Search results for: PCG curve length

Authors: Savaş Karpuz, Sami Küçükşen

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The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of neurological rehabilitation in patients with traumatic brain injury. Participants were 45 consecutive adults with traumatic brain injury who were received the neurologic rehabilitation. Sociodemographic characteristics of the patients, the cause of the injury, the duration of the coma and posttraumatic amnesia, the length of stay in the other inpatient clinics before rehabilitation, the time between injury and admission to the rehabilitation clinic, and the length of stay in the rehabilitation clinic were recorded. The differences in functional status between admission and discharge were determined with Disability Rating Scale (DRS), Functional Independence Measure (FIM), and Functional Ambulation Scale (FAS) and levels of cognitive functioning determined with Ranchos Los Amigos Scale (RLAS). According to admission time, there was a significant improvement identified in functional status of patients who had been given the intensive in-hospital cognitive rehabilitation program. At discharge time, the statistically significant differences were obtained in DRS, FIM, FAS and RLAS scores according to admission time. Better improvement in functional status was detected in patients with lower scores in DRS, and higher scores FIM and RLAS scores at the entry time. The neurologic rehabilitation significantly affects the recovery of functional status after traumatic brain injury.

Keywords: traumatic brain injury, rehabilitation, functional status, neurological

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Authors: Madan Chandra Maurya, A. R. Dar

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Among the entire natural calamities earthquake is the one which is most devastating. If the losses due to all other calamities are added still it will be very less than the losses due to earthquakes. So it means we must be ready to face such a situation, which is only possible if we make our structures earthquake resistant. A review of structural damages to the braced frame systems after several major earthquakes—including recent earthquakes—has identified some anticipated and unanticipated damage. This damage has prompted many engineers and researchers around the world to consider new approaches to improve the behavior of braced frame systems. Extensive experimental studies over the last fourty years of conventional buckling brace components and several braced frame specimens have been briefly reviewed, highlighting that the number of studies on the full-scale concentric braced frames is still limited. So for this reason the study surrounds the words plastic behavior, steel structure, brace frame system. In this study, there are two different analytical approaches which have been used to predict the behavior and strength of an un-braced frame. The first is referred as incremental elasto-plastic analysis a plastic approach. This method gives a complete load-deflection history of the structure until collapse. It is based on the plastic hinge concept for fully plastic cross sections in a structure under increasing proportional loading. In this, the incremental elasto-plastic analysis- hinge by hinge method is used in this study because of its simplicity to know the complete load- deformation history of two storey un-braced scaled model. After that the experiments were conducted on two storey scaled building model with and without bracing system to know the true or experimental load deformation curve of scaled model. Only way, is to understand and analyze these techniques and adopt these techniques in our structures. The study named as Plastic Behavior of Steel Frames using Different Concentric Bracing Configurations deals with all this. This study aimed at improving the already practiced traditional systems and to check the behavior and its usefulness with respect to X-braced system as reference model i.e. is how plastically it is different from X-braced. Laboratory tests involved determination of plastic behavior of these models (with and without brace) in terms of load-deformation curve. Thus, the aim of this study is to improve the lateral displacement resistance capacity by using new configuration of brace member in concentric manner which is different from conventional concentric brace. Once the experimental and manual results (using plastic approach) compared, simultaneously the results from both approach were also compared with nonlinear static analysis (pushover analysis) approach using ETABS i.e how both the previous results closely depicts the behavior in pushover curve and upto what limit. Tests results shows that all the three approaches behaves somewhat in similar manner upto yield point and also the applicability of elasto-plastic analysis (hinge by hinge method) to know the plastic behavior. Finally the outcome from three approaches shows that the newer one configuration which is chosen for study behaves in-between the plane frame (without brace or reference frame) and the conventional X-brace frame.

Keywords: elasto-plastic analysis, concentric steel braced frame, pushover analysis, ETABS

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

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Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: B. U. Ibrahim, A. Okafor

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Sixty-two (62) samples of Clarias anguillaris were collected from Tagwai Reservoir and used for the study. 29 male and 33 female samples were obtained for the study. Body measurement indicated that different sizes were collected for the study. Males, females and combined sexes had standard length and total length means of 26.56±4.99 and 31.13±6.43, 27.17±5.21 and 30.62±5.43, 26.88±5.08 and 30.86±5.88 cm, respectively. The weights of males, females and combined sexes have mean weights of 241.10±96.27, 225.75±78.66 and 232.93±86.95 gm, respectively. Eight items; fish, insects, plant materials, sand grains, crustaceans, algae, detritus and unidentified items were eaten as food by Clarias anguilarias in Tagwai Reservoir. Frequency of occurrence and numerical methods used in stomach contents analysis indicated that fish was the highest, followed by insect, while the lowest was the algae. Frequency of stomach fullness of Clarias anguillaris showed low percentage of empty stomachs or stomachs without food (21.00%) and high percentage of stomachs with food (79.00%), which showed high abundance of food and high feeding intensity during the period of study. Classification of fish based on feeding habits showed that Clarias anguillaris in this study is an omnivore because it consumed both plant and animal materials.

Keywords: stomach content, feeding habit, Clarias anguillaris, Tagwai Reservoir

Procedia PDF Downloads 591

Authors: Luis A. Lizama-Perez, Manuel J. Linares, Mauricio Lopez

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We introduce a method to perform remote user authentication on what we call non-invertible cryptography. It exploits the fact that the multiplication of an invertible integer and a non-invertible integer in a ring Zn produces a non-invertible integer making infeasible to compute factorization. The protocol requires the smallest key size when is compared with the main public key algorithms as Diffie-Hellman, Rivest-Shamir-Adleman or Elliptic Curve Cryptography. Since we found that the unique opportunity for the eavesdropper is to mount an exhaustive search on the keys, the protocol seems to be post-quantum.

Keywords: invertible, non-invertible, ring, key transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Balwinder Singh, Veerpaul Kaur Mann

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A composite material is formed by the combination of two or more phases or materials. Natural minerals-derived Basalt fiber is a kind of fiber being introduced in the polymer composite industry due to its good mechanical properties similar to synthetic fibers and low cost, environment friendly. Also, there is a rising trend towards the use of industrial wastes as fillers in polymer composites with the aim of improving the properties of the composites. The mechanical properties of the fiber-reinforced polymer composites are influenced by various factors like fiber length, fiber weight %, filler weight %, filler size, etc. Thus, a detailed study has been done on the characterization of short-chopped Basalt fiber-reinforced polymer matrix composites using fly ash as filler. Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array has been used to develop the composites by considering fiber length (6, 9 and 12 mm), fiber weight % (25, 30 and 35 %) and filler weight % (0, 5 and 10%) as input parameters with their respective levels and a thorough analysis on the mechanical characteristics (tensile strength and impact strength) has been done using ANOVA analysis with the help of MINITAB14 software. The investigation revealed that fiber weight is the most significant parameter affecting tensile strength, followed by fiber length and fiber weight %, respectively, while impact characterization showed that fiber length is the most significant factor, followed by fly ash weight, respectively. Introduction of fly ash proved to be beneficial in both the characterization with enhanced values upto 5% fly ash weight. The present study on the natural fibres reinforced epoxy composites using fly ash as filler material to study the effect of input parameters on the tensile strength in order to maximize tensile strength of the composites. Fabrication of composites based on Taguchi L9 orthogonal array design of experiments by using three factors fibre type, fibre weight % and fly ash % with three levels of each factor. The Optimization of composition of natural fibre reinforces composites using ANOVA for obtaining maximum tensile strength on fabricated composites revealed that the natural fibres along with fly ash can be successfully used with epoxy resin to prepare polymer matrix composites with good mechanical properties. Paddy- Paddy fibre gives high elasticity to the fibre composite due to presence of approximately hexagonal structure of cellulose present in paddy fibre. Coir- Coir fibre gives less tensile strength than paddy fibre as Coir fibre is brittle in nature when it pulls breakage occurs showing less tensile strength. Banana- Banana fibre has the least tensile strength in comparison to the paddy & coir fibre due to less cellulose content. Higher fibre weight leads to reduction in tensile strength due to increased nuclei of air pockets. Increasing fly ash content reduces tensile strength due to nonbonding of fly ash particles with natural fibre. Fly ash is also not very strong as compared to the epoxy resin leading to reduction in tensile strength.

Keywords: tensile strength and epoxy resin. basalt Fiber, taguchi, polymer matrix, natural fiber

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Authors: Supriya Gupta, Paresh Chokshi

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Polymer-particle interactions can be effectively utilized to produce composites that possess physicochemical properties superior to that of neat polymer. The incorporation of fillers with dimensions comparable to polymer chain size produces composites with extra-ordinary properties owing to very high surface to volume ratio. The dispersion of nanoparticles is achieved by inducing steric repulsion realized by grafting particles with polymeric chains. A comprehensive understanding of the interparticle interaction between these functionalized nanoparticles plays an important role in the synthesis of a stable polymer nanocomposite. With the focus on incorporation of clay sheets in a polymer matrix, we theoretically construct the polymer mediated interparticle potential for two nanosheets grafted with polymeric chains. The self-consistent field theory (SCFT) is employed to obtain the inhomogeneous composition field under equilibrium. Unlike the continuum models, SCFT is built from the microscopic description taking in to account the molecular interactions contributed by both intra- and inter-chain potentials. We present the results of SCFT calculations of the interaction potential curve for two grafted nanosheets immersed in the matrix of polymeric chains of dissimilar chemistry to that of the grafted chains. The interaction potential is repulsive at short separation and shows depletion attraction for moderate separations induced by high grafting density. It is found that the strength of attraction well can be tuned by altering the compatibility between the grafted and the mobile chains. Further, we construct the interaction potential between two nanosheets grafted with diblock copolymers with one of the blocks being chemically identical to the free polymeric chains. The interplay between the enthalpic interaction between the dissimilar species and the entropy of the free chains gives rise to a rich behavior in interaction potential curve obtained for two separate cases of free chains being chemically similar to either the grafted block or the free block of the grafted diblock chains.

Keywords: clay nanosheets, polymer brush, polymer nanocomposites, self-consistent field theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Anvesh Gaddam, Amit Agrawal, Suhas Joshi, Mark Thompson

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An increase in surface area to volume ratio with a decrease in characteristic length scale, leads to a rapid increase in pressure drop across the microchannel. Texturing the microchannel surfaces reduce the effective surface area, thereby decreasing the pressured drop. Surface texturing introduces two wetting states: a metastable Cassie-Baxter state and stable Wenzel state. Predicting wetting transition in textured microchannels is essential for identifying optimal parameters leading to maximum drag reduction. Optical methods allow visualization only in confined areas, therefore, obtaining whole-field information on wetting transition is challenging. In this work, we propose a non-invasive method to capture wetting transitions in textured microchannels under flow conditions. To this end, we tracked the behavior of the Poiseuille number Po = f.Re, (with f the friction factor and Re the Reynolds number), for a range of flow rates (5 < Re < 50), and different wetting states were qualitatively demarcated by observing the inflection points in the f.Re curve. Microchannels with both longitudinal and transverse ribs with a fixed gas fraction (δ, a ratio of shear-free area to total area) and at a different confinement ratios (ε, a ratio of rib height to channel height) were fabricated. The measured pressure drop values for all the flow rates across the textured microchannels were converted into Poiseuille number. Transient behavior of the pressure drop across the textured microchannels revealed the collapse of liquid-gas interface into the gas cavities. Three wetting states were observed at ε = 0.65 for both longitudinal and transverse ribs, whereas, an early transition occurred at Re ~ 35 for longitudinal ribs at ε = 0.5, due to spontaneous flooding of the gas cavities as the liquid-gas interface ruptured at the inlet. In addition, the pressure drop in the Wenzel state was found to be less than the Cassie-Baxter state. Three-dimensional numerical simulations confirmed the initiation of the completely wetted Wenzel state in the textured microchannels. Furthermore, laser confocal microscopy was employed to identify the location of the liquid-gas interface in the Cassie-Baxter state. In conclusion, the present method can overcome the limitations posed by existing techniques, to conveniently capture wetting transition in textured microchannels.

Keywords: drag reduction, Poiseuille number, textured surfaces, wetting transition

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Authors: M. Pawlaczyk-Łuszczyńska, T. Wszołek, A. Dudarewicz, P. Małecki, M. Kłaczyński, A. Bortkiewicz

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Human tolerance to infrasound is defined by the hearing threshold. Infrasound that cannot be heard (or felt) is not annoying and is not thought to have any other adverse or health effects. Recent research has largely confirmed earlier findings. ISO 7196:1995 recommends the use of G-weighted characteristics for the assessment of infrasound. There is a strong correlation between G-weighted SPL and annoyance perception. The aim of this study was to propose exposure limits for infrasound from wind turbines. However, only a few countries have set limits for infrasound. These limits are usually no higher than 85-92 dBG, and none of them are specific to wind turbines. Over the years, a number of studies have been carried out to determine hearing thresholds below 20 Hz. It has been recognized that 10% of young people would be able to perceive 10 Hz at around 90 dB, and it has also been found that the difference in median hearing thresholds between young adults aged around 20 years and older adults aged over 60 years is around 10 dB, irrespective of frequency. This shows that older people (up to about 60 years of age) retain good hearing in the low frequency range, while their sensitivity to higher frequencies is often significantly reduced. In terms of exposure limits for infrasound, the average hearing threshold corresponds to a tone with a G-weighted SPL of about 96 dBG. In contrast, infrasound at Lp,G levels below 85-90 dBG is usually inaudible. The individual hearing threshold can, therefore be 10-15 dB lower than the average threshold, so the recommended limits for environmental infrasound could be 75 dBG or 80 dBG. It is worth noting that the G86 curve has been taken as the threshold of auditory perception of infrasound reached by 90-95% of the population, so the G75 and G80 curves can be taken as the criterion curve for wind turbine infrasound. Finally, two assessment methods and corresponding exposure limit values have been proposed for wind turbine infrasound, i.e. method I - based on G-weighted sound pressure level measurements and method II - based on frequency analysis in 1/3-octave bands in the frequency range 4-20 Hz. Separate limit values have been set for outdoor living areas in the open countryside (Area A) and for noise sensitive areas (Area B). In the case of Method I, infrasound limit values of 80 dBG (for areas A) and 75 dBG (for areas B) have been proposed, while in the case of Method II - criterion curves G80 and G75 have been chosen (for areas A and B, respectively).

Keywords: infrasound, exposure limit, hearing thresholds, wind turbines

Procedia PDF Downloads 74

Authors: Mingwei Yi, Liujie Guo, Zongjun Pan, Xiang Lin, Xiaoming Yi

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With the rapid expansion of road construction mileage in China, the scale of road maintenance needs has concurrently escalated. As the service life of roads extends, the design of pavement repair and maintenance emerges as a crucial component in preserving the excellent performance of the pavement. The remaining service life of asphalt pavement structure is a vital parameter in the lifecycle maintenance design of asphalt pavements. Based on an analysis of pavement structural integrity, this study introduces a characterization and assessment of the remaining life of existing asphalt pavement structures. It proposes indicators such as the transverse crack spacing and the length of longitudinal cracks. The transverse crack spacing decreases with an increase in maintenance intervals and with the extended use of semi-rigid base layer structures, although this trend becomes less pronounced after maintenance intervals exceed 4 years. The length of longitudinal cracks increases with longer maintenance intervals, but this trend weakens after five years. This system can support the enhancement of standardization and scientific design in highway maintenance decision-making processes.

Keywords: structural integrity, highways, pavement evaluation, asphalt concrete pavement

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Authors: Abhigna Bhatt, Arnab Banerjee

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A periodic system with only a single coupling degree of freedom is called a monocoupled system. Monocoupled systems with mechanisms like mass in the mass system generates effective negative mass, mass connected with rigid links generates inertial amplification, and spring-mass connected with a rigid link generateseffective negative stiffness. In this paper, the representative unit cell is introduced, considering all three mechanisms combined. Further, the dynamic stiffness matrix of the unit cell is constructed, and the dispersion relation is obtained by applying the Bloch theorem. The frequency response function is also calculated for the finite length of periodic unit cells. Moreover, the input displacement signal is given to the finite length of periodic structure and using inverse Fourier transform to visualize the wave propagation in the time domain. This visualization explains the sudden attenuation in metamaterial due to energy dissipation by an embedded resonator at the resonance frequency. The visualization created for wave propagation is found necessary to understand the insights of physics behind the attenuation characteristics of the system.

Keywords: mono coupled system, negative effective mass, negative effective stiffness, inertial amplifier, fourier transform

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: A. Alzahrani, G. Arnold, W. Wang

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Background: Stroke commonly occurs in middle-aged and elderly populations, and the diagnosis of early stroke is still difficult. Patients who have suffered a stroke have different balance and gait patterns from healthy people. Advanced techniques of motion analysis have been routinely used in the clinical assessment of cerebral palsy. However, so far, little research has been done on the direct diagnosis of early stroke patients using motion analysis. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate whether patients with stroke have different balance and gait from healthy people and which biomechanical parameters could be used to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a potential risk to stroke. Methods: Thirteen patients with stroke were recruited as subjects whose gait and balance was analysed. Twenty normal subjects at the matched age participated in this study as a control group. All subjects’ gait and balance were collected using Vicon Nexus® to obtain the gait parameters, kinetic, and kinematic parameters of the hip, knee, and ankle joints in three planes of both limbs. Participants stood on force platforms to perform a single leg balance test. Then, they were asked to walk along a 10 m walkway at their comfortable speed. Participants performed 6 trials of single-leg balance for each side and 10 trials of walking. From the recorded trials, three good ones were analysed using the Vicon Plug-in-Gait model to obtain gait parameters, e.g., walking speed, cadence, stride length, and joint parameters, e.g., joint angle, force, moments, etc. Result: The temporal-spatial variables of Stroke subjects were compared with the healthy subjects; it was found that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the groups. The step length, speed, cadence were lower in stroke subjects as compared to the healthy groups. The stroke patients group showed significantly decreased in gait speed (mean and SD: 0.85 ± 0.33 m/s), cadence ( 96.71 ± 16.14 step/min), and step length (0.509 ± 017 m) in compared to healthy people group whereas the gait speed was 1.2 ± 0.11 m/s, cadence 112 ± 8.33 step/min, and step length 0.648 ± 0.43 m. Moreover, it was observed that patients with stroke have significant differences in the ankle, hip, and knee joints’ kinematics in the sagittal and coronal planes. Also, the result showed that there was a significant difference between groups in the single-leg balance test, e.g., maintaining single-leg stance time in the stroke patients showed shorter duration (5.97 ± 6.36 s) in compared to healthy people group (14.36 ± 10.20 s). Conclusion: Our result showed that there are significantly differences between stroke patients and healthy subjects in the various aspects of gait analysis and balance test, as a consequences of these findings some of the biomechanical parameters such as joints kinematics, gait parameters, and single-leg stance balance test could be used in clinical practice to predict and diagnose potential patients who are at a high risk of further stroke.

Keywords: gait analysis, kinetics, kinematics, single-leg stance, Stroke

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Akhila Vasudev, Himanshu Kaushik, Tadikonda Venkata Bharat

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A large number of mine tailings are produced every year as part of the extraction process of phosphates, gold, copper, and other materials. Mine tailings are high in water content and have very slow dewatering behavior. The efficient design of tailings dam and economical disposal of these slurries requires the knowledge of tailings consolidation behavior. The large-strain consolidation theory closely predicts the self-weight consolidation of these slurries as the theory considers the conservation of mass and momentum conservation and considers the hydraulic conductivity as a function of void ratio. Classical laboratory techniques, such as settling column test, seepage consolidation test, etc., are expensive and time-consuming for the estimation of hydraulic conductivity variation with void ratio. Inverse estimation of the constitutive relationships from the measured settlement versus time curves is explored. In this work, inverse analysis based on metaheuristics techniques will be explored for predicting the hydraulic conductivity parameters for mine tailings from the base excess pore water pressure dissipation curve and the initial conditions of the mine tailings. The proposed inverse model uses particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, which is based on the social behavior of animals searching for food sources. The finite-difference numerical solution of the forward analytical model is integrated with the PSO algorithm to solve the inverse problem. The method is tested on synthetic data of base excess pore pressure dissipation curves generated using the finite difference method. The effectiveness of the method is verified using base excess pore pressure dissipation curve obtained from a settling column experiment and further ensured through comparison with available predicted hydraulic conductivity parameters.

Keywords: base excess pore pressure, hydraulic conductivity, large strain consolidation, mine tailings

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Authors: Muhammad Younis

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A ternary 4-point approximating non-stationary subdivision scheme has been introduced that generates the family of $C^2$ limiting curves. The theory of asymptotic equivalence is being used to analyze the convergence and smoothness of the scheme. The comparison of the proposed scheme has been demonstrated using different examples with the existing 4-point ternary approximating schemes, which shows that the limit curves of the proposed scheme behave more pleasantly and can generate conic sections as well.

Keywords: ternary, non-stationary, approximation subdivision scheme, convergence and smoothness

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Authors: Ishith Seth, Lyndel Hewitt, Takako Yabe, James Wykes, Jonathan Clark, Bruce Ashford

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Background: Vastus lateralis (VL) can be used to reconstruct defects of the head and neck. Whilst the advantages are documented, donor-site morbidity is not well described. This study aimed to assess donor-site morbidity after VL flap harvest. The results will determine future directions for preventative and post-operative care to improve patient health outcomes. Methods: Ten participants (mean age 55 years) were assessed for the presence of donor-site morbidity after VL harvest. Musculoskeletal (pain, muscle strength, muscle length, tactile sensation), quality of life (SF-12), and lower limb function (lower extremity function, gait (function and speed), sit to stand were assessed using validated and standardized procedures. Outcomes were compared to age-matched healthy reference values or the non-operative side. Analyses were conducted using descriptive statistics and non-parametric tests. Results: There was no difference in muscle strength (knee extension), muscle length, ability to sit-to-stand, or gait function (all P > 0.05). Knee flexor muscle strength was significantly less on the operated leg compared to the non-operated leg (P=0.02) and walking speed was slower than age-matched healthy values (P<0.001). Thigh tactile sensation was impaired in 89% of participants. Quality of life was significantly less for the physical health component of the SF-12 (P<0.001). The mental health component of the SF-12 was similar to healthy controls (P=0.26). Conclusion: There was no effect on donor site morbidity with regards to knee extensor strength, pain, walking function, ability to sit-to-stand, and muscle length. VL harvest affected donor-site knee flexion strength, walking speed, tactile sensation, and physical health-related quality of life.

Keywords: vastus lateralis, morbidity, head and neck, surgery, donor-site morbidity

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Authors: Nayla El-Kork, Farah Korjieh, Ahmed Bentiba, Mahmoud Korek

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Ab-initio calculations have been performed to investigate the spectroscopic constants for the diatomic compound BeF. Values of the internuclear distance Re, the harmonic frequency ωe, the rotational constants Be, the electronic transition energy with respect to the ground state Te, the eignvalues Ev, the abscissas of the turning points Rmin, Rmax, the rotational constants Bv and the centrifugal distortion constants Dv have been calculated for the molecule’s ground and excited electronic states. Results are in agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: spectroscopic constant, potential energy curve, diatomic molecule, spectral analysis

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Authors: Salhi Nesrine, Salama M. El-Darier, Halilat M. El-Taher

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The present study aimed to investigate the effect of two type of soil (clay and sandy soils) in the potential allelopathic effects of Artemisia herba-alba, Oudneya africana crude powder on some growth parameters and phytomass of two weeds (Bromus tectorum and Melilotus indica) under laboratory conditions (pot experiment). The experimental findings have reported that the donor species crude powder concentrations were suppressing to shoot length (SL), root length (RL), fresh and dry weight of shoot and root (SFw, RFw, SDw and RDw, respectively and the leaf number (LN)) in both soil types and caused a gradual reduction particularly when they are high. However, the reduction degree was varied and species, concentration dependent. The suppressive effect of all the eight donors on the two weedy species was in the following order Bromus tectorum> Melilotus indica. Generally, the growth parameters of two recipient species were significantly decreased with the increase of each of the donor species crude powder concentration levels. Concerning the type of sol the t-test indicated that the difference was insignificant between clay and sandy soils.

Keywords: allelopathy, soil, Artemisia herba-alba, Oudneya africana, growth, weeds

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Rossy G. Olan Villegas, Gerardo Acosta Garcia, Aurea Bernardino Nicanor, Leopoldo Gonzalez Cruz, Humberto Ramirez Medina

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Capsicum annuum is a crop of agricultural and economic importance in Mexico and other countries. The fruit (pepper) contains bioactive components such as carotenoids, phenolic compounds and capsaicinoids that improve health. However, pepper cultivation is affected by biotic and abiotic factors that decrease yield. Some phytohormones like gibberellins and auxins induce the formation and development of fruit in several plants. In this study, we evaluated the effect of the exogenous application of phytohormones like gibberellic acid and indolbutyric acid on fruit development of jalapeno pepper plants, the protein profile of plant tissues, the accumulation of bioactive compounds and antioxidant activity in the pericarp and seeds. For that, plants were sprinkled with these phytohormones. The fruit collection for the control, indolbutyric acid and gibberellic acid treatments was 7 peppers per plant; however, for the treatment that combines indolbutyric acid and gibberellic acid, a fruit with the shortest length (1.52 ± 1.00 cm) and weight (0.41 ± 1.0 g) was collected compared to fruits of plants grown under other treatments. The length (4,179 ± 0,130 cm) and weight of the fruit (8,949 ± 0.583 g) increased in plants treated with indolbutyric acid, but these characteristics decreased with the application of GA3 (length of 3,349 ± 0.127 cm and a weight 4,429 ± 0.144 g). The content of carotenes and phenolic compounds increased in plants treated with GA3 (1,733 ± 0.092 and 1,449 ± 0.009 mg / g, respectively) or indolbutyric acid (1,164 ± 0.042 and 0.970 ± 0.003 mg / g). However, this effect was not observed in plants treated with both phytohormones (0.238 ± 0.021 and 0.218 ± 0.004 mg / g). Capsaicin content was higher in all treatments; but it was more noticeable in plants treated with both phytohormones, the value being 0.913 ± 0.001 mg / g (three times greater in amount). The antioxidant activity was measured by 3 different assays, 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), antioxidant power of ferric reduction (FRAP) and 2,2'-Azinobis-3-ethyl-benzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid ( ABTS) to find the minimum inhibitory concentration of the reducing radical (IC50 and EC50). Significant differences were observed from the application of the phytohormone, being the fruits treated with gibberellins, which had a greater accumulation of bioactive compounds. Our results suggest that the application of phytohormones modifies the development of fruit and its content of bioactive compounds.

Keywords: auxins, capsaicinoids, carotenoids, gibberellins

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Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

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Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

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Authors: Zahra Zamanian, Alireza Zamanian, Jafar Hasanzadeh

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Background: Unwanted sound, as one of the most important physical factors in the majority of production units, imposes a great number of problems on the industrial workers. Sound is one of the environmental factors which can cause physical as well as psychological damages and also affects the individuals’ performance and productivity. Therefore, the present study aimed to determine the effect of noise exposure on human performance. Methods: The present study assessed the effect of noise on the performance of 50 students of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences (25 males and 25 females) at the sound pressures of 70, 90, and 110 dB by using two factors of physical features and the creation of different conditions of sound pressure source as well as applying Two-Arm coordination Test. Results: The results of the present study revealed no significant difference between male and female subjects as well as different conditions of creating sound pressure regarding the length of performance (p> 0.05). In addition, as the sound pressure increased, the length of performance increased, as well. According to the results, no significant difference was found between the performance at 70 and 90 dB. On the other hand, the performance at 110 dB was significantly different from the performance at 70 and 90 dB (p<0.05 and p<0.001). Conclusion: In general, as the sound pressure increases, the performance decreases which results in a considerable increase in the individuals’ rate of error.

Keywords: physical factors, two-arm coordination test, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, noise

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Authors: M. Amanipour, J. Towfighi, E. Ganji Babakhani, M. Heidari

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Cylindrical alumina microfiltration membrane (GMITM Corporation, inside diameter=9 mm, outside diameter=13 mm, length= 50 mm) with an average pore size of 0.5 micrometer and porosity of about 0.35 was used as the support for membrane reactor. This support was soaked in boehmite sols, and the mean particle size was adjusted in the range of 50 to 500 nm by carefully controlling hydrolysis time, and calcined at 650 °C for two hours. This process was repeated with different boehmite solutions in order to achieve an intermediate layer with an average pore size of about 50 nm. The resulting substrate was then coated with a thin and dense layer of silica by counter current chemical vapour deposition (CVD) method. A boehmite sol with 10 wt.% of nickel which was prepared by a standard procedure was used to make the catalytic layer. BET, SEM, and XRD analysis were used to characterize this layer. The catalytic membrane reactor was placed in an experimental setup to evaluate the permeation and hydrogen separation performance for a steam reforming reaction. The setup consisted of a tubular module in which the membrane was fixed, and the reforming reaction occurred at the inner side of the membrane. Methane stream, diluted with nitrogen, and deionized water with a steam to carbon (S/C) ratio of 3.0 entered the reactor after the reactor was heated up to 500 °C with a specified rate of 2 °C/ min and the catalytic layer was reduced at presence of hydrogen for 2.5 hours. Nitrogen flow was used as sweep gas through the outer side of the reactor. Any liquid produced was trapped and separated at reactor exit by a cold trap, and the produced gases were analyzed by an on-line gas chromatograph (Agilent 7890A) to measure total CH₄ conversion and H₂ permeation. BET analysis indicated uniform size distribution for catalyst with average pore size of 280 nm and average surface area of 275 m².g^-1. Single-component permeation tests were carried out for hydrogen, methane, and carbon dioxide at temperature range of 500-800 °C, and the results showed almost the same permeance and hydrogen selectivity values for hydrogen as the composite membrane without catalytic layer. Performance of the catalytic membrane was evaluated by applying membranes as a membrane reactor for methane steam reforming reaction at gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) of 10,000 h⁻¹ and 2 bar. CH₄ conversion increased from 50% to 85% with increasing reaction temperature from 600 °C to 750 °C, which is sufficiently above equilibrium curve at reaction conditions, but slightly lower than membrane reactor with packed nickel catalytic bed because of its higher surface area compared to the catalytic layer.

Keywords: catalytic membrane, hydrogen, methane steam reforming, permeance

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Authors: Peter J. Fusco, Dave M. Mathew, Chris Mathew, Kenneth H. Levy, Kathryn S. Varghese, Stephanie Salazar-Restrepo, Serena M. Mathew, Sofia Khaja, Eamon Vega, Mia Polizzi, Alyssa Mullane, Adham Ahmed

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Background: Laparoscopic (LS) removal of neuroblastomas in children has been reported to offer favorable outcomes compared to the conventional open thoracotomy (OT) procedure. Critical perioperative measures such as blood loss, operative time, length of stay, and time to postoperative chemotherapy have all supported laparoscopic use rather than its more invasive counterpart. Herein, a pairwise meta-analysis was performed comparing perioperative outcomes between LS and OT in thoracoabdominal neuroblastoma cases. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was performed on PubMed, Ovid EMBASE, and Scopus databases to identify studies comparing the outcomes of pediatric patients with thoracoabdominal neuroblastomas undergoing resection via OT or LS. After deduplication, 4,227 studies were identified and subjected to initial title screening with exclusion and inclusion criteria to ensure relevance. When studies contained overlapping cohorts, only the larger series were included. Primary outcomes include estimated blood loss (EBL), hospital length of stay (LOS), and mortality, while secondary outcomes were tumor recurrence, post-operative complications, and operation length. The “meta” and “metafor” packages were used in R, version 4.0.2, to pool risk ratios (RR) or standardized mean differences (SMD) in addition to their 95% confidence intervals in the random effects model via the Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed using the I² test, while publication bias was assessed via funnel plot. Results: The pooled analysis included 209 patients from 5 studies (141 OT, 68 LS). Of the included studies, 2 originated from the United States, 1 from Toronto, 1 from China, and 1was from a Japanese center. Mean age between study cohorts ranged from 2.4 to 5.3 years old, with female patients occupying between 30.8% to 50% of the study populations. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups for LOS (SMD -1.02; p=0.083), mortality (RR 0.30; p=0.251), recurrence(RR 0.31; p=0.162), post-operative complications (RR 0.73; p=0.732), or operation length (SMD -0.07; p=0.648). Of note, LS appeared to be protective in the analysis for EBL, although it did not reach statistical significance (SMD -0.4174; p= 0.051). Conclusion: Despite promising literature assessing LS removal of pediatric neuroblastomas, results showed it was non-superior to OT for any explored perioperative outcomes. Given the limited comparative data on the subject, it is evident that randomized trials are necessary to further the efficacy of the conclusions reached.

Keywords: laparoscopy, neuroblastoma, thoracoabdominal, thoracotomy

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Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

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Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

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Authors: Frederick Ferguson, Dehua Feng, Yang Gao

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No doubt, current CFD tools have a great many technical limitations, and active research is being done to overcome these limitations. Current areas of limitations include vortex-dominated flows, separated flows, and turbulent flows. In general, turbulent flows are unsteady solutions to the fluid dynamic equations, and instances of these solutions can be computed directly from the equations. One of the approaches commonly implemented is known as the ‘direct numerical simulation’, DNS. This approach requires a spatial grid that is fine enough to capture the smallest length scale of the turbulent fluid motion. This approach is called the ‘Kolmogorov scale’ model. It is of interest to note that the Kolmogorov scale model must be captured throughout the domain of interest and at a correspondingly small-time step. In typical problems of industrial interest, the ratio of the length scale of the domain to the Kolmogorov length scale is so great that the required grid set becomes prohibitively large. As a result, the available computational resources are usually inadequate for DNS related tasks. At this time in its development, DNS is not applicable to industrial problems. In this research, an attempt is made to develop a numerical technique that is capable of delivering DNS quality solutions at the scale required by the industry. To date, this technique has delivered preliminary results for both steady and unsteady, viscous and inviscid, compressible and incompressible, and for both high and low Reynolds number flow fields that are very accurate. Herein, it is proposed that the Integro-Differential Scheme (IDS) be applied to a set of vortex-shockwave interaction problems with the goal of investigating the nonstationary physics within the resulting interaction regions. In the proposed paper, the IDS formulation and its numerical error capability will be described. Further, the IDS will be used to solve the inviscid and viscous Burgers equation, with the goal of analyzing their solutions over a considerable length of time, thus demonstrating the unsteady capabilities of the IDS. Finally, the IDS will be used to solve a set of fluid dynamic problems related to flow that involves highly vortex interactions. Plans are to solve the following problems: the travelling wave and vortex problems over considerable lengths of time, the normal shockwave–vortex interaction problem for low supersonic conditions and the reflected oblique shock–vortex interaction problem. The IDS solutions obtained in each of these solutions will be explored further in efforts to determine the distributed density gradients and vorticity, as well as the Q-criterion. Parametric studies will be conducted to determine the effects of the Mach number on the intensity of vortex-shockwave interactions.

Keywords: vortex dominated flows, shockwave interactions, high Reynolds number, integro-differential scheme

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Authors: Adam L. Yanagihara, Yong Seok Park

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The goal of this paper is to converge upon a design of a brake system that could be used for a roller coaster found at an amusement park. It was necessary to find what could be deemed as a “comfortable” deceleration so that passengers do not feel as if they are suddenly jerked and pressed against the restraining harnesses. A human factors engineering approach was taken in order to determine this deceleration. Using a previous study that tested the deceleration of transit vehicles, it was found that a -0.45 G deceleration would be used as a design requirement to build this system around. An adjustable linear eddy current brake using permanent magnets would be the ideal system to use in order to meet this design requirement. Anthropometric data were then used to determine a realistic weight and length of the roller coaster that the brake was being designed for. The weight and length data were then factored into magnetic brake force equations. These equations were used to determine how the brake system and the brake run layout would be designed. A final design for the brake was determined and it was found that a total of 12 brakes would be needed with a maximum braking distance of 53.6 m in order to stop a roller coaster travelling at its top speed and loaded to maximum capacity. This design is derived from theoretical calculations, but is within the realm of feasibility.

Keywords: eddy current brake, engineering design, design synthesis, human factors engineering

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Authors: Elena Carcano, James Ball, Betty Tiko

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Carrying capacity refers to the maximum population that a given level of resources can sustain over a specific period. In undisturbed environments, the maximum population is determined by the availability and distribution of resources, as well as the competition for their utilization. This information is typically obtained through long-term data collection. In regulated environments, where resources are artificially modified, populations must adapt to changing conditions, which can lead to additional challenges due to fluctuations in resource availability over time and throughout development. An example of this is observed in hydropower plants, which alter water flow and impact fish migration patterns and behaviors. To assess how fish species can adapt to these changes, specialized surveys are conducted, which provide valuable information on fish populations, sample sizes, and density before and after flow modifications. In such situations, it is highly recommended to conduct hydrological and biological monitoring to gain insight into how flow reductions affect species adaptability and to prevent unfavorable exploitation conditions. This analysis involves several planned steps that help design appropriate hydropower production while simultaneously addressing environmental needs. Consequently, the study aims to strike a balance between technical assessment, biological requirements, and societal expectations. Beginning with a small hydro project that requires restoration, this analysis focuses on the lower tail of the Flow Duration Curve (FDC), where both hydrological and environmental goals can be met. The proposed approach involves determining the threshold condition that is tolerable for the most vulnerable species sampled (Telestes Muticellus) by identifying a low flow value from the long-term FDC. The results establish a practical connection between hydrological and environmental information and simplify the process by establishing a single reference flow value that represents the minimum environmental flow that should be maintained.

Keywords: carrying capacity, fish bypass ladder, long-term streamflow duration curve, eta-beta method, environmental flow

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Authors: Ali N. Suri, Ahmad A. Al-Makhlufi

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Sandwich construction is widely accepted as a method of construction especially in the aircraft industry. It is a type of stressed skin construction formed by bonding two thin faces to a thick core, the faces resist all of the applied edge loads and provide all or nearly all of the required rigidities, the core spaces the faces to increase cross section moment of inertia about common neutral axis and transmit shear between them provides a perfect bond between core and faces is made. Material for face sheets can be of metal or reinforced plastics laminates, core material can be metallic cores of thin sheets forming corrugation or honeycomb, or non-metallic core of Balsa wood, plastic foams, or honeycomb made of reinforced plastics. For in plane axial loading web core and web-foam core Sandwich panels can fail by local buckling of plates forming the cross section with buckling wave length of the order of length of spacing between webs. In this study local buckling of web core and web-foam core Sandwich panels is carried out for given materials of facing and core, and given panel overall dimension for different combinations of cross section geometries. The Finite Strip Method is used for the analysis, and Fortran based computer program is developed and used.

Keywords: local buckling, finite strip, sandwich panels, web and foam core

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Authors: J. Omer, H. Haroglu

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Base enlargement in piles was invented to enhance pile resistance in downward loading, but the contribution of an enlarged base to the lateral load resistance of a pile has not been fully exploited or understood. This paper presents a laboratory investigation of the lateral capacity and deformation response of small-scale steel piles with enlarged bases installed in dry sand. Static loading tests were performed on 24 model piles having different base-to-shaft diameter ratios. The piles were installed in a box filled with dry sand, and lateral loads were applied to the pile tops using a pulley system. The test piles had shaft diameters of 20 mm, 16 mm, and 10 mm; base diameters of 900 mm, 700 mm, and 500 mm. As a control, a pile without base enlargement was tested to allow comparisons with the enlarged base piles. Incremental maintained loads were applied until pile failure approached while recording pile head deflections with high-precision dial gauges. The results showed that the lateral capacity increased with an increase in base diameter, albeit by different percentages depending on the shaft diameters and embedment length in the sand. There was always an increase in lateral capacity with increasing embedment length. Also, it was observed that an enlarged pile base had deflected less at a given load when compared to the control pile. Therefore, the research demonstrated the benefits of lateral capacity and stability of enlarging a pile base.

Keywords: pile foundations, enlarged base, lateral loading

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Authors: Eric S. Lee, Connie Bygrave, Jordan Mahar, Naina Garg, Suzanne Cottreau

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Marking exams is universally detested by lecturers. Final exams in many higher education courses often last 3.0 hrs. Do exams really need to be so long? Can we justifiably reduce the number of questions on them? Surprisingly few have researched these questions, arguably because of the complexity and difficulty of using traditional methods. To answer these questions empirically, we used a new approach based on three key elements: Use of an unusual variation of a true experimental design, equivalence hypothesis testing, and an expanded set of six psychometric criteria to be met by any shortened exam if it is to replace a current 3.0-hr exam (reliability, validity, justifiability, number of exam questions, correspondence, and equivalence). We compared student performance on each official 3.0-hr exam with that on five shortened exams having proportionately fewer questions (2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0, and 0.5 hours) in a series of four experiments conducted in two classes in each of two finance courses (224 students in total). We found strong evidence that, in these courses, shortening of final exams to 2.0 hrs was warranted on all six psychometric criteria. Shortening these exams by one hour should result in a substantial one-third reduction in lecturer time and effort spent marking, lower student stress, and more time for students to prepare for other exams. Our approach provides a relatively simple, easy-to-use methodology that lecturers can use to examine the effect of shortening their own exams.

Keywords: exam length, psychometric criteria, synthetic experimental designs, test length

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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