Search results for: supply demand model

Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

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Collaborative planning and forecasting are the innovative and systematic approaches towards productive integration and assimilation of data synergized into information. The changing and variable market dynamics have persuaded global business chains to incorporate collaborative planning and forecasting as an imperative tool. Thus, it is essential for the supply chains to constantly improvise, update its nature, and mould as per changing global environment.

Keywords: information transfer, forecasting, optimization, supply chain management

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

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Authors: Jungyeol Hong, Dongjoo Park

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The primary purpose of this study is to develop a methodological framework to predict daily subway ridership at a station-level and to examine the association between subway ridership and bus demand incorporating commercial business facility in the vicinity of each subway station. The socio-economic characteristics, land-use, and built environment as factors may have an impact on subway ridership. However, it should be considered not only the endogenous relationship between bus and subway demand but also the characteristics of commercial business within a subway station’s sphere of influence, and integrated transit network topology. Regarding a statistical approach to estimate subway ridership at a station level, therefore it should be considered endogeneity and heteroscedastic issues which might have in the subway ridership prediction model. This study focused on both discovering the impacts of bus demand, commercial business characteristics, and network topology on subway ridership and developing more precise subway ridership estimation accounting for its statistical bias. The spatial scope of the study covers entire Seoul city in South Korea and includes 243 stations with the temporal scope set at twenty-four hours with one-hour interval time panels each. The data for subway and bus ridership was collected Seoul Smart Card data from 2015 and 2016. Three-Stage Least Square(3SLS) approach was applied to develop daily subway ridership model as capturing the endogeneity and heteroscedasticity between bus and subway demand. Independent variables incorporating in the modeling process were commercial business characteristics, social-economic characteristics, safety index, transit facility attributes, and dummies for seasons and time zone. As a result, it was found that bus ridership and subway ridership were endogenous each other and they had a significantly positive sign of coefficients which means one transit mode could increase another transportation mode’s ridership. In other words, two transit modes of subway and bus have a mutual relationship instead of the competitive relationship. The commercial business characteristics are the most critical dimension among the independent variables. The variables of commercial business facility rate in the paper containing six types; medical, educational, recreational, financial, food service, and shopping. From the model result, a higher rate in medical, financial buildings, shopping, and food service facility lead to increment of subway ridership at a station, while recreational and educational facility shows lower subway ridership. The complex network theory was applied for estimating integrated network topology measures that cover the entire Seoul transit network system, and a framework for seeking an impact on subway ridership. The centrality measures were found to be significant and showed a positive sign indicating higher centrality led to more subway ridership at a station level. The results of model accuracy tests by out of samples provided that 3SLS model has less mean square error rather than OLS and showed the methodological approach for the 3SLS model was plausible to estimate more accurate subway ridership. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (2017R1C1B2010175).

Keywords: subway ridership, bus ridership, commercial business characteristic, endogeneity, network topology

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Authors: B. Van Kessel, P. T. Kockelkorn, T. R. Speelman, T. C. Wierikx, C. Mai Van, T. A. Bogaard

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Saltwater intrusion is a common problem in estuaries around the world, as it could hinder the freshwater supply of coastal zones. This problem is likely to grow due to climate change and sea-level rise. The influence of these factors on the saltwater intrusion was investigated for the Cai River in the Khanh Hoa province in Vietnam. In addition, the Cai River has high seasonal fluctuations in discharge, leading to increased saltwater intrusion during the dry season. Sea level rise, river discharge changes, river mouth widening and a proposed saltwater intrusion prevention dam can have influences on the saltwater intrusion but have not been quantified for the Cai River estuary. This research used both an analytical and numerical model to investigate the effect of the aforementioned factors. The analytical model was based on a model proposed by Savenije and was calibrated using limited in situ data. The numerical model was a 3D hydrodynamic model made using the Delft3D4 software. The analytical model and numerical model agreed with in situ data, mostly for tidally average data. Both models indicated a roughly similar dependence on discharge, also agreeing that this parameter had the most severe influence on the modeled saltwater intrusion. Especially for discharges below 10 m/s3, the saltwater was predicted to reach further than 10 km. In the models, both sea-level rise and river widening mainly resulted in salinity increments up to 3 kg/m3 in the middle part of the river. The predicted sea-level rise in 2070 was simulated to lead to an increase of 0.5 km in saltwater intrusion length. Furthermore, the effect of the saltwater intrusion dam seemed significant in the model used, but only for the highest position of the gate.

Keywords: Cai River, hydraulic models, river discharge, saltwater intrusion, tidal barriers

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Authors: Funmilayo L. Amao, Amos O. Amao

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It has been observed that majority of the people are living in poor housing quality or totally homeless in urban center despite all governmental policies to provide housing to the public. On the supply side, various government policies in the past have been formulated towards overcoming the huge shortage through several Housing Reform Programmes. Despite these past efforts, housing continues to be a mirage to ordinary Nigerian. Currently, there are various mass housing delivery programmes such as the affordable housing scheme that utilize the Public Private Partnership effort and several Private Finance Initiative models could only provide for about 3% of the required stock. This suggests the need for a holistic solution in approaching the problem. The aim of this research is to find out the problems hindering the delivery of housing in Nigeria and its effects on housing affordability. The specific objectives are to identify the causes of housing delivery problems, to examine different housing policies over years and to suggest a way out for sustainable housing delivery. This paper also reviews the past and current housing delivery programmes in Nigeria and analyses the demand and supply side issues. It identifies the various housing delivery mechanisms in current practice. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to give you an insight into the delivery option for the sustainability of housing in Nigeria, given the existing delivery structures and the framework specified in the New National Housing Policy. The secondary data were obtained from books, journals and seminar papers. The conclusion is that we cannot copy models from other nations, but should rather evolve workable models based on our socio-cultural background to address the huge housing shortage in Nigeria. Recommendations are made in this regard.

Keywords: housing, sustainability, housing delivery, housing policy, housing affordability

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Authors: Adey Nigatu Mersha, Ilyas Masih, Charlotte de Fraiture, Tena Alamirew

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Conflicts over water are increasing mainly as a result of water scarcity in response to higher water demand and climatic variability. There is often not enough water to meet all demands for different uses. Thus, decisions have to be made as to how the available resources can be managed and utilized. Correspondingly water allocation goals, practically national water policy goals, need to be revised accordingly as the pressure on water increases from time to time. A case study is conducted in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, to assess and evaluate prioritized comprehensive water demand management options based on the framework of integrated water resources management in account of stakeholders’ knowledge and preferences as well as practical prominence within the Upper Awash Basin. Two categories of alternative management options based on policy analysis and stakeholders' consultation were evaluated against the business-as-usual scenario by using WEAP21 model as an analytical tool. Strong effects on future (unmet) demands are observed with major socio-economic assumptions and forthcoming water development plans. Water management within the basin will get more complex with further abstraction which may lead to an irreversible damage to the ecosystem. It is further confirmed through this particular study that efforts to maintain users’ preferences alone cannot insure economically viable and environmentally sound development and vice versa. There is always a tradeoff between these factors. Hence, all of these facets must be analyzed separately, related with each other in equal footing, and ultimately taken up in decision making in order for the whole system to function properly.

Keywords: water demand, water availability, WEAP21, scenarios

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Authors: Doaa M. Atia, Faten H. Fahmy, Ninet M. A. El-Rahman, Hassan T. Dorra

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In this paper, the optimum design for renewable energy system powered an aquaculture pond was determined. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software program, which is developed by U.S National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), is used for analyzing the feasibility of the stand-alone and hybrid system in this study. HOMER program determines whether renewable energy resources satisfy hourly electric demand or not. The program calculates energy balance for every 8760 hours in a year to simulate operation of the system. This optimization compares the demand for the electrical energy for each hour of the year with the energy supplied by the system for that hour and calculates the relevant energy flow for each component in the model. The essential principle is to minimize the total system cost while HOMER ensures control of the system. Moreover the feasibility analysis of the energy system is also studied. Wind speed, solar irradiance, interest rate and capacity shortage are the parameters which are taken into consideration. The simulation results indicate that the hybrid system is the best choice in this study, yielding lower net present cost. Thus, it provides higher system performance than PV or wind stand-alone systems.

Keywords: wind stand-alone system, photovoltaic stand-alone system, hybrid system, optimum system sizing, feasibility, cost analysis

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Authors: Yuang Guo, Dewancker Bart

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The primary energy consumption of buildings throughout China was approximately 814 million tons of coal equivalents in 2014, which accounts for 19.12% of China's total primary energy consumption. Also, the energy consumption of public buildings takes a bigger share than urban residential buildings and rural residential buildings among the total energy consumption. To improve the level of energy demand, various design parameters were chosen. Meanwhile, a series of simulations by Energy Plus (EP-Launch) is performed using a base case model established in Open Studio. Through the results, 16%-23% of total energy demand reductions can be found in the severe cold zone of China, and it can also provide a reference for the architectural design of other similar climate zones.

Keywords: energy consumption, design parameters, indoor thermal comfort, simulation study, severe cold climate zone

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Authors: Keith Dominic T. Li

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The soaring prices of residential properties in Hong Kong has become a social problem that even the middle class is having dif?iculties in purchasing homes. In making policies to curb the prices, it is important to determine the factors that contribute to the property in?lation. Many researches attribute this in?lation to macroeconomic factors especially the interest rate. However, it is important to remember that Hong Kong is under a Currency Board system which makes its interest rate exogenously determined. This research aims to show the signi?icance of the money supply on Hong Kong residential property prices in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Using money supply data, macroeconomic fundamentals, and demographic variables from 2000Q1 to 2013Q2, the factors contributed to residential property price in?lation are estimated to calculate the share of each explanatory variable in disparity. It is found that the Hong Kong property market is mainly driven by investment and that the in?lation on Hong Kong residential property prices can explained by the increase in the Hang Seng Index and in the money supply M2.

Keywords: real estate, Hong Kong, property market, monetary economics, monetary policy

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Authors: Salah Gariani, Islam Shyha, Fawad Inam, Dehong Huo

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A controlled cutting fluid impinging supply system (CUT-LIST) was developed to deliver an accurate amount of cutting fluid into the machining zone via well-positioned coherent nozzles based on a calculation of the heat generated. The performance of the CUT-LIST was evaluated against a conventional flood cutting fluid supply system during step shoulder milling of Ti-6Al-4V using vegetable oil-based cutting fluid. In this paper, the micro-hardness of the machined surface was used as the main criterion to compare the two systems. CUT-LIST provided significant reductions in cutting fluid consumption (up to 42%). Both systems caused increased micro-hardness value at 100 µm from the machined surface, whereas a slight reduction in micro-hardness of 4.5% was measured when using CUL-LIST. It was noted that the first 50 µm is the soft sub-surface promoted by thermal softening, whereas down to 100 µm is the hard sub-surface caused by the cyclic internal work hardening and then gradually decreased until it reached the base material nominal hardness. It can be concluded that the CUT-LIST has always given lower micro-hardness values near the machined surfaces in all conditions investigated.

Keywords: impinging supply system, micro-hardness, shoulder milling, Ti-6Al-4V, vegetable oil-based cutting fluid

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Authors: Arindam Roy

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Public policy is an intriguing terrain, which involves complex interplay of administrative, social political and economic components. There is hardly any fit-for all formulation of public policy as Lindbloom has aptly categorized it as a science of muddling through. In fact, policies are both temporally and contextually determined as one the proponents of policy sciences Harold D Lasswell has underscored it in his ‘contextual-configurative analysis’ as early as 1950s. Though, a lot of theoretical efforts have been made to make sense of this intricate dynamics of policy making, at the end of the day the applied area of public policy negates any such uniform, planned and systematic formulation. However, our policy makers seem to have learnt very little of that. Until recently, policy making was deemed as an absolutely specialized exercise to be conducted by a cadre of professionally trained seasoned mandarin. Attributes like homogeneity, impartiality, efficiency, and neutrality were considered as the watchwords of delivering common goods. Citizen or clientele was conceptualized as universal political or economic construct, to be taken care of uniformly. Moreover, policy makers usually have the proclivity to put anything into straightjacket, and to ignore the nuances therein. Hence, least attention has been given to the ground level reality, especially the socio-cultural milieu where the policy is supposed to be applied. Consequently, a substantial amount of public money goes in vain as the intended beneficiaries remain indifferent to the delivery of public policies. The present paper in the light of Reproductive Health Care policy in rural West Bengal has tried to underscore the criticality of socio-cultural factors in public health delivery. Indian health sector has traversed a long way. From a near non-existent at the time of independence, the Indian state has gradually built a country-wide network of health infrastructure. Yet it has to make a major breakthrough in terms of coverage and penetration of the health services in the rural areas. Several factors are held responsible for such state of things. These include lack of proper infrastructure, medicine, communication, ambulatory services, doctors, nursing services and trained birth attendants. Policy makers have underlined the importance of supply side in policy formulation and implementation. The successive policy documents concerning health delivery bear the testimony of it. The present paper seeks to interrogate the supply-side oriented explanations for the failure of the delivery of health services. Instead, it identified demand side to find out the answer. The state-led and bureaucratically engineered public health measures fail to engender demands as these measures mostly ignore socio-cultural nuances of health and well-being. Hence, the hiatus between supply side and demand side leads to huge wastage of revenue as health infrastructure, medicine and instruments remain unutilized in most cases. Therefore, taking proper cognizance of these factors could have streamlined the delivery of public health.

Keywords: context, policy, socio-cultural factor, uniformity

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Authors: Gabi N. Nehme

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Below-knee amputees commonly experience asymmetrical gait patterns. It is generally believed that ischemia is related to the formation of pressure sores due to uneven distribution of forces. Micro-vascular responses can reveal local malnutrition. Changes in local skin blood supply under various external loading conditions have been studied for a number of years. Radionuclide clearance, photo-plethysmography, trans-cutaneous oxygen tension along with other studies showed that the blood supply would be influenced by the epidermal forces, and the rate and the amount of blood supply would decrease with increased epidermal loads being shear forces or normal forces. Several cases of socket designs were investigated using Finite Element Model (FEM) and Design of Experiment (DOE) to increase flexibility and minimize the pressure at the limb/socket interface using ultra high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) and polyamide 6 (PA6) or Duraform. The pressure reliefs at designated areas where reducing thickness is involved are seen to be critical in determination of amputees’ comfort and are very important to clinical applications. Implementing a hole between the Patellar Tendon (PT) and Distal Tibia (DT) would decrease stiffness and increase prosthesis range of motion where flexibility is needed. In addition, displacement and prosthetic energy storage increased without compromising mechanical efficiency and prosthetic design integrity.

Keywords: patellar tendon, distal tibia, prosthetic socket relief areas, hole implementation

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Authors: Kiran P. Chadayamuri, Saransh Bagdi

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Increasing imbalance between energy supply and demand has made nations and companies involved in the energy sector to boost up their research and find suitable solutions. With the high rates at which conventional oil and gas resources are depleting, efficient exploration and exploitation of heavy oil could just be the answer. Heavy oil may be defined as crude oil having API gravity value of less than 20⁰. They are highly viscous, have low hydrogen to carbon ratios and are known to produce high carbon residues. They have high contents of asphaltenes, heavy metals, sulphur and nitrogen in them. Due to these properties extraction, transportation and refining of crude oil have its share of challenges. Lack of suitable technology has hindered its production in the past, but now things are going in a more positive direction. The aim of this paper is to study the various advantages of heavy oil, associated limitations and its feasibility as a fuel of the future.

Keywords: energy, heavy oil, fuel, future

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Authors: Karolin Bauer, Anna Brinkmann

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Vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure can cause significant difficulties for the affected population during crises. Securing the food supply as part of the critical infrastructure in crisis situations is an essential part of public services and a ground stone for a successful concept of civil protection. In most industrialized countries, there are currently no comparative studies regarding the food supply of the population during crisis and disaster events. In order to mitigate the potential impact in case of major disasters in Germany, it is absolutely necessary to investigate how the food supply can be secured. The research project aims to provide in-depth research on the experiences gathered during past large-scale disasters in the 34 OECD member countries in order to discover alternatives for an updated civil protection system in Germany. The basic research question is: "Which international approaches and structures of civil protection have been proven and would be useful to modernize the German civil protection with regards to the critical infrastructure and food supply?" Research findings should be extracted from an extensive literature review covering the entire research period as well as from personal and online-based interviews with experts and responsible persons from involved institutions. The capability of the research project insists on the deliberate choice to investigate previous large-scale disasters to formulate important and practical approaches to modernize civil protection in Germany.

Keywords: food supply, vulnerabilty, critical infratstructure, large-scale disaster

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Authors: Maharani Yulisti, Amin Mugera, James Fogarty

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Food safety standards have received significant attention in the fisheries global market due to health issues, free trade agreements, and increasing aquaculture production. Vertical coordination throughout the supply chain of fish producing and exporting countries is needed to meet food safety demands imposed by importing countries. However, the complexities of the supply chain governance structures and difficulties in standard implementation can generate safety uncertainty and high transaction costs. Using a Transaction Cost Economics framework, this paper examines the alignment between food safety standards and the governance structures in the shrimp supply chain in Indonesia. We find the supply chain is organized closer to the hierarchy-like governance structure where private standard (organic standard) are implemented and more towards a market-like governance structure where public standard (IndoGAP certification) are more prevalent. To verify the statements, two cases are examined from Sidoarjo district as a centre of shrimp production in Indonesia. The results show that public baseline FSS (Food Safety Standards) need additional mechanism to achieve a coordinated chain-wide response because uncertainty, asset specificity, and performance measurement problems are high in this chain. Organic standard as private chain-wide FSS is more efficient because it has been achieved by hierarchical-like type of governance structure.

Keywords: governance structure, shrimp value chain, food safety standards, transaction costs economics

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Authors: E. Chakwizira, D. J. Moot, M. Andrews, E. Teixeira

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Partitioning of macro-nutrients in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) plant organs have not been extensively studied, particularly for modern genotypes grown under contrasting N supply. Nutrient accumulation and partitioning of phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium and sulphur (P, K, Ca, Mg and S) were determined for six wheat genotypes [12S2-2021, 12S3-3019, 13S3-2026, Discovery, Duchess and Reliance] grown with (200 kg/ha) or without (0 kg/ha) nitrogen (N), in a fully irrigated field experiment in 2017-18 season at Lincoln, New Zealand. Data were collected at three growth stages (GS): tillering (GS21), anthesis (GS60) and grain maturity (GS92). Grain yield varied with both N and genotype; from 6-7.5 t/ha for the 0 kg N/ha crops and 8.1-9.3 t/ha for the 200 kg N/ha treatments. Plant nutrient uptake at maturity responded to both N supply and genotype for all nutrients, except S which did not differ among the genotypes. For example, total P uptake averaged 13.5 (12.4-14.3) kg/ha for the 0 kg N/ha treatments and 17.8 (15.1-19.7) kg/ha when 200 kg N/ha was applied. Similarly, K uptake increased from an average of 23 (21.6-25.3) for the 0 kg N/ha treatments to 34.3 (32.4-40.8) kg/ha when 200 kg N/ha was applied. Similar trends were observed for Ca and Mg. The S content only responded to N supply but not to genotype, increasing from 7.9 kg/ha for the 0 kg N treatments to 12.8 kg/ha when 200 kg N was applied. Relative nutrient content at anthesis compared with those at maturity were 30% for P, 100% for both K and Ca and 34% of Mg. Sulphur content at anthesis decreased 29% with N supply and was highest for genotypes 12S2-2021 compared with the other five genotype. At grain maturity, the ratio of nutrients in grain to total plant nutrient, defined as the nutrient harvest index (NHI) varied with both N supply and genotype. Averaged across treatments, the NHI was 0.96 for P, 0.53 for K, 0.58 for Ca, 0.90 for Mg and 0.85 for S. These results suggest that Ca and K should be provided earlier in the season as there is limited or no uptake after anthesis. These results also show that Ca and K are important for structural functions, while P, Mg and S are remobilised to the grains and become important for quality.

Keywords: anthesis, genotype, nutrient harvests index, NHI, Triticum aestivum L.

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: E. Neidhardt

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Mobility is not only an aspect of personal freedom, but for many people mobility is also a requirement to be able to satisfy the needs of daily life. They must buy food, get to work, or go to the doctor. Many people are dependent on public transport to satisfy their needs. Especially in rural areas with a low population density this is difficult. In these areas it is often not cost-effective to provide public transport with sufficient coverage and frequency. Therefore, the available public transport is unattractive. As a result, people use their own car, which is not desirable from a sustainable point of view. Children and some elderly people also do not have this option. Sometimes people organize themselves and volunteer transport services are created, which function similarly to the demand-oriented taxis. With a platform for demand-oriented transport, we want to make the available public transport more usable and attractive by linking scheduled transport with voluntary transport services.

Keywords: demand-oriented, HubChain, living lab, public transport

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Authors: A. S. Zgalei, B. T. Al-Mabrouk

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With a particularly significant growth rate observed in the Libyan commercial and residential buildings coupled with a growth in energy demand, solar desiccant evaporative cooling offers energy savings and promises a good sharing for sustainable buildings where the availability of solar radiation matches with the cooling load demand. The paper presents a short introduction for the desiccant systems. A mathematical model of a selected system has been developed and a simulation has been performed in order to investigate the system performance at different working conditions and an optimum design of the system structure is established. The results showed a technical feasibility of the system working under the Libyan climatic conditions with a reasonable COP at temperatures that can be obtained through the solar reactivation system. Discussion of the results and the recommendations for future work are proposed.

Keywords: computer program, solar desiccant wheel cooling, system modelling, simulation, technical feasibility

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Authors: Mehdi Naserian, Mohammad Jooshaki, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, Ashknaz Oraee

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In recent years, the development of communication infrastructure and smart meters have facilitated the utilization of demand-side resources which can enhance stability and economic efficiency of power systems. Direct load control programs can play an important role in the utilization of demand-side resources in the residential sector. However, investments required for installing control equipment can be a limiting factor in the development of such demand response programs. Thus, selection of consumers with higher potentials is crucial to the success of a direct load control program. Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, which due to the heat capacity of buildings feature relatively high flexibility, make up a major part of household consumption. Considering that the consumption of HVAC systems depends highly on the ambient temperature and bearing in mind the high investments required for control systems enabling direct load control demand response programs, in this paper, a recent solution is presented to uncover consumers with high air conditioner demand among large number of consumers and to measure the demand response potential of such consumers. This can pave the way for estimating the investments needed for the implementation of direct load control programs for residential HVAC systems and for estimating the demand response potentials in a distribution system. In doing so, we first cluster consumers into several groups based on the correlation coefficients between hourly consumption data and hourly temperature data using K-means algorithm. Then, by applying a recent algorithm to the hourly consumption and temperature data, consumers with high air conditioner consumption are identified. Finally, demand response potential of such consumers is estimated based on the equivalent desired temperature setpoint changes.

Keywords: communication infrastructure, smart meters, power systems, HVAC system, residential HVAC systems

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Authors: Ryota Kuzuki, Mitsuhiro Kohara, Noboru Kizuki, Satoshi Yoshida, Hidetaka Hirai, Yuta Nezasa

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About fifty years have passed since Japan's gas supply industry became the first in the world to switch from coal and oil to LNG as a city gas feedstock. Since the Japanese government target of net-zero carbon emission in 2050 was announced in October 2020, it has now entered a new era of challenges to commit to the requirement for decarbonization. This paper describes the situation that synthetic methane, produced from renewable energy-derived hydrogen and recycled carbon, is a promising national policy of transition toward net-zero society. In November 2020, the Japan Gas Association announced the 'Carbon Neutral Challenge 2050' as a vision to contribute to the decarbonization of society by converting the city gas supply to carbon neutral. The key technologies is methanation. This paper shows that methanation is a realistic solution to contribute to the decarbonization of the whole country at a lower social cost, utilizing the supply chain that already exists, from LNG plants to burner chips. The challenges during the transition period (2030-2050), as CO2 captured from exhaust of thermal power plants and industrial factories are expected to be used, it is proposed that a system of guarantee of origin (GO) for H2 and CO2 should be established and harmonize international rules for calculating and allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the supply chain, a platform is also needed to manage tracking information on certified environmental values.

Keywords: synthetic methane, recycled carbon fuels, methanation, transition period, environmental value transfer platform

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Authors: Alina Gilmanova

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China’s dependency on coal for energy is causing pollution in China and abroad. To supply the increasing energy demand and being under the pressure from international society to reduce the emissions, China was pushed to develop renewable energy. The increasing subsidies in Renewable energy sources (RES) led not only to the price-cutting but also affecting the international trade in green technology sector. In order to evaluate the role of RES in foreign policy of China, I am going to give an (i) overview of RES development in China and examine the cooperation between China and (ii) developed, (ii) developing and emerging countries. The conclusive remarks are intended to address the question of how the present Chinese renewable energy development is impacting its foreign policy and international society.

Keywords: renewable energy, China, foreign affairs, brics, cooperation

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Authors: Amidu Owolabi Ayeni

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Studies have shown that spatio-temporal distribution and variability of climatic variables, urban land use, and population have had substantial impact on water supply. It is based on these facts that the impacts of climate, urbanization, and population on water supply in Lagos State Nigeria remain the focus of this study. Population and water production data on Lagos State between 1963 and 2006 were collected, and used for time series and projection analyses. Multi-temporal land-sat images of 1975, 1995 and NigeriaSat-1 imagery of 2007 were used for land use change analysis. The population of Lagos State increased by about 557.1% between 1963 and 2006, correspondingly, safe water supply increased by 554%. Currently, 60% of domestic water use in urban areas of Lagos State is from groundwater while 75% of rural water is from unsafe surface water. Between 1975 and 2007, urban land use increased by about 235.9%. The 46years climatic records revealed that temperature and evaporation decreased slightly while rainfall and Relatively Humidity (RH) decreased consistently. Based on these trends, the Lagos State population and required water are expected to increase to about 19.8millions and 2418.9ML/D respectively by the year 2026. Rainfall is likely to decrease by -6.68mm while temperature will increase by 0.950C by 2026. Urban land use is expected to increase by 20% with expectation of serious congestion in the suburb areas. With these results, over 50% of the urban inhabitants will be highly water poor in future if the trends continue unabated.

Keywords: challenges, climate change, urbanization, water supply

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Authors: Tugba Gurler, Irfan Kurtbas

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Roof influences considerably energy demand of buildings. In order to reduce this energy demand, various solutions have been proposed, such as roofs with variable thermal insulation, cool roofs, green roofs, heat exchangers and ventilated roofs, and phase change material (PCM) layered roofs. PCMs suffer from relatively low thermal conductivity despite of their promise of the energy-efficiency initiatives for thermal energy storage (TES). This study not only presents the thermal performance of the concrete roof with PCM layers but also evaluates the products with different design configurations and thicknesses under Central Anatolia Region, Turkey and Nottinghamshire, UK weather conditions. System design limitations and proposed prediction models are discussed in this study. A two-dimensional numerical model has been developed, and governing equations have been solved at each time step. Upper surfaces of the roofs have been modelled with heat flux conditions, while lower surfaces of the roofs with boundary conditions. In addition, suitable roofs have been modeled under symmetry boundary conditions. The results of the designed concrete roofs with PCM layers have been compared with common concrete roofs in Turkey. The UK and the numerical modeling results have been validated with the data given in the literature.

Keywords: phase change material, regional energy demand, roof layers, thermal energy storage

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Authors: E. Behmanesh, J. Pannek

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The distribution-allocation problem is known as one of the most comprehensive strategic decision. In real-world cases, it is impossible to solve a distribution-allocation problem in traditional ways with acceptable time. Hence researchers develop efficient non-traditional techniques for the large-term operation of the whole supply chain. These techniques provide near-optimal solutions particularly for large scales test problems. This paper, presents an integrated supply chain model which is flexible in the delivery path. As the solution methodology, we apply a memetic algorithm with a novelty in population presentation. To illustrate the performance of the proposed memetic algorithm, LINGO optimization software serves as a comparison basis for small size problems. In large size cases that we are dealing with in the real world, the Genetic algorithm as the second metaheuristic algorithm is considered to compare the results and show the efficiency of the memetic algorithm.

Keywords: integrated logistics network, flexible path, memetic algorithm, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Dagnew Dessie Mengie

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate German tourists' demand for Ethiopian tourism destinations. The author has made every effort to identify the differences in the preferences of German visitors’ demand in Ethiopia comparing with Egypt, Kenya, Tanzania, and South African tourism sectors if they are invited to visit at the same time. However, the demand for international tourism for Ethiopia currently lags behind these African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government and tour and travel operators need to understand the important factors that affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian tourist destinations. The aim of this study was to analyze German Tourists’ Demand for Ethiopian destinations. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for German tourists’ preference for Ethiopian tourist destinations compared to the above-mentioned African countries. For collecting and analysing data for this study, both quantitative and qualitative methods of research are being used in this study. The most significant data are collected by using the primary data collection method i.e. survey and interviews which are the most and large number of potential responses and feedback from nine German active tourists,12 Ethiopian tourism officials, four African embassies, and four well functioning private tour companies and secondary data collected from books, journals, previous research and electronic websites. Based on the data analysis of the information gathered from interviews and questionnaires, the study disclosed that the majority of German tourists do have not that high demand for Ethiopian Tourist destinations due to the following reasons: (1) Many Germans are fascinated by adventures and safari and simply want to lie on the beach and relax. These interests have leaded them to look for other African countries which have these accesses. (2) Uncomfortable infrastructure and transport problems are attributed to the decreasing number of German tourists in the country. (3) Inadequate marketing operation of the Ethiopian Tourism Authority and its delegates in advertising and clarifying the above irregularities which are raised by the tourists.

Keywords: environmental benefits of tourism, social benefits of tourism, economic benefits of tourism, political factors on tourism

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Authors: Mohit Tyagi, Pradeep Kumar

Abstract:

The objective of this research work is to identify and analyze the significant corporate social responsibility (CSR) practices with an aim to improve the supply chain performance of automobile industry located at National Capital Region (NCR) of India. To achieve the objective, 6 CSR practices have been considered and analyzed using expert’s preference rating (EPR) approach. The considered CSR practices are namely, Top management and employee awareness about CSR (P₁), Employee involvement in social and environmental problems (P₂), Protection of human rights (P₃), Waste reduction, energy saving and water conservation (P₄), Proper visibility of CSR guidelines (P₅) and Broad perception towards CSR initiatives (P₆). The outcomes of this research may help mangers in decision making processes and framing polices for SCP implementation under CSR context.

Keywords: supply chain performance, corporate social responsibility, CSR practices, expert’s preference rating approach

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Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

Abstract:

Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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Authors: Vytautas Galvanauskas, Vykantas Grincas, Rimvydas Simutis

Abstract:

This paper investigates a possible practical solution for reasonable oxygen supply during the pluripotent stem cells expansion processes, where the stem cells propagate as aggregates in stirred-suspension bioreactors. Low glucose and low oxygen concentrations are preferred for efficient proliferation of pluripotent stem cells. However, strong oxygen limitation, especially inside of cell aggregates, can lead to cell starvation and death. In this research, the oxygen concentration profile inside of stem cell aggregates in a stem cell expansion process was predicted using a modified oxygen diffusion model. This profile can be realized during the stem cells cultivation process by manipulating the oxygen concentration in inlet gas or inlet gas flow. The proposed approach is relatively simple and may be attractive for installation in a real pluripotent stem cell expansion processes.

Keywords: aggregated stem cells, dissolved oxygen profiles, modeling, stirred-tank, 3D expansion

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Authors: Alireza Abbassi Monjezi, Mohammad Hasan Shaheed

Abstract:

Flood, caused by excessive rainfall, monsoon, cyclone and tsunami is a common disaster in many countries of the world especially sea connected low-lying countries. A stand-alone self-powered water filtration module for decontamination of floodwater has been designed and modeled. A combination forward osmosis – low pressure reverse osmosis (FO-LPRO) system powered by solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) energy is investigated which could overcome the main barriers to water supply for remote areas and ensure off-grid filtration. The proposed system is designed to be small scale and portable to provide on-site potable water to communities that are no longer themselves mobile nor can be reached quickly by the aid agencies. FO is an osmotically driven process that uses osmotic pressure gradients to drive water across a controlled pore membrane from a feed solution (low osmotic pressure) to a draw solution (high osmotic pressure). This drops the demand for high hydraulic pressures and therefore the energy demand. There is also a tendency for lower fouling, easier fouling layer removal and higher water recovery. In addition, the efficiency of the PVT unit will be maximized through freshwater cooling which is integrated into the system. A filtration module with the capacity of 5 m3/day is modeled to treat floodwater and provide drinking water. The module can be used as a tool for disaster relief, particularly in the aftermath of flood and tsunami events.

Keywords: flood resilience, membrane desalination, portable water treatment, solar energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 288