Search results for: causal realtion extraction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2316

Search results for: causal realtion extraction

1536 Inhibition of Variant Surface Glycoproteins Translation to Define the Essential Features of the Variant Surface Glycoprotein in Trypanosoma brucei

Authors: Isobel Hambleton, Mark Carrington

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Trypanosoma brucei, the causal agent of a range of diseases in humans and livestock, evades the mammalian immune system through a population survival strategy based on the expression of a series of antigenically distinct variant surface glycoproteins (VSGs). RNAi mediated knockdown of the active VSG gene triggers a precytokinesis cell cycle arrest. To determine whether this phenotype is the result of reduced VSG transcript or depleted VSG protein, we used morpholino antisense oligonucleotides to block translation of VSG mRNA. The same precytokinesis cell cycle arrest was observed, suggesting that VSG protein abundance is monitored closely throughout the cell cycle. An inducible expression system has been developed to test various GPI-anchored proteins for their ability to rescue this cell cycle arrest. This system has been used to demonstrate that wild-type VSG expressed from a T7 promoter rescues this phenotype. This indicates that VSG expression from one of the specialised bloodstream expression sites (BES) is not essential for cell division. The same approach has been used to define the minimum essential features of a VSG necessary for function.

Keywords: bloodstream expression site, morpholino, precytokinesis cell cycle arrest, variant surface glycoprotein

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1535 The Influences of Accountants’ Potential Performance on Their Working Process: Government Savings Bank, Northeast, Thailand

Authors: Prateep Wajeetongratana

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The purpose of this research was to study the influence of accountants’ potential performance on their working process, a case study of Government Savings Banks in the northeast of Thailand. The independent variables included accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting value, accounting ethics, and accounting attitude, while the dependent variable included the success of the working process. A total of 155 accountants working for Government Savings Banks were selected by random sampling. A questionnaire was used as a tool for collecting data. Descriptive statistics in this research included percentage, mean, and multiple regression analyses. The findings revealed that the majority of accountants were female with an age between 35-40 years old. Most of the respondents had an undergraduate degree with ten years of experience. Moreover, the factors of accounting knowledge, accounting skill, accounting a value and accounting ethics and accounting attitude were rated at a high level. The findings from regression analysis of observation data revealed a causal relationship in that the observation data could explain at least 51 percent of the success in the accountants’ working process.

Keywords: influence, potential performance, success, working process

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1534 Design of IMC-PID Controller Cascaded Filter for Simplified Decoupling Control System

Authors: Le Linh, Truong Nguyen Luan Vu, Le Hieu Giang

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In this work, the IMC-PID controller cascaded filter based on Internal Model Control (IMC) scheme is systematically proposed for the simplified decoupling control system. The simplified decoupling is firstly introduced for multivariable processes by using coefficient matching to obtain a stable, proper, and causal simplified decoupler. Accordingly, transfer functions of decoupled apparent processes can be expressed as a set of n equivalent independent processes and then derived as a ratio of the original open-loop transfer function to the diagonal element of the dynamic relative gain array. The IMC-PID controller in series with filter is then directly employed to enhance the overall performance of the decoupling control system while avoiding difficulties arising from properties inherent to simplified decoupling. Some simulation studies are considered to demonstrate the simplicity and effectiveness of the proposed method. Simulations were conducted by tuning various controllers of the multivariate processes with multiple time delays. The results indicate that the proposed method consistently performs well with fast and well-balanced closed-loop time responses.

Keywords: coefficient matching method, internal model control (IMC) scheme, PID controller cascaded filter, simplified decoupler

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1533 Antioxidant Activity, Total Phenolic Contents and Functional Group Identification of Leaf Extracts among Lemongrass (Cymbopogon Citratus) Accessions

Authors: Oyenike A. Adeyemo, Elizabeth Osibote, Adeyemi Adedugba, Olatunde A. Bhadmus, Adeoluwa A. Adeoshun, Mariam O. Allison

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Lemongrass leaves are widely used for tea and the treatment of malaria. The present study used Soxhlet extraction with aqueous ethanol (v/v). Fresh and dried leaves of selected ten lemongrasses (Cymbopogon citratus) accessions from different geographical regions in Nigeria were examined for total phenolic contents, and antioxidant activities. Aqueous methanol extraction was carried out and further partitioned into hexane, ethyl acetate, and butanol to obtain fractions according to their polarities. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) was carried out to identify the functional groups that may be present. Among the ten accessions, the leaf extracts at five different concentrations exhibited increasing antioxidant activities using DPPH (2,2-diphenyl- 1- picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging test, stronger activities for dried leaves (71.15 ± 0.14 - 89.79 ± 0.16µg/ml) than fresh leaves (71.65 ± 0.45 -81.94 ± 0.84 µg/ml) at 100 µg/ml of sample extract. The total phenolic contents of dried leaf extracts revealed higher amounts in all lines ranging from 19.57±0.57 to 43.17±0.67mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g DW when compared with fresh leaf extracts, where the values ranged from 9.68 ± 2.20 to 28.5 ± 3.90 mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g fresh weight except for two lines which showed greater total phenolic contents than in the dried leaves. High total phenolic content may help contribute to the overall high antioxidant activity of the plant. FTIR identified the presence of major active functional groups including alcohol, ester, amide, alkanes, alkenes, carboxylic acid, ketones, and aldehyde in four partitioning solvents (n-hexane, ethyl acetate, butanol, and methanol) leaf extracts of lemongrass samples.Lemongrass leaves are widely used for tea and the treatment of malaria. The present study used Soxhlet extraction with aqueous ethanol (v/v). Fresh and dried leaves of selected ten lemongrasses (Cymbopogon citratus) accessions from different geographical regions in Nigeria were examined for total phenolic contents, and antioxidant activities. Aqueous methanol extraction was carried out and further partitioned into hexane, ethyl acetate, and butanol to obtain fractions according to their polarities. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) was carried out to identify the functional groups that may be present. Among the ten accessions, the leaf extracts at five different concentrations exhibited increasing antioxidant activities using DPPH (2,2-diphenyl- 1- picrylhydrazyl) radical scavenging test, stronger activities for dried leaves (71.15 ± 0.14 - 89.79 ± 0.16µg/ml) than fresh leaves (71.65 ± 0.45 -81.94 ± 0.84 µg/ml) at 100 µg/ml of sample extract. The total phenolic contents of dried leaf extracts revealed higher amounts in all lines ranging from 19.57±0.57 to 43.17±0.67mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g DW when compared with fresh leaf extracts, where the values ranged from 9.68 ± 2.20 to 28.5 ± 3.90 mg gallic acid equivalent /100 g fresh weight except for two lines which showed greater total phenolic contents than in the dried leaves. High total phenolic content may help contribute to the overall high antioxidant activity of the plant. FTIR identified the presence of major active functional groups including alcohol, ester, amide, alkanes, alkenes, carboxylic acid, ketones, and aldehyde in four partitioning solvents (n-hexane, ethyl acetate, butanol, and methanol) leaf extracts of lemongrass samples.

Keywords: antioxidant acivity, phenolic content, natural product, FTIR

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1532 Poz and Play: Exploring the Effectiveness of the Online Teleserye 'Mga Batang Poz' in Influencing the Reproductive Health Practices of Filipino Teenagers

Authors: Arlan Jay Jondonero

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The study explores the potential of teleseryes in improving the reproductive health practices of its Filipino teenage viewers. This includes the identification of the elements of teleseryes and the conditions that make it suitable for teleseryes to influence the practices of its viewers, as well as the assessment of how the Sabido methodology was applied in other countries to see if it can be applied in the Philippine context. It discusses the historical context of teleseryes in the Philippines, which are now in the online digital media platform. The study recognizes the role of the social cognitive theory and dramatic theory in a viewer’s acquisition of better reproductive health practices and evaluates if these theories can be applied in the Philippine context. Using the quasi-experimental approach, the study aims to determine if there is a causal relationship between how the online teleserye “Mga Batang Poz” is perceived by the Filipino teenage audience through its characters and storylines and the development of the audience’s knowledge, perceptions, and behaviors surrounding HIV/AIDS. The study looked into the components of the teleserye that made it relatable to the Filipino youth, as well as factors that should be taken into consideration to significantly influence the reproductive health practices of the Filipino youth.

Keywords: entertainment-education, HIV, quasi-experimental, Sabido methodology, teleserye

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1531 Empirical Decomposition of Time Series of Power Consumption

Authors: Noura Al Akkari, Aurélie Foucquier, Sylvain Lespinats

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Load monitoring is a management process for energy consumption towards energy savings and energy efficiency. Non Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) is one method of load monitoring used for disaggregation purposes. NILM is a technique for identifying individual appliances based on the analysis of the whole residence data retrieved from the main power meter of the house. Our NILM framework starts with data acquisition, followed by data preprocessing, then event detection, feature extraction, then general appliance modeling and identification at the final stage. The event detection stage is a core component of NILM process since event detection techniques lead to the extraction of appliance features. Appliance features are required for the accurate identification of the household devices. In this research work, we aim at developing a new event detection methodology with accurate load disaggregation to extract appliance features. Time-domain features extracted are used for tuning general appliance models for appliance identification and classification steps. We use unsupervised algorithms such as Dynamic Time Warping (DTW). The proposed method relies on detecting areas of operation of each residential appliance based on the power demand. Then, detecting the time at which each selected appliance changes its states. In order to fit with practical existing smart meters capabilities, we work on low sampling data with a frequency of (1/60) Hz. The data is simulated on Load Profile Generator software (LPG), which was not previously taken into consideration for NILM purposes in the literature. LPG is a numerical software that uses behaviour simulation of people inside the house to generate residential energy consumption data. The proposed event detection method targets low consumption loads that are difficult to detect. Also, it facilitates the extraction of specific features used for general appliance modeling. In addition to this, the identification process includes unsupervised techniques such as DTW. To our best knowledge, there exist few unsupervised techniques employed with low sampling data in comparison to the many supervised techniques used for such cases. We extract a power interval at which falls the operation of the selected appliance along with a time vector for the values delimiting the state transitions of the appliance. After this, appliance signatures are formed from extracted power, geometrical and statistical features. Afterwards, those formed signatures are used to tune general model types for appliances identification using unsupervised algorithms. This method is evaluated using both simulated data on LPG and real-time Reference Energy Disaggregation Dataset (REDD). For that, we compute performance metrics using confusion matrix based metrics, considering accuracy, precision, recall and error-rate. The performance analysis of our methodology is then compared with other detection techniques previously used in the literature review, such as detection techniques based on statistical variations and abrupt changes (Variance Sliding Window and Cumulative Sum).

Keywords: general appliance model, non intrusive load monitoring, events detection, unsupervised techniques;

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1530 Coronin 1C and miR-128A as Potential Diagnostic Biomarkers for Glioblastoma Multiform

Authors: Denis Mustafov, Emmanouil Karteris, Maria Braoudaki

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Glioblastoma multiform (GBM) is a heterogenous primary brain tumour that kills most affected patients. To the authors best knowledge, despite all research efforts there is no early diagnostic biomarker for GBM. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNA molecules which are deregulated in many cancers. The aim of this research was to determine miRNAs with a diagnostic impact and to potentially identify promising therapeutic targets for glioblastoma multiform. In silico analysis was performed to identify deregulated miRNAs with diagnostic relevance for glioblastoma. The expression profiles of the chosen miRNAs were then validated in vitro in the human glioblastoma cell lines A172 and U-87MG. Briefly, RNA extraction was carried out using the Trizol method, whilst miRNA extraction was performed using the mirVANA miRNA isolation kit. Quantitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction was performed to verify their expression. The presence of five target proteins within the A172 cell line was evaluated by Western blotting. The expression of the CORO1C protein within 32 GBM cases was examined via immunohistochemistry. The miRNAs identified in silico included miR-21-5p, miR-34a and miR-128a. These miRNAs were shown to target deregulated GBM genes, such as CDK6, E2F3, BMI1, JAG1, and CORO1C. miR-34a and miR-128a showed low expression profiles in comparison to a control miR-RNU-44 in both GBM cell lines suggesting tumour suppressor properties. Opposing, miR-21-5p demonstrated greater expression indicating that it could potentially function as an oncomiR. Western blotting revealed expression of all five proteins within the A172 cell line. In silico analysis also suggested that CORO1C is a target of miR-128a and miR-34a. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated that 75% of the GBM cases showed moderate to high expression of CORO1C protein. Greater understanding of the deregulated expression of miR-128a and the upregulation of CORO1C in GBM could potentially lead to the identification of a promising diagnostic biomarker signature for glioblastomas.

Keywords: non-coding RNAs, gene expression, brain tumours, immunohistochemistry

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1529 How to Teach Italian Intransitive Verbs: Focusing on Unaccusatives and Unergatives

Authors: Joung Hyoun Lee

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Intransitive verbs consist of two subclasses called unergatives and unaccusatives. However, traditionally Italian intransitive verbs have been taught regardless their semantic distinctions and any mention of grammatical terms such as unaccusatives and unergatives even though there is a huge gap between them. This paper aims to explore the teaching of Italian intransitive verbs categorizing them into unaccusatives and unergatives, which is compared with researches on the teaching of English unaccusative and unergative verbs. For this purpose, first, the study analyses various aspects of English vs. Italian unergatives and unaccusatives, and their properties of the constructions. Next, this study highlights the research trend on Korean students' learning errors, which is leaning toward causal analyses of the over passivization of English unaccusative verbs. In order to investigate these issues, 53 students of the Busan University of Foreign Studies, who are studying Italian language as a second language, were surveyed through a grammaticality judgment test divided into 9 sections. As expected, the findings confirmed that the test results of Italian unaccusatives and unergatives showed similar and different aspects comparing to those of English. Moreover, there was a highly affirmative demand for a more careful way of teaching which should be considered both syntactically and semantically according to the grammatical items. The research provides a framework of a more effective and systematic teaching method of Italian intransitive verbs for further research.

Keywords: unaccusative verbs, unergative verbs, agent, patient, theme, overpassivization

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1528 The Influence of Transformational Leadership on Knowledge Sharing in Iraq’s Public and Private Higher Education: A Comparison Study

Authors: Sawsan J. Al-Husseini

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Transformational leadership (TL) has been found to have an important influence on knowledge and knowledge management (KM). It can contribute to organizational learning, employees’ creativity, encourage followers to participate in educational programs and develop the skills needed to achieve exceptional performance. This research sought to examine the impact of TL on knowledge donating and collecting and the differences between these impacts in public and private higher education institutes (HEIs) in Iraq. A mixed method approach was taken and 580 valid responses were collected to test the causal relationships between the factors, then 12 interviews were conducted with the leaders of HEIs to give more insight of the findings from quantitative stage. Employing structural equation modelling with AMOS v.24, the research found that TL would be ideal in an educational context, promoting knowledge sharing activities in both sectors. The interviews revealed differences between public and private HEIs in terms of the effects relationships. Guidelines are developed for academics as well as leaders and provided evidence to support the use of TL to encourage knowledge sharing activities within higher education in developing countries particularly Iraq.

Keywords: transformational leadership, knowledge sharing, higher education, multi-group

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1527 Phytoremediation of Arsenic-Contaminated Soil and Recovery of Valuable Arsenic Products

Authors: Valentine C. Eze, Adam P. Harvey

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Contamination of groundwater and soil by heavy metals and metalloids through anthropogenic activities and natural occurrence poses serious environmental challenges globally. A possible solution to this problem is through phytoremediation of the contaminants using hyper-accumulating plants. Conventional phytoremediation treats the contaminated hyper-accumulator biomass as a waste stream which adds no value to the heavy metal(loid)s decontamination process. This study investigates strategies for remediation of soil contaminated with arsenic and the extractive chemical routes for recovery of arsenic and phosphorus from the hyper-accumulator biomass. Pteris cretica ferns species were investigated for their uptake of arsenic from soil containing 200 ± 3ppm of arsenic. The Pteris cretica ferns were shown to be capable of hyper-accumulation of arsenic, with maximum accumulations of about 4427 ± 79mg to 4875 ± 96mg of As per kg of the dry ferns. The arsenic in the Pteris cretica fronds was extracted into various solvents, with extraction efficiencies of 94.3 ± 2.1% for ethanol-water (1:1 v/v), 81.5 ± 3.2% for 1:1(v/v) methanol-water, and 70.8 ± 2.9% for water alone. The recovery efficiency of arsenic from the molybdic acid complex process 90.8 ± 5.3%. Phosphorus was also recovered from the molybdic acid complex process at 95.1 ± 4.6% efficiency. Quantitative precipitation of Mg₃(AsO₄)₂ and Mg₃(PO₄)₂ occurred in the treatment of the aqueous solutions of arsenic and phosphorus after stripping at pH of 8 – 10. The amounts of Mg₃(AsO₄)₂ and Mg₃(PO₄)₂ obtained were 96 ± 7.2% for arsenic and 94 ± 3.4% for phosphorus. The arsenic nanoparticles produced from the Mg₃(AsO₄)₂ recovered from the biomass have the average particles diameter of 45.5 ± 11.3nm. A two-stage reduction process – a first step pre-reduction of As(V) to As(III) with L-cysteine, followed by NaBH₄ reduction of the As(III) to As(0), was required to produced arsenic nanoparticles from the Mg₃(AsO₄)₂. The arsenic nanoparticles obtained are potentially valuable for medical applications, while the Mg₃(AsO₄)₂ could be used as an insecticide. The phosphorus contents of the Pteris cretica biomass was recovered as phosphomolybdic acid complex and converted to Mg₃(PO₄)₂, which could be useful in productions of fertilizer. Recovery of these valuable products from phytoremediation biomass would incentivize and drive commercial industries’ participation in remediation of contaminated lands.

Keywords: phytoremediation, Pteris cretica, hyper-accumulator, solvent extraction, molybdic acid process, arsenic nanoparticles

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1526 Extraction and Quantification of Triclosan in Wastewater Samples Using Molecularly Imprinted Membrane Adsorbent

Authors: Siyabonga Aubrey Mhlongo, Linda Lunga Sibali, Phumlane Selby Mdluli, Peter Papoh Ndibewu, Kholofelo Clifford Malematja

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This paper reports on the successful extraction and quantification of an antibacterial and antifungal agent present in some consumer products (Triclosan: C₁₂H₇Cl₃O₂)generally found in wastewater or effluents using molecularly imprinted membrane adsorbent (MIMs) followed by quantification and removal on a high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Triclosan is an antibacterial and antifungal agent present in some consumer products like toothpaste, soaps, detergents, toys, and surgical cleaning treatments. The MIMs was fabricated usingpolyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) polymer with selective micro composite particles known as molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs)via a phase inversion by immersion precipitation technique. This resulted in an improved hydrophilicity and mechanical behaviour of the membranes. Wastewater samples were collected from the Umbogintwini Industrial Complex (UIC) (south coast of Durban, KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa). central UIC effluent treatment plant and pre-treated before analysis. Experimental parameters such as sample size, contact time, stirring speed were optimised. The resultant MIMs had an adsorption efficiency of 97% of TCS with reference to NIMs and bare membrane, which had 92%, 88%, respectively. The analytical method utilized in this review had limits of detection (LoD) and limits of quantification (LoQ) of 0.22, 0.71µgL-1 in wastewater effluent, respectively. The percentage recovery for the effluent samples was 68%. The detection of TCS was monitored for 10 consecutive days, where optimum TCS traces detected in the treated wastewater was 55.0μg/L inday 9 of the monitored days, while the lowest detected was 6.0μg/L. As the concentrations of analytefound in effluent water samples were not so diverse, this study suggested that MIMs could be the best potential adsorbent for the development and continuous progress in membrane technologyand environmental sciences, lending its capability to desalination.

Keywords: molecularly imprinted membrane, triclosan, phase inversion, wastewater

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1525 Characteristics of Phytophthora infestans: The Causal Fungus of Potato Late Blight Disease

Authors: A. E. Elkorany, Eman Elsrgawy

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Eighty six isolates of Phytophthora infestans dating back to 2006 were recovered from potato tubers that were on sale in Alexandria markets, Egypt. The isolates were characterized for mating type and colony morphology. Both A1 and A2 mating types were detected in the isolate collection, however, the A2 constituted 5.8% of the total isolates made while the A1 mating type isolates constituted 91.9%. The self-fertile phenotype was also detected but at a lower percentage of 2.3% of the total isolates. This indicated that Mexico, the probable origin of the disease, is no longer the only place where A2 mating type ever exists. The lumpy phenotype was the only trait observed linked to the A2 mating type isolates on rye A agar medium. The self-fertile isolates, however, exhibited colonies of a waxy appearance with little aerial hyphae and the culture were backed full with oospores. The A1 mating colonies were of smooth white abundant aerial hyphae. The metalaxyl resistant isolates were also detected among the analyzed isolates and constituted 4.6% of the total (86) isolates investigated. The appearance of the A2 mating type outside Mexico and the variation revealed in the population of Phytophthora infestans investigated supported the hypothesis of a second worldwide migration of the fungus from its origin which could constitute a threat to potato cultivation around the world.

Keywords: Phytophthora infestans, potato, Egypt, fungus

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1524 Understanding the Complex Relationship Between Economic Independency and Intimate Partner Violence by Applying a Socio-Ecological Analysis Framework

Authors: Suzanne Bouma

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In the Netherlands, the assumed causal relationship between employment, economic independence and individual freedom of choice has been extended to the approach of intimate partner violence (IPV). In the interests of combating IPV, it is crucial to further investigate this relationship. Based on a literature review, this article shows that the relationship between economic independence and IPV is highly complex. To unravel this complex relationship, a socio-ecological analysis framework has been applied. First, it is a layered relation, in where employment does not necessarily lead to economic independence, which can be explained by social inequalities. Second, the relation is bidirectional, where women do not by definition have access to their own financial recourses due to tactics of financial control by the intimate partner. This reveals the coexistence of IPV and economic abuse and the extent to which an intimate relationship affects the scope for individual choice. Third, there is a paradoxical relationship in which employment is both a protective and risk factor for IPV. This, in turn, cannot be separated from traditional norms about masculinity and femininity, where men occupy a position of power and derive status from being the breadwinner. These findings imply that not only the approach to IPV but also the labor market policy requires a gender-sensitive approach.

Keywords: intimate partner violence, economic independence, literature review, socio-ecological analysis framework

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1523 Rainwater Management in Smart City: Focus in Gomti Nagar Region, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India

Authors: Priyanka Yadav, Rajkumar Ghosh, Alok Saini

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Human civilization cannot exist and thrive in the absence of adequate water. As a result, even in smart cities, water plays an important role in human existence. The key causes of this catastrophic water scarcity crisis are lifestyle changes, over-exploitation of groundwater, water over usage, rapid urbanization, and uncontrolled population growth. Furthermore, salty water seeps into deeper aquifers, causing land subsidence. The purpose of this study on artificial groundwater recharge is to address the water shortage in Gomti Nagar, Lucknow. Submersibles are the most common methods of collecting freshwater from groundwater in Gomti Nagar neighbourhood of Lucknow. Gomti Nagar area has a groundwater depletion rate of 1968 m3/day/km2 and is categorized as Zone-A (very high levels) based on the existing groundwater abstraction pattern - A to D. Harvesting rainwater using roof top rainwater harvesting systems (RTRWHs) is an effective method for reducing aquifer depletion in a sustainable water management system. Rainwater collecting using roof top rainwater harvesting systems (RTRWHs) is an effective method for reducing aquifer depletion in a sustainable water conservation system. Due to a water imbalance of 24519 ML/yr, the Gomti Nagar region is facing severe groundwater depletion. According to the Lucknow Development Authority (LDA), the impact of installed RTRWHs (plot area 300 sq. m.) is 0.04 percent of rainfall collected through RTRWHs in Gomti Nagar region of Lucknow. When RTRWHs are deployed in all buildings, their influence will be greater. Bye-laws in India have mandated the installation of RTRWHs on plots greater than 300 sq.m. A better India without any water problem is a pipe dream that may be realized by installing residential and commercial rooftop rainwater collecting systems in every structure. According to the current study, RTRWHs should be used as an alternate source of water to bridge the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction in smart city viz. Gomti Nagar, Lucknow, India.

Keywords: groundwater recharge, RTRWHs, harvested rainwater, rainfall, water extraction

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1522 Therapeutic Drug Monitoring by Dried Blood Spot and LC-MS/MS: Novel Application to Carbamazepine and Its Metabolite in Paediatric Population

Authors: Giancarlo La Marca, Engy Shokry, Fabio Villanelli

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Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological disorders, with an estimated prevalence of 50 million people worldwide. Twenty five percent of the epilepsy population is represented in children under the age of 15 years. For antiepileptic drugs (AED), there is a poor correlation between plasma concentration and dose especially in children. This was attributed to greater pharmacokinetic variability than adults. Hence, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is recommended in controlling toxicity while drug exposure is maintained. Carbamazepine (CBZ) is a first-line AED and the drug of first choice in trigeminal neuralgia. CBZ is metabolised in the liver into carbamazepine-10,11-epoxide (CBZE), its major metabolite which is equipotent. This develops the need for an assay able to monitor the levels of both CBZ and CBZE. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a LC-MS/MS method for simultaneous quantification of CBZ and CBZE in dried blood spots (DBS). DBS technique overcomes many logistical problems, ethical issues and technical challenges faced by classical plasma sampling. LC-MS/MS has been regarded as superior technique over immunoassays and HPLC/UV methods owing to its better specificity and sensitivity, lack of interference or matrix effects. Our method combines advantages of DBS technique and LC-MS/MS in clinical practice. The extraction process was done using methanol-water-formic acid (80:20:0.1, v/v/v). The chromatographic elution was achieved by using a linear gradient with a mobile phase consisting of acetonitrile-water-0.1% formic acid at a flow rate of 0.50 mL/min. The method was linear over the range 1-40 mg/L and 0.25-20 mg/L for CBZ and CBZE respectively. The limit of quantification was 1.00 mg/L and 0.25 mg/L for CBZ and CBZE, respectively. Intra-day and inter-day assay precisions were found to be less than 6.5% and 11.8%. An evaluation of DBS technique was performed, including effect of extraction solvent, spot homogeneity and stability in DBS. Results from a comparison with the plasma assay are also presented. The novelty of the present work lies in being the first to quantify CBZ and its metabolite from only one 3.2 mm DBS disc finger-prick sample (3.3-3.4 µl blood) by LC-MS/MS in a 10 min. chromatographic run.

Keywords: carbamazepine, carbamazepine-10, 11-epoxide, dried blood spots, LC-MS/MS, therapeutic drug monitoring

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1521 A New Social Vulnerability Index for Evaluating Social Vulnerability to Climate Change at the Local Scale

Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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1520 Religious Cognition and Intergroup Bias in the Trolley Dilemma: Experimental Fieldwork in Fiji

Authors: Crystal Shackleford, Michael Pasek, Julia Smith, Jeremy Ginges

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There is extensive debate about the causal role of religion in intergroup conflict. It is commonly accepted that religious beliefs promote in-group cohesion, but religion is often believed to exacerbate inter-group conflict. Fiji is religiously diverse and has a lengthy history of ethno-religious conflict. In a preregistered field experiment using a modified version of the trolley problem dilemma, Christian and Muslim Fijians were asked, first from their own perspective, and then from their God’s perspective, whether a religious ingroup member should sacrifice their life to save five children who were ingroup or outgroup members. Almost all Muslim participants believed that the person should always sacrifice themselves to save the children. Amongst Christian participants, thinking from God’s perspective increased their likelihood of saying the children should be saved by 35% and removed a 27% gap between responses to saving ingroup versus outgroup children. These results replicate previous findings from a Palestinian sample and demonstrate, in another cross-cultural context with a history of violent conflict, that religious cognition can decrease bias and promote the application of universal moral principles.

Keywords: conflict, moral dilemma, psychology, religion, thought experiments

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1519 Potential Activities of Human Endogenous Retroviral kDNA in Melanoma Pathogenesis and HIV-1 Infection

Authors: Jianli Dong, Fangling Xu, Gengming Huang

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Human endogenous retroviral elements (HERVs) comprise approximately 8% of the human genome. They are thought to be germline-integrated genetic remnants of retroviral infections. Although HERV sequences are highly defective, some, especially the K type (HERV-K), have been shown to be expressed and may have biological activities in the pathogenesis of cancer, chronic inflammation and autoimmune diseases. We found that HERV-K GAG and ENV proteins were strongly expressed in pleomorphic melanoma cells. We also detected a critical role of HERV-K ENV in mediating intercellular fusion and colony formation of melanoma cells. Interestingly, we found that levels of HERV-K GAG and ENV expression correlated with the activation of ERK and loss of p16INK4A in melanoma cells, and inhibition of MEK or CDK4, especially in combination, reduced HERV-K expression in melanoma cells. We also performed a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay using DNase I digestion to remove “contaminating” HERV-K genomic DNA and examined HERV-K RNA expression in plasma samples from HIV-1 infected individuals. We found a covariation between HERV-K RNA expression and CD4 cell counts in HIV-1 positive samples. Although a causal link between HERV-K activation and melanoma development, and between HERV-K activation, HIV-1 infection and CD4 cell count have yet to be determined, existing data support the further research efforts in HERV-K.

Keywords: CD4 cell, HERV-K, HIV-1, melanoma

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1518 A Critical Analysis of Cognitive Explanations of Afterlife Belief

Authors: Mahdi Biabanaki

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Religion is present in all human societies and has been for tens of thousands of years. What is noteworthy is that although religious traditions vary in different societies, there are considerable similarities in their religious beliefs. In all human cultures, for example, there is a widespread belief in the afterlife. Cognitive science of Religion (CSR), an emerging branch of cognitive science, searches for the root of these widespread similarities and the widespread prevalence of beliefs such as beliefs in the afterlife in common mental structures among humans. Accordingly, the cognitive architecture of the human mind has evolved to produce such beliefs automatically and non-reflectively. For CSR researchers, belief in the afterlife is an intuitive belief resulting from the functioning of mental tools. Our purpose in this article is to extract and evaluate the cognitive explanations presented in the CSR field for explaining beliefs in the afterlife. Our research shows that there are two basic theories in this area of CSR, namely "intuitive dualism" and "simulation constraint" theory. We show that these two theories face four major challenges and limitations in explaining belief in the afterlife: inability to provide a causal explanation, inability to explain cultural/religious differences in afterlife belief, the lack of distinction between the natural and the rational foundations of belief in the afterlife and disregarding the supernatural foundations of the afterlife belief.

Keywords: afterlife, cognitive science of religion, intuitive dualism, simulation constraint

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1517 Analysis of Noodle Production Process at Yan Hu Food Manufacturing: Basis for Production Improvement

Authors: Rhadinia Tayag-Relanes, Felina C. Young

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This study was conducted to analyze the noodle production process at Yan Hu Food Manufacturing for the basis of production improvement. The study utilized the PDCA approach and record review in the gathering of data for the calendar year 2019 from August to October data of the noodle products miki, canton, and misua. Causal-comparative research was used in this study; it attempts to establish cause-effect relationships among the variables such as descriptive statistics and correlation, both were used to compute the data gathered. The study found that miki, canton, and misua production has different cycle time sets for each production and has different production outputs in every set of its production process and a different number of wastages. The company has not yet established its allowable rejection rate/ wastage; instead, this paper used a 1% wastage limit. The researcher recommended the following: machines used for each process of the noodle product must be consistently maintained and monitored; an assessment of all the production operators by checking their performance statistically based on the output and the machine performance; a root cause analysis for finding the solution must be conducted; and an improvement on the recording system of the input and output of the production process of noodle product should be established to eliminate the poor recording of data.

Keywords: production, continuous improvement, process, operations, PDCA

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1516 A Systematic Review on Orphan Drugs Pricing, and Prices Challenges

Authors: Seyran Naghdi

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Background: Orphan drug development is limited by very high costs attributed to the research and development and small size market. How health policymakers address this challenge to consider both supply and demand sides need to be explored for directing the policies and plans in the right way. The price is an important signal for pharmaceutical companies’ profitability and the patients’ accessibility as well. Objective: This study aims to find out the orphan drugs' price-setting patterns and approaches in health systems through a systematic review of the available evidence. Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach was used. MedLine, Embase, and Web of Sciences were searched via appropriate search strategies. Through Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), the appropriate terms for pricing were 'cost and cost analysis', and it was 'orphan drug production', and 'orphan drug', for orphan drugs. The critical appraisal was performed by the Joanna-Briggs tool. A Cochrane data extraction form was used to obtain the data about the studies' characteristics, results, and conclusions. Results: Totally, 1,197 records were found. It included 640 hits from Embase, 327 from Web of Sciences, and 230 MedLine. After removing the duplicates, 1,056 studies remained. Of them, 924 studies were removed in the primary screening phase. Of them, 26 studies were included for data extraction. The majority of the studies (>75%) are from developed countries, among them, approximately 80% of the studies are from European countries. Approximately 85% of evidence has been produced in the recent decade. Conclusions: There is a huge variation of price-setting among countries, and this is related to the specific pharmacological market structure and the thresholds that governments want to intervene in the process of pricing. On the other hand, there is some evidence on the availability of spaces to reduce the very high costs of orphan drugs development through an early agreement between pharmacological firms and governments. Further studies need to focus on how the governments could incentivize the companies to agree on providing the drugs at lower prices.

Keywords: orphan drugs, orphan drug production, pricing, costs, cost analysis

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1515 Polymer Flooding: Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery Technique

Authors: Abhinav Bajpayee, Shubham Damke, Rupal Ranjan, Neha Bharti

Abstract:

Polymer flooding is a dramatic improvement in water flooding and quickly becoming one of the EOR technologies. Used for improving oil recovery. With the increasing energy demand and depleting oil reserves EOR techniques are becoming increasingly significant .Since most oil fields have already begun water flooding, chemical EOR technique can be implemented by using fewer resources than any other EOR technique. Polymer helps in increasing the viscosity of injected water thus reducing water mobility and hence achieves a more stable displacement .Polymer flooding helps in increasing the injection viscosity as has been revealed through field experience. While the injection of a polymer solution improves reservoir conformance the beneficial effect ceases as soon as one attempts to push the polymer solution with water. It is most commonly applied technique because of its higher success rate. In polymer flooding, a water-soluble polymer such as Polyacrylamide is added to the water in the water flood. This increases the viscosity of the water to that of a gel making the oil and water greatly improving the efficiency of the water flood. It also improves the vertical and areal sweep efficiency as a consequence of improving the water/oil mobility ratio. Polymer flooding plays an important role in oil exploitation, but around 60 million ton of wastewater is produced per day with oil extraction together. Therefore the treatment and reuse of wastewater becomes significant which can be carried out by electro dialysis technology. This treatment technology can not only decrease environmental pollution, but also achieve closed-circuit of polymer flooding wastewater during crude oil extraction. There are three potential ways in which a polymer flood can make the oil recovery process more efficient: (1) through the effects of polymers on fractional flow, (2) by decreasing the water/oil mobility ratio, and (3) by diverting injected water from zones that have been swept. It has also been suggested that the viscoelastic behavior of polymers can improve displacement efficiency Polymer flooding may also have an economic impact because less water is injected and produced compared with water flooding. In future we need to focus on developing polymers that can be used in reservoirs of high temperature and high salinity, applying polymer flooding in different reservoir conditions and also combine polymer with other processes (e.g., surfactant/ polymer flooding).

Keywords: fractional flow, polymer, viscosity, water/oil mobility ratio

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1514 Risk Mitigation of Data Causality Analysis Requirements AI Act

Authors: Raphaël Weuts, Mykyta Petik, Anton Vedder

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Artificial Intelligence has the potential to create and already creates enormous value in healthcare. Prescriptive systems might be able to make the use of healthcare capacity more efficient. Such systems might entail interpretations that exclude the effect of confounders that brings risks with it. Those risks might be mitigated by regulation that prevents systems entailing such risks to come to market. One modality of regulation is that of legislation, and the European AI Act is an example of such a regulatory instrument that might mitigate these risks. To assess the risk mitigation potential of the AI Act for those risks, this research focusses on a case study of a hypothetical application of medical device software that entails the aforementioned risks. The AI Act refers to the harmonised norms for already existing legislation, here being the European medical device regulation. The issue at hand is a causal link between a confounder and the value the algorithm optimises for by proxy. The research identifies where the AI Act already looks at confounders (i.a. feedback loops in systems that continue to learn after being placed on the market). The research identifies where the current proposal by parliament leaves legal uncertainty on the necessity to check for confounders that do not influence the input of the system, when the system does not continue to learn after being placed on the market. The authors propose an amendment to article 15 of the AI Act that would require high-risk systems to be developed in such a way as to mitigate risks from those aforementioned confounders.

Keywords: AI Act, healthcare, confounders, risks

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1513 Real Interest Rates and Real Returns of Agricultural Commodities in the Context of Quantitative Easing

Authors: Wei Yao, Constantinos Alexiou

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In the existing literature, many studies have focused on the implementation and effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, but only a few have evaluated QE’s effect on commodity prices. In this context, by following Frankel’s (1986) commodity price overshooting model, we study the dynamic covariation between the expected real interest rates and six agricultural commodities’ real returns over the period from 2000:1 to 2018 for the US economy. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the causal relationship and co-movement of time series data by calculating the coefficient of determination in different frequencies. We find that a) US unconventional monetary policy may cause more positive and significant covariation between the expected real interest rates and agricultural commodities’ real returns over the short horizons; b) a lead-lag relationship that runs from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real short-term interest rates over the long horizons; and c) a lead-lag relationship from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real long-term interest rates over short horizons. In the realm of monetary policy, we argue that QE may shift the negative relationship between most commodities’ real returns and the expected real interest rates to a positive one over a short horizon.

Keywords: QE, commodity price, interest rate, wavelet coherence

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1512 Techno-Functional Characteristics, Mineral Composition and Antioxidant Potential of Dietary Fiber Extracted by Sonication from Different Oat Cultivars (Avena sativa)

Authors: Muhammad Suhail Ibrahim, Muhammad Nadeem, Muhammad Sultan, Uzair Sajjad, Khalid Hamid, Tahir Mahmood Qureshi, Sadaf Javaria

Abstract:

Metabolic disorders, including hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease etc., are major threats to public health and economy. Management and prevention of alarmingly increasing disorders have attracted researchers to explore natural barriers against these disorders. The objective of this study was to explore oats as a potential source of dietary fiber. Extraction of dietary was optimized by response surface methodology, and five indigenous oat cultivars, including SGD2011, Avon, SGD81, PD2LV65, and S2000, were also characterized for techno-functional characteristics, mineral composition and phytochemical quantification. These cultivars varied significantly (p < 0.05) for oil holding capacity, water saturation, and water holding capacity, respectively. SGD81 showed the highest oil-holding capacity, water-holding capacity, and water saturation due to the highest fraction of dietary fiber. The highest values of total phenolic contents, total flavonoid contents, total flavonol contents, 2, 2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging activity, and anthocyanin were shown by SGD81, and SGD2011, respectively. All cultivars varied significantly (P<0.05) with respect to phytochemical quantification. Oat cultivars SGD81 and SGD2011 showed the best phenolic acid profile and can be effectively used as a source of nutraceuticals. Beyond the nutritional properties of oats, these also contribute and emerged as potential sources of dietary fiber and have gained attention as nutraceutical cereal crops. This approach offers oats as a natural means of dietary fiber to protect humans from alarmingly increasing metabolic disorders, and its extraction by sonication has made it a sustainable and eco-friendly strategy.

Keywords: oat cultivars, dietary fibers, mineral profile, antioxidant activity, color properties

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1511 Application of Groundwater Level Data Mining in Aquifer Identification

Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

Abstract:

Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

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1510 Efficacy of Sparganium stoloniferum–Derived Compound in the Treatment of Acne Vulgaris: A Pilot Study

Authors: Wanvipa Thongborisute, Punyaphat Sirithanabadeekul, Pichit Suvanprakorn, Anan Jiraviroon

Abstract:

Background: Acne vulgaris is one of the most common dermatologic problems, and can have a significant psychological and physical effect on patients. Propionibacterium acnes' roles in acne vulgaris involve the activation of toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), and toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) pathways. By activating these pathways, inflammatory events of acne lesions, comedogenesis and sebaceous lipogenesis can occur. Currently, there are several topical agents commonly use in treating acne vulgaris that are known to have an effect on TLRs, such as retinoic acid and adapalene, but these drugs still have some irritating effects. At present, there is an alarming increase in rate of bacterial resistance due to irrational used of antibiotics both orally and topically. For this reason, acne treatments should contain bioactive molecules targeting at the site of action for the most effective therapeutic effect with the least side effects. Sparganium stoloniferumis a Chinese aquatic herb containing a compound called Sparstolonin B (SsnB), which has been reported to selectively blocks Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) and Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated inflammatory signals. Therefore, this topical TLR2 and TLR4 antagonist, in a form of Sparganium stoloniferum-derived compound containing SsnB, should give a benefit in reducing inflammation of acne vulgaris lesions and providing an alternative treatments for patients with this condition. Materials and Methods: The objectives of this randomized double blinded split faced placebo controlled trial is to study the safety and efficacy of the Sparganium stoloniferum-derived compound. 32 volunteered patients with mild to moderate degree of acne vulgaris according to global acne grading system were included in the study. After being informed and consented the subjects were given 2 topical treatments for acne vulgaris, one being topical 2.40% Sparganium stoloniferum extraction (containing Sparstolonin B) and the other, placebo. The subjects were asked to apply each treatment to either half of the face daily morning and night by randomization for 8 weeks, and come in for a weekly follow up. For each visit, the patients went through a procedure of lesion counting, including comedones, papules, nodules, pustules, and cystic lesions. Results: During 8 weeks of experimentation, the result shows a reduction in total lesions number between the placebo and the treatment side show statistical significance starting at week 4, where the 95% confidence interval begin to no longer overlap, and shows a trend of continuing to be further apart. The decrease in the amount of total lesions between week 0 and week 8 of the placebo side shows no statistical significant at P value >0.05. While the decrease in the amount of total lesions of acne vulgaris of the treatment side comparing between week 0 and week 8 shows statistical significant at P value <0.001. Conclusion: The data demonstrates that 2.40% Sparganium stoloniferum extraction (containing Sparstolonin B) is more effective in treating acne vulgaris comparing to topical placebo in treating acne vulgaris, by showing significant reduction in the total numbers of acne lesions. Therefore, this topical Sparganium stoloniferum extraction could become a potential alternative treatment for acne vulgaris.

Keywords: acne vulgaris, sparganium stoloniferum, sparstolonin B, toll-like receptor 2, toll-like receptor 4

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1509 Analyzing Migration Patterns Using Public Disorder Event Data

Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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1508 The Systematic Impact of Climatic Disasters on the Maternal Health in Pakistan

Authors: Yiqi Zhu, Jean Francois Trani, Rameez Ulhassan

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Extreme weather phenomena increased by 46% between 2007 and 2017 and have become more intense with the rise in global average temperatures. This increased intensity of climate variations often induces humanitarian crises and particularly affects vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Expectant and lactating mothers are among the most vulnerable groups. Pakistan ranks 10th among the most affected countries by climate disasters. In 2022, monsoon floods submerged a third of the country, causing the loss of 1,500 lives. Approximately 650,000 expectant and lactating mothers faced systematic stress from climatic disasters. Our study used participatory methods to investigate the systematic impact of climatic disasters on maternal health. In March 2023, we conducted six Group Model Building (GMB) workshops with healthcare workers, fathers, and mothers separately in two of the most affected areas in Pakistan. This study was approved by the Islamic Relief Research Review Board. GMB workshops consist of three sessions. In the first session, participants discussed the factors that impact maternal health. After identifying the factors, they discussed the connections among them and explored the system structures that collectively impact maternal health. Based on the discussion, a causal loop diagram (CLD) was created. Finally, participants discussed action ideas that could improve the system to enhance maternal health. Based on our discussions and the causal loop diagram, we identified interconnected factors at the family, community, and policy levels. Mothers and children are directly impacted by three interrelated factors: food insecurity, unstable housing, and lack of income. These factors create a reinforcing cycle that negatively affects both mothers and newborns. After the flood, many mothers were unable to produce sufficient breastmilk due to their health status. Without breastmilk and sufficient food for complementary feeding, babies tend to get sick in damp and unhygienic environments resulting from temporary or unstable housing. When parents take care of sick children, they miss out on income-generating opportunities. At the community level, the lack of access to clean water and sanitation (WASH) and maternal healthcare further worsens the situation. Structural failures such as a lack of safety nets and programs associated with flood preparedness make families increasingly vulnerable with each disaster. Several families reported that they had not fully recovered from a flood that occurred ten years ago, and this latest disaster destroyed their lives again. Although over twenty non-profit organizations are working in these villages, few of them provide sustainable support. Therefore, participants called for systemic changes in response to the increasing frequency of climate disasters. The study reveals the systematic vulnerabilities of mothers and children after climatic disasters. The most vulnerable populations are often affected the most by climate change. Collaborative efforts are required to improve water and forest management, strengthen public infrastructure, increase access to WASH, and gradually build climate-resilient communities. Governments, non-governmental organizations, and the community should work together to develop and implement effective strategies to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to climate change and its impacts.

Keywords: climatic disasters, maternal health, Pakistan, systematic impact, flood, disaster relief.

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1507 Systematic Review of Quantitative Risk Assessment Tools and Their Effect on Racial Disproportionality in Child Welfare Systems

Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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