Search results for: heuristics and biases approach

Authors: Sylvie Michel, Sylvie Gerbaix, Marc Bidan

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Artificial intelligence (AI) can be held accountable for its detrimental impacts. This question gains heightened relevance given AI's pervasive reach across various domains, magnifying its power and potential. The expanding influence of AI raises fundamental ethical inquiries, primarily centering on biases, responsibility, and transparency. This encompasses discriminatory biases arising from algorithmic criteria or data, accidents attributed to autonomous vehicles or other systems, and the imperative of transparent decision-making. This article aims to stimulate reflection on AI accountability, denoting the necessity to elucidate the effects it generates. Accountability comprises two integral aspects: adherence to legal and ethical standards and the imperative to elucidate the underlying operational rationale. The objective is to initiate a reflection on the obstacles to this "accountability," facing the challenges of the complexity of artificial intelligence's system and its effects. Then, this article proposes to mobilize Edgar Morin's complex thought to encompass and face the challenges of this complexity. The first contribution is to point out the challenges posed by the complexity of A.I., with fractional accountability between a myriad of human and non-human actors, such as software and equipment, which ultimately contribute to the decisions taken and are multiplied in the case of AI. Accountability faces three challenges resulting from the complexity of the ethical issues combined with the complexity of AI. The challenge of the non-neutrality of algorithmic systems as fully ethically non-neutral actors is put forward by a revealing ethics approach that calls for assigning responsibilities to these systems. The challenge of the dilution of responsibility is induced by the multiplicity and distancing between the actors. Thus, a dilution of responsibility is induced by a split in decision-making between developers, who feel they fulfill their duty by strictly respecting the requests they receive, and management, which does not consider itself responsible for technology-related flaws. Accountability is confronted with the challenge of transparency of complex and scalable algorithmic systems, non-human actors self-learning via big data. A second contribution involves leveraging E. Morin's principles, providing a framework to grasp the multifaceted ethical dilemmas and subsequently paving the way for establishing accountability in AI. When addressing the ethical challenge of biases, the "hologrammatic" principle underscores the imperative of acknowledging the non-ethical neutrality of algorithmic systems inherently imbued with the values and biases of their creators and society. The "dialogic" principle advocates for the responsible consideration of ethical dilemmas, encouraging the integration of complementary and contradictory elements in solutions from the very inception of the design phase. Aligning with the principle of organizing recursiveness, akin to the "transparency" of the system, it promotes a systemic analysis to account for the induced effects and guides the incorporation of modifications into the system to rectify deviations and reintroduce modifications into the system to rectify its drifts. In conclusion, this contribution serves as an inception for contemplating the accountability of "artificial intelligence" systems despite the evident ethical implications and potential deviations. Edgar Morin's principles, providing a lens to contemplate this complexity, offer valuable perspectives to address these challenges concerning accountability.

Keywords: accountability, artificial intelligence, complexity, ethics, explainability, transparency, Edgar Morin

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Authors: Clorinda Hogan, Shaun Abbott, Mark Halaki, Marcela Torres Catiglioni, Goshi Yamauchi, Lachlan Mitchell, James Salter, Michael Romann, Stephen Cobley

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Introduction: Common annual age-group competition structures unintentionally introduce participation inequalities, performance (dis)advantages and selection biases due to the effect of maturational variation between youth swimmers. On this basis, there are implications for improving performance evaluation strategies. Therefore the aim was to: (1) To determine maturity timing distributions in female youth swimming; (2) quantify the relationship between maturation status and 100-m FC performance; (3) apply Maturational-based Corrective Adjustment Procedures (Mat-CAPs) for removal of maturational status performance influences. Methods: (1) Cross-sectional analysis of 663 female (10-15 years) swimmers who underwent assessment of anthropometrics (mass, height and sitting height) and estimations of maturity timing and offset. (2) 100-m front-crawl performance (seconds) was assessed at Australian regional, state, and national-level competitions between 2016-2020. To determine the relationship between maturation status and 100-m front-crawl performance, MO was plotted against 100-m FC performance time. The expected maturity status - performance relationship for females aged 10-15 years of age was obtained through a quadratic function (y = ax2 + bx + c) from unstandardized coefficients. The regression equation was subsequently used for Mat-CAPs. (3) Participants aged 10-13 years were categorised into maturity-offset categories. Maturity offset distributions for Raw (‘All’, ‘Top 50%’ & ‘Top 25%’) and Correctively Adjusted swim times were examined. Chi-square, Cramer’s V and ORs determined the occurrence of maturation biases for each age group and selection level. Results—: (1) Maturity timing distributions illustrated overrepresentation of ‘normative’ maturing swimmers (11.82 ± 0.40 years), with a descriptive shift toward the early maturing relative to the normative population. (2) A curvilinear relationship between maturity-offset and swim performance was identified (R2 = 0.53, P < 0.001) and subsequently utilised for Mat-CAPs. (3) Raw maturity offset categories identified partial maturation status skewing towards biologically older swimmers at 10/11 and 12 years, with effect magnitudes increasing in the ‘Top 50%’ and ‘25%’ of performance times. Following Mat-CAPs application, maturity offset biases were removed in similar age groups and selection levels. When adjusting performance times for maturity offset, Mat-CAPs was successful in mitigating against maturational biases until approximately 1-year post Peak Height Velocity. The overrepresentation of ‘normative’ maturing female swimmers contrasted with the substantial overrepresentation of ‘early’ maturing male swimmers found previously in 100-m front-crawl. These findings suggest early maturational timing is not advantageous in females, but findings associated with Aim 2, highlight how advanced maturational status remained beneficial to performance. Observed differences between female and male maturational biases may relate to the differential impact of physiological development during pubertal years. Females experience greater increases of fat mass and potentially differing changes in body shape which can negatively affect swim performance. Conclusions: Transient maturation status-based participation and performance advantages were apparent within a large sample of Australian female youth 100-m FC swimmers. By removing maturity status performance biases within female youth swimming, Mat-CAPs could help improve participation experiences and the accuracy of identifying genuinely skilled female youth swimmers.

Keywords: athlete development, long-term sport participation, performance evaluation, talent identification, youth competition

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Authors: Björn de Kruijf, Arjen Edzes, Sietske Waslander

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In an ever-quickly changing society, lifelong development is seen as a solution to labor market problems by politicians and policymakers. In this paper, we investigate how policy instruments are used to increase participation in lifelong development and on which behavioral principles policy is based. Digitization, automation, and an aging population change society and the labor market accordingly. Skills that were once most sought after in the workforce can become abundantly present. For people to remain relevant in the working population, they need to continue adapting new skills useful in the current labor market. Many reports have been written that focus on the role of lifelong development in this changing society and how lifelong development can help keep people adapt and stay relevant. Inspired by these reports, governments have implemented a broad range of policies to support participation in lifelong development. The question we ask ourselves is how government policies promote participation in lifelong development. This stems from a complex interplay of policy instruments and learning. Regulation, economic and soft instruments can be combined to promote lifelong development, and different types of education further complex policies on lifelong development. Literature suggests that different stages in people’s lives might warrant different methods of learning. Governments could anticipate this in their policies. In order to influence people’s behavior, the government can tap into a broad range of sociological, psychological, and (behavioral) economic principles. The traditional economic assumption that behavior is rational is known to be only partially true, and the government can use many biases in human behavior to stimulate participation in lifelong development. In this paper, we also try to find which biases the government taps into to promote participation if they tap into any of these biases. The goal of this paper is to analyze government policies intended to promote participation in lifelong development. To do this, we develop a framework to analyze the policies on lifelong development. We specifically incorporate the role of learning and the behavioral principles underlying policy instruments in the framework. We apply this framework to the case of the Netherlands, where we examine a set of policy documents. We single out the policies the government has put in place and how they are vertically and horizontally related. Afterward, we apply the framework and classify the individual policies by policy instrument and by type of learning. We find that the Dutch government focuses on formal and non-formal learning in their policy instruments. However, the literature suggests that learning at a later age is mainly done in an informal manner through experiences.

Keywords: learning, lifelong development, policy analysis, policy instruments

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Authors: Usama Abdulwahab, Mohammed Wahab

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This paper presents the application of uncapacitated facility location problems (UFLP) and 1-median problems to support decision making in blood supply chain networks. A plethora of factors make blood supply-chain networks a complex, yet vital problem for the regional blood bank. These factors are rapidly increasing demand; criticality of the product; strict storage and handling requirements; and the vastness of the theater of operations. As in the UFLP, facilities can be opened at any of $m$ predefined locations with given fixed costs. Clients have to be allocated to the open facilities. In classical location models, the allocation cost is the distance between a client and an open facility. In this model, the costs are the allocation cost, transportation costs, and inventory costs. In order to address this problem the median algorithm is used to analyze inventory, evaluate supply chain status, monitor performance metrics at different levels of granularity, and detect potential problems and opportunities for improvement. The Euclidean distance data for some Ontario cities (demand nodes) are used to test the developed algorithm. Sitation software, lagrangian relaxation algorithm, and branch and bound heuristics are used to solve this model. Computational experiments confirm the efficiency of the proposed approach. Compared to the existing modeling and solution methods, the median algorithm approach not only provides a more general modeling framework but also leads to efficient solution times in general.

Keywords: approximate dynamic programming, facility location, perishable product, inventory model, blood platelet, P-median problem

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Authors: Divyansh Goel, Varun Jain

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Classical economics works on the principle that people are rational and analytical in their decision making and their choices fall in line with the most suitable option according to the dominant strategy in a standard game theory model. This model has failed at many occasions in estimating the behavior and dealings of rational people, giving proof of some other underlying heuristics and cognitive biases at work. This paper probes into the study of these factors, which fall under the umbrella of behavioral economics and through their medium explore the solution to a problem which a lot of nations presently face. There has long been a wide disparity in the number of people holding favorable views on organ donation and the actual number of people signing up for the same. This paper, in its entirety, is an attempt to shape the public policy which leads to an increase the number of organ donations that take place and close the gap in the statistics of the people who believe in signing up for organ donation and the ones who actually do. The key assumption here is that in cases of cognitive dissonance, where people have an inconsistency due to conflicting views, people have a tendency to go with the default choice. This tendency is a well-documented cognitive bias known as the status quo bias. The research in this project involves an assay of mandated choice models of organ donation with two case studies. The first of an opt-in system of Germany (where people have to explicitly sign up for organ donation) and the second of an opt-out system of Austria (every citizen at the time of their birth is an organ donor and has to explicitly sign up for refusal). Additionally, there has also been presented a detailed analysis of the experiment performed by Eric J. Johnson and Daniel G. Goldstein. Their research as well as many other independent experiments such as that by Tsvetelina Yordanova of the University of Sofia, both of which yield similar results. The conclusion being that the general population has by and large no rigid stand on organ donation and are gullible to status quo bias, which in turn can determine whether a large majority of people will consent to organ donation or not. Thus, in our paper, we throw light on how governments can use status quo bias to drive positive social change by making policies in which everyone by default is marked an organ donor, which will, in turn, save the lives of people who succumb on organ transplantation waitlists and save the economy countless hours of economic productivity.

Keywords: behavioral economics, game theory, organ donation, status quo bias

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Authors: Theopoula Karanikolaou

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During recent decades an increasing number of studies indicate the negative impact of gender stereotypes in various aspects of society as well as in everyday life. At the same time, children’s literature is considered an important factor of gender-role socialization as it provides young readers with socially accepted gender behavioral models. Using a content analysis approach, this research examines the female representations in Greek children’s literature published from 2009 to 2019. Results indicate that female characters are depicted as sensitive and tender both in texts and illustrations, traits that are almost absent in the male characters of the sample. Highlighting the emotional aspect of female characters in contrast with the restrained male attitude reproduces gender biases. Stereotypical gender representation in children’s literature cultivates further discrimination among men and women.

Keywords: children's literature, female representation, gender socialization, gender studies

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Authors: Laura V. Gonzalez, Juan B. Duarte, Luis A. Palacio

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Decision making can be conditioned by factors such as the environments, circumstances, behavioral biases, emotions, beliefs and preferences of the participants. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effect ‘amount of information’ and ‘number of options’, on the behavior of competitors under a bilateral negotiation context. For the above, it has been designed an experiment as a classroom game where they negotiate goods, under the condition that none of the players knows exactly the real value of the asset. The game is designed under the concept of zero-sum (non-cooperative game) and focuses on the fact that agents must anticipate the strategies of their opponent to improve their chances of winning in the negotiation. The empirical results show that, contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, players prefer to obtain low profits and losses, when faced with a higher expectation of losses, using sub-optimal strategies not in accordance with game theory.

Keywords: bilateral negotiation, classroom game, decision making, game theory

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Authors: S. H. Borghei, E. Teymourian, M. Mobin, G. M. Komaki, S. Sheikh

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Imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) is a recent meta-heuristic method that is inspired by the social evolutions for solving NP-Hard problems. The ICA is a population based algorithm which has achieved a great performance in comparison to other meta-heuristics. This study is about developing enhanced ICA approach to solve the cell formation problem (CFP) using sequence data. In addition to the conventional ICA, an enhanced version of ICA, namely EICA, applies local search techniques to add more intensification aptitude and embed the features of exploration and intensification more successfully. Suitable performance measures are used to compare the proposed algorithms with some other powerful solution approaches in the literature. In the same way, for checking the proficiency of algorithms, forty test problems are presented. Five benchmark problems have sequence data, and other ones are based on 0-1 matrices modified to sequence based problems. Computational results elucidate the efficiency of the EICA in solving CFP problems.

Keywords: cell formation problem, group technology, imperialist competitive algorithm, sequence data

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Authors: Cory A. Logston

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It is imperative researchers continue to explore every transformative strategy to increase empathy and awareness of racial bias. Racism is a social and political concept that uses stereotypical ideology to highlight racial inequities. Everyone has biases they may not be aware of toward disparate out-groups. There is some form of racism in every profession; doctors, lawyers, and teachers are not immune. There have been numerous successful and unsuccessful strategies to motivate and transform an individual’s unconscious biased attitudes. One method designed to induce a transformative experience and identify implicit bias is virtual reality (VR). VR is a technology designed to transport the user to a three-dimensional environment. In a virtual reality simulation, the viewer is immersed in a realistic interactive video taking on the perspective of a Black man. The viewer as the character experiences discrimination in various life circumstances growing up as a child into adulthood. For instance, the prejudice felt in school, as an adolescent encountering the police and false accusations in the workplace. Current research suggests that an immersive VR simulation can enhance self-awareness and become a transformative learning experience. This study uses virtual reality immersion and transformative learning theory to create empathy and identify any unintentional racial bias. Participants, White teachers, will experience a VR immersion to create awareness and identify implicit biases regarding Black students. The desired outcome provides a springboard to reconceptualize their own implicit bias. Virtual reality is gaining traction in the research world and promises to be an effective tool in the transformative learning process.

Keywords: empathy, implicit bias, transformative learning, virtual reality

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Authors: Amine Ganibardi, Cherif Arab Ali

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This paper addresses the data cleaning issue as a part of web usage data preprocessing within the scope of Web Usage Mining. Weblog data recorded by web servers within log files reflect usage activity, i.e., End-users’ clicks and underlying user-agents’ hits. As Web Usage Mining is interested in End-users’ behavior, user-agents’ hits are referred to as noise to be cleaned-off before mining. Filtering hits from clicks is not trivial for two reasons, i.e., a server records requests interlaced in sequential order regardless of their source or type, website resources may be set up as requestable interchangeably by end-users and user-agents. The current methods are content-centric based on filtering heuristics of relevant/irrelevant items in terms of some cleaning attributes, i.e., website’s resources filetype extensions, website’s resources pointed by hyperlinks/URIs, http methods, user-agents, etc. These methods need exhaustive extra-weblog data and prior knowledge on the relevant and/or irrelevant items to be assumed as clicks or hits within the filtering heuristics. Such methods are not appropriate for dynamic/responsive Web for three reasons, i.e., resources may be set up to as clickable by end-users regardless of their type, website’s resources are indexed by frame names without filetype extensions, web contents are generated and cancelled differently from an end-user to another. In order to overcome these constraints, a clustering-based cleaning method centered on the logging structure is proposed. This method focuses on the statistical properties of the logging structure at the requested and referring resources attributes levels. It is insensitive to logging content and does not need extra-weblog data. The used statistical property takes on the structure of the generated logging feature by webpage requests in terms of clicks and hits. Since a webpage consists of its single URI and several components, these feature results in a single click to multiple hits ratio in terms of the requested and referring resources. Thus, the clustering-based method is meant to identify two clusters based on the application of the appropriate distance to the frequency matrix of the requested and referring resources levels. As the ratio clicks to hits is single to multiple, the clicks’ cluster is the smallest one in requests number. Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering based on a pairwise distance (Gower) and average linkage has been applied to four logfiles of dynamic/responsive websites whose click to hits ratio range from 1/2 to 1/15. The optimal clustering set on the basis of average linkage and maximum inter-cluster inertia results always in two clusters. The evaluation of the smallest cluster referred to as clicks cluster under the terms of confusion matrix indicators results in 97% of true positive rate. The content-centric cleaning methods, i.e., conventional and advanced cleaning, resulted in a lower rate 91%. Thus, the proposed clustering-based cleaning outperforms the content-centric methods within dynamic and responsive web design without the need of any extra-weblog. Such an improvement in cleaning quality is likely to refine dependent analysis.

Keywords: clustering approach, data cleaning, data preprocessing, weblog data, web usage data

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Authors: Boris Melnikov, Ye Zhang, Dmitrii Chaikovskii

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We continue to consider one of the cybernetic methods in computational biology related to the study of DNA chains. Namely, we are considering the problem of reconstructing the not fully filled distance matrix of DNA chains. When applied in a programming context, it is revealed that with a modern computer of average capabilities, creating even a small-sized distance matrix for mitochondrial DNA sequences is quite time-consuming with standard algorithms. As the size of the matrix grows larger, the computational effort required increases significantly, potentially spanning several weeks to months of non-stop computer processing. Hence, calculating the distance matrix on conventional computers is hardly feasible, and supercomputers are usually not available. Therefore, we started publishing our variants of the algorithms for calculating the distance between two DNA chains; then, we published algorithms for restoring partially filled matrices, i.e., the inverse problem of matrix processing. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for restoring the distance matrix for DNA chains, and the primary focus is on enhancing the algorithms that shape the greedy function within the branches and boundaries method framework.

Keywords: DNA chains, distance matrix, optimization problem, restoring algorithm, greedy algorithm, heuristics

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Authors: Konstantinos Liagkouras, Konstantinos Metaxiotis

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In this paper we present a classification of the various technologies applied for the solution of the portfolio selection problem according to the discipline and the methodological framework followed. We provide a concise presentation of the emerged categories and we are trying to identify which methods considered obsolete and which lie at the heart of the debate. On top of that, we provide a comparative study of the different technologies applied for efficient portfolio construction and we suggest potential paths for future work that lie at the intersection of the presented techniques.

Keywords: portfolio selection, optimization techniques, financial models, stochastic, heuristics

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

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The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

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Authors: Mohamed Ali Ben Halima, Malik Koubi, Joseph Lanfranchi, Yohan Wloczysiak

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This article assesses the consequences on the frequency and duration of ordinary sick leave of the January 2012 and 2018 reforms modifying the scope of sick leave reimbursement in the French civil service. These reforms introduce a one-day waiting period which removes the compensation for the first day of ordinary sick leave. In order to evaluate these reforms, we use an administrative database from the National Pension Fund for local public employees (FPT). The first important result of our data analysis is that the one-day waiting period was not introduced at the same time in the French Local Public Service establishments, or even never in some. This peculiarity allows for an identification strategy using a difference-in-differences method based on the definition at each date of groups of employees treated and not treated by the reform, since establishments that apply the one-day waiting period coexist with establishments that do not apply it. Two types of estimators are used for this evaluation: individual and time fixed effects estimators and DIDM estimators which correct for the biases of the Two Way Fixed Effects one. The results confirm that the change in the sick pay system decreases the probability of having at least one ordinary sick leave as well as the number and duration of these episodes. On the other hand, the estimates show that longer leave episodes are not less affected than shorter ones. Finally, the validity tests of the estimators support the results obtained for the second period of 2018-2019, but suggest estimation biases for the period 2012-2013. The extent to which the endogeneity of the choices of implementation of the reform at the local level impact these estimates needs to be further tested.

Keywords: sick leave, one-day waiting period, territorial civil service, public policy evaluation

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Authors: Rachel Nir, Tina Mckee

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In the UK, reliance has been placed on the professions to ‘heal themselves’ in improving equality and diversity. This approach has faltered, in part due to the global economic climate, and stimulus is needed to make faster equality progress. Recent empirical evidence has identified specific diversity barriers, namely: the cost of training; the use of high school grades as a primary selection criteria; the significance of prior work experience in recruitment decisions; and recruitment from elite universities. Students from majority groups and affluent backgrounds are advantaged over their counterparts. We as educators are passionate about resisting this. We believe that education can be a key agent of change. As part of this belief, the presenters have recently designed learning and teaching materials for the 2015/16 academic year. These are aimed at undergraduate law students for the purpose of 1) educating them on career barriers; 2) helping them to develop personal strategies to overcome them; and 3) encouraging them to address their own biases, both conscious and implicit, so that they, themselves, may be fairer employers and managers in the future.

Keywords: career barriers, challenging professional bias, education, elitism, personal student strategies

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Authors: Abdulazeez Balogun Shittu

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This study investigates the role of self-overestimation and underestimation of others in fueling religious conflicts in Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods approach, this research examines how exaggerated self-perceptions and diminished views of others contribute to intergroup tensions, stereotypes, and violence. The findings reveal that self-overestimation and underestimation of others are significant predictors of religious conflict, mediated by factors such as intergroup bias, social identity, cultural narratives and lack of interfaith dialogue. The study also identifies the consequences of these biases, including Escalated sectarian violence, social cohesion erosion and polarized communities. To mitigate these effects, the research recommends interfaith education and dialogue initiatives, inclusive governance and policy frameworks and pluralistic media representation. This study contributes to the understanding of psychological and social dynamics driving religious conflict in Nigeria, informing evidence-based policies and interventions to promote peaceful coexistence.

Keywords: conflict resolution, intergroup relations, Nigeria, Religious conflict, self-overestimation, social psychology, underestimation of others

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Authors: Wenjiang Deng, Tian Mou, Yudi Pawitan, Trung Nghia Vu

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Estimation of isoform-level gene expression from RNA-seq data depends on simplifying assumptions, such as uniform reads distribution, that are easily violated in real data. Such violations typically lead to biased estimates. Most existing methods provide a bias correction step(s), which is based on biological considerations, such as GC content–and applied in single samples separately. The main problem is that not all biases are known. For example, new technologies such as single-cell RNA-seq (scRNA-seq) may introduce new sources of bias not seen in bulk-cell data. This study introduces a method called XAEM based on a more flexible and robust statistical model. Existing methods are essentially based on a linear model Xβ, where the design matrix X is known and derived based on the simplifying assumptions. In contrast, XAEM considers Xβ as a bilinear model with both X and β unknown. Joint estimation of X and β is made possible by simultaneous analysis of multi-sample RNA-seq data. Compared to existing methods, XAEM automatically performs empirical correction of potentially unknown biases. XAEM implements an alternating expectation-maximization (AEM) algorithm, alternating between estimation of X and β. For speed XAEM utilizes quasi-mapping for read alignment, thus leading to a fast algorithm. Overall XAEM performs favorably compared to other recent advanced methods. For simulated datasets, XAEM obtains higher accuracy for multiple-isoform genes, particularly for paralogs. In a differential-expression analysis of a real scRNA-seq dataset, XAEM achieves substantially greater rediscovery rates in an independent validation set.

Keywords: alternating EM algorithm, bias correction, bilinear model, gene expression, RNA-seq

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Authors: Sayed Kifayat Shah, Tang Zhongjun, Arfa Tanveer

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This study explores the significant heatwave effect on stock return and volatility. Using an ARCH/GARCH approach, it examines the relationship between the heatwave of Karachi, Islamabad, and Lahore on the KSE-100 index. It also explores the impact of heatwave on returns of the pharmaceutical and electronics industries. The empirical results confirm that that stock return is positively related to the heat waves of Karachi, negatively related to that of Islamabad, and is not affected by the heatwave of Lahore. Similarly, pharmaceutical and electronics indices are also positively related to heatwaves. These differences in results can be ascribed to the change in the behavior of the residents of that city. The outcomes are useful for understanding an investor's behavior reacting to weather and fluxes in stock price related to heatwave severity levels. The results can support investors in fixing biases in behavior.

Keywords: ARCH/GARCH model, heat wave, KSE-100 index, stock market return

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Authors: Caroline Lindlar, Eva Jakob

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Female entrepreneurs often face significant barriers in accessing funding due to biases from business angels, venture capitalists, and financial institutions, which tend to favor male entrepreneurs. These biases contribute to persistent funding disparities, with female entrepreneurs receiving less financial support than their male counterparts. The situation worsens when female entrepreneurs have prior experiences with venture failure, which diminishes their attractiveness to traditional investors. Venture failure, defined as the cessation of operations due to declining revenues, rising costs, or ownership changes, plays a substantial role in shaping funding opportunities. In response, female entrepreneurs frequently turn to alternative funding sources such as crowdlending, where gender biases are often reversed in favor of women, particularly when their ventures emphasize social value creation. While existing research highlights the positive impact of gender on crowdfunding success, it remains unclear how venture failure, known to negatively bias female entrepreneurs in traditional funding contexts, interacts with the positive effects of gender in crowdlending. This interaction is particularly relevant because crowdlending often involves non-professional funders who make repeated investment decisions under uncertainty, based on limited information and past experiences. Given that approximately one-third of ventures fail to deliver promised returns, the role of gender bias after failure in crowdlending is an important area of investigation. This study addresses How failure affects crowd funders’ gender bias in future funding decisions? Drawing on social role and role congruity theory, we posit that societal perceptions of women as more communal conflict with the agentic qualities traditionally associated with entrepreneurship. This incongruence may result in reduced confidence in the success of female entrepreneurs after failure, limiting their access to future funding. However, we also hypothesize that social framing may mitigate this bias by aligning perceptions of female entrepreneurs with traits such as warmth and caring, enhancing their appeal after failure. To test these assertions, it conducted a between-subject audio vignette experiment with 155 participants who listened to entrepreneur pitches manipulated by gender (male vs. female) and venture framing (social vs. commercial). Participants made initial investment decisions, received failure-related news about the venture, and then made subsequent investment decisions. Pre-tests with 159 participants ensured the validity and reliability of the experimental manipulations. Moreover, we did a metric conjoint analysis with 100 participants, and they had to decide between different crowdfunding campaigns based on the attributes of previous failure, gender, and venture mission. it findings reveal that failure activates gender biases in crowdlending. Female-led ventures receive significantly less funding after failure compared to male-led ventures, suggesting the positive bias toward female entrepreneurs in the pre-funding phase does not persist post-failure. Moreover, framing a venture as socially oriented exacerbates the negative effect of failure for female entrepreneurs, as they secure fewer funds after failure compared to male entrepreneurs leading similar social ventures. This indicates that role-congruent framing does not mitigate gender bias after failure. This study contributes to research on gender in entrepreneurship by exploring how failure impacts future funding for female entrepreneurs. It also expands social crowdfunding literature by examining social value framing and adds to the entrepreneurial failure literature by focusing on crowd funders’ post-failure behavior.

Keywords: gender bias, crowdfunding, investment failure, investment behavior, social entrepreneurship

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Authors: Keyao Li, Sai On Cheung

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Incorporation of alternative dispute resolution (ADR) mechanism has been the main feature of current trend of construction project dispute resolution (CPDR). ADR approaches have been identified as efficient mechanisms and are suitable alternatives to litigation and arbitration. Moreover, the use of ADR in this multi-tiered dispute resolution process often leads to repeated evaluations of a same dispute. Multi-tiered CPDR may become a breeding ground for cognitive biases. When completed knowledge is not available at the early tier of construction dispute resolution, disputing parties may form preconception of the dispute matter or the counterpart. This preconception would influence their information processing in the subsequent tier. Disputing parties tend to search and interpret further information in a self-defensive way to confirm their early positions. Their imbalanced information collection would boost their confidence in the held assessments. Their attitudes would be hardened and difficult to compromise. The occurrence of cognitive bias, therefore, impedes efficient dispute settlement. This study aims to explore ways to minimize bias in CPDR. Based on a comprehensive literature review, three types of bias minimizing approaches were collected: strategy-based, attitude-based and process-based. These approaches were further operationalized into bias minimizing measures. To verify the usefulness and practicability of these bias minimizing measures, semi-structured interviews were conducted with ten CPDR third party neutral professionals. All of the interviewees have at least twenty years of experience in facilitating settlement of construction dispute. The usefulness, as well as the implications of the bias minimizing measures, were validated and suggested by these experts. There are few studies on cognitive bias in construction management in general and in CPDR in particular. This study would be the first of its type to enhance the efficiency of construction dispute resolution by highlighting strategies to minimize the biases therein.

Keywords: bias, construction project dispute resolution, minimization, multi-tiered, semi-structured interview

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Authors: Hesham Osman

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The challenges facing aging urban infrastructure systems require a more holistic and comprehensive approach to their management. The large number of urban infrastructure renewal activities occurring in cities throughout the world leads to social, economic and environmental impacts on the communities in its vicinity. As such, a coordinated effort is required to streamline these activities. This paper presents a framework to enable temporal (time-based) coordination of water, sewer and road intervention activities. Intervention activities include routine maintenance, renewal, and replacement of physical assets. The coordination framework considers 1) Life-cycle costs, 2) Infrastructure level-of-service, and 3) Risk exposure to system operators. The model enables infrastructure asset managers to trade-off options of delaying versus bringing forward intervention activities of one system in order to be executed in conjunction with another co-located system in the right-of-way. The framework relies on a combination of meta-heuristics and goal-based optimization. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the framework, a case study for a major infrastructure corridor in Cairo, Egypt is taken as an example. Results show that the framework can be scaled-up to include other infrastructure systems located in the right-of-way like electricity, gas and telecom, provided that information can be shared among these entities.

Keywords: infrastructure, rehabilitation, construction, optimization

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Authors: John M. Ikome

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In the process of manufacturing, a machine breakdown usually forces a modified flow shop out of the prescribed state, this strategy reschedules part of the initial schedule to match up with the pre-schedule at some point with the objective to create a schedule that is reliable with the other production planning decisions like material flow, production and suppliers by utilizing a critical decision-making concept. We propose a rescheduling strategy and a match-up point that will have a determination procedure through an advanced feedback control mechanism to increase both the schedule quality and stability. These approaches are compared with alternative re-scheduling methods under different experimental settings.

Keywords: scheduling, heuristics, branch, integrated

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Authors: Jingsi Li, Neil S. Ferguson

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Time pressure could have an influence on the productivity, quality of decision making, and the efficiency of problem-solving. This has been mostly stemmed from cognitive research or psychological literature. However, a salient scarce discussion has been held for transport adjacent fields. It is conceivable that in many activity-travel contexts, time pressure is a potentially important factor since an excessive amount of decision time may incur the risk of late arrival to the next activity. The activity-travel rescheduling behavior is commonly explained by costs and benefits of factors such as activity engagements, personal intentions, social requirements, etc. This paper hypothesizes that an additional factor of perceived time pressure could affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior, thus leading to an impact on travel demand management. Time pressure may arise from different ways and is assumed here to be essentially incurred due to travelers planning their schedules without an expectation of unforeseen elements, e.g., transport disruption. In addition to a linear-additive utility-maximization model, the less computationally compensatory heuristic models are considered as an alternative to simulate travelers’ responses. The paper will contribute to travel behavior modeling research by investigating the following questions: how to measure the time pressure properly in an activity-travel day plan context? How do travelers reschedule their plans to cope with the time pressure? How would the importance of the activity affect travelers’ rescheduling behavior? What will the behavioral model be identified to describe the process of making activity-travel rescheduling decisions? How do these identified coping strategies affect the transport network? In this paper, a Mixed Heuristic Model (MHM) is employed to identify the presence of different choice heuristics through a latent class approach. The data about travelers’ activity-travel rescheduling behavior is collected via a web-based interactive survey where a fictitious scenario is created comprising multiple uncertain events on the activity or travel. The experiments are conducted in order to gain a real picture of activity-travel reschedule, considering the factor of time pressure. The identified behavioral models are then integrated into a multi-agent transport simulation model to investigate the effect of the rescheduling strategy on the transport network. The results show that an increased proportion of travelers use simpler, non-compensatory choice strategies instead of compensatory methods to cope with time pressure. Specifically, satisfying - one of the heuristic decision-making strategies - is adopted commonly since travelers tend to abandon the less important activities and keep the important ones. Furthermore, the importance of the activity is found to increase the weight of negative information when making trip-related decisions, especially route choices. When incorporating the identified non-compensatory decision-making heuristic models into the agent-based transport model, the simulation results imply that neglecting the effect of perceived time pressure may result in an inaccurate forecast of choice probability and overestimate the affectability to the policy changes.

Keywords: activity-travel rescheduling, decision making under uncertainty, mixed heuristic model, perceived time pressure, travel demand management

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Authors: Elaosi Vhurumuku

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During the past twenty years, there has been an increased interest by science educators in researching and developing teachers’ pedagogical content knowledge for teaching the nature of science (PCKNOS). While there has been this surge in interest in the idea of PCKNOS, there has not been a common understanding among NOS researchers as to how exactly the PCKNOS concept should be construed. In this paper, we analyse and evaluate published accredited journal articles on PCKNOS research. We also draw from our teaching experiences. The major points of foci are the researchers’ presentations of SMKNOS and their centres of attention regarding the elements of PCKNOS. Our content, cluster analysis, and evaluation of the studies on PCKNOS reveal that most researchers have presented SMKNOS in the form of a heuristic or a set of heuristics (targeted NOS ideas) to be mastered by teachers or learners. Furthermore, we found that most of the researchers’ attention has been on developing and recommending teacher pedagogical practices for teaching NOS. From this, we synthesize and propose a subject knowledge content structure and a pedagogical approach that we believe is relevant and appropriate for secondary school and science teacher education if the goal of science education for scientific literacy is to be achieved. The justification of our arguments is rooted in tracing and unpacking the origins and meaning of pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). From our analysis, synthesis, and evaluation, as well as teaching experiences, we distil and construct a meaning for the PCKNOS construct.

Keywords: pedagogical content knowledge, teaching, nature of science, construct, subject matter knowledge

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Authors: Kaddi Mohammed, Benahmed Khelifa D. Benatiallah

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A sensor network consists of a large number of sensors deployed in areas to monitor and communicate with each other through a wireless medium. The collected routing data in the network consumes most of the energy of the sensor nodes. For this purpose, multiple routing approaches have been proposed to conserve energy resource at the sensors and to overcome the challenges of its limitation. In this work, we propose a new low energy consumption routing protocol for wireless sensor networks based on a meta-heuristic methods. Our protocol is to operate more fairly energy when routing captured data to the base station.

Keywords: WSN, routing, energy, heuristic

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Mogens Saberi

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The following article focuses on a new seismic design approach for Denmark. Denmark is located in a low seismic zone and up till now a general and very simplified approach has been used to accommodate the effect of seismic loading. The current used method is presented and it is found that the approach is on the unsafe side for many building types in Denmark. The damages during time due to earth quake is presented and a seismic map for Denmark is developed and presented. Furthermore, a new design approach is suggested and compared to the existing one. The new approach is relatively simple but captures the effect of seismic loading more realistic than the existing one. The new approach is believed to the incorporated in the Danish Deign Code for building structures.

Keywords: low seismicity, new design approach, earthquakes, Denmark

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Ajeni Ari

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In addressing gender and transport, considerations of mobility disparities amongst users are important. Public transport (PT) policy and design do not efficiently account for the varied mobility practices between men and women, with literature only recently showing a movement towards gender inclusion in transport. Arrantly, transport policy and designs remain gender-blind to the variation of mobility needs. The global movement towards sustainability highlights the need for expeditious strategies that could mitigate biases within the existing system. At the forefront of such plan of action may, in part, be mandated inclusive infrastructural designs that stimulate user engagement with the transport system. Fundamentally access requires a means or an opportunity to entity, which for PT is an establishment of its physical environment and/or infrastructural design. Its practicality may be utilised with knowledge of shortcomings in tangible or intangible aspects of the service offerings allowing access to opportunities. To inform on existing biases in PT planning and design, this study analyses qualitative data to examine the opinions and lived experiences among transport user in Ireland. Findings show that infrastructural design plays a significant role in users’ engagement with the service. Paramount to accessibility are service provisions that cater to both user interactions and those of their dependents. Apprehension to use the service is more so evident with women in comparison to men, particularly while carrying out household duties and caring responsibilities at peak times or dark hours. Furthermore, limitations are apparent with infrastructural service offerings that do not accommodate the physical (dis)ability of users, especially universal design. There are intersecting factors that impinge on accessibility, e.g., safety and security, yet essentially, infrastructural design is an important influencing parameter to user perceptual conditioning. Additionally, data discloses the need for user intricacies to be factored in transport planning geared towards gender inclusivity, including mobility practices, travel purpose, transit time or location, and system integration.

Keywords: public transport, accessibility, women, transport infrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Masoud Shahmanzari

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The aim of this paper is to present a Variable Neighborhood Search (VNS) with Tabu Search (TS) conditions for the Roaming Salesman Problem (RSP). The RSP is a special case of the well-known traveling salesman problem (TSP) where a set of cities with time-dependent rewards and a set of campaign days are given. Each city can be visited on any day and a subset of cities can be visited multiple times. The goal is to determine an optimal campaign schedule consist of daily open/closed tours that visit some cities and maximizes the total net benefit while respecting daily maximum tour duration constraints and the necessity to return campaign base frequently. This problem arises in several real-life applications and particularly in election logistics where depots are not fixed. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP), in which we capture as many real-world aspects of the RSP as possible. We also present a hybrid metaheuristic algorithm based on a VNS with TS conditions. The initial feasible solution is constructed via a new matheuristc approach based on the decomposition of the original problem. Next, this solution is improved in terms of the collected rewards using the proposed local search procedure. We consider a set of 81 cities in Turkey and a campaign of 30 days as our largest instance. Computational results on real-world instances show that the developed algorithm could find near-optimal solutions effectively.

Keywords: optimization, routing, election logistics, heuristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Ali Bhayani

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College is a high involvement decision making where students are expected to evaluate several college offerings before selecting a college or a course to study. However, even in high involvement product like college, students get influenced by opinion leaders and suffer from social contagion. This narrative style study, involving 98 first year students, was able to demonstrate that social contagion differs with regards to gender, ethnicity and personality. Recommendations from students with academically strong background would impact on the college choice of the undergraduate students and limit information search. Study was able to identify the incidence of anchoring heuristics amongst the students. Managerial implications with regards to design of marketing campaign follows at the end of the study.

Keywords: social contagion, opinion leaders, higher education, consumer behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 366

Authors: Omyma Alosaimi, Asma Alsumait

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The website developer and designer should follow usability guidelines to provide a user-friendly interface. Many guidelines and heuristics have been developed by previous studies to help both the developer and designer in this task, but E-government websites are special cases that require specialized guidelines. This paper introduces a set of eighteen guidelines for evaluating the usability of e-government websites in general and Arabic e-government websites specifically, along with a check list of how to apply them. The validity and effectiveness of these guidelines were evaluated against a variety of user characteristics. The results indicated that the proposed set of guidelines can be used to identify qualitative similarities and differences with user testing and that the new set is best suited for evaluating general and e-governmental usability.

Keywords: e-government, human computer interaction, usability evaluation, usability guidelines

Procedia PDF Downloads 395