Search results for: Hashin failure criteria

Authors: Sabry Shaaban, Tom McNamara, Sarah Hudson

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This paper investigates the benefits of deliberately unbalancing both operation time means (MTs) and unreliability (failure and repair rates) for non-automated production lines.The lines were simulated with various line lengths, buffer capacities, degrees of imbalance and patterns of MT and unreliability imbalance. Data on two performance measures, namely throughput (TR) and average buffer level (ABL) were gathered, analyzed and compared to a balanced line counterpart. A number of conclusions were made with respect to the ranking of configurations, as well as to the relationships among the independent design parameters and the dependent variables. It was found that the best configurations are a balanced line arrangement and a monotone decreasing MT order, coupled with either a decreasing or a bowl unreliability configuration, with the first generally resulting in a reduced TR and the second leading to a lower ABL than those of a balanced line.

Keywords: unreliable production lines, unequal mean operation times, unbalanced failure and repair rates, throughput, average buffer level

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Authors: Aluisius Pratono, Deddy Marciano, Suyanto Suyanto

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The emerging model of community development social enterprise is one of the social enterprise models. However, a precise view of the community development enterprise is still lacking. Hence, this study was aimed at deepening the concept of the community development social enterprise model at the place management and development context. Multiple case studies in Indonesia context were observed to explore the typical criteria of the community development enterprise model in place-making practices. The research paradigm used interpretative approach, which involves dialectic process between the researchers and research participants. This study highlights some principles in the community-development enterprise, which cover an entrepreneurial dimension, social goals, participatory governance, and co-management. The result makes a contribution to conceptual literature occurs at the criteria of social enterprises by highlighting the typology of community development enterprise.

Keywords: community development enterprise, social purposes, economic project, participatory governance

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Authors: Keshav Raj Dhakal, Jit Bahadur Rokaya Chhetri

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The Micro Hydro (MH) is one of the successful technology in Rural Nepal. Out of 75 district, 59 districts have installed 1287 MH projects with a total capacity of 24 Mega Watt (MW). Now, the challenge is how to sustain them. Dolakha is a prominent district for sustainable endues of power to sustain the MH projects. A total of 37 MH projects have been constructed with producing 886 Kilo Watt (KW) of energy in the district. This study traces out the impact of earthquake in MH sector in Dolakha district. It shows that 59 % of projects have been affected by devastating earthquake in April and May, 2015 where 29 % are completely damaged. Most of the damages are in civil structures like Penstock, forebay, power house, Canal, Intake. Transmission and distribution line have been partially damaged. This paper analysis failure of the civil structural component of MH projects and its financial consequence to the community. This study recommends that a disaster impact assessment is essential before construction of MH projects.

Keywords: micro hydro, earthquake, structural failure, financial consequence

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Authors: Malik Assi

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This research presents a strengthening technique for enhancing the punching shear resistance of concrete flat slabs. Internal square patches of CFRP were centrally installed inside 450*450mm concrete panels during casting at a chosen distance from the tension face to produce six simply supported samples. The dimensions of those patches ranged from 50*50mm to 360*360mm. All the examined slabs contained the same amount of tensile reinforcement, had identical dimensions, were designed according to the American Concrete Institute code (ACI) and tested to failure. Compared to the control unstrengthened spacemen, all the strengthened slabs have shown an enhancement in punching capacity and stiffness. This enhancement has been found to be proportional to the area of the installed CFRP patches. In addition to the reasonably enhanced stiffness and punching shear, this strengthening technique can change the slab failure mode from shear to flexural.

Keywords: CFRP patches, Flat slabs, Flexural, Stiffness, Punching shear

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Authors: Ahmadur Rahman, Showkat Ahmad Lone, Ariful Islam

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In this article, we have estimated the parameters for the failure times of units based on the sampling technique adaptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring under the step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk. The failure times of the units are assumed to follow an exponential distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the distribution and tampered coefficient. Confidence interval also obtained for the parameters. A simulation study is performed by using Monte Carlo Simulation method to check the authenticity of the model and its assumptions.

Keywords: adaptive type-I hybrid progressive censoring, competing risks, exponential distribution, simulation, step-stress partially accelerated life tests

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Authors: Abdel Rahman Khider Hassan

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This paper describes a multi-criteria geospatial model for prediction of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for Lake Naivasha catchment (Kenya), based on spatial analysis of integrated datasets of location intrinsic parameters (slope stability factors) and external landslides triggering factors (natural and man-made factors). The intrinsic dataset included: lithology, geometry of slope (slope inclination, aspect, elevation, and curvature) and land use/land cover. The landslides triggering factors included: rainfall as the climatic factor, in addition to the destructive effects reflected by proximity of roads and drainage network to areas that are susceptible to landslides. No published study on landslides has been obtained for this area. Thus, digital datasets of the above spatial parameters were conveniently acquired, stored, manipulated and analyzed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) using a multi-criteria grid overlay technique (in ArcGIS 10.2.2 environment). Deduction of landslide hazard zonation is done by applying weights based on relative contribution of each parameter to the slope instability, and finally, the weighted parameters grids were overlaid together to generate a map of the potential landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) for the lake catchment. From the total surface of 3200 km² of the lake catchment, most of the region (78.7 %; 2518.4 km²) is susceptible to moderate landslide hazards, whilst about 13% (416 km²) is occurring under high hazards. Only 1.0% (32 km²) of the catchment is displaying very high landslide hazards, and the remaining area (7.3 %; 233.6 km²) displays low probability of landslide hazards. This result confirms the importance of steep slope angles, lithology, vegetation land cover and slope orientation (aspect) as the major determining factors of slope failures. The information provided by the produced map of landslide hazard zonation (LHZ) could lay the basis for decision making as well as mitigation and applications in avoiding potential losses caused by landslides in the Lake Naivasha catchment in the Kenya Highlands.

Keywords: decision making, geospatial, landslide, multi-criteria, Naivasha

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Authors: Ahmad Idris, Bishir Kado, Murtala Umar, Armaya`u Suleiman Labo

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Superpave is the short form of Superior Performing Asphalt Pavement and represents a basis for specifying component materials, asphalt mixture design and analysis, and pavement performance prediction. This new technology is the result of long research projects conducted by the strategic Highway Research program (SHRP) of the Federal Highway Administration. This research was aimed at examining the suitability of Aggregates found in Kano for used in Superpave design method. Aggregates samples were collected from different sources in Kano Nigeria and their Engineering properties, as they relate to the SUPERPAVE design requirements were determined. The average result of Coarse Aggregate Angularity in Kano was found to be 87% and 86% of one fractured face and two or more fractured faces respectively with a standard of 80% and 85% respectively. Fine Aggregate Angularity average result was found to be 47% with a requirement of 45% minimum. A flat and elongated particle which was found to be 10% has a maximum criterion of 10%. Sand equivalent was found to be 51% with the criteria of 45% minimum. Strength tests were also carried out, and the results reflect the requirements of the standards. The tests include Impact value test, Aggregate crushing value, and Aggregate Abrasion tests and the results are 27.5%, 26.7%, and 13%, respectively, with the maximum criteria of 30%. Specific gravity was also carried out and the result was found to have an average value of 2.52 with a criterion of 2.6 to 2.9 and Water absorption was found to be 1.41% with maximum criteria of 0.6%. From the study, the result of the tests indicated that the aggregates properties has met the requirements of Superpave design method based on the specifications of ASTMD 5821, ASTM D 4791, AASHTO T176, AASHTO T33 and BS815.

Keywords: Superpave, aggregates, asphalt mix, Kano

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Authors: C. Scurr, J. Jeans, S. Srivastava

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Introduction: Acute type two respiratory failure (T2RF) has become a common presentation over the last two decades primarily due to an increase in the prevalence of chronic lung disease. Acute exacerbations can be managed either medically or in combination with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) which should be monitored with regular arterial blood gas samples (ABG). Arterial lines allow more frequent arterial blood sampling with less patient discomfort. We present the experience from a teaching hospital emergency department (ED) and level 2 medical high-dependency unit (HDU) that together form the pathway for management of acute type 2 respiratory failure. Methods: Patients acutely presenting to Charing Cross Hospital, London, with T2RF requiring non-invasive ventilation (NIV) over 14 months (2011 to 2012) were identified from clinical coding. Retrospective data collection included: demographics, co-morbidities, blood gas numbers and timing, if arterial lines were used and who performed this. Analysis was undertaken using Microsoft Excel. Results: Coding identified 107 possible patients. 69 notes were available, of which 41 required NIV for type 2 respiratory failure. 53.6% of patients had an arterial line inserted. Patients with arterial lines had 22.4 ABG in total on average compared to 8.2 for those without. These patients had a similar average time to normalizing pH of (23.7 with arterial line vs 25.6 hours without), and no statistically significant difference in mortality. Arterial lines were inserted by Foundation year doctors, Core trainees, Medical registrars as well as the ICU registrar. 63% of these were performed by the medical registrar rather than ICU, ED or a junior doctor. This is reflected in that the average time until an arterial line was inserted was 462 minutes. The average number of ABGs taken before an arterial line was 2 with a range of 0 – 6. The average number of gases taken if no arterial line was ever used was 7.79 (range of 2-34) – on average 4 times as many arterial punctures for each patient. Discussion: Arterial line use was associated with more frequent arterial blood sampling during each inpatient admission. Additionally, patients with an arterial line have less individual arterial punctures in total and this is likely more comfortable for the patient. Arterial lines are normally sited by medical registrars, however this is normally after some delay. ED clinicians could improve patient comfort and monitoring thus allowing faster titration of NIV if arteral lines were regularly inserted in the ED. We recommend that ED doctors insert arterial lines when indicated in order improve the patient experience and facilitate medical management.

Keywords: non invasive ventilation, arterial blood gas, acute type, arterial line

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Authors: M. Zezou

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This paper focuses on the design of a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) about Content Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) and more specifically about how teachers can use CLIL as an educational approach incorporating technology in their teaching as well. All the four weeks of the MOOC will be presented and a step-by-step analysis of each lesson will be offered. Additionally, the paper includes detailed lesson plans about CLIL lessons with proposed CLIL activities and games in which technology plays a central part. The MOOC is structured based on certain criteria, in order to ensure success, as well as a positive experience that the learners need to have after completing this MOOC. It addresses to all language teachers who would like to implement CLIL into their teaching. In other words, it presents the methodology that needs to be followed so as to successfully carry out a CLIL lesson and achieve the learning objectives set at the beginning of the course. Firstly, in this paper, it is very important to give the definitions of MOOCs and LMOOCs, as well as to explore the difference between a structure-based MOOC (xMOOC) and a connectivist MOOC (cMOOC) and present the criteria of a successful MOOC. Moreover, the notion of CLIL will be explored, as it is necessary to fully understand this concept before moving on to the design of the MOOC. Onwards, the four weeks of the MOOC will be introduced as well as lesson plans will be presented: The type of the activities, the aims of each activity and the methodology that teachers have to follow. Emphasis will be placed on the role of technology in foreign language learning and on the ways in which we can involve technology in teaching a foreign language. Final remarks will be made and a summary of the main points will be offered at the end.

Keywords: CLIL, cMOOC, lesson plan, LMOOC, MOOC criteria, MOOC, technology, xMOOC

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Authors: M. Pramila Devi, J. Praveena

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In today’s industrial scenario, the expectations and demand of customers are reaching great heights. In order to satisfy the customer requirements the users are increasingly turning towards fourth party logistics (4PL) service providers to manage their total supply chain operations. In this present research, initially, the criteria for the selection of integrated service providers have been identified and an integrated modal based on their inter-relationship has been developed with help of shippers, with this idea of what factors to be considered and their inter-relationships while selecting integrated service provider. Later, various methods deriving the priority weights viz. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been employed for 4PL service provider selection. The derived priorities of 4PL alternatives using methods have been critically analyzed and compared for effective selection. The use of the modal indicates that the computed quantitative evaluation can be applied to improve the precision of the selection.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, fourth party logistics, priority weight, criteria selection

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Authors: W. S. Hsu, Y. Chiang, Y. S. Tseng, J. R. Wang, C. Shih, S. W. Chen

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Kuosheng nuclear power plant (NPP) is a BWR/6 plant in Taiwan. There is more concern for the safety of NPPs in Taiwan after Japan Fukushima NPP disaster occurred. Hence, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP spent fuel pool (SFP), by using TRACE, MELCOR, and SNAP codes, the safety analysis of Kuosheng NPP SFP was performed. There were two main steps in this research. First, the Kuosheng NPP SFP models were established. Second, the transient analysis of Kuosheng SFP was done by TRACE and MELCOR under the cooling system failure condition (Fukushima-like condition). The results showed that the calculations of MELCOR and TRACE were very similar in this case, and the fuel uncover happened roughly at 4^th day after the failure of cooling system. The above results indicated that Kuosheng NPP SFP may be unsafe in the case of long-term SBO situation. In addition, future calculations were needed to be done by the other codes like FRAPTRAN for the cladding calculations.

Keywords: TRACE, MELCOR, SNAP, spent fuel pool

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Authors: Antonio Boggia, Luisa Paolotti, Gianluca Massei, Lucia Rocchi, Elaine Pace, Maria Attard

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The aim of this paper is to present a methodology and a computer model for sustainability assessment based on the integration of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with a Geographic Information System (GIS). It presents the result of a study for the implementation of a model for measuring sustainability to address the policy actions for the improvement of sustainability at territory level. The aim is to rank areas in order to understand the specific technical and/or financial support that is required to develop sustainable growth. Assessing sustainable development is a multidimensional problem: economic, social and environmental aspects have to be taken into account at the same time. The tool for a multidimensional representation is a proper set of indicators. The set of indicators must be integrated into a model, that is an assessment methodology, to be used for measuring sustainability. The model, developed by the Environmental Laboratory of the University of Perugia, is called GeoUmbriaSUIT. It is a calculation procedure developed as a plugin working in the open-source GIS software QuantumGIS. The multi-criteria method used within GeoUmbriaSUIT is the algorithm TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Design), which defines a ranking based on the distance from the worst point and the closeness to an ideal point, for each of the criteria used. For the sustainability assessment procedure, GeoUmbriaSUIT uses a geographic vector file where the graphic data represent the study area and the single evaluation units within it (the alternatives, e.g. the regions of a country, or the municipalities of a region), while the alphanumeric data (attribute table), describe the environmental, economic and social aspects related to the evaluation units by means of a set of indicators (criteria). The use of the algorithm available in the plugin allows to treat individually the indicators representing the three dimensions of sustainability, and to compute three different indices: environmental index, economic index and social index. The graphic output of the model allows for an integrated assessment of the three dimensions, avoiding aggregation. The presence of separate indices and graphic output make GeoUmbriaSUIT a readable and transparent tool, since it doesn’t produce an aggregate index of sustainability as final result of the calculations, which is often cryptic and difficult to interpret. In addition, it is possible to develop a “back analysis”, able to explain the positions obtained by the alternatives in the ranking, based on the criteria used. The case study presented is an assessment of the level of sustainability in the six regions of Malta, an island state in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea and the southernmost member of the European Union. The results show that the integration of MCDA-GIS is an adequate approach for sustainability assessment. In particular, the implemented model is able to provide easy to understand results. This is a very important condition for a sound decision support tool, since most of the time decision makers are not experts and need understandable output. In addition, the evaluation path is traceable and transparent.

Keywords: GIS, multi-criteria analysis, sustainability assessment, sustainable development

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Authors: N. Attari, S. Amziane, M. Chemrouk

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A large number of old buildings have been identified as having potentially critical detailing to resist earthquakes. The main reinforcement of lap-spliced columns just above the joint region, discontinuous bottom beam reinforcement, and little or no joint transverse reinforcement are the most critical details of interior beam column joints in such buildings. This structural type constitutes a large share of the building stock, both in developed and developing countries, and hence it represents a substantial exposure. Direct observation of damaged structures, following the Algiers 2003 earthquake, has shown that damage occurs usually at the beam-column joints, with failure in bending or shear, depending on geometry and reinforcement distribution and type. While substantial literature exists for the design of concrete frame joints to withstand this type of failure, after the earthquake many structures were classified as slightly damaged and, being uneconomic to replace them, at least in the short term, suitable means of repairs of the beam column joint area are being studied. Furthermore; there exists a large number of buildings that need retrofitting of the joints before the next earthquake. The paper reports the results of the experimental programme, constituted of three beam-column reinforced concrete joints at a scale of one to three (1/3) tested under the effect of a pre-stressing axial load acting over the column. The beams were subjected at their ends to an alternate cyclic loading under displacement control to simulate a seismic action. Strain and cracking fields were monitored with the help a digital recording camera. Following the analysis of the results, a comparison can be made between the performances in terms of ductility, strength and mode of failure of the different strengthening solution considered.

Keywords: fibre reinforced polymers, joints, reinforced concrete, beam columns

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Authors: Nasrullah khan

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Today business environment is very dynamic and most of organizations are in tough competition for their added values and sustainable hold in market. To achieve such objectives, organizations must have dynamic and creative people as optimized process. To get these people, there should strong human resource management system in organizations. There are multiple approaches have been devised in literature to hire more job relevant and more suitable people. This study proposed an ANP (Analytic Network Process) approach to hire faculty members for a university system. This study consists of two parts. In fist part, a through literature survey and universities interview are conducted in order to find the common criteria for the selection of academic staff. In second part the available candidates are prioritized on the basis of the relative values of these criteria. According to results the GRE & foreign language, GPA and research paper writing were most important factors for the selection of academic staff.

Keywords: creative people, ANP, academic staff, business environment

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Authors: Yassir Abdelrazig, Ren Moses

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Roadway planning and design is a very complex process involving five key phases before a project is completed; planning, project development, final design, right-of-way, and construction. The planning phase for a new roadway transportation project is a very critical phase as it greatly affects all latter phases of the project. A location study is usually performed during the preliminary planning phase in a new roadway project. The objective of the location study is to develop alignment alternatives that are cost efficient considering land acquisition and construction costs. This paper describes a methodology to develop optimal preliminary roadway alignments utilizing spatial-data. Four optimization criteria are taken into consideration; roadway length, land cost, land slope, and environmental impacts. The basic concept of the methodology is to convert the proposed project area into a grid, which represents the search space for an optimal alignment. The aforementioned optimization criteria are represented in each of the grid’s cells. A spatial-data optimization technique is utilized to find the optimal alignment in the search space based on the four optimization criteria. Two case studies for new roadway projects in Duval County in the State of Florida are presented to illustrate the methodology. The optimization output alignments are compared to the proposed Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) alignments. The comparison is based on right-of-way costs for the alignments. For both case studies, the right-of-way costs for the developed optimal alignments were found to be significantly lower than the FDOT alignments.

Keywords: gemoetric design, optimization, planning, roadway planning, roadway design

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Authors: Denvi Giovanita, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

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The pace of globalization and technological development make changes inevitable to organizations. However, organizational change is not easy to implement and is prone to failure. One of the reasons of change failure is due to lack of employees’ commitment to change. There are many variables that can influence employees’ commitment to change. The influencing factors can be sourced from the organization or individuals themselves. This study focuses on the affective form of commitment to change. The objective of this study is to identify the effect of transformational leadership (organizational factor) and employees’ change self-efficacy (individual factor) on affective commitment to change. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations that are or have faced organizational change. The data were collected using Affective Commitment to Change, Change Self-Efficacy, and Transformational Leadership Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that both transformational leadership and change self-efficacy have a positive and significant impact on affective commitment to change. The implication of the study can be used for practitioners to enhance the success of organizational change, by developing transformational leadership on the leaders and change self-efficacy on the employees in order to create a high affective commitment to change.

Keywords: affective commitment to change, change self-efficacy, organizational change, transformational leadership

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Authors: Panupong Chanplin, Wilailuk Mepracha, Sathapath Kilaso

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The aims of this research were twofold: 1) to logo design of Huay Kon Border Market, Chaloemphrakiat District, Nan Province and 2) to study the level of tourist satisfaction towards logo design of Huay Kon Border Market, Chaloemphrakiat District, Nan Province. Tourist satisfaction was measured using four criteria: a unique product identity, ease of remembrance, product utility, and beauty/impressiveness. The researcher utilized a probability sampling method via simple random sampling. The sample consisted of 30 tourists in the Huay Kon Border Market. Statistics utilized for data analysis were percentage, mean, and standard deviation. The results suggest that tourist had high levels of satisfaction towards all four criteria of the logo design that was designed to target them. This study proposes that specifically logo designed of Huay Kon Border Market could also be implemented with other real media already available on the market.

Keywords: satisfaction, logo, design, Huay Kon border market

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Ashraf Nawaz Khan, R. Alagirusamy, Apurba Das, Puneet Mahajan

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The thermoplastic-based fibre composites are acquiring a market sector of conventional as well as thermoset composites. However, replacing the thermoset with a thermoplastic composite has never been an easy task. The inherent high viscosity of thermoplastic resin reveals poor interface properties. In this work, a homo-polymer towpreg is produced through an electrostatic powder spray coating methodology. The produced flexible towpreg offers a low melt-flow distance during the consolidation of the laminate. The reduced melt-flow distance demonstrates a homogeneous fibre/matrix distribution (and low void content) on consolidation. The composite laminate has been fabricated with two manufacturing techniques such as conventional film stack (FS) and powder-coated (PC) technique. This helps in understanding the distinct response of produced laminates on applying load since the laminates produced through the two techniques are comprised of the same constituent fibre and matrix (constant fibre volume fraction). The changed behaviour is observed mainly due to the different fibre/matrix configurations within the laminate. The interface adhesion influences the load transfer between the fibre and matrix. Therefore, it influences the elastic, plastic, and failure patterns of the laminates. Moreover, the effect of preform geometries (plain weave and satin weave structure) are also studied for corresponding composite laminates in terms of various mechanical properties. The fracture analysis is carried out to study the effect of resin at the interlacement points through micro-CT analysis. The PC laminate reveals a considerably small matrix-rich and deficient zone in comparison to the FS laminate. The different load tensile, shear, fracture toughness, and drop weight impact test) is applied to the laminates, and corresponding damage behaviour is analysed in the successive stage of failure. The PC composite has shown superior mechanical properties in comparison to the FS composite. The damage that occurs in the laminate is captured through the SEM analysis to identify the prominent mode of failure, such as matrix cracking, fibre breakage, delamination, debonding, and other phenomena.

Keywords: composite, damage, fibre, manufacturing

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: A. Abbou, V. Makis, N. Salari

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We study the condition-based maintenance (CBM) problem of a system subject to stochastic deterioration. The system is composed of three units (or modules): (i) Module 1 deterioration follows a Markov process with two operational states and one failure state. The operational states are partially observable through periodic condition monitoring. (ii) Module 2 deterioration follows a Gamma process with a known failure threshold. The deterioration level of this module is fully observable through periodic inspections. (iii) Only the operating age information is available of Module 3. The lifetime of this module has a general distribution. A CBM policy prescribes when to initiate a maintenance intervention and which modules to repair during intervention. Our objective is to determine the optimal CBM policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost of operating the system. This is achieved by formulating a Markov decision process (MDP) and developing the value iteration algorithm for solving the MDP. We provide numerical examples illustrating the cost-effectiveness of the optimal CBM policy through a comparison with heuristic policies commonly found in the literature.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance optimization, Markov decision process, heuristics

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Authors: Francis Zerd, Brian E. Moore, Atuganile E. Malango, Patrick W. Hosokawa, Kevin O. Lillehei, Laurence Lemery Mchome, D. Ryan Ormond

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Introduction: Since neuropathologic diagnosis in the developing world is hampered by limitations in technical infrastructure, trained laboratory personnel, and subspecialty-trained pathologists, the use of telepathology for diagnostic support, second-opinion consultations, and ongoing training holds promise as a means of addressing these challenges. This research aims to assess the utility of static teleneuropathology in improving neuropathologic diagnoses in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Consecutive neurosurgical biopsy and resection specimens obtained at Muhimbili National Hospital in Tanzania between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019, were selected for retrospective, blinded static-image neuropathologic review followed by on-site review by an expert neuropathologist. Results: A total of 75 neuropathologic cases were reviewed. The agreement of static images and on-site glass diagnosis was 71% with strict criteria and 88% with less stringent criteria. This represents an overall improvement in diagnostic accuracy from 36% by general pathologists to 71% by a neuropathologist using static telepathology (or 76% to 88% with less stringent criteria). Conclusions: Telepathology offers a suitable means of providing diagnostic support, second-opinion consultations, and ongoing training to pathologists practicing in resource-limited countries. Moreover, static digital teleneuropathology is an uncomplicated, cost-effective, and reliable way to achieve these goals.

Keywords: neuropathology, resource-limited settings, static image, Tanzania, teleneuropathology

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Authors: Pratyasha Patnaik, A. V. Asha

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Laminated composite plates are made up of plates consisting of layers bonded together and made up of materials chemically different from each other but combined macroscopically. These have an application in aircrafts, railway coaches, bridges etc. because they are easy to handle, have got improved properties and the cost of their fabrication is low. But their failure can lead to catastrophic disasters. And generally, the failure of these structures is due to the combined effect of excessive stresses on it and buckling. Hence, the buckling behavior of these kinds of plates should be analyzed properly. Holes are provided either at the center or elsewhere in the laminar plates for the purpose of pipes for electric cables or other purposes. Due to the presence of holes in the plates, the stress concentration is near to the holes and the stiffness of the plates is reduced. In this study, the effect of a cut-out, its shape, different boundary conditions, length/thickness ratio, stacking sequence, and ply orientation has been studied. The analysis was carried out with laminated composite plates with circular, square and triangular cut-outs. Results show the effect of different cut-out shapes, boundary conditions, the orientation of layers and length/thickness ratio of the buckling load

Keywords: buckling, composite plates, cut-out, stress

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Authors: Meysam Naeimi, Zili Li, Roumen Petrov, Rolf Dollevoet, Jilt Sietsma, Jun Wu

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The substantial similarity of fatigue mechanism in a new test rig for rolling contact fatigue (RCF) has been investigated. A new reduced-scale test rig is designed to perform controlled RCF tests in wheel-rail materials. The fatigue mechanism of the rig is evaluated in this study using a combined finite element-fatigue prediction approach. The influences of loading conditions on fatigue crack initiation have been studied. Furthermore, the effects of some artificial defects (squat-shape) on fatigue lives are examined. To simulate the vehicle-track interaction by means of the test rig, a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is built up. The nonlinear material behaviour of the rail steel is modelled in the contact interface. The results of FE simulations are combined with the critical plane concept to determine the material points with the greatest possibility of fatigue failure. Based on the stress-strain responses, by employing of previously postulated criteria for fatigue crack initiation (plastic shakedown and ratchetting), fatigue life analysis is carried out. The results are reported for various loading conditions and different defect sizes. Afterward, the cyclic mechanism of the test rig is evaluated from the operational viewpoint. The results of fatigue life predictions are compared with the expected number of cycles of the test rig by its cyclic nature. Finally, the estimative duration of the experiments until fatigue crack initiation is roughly determined.

Keywords: fatigue, test rig, crack initiation, life, rail, squats

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Authors: Vimi Jham

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The banking sector has undergone tremendous change in all forms of service it provides to its customers. The efforts of the banks is to avoid customer defection and lead to customer satisfaction. The purpose of the study was to examine the linkages among the constructs such as customer perceived service quality, perceived service recovery quality and customer satisfaction in the banking industry. The moderating effect of negative brand perception due to service failure on recovery satisfaction were investigated. Random sampling methods are used to draw the sample from the population. Data was collected from 262 banking customers and were analyzed with the help of structural equation modelling approach using Smart PLS to understand the relationship among variables being studied. The results of the study contribute to the research by proving that customer service recovery satisfaction is dependent on customer perceived service quality and the moderating effect of negative brand perception due to service failure was insignificant.

Keywords: service recovery satisfaction, perceived service recovery quality, perceived service quality, structural equation modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Jamal Abdi

Abstract:

This paper offers a critique of Samuel P. Huntington's Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington's thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between 'groups' and 'categories'. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain the capacity for concerted action, i.e., become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations' transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington's clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of the presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: clash of civilizations, groups, categories, groupism

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Shih-Pin Chen, Shih-Syuan You

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This study proposes a regression model with flexible spreads for fuzzy input-output data to cope with the situation that the existing measures cannot reflect the actual estimation error. The main idea is that a dissemblance index (DI) is carefully identified and defined for precisely measuring the actual estimation error. Moreover, the graded mean integration (GMI) representation is adopted for determining more representative numeric regression coefficients. Notably, to comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed model with other ones, three different criteria are adopted. The results from commonly used test numerical examples and an application to Taiwan's business monitoring indicator illustrate that the proposed dissemblance index method not only produces valid fuzzy regression models for fuzzy input-output data, but also has satisfactory and stable performance in terms of the total estimation error based on these three criteria.

Keywords: dissemblance index, forecasting, fuzzy sets, linear regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Sujit Kumar Pradhan, Anil Kumar, Vijay Kumar

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The testing process of the software during the software development time is a crucial step as it makes the software more efficient and dependable. To estimate software’s reliability through the mean value function, many software reliability growth models (SRGMs) were developed under the assumption that operating and testing environments are the same. Practically, it is not true because when the software works in a natural field environment, the reliability of the software differs. This article discussed an SRGM comprising change-point and imperfect debugging in a simulated testing environment. Later on, we extended it in a multi-release direction. Initially, the software was released to the market with few features. According to the market’s demand, the software company upgraded the current version by adding new features as time passed. Therefore, we have proposed a generalized multi-release SRGM where change-point and imperfect debugging concepts have been addressed in a simulated testing environment. The failure-increasing rate concept has been adopted to determine the change point for each software release. Based on nine goodness-of-fit criteria, the proposed model is validated on two real datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed model fits the datasets better. We have also discussed the optimal release time of the software through a cost model by assuming that the testing and debugging costs are time-dependent.

Keywords: software reliability growth models, non-homogeneous Poisson process, multi-release software, mean value function, change-point, environmental factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: S. Daqiqeh Rezaei, S. Mohajerzadeh, M. R. Sharifi

Abstract:

Pedicle screws are used to stabilize vertebrae and treat several types of spinal diseases and injuries. Multiaxial pedicle screws are a type of pedicle screw that increase surgical versatility, but they also increase design complexity. Failure of multiaxial pedicle screws caused by static loading, dynamic loading and fatigue can lead to irreparable damage to the patient. Inappropriate deformation of the multiaxial pedicle screw tulip can cause system failure. Investigation of deformation and stress in these tulips can be employed to optimize multiaxial pedicle screw design. The sensitivity of this matter necessitates precise analyzing and modeling of pedicle screws. In this work, three commercial multiaxial pedicle screw tulips and a newly designed tulip are investigated using finite element analysis. Employing video measuring machine (VMM), tulips are modeled. Afterwards, utilizing ANSYS, static analysis is performed on these models. In the end, stresses and displacements of the models are compared.

Keywords: pedicle screw, multiaxial pedicle screw, finite element analysis, static analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 356

Authors: Muge Unal, Cengiz Uslu, Mehmet Faruk Altunkasa

Abstract:

Walkability relates to the ability of the places to connect people with varied destinations within a reasonable amount of time and effort, and to offer visual interest in journeys throughout the network. So, the good quality of the physical environment and arrangement of walkway and sidewalk appear to be more crucial in influencing the pedestrian route choice. Also, proximity, connectivity, and accessibility are significant factor for walkability in terms of an equal opportunity for using public spaces. As a result, there are two important points for walkability. Firstly, the place should have a well-planned street network for accessible and secondly facilitate the pedestrian need for comfort. In this respect, this study aims to examine the both physical and bioclimatic comfort levels of the current condition of pedestrian route with reference to design criteria of a street to access the urban green spaces. These aspects have been identified as the main indicators for walkable streets such as continuity, materials, slope, bioclimatic condition, walkway width, greenery, and surface. Additionally, the aim was to identify the factors that need to be considered in future guidelines and policies for planning and design in urban spaces especially streets. Adana city was chosen as a study area. Adana is a province of Turkey located in south-central Anatolia. This study workflow can be summarized in four stages: (1) environmental and physical data were collected by referred to literature and used in a weighted criteria method to determine the importance level of these data , (2) environmental characteristics of pedestrian routes gained from survey studies are evaluated to hierarchies these criteria of the collected information, (3) and then each pedestrian routes will have a score that provides comfortable access to the park, (4) finally, the comfortable routes to park will be mapped using GIS. It is hoped that this study will provide an insight into future development planning and design to create a friendly and more comfort street environment for the users.

Keywords: comfort level, geographical information system (GIS), walkability, weighted criteria method

Procedia PDF Downloads 304