Search results for: investment decision making

Authors: Mijoh A. Gbededo, Kapila Liyanage, Sabuj Mallik

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The emerging approaches to sustainable manufacturing are considered to be solution-oriented with the aim of addressing the environmental, economic and social issues holistically. However, the analysis of the interdependencies amongst the three sustainability dimensions has not been fully captured in the literature. In a recent review of approaches to sustainable manufacturing, two categories of techniques are identified: 1) Sustainable Product Development (SPD), and 2) Sustainability Performance Assessment (SPA) techniques. The challenges of the approaches are not only related to the arguments and misconceptions of the relationships between the techniques and sustainable development but also to the inability to capture and integrate the three sustainability dimensions. This requires a clear definition of some of the approaches and a road-map to the development of a holistic approach that supports sustainability decision-making. In this context, eco-innovation, social impact assessment, and life cycle sustainability analysis play an important role. This paper deployed an integrative approach that enabled amalgamation of sustainable manufacturing approaches and the theories of reciprocity and motivation into a holistic simulation-based impact analysis framework. The findings in this research have the potential to guide sustainability analysts to capture the aspects of the three sustainability dimensions into an analytical model. Additionally, the research findings presented can aid the construction of a holistic simulation model of a sustainable manufacturing and support effective decision-making.

Keywords: life cycle sustainability analysis, sustainable manufacturing, sustainability performance assessment, sustainable product development

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Authors: Raziyeh Shamsi

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In this paper, we present a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) problem in full fuzzy case and find Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) targets. In the presented model, we are seeking the least inputs and the most outputs in the production possibility set (PPS) with the variable return to scale (VRS) assumption, so that the efficiency projection is obtained for all decision making units (DMUs). Then, we provide an algorithm for finding DEA targets interactively in the full fuzzy case, which solves the full fuzzy problem without defuzzification. Owing to the use of interactive methods, the targets obtained by our algorithm are more applicable, more realistic, and they are according to the wish of the decision maker. Finally, an application of the algorithm in 21 educational institutions is provided.

Keywords: DEA, MOLP, full fuzzy, target

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, Xia Luo

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Passenger organization has always been an essential part of China's metro operation and management. Facing the massive passenger flow, stations need to improve their intelligence and automation degree by an appropriate integrated system. Based on the existing integrated supervisory control system (ISCS) and simulation software (Anylogic), this paper designs an intelligent passenger organization system (IPOS) for metro stations. Its primary function includes passenger information acquisition, data processing and computing, visualization management, decision recommendations, and decision response based on interlocking equipment. For this purpose, the logical structure and intelligent algorithms employed are particularly devised. Besides, the structure diagram of information acquisition and application module, the application of Anylogic, the case library's function process are all given by this research. Based on the secondary development of Anylogic and existing technologies like video recognition, the IPOS is supposed to improve the response speed and address capacity in the face of emergent passenger flow of metro stations.

Keywords: anylogic software, decision-making support system, intellectualization, ISCS, passenger organization

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Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

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The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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Authors: Stephanie Aguirre Moreno, Jesús Everardo Olguín Tiznado, Claudia Camargo Wilson, Juan Andrés López Barreras

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This research work presents a proposal to evaluate the environmental performance of a Higher Education Institution (HEI) in Mexico in order to minimize their environmental impact. Given that public education has limited financial resources, it is necessary to conduct studies that support priorities in decision-making situations and thus obtain the best cost-benefit ratio of continuous improvement programs as part of the environmental management system implemented. The methodology employed, adapted from the Environmental Effect Analysis (EEA), weighs the environmental aspects identified in the environmental diagnosis by two characteristics. Number one, environmental priority through the perception of the stakeholders, compliance of legal requirements, and environmental impact of operations. Number two, the possibility of improvement, which depends of factors such as the exchange rate that will be made, the level of investment and the return time of it. The highest environmental priorities, or hot spots, identified in this evaluation were: electricity consumption, water consumption and recycling, and disposal of municipal solid waste. However, the possibility of improvement for the disposal of municipal solid waste is higher, followed by water consumption and recycling, in spite of having an equal possibility of improvement to the energy consumption, time of return and cost-benefit is much greater.

Keywords: environmental performance, environmental priority, possibility of improvement, continuous improvement programs

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Authors: Chiedza Z. Tsvakirai, Precious M. Tshabalala, Frikkie Liebenberg, Johann F. Kirsten

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Agricultural research conducted by the Agricultural Research Council has played an important role in increasing the productivity and profitability of the South African peach and nectarine industry. However, the importance of this research remains unclear to the industry stakeholders because a rate of return for this research has never been done. As a result, funding for the research at Agricultural Research Council has been waning because it is not clear how much value has been created and how much the industry stands to gain with continued research investment. Therefore, this study seeks to calculate the benefit of research investments in a bid to motivate for an increase in funding. The study utilized the supply response function to do this. The rate of return calculation revealed that agricultural research had a marginal internal rate of return of 55.9%. This means that every R1 invested yields a 56 c increase in value in the industry. Being this high, it can be concluded that investment in agricultural research is worthwhile. Thus justifies for an increase in research funding.

Keywords: Benefits of research investment, productivity.

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Authors: Alice Brites, Gerd Sparovek, Jean Paul Metzger, Ricardo Rodrigues

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The segregation between science and policy in decision making process hinders nature conservation efforts worldwide. Scientists have been criticized for not producing information that leads to effective solutions for environmental problems. In an attempt to bridge this gap between science and practice, we conducted a project aimed at supporting the implementation of the Brazilian Native Vegetation Protection Law (NVPL) implementation in São Paulo State (SP), Brazil. To do so, we conducted multiple open meetings with the stakeholders involved in this discussion. Throughout this process, we raised stakeholders' demands for scientific information and brought feedbacks about our findings. However, our main scientific advice was not taken into account during the NVPL implementation in SP. The NVPL has a mechanism that exempts landholders who converted native vegetation without offending the legislation in place at the time of the conversion from restoration requirements. We found out that there were no accurate spatialized data for native vegetation cover before the 1960s. Thus, the initial benchmark for the mechanism application should be the 1965 Brazilian Forest Act. Even so, SP kept the 1934 Brazilian Forest Act as the initial legal benchmark for the law application. This decision implies the use of a probabilistic native vegetation map that has uncertainty and subjectivity as its intrinsic characteristics, thus its use can lead to legal queries, corruption, and an unfair benefit application. But why this decision was made even after the scientific advice was vastly divulgated? We raised some possible reasons to explain it. First, the decision was made during a government transition, showing that circumstantial political events can overshadow scientific arguments. Second, the debate about the NVPL in SP was not pacified and powerful stakeholders could benefit from the confusion created by this decision. Finally, the native vegetation protection mechanism is a complex issue, with many technical aspects that can be hard to understand for a non-specialized courtroom, such as the one that made the final decision at SP. This example shows that science and decision-makers still have a long way ahead to improve their way to interact and that science needs to find its way to be heard above the political buzz.

Keywords: Brazil, forest act, science-based dialogue, science-policy interface

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Authors: S. Dhib, S. A. Addouche, T. Loukil, A. Elmhamedi

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In this paper, a reverse supply chain network is investigated for a decision making. This decision is surrounded by complex flows of returned products, due to the increasing quantity, the type of returned products and the variety of recovery option products (reuse, recycling, and refurbishment). The most important problem in the reverse logistic network (RLN) is to orient returned products to the suitable type of recovery option. However, returned products orientations from collect sources to the recovery disposition have not well considered in performance model. In this study, we propose a performance model for designing a network configuration on reverse logistics. Conceptual and analytical models are developed with taking into account operational, economic and environmental factors on designing network.

Keywords: reverse logistics, network design, performance model, open loop configuration

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Authors: M. Macchiaroli, V. Pellecchia, L. Dolores

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Within any European and world model of management of the integrated water service (in Italy only since 2012 is regulated by a national Authority, that is ARERA), a significant part is covered by the development of assets in terms of hydraulic networks and wastewater collection networks, including all their relative building works. The process of selecting the investments to be made starts from the preventive analysis of critical issues (water losses, unserved areas, low service standards, etc.) who occur in the managed territory of the Operator. Through the Program of Interventions (Provision by ARERA n. 580/2019/R/idr), the Operator provides to program the projects that can meet the emerged needs to determine the improvement of the water service levels. This phase (analyzed and solved by the author with a work published in 2019) involves the use of evaluation techniques (cost-benefit analysis, multi-criteria, and multi-objective techniques, neural networks, etc.) useful in selecting the most appropriate design answers to the different criticalities. However, at this point, the problem of establishing the time priorities between the various works deemed necessary remains open. That is, it is necessary to hierarchize the investments. In this decision-making moment, the interests of the private Operator are often opposed, which favors investments capable of generating high profitability, compared to those of the public controller (ARERA), which favors investments in greater social impact. In support of the concertation between these two actors, the protocol set out in the research has been developed, based on the AHP and capable of borrowing from the programmatic documents an orientation path for the settlement of the conflict. The protocol is applied to a case study of the Campania Region in Italy and has been professionally applied in the shared decision process between the manager and the local Authority.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision making, economic evaluation of projects, integrated water service

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Authors: Rahmi Kopar

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Legitimate expectations principle is considered one of the most dominant elements of the Fair and Equitable Treatment Standard which is today’s most relied upon treaty standard. Since its utilization by arbitral tribunals is relatively new, the contours of the legitimate expectations concept under investment treaty law have not been precisely defined yet. There are various fragmented views arising both from arbitral tribunals and scholarly writings with respect to its limits and use even though the principle is ‘firmly rooted in arbitral practice.’ International energy investments, due to their characteristics, are more prone to certain types of risks, especially the political risks. Thus, there are several mechanisms to protect an energy investment against those risks. Stabilisation is one of these investment protection methods. Stability provisions can be found under domestic legislations, as a contractual clause, or as a separate legal stability agreement. This paper will start by examining the roots of the contentious concept of legitimate expectations with reference to its application in domestic legal systems from where the doctrine under investment treaty law context was transplanted. Then the paper will turn to the investment treaty law and analyse the main contours of the doctrine as understood and applied by arbitral tribunals. 'What gives rise to the investor’s legitimate expectations?' question is answered mainly by three categories of sources: the general legal framework prevalent in a host state, the representations made by the officials or organs of a host state, and the contractual commitments. However, there is no unanimity among the arbitral tribunals and the scholars with respect to the form these sources should take. At this point, the study will discuss the sources of a stability provision and the effect of these stability provisions found in various legal sources in creating a legitimate expectation for the investor. The main questions to be discussed in this paper are as follows: a) Do the stability provisions found under different legal sources create a legitimate expectation on the investor side? b) If yes, what levels of legitimate expectations do they create? These questions will be answered mainly by reference to investment treaty jurisprudence.

Keywords: fair and equitable treatment standard, international energy investments, investment protection, legitimate expectations, stabilization

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Authors: Encarnacion Alvarez, Noemı Hidalgo-Rebollo, Juan F. Munoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

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Many companies use the technique named as acceptance sampling which consists on the inspection and decision making regarding products. According to the results derived from this method, the company takes the decision of acceptance or rejection of a product. The acceptance sampling can be applied to the technology management, since the acceptance sampling can be seen as a tool to improve the design planning, operation and control of technological products. The theoretical operating characteristic (OC) curves are widely used when dealing with acceptance sampling. In this paper, we carry out Monte Carlo simulation studies to compare numerically the empirical OC curves derived from the empirical results to the customary theoretical OC curves. We analyze various possible scenarios in such a way that the differences between the empirical and theoretical curves can be observed under different situations.

Keywords: single-sampling plan, lot, Monte Carlo simulation, quality control

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Authors: Assem El-Ansary

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This paper illustrates the event-oriented Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling approach in developing an Multi-Agent TeleRobotic Security Control System (MTSCS). The event defined in BPA is a real-life conceptual entity that is unrelated to any implementation. The major contributions of this research are the Behavioral Pattern Analysis (BPA) modeling methodology, and the development of an interactive software tool (DECISION), which is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the ELECTRE Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods.

Keywords: analysis, multi-agent, TeleRobotics control, security, modeling methodology, software modeling, event-oriented, behavioral pattern, use cases

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Authors: Charlotte Jeavons, Charitini Stavropoulous, Nicolas Drey

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Background: Over one-third of five-year-olds and almost half of all eight-year-olds in the UK have obvious caries experience that can be detected by visual screening techniques. School-based caries preventions programs to apply fluoride varnish to young children’s teeth operate in many areas in the UK. Their aim is to reduce dental caries in children. The Department of Health guidance (2009) on consent states information must be provided to parents to enable informed autonomous decision-making prior to any treatment involving their young children. Fluoride varnish schemes delivered in primary schools use letters for this purpose. Parents are expected to return these indicating their consent or refusal. A large proportion of parents do not respond. In the absence of positive consent, these children are excluded from the program. Non-response is more common in deprived areas creating inequality. The reason for this is unknown. The consent process used is underpinned by the ethical theory of deontology that is prevalent in clinical dentistry and widely accepted in bio-ethics. Objective: To investigate parents’ views, understanding and experience of the fluoride varnish program taking place in their child’s school, including their views about the practical consent arrangements. Method: Schools participating in the fluoride varnish scheme operating in Enfield, North London, were asked to take part. Parents with children in nursery, reception, or year one were invited to participate via semi-structured interviews and focus groups. Thematic analysis was conducted. Findings: 40 parents were recruited from eight schools. The global theme of ‘trust’ was identified as the strongest influence on parental responses. Six themes were identified; protecting children from harm is viewed by parents as their role, parents have the capability to decide but lack confidence, sharing responsibility for their child’s oral health with the State is welcomed by a parent, existing relationships within parents’ social networks strongly influences consent decisions, official dental information is not communicated effectively, sending a letter to parents’ and excluding them from meeting dental practitioners is ineffective. The information delivered via a letter was not strongly identified by parents as influencing their response. Conclusions: Personal contact with the person(s) providing information and requesting consent has a greater impact on parental consent responses than written information provided alone. This demonstrates that traditional bio-ethical ideas about rational decision-making where emotions are transcended and interference is not justified unless preventing harm to an unaware person are outdated. Parental decision-making is relational and the consent process should be adapted to reflect this. The current system that has a deontology view of decision making at its core impoverishes parental autonomy and may, ultimately, increase dental inequalities as a result.

Keywords: consent, decision, ethics, fluoride, parents

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Authors: Olteanu Constanta, Olteanu Lucian

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Researchers note that algebraic reasoning and sense making is essential for building conceptual knowledge in school mathematics. Consequently, pre-service teachers’ own reasoning and sense making are useful in fostering and developing students’ algebraic reasoning and sense making. This article explores the forms of reasoning and sense making that pre-service mathematics teachers exhibit and use in the process of analysing problem-posing tasks with a focus on first-degree equations. Our research question concerns the characteristics of the problem-posing tasks used for reasoning and sense making of first-degree equations as well as the characteristics of pre-service teachers’ reasoning and sense making in problem-posing tasks. The analyses are grounded in a post-structuralist philosophical perspective and variation theory. Sixty-six pre-service primary teachers participated in the study. The results show that the characteristics of reasoning in problem-posing tasks and of pre-service teachers are selecting, exploring, reconfiguring, encoding, abstracting and connecting. The characteristics of sense making in problem-posing tasks and of pre-service teachers are recognition, relationships, profiling, comparing, laddering and verifying. Beside this, the connection between reasoning and sense making is rich in line of flight in problem-posing tasks, while the connection is rich in line of rupture for pre-service teachers.

Keywords: first-degree equations, problem posing, reasoning, rhizomatic assemblage, sense-making, variation theory

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Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

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Authors: Jayanta Pokharel, Gokarna Aryal, Netra Kanaal, Chris Tsokos

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Investment in stocks and shares aims to seek potential gains while weighing the risk of future needs, such as retirement, children's education etc. Analysis of the behavior of the stock market returns and making prediction is important for investors to mitigate risk on investment. Historically, the normal variance models have been used to describe the behavior of stock market returns. However, the returns of the financial assets are actually skewed with higher kurtosis, heavier tails, and a higher center than the normal distribution. The Laplace distribution and its family are natural candidates for modeling stock returns. The Variance-Gamma (VG) distribution is the most sought-after distributions for modeling asset returns and has been extensively discussed in financial literatures. In this paper, it explore the other Laplace family, such as Asymmetric Laplace, Skewed Laplace, Kumaraswamy Laplace (KS) together with Variance-Gamma to model the weekly returns of the S&P 500 Index and it's eleven business sector indices. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the parameters of the distributions and our empirical inquiry shows that the Kumaraswamy Laplace distribution performs much better for stock returns modeling among the choice of distributions used in this study and in practice, KS can be used as a strong alternative to VG distribution.

Keywords: stock returns, variance-gamma, kumaraswamy laplace, maximum likelihood

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: Laila Akbarali

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In the small scale study, an attempt is made to explore the structure and administrative relationships adopted by Multi Campus Universities [MCU] in UK and Pakistan and how these universities deal with some selected issues with respect to student related functions. For this study, literature on multi-site, divisionalized and other complex organizations related to business and Industry was consulted and an attempt was made to empirically test the normative models in the literature with respect to centralized , deconcentrated and decentralized structures. A questionnaire was used to gather data for this study. Purposive sampling was used. The findings of this study are somewhat different for UK and Pakistan. Contrary to a substantial body of organization theory, the results show that deconcentrated and decentralized universities in the UK are prone to delays in decision making and tend not to sensitive to local needs. In Pakistan on the other hand, deconcentrated and decentralized universities are more sensitive to local needs and there are less delays in decision making. The findings suggest that distance and reporting relationships could perhaps be responsible for the contradiction. The results also suggest that there is better coordination when the subsidiary campus sub-registrar reports to the registrar. The findings also highlight, that in both contexts, leadership at the campus level remains an issue. The results suggest that there may be factors other than structure that allow universities to keep their identity intact. The study highlights that MCU are inclined to use Information Technology and develop broad policies within which they allow their campuses to operate.

Keywords: administrative relationships, Multi-Campus, organization structure, registrar

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Taha Anjamrooz, Salwa Bheiry

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The continuous increase in the world population, resource shortage and the warning of climate change cause various environmental and social issues to the world. Thus, sustainability concept is much needed nowadays. Organizations are progressively falling under strong worldwide pressure to integrate sustainability practices into their project decision-making development. Construction projects in the industry are amongst the most significant, since it is one of the biggest divisions and of main significance for the national economy and hence has a massive effect on the environment and society. So, it is important to discover approaches to incorporate sustainability into the management of those projects. This study presents a combined sustainability index of projects with sustainable transportation which has been formed as per a comprehensive literature review and survey study. Transportation systems enable the movement of goods and services worldwide, and it is leading to economic growth and creating jobs while creating negative impacts on the environment and society. This research is study to quantify the sustainability indicators, through 1) identifying the importance of sustainable transportation indicators that are based on the sustainable practices used for the construction projects and 2) measure the effectiveness of practices through these indicators on the three sustainable pillars. A total 26 sustainability indicators have been selected and grouped under each related sustainability pillars. A survey was used to collect the opinion about the sustainability indicators by a scoring system. A combined sustainability index considering three sustainable pillars can be helpful in evaluating the transportation sustainable practices of a project and making decisions regarding project selection. In addition to focus on the issue of financial resource allocation in a project selection, the decision-maker could take into account the sustainability as an important key in addition to the project’s return and risk. The purpose of this study is to measure the performance of transportation sustainability which allow companies to assess multiple projects selection. This is useful to decision makers to rank and focus more on future sustainable projects.

Keywords: sustainable transportation, transportation performances, sustainable indicators, sustainable construction practice, sustainability

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Authors: İbrahi̇m Kara, Seher Arslankaya

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Frequently preferred in the field of engineering in particular, data mining has now begun to be used in the field of health as well since the data in the health sector have reached great dimensions. With data mining, it is aimed to reveal models from the great amounts of raw data in agreement with the purpose and to search for the rules and relationships which will enable one to make predictions about the future from the large amount of data set. It helps the decision-maker to find the relationships among the data which form at the stage of decision-making. In this study, it is aimed to determine the risk of heart attack at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning with the method of data mining. Through the early and correct diagnosis of heart attacks, it is aimed to reveal the factors which affect the diseases, to protect health and choose the right treatment methods, to reduce the costs in health expenditures, and to shorten the durations of patients’ stay at hospitals. In this way, the diagnosis and treatment costs of a heart attack will be scrutinized, which will be useful to determine the risk of the disease at the first stage, to control it, and to make its resource planning.

Keywords: data mining, decision support systems, heart attack, health sector

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Authors: Phang Moon Leng

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Automated Early Warning Scores is a newly developed clinical decision tool that is used to streamline and improve the process of obtaining a patient’s vital signs so a clinical decision can be made at an earlier stage to prevent the patient from further deterioration. This technology provides immediate update on the score and clinical decision to be taken based on the outcome. This paper aims to study the use of an automated early warning score system on whether the technology has assisted the hospital in early detection and escalation of clinical condition and improve patient outcome. The hospital adopted the Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) Scoring System and MEWS Clinical Response into Philips IntelliVue Guardian Automated Early Warning Score equipment and studied whether the process has been leaned, whether the use of technology improved the usage & experience of the nurses, and whether the technology has improved patient care and outcome. It was found the steps required to obtain vital signs has been significantly reduced and is used more frequently to obtain patient vital signs. The number of deaths, and length of stay has significantly decreased as clinical decisions can be made and escalated more quickly with the Automated EWS. The automated early warning score equipment has helped improve work efficiency by removing the need for documenting into patient’s EMR. The technology streamlines clinical decision-making and allows faster care and intervention to be carried out and improves overall patient outcome which translates to better care for patient.

Keywords: automated early warning score, clinical quality and safety, patient safety, medical technology

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Authors: Jun-Ho Park, Kwang-Woo Nam, Seung-Mo Hong, Tae-Heon Moon, Sang-Ho Lee, Youn-Taik Leem

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The aim of this study was to build ‘Ubi-Net’, a decision-making support system for systematic establishment in U-City planning. We have experienced various urban problems caused by high-density development and population concentrations in established urban areas. To address these problems, a U-Service contributes to the alleviation of urban problems by providing real-time information to citizens through network connections and related information. However, technology, devices, and information for consumers are required for systematic U-Service planning in towns and cities where there are many difficulties in this regard, and a lack of reference systems. Thus, this study suggests methods to support the establishment of sustainable planning by providing comprehensive information including IT technology, devices, news, and social networking services(SNS) to U-City planners through intelligent searches. In this study, we targeted Smart U-Parking Planning to solve parking problems in an ‘old’ city. Through this study, we sought to contribute to supporting advances in U-Space and the alleviation of urban problems.

Keywords: desigin and decision support system, smart u-parking planning, social network analysis, urban engineering

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Authors: Vano Tsertsvadze, Marina Chavchanidze, Lali Khurtsia

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Problem of drug use is often seen as a combination of psychological and social problems, but this problem can be considered as economically rational decision in the process of buying pleasure (looking after children, reading, harvesting fruits in the fall, sex, eating, etc.). Before the adoption of the decisions people face to a trade-off - when someone chooses a delicious meal, she takes a completely rational decision, that the pleasure of eating has a lot more value than the pleasure which she will experience after two months diet on the summer beach showing off her beautiful body. This argument is also true for alcohol, drugs and cigarettes. Smoking has a negative effect on health, but smokers are not afraid of the threat of a lung cancer after 40 years, more valuable moment is a pleasure from smoking. Our hypothesis - unsatisfied pleasure and frustration, probably determines the risk of dependence on drug abuse. The purpose of research: 1- to determine the relative measure unit of pleasure, which will be used to measure and assess the intensity of various human pleasures. 2- to compare the intensity of the pleasure from different kinds of activity, with pleasures received from drug use. 3- Based on the analysis of data, to identify factors affecting the rational decision making. Research method: Respondents will be asked to recall the greatest pleasure of their life, which will be used as a measure of the other pleasures. The study will use focus groups and structured interviews.

Keywords: drug, drug-user, measurement, satisfaction

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Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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Authors: Mariann Veresne Somosi, Zoltan Nagy, Krisztina Varga

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Innovation is the key element of economic development and a key factor in social processes. Technical innovations can be identified as prerequisites and causes of social change and cannot be created without the renewal of society. The study of social innovation can be characterised as one of the significant research areas of our day. The study’s aim is to identify the process of social innovation, which can be defined by input, transformation, and output factors. This approach divides the social innovation process into three parts: situation analysis, implementation, follow-up. The methods associated with each stage of the process are illustrated by the chronological line of social innovation. In this study, we have sought to present methodologies that support long- and short-term decision-making that is easy to apply, have different complementary content, and are well visualised for different user groups. When applying the methods, the reference objects are different: county, district, settlement, specific organisation. The solution proposed by the study supports the development of a methodological combination adapted to different situations. Having reviewed metric and conceptualisation issues, we wanted to develop a methodological combination along with a change management logic suitable for structured support to the generation of social innovation in the case of a locality or a specific organisation. In addition to a theoretical summary, in the second part of the study, we want to give a non-exhaustive picture of the two counties located in the north-eastern part of Hungary through specific analyses and case descriptions.

Keywords: factors of social innovation, methodological combination, social innovation process, supporting decision-making

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Authors: Maryam Ziaee, Himanshu Shee, Amrik Sohal

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Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chain management has recently drawn the attention of academics and practitioners. Big data refers to a massive amount of data from different sources, in different formats, generated at high speed through transactions in business environments and supply chain networks. Traditional statistical tools and techniques find it difficult to analyse this massive data. BDA can assist organisations to capture, store, and analyse data specifically in the field of supply chain. Currently, there is a paucity of research on BDA in the pharmaceutical supply chain context. In this research, the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain was selected as the case study. This industry is highly significant since the right medicine must reach the right patients, at the right time, in right quantity, in good condition, and at the right price to save lives. However, drug shortages remain a substantial problem for hospitals across Australia with implications on patient care, staff resourcing, and expenditure. Furthermore, a massive volume and variety of data is generated at fast speed from multiple sources in pharmaceutical supply chain, which needs to be captured and analysed to benefit operational decisions at every stage of supply chain processes. As the pharmaceutical industry lags behind other industries in using BDA, it raises the question of whether the use of BDA can improve transparency among pharmaceutical supply chain by enabling the partners to make informed-decisions across their operational activities. This presentation explores the impacts of BDA on supply chain management. An exploratory qualitative approach was adopted to analyse data collected through interviews. This study also explores the BDA potential in the whole pharmaceutical supply chain rather than focusing on a single entity. Twenty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with top managers in fifteen organisations (five pharmaceutical manufacturers, five wholesalers/distributors, and five public hospital pharmacies) to investigate their views on the use of BDA. The findings revealed that BDA can enable pharmaceutical entities to have improved visibility over the whole supply chain and also the market; it enables entities, especially manufacturers, to monitor consumption and the demand rate in real-time and make accurate demand forecasts which reduce drug shortages. Timely and precise decision-making can allow the entities to source and manage their stocks more effectively. This can likely address the drug demand at hospitals and respond to unanticipated issues such as drug shortages. Earlier studies explore BDA in the context of clinical healthcare; however, this presentation investigates the benefits of BDA in the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain. Furthermore, this research enhances managers’ insight into the potentials of BDA at every stage of supply chain processes and helps to improve decision-making in their supply chain operations. The findings will turn the rhetoric of data-driven decision into a reality where the managers may opt for analytics for improved decision-making in the supply chain processes.

Keywords: big data analytics, data-driven decision, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain management

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Authors: Kamalendu Pal

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This paper describes the main features of a knowledge-based system evaluation method. System evaluation is placed in the context of a hybrid legal decision-support system, Advisory Support for Home Settlement in Divorce (ASHSD). Legal knowledge for ASHSD is represented in two forms, as rules and previously decided cases. Besides distinguishing the two different forms of knowledge representation, the paper outlines the actual use of these forms in a computational framework that is designed to generate a plausible solution for a given case, by using rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR) in an integrated environment. The nature of suitability assessment of a solution has been considered as a multiple criteria decision making process in ASHAD evaluation. The evaluation was performed by a combination of discussions and questionnaires with different user groups. The answers to questionnaires used in this evaluations method have been measured as a combination of linguistic variables, fuzzy numbers, and by using defuzzification process. The results show that the designed evaluation method creates suitable mechanism in order to improve the performance of the knowledge-based system.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, fuzzy number, legal decision-support system, linguistic variable, rule-based reasoning, system evaluation

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: decision support system, distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management

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Authors: Ellen Bryant, Virginia Behmer, Rebecca Garbed, Jeanette O’Quin, Dana Howard

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As it currently stands, veterinary care in the United States is not accessible to everyone, and veterinarians regularly face cases of clients who are unable to provide necessary care to their animals regardless of the client’s desire to do so. There is currently limited research into how veterinarians address these issues of access to care. It is apparent that veterinarians regularly utilize funding or offer discounted services to treat cases that otherwise would go without care. With need currently exceeding the amount of funds and services available, veterinarians are tasked with deciding which cases are most deserving of assistance. This mixed methods study distributed a survey to companion animal veterinarians practicing in the United States to identify current trends in how these professionals apply principles of distributive justice in the scope of veterinary medicine. Ethical frameworks identified in human bioethics research into distributive justice were presented, along with demographic questions, to identify relationships between veterinarian priorities and the scope of their practice/respective roles/geographic region. By surveying veterinarians across a wide range of specialties, practice types, and clientele this study was able to assess how priorities and opinions shift based on external factors as well as among the respondents themselves. Participants were asked not only to choose how to distribute aid between different clients and case scenarios, but also asked directly which is the best way to distribute aid when need exceeds the resources available.

Keywords: access to veterinary care, bioethics, decision-making, distributive justice, subsidized care

Procedia PDF Downloads 47