Search results for: estimating costs
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2773

Search results for: estimating costs

1963 The Review of Coiled Tubing Intelligent Sidetracking Steering Technology

Authors: Zhao Xueran, Yang Dong

Abstract:

In order to improve the problem that old wells in oilfields are shut down due to low oil recovery, sidetracking has become one of the main technical means to restore the vitality of old wells. A variety of sidetracking technologies have been researched and formed internationally. Among them, coiled tubing sidetracking horizontal wells have significant advantages over conventional sidetracking methods: underbalanced pressure operations; reducing the number of trips of tubing, while drilling and production, saving construction costs, less ground equipment and less floor space, orienter guidance to reduce drilling friction, etc. This paper mainly introduces the steering technology in coiled tubing intelligent sidetracking at home and abroad, including the orienter and the rotary steerable system.

Keywords: sidetracking, coiled tubing, orienter, rotary steering system

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
1962 NSBS: Design of a Network Storage Backup System

Authors: Xinyan Zhang, Zhipeng Tan, Shan Fan

Abstract:

The first layer of defense against data loss is the backup data. This paper implements an agent-based network backup system used the backup, server-storage and server-backup agent these tripartite construction, and we realize the snapshot and hierarchical index in the NSBS. It realizes the control command and data flow separation, balances the system load, thereby improving the efficiency of the system backup and recovery. The test results show the agent-based network backup system can effectively improve the task-based concurrency, reasonably allocate network bandwidth, the system backup performance loss costs smaller and improves data recovery efficiency by 20%.

Keywords: agent, network backup system, three architecture model, NSBS

Procedia PDF Downloads 446
1961 Deficits and Solutions in the Development of Modular Factory Systems

Authors: Achim Kampker, Peter Burggräf, Moritz Krunke, Hanno Voet

Abstract:

As a reaction to current challenges in factory planning, many companies think about introducing factory standards to lower planning times and decrease planning costs. If these factory standards are set-up with a high level of modularity, they are defined as modular factory systems. This paper deals with the main current problems in the application of modular factory systems in practice and presents a solution approach with its basic models. The methodology is based on methods from factory planning but also uses the tools of other disciplines like product development or technology management to deal with the high complexity, which the development of modular factory systems implies. The four basic models that such a methodology has to contain are introduced and pointed out.

Keywords: factory planning, modular factory systems, factory standards, cost-benefit analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 586
1960 Release Management with Continuous Delivery: A Case Study

Authors: A. Maruf Aytekin

Abstract:

We present our approach on using continuous delivery pattern for release management. One of the key practices of agile and lean teams is the continuous delivery of new features to stakeholders. The main benefits of this approach lie in the ability to release new applications rapidly which has real strategic impact on the competitive advantage of an organization. Organizations that successfully implement Continuous Delivery have the ability to evolve rapidly to support innovation, provide stable and reliable software in more efficient ways, decrease the amount of resources need for maintenance, and lower the software delivery time and costs. One of the objectives of this paper is to elaborate a case study where IT division of Central Securities Depository Institution (MKK) of Turkey apply Continuous Delivery pattern to improve release management process.

Keywords: automation, continuous delivery, deployment, release management

Procedia PDF Downloads 242
1959 System Dynamics Projections of Environmental Issues for Domestic Water and Wastewater Scenarios in Urban Area of India

Authors: Isha Sharawat, R. P. Dahiya, T. R. Sreekrishnan

Abstract:

One of the environmental challenges in India is urban wastewater management as regulations and infrastructural development has not kept pace with the urbanization and growing population. The quality of life of people is also improving with the rapid growth of the gross domestic product. This has contributed to the enhancement in the per capita water requirement and consumption. More domestic water consumption generates more wastewater. The scarcity of potable water is making the situation quite serious, and water supply has to be regulated in most parts of the country during summer. This requires elaborate and concerted efforts to efficiently manage the water resources and supply systems. In this article, a system dynamics modelling approach is used for estimating the water demand and wastewater generation in a district headquarter city of North India. Projections are made till the year 2035. System dynamics is a software tool used for formulation of policies. On the basis of the estimates, policy scenarios are developed for sustainable development of water resources in conformity with the growing population. Mitigation option curtailing the water demand and wastewater generation include population stabilization, water reuse and recycle and water pricing. The model is validated quantitatively, and sensitivity analysis tests are carried out to examine the robustness of the model.

Keywords: system dynamics, wastewater, water pricing, water recycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
1958 Challenge and Benefits of Adoption ISO 9001 Certification in Algerian Agribusiness

Authors: Nouara Boulfoul, Fatima Brabez

Abstract:

This article presents the status of ISO 9001: 2000 certification in some agro-food companies in Algeria. The article discusses challenges and contributions of certification as perceived by quality managers as well as the difficulties encountered during certification. It also provides the recommendations of these managers for companies that have a certification project. The results show that the top three reasons for adopting ISO 9001: 2000 certification are building a better organization, reducing the costs of non-compliance and meeting customer expectations. The contributions are of an external nature (recognition, brand image, extension of markets, etc.) but also of an internal nature (improvement of the organization, etc.). The recommendations mainly concern management motivation, staff awareness and involvement and compliance with the requirements of the standard.

Keywords: quality management, certification, ISO 9001: 2000, food companies

Procedia PDF Downloads 215
1957 Estimating Anthropometric Dimensions for Saudi Males Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Waleed Basuliman

Abstract:

Anthropometric dimensions are considered one of the important factors when designing human-machine systems. In this study, the estimation of anthropometric dimensions has been improved by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model that is able to predict the anthropometric measurements of Saudi males in Riyadh City. A total of 1427 Saudi males aged 6 to 60 years participated in measuring 20 anthropometric dimensions. These anthropometric measurements are considered important for designing the work and life applications in Saudi Arabia. The data were collected during eight months from different locations in Riyadh City. Five of these dimensions were used as predictors variables (inputs) of the model, and the remaining 15 dimensions were set to be the measured variables (Model’s outcomes). The hidden layers varied during the structuring stage, and the best performance was achieved with the network structure 6-25-15. The results showed that the developed Neural Network model was able to estimate the body dimensions of Saudi male population in Riyadh City. The network's mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were found to be 0.0348 and 3.225, respectively. These results were found less, and then better, than the errors found in the literature. Finally, the accuracy of the developed neural network was evaluated by comparing the predicted outcomes with regression model. The ANN model showed higher coefficient of determination (R2) between the predicted and actual dimensions than the regression model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, anthropometric measurements, back-propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 474
1956 Estimating Air Particulate Matter 10 Using Satellite Data and Analyzing Its Annual Temporal Pattern over Gaza Strip, Palestine

Authors: ِAbdallah A. A. Shaheen

Abstract:

Gaza Strip faces economic and political issues such as conflict, siege and urbanization; all these have led to an increase in the air pollution over Gaza Strip. In this study, Particulate matter 10 (PM10) concentration over Gaza Strip has been estimated by Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) data, based on a multispectral algorithm. Simultaneously, in-situ measurements for the corresponding particulate are acquired for selected time period. Landsat and ground data for eleven years are used to develop the algorithm while four years data (2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014) have been used to validate the results of algorithm. The developed algorithm gives highest regression, R coefficient value i.e. 0.86; RMSE value as 9.71 µg/m³; P values as 0. Average validation of algorithm show that calculated PM10 strongly correlates with measured PM10, indicating high efficiency of algorithm for the mapping of PM10 concentration during the years 2000 to 2014. Overall results show increase in minimum, maximum and average yearly PM10 concentrations, also presents similar trend over urban area. The rate of urbanization has been evaluated by supervised classification of the Landsat image. Urban sprawl from year 2000 to 2014 results in a high concentration of PM10 in the study area.

Keywords: PM10, landsat, atmospheric reflectance, Gaza strip, urbanization

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
1955 European Hinterland and Foreland: Impact of Accessibility, Connectivity, Inter-Port Competition on Containerization

Authors: Dial Tassadit Rania, Figueiredo De Oliveira Gabriel

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between ports and their hinterland and foreland environments and the competitive relationship between the ports themselves. These two environments are changing, evolving and introducing new challenges for commercial and economic development at the regional, national and international levels. Because of the rise of the containerization phenomenon, shipping costs and port handling costs have considerably decreased due to economies of scale. The volume of maritime trade has increased substantially and the markets served by the ports have expanded. On these bases, overlapping hinterlands can give rise to the phenomenon of competition between ports. Our main contribution comparing to the existing literature on this issue, is to build a set of hinterland, foreland and competition indicators. Using these indicators? we investigate the effect of hinterland accessibility, foreland connectivity and inter-ports competition on containerized traffic of Europeans ports. For this, we have a 10-year panel database from 2004 to 2014. Our hinterland indicators are given by two indicators of accessibility; they describe the market potential of a port and are calculated using information on population and wealth (GDP). We then calculate population and wealth for different neighborhoods within a distance from a port ranging from 100 to 1000km. For the foreland, we produce two indicators: port connectivity and number of partners for each port. Finally, we compute the two indicators of inter-port competition and a market concentration indicator (Hirshmann-Herfindhal) for different neighborhood-distances around the port. We then apply a fixed-effect model to test the relationship above. Again, with a fixed effects model, we do a sensitivity analysis for each of these indicators to support the results obtained. The econometric results of the general model given by the regression of the accessibility indicators, the LSCI for port i, and the inter-port competition indicator on the containerized traffic of European ports show a positive and significant effect for accessibility to wealth and not to the population. The results are positive and significant for the two indicators of connectivity and competition as well. One of the main results of this research is that the port development given here by the increase of its containerized traffic is strongly related to the development of its hinterland and foreland environment. In addition, it is the market potential, given by the wealth of the hinterland that has an impact on the containerized traffic of a port. However, accessibility to a large population pool is not important for understanding the dynamics of containerized port traffic. Furthermore, in order to continue to develop, a port must penetrate its hinterland at a deep level exceeding 100 km around the port and seek markets beyond this perimeter. The port authorities could focus their marketing efforts on the immediate hinterland, which can, as the results shows, not be captive and thus engage new approaches of port governance to make it more attractive.

Keywords: accessibility, connectivity, European containerization, European hinterland and foreland, inter-port competition

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
1954 An Automated Procedure for Estimating the Glomerular Filtration Rate and Determining the Normality or Abnormality of the Kidney Stages Using an Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Hossain A., Chowdhury S. I.

Abstract:

Introduction: The use of a gamma camera is a standard procedure in nuclear medicine facilities or hospitals to diagnose chronic kidney disease (CKD), but the gamma camera does not precisely stage the disease. The authors sought to determine whether they could use an artificial neural network to determine whether CKD was in normal or abnormal stages based on GFR values (ANN). Method: The 250 kidney patients (Training 188, Testing 62) who underwent an ultrasonography test to diagnose a renal test in our nuclear medical center were scanned using a gamma camera. Before the scanning procedure, the patients received an injection of ⁹⁹ᵐTc-DTPA. The gamma camera computes the pre- and post-syringe radioactive counts after the injection has been pushed into the patient's vein. The artificial neural network uses the softmax function with cross-entropy loss to determine whether CKD is normal or abnormal based on the GFR value in the output layer. Results: The proposed ANN model had a 99.20 % accuracy according to K-fold cross-validation. The sensitivity and specificity were 99.10 and 99.20 %, respectively. AUC was 0.994. Conclusion: The proposed model can distinguish between normal and abnormal stages of CKD by using an artificial neural network. The gamma camera could be upgraded to diagnose normal or abnormal stages of CKD with an appropriate GFR value following the clinical application of the proposed model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, glomerular filtration rate, stages of the kidney, gamma camera

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
1953 Continuous Manufacturing of Ultra Fine Grained Materials by Severe Plastic Deformation Methods

Authors: Aslı Günay Bulutsuz, Mehmet Emin Yurci

Abstract:

Severe plastic deformation techniques are top-down deformation methods which enable superior mechanical properties by decreasing grain size. Different kind severe plastic deformation methods have been widely being used at various process temperature and geometries. Besides manufacturing advantages of severe plastic deformation technique, most of the types are being used only at the laboratory level. They cannot be adapted to industrial usage due to their continuous manufacturability and manufacturing costs. In order to enhance these manufacturing difficulties and enable widespread usage, different kinds of methods have been developed. In this review, a comprehensive literature research was fulfilled in order to highlight continuous severe plastic deformation methods.

Keywords: continuous manufacturing, severe plastic deformation, ultrafine grains, grain size refinement

Procedia PDF Downloads 225
1952 Reconstructed Phase Space Features for Estimating Post Traumatic Stress Disorder

Authors: Andre Wittenborn, Jarek Krajewski

Abstract:

Trauma-related sadness in speech can alter the voice in several ways. The generation of non-linear aerodynamic phenomena within the vocal tract is crucial when analyzing trauma-influenced speech production. They include non-laminar flow and formation of jets rather than well-behaved laminar flow aspects. Especially state-space reconstruction methods based on chaotic dynamics and fractal theory have been suggested to describe these aerodynamic turbulence-related phenomena of the speech production system. To extract the non-linear properties of the speech signal, we used the time delay embedding method to reconstruct from a scalar time series (reconstructed phase space, RPS). This approach results in the extraction of 7238 Features per .wav file (N= 47, 32 m, 15 f). The speech material was prompted by telling about autobiographical related sadness-inducing experiences (sampling rate 16 kHz, 8-bit resolution). After combining these features in a support vector machine based machine learning approach (leave-one-sample out validation), we achieved a correlation of r = .41 with the well-established, self-report ground truth measure (RATS) of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

Keywords: non-linear dynamics features, post traumatic stress disorder, reconstructed phase space, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 94
1951 Automated Server Configuration Management using Ansible

Authors: Kartik Mahajan

Abstract:

DevOps methodologies streamline software development and operations, promoting collaboration and automation. Traditional server management often relies on manual, repetitive tasks, leading to inefficiencies, potential errors, and increased operational costs. Ansible, as a configuration management tool, presents a compelling solution for automating infrastructure management processes. This review paper explores the implementation and testing of Ansible for server management, specifically focusing on automated user account configuration. By replacing manual procedures with Ansible playbooks, we aim to optimize server management, reduce human error, and potentially mitigate operational expenses. This study offers insights into Ansible’s efficacy within a DevOps context, highlighting its potential to transform server administration practices.

Keywords: cloud, Devops, automation, ansible

Procedia PDF Downloads 33
1950 Seismic Performance Point of RC Frame Buildings Using ATC-40, FEMA 356 and FEMA 440 Guidelines

Authors: Gram Y. Rivas Sanchez

Abstract:

The seismic design codes in the world allow the analysis of structures considering an elastic-linear behavior; however, against earthquakes, the structures exhibit non-linear behaviors that induce damage to their elements. For this reason, it is necessary to use non-linear methods to analyze these structures, being the dynamic methods that provide more reliable results but require a lot of computational costs; on the other hand, non-linear static methods do not have this disadvantage and are being used more and more. In the present work, the nonlinear static analysis (pushover) of RC frame buildings of three, five, and seven stories is carried out considering models of concentrated plasticity using plastic hinges; and the seismic performance points are determined using ATC-40, FEMA 356, and FEMA 440 guidelines. Using this last standard, the highest inelastic displacements and basal shears are obtained, providing designs that are more conservative.

Keywords: pushover, nonlinear, RC building, FEMA 440, ATC 40

Procedia PDF Downloads 139
1949 Evaluation of Radioprotective Effect of Solanun melongena L. in the Survival of Lasioderma serricorne (Coleoptera, Anobiidae) Irradiated with Gamma Rays of Cobalt-60

Authors: Adilson C. Barros, Kayo Okazaki, Valter Arthur

Abstract:

The radio-protective substances protect the organism from ionizing radiation when previously ingested. Synthetic radio-protectives produce unpleasant side effects and are expensive. This article reports the search for natural radio-protective agents in foods, whose occurrence is widespread, costs are lower and the side effects are non-existent. In this work, we studied the eggplant, a food widely used in Brazil, comparing the radiosensitivity of insects reared on diet eggplant and outside this diet. The eggplant causes change in LD50 parameter of insects population but the response curve needs to be better shaped to conclude something about radioprotection. What we can see is that it seems to contain some radiomodifier substance.

Keywords: radioprotector, radiobiology, Solanun melongena L., Lasioderma serricorne

Procedia PDF Downloads 424
1948 A Review on Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Development in Nigeria

Authors: Kudu Dangana

Abstract:

The occurrences of disaster often call for the support of both government and non-government organization. Consequently, disaster relief remains extremely important in disaster management. However, this approach alone does not proactively address the need to adduce the human and environment impacts of future disasters. Recent thinking in the area of disaster management is indicative of the need for a new paradigm that focuses on reducing the risk of disasters with the involvement and participation of communities. This paper reviews the need for communities to place more emphasis on a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction. This approach involves risk assessment, risk reduction, early warning and disaster preparedness in order to effectively address the reduction of social, economic, and environmental costs of disasters nationally and at the global level.

Keywords: disaster, early, management, warning, relief, risk vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 636
1947 Application of ANN for Estimation of Power Demand of Villages in Sulaymaniyah Governorate

Authors: A. Majeed, P. Ali

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Before designing an electrical system, the estimation of load is necessary for unit sizing and demand-generation balancing. The system could be a stand-alone system for a village or grid connected or integrated renewable energy to grid connection, especially as there are non–electrified villages in developing countries. In the classical model, the energy demand was found by estimating the household appliances multiplied with the amount of their rating and the duration of their operation, but in this paper, information exists for electrified villages could be used to predict the demand, as villages almost have the same life style. This paper describes a method used to predict the average energy consumed in each two months for every consumer living in a village by Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The input data are collected using a regional survey for samples of consumers representing typical types of different living, household appliances and energy consumption by a list of information, and the output data are collected from administration office of Piramagrun for each corresponding consumer. The result of this study shows that the average demand for different consumers from four villages in different months throughout the year is approximately 12 kWh/day, this model estimates the average demand/day for every consumer with a mean absolute percent error of 11.8%, and MathWorks software package MATLAB version 7.6.0 that contains and facilitate Neural Network Toolbox was used.

Keywords: artificial neural network, load estimation, regional survey, rural electrification

Procedia PDF Downloads 111
1946 Land Cover Classification System for the Estimation of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Authors: Lei Zhang

Abstract:

The carbon cycle greatly influences global change, and the land cover changes contribute to the status and rate of the carbon budget in ecosystems. This paper proposes a land cover classification system for mapping land cover, the national ecological environment assessment, and estimating carbon storage in ecosystems. The classification system consists of basic land cover classes at levels Ⅰ and Ⅱ and auxiliary features at level III. The basic 38 classes characterizing land cover features are derived from 19 criteria referring to composition, structure, pattern, phenology, etc. The basic classes reflect the status of carbon storage in ecosystems. The auxiliary classes at level III complement the attributes of higher levels by 9 criteria. The 5 environmental criteria of temperature, moisture, landform, aspect and slope mainly reflect the potential and intensity of carbon storage in ecosystems. The disturbance of vegetation succession caused by land use type influences the vegetation carbon budget. The other 3 vegetation cover criteria, growth period, and species characteristics further refine the vegetation types. The hierarchical structure of the land cover map (the classes of levels Ⅰ and Ⅱ) is independent of the products of level III, which is helpful for land cover product management and applications. The classification system has been adopted in the Chinese national land cover database for the carbon budget in ecosystems at a 30 m scale.

Keywords: classification system, land cover, ecosystem, carbon storage, object based

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
1945 Insertion of Photovoltaic Energy at Residential Level at Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela, Honduras

Authors: Tannia Vindel, Angel Matute, Erik Elvir, Kelvin Santos

Abstract:

Currently in Honduras, is been incentivized the generation of energy using renewable fonts, such as: hydroelectricity, wind power, biomass and, more recently with the strongest growth, photovoltaic energy. In July 2015 were installed 455.2 MW of photovoltaic energy, increasing by 24% the installed capacity of the national interconnected system existing in 2014, according the National Energy Company (NEC), that made possible reduce the thermoelectric dependency of the system. Given the good results of those large-scale photovoltaic plants, arises the question: is it interesting for the distribution utility and for the consumers the integration of photovoltaic systems in micro-scale in the urban and rural areas? To answer that question has been researched the insertion of photovoltaic energy in the residential sector in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela (Central District), Honduras to determine the technical and economic viability. Francisco Morazán department, according the National Statistics Institute (NSI), in 2001 had more than 180,000 houses with power service. Tegucigalpa, department and Honduras capital, and Comayagüela, both, have the highest population density in the region, with 1,300,000 habitants in 2014 (NSI). The residential sector in the south-central region of Honduras represents a high percentage being 49% of total consumption, according with NEC in 2014; where 90% of this sector consumes in a range of 0 to 300 kWh / month. All this, in addition to the high level of losses in the transmission and distribution systems, 31.3% in 2014, and the availability of an annual average solar radiation of 5.20 kWh/(m2∙day) according to the NASA, suggests the feasibility of the implementation of photovoltaic systems as a solution to give a level of independency to the households, and besides could be capable of injecting the non-used energy to the grid. The capability of exchange of energy with the grid could make the photovoltaic systems acquisition more affordable to the consumers, because of the compensation energy programs or other kinds of incentives that could be created. Technical viability of the photovoltaic systems insertion has been analyzed, considering the solar radiation monthly average to determine the monthly average of energy that would be generated with the technology accessible locally and the effects of the injection of the energy locally generated on the grid. In addition, the economic viability has been analyzed too, considering the photovoltaic systems high costs, costs of the utility, location and monthly energy consumption requirements of the families. It was found that the inclusion of photovoltaic systems in Tegucigalpa and Comayagüela could decrease in 6 MW the demand for the region if 100% of the households use photovoltaic systems, which acquisition may be more accessible with the help of government incentives and/or the application of energy exchange programs.

Keywords: grid connected, photovoltaic, residential, technical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 249
1944 The Effect of Window Position and Ceiling Height on Cooling Load in Architectural Studio

Authors: Seyedehzahra Mirrahimi

Abstract:

This paper investigates the effect of variations in window and ceiling heights on cooling inside an architectural training studio with a full-width window. For architectural training, students use the studio more often than they use ordinary classrooms. Therefore, studio dimensions and size, and the window position, directly influence the cooling load. Energy for cooling is one of the most expensive costs in the studio because of the high activity levels of students during the warm season. The methodology of analysis involves measuring energy changes in the Energy Plus software in Kish Island. It was proved that the cooling energy in an architecture studio can be increased by changing window levels and ceiling heights to add a range of cooling energy.

Keywords: cooling energy, Energy Plus, studio classroom, window position

Procedia PDF Downloads 278
1943 Groundwater Recharge Estimation of Fetam Catchment in Upper Blue Nile Basin North-Western Ethiopia

Authors: Mekonen G., Sileshi M., Melkamu M.

Abstract:

Recharge estimation is important for the assessment and management of groundwater resources effectively. This study applied the soil moisture balance and Baseflow separation methods to estimate groundwater recharge in the Fetam Catchment. It is one of the major catchments understudied from the different catchments in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Surface water has been subjected to high seasonal variation; due to this, groundwater is a primary option for drinking water supply to the community. This research has been conducted to estimate groundwater recharge by using fifteen years of River flow data for the Baseflow separation and ten years of daily meteorological data for the daily soil moisture balance recharge estimating method. The recharge rate by the two methods is 170.5 and 244.9mm/year daily soil moisture and baseflow separation method, respectively, and the average recharge is 207.7mm/year. The average value of annual recharge in the catchment is almost equal to the average recharge in the country, which is 200mm/year. So, each method has its own limitations, and taking the average value is preferable rather than taking a single value. Baseflow provides overestimated result compared to the average of the two, and soil moisture balance is the list estimator. The recharge estimation in the area also should be done by other recharge estimation methods.

Keywords: groundwater, recharge, baseflow separation, soil moisture balance, Fetam catchment

Procedia PDF Downloads 342
1942 Downside Risk Analysis of the Nigerian Stock Market: A Value at Risk Approach

Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

Abstract:

This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 431
1941 Statistical Analysis of Extreme Flow (Regions of Chlef)

Authors: Bouthiba Amina

Abstract:

The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 65
1940 The Effect of Supply Chain Integration on Information Sharing

Authors: Khlif Hamadi

Abstract:

Supply chain integration has become a potentially valuable way of securing shared information and improving supply chain performance since competition is no longer between organizations but among supply chains. This research conceptualizes and develops three dimensions of supply chain integration (integration with customers, integration with suppliers, and the interorganizational integration) and tests the relationships between supply chain integration, information sharing, and supply chain performance. Furthermore, the four types of information sharing namely; information sharing with customers, information sharing with suppliers, inter-functional information sharing, and intra-organizational information sharing; and the four constructs of Supply Chain Performance represents expenses of costs, asset utilization, supply chain reliability, and supply chain flexibility and responsiveness. The theoretical and practical implications of the study, as well as directions for future research, are discussed.

Keywords: supply chain integration, supply chain management, information sharing, supply chain performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
1939 Conversion of HVAC Lines into HVDC in Transmission Expansion Planning

Authors: Juan P. Novoa, Mario A. Rios

Abstract:

This paper presents a transmission planning methodology that considers the conversion of HVAC transmission lines to HVDC as an alternative of expansion of power systems, as a consequence of restrictions for the construction of new lines. The transmission expansion planning problem formulates an optimization problem that minimizes the total cost that includes the investment cost to convert lines from HVAC to HVDC and possible required reinforcements of the power system prior to the conversion. The costs analysis assesses the impact of the conversion on the reliability because transmission lines are out of service during the conversion work. The presented methodology is applied to a test system considering a planning a horizon of 10 years.

Keywords: transmission expansion planning, HVDC, cost optimization, energy non-supplied

Procedia PDF Downloads 378
1938 Dynamic Pricing With Demand Response Managment in Smart Grid: Stackelberg Game Approach

Authors: Hasibe Berfu Demi̇r, Şakir Esnaf

Abstract:

In the past decade, extensive improvements have been done in electrical grid infrastructures. It is very important to make plans on supply, demand, transmission, distribution and pricing for the development of the electricity energy sector. Based on this perspective, in this study, Stackelberg game approach is proposed for demand participation management (DRM), which has become an important component in the smart grid to effectively reduce power generation costs and user bills. The purpose of this study is to examine electricity consumption from a dynamic pricing perspective. The results obtained were compared with the current situation and the results were interpreted.

Keywords: lectricity, stackelberg, smart grid, demand response managment, dynamic pricing

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
1937 Partner Selection for Innovation Projects Related to New Product Concept Design

Authors: Odd Jarl Borch, Marina Z. Solesvik

Abstract:

The paper analyses partner selection approaches related to large scale R&D-based innovation projects at the different stages of development. We emphasize innovation projects in the maritime value chain and how partners are selected to improve quality according to high spec customer demands, and to reduce investment costs on new production technology such as advanced offshore service vessels. We elaborate on the differences in innovation approach and especially the role that purposive inflows and outflows of knowledge from external partners may be used to accelerate internal innovation. We present three cases related to different projects in terms of specificity and scope. We explore how the partner selection criteria change over time when the goals move from wide scope to a very specific R&D tasks.

Keywords: partner selection, innovation, offshore industry, concept design

Procedia PDF Downloads 502
1936 Investigating the Regulation System of the Synchronous Motor Excitation Mode Serving as a Reactive Power Source

Authors: Baghdasaryan Marinka, Ulikyan Azatuhi

Abstract:

The efficient usage of the compensation abilities of the electrical drive synchronous motors used in production processes can essentially improve the technical and economic indices of the process.  Reducing the flows of the reactive electrical energy due to the compensation of reactive power allows to significantly reduce the load losses of power in the electrical networks. As a result of analyzing the scientific works devoted to the issues of regulating the excitation of the synchronous motors, the need for comprehensive investigation and estimation of the excitation mode has been substantiated. By means of the obtained transmission functions, in the Simulink environment of the software package MATLAB, the transition processes of the excitation mode have been studied. As a result of obtaining and estimating the graph of the Nyquist plot and the transient process, the necessity of developing the Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) regulator has been justified. The transient processes of the system of the PID regulator have been investigated, and the amplitude–phase characteristics of the system have been estimated. The analysis of the obtained results has shown that the regulation indices of the developed system have been improved. The developed system can be successfully applied for regulating the excitation voltage of different-power synchronous motors, operating with a changing load, ensuring a value of the power coefficient close to 1.

Keywords: transition process, synchronous motor, excitation mode, regulator, reactive power

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1935 Use of GIS and Remote Sensing for Calculating the Installable Photovoltaic and Thermal Power on All the Roofs of the City of Aix-en-Provence, France

Authors: Sofiane Bourchak, Sébastien Bridier

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to show how to calculate and map solar energy’s quantity (instantaneous and accumulated global solar radiation during the year) available on roofs in the city Aix-en-Provence which has a population of 140,000 inhabitants. The result is a geographic information system (GIS) layer, which represents hourly and monthly the production of solar energy on roofs throughout the year. Solar energy professionals can use it to optimize implementations and to size energy production systems. The results are presented as a set of maps, tables and histograms in order to determine the most effective costs in Aix-en-Provence in terms of photovoltaic power (electricity) and thermal power (hot water).

Keywords: geographic information system, photovoltaic, thermal, solar potential, solar radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 418
1934 Nonlinear Response of Tall Reinforced Concrete Shear Wall Buildings under Wind Loads

Authors: Mahtab Abdollahi Sarvi, Siamak Epackachi, Ali Imanpour

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete shear walls are commonly used as the lateral load-resisting system of mid- to high-rise office or residential buildings around the world. Design of such systems is often governed by wind rather than seismic effects, in particular in low-to-moderate seismic regions. The current design philosophy as per the majority of building codes under wind loads require elastic response of lateral load-resisting systems including reinforced concrete shear walls when subjected to the rare design wind load, resulting in significantly large wall sections needed to meet strength requirements and drift limits. The latter can highly influence the design in upper stories due to stringent drift limits specified by building codes, leading to substantial added costs to the construction of the wall. However, such walls may offer limited to moderate over-strength and ductility due to their large reserve capacity provided that they are designed and detailed to appropriately develop such over-strength and ductility under extreme wind loads. This would significantly contribute to reducing construction time and costs, while maintaining structural integrity under gravity and frequently-occurring and less frequent wind events. This paper aims to investigate the over-strength and ductility capacity of several imaginary office buildings located in Edmonton, Canada with a glance at earthquake design philosophy. Selected models are 10- to 25-story buildings with three types of reinforced concrete shear wall configurations including rectangular, barbell, and flanged. The buildings are designed according to National Building Code of Canada. Then fiber-based numerical models of the walls are developed in Perform 3D and by conducting nonlinear static (pushover) analysis, lateral nonlinear behavior of the walls are evaluated. Ductility and over-strength of the structures are obtained based on the results of the pushover analyses. The results confirmed moderate nonlinear capacity of reinforced concrete shear walls under extreme wind loads. This is while lateral displacements of the walls pass the serviceability limit states defined in Pre standard for Performance-Based Wind Design (ASCE). The results indicate that we can benefit the limited nonlinear response observed in the reinforced concrete shear walls to economize the design of such systems under wind loads.

Keywords: concrete shear wall, high-rise buildings, nonlinear static analysis, response modification factor, wind load

Procedia PDF Downloads 95