Search results for: accurate forecast

Authors: Mamatha M. N.

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Traffic problems, congested traffic, and flow management were recognized as major problems mostly in all the areas, which have caused a problem for the ambulance which carries the emergency patient. The proposed paper aims in the development of ambulance which reaches the nearby hospital faster even in heavy traffic scenario. This process is activated by implementing hardware in an ambulance as well as in traffic post thus allowing a smooth flow to the ambulance to reach the hospital in time. 1) The design of the vehicle to have a communication between ambulance and traffic post. 2)Electronic Health Record with Data-acquisition system 3)Telemetry of acquired biological parameters to the nearest hospital. Thus interfacing all these three different modules and integrating them on the ambulance could reach the hospital earlier than the present ambulance. The system is accurate and efficient of 99.8%.

Keywords: bio-telemetry, data acquisition, patient database, automatic traffic control

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Authors: Zeineb Ben Azzouz, Wahiba Ben Abdessalem Karaa

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The automated extraction of UML class diagram from natural language requirements is a highly challenging task. Many approaches, frameworks and tools have been presented in this field. Nonetheless, the experiments of these tools have shown that there is no approach that can work best all the time. In this context, we propose a new accurate approach to facilitate the automatic mapping from textual requirements to UML class diagram. Our new approach integrates the best properties of statistical Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to reduce ambiguity when analysing natural language requirements text. In addition, our approach follows the best practices defined by conceptual modelling experts to determine some patterns indispensable for the extraction of basic elements and concepts of the class diagram. Once the relevant information of class diagram is captured, a XMI document is generated and imported with a CASE tool to build the corresponding UML class diagram.

Keywords: class diagram, user’s requirements, XMI, software engineering

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Authors: Akhtar Nawaz, Sahar Noor, Iftikhar Hussain

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This paper considers advanced hybrid manufacturing planning both push and pull system in which each customer order has a due date by demand forecast and customer orders. We present a tool for model for tool development that requires an absolute due dates and customer orders in a manufacturing supply chain. It is vital for the manufacturing companies to face the problem of variations in demands, increase in varieties by maintaining safety stock and to minimize components obsolescence and uselessness. High inventory cost and low delivery lead time is expected in push type of system and on contrary high delivery lead time and low inventory cost is predicted in the pull type. For this tool for model we need an MRP system for the push and pull environment and control of inventories in push parts and lead time in the pull part. To retain process data quickly, completely and to improve responsiveness and minimize inventory cost, a tool is required to deal with the high product variance and short cycle parts. In practice, planning and scheduling are interrelated and should be solved simultaneously with supply chain to ensure that the due dates of customer orders are met. The proposed tool for model considers alternative process plans for job types, with precedence constraints for job operations. Such a tool for model has not been treated in the literature. To solve the model, tool was developed, so a new technique was required to deal with the issue of high product variance and short life cycles in assemble to order.

Keywords: hybrid manufacturing system, supply chain system, make to order, make to stock, assemble to order

Procedia PDF Downloads 558

Authors: Ramon Sancibrian, Carlos Redondo-Figuero, Maria C. Gutierrez-Diez, Esther G. Sarabia, Maria A. Benito-Gonzalez, Jose C. Manuel-Palazuelos

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In this paper, the design and evaluation of a handle for laparoscopic surgery is presented. The design of the handle is based on ergonomic principles and tries to avoid awkward postures for surgeons. The handle combines the so-called power-grip and accurate-grip in order to provide strength and accuracy in the performance of surgery. The handle is tested using both objective and subjective approaches. The objective approach uses motion capture techniques to obtain the angles of forearm, arm, wrist and hand. The muscular effort is obtained with electromyography electrodes. On the other hand, a subjective survey has been carried out using questionnaires. Results confirm that the handle is preferred by the majority of the surgeons.

Keywords: laparoscopic surgery, ergonomics, mechanical design, biomechanics

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Authors: Xiong Xie, Yuhang Chen

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Vulnerability discovery technology is a significant field of the current. In this paper, a fuzzy framework based on concolic execution has been proposed. Fuzzy test and symbolic execution are widely used in the field of vulnerability discovery technology. But each of them has its own advantages and disadvantages. During the path generation stage, path traversal algorithm based on generation is used to get more accurate path. During the constraint solving stage, dynamic concolic execution is used to avoid the path explosion. If there is external call, the concolic based on function summary is used. Experiments show that the framework can effectively improve the ability of triggering vulnerabilities and code coverage.

Keywords: concolic execution, constraint solving, fuzzy test, vulnerability discovery

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Authors: Ayako Hasegawa, Ken Ubukata

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The purpose of this study is to investigate whether corrective feedback has any significant effect on Japanese low-intermediate EFL learners’ performance on a specific set of linguistic features. The subjects are Japanese college students majoring in English. They have studied English for about 7 years, but their inter-language seems to fossilize because non-target like errors is frequently observed in traditional deductive teacher-fronted approach. It has been reported that corrective feedback plays an important role in diminishing or overcoming inter-language fossilization and achieving TL competency. Therefore, it was examined how the corrective feedback (the focus of this study was metalinguistic feedback) and self-correction raised the students’ awareness and helped them notice the gaps between their inter-language and the TL.

Keywords: written corrective feedback, fossilized error, grammar teaching, language teaching

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Authors: Sabri Serkan Gulluoglu

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It is possible with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) that the information about all natural and artificial resources on the earth is obtained taking advantage of satellite images are obtained by remote sensing techniques. However, determination of unknown sources, mapping of the distribution and efficient evaluation of resources are defined may not be possible with the original image. For this reasons, some process steps are needed like transformation, pre-processing, image enhancement and classification to provide the most accurate assessment numerically and visually. Many studies which present the phases of obtaining and processing of the satellite images have examined in the literature study. The research showed that the determination of the process steps may be followed at this subject with the existence of a common whole may provide to progress the process rapidly for the necessary and possible studies which will be.

Keywords: remote sensing, satellite imaging, gis, computer science, information

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Authors: Nguyen Huy Hoang, Do Thanh Quan, Tran Vu Kien

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The use of the active radar to measure the coordinates of ultra-light drones is frequently difficult due to long-distance, absolutely small radar cross-section (RCS) and obstacles. Since ultra-light drones are usually controlled by the Time Difference of Arrival (RF), the paper proposed a method to measure the coordinates of ultra-light drones in the space based on the arrival time of the signal at receiving antennas and the time difference of arrival (TDOA). The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is really potential and highly accurate.

Keywords: ultra-light drone, TDOA, radar cross-section (RCS), RF

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Authors: Hichem Sassi, Tawfik Najeh, Noureddine Liouane

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The localization information is crucial for the operation of WSN. There are principally two types of localization algorithms. The Range-based localization algorithm has strict requirements on hardware; thus, it is expensive to be implemented in practice. The Range-free localization algorithm reduces the hardware cost. However, it can only achieve high accuracy in ideal scenarios. In this paper, we locate unknown nodes by incorporating the advantages of these two types of methods. The proposed algorithm makes the unknown nodes select the nearest anchor using the Received Signal Strength Indicator (RSSI) and choose two other anchors which are the most accurate to achieve the estimated location. Our algorithm improves the localization accuracy compared with previous algorithms, which has been demonstrated by the simulating results.

Keywords: WSN, localization, DV-Hop, RSSI

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Authors: Jiahau Guo, Yihe Zhang

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This paper proposes solutions for pricing options on stocks paying discrete dividends in markets with daily price limits. We first extend the intraday density function of Guo and Chang (2020) to a multi-day one and use the framework of Haug et al. (2003) to value European options on stocks paying discrete dividends. Next, we adopt the fast Fourier transform (FFT) to derive accurate and efficient formulae for American options and further employ the three-point Richardson extrapolation to accelerate the computation. Finally, the accuracy of our proposed methods is verified by simulations.

Keywords: daily price limit, discrete dividend, early exercise, fast Fourier transform, multi-day density function, Richardson extrapolation

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Authors: Khaled M. El Naggar

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This paper introduces a digital method for fault section identification in transmission lines. The method uses digital set of the measured short circuit current to locate faults in electrical power systems. The digitized current is used to construct a set of overdetermined system of equations. The problem is then constructed and solved using the proposed digital optimization technique to find the fault distance. The proposed optimization methodology is an application of simulated annealing optimization technique. The method is tested using practical case study to evaluate the proposed method. The accurate results obtained show that the algorithm can be used as a powerful tool in the area of power system protection.

Keywords: optimization, estimation, faults, measurement, high voltage, simulated annealing

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Authors: Yamini Raju, Parminder S. Kang, Adam Moroz, Ross Clement, Alistair Duffy, Ashley Hopwell

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Accurate prediction of fresh produce demand is one the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME) wholesalers. Current research in this area focused on limited number of factors specific to a single product or a business type. This paper gives an overview of the current literature on the variability factors used to predict demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life products. It then extends it by adding new factors and investigating if there is a time lag and possibility of noise in the orders. It also identifies the most important factors using correlation and Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

Keywords: demand forecasting, deteriorating products, food wholesalers, principal component analysis, variability factors

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Authors: Shahin A. Abdel-Naby, Asad T. Hassan, Stuart Loch, Michael Fogle, Negil R. Badnell, Michael S. Pindzola

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Accurate and reliable laboratory astrophysical data for electron-ion recombination are needed for plasma modeling. Dielectronic recombination (DR) rate coefficients are calculated for boron-like nitrogen and oxygen ions using state-of-the-art multi-configuration Breit-Pauli atomic structure AUTOSTRUCTURE collisional package within the generalized collisional-radiative framework. The calculations are performed in intermediate coupling scheme associated with n = 0 (2  2) and n = 1 (2  3) core-excitations. Good agreements are found between the theoretically convoluted rate coefficients and the experimental measurements performed at CRYRING heavy-ion storage ring for both ions. Fitting coefficients for the rate coefficients are produced for these ions in the temperature range q2(102-107) K, where q is the ion charge before recombination.

Keywords: Atomic data, atomic processes, electron-ion collision, plasma

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Authors: Peter G. Hollis, Kim G. Clarke

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Accurate quantification of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) is ubiquitously measured in bioprocesses by analysing the response of dissolved oxygen (DO) to a step change in the oxygen partial pressure in the sparge gas using a DO probe. Typically, the response lag (τ) of the probe has been ignored in the calculation of KLa when τ is less than the reciprocal KLa, failing which a constant τ has invariably been assumed. These conventions have now been reassessed in the context of multiphase bioprocesses, such as a hydrocarbon-based system. Here, significant variation of τ in response to changes in process conditions has been documented. Experiments were conducted in a 5 L baffled stirred tank bioreactor (New Brunswick) in a simulated hydrocarbon-based bioprocess comprising a C14-20 alkane-aqueous dispersion with suspended non-viable Saccharomyces cerevisiae solids. DO was measured with a polarographic DO probe fitted with a Teflon membrane (Mettler Toledo). The DO concentration response to a step change in the sparge gas oxygen partial pressure was recorded, from which KLa was calculated using a first order model (without incorporation of τ) and a second order model (incorporating τ). τ was determined as the time taken to reach 63.2% of the saturation DO after the probe was transferred from a nitrogen saturated vessel to an oxygen saturated bioreactor and is represented as the inverse of the probe constant (KP). The relative effects of the process parameters on KP were quantified using a central composite design with factor levels typical of hydrocarbon bioprocesses, namely 1-10 g/L yeast, 2-20 vol% alkane and 450-1000 rpm. A response surface was fitted to the empirical data, while ANOVA was used to determine the significance of the effects with a 95% confidence interval. KP varied with changes in the system parameters with the impact of solid loading statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Increased solid loading reduced KP consistently, an effect which was magnified at high alkane concentrations, with a minimum KP of 0.024 s-1 observed at the highest solids loading of 10 g/L. This KP was 2.8 fold lower that the maximum of 0.0661 s-1 recorded at 1 g/L solids, demonstrating a substantial increase in τ from 15.1 s to 41.6 s as a result of differing process conditions. Importantly, exclusion of KP in the calculation of KLa was shown to under-predict KLa for all process conditions, with an error up to 50% at the highest KLa values. Accurate quantification of KLa, and therefore KP, has far-reaching impact on industrial bioprocesses to ensure these systems are not transport limited during scale-up and operation. This study has shown the incorporation of τ to be essential to ensure KLa measurement accuracy in multiphase bioprocesses. Moreover, since τ has been conclusively shown to vary significantly with process conditions, it has also been shown that it is essential for τ to be determined individually for each set of process conditions.

Keywords: effect of process conditions, measuring oxygen transfer coefficients, multiphase bioprocesses, oxygen probe response lag

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Authors: Jie Bai, Yongsheng Gao, Shengxin Wang, Jie Zhao

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Through the establishment of the elbow biomechanical model, it can provide theoretical guide for rehabilitation therapy on the upper limb of the human body. A biomechanical model of the elbow joint can be built by the connection of muscle force model and elbow dynamics. But there are many undetermined coefficients in the model like the optimal joint angle and optimal muscle force which are usually specified as the experimental parameters of other workers. Because of the individual differences, there is a certain deviation of the final result. To this end, the RMS value of the deviation between the actual angle and calculated angle is considered. A set of coefficients which lead to the minimum RMS value will be chosen to be the optimal parameters. The direct search method and the conjugacy search method are used to get the optimal parameters, thus the model can be more accurate and mode adaptability.

Keywords: elbow biomechanical model, RMS, direct search, conjugacy search

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Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

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Authors: Velly Anatasia

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In the last few decades extensive research has been conducted into information technology (IT) adoption, testing a series of factors considered to be essential for improved diffusion. Some studies analyze IT characteristics such as usefulness, ease of use and/or security, others focus on the emotions and experiences of users and a third group attempts to determine the importance of socioeconomic user characteristics such as gender, educational level and income. The situation is similar regarding e-commerce, where the majority of studies have taken for granted the importance of including these variables when studying e-commerce adoption, as these were believed to explain or forecast who buys or who will buy on the internet. Nowadays, the internet has become a marketplace suitable for all ages and incomes and both genders and thus the prejudices linked to the advisability of selling certain products should be revised. The objective of this study is to test whether the socioeconomic characteristics of experienced e-shoppers such as gender rally moderate the effect of their perceptions of online shopping behavior. Current development of the online environment and the experience acquired by individuals from previous e-purchases can attenuate or even nullify the effect of these characteristics. The individuals analyzed are experienced e-shoppers i.e. individuals who often make purchases on the internet. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was broadened to include previous use of the internet and perceived self-efficacy. The perceptions and behavior of e-shoppers are based on their own experiences. The information obtained will be tested using questionnaires which were distributed and self-administered to respondent accustomed using internet. The causal model is estimated using structural equation modeling techniques (SEM), followed by tests of the moderating effect of socioeconomic variables on perceptions and online shopping behavior. The expected findings of this study indicated that gender moderate neither the influence of previous use of the internet nor the perceptions of e-commerce. In short, they do not condition the behavior of the experienced e-shopper.

Keywords: Internet shopping, age groups, gender, income, electronic commerce

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Authors: Jamal A. Gledan, Othman A. Azzeidani

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During the last decade, Libya established a new Geodetic Datum called Libyan Geodetic Datum 2006 (LGD 2006) by using GPS, whereas the ground traversing method was used to establish the last Libyan datum which was called the Europe Libyan Datum 79 (ELD79). The current research paper introduces ELD79 to LGD2006 coordinate transformation technique, the accurate comparison of transformation between multiple regression equations and the three-parameters model (Bursa-Wolf). The results had been obtained show that the overall accuracy of stepwise multi regression equations is better than that can be determined by using Bursa-Wolf transformation model.

Keywords: geodetic datum, horizontal control points, traditional similarity transformation model, unconventional transformation techniques

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Authors: Ilya Kavalchuk, Hayrettin Arisoy, Alex Stojcevski, Aman Maun Than Oo

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Electric vehicles are one of the most complicated electric devices to simulate due to the significant number of different processes involved in electrical structure of it. There are concurrent processes of energy consumption and generation with different onboard systems, which make simulation tasks more complicated to perform. More accurate simulation on energy consumption can provide a better understanding of all energy management for electric transport. As a result of all those processes, electric transport can allow for a more sustainable future and become more convenient in relation to the distance range and recharging time. This paper discusses the problems of energy consumption simulations for electric vehicles using different software packages to provide ideas on how to make this process more precise, which can help engineers create better energy management strategies for electric vehicles.

Keywords: electric vehicles, EV, power consumption, power management, simulation

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Authors: Humanyun Zahir, Irtsam Ghazi

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This report outlines the basic installation and operation of magnetic inductive flow velocity sensors on large underground cooling water pipelines. Research on the effects of cathodic protection as well as into other factors that might influence the overall performance of the meter are presented in this paper. The experiments were carried out on an immersion type magnetic meter specially used for flow measurement of cooling water pipeline. An attempt has been made in this paper to outline guidelines that can ensure accurate measurement related to immersion type magnetic meters on underground pipelines.

Keywords: magnetic induction, flow meter, Faraday's law, immersion, cathodic protection, anode, cathode, flange, grounding, plant information management system, electrodes

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Authors: Vishal D. Pandya

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A great deal of perceptible change has been taking place in the way our institutions of higher learning are being managed in India today. It is believed that managers, whose intuition proves to be accurate, often tend to be the most successful, and this is what makes them almost like entrepreneurs. A certain entrepreneurial spirit is what is expected and requires a degree of insight of the manager to be successful depending upon the situational and more importantly, the heterogeneity as well as the socio-cultural aspect. Teachers in Higher Education have to play multiple roles to make sure that the Learning-Teaching process becomes effective in the real sense of the term. This paper makes an effort to take a close look at that, especially in the context of the management of English language teaching in Higher Education and, therefore, focuses on the management of English language teaching in higher education by understanding target situation analyses at the socio-cultural level.

Keywords: management, language teaching, English language teaching, higher education

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Authors: Abdullah Al Farwan, Ya Zhang

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In today’s educational arena, it is critical to understand educational data and be able to evaluate important aspects, particularly data on student achievement. Educational Data Mining (EDM) is a research area that focusing on uncovering patterns and information in data from educational institutions. Teachers, if they are able to predict their students' class performance, can use this information to improve their teaching abilities. It has evolved into valuable knowledge that can be used for a wide range of objectives; for example, a strategic plan can be used to generate high-quality education. Based on previous data, this paper recommends employing data mining techniques to forecast students' final grades. In this study, five data mining methods, Decision Tree, JRip, Naive Bayes, Multi-layer Perceptron, and Random Forest with wrapper feature selection, were used on two datasets relating to Portuguese language and mathematics classes lessons. The results showed the effectiveness of using data mining learning methodologies in predicting student academic success. The classification accuracy achieved with selected algorithms lies in the range of 80-94%. Among all the selected classification algorithms, the lowest accuracy is achieved by the Multi-layer Perceptron algorithm, which is close to 70.45%, and the highest accuracy is achieved by the Random Forest algorithm, which is close to 94.10%. This proposed work can assist educational administrators to identify poor performing students at an early stage and perhaps implement motivational interventions to improve their academic success and prevent educational dropout.

Keywords: classification algorithms, decision tree, feature selection, multi-layer perceptron, Naïve Bayes, random forest, students’ academic performance

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Urban flooding is a common occurrence throughout Asia. Almost every city is vulnerable to urban floods in some fashion, and city people are particularly vulnerable. Pluvial and fluvial flooding are the most prominent causes of urban flooding in the Gomti Nagar region of Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India. The pluvial flooding is regarded to be less damaging because it is caused by heavy rainfall, Seasonal rainfall fluctuations, water flows off concrete infrastructures, blockages of the drainage system, and insufficient drainage capacity or low infiltration capacity. However, this study considers pluvial flooding in Lucknow to be a significant source of cumulative damage over time, and the risks of such events are increasing as a result of changes in ageing infrastructure, hazard exposure, rapid urbanization, massive water logging and global warming. As a result, urban flooding has emerged as a critical field of study. The popularity of analytical approaches to project the spatial extent of flood dangers has skyrocketed. To address future urban flood resilience, more effort is needed to enhance both hydrodynamic models and analytical tools to simulate risks under present and forecast conditions. Proper urban planning with drainage system and ample space for high infiltration capacity are required to reduce urban flooding. A better India with no urban flooding is a pipe dream that can be realized by putting household rooftop rainwater collection systems in every structure. According to the current study, domestic RTRWHs are strongly recommended as an alternative source of water, as well as to prevent surface runoff and urban floods in this region of Lucknow, urban areas of India.

Keywords: rooftop rainwater harvesting, urban flood, pluvial flooding, fluvial flooding

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Authors: Sunusi Tijjani

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Information and communication technology is an indispensable tool in the performance of office technology managers. Today's offices are automated and equipped with modern office machines that enhances and improve the work of office managers. However, today's office technology managers can process, evaluate, manage and communicate all forms of information using technological devices. Information and Communication Technology is viewed as the process of processing, storing ad dissemination information while office technology managers are trained professional who can effectively operate modern office machines, perform administrative duties and attend meetings to take dawn minute of meetings. This paper examines the importance of information and communication technology toward enhancing the work of office managers. It also stresses the importance of information and communication technology toward proper and accurate record management.

Keywords: communication, information, technology, managers

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Authors: Ammar Alrefaei

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Sporting directors in football clubs plays a prominent and important role in managing and controlling many issues related to the affairs of professional players. In view of this great importance of the role of the sporting directors, the Saudi regulation of the professional players and their transfers took over the organization and control of many aspects related to the conditions that must be met by the sporting director and the obligations that fall on his responsibility with the sport club or the Saudi Football Association. However, this regulation does not avoid ambiguity at times and shortcomings at other times in many places, as some of the texts contained in regulation raise many questions, some of which point out to the need to find more comprehensive and accurate treatment than those in the current regulations, accordingly this study comes to shed light on the aspects related to the sporting directors in sport clubs and the development of provisions.

Keywords: professional contract, sporting directors, professional player, labor law

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Authors: S. Ghafoori, A. Al-Harbi, B. Al-Ajmi, A. Al-Shaalan, A. Al-Ajmi, M. Ali Juma

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Seismic methods play an important role in the exploration for hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the success of the method depends strongly on the reliability of the measured or predicted information regarding the velocity of sound in the media. Speed of sound has been used to study the thermodynamic properties of fluids. In this study, experimental data are reported and analyzed on the speed of sound in toluene and octane binary mixture. Three-factor three-level Box-Benhkam design is used to determine the significance of each factor, the synergetic effects of the factors, and the most significant factors on speed of sound. The developed mathematical model and statistical analysis provided a critical analysis of the simultaneous interactive effects of the independent variables indicating that the developed quadratic models were highly accurate and predictive.

Keywords: experimental design, octane, speed of sound, toluene

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Authors: Soo-Yong Cho, Chong-Hyun Cho, Chae-Whan Rim, Sang-Kyu Choi, Jin-Gyun Kim, Ju-Seok Nam

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Recently, vertical axis wind turbines (VAWT) have been widely used to produce electricity even in urban. They have several merits such as low sound noise, easy installation of the generator and simple structure without yaw-control mechanism and so on. However, their blades are operated under the influence of the trailing vortices generated by the preceding blades. This phenomenon deteriorates its output power and makes difficulty predicting correctly its performance. In order to improve the performance of VAWT, wind power towers can be applied. Usually, the wind power tower can be constructed as a multi-story building to increase the frontal area of the wind stream. Hence, multiple sets of the VAWT can be installed within the wind power tower, and they can be operated at high elevation. Many different types of wind power tower can be used in the field. In this study, a wind power tower with circular column shape was applied, and the VAWT was installed at the center of the wind power tower. Seven guide walls were used as a strut between the floors of the wind power tower. These guide walls were utilized not only to increase the wind velocity within the wind power tower but also to adjust the wind direction for making a better working condition on the VAWT. Hence, some important design variables, such as the distance between the wind turbine and the guide wall, the outer diameter of the wind power tower, the direction of the guide wall against the wind direction, should be considered to enhance the output power on the VAWT. A numerical analysis was conducted to find the optimum dimension on design variables by using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) among many prediction methods. The CFD could be an accurate prediction method compared with the stream-tube methods. In order to obtain the accurate results in the CFD, it needs the transient analysis and the full three-dimensional (3-D) computation. However, this full 3-D CFD could be hard to be a practical tool because it requires huge computation time. Therefore, the reduced computational domain is applied as a practical method. In this study, the computations were conducted in the reduced computational domain and they were compared with the experimental results in the literature. It was examined the mechanism of the difference between the experimental results and the computational results. The computed results showed this computational method could be an effective method in the design methodology using the optimization algorithm. After validation of the numerical method, the CFD on the wind power tower was conducted with the important design variables affecting the performance of VAWT. The results showed that the output power of the VAWT obtained using the wind power tower was increased compared to them obtained without the wind power tower. In addition, they showed that the increased output power on the wind turbine depended greatly on the dimension of the guide wall.

Keywords: CFD, performance, VAWT, wind power tower

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Authors: Jonathan J. Burson

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With the rise of virtually costless, mobile-based trading platforms, stock market trading activity has increased significantly over the past decade, particularly for the millennial generation. This increased stock market attention, combined with the recent market turmoil due to the economic upset caused by COVID-19, make the topics of market-timing and forecasting particularly relevant. While the overall stock market saw an unprecedented, historically-long bull market from March 2009 to February 2020, the end of that bull market reignited a search by investors for a way to reduce risk and increase return. Similar searches for outperformance occurred in the early, and late 2000’s as the Dotcom bubble burst and the Great Recession led to years of negative returns for mean-variance, index investors. Extensive research has been conducted on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, macroeconomic indicators, microeconomic indicators, and other techniques—all using different methodologies and investment periods—in pursuit of higher returns with lower risk. The enormous variety of timeframes, data, and methodologies used by the diverse forecasting methods makes it difficult to compare the outcome of each method directly to other methods. This paper establishes a process to evaluate the market-timing methods in an apples-to-apples manner based on simplicity, performance, and feasibility. Preliminary findings show that certain technical analysis models provide a higher return with lower risk when compared to the buy-and-hold method and to other market-timing strategies. Furthermore, technical analysis models tend to be easier for individual investors both in terms of acquiring the data and in analyzing it, making technical analysis-based market-timing methods the preferred choice for retail investors.

Keywords: buy-and-hold, forecast, market-timing, probit, technical analysis

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Authors: I. Sagaama, A. Kechiche, W. Trojet, F. Kamoun

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Replacing combustion engine vehicles by electric vehicles (EVs) is a major step in recent years due to their potential benefits. Battery autonomy and charging processes are still a big issue for that kind of vehicles. Therefore, reducing the energy consumption of electric vehicles becomes a necessity. Many researches target introducing recent information and communication technologies in EVs in order to propose reducing energy consumption services. Evaluation of realistic scenarios is a big challenge nowadays. In this paper, we will elaborate a state of the art of different proposed energy consumption models in the literature, then we will present a comparative study of these models, finally, we will extend previous works in order to propose an accurate and realistic energy model for calculating instantaneous power consumption of electric vehicles.

Keywords: electric vehicle, vehicular networks, energy models, traffic simulation

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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