Search results for: trading volume

Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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The relation between stock price volatility and trading volume represents a controversial issue which has received a remarkable attention over the past decades. In fact, an extensive literature shows a positive relation between price volatility and trading volume in the financial markets, but the causal relationship which originates such association is an open question, from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In this regard, various models, which can be considered as complementary rather than competitive, have been introduced to explain this relationship. They include the long debated Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH); the Sequential Arrival of Information Hypothesis (SAIH); the Dispersion of Beliefs Hypothesis (DBH); the Noise Trader Hypothesis (NTH). In this work, we analyze whether stock market efficiency can explain the diversity of results achieved during the years. For this purpose, we propose an alternative measure of market efficiency, based on the pointwise regularity of a stochastic process, which is the Hurst–H¨older dynamic exponent. In particular, we model the stock market by means of the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) that displays the property of a time-changing regularity. Mostly, such models have in common the fact that they locally behave as a fractional Brownian motion, in the sense that their local regularity at time t0 (measured by the local Hurst–H¨older exponent in a neighborhood of t0 equals the exponent of a fractional Brownian motion of parameter H(t0)). Assuming that the stock price follows an mBm, we introduce and theoretically justify the Hurst–H¨older dynamical exponent as a measure of market efficiency. This allows to measure, at any time t, markets’ departures from the martingale property, i.e. from efficiency as stated by the Efficient Market Hypothesis. This approach is applied to financial markets; using data for the SP500 index from 1978 to 2017, on the one hand we find that when efficiency is not accounted for, a positive contemporaneous relationship emerges and is stable over time. Conversely, it disappears as soon as efficiency is taken into account. In particular, this association is more pronounced during time frames of high volatility and tends to disappear when market becomes fully efficient.

Keywords: volume–volatility relationship, efficient market hypothesis, martingale model, Hurst–Hölder exponent

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Authors: Nkechi V. Osuji

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The use of blockchain to address the issue of climate change is increasingly a discourse among countries, industries, and stakeholders. For a long time, the European Union (EU) has been combating the issue of climate action in industries through sustainability programs. One of such programs is the EU monitoring reporting and verification (MRV) program of the EU ETS. However, the system has some key challenges and areas for improvement, which makes it inefficient. The main objective of the research is to look at how blockchain can be used to improve the inefficiency of the EU ETS program for the Danish energy industry with a focus on its monitoring and reporting framework. Applying empirical data from 13 semi-structured expert interviews, three case studies, and literature reviews, three outcomes are presented in the study. The first is on the current conditions and challenges of monitoring and reporting CO₂ emission trading. The second is putting into consideration if blockchain is the right fit to solve these challenges and how. The third stage looks at the factors that might affect the implementation of such a system and provides recommendations to mitigate these challenges. The first stage of the findings reveals that the monitoring and reporting of CO₂ emissions is a mandatory requirement by law for all energy operators under the EU ETS program. However, most energy operators are non-compliant with the program in reality, which creates a gap and causes challenges in the monitoring and reporting of CO₂ emission trading. Other challenges the study found out are the lack of transparency, lack of standardization in CO₂ accounting, and the issue of double-counting in the current system. The second stage of the research was guided by three case studies and requirement engineering (RE) to explore these identified challenges and if blockchain is the right fit to address them. This stage of the research addressed the main research question: how can blockchain be used for monitoring and reporting CO₂ emission trading in the energy industry. Through analysis of the study data, the researcher developed a conceptual private permissioned Hyperledger blockchain and elucidated on how it can address the identified challenges. Particularly, the smart contract of blockchain was highlighted as a key feature. This is because of its ability to automate, be immutable, and digitally enforce negotiations without a middleman. These characteristics are unique in solving the issue of compliance, transparency, standardization, and double counting identified. The third stage of the research presents technological constraints and a high level of stakeholder collaboration as major factors that might affect the implementation of the proposed system. The proposed conceptual model requires high-level integration with other technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) and machine learning. Therefore, the study encourages future research in these areas. This is because blockchain is continually evolving its technology capabilities. As such, it remains a topic of interest in research and development for addressing climate change. Such a study is a good contribution to creating sustainable practices to solve the global climate issue.

Keywords: blockchain, carbon emission trading, European Union emission trading system, monitoring and reporting

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Authors: Taylan Kabbani, Ekrem Duman

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The design of adaptive systems that take advantage of financial markets while reducing the risk can bring more stagnant wealth into the global market. However, most efforts made to generate successful deals in trading financial assets rely on Supervised Learning (SL), which suffered from various limitations. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) offers to solve these drawbacks of SL approaches by combining the financial assets price "prediction" step and the "allocation" step of the portfolio in one unified process to produce fully autonomous systems capable of interacting with its environment to make optimal decisions through trial and error. In this paper, a continuous action space approach is adopted to give the trading agent the ability to gradually adjust the portfolio's positions with each time step (dynamically re-allocate investments), resulting in better agent-environment interaction and faster convergence of the learning process. In addition, the approach supports the managing of a portfolio with several assets instead of a single one. This work represents a novel DRL model to generate profitable trades in the stock market, effectively overcoming the limitations of supervised learning approaches. We formulate the trading problem, or what is referred to as The Agent Environment as Partially observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model, considering the constraints imposed by the stock market, such as liquidity and transaction costs. More specifically, we design an environment that simulates the real-world trading process by augmenting the state representation with ten different technical indicators and sentiment analysis of news articles for each stock. We then solve the formulated POMDP problem using the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, which can learn policies in high-dimensional and continuous action spaces like those typically found in the stock market environment. From the point of view of stock market forecasting and the intelligent decision-making mechanism, this paper demonstrates the superiority of deep reinforcement learning in financial markets over other types of machine learning such as supervised learning and proves its credibility and advantages of strategic decision-making.

Keywords: the stock market, deep reinforcement learning, MDP, twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient, sentiment analysis, technical indicators, autonomous agent

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Authors: Abdulla D. Alblooshi

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The stock market is a representation of human behavior and psychology, such as fear, greed, and discipline. Those are manifested in the form of price movements during the trading sessions. Therefore, predicting the stock movement and prices is a challenging effort. However, those trading sessions produce a large amount of data that can be utilized to train an AI agent for the purpose of predicting the stock movement. Predicting the stock market price action will be advantageous. In this paper, the stock movement data of three DFM listed stocks are studied using historical price movements and technical indicators value and used to train an agent using KNN and SVM methods to predict the future price movement. MATLAB Toolbox and a simple script is written to process and classify the information and output the prediction. It will also compare the different learning methods and parameters s using metrics like RMSE, MAE, and R².

Keywords: KNN, ANN, style, SVM, stocks, technical indicators, RSI, MACD, moving averages, RMSE, MAE

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

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Authors: Ngo the Bach

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Vietnam is one of not many Asian countries that have a long-standing and famous tradition of pottery production. Vietnam is also one of three countries including China, Vietnam, and Japan developed strongly the export of ceramics to other countries. In recent decades, the studies of Vietnamese and foreign scholars on Vietnamese trade ceramics as well as Vietnamese foreign trade was initially recorded. The aim of this article is to introduce an overview of the findings situation and research results; the development of Vietnam ceramics and the Vietnamese history of maritime trade with Asian ceramics from the 14th century to the 17th century. Given that, the author systematized materials; carried out the synthetic and analysis for research results of Vietnamese and foreign researchers until now on Vietnamese export ceramics on the basis of the historical sources, archaeological findings discovered from relics in the tombs, relics of residence, relics of trading port inland, and the ancient shipwreck sank in the Asian countries.

Keywords: Vietnamese ceramics, trading, maritime, international

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Authors: Seonjae Lee, Sungjoo Lee

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Excavation is necessary to remain competitive in the current business environment. The company survived the rapidly changing industry conditions by adapting new business strategy and reducing technology challenges. Traditionally, the two methods are conducted excavations for new businesses. The first method is, qualitative analysis of expert opinion, which is gathered through opportunities and secondly, new technologies are discovered through quantitative data analysis of method patents. The second method increases time and cost. Patent data is restricted for use and the purpose of discovering business opportunities. This study presents the company's characteristics (sector, size, etc.), of new business opportunities in customized form by reviewing the value chain perspective and to contributing to creating new business opportunities in the proposed model. It utilizes the trademark database of the Korean Intellectual Property Office (KIPO) and proprietary company information database of the Korea Enterprise Data (KED). This data is key to discovering new business opportunities with analysis of competitors and advanced business trademarks (Module 1) and trading analysis of competitors found in the KED (Module 2).

Keywords: value chain, trademark, trading analysis, new business opportunity

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Authors: Howard Chitimira

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The European Union (EU) was probably the first body to establish multinational anti-market abuse laws aimed at enhancing the detection and curbing of cross-border market abuse activities in its member states. Put differently, the EU Insider Dealing Directive was adopted in 1989 and was the first law that harmonised the insider trading ban among the EU member states. Thereafter, the European Union Directive on Insider Dealing and Market Manipulation (EU Market Abuse Directive) was adopted in a bid to improve and effectively discourage all the forms of market abuse in the EU’s securities and financial markets. However, the EU Market Abuse Directive had its own gaps and flaws. In light of this, the Market Abuse Regulation and the Criminal Sanctions for Market Abuse Directive were enacted to repeal and replace the EU Market Abuse Directive in 2016. The article examines the adequacy of the EU Market Abuse Directive and its implementation in the United Kingdom (UK) prior to the British exit (Brexit). This is done to investigate the possible implications of the Brexit referendum outcome of 23 June 2016 on the future regulation of market abuse in the UK.

Keywords: market abuse, insider trading, market manipulation, European Union, United Kingdom

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Authors: S. Jamshidi, E. Feizi Ashtiani, M. Ardestani, A. Feizi Ashtiani

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Waste load allocation (WLA) strategies usually intend to find economical policies for water resource management. Water quality trading (WQT) is an approach that uses discharge permit market to reduce total environmental protection costs. This primarily requires assigning discharge limits known as total maximum daily loads (TMDLs). These are determined by monitoring organizations with respect to the receiving water quality and remediation capabilities. The purpose of this study is to compare two approaches of TMDL assignment for WQT policy in small catchment area of Haraz River, in north of Iran. At first, TMDLs are assigned uniformly for the whole point sources to keep the concentrations of BOD and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the standard level at checkpoint (terminus point). This was simply simulated and controlled by Qual2kw software. In the second scenario, TMDLs are assigned using multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) method in which the environmental violation at river basin and total treatment costs are minimized simultaneously. In both scenarios, the equity index and the WLA based on trading discharge permits (TDP) are calculated. The comparative results showed that using economically optimized TMDLs (2nd scenario) has slightly more cost savings rather than uniform TMDL approach (1st scenario). The former annually costs about 1 M$ while the latter is 1.15 M$. WQT can decrease these annual costs to 0.9 and 1.1 M$, respectively. In other word, these approaches may save 35 and 45% economically in comparison with command and control policy. It means that using multi objective decision support systems (DSS) may find more economical WLA, however its outcome is not necessarily significant in comparison with uniform TMDLs. This may be due to the similar impact factors of dischargers in small catchments. Conversely, using uniform TMDLs for WQT brings more equity that makes stakeholders not feel that much envious of difference between TMDL and WQT allocation. In addition, for this case, determination of TMDLs uniformly would be much easier for monitoring. Consequently, uniform TMDL for TDP market is recommended as a sustainable approach. However, economical TMDLs can be used for larger watersheds.

Keywords: waste load allocation (WLA), water quality trading (WQT), total maximum daily loads (TMDLs), Haraz River, multi objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO), equity

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Mahmoud Hassan

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Understanding the impact of market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments on renewable energy consumption (REC) is crucial for the design and choice of policy packages. This study aims to empirically investigate the effect of environmental policy stringency index (EPS) and its components on REC in 27 OECD countries over the period from 1990 to 2015, and then use the results to identify what the appropriate environmental policy mix should look like. By relying on the two-step system GMM estimator, we provide evidence that increasing environmental policy stringency as a whole promotes renewable energy consumption in these 27 developed economies. Moreover, policymakers are able, through the market- and non-market-based environmental policy instruments, to increase the use of renewable energy. However, not all of these instruments are effective for achieving this goal. The results indicate that R&D subsidies and trading schemes have a positive and significant impact on REC, while taxes, feed-in tariff and emission standards have not a significant effect. Furthermore, R&D subsidies are more effective than trading schemes for stimulating the use of clean energy. These findings proved to be robust across the three alternative panel techniques used.

Keywords: environmental policy stringency, renewable energy consumption, two-step system-GMM estimation, linear dynamic panel data model

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Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

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Authors: Salwana Hassan, Rashidah Abdul Rahman

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Poverty in rural Malaysia remains unresolved and contribute 7.8% to the whole poverty figure in Malaysia. Among the rural folks, 50% is women. Thus, women, as the significant human capital to fight the long lost battle of poverty , is indispensable. This will also serve as an equal opportunity for women to play active and positive roles to develop the society that has been the tasks for men all this while. More importantly rural women folks have the potential to offer better quality of life for their family by providing extra income and monetary support whenever their husbands are not able to work. The reality in this, however, cannot be solved easily as there are many factors that stand in the way and prevent the resolutions to be observed.In this regard, this paper describes a model that has been used to resolve such issues in rural Malaysia. The model utilizes a synergetic effort between an academic institution, an NGO that govern the rural women folks and a private trading company that sell the finished product. The project was conducted in rural area of Selangor and has been in operations since the end of 2013. It shows positive outcome and could be used in other rural areas of Malaysia. The project captures the influence of the NGO programs upon rural women entrepreneurship and how a private trading company can facilitate to help develop a community. As a result the project reveals that self-income generating activities by entrepreneurship are the important contributing factor to empowering rural women folks in Malaysia.

Keywords: poverty, empowerment, rural, entrepreneurship, community

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Authors: Ching-Feng Chen

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The floating photovoltaic (FPV) system highlights economic benefits and energy performance to carbon dioxide (CO₂) discharges. Due to land resource scarcity and many negligent water territories, such as reservoirs, dams, and lakes in Japan and Taiwan, both countries are actively developing FPV and responding to the pricing of the emissions trading systems (ETS). This paper performs a case study through a synthesis approach to compare the economic indicators between the FPVs of Taiwan’s Agongdian Reservoir and Japan’s Yamakura Dam. The research results show that the metrics of the system capacity, installation costs, bank interest rates, and ETS and Electricity Bills affect FPV operating gains. In the post-Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) phase, investing in FPV in Japan is more profitable than in Taiwan. The former’s positive net present value (NPV), eminent internal rate of return (IRR) (11.6%), and benefit-cost ratio (BCR) above 1 (2.0) at the discount rate of 10% indicate that investing the FPV in Japan is more favorable than in Taiwan. In addition, the breakeven point is modest (about 61.3%.). The presented methodology in the study helps investors evaluate schemes’ pros and cons and determine whether a decision is beneficial while funding PV or FPV projects.

Keywords: carbon border adjustment mechanism, floating photovoltaic, emissions trading systems, net present value, internal rate of return, benefit-cost ratio

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Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

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In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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Authors: Pichamon Chansuchai

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The study of Thai consumer behavior toward buying goods on the Internet is a survey research. The five-level rating scale and open-ended questionnaire are applied for this research procedure, which has more than 400 random sampling of Thai people aged between 15-40 years old. The summary findings are: The analysis of respondents profile were female 55.3% and male 44.8% , 35.3% aged between 20-30 years old, had been employed 29.5% with average income up to 11,000 baht/month 50.2% and expenditure more than 11,000 baht per month 29.3%. The internet usage behavior of respondents mostly found that objectives of the internet usage are: 1) Communication 93.3% 2) the categories of websites usage was trading 42.8% 3) The marketing mix effected to trading behavior via internet which can be analyzed in term of marketing factor as following: Product focused on product quality was the most influenced factor with average value 4.75. The cheaper price than overview market was the most effect factor to internet shopping with mean value 4.53. The average value 4.67 of the available place that could reduce spending time for shopping. The effective promotion of the buy 1 get 1 was the stimulus factor for internet shopping with mean value 4.60. For hypothesis testing, the different sex has relationship with buying decision. It presented that male and female have vary purchasing decision via internet with value of significant difference 0.05. Furthermore, the variety occupations of respondents related to the use of selected type of website. It also found that the vary of personal occupation effected to the type of website selection dissimilar with value of significant difference 0.05.

Keywords: behavior, internet, consumer, goods

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Authors: Fuqiang Wang, Jun Liu, Liyan Cai

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This paper investigates the coordination of the conflicting two-stage low carbon supply chain consisting of upstream and downstream manufacturers. The conflict means that the upstream manufacturer takes action for carbon emissions reduction under carbon trading mechanism while the downstream manufacturer’s production cost rises. It assumes for the Stackelberg game that the upstream manufacturer plays as a leader and the downstream manufacturer does as a follower. Four kinds of the situation of decentralized decision making, centralized decision-making, the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract under decentralized decision making are considered. The backward induction approach is adopted to solve the game. The results show that the more intense the conflict is, the lower the efficiency of carbon emissions reduction and the higher the retail price is. The optimal investment of the decentralized supply chain under the two contracts is unchanged and still lower than that of the centralized supply chain. Both the production cost sharing contract and the carbon emissions reduction revenue sharing contract cannot coordinate the supply chain, because that the sharing cost or carbon emissions reduction sharing revenue will transfer through the wholesale price mechanism. As a result, it requires more complicated contract forms to coordinate such a supply chain.

Keywords: cap-and-trade mechanism, carbon emissions reduction, conflict, supply chain coordination

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Authors: H. Florianová, J. Nešleha

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Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.

Keywords: capital markets, financial derivatives, investors' behavior, regulation

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Authors: Carlson Murray, Ali Lazrak

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Robust experimental evidence of systematic violations of expected utility (EU) establishes that individuals facing risk overweight utility from low probability gains and losses when making choices. These findings motivated development of models of preferences with probability weighting functions, such as rank dependent utility (RDU). We solve for the optimal investing strategy of an RDU investor in a dynamic binomial setting from which we derive implications for investing behavior. We show that relative to EU investors with constant relative risk aversion, commonly measured probability weighting functions produce optimal RDU terminal wealth with significant downside protection and upside exposure. We additionally find that in contrast to EU investors, RDU investors optimally choose a portfolio that contains fair bets that provide payo↵s that can be interpreted as lottery outcomes or exposure to idiosyncratic returns. In a calibrated version of the model, we calculate that RDU investors would be willing to pay 5% of their initial wealth for the freedom to trade away from an optimal EU wealth allocation. The dynamic trading strategy that supports the optimal wealth allocation implies portfolio weights that are independent of initial wealth but requires higher risky share after good stock return histories. Optimal trading also implies the possibility of non-participation when historical returns are poor. Our model fills a gap in the literature by providing new quantitative and qualitative predictions that can be tested experimentally or using data on household wealth and portfolio choice.

Keywords: behavioral finance, probability weighting, portfolio choice

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Authors: Maria Ulfa, Nur Awaliyah Putri

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Madurese is known as Malayo-Sumbawan Austronesian language which is used by Madurese people in Madura Island, Indonesia. However, there was a massive migration of Madurese people due to Dutch colonization. The Madurese people were brought by force for cultivation system to the eastern salient north coast or called as Tapal Kuda that spread in region covers the regencies of Probolinggo, Lumajang, Jember, Situbondo, Bondowoso, and Banyuwangi, the eastern part of the Pasuruan Regency, as well as the city of Probolinggo. The city of Probolinggo has unique characteristic regarding the ethnic and language variation. Several ethnics can be found in this city, such as Madurese, Javanese, Tengger, Arabic, Mandhalungan, Osing, and Chinese. Hence, the hybrid culture happens in Probolinggo, they called the culture as Pendhalungan which is the combination of culture among Madurese and Javanese. Among those ethnics, Madurese is the strongest ethnic that still maintains their identity, such as their ethnic language. The massive growth of Madurese in Probolinggo city, East Java is interesting to be analyzed. The object of this study is to discover language ideology and literacy of Madurese to maintain their ethnic language in Probolinggo city, East Java. The researchers used the theory of language maintenance practice based on three types of practices social language, social literacy, and peripheral ritualized practices. The approach of this study was qualitative research with ethnography method. In order to collect the data, researchers used observation and interview techniques. The amount of informants were 20 families which consist of mother, father and children in 5 sub-districts in Probolinggo city and they were interviewed regarding language ideology and literacy of Madurese. In supporting the data, researchers employed the Madurese speakers outside family scope like in school, office, and market. The result of the study revealed that Madurese has been preserved heritably to young generations by ethnics of Madura in Probolinggo city. Primarily the language is being taught in the earlier age of their children as L1 and used as ethnic identity. The parents teach them with simple sentences that grammatically correct. This language literacy is applied to maintain ethnic language as their ethnicity marker since they inhabit in Javanese ethnic area. In fact, it is not the only ideology of Madurese ethnic but also the influence of economic situation like in trading communication. The usage of Madurese in the trading scope is very beneficial since people can bargain the goods cheaper and easier because most of the traders are from Madurese ethnic. In this situation, linguistic phenomena such as code mixing and code switching between Madurese and Javanese are emerged as the trading communication. From the result, it can be concluded that solidarity exists among Madurese people in many scopes.

Keywords: language literacy, language maintenance, Madurese, Probolinggo City

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Authors: Vivek Upadhayay, Siddharth Deshmukh

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In recent years utilization of renewable energy sources has increased majorly because of the increase in global warming concerns. Organization these days are generally operated by Micro grid or smart grid on a small level. Power optimization and optimal load tripping is possible in a smart grid based industry. In any plant or industry loads can be divided into different categories based on their importance to the plant and power requirement pattern in the working days. Coming up with an idea to divide loads in different such categories and providing different power management algorithm to each category of load can reduce the power cost and can come handy in balancing stability and reliability of power. An objective function is defined which is subjected to a variable that we are supposed to minimize. Constraint equations are formed taking difference between the power usages pattern of present day and same day of previous week. By considering the objectives of minimal load tripping and optimal power distribution the proposed problem formulation is a multi-object optimization problem. Through normalization of each objective function, the multi-objective optimization is transformed to single-objective optimization. As a result we are getting the optimized values of power required to each load for present day by use of the past values of the required power for the same day of last week. It is quite a demand response scheduling of power. These minimized values then will be distributed to each load through an algorithm used to optimize the power distribution at a greater depth. In case of power storage exceeding the power requirement, profit can be made by selling exceeding power to the main grid.

Keywords: power flow optimization, power trading enhancement, smart grid, multi-object optimization

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Authors: Birtukan Atinkut Asmare

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Climate change disproportionately affects many Africans who heavily rely on climate-exposed sectors such as rain-fed agriculture and fishing, rendering them highly vulnerable. Gender plays a significant role, as men and women experience unequal impacts and vulnerabilities due to gender norms, labor divisions, resource access, and power dynamics. Drawing on an integrated framework, this study sheds light on the gendered impacts of climate change on household’s livelihood, their vulnerability, and adaptation in rural Ethiopia's Lake Tana Basin. This study utilized mixed research methods, integrating diverse qualitative techniques such as focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations, along with quantitative data gathered through household surveys. The findings reveal that women-headed households were more vulnerable to climate change than male-headed households. Flood was the major climate-induced hazards in the area that threatened the lives and livelihoods of households. In response to climate change, households undertook different adaptation measures such as agroforestry practices, crop diversification, seasonal migration, petty trading, charcoal and fuel wood sales. However, the adaptation strategies were slightly varied based on the gender of the household head. Women-headed households specifically engaged in fuelwood collection and selling and petty trading activities. The main constraints for adaptation were limited access to technologies, extension services, information, and financial services. Therefore, this research urges attention from research, policy, and advisory services on rural households who are trying to survive in the face of climate change.

Keywords: agriculture, climate change impacts, ethiopia, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Jeaha Yang, Ahmed Khan, Donna L. Rodela, Mohammed A. Qaudeer

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Traditional supply chain silos still exist today due to the difficulty of establishing trust between various partners and technological barriers across industries. Companies lose opportunities and revenue and inadvertently make poor business decisions resulting in further challenges. Blockchain technology can bring a new level of transparency through sharing information with a distributed ledger in a decentralized manner that creates a basis of trust for business. Blockchain is a loosely coupled, hub-style communication network in which trading partners can work indirectly with each other for simpler integration, but they work together through the orchestration of their supply chain operations under a coherent process that is developed jointly. A Blockchain increases efficiencies, lowers costs, and improves interoperability to strengthen and automate the supply chain management process while all partners share the risk. Blockchain ledger is built to track inventory lifecycle for supply chain transparency and keeps a journal of inventory movement for real-time reconciliation. State design patterns are used to capture the life cycle (behavior) of inventory management as a state machine for a common, transparent and coherent process which creates an opportunity for trading partners to become more responsive in terms of changes or improvements in process, reconcile discrepancies, and comply with internal governance and external regulations. It enables end-to-end, inter-company visibility at the unit level for more accurate demand planning with better insight into order fulfillment and replenishment.

Keywords: supply chain management, inventory trace-ability, perpetual inventory system, inventory lifecycle, blockchain, inventory consignment, supply chain transparency, digital thread, demand planning, hyper ledger fabric

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

Abstract:

With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Umit Cali

Abstract:

The integration of intermittent energy sources like wind farms into the electricity grid has become an important challenge for the utilization and control of electric power systems, because of the fluctuating behaviour of wind power generation. Wind power predictions improve the economic and technical integration of large amounts of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Trading, balancing, grid operation, controllability and safety issues increase the importance of predicting power output from wind power operators. Therefore, wind power forecasting systems have to be integrated into the monitoring and control systems of the transmission system operator (TSO) and wind farm operators/traders. The wind forecasts are relatively precise for the time period of only a few hours, and, therefore, relevant with regard to Spot and Intraday markets. In this work predictive data mining techniques are applied to identify a statistical and neural network model or set of models that can be used to predict wind power output of large onshore and offshore wind farms. These advanced data analytic methods helps us to amalgamate the information in very large meteorological, oceanographic and SCADA data sets into useful information and manageable systems. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. This study is also dedicated to an in-depth consideration of issues such as the comparison of day ahead and the short-term wind power forecasting results, determination of the accuracy of the wind power prediction and the evaluation of the energy economic and technical benefits of wind power forecasting.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, wind power, forecasting, data mining, big data, artificial intelligence, energy economics, power trading, power grids

Procedia PDF Downloads 517

Authors: Alireza Naserpoor

Abstract:

Derivatives are the most important innovation which has happened in the past decades. When it comes to financial markets, it has changed the whole way of operations of stock, commodities and currency market. Beside a lot of advantages, Conventional derivatives contracts have some disadvantages too. Some problems have been caused by derivatives contain raising Volatility, increasing Bankruptcies and causing financial crises. Standard Parallel Salam contract as an Islamic financial product meanwhile is a financing instrument can be used for risk management by investors. Standard Parallel Salam is a Shari’ah-Compliant contract. Furthermore, it is an alternative to conventional derivatives. Despite the fact that the unstructured types of that, has been used in several Islamic countries, This contract as a structured and standard financial instrument introduced in Iran Mercantile Exchange in 2014. In this paper after introducing parallel Salam, we intend to examine a collection of international experience and local measure regarding launching standard parallel Salam contract and proceed to describe standard scenarios for trading this instrument and practical experience in Iran Mercantile Exchange about this instrument. Afterwards, we make a comparison between SPS and Futures contracts as a conventional derivative. Standard parallel salam contract as an Islamic financial product, can be used for risk management by investors. SPS is a Shariah-Compliant contract. Furthermore it is an alternative to conventional derivatives. This contract as a structured and standard financial instrument introduced in Iran Mercantile Exchange in 2014. despite the fact that the unstructured types of that, has been used in several Islamic countries. In this article after introducing parallel salam, we intend to examine a collection of international experience and local measure regarding launching standard parallel salam contract and proceed to describe standard scenarios for trading this instrument containing two main approaches in SPS using, And practical experience in IME about this instrument Afterwards, a comparison between SPS and Futures contracts as a conventional derivatives.

Keywords: futures contracts, hedging, shari’ah compliant instruments, standard parallel salam

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: M. Stelmachowski, M. Wojtczak

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The aim of the work was to assess the environmental impact of the selected small and medium-sized companies supplying heat and electricity to the cities with a population of about 50,000 inhabitants. Evaluation and comparison of the impact on the environment have been carried out for the three plants producing heat and two CHP plants with particular attention to emissions into the atmosphere and the impact of introducing a system of trading carbon emissions of these companies.

Keywords: CO2 emission, district heating, heat and power plant, impact on environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Abdulrahman Aloufi

Abstract:

E-commerce has evolved to become a functional and mainstream tool of global trading, including in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Consequently, online consumers need protection just as much as consumers in the offline world. In 2019, the Ministry of Commerce in Saudi Arabia established a so-called ‘e-commerce law’; however, this law does not cover the court enforcement of contracts entered into by international vendors, so it is not applicable in cross-border situations. The purpose of this paper is to identify the gaps present in this new e-commerce law in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: consumer protection, e-commerce law, Saudi consumer, international vendor

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Tran Van Long

Abstract:

Beyond trade facilitation, transparency in the WTO legal context is, implicitly and explicitly, aimed at addressing problems in domestic administrative law. Through the lens of global governance, this paper attempts to shed more light on the power of transparency norms enshrined in multilateral trading agreements under the aegis of the WTO. In this global ruled-base system, transparency has become sufficiently powerful to be a multifunctional instrument for promoting rule of law, good governance, and democracy.

Keywords: WTO, transparency, good governance, rule of law, global administrative law.

Procedia PDF Downloads 282

Authors: I. Hakki Eraslan, Birol Ozturk, Istemi Comlekci

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This paper begins by defining what is meant by “globalization” in finance and by identifying the sources of value-added in the internationally-competitive financial services sector origination, trading and distribution of debt and equity capital market instruments and their derivatives, foreign exchange trading and securities brokerage, management of market risk and credit risk, loan syndication and structured bank financings, corporate finance and advisory services, and asset management. These activities are considered in terms of a “value-chain” one that ultimately gives rise to the real economic gains attributable to financial-center operations. The research presents available evidence as to where the relevant value-added activities usually take place. It then examines the “centrifugal” and “centripetal” forces that determine the concentration or dispersal of value-added activity in financial intermediation, both interregionally and internationally. Next, the research assesses the factors, which appear to underlie the locational pattern of international financial centers that has evolved. In preparing this paper, also it is examined the current position and the main opportunities and challenges facing world major financial services sector, and attempted to lay out a potential vision and strategies. It is conducted extensive research, including many internal research materials and publications. It is also engaged closely with the academia, industry practitioners and regulators, and consulted market experts from major world financial centers. More than 60 in‐depth consultative sessions were conducted in the past two years which provided insightful suggestions and innovative ideas on how to further financial industry’s position as an international financial centre. The paper concludes with the outlook for the future pattern of financial centers in the global competitive environment. The ideas and advice gathered are condensed into this paper that recommends to the strategic decision leaders a vision and a strategy for financial services sector to move forward amid a highly competitive environment.

Keywords: financial centers, competitiveness, financial services industry, economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 401