Search results for: credit rating

Authors: Liyu Adhi Kasari Sulung

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Poverty has been a major problem in Indonesia. Islamic micro finance (IMF) named Baitul Maal Wat Tamwil (Bmt) plays a prominent role to eradicate this. Indonesia as the biggest muslim country has many successful applied products such as worldwide adopt group-based lending approach, flexible financing for farmers, and gold pawning. The Problems related to these models are operation risk management and internal control system (ICS). A proper ICS will help an organization in preventing the occurrence of bad financing through detecting error and irregularities in its operation. This study aims to seek a proper risk management scheme of credit system in Bmt and internal control system’s rank for every stage. Risk management variables are obtained at the first In-Depth Interview (IDI) and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with Shariah supervisory boards, boards of directors, and operational managers. Survey was conducted covering nationwide data; West Java, South Sulawesi, and West Nusa Tenggara. Moreover, Content analysis is employed to build the relationship among these variables. Research Findings shows that risk management Characteristics in Indonesia involves ex ante, credit process, and ex post strategies to deal with risk in credit system. Ex-ante control consists of Shariah compliance, survey, group leader reference, and islamic forming orientation. Then, credit process involves saving, collateral, joint liability, loan repayment, and credit installment controlling. Finally, ex-post control includes shariah evaluation, credit evaluation, grace period and low installment provisions. In addition, internal control order sort three stages by its priority; Credit process as first rank, then ex-post control as second, and ex ante control as the last rank.

Keywords: internal control system, islamic micro finance, poverty, risk management

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Authors: Marija Vicic

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The purpose of commercial credit regulation in an unified way under Law on Foreign Exchange Operations in Republic of Serbia allows an easier state monitoring of credit operations performed by non-professionals on foreign exchange market. By broadly defining the term “commercial credits“, the state (i.e. National Bank of Serbia) is given the authority to monitor the performance of all obligations under commercial contracts in which the obligations are not performed simultaneously. In the first part of the paper, the author analyses the economic gist of commercial credits with the purpose of giving an insight into their special treatment. The author examines the term „commercial credits“ given in Law on foreign exchange operations and the difference between financial credits and irregular commercial credits (exports and imports of goods and services deemed to be commercial credits) is particularly highlighted. In the second part, the author emphasizes the specifics of commercial credit contracts, especially the effects of special requests for the parties to these contracts to notify National Bank of Serbia and specific regulations regarding maturity of obligations under these commercial credits and the assignment and compensation of the said contracts.

Keywords: commercial credit, foreign exchange operations, commercial transactions, deferred payment, advance payment, (non) resident

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Authors: Hrvoje Simovic

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Paper analyses the key problems of fiscal sustainability in Croatia. To point out key challenges of fiscal sustainability, the public debt sustainability is analyzed using standard indicators of fiscal stability, accompanied with the identification of regime changes approach in the public debt trajectory using switching regression approach. The analysis is conducted for the period from 2001 to 2016. Results show huge vulnerability in recession period (2009-14), so key challenges in current fiscal policy and public debt management are recognized in maturity prolongation, interest rates trends, and credit rating expectations.

Keywords: fiscal sustainability, public debt, Croatia, budget deficit

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Authors: Guangyan Chen

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This study examined Chinese teachers’ perceptions of assessing U.S. college students’ L2 (second language) Chinese oral performances at different levels. Ten oral performances were videotaped from which three were chosen as samples to represent three different proficiency levels based on professionals’ judgments according to the ACTFL proficiency guidelines. The three samples were shown to L2 Chinese teachers who completed questionnaires about their assessments for each speech sample. In total, 104 L2 Chinese teachers responded to each of the three samples. The Exploratory Factor Analyses (EFA) of the teachers’ responses revealed three similar rating criteria patterns for assessing the three levels of oral performances. The teachers’ responses to Samples 2 and 3 revealed five rating criteria: Global proficiency, Chinese conceptual framework, content richness, communication appropriateness, and communication clarity. The teachers’ responses to Sample 1 revealed four rating criteria: global proficiency, Chinese conceptual framework, communication appropriateness/content richness, and communication clarity. However, the analyses of variance (ANOVAs) revealed that the proficiency levels of the three oral performances differed significantly across all rating criteria. Therefore, the data suggests that L2 classroom teachers could use the similar rating criteria pattern to assess college-level L2 Chinese students’ oral performances at different proficiency levels.

Keywords: language assessment, L2 Chinese, oral performance, rating criteria

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Authors: Tan Swee Liang

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This paper studies the two-way relationship between fintech credit and banking efficiency using the Generalized panel Method of Moment (GMM) estimation in structural equation modeling (SEM). Banking system efficiency, defined as its ability to produce the existing level of outputs with minimal inputs, is measured using input-oriented data envelopment analysis (DEA), where the whole banking system of an economy is treated as a single DMU. Banks are considered an intermediary between depositors and borrowers, utilizing inputs (deposits and overhead costs) to provide outputs (increase credits to the private sector and its earnings). Analysis of the interrelationship between fintech credit and bank efficiency is conducted to determine the impact in different country groupings (ASEAN, Asia and OECD), in particular the banking system response to fintech credit platforms. Our preliminary results show that banks do respond to the greater pressure caused by fintech platforms to enhance their efficiency, but differently across the different groups. The author’s earlier research on ASEAN-5 high bank overhead costs (as a share of total assets) as the determinant of economic growth suggests that expenses may not have been channeled efficiently to income-generating activities. One practical implication of the findings is that policymakers should enable alternative financing, such as fintech credit, as a warning or encouragement for banks to improve their efficiency.

Keywords: fintech lending, banking efficiency, data envelopment analysis, structural equation modeling

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Authors: Purevdolgor Luvsantseren, Ajnai Luvsan-Ish, Oyuntsetseg Sandag, Javzmaa Tsend, Akhit Tileubai, Baasandorj Chilhaasuren, Jargalbat Puntsagdash, Galbadrakh Chuluunbaatar

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One of the indicators of the quality of university services is student satisfaction. Aim: We aimed to study the level of satisfaction of students in the first year of premedical courses in the course of Medical Physics using the cluster method. Materials and Methods: In the framework of this goal, a questionnaire was collected from a total of 324 students who studied the medical physics course of the 1st course of the premedical course at the Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences. When determining the level of satisfaction, the answers were obtained on five levels of satisfaction: "excellent", "good", "medium", "bad" and "very bad". A total of 39 questionnaires were collected from students: 8 for course evaluation, 19 for teacher evaluation, and 12 for student evaluation. From the research, a database with 39 fields and 324 records was created. Results: In this database, cluster analysis was performed in MATLAB and R programs using the k-means method of data mining. Calculated the Hopkins statistic in the created database, the values are 0.88, 0.87, and 0.97. This shows that cluster analysis methods can be used. The course evaluation sub-fund is divided into three clusters. Among them, cluster I has 150 objects with a "good" rating of 46.2%, cluster II has 119 objects with a "medium" rating of 36.7%, and Cluster III has 54 objects with a "good" rating of 16.6%. The teacher evaluation sub-base into three clusters, there are 179 objects with a "good" rating of 55.2% in cluster II, 108 objects with an "average" rating of 33.3% in cluster III, and 36 objects with an "excellent" rating in cluster I of 11.1%. The sub-base of student evaluations is divided into two clusters: cluster II has 215 objects with an "excellent" rating of 66.3%, and cluster I has 108 objects with an "excellent" rating of 33.3%. Evaluating the resulting clusters with the Silhouette coefficient, 0.32 for the course evaluation cluster, 0.31 for the teacher evaluation cluster, and 0.30 for student evaluation show statistical significance. Conclusion: Finally, to conclude, cluster analysis in the model of the medical physics lesson “good” - 46.2%, “middle” - 36.7%, “bad” - 16.6%; 55.2% - “good”, 33.3% - “middle”, 11.1% - “bad” in the teacher evaluation model; 66.3% - “good” and 33.3% of “bad” in the student evaluation model.

Keywords: questionnaire, data mining, k-means method, silhouette coefficient

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Authors: Lia Marchi, Ernesto Antonini

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The impact of industrial sites on people’s living environment both involves detrimental effects on the ecosystem and perceptual-aesthetic interferences with the scenery. These, in turn, affect the economic and social value of the landscape, as well as the wellbeing of workers and local communities. Given the diffusion of the phenomenon and the relevance of its effects, it emerges the need for a joint approach to assess and thus mitigate the impact of factories on the landscape –being this latest assumed as the result of the action and interaction of natural and human factors. However, the impact assessment tools suitable for the purpose are quite heterogeneous and mostly monodisciplinary. On the one hand, green building rating systems (GBRSs) are increasingly used to evaluate the performance of manufacturing sites, mainly by quantitative indicators focused on environmental issues. On the other hand, methods to detect the visual and social impact of factories on the landscape are gradually emerging in the literature, but they generally adopt only qualitative gauges. The research addresses the integration of the environmental impact assessment and the perceptual-aesthetic interferences of factories on the landscape. The GBRSs model is assumed as a reference since it is adequate to simultaneously investigate different topics which affect sustainability, returning a global score. A critical analysis of GBRSs relevant to industrial facilities has led to select the U.S. GBC LEED protocol as the most suitable to the scope. A revision of LEED v4 Building Design+Construction has then been provided by including specific indicators to measure the interferences of manufacturing sites with the perceptual-aesthetic and social aspects of the territory. To this end, a new impact category was defined, namely ‘PA - Perceptual-aesthetic aspects’, comprising eight new credits which are specifically designed to assess how much the buildings are in harmony with their surroundings: these investigate, for example the morphological and chromatic harmonization of the facility with the scenery or the site receptiveness and attractiveness. The credits weighting table was consequently revised, according to the LEED points allocation system. As all LEED credits, each new PA credit is thoroughly described in a sheet setting its aim, requirements, and the available options to gauge the interference and get a score. Lastly, each credit is related to mitigation tactics, which are drawn from a catalogue of exemplary case studies, it also developed by the research. The result is a modified LEED scheme which includes compatibility with the landscape within the sustainability assessment of the industrial sites. The whole system consists of 10 evaluation categories, which contain in total 62 credits. Lastly, a test of the tool on an Italian factory was performed, allowing the comparison of three mitigation scenarios with increasing compatibility level. The study proposes a holistic and viable approach to the environmental impact assessment of factories by a tool which integrates the multiple involved aspects within a worldwide recognized rating protocol.

Keywords: environmental impact, GBRS, landscape, LEED, sustainable factory

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Authors: Chow Fah Yee, Eu Chye Tan

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The main purpose of developing a modern and sophisticated financial system is to mobilize and allocate the country’s resources for productive uses and in the process contribute to economic growth. Financial liberalization introduced in Malaysia in 1978 was said to be a step towards this goal. According to Mc-Kinnon and Shaw, the deregulation of a country’s financial system will create a more efficient and competitive market driven financial sector; with savings being channelled to the most productive users. This paper aims to assess whether financial liberalization resulted in bank credit being allocated to the more productive users, for the case of Malaysia by: firstly, using Chi-square test to if there exists a relationship between financial liberalization and bank lending in Malaysia. Secondly, to analyze on a comparative basis, the share of loans secured by 9 major economic sectors, using data on bank loans from 1975 to 2003. Lastly, present value analysis and rank correlation was used to determine if the recipients of bigger loans are the more efficient users. Chi-square test confirmed the generally observed trend of an increase in bank credit with the adoption of financial liberalization. While the comparative analysis of loans showed that the bulk of credit were allocated to service sectors, consumer loans and property related sectors, at the expense of industry. Results for rank correlation analysis showed that there is no relationship between the more productive users and amount of loans obtained. This implies that the recipients (sectors) that received more loans were not the more efficient sectors.

Keywords: allocation of resources, bank credit, financial liberalization, economics

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Authors: Minjuan Sun

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Ever since the late 1990s, China has experienced explosive growth in consumer lending, especially in short-term consumer loans, among which, the growth rate of non-bank lending has surpassed bank lending due to the development in financial technology. On the other hand, China does not have a universal credit scoring and registration system that can guide lenders during the processes of credit evaluation and risk control, for example, an individual’s bank credit records are not available for online lenders to see and vice versa. Given this context, the purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, we explore if and how alternative digital footprint data can be utilized to assess borrower’s creditworthiness. Then, we perform a comparative analysis of machine learning methods for the canonical problem of credit default prediction. Finally, we analyze, from an institutional point of view, the necessity of establishing a viable and nationally universal credit registration and scoring system utilizing online digital footprints, so that more people in China can have better access to the consumption loan market. Two different types of digital footprint data are utilized to match with bank’s loan default records. Each separately captures distinct dimensions of a person’s characteristics, such as his shopping patterns and certain aspects of his personality or inferred demographics revealed by social media features like profile image and nickname. We find both datasets can generate either acceptable or excellent prediction results, and different types of data tend to complement each other to get better performances. Typically, the traditional types of data banks normally use like income, occupation, and credit history, update over longer cycles, hence they can’t reflect more immediate changes, like the financial status changes caused by the business crisis; whereas digital footprints can update daily, weekly, or monthly, thus capable of providing a more comprehensive profile of the borrower’s credit capabilities and risks. From the empirical and quantitative examination, we believe digital footprints can become an alternative information source for creditworthiness assessment, because of their near-universal data coverage, and because they can by and large resolve the "thin-file" issue, due to the fact that digital footprints come in much larger volume and higher frequency.

Keywords: credit score, digital footprint, Fintech, machine learning

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Authors: Sandy J. M. Balla, Jerry J. Walker, Isaac K. Kyere

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The heat transfer coefficient at the soil–air interface is important in calculating underground cable ampacity when convection occurs. Calculating the heat transfer coefficient accurately is complex because of the temperature variations at the earth's surface. This paper presents the effect of convection heat flow across the ground surface on the rating of three single-core, 132kV, XLPE cables buried underground. The Finite element method (FEM) is a numerical analysis technique used to determine the cable rating of buried cables under installation conditions that are difficult to support when using the analytical method. This study demonstrates the use of FEM to investigate the effect of convection on the rating ofburied cables in flat formation using QuickField finite element simulation software. As a result, developing a model to simulate this type of situation necessitates important considerations such as the following boundary conditions: burial depth, soil thermal resistivity, and soil temperature, which play an important role in the simulation's accuracy and reliability. The results show that when the ground surface is taken as a convection interface, the conductor temperature rises and may exceed the maximum permissible temperature when rated current flows. This is because the ground surface acts as a convection interface between the soil and the air (fluid). This result correlates and is compared with the rating obtained using the IEC60287 analytical method, which is based on the condition that the ground surface is an isotherm.

Keywords: finite element method, convection, buried cables, steady-state rating

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Authors: Amrutha Venugopal, Rabee Rustum

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In spite of huge investments and the vital role infrastructure plays in the economy of UAE, the country has not yet developed an assessment scheme to measure the sustainability of infrastructure projects/development. The aim of this study was to develop a sustainability rating system for infrastructure projects in UAE using weighted indicator scoring. The identification of the list of 66 indicators was done by content analysis. The sources of content analysis were from government guidelines, research literature and sustainability rating system for infrastructure projects namely BCA Greenmark for Infrastructure (Singapore), ISCA (Australia) and Envision (USA). These indicators were shortlisted based on their relevance in the UAE. A mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methods is utilized to find the weightage to be applied to the indicators and to find suggestive measures to improve infrastructure sustainability in this region. Interviews and surveys were conducted with a good mix of experts from the industry. The data collected from the interviews were collated to provide suggestive measures for improving infrastructure sustainability. The collected survey data were analyzed using statistical analysis techniques to find the indicator weighing. The indicators were shortlisted by 75% to minimize the effort and investment into the process. The weighing of the deleted indicators was distributed among the critical clusters identified by Pareto analysis. Finally a simple Microsoft Excel tool was developed as the rating tool by using the calculated weighing for the indicators.

Keywords: infrastructure, rating system, suggestive measures, sustainability, UAE

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Authors: Mateusz Mokrogulski, Piotr Śliwka

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The aim of this paper is the identification of periods of excessive credit growth in the Polish banking sector in years 2007-2014 using different methodologies. Due to the lack of precise guidance in CRD IV regarding methods of calculating the credit gap and related deviations from the long-term trends, a few filtering methods are applied, e.g. Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King. The solutions based on the switching model are also proposed. The next step represent computations of both the credit gap, and the counter cyclical capital buffer (CCB) rates on a quarterly basis. The calculations are carried out for the entire banking sector in Poland, as well as for its components (commercial and co-operative banks), and different types of loans. The calculations show vividly that in the analysed period there were the times of excessive credit growth. However, the results are different for the above mentioned sub-sectors. Of paramount importance here are mortgage loans, where the outcomes are distorted by high exchange rate fluctuations. The research on the CCB is now going to gain popularity as the buffer will soon become one of the tools of the macro prudential policy under CRD IV. Although the presented method is focused on the Polish banking sector, it can also be applied to other member states. Especially to the Central and Eastern European countries, that are usually characterized by smaller banking sectors compared to EU-15.

Keywords: countercyclical capital buffer, CRD IV, filtering methods, mortgage loans

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Authors: M. Alsharqawi, T. Zayed, S. Abu Dabous

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To ensure safety and serviceability of bridge infrastructure, accurate condition assessment and rating methods are needed to provide basis for bridge Maintenance, Repair and Replacement (MRR) decisions. In North America, the common practices to assess condition of bridges are through visual inspection. These practices are limited to detect surface defects and external flaws. Further, the thresholds that define the severity of bridge deterioration are selected arbitrarily. The current research discusses the main deteriorations and defects identified during visual inspection and Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE). NDE techniques are becoming popular in augmenting the visual examination during inspection to detect subsurface defects. Quality inspection data and accurate condition assessment and rating are the basis for determining appropriate MRR decisions. Thus, in this paper, a novel method for bridge condition assessment using the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) theory is utilized. The QFD model is designed to provide an integrated condition by evaluating both the surface and subsurface defects for concrete bridges. Moreover, an integrated condition rating index with four thresholds is developed based on the QFD condition assessment model and using K-means clustering technique. Twenty case studies are analyzed by applying the QFD model and implementing the developed rating index. The results from the analyzed case studies show that the proposed threshold model produces robust MRR recommendations consistent with decisions and recommendations made by bridge managers on these projects. The proposed method is expected to advance the state of the art of bridges condition assessment and rating.

Keywords: concrete bridge decks, condition assessment and rating, quality function deployment, k-means clustering technique

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Authors: Chokri Slim

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The objective of this research is attempting to respond to this question: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and statistical learning models in predicting credit risk management? A Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was compared with neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and a Support vector regression (SVR). The population of this study includes 50 listed Banks in Tunis Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2000 to 2016. Firstly, we show the factors that have significant effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks in Tunisia. Secondly, it attempts to establish that the systematic use of objective techniques and methods designed to apprehend and assess risk when considering applications for granting credit, has a positive effect on the quality of loan portfolios of banks and their future collectability. Finally, we will try to show that the bank governance has an impact on the choice of methods and techniques for analyzing and measuring the risks inherent in the banking business, including the risk of non-repayment. The results of empirical tests confirm our claims.

Keywords: credit risk management, multiple linear regression, principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, support vector machines

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Authors: Olufunmilayo Folaranmi

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The study aimed at assessing the effectiveness of micro-credit scheme of (COWAD) in enhancing the living standard of women in selected local government areas of Oyo State. A survey research design was adopted for the study. A sample of 250 respondents was purposively selected for the study while a structured questionnaire tagged Effectiveness of Micro-Credit Scheme of Community Women and Development and Living Standards of Women Questionnaire (EMCSCWDQ) was designed to collect data for the study. Data collected was analyzed using frequency distribution, tables, percentages and chi-square statistics. Three hypotheses were tested for the study at 0.05 level of significance. Findings from the study indicated that loan provided by COWAD for women in selected local government areas towards improving their economic conditions has improved the living conditions of the women, promoted their general welfare, and reduced their poverty level. Findings also showed that some beneficiaries were not able to pay back, therefore reducing the effectiveness for future beneficiaries. Based on the findings, it was recommended that the providers of various micro-credit schemes of the state should design a convenient pattern of payment which will provide enough time for the beneficiaries of the loan to sell their goods or work for proper and timely payment. Also, the problem of collateral should be reviewed as the majority of women involved are poor. Other recommendations include replication of COWAD facilities in other NGOs as well as sustainability of the facility.

Keywords: micro-credit scheme, welfare, women, development, poverty

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine, Obidigbo Chizoba

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As a basic physiology need, the threat to sufficient food production is the threat to human survival. Food security has been an issue that has gained global concern. This paper looks at the food security in Nigeria by assessing the availability of food and accessibility of the available food. The paper employed multiple linear regression technique and graphic trends of growth rates of relevant variables to show the situation of food security in Nigeria. Results of the tests revealed that population growth rate was higher than the growth rate of food availability in Nigeria for the earlier period of the study. Commercial bank credit to the agricultural sector, foreign exchange utilization for food and the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) contributed significantly to food availability in Nigeria. Food prices grew at a faster rate than the average income level, making it difficult to access sufficient food. It implies that prior to the year 2012; there was insufficient food to feed the Nigerian populace. However, continued credit to the food and agricultural sector will ensure sustained and sufficient production of food in Nigeria. Microfinance banks should make sufficient credit available to the smallholder farmer. The government should further control and subsidize the rising price of food to make it more accessible by the people.

Keywords: food, accessibility, availability, security

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Authors: Julie Berame

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The study probed that out of eight (8) lessons in Science Six have been validated, lessons 1-3 got the descriptive rating of very satisfactory and lessons 4-8 got the descriptive rating of outstanding based on the content analysis of the prepared CBL lesson plans. The evaluation of the lesson plans focused on the three main features such as statements of the lesson objectives, lesson content, and organization and effectiveness. The study used developmental research procedure that contained three phases, namely: Development phase consists of determining the learning unit, lesson plans, creation of the table of specifications, exercises/quizzes, and revision of the materials; Evaluation phase consists of the development of experts’ assessment checklist, presentation of checklist to the adviser, comments and suggestions, and final validation of the materials; and try-out phase consists of identification of the subject, try-out of the materials using CBL strategy, administering science attitude questionnaire, and statistical analysis to obtain the data. The findings of the study revealed that the relevance and usability of CBL lessons 1 and 2 in terms of lesson objective, lesson content, and organization and effectiveness got the rating of very satisfactory (4.4) and lessons 3-8 got the rating of outstanding (4.7). The lessons 1-8 got the grand rating of outstanding (4.6). Additionally, results showed that CBL strategy helped foster positive attitude among students and achieved effectiveness in psychomotor learning objectives.

Keywords: development, validation, center-based learning, science

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Authors: M. Fathy, I. Maarouf, S. El-Sayary

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Our buildings are responsible for around 50% of energy consumption and most of this consumption because of spaces design, low heat isolation building material and occupant presence and behavior in buildings beside non-efficient architectural treatments. It has been shown to have large impact on heating, cooling and ventilation demand, energy consumption of lighting and appliances, and building controls. This paper aims to focus on passive treatments in Wakala Buildings in Cairo and how far it meets the LEED Criteria as the LEED – Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design – considered the widest spread rating system in the world. By studying Wakala buildings in Cairo, there are a lot of environmental potentials in it in the field of passive treatments and energy efficiency that could be found in examples by surveying and analyzing Wakala buildings. Besides the environmental treatments through the natural materials and façade architectural treatments, there is a measuring phase to declare the efficiency of the Wakala building through temperature decline between outdoor and indoor the Wakala building. Also, measuring how far the indoor conditions matched the thermal comfort for occupants. After measuring the Wakala buildings, it is the role of applying the criteria of LEED rating system to find out how fare Wakala buildings meet the LEED rating system criteria. After all, the building technologies used in Wakala buildings in the field of passive design and caused that energy efficiency would be clear and what is needed for Wakala buildings to have a LEED Certification.

Keywords: energy awareness, historical commercial buildings, LEED, Wakala buildings

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Authors: Caihong Sun, Xizi Zhang

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Rating prediction is an important problem for recommender systems. The task is to predict the rating for an item that a user would give. Most of the existing algorithms for the task ignore the effect of negative ratings rated by users on items, but the negative ratings have a significant impact on users’ purchasing decisions in practice. In this paper, we present a rating prediction algorithm based on factorization machines that consider the effect of negative ratings inspired by Loss Aversion theory. The aim of this paper is to develop a concave and a convex negative disgust function to evaluate the negative ratings respectively. Experiments are conducted on MovieLens dataset. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods by comparing with other four the state-of-the-art approaches. The negative ratings showed much importance in the accuracy of ratings predictions.

Keywords: factorization machines, feature engineering, negative ratings, recommendation systems

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Authors: S. J. Yune, S. Y. Lee, S. J. Im, B. S. Kam, S. Y. Baek

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This study aimed to determine the reliability of clinical performance assessments, having been emphasized by ability-based education, and professors overall assessment methods. We addressed the following problems: First, we try to find out whether there is a difference in what we consider to be the main variables affecting the clinical performance test according to the evaluator’s working period and the number of evaluation experience. Second, we examined the relationship among the global rating score (G), analytic global rating score (Gc), and the sum of the analytical checklists (C). What are the main factors affecting clinical performance assessments in relation to the numbers of times the evaluator had administered evaluations and the length of their working period service? What is the relationship between overall assessment score and analytic checklist score? How does analytic global rating with 6 components in OSCE and 4 components in sub-domains (Gc) CPX: aseptic practice, precision, systemic approach, proficiency, successfulness, and attitude overall assessment score and task-specific analytic checklist score sum (C) affect the professor’s overall global rating assessment score (G)? We studied 75 professors who attended a 2016 Bugyeoung Consortium clinical skills performances test evaluating third and fourth year medical students at the Pusan National University Medical school in South Korea (39 prof. in OSCE, 36 prof. in CPX; all consented to participate in our study). Each evaluator used 3 forms; a task-specific analytic checklist, subsequent analytic global rating scale with sub-6 domains, and overall global scale. After the evaluation, the professors responded to the questionnaire on the important factors of clinical performance assessment. The data were analyzed by frequency analysis, correlation analysis, and hierarchical regression analysis using SPSS 21.0. Their understanding of overall assessment was analyzed by dividing the subjects into groups based on experiences. As a result, they considered ‘precision’ most important in overall OSCE assessment, and ‘precise accuracy physical examination’, ‘systemic approaches to taking patient history’, and ‘diagnostic skill capability’ in overall CPX assessment. For OSCE, there was no clear difference of opinion about the main factors, but there was for CPX. Analytic global rating scale score, overall rating scale score, and analytic checklist score had meaningful mutual correlations. According to the regression analysis results, task-specific checklist score sum had the greatest effect on overall global rating. professors regarded task-specific analytic checklist total score sum as best reflecting overall OSCE test score, followed by aseptic practice, precision, systemic approach, proficiency, successfulness, and attitude on a subsequent analytic global rating scale. For CPX, subsequent analytic global rating scale score, overall global rating scale score, and task-specific checklist score had meaningful mutual correlations. These findings support explanations for validity of professors’ global rating in clinical performance assessment.

Keywords: global rating, clinical performance assessment, medical education, analytic checklist

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Authors: Ģirts Brasliņš, Ilja Arefjevs, Nadežda Tarakanova

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The objective of countercyclical capital buffer is to encourage banks to build up buffers in good times that can be drawn down in bad times. The aim of the report is to assess such decisions by banks derived from three approaches. The approaches are the aggregate credit-to-GDP ratio, credit growth as well as banking sector profits. The approaches are implemented for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for the time period 2000-2012. The report compares three approaches and analyses their relevance to the Baltic states by testing the correlation between a growth in studied variables and a growth of corresponding gaps. Methods used in the empirical part of the report are econometric analysis as well as economic analysis, development indicators, relative and absolute indicators and other methods. The research outcome is a cross-Baltic comparison of two alternative approaches to establish or release a countercyclical capital buffer by banks and their implications for each Baltic country.

Keywords: basel III, countercyclical capital buffer, banks, credit growth, baltic states

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Ginés Hernández-Cánovas, Mª Camino Ramón-Llorens, Johanna Koëter-Kant

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This paper uses a survey data-set of 837 Spanish SMEs to analyze the association between borrower discouragement and prior firm´s strategic decisions, while controlling for firm and owner characteristics. While existing literature has neglected factors limiting the demand for resources by an overreliance on arguments which attempt to explain the existence of discouraged borrowers solely in terms of lack of access to supply of credit. The objective of this paper is to show that factors limiting the demand for resources and, therefore, reducing the availability of funds, can be traced back to the firm manager´s decision. Our hypothesis is that managers that undertake strategic decisions seeking growth or improvement in their business performance participate more in the banking market than those showing contentment with their current business situation. Our results shows that SMEs that undertake an active role in research and development activities and that achieve improvements in the operating performance of their business are less likely to be discouraged from applying for a loan. Who needs credit and who applies for credit is important for firms, prospective lenders and policymakers interested in the financial health of these firms. Credit constrained firms are less likely to invest in R&D and to introduce new products, possibly harming long-term economic growth. Knowing how important borrower discouragement is in Europe, is important for judging the priority which should be attached to government policies aimed at reducing its effects. For example, policy makers could encourage the transparency about credit eligibility and conditions in order to reduce discouragement.

Keywords: discouragement, financial constraints, SMEs financing

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Authors: Y. Fandja, O. Colot, M. Croquet

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Small and medium-sized firms (SMEs) face difficulties in accessing bank credit. Bank credit is actually the main source of external financing for SMEs. In general, SMEs are risky businesses because of the potential opacity maintained by the leader in the management of affairs, the agency conflicts between business owners and third-party funders and the potential opportunism of the leader due to the incompleteness of the contracts. These elements accentuate the problems of information asymmetries between SMEs and bankers leading to capital rationing. Moreover, the last economic crisis reinforced this rationing of capital. However, a long-term relationship between SMEs and their bank would enable the latter to accumulate a set of relevant information allowing the reduction of information asymmetry and, consequently, the reduction of credit rationing. The objective of this research is to investigate the lived experience of SMEs loan officers in their relationships with their clients in order to understand how these relationships can affect the financing structure of these SMEs. To carry out this research, an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis is implemented. This approach is part of the constructivist paradigm and refers to the subjective narratives of the individual rather than to an objective description of the facts. The role of the researcher is to explore the lived experience of the interviewees and to try to understand the meaning they give to this experience. Currently, several sixty-minute semi-structured interviews with loan officers for SMEs have been conducted. The analysis of the content of these interviews brought out three main themes. First, the relationship between the credit officer and the company manager is complex because the credit officer is not aware of establishing a personal relationship with his client. Second; the emotional involvement in the bank financing decision is present and third, the trust in the relationship between the credit officer and his client is very important. The originality of this research is to use the interpretative phenomenological analysis more specific to psychology and sociology in order to approach in a different way the problem of the financing of SMEs through their particular relations with the bankers.

Keywords: financing structure, interpretative phenomenological analysis, relationship financing, SME

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Authors: Chowdhury Dilruba Shoma

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Gender is about equal rights that both males and females having access to responsibilities and opportunities in decision making is a fundamental human right. It is also a precondition for, and a mark of, sustainable people-oriented development. In Bangladesh, women have fewer opportunities than men do to access credit from banks and financial institutions. Entrenched patriarchal attitudes, unequal inheritance rights, and male-dominated hierarchies in the financial system, plus high interest rates and a lack of security/collateral, make it harder for women to obtain bank loans. Limited access to institutional credit is a serious restraint on the productivity and income of women entrepreneurs, (and the wider economy). These gender-biased and structural barriers inhibit women’s access to fundamental economic rights. Using a liberal feminist theoretical lens, this study provides some useful insights into the relationship between gender inequality and entrepreneurship, leading to a better understanding of women’s entrepreneurship development in Bangladesh. Recently, the Bangladesh Government, the United Nations Capital Development Fund, and Bangladesh Bank opened up the Women Entrepreneur Support Fund (WESF) ‒ Credit Guarantee Scheme (CGS) pilot project to cover collateral shortfalls for women entrepreneurs in the small and medium enterprise sector. The aim is to improve gender equality and advance women’s rights in relation to receiving credit. This article examines the challenges and prospects of the WESF-CGS, and suggests that implementation of measures in WESF-CGS policymaking, coupled with a combination of legislatory and regulatory reforms that implement the fundamental tenets of liberal feminism, can lead to a comprehensive and effective credit policy to boost women’s agency and economic empowerment. This may ultimately lead to more sustainable development in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Bangladesh, credit guarantee scheme, liberal feminist theory, women entrepreneur support fund

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Authors: Makduma Zahan Badhan, M. Abdul Matin

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A study has been undertaken to develop a fluvial stage-discharge rating curve for Jamuna River. Past Cross-sectional survey of Jamuna River reach within Sirajgonj and Tangail has been analyzed. The analysis includes the estimation of discharge carrying capacity, possible maximum scour depth and sediment transport capacity of the selected reaches. To predict the discharge and sediment carrying capacity, stream flow data which include cross-sectional area, top width, water surface slope and median diameter of the bed material of selected stations have been collected and some are calculated from reduced level data. A well-known resistance equation has been adopted and modified to a simple form in order to be used in the present analysis. The modified resistance equation has been used to calculate the mean velocity through the channel sections. In addition, a sediment transport equation has been applied for the prediction of transport capacity of the various sections. Results show that the existing drainage sections of Jamuna channel reach under study have adequate carrying capacity under existing bank-full conditions, but these reaches are subject to bed erosion even in low flow situations. Regarding sediment transport rate, it can be estimated that the channel flow has a relatively high range of bed material concentration. Finally, stage­ discharge curves for various sections have been developed. Based on stage-discharge rating data of various sections, water surface profile and sediment-rating curve of Jamuna River have been developed and also the flooding conditions have been analyzed from predicted water surface profile.

Keywords: discharge rating, flow profile, fluvial, sediment rating

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes

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The research was conducted to apply semiparametric SEM modeling to the timeliness of paying credit. Semiparametric SEM is structural modeling in which two combined approaches of parametric and nonparametric approaches are used. The analysis method in this research is semiparametric SEM with a nonparametric approach using a truncated spline. The data in the study were obtained through questionnaires distributed to Bank X mortgage debtors and are confidential. The study used 3 variables consisting of one exogenous variable, one intervening endogenous variable, and one endogenous variable. The results showed that (1) the effect of capacity and willingness to pay variables on timeliness of payment is significant, (2) modeling the capacity variable on willingness to pay also produces a significant estimate, (3) the effect of the capacity variable on the timeliness of payment variable is not influenced by the willingness to pay variable as an intervening variable, (4) the R^2 value of 0.763 or 76.33% indicates that the model has good predictive relevance.

Keywords: structural equation modeling semiparametric, credit bank, accuracy of payment time, willingness to pay

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Authors: Muhammad Hardyan Prastyanto, Aisah Azhari Marwangi, Yulinda Rizky Pratiwi

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Globalization has become a driving force for the current technological developments. The presence of the Virtual Space provides opportunities for people to self-actualization through access to a wider world, quickly and easily. Cities that are part of the existence of life, witness the history of civilization over time, also has been the major object to upgrading on technological sector. A smart city is one where the government and citizenry are using the best available means, including ICT, to achieve their shared goals. This often includes economic development, environmental sustainability, and improved quality of life for citizens. Thus theory is the basis for research of this study. This study aimed to know the implementation of the Urban Retrofitting at Malioboro area based on Information and Communication Technologies. The method of this study is by reviewing the effectiveness of the E-commerce uses as a major system to identification the Malioboro Smart Central Business District. By using a significance level of 5 %, it can be concluded that addresses have a significant influence on the ratings obtained, namely regarding the location of the hotel establishment. But despite the use of the website does not have a significant influence on the rating of the hotel, using the website still has influence significantly on the rating, because the p -value (Sig.) of the variable website is not so much different from the significance level determined by the researcher. In the interpretation, if a hotel is located on the Pasar Kembang streets and not to use the website, so the hotel is likely to have a rating of the constant value which is 3.183. However, if a hotel located on the Sosrowijayan streets, so the hotel rating will be increased by 0,302. Then if a hotel has been using a website, so the hotel rating will increase by 0,264. It is possible to conclude the effectiveness of ICT’s (Website) uses and location to identification the urban retrofitting through increasing of building rating in Malioboro Central Business District.

Keywords: urban retrofitting, e-commerce, information and communication technology, statistic regression, SCBD, Malioboro

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Authors: Petra Buzkova, Milos Kopa

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Reliability of the credit default swap market had been questioned repeatedly during the EMU debt crisis. The article examines whether this development influenced sovereign EMU CDS prices in general. We regress the CDS market price on a model risk neutral CDS price obtained from an adopted reduced form valuation model in the 2009-2013 period. We look for a break point in the single-equation and multi-equation econometric models in order to show the changes in relations between CDS market and model prices. Our results differ according to the risk profile of a country. We find that in the case of riskier countries, the relationship between the market and model price changed when market participants started to question the ability of CDS contracts to protect their buyers. Specifically, it weakened after the change. In the case of less risky countries, the change happened earlier and the effect of a weakened relationship is not observed.

Keywords: chow stability test, credit default swap, debt crisis, reduced form valuation model, seemingly unrelated regression

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

Abstract:

The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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