Search results for: innovation maturity models

Authors: Nor Anisa

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This paper aims to describe the use of conservation and rehabilitation of Mangrove forests as an alternative area in protecting the natural environment and ecosystems and ecology, community education and innovation of sustainable industrial development such as oil companies, gas and coal. The existence of globalization encourages energy needs such as gas, diesel and coal as an unaffected resource which is a basic need for human life while environmental degradation and natural phenomena continue to occur in Indonesia, especially global warming, sea water pollution, extinction of animal steps. The phenomenon or damage to nature in Indonesia is caused by a population explosion in Indonesia that causes unemployment, the land where the residence will disappear so that this will encourage the exploitation of nature and the environment. Therefore, Pertamina as a state-owned oil and gas company carries out its social responsibility efforts, namely to carry out conservation and rehabilitation and management of Mangrove fruit seeds which will provide an educational effect on the benefits of Mangrove seed maintenance. The method used in this study is a qualitative method and secondary data retrieval techniques where data is taken based on Pertamina activity journals and websites that can be accounted for. So the conclusion of this paper is: the benefits and function of conservation of mangrove forests in Indonesia physically, chemically, biologically and socially and economically and can provide innovation to the CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) of the company in continuing social responsibility in the scope of environmental conservation and social education.

Keywords: mangrove, environmental damage, conservation and rehabilitation, innovation of corporate social responsibility

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Marita Canina, Carmen Bruno

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Digital Do It Yourself (DIY) is a contemporary socio-technological phenomenon, enabled by technological tools. The nature and potential long-term effects of this phenomenon have been widely studied within the framework of the EU funded project ‘Digital Do It Yourself’, in which the authors have created and experimented a specific Digital Do It Yourself (DiDIY) co-design process. The phenomenon was first studied through a literature research to understand its multiple dimensions and complexity. Therefore, co-design workshops were used to investigate the phenomenon by involving people to achieve a complete understanding of the DiDIY practices and its enabling factors. These analyses allowed the definition of the DiDIY fundamental factors that were then translated into a design tool. The objective of the tool is to shape design concepts by transferring these factors into different environments to achieve innovation. The aim of this paper is to present the ‘DiDIY Factor Stimuli’ tool, describing the research path and the findings behind it.

Keywords: co-design process, digital DIY, innovation, toolkit

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Authors: Edmund M. Muthigani

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Background: Adequate, decent housing is a universal human right integral component. Resources’ costs and intensified rural-urban migration have increased the demand for affordable housing in urban areas. Modern knowledge-based economy uses innovation. The construction industry uses product and process innovation to provide adequate and decent low-cost housing. Kenya adopted innovation practices in slum upgrading that used cost-effectively locally available building materials. This study objectively looked at the outcomes, social and economic impacts of innovative housing technologies construction in the Mathare valley slums upgrading project. Methods: This post-occupancy study used an exploratory-descriptive research design. Random sampling was used to sample 384 users of low-cost housing projects in Mathare Valley, Nairobi County. Research instruments included semi-structured questionnaires and interview guides. Pilot study, validity and reliability tests ensured the quality of a study. Ethical considerations included university approval and consent. Statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) software version 21 was applied to compute the descriptive and inferential statistics. Findings: Slum-upgrading had a significant-positive outcome on improved houses and community. Social impacts included communal facilities, assurance of security of tenure, and retained frameworks of establishments. Economic impacts included employment; affordable and durable units (p values <0.05). The upgrading process didn’t influence rent fees, was corrupt and led to the displacement of residents. Conclusion: Slum upgrading process impacted positively. Similar projects should consider residents in decision-making.

Keywords: innovation, technologies, slum upgrading, Mathare valley slum, social impact, economic impact

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Authors: Rajneekant Bachan, Dhanush Vijay

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The visualization of operating systems has refined the Turing machine, and current trends suggest that the emulation of 32 bit architectures will soon emerge. After years of technical research into Web services, we demonstrate the synthesis of gigabit switches, which embodies the robust principles of theory. Loam, our new algorithm for forward-error correction, is the solution to all of these challenges.

Keywords: software engineering, architectures, introspective models, operating systems

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Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

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Risk management in banking sector is a key issue linked to financial system stability and its importance has been elevated by technological developments and emergence of new financial instruments. In this paper, we improve the model previously defined for quantifying internal control impact on banking risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA. For this, we defined three equations and a maturity coefficient to obtain a mathematical model which is tested on all banking processes and type of risks. The new model allows an optimal assessment of residual criticality and improves the correlation rate that has become 98%.

Keywords: risk, control, banking, FMECA, criticality

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Authors: Nuwan Kuruwitaarachchi, M. K. M. Peiris, C. N. Madawala, K. M. A. R. Perera, V. U. N Perera

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Dealing with businesses with the foreign market always took a special place in a country’s economy. Political and social factors came into play making currency rate changes fluctuate rapidly. Currency rate prediction has become an important factor for larger international businesses since large amounts of money exchanged between countries. This research focuses on comparing the accuracy of mainly three models; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Support Vector Machines(SVM). series of data import, export, USD currency exchange rate respect to LKR has been selected for training using above mentioned algorithms. After training the data set and comparing each algorithm, it was able to see that prediction in SVM performed better than other models. It was improved more by combining SVM and SVR models together.

Keywords: ARIMA, ANN, FFNN, RMSE, SVM, SVR

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Authors: Saji Varghese

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Naturally dried and fallen coconut leaves and found in abundance in India and other coconut growing regions of the world. These fallen coconut leaves are usually burnt by farmers in landfills and open kitchens, leading to CO2 and particulate emissions. The innovation of biodegradable drinking straws from naturally dried and fallen coconut leaves by this researcher and his team has opened up opportunities to create value out of this agri-waste leading to i. prevention of burning of these discarded leaves ii. income generating opportunities to women in rural areas of coconut growing regions iii. an alternative to single use plastic straws. The team has developed five special purpose machines, which are deployed in the three villages on a pilot basis where 36 women are employed. The women are trained in the use of these machines, and the straws which are in good demand are sold globally. The present paper analyses the prospective impact of this innovation on the incomes of women working at the straw production centres and the consequent impact on their standards of living, The paper also analyses the impact of this innovation in the reduction of CO2 and particulate emissions and makes a case for support from Govt and Non Govt organizations in coconut growing regions to set up straw production centres to boost rural circular economy and to reduce carbon footprint and eliminate plastic pollution

Keywords: drinking straws, coconut leaves, circular economy, sustainability

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Authors: Jefri Draup, Antoine Ambard, Chi-Toan Nguyen

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Zirconium alloys exhibit solid-state phase transformations under thermal loading. These can lead to a significant evolution of the microstructure and associated mechanical properties of materials used in nuclear fuel cladding structures. Therefore, the ability to capture effects of phase transformation on the material constitutive behavior is of interest during conditions of severe transient thermal loading. Whilst typical Avrami, or Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK), type models for phase transformations have been shown to have a good correlation with the behavior of Zircaloy-4 under constant heating rates, the effects of variable and fast heating rates are not fully explored. The present study utilises the results of in-situ high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction (SXRD) measurements in order to validate the phase transformation models for Zircaloy-4 under fast variable heating rates. These models are used to assess the performance of fuel cladding structures under loss of coolant accident (LOCA) scenarios. The results indicate that simple Avrami type models can provide a reasonable indication of the phase distribution in experimental test specimens under variable fast thermal loading. However, the accuracy of these models deteriorates under the faster heating regimes, i.e., 100Cs⁻¹. The studies highlight areas for improvement of simple Avrami type models, such as the inclusion of temperature rate dependence of the JMAK n-exponent.

Keywords: accident, fuel, modelling, zirconium

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Authors: Yong Bum Shin

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This case focuses on Weighted additive difference, Conjunctive, Disjunctive, and Elimination by aspects methodologies in consumer decision-making models and the Simple additive weighting (SAW) approach in the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) area. Most decision-making models illustrate that the rank reversal phenomenon is unpreventable. This paper presents that rank reversal occurs in popular managerial methods such as Weighted Additive Difference (WAD), Conjunctive Method, Disjunctive Method, Elimination by Aspects (EBA) and MCDM methods as well as such as the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) and finally Unified Commensurate Multiple (UCM) models which successfully addresses these rank reversal problems in most popular MCDM methods in decision-making area.

Keywords: multiple criteria decision making, rank inconsistency, unified commensurate multiple, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Kitti Supchukun, Kris Angkanaporn, Teerapong Yata

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The product innovation using a nutraceutical delivery system on improving the growth performance of broilers is the product planning and development to solve the antibiotics banning policy incurred in the local and global livestock production system. Restricting the use of antibiotics can reduce the quality of chicken meat and increase pathogenic bacterial contamination. Although other alternatives were used to replace antibiotics, the efficacy was inconsistent, reflecting on low chicken growth performance and contaminated products. The product innovation aims to effectively deliver the selected active ingredients into the body. This product is tested on the pharmaceutical lab scale and on the farm-scale for market feasibility in order to create product innovation using the nutraceutical delivery system model. The model establishes the product standardization and traceable quality control process for farmers. The study is performed using mixed methods. Starting with a qualitative method to find the farmers' (consumers) demands and the product standard, then the researcher used the quantitative research method to develop and conclude the findings regarding the acceptance of the technology and product performance. The survey has been sent to different organizations by random sampling among the entrepreneur’s population including integrated broiler farm, broiler farm, and other related organizations. The mixed-method results, both qualitative and quantitative, verify the user and lead users' demands since they provide information about the industry standard, technology preference, developing the right product according to the market, and solutions for the industry problems. The product innovation selected nutraceutical ingredients that can solve the following problems in livestock; bactericidal, anti-inflammation, gut health, antioxidant. The combinations of the selected nutraceutical and nanostructured lipid carriers (NLC) technology aim to improve chemical and pharmaceutical components by changing the structure of active ingredients into nanoparticle, which will be released in the targeted location with accurate concentration. The active ingredients in nanoparticle form are more stable, elicit antibacterial activity against pathogenic Salmonella spp and E.coli, balance gut health, have antioxidant and anti-inflammation activity. The experiment results have proven that the nutraceuticals have an antioxidant and antibacterial activity which also increases the average daily gain (ADG), reduces feed conversion ratio (FCR). The results also show a significant impact on the higher European Performance Index that can increase the farmers' profit when exporting. The product innovation will be tested in technology acceptance management methods from farmers and industry. The production of broiler and commercialization analyses are useful to reduce the importation of animal supplements. Most importantly, product innovation is protected by intellectual property.

Keywords: nutraceutical, nano structure lipid carrier, anti-microbial drug resistance, broiler, Salmonella

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan, Paul Rouse

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Organizational sustainability is important to both organizations themselves and their stakeholders. Despite its increasing popularity and increasing numbers of organizations reporting sustainability, research on evaluating and comparing the sustainability performance of companies is limited. The aim of this study was to develop models to measure sustainability performance for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons across companies in the same or different industries. A secondary aim was to see if sustainability reports can be used to evaluate sustainability performance. The study used both a content analysis of Australian sustainability reports in mining and metals and financial services for 2011-2014 and a survey of Australian and New Zealand organizations. Two methods ranging from a composite index using uniform weights to data envelopment analysis (DEA) were employed to analyze the data and develop the models. The results show strong statistically significant relationships between the developed models, which suggests that each model provides a consistent, systematic and reasonably robust analysis. The results of the models show that for both industries, companies that had sustainability scores above or below the industry average stayed almost the same during the study period. These indices and models can be used by companies to evaluate their sustainability performance and compare it with previous years, or with other companies in the same or different industries. These methods can also be used by various stakeholders and sustainability ranking companies such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI).

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, sustainability, sustainability performance measurement system, sustainability performance index, global reporting initiative

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Authors: Y. Baba, A. Archibong-Eso, H. Yeung

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Experimental study of high viscosity oil-gas flows in horizontal pipelines published in literature has indicated that hydrodynamic slug flow is the dominant flow pattern observed. Investigations have shown that hydrodynamic slugging brings about high instabilities in pressure that can damage production facilities thereby making it inherent to study high viscous slug flow regime so as to improve the understanding of its flow dynamics. Most slug flow models used in the petroleum industry for the design of pipelines together with their closure relationships were formulated based on observations of low viscosity liquid-gas flows. New experimental investigations and data are therefore required to validate these models. In cases where these models underperform, improving upon or building new predictive models and correlations will also depend on the new experimental dataset and further understanding of the flow dynamics in high viscous oil-gas flows. In this study conducted at the Flow laboratory, Oil and Gas Engineering Centre of Cranfield University, slug flow variables such as pressure gradient, mean liquid holdup, frequency and slug length for oil viscosity ranging from 1..0 – 5.5 Pa.s are experimentally investigated and analysed. The study was carried out in a 0.076m ID pipe, two fast sampling gamma densitometer and pressure transducers (differential and point) were used to obtain experimental measurements. Comparison of the measured slug flow parameters to the existing slug flow prediction models available in the literature showed disagreement with high viscosity experimental data thus highlighting the importance of building new predictive models and correlations.

Keywords: gamma densitometer, mean liquid holdup, pressure gradient, slug frequency and slug length

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Authors: Davendra Singh Malik

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India is one of the mega-biodiversity countries in the world and contributing about 11.72% of global fish diversity. The Yamuna river is the longest tributary of Ganga river ecosystem, providing a natural habitat for existing fish diversity of Himalayan region of Indian subcontinent. The several hydropower dams and barrages have been constructed on different locations of major rivers in Garhwal region. These dams have caused a major ecological threat to change existing fresh water ecosystems altering water flows, interrupting ecological connectivity, fragmenting habitats and native riverine fish species. Mahseer fishes (Indian carp) of the genus Tor, are large cyprinids endemic to continental Asia popularly known as ‘Game or sport fishes’ have continued to be decimated by fragmented natural habitats due to damming the water flow in riverine system and categorized as threatened fishes of India. The fresh water fish diversity as 24 fish species were recorded from Yamuna river. The present fish catch data has revealed that mahseer fishes (Tor tor and Tor putitora) were contributed about 32.5 %, 25.6 % and 18.2 % in upper, middle and lower riverine stretches of Yaumna river. The length range of mahseer (360-450mm) recorded as dominant size of catch composition. The CPUE (catch per unit effort) of mahseer fishes also indicated about a sharp decline of fish biomass, changing growth pattern, sex ratio and maturity stages of fishes. Only 12.5 – 14.8 % mahseer female brooders have showed only maturity phases in breeding months. The fecundity of mature mahseer female fish brooders ranged from 2500-4500 no. of ova during breeding months. The present status of mahseer fishery has attributed to the over exploitative nature in Yamuna river. The mahseer population is shrinking continuously in down streams of Yamuna river due to cumulative effects of various ecological stress. Mahseer conservation programme have implemented as 'in situ fish conservation' for enhancement of viable population size of mahseer species and restore the genetic loss of mahseer fish germplasm in Yamuna river of Garhwal Himalayan region.

Keywords: conservation practice, population dynamics, tor fish species, Yamuna River

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Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

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Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

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Authors: Tomola Obamuyi

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The banking system in Nigeria adopted innovative banking, with the aim of enhancing financial inclusion, and making financial services readily and cheaply available to majority of the people, and to contribute to the efficiency of the financial system. Some of the innovative services include: Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs), National Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT), Point of Sale (PoS), internet (Web) banking, Mobile Money payment (MMO), Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS), agent banking, among others. The introduction of these payment systems is expected to increase bank efficiency and customers' satisfaction, culminating in better performance for the commercial banks. However, opinions differ on the possible effects of the various innovative payment systems on the performance of commercial banks in the country. Thus, this study empirically determines how commercial banks use innovation to gain competitive advantage in the specific context of Nigeria's finance and business. The study also analyses the effects of financial innovation on the performance of commercial banks, when different periods of analysis are considered. The study employed secondary data from 2009 to 2018, the period that witnessed aggressive innovation in the financial sector of the country. The Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique forecasts the relative variance of each random innovation to the variables in the VAR, examine the effect of standard deviation shock to one of the innovations on current and future values of the impulse response and determine the causal relationship between the variables (VAR granger causality test). The study also employed the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to rank the innovations and the performance criteria of Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). The entropy method of MCDM was used to determine which of the performance criteria better reflect the contributions of the various innovations in the banking sector. On the other hand, the Range of Values (ROV) method was used to rank the contributions of the seven innovations to performance. The analysis was done based on medium term (five years) and long run (ten years) of innovations in the sector. The impulse response function derived from the VAR system indicated that the response of ROA to the values of cheques transaction, values of NEFT transactions, values of POS transactions was positive and significant in the periods of analysis. The paper also confirmed with entropy and range of value that, in the long run, both the CHEQUE and MMO performed best while NEFT was next in performance. The paper concluded that commercial banks would enhance their performance by continuously improving on the services provided through Cheques, National Electronic Fund Transfer and Point of Sale since these instruments have long run effects on their performance. This will increase the confidence of the populace and encourage more usage/patronage of these services. The banking sector will in turn experience better performance which will improve the economy of the country. Keywords: Bank performance, financial innovation, multi-criteria decision making, vector autoregression,

Keywords: Bank performance, financial innovation, multi-criteria decision making, vector autoregression

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Authors: Viriyavudh Sim, WooYoung Jung

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Damage due to high wind is not limited to load resistance components such as beam and column. The majority of damage is due to breach in the building envelope such as broken roof, window, and door. In this paper, wind fragility of window glass in residential apartment was determined to compare the difference between two window configuration models. Monte Carlo Simulation method had been used to derive damage data and analytical fragilities were constructed. Fragility of window system showed that window located in leeward wall had higher probability of failure, especially those close to the edge of structure. Between the two window models, Model 2 had higher probability of failure, this was due to the number of panel in this configuration.

Keywords: wind fragility, glass window, high rise building, wind disaster

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Authors: Rolandas Strazdas, Jurate Cerneviciute

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Creative industries are defined as those industries which produce tangible or intangible artistic and creative output and have a potential for income generation by exploitingcultural assets and producing knowledge-based goods and services (both traditional and contemporary). With the emergence of an entire sector of creative industriestriggered by the development of creative products managingcreativity-based business processes becomes a critical issue. Diverse managerial practices and models on effective management of creativity have beenexamined in scholarly literature. Even thoughthese studies suggest how creativity in organisations can be nourished, they do not sufficiently relate the proposed practices to the underlying business processes. The article analyses a range of business process improvement methods such as PDCA, DMAIC, DMADV and TOC. The strengths and weaknesses of these methods aimed to improvethe innovation development process are identified. Based on the analysis of the existing improvement methods, a continuous improvement model was developed and presented in the article.

Keywords: continuous improvement, creative industries, improvement model, process mapping

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Authors: Flora Babongo, Valerie Chavez

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Inferring causality from observational data is one of the fundamental subjects, especially in quantitative finance. So far most of the papers analyze additive noise models with either linearity, nonlinearity or Gaussian noise. We fill in the gap by providing a nonlinear and non-gaussian causal multiplicative noise model that aims to distinguish the cause from the effect using a two steps method based on Bayesian additive models for location, scale and shape (BAMLSS) and on causal additive models (CAM). We have tested our method on simulated and real data and we reached an accuracy of 0.86 on average. As real data, we considered the causality between financial indices such as S&P 500, Nasdaq, CAC 40 and Nikkei, and companies' log-returns. Our results can be useful in inferring causality when the data is heteroskedastic or non-injective.

Keywords: causal inference, DAGs, BAMLSS, financial index

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Authors: Jamil Ahmed

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Access control models aim to decide whether a user should be denied or granted access to the user‟s requested activity. Various access control models have been established and proposed. The most prominent of these models include role-based, attribute-based, policy based access control models as well as role-centric attribute based access control model. In this paper, a novel access control model is presented called “Role centric Attribute based Policy Driven Access Control (RAPDAC) model”. RAPDAC incorporates the concept of “policy” in the “role centric attribute based access control model”. It leverages the concept of "policy‟ by precisely combining the evaluation of conditions, attributes, permissions and roles in order to allow authorization access. This approach allows capturing the "access control policy‟ of a real time application in a well defined manner. RAPDAC model allows making access decision at much finer granularity as illustrated by the case study of a real time library information system.

Keywords: authorization, access control model, role based access control, attribute based access control

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Everard van Kemenade

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Many quality improvement activities are planned. Leaders are strongly involved in missions, visions and strategic planning. They use, consciously or unconsciously, the PDCA-cycle, also know as the Deming cycle. After the planning, the plans are carried out and the results or effects are measured. If the results show that the goals in the plan have not been achieved, adjustments are made in the next plan or in the execution of the processes. Then, the cycle is run through again. Traditionally, the PDCA-cycle is advocated as a means to an end. However, PDCA is especially fit for planned, ordered, certain contexts. It fits with the empirical and referential quality paradigm. For uncertain, unordered, unplanned processes, something else might be needed instead of Plan-Do-Check-Act. Due to the complexity of our society, the influence of the context, and the uncertainty in our world nowadays, not every activity can be planned anymore. At the same time organisations need to be more innovative than ever. That provides leaders with ‘wicked tendencies’. However, that raises the question how one can innovate without being able to plan? Complexity science studies the interactions of a diverse group of agents that bring about change in times of uncertainty, e.g. when radical innovation is co-created. This process is called emergence. This research study explores the role of leadership in the emergence paradigm. Aim of the article is to study the way that leadership can support the emergence of innovation in a complex context. First, clarity is given on the concepts used in the research question: complexity, emergence, innovation and leadership. Thereafter a literature search is conducted to answer the research question. The topics ‘emergent leadership’ or ‘complexity leadership’ are chosen for an exploratory search in Google and Google Scholar using the berry picking method. Exclusion criterion is emergence in other disciplines than organizational development or in the meaning of ‘arising’. The literature search conducted gave 45 hits. Twenty-seven articles were excluded after reading the title and abstract because they did not research the topic of emergent leadership and complexity. After reading the remaining articles as a whole one more was excluded because the article used emergent in the limited meaning of ‗arising‘ and eight more were excluded because the topic did not match the research question of this article. That brings the total of the search to 17 articles. The useful conclusions from the articles are merged and grouped together under overarching topics, using thematic analysis. The findings are that 5 topics prevail when looking at possibilities for leadership to facilitate innovation: enabling, sharing values, dreaming, interacting, context sensitivity and adaptivity. Together they form In Dutch the acronym Medusa.

Keywords: complexity science, emergence, leadership in the emergence paradigm, innovation, the Medusa principles

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Authors: Osayande Pascal Omondiagbe, Sherlock a Licorish

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Stack Overflow is a popular community question and answer portal which is used by practitioners to solve technology-related challenges during software development. Previous studies have shown that this forum is becoming a substitute for official software programming languages documentation. While tools have looked to aid developers by presenting interfaces to explore Stack Overflow, developers often face challenges searching through many possible answers to their questions, and this extends the development time. To this end, researchers have provided ways of predicting acceptable Stack Overflow answers by using various modeling techniques. However, less interest is dedicated to examining the performance and quality of typically used modeling methods, and especially in relation to models’ and features’ complexity. Such insights could be of practical significance to the many practitioners that use Stack Overflow. This study examines the performance and quality of various modeling methods that are used for predicting acceptable answers on Stack Overflow, drawn from 2014, 2015 and 2016. Our findings reveal significant differences in models’ performance and quality given the type of features and complexity of models used. Researchers examining classifiers’ performance and quality and features’ complexity may leverage these findings in selecting suitable techniques when developing prediction models.

Keywords: feature selection, modeling and prediction, neural network, random forest, stack overflow

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Authors: Ziwei Xu

Abstract:

The increasing emphasis on mobility has driven the application of innovative communication technologies across various industries. In the retail sector, Near Field Communication (NFC) has emerged as a significant and transformative technology, particularly in the payment and retail supermarket sectors. NFC enables new payment methods, such as electronic wallets, and enhances information management in supermarkets, contributing to the growth of the trade. This report presents a comprehensive analysis of NFC technology, focusing on five key aspects. Firstly, it provides an overview of NFC, including its application methods and development history. Additionally, it incorporates Arthur's work on combinatorial evolution to elucidate the emergence and impact of NFC technology, while acknowledging the limitations of the model in analyzing NFC. The report then summarizes the positive influence of NFC on the retail industry along with its associated constraints. Furthermore, it explores the adoption of NFC from both organizational and individual perspectives, employing the Best Predictors of organizational IT adoption and UTAUT2 models, respectively. Finally, the report discusses the potential future replacement of NFC with biometrics technology, highlighting its advantages over NFC and leveraging Arthur's model to investigate its future development prospects.

Keywords: innovation, NFC, industry, biometrics

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Authors: Nieto Bernal Wilson, Carmona Suarez Edgar

Abstract:

The organizations have structured and unstructured information in different formats, sources, and systems. Part of these come from ERP under OLTP processing that support the information system, however these organizations in OLAP processing level, presented some deficiencies, part of this problematic lies in that does not exist interesting into extract knowledge from their data sources, as also the absence of operational capabilities to tackle with these kind of projects.  Data Warehouse and its applications are considered as non-proprietary tools, which are of great interest to business intelligence, since they are repositories basis for creating models or patterns (behavior of customers, suppliers, products, social networks and genomics) and facilitate corporate decision making and research. The following paper present a structured methodology, simple, inspired from the agile development models as Scrum, XP and AUP. Also the models object relational, spatial data models, and the base line of data modeling under UML and Big data, from this way sought to deliver an agile methodology for the developing of data warehouses, simple and of easy application. The methodology naturally take into account the application of process for the respectively information analysis, visualization and data mining, particularly for patterns generation and derived models from the objects facts structured.

Keywords: data warehouse, model data, big data, object fact, object relational fact, process developed data warehouse

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Authors: Sudipta Ghorai, Ossama Salem

Abstract:

Pavement maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MRR) processes may have considerable environmental impacts due to traffic disruptions associated with work zones. The simulation models in use to predict the emission of work zones were mostly static emission factor models (SEFD). SEFD calculates emissions based on average operation conditions e.g. average speed and type of vehicles. Although these models produce accurate results for large-scale planning studies, they are not suitable for analyzing driving conditions at the micro level such as acceleration, deceleration, idling, cruising, and queuing in a work zone. The purpose of this study is to prepare a comprehensive work zone environmental assessment (WEA) framework to calculate the emissions caused due to disrupted traffic; by integrating traffic microsimulation tools with emission models. This will help highway officials to assess the benefits of accelerated construction and opt for the most suitable TMP not only economically but also from an environmental point of view.

Keywords: accelerated construction, pavement MRR, traffic microsimulation, congestion, emissions

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Authors: Min Kyung An

Abstract:

In Wireless Sensor Networks which consist of tiny wireless sensor nodes with limited battery power, one of the most fundamental applications is data aggregation which collects nearby environmental conditions and aggregates the data to a designated destination, called a sink node. Important issues concerning the data aggregation are time efficiency and energy consumption due to its limited energy, and therefore, the related problem, named Minimum Latency Aggregation Scheduling (MLAS), has been the focus of many researchers. Its objective is to compute the minimum latency schedule, that is, to compute a schedule with the minimum number of timeslots, such that the sink node can receive the aggregated data from all the other nodes without any collision or interference. For the problem, the two interference models, the graph model and the more realistic physical interference model known as Signal-to-Interference-Noise-Ratio (SINR), have been adopted with different power models, uniform-power and non-uniform power (with power control or without power control), and different antenna models, omni-directional antenna and directional antenna models. In this survey article, as the problem has proven to be NP-hard, we present and compare several state-of-the-art approximation algorithms in various models on the basis of latency as its performance measure.

Keywords: data aggregation, convergecast, gathering, approximation, interference, omni-directional, directional

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Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

Abstract:

Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: Vivek Anand, Rainer Naegele

Abstract:

Industry 4.0 is a global mega-trend revolutionizing the world of advanced manufacturing, but also bringing up challenges for SMEs. In response, many regional, as well as digital Industry 4.0 Platforms, have been set up to boost the competencies of established enterprises as well as SMEs. The concept of 'Clusters' is a policy tool that aims to be a starting point to establish sustainable and self-supporting structures in industries of a region by identifying competencies and supporting cluster actors with services that match their growth needs. This paper is motivated by the idea that Clusters have the potential to enable firms, particularly SMEs, to accelerate the innovation process and transition to digital technologies. In this research, the efficacy of Industry 4.0 platforms as Cluster ecosystems is evaluated, especially for SMEs. Focusing on the Baden Wurttemberg region in Germany, an action research method is employed to study how SMEs leverage other actors on Industry 4.0 Platforms to further their Industry 4.0 journeys. The aim is to evaluate how such Industry 4.0 platforms stimulate innovation, cooperation and competitiveness. Additionally, the barriers to these platforms fulfilling their promise to serve as capacity building cluster ecosystems for SMEs in a region will also be identified. The findings will be helpful for academicians and policymakers alike, who can leverage a ‘cluster policy’ to enable Industry 4.0 ecosystems in their regions. Furthermore, relevant management and policy implications stem from the analysis. This will also be of interest to the various players in a cluster ecosystem - like SMEs and service providers - who benefit from the cooperation and competition. The paper will improve the understanding of how a dialogue orientation, a bottom-up approach and active integration of all involved cluster actors enhance the potential of Industry 4.0 Platforms. A strong collaborative culture is a key driver of digital transformation and technology adoption across sectors, value chains and supply chains; and will position Industry 4.0 Platforms at the forefront of the industrial renaissance. Motivated by this argument and based on the results of the qualitative research, a roadmap will be proposed to position Industry 4.0 Platforms as effective clusters ecosystems to support Industry 4.0 adoption in a region.

Keywords: cluster policy, digital transformation, industry 4.0, innovation clusters, innovation policy, SMEs and startups

Procedia PDF Downloads 212