture and the global culture; and most importantly, 5) most of the participants reported developing an English discourse community among international doctoral students, becoming resourceful and productive in the multicultural context. It is concluded that the cognition and construction of academic discourse in the multicultural context proves to be conducive to the productivity and intercultural citizenship education of international doctoral students.

Keywords: academic discourse, international doctoral students, meta-discourse, multicultural context

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Authors: Frederik Schulte, Stefan Voß

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The adverse effects of air pollution on public health are an increasingly vital problem in planning for urban regions in many parts of the world. The issue is addressed from various angles and by distinct disciplines in research. Epidemiological studies model the relative increase of numerous diseases in response to an increment of different forms of air pollution. A significant share of air pollution in urban regions is related to transport emissions that are often measured and stored in emission inventories. Though, most approaches in transport planning, engineering, and operational design of transport activities are restricted to general emission limits for specific air pollutants and do not consider more nuanced exposure models. We conduct an extensive literature review on exposure models and emission inventories used to study the health impact of transport emissions. Furthermore, we review methods applied in both domains and use emission inventory data of transportation hubs such as ports, airports, and urban traffic for an in-depth analysis of public health impacts deploying medical exposure models. The results reveal specific urban health risks related to transport emissions that may improve urban planning for environmental health by providing insights in actual health effects instead of only referring to general emission limits.

Keywords: emission inventories, exposure models, transport emissions, urban health

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Authors: Daniel Fundi Murithi

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Missing data is a real bane in many surveys. To overcome the problems caused by missing data, partial deletion, and single imputation methods, among others, have been proposed. However, problems such as discarding usable data and inaccuracy in reproducing known population parameters and standard errors are associated with them. For regression and stochastic imputation, it is assumed that there is a variable with complete cases to be used as a predictor in estimating missing values in the other variable, and the relationship between the two variables is linear, which might not be realistic in practice. In this project, we estimate population total in presence of missing values in two-phase sampling. Instead of regression or stochastic models, non-parametric model based regression model is used in imputing missing values. Empirical study showed that nonparametric model-based regression imputation is better in reproducing variance of population total estimate obtained when there were no missing values compared to mean, median, regression, and stochastic imputation methods. Although regression and stochastic imputation were better than nonparametric model-based imputation in reproducing population total estimates obtained when there were no missing values in one of the sample sizes considered, nonparametric model-based imputation may be used when the relationship between outcome and predictor variables is not linear.

Keywords: finite population total, missing data, model-based imputation, two-phase sampling

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Authors: Soumen Mitra, Aparna Saha

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The perceived link between the city and the countryside is evolving rapidly and is getting shifted away from the assumptions of mainstream paradigms to new conceptual networks where rural-urban links are being redefined. In this conceptual field, the fringe interface is still considered as a transitional zone between city and countryside, and is defined as a diffused area rather than a discrete territory. In developing countries fringe areas are said to have both rural and urban characteristics but are devoid of basic municipal facilities. Again, when the urban core areas envelopes the fringe areas along with it the character of fringe changes but services are not well facilitated which in turn results to uneven growth, rapid and haphazard development. One of the major services present in fringe areas is inter-linkages in terms of transit corridors. Planning for the appropriate and sustainable future of fringe areas requires a sheer focus on these corridors pertaining to transit facility, for better accessibility and mobility. Inducing a transit facility plan enhances the various facilities and also increases their proximity for user groups. The study focuses on the western fringe region of Kolkata metropolis which is a major source of industrial hub and housing sector, thus converting the agricultural lands into non-agricultural use. The study emphasizes on providing transit facilities both physical (stops, sheds, terminals, etc.) and operational (ticketing system, route prioritization, integration of transit modes, etc.), to facilitate the region as well as accelerate the growth pattern systematically. Hence, the scope of this work is on the basis of prevailing conditions in fringe areas and attempts for an effective transit facility plan. The strategies and recommendations are in terms of road widening, service coverage, feeder route prioritization, bus stops facilitation, pedestrian facilities, etc, which in turn enhances the region’s growth pattern. Thus, this context of transit facility planning acts as a catalytic agent to avoid the future unplanned growth and accelerates it towards an integrated development.

Keywords: feeder route, fringe, municipal planning, transit facility

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Authors: Marinka K. Baghdasaryan, Siranush M. Muradyan, Avgen A. Gasparyan

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Based on the experimental data, the impact of resistance and reactance of the winding, as well as the magnetic permeability of the magnetic circuit steel material on the value of the electromotive force of the induction converter is investigated. The obtained results allow to estimate the main technological spreads and determine the maximum level of the electromotive force change. By the method of experiment planning, the expression of a polynomial for the electromotive force which can be used to estimate the adequacy of mathematical models to be used at the investigation and design of induction converters is obtained.

Keywords: induction converter, electromotive force, expectation, technological spread, deviation, planning an experiment, polynomial, confidence level

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