Search results for: autoregressive integrate moving average model selection

Authors: Jac J. W. Andrews, James B. Hale

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Effective practicing psychologists require ongoing skill development that is constructivist and recursive in nature, with mentor, colleague, co-worker, and patient feedback critical to successful acquisition and maintenance of professional competencies. This paper will provide an overview of the nature and scope of psychologist skill development through multisource feedback (MSF) or 360 degree evaluation, present a rationale for its use for assessing practicing psychologist performance, and advocate its use in psychology given the demonstrated model utility in other health professions. The paper will conclude that an international research design is needed to assess the feasibility, reliability, and validity of MSF system ratings intended to solicit feedback from mentors, colleagues, coworkers, and patients about psychologist competencies. If adopted, the MSF model could lead to enhanced skill development that fosters patient satisfaction within and across countries.

Keywords: psychologist, multisource feedback, psychologist competency, professionalism

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Sina Keyhanian, Abbas Ahmadi, Behrooz Karimi

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We present a multi-objective binary programming model which considers surgical cases are scheduling among operating rooms and the configuration of surgical instruments in limited capacity hospital trays, simultaneously. Many mathematical models have been developed previously in the literature addressing different challenges in health-care logistics such as assigning operating rooms, leveling beds, etc. But what happens inside the operating rooms along with the inventory management of required instruments for various operations, and also their integration with surgical scheduling have been poorly discussed. Our model considers the minimization of movements between trays during a surgery which recalls the famous cell formation problem in group technology. This assumption can also provide a major potential contribution to robotic surgeries. The tray configuration problem which consumes surgical instruments requirement plan (SIRP) and sequence of surgical procedures based on required instruments (SIRO) is nested inside the bin packing problem. This modeling approach helps us understand that most of the same-output solutions will not be necessarily identical when it comes to the rearrangement of surgeries among rooms. A numerical example has been dealt with via a proposed nested simulated annealing (SA) optimization approach which provides insights about how various configurations inside a solution can alter the optimal condition.

Keywords: health-care logistics, hospital tray configuration, off-line bin packing, simulated annealing optimization, surgical case scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 262

Authors: Jackeline Kafie-Martinez, Peter B. Keating

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A three-dimensional finite element model is developed to capture the stress field generated in connected plates during the installation of hot-driven rivets. Clamping stress is generated when a steel rivet heated to approximately 1000 °C comes in contact with the material to be fastened at ambient temperature. As the rivet cools, thermal contraction subjects the rivet into tensile stress, while the material being fastened is subjected to compressive stress. Model characteristics and assumptions, as well as steel properties variation with respect to temperature are discussed. The thermal stresses developed around the rivet hole are assessed and reported. Results from the analysis are utilized to detect possible regions for fatigue crack propagation under cyclic loads.

Keywords: clamping stress, fatigue, finite elements, rivet, riveted railroad bridges

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Y. Trantafyllou, C. Alexandraki

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Music interpretation accounts to the way musicians shape their performance by deliberately deviating from composers’ intentions, which are commonly communicated via some form of music transcription, such as a music score. For transcribed and non-improvised music, music expression is manifested by introducing subtle deviations in tempo, dynamics and articulation during the evolution of performance. This paper presents an application, named FlameCens, which, given two recordings of the same piece of music, presumably performed by different musicians, allow visualising deviations in tempo and dynamics during playback. The application may also compare a certain performance to the music score of that piece (i.e. MIDI file), which may be thought of as an expression-neutral representation of that piece, hence depicting the expressive queues employed by certain performers. FlameCens uses the Dynamic Time Warping algorithm to compare two audio sequences, based on CENS (Chroma Energy distribution Normalized Statistics) audio features. Expressive deviations are illustrated in a moving flame, which is generated by an animation of particles. The length of the flame is mapped to deviations in dynamics, while the slope of the flame is mapped to tempo deviations so that faster tempo changes the slope to the right and slower tempo changes the slope to the left. Constant slope signifies no tempo deviation. The detected deviations in tempo and dynamics can be additionally recorded in a text file, which allows for offline investigation. Moreover, in the case of monophonic music, the color of particles is used to convey the pitch of the notes during performance. FlameCens has been implemented in Python and it is openly available via GitHub. The application has been experimentally validated for different music genres including classical, contemporary, jazz and popular music. These experiments revealed that FlameCens can be a valuable tool for music specialists (i.e. musicians or musicologists) to investigate the expressive performance strategies employed by different musicians, as well as for music audience to enhance their listening experience.

Keywords: audio synchronization, computational music analysis, expressive music performance, information visualization

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Sriram Kashyap Prasad, Ionut Florescu

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This study models the intraday asset prices as driven by Markov process. This work identifies the latent states of the Hidden Markov model, using limit order book data (trades and quotes) to continuously estimate the states throughout the day. This work builds a trading strategy using estimated states to generate signals. The strategy utilizes current state to recalibrate buy/ sell levels and the transition between states to trigger stop-loss when adverse price movements occur. The proposed trading strategy is tested on the Stevens High Frequency Trading (SHIFT) platform. SHIFT is a highly realistic market simulator with functionalities for creating an artificial market simulation by deploying agents, trading strategies, distributing initial wealth, etc. In the implementation several assets on the NASDAQ exchange are used for testing. In comparison to a strategy with static buy/ sell levels, this study shows that the number of limit orders that get matched and executed can be increased. Executing limit orders earns rebates on NASDAQ. The system can capture jumps in the limit order book prices, provide dynamic buy/sell levels and trigger stop loss signals to improve the PnL (Profit and Loss) performance of the strategy.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, Hidden Markov model, high frequency trading, limit order book learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab, Hanan Farag

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Cost minimization of Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem becomes a critical issue in the field of transportation because it is NP-hard optimization problem and the search space is complex. Many researches use the hybridization of artificial intelligence (AI) models to solve this problem; however, it can not guarantee to reach the best solution due to the difficulty of searching the whole search space. To overcome this problem, we introduce the hybrid model of Discrete Particle Swarm Optimization (DPSO) with a passive congregation which enable searching the whole search space to compromise between both local and global search. The practical experiment shows that our model obviously outperforms other hybrid models in cost minimization.

Keywords: cost minimization, multi-vehicle routing problem, passive congregation, discrete swarm, passive congregation

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Arindam Chaudhuri

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Classification of data has been actively used for most effective and efficient means of conveying knowledge and information to users. The prima face has always been upon techniques for extracting useful knowledge from data such that returns are maximized. With emergence of huge datasets the existing classification techniques often fail to produce desirable results. The challenge lies in analyzing and understanding characteristics of massive data sets by retrieving useful geometric and statistical patterns. We propose a supervised parallel fuzzy rough support vector machine (PFRSVM) for data classification in cloud environment. The classification is performed by PFRSVM using hyperbolic tangent kernel. The fuzzy rough set model takes care of sensitiveness of noisy samples and handles impreciseness in training samples bringing robustness to results. The membership function is function of center and radius of each class in feature space and is represented with kernel. It plays an important role towards sampling the decision surface. The success of PFRSVM is governed by choosing appropriate parameter values. The training samples are either linear or nonlinear separable. The different input points make unique contributions to decision surface. The algorithm is parallelized with a view to reduce training times. The system is built on support vector machine library using Hadoop implementation of MapReduce. The algorithm is tested on large data sets to check its feasibility and convergence. The performance of classifier is also assessed in terms of number of support vectors. The challenges encountered towards implementing big data classification in machine learning frameworks are also discussed. The experiments are done on the cloud environment available at University of Technology and Management, India. The results are illustrated for Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The effect of variability in prediction and generalization of PFRSVM is examined with respect to values of parameter C. It effectively resolves outliers’ effects, imbalance and overlapping class problems, normalizes to unseen data and relaxes dependency between features and labels. The average classification accuracy for PFRSVM is better than other classifiers for both Gaussian RBF and Bayesian kernels. The experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets clearly demonstrate the superiority of the proposed technique.

Keywords: FRSVM, Hadoop, MapReduce, PFRSVM

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Authors: Benson Ade Eniola Afere

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Over the years, kernel density estimation has been extensively studied within the context of nonparametric density estimation. The fundamental components of kernel density estimation are the kernel function and the bandwidth. While the mathematical exploration of the kernel component has been relatively limited, its selection and development remain crucial. The Mean Integrated Squared Error (MISE), serving as a measure of discrepancy, provides a robust framework for assessing the effectiveness of any kernel function. A kernel function with a lower MISE is generally considered to perform better than one with a higher MISE. Hence, the primary aim of this article is to create kernels that exhibit significantly reduced MISE when compared to existing classical kernels. Consequently, this article introduces a cluster of hybrid polynomial kernel families. The construction of these proposed kernel functions is carried out heuristically by combining two kernels from the classical polynomial kernel family using probability axioms. We delve into the analysis of error propagation within these kernels. To assess their performance, simulation experiments, and real-life datasets are employed. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid kernels surpass their classical kernel counterparts in terms of performance.

Keywords: classical polynomial kernels, cluster of families, global error, hybrid Kernels, Kernel density estimation, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: P. Kooche Baghy, S. Eskandari, E.javanmard

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Neural network has been used as a predictive means of cold rolling force in this dissertation. Thus, imposed average force on rollers as a mere input and five pertaining parameters to its as a outputs are regarded. According to our study, feed-forward multilayer perceptron network has been selected. Besides, Bayesian algorithm based on the feed-forward back propagation method has been selected due to noisy data. Further, 470 out of 585 all tests were used for network learning and others (115 tests) were considered as assessment criteria. Eventually, by 30 times running the MATLAB software, mean error was obtained 3.84 percent as a criteria of network learning. As a consequence, this the mentioned error on par with other approaches such as numerical and empirical methods is acceptable admittedly.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Bayesian, cold rolling, force evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Joseph Salim

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This paper proposes the development of a supervised machine learning system to predict the consequences of untreated bruxism (teeth grinding) on gingival (gum) recession and jaw pain (most often bilateral jaw pain with possible headaches and limited ability to open the mouth). As a general dentist in a multi-specialty practice, the author has encountered many patients suffering from these issues due to uncontrolled bruxism (teeth grinding) at night. The most effective treatment for managing this problem involves wearing a nightguard during sleep and receiving therapeutic Botox injections to relax the muscles (the masseter muscle) responsible for grinding. However, some patients choose to postpone these treatments, leading to potentially irreversible and costlier consequences in the future. The proposed machine learning model aims to track patients who forgo the recommended treatments and assess the percentage of individuals who will experience worsening jaw pain, gingival (gum) recession, or both within a 3-to-5-year timeframe. By accurately predicting these outcomes, the model seeks to motivate patients to address the root cause proactively, ultimately saving time and pain while improving quality of life and avoiding much costlier treatments such as full-mouth rehabilitation to help recover the loss of vertical dimension of occlusion due to shortened clinical crowns because of bruxism, gingival grafts, etc.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, predictive insights, bruxism, teeth grinding, therapeutic botox, nightguard, gingival recession, gum recession, jaw pain

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the post mortem interval or PMI. Three days after the death, insect evidence is often the most accurate and sometimes the only method of determining elapsed time since death. This work presents the estimation of the PMI in an experiment to test the reliability of the accumulated degree days (ADD) method and the application of this method in a real case. The study was conducted at the Laboratory of Entomology at the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie, Algeria. The domestic rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus L. was selected as the animal model. On 08th July 2012, the animal was killed. Larvae were collected and raised to adulthood. Estimation of oviposition time was calculated by summing up average daily temperatures minus minimum development temperature (also specific to each species). When the sum is reached, it corresponds to the oviposition day. Weather data were obtained from the nearest meteorological station. After rearing was accomplished, three species emerged: Lucilia sericata, Chrysomya albiceps, and Sarcophaga africa. For Chrysomya albiceps species, a cumulation of 186°C is necessary. The emergence of adults occured on 22nd July 2012. A value of 193.4°C is reached on 9th August 2012. Lucilia sericata species require a cumulation of 207°C. The emergence of adults occurred on 23rd, July 2012. A value of 211.35°C is reached on 9th August 2012. We should also consider that oviposition may occur more than 12 hours after death. Thus, the obtained PMI is in agreement with the actual time of death. We illustrate the use of this method during the investigation of a case of a decaying human body found on 03rd March 2015 in Bechar, South West of Algerian desert. Maggots were collected and sent to the Laboratory of Entomology. Lucilia sericata adults were identified on 24th March 2015 after emergence. A sum of 211.6°C was reached on 1st March 2015 which corresponds to the estimated day of oviposition. Therefore, the estimated date of death is 1st March 2015 ± 24 hours. The estimated PMI by accumulated degree days (ADD) method seems to be very precise. Entomological evidence should always be used in homicide investigations when the time of death cannot be determined by other methods.

Keywords: forensic entomology, accumulated degree days, postmortem interval, diptera, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Mohammadreza Hedyehzadeh, Mahdi Yousefi

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Colon cancer is one of the most common cancer, which predicted to increase its prevalence due to the bad eating habits of peoples. Nowadays, due to the busyness of people, the use of fast foods is increasing, and therefore, diagnosis of this disease and its treatment are of particular importance. To determine the best treatment approach for each specific colon cancer patients, the oncologist should be known the stage of the tumor. The most common method to determine the tumor stage is TNM staging system. In this system, M indicates the presence of metastasis, N indicates the extent of spread to the lymph nodes, and T indicates the size of the tumor. It is clear that in order to determine all three of these parameters, an imaging method must be used, and the gold standard imaging protocols for this purpose are CT and PET/CT. In CT imaging, due to the use of X-rays, the risk of cancer and the absorbed dose of the patient is high, while in the PET/CT method, there is a lack of access to the device due to its high cost. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to estimate the tumor size and the extent of its spread to the lymph nodes using MR images. More than 1300 MR images collected from the TCIA portal, and in the first step (pre-processing), histogram equalization to improve image qualities and resizing to get the same image size was done. Two expert radiologists, which work more than 21 years on colon cancer cases, segmented the images and extracted the tumor region from the images. The next step is feature extraction from segmented images and then classify the data into three classes: T0N0، T3N1 و T3N2. In this article, the VGG-16 convolutional neural network has been used to perform both of the above-mentioned tasks, i.e., feature extraction and classification. This network has 13 convolution layers for feature extraction and three fully connected layers with the softmax activation function for classification. In order to validate the proposed method, the 10-fold cross validation method used in such a way that the data was randomly divided into three parts: training (70% of data), validation (10% of data) and the rest for testing. It is repeated 10 times, each time, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model are calculated and the average of ten repetitions is reported as the result. The accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of the proposed method for testing dataset was 89/09%, 95/8% and 96/4%. Compared to previous studies, using a safe imaging technique (MRI) and non-use of predefined hand-crafted imaging features to determine the stage of colon cancer patients are some of the study advantages.

Keywords: colon cancer, VGG-16, magnetic resonance imaging, tumor size, lymph node metastasis

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Sujing Wang, Song Wang, Jian Zhang, Qiang Xu

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Flaring emissions during abnormal operating conditions such as plant start-ups, shut-downs, and upsets in chemical process industries (CPI) are usually significant. Flare minimization can help to save raw material and energy for CPI plants, and to improve local environmental sustainability. In this paper, a systematic methodology based on plant-wide dynamic simulation is presented for CPI plant flare minimizations under abnormal operating conditions. Since off-specification emission sources are inevitable during abnormal operating conditions, to significantly reduce flaring emission in a CPI plant, they must be either recycled to the upstream process for online reuse, or stored somewhere temporarily for future reprocessing, when the CPI plant manufacturing returns to stable operation. Thus, the off-spec products could be reused instead of being flared. This can be achieved through the identification of viable design and operational strategies during normal and abnormal operations through plant-wide dynamic scheduling, simulation, and optimization. The proposed study includes three stages of simulation works: (i) developing and validating a steady-state model of a CPI plant; (ii) transiting the obtained steady-state plant model to the dynamic modeling environment; and refining and validating the plant dynamic model; and (iii) developing flare minimization strategies for abnormal operating conditions of a CPI plant via a validated plant-wide dynamic model. This cost-effective methodology has two main merits: (i) employing large-scale dynamic modeling and simulations for industrial flare minimization, which involves various unit models for modeling hundreds of CPI plant facilities; (ii) dealing with critical abnormal operating conditions of CPI plants such as plant start-up and shut-down. Two virtual case studies on flare minimizations for start-up operation (over 50% of emission savings) and shut-down operation (over 70% of emission savings) of an ethylene plant have been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed study.

Keywords: flare minimization, large-scale modeling and simulation, plant shut-down, plant start-up

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Zuliziana Suif, Nordila Ahmad, Sengheng Hul

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This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on suspended sediment changes in the Mekong River Basin. In this study, the distributed process-based sediment transport model is used to examine the potential impact of future climate on suspended sediment dynamic changes in the Mekong River Basin. To this end, climate scenarios from two General Circulation Model (GCMs) were considered in the scenario analysis. The simulation results show that the sediment load and concentration shows 0.64% to 69% increase in the near future (2041-2050) and 2.5% to 95% in the far future (2090- 2099). As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in sediment management. Overall, the changes in sediment load and concentration can have a great implication for related sediment management.

Keywords: climate change, suspended sediment, Mekong River Basin, GCMs

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Authors: Krzysztof Pomorski

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In the given work we present universal mathematical framework for modeling of cattle farm system that can set and validate various hypothesis that can be tested against experimental data. The presented work is preliminary but it is expected to be valid tool for future deeper analysis that can result in new class of prediction methods allowing early detection of cow dieseaes as well as cow performance. Therefore the presented work shall have its meaning in agriculture models and in machine learning as well. It also opens the possibilities for incorporation of certain class of biological models necessary in modeling of cow behavior and farm performance that might include the impact of environment on the farm system. Particular attention is paid to the model of coupled oscillators that it the basic building hypothesis that can construct the model showing certain periodic or quasiperiodic behavior.

Keywords: coupled ordinary differential equations, cattle farm system, numerical methods, stochastic differential equations

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 454

Authors: Elena Pummer, Holger Schuettrumpf

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By today underground pumped storage plants as an outstanding alternative for classical pumped storage plants do not exist. They are needed to ensure the required balance between production and demand of energy. As a short to medium term storage pumped storage plants have been used economically over a long period of time, but their expansion is limited locally. The reasons are in particular the required topography and the extensive human land use. Through the use of underground reservoirs instead of surface lakes expansion options could be increased. Fulfilling the same functions, several hydrodynamic processes result in the specific design of the underground reservoirs and must be implemented in the planning process of such systems. A combined 3D numerical and experimental approach leads to currently unknown results about the occurring wave types and their behavior in dependence of different design and operating criteria. For the 3D numerical simulations, OpenFOAM was used and combined with an experimental approach in the laboratory of the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management at RWTH Aachen University, Germany. Using the finite-volume method and an explicit time discretization, a RANS-Simulation (k-ε) has been run. Convergence analyses for different time discretization, different meshes etc. and clear comparisons between both approaches lead to the result, that the numerical and experimental models can be combined and used as hybrid model. Undular bores partly with secondary waves and breaking bores occurred in the underground reservoir. Different water levels and discharges change the global effects, defined as the time-dependent average of the water level as well as the local processes, defined as the single, local hydrodynamic processes (water waves). Design criteria, like branches, directional changes, changes in cross-section or bottom slope, as well as changes in roughness have a great effect on the local processes, the global effects remain unaffected. Design calculations for underground pumped storage plants were developed on the basis of existing formulae and the results of the hybrid approach. Using the design calculations reservoirs heights as well as oscillation periods can be determined and lead to the knowledge of construction and operation possibilities of the plants. Consequently, future plants can be hydraulically optimized applying the design calculations on the local boundary conditions.

Keywords: energy storage, experimental approach, hybrid approach, undular and breaking Bores, 3D numerical approach

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Authors: Bator Shagdyrov, Elena Zorina, Tamara Nesterenko

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The aim of the research was to develop a design of micromechanical gyroscope, which will be used in the automotive industry, safety systems and anti-lock braking system. The research resulted in improvement of one of the technical parameters – bandwidth. In the process of mass production of micromechanical sensors, problems occurred with their use. One of the problems was a narrow bandwidth typical for the gyroscopes with a high-quality factor. A constructive way of increasing bandwidth is to use multimass systems via secondary oscillations axis. When constructing, the main task was to choose the frequency - phases and antiphases as close to each other as possible, and set the frequency of the primary oscillation evenly between them. Investigations are carried out using the T-Flex CAD finite element program and T-Flex ANALYSIS support package. The results obtained are planned to use in the future for the production of an experimental model of development and testing in practice of characteristics derived by theoretical means.

Keywords: bandwidth, inertial mass, mathematical model, micromechanical gyroscope, micromechanics

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Introduction: Improving patient safety in health systems is one of the main priorities in healthcare systems, so clinical risk management in organizations has become increasingly significant. Although several tools have been developed for clinical risk management, each has its own limitations. Aims: This study aims to develop a comprehensive tool that can complete the limitations of each risk assessment and management tools with the advantage of other tools. Methods: Procedure was determined in two main stages included development of an initial model during meetings with the professors and literature review, then implementation and verification of final model. Subjects and Methods: This study is a quantitative − qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment of the two parts of the fourth phase and seven phases of the research was conducted. Purposive and stratification sampling of various responsible teams for the selected process was conducted in the operating room. Final model verified in eight phases through application of activity breakdown structure, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), healthcare risk priority number (RPN), root cause analysis (RCA), FT, and Eindhoven Classification model (ECM) tools. This model has been conducted typically on patients admitted in a day-clinic ward of a public hospital for surgery in October 2012 to June. Statistical Analysis Used: Qualitative data analysis was done through content analysis and quantitative analysis done through checklist and edited RPN tables. Results: After verification the final model in eight-step, patient's admission process for surgery was developed by focus discussion group (FDG) members in five main phases. Then with adopted methodology of FMEA, 85 failure modes along with its causes, effects, and preventive capabilities was set in the tables. Developed tables to calculate RPN index contain three criteria for severity, two criteria for probability, and two criteria for preventability. Tree failure modes were above determined significant risk limitation (RPN > 250). After a 3-month period, patient's misidentification incidents were the most frequent reported events. Each RPN criterion of misidentification events compared and found that various RPN number for tree misidentification reported events could be determine against predicted score in previous phase. Identified root causes through fault tree categorized with ECM. Wrong side surgery event was selected by focus discussion group to purpose improvement action. The most important causes were lack of planning for number and priority of surgical procedures. After prioritization of the suggested interventions, computerized registration system in health information system (HIS) was adopted to prepare the action plan in the final phase. Conclusion: Complexity of health care industry requires risk managers to have a multifaceted vision. Therefore, applying only one of retrospective or prospective tools for risk management does not work and each organization must provide conditions for potential application of these methods in its organization. The results of this study showed that the integrated clinical risk management model can be used in hospitals as an efficient tool in order to improve clinical governance.

Keywords: failure modes and effective analysis, risk management, root cause analysis, model

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Authors: Yared Yitagesu Tilahun

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Every nation, developed or developing, relies on transportation, but Addis Abeba City's transportation service is impacted by a number of variables. The current study's objectives are to determine the factors that influence transportation and gauge consumer satisfaction with such services in Addis Abeba. Customers and employees of Addis Ababa's transportation service authority would be the study's target group. 40 workers of the authority would be counted as part of the 310 000 clients that make up the population of the searcher service. Using a straightforward random selection technique, the researcher only chose 99 customers and 28 staff from this enormous group due to the considerable cost and time involved. Data gathering and analysis options included both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The results of this poll show that young people between the ages of 18 and 25 make up the majority of respondents (51.6%). The majority of employees and customers indicated that they are not satisfied with Addis Ababa's overall transportation system. The Addis Abeba Transportation Authority prioritizes client happiness by providing fair service. The company should have a system in place for managing time, resources, and people effectively. It should also provide employees the opportunity to contribute to client handling policies.

Keywords: transportation, customer satisfaction, services, determinants

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Authors: Apollinaire Barme, Simon Tamayo, Arthur Gaudron

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This paper presents a statistical approach to identify explanatory variables linearly related to e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology allows specifying a regression model in order to quantify the relevance between openly available data (economic and demographic) and national e-commerce sales. The proposed methodology consists in collecting data, preselecting input variables, performing regressions for choosing variables and models, testing and validating. The usefulness of the proposed approach is twofold: on the one hand, it allows identifying the variables that influence e- commerce sales with an accessible approach. And on the other hand, it can be used to model future sales from the input variables. Results show that e-commerce is linearly dependent on 11 economic and demographic indicators.

Keywords: e-commerce, statistical modeling, regression, empirical research

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Authors: Tarek A. Mekail, Walid M. A. Elmagid

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Many researches have concentrated on improving the aerodynamic performance of wind turbine blade through testing and theoretical studies. A small wind turbine blade is designed, fabricated and tested. The power performance of small horizontal axis wind turbines is simulated in details using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD). The three-dimensional CFD models are presented using ANSYS-CFX v13 software for predicting the performance of a small horizontal axis wind turbine. The simulation results are compared with the experimental data measured from a small wind turbine model, which designed according to a vehicle-based test system. The analysis of wake effect and aerodynamic of the blade can be carried out when the rotational effect was simulated. Finally, comparison between experimental, numerical and analytical performance has been done. The comparison is fairly good.

Keywords: small wind turbine, CFD of wind turbine, CFD, performance of wind turbine, test of small wind turbine, wind turbine aerodynamic, 3D model

Procedia PDF Downloads 528

Authors: Archil Undilashvili, Ketevan Stvilia, Dustin Gilbreath, Giorgi Dzneladze, Gordon Charchward

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Introduction: In recent years, diverse types of wheelchairs, both local production and imported, have been made available on the Georgian market for wheelchair users. Some types of wheelchairs are sold together with a service package, while the others, including the State Program, Supported locally-produced ones, don’t provide adjustment and maintenance service packages to users. Within the USAID Physical Rehabilitation Project in Georgia, a study was conducted to assess the impact of the wheelchair service provision in line with the WHO guidelines on the health and overall satisfaction of wheelchair users in Georgia. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in May 2021. A structured questionnaire was used for telephone interviews that, along with socio-demographic characteristics, included questions for assessment of accessibility, availability, timeliness, cost and quality of wheelchair services received. Out of 1060 individuals listed in the census of wheelchair users, 752 were available for interview, with an actual response rate of 73.4%. 552 wheelchair users (31%) or their caregivers (69%) agreed to participate in the survey. In addition to using descriptive statistics, the study used multivariate matching of wheelchair users who received wheelchair services and who did not (control group). In addition, to evaluate satisfaction with service provision, respondents were asked to assess services. Findings: The majority (67%) of wheelchair users included in the survey were male. The average age of participants was 43. The three most frequently named reasons for using a wheelchair were cerebral palsy (29%), followed by stroke (18%), and amputation (12%). Users have had their current chair for four years on average. Overall, 60% of respondents reported that they were assessed before providing a wheelchair, but only half of them reported that their preferences and needs were considered. Only 13% of respondents had services in line with WHO guidelines and only 22% of wheelchair users had training when they received their current chair. 16% of participants said they had follow-up services, and 41% received adjustment services after receiving the chair. A slight majority (56%) of participants were satisfied with the quality of service provision and the service provision overall. Similarly, 55% were satisfied with the accessibility of service provision. A slightly larger majority (61%) were satisfied with the timeliness of service provision. The matching analysis suggests that users that received services in line with WHO guidelines were more satisfied with their chairs (the difference 17 point/0-100 scale) and they were four percentage points less likely to have health problems attributed to the chair. The regression analysis provides a similar finding of a 21 point increase in satisfaction attributable to services. Conclusion: The provision of wheelchair services in line with WHO guidelines and with follow-up services is likely to have a positive impact on the daily lives of wheelchair users in Georgia. Wheelchair services should be institutionalized as a standard component of wheelchair provision in Georgia.

Keywords: physical rehabilitation, wheelchair users, persons with disabilities, wheelchair production

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Authors: Z. W. Zhong, C. Xu, W. K. Choi

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To build a thin fan-out wafer-level package, the package had to be ground to a thin level. In this work, the influence of the grinding processes on the strength of the fan-out wafer-level packages was investigated. After different grinding processes, all specimens were placed on a three-point-bending fixture installed on a universal tester for three-point-bending testing, and the strength of the fan-out wafer-level packages was measured. The experiments revealed that the average flexure strength increased with the decreasing surface roughness height of the fan-out wafer-level package tested. The grinding processes had a significant influence on the strength of the fan-out wafer-level packages investigated.

Keywords: FOWLP strength, surface roughness, three-point bending, grinding

Procedia PDF Downloads 266

Authors: Ramona Georgeta Biholar

Abstract:

Gender-based violence against women plagues societies around the world. The work to eliminate it is an ongoing battle. At the international level, Article 5 (a) CEDAW establishes an agenda for social and cultural transformation: it imposes on States parties to CEDAW an obligation to modify sex roles and stereotypical social and cultural patterns of conduct. Also, it provides for the protection of women from violence stemming from such gender norms. Yet, the lived realities of women are frequently disconnected from this agenda. Nonetheless, it is the reality of the local that is crucial for the articulation, implementation and realization of women’s rights in general, and for the elimination of gender-based violence against women in particular. In this paper we discuss the transformation of sex roles and gender stereotyping with a view to realize women’s right to be free from gender-based violence. This paper is anchored in qualitative data collection undertaken in Jamaica and socio-legal research. Based on this research, 1) We explain the process of vernacularisation as a strategy that enables women’s human rights to hit the ground and benefit rights holders, and 2) We present a synergistic model for the implementation of Article 5 (a) CEDAW so that women’s right to be free from gender-based violence can be realized in a concrete national jurisdiction. This model is grounded in context-based demands and recommendations for social and cultural transformation as a remedy for the incidence of gender-based violence against women. Moreover, the synergistic model offers directions that have a general application for the implementation of CEDAW and Article 5 (a) CEDAW in particular, with a view to realize women’s right to be free from gender-based violence. The model is thus not only a conceptual tool of analysis, but also a prescriptive tool for action. It contributes to the work of both academics and practitioners, such as Governmental officials, and national and local civil society representatives. Overall, this paper contributes to understanding the process necessary to bridge that gap between women’s human rights norms and women’s life realities of discrimination and violence.

Keywords: CEDAW, gender-based violence against women, international human rights law, women’s rights implementation, the Caribbean

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Y. Atilgan Şengül

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Health information technologies promise higher quality, safer care and much more for both patients and professionals. Despite their promise, they are costly to develop and difficult to implement. On the other hand, user acceptance and usage determine the success of implemented information technology in healthcare. This study provides a model to understand health professionals’ perception and expectation of health information technology. Extensive literature review has been conducted to determine the main factors to be measured. A questionnaire has been designed as a measurement model and submitted to the personnel of an in vitro fertilization clinic. The respondents’ degree of agreement according to five-point Likert scale was 72% for convenient access to data and 69.4% for the importance of data security. There was a significant difference in acceptance of electronic data storage for female respondents. Also, other significant differences between professions were obtained.

Keywords: healthcare, health informatics, medical record system, questionnaire

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Tomas Linas Šepetys

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In online content-sharing service platforms, the ability of creators to restrict illicit use of audiovisual creative works has effectively been abolished, largely due to specific infrastructure where a huge volume of copyrighted audiovisual content can be made available to the public. The European Union legislator has attempted to strengthen the positions of creators in the realm of online content-sharing services. Article 17 of the new Digital Single Market Directive considers online content-sharing service providers to carry out acts of communication to the public of any creative content uploaded to their platforms by users and posits requirements to obtain licensing agreements. While such regulation intends to assert authors‘ ability to effectively control the dissemination of their creative works, it also creates threats of parody content overblocking through automated content monitoring. Such potentially paradoxical outcome of the efforts of the EU legislator to deliver economic safeguards for the creators in the online content-sharing service platforms leads to presume lack of informity on legislator‘s part regarding creative works‘ economic exploitation opportunities provided to creators in the online content-sharing infrastructure. Analysis conducted in this scientific research discloses that the aforementioned irregularities of parody and other creative content dissemination are caused by EU legislators‘ lack of assessment of value extraction conditions for parody creators in the online content-sharing service platforms. Historical and modeling research method application reveals the existence of two creative content dissemination models and their unique mechanisms of commercial value creation. Obligations to obtain licenses and liability over creative content uploaded to their platforms by users set in Article 17 of the Digital Single Market Directive represent technological replication of the proprietary dissemination model where the creator is able to restrict access to creative content apart from licensed retail channels. The online content-sharing service platforms represent an open dissemination model where the economic potential of creative content is based on the infrastructure of unrestricted access by users and partnership with advertising services offered by the platform. Balanced modeling of proprietary dissemination models in such infrastructure requires not only automated content monitoring measures but also additional regulatory monitoring solutions to separate parody and other types of creative content. An example of the Digital Single Market Directive proves that regulation can dictate not only the technological establishment of a proprietary dissemination model but also a partial reduction of the open dissemination model and cause a disbalance between the economic interests of creators relying on such models. The results of this scientific research conclude an informative role of the creative works dissemination model in the EU copyright law modernization process. A thorough understanding of the commercial prospects of the open dissemination model intrinsic to the online content-sharing service platform structure requires and encourages EU legislators to regulate safeguards for parody content dissemination. Implementing such safeguards would result in a common application of proprietary and open dissemination models in the online content-sharing service platforms and balanced protection of creators‘ economic interests explicitly based on those creative content dissemination models.

Keywords: copyright law, creative works dissemination model, digital single market directive, online content-sharing services

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Fereshteh Darash

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Reflective tax management corresponds to the Agency Theory since it determines the motivation of managers for tax management actions and short-term and long-term consequences. Therefore, selection of tax strategy contributes to the tax and financial position of the firm in the future. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the effect of tax management components on risk-taking of firms listed in Tehran stock exchange by using regression analysis method. Results show that tax effective rate, tax risk and tax planning have no significant effect on the firm's future risk. Results suggest that stakeholders assess the effective tax rate and delay in tax payment in line with their benefits. They tend to accept the higher risk cost for reduction of tax payments and benefits of higher liquidity in current period. Hence, effective tax rate and tax risk have no significant effect on future risk of the firm. Moreover, tax planning yields no information regarding the predictability of the future profits and as a result, it has no significant effect on the future risk of the firm since specific goals of financial reporting are in priority for the stakeholders and regardless of the firm’s data analysis, they take investment decisions and they less intend to purchase the stocks in a rational manner.

Keywords: tax management, tax effective rate, tax risk, tax planning, firm risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Faisal A. Aburub

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Organizations today need to invest in software in order to run their businesses, and to the organizations’ objectives, the software should be in line with the business process. This research presents an approach for linking process models and system models. Particularly, the new approach aims to synthesize sequence diagram based on role activity diagram (RAD) model. The approach includes four steps namely: Create business process model using RAD, identify computerized activities, identify entities in sequence diagram and identify messages in sequence diagram. The new approach has been validated using the process of student registration in University of Petra as a case study. Further research is required to validate the new approach using different domains.

Keywords: business process modelling, system models, role activity diagrams, sequence diagrams

Procedia PDF Downloads 369