Search results for: exchange bias
1532 Empirical Study of Running Correlations in Exam Marks: Same Statistical Pattern as Chance
Authors: Weisi Guo
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It is well established that there may be running correlations in sequential exam marks due to students sitting in the order of course registration patterns. As such, a random and non-sequential sampling of exam marks is a standard recommended practice. Here, the paper examines a large number of exam data stretching several years across different modules to see the degree to which it is true. Using the real mark distribution as a generative process, it was found that random simulated data had no more sequential randomness than the real data. That is to say, the running correlations that one often observes are statistically identical to chance. Digging deeper, it was found that some high running correlations have students that indeed share a common course history and make similar mistakes. However, at the statistical scale of a module question, the combined effect is statistically similar to the random shuffling of papers. As such, there may not be the need to take random samples for marks, but it still remains good practice to mark papers in a random sequence to reduce the repetitive marking bias and errors.Keywords: data analysis, empirical study, exams, marking
Procedia PDF Downloads 1801531 Evaluating the Suitability and Performance of Dynamic Modulus Predictive Models for North Dakota’s Asphalt Mixtures
Authors: Duncan Oteki, Andebut Yeneneh, Daba Gedafa, Nabil Suleiman
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Most agencies lack the equipment required to measure the dynamic modulus (|E*|) of asphalt mixtures, necessitating the need to use predictive models. This study compared measured |E*| values for nine North Dakota asphalt mixes using the original Witczak, modified Witczak, and Hirsch models. The influence of temperature on the |E*| models was investigated, and Pavement ME simulations were conducted using measured |E*| and predictions from the most accurate |E*| model. The results revealed that the original Witczak model yielded the lowest Se/Sy and highest R² values, indicating the lowest bias and highest accuracy, while the poorest overall performance was exhibited by the Hirsch model. Using predicted |E*| as inputs in the Pavement ME generated conservative distress predictions compared to using measured |E*|. The original Witczak model was recommended for predicting |E*| for low-reliability pavements in North Dakota.Keywords: asphalt mixture, binder, dynamic modulus, MEPDG, pavement ME, performance, prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 441530 Evaluating Hourly Sulphur Dioxide and Ground Ozone Simulated with the Air Quality Model in Lima, Peru
Authors: Odón R. Sánchez-Ccoyllo, Elizabeth Ayma-Choque, Alan Llacza
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Sulphur dioxide (SO₂) and surface-ozone (O₃) concentrations are associated with diseases. The objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the air-quality-WRF-Chem model with a horizontal resolution of 5 km x 5 km. For this purpose, the measurements of the hourly SO₂ and O₃ concentrations available in three air quality monitoring stations in Lima, Peru were used for the purpose of validating the simulations of the SO₂ and O₃ concentrations obtained with the WRF-Chem model in February 2018. For the quantitative evaluation of the simulations of these gases, statistical techniques were implemented, such as the average of the simulations; the average of the measurements; the Mean Bias (MeB); the Mean Error (MeE); and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results of these statistical metrics indicated that the simulated SO₂ and O₃ values over-predicted the SO₂ and O₃ measurements. For the SO₂ concentration, the MeB values varied from 0.58 to 26.35 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 8.75 to 26.5 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 13.3 to 31.79 µg/m³; while for O₃ concentrations the statistical values of the MeB varied from 37.52 to 56.29 µg/m³; the MeE values varied from 37.54 to 56.70 µg/m³; the RMSE values varied from 43.05 to 69.56 µg/m³.Keywords: ground-ozone, lima, sulphur dioxide, WRF-chem
Procedia PDF Downloads 1351529 Reflections on Mechanism of Foreign Teachers’ Administration in Colleges and Universities in China
Authors: YangHui
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Foreign teachers play an important role in the process of internationalization of higher education in China. Based on the method of literature analysis, firstly study the contents about the mechanism of the foreign teachers’ administration in our country, then secondly analyze the main barriers of the foreign teacher’s administration mechanism. Finally, it is suggested that the international exchange department in universities should constantly improve the employment mechanism, training mechanism, appraisal mechanism and incentive mechanism to promote the internationalization of higher education.Keywords: internationalization of higher education, mechanism, administration of foreign teachers, colleges and universities, China
Procedia PDF Downloads 4761528 Research Networks and Knowledge Sharing: An Exploratory Study of Aquaculture in Europe
Authors: Zeta Dooly, Aidan Duane
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The collaborative European funded research and development landscape provides prime environmental conditions for multi-disciplinary teams to learn and enhance their knowledge beyond the capability of training and learning within their own organisation cocoons. Whilst the emergence of the academic entrepreneur has changed the focus of educational institutions to that of quasi-businesses, the training and professional development of lecturers and academic staff are often not formalised to the same level as industry. This research focuses on industry and academic collaborative research funded by the European Commission. The impact of research is scalable if an optimum research network is created and managed effectively. This paper investigates network embeddedness, the nature of relationships, links, and nodes within a research network, and the enhancement of the network’s knowledge. The contribution of this paper extends our understanding of establishing and maintaining effective collaborative research networks. The effects of network embeddedness are recognized in the literature as pertinent to innovation and the economy. Network theory literature claims that networks are essential to innovative clusters such as Silicon valley and innovation in high tech industries. This research provides evidence to support the impact collaborative research has on the disparate individuals toward their innovative contributions to their organisations and their own professional development. This study adopts a qualitative approach and uncovers some of the challenges of multi-disciplinary research through case study insights. The contribution of this paper recommends the establishment of scaffolding to accommodate cooperation in research networks, role appointment, and addressing contextual complexities early to avoid problem cultivation. Furthermore, it suggests recommendations in relation to network formation, intra-network challenges in relation to open data, competition, friendships, and competency enhancement. The network capability is enhanced by the adoption of the relevant theories; network theory, open innovation, and social exchange, with the understanding that the network structure has an impact on innovation and social exchange in research networks. The research concludes that there is an opportunity to deepen our understanding of the impact of network reuse and network hoping that provides scaffolding for the network members to enhance and build upon their knowledge using a progressive approach.Keywords: research networks, competency building, network theory, case study
Procedia PDF Downloads 1251527 Risk Factors of Becoming NEET Youth in Iran: A Machine Learning Approach
Authors: Hamed Rahmani, Wim Groot
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The term "youth not in employment, education or training (NEET)" refers to a combination of youth unemployment and school dropout. This study investigates the variables that increase the risk of becoming NEET in Iran. A selection bias-adjusted Probit model was employed using machine learning to identify these risk factors. We used cross-sectional data obtained from the Statistical Centre of Iran and the Ministry of Cooperatives Labour and Social Welfare that was taken from the labour force survey conducted in the spring of 2021. We look at years of education, work experience, housework, the number of children under the age of six in the home, family education, birthplace, and the amount of land owned by households. Results show that hours spent performing domestic chores enhance the likelihood of youth becoming NEET, and years of education and years of potential work experience decrease the chance of being NEET. The findings also show that female youth born in cities were less likely than those born in rural regions to become NEET.Keywords: NEET youth, probit, CART, machine learning, unemployment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1061526 Investigating the Relationship between Growth, Beta and Liquidity
Authors: Zahra Amirhosseini, Mahtab Nameni
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The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between growth, beta, and Company's cash. We calculate cash as dependent variable and growth opportunity and beta as independent variables. This study was based on an analysis of panel data. Population of the study is the companies which listed in Tehran Stock exchange and a financial data of 215 companies during the period 2010 to 2015 have been selected as the sample through systematic sampling. The results of the first hypothesis showed there is a significant relationship between growth opportunities cash holdings. Also according to the analysis done in the second hypothesis, we determined that there is an inverse relation between company risk and cash holdings.Keywords: growth, beta, liquidity, company
Procedia PDF Downloads 3931525 To Smile or Not to Smile: How Engendered Facial Cues affect Hiring Decisions
Authors: Sabrina S. W. Chan, Emily Schwartzman, Nicholas O. Rule
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Past literature showed mixed findings on how smiling affects a person’s chance of getting hired. On one hand, smiling suggests enthusiasm, cooperativeness, and enthusiasm, which can elicit positive impressions. On the other hand, smiling can suggest weaker professionalism or a filler to hide nervousness, which can lower a candidate’s perceived competence. Emotion expressions can also be perceived differently depending on the person’s gender and can activate certain gender stereotypes. Women especially face a double bind with respect to hiring decisions and smiling. Because women are socially expected to smile more, those who do not smile will be considered stereotype incongruent. This becomes a noisy signal to employers and may lower their chance of being hired. However, women’s smiling as a formality may also be an obstacle. They are more likely to put on fake smiles; but if they do, they are also likely to be perceived as inauthentic and over-expressive. This paper sought to investigate how smiling affects hiring decisions, and whether this relationship is moderated by gender. In Study 1, participants were shown a series of smiling and emotionally neutral face images, incorporated into fabricated LinkedIn profiles. Participants were asked to rate how hireable they thought that candidate was. Results showed that participants rated smiling candidates as more hireable than nonsmiling candidates, and that there was no difference in gender. Moreover, individuals who did not study business were more biased in their perceptions than those who did. Since results showed a trending favoritism over female targets, in suspect of desirability bias, a second study was conducted to collect implicit measures behind the decision-making process. In Study 2, a mouse-tracking design was adopted to explore whether participants’ implicit attitudes were different from their explicit responses on hiring. Participants asked to respond whether they would offer an interview to a candidate. Findings from Study 1 was replicated in that smiling candidates received more offers than neutral-faced candidates. Results also showed that female candidates received significantly more offers than male candidates but was associated with higher attractiveness ratings. There were no significant findings in reaction time or change of decisions. However, stronger hesitation was detected for responses made towards neutral targets when participants perceived the given position as masculine, implying a conscious attempt of making situational judgments (e.g., considering candidate’s personality and job fit) to override automatic processing (evaluations based on attractiveness). Future studies would look at how these findings differ for positions which are stereotypically masculine (e.g., surgeons) and stereotypically feminine (e.g., kindergarten teachers). Current findings have strong implications for developing bias-free hiring policies in workplace, especially for organizations who maintain online/hybrid working arrangements in the post-pandemic era. This also bridges the literature gap between face perception and gender discrimination, highlighting how engendered facial cues can affect individual’s career development and organization’s success in diversity and inclusion.Keywords: engendered facial cues, face perception, gender stereotypes, hiring decisions, smiling, workplace discrimination
Procedia PDF Downloads 1331524 The Perils of Flagging Pirates: How Gender, False Consensus and Normative Messages Influence Digital Piracy Intentions
Authors: Kate Whitman, Zahra Murad, Joe Cox, Adam Cox
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This study investigates the influence of normative communications on digital piracy intentions. Although descriptive norms are thought to influence behavior, the study examines the potential bias in one's own behavior, leading to false consensus—a phenomenon perpetuating undesirable activities. The research tests the presence of false consensus and the effect of correcting normative predictions on changes in piracy intentions, examining gender differences. Results from a controlled experiment (N = 684) indicate that normative communications, reflecting the "real" norm based on government data (N=5000), increase (decrease) piracy intentions among men (women) underestimating their peers' behavior. Conversely, neither men nor women overestimating their peers' piracy show any notable change in intentions. Considering men consume more illegal content than women, suggesting they pose a higher risk, the study highlights the need for cautious use of normative communications. Therefore, policymakers should minimize the visibility of piracy behavior for effective digital piracy management.Keywords: digital piracy, false consensus, normative interventions, persuasive messages
Procedia PDF Downloads 571523 On the Bias and Predictability of Asylum Cases
Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats
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An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining
Procedia PDF Downloads 921522 Modelling Fluoride Pollution of Groundwater Using Artificial Neural Network in the Western Parts of Jharkhand
Authors: Neeta Kumari, Gopal Pathak
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Artificial neural network has been proved to be an efficient tool for non-parametric modeling of data in various applications where output is non-linearly associated with input. It is a preferred tool for many predictive data mining applications because of its power , flexibility, and ease of use. A standard feed forward networks (FFN) is used to predict the groundwater fluoride content. The ANN model is trained using back propagated algorithm, Tansig and Logsig activation function having varying number of neurons. The models are evaluated on the basis of statistical performance criteria like Root Mean Squarred Error (RMSE) and Regression coefficient (R2), bias (mean error), Coefficient of variation (CV), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the index of agreement (IOA). The results of the study indicate that Artificial neural network (ANN) can be used for groundwater fluoride prediction in the limited data situation in the hard rock region like western parts of Jharkhand with sufficiently good accuracy.Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), FFN (Feed-forward network), backpropagation algorithm, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, groundwater fluoride contamination
Procedia PDF Downloads 5481521 Central African Republic Government Recruitment Agency Based on Identity Management and Public Key Encryption
Authors: Koyangbo Guere Monguia Michel Alex Emmanuel
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In e-government and especially recruitment, many researches have been conducted to build a trustworthy and reliable online or application system capable to process users or job applicant files. In this research (Government Recruitment Agency), cloud computing, identity management and public key encryption have been used to management domains, access control authorization mechanism and to secure data exchange between entities for reliable procedure of processing files.Keywords: cloud computing network, identity management systems, public key encryption, access control and authorization
Procedia PDF Downloads 3571520 A Review of Existing Turnover Intention Theories
Authors: Pauline E. Ngo-Henha
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Existing turnover intention theories are reviewed in this paper. This review was conducted with the help of the search keyword “turnover intention theories” in Google Scholar during the month of July 2017. These theories include: The Theory of Organizational Equilibrium (TOE), Social Exchange Theory, Job Embeddedness Theory, Herzberg’s Two-Factor Theory, the Resource-Based View, Equity Theory, Human Capital Theory, and the Expectancy Theory. One of the limitations of this review paper is that data were only collected from Google Scholar where many papers were sometimes not freely accessible. However, this paper attempts to contribute to the research in clarifying the distinction between theories and models in the context of turnover intention.Keywords: Literature Review, Theory, Turnover, Turnover intention
Procedia PDF Downloads 4541519 Depth-Averaged Modelling of Erosion and Sediment Transport in Free-Surface Flows
Authors: Thomas Rowan, Mohammed Seaid
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A fast finite volume solver for multi-layered shallow water flows with mass exchange and an erodible bed is developed. This enables the user to solve a number of complex sediment-based problems including (but not limited to), dam-break over an erodible bed, recirculation currents and bed evolution as well as levy and dyke failure. This research develops methodologies crucial to the under-standing of multi-sediment fluvial mechanics and waterway design. In this model mass exchange between the layers is allowed and, in contrast to previous models, sediment and fluid are able to transfer between layers. In the current study we use a two-step finite volume method to avoid the solution of the Riemann problem. Entrainment and deposition rates are calculated for the first time in a model of this nature. In the first step the governing equations are rewritten in a non-conservative form and the intermediate solutions are calculated using the method of characteristics. In the second stage, the numerical fluxes are reconstructed in conservative form and are used to calculate a solution that satisfies the conservation property. This method is found to be considerably faster than other comparative finite volume methods, it also exhibits good shock capturing. For most entrainment and deposition equations a bed level concentration factor is used. This leads to inaccuracies in both near bed level concentration and total scour. To account for diffusion, as no vertical velocities are calculated, a capacity limited diffusion coefficient is used. The additional advantage of this multilayer approach is that there is a variation (from single layer models) in bottom layer fluid velocity: this dramatically reduces erosion, which is often overestimated in simulations of this nature using single layer flows. The model is used to simulate a standard dam break. In the dam break simulation, as expected, the number of fluid layers utilised creates variation in the resultant bed profile, with more layers offering a higher deviation in fluid velocity . These results showed a marked variation in erosion profiles from standard models. The overall the model provides new insight into the problems presented at minimal computational cost.Keywords: erosion, finite volume method, sediment transport, shallow water equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 2161518 Application of Benford's Law in Analysis of Frankfurt Stock Exchange Index (DAX) Percentage Changes
Authors: Mario Zgela
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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market
Procedia PDF Downloads 2891517 Corporate Governance and Bank Performance: A Study of Selected Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria
Authors: Ayodele Ajayi, John Ajayi
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This paper investigates the effect of corporate governance with a view to determining the relationship between board size and bank performance. Data for the study were obtained from the audited financial statements of five sampled banks listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Panel data technique was adopted and analysis was carried out with the use of multiple regression and pooled ordinary least square. Results from the study show that the larger the board size, the greater the profit implying that corporate governance is positively correlated with bank performance.Keywords: corporate governance, banks performance, board size, pooled data
Procedia PDF Downloads 3581516 Models Comparison for Solar Radiation
Authors: Djelloul Benatiallah
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Due to the current high consumption and recent industry growth, the depletion of fossil and natural energy supplies like oil, gas, and uranium is declining. Due to pollution and climate change, there needs to be a swift switch to renewable energy sources. Research on renewable energy is being done to meet energy needs. Solar energy is one of the renewable resources that can currently meet all of the world's energy needs. In most parts of the world, solar energy is a free and unlimited resource that can be used in a variety of ways, including photovoltaic systems for the generation of electricity and thermal systems for the generation of heatfor the residential sector's production of hot water. In this article, we'll conduct a comparison. The first step entails identifying the two empirical models that will enable us to estimate the daily irradiations on a horizontal plane. On the other hand, we compare it using the data obtained from measurements made at the Adrar site over the four distinct seasons. The model 2 provides a better estimate of the global solar components, with an absolute mean error of less than 7% and a correlation coefficient of more than 0.95, as well as a relative coefficient of the bias error that is less than 6% in absolute value and a relative RMSE that is less than 10%, according to a comparison of the results obtained by simulating the two models.Keywords: solar radiation, renewable energy, fossil, photovoltaic systems
Procedia PDF Downloads 771515 A Genetic Algorithm Based Ensemble Method with Pairwise Consensus Score on Malware Cacophonous Labels
Authors: Shih-Yu Wang, Shun-Wen Hsiao
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In the field of cybersecurity, there exists many vendors giving malware samples classified results, namely naming after the label that contains some important information which is also called AV label. Lots of researchers relay on AV labels for research. Unfortunately, AV labels are too cluttered. They do not have a fixed format and fixed naming rules because the naming results were based on each classifiers' viewpoints. A way to fix the problem is taking a majority vote. However, voting can sometimes create problems of bias. Thus, we create a novel ensemble approach which does not rely on the cacophonous naming result but depend on group identification to aggregate everyone's opinion. To achieve this purpose, we develop an scoring system called Pairwise Consensus Score (PCS) to calculate result similarity. The entire method architecture combine Genetic Algorithm and PCS to find maximum consensus in the group. Experimental results revealed that our method outperformed the majority voting by 10% in term of the score.Keywords: genetic algorithm, ensemble learning, malware family, malware labeling, AV labels
Procedia PDF Downloads 841514 Effect of Climate Change on Rainfall Induced Failures for Embankment Slopes in Timor-Leste
Authors: Kuo Chieh Chao, Thishani Amarathunga, Sangam Shrestha
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Rainfall induced slope failures are one of the most damaging and disastrous natural hazards which occur frequently in the world. This type of sliding mainly occurs in the zone above the groundwater level in silty/sandy soils. When the rainwater begins to infiltrate into the vadose zone of the soil, the negative pore-water pressure tends to decrease and reduce the shear strength of soil material. Climate change has resulted in excessive and unpredictable rainfall in all around the world, resulting in landslides with dire consequences to human lives and infrastructure. Such problems could be overcome by examining in detail the causes for such slope failures and recommending effective repair plans for vulnerable locations by considering future climatic change. The selected area for this study is located in the road rehabilitation section from Maubara to Mota Ain road in Timor-Leste. Slope failures and cracks have occurred in 2013 and after repairs reoccurred again in 2017 subsequent to heavy rains. Both observed and future predicted climate data analyses were conducted to understand the severe precipitation conditions in past and future. Observed climate data were collected from NOAA global climate data portal. CORDEX data portal was used to collect Regional Climate Model (RCM) future predicted climate data. Both observed and RCM data were extracted to location-based data using ArcGIS Software. Linear scaling method was used for the bias correction of future data and bias corrected climate data were assigned to GeoStudio Software. Precipitations of wet seasons (December to March ) in 2007 to 2013 is higher than 2001-2006 period and it is more than nearly 40% higher precipitation than usual monthly average precipitation of 160mm.The results of seepage analyses which were carried out using SEEP/W model with observed climate, clearly demonstrated that the pore water pressure within the fill slope was significantly increased due to the increase of the infiltration during the wet season of 2013.One main Regional Climate Models (RCM) was analyzed in order to predict future climate variation under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).In the projected period of 76 years ahead from 2014, shows that the amount of precipitation is considerably getting higher in the future in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical pore water pressure conditions during 2014-2090 were used in order to recommend appropriate remediation methods. Results of slope stability analyses indicated that the factor of safety of the fill slopes was reduced from 1.226 to 0.793 during the dry season to wet season in 2013.Results of future slope stability which were obtained using SLOPE/W model for the RCP emissions scenarios depict that, the use of tieback anchors and geogrids in slope protection could be effective in increasing the stability of slopes to an acceptable level during the wet seasons. Moreover, methods and procedures like monitoring of slopes showing signs or susceptible for movement and installing surface protections could be used to increase the stability of slopes.Keywords: climate change, precipitation, SEEP/W, SLOPE/W, unsaturated soil
Procedia PDF Downloads 1341513 Modelling Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility with Markov-Switching Regression, Single Regime GARCH and Markov-Switching GARCH Models: Empirical Evidence from South Africa
Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw
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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility
Procedia PDF Downloads 2001512 Reactive Sputter Deposition of Titanium Nitride on Silicon Using a Magnetized Sheet Plasma Source
Authors: Janella Salamania, Marcedon Fernandez, Matthew Villanueva Henry Ramos
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Titanium nitrite (TiN) a popular functional and decorative coating because of its golden yellow color, high hardness and superior wear resistance. It is also being studied as a diffusion barrier in integrated circuits due to its known chemical stability and low resistivity. While there have been numerous deposition methods done for TiN, most required the heating of substrates at high temperatures. In this work, TiN films are deposited on silicon (111) and (100) substrates without substrate heating using a patented magnetized sheet plasma source. Films were successfully deposited without substrate heating at various target bias, while maintaining a constant 25% N2 to Ar ratio, and deposition of time of 30 minutes. The resulting films exhibited a golden yellow color which is characteristic of TiN. X-ray diffraction patterns show the formation of TiN predominantly oriented in the (111) direction regardless of substrate used. EDX data also confirms the 1:1 stoichiometry of titanium an nitrogen. Ellipsometry measurements estimate the thickness to range from 28 nm to 33 nm. SEM images were also taken to observe the morphology of the film.Keywords: coatings, nitrides, coatings, reactive magnetron sputtering, thin films
Procedia PDF Downloads 3401511 ORR Activity and Stability of Pt-Based Electrocatalysts in PEM Fuel Cell
Authors: S. Limpattayanate, M. Hunsom
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A comparison of activity and stability of the as-formed Pt/C, Pt-Co, and Pt-Pd/C electrocatalysts, prepared by a combined approach of impregnation and seeding, was performed. According to the activity test in a single proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) activity of the Pt-M/C electro catalyst was slightly lower than that of Pt/C. The j0.9 V and E10 mA/cm2 of the as-prepared electrocatalysts increased in the order of Pt/C>Pt-Co/C>Pt-Pd/C. However, in the medium-to-high current density region, Pt-Pd/C exhibited the best performance. With regard to their stability in a 0.5 M H2SO4 electrolyte solution, the electro chemical surface area decreased as the number of rounds of repetitive potential cycling increased due to the dissolution of the metals within the catalyst structure. For long-term measurement, Pt-Pd/C was the most stable than the other three electrocatalysts.Keywords: ORR activity, stability, Pt-based electrocatalysts, PEM fuel cell
Procedia PDF Downloads 4431510 Study of Electrical Properties of An-Fl Based Organic Semiconducting Thin Film
Authors: A.G. S. Aldajani, N. Smida, M. G. Althobaiti, B. Zaidi
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In order to exploit the good electrical properties of anthracene and the excellent properties of fluorescein, new hybrid material has been synthesized (An-Fl). Current-voltage measurements were done on a new single-layer ITO/An-FL/Al device of typically 100 nm thickness. Atypical diode behavior is observed with a turn-on voltage of 4.4 V, a dynamic resistance of 74.07 KΩ and a rectification ratio of 2.02 due to unbalanced transport. Results show also that the current-voltage characteristics present three different regimes of the power-law (J~Vᵐ) for which the conduction mechanism is well described with space-charge-limited current conduction mechanism (SCLC) with a charge carrier mobility of 2.38.10⁻⁵cm2V⁻¹S⁻¹. Moreover, the electrical transport properties of this device have been carried out using a dependent frequency study in the range (50 Hz–1.4 MHz) for different applied biases (from 0 to 6 V). At lower frequency, the σdc values increase with bias voltage rising, supporting that the mobile ion can hop successfully to its nearest vacant site. From σac and impedance measurements, the equivalent electrical circuit is evidenced, where the conductivity process is coherent with an exponential trap distribution caused by structural defects and/or chemical impurities.Keywords: semiconducting polymer, conductivity, SCLC, impedance spectroscopy
Procedia PDF Downloads 1771509 Observations of Conformity in the Health Professions
Authors: Tanya Beran, Michelle Drefs, Ghazwan Altabbaa, Nouf Al Harbi, Noof Al Baz, Elizabeth Oddone Paolucci
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Although research shows that interprofessional practice has desirable effects on patient care, its implementation can present challenges to its team members. In particular, they may feel pressured to agree with or conform to other members who share information that is contrary to their own understanding. Obtaining evidence of this phenomenon is challenging, as team members may underreport their conformity behaviors due to reasons such as social desirability. In this paper, a series of studies are reviewed in which several approaches to assessing conformity in the health care professions are tested. Simulations, questionnaires, and behavior checklists were developed to measure conformity behaviors. Insights from these studies show that a significant proportion of people conform either in the presence or absence of others, express a variety of verbal and nonverbal behaviors when considering whether to conform to others, may shift between conforming and moments later not conforming (and vice versa), and may not accurately report whether they conformed. A new method of measuring conformity using the implicit bias test is also discussed. People at all levels in the healthcare system are encouraged to develop both formal and informal.Keywords: conformity, decision-making, inter-professional teams, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1671508 Market Index Trend Prediction using Deep Learning and Risk Analysis
Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi
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Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks
Procedia PDF Downloads 1531507 Classical Improvisation Facilitating Enhanced Performer-Audience Engagement and a Mutually Developing Impulse Exchange with Concert Audiences
Authors: Pauliina Haustein
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Improvisation was part of Western classical concert culture and performers’ skill sets until early 20th century. Historical accounts, as well as recent studies, indicate that improvisatory elements in the programme may contribute specifically towards the audiences’ experience of enhanced emotional engagement during the concert. This paper presents findings from the author’s artistic practice research, which explored re-introducing improvisation to Western classical performance practice as a musician (cellist and ensemble partner/leader). In an investigation of four concert cycles, the performer-researcher sought to gain solo and chamber music improvisation techniques (both related to and independent of repertoire), conduct ensemble improvisation rehearsals, design concerts with an improvisatory approach, and reflect on interactions with audiences after each concert. Data was collected through use of reflective diary, video recordings, measurement of sound parameters, questionnaires, a focus group, and interviews. The performer’s empirical experiences and findings from audience research components were juxtaposed and interrogated to better understand the (1) rehearsal and planning processes that enable improvisatory elements to return to Western classical concert experience and (2) the emotional experience and type of engagement that occur throughout the concert experience for both performer and audience members. This informed the development of a concert model, in which a programme of solo and chamber music repertoire and improvisations were combined according to historically evidenced performance practice (including free formal solo and ensemble improvisations based on audience suggestions). Inspired by historical concert culture, where elements of risk-taking, spontaneity, and audience involvement (such as proposing themes for fantasies) were customary, this concert model invited musicians to contribute to the process personally and creatively at all stages, from programme planning, and throughout the live concert. The type of democratic, personal, creative, and empathetic collaboration that emerged, as a result, appears unique in Western classical contexts, rather finding resonance in jazz ensemble, drama, or interdisciplinary settings. The research identified features of ensemble improvisation, such as empathy, emergence, mutual engagement, and collaborative creativity, that became mirrored in audience’s responses, generating higher levels of emotional engagement, empathy, inclusivity, and a participatory, co-creative experience. It appears that duringimprovisatory moments in the concert programme, audience members started feeling more like active participants in za\\a creative, collaborative exchange and became stakeholders in a deeper phenomenon of meaning-making and narrativization. Examining interactions between all involved during the concert revealed that performer-audience impulse exchange occurred on multiple levels of awareness and seemed to build upon each other, resulting in particularly strong experiences of both performer and audience’s engagement. This impact appeared especially meaningful for audience members who were seldom concertgoers and reported little familiarity with classical music. The study found that re-introducing improvisatory elements to Western classical concert programmes has strong potential in increasing audience’s emotional engagement with the musical performance, enabling audience members to connect more personally with the individual performers, and in reaching new-to-classical-music audiences.Keywords: artistic research, audience engagement, audience experience, classical improvisation, ensemble improvisation, emotional engagement, improvisation, improvisatory approach, musical performance, practice research
Procedia PDF Downloads 1261506 A Comparison of Direct Water Injection with Membrane Humidifier for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells Humification
Authors: Flavien Marteau, Pedro Affonso Nóbrega, Pascal Biwole, Nicolas Autrusson, Iona De Bievre, Christian Beauger
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Effective water management is essential for the optimal performance of fuel cells. For this reason, many vehicle systems use a membrane humidifier, a passive device that humidifies the air before the cathode inlet. Although they offer good performance, humidifiers are voluminous, costly, and fragile, hence the desire to find an alternative. Direct water injection could be an option, although this method lacks maturity. It consists of injecting liquid water as a spray in the dry heated air coming out from the compressor. This work focuses on the evaluation of direct water injection and its performance compared to the membrane humidifier selected as a reference. Two architectures were experimentally tested to humidify an industrial 2 kW short stack made up of 20 cells of 150 cm² each. For the reference architecture, the inlet air is humidified with a commercial membrane humidifier. For the direct water injection architecture, a pneumatic nozzle was selected to generate a fine spray in the air flow with a Sauter mean diameter of about 20 μm. Initial performance was compared over the entire range of current based on polarisation curves. Then, the influence of various parameters impacting water management was studied, such as the temperature, the gas stoichiometry, and the water injection flow rate. The experimental results obtained confirm the possibility of humidifying the fuel cell using direct water injection. This study, however shows the limits of this humidification method, the mean cell voltage being significantly lower in some operating conditions with direct water injection than with the membrane humidifier. The voltage drop reaches 30 mV per cell (4 %) at 1 A/cm² (1,8 bara, 80 °C) and increases in more demanding humidification conditions. It is noteworthy that the heat of compression available is not enough to evaporate all the injected liquid water in the case of DWI, resulting in a mix of liquid and vapour water entering the fuel cell, whereas only vapour is present with the humidifier. Variation of the injection flow rate shows that part of the injected water is useless for humidification and seems to cross channels without reaching the membrane. The stack was successfully humidified thanks to direct water injection. Nevertheless, our work shows that its implementation requires substantial adaptations and may reduce the fuel cell stack performance when compared to conventional membrane humidifiers, but opportunities for optimisation have been identified.Keywords: cathode humidification, direct water injection, membrane humidifier, proton exchange membrane fuel cell
Procedia PDF Downloads 431505 Estimating the Probability of Winning the Best Actor/Actress Award Conditional on the Best Picture Nomination with Bayesian Hierarchical Models
Authors: Svetlana K. Eden
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Movies and TV shows have long become part of modern culture. We all have our preferred genre, story, actors, and actresses. However, can we objectively discern good acting from the bad? As laymen, we are probably not objective, but what about the Oscar academy members? Are their votes based on objective measures? Oscar academy members are probably also biased due to many factors, including their professional affiliations or advertisement exposure. Heavily advertised films bring more publicity to their cast and are likely to have bigger budgets. Because a bigger budget may also help earn a Best Picture (BP) nomination, we hypothesize that best actor/actress (BA) nominees from BP-nominated movies would have higher chances of winning the award than those BA nominees from non-BP-nominated films. To test this hypothesis, three Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed, and their performance is evaluated. The results from all three models largely support our hypothesis. Depending on the proportion of BP nominations among BA nominees, the odds ratios (estimated over expected) of winning the BA award conditional on BP nomination vary from 2.8 [0.8-7.0] to 4.3 [2.0, 15.8] for actors and from 1.5 [0.0, 12.2] to 5.4 [2.7, 14.2] for actresses.Keywords: Oscar, best picture, best actor/actress, bias
Procedia PDF Downloads 2211504 Outlier Detection in Stock Market Data using Tukey Method and Wavelet Transform
Authors: Sadam Alwadi
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Outlier values become a problem that frequently occurs in the data observation or recording process. Thus, the need for data imputation has become an essential matter. In this work, it will make use of the methods described in the prior work to detect the outlier values based on a collection of stock market data. In order to implement the detection and find some solutions that maybe helpful for investors, real closed price data were obtained from the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE). Tukey and Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) methods will be used to impute the detect the outlier values.Keywords: outlier values, imputation, stock market data, detecting, estimation
Procedia PDF Downloads 801503 Application of Neural Network on the Loading of Copper onto Clinoptilolite
Authors: John Kabuba
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The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ion-exchange.Keywords: clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, neural network
Procedia PDF Downloads 414