Search results for: high and low prices

Authors: Anna Ching-Yu Wong

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Introduction: Textbooks play a sizable portion of the overall cost of higher education students. It is a board consent that open education resources (OER) reduce the te4xtbook costs and provide students a way to receive high-quality learning materials at little or no cost to them. However, there is less agreement over exactly how much. This study presents an approach for calculating OER savings by using SUNY Canton NON-OER courses (N=233) to estimate the potentially textbook savings for one semester – Fall 2022. The purpose in collecting data is to understand how much potentially saved from using OER materials and to have a record for future further studies. Literature Reviews: In the past years, researchers identified the rising cost of textbooks disproportionately harm students in higher education institutions and how much an average cost of a textbook. For example, Nyamweya (2018) found that on average students save $116.94 per course when OER adopted in place of traditional commercial textbooks by using a simple formula. Student PIRGs (2015) used reports of per-course savings when transforming a course from using a commercial textbook to OER to reach an estimate of $100 average cost savings per course. Allen and Wiley (2016) presented at the 2016 Open Education Conference on multiple cost-savings studies and concluded $100 was reasonable per-course savings estimates. Ruth (2018) calculated an average cost of a textbook was $79.37 per-course. Hilton, et al (2014) conducted a study with seven community colleges across the nation and found the average textbook cost to be $90.61. There is less agreement over exactly how much would be saved by adopting an OER course. This study used SUNY Canton as a case study to create an approach for estimating OER savings. Methodology: Step one: Identify NON-OER courses from UcanWeb Class Schedule. Step two: View textbook lists for the classes (Campus bookstore prices). Step three: Calculate the average textbook prices by averaging the new book and used book prices. Step four: Multiply the average textbook prices with the number of students in the course. Findings: The result of this calculation was straightforward. The average of a traditional textbooks is $132.45. Students potentially saved $1,091,879.94. Conclusion: (1) The result confirms what we have known: Adopting OER in place of traditional textbooks and materials achieves significant savings for students, as well as the parents and taxpayers who support them through grants and loans. (2) The average textbook savings for adopting an OER course is variable depending on the size of the college and as well as the number of enrollment students.

Keywords: textbook savings, open textbooks, textbook costs assessment, open access

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Authors: Krzysztof Zieliński, Dariusz Kierzek

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The addition of a small amount of alumina cement to Portland cement results in immediate setting, a rapid increase in the compressive strength and a clear increase of the adhesion to concrete substrate. This phenomenon is used, among others, for the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds. Alumina cement is several times more expensive than Portland cement and is a component having a significant impact on prices of products manufactured with its use. For the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds, low-alumina cement containing approximately 40% Al₂O₃ is normally used. The aim of the study was to determine the impact of Portland cement with the addition of alumina cement on the basic physical and mechanical properties of cement slurries and mortars. CEM I 42.5R and three types of alumina cement containing 40%, 50% and 70% of Al₂O₃ were used for the tests. Mixes containing 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and 12% of different varieties of alumina cement were prepared; for which, the time of initial and final setting, compressive and flexural strength and adhesion to concrete substrate were determined. The analysis of the obtained test results showed that a similar immediate setting effect and clearly better adhesion strength can be obtained using the addition of 6% of high-alumina cement than 12% of low-alumina cement. As the prices of these cements are similar, this can give significant financial savings in the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds.

Keywords: alumina cement, immediate setting, compression strength, adhesion to substrate

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: M. Y. Saleh, G. M. ELanany, M. H. Elzahar, M. Z. Elshikhipy

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Industrial wastewater discharge, which carries high concentrations of dissolved solids and iron, could be treated by high rate activated sludge stage of the multiple-stage sludge treatment plant, a system which is characterized by high treatment efficiency, optimal prices, and small areas compared with conventional activated sludge treatment plants. A pilot plant with an influent industrial discharge flow of 135 L/h was designed following the activated sludge system to simulate between the biological and chemical treatment with the addition of dosages 100, 150, 200 and 250 mg/L alum salt to the aeration tank. The concentrations of total dissolved solids (TDS) and iron (Fe) in industrial discharge flow had an average range of 140000 TDS and 4.5 mg/L iron. The optimization of the chemical-biological process using a dosage of 200 mg/L alum succeeded to improve the removal efficiency of TDS and total iron to 48.15% and 68.11% respectively.

Keywords: wastewater, activated sludge, TDS, total iron

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, Rogers A. Akinsokeji

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For many resource-rich developing countries, fiscal policy has become a key tool used for short-run fiscal management since it is considered as playing a critical role in injecting part of resource rents into the economies. However, given its instability, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning and the efficient use of public resources difficult. In this study, the linkage between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is investigated. The main question is whether commodity price fluctuations affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in these countries. Fiscal management effectiveness is considered as the ability of fiscal policy to react countercyclically to output gaps in the economy. Fiscal policy is measured as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP and the ratio of government spending to GDP, output gap is measured as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of output growth for each country, while commodity prices are associated with each country based on its main export commodity. Given the dynamic nature of fiscal policy effects on the economy overtime, a dynamic framework is devised for the empirical analysis. The panel cointegration and error correction methodology is used to explain the relationships. In particular, the study employs the panel ECM technique to trace short-term effects of commodity prices on fiscal management and also uses the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine the long run relationships. These procedures provide sufficient estimation of the dynamic effects of commodity prices on fiscal policy. Data used cover the period 1992 to 2016 for 11 SSA countries. The study finds that the elasticity of the fiscal policy measures with respect to the output gap is significant and positive, suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among the countries in the sample. This implies that fiscal management for these countries follows the trend of economic performance. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization for these countries. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to the unstable revenue inflows due to the highly volatile nature of commodity prices in the international market. For commodity-exporting countries in SSA to improve fiscal management, therefore, fiscal planning should be largely decoupled from commodity revenues, domestic revenue bases must be improved, and longer period perspectives in fiscal policy management are the critical suggestions in this study.

Keywords: commodity prices, ECM, fiscal policy, fiscal procyclicality, fully modified OLS, sub-saharan africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Pallavi Kishore, Mariam Aslam

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The sharp decline in oil prices that started in 2014 affected most economies in the world either positively or negatively. In some economies, particularly the oil exporting countries, the effects were felt immediately. The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC henceforth) countries are oil and gas-dependent with the largest oil reserves in the world. UAE (United Arab Emirates) has been striving to diversify away from oil and expects higher non-oil growth in 2018. These two factors, falling oil prices and the economy strategizing away from oil dependence, make a compelling case to study the financial performance of various sectors in the economy. Among other sectors, the insurance sector is widely recognized as an important indicator of the health of the economy. An expanding population, surge in construction and infrastructure, increased life expectancy, greater expenditure on automobiles and other luxury goods translate to a booming insurance sector. A slow-down of the insurance sector, on the other hand, may indicate a general slow-down in the economy. Therefore, a study on the insurance sector will help understand the general nature of the current economy. This study involves calculations and comparisons of ratios pre and post the fall in oil prices in the insurance sector in the UAE. A sample of 33 companies listed on the official stock exchanges of UAE-Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange were collected and empirical analysis employed to study the financial performance pre and post fall in oil prices. Ratios were calculated in 5 categories: Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Efficiency, and Investment. The means pre- and post-fall are compared to conclude that the profitability ratios including ROSF (Return on Shareholder Funds), ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) and NPM (Net Profit Margin) have all taken a hit. Parametric tests, including paired t-test, concludes that while the fall in profitability ratios is statistically significant, the other ratios have been quite stable in the period. The efficiency, liquidity, gearing and investment ratios have not been severely affected by the fall in oil prices. This may be due to the implementation of stronger regulatory policies and is a testimony to the diversification into the non-oil economy. The regulatory authorities can use the findings of this study to ensure transparency in revealing financial information to the public and employ policies that will help further the health of the economy. The study will also help understand which areas within the sector could benefit from more regulations.

Keywords: UAE, insurance sector, ratio analysis, oil price, profitability, liquidity, gearing, investment, efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Dávid Kovács, Bálint Csanády, Dániel Boros, Iván Ivkovic, Lóránt Nagy, Dalma Tóth-Lakits, László Márkus, András Lukács

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The modeling practice of financial instruments has seen significant change over the last decade due to the recognition of time-dependent and stochastically changing correlations among the market prices or the prices and market characteristics. To represent this phenomenon, the Stochastic Correlation Process (SCP) has come to the fore in the joint modeling of prices, offering a more nuanced description of their interdependence. This approach has allowed for the attainment of realistic tail dependencies, highlighting that prices tend to synchronize more during intense or volatile trading periods, resulting in stronger correlations. Evidence in statistical literature suggests that, similarly to the volatility, the SCP of certain stock prices follows rough paths, which can be described using fractional differential equations. However, estimating parameters for these equations often involves complex and computation-intensive algorithms, creating a necessity for alternative solutions. In this regard, the Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process from the family of fractional processes offers a promising path. We can effectively describe the rough SCP by utilizing certain transformations of the fOU. We employed neural networks to understand the behavior of these processes. We had to develop a fast algorithm to generate a valid and suitably large sample from the appropriate process to train the network. With an extensive training set, the neural network can estimate the process parameters accurately and efficiently. Although the initial focus was the fOU, the resulting model displayed broader applicability, thus paving the way for further investigation of other processes in the realm of financial mathematics. The utility of SCP extends beyond its immediate application. It also serves as a springboard for a deeper exploration of fractional processes and for extending existing models that use ordinary Wiener processes to fractional scenarios. In essence, deploying both SCP and fractional processes in financial models provides new, more accurate ways to depict market dynamics.

Keywords: fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, fractional stochastic processes, Heston model, neural networks, stochastic correlation, stochastic differential equations, stochastic volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Picha Sriprachan

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The increase in electricity prices affects the cost of high-rise building construction. The objectives of this research are to study the electrical cost, trend of electrical cost and to forecast electrical cost of high-rise building construction. The methods of this research are: 1) to study electrical payment formats, cost data collection methods, and the factors affecting electrical cost of high-rise building construction, 2) to study the quantity and trend of cumulative percentage of the electrical cost, and 3) to forecast the electrical cost for different types of high-rise buildings. The results of this research show that the average proportion between electrical cost and the value of the construction project is 0.87 percent. The proportion of electrical cost for residential, office and commercial, and hotel buildings are closely proportional. If construction project value increases, the proportion of electrical cost and the value of the construction project will decrease. However, there is a relationship between the amount of electrical cost and the value of the construction project. During the structural construction phase, the amount of electrical cost will increase and during structural and architectural construction phase, electrical cost will be maximum. The cumulative percentage of the electrical cost is related to the cumulative percentage of the high-rise building construction cost in the same direction. The amount of service space of the building, number of floors and the duration of the construction affect the electrical cost of construction. The electrical cost of construction forecasted by using linear regression equation is close to the electrical cost forecasted by using the proportion of electrical cost and value of the project.

Keywords: high-rise building construction, electrical cost, construction phase, architectural phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Anwar Hasan Abdullah Othman, Ahamed Kameel, Hasanuddeen Abdul Aziz

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In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The findings of the study showed that industrial production index, political election and financial crisis are the only variables having unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However, the global oil prices is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV. Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial production index, global oil prices, political election and financial crisis. However, the market is approaching towards informational efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables, treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate and corruption index.

Keywords: fund unit price, unit trust industry, Malaysia, macroeconomic variables, causality

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Authors: M. Khal, Ab. Algouti, A. Algouti

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Water erosion is the major cause of the erosion that shapes the earth's surface. Modeling water erosion requires the use of software and GIS programs, commercial or closed source. The very high prices for commercial GIS licenses, motivates users and researchers to find open source software as relevant and applicable as the proprietary GIS. The objective of this study is the modeling of water erosion and the hydrogeological and morphophysical characterization of the Oued M'Goun watershed (southern flank of the Central High Atlas) developed by free programs of GIS. The very pertinent results are obtained by executing tasks and algorithms in a simple and easy way. Thus, the various geoscientific and geostatistical analyzes of a digital elevation model (SRTM 30 m resolution) and their combination with the treatments and interpretation of satellite imagery information allowed us to characterize the region studied and to map the area most vulnerable to water erosion.

Keywords: central High-Atlas, hydrogeology, M’Goun watershed, OpenGis, water erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut

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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.

Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Ying Guo, Miaochan Li, David Yang, Xiao-Yan Li

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This paper examines the relevance of accounting information to stock prices at different periods using manufacturing companies listed in China’s Growth Enterprise Market (GEM). We find that both the average stock price at fiscal year-end and the average stock price one month after fiscal year-end are more relevant to the accounting information than the closing stock price four months after fiscal year-end. This implies that Chinese stock markets react before the public disclosure of accounting information, which may be due to information leak before official announcements. Our findings confirm that accounting information is relevant to stock prices for Chinese listed manufacturing companies, which is a critical question to answer for investors who have interest in Chinese companies.

Keywords: accounting information, response time, value relevance, stock price

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Oliver Takawira, Thembi Hope

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This study will analyse the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The aim is to determine whether Bitcoin price movements affect the stock market performance. As crypto currencies continue to gain prominence as a safe asset during periods of economic distress, this raises the question of whether Bitcoin’s prosperity could affect investment in the stock market. To identify the existence of a short run and long run linear relationship, the study will apply the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) bounds test and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing the data for unit roots and cointegration using the Augmented Dicker Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP). The Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) will then be used to check if there is a non-linear relationship between bitcoin prices and stock market prices.

Keywords: bitcoin, stock market, interest rates, ARDL

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Amit Das

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Background and significance of the study: Generally investors and market forecasters use financial statement for investigation while it awakens contribute to investing. The main vicinity of financial accounting and reporting practices recommends a few basic financial performance indicators, namely, return on capital employed, return on assets and earnings per share, which is associated considerably with share prices. It is principally true in case of Indian pharmaceutical companies also. Share investing is intriguing a financial risk in addition to investors look for those financial evaluations which have noteworthy shock on share price. A crucial intention of financial statement analysis and reporting is to offer information which is helpful predominantly to exterior clients in creating credit as well as investment choices. Sound financial performance attracts the investors automatically and it will increase the share price of the respective companies. Keeping in view of this, this research work investigates the impact of financial performance indicators on share price of pharmaceutical companies in India which is listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange. Methodology: This research work is based on secondary data collected from moneycontrol database on September 28, 2015 of top 101 pharmaceutical companies in India. Since this study selects four financial performance indicators purposively and availability in the database, that is, earnings per share, return on capital employed, return on assets and net profits as independent variables and one dependent variable, share price of 101 pharmaceutical companies. While analysing the data, correlation statistics, multiple regression technique and appropriate test of significance have been used. Major findings: Correlation statistics show that four financial performance indicators of 101 pharmaceutical companies are associated positively and negatively with its share price and it is very much significant that more than 80 companies’ financial performances are related positively. Multiple correlation test results indicate that financial performance indicators are highly related with share prices of the selected pharmaceutical companies. Furthermore, multiple regression test results illustrate that when financial performances are good, share prices have been increased steadily in the Bombay stock exchange and all results are statistically significant. It is more important to note that sensitivity indices were changed slightly through financial performance indicators of selected pharmaceutical companies in India. Concluding statements: The share prices of pharmaceutical companies depend on the sound financial performances. It is very clear that share prices are changed with the movement of two important financial performance indicators, that is, earnings per share and return on assets. Since 101 pharmaceutical companies are listed in the Bombay stock exchange and Sensex are changed with this, it is obvious that Government of India has to take important decisions regarding production and exports of pharmaceutical products so that financial performance of all the pharmaceutical companies are improved and its share price are increased positively.

Keywords: financial performance indicators, share prices, pharmaceutical companies, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Ursachi Andrei

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The Smart Grid Simulator is a computer software based on advanced algorithms which has as the main purpose to lower the energy bill in the most optimized price efficient way as possible for private households, companies or energy providers. It combines the energy provided by a number of solar modules and wind turbines with the consumption of one household or a cluster of nearby households and information regarding weather conditions and energy prices in order to predict the amount of energy that can be produced by renewable energy sources and the amount of energy that will be bought from the distributor for the following day. The user of the system will not only be able to minimize his expenditures on energy fractures, but also he will be informed about his hourly consumption, electricity prices fluctuation and money spent for energy bought as well as how much money he saved each day and since he installed the system. The paper outlines the algorithm that supports the Smart Grid Simulator idea and presents preliminary test results that support the discussion and implementation of the system.

Keywords: smart grid, sustainable energy, applied science, renewable energy sources

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Iman Atighi, Jalal Soleimannejad, Reza Pourjafarabadi, Saeid Moradpour

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In the past, we could increase profit by increasing product prices. But in the new decade, a competitive market does not let us to increase profit with increased prices. Therefore, the only way to increase profit will be to reduce costs. A significant percentage of production costs are the maintenance costs, and analysis of these costs could achieve more profit. Most maintenance strategies such as RCM (Reliability-Center-Maintenance), TPM (Total Productivity Maintenance), PM (Preventive Maintenance) and etc., are trying to reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, decreasing the maintenance costs of Concentration Plant of Golgohar Iron Ore Mining & Industrial Company (GeG) was examined by using of MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) and MTTR (Mean Time To Repair) analyses. These analyses showed that instead of buying new machines and increasing costs in order to promote capacity, the improving of MTBF and MTTR indexes would solve capacity problems in the best way and decrease costs.

Keywords: GeG company, maintainability, maintenance costs, reliability-center-maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Sungzoon Cho, Hye Jin Lee, Sungwhan Jeon, Dongyoung Min, Sungwon Lyu

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Major public corporations worldwide use conference calls to report their quarterly earnings. These 'earnings' conference calls allow for questions from stock analysts. We investigated if it is possible to identify sentiment from the call script and use it to predict stock price movement. We analyzed call scripts from six companies, two each from Korea, China and Indonesia during six years 2011Q1 – 2017Q2. Random forest with Frequency-based sentiment scores using Loughran MacDonald Dictionary did better than control model with only financial indicators. When the stock prices went up 20 days from earnings release, our model predicted correctly 77% of time. When the model predicted 'up,' actual stock prices went up 65% of time. This preliminary result encourages us to investigate advanced sentiment scoring methodologies such as topic modeling, auto-encoder, and word2vec variants.

Keywords: earnings call script, random forest, sentiment analysis, stock price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Francesco Berald, Yunhui Zhao

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The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices and lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers (through the initial housing wealth channel and the liquidity constraint channel that increases repeat buyers’ housing demand), and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.

Keywords: pricing-out, U.S. housing market, housing affordability, distributional effects, monetary policy

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Authors: Iman Atighi, Jalal Soleimannejad, Ahmad Akbarinasab, Saeid Moradpour

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In the past, we could increase profit by increasing product prices. But in the new decade, a competitive market does not let us to increase profit with increase prices. Therefore, the only way to increase profit will be reduce costs. A significant percentage of production costs are the maintenance costs, and analysis of these costs could achieve more profit. Most maintenance strategies such as RCM (Reliability-Center-Maintenance), TPM (Total Productivity Maintenance), PM (Preventive Maintenance) etc., are trying to reduce maintenance costs. In this paper, decreasing the maintenance costs of Concentration Plant of Golgohar Company (GEG) was examined by using of MTBF (Mean Time between Failures) and MTTR (Mean Time to Repair) analyses. These analyses showed that instead of buying new machines and increasing costs in order to promote capacity, the improving of MTBF and MTTR indexes would solve capacity problems in the best way and decrease costs.

Keywords: Golgohar Iron Ore Mining and Industrial Company, maintainability, maintenance costs, reliability-center-maintenance

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Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

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Authors: Benbya Hind, Belbaly Nassim

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Markets and communities are often cast as alternative forms of knowledge sharing, but an open question is how and why people dynamically transition between them. To study these transitions, we design a technology that allows geographically distributed participants to either buy knowledge (using virtual points) or request it for free. We use a data-driven, inductive approach, studying 550 members in over 5000 interactions, during nine months. Because the technology offered participants choices between market or community forms, we can document both individual and collective transitions that emerge as people cycle between these forms. Our inductive analysis revealed that uncertainties endemic to knowledge sharing were the impetus for these transitions. Communities evoke uncertainties about knowledge sharing’s costs and benefits, which markets resolve by quantifying explicit prices. However, if people manipulate markets, they create uncertainties about the validity of those prices, allowing communities to reemerge to establish certainty via identity-based validation.

Keywords: knowledge sharing, communities, information technology design, transitions, markets

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Authors: Seyran Naghdi

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Background: Orphan drug development is limited by very high costs attributed to the research and development and small size market. How health policymakers address this challenge to consider both supply and demand sides need to be explored for directing the policies and plans in the right way. The price is an important signal for pharmaceutical companies’ profitability and the patients’ accessibility as well. Objective: This study aims to find out the orphan drugs' price-setting patterns and approaches in health systems through a systematic review of the available evidence. Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach was used. MedLine, Embase, and Web of Sciences were searched via appropriate search strategies. Through Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), the appropriate terms for pricing were 'cost and cost analysis', and it was 'orphan drug production', and 'orphan drug', for orphan drugs. The critical appraisal was performed by the Joanna-Briggs tool. A Cochrane data extraction form was used to obtain the data about the studies' characteristics, results, and conclusions. Results: Totally, 1,197 records were found. It included 640 hits from Embase, 327 from Web of Sciences, and 230 MedLine. After removing the duplicates, 1,056 studies remained. Of them, 924 studies were removed in the primary screening phase. Of them, 26 studies were included for data extraction. The majority of the studies (>75%) are from developed countries, among them, approximately 80% of the studies are from European countries. Approximately 85% of evidence has been produced in the recent decade. Conclusions: There is a huge variation of price-setting among countries, and this is related to the specific pharmacological market structure and the thresholds that governments want to intervene in the process of pricing. On the other hand, there is some evidence on the availability of spaces to reduce the very high costs of orphan drugs development through an early agreement between pharmacological firms and governments. Further studies need to focus on how the governments could incentivize the companies to agree on providing the drugs at lower prices.

Keywords: orphan drugs, orphan drug production, pricing, costs, cost analysis

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Authors: Yusuf Seedat

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The necessity to understand global financial markets has increased following the unfortunate spread of the recent financial crisis around the world. Financial markets are considered to be complex systems consisting of highly volatile move-ments whose indexes fluctuate without any clear pattern. Analytic methods of stock prices have been proposed in which financial markets are modeled using common network analysis tools and methods. It has been found that two key components of social network analysis are relevant to modeling financial markets, allowing us to forecast accurate predictions of stock prices within the financial market. Financial markets have a number of interacting components, leading to complex behavioral patterns. This paper describes a social network approach to analyzing financial markets as a viable approach to studying the way complex stock markets function. We also look at how social network analysis techniques and metrics are used to gauge an understanding of the evolution of financial markets as well as how community detection can be used to qualify and quantify in-fluence within a network.

Keywords: network analysis, social networks, financial markets, stocks, nodes, edges, complex networks

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Authors: Chomba Kalunga

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Many developing countries have a rich endowment of natural resources. Yet, amidst that wealth, living standards remain poor. At the same time, international markets have been surged with an increase in copper prices in the last twenty years. This is a presentation of the findings on the causal economic impact of Zambia’s copper mines, a country located in sub-Saharan Africa endowed with vast copper deposits on living standards using household data from 1996 to 2010, exploiting an episode where the copper prices on the international market were rising. Using an Instrumental Variable approach and controlling for constituency-level and microeconomic factors, the results show a significant impact of copper production on living standards. After splitting the constituencies close to and far away from the nearest mine, the results document that constituencies close to the mines benefited significantly from the increase in copper production, compared to their counterparts through increased levels of employment. Finally, the results are not consistent with the natural resource curse hypothesis; findings show a positive causal relationship between the presence of natural resources and socioeconomic outcomes in less developed countries, particularly for constituencies close to the mines in Zambia. Some key policy implications follow from the findings. The finding that increased copper production led to an increase in employment suggests that, in Zambias’ context, policies that promote local employment may be more beneficial to residents. Meaning that it is government policies that can help improve the living standards were government needs to work towards making this impact more substantial.

Keywords: copper prices, local development, mining, natural resources

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Authors: R. T. Aggangan

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Woodfuels continue to be a major component of the energy supply mix of the Philippines due to increasing demand for energy that are not adequately met by decreasing supply and increasing prices of fuel oil such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene. The Development Academy of the Philippines projects the demand of woodfuels in 2016 as 28.3 million metric tons in the household sector and about 105.4 million metric tons combined supply potentials of both forest and non-forest lands. However, the Revised Master Plan for Forestry Development projects a demand of about 50 million cu meters of fuelwood in 2016 but the capability to supply from local sources is only about 28 million cu meters indicating a 44 % deficiency. Household demand constitutes 82% while industries demand is 18%. Domestic household demand for energy is for cooking needs while the industrial demand is for steam power generation, curing barns of tobacco: brick, ceramics and pot making; bakery; lime production; and small scale food processing. Factors that favour increased use of wood-based energy include the relatively low prices (increasing oil-based fuel prices), availability of efficient wood-based energy utilization technology, increasing supply, and increasing population that cannot afford conventional fuels. Moreover, innovations in combustion technology and cogeneration of heat and power from biomass for modern applications favour biomass energy development. This paper recommends policies and strategic directions for the development of the woodfuel industry with the twin goals of sustainably supplying the energy requirements of households and industry.

Keywords: biomass energy development, fuelwood, households and industry, innovations in combustion technology, supply and demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 309