Search results for: likelihood ratio test

Authors: Sunghoon Park, Hank Kim, Jinwon An, Sungzoon Cho

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Internet of Things allows one to collect data from facilities which are then used to monitor them and even predict malfunctions in advance. Conventional quality control methods focus on setting a normal range on a sensor value defined between a lower control limit and an upper control limit, and declaring as an anomaly anything falling outside it. However, interactions among sensor values are ignored, thus leading to suboptimal performance. We propose a multivariate approach which takes into account many sensor values at the same time. In particular Gaussian Mixture Model is used which is trained to maximize likelihood value using Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The number of Gaussian component distributions is determined by Bayesian Information Criterion. The negative Log likelihood value is used as an anomaly score. The actual usage scenario goes like a following. For each instance of sensor values from a facility, an anomaly score is computed. If it is larger than a threshold, an alarm will go off and a human expert intervenes and checks the system. A real world data from Building energy system was used to test the model.

Keywords: facility anomaly detection, gaussian mixture model, anomaly score, expectation maximization algorithm

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Authors: Yin-Yee Leong, Jack C. Yue, Hsin-Chung Wang

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Human longevity has been experiencing its largest increase since the end of World War II, and modeling the mortality rates is therefore often the focus of many studies. Among all mortality models, the Lee–Carter model is the most popular approach since it is fairly easy to use and has good accuracy in predicting mortality rates (e.g., for Japan and the USA). However, empirical studies from several countries have shown that the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant in time. Many modifications of the Lee–Carter model have been proposed to deal with this problem, including adding an extra cohort effect and adding another period effect. In this study, we propose a spatial modification and use clusters to explain why the age parameters of the Lee–Carter model are not constant. In spatial analysis, clusters are areas with unusually high or low mortality rates than their neighbors, where the “location” of mortality rates is measured by age and time, that is, a 2-dimensional coordinate. We use a popular cluster detection method—Spatial scan statistics, a local statistical test based on the likelihood ratio test to evaluate where there are locations with mortality rates that cannot be described well by the Lee–Carter model. We first use computer simulation to demonstrate that the cluster effect is a possible source causing the problem of the age parameters not being constant. Next, we show that adding the cluster effect can solve the non-constant problem. We also apply the proposed approach to mortality data from Japan, France, the USA, and Taiwan. The empirical results show that our approach has better-fitting results and smaller mean absolute percentage errors than the Lee–Carter model.

Keywords: mortality improvement, Lee–Carter model, spatial statistics, cluster detection

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Authors: Paul Bigala, Samuel Oladipo, Steven Adebowale

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This study examines factors influencing knowledge of HIV/AIDS Prevention Practices and Transmission (KHAPPT) among young undergraduate students (15-24 years). Knowledge composite index was computed for 820 randomly selected students. Chi-square, ANOVA, and multinomial logistic regression were used for the analyses (α=.05). The overall mean knowledge score was 16.5±3.4 out of a possible score of 28. About 83% of the students have undergone HIV test, 21.0% have high KHAPPT, 18% said there is cure for the disease, 23% believed that asking for condom is embarrassing and 11.7% said it is safe to share unsterilized sharp objects with friends or family members. The likelihood of high KHAPPT was higher among students who have had HIV test (OR=3.314; C.I=1.787-6.145, p<0.001) even when other variables were used as control. The identified predictors of high KHAPPT were; ever had HIV test, faculty, and ever used any HIV/AIDS prevention services. North-West University Mafikeng should intensify efforts on the HIV/AIDS awareness program on the campus.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS knowledge, undergraduate students, HIV testing, Mafikeng

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Authors: Nouira Mariem, Ben Rayana Hazem, Ennigrou Samir

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Background and aim: During the past decade, the frequency of extrapulmonary forms of tuberculosis has increased. These forms are under-diagnosed using conventional tests. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis, using the ROC curve and Fagan’s Nomogram methodology. Methods: This was a case-control, multicenter study in 11 anti-tuberculosis centers in Tunisia, during the period from June to November2014. The cases were adults aged between 18 and 55 years with confirmed tuberculosis. Controls were free from tuberculosis. A data collection sheet was filled out and a TST was performed for each participant. Diagnostic accuracy measures of TST were estimated using ROC curve and Area Under Curve to estimate sensitivity and specificity of a determined cut-off point. Fagan’s nomogram was used to estimate its predictive values. Results: Overall, 1053 patients were enrolled, composed of 339 cases (sex-ratio (M/F)=0.87) and 714 controls (sex-ratio (M/F)=0.99). The mean age was 38.3±11.8 years for cases and 33.6±11 years for controls. The mean diameter of the TST induration was significantly higher among cases than controls (13.7mm vs.6.2mm;p=10-6). Area Under Curve was 0.789 [95% CI: 0.758-0.819; p=0.01], corresponding to a moderate discriminating power for this test. The most discriminative cut-off value of the TST, which were associated with the best sensitivity (73.7%) and specificity (76.6%) couple was about 11 mm with a Youden index of 0.503. Positive and Negative predictive values were 3.11% and 99.52%, respectively. Conclusion: In view of these results, we can conclude that the TST can be used for tuberculosis diagnosis with a good sensitivity and specificity. However, the skin induration measurement and its interpretation is operator dependent and remains difficult and subjective. The combination of the TST with another test such as the Quantiferon test would be a good alternative.

Keywords: tuberculosis, tuberculin skin test, ROC curve, cut-off

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Authors: Shinhao Yang, Hsiao-Chien Huang, Chin-Hsiang Luo

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The leakage of protective clothing is an important issue in the occupational health field. There is no quantitative method for measuring the leakage of personal protective equipment. This work aims to measure the quantitative leakage of the personal protective equipment by using the fluorochrome aerosol tracer. The fluorescent aerosols were employed as airborne particulates in a controlled chamber with ultraviolet (UV) light-detectable stickers. After an exposure-and-leakage test, the protective equipment was removed and photographed with UV-scanning to evaluate areas, color depth ratio, and aerosol deposition and shielding effects of the areas where fluorescent aerosols had adhered to the body through the protective equipment. Thus, this work built a calculation software for quantitative leakage ratio of protective clothing based on fluorescent illumination depth/aerosol concentration ratio, illumination/Fa ratio, aerosol deposition and shielding effects, and the leakage area ratio on the segmentation. The results indicated that the two-repetition total leakage rate of the X, Y, and Z type protective clothing for subject T were about 3.05, 4.21, and 3.52 (mg/m2). For five-repetition, the leakage rate of T were about 4.12, 4.52, and 5.11 (mg/m2).

Keywords: fluorochrome, deposition, shielding effects, digital image processing, leakage ratio, personal protective equipment

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

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The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans (HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities (probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case, is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation. The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.

Keywords: generalized extreme values, likelihood estimation, precipitation data, Wakeby distribution

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Authors: Wael M Albadri, Hassnen M Jafer, Ehab H Sfoog

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Relationship between undrained shear strength (Su) and over consolidation ratio (OCR) of clay soil (marine clay) is very important in the field of geotechnical engineering to estimate the settlement behaviour of clay and to prepare a small scale physical modelling test. In this study, a relationship between shear strength and OCR parameters was determined using the laboratory vane shear apparatus and the fully automatic consolidated apparatus. The main objective was to establish non-linear correlation formula between shear strength and OCR and comparing it with previous studies. Therefore, in order to achieve this objective, three points were chosen to obtain 18 undisturbed samples which were collected with an increasing depth of 1.0 m to 3.5 m each 0.5 m. Clay samples were prepared under undrained condition for both tests. It was found that the OCR and shear strength are inversely proportional at similar depth and at same undrained conditions. However, a good correlation was obtained from the relationships where the R2 values were very close to 1.0 using polynomial equations. The comparison between the experimental result and previous equation from other researchers produced a non-linear correlation which has a similar pattern with this study.

Keywords: shear strength, over-consolidation ratio, vane shear test, clayey soil

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Authors: Kalpana Jamdhade, Anita Chorey, Bharti Tijare, V. M. Bhale

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A field experiment was conducted during summer season of 2011 at Agronomy research farm, Dr. PDKV, Akola, to study the effect of irrigation regime and nitrogen levels on growth and productivity of summer sesame. The experiment was laid out in split plot Design in which three irrigation scheduling on the basis of IW/CPE ratio viz., irrigation at 0.6, 0.8 and 1.0 IW/CPE ratios (I1, I2 and I3, respectively) and one irrigation scheduling based on critical growth stages of sesame (I4), in main plot and three nitrogen levels 0, 30 and 60 kg N ha-1 (N0, N1 and N2, respectively) in subplot. The result showed that plant height, number of leaves plant-1, leaf area and dry matter accumulation were maximum in irrigation scheduling at 1.0 IW/CPE ratio, which significantly superior over 0.6 IW/CPE ratio and irrigation at critical growth stages but were statistically at par with irrigation at 0.8 IW/CPE ratio. Nitrogen levels, application of 60 kg N ha-1 was recorded significantly superior all growth parameters over treatment 30 kg N ha-1 and 0 kg N ha-1. In case of yield attributes viz., No. of capsules plant-1, Test wt., grain yield and Stalk yield (qha-1) were maximum in irrigation scheduling at 1.0 IW/CPE ratio and were significantly superior over 0.8 IW/CPE ratio, 0.6 IW/CPE ratio and irrigation at critical growth stages. Application of 60 kg N ha-1 increased all yield attributing characters over application of 30 and 0 kg N ha-1. In case of economics of crop same trend was found and the highest B:C ration was obtained in irrigation scheduling at 1.0 IW/CPE ratio. Whereas, application of 30 kg N ha-1 was recorded highest B:C ration over application of 60 and 0 kg N ha-1. Interaction effect of irrigation and nitrogen levels were found to be non significant in summer season.

Keywords: irrigation regimes, nitrogen levels, summer sesame, agricultural technology

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Authors: Jianli Chang, Yusheng Zhang, Yali Yao, Diane Hildebrandt, Xinying Liu

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The influence of feed-gas ratio on the ethene hydroformylation over an Rh-Co bimetallic catalyst supported by reduced graphene oxide (RGO) has been investigated in a tubular fixed bed reactor. Argon was used as balance gas when the feed-gas ratio was changed, which can keep the partial pressure of the other two kinds of gas constant while the ratio of one component in feed-gas was changed. First, the effect of single-component gas ratio on the performance of ethene hydroformylation was studied one by one (H₂, C₂H₄ and CO). Then an optimized ratio was found to obtain a high selectivity to C₃ oxygenates. The results showed that: (1) 0.5%Rh-20%Co/RGO is a promising heterogeneous catalyst for ethene hydroformylation. (2) H₂ and CO have a more significant influence than C₂H₄ on selectivity to oxygenates. (3) A lower H₂ ratio and a higher CO ratio in feed-gas can lead to a higher selectivity to oxygenates. (4) The highest selectivity to oxygenates, 61.70%, was obtained at the feed-gas ratio CO: C₂H₄: H₂ = 4: 2: 1.

Keywords: ethene hydroformylation, reduced graphene oxide, rhodium cobalt bimetallic catalyst, the effect of feed-gas ratio

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Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

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Authors: S. Sharma, U. Batra, S. Kapoor, A. Dua

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In this study, the effects and interactions of reaction time and capping agent assistance during sol-gel synthesis of magnesium substituted hydroxyapatite nanopowder (MgHA) on hydroxyapatite (HA) to β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) ratio, Ca/P ratio and mean crystallite size was examined experimentally as well as through statistical analysis. MgHA nanopowders were synthesized by sol-gel technique at room temperature using aqueous solution of calcium nitrate tetrahydrate, magnesium nitrate hexahydrate and potassium dihydrogen phosphate as starting materials. The reaction time for sol-gel synthesis was varied between 15 to 60 minutes. Two process routes were followed with and without addition of triethanolamine (TEA) in the solutions. The elemental compositions of as-synthesized powders were determined using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy. The functional groups present in the as-synthesized MgHA nanopowders were established through Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). The amounts of phases present, Ca/P ratio and mean crystallite sizes of MgHA nanopowders were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). The HA content in biphasic mixture of HA and β-TCP and Ca/P ratio in as-synthesized MgHA nanopowders increased effectively with reaction time of sols (p < 0.0001, two way Anova), however, these were independent of TEA addition (p > 0.15, two way Anova). The MgHA nanopowders synthesized with TEA assistance exhibited 14 nm lower crystallite size (p < 0.018, 2 sample t-test) compared to the powder synthesized without TEA assistance.

Keywords: capping agent, hydroxyapatite, regression analysis, sol-gel, 2- sample t-test, two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA)

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Authors: Fariba Azizi, Firoozeh Haghighi, Viliam Makis

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In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Keywords: cause of failure, linear degradation path, reliability function, expectation-maximization algorithm, intensity, masked data

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Authors: Belinda Brunner

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Objectives: Communicate common test constructs of well-known higher education admissions tests. Discuss influences on admissions test construct definition and design and discuss research on related to factors influencing success in academic study. Discuss how admissions tests can be used to identify relevant talent. Examine how admissions test can be used to facilitate educational mobility and inform selection decisions when the prerequisite curricula is not standardized Observations: Generally speaking, constructs of admissions tests can be placed along a continuum from curriculum-related knowledge to more general reasoning abilities. For example, subject-specific achievement tests are more closely aligned to a prescribed curriculum, while reasoning tests are typically not associated with a specific curriculum. This session will draw reference from the test-constructs of well-known international higher education admissions tests, such as the UK clinical aptitude test (UKCAT) which is used for medicine and dentistry admissions. Conclusions: The purpose of academic admissions testing is to identify potential students with the prerequisite skills set needed to succeed in the academic environment, but how can the test construct help achieve this goal? Determination of the appropriate test construct for tests used in the admissions selection decisions should be influenced by a number of factors, including the preceding academic curricula, other criteria influencing the admissions decision, and the principal purpose for testing. Attendees of this session will learn the types of aptitudes and knowledge that are assessed higher education admissions tests and will have the opportunity to gain insight into how careful and deliberate consideration of the desired test constructs can aid in identifying potential students with the greatest likelihood of success in medical school.

Keywords: admissions, measuring success, selection, identify skills

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Authors: Choi Woo-Seok, Kim Eun-Sup, Ha Eun-Ryong

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Converter slag is used as a low-value product like a construction fill material and soil stabilizer unlike electric furnace slag and blast furnace slag. This study is fundamental research for utilizing the converter slag as the cement admixture. Magnetic separation was conducted for quality improvement of the converter slag, and it was classified according to into 3 types; SA: pure slag, SB: separated slag, SC: remained slag after separating. In XRF result, SB slag was Fe₂CO₃ ratio was higher, and CaO ratio was lower than SA. SC slag was Fe₂CO₃ ratio was lower, and CaO ratio was higher than SA. In compressive strength test for soil cement using SA, SB, SC as the cement admixture, SC slag was more effective in terms of 28days compressive strength than SA, SB slag. In this result, it is considered that the remained material (SC) after magnetic separation is available as the cement admixture.

Keywords: converter slag, magnetic separation, cement admixture, compressive strength

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Authors: Pawan Kumar, Dhananjoy Shaw, Manoj Kumar Rathi

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Purpose of the study were to compare between (a) frequencies among the four quartiles of percentile norms of autonomic variables from power events and (b) frequencies among the four quartiles percentile norms of autonomic variables from aerobic events of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports in regard to number of samples falling in each quartile. The study was conducted on 430 males of 30 to 35 years of age. Based on the nature of game/sports the retired sportspersons were classified into power events (throwers, judo players, wrestlers, short distance swimmers, cricket fast bowlers and power lifters) and aerobic events (long distance runners, long distance swimmers, water polo players). Date was collected using ECG polygraphs. Data were processed and extracted using frequency domain analysis and time domain analysis. Collected data were computed with frequency, percentage of each quartile and finally the frequencies were compared with the chi square analysis. The finding pertaining to norm reference comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian sportspersons withdrawn from competitive games and sports from (a) power events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile namely Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, Total Power (Absolute Power), HF (Absolute Power), LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, valsalva manoeuvre, hand grip test, cold pressor test and lying to standing test, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD, SDANN, NN50 Count, pNN50 Count, LF (Absolute Power) and 30: 15 Ratio (b) aerobic events suggests that frequency distribution in four quartile are significantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDNN, LF (Normalized Power), HF (Normalized Power), LF/HF ratio, deep breathing test, expiratory respiratory ratio, hand grip test, cold pressor test, lying to standing test and 30: 15 ratio, whereas, insignificantly different at .05 level in regard to variables namely, SDSD, RMSSD. SDANN, NN50 count, pNN50 count, Total Power (Absolute Power), LF(Absolute Power) HF(Absolute Power), and valsalva manoeuvre. The study concluded that comparison of frequencies among the four quartiles of Indian retired sportspersons from power events and aerobic events are different in four quartiles in regard to selected autonomic functions, hence the developed percentile norms are not homogenously distributed across the percentile scale; hence strengthen the percentage distribution towards normal distribution.

Keywords: power, aerobic, absolute power, normalized power

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Authors: Guneet Saini, Uthej Vattipalli

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In a world with increased demand for sustainable construction, waste product of one industry could be a boon to the other in reducing the carbon footprint. Usage of industrial waste such as fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag have become the epicenter of curbing the use of cement, one of the major contributors of greenhouse gases. In this paper, empirical studies have been done to develop alkali activated self-compacting geopolymer concrete (GPC) using ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBS), incorporated with 2% nano-silica by weight, through evaluation of its fresh and hardening properties. Experimental investigation on 6 mix designs of varying molarity of 10M, 12M and 16M of the alkaline solution and a binder content of 450 kg/m³ and 500 kg/m³ has been done and juxtaposed with GPC mix design composed of 16M alkaline solution concentration and 500 kg/m³ binder content without nano-silica. The sodium silicate to sodium hydroxide ratio (SS/SH), alkaline activator liquid to binder ratio (AAL/B) and water to binder ratio (W/B), which significantly affect the performance and mechanical properties of GPC, were fixed at 2.5, 0.45 and 0.4 respectively. To catalyze the early stage geopolymerisation, oven curing is done maintaining the temperature at 60˚C. This paper also elucidates the test results for fresh self-compacting concrete (SCC) done as per EFNARC guidelines. The mechanical properties tests conducted were: compressive strength test after 7 days, 28 days, 56 days and 90 days; flexure test; split tensile strength test after 28 days, 56 days and 90 days; X-ray diffraction test to analyze the mechanical performance and sorptivity test for testing of permeability. The study revealed that the sample of 16M concentration of alkaline solution with 500 Kg/m³ binder content containing 2% nano silica produced the highest compressive, flexural and split tensile strength of 81.33 MPa, 7.875 MPa, and 6.398 MPa respectively, at the end of 90 days.

Keywords: alkaline activator liquid, geopolymer concrete, ground granulated blast furnace slag, nano silica, self compacting

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Authors: Shaoxi Wang, Pouya Rezai

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High aspect ratio is the necessary parts of complex microstructures. Some methods available to achieve high aspect ratio requires expensive materials or complex process; others is difficult to research simple high aspect ratio structures. The paper presents a simple and cheap two-step Polydimethylsioxane (PDMS) transferring process to get high aspect ratio single pillars, which only requires covering the PDMS mold with Brij@52 surface solution. The experimental results demonstrate the method efficiency and effective.

Keywords: high aspect ratio, microstructure, PDMS, Brij

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Authors: Mohar Kassim, Hardy Azmir, Rahmat Sholihin Mokhtar

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The purpose of this study is to build portable application software to determine the level of cardiovascular fitness for cadet students of the National Defence University of Malaysia (NDUM). Fitness in the context of this study refers to physical fitness, specifically the cardiovascular endurance level test battery in the form of a 2.4 km run test for UPNM cadet students. This run test will be conducted to measure, test, and evaluate the performance of UPNM cadet students. All the run test results can be recorded electronically inside the portable software and will later be able to show the level of cardiovascular fitness of every cadet student according to age and gender. This software can also calculate the body mass index (BMI). Normative survey method will be used in this study through the analysis of the 2.4 km run test results. The run test scores will be classified in interval and ratio scales. Based on the findings of this study, portable application software will produced. The software will be able to directly assist the Military Training Academy (ALK), Malaysian Armed Forces (ATM), and other relevant agencies in determining the level of cardiovascular fitness among their staff. The test can be done electronically and on portable mode. The next step to be taken is to have this application patented.

Keywords: development, software, application, portable, fitness norms, cardiovascular endurance

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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Authors: Aisha Arshad, Samina Naz Mukry, Tahir Shamsi

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Background: Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an autoimmune disorder. Besides platelets counts, immature platelets fraction (IPF) can be used as tool to predict megakaryocytic activity in ITP patients. The clinical biomarkers like Neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio (NLR) and platelet to lymphocytes ratio(PLR) predicts inflammation and can be used as prognostic markers.The present study was planned to assess the ratios in ITP and their utility in predicting prognosis after treatment. Methods: A total of 111 patients of ITP with same number of healthy individuals were included in this case control study during the period of January 2015 to December 2017.All the ITP patients were grouped according to guidelines of International working group of ITP. A 3cc blood was collected in EDTA tube and blood parameters were evaluated using Sysmex 1000 analyzer.The ratios were calculated by using absolute counts of Neutrophils,Lymphocytes and platelets.The significant (p=<0.05) difference between ITP patients and healthy control groups was determined by Kruskal wallis test, Dunn’s test and spearman’s correlation test was done using SPSS version 23. Results: The significantly raised total leucocytes counts (TLC) and IPF along with low platelets counts were observed in ITP patients as compared to healthy controls.In ITP groups,very low platelet count with median and IQR of 2(3.8)3x109/l with highest mean and IQR IPF 25.4(19.8)% was observed in newly diagnosed ITP group. The NLR was high with prognosis of disease as higher levels were observed in P-ITP. The PLR was significantly low in ND-ITP ,P-ITP, C-ITP, R-ITP and compared to controls with p=<0.001 as platelet were less in number in all ITP patients. Conclusion: The IPF can be used in evaluation of bone marrow response in ITP. The simple, reliable and calculated NLR and PLR ratios can be used in predicting prognosis and response to treatment in ITP and to some extend the severity of disease.

Keywords: neutrophils, platelets, lymphocytes, infection

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

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We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of real life data set.

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Dunyazad K. Assi, Alan S. Abdulrahman

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Current ACI 318 Code provides two limits for minimum steel ratio for concrete beams. When concrete compressive strength be larger than 31 MPa the limit of √(fc')/4fy usually governs. In this paper shortcomings related to using this limit was fairly discussed and showed that the limit is based on 90% safety factor and was derived based on modulus of rupture equation suitable for concretes of compressive strength lower than 31 MPa. Accordingly, the limit is nor suitable and critical for concretes of higher compressive strength. An alternative equation was proposed for minimum steel ratio of rectangular beams and was found that the proposed limit is accurate for beams of wide range of concrete compressive strength. Shortcomings of the current ACI 318 Code equation and accuracy of the proposed equation were supported by test data obtained from testing six reinforced concrete beams.

Keywords: concrete beam, compressive strength, minimum steel ratio, modulus of rupture

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Authors: Vinod K. Singh, S. G. Chung

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The degree of structuration of Busan clays at the mouth of Nakdong River mouth was highly influenced by the depositional environment, i.e., flow of the river stream, marine regression, and transgression during the sedimentation process. As a result, the geotechnical properties also varies along the depth with change in degree of structuration. Thus, the in-situ tests such as cone penetration test (CPT) could not be used to predict various geotechnical properties properly by using the conventional empirical methods. In this paper, the shear wave velocity (Vs) was measured from the field using the seismic dilatometer. The Vs was also measured in the laboratory from high quality undisturbed and remolded samples using bender element method to evaluate the degree of structuration. The degree of structuration was quantitatively defined by the modulus ratio of undisturbed to remolded soil samples which is found well correlated with the normalized void ratio (e0/eL) where eL is the void ratio at the liquid limit. It is revealed that the empirical method based on laboratory results incorporating e0/eL can predict Vs from the field more accurately. Thereafter, the CPT based empirical method was developed to estimate the shear wave velocity taking the effect of structuration in the consideration. The developed method was found to predict shear wave velocity reasonably for Busan clays.

Keywords: level of structuration, normalized modulus, normalized void ratio, shear wave velocity, site characterization

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Authors: Soudabeh Shemehsavar

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the situation under a life test, in which the failure time of the test units are not related deterministically to an observable stochastic time varying covariate. In such a case, the joint distribution of failure time and a marker value would be useful for modeling the step stress life test. The problem of accelerating such an experiment is considered as the main aim of this paper. We present a step stress accelerated model based on a bivariate Wiener process with one component as the latent (unobservable) degradation process, which determines the failure times and the other as a marker process, the degradation values of which are recorded at times of failure. Parametric inference based on the proposed model is discussed and the optimization procedure for obtaining the optimal time for changing the stress level is presented. The optimization criterion is to minimize the approximate variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of a percentile of the products’ lifetime distribution.

Keywords: bivariate normal, Fisher information matrix, inverse Gaussian distribution, Wiener process

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Authors: Randa Alharbi, Vladislav Vyshemirsky

Abstract:

Systems biology is an important field in science which focuses on studying behaviour of biological systems. Modelling is required to produce detailed description of the elements of a biological system, their function, and their interactions. A well-designed model requires selecting a suitable mechanism which can capture the main features of the system, define the essential components of the system and represent an appropriate law that can define the interactions between its components. Complex biological systems exhibit stochastic behaviour. Thus, using probabilistic models are suitable to describe and analyse biological systems. Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is one of the probabilistic models that describe the system as a set of discrete states with continuous time transitions between them. The system is then characterised by a set of probability distributions that describe the transition from one state to another at a given time. The evolution of these probabilities through time can be obtained by chemical master equation which is analytically intractable but it can be simulated. Uncertain parameters of such a model can be inferred using methods of Bayesian inference. Yet, inference in such a complex system is challenging as it requires the evaluation of the likelihood which is intractable in most cases. There are different statistical methods that allow simulating from the model despite intractability of the likelihood. Approximate Bayesian computation is a common approach for tackling inference which relies on simulation of the model to approximate the intractable likelihood. Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is another approach which is based on using sequential Monte Carlo to estimate intractable likelihood. However, both methods are computationally expensive. In this paper we discuss the efficiency and possible practical issues for each method, taking into account the computational time for these methods. We demonstrate likelihood-free inference by performing analysing a model of the Repressilator using both methods. Detailed investigation is performed to quantify the difference between these methods in terms of efficiency and computational cost.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian computation(ABC), Continuous-Time Markov Chains, Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC)

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Authors: Arthur Thirion

Abstract:

Auxetic geometries allow the generation of a negative Poisson ratio (NPR) in conventional materials. This behaviour allows materials to have certain improved mechanical properties, including impact resistance and altered synclastic behaviour. This means these structures have significant potential when it comes to applications as chronic wound dressings. To this end, 6 different "perforated sheet" structure types were 3D printed. These structures all had variations of key geometrical features included cell length and angle. These were tested in compression and tension to assess their Poisson ratio. Both a positive and negative Poisson ratio was generated by the structures depending on the loading. The a/b ratio followed by θ has been shown to impact the Poisson ratio significantly. There is still a significant discrepancy between modelled and observed behaviour.

Keywords: auxetic materials, 3D printing, negative Poisson's ratio, tunable Poisson's ratio

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Authors: Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Shunsuke Mori, Kazuhisa Kamegai

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to forecast the influences of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on the structural changes of Japanese economies based on Leontief Input-Output (IO) coefficients. This study establishes a statistical analysis to predict the future interrelationships among industries. We employ the Constrained Multivariate Regression (CMR) model to analyze the historical changes of input-output coefficients. Statistical significance of the model is then tested by Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). In our model, ICT is represented by two explanatory variables, i.e. computers (including main parts and accessories) and telecommunications equipment. A previous study, which analyzed the influences of these variables on the structural changes of Japanese industrial sectors from 1985-2005, concluded that these variables had significant influences on the changes in the business circumstances of Japanese commerce, business services and office supplies, and personal services sectors. The projected future Japanese economic structure based on the above forecast generates the differentiated direct and indirect outcomes of ICT penetration.

Keywords: forecast, ICT, industrial structural changes, statistical analysis

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Authors: Man-Yu Wong, Siyu Zhou, Zhiqiang Cao

Abstract:

In quality of life, health service utilization is an important determinant of medical resource expenditures on Colorectal cancer (CRC) care, a better understanding of the increased utilization of health services is essential for optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources to services and thus for enhancing the service quality, especially for high expenditure on CRC care like Hong Kong region. In assessing the association between the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm, count data models can be used, which account for over dispersion or extra zero counts. In our data, the HRQOL evaluation is a self-reported measure obtained from a questionnaire completed by the patients, misreports and variations in the data are inevitable. Besides, there are more zero counts from the observed number of clinical consultations (observed frequency of zero counts = 206) than those from a Poisson distribution with mean equal to 1.33 (expected frequency of zero counts = 156). This suggests that excess of zero counts may exist. Therefore, we study tests for detecting zero-inflation in models with measurement error in covariates. Method: Under classical measurement error model, the approximate likelihood function for zero-inflation Poisson regression model can be obtained, then Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation(AMLE) can be derived accordingly, which is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. By calculating score function and Fisher information based on AMLE, a score test is proposed to detect zero-inflation effect in ZIP model with measurement error. The proposed test follows asymptotically standard normal distribution under H0, and it is consistent with the test proposed for zero-inflation effect when there is no measurement error. Results: Simulation results show that empirical power of our proposed test is the highest among existing tests for zero-inflation in ZIP model with measurement error. In real data analysis, with or without considering measurement error in covariates, existing tests, and our proposed test all imply H0 should be rejected with P-value less than 0.001, i.e., zero-inflation effect is very significant, ZIP model is superior to Poisson model for analyzing this data. However, if measurement error in covariates is not considered, only one covariate is significant; if measurement error in covariates is considered, only another covariate is significant. Moreover, the direction of coefficient estimations for these two covariates is different in ZIP regression model with or without considering measurement error. Conclusion: In our study, compared to Poisson model, ZIP model should be chosen when assessing the association between condition-specific HRQOL and health service utilization in patients with colorectal neoplasm. and models taking measurement error into account will result in statistically more reliable and precise information.

Keywords: count data, measurement error, score test, zero inflation

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Authors: J. Rhodes, V. Cheng, P. Lok

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to develop a parsimonious model that explains the effect of different stimulus on a tourist’s intention to visit a new destination. The model consists of destination trust and interest as the mediating variables. The model was tested using two different types of stimulus; both studies empirically supported the proposed model. Furthermore, the first study revealed that advertising has a stronger effect than positive online reviews. The second study found that the peripheral route of the elaboration likelihood model has a stronger influence power than the central route in this context.

Keywords: advertising, electronic word-of-mouth, elaboration likelihood model, intention to visit, trust

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Authors: Aktan Ozsoy, Ali Fırat Cabalar, Eyyub Karakan

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the biggest issues facing communities. Increasing population, growing economies, rapid industrialization are the main factors triggering it. On the other hand, the millions of tons of waste have generated by the period of rapid global growth not only harm to the environment but also lead to the use of valuable lands around the world as landfill sites. Moreover, it is rapidly consuming our resources and this forcing the human population and wildlife to share increasingly shrinking space. In this direction, it is vital to reuse waste materials with a sustainability philosophy. This study was carried out to contribute to the combat against climate change, conserve our natural resources and the environment. An oedometer (consolidation) test was performed on two waste materials combined in certain proportions to evaluate their sustainable usage. Crushed brick (BD) was mixed with rock powder (RP) in 0, 5, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50% (dry weight of soil). The results obtained revealed the importance of the gradation of the material used in the consolidation test. It was found that there was a negligible difference between the initial and final void ratio of mixtures with brick dust added.

Keywords: waste material, oedometer test, environmental geotechnics, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 73