Search results for: variability compensation

Authors: Laila Khawaja

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In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on measuring program implementation, in part because of the great variability in how complex interventions are delivered in real-life settings. There is an increased awareness that while conducting process evaluations, one should aim to identify and understand the complexities of intervention if they are to be used for future intervention development or the strategies needed to implement the same intervention in a different setting. Complex interventions are public health interventions that are not drugs or surgical procedures but have many potential active aspects of intervention. In this paper, process evaluations are aligned with MRC guidelines to identify contextual factors related to outcomes to assess the quality of implementation. This paper briefly discusses the perceptions of research team on the implementation of the intervention of ‘Engaging Adolescents in Changing Behaviour’ (EACH-B), a school-based complex intervention study aiming to improve diet and physical activity among adolescents aged 12-13 years. Through qualitative interviews and focus groups with 10 staff members, we aimed to understand their experiences and reflections on implementing the EACH-B trial delivered in 49 Schools around Hampshire, England. Data were uploaded into NVivo, and analysis was conducted using thematic analysis. The investigation revealed two overarching themes: (a) how the communication patterns with teachers were impacted during the delivery of implementation and (b) what were the team’s strategies to keep logistics aligned with the research process that impacted the overall implementation of the trial. The paper informs adaptation strategies used by the research team to establish and maintain effective communication with the teachers as well as the thoughtfulness of the team’s logistic strategy for the successful delivery of the trial.

Keywords: complex interventions, process evaluation, adaptation strategies, randomised controlled trial

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Authors: Sameer Jung Karki, Gokhan Saygili

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The allowable bearing capacity of foundation systems is determined by applying a factor of safety to the ultimate bearing capacity. Conventional ultimate bearing capacity calculations routines are based on deterministic input parameters where the nonuniformity and inhomogeneity of soil and site properties are not accounted for. Hence, the laws of mathematics like probability calculus and statistical analysis cannot be directly applied to foundation engineering. It’s assumed that the Factor of Safety, typically as high as 3.0, incorporates the uncertainty of the input parameters. This factor of safety is estimated based on subjective judgement rather than objective facts. It is an ambiguous term. Hence, a probabilistic analysis of the bearing capacity of an isolated footing on a clayey soil is carried out by using the Monte Carlo Simulation method. This simulated model was compared with the traditional discrete model. It was found out that the bearing capacity of soil was found higher for the simulated model compared with the discrete model. This was verified by doing the sensitivity analysis. As the number of simulations was increased, there was a significant % increase of the bearing capacity compared with discrete bearing capacity. The bearing capacity values obtained by simulation was found to follow a normal distribution. While using the traditional value of Factor of safety 3, the allowable bearing capacity had lower probability (0.03717) of occurring in the field compared to a higher probability (0.15866), while using the simulation derived factor of safety of 1.5. This means the traditional factor of safety is giving us bearing capacity that is less likely occurring/available in the field. This shows the subjective nature of factor of safety, and hence probability method is suggested to address the variability of the input parameters in bearing capacity equations.

Keywords: bearing capacity, factor of safety, isolated footing, montecarlo simulation

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Authors: Rukayya Ibrahim Muazu, Aiduan Li Borrion, Julia A. Stegemann

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Biomass briquette gasification is regarded as a promising route for efficient briquette use in energy generation, fuels and other useful chemicals, however, previous research work has focused on briquette gasification in fixed bed gasifiers such as updraft and downdraft gasifiers. Fluidised bed gasifier has the potential to be effectively sized for medium or large scale. This study investigated the use of fuel briquettes produced from blends of rice husks and corn cobs biomass residues, in a bubbling fluidised bed gasifier. The study adopted a combination of numerical equations and Aspen Plus simulation software to predict the product gas (syngas) composition based on briquette's density and biomass composition (blend ratio of rice husks to corn cobs). The Aspen Plus model was based on an experimentally validated model from the literature. The results based on a briquette size of 32 mm diameter and relaxed density range of 500 to 650 kg/m3 indicated that fluidisation air required in the gasifier increased with an increase in briquette density, and the fluidisation air showed to be the controlling factor compared with the actual air required for gasification of the biomass briquettes. The mass flowrate of CO2 in the predicted syngas composition, increased with an increase in the air flow rate, while CO production decreased and H2 was almost constant. The H2/CO ratio for various blends of rice husks and corn cobs did not significantly change at the designed process air, but a significant difference of 1.0 for H2/CO ratio was observed at higher air flow rate, and between 10/90 to 90/10 blend ratio of rice husks to corn cobs. This implies the need for further understanding of biomass variability and hydrodynamic parameters on syngas composition in biomass briquette gasification.

Keywords: aspen plus, briquettes, fluidised bed, gasification, syngas

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Authors: Charles Amoo, Joshua New, Bill Eckman

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Buildings in the United States account for a significant proportion of energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and this trend is expected to continue as well as rise in the near future. Low-income households, in particular, bear a disproportionate burden of high building energy consumption and spending due to high energy costs. Energy efficiency improvements need to reach an average of 4% per year in this decade in order to meet global net zero emissions target by 2050, but less than 1 % of U.S. buildings are improved each year. The government has recognized the importance of technology in addressing this issue, and energy efficiency programs have been developed to tackle the problem. The Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP), the largest residential whole-house energy efficiency program in the U.S., is specifically designed to reduce energy costs for low-income households. Under the WAP, energy auditors must follow specific audit procedures and use Department of Energy (DOE) approved energy audit tools or software. This article proposes an expanded framework of factors that should be considered in energy audit software that is approved for use in energy efficiency programs, particularly for low-income households. The framework includes more than 50 factors organized under 14 assessment criteria and can be used to qualitatively and quantitatively score different energy audit software to determine their suitability for specific energy efficiency programs. While the tool can be useful for developers to build new tools and improve existing software, as well as for energy efficiency program administrators to approve or certify tools for use, there are limitations to the model, such as the lack of flexibility that allows continuous scoring to accommodate variability and subjectivity. These limitations can be addressed by using aggregate scores of each criterion as weights that could be combined with value function and direct rating scores in a multicriteria decision analysis for a more flexible scoring.

Keywords: buildings, energy efficiency, energy audit, software

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Authors: Minjung Park, Sangmi Chai, Myoung Jun Lee

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Since there are growing concerns on online privacy, enterprises could involve various personal privacy infringements cases resulting legal causations. For companies that are involving online business, it is important for them to pay extra attentions to protect users’ privacy. If firms can aware consequences from possible online privacy invasion cases, they can more actively prevent future online privacy infringements. This study attempts to predict the probability of ruling types caused by various invasion cases under U.S Personal Privacy Act. More specifically, this research explores online privacy invasion cases which was sentenced guilty to identify types of criminal punishments such as penalty, imprisonment, probation as well as compensation in civil cases. Based on the 853 U.S judicial cases ranged from January, 2000 to May, 2016, which related on data privacy, this research examines the relationship between personal information infringements cases and adjudications. Upon analysis results of 41,724 words extracted from 853 regal cases, this study examined online users’ privacy invasion cases to predict the probability of conviction for a firm as an offender in both of criminal and civil law. This research specifically examines that a cause of privacy infringements and a judgment type, whether it leads a civil or criminal liability, from U.S court. This study applies network text analysis (NTA) for data analysis, which is regarded as a useful method to discover embedded social trends within texts. According to our research results, certain online privacy infringement cases caused by online spamming and adware have a high possibility that firms are liable in the case. Our research results provide meaningful insights to academia as well as industry. First, our study is providing a new insight by applying Big Data analytics to legal cases so that it can predict the cause of invasions and legal consequences. Since there are few researches applying big data analytics in the domain of law, specifically in online privacy, this study suggests new area that future studies can explore. Secondly, this study reflects social influences, such as a development of privacy invasion technologies and changes of users’ level of awareness of online privacy on judicial cases analysis by adopting NTA method. Our research results indicate that firms need to improve technical and managerial systems to protect users’ online privacy to avoid negative legal consequences.

Keywords: network text analysis, online privacy invasions, personal information infringements, predicting judgements

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Authors: Dong Tran, Thanh Dac Van, Ly Le

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Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) play an important role in host immune evasion across influenza virus evolution process. The correlation between HA and NA evolution in respect to epitopic evolution and drug interaction has yet to be investigated. In this study, combining of sequence to structure evolution and statistical analysis on epitopic/binding site specificity, we identified potential therapeutic features of HA and NA that show specific antibody binding site of HA and specific binding distribution within NA active site of current inhibitors. Our approach introduces the use of sequence variation and molecular interaction to provide an effective strategy in establishing experimental based distributed representations of protein-protein/ligand complexes. The most important advantage of our method is that it does not require complete dataset of complexes but rather directly inferring feature interaction from sequence variation and molecular interaction. Using correlated sequence analysis, we additionally identified co-evolved mutations associated with maintaining HA/NA structural and functional variability toward immunity and therapeutic treatment. Our investigation on the HA binding specificity revealed unique conserved stalk domain interacts with unique loop domain of universal antibodies (CR9114, CT149, CR8043, CR8020, F16v3, CR6261, F10). On the other hand, NA inhibitors (Oseltamivir, Zaninamivir, Laninamivir) showed specific conserved residue contribution and similar to that of NA substrate (sialic acid) which can be exploited for drug design. Our study provides an important insight into rational design and identification of novel therapeutics targeting universally recognized feature of influenza HA/NA.

Keywords: influenza virus, hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), sequence evolution

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Authors: Rachel Wachtendonk, John Calambokidis, Kiirsten Flynn

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Large marine mammals can serve as an indicator of the overall state of the environment due to their long lifespan and apex position in marine food webs. Reductions in prey, driven by changes in environmental conditions can have resounding impacts on the trophic system as a whole; this can manifest in reduced fat stores that are visible on large whales. Poor health can lead to reduced survivorship and fitness, both of which can be detrimental to a recovering population. A non-invasive technique was used for monitoring blue whale health and for seeing if it changes with ocean conditions. Digital photographs of blue whales taken in the NE Pacific by Cascadia Research and collaborators from 2005-2018 (n=3,545) were scored for overall body condition based on visible vertebrae and body shape on a scale of 0-3 where a score of 0 indicated best body condition and a score of 3 indicated poorest. The data was analyzed to determine if there were patterns in the health of whales across years and whether overall poor health was related to oceanographic conditions and predictors of prey abundance on the California coast. The year was a highly significant factor in body condition (Chi-Square, p<0.001). The proportion of whales showing poor body condition (scores 2 & 3) overall was 33% but by year varied widely from a low of 18% (2008) to a high of 55% (2015). The only two years where >50% of animals had poor body condition were 2015 and 2017 (no other year was above 45%). The 2015 maximum proportion of whales in poor body condition coincide with the marine heat wave that affected the NE Pacific 2014-16 and impacted other whale populations. This indicates that the scoring method was an effective way to evaluate blue whale health and how they respond to a changing ocean.

Keywords: blue whale, body condition, environmental variability, photo-identification

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Authors: Sami M. Alshareef

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In the rapidly evolving energy landscape, the integration of renewable energy sources and the electrification of transportation are essential steps toward achieving sustainability goals. However, these advancements introduce new challenges, particularly in maintaining frequency stability due to variable photovoltaic (PV) generation and the growing demand for fast charging stations. The variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to weather conditions can disrupt the balance between generation and load, resulting in frequency deviations. To ensure the stability of power systems, it is imperative to develop effective under frequency load-shedding schemes. This research proposal presents an adaptive under-frequency load shedding scheme based on the power swing equation, designed explicitly for the IEEE-9 Bus Test System, that includes PV generation and fast charging stations. This research aims to address these challenges by developing an advanced scheme that dynamically disconnects fast charging stations based on power imbalances. The scheme prioritizes the disconnection of stations near affected areas to expedite system frequency stabilization. To achieve these goals, the research project will leverage the power swing equation, a widely recognized model for analyzing system dynamics during under-frequency events. By utilizing this equation, the proposed scheme will adaptively adjust the load-shedding process in real-time to maintain frequency stability and prevent power blackouts. The research findings will support the transition towards sustainable energy systems by ensuring a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply while enhancing the resilience and stability of power systems during under-frequency events.

Keywords: load shedding, fast charging stations, pv generation, power system resilience

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Authors: Barakat Adebisi Raji

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In the workplace, Artificial Intelligence has, in recent years, emerged as a transformative technology that revolutionizes how organizations operate and perform tasks. It is a technology that has a significant impact on transportation, manufacturing, education, cyber security, robotics, agriculture, healthcare, and so many other organizations. By harnessing AI technology, workplaces can enhance productivity, streamline processes, and make more informed decisions. Given the potential of AI to change the way we work and its impact on the labor market in years to come, employers understand that it entails legal challenges and risks despite the advantages inherent in it. Therefore, as AI continues to integrate into various aspects of the workplace, understanding the legal and ethical implications becomes paramount. Also central to this study is the question of who is held liable where AI makes any defaults; the person (company) who created the AI, the person who programmed the AI algorithm or the person who uses the AI? Thus, the aim of this paper is to provide a detailed overview of how AI-related liabilities are addressed under each legal tradition and shed light on potential areas of accord and divergence between the two legal cultures. The objectives of this paper are to (i) examine the ability of Common law and Islamic law to accommodate the issues and damage caused by AI in the workplace and the legality of compensation for such injury sustained; (ii) to discuss the extent to which AI can be described as a legal personality to bear responsibility: (iii) examine the similarities and disparities between Common Law and Islamic Jurisprudence on the liability of AI in the workplace. The methodology adopted in this work was qualitative, and the method was purely a doctrinal research method where information is gathered from the primary and secondary sources of law, such as comprehensive materials found in journal articles, expert-authored books and online news sources. Comparative legal method was also used to juxtapose the approach of Islam and Common Law. The paper concludes that since AI, in its current legal state, is not recognized as a legal entity, operators or manufacturers of AI should be held liable for any damage that arises, and the determination of who bears the responsibility should be dependent on the circumstances surrounding each scenario. The study recommends the granting of legal personality to AI systems, the establishment of legal rights and liabilities for AI, the establishment of a holistic Islamic virtue-based AI ethics framework, and the consideration of Islamic ethics.

Keywords: AI, health- care, agriculture, cyber security, common law, Shari'ah

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Authors: Juan Carlos Rubio Romero, Francico Salguero Caparros, Virginia Herrera-Pérez

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No one is in the slightest doubt about the high levels of risk involved in work in the construction industry. They are even higher in structural construction work. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) is a semi-structured interview technique that uses cognitive tests to identify the different disturbances that workers have to deal with in their work activity. At present, the vision of safety focused on daily performance and things that go well for safety and health management is facing the new paradigm known as Resilience Engineering. The aim of this study has been to describe the variability in formwork labour on concrete structures in the construction industry and, from there, to find out the resilient attitude of workers to unexpected events that they have experienced during their working lives. For this purpose, a series of semi-structured interviews were carried out with construction employees with extensive experience in formwork labour in Spain by applying the Critical Decision Method. This work has been the first application of the Critical Decision Method in the field of construction and, more specifically, in the execution of structures. The results obtained show that situations categorised as unthought-of are identified to a greater extent than potentially unexpected situations. The identification during these interviews of both expected and unexpected events provides insight into the critical decisions made and actions taken to improve resilience in daily practice in this construction work. From this study, it is clear that it is essential to gain more knowledge about the nature of the human cognitive process in work situations within complex socio-technical systems such as construction sites. This could lead to a more effective design of workplaces in the search for improved human performance.

Keywords: resilience engineering, construction industry, unthought-of situations, critical decision method

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Authors: Oliveira M., Gonçalves L., Francisco I., Caramelo F., Vale F., Sanz D., Domingues M., Lopes M., Moreia D., Lopes T., Santos T., Cardoso H.

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The ARTHUR project consists of a platform that allows the virtual performance of maxillofacial surgeries, offering, in a photorealistic concept, the possibility for the patient to have an idea of the surgical changes before they are performed on their face. For this, the system brings together several image formats, dicoms and objs that, after loading, will generate the bone volume, soft tissues and hard tissues. The system also incorporates the patient's stereophotogrammetry, in addition to their data and clinical history. After loading and inserting data, the clinician can virtually perform the surgical operation and present the final result to the patient, generating a new facial surface that contemplates the changes made in the bone and tissues of the maxillary area. This tool acts in different situations that require facial reconstruction, however this project focuses specifically on two types of use cases: bone congenital disfigurement and acquired disfiguration such as oral cancer with bone attainment. Being developed a cloud based solution, with mobile support, the tool aims to reduce the decision time window of patient. Because the current simulations are not realistic or, if realistic, need time due to the need of building plaster models, patient rates on decision, rely on a long time window (1,2 months), because they don’t identify themselves with the presented surgical outcome. On the other hand, this planning was performed time based on average estimated values of the position of the maxilla and mandible. The team was based on averages of the facial measurements of the population, without specifying racial variability, so the proposed solution was not adjusted to the real individual physiognomic needs.

Keywords: 3D computing, image processing, image registry, image reconstruction

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Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi

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The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.

Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature

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Authors: Vitus Onyebuchim Onyemailu, Olive Obianuju Okalibe

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The study tried to examine relationship between exchange rate variations on the balance of payments in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. Using time series on econometric measures such as Granger causality and ordinary least square (OLS), the study found that exchange rate movements especially the depreciation of naira has not contributed significantly on the balance of payments under the year of the study. The granger result conform the Marshall-Lerner short and long run prepositions that exchange rate devaluation enhances balance of payments. On disaggregation exchange rate granger causes current and capital account balances give the Nigeria data from 1970 to 2012. Overall in the long run OLS regression analysis, exchange rate on semi log functional form, exchange rate variation did not record significant effect on balance of payment equation. This height was also maintained in the current or trade balance which does not match the Marshall-Lerner. The capital account balance in reverse reported a significant impact of exchange rate variability on the capital account balance. Finally, on exchange rate determination equation, where many fundamentals were considered including lagged of exchange rate. Thus, the lagged of exchange rate recorded a positive and significant influence on the present exchange rate. This means that players in the financial markets usually out plays authority’s policy’s stances through their speculative tendencies. The work therefore, recommend that effort should be made by the authorities to providing enabling environment for production of goods and services to triumph in order to take advantages of steady devaluation of its currency. This is done by providing infrastructure, provision of science and technology. Thus, when this is done Nigeria would be able to have competitive power against the rest of the world.

Keywords: exchange rate variation, balance of payments, current account, capital account, Marshall-Lerner hypothesis

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Authors: Anjali Kanagali, Astha Sinha

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Climate change is the greatest threat being faced by mankind in the 21st century. It no longer is merely an environmental, scientific or economic issue but is a humanitarian issue as well. Paris Agreement put great pressure on the businesses to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change. However, the already increased climate variability and extreme weather are aggravating emergency humanitarian needs. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if efficient policy changes are not made in time to combat the climate change issues, the situation will deteriorate with an estimated global temperature rise of 4 degrees. The existing international network of Humanitarian system is not adequately structured to handle the projected natural disasters and climate change crisis. The 2030 Agenda which embraces the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) discussed the relationship between the climate change and humanitarian assistance. The Humanitarian law aims to protect, amongst other things, ‘internally displaced persons’ which includes people displaced due to natural hazard related disasters engulfing the hazards of climate change. ‘Legal protection’ of displaced people to protect their rights is becoming a pressing need in such times. In this paper, attempts will be made to analyze the causes of the displacement, identify areas where the effect of the climate change is most likely to occur and to examine the character of forced displacement triggering population movement. We shall discuss the pressure on the Humanitarian system and assistance due to climate change issues and the need for vesting powers to the local communities or local government players to deal with the climate changes. We shall also discuss the possibility of setting up a new framework where non-state actors could be set up for climate change impact and its governance.

Keywords: humanitarian assistance to climate change, humanitarian crisis, internally displaced person, legal framework for climate migrants, non-state actors

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Authors: Yasin Ibrahim, Hisham Almohandes, Chia Hsu, Regina Baronia, Jesse Worsham, Sara Abdelgawad, Mansour Shawky, Mohammed Abdelfattah, Nesif Alhemiary

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Background: The matrix model (MM) is an evidence-based program for treating substance use disorders. Since first translated into Arabic in 2010, the MM has been gaining popularity in Arabic countries. However, there is no published data as pertains to its efficacy and feasibility in Arabic communities. Here we aimed at exploring providers’ perspectives on its feasibility and efficacy. Methods: Eight addiction treatment centers from four Arabic countries, namely Egypt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq, were contacted via email. They were asked to fill in a 21-item questionnaire. Results: Matrix model continues to be utilized in 6 out of the 8 contacted programs. One center in Egypt has discontinued the MM as the providers felt it was not suitable for substance disorders other than stimulants, which are not common in Egypt. Baghdad University Medical Center has substituted MM with Colombo Program as there have been more training opportunities available for it. Data showed wide variability in regards to number of clients treated with the MM (from 300 to 2500). The Arabic version was utilized for training providers in 5 out of the 8 centers while the providers of the other 3 have been trained in the United States. All providers reported that MM made their job significantly easier, and seven providers believed that MM has favorably affected the relapse rate. In all of the six centers, MM is being utilized for many substance use disorders in addition to stimulant use disorders. Reported challenges included the acceptability of patients and their families, difficulty understanding some concepts, and high drop rates in some centers. Conclusion: Matrix model seems to be a valuable modality for the treatment of substance use disorders in Arabic countries. It has its own challenges and limitations that call for more culturally adapted versions.

Keywords: addiction, Arabic countries, developing countries, matrix model

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Authors: Lubena Achmad, Herman Kristanto, Julian Dewantiningrum

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Background: The Bishop score is a standard method used to predict the success of induction. This examination tends to be subjective with high inter and intraobserver variability, so it was presumed to have a low predictive value in terms of the outcome of labor induction. Cervical length measurement using transvaginal ultrasound is considered to be more objective to assess the cervical length. Meanwhile, this examination is not a complicated procedure and less invasive than vaginal touché. Objective: To compare transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score in predicting successful induction. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study. One hundred and twenty women with singleton pregnancies undergoing induction of labor at 37 – 42 weeks and met inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. Cervical assessment by both transvaginal ultrasound and Bishop score were conducted prior induction. The success of labor induction was defined as an ability to achieve active phase ≤ 12 hours after induction. To figure out the best cut-off point of cervical length and Bishop score, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine which factors best-predicted induction success. Results: This study showed significant differences in terms of age, premature rupture of the membrane, the Bishop score, cervical length and funneling as significant predictors of successful induction. Using ROC curves found that the best cut-off point for prediction of successful induction was 25.45 mm for cervical length and 3 for Bishop score. Logistic regression was performed and showed only premature rupture of membranes and cervical length ≤ 25.45 that significantly predicted the success of labor induction. By excluding premature rupture of the membrane as the indication of induction, cervical length less than 25.3 mm was a better predictor of successful induction. Conclusion: Compared to Bishop score, cervical length using transvaginal ultrasound was a better predictor of successful induction.

Keywords: Bishop Score, cervical length, induction, successful induction, transvaginal sonography

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Authors: Nik Smits, Stijn Goeminne

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Despite the extensive literature on the relation between crime and migration, not much is known about how crime affects the tax capacity of local communities. This paper empirically investigates whether the Flemish local income tax base yield is sensitive to changes in the local crime level. The underlying assumptions are threefold. In a Tiebout world, rational voters holding the local government accountable for the safety of its citizens, move out when the local level of security gets too much alienated from what they want it to be (first assumption). If migration is due to crime, then the more wealthy citizens are expected to move first (second assumption). Looking for a place elsewhere implies transaction costs, which the more wealthy citizens are more likely to be able to pay. As a consequence, the average income per capita and so the income distribution will be affected, which in turn, will influence the local income tax base yield (third assumption). The decreasing average income per capita, if not compensated by increasing earnings by the citizens that are staying or by the new citizens entering the locality, must result in a decreasing local income tax base yield. In the absence of a higher level governments’ compensation, decreasing local tax revenues could prove to be disastrous for a crime-ridden municipality. When communities do not succeed in forcing back the number of offences, this can be the onset of a cumulative process of urban deterioration. A spatial panel data model containing several proxies for the local level of crime in 306 Flemish municipalities covering the period 2000-2014 is used to test the relation between crime and the local income tax base yield. In addition to this direct relation, the underlying assumptions are investigated as well. Preliminary results show a modest, but positive relation between local violent crime rates and the efflux of citizens, persistent up until a 2 year lag. This positive effect is dampened by possible increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities. The change in violent crimes -and to a lesser extent- thefts and extortions reduce the influx of citizens with a one year lag. Again this effect is diminished by external effects from neighboring municipalities, meaning that increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities (especially violent crimes) have a positive effect on the local influx of citizens. Crime also has a depressing effect on the average income per capita within a municipality, whereas increasing crime rates in neighboring municipalities increase it. Notwithstanding the previous results, crime does not seem to significantly affect the local tax base yield. The results suggest that the depressing effect of crime on the income basis has to be compensated by a limited, but a wealthier influx of new citizens.

Keywords: crime, local taxes, migration, Tiebout mobility

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Authors: Meryem Zarri, Mohame Tahiri, Fouad Amraoui

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In the context of water resources shortage that Morocco is experiencing in recent years, the mobilization of non-conventional resources becomes a necessity. The reuse of treated water and the bioconversion of biological sewage sludge into value-added products is considered an environmentally friendly and economical approach to the management of this significant resource which represent at least 80 % of consumed fresh wate In this work, we compare the quality of treated water and sewage sludge from wastewater treatment plants in the peri-urban Casablanca by analyzing different physicochemical and bacteriological parameters. The choice was made for three wastewater plants installed in different regions and monitored either by LYDEC and Commune of Had Soualem and use different technologies. Recycling of treated water in agriculture and watering of green spaces is dependent on the compliance of the parameters with international standards (WHO, FAO, …etc.) The preliminary tests of the samples taken during the second half of the year 2021 showed that the advanced technologies put in place at the level of the Mediouna and the airport zone stations (membrane reactor and activated sludge, respectively) give water to the output of the stations more respectful of the standards required in terms of physicochemical parameters (pH, Conductivity, Tubidity, COD, BOD5, TNK, and TPK) and bacteriological (fecal germs, Escherichia Coli, streptococci, Helminthes eggs). The parameters relating to the Had Soualem natural lagoon station are generally at the tolerance’s threshold. The results of analyzes relating to the residual sludge collected at the end of the cycle are, on the whole satisfactory despite a fluctuating variability of the bacteriological parameters.

Keywords: urban wastewater treatment plants, purified wastewater, sewage sludge, physicochemical parameters, bacteriological parameters, peri-urban area of ​​casablanca, morocco

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Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

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River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, multivariate statistical techniques, river Hindon, water quality

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Authors: Muhammad Hakim Bin Mat Tasir, Erwan Shahfizad Hasidan, Hamidah Makmor Bakry, M. Hafiz B. Izhar

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Every key performance indicator used to monitor a project’s construction progress emphasizes trade productivity or specific commodity run-down curves. Examples include the productivity of welding by the number of joints completed per day, quantity of NDT (Non-Destructive Tests) inspection per day, etc. This perspective is based on progress and productivity; however, it does not enable a system perspective of how we produce. This paper uses a project production system perspective by which projects are a collection of production systems comprising the interconnected network of processes and operations that represent all the work activities to execute a project from start to finish. Furthermore, it also uses the 5 Levels of production system optimization as a frame. The goal of the paper is to describe the application of Project Production Control (PPC) to control and improve the performance of several production processes associated with the fabrication and assembly of a Central Processing Platform (CPP) Jacket, part of an offshore mega project. More specifically, the fabrication and assembly of buoyancy tanks as they were identified as part of the critical path and required the highest demand for capacity. In total, seven buoyancy tanks were built, with a total estimated weight of 2,200 metric tons. These huge buoyancy tanks were designed to be reversed launching and self-upending of the jacket, easily retractable, and reusable for the next project, ensuring sustainability. Results showed that an effective application of PPC not only positively impacted construction progress and productivity but also exposed sources of detrimental variability as the focus of continuous improvement practices. This approach augmented conventional project management practices, and the results had a high impact on construction scheduling, planning, and control.

Keywords: offshore, construction, project management, sustainability

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Authors: Rotimi Sunday Ajani, Omowumi Femi-Akinlosotu

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Background: The usually paired human kidneys are retroperitoneal urinary organs with some endocrine functions. Standard text books of anatomy ascribe single value to each of the dimension of length, width and thickness. Research questions: These values do not give consideration to racial and genetic variability in human morphology. They may thus be erroneous to students and clinicians working on Nigerians. Objectives: The study aimed at establishing reference values of the kidney length, width and thickness for Nigerians using the cadaveric model. Methodology: The length, width, thickness and weight of sixty kidneys harvested from cadavers of thirty adult Nigerians (Male: Female; 27: 3) were measured. Respective volume was calculated using the ellipsoid formula. Results: The mean length of the kidney was 9.84±0.89 cm (9.63±0.88 {right}; 10.06±0.86 {left}), width- 5.18±0.70 cm (5.21±0.72 {right}; 5.14±0.70 {left}), thickness-3.45±0.56 cm (3.36±0.58 {right}, 3.53±0.55 {left}), weight-125.06±22.34 g (122.36±21.70 {right}; 127.76 ±24.02 {left}) and volume of 95.45± 24.40 cm3 (91.73± 26.84 {right}; 99.17± 25.75 {left}). Discussion: Though the values of the parameters measured were higher for the left kidney (except for the width), they were not statistically significant. The various parameters obtained by this study differ from those of similar studies from other continents. Conclusion: Stating single value for each of the parameter of length, width and thickness of the kidney as currently obtained in textbooks of anatomy may be incomplete information and hence misleading. Thus, there is the need to emphasize racial differences when stating the normal values of kidney dimensions in textbooks of anatomy. Implication for Research and Innovation: The results of the study showed the dimensions of the kidney (length, width and thickness) have interracial vagaries as they were different from those of similar studies and values stated in standard textbooks of human anatomy. Future direction: This is a preliminary report and the study will continue so that more data will be obtained.

Keywords: kidney dimensions, cadaveric estimation, adult nigerians, racial differences

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Authors: Agata Krawczyk-Ozog, Mateusz K. Holda, Mateusz Koziej, Danuta Sorysz, Zbigniew Siudak, Wieslawa Klimek-Piotrowska, Dariusz Dudek

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Introduction: Rapid development of the surgical and less-invasive percutaneous mitral valve repair procedures greatly increase the interest of the mitral valve anatomy. The aim of this study was to characterize morphological variability of the mitral valve leaflets and to provide the size of their particular parts. Materials and Methods: In the study, we included 200 autopsied human hearts from Caucasian individuals (25% females) with mean age 47.5 (±17.9) without any valvular diseases. The morphology of the mitral valve was evaluated. The intercommissural and aorto-mural diameters of the mitral annulus were measured. All leaflets and their scallops were identified. The base and the height of the posteromedial commissure (PM-C), anterolateral commissure (AL-C), anterior leaflet (AL) and posterior leaflet (PL) with their scallops were measured. Results: The intercommissural diameter was 28.0±4.8 mm, the aorto-mural diameter 19.7±4.8 mm, circumference of the mitral annulus 89.9±12.6 mm and the area of the mitral valve 485.4±171.4 mm2. Classical mitral valves (AL+AL-C+PL(P1,P2,P3)+PM-C) were found in 141 (70.5%) specimens. In classical type, the mean AL base and height were 30.8±4.9 mm and 20.6±4.2 mm, while mean PL base and height 45.1±8.2 mm 12.9±2.8 mm respectively. The mean ratio of the AL base to PL base was 0.7±0.2. Variations in PL were found in 55 (27.5%) and in AL in 5 (2.5%) hearts. The most common variations were: valve with one accessory scallop (AcS) between P3 and PM-C (7%); AcS between P1 and AL-C (4%); connections of P2 and P3 scallops (4%); connections of P1 and P2 scallops (3%); AcS in AL (2.5%). All AcS were smaller than the main PL scallops. The mean intertrigonal distance was 21.9±3.8 mm. Conclusions: In all cases, the mitral valve is built by two main leaflets with possible variants in secondary to leaflets scallops (29.5%). The variations are largely associated with PL and are mostly related to the presence of AcS. Anatomically the AL is not divided into scallops, and it occupies 34.5% of the mitral annulus circumference. Understanding the anatomy of the mitral valve leaflets helps to planning and performing mitral valve repair procedures.

Keywords: accessory scallop, commissure, connected scallops, human heart, mitral leaflets, mitral valve

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Authors: H. Abas Nejad, A. R. Teymoori

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Facial expression recognition is one of the open problems in computer vision. Robust neutral face recognition in real time is a major challenge for various supervised learning based facial expression recognition methods. This is due to the fact that supervised methods cannot accommodate all appearance variability across the faces with respect to race, pose, lighting, facial biases, etc. in the limited amount of training data. Moreover, processing each and every frame to classify emotions is not required, as the user stays neutral for the majority of the time in usual applications like video chat or photo album/web browsing. Detecting neutral state at an early stage, thereby bypassing those frames from emotion classification would save the computational power. In this work, we propose a light-weight neutral vs. emotion classification engine, which acts as a preprocessor to the traditional supervised emotion classification approaches. It dynamically learns neutral appearance at Key Emotion (KE) points using a textural statistical model, constructed by a set of reference neutral frames for each user. The proposed method is made robust to various types of user head motions by accounting for affine distortions based on a textural statistical model. Robustness to dynamic shift of KE points is achieved by evaluating the similarities on a subset of neighborhood patches around each KE point using the prior information regarding the directionality of specific facial action units acting on the respective KE point. The proposed method, as a result, improves ER accuracy and simultaneously reduces the computational complexity of ER system, as validated on multiple databases.

Keywords: neutral vs. emotion classification, Constrained Local Model, procrustes analysis, Local Binary Pattern Histogram, statistical model

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Dong Jiang

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Turnout is the essential equipment on the railway, which also belongs to one of the strongest demanded infrastructural facilities of railway on account of the more seriously frog rail failures. In cooperation with Germany Company (DB Systemtechnik AG), our research team focuses on the quantitative analysis about the frog rails to predict their lifetimes. Moreover, the suggestions for the timely and effective maintenances are made to improve the economy of the frog rails. The lifetime of the frog rail depends strongly on the internal damage of the running surface until the breakages occur. On the basis of Hertzian theory of the contact mechanics, the dynamic loads of the running surface are calculated in form of the contact pressures on the running surface and the equivalent tensile stress inside the running surface. According to material mechanics, the strength of the frog rail is determined quantitatively in form of the Stress-cycle (S-N) curve. Under the interaction between the dynamic loads and the strength, the internal damage of the running surface is calculated by means of the linear damage hypothesis of the Miner’s rule. The emergence of the first Breakage on the running surface is to be defined as the failure criterion that the damage degree equals 1.0. From the microscopic perspective, the running surface of the frog rail is divided into numerous segments for the detailed analysis. The internal damage of the segment grows slowly in the beginning and disproportionately quickly in the end until the emergence of the breakage. From the macroscopic perspective, the internal damage of the running surface develops simply always linear along the lifetime. With this linear growth of the internal damages, the lifetime of the frog rail could be predicted simply through the immediate introduction of the slope of the linearity. However, the superficial abrasion plays an essential role in the results of the internal damages from the both perspectives. The influences of the superficial abrasion on the lifetime are described in form of the abrasion rate. It has two contradictory effects. On the one hand, the insufficient abrasion rate causes the concentration of the damage accumulation on the same position below the running surface to accelerate the rail failure. On the other hand, the excessive abrasion rate advances the disappearance of the head hardened surface of the frog rail to result in the untimely breakage on the surface. Thus, the relationship between the abrasion rate and the lifetime is subdivided into an initial phase of the increased lifetime and a subsequent phase of the more rapid decreasing lifetime with the continuous growth of the abrasion rate. Through the compensation of these two effects, the critical abrasion rate is discussed to reach the optimal lifetime.

Keywords: breakage, critical abrasion rate, frog rail, internal damage, optimal lifetime

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Authors: Shang-Yu Chiang, Yu-Shan Tsai, Shih-Hsien Sung, Chung-Ming Lo

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Mitral regurgitation (MR) is a heart disorder which the mitral valve does not close properly when the heart pumps out blood. MR is the most common form of valvular heart disease in the adult population. The diagnostic echocardiographic finding of MR is straightforward due to the well-known clinical evidence. In the determination of MR severity, quantification of sonographic findings would be useful for clinical decision making. Clinically, the vena contracta is a standard for MR evaluation. Vena contracta is the point in a blood stream where the diameter of the stream is the least, and the velocity is the maximum. The quantification of vena contracta, i.e. the vena contracta width (VCW) at mitral valve, can be a numeric measurement for severity assessment. However, manually delineating the VCW may not accurate enough. The result highly depends on the operator experience. Therefore, this study proposed an automatic method to quantify VCW to evaluate MR severity. Based on color Doppler ultrasound, VCW can be observed from the blood flows to the probe as the appearance of red or yellow area. The corresponding brightness represents the value of the flow rate. In the experiment, colors were firstly transformed into HSV (hue, saturation and value) to be closely align with the way human vision perceives red and yellow. Using ellipse to fit the high flow rate area in left atrium, the angle between the mitral valve and the ultrasound probe was calculated to get the vertical shortest diameter as the VCW. Taking the manual measurement as the standard, the method achieved only 0.02 (0.38 vs. 0.36) to 0.03 (0.42 vs. 0.45) cm differences. The result showed that the proposed automatic VCW extraction can be efficient and accurate for clinical use. The process also has the potential to reduce intra- or inter-observer variability at measuring subtle distances.

Keywords: mitral regurgitation, vena contracta, color doppler, image processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Valentin Nickolai, Florian Pfeffel, Christian Louis Kühner

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In many industrialized nations, the demand for skilled workers rises, causing the current market for employees to be more candidate-driven than employer-driven. Therefore, losing highly skilled and experienced employees due to early or partial retirement negatively impacts firms. Therefore, finding new ways to incentivize older employees (Silver Workers) to stay longer with the company and in their job can be crucial for the success of a firm. This study analyzes how working remotely can be a valid incentive for experienced Silver Workers to stay in their job and instead work from home with more flexible working hours. An online survey with n = 684 respondents, who are employed in the service sector, has been conducted based on 13 constructs that influence job satisfaction. These have been further categorized into three groups “classic influencing factors,” “influencing factors changed by remote working,” and new remote working influencing factors,” and were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Here, Cronbach’s alpha of the individual constructs was shown to be suitable. Furthermore, the construct validity of the constructs was confirmed by face validity, content validity, convergent validity (AVE > 0.5: CR > 0.7), and discriminant validity. Additionally, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the model fit for the investigated sample (CMIN/DF: 2.567; CFI: 0.927; RMSEA: 0.048). It was shown in the SEM-analysis that the influencing factor on job satisfaction, “identification with the work,” is the most significant with β = 0.540, followed by “Appreciation” (β = 0.151), “Compensation” (β = 0.124), “Work-Life-Balance” (β = 0.116), and “Communication and Exchange of Information” (β = 0.105). While the significance of each factor can vary depending on the work model, the SEM-analysis also shows that the identification with the work is the most significant factor in all three work models mentioned above and, in the case of the traditional office work model, it is the only significant influencing factor. The study shows that employees between the ages of 56 and 65 years have the highest job satisfaction when working entirely from home or remotely. Furthermore, their job satisfaction score of 5.4 on a scale from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 7 (very satisfied) is the highest amongst all age groups in any of the three work models. Due to the significantly higher job satisfaction, it can be argued that giving Silver Workers the offer to work from home or remotely can incentivize them not to opt for early retirement or partial retirement but to stay in their job full-time Furthermore, these findings can indicate that employees in the Silver Worker age are much more inclined to leave their job for early retirement if they have to entirely work in the office.

Keywords: home office, remote work instead of early or partial retirement, silver worker, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 574

Authors: Sudhanshu Kumar

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Electrical discharge machining, also known as EDM, process is one of the most applicable machining process for removal of material in hard to machine materials like superalloy metals. EDM process utilizes electrical energy into sparks to erode the metals in presence of dielectric medium. In the present investigation, superalloy, Inconel 718 has been selected as workpiece and electrolytic copper as tool electrode. Attempt has been made to understand the effect of size of tool with varying cavity depth during drilling of hole through EDM process. In order to systematic investigate, tool size in terms of tool diameter and cavity depth along with other important electrical parameters namely, peak current, pulse-on time and servo voltage have been varied at three different values and the experiments has been designed using fractional factorial (Taguchi) method. Each experiment has been repeated twice under the same condition in order to understand the variability within the experiments. The effect of variations in parameters has been evaluated in terms of material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface roughness. Results revel that change in tool diameter during machining affects the response characteristics significantly. Larger tool diameter yielded 13% more material removal rate than smaller tool diameter. Analysis of the effect of variation in cavity depth is notable. There is no significant effect of cavity depth on material removal rate, tool wear rate and surface quality. This indicates that number of experiments can be performed to analyze other parameters effect even at smaller depth of cavity which can reduce the cost and time of experiments. Further, statistical analysis has been carried out to identify the interaction effect between parameters.

Keywords: EDM, Inconel 718, material removal rate, roughness, tool wear, tool size

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Bereket Amare Mulu

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Ethiopia is one of the countries that consists of a huge variety of botanical resources as compared to the world. The agroclimatic is suitable for a variety of plants to grow effectively throughout the year. Sources of food plants are basic items for people in the world. Production of food items is a prior activity and needs more resources and attention to produce a huge amount of production. The local food is rich in nutrition and healthful foods. The local food is fresh and not exposed to infections easily. The community can easily get the food items in their surroundings. The local food sources are not expensive when it is compared to the other proceed food items, and it is affordable to the community purchasing power. The food is very tasty and palatable capacity by the whole community categories. The basic problems in Ethiopia are the community experiences some of the common food source items. On the contrary, inefficient food production, low economic growth, and climate variability affected food production. This leads to serious food shortages and acute health problems. The objective of the study is to identify local food sources and analyze the advantage and benefits of local food sources. Casava is one of the root crop plants in Ethiopia and easily adapts to any type of agroecology in every place in the country. 50 community members have been identified to prepare casava in different forms of food items. They have prepared in the forms of Bread, Injera, Porridge, Boiled casava, fried chips Casava, and Cocktails. The prepared food items have been exposed to the community as a food festival to eat and taste how much interesting Even though there is a cultural barrier to eating the food items, the community had the food and tasted it the food. The result showed that community awareness is still not addressed the benefits of local food sources yet. The local food has high nutritional value and healthful foods. The local food sources are fresh and easily produced in every place of the country.

Keywords: bread, cassava, injera, nutrition

Procedia PDF Downloads 94