Search results for: uncertainty analysis

Authors: Liang Zhao, Jili Zhang, Chongquan Zhong

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Energy consumption data, in particular those involving public buildings, are impacted by many factors: the building structure, climate/environmental parameters, construction, system operating condition, and user behavior patterns. Traditional methods for data analysis are insufficient. This paper delves into the data mining technology to determine its application in the analysis of building energy consumption data including energy consumption prediction, fault diagnosis, and optimal operation. Recent literature are reviewed and summarized, the problems faced by data mining technology in the area of energy consumption data analysis are enumerated, and research points for future studies are given.

Keywords: data mining, data analysis, prediction, optimization, building operational performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 854

Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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Risk management is recognised as an essential tool to tackle the inevitable uncertainty associated with business and projects at all levels. But it frequently fails to meet expectations, with projects continuing to run late, over budget or under performing, and business is not gaining the expected benefits. The evident disconnect which often occurs between strategic vision and tactical project delivery typically arises from poorly defined project objectives and inadequate attention to the proactive management of risks that could affect those objectives. One of the main failings in the traditional approach to risk management arises from a narrow focus on the downside, restricted to the technical or operational field, addressing tactical threats to processes, performance or people. This shortcoming can be overcome by widening the scope of risk management to encompass both strategic risks and upside opportunities, creating an integrated approach which can bridge the gap between strategy and tactics. Integrated risk management addresses risk across a variety of levels in the organisation, including strategy and tactics, and covering both opportunity and threat. Effective implementation of integrated risk management can produce a number of benefits to the organisation which are not available from the typical limited-scope risk process. This paper explores how to expand risk management to deliver strategic advantage while retaining its use as a tactical tool.

Keywords: risk management, success, organization, strategy, project, tactis, vision

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Authors: Adrian W. Chew

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This paper argues that education policy analysis tends to be steered towards empiricist oriented approaches, which place emphasis on objective and measurable data. However, this paper argues that empiricist oriented approaches are generally based on inductive and/or deductive reasoning, which are unable to generate new ideas/knowledge. This paper will outline the logical structure of induction, deduction, and abduction, and argues that only abduction provides possibilities for the creation of new ideas/knowledge. This paper proposes the neologism of ‘informed guessing’ as a reformulation of abduction, and also as an approach to education policy analysis. On one side, the signifier ‘informed’ encapsulates the idea that abductive policy analysis needs to be informed by descriptive conceptualization theory to be able to make relations and connections between, and within, observed phenomenon and unobservable general structures. On the other side, the signifier ‘guessing’ captures the cyclical and unsystematic process of abduction. This paper will end with a brief example of utilising ‘informed guessing’ for a policy analysis of school choice lotteries in the United States.

Keywords: abductive reasoning, empiricism, informed guessing, policy analysis

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Authors: Tuğrul Aksoy, Hüseyin Karabıyık

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Reloading vehicles are the vehicles which are generally equipped with a crane and used to carry a stowage from a point and locate onto the vehicle or vice versa. In this study, structural analysis of a reloading vehicle was performed under the loads which are predicted to be exposed under operating conditions via the finite element method. Among the finite element analysis results, the stress and displacement distributions of the vehicle and the contact pressure distributions of the guide rings within the stabilization legs were examined. Vehicle design was improved by strengthening certain parts according to the analysis results. The analyses performed for the final design were verified by the experiments involving strain gauge measurements.

Keywords: structural analysis, reloading vehicle, crane, strain gauge

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Authors: Ebuwa Osagie, Vasilije Manovic

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Exergy analysis provides the identification of the location, sources of thermodynamic inefficiencies, and magnitude in a thermal system. Thus, both the qualitative and quantitative assessment can be evaluated with exergy, unlike energy which is based on quantitative assessment only. The main purpose of exergy analysis is to identify where exergy is destroyed. Thus, reduction of the exergy destruction and losses associated with the capture plant systems can improve work potential. Furthermore, thermodynamic analysis of different configurations of the process helps to identify opportunities for reducing the steam requirements for each of the configurations. This paper presents steady-state simulation and exergy analysis of the 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol (AMP)-based post-combustion capture (PCC) plant. Exergy analysis performed for the AMP-based plant and the different configurations revealed that the rich split with intercooling configuration gave the highest exergy efficiency of 73.6%, while that of the intercooling and the reference AMP-based plant were 57.3% and 55.8% respectively.

Keywords: 2-amino-2-methyl-1-propanol, modelling, and simulation, post-combustion capture plant, exergy analysis, flowsheeting configurations

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Authors: Aissa Belmeguenai, Khaled Mansouri

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In this work, an efficient implementation of Achterbahn-128 for images encryption and decryption was introduced. The implementation for this simulated project is written by MATLAB.7.5. At first two different original images are used for validate the proposed design. Then our developed program was used to transform the original images data into image digits file. Finally, we used our implemented program to encrypt and decrypt images data. Several tests are done for proving the design performance including visual tests and security analysis; we discuss the security analysis of the proposed image encryption scheme including some important ones like key sensitivity analysis, key space analysis, and statistical attacks.

Keywords: Achterbahn-128, stream cipher, image encryption, security analysis

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Authors: Bongjae Lee, Beom Goo Hwang, Hye Mi Park

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CO₂ capture products manufactured through Carbon Capture and Utilization (CCU) Plant that collect CO₂ directly from power plants require accurate measurements of the amount of CO₂ captured. For this purpose, two tests were carried out on the weight loss test. And one was analyzed using a carbon dioxide quantification device. First, the ignition loss analysis was performed by measuring the weight of the sample at 550°C after the first conversation and then confirming the loss when ignited at 950°C. Second, in the thermogravimetric analysis, the sample was divided into two sections of 40 to 500°C and 500 to 800°C to confirm the reduction. The results of thermal weight loss analysis and thermogravimetric analysis were confirmed to be almost similar. However, the temperature of the ignition loss analysis method was 950°C, which was 150°C higher than that of the thermogravimetric method at a temperature of 800°C, so that the difference in the amount of weight loss was 3 to 4% higher by the heat loss analysis method. In addition, the tendency that the CO₂ content increases as the reaction time become longer is similarly confirmed. Third, the results of the wet titration method through the carbon dioxide quantification device were found to be significantly lower than the weight loss method. Therefore, based on the results obtained through the above three analysis methods, we will establish a method to analyze the accurate amount of CO₂. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and planning (No. 20152010201850).

Keywords: carbon capture and utilization, CCU, CO2, CO2 capture products, analysis method

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Authors: Sujit K. Basak

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This paper presents a comparison of the reference management software between Zotero and Mendeley and the results were drawn by comparing the two software’s. The novelty of this paper is the comparative analysis of the software and it has shown that Mendeley can import more information from the Google Scholar for the researchers. This finding can help to know researchers to use the reference management software.

Keywords: analysis, comparative analysis, zotero, researchers, Mendeley

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Authors: Muhammad Suhaib

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Requirements Analysis are the most important part of software Engineering for both system application development, and project requirements. Conflicts often arise during the requirements gathering and analysis phase. This research aims to identify conflicts during the requirements gathering phase in software development life cycle, Research, Development, and Technology converted the world into a global village. During requirements elicitation/gathering phase it’s very difficult to understand the main objective of stakeholders, after completion of requirements elicitation task final results are used for Software Requirements Specification (SRS), SRS is the highly important outcome of the requirements analysis phase. this is the foundation between the developers and stakeholders or customers, proposed methodology will be helpful to identify those conflicts in a very easy manner during the initial phase of the project.

Keywords: goal oriented requirements analysis, conflicts identification model, requirements analysis, requirements engineering

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Sarah Niklas, Lynne Chester, Mark Diesendorf

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Geopolitical tensions, climate change and recent movements favouring a transformative shift in institutional power structures have influenced the economics of conventional energy supply for decades. This study takes a multi-dimensional approach to illustrate the potential of renewable energy (RE) technology to provide a pathway to a low-carbon economy driven by ecologically sustainable, independent and socially just energy. This comparative analysis identifies economic, political and social drivers that shaped the adoption of RE policy in two significantly different economies, Germany and Australia, with strong and weak commitments to RE respectively. Two complementary political-economy theories frame the document-based analysis. Régulation Theory, inspired by Marxist ideas and strongly influenced by contemporary economic problems, provides the background to explore the social relationships contributing the adoption of RE within the macro-economy. Varieties of Capitalism theory, a more recently developed micro-economic approach, examines the nature of state-firm relationships. Together these approaches provide a comprehensive lens of analysis. Germany’s energy policy transformed substantially over the second half of the last century. The development is characterised by the coordination of societal, environmental and industrial demands throughout the advancement of capitalist regimes. In the Fordist regime, mass production based on coal drove Germany’s astounding economic recovery during the post-war period. Economic depression and the instability of institutional arrangements necessitated the impulsive seeking of national security and energy independence. During the postwar Flexi-Fordist period, quality-based production, innovation and technology-based competition schemes, particularly with regard to political power structures in and across Europe, favoured the adoption of RE. Innovation, knowledge and education were institutionalized, leading to the legislation of environmental concerns. Lastly the establishment of government-industry-based coordinative programs supported the phase out of nuclear power and the increased adoption of RE during the last decade. Australia’s energy policy is shaped by the country’s richness in mineral resources. Energy policy largely served coal mining, historically and currently one of the most capital-intense industry. Assisted by the macro-economic dimensions of institutional arrangements, social and financial capital is orientated towards the export-led and strongly demand-oriented economy. Here energy policy serves the maintenance of capital accumulation in the mining sector and the emerging Asian economies. The adoption of supportive renewable energy policy would challenge the distinct role of the mining industry within the (neo)-liberal market economy. The state’s protective role of the mining sector has resulted in weak commitment to RE policy and investment uncertainty in the energy sector. Recent developments, driven by strong public support for RE, emphasize the sense of community in urban and rural areas and the emergence of a bottom-up approach to adopt renewables. Thus, political economy frameworks on both the macro-economic (Regulation Theory) and micro-economic (Varieties of Capitalism theory) scales can together explain the strong commitment to RE in Germany vis-à-vis the weak commitment in Australia.

Keywords: political economy, regulation theory, renewable energy, social relationships, energy transitions

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Authors: Zainurrasyid Abdullah, Mohamed Fadzlee Sulaiman, Muhammad Fadzlan Zainal, M. Zabri Adil Talib, Aswami Fadillah M. Ariffin

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The Onion Router (Tor) browser is a well-known tool and widely used by people who seeking for web anonymity when browsing the internet. Criminals are taking this advantage to be anonymous over the internet. Accessing the dark web could be the significant reason for the criminal in order for them to perform illegal activities while maintaining their anonymity. For a digital forensic analyst, it is crucial to extract the trail of evidence in proving that the criminal’s computer has used Tor browser to conduct such illegal activities. By applying the digital forensic methodology, several techniques could be performed including application analysis, memory analysis, and registry analysis. Since Windows 10 is the latest operating system released by Microsoft Corporation, this study will use Windows 10 as the operating system platform that running Tor browser. From the analysis, significant artifacts left by Tor browser were discovered such as the execution date, application installation date and browsing history that can be used as an evidence. Although Tor browser was designed to achieved anonymity, there is still some trail of evidence can be found in Windows 10 platform that can be useful for investigation.

Keywords: artifacts analysis, digital forensics, forensic analysis, memory analysis, registry analysis, tor browser, Windows 10

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Authors: J. R. Wang, H. T. Lin, Y. Chiang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih

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Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is located on the northern coast of Taiwan. Its nuclear steam supply system is a type of BWR/6 designed and built by General Electric on a twin unit concept. First, the methodology of Kuosheng NPP SPU (Stretch Power Uprate) safety analysis TRACE/SNAP model was developed in this research. Then, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP under the more severe condition, the SBO (Station Blackout) + LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP SPU TRACE/SNAP model was performed. Besides, the animation model of Kuosheng NPP was presented using the animation function of SNAP with TRACE/SNAP analysis results.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, severe accident

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Authors: Athena Nguyen, Rojin Belganeh

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Detecting and identifying differences in like polymer materials are key factors in deformulation, comparative analysis as well as reverse engineering. Pyrolysis-GC/MS is an easy solid sample introduction technique which expands the application areas of gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The Micro-furnace pyrolyzer is directly interfaced with the GC injector preventing any potential of cold spot, carryover, and cross contamination. This presentation demonstrates the study of two similar polymers by performing different mode of operations in the same system: Evolve gas analysis (EGA), Flash pyrolysis, Thermal desorption analysis, and Heart-cutting analysis. Unknown polymer materials and their chemical compositions are identified.

Keywords: gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, pyrolysis, pyrolyzer, thermal desorption-GC/MS

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Authors: T. Mushiri, K. Tengende, C. Mbohwa, T. Garikayi

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This paper introduces finite element analysis of Run off Mine (ROM) silo subjected to dynamic loading. The proposed procedure is based on the use of theoretical equations to come up with pressure and forces exerted by Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) ore to the silo wall. Finite Element Analysis of the silo involves the use of CAD software (AutoCAD) for3D creation and CAE software (T-FLEX) for the simulation work with an optimization routine to minimize the mass and also ensure structural stiffness and stability. In this research an efficient way to design and analysis of a silo in 3D T-FLEX (CAD) program was created the silo to stay within the constrains and so as to know the points of failure due dynamic loading.

Keywords: reinforced concrete silo, finite element analysis, T-FLEX software, AutoCAD

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Authors: Sufrin Hannan, Budi Suharjo, Rita Nurmalina, Kirbrandoko

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The challenge for independent surveyor service companies now is growing with increasing uncertainty in business. Protection from the government for domestic independent surveyor industry from competitor attack, such as entering the global surveyors to Indonesia also no longer exists. Therefore, building customer loyalty becomes very important to create a long-term relationship between an independent surveyor with its customers. This study aims to develop a model that can be used to build customer loyalty by looking at various factors that determine customer loyalty, especially on independent surveyors for coal inspection in Indonesia. The development of this model uses the relationship marketing approach. Testing of the hypothesis is done by testing the variables that determine customer loyalty, either directly or indirectly, which amounted to 10 variables. The data were collected from 200 questionnaires filled by independent surveyor company decision makers from 51 exporting companies and coal trading companies in Indonesia and analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM). The results show that customer loyalty of independent surveyors is influenced by customer satisfaction, trust, switching-barrier, and relationship-bond. Research on customer satisfaction shows that customer satisfaction is influenced by the perceived quality and perceived value, while perceived quality is influenced by reliability, assurance, responsiveness, and empathy.

Keywords: relationship marketing, customer loyalty, customer satisfaction, switching barriers, relationship bonds

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Authors: Aydin M. Torkabadi, Ehsan Pourjavad

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A decade after the introduction of Lean in Saskatchewan’s public healthcare system, its effectiveness remains a controversial subject among health researchers, workers, managers, and politicians. Therefore, developing a framework to quantitatively assess the Lean achievements is significant. This study investigates the success of initiatives across Saskatchewan health regions by recognizing the Lean healthcare criteria, measuring the success levels, comparing the regions, and identifying the areas for improvements. This study proposes an integrated intelligent computing approach by applying Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). FIS is used as an efficient approach to assess the Lean healthcare criteria, and TOPSIS is applied for ranking the values in regards to the level of leanness. Due to the innate uncertainty in decision maker judgments on criteria, principals of the fuzzy theory are applied. Finally, FIS-TOPSIS was established as an efficient technique in determining the lean merit in healthcare systems.

Keywords: lean healthcare, intelligent computing, fuzzy inference system, healthcare evaluation, technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, multi-criteria decision making, MCDM

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Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

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Major concerns regarding nitritation of low-strength ammonium wastewaters include low ammonium loading rates (usually below 0.2 kg/m3-d) and uncertainty about long-term stability of the process. The purpose of this study was to test a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) filled with cell-immobilized polyethylene glycol (PEG) pellets to see if it could achieve efficient and stable nitritation under various environmental conditions. SBR was fed with synthetic ammonium wastewater of 30±2 mg-N/L and pH: 8±0.05, maintaining the dissolved oxygen concentration of 1.7±0.2 mg/L and the temperature at 30±1oC. The reaction was easily converted to partial nitrification mode within a month by feeding relatively high ammonium substrate (~100 mg-N/L) in the beginning. We observed stable nitritation over 300 days with high ammonium loading rates (as high as ~1.1 kg-N/m3-d), nitrite accumulation rates (mostly over 97%) and ammonium removal rate (mostly over 95%). DO was a major limiting substrate when the DO concentration was below ~4 mg/L and the NH4+-N concentration was above 5 mg/L, giving almost linear increase in the ammonium oxidation rate with the bulk DO increase. Low temperatures mainly affected the reaction rate, which could be compensated for by increasing the pellet volume (i.e. biomass). Our results demonstrated that an SBR filled with small cell-immobilized PEG pellets could achieve very efficient and stable nitritation of a low-strength ammonium wastewater.

Keywords: ammonium loading rate (ALR), cell-immobilization, long-term nitritation, sequencing batch reactor (SBR), sewage treatment

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Authors: Zeren Li, Wenkai Song

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Shanghai experienced a 3-month lockdown in 2022. This unprecedented lockdown made local residents afraid, anxious and worried about the unpredictability of the future. During the lockdown, many unethical behaviors related to lockdown are noticed by the public. Our studies documented unethical behavior during this lockdown by moral hypocrisy and moral justification examined whether or not the lockdown makes people behave more unethically, and analyzed the relationship between negative emotions and unethical behavior. In Study 1, we recruited 240 participants from Shanghai (n = 120) and other cities (n = 120) to compare people in lockdown and non-lockdown areas. Surprisingly, we found that people in lockdown areas tend to behave more ethically, exhibiting less moral hypocrisy. In addition, residents of the lockdown area have significantly higher negative emotions (afraid, nervousness, upset, and feelings of uncertainty). In Study 2, we recruited 70 respondents from Shanghai and found that people behave relatively ethically in lockdown-related scenarios (negatively correlated with anxiety about the lockdown) with relatively less moral justification than in lockdown-unrelated scenarios. We propose that negative emotions may reduce unethical behavior that may exacerbate the causes (in our study, the lockdown) of these negative emotions. Experiments may help to establish the causal relationship and verify the model in future research.

Keywords: COVID-19, unethical behavior, emotion, anxiety, moral justification, moral hypocrisy, China

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Authors: Fernanda Laureti T. Ferreira, Kazuo Nishimoto

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This paper presents a summary of the experience on videoconferencing tools that have been used to teach regular classes during this pandemic period in educational institutions in São Paulo, which tools and applications are most used and the challenges related to this mode of delivery. At this moment, the massive online education is not a choice of students or a structured development of education system, but a solution that emerged to attend urgent needs and it presents the opportunity to teach and learning available for the most students in this single time of social isolation that forced among others, this significant change for education, students, teachers, institutions and families. Distance education enables synchronous and asynchronous mode classes, and even though the current circumstances generate discomfort and uncertainty, on the other hand, there is a chance to promote a 'learning to learn'. The videoconference is a preferred choice of schools because synchronous mode to give more interaction between a group of students and teachers, but this mode requires specifics teacher competencies and skills, in addition to equipment and provision of adequate internet signal for all participants of the process. The approach is making use of known technical information about video conference tools and the results of search answered by a group of students, teachers, schools, and parents. The results presented refer to the perspectives of students and parents as respondents.

Keywords: distance education, interaction on education, online classes, synchronous e-learning, videoconference

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Authors: Nabilah Zainal Abidin, Fawazul Khair Ibrahim, Raja Nafida Raja Shahminan

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This paper discusses on how componential analysis is used in architecture, mainly in determining the absence and presence of furniture in Traditional Malay Houses. The house samples were retrieved from the reports archived by the Centre of Built Environment in the Malay World (KALAM) of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM). Findings from the analysis indicate that furniture available in the spaces of the houses is determined by the culture of the people and the availability of certain furniture is influenced by the activities that are carried out within the space.

Keywords: componential analysis, sustainable furniture, traditional malay house

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Authors: Anamika Devi

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Based on Vygotsky’s cultural, historical theory and Hedegaard’s concept of transition, this study aims to investigate to propose strategies to maintain digital wellbeing of children and parents during and post COVID pandemic. Due COVID 19 pandemic, children and families have been facing new challenges and sudden changes in their everyday life. While children are juggling to adjust themselves in new circumstance of onsite and online learning settings, parents are juggling with their work-life balance. A number of papers have identified that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the lives of many families around the world in many ways, for example, the stress level of many parents increased, families faced financial difficulties, uncertainty impacted on long term effects on their emotional and social wellbeing. After searching and doing an intensive literature review from 2020 and 2021, this study has found some scholarly articles provided solution or strategies of reducing stress levels of parents and children in this unprecedented time. However, most of them are not underpinned by proper theoretical lens to ensure they validity and success. Therefore, this study has proposed strategies that are underpinned by theoretical lens to ensure their impact on children’s and parents' emotional wellbeing during and post COVID-19 era. The strategies will highlight on activities for positive coping strategies to the best use of family values and digital technologies.

Keywords: onsite and online learning, strategies, emotional wellbeing, tips, and strategies, COVID19

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Authors: Jiin Jeong, Taekwang Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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The target microgrid in this paper is isolated from the large central power system and is assumed to consist of wind generators, photovoltaic power generators, an energy storage system (ESS), a diesel power generator, the community load, and a dump load. The operation of such a microgrid can be hazardous because of the uncertain prediction of power supply and demand and especially due to the high fluctuation of the output from the wind generators. In this paper, we propose an iterative replanning method for determining the appropriate level of diesel generation and the charging/discharging cycles of the ESS for the upcoming one-hour horizon. To cope with the uncertainty of the estimation of supply and demand, the one-hour plan is built repeatedly in the regular interval of one minute by rolling the one-hour horizon. Since the plan should be built with a sufficiently large safe margin to avoid any possible black-out, some energy waste through the dump load is inevitable. In our approach, the level of safe margin is optimized through learning from the past experience. The simulation experiments show that our method combined with the margin optimization can reduce the dump load compared to the method without such optimization.

Keywords: microgrid, operation planning, power efficiency optimization, supply and demand prediction

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Authors: S. Oudjemia, F. Alim, S. Seddiki

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This paper shows the application of multifractal analysis for additional help in cancer diagnosis. The medical image processing is a very important discipline in which many existing methods are in search of solutions to real problems of medicine. In this work, we present results of multifractal analysis of brain MRI images. The purpose of this analysis was to separate between healthy and cancerous tissue of the brain. A nonlinear method based on multifractal detrending moving average (MFDMA) which is a generalization of the detrending fluctuations analysis (DFA) is used for the detection of abnormalities in these images. The proposed method could make separation of the two types of brain tissue with success. It is very important to note that the choice of this non-linear method is due to the complexity and irregularity of tumor tissue that linear and classical nonlinear methods seem difficult to characterize completely. In order to show the performance of this method, we compared its results with those of the conventional method box-counting.

Keywords: irregularity, nonlinearity, MRI brain images, multifractal analysis, brain tumor

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Authors: J. H. Lv, W. Z. Wang, S.W. Liu

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The major concern in the aviation industry is the flight safety. Although great effort has been put onto the development of material and system reliability, the failure cases of fatal accidents still occur nowadays. Due to the complexity of the aviation system, and the interaction among the failure components, the failure analysis of the related equipment is a little difficult. This study focuses on surveying the failure cases in aviation, which are extracted from failure analysis journals, including Engineering Failure Analysis and Case studies in Engineering Failure Analysis, in order to obtain the failure sensitive factors or failure sensitive parts. The analytical results show that, among the failure cases, fatigue failure is the largest in number of occurrence. The most failed components are the disk, blade, landing gear, bearing, and fastener. The frequently failed materials consist of steel, aluminum alloy, superalloy, and titanium alloy. Therefore, in order to assure the safety in aviation, more attention should be paid to the fatigue failures.

Keywords: aerospace, disk, failure analysis, fatigue

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Authors: Assad Maalouf, Lunjin Lu, James Lynott

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We design and implement a precise model of string operations using finite state machine transformers and state transformers to approximate the values string variables can take throughout the execution of the program.We use our model to analyze Android program string variables. Our experimental results show that our string analysis is very efficient at detecting the contextual effect of string operations on the string variables. Our model proved to be very useful when it came to verifying statements about the string variables of the program.

Keywords: abstract interpretation, android, static analysis, string analysis

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Authors: Lei Qin

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Culture has long been recognized as a possible reason to influence travelers’ decisions, which explains why travelers in different countries make distinct decisions. Cultural distance is a concept illustrating how much difference there is between travelers’ home culture and that of the destination, but the research in distinguishing short-and-long haul travel destinations is limited. This study explored the research gap by examining the impact of cultural distance on Chinese travelers’ intentions to visit short-haul and long-haul destinations, respectively. Six cultural distance measurements, including five measurements calculated from secondary database (Kogut & Singh, Developed Kogut & Singh, Euclidean distance Index (EDI), world value survey index (WVS), social axioms measurement (SAM)) and perceived cultural distance (PCD) collected from the primary survey. Of the six measurements, culture distance has the opposite impact on Chinese outbound travelers’ intentions in the short-haul and long haul. For short-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be positive influenced by cultural distance; a possible reason is that travelers’ novelty-seeking satisfaction is greater than the strangeness obtained from overseas regions. For long-haul travel, travelers’ intentions for traveling can be negative influenced by cultural distance, a possible explanation is that travelers’ uncertainty, risk, and language concerns of farther destinations.

Keywords: cultural distance, intention, outbound travel, short-long haul

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Authors: P. Řehoř, D. Holátová, V. Doležalová

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Paper deals with analysis of strategic management methods in non-profit making organization in the Czech Republic. Strategic management represents an aggregate of methods and approaches that can be applied for managing organizations - in this article the organizations which associate owners and keepers of non-state forest properties. Authors use these methods of strategic management: analysis of stakeholders, SWOT analysis and questionnaire inquiries. The questionnaire was distributed electronically via e-mail. In October 2013 we obtained data from a total of 84 questionnaires. Based on the results the authors recommend the using of confrontation strategy which improves the competitiveness of non-profit making organizations.

Keywords: strategic management, non-profit making organization, strategy analysis, SWOT analysis, strategy, competitiveness

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Authors: Geng Cui, Naoto Imura, Katsuhiro Nishinari, Takahiro Ezaki

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The bullwhip effect, which refers to the amplification of demand variance as one moves up the supply chain, has been observed in various industries and extensively studied through analytic approaches. Existing methods to mitigate the bullwhip effect, such as decentralized demand information, vendor-managed inventory, and the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment System, rely on the willingness and ability of supply chain participants to share their information. However, in practice, information sharing is often difficult to realize due to privacy concerns. The purpose of this study is to explore new ways to mitigate the bullwhip effect without the need for information sharing. This paper proposes a 'bullwhip absorption strategy' (BAS) to alleviate the bullwhip effect by absorbing it downstream in the supply chain. To achieve this, a two-stage supply chain system was employed, consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. In each time period, the retailer receives an order generated according to an autoregressive process. Upon receiving the order, the retailer depletes the ordered amount, forecasts future demand based on past records, and places an order with the manufacturer using the order-up-to replenishment policy. The manufacturer follows a similar process. In essence, the mechanism of the model is similar to that of the beer game. The BAS is implemented at the retailer's level to counteract the bullwhip effect. This strategy requires the retailer to reduce the uncertainty in its orders, thereby absorbing the bullwhip effect downstream in the supply chain. The advantage of the BAS is that upstream participants can benefit from a reduced bullwhip effect. Although the retailer may incur additional costs, if the gain in the upstream segment can compensate for the retailer's loss, the entire supply chain will be better off. Two indicators, order variance and inventory variance, were used to quantify the bullwhip effect in relation to the strength of absorption. It was found that implementing the BAS at the retailer's level results in a reduction in both the retailer's and the manufacturer's order variances. However, when examining the impact on inventory variances, a trade-off relationship was observed. The manufacturer's inventory variance monotonically decreases with an increase in absorption strength, while the retailer's inventory variance does not always decrease as the absorption strength grows. This is especially true when the autoregression coefficient has a high value, causing the retailer's inventory variance to become a monotonically increasing function of the absorption strength. Finally, numerical simulations were conducted for verification, and the results were consistent with our theoretical analysis.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, supply chain management, inventory management, demand forecasting, order-to-up policy

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Authors: Salima Behdenna, Fatiha Barigou, Ghalem Belalem

Abstract:

Due to the quick increase in the volume of Arabic opinions posted on various social media, Arabic sentiment analysis has become one of the most important areas of research. Compared to English, there is very little works on Arabic sentiment analysis, in particular aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA). In ABSA, aspect extraction is the most important task. In this paper, we propose a semantic aspect-based sentiment analysis approach for standard Arabic reviews to extract explicit aspect terms and identify the polarity of the extracted aspects. The proposed approach was evaluated using HAAD datasets. Experiments showed that the proposed approach achieved a good level of performance compared with baseline results. The F-measure was improved by 19% for the aspect term extraction tasks and 55% aspect term polarity task.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, opinion mining, Arabic, aspect level, opinion, polarity

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