Search results for: prediction modelling

Authors: Nguyen J. M., Lucas G., Brunner M., Ruan S., Antonioli D.

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Deep learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) is a very powerful technique for classifying information from an image. We propose a new method, DeepNic, to transform each variable of a tabular dataset into an image where each pixel represents a set of conditions that allow the variable to make an error-free prediction. The contrast of each pixel is proportional to its prediction performance and the color of each pixel corresponds to a sub-family of NICs. NICs are probabilities that depend on the number of inputs to each neuron and the range of coefficients of the inputs. Each variable can therefore be expressed as a function of a matrix of 2 vectors corresponding to an image whose pixels express predictive capabilities. Our objective is to transform each variable of tabular data into images into an image that can be analysed by CNNs, unlike other methods which use all the variables to construct an image. We analyse the NIC information of each variable and express it as a function of the number of neurons and the range of coefficients used. The predictive value and the category of the NIC are expressed by the contrast and the color of the pixel. We have developed a pipeline to implement this technology and have successfully applied it to genomic expressions on an Affymetrix chip.

Keywords: tabular data, deep learning, perfect trees, NICS

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Authors: Selvaprakash Ramalingam, Rabi N. Sahoo, Dharmendra Saraswat, A. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan, Joydeep Mukerjee, Viswanathan Chinnasamy, K. K. Chaturvedi, Sanjeev Kumar

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Rice is one of the most important staple food crops in the world. Among the various diseases that affect rice crops, rice blast is particularly significant, causing crop yield and economic losses. While the plant has defense mechanisms in place, such as chemical indicators (proteins, salicylic acid, jasmonic acid, ethylene, and azelaic acid) and resistance genes in certain varieties that can protect against diseases, susceptible varieties remain vulnerable to these fungal diseases. Early prediction of rice blast (RB) disease is crucial, but conventional techniques for early prediction are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Hyperspectral remote sensing techniques hold the potential to predict RB disease at its asymptomatic stage. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate the prediction of RB disease at the asymptomatic stage using non-imaging hyperspectral ASD spectroradiometer under controlled laboratory conditions. We applied statistical spectral discrimination theory to identify unknown spectra of M. Oryzae, the fungus responsible for rice blast disease. The infrared (IR) region was found to be significantly affected by RB disease. These changes may result in alterations in the absorption, reflection, or emission of infrared radiation by the affected plant tissues. Our research revealed that the protein spectrum in the IR region is impacted by RB disease. In our study, we identified strong correlations in the region (Amide group - I) around X 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm with the Lambda / Lambda derived spectra methods for protein detection. During the stages when the disease is developing, typically from day 3 to day 5, the plant's defense mechanisms are not as effective. This is especially true for the PB-1 variety of rice, which is highly susceptible to rice blast disease. Consequently, the proteins in the plant are adversely affected during this critical time. The spectral contour plot reveals the highly correlated spectral regions 1064 nm and Y 1300 nm associated with RB disease infection. Based on these spectral sensitivities, we developed new spectral disease indices for predicting different stages of disease emergence. The goal of this research is to lay the foundation for future UAV and satellite-based studies aimed at long-term monitoring of RB disease.

Keywords: rice blast, asymptomatic stage, spectral sensitivity, IR

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Authors: G. Kermarrec, J. Hartmann

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Spline surfaces are a major representation of freeform surfaces in the computer-aided graphic industry and were recently introduced in the field of geodesy for processing point clouds from terrestrial laser scanner (TLS). The surface fitting consists of approximating a trustworthy mathematical surface to a large numbered 3D point cloud. The standard B-spline surfaces lack of local refinement due to the tensor-product construction. The consequences are oscillating geometry, particularly in the transition from low-to-high curvature parts for scattered point clouds with missing data. More economic alternatives in terms of parameters on how to handle point clouds with a huge amount of observations are the recently introduced T-splines. As long as the partition of unity is guaranteed, their computational complexity is low, and they are flexible. T-splines are implemented in a commercial package called Rhino, a 3D modeler which is widely used in computer aided design to create and animate NURBS objects. We have applied T-splines surface fitting to terrestrial laser scanner point clouds from a bridge under load and a sheet pile wall with noisy observations. We will highlight their potential for modelling details with high trustworthiness, paving the way for further applications in terms of deformation analysis.

Keywords: deformation analysis, surface modelling, terrestrial laser scanner, T-splines

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Authors: Davood Barari Tari

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In order to investigate the correlation of rice traits in different nitrogen management methods by modeling programming, an experiment was laid out in rice paddy field in an experimental field at Caspian Coastal Sea region from 2013 to 2014. Variety used was Shiroudi as a high yielding variety. Nitrogen management was in two methods. Amount of nitrogen at four levels (30, 60, 90, and 120 Kg N ha-1 and control) and nitrogen-splitting at four levels (T1: 50% in base + 50% in maximum tillering stage, T2= 33.33% basal +33.33% in maximum tillering stage +33.33% in panicle initiation stage, T3=25% basal+37.5% in maximum tillering stage +37.5% in panicle initiation stage, T4: 25% in basal + 25% in maximum tillering stage + 50% in panicle initiation stage). Results showed that nitrogen traits, total grain number, filled spikelets, panicle number per m2 had a significant correlation with grain yield. Results related to calibrated and validation of rice model methods indicated that correlation between rice yield and yield components was accurate. The correlation between panicle length and grain yield was minimum. Physiological indices was simulated with low accuracy. According to results, investigation of the correlation between rice traits in physiological, morphological and phenological characters and yield by modeling and simulation methods are very useful.

Keywords: rice, physiology, modelling, simulation, yield traits

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Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu

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It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

Keywords: real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics

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Authors: Diemas Purnama Muhammad Firman Pratama, Denny Maulana Malik

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Development of Jatigede Dam that was the mega project in Indonesia, since 1963. Area of around Jatigede Dam is complex, it has structural geology active fault, and as possible can occur landslide. This research focus on soil test. The purpose of this research to know soil quality Jatigede Dam which caused by water seepage of Jatigede Dam, then can be made seepage modelling around Jatigede Dam including Cisampih Village. Method of this research is SRW (Soil Reaction to Water). There are three samples are taken nearby Jatigede Dam. Four paramaters to determine water seepage such as : V ( velocity of soil to release water), Dl (Ability of soil to release water), Ds (Ability of soil to absorb water), Dt (Ability of soil to hold water). meanwhile, another proscess of interaction beetween water and soil are produced angle, which is made of water flow and vertikal line. Called name SIAT. SIAT has two type is na1 and na2. Each samples has a value from the first sample is 280,333(degree), the second 270 (degree) and the third 270 (degree). The difference na1 is, water interaction towards Dt value angle, while na2 is water interaction towards Dl and Ds value angle. Result of calculating SRW method, first till third sample has a value 7, 11,5 and 9. Based on data, interpreted in around teritory of Jatigede Dam, will get easier impact from water seepage because, condition soil reaction too bad so, it can not hold water.

Keywords: Jatigede Dam, Cisampih village, water seepage, soil quality

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Authors: Y. N. Reddy

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The class of differential-difference equations which have characteristics of both classes, i.e., delay/advance and singularly perturbed behaviour is known as singularly perturbed differential-difference equations. The expression ‘positive shift’ and ‘negative shift’ are also used for ‘advance’ and ‘delay’ respectively. In general, an ordinary differential equation in which the highest order derivative is multiplied by a small positive parameter and containing at least one delay/advance is known as singularly perturbed differential-difference equation. Singularly perturbed differential-difference equations arise in the modelling of various practical phenomena in bioscience, engineering, control theory, specifically in variational problems, in describing the human pupil-light reflex, in a variety of models for physiological processes or diseases and first exit time problems in the modelling of the determination of expected time for the generation of action potential in nerve cells by random synaptic inputs in dendrites. In this paper, we envisage the use of Liouville Green Transformation to find the solution of singularly perturbed differential difference equations. First, using Taylor series, the given singularly perturbed differential difference equation is approximated by an asymptotically equivalent singularly perturbation problem. Then the Liouville Green Transformation is applied to get the solution. Several model examples are solved, and the results are compared with other methods. It is observed that the present method gives better approximate solutions.

Keywords: difference equations, differential equations, singular perturbations, boundary layer

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Authors: S. A. Che Osmi, W. M. F. Wan Ishak, H. Kim, M. A. Azman, M. A. Ramli

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River is one of important water sources for many activities including industrial and domestic usage such as daily usage, transportation, power supply and recreational activities. However, increasing activities in a river has grown the sources of pollutant enters the water bodies, and degraded the water quality of the river. It becomes a challenge to develop an effective river management to ensure the water sources of the river are well managed and regulated. In Malaysia, several approaches for river management have been implemented such as Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) program for coordinating the management of resources in a natural environment based on river basin to ensure their sustainability lead by Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID), Malaysia. Nowadays, Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is one of the best approaches for river management in Malaysia. TMDL implementation is regulated and implemented in the United States. A study on the development of TMDL in Malacca River has been carried out by doing water quality monitoring, the development of water quality model by using Environmental Fluid Dynamic Codes (EFDC), and TMDL implementation plan. The implementation of TMDL will help the stakeholders and regulators to control and improve the water quality of the river. It is one of the good approaches for river management in Malaysia.

Keywords: EFDC, river management, TMDL, water quality modelling

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Authors: P. Geetha, R. S. D. Wahida Banu

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The crowning advances in Silicon based electronic technology have dominated the computation world for the past decades. The captivating performance of Si devices lies in sustainable scaling down of the physical dimensions, by that increasing device density and improved performance. But, the fundamental limitations due to physical, technological, economical, and manufacture features restrict further miniaturization of Si based devices. The pit falls are due to scaling down of the devices such as process variation, short channel effects, high leakage currents, and reliability concerns. To fix the above-said problems, it is needed either to follow a new concept that will manage the current hitches or to support the available concept with different materials. The new concept is to design spintronics, quantum computation or two terminal molecular devices. Otherwise, presently used well known three terminal devices can be modified with different materials that suits to address the scaling down difficulties. The first approach will occupy in the far future since it needs considerable effort; the second path is a bright light towards the travel. Modelling paves way to know not only the current-voltage characteristics but also the performance of new devices. So, it is desirable to model a new device of suitable gate control and project the its abilities towards capability of handling high current, high power, high frequency, short delay, and high velocity with excellent electronic and optical properties. Carbon nanotube became a thriving material to replace silicon in nano devices. A well-planned optimized utilization of the carbon material leads to many more advantages. The unique nature of this organic material allows the recent developments in almost all fields of applications from an automobile industry to medical science, especially in electronics field-on which the automation industry depends. More research works were being done in this area. This paper reviews the carbon nanotube field effect transistor with various gate configurations, number of channel element, CNT wall configurations and different modelling techniques.

Keywords: array of channels, carbon nanotube field effect transistor, double gate transistor, gate wrap around transistor, modelling, multi-walled CNT, single-walled CNT

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Authors: Humeyra Bolakar Tosun

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The transport sector has an undisputed place in human life. People need transport access to continuous increase day by day with growing population. The number of rail network, urban transport planning, infrastructure improvements, transportation management and other related areas is a key factor affecting our country made it quite necessary to improve the work of transportation. In this context, it plays an important role in domestic rail freight demand planning. Alternatives that the increase in the transportation field and has made it mandatory requirements such as the demand for improving transport quality. In this study generally is known and used in studies by the definition, rail freight transport, railway line length, population, energy consumption. In this study, Iron Road Load Net Demand was modeled by multiple regression and ANN methods. In this study, model dependent variable (Output) is Iron Road Load Net demand and 6 entries variable was determined. These outcome values extracted from the model using ANN and regression model results. In the regression model, some parameters are considered as determinative parameters, and the coefficients of the determinants give meaningful results. As a result, ANN model has been shown to be more successful than traditional regression model.

Keywords: railway load carrying, neural network, modelling transport, transportation

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Authors: X. Wang, J. S. Kuang

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The Fixed-angle Softened Truss Model with Tension-stiffening (FASTMT) has a superior performance in predicting the shear behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) membrane elements, especially for the post-cracking behaviour. Nevertheless, massive computational work is inevitable due to the multiple transcendental equations involved in the stress-strain relationship. In this paper, an iterative root-finding technique is introduced to FASTMT for solving quickly the transcendental equations of the tension-stiffening effect of RC membrane elements. This fast FASTMT, which performs in MATLAB, uses the bisection method to calculate the tensile stress of the membranes. By adopting the simplification, the elapsed time of each loop is reduced significantly and the transcendental equations can be solved accurately. Owing to the high efficiency and good accuracy as compared with FASTMT, the fast FASTMT can be further applied in quick prediction of shear behaviour of complex large-scale RC structures.

Keywords: bisection method, FASTMT, iterative root-finding technique, reinforced concrete membrane

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Authors: Jacob Hatherell, Jason Matthews, Arnaud Marmier

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Anvil Staking is a cold-forming process that is used in the assembly of plain spherical bearings into a rod-end housing. This process ensures that the bearing outer lip conforms to the chamfer in the matching rod end to produce a lightweight mechanical joint with sufficient strength to meet the pushout load requirement of the assembly. Finite Element (FE) analysis is being used extensively to predict the behaviour of metal flow in cold forming processes to support industrial manufacturing and product development. On-going research aims to validate FE models across a wide range of bearing and rod-end geometries by systematically isolating and understanding the uncertainties caused by variations in, material properties, load-dependent friction coefficients and strain rate sensitivity. The improved confidence in these models aims to eliminate the costly and time-consuming process of experimental trials in the introduction of new bearing designs. Previous literature has shown that friction coefficients do not remain constant during cold forming operations, however, the understanding of this phenomenon varies significantly and is rarely implemented in FE models. In this paper, a new approach to evaluate the normal contact pressure versus friction coefficient relationship is outlined using friction calibration charts generated via iterative FE models and ring compression tests. When compared to previous research, this new approach greatly improves the prediction of forming geometry and the forming load during the staking operation. This paper also aims to standardise the FE approach to modelling ring compression test and determining the friction calibration charts.

Keywords: anvil staking, finite element analysis, friction coefficient, spherical plain bearing, ring compression tests

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Authors: Belalia Douma Omar, Bakhta Boukhatem, Mohamed Ghrici

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Self-compacting concrete (SCC) developed in Japan in the late 80s has enabled the construction industry to reduce demand on the resources, improve the work condition and also reduce the impact of environment by elimination of the need for compaction. Fuzzy logic (FL) approaches has recently been used to model some of the human activities in many areas of civil engineering applications. Especially from these systems in the model experimental studies, very good results have been obtained. In the present study, a model for predicting compressive strength of SCC containing various proportions of fly ash, as partial replacement of cement has been developed by using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). For the purpose of building this model, a database of experimental data were gathered from the literature and used for training and testing the model. The used data as the inputs of fuzzy logic models are arranged in a format of five parameters that cover the total binder content, fly ash replacement percentage, water content, super plasticizer and age of specimens. The training and testing results in the fuzzy logic model have shown a strong potential for predicting the compressive strength of SCC containing fly ash in the considered range.

Keywords: self-compacting concrete, fly ash, strength prediction, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Omran M. Kenshel, Alan J. O'Connor

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Estimating the service life of Reinforced Concrete (RC) bridge structures located in corrosive marine environments of a great importance to their owners/engineers. Traditionally, bridge owners/engineers relied more on subjective engineering judgment, e.g. visual inspection, in their estimation approach. However, because financial resources are often limited, rational calculation methods of estimation are needed to aid in making reliable and more accurate predictions for the service life of RC structures. This is in order to direct funds to bridges found to be the most critical. Criticality of the structure can be considered either form the Structural Capacity (i.e. Ultimate Limit State) or from Serviceability viewpoint whichever is adopted. This paper considers the service life of the structure only from the Structural Capacity viewpoint. Considering the great variability associated with the parameters involved in the estimation process, the probabilistic approach is most suited. The probabilistic modelling adopted here used Monte Carlo simulation technique to estimate the Reliability (i.e. Probability of Failure) of the structure under consideration. In this paper the authors used their own experimental data for the Correlation Length (CL) for the most important deterioration parameters. The CL is a parameter of the Correlation Function (CF) by which the spatial fluctuation of a certain deterioration parameter is described. The CL data used here were produced by analyzing 45 chloride profiles obtained from a 30 years old RC bridge located in a marine environment. The service life of the structure were predicted in terms of the load carrying capacity of an RC bridge beam girder. The analysis showed that the influence of SV is only evident if the reliability of the structure is governed by the Flexure failure rather than by the Shear failure.

Keywords: Chloride-induced corrosion, Monte-Carlo simulation, reinforced concrete, spatial variability

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Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

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Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi

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In the present study, the capabilities of WAVEWATCH-III and MIKE21-SW for predicting the characteristics of wind waves in Hormuz Strait are evaluated. The GFS wind data (Global Forecast System) were derived. The bathymetry of gride with 2 arc-minute resolution, also were extracted from the ETOPO1. WAVEWATCH-III findings illustrate more valid prediction of wave features comparing to the MIKE-21 SW in deep water. Apparently, in shallow area, the MIKE-21 provides more uniformities with altimetry measurements. This may be due to the merits of the unstructured grid which are used in MIKE-21, leading to better representations of the coastal area. The findings on the direction of waves generated by wind in the modeling area indicate that in some regions, despite the increase in wind speed, significant wave height stays nearly unchanged. This is fundamental because of swift changes in wind track over the Strait of Hormuz. After discussing wind-induced waves in the region, the impact of instability of the surface layer on wave growth has been considered. For this purpose, the average monthly mean air temperature has been used. The results in cold months, when the surface layer is unstable, indicates an acceptable increase in the accuracy of prediction of the indicator wave height.

Keywords: numerical modeling, WAVEWATCH-III, Strait of Hormuz, MIKE21-SW

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Authors: P. V. Pramila , V. Mahesh

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Pulmonary Function Tests are important non-invasive diagnostic tests to assess respiratory impairments and provides quantifiable measures of lung function. Spirometry is the most frequently used measure of lung function and plays an essential role in the diagnosis and management of pulmonary diseases. However, the test requires considerable patient effort and cooperation, markedly related to the age of patients esulting in incomplete data sets. This paper presents, a nonlinear model built using Multivariate adaptive regression splines and Random forest regression model to predict the missing spirometric features. Random forest based feature selection is used to enhance both the generalization capability and the model interpretability. In the present study, flow-volume data are recorded for N= 198 subjects. The ranked order of feature importance index calculated by the random forests model shows that the spirometric features FVC, FEF 25, PEF,FEF 25-75, FEF50, and the demographic parameter height are the important descriptors. A comparison of performance assessment of both models prove that, the prediction ability of MARS with the `top two ranked features namely the FVC and FEF 25 is higher, yielding a model fit of R2= 0.96 and R2= 0.99 for normal and abnormal subjects. The Root Mean Square Error analysis of the RF model and the MARS model also shows that the latter is capable of predicting the missing values of FEV1 with a notably lower error value of 0.0191 (normal subjects) and 0.0106 (abnormal subjects). It is concluded that combining feature selection with a prediction model provides a minimum subset of predominant features to train the model, yielding better prediction performance. This analysis can assist clinicians with a intelligence support system in the medical diagnosis and improvement of clinical care.

Keywords: FEV, multivariate adaptive regression splines pulmonary function test, random forest

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Authors: Keisuke Fujioka, Yuta Itoh, Masaru Minagawa, Shunji Kusayanagi

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In this study, building information models of the underground temporary structures and adjacent embedded pipes were constructed to show the importance of the information on underground pipes adjacent to the structures to enhance the productivity of execution of construction. Next, the bar chart used in actual construction process were employed to make the Gantt chart, and the critical pass analysis was carried out to show that accurate information on the arrangement of underground existing pipes can be used for the enhancement of the productivity of the construction of underground structures. In the analyzed project, significant construction delay was not caused by unforeseeable existence of underground pipes by the management ability of the construction manager. However, in many cases of construction executions in the developing countries, the existence of unforeseeable embedded pipes often causes substantial delay of construction. Design change based on uncertainty on the position information of embedded pipe can be also important risk for contractors in domestic construction. So CPM analyses were performed by a project-management-software to the situation that influence of the tasks causing construction delay was assumed more significant. Through the analyses, the efficiency of information management on underground pipes and BIM analysis in the design stage for workability improvement was indirectly confirmed.

Keywords: building-information modelling, construction information modelling, design improvement, infrastructure

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Authors: M. S. Aparna, Pushparaj Shetty D.

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Nowadays social networking sites have become so popular that the producers or the sellers look for these sites as one of the best options to target the right audience to market their products. There are several tools available to monitor or analyze the social networks. Our task is to identify the right community web pages and find out the behavior analysis of the members by using these tools and formulate an appropriate strategy to market the products or services to achieve the set goals. The advertising becomes more effective when the information of the product/ services come from a known source. The strategy explores great buying influence in the audience on referral marketing. Our methodology proceeds with critical budget analysis and promotes viral influence propagation. In this context, we encompass the vital bits of budget evaluation such as the number of optimal seed nodes or primary influential users activated onset, an estimate coverage spread of nodes and maximum influence propagating distance from an initial seed to an end node. Our proposal for Buyer Prediction mathematical model arises from the urge to perform complex analysis when the probability density estimates of reliable factors are not known or difficult to calculate. Order Statistics and Buyer Prediction mapping function guarantee the selection of optimal influential users at each level. We exercise an efficient tactics of practicing community pages and user behavior to determine the product enthusiasts on social networks. Our approach is promising and should be an elementary choice when there is little or no prior knowledge on the distribution of potential buyers on social networks. In this strategy, product news propagates to influential users on or surrounding networks. By applying the same technique, a user can search friends who are capable to advise better or give referrals, if a product interests him.

Keywords: viral marketing, social network analysis, community web pages, buyer prediction, influence propagation, budget constraints

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Authors: Peter David Reiss

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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

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Authors: Juan Sebastián Hernández

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The Nevado del Ruíz volcano, located between the limits of the Departments of Caldas and Tolima in Colombia, presented an unstable behaviour in the course of the year 2020, this volcanic activity led to secondary effects on the crust, which is why the prediction of deformations becomes the task of geoscientists. In the course of this article, the use of tropospheric variables such as evapotranspiration, UV aerosol index, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, methane, surface temperature, among others, is used to train a set of neural networks that can predict the behaviour of the resulting phase of an unrolled interferogram with the DInSAR technique, whose main objective is to identify and characterise the behaviour of the crust based on the environmental conditions. For this purpose, variables were collected, a generalised linear model was created, and a set of neural networks was created. After the training of the network, validation was carried out with the test data, giving an MSE of 0.17598 and an associated r-squared of approximately 0.88454. The resulting model provided a dataset with good thematic accuracy, reflecting the behaviour of the volcano in 2020, given a set of environmental characteristics.

Keywords: crustal deformation, Tropomi, neural networks (ANN), volcanic activity, DInSAR

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Authors: Leila Baghaarabani, Parvin Razzaghi, Mennatolla Magdy Mostafa, Ahmad Albaqsami, Al Warith Al Rushaidi, Masoud Al Rawahi

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Predicting the interaction between drugs and their molecular targets is pivotal for advancing drug development processes. Due to the time and cost limitations, computational approaches have emerged as an effective approach to drug-target interaction (DTI) prediction. Most of the introduced computational based approaches utilize the drug molecule and protein sequence as input. This study does not only utilize these inputs, it also introduces a protein representation developed using a masked protein language model. In this representation, for every individual amino acid residue within the protein sequence, there exists a corresponding probability distribution that indicates the likelihood of each amino acid being present at that particular position. Then, the similarity between each pair of amino-acids is computed to create similarity matrix. To encode the knowledge of the similarity matrix, Bi-Level Routing Attention (BiFormer) is utilized, which combines aspects of transformer-based models with protein sequence analysis and represents a significant advancement in the field of drug-protein interaction prediction. BiFormer has the ability to pinpoint the most effective regions of the protein sequence that are responsible for facilitating interactions between the protein and drugs, thereby enhancing the understanding of these critical interactions. Thus, it appears promising in its ability to capture the local structural relationship of the proteins by enhancing the understanding of how it contributes to drug protein interactions, thereby facilitating more accurate predictions. To evaluate the proposed method, it was tested on two widely recognized datasets: Davis and KIBA. A comprehensive series of experiments was conducted to illustrate its effectiveness in comparison to cuttingedge techniques.

Keywords: BiFormer, transformer, protein language processing, self-attention mechanism, binding affinity, drug target interaction, similarity matrix, protein masked representation, protein language model

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased, Paweena Sribunrueng

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The objective of this study is to investigate strategies in customer relationship management and customers’ behavior in making decision on buying car insurance of Southeast Insurance Co. Ltd. in Bangkok. Subjects in this study included 400 customers with the age over 20 years old to complete questionnaires. The data were analyzed by arithmetic mean and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the customers’ opinions on the strategies in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, customer feedback, customer follow-up, useful service suggestions, customer communication, and service channels were in moderate level but on the customer retention was in high level. Moreover, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer relationship, and customer feedback had an influence on customers’ buying decision on buying car insurance. The two factors above can be used for the prediction at the rate of 34%. In addition, the strategy in customer relationship management, i.e. customer retention, customer feedback, and useful service suggestions had an influence on the customers’ buying decision on period of being customers. The three factors could be used for the prediction at the rate of 45%.

Keywords: strategies, customer relationship management, behavior in buying decision, car insurance

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: prediction model, sensitivity analysis, simulation method, USMLE

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Authors: Haiyan Wu, Ying Liu, Shaoyun Shi

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Authorship attribution is to extract features to identify authors of anonymous documents. Many previous works on authorship attribution focus on statistical style features (e.g., sentence/word length), content features (e.g., frequent words, n-grams). Modeling these features by regression or some transparent machine learning methods gives a portrait of the authors' writing style. But these methods do not capture the syntactic (e.g., dependency relationship) or semantic (e.g., topics) information. In recent years, some researchers model syntactic trees or latent semantic information by neural networks. However, few works take them together. Besides, predictions by neural networks are difficult to explain, which is vital in authorship attribution tasks. In this paper, we not only utilize the statistical style and content features but also take advantage of both syntactic and semantic features. Different from an end-to-end neural model, feature selection and prediction are two steps in our method. An attentive n-gram network is utilized to select useful features, and logistic regression is applied to give prediction and understandable representation of writing style. Experiments show that our extracted features can improve the state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets.

Keywords: authorship attribution, attention mechanism, syntactic feature, feature extraction

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Authors: Triveni Gogoi, Rima Chatterjee

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Shear wave velocity (Vs) estimation is an important approach in the seismic exploration and characterization of a hydrocarbon reservoir. There are varying methods for prediction of S-wave velocity, if recorded S-wave log is not available. But all the available methods for Vs prediction are empirical mathematical models. Shear wave velocity can be estimated using P-wave velocity by applying Castagna’s equation, which is the most common approach. The constants used in Castagna’s equation vary for different lithologies and geological set-ups. In this study, multiple regression analysis has been used for estimation of S-wave velocity. The EMERGE module from Hampson-Russel software has been used here for generation of S-wave log. Both single attribute and multi attributes analysis have been carried out for generation of synthetic S-wave log in Upper Assam basin. Upper Assam basin situated in North Eastern India is one of the most important petroleum provinces of India. The present study was carried out using four wells of the study area. Out of these wells, S-wave velocity was available for three wells. The main objective of the present study is a prediction of shear wave velocities for wells where S-wave velocity information is not available. The three wells having S-wave velocity were first used to test the reliability of the method and the generated S-wave log was compared with actual S-wave log. Single attribute analysis has been carried out for these three wells within the depth range 1700-2100m, which corresponds to Barail group of Oligocene age. The Barail Group is the main target zone in this study, which is the primary producing reservoir of the basin. A system generated list of attributes with varying degrees of correlation appeared and the attribute with the highest correlation was concerned for the single attribute analysis. Crossplot between the attributes shows the variation of points from line of best fit. The final result of the analysis was compared with the available S-wave log, which shows a good visual fit with a correlation of 72%. Next multi-attribute analysis has been carried out for the same data using all the wells within the same analysis window. A high correlation of 85% has been observed between the output log from the analysis and the recorded S-wave. The almost perfect fit between the synthetic S-wave and the recorded S-wave log validates the reliability of the method. For further authentication, the generated S-wave data from the wells have been tied to the seismic and correlated them. Synthetic share wave log has been generated for the well M2 where S-wave is not available and it shows a good correlation with the seismic. Neutron porosity, density, AI and P-wave velocity are proved to be the most significant variables in this statistical method for S-wave generation. Multilinear regression method thus can be considered as a reliable technique for generation of shear wave velocity log in this study.

Keywords: Castagna's equation, multi linear regression, multi attribute analysis, shear wave logs

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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Authors: F. J. Ma, A. K. H. Kwan

Abstract:

Crack caused by shrinkage movement of concrete is a serious problem especially when restraint is provided. It may cause severe serviceability and durability problems. The existing prediction methods for crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement are mainly numerical methods under simplified circumstances, which do not agree with each other. To get a more unified prediction method applicable to more sophisticated circumstances, finite element crack width analysis for shrinkage effect should be developed. However, no existing finite element analysis can be carried out to predict the crack width of concrete due to shrinkage movement because of unsolved reasons of conventional finite element analysis. In this paper, crack width analysis implemented by finite element analysis is presented with pseudo-discrete crack model, which combines traditional smeared crack model and newly proposed crack queuing algorithm. The proposed pseudo-discrete crack model is capable of simulating separate and single crack without adopting discrete crack element. And the improved finite element analysis can successfully simulate the stress redistribution when concrete is cracked, which is crucial for predicting crack width, crack spacing and crack number.

Keywords: crack queuing algorithm, crack width analysis, finite element analysis, shrinkage effect

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Authors: Ghufran Ahmed, Muhammad Osama Siddiqui, Shahbaz Siddiqui, Rauf Ahmad Shams Malick, Faisal Khan, Mubashir Khan

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In this paper, a machine learning-based approach for early prediction of diseases in cows is proposed. Different ML algos are applied to extract useful patterns from the available dataset. Technology has changed today’s world in every aspect of life. Similarly, advanced technologies have been developed in livestock and dairy farming to monitor dairy cows in various aspects. Dairy cattle monitoring is crucial as it plays a significant role in milk production around the globe. Moreover, it has become necessary for farmers to adopt the latest early prediction technologies as the food demand is increasing with population growth. This highlight the importance of state-ofthe-art technologies in analyzing how important technology is in analyzing dairy cows’ activities. It is not easy to predict the activities of a large number of cows on the farm, so, the system has made it very convenient for the farmers., as it provides all the solutions under one roof. The cattle industry’s productivity is boosted as the early diagnosis of any disease on a cattle farm is detected and hence it is treated early. It is done on behalf of the machine learning output received. The learning models are already set which interpret the data collected in a centralized system. Basically, we will run different algorithms on behalf of the data set received to analyze milk quality, and track cows’ health, location, and safety. This deep learning algorithm draws patterns from the data, which makes it easier for farmers to study any animal’s behavioral changes. With the emergence of machine learning algorithms and the Internet of Things, accurate tracking of animals is possible as the rate of error is minimized. As a result, milk productivity is increased. IoT with ML capability has given a new phase to the cattle farming industry by increasing the yield in the most cost-effective and time-saving manner.

Keywords: IoT, machine learning, health care, dairy cows

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Authors: Ashish Dhamaniya, Vineet Jain, Rajesh Chouhan

Abstract:

Traffic management is one of the gigantic issue in most of the urban roads in al-most all metropolitan cities in India. Speed is one of the critical traffic parameters for effective Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation as it decides the arrival rate of vehicles on an intersection which are majorly the point of con-gestions. The study aimed to leverage Machine Learning (ML) models to produce precise predictions of speed on urban roadway links. The research objective was to assess how categorized traffic volume and road width, serving as variables, in-fluence speed prediction. Four tree-based regression models namely: Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and Extreme Gradient Boost (XGB)are employed for this purpose. The models' performances were validated using test data, and the results demonstrate that Random Forest surpasses other machine learning techniques and a conventional utility theory-based model in speed prediction. The study is useful for managing the urban roadway network performance under mixed traffic conditions and effective implementation of ITS.

Keywords: stream speed, urban roads, machine learning, traffic flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 71