Search results for: structural change model

Authors: Mehran Dizbadi, Daniyal Safarzadeh, Behrooz Arastoo, Ansgar Brunn

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Rapid and uncontrolled expansion of cities has led to unplanned aerial development. In this way, modeling and predicting the urban growth of a city helps decision-makers. In this study, the aspect of sustainable urban development has been studied for the city of Mashhad. In general, the prediction of urban aerial development is one of the most important topics of modern town management. In this research, using the Cellular Automaton (CA) model developed for geo data of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and presenting a simple and powerful model, a simulation of complex urban processes has been done.

Keywords: urban modeling, sustainable development, fuzzy cellular automaton, geo-information system

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Authors: Reza Shakoori

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This paper presents a structural correction of Arabic and Persian strokes using manipulation of their chain codes in order to improve the rate and performance of Persian and Arabic handwritten word recognition systems. It collects pure and effective features to represent a character with one consolidated feature vector and reduces variations in order to decrease the number of training samples and increase the chance of successful classification. Our results also show that how the proposed approaches can simplify classification and consequently recognition by reducing variations and possible noises on the chain code by keeping orientation of characters and their backbone structures.

Keywords: Arabic, chain code normalization, OCR systems, image processing

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Authors: Jeffreyson Wahlang

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the changes in the social status and role of Khasi women with the advent of modernisation and globalisation. Since all societies inevitably undergo social change, this paper will attempt to enquire about the path and direction to which women in Khasi Hills, Meghalaya is moving.

Keywords: status, role, women, Khasi Matriliny, gender

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Authors: S. M. Javad Davoodi, Mojtaba Shourian

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Groundwater table close to the ground surface causes major problems in construction and mining operation. One of the methods to control groundwater in such cases is using pumping wells. These pumping wells remove excess water from the site project and lower the water table to a desirable value. Although the efficiency of this method is acceptable, it needs high expenses to apply. It means even small improvement in a design of pumping wells can lead to substantial cost savings. In order to minimize the total cost in the method of pumping wells, a simulation-optimization approach is applied. The proposed model integrates MODFLOW as the simulation model with Firefly as the optimization algorithm. In fact, MODFLOW computes the drawdown due to pumping in an aquifer and the Firefly algorithm defines the optimum value of design parameters which are numbers, pumping rates and layout of the designing wells. The developed Firefly-MODFLOW model is applied to minimize the cost of the dewatering project for the ancient mosque of Kerman city in Iran. Repetitive runs of the Firefly-MODFLOW model indicates that drilling two wells with the total rate of pumping 5503 m3/day is the result of the minimization problem. Results show that implementing the proposed solution leads to at least 1.5 m drawdown in the aquifer beneath mosque region. Also, the subsidence due to groundwater depletion is less than 80 mm. Sensitivity analyses indicate that desirable groundwater depletion has an enormous impact on total cost of the project. Besides, in a hypothetical aquifer decreasing the hydraulic conductivity contributes to decrease in total water extraction for dewatering.

Keywords: groundwater dewatering, pumping wells, simulation-optimization, MODFLOW, firefly algorithm

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Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

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Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

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Authors: Siddharth Ojha, Varun Dua

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Classified as one of the most important reasons of aerodynamic drag in the sedan automobiles is the fluid flow separation near the vehicle’s rear end. To retard the separation of flow, bump-shaped vortex generators are being tested for its implementation to the roof end of a sedan vehicle. Frequently used in the aircrafts to prevent the separation of fluid flow, vortex generators themselves produce drag, but they also substantially reduce drag by preventing flow separation at the downstream. The net effects of vortex generators can be calculated by summing the positive and negative impacts and effects. Since this effect depends on dimensions and geometry of vortex generators, those present on the vehicle roof are optimized for maximum efficiency and performance. The model was tested through ANSYS CFD analysis and modeling. The model was tested in the wind tunnel for observing it’s properties such as aerodynamic drag and flow separation and a major time lag was gained by employing vortex generators in the scaled model. Major conclusions which were recorded during the analysis were a substantial 24% reduction in the aerodynamic drag and 14% increase in the efficiency of the sedan automobile as the flow separation from the surface is delayed. This paper presents the results of optimization, the effect of vortex generators in the flow field and the mechanism by which these effects occur and are regulated.

Keywords: aerodynamics, aerodynamic devices, body, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), flow visualization

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Authors: Kambiz Hassanzadeh, Seyedeh Shohreh Ebrahimi, Shahrbanoo Oryan, Arman Rahimmi, Esmael Izadpanah

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Parkinson’s disease is one of the most prevalent neurodegenerative diseases which occurs in elderly. There are convincing evidences that oxidative stress has an important role in both the initiation and progression of Parkinson’s disease. Thymoquinone (TQ) is shown to have antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties in invitro and invivo studies. It is well documented that TQ acts as a free radical scavenger and prevents the cell damage. Therefore this study aimed to evaluate the effect of TQ on motor and non-motor symptoms in animal model of Parkinson’s disease. Male Wistar rats (10-12 months) received rotenone (1mg/kg/day, sc) to induce Parkinson’s disease model. Pretreatment with TQ (7.5 and 15 mg/kg/day, po) was administered one hour before the rotenone injection. Three motor tests (rotarod, rearing and bar tests) and two non-motor tests (forced swimming and elevated plus maze) were performed for behavioral assessment. Our results indicated that TQ significantly ameliorated the rotenone-induced motor dysfunction in rotarod and rearing tests also it could prevent the non-motor dysfunctions in forced swimming and elevated plus maze tests. In conclusion we found that TQ delayed the Parkinson's disease induction by rotenone and this effect might be related to its proved antioxidant effect.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, thymoquinone, motor and non-motor symptoms, neurodegenerative disease

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Authors: A. Shahsavar, Z. Jakub

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Due to the outstanding properties of the 2D metal-organic frameworks (MOF), intensive computational and experimental studies have been done. However, the lack of fundamental studies of MOFs on the graphene backbone is observed. This work studies Fe and Ni as metal and tetracyanoquinodimethane (TCNQ) with a high electron affinity as an organic linker functionalized on graphene. Here we present DFT calculations results to unveil the electronic and magnetic properties of iron and nickel-TCNQ physisorbed on graphene. Adsorption and Fermi energies, structural, and magnetic properties will be reported. Our experimental observations prove Fe- and NiTCNQ@Gr/Ir(111) are thermally highly stable up to 500 and 250°C, respectively, making them promising materials for single-atom catalysts or high-density storage media.

Keywords: DFT, graphene, MTCNQ, self-assembly

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Authors: Xue Xiao, Sun Hao, Liu Donghua

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E-commerce is experiencing rapid development and evolution, but traditional research methods are difficult to fully demonstrate the relationship between micro factors and macro evolution in the development process of e-commerce, which cannot provide accurate assessment for the existing strategies and predict the future evolution trends. To solve these problems, this paper presents the concept of e-commerce service ecosystem based on the characteristics of e-commerce and business ecosystem theory, describes e-commerce environment as a complex adaptive system from the perspective of ecology, constructs a e-commerce service ecosystem model by using Agent-based modeling method and Java language in RePast simulation platform and conduct experiment through the way of computational experiment, attempt to provide a suitable and effective researching method for the research on e-commerce evolution. By two experiments, it can be found that system model built in this paper is able to show the evolution process of e-commerce service ecosystem and the relationship between micro factors and macro emergence. Therefore, the system model constructed by Agent-based method and computational experiment provides proper means to study the evolution of e-commerce ecosystem.

Keywords: e-commerce service ecosystem, complex system, agent-based modeling, computational experiment

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Authors: Tertia Delia Nova, Masaji Watanabge

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Infection of bird flu within a poultry farm involves hosts, virus, and medium. Intrusion of bird flu into a poultry farm divides the population into two groups; healthy and susceptible chickens and infected chickens. A healthy and susceptible bird is infected to become an infected bird. Bird flu viruses spread among chickens through medium such as air and droppings, and increase in hosts. A model for an infection process of bird flu within a poultry farm is described, numerical techniques are illustrated, and numerical results are introduced.

Keywords: bird flu, poultry farm, model for an infection process, flu viruses

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Authors: H. Aghayan, F. A. Hashemi, R. Yavari, S. Zolghadri

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In this work, a new composite adsorbent based on a mesoporous silica SBA-15 with platelet morphology and tin salt of tungstomolybdophosphoric (TWMP) acid was synthesized and applied for uranium adsorption from aqueous solution. The sample was characterized by X-ray diffraction, Fourier transfer infra-red, and N₂ adsorption-desorption analysis, and then, effect of various parameters such as concentration of metal ions and contact time on adsorption behavior was examined. The experimental result showed that the adsorption process was explained by the Langmuir isotherm model very well, and predominant reaction mechanism is physisorption. Kinetic data of adsorption suggest that the adsorption process can be described by the pseudo second-order reaction rate model.

Keywords: platelet SBA-15, tungstomolybdophosphoric acid, adsorption, uranium ion

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Authors: Solomon Assefa Huluka

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Wounds account for severe morbidity, socioeconomic distress, and mortality around the globe.For several years, various herbal products are used to expediteand augment the innate wound healing process. In Ethiopian folkloricmedicine, Verbascum sinaiticum L. (V. sinaiticum) is commonlyapplied as a wound-healing agent. The present study investigated the potential wound healing and antioxidant properties of hydroalcoholic leaf extract of V. sinaiticum. The 80% methanol extract, formulated as 5% (w/w) and 10% (w/w) ointments, was evaluated in excision and incision wound models using nitrofurazone and simple ointment as positive and negative controls, respectively. Parameters such as wound contraction, period of epithelialization, and tensile strength were determined. Moreover, its in vitro antioxidant property was evaluated using a DPPH assay. In the excision model, both doses (5% and 10% w/w) of the extract showed a significant (p<0.001) wound healing efficacy compared to the negative control, as evidenced by enhanced wound contraction rate and shorter epithelialization time records. In the incision model, the lower dose (5% w/w) ointment formulation of the extract exhibited the maximum increment in tensile strength (85.6%) that was significant (p<0.001)compared to negative and untreated controls. Animals treated with 5% w/wointment, furthermore, showed a significantly (p < 0.05) higher percentage of tensile strength than nitrofurazone treated ones. Moreover, the hydroalcoholic extract of the plant showed a noticeable free radical scavenging property. The result of the present study upholds the folkloric use of V. sinaiticum in the treatment of wounds.

Keywords: wound healing, antioxidant, excision wound model, incision wound model, verbascum sinaiticum

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Authors: Luis C. Parra

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The significant wave height prediction is an issue of great interest in the field of coastal activities because of the non-linear behavior of the wave height and its complexity of prediction. This study aims to present a machine learning model to forecast the significant wave height of the oceanographic wave measuring buoys anchored at Mooloolaba of the Queensland Government Data. Modeling was performed by a multilayer perceptron neural network-genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), considering Relu(x) as the activation function of the MLPNN. The GA is in charge of optimized the MLPNN hyperparameters (learning rate, hidden layers, neurons, and activation functions) and wrapper feature selection for the window width size. Results are assessed using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The GAMLPNN algorithm was performed with a population size of thirty individuals for eight generations for the prediction optimization of 5 steps forward, obtaining a performance evaluation of 0.00104 MSE, 0.03222 RMSE, 0.02338 MAE, and 0.71163% of MAPE. The results of the analysis suggest that the MLPNNGA model is effective in predicting significant wave height in a one-step forecast with distant time windows, presenting 0.00014 MSE, 0.01180 RMSE, 0.00912 MAE, and 0.52500% of MAPE with 0.99940 of correlation factor. The GA-MLP algorithm was compared with the ARIMA forecasting model, presenting better performance criteria in all performance criteria, validating the potential of this algorithm.

Keywords: significant wave height, machine learning optimization, multilayer perceptron neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Fouzia Amireche-Ziar, Ilham Mokbel, Jacques Jose

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The vapour pressures of the three binary mixtures: 1, 2- dichloroethane + 1,3-dioxolane, + 1,4-dioxane or + tetrahydropyrane, are carried out at ten temperatures ranging from 273 to 353.15 K. An accurate static device was employed for these measurements. The VLE data were reduced using the Redlich-Kister equation by taking into consideration the vapour pressure non-ideality in terms of the second molar virial coefficient. The experimental data were compared to the results predicted with the DISQUAC and Dortmund UNIFAC group contribution models for the total pressures P and the excess molar Gibbs energies GE.

Keywords: disquac model, dortmund UNIFAC model, excess molar Gibbs energies GE, VLE

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Authors: A. Attaf, I. Bouhaf Kharkhachi

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Hexagonal tin disulfide (SnS2) films were deposited by spray ultrasonic technique on glass substrates at different experimental conditions. The effect of deposition time (2, 4, 6, and 7 min) on different properties of SnS2 thin films was investigated by XRD and UV spectroscopy visible spectrum. X-ray diffraction study detected the preferential orientation growth of SnS2 compound having structure along (001) plane increased with the deposition time. The results of UV spectroscopy visible spectrum showed that films deposited at 4 min have high transmittance, up to 60%, in the visible region.

Keywords: structural and optical properties, tin sulfide, thin films, ultrasonic spray

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Authors: Myisha Ahmad, G. M. Jahid Hasan

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Electricity is the pinnacle of human civilization. At present, the growing concerns over significant climate change have intensified the importance of the use of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation. The interest is primarily due to better energy security, smaller environmental impact and providing a sustainable alternative compared to the conventional energy sources. Solar power, wind, biomass, tidal power, and wave power are some of the most reliable sources of renewable energy. Ocean approximately holds 2×10³ TW of energy and has the largest renewable energy resource on the planet. Ocean energy has many forms namely, encompassing tides, ocean circulation, surface waves, salinity and thermal gradients. Ocean tide in particular, associates both potential and kinetic energy. The study is focused on the latter concept that deals with tidal current energy conversion technologies. Tidal streams or marine currents generate kinetic energy that can be extracted by marine current energy devices and converted into transmittable energy form. The principle of technology development is very comparable to that of wind turbines. Conversion of marine tidal resources into substantial electrical power offers immense opportunities to countries endowed with such resources and this work is aimed at addressing such prospects of Bangladesh. The study analyzed the extracted current velocities from numerical model works at several locations in the Bay of Bengal. Based on current magnitudes, directions and available technologies the most fitted locations were adopted and possible annual generation capacity was estimated. The paper also examines the future prospects of tidal current energy along the Bay of Bengal and establishes a constructive approach that could be adopted in future project developments.

Keywords: bay of Bengal, energy potential, renewable energy, tidal current

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Authors: Juan Huang, Hugo Ninanya

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Oil has been used as a source of energy and supply to make materials, such as asphalt or rubber for many years. This is the reason why new technologies have been implemented through time. However, research still needs to continue increasing due to new challenges engineers face every day, just like unconventional reservoirs. Various numerical methodologies have been applied in petroleum engineering as tools in order to optimize the production of reservoirs before drilling a wellbore, although not all of these have the same efficiency when talking about studying fracture propagation. Analytical methods like those based on linear elastic fractures mechanics fail to give a reasonable prediction when simulating fracture propagation in ductile materials whereas numerical methods based on the cohesive zone method (CZM) allow to represent the elastoplastic behavior in a reservoir based on a constitutive model; therefore, predictions in terms of displacements and pressure will be more reliable. In this work, a hydro-geomechanical coupled model of horizontal wells in fractured rock was developed using ABAQUS; both extended element method and cohesive elements were used to represent predefined fractures in a model (2-D). A power law for representing the rheological behavior of fluid (shear-thinning, power index <1) through fractures and leak-off rate permeating to the matrix was considered. Results have been showed in terms of aperture and length of the fracture, pressure within fracture and fluid loss. It was showed a high infiltration rate to the matrix as power index decreases. A sensitivity analysis is conclusively performed to identify the most influential factor of fluid loss.

Keywords: fracture, hydro-geomechanical model, non-Newtonian fluid, numerical analysis, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Wang Yanli, Cheng Yun, Yang Jiarui

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Due to the separation of teachers and students, online teaching during the COVID-19 epidemic was faced with many problems, such as low enthusiasm of students, distraction, low learning atmosphere, and insufficient interaction between teachers and students. The essay designed the elaborate online learning activities of the course 'Research Methods of Educational Science' based on the APT model from three aspects of multiple assessment methods, a variety of teaching methods, and online learning environment and technology. Student's online learning experience was examined from the perception of online course, the perception of the online learning environment, and satisfaction after the course’s implementation. The research results showed that students have a positive overall evaluation of online courses, a high degree of engagement in learning, positive acceptance of online learning, and high satisfaction with it, but students hold a relatively neutral attitude toward online learning. And some dimensions in online learning experience were found to have positive influence on students' satisfaction with online learning. We suggest making the good design of online courses, selecting proper learning platforms, and conducting blended learning to improve students’ learning experience. This study has both theoretical and practical significance for the design, implementation, effect feedback, and sustainable development of online teaching in the post-epidemic era.

Keywords: APT model, online learning, online learning activities, learning experience

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Authors: Hasan Heydari

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In recent decades, locating urban services is one of the significant discussions in urban planning. Among these considerations, cities require more accurate planning in order to supply citizen needs, especially part of urban safety. In order to gain this goal, one of the main tasks of urban planners and managers is specifying suitable sites to locate firefighting stations. This study has been done to reach this purpose. Therefore effective criteria consist of coverage radius, population density, proximity to pathway network, land use (compatible and incompatible neighborhood) have been specified. After that, descriptive and local information of the criteria was provided and their layers were created in ArcGIS 9.3. Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) these criteria and their sub-criteria got the weights. These layers were classified regarding their weights and finally were overlaid by Index Overlay Model and provided the final site selection map for firefighting stations of Arak city. The results gained by analyzing in GIS environment indicate the existing fire station don’t cover the whole city sufficiently and some of the stations have established on the unsuitable sites. The output map indicates the best sites to locate firefighting stations of Arak.

Keywords: site-selection, firefighting stations, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), GIS, index overlay model

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Authors: E. H. N. Gashti, M. Zarrini, M. Irannezhad, J. R. Langroudi

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Using ETABS software, this study analyzed 23 buildings to evaluate effects of mistakes during construction phase on buildings structural behavior. For modelling, two different loadings were assumed: 1) design loading and 2) loading due to the effects of mistakes in construction phase. Research results determined that considering traditional construction methods for buildings resulted in a significant increase in dead loads and consequently intensified the displacements and base-shears of buildings under seismic loads.

Keywords: reinforced-concrete buildings, construction mistakes, base-shear, displacements, failure

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Authors: S. R. Dehghani, G. F. Naterer, Y. S. Muzychka

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Wave-impact sea spray creates many droplets which form a spray cloud traveling over marine objects same as marine vessels and offshore structures. In cold climates such as Arctic reigns, sea spray icing, which is ice accretion on cold substrates, is strongly dependent on the wave-impact sea spray. The rate of cooling of droplets affects the process of icing that can yield to dry or wet ice accretion. Trajectories of droplets determine the potential places for ice accretion. Combining two models of trajectories and heat transfer for droplets can predict the risk of ice accretion reasonably. The majority of the cooling of droplets is because of droplet evaporations. In this study, a combined model using trajectory and heat transfer evaluate the situation of a cloud of spray from the generation to impingement. The model uses some known geometry and initial information from the previous case studies. The 3D model is solved numerically using a standard numerical scheme. Droplets are generated in various size ranges from 7 mm to 0.07 mm which is a suggested range for sea spray icing. The initial temperature of droplets is considered to be the sea water temperature. Wind velocities are assumed same as that of the field observations. Evaluations are conducted using some important heading angles and wind velocities. The characteristic of size-velocity dependence is used to establish a relation between initial sizes and velocities of droplets. Time intervals are chosen properly to maintain a stable and fast numerical solution. A statistical process is conducted to evaluate the probability of expected occurrences. The medium size droplets can reach the highest heights. Very small and very large droplets are limited to lower heights. Results show that higher initial velocities create the most expanded cloud of spray. Wind velocities affect the extent of the spray cloud. The rate of droplet cooling at the start of spray formation is higher than the rest of the process. This is because of higher relative velocities and also higher temperature differences. The amount of water delivery and overall temperature for some sample surfaces over a marine vessel are calculated. Comparing results and some field observations show that the model works accurately. This model is suggested as a primary model for ice accretion on marine vessels.

Keywords: evaporation, sea spray, marine icing, numerical solution, trajectory

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Authors: Angshuman Raha, Abesh Kumar Sanyal, Uttaran Bandyopadhyay, Kaushik Mallick, Kamalika Bhattacharyya, Subrata Gayen, Gaurab Nandi Das, Mohd. Ali, Kailash Chandra

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Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), due to its sheer latitudinal and altitudinal expanse, acts as a mixing ground for different zoogeographic faunal elements. The innumerable unique and distributional restricted rare species of IHR are constantly being threatened with extinction by the ongoing climate change scenario. Many of which might have faced extinction without even being noticed or discovered. Monitoring the community dynamics of a suitable taxon is indispensable to assess the effect of this global perturbation at micro-habitat level. Lepidoptera, particularly moths are suitable for this purpose due to their huge diversity and strict herbivorous nature. The present study aimed to collate scattered historical records of moths from IHR and spatially disseminate the same in Geographic Information System (GIS) domain. The study also intended to identify moth species with significant altitudinal shifts which could be prioritised for monitoring programme to assess the effect of climate change on biodiversity. A robust database on moths recorded from IHR was prepared from voluminous secondary literature and museum collections. Historical sampling points were transformed into richness grids which were spatially overlaid on altitude, annual precipitation and vegetation layers separately to show moth richness patterns along major environmental gradients. Primary samplings were done by setting standard light traps at 11 Protected Areas representing five Indian Himalayan biogeographic provinces. To identify significant altitudinal shifts, past and present altitudinal records of the identified species from primary samplings were compared. A consolidated list of 4107 species belonging to 1726 genera of 62 families of moths was prepared from a total of 10,685 historical records from IHR. Family-wise assemblage revealed Erebidae to be the most speciose family with 913 species under 348 genera, followed by Geometridae with 879 species under 309 genera and Noctuidae with 525 species under 207 genera. Among biogeographic provinces, Central Himalaya represented maximum records with 2248 species, followed by Western and North-western Himalaya with 1799 and 877 species, respectively. Spatial analysis revealed species richness was more or less uniform (up to 150 species record per cell) across IHR. Throughout IHR, the middle elevation zones between 1000-2000m encompassed high species richness. Temperate coniferous forest associated with 1500-2000mm rainfall zone showed maximum species richness. Total 752 species of moths were identified representing 23 families from the present sampling. 13 genera were identified which were restricted to specialized habitats of alpine meadows over 3500m. Five historical localities with high richness of >150 species were selected which could be considered for repeat sampling to assess climate change influence on moth assemblage. Of the 7 species exhibiting significant altitudinal ascend of >2000m, Trachea auriplena, Diphtherocome fasciata (Noctuidae) and Actias winbrechlini (Saturniidae) showed maximum range shift of >2500m, indicating intensive monitoring of these species. Great Himalayan National Park harbours most diverse assemblage of high-altitude restricted species and should be a priority site for habitat conservation. Among the 13 range restricted genera, Arichanna, Opisthograptis, Photoscotosia (Geometridae), Phlogophora, Anaplectoides and Paraxestia (Noctuidae) were dominant and require rigorous monitoring, as they are most susceptible to climatic perturbations.

Keywords: altitudinal shifts, climate change, historical records, Indian Himalayan region, Lepidoptera

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Mansha Kotwani

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The specific spatio-temporal calcium concentration patterns are required by the fibroblasts to maintain its structure and functions. Thus, calcium concentration is regulated in cell at different levels in various activities of the cell. The variations in cytosolic calcium concentration largely depend on the buffers present in cytosol and influx of calcium into cytosol from ER through IP3Rs or Raynodine receptors followed by reuptake of calcium into ER through sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic reticulum ATPs (SERCA) pump. In order to understand the mechanisms of wound repair, tissue remodeling and growth performed by fibroblasts, it is of crucial importance to understand the mechanisms of calcium concentration regulation in fibroblasts. In this paper, a model has been developed to study calcium distribution in NRK fibroblast in the presence of buffers and ER flux with SERCA pump. The model has been developed for two dimensional unsteady state case. Appropriate initial and boundary conditions have been framed along with physiology of the cell. Finite element technique has been employed to obtain the solution. The numerical results have been used to study the effect of buffers, ER flux and source amplitude on calcium distribution in fibroblast cell.

Keywords: buffers, IP3R, ER flux, SERCA pump, source amplitude

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

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Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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Authors: Melissa Langevin, Natalie Ward, Colleen Fitzgibbons, Christa Ramsey, Melanie Hogue, Anna Theresa Lobos

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Description: Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is used by health care teams to examine adverse events (AEs) to identify causes which then leads to recommendations for prevention Despite widespread use, RCA has limitations. Best practices have not been established for implementing recommendations or tracking the impact of interventions after AEs. During phase 1 of this study, we used simulation to analyze two fictionalized AEs that occurred in hospitalized paediatric patients to identify and understand how the errors occurred and generated recommendations to mitigate and prevent recurrences. Scenario A involved an error of commission (inpatient drug error), and Scenario B involved detecting an error that already occurred (critical care drug infusion error). Recommendations generated were: improved drug labeling, specialized drug kids, alert signs and clinical checklists. Aim: Use simulation to optimize interventions recommended post critical event analysis prior to implementation in the clinical environment. Methods: Suggested interventions from Phase 1 were designed and tested through scenario simulation in the clinical environment (medicine ward or pediatric intensive care unit). Each scenario was simulated 8 times. Recommendations were tested using different, voluntary teams and each scenario was debriefed to understand why the error was repeated despite interventions and how interventions could be improved. Interventions were modified with subsequent simulations until recommendations were felt to have an optimal effect and data saturation was achieved. Along with concrete suggestions for design and process change, qualitative data pertaining to employee communication and hospital standard work was collected and analyzed. Results: Each scenario had a total of three interventions to test. In, scenario 1, the error was reproduced in the initial two iterations and mitigated following key intervention changes. In scenario 2, the error was identified immediately in all cases where the intervention checklist was utilized properly. Independently of intervention changes and improvements, the simulation was beneficial to identify which of these should be prioritized for implementation and highlighted that even the potential solutions most frequently suggested by participants did not always translate into error prevention in the clinical environment. Conclusion: We conclude that interventions that help to change process (epinephrine kit or mandatory checklist) were more successful at preventing errors than passive interventions (signage, change in memory aids). Given that even the most successful interventions needed modifications and subsequent re-testing, simulation is key to optimizing suggested changes. Simulation is a safe, practice changing modality for institutions to use prior to implementing recommendations from RCA following AE reviews.

Keywords: adverse events, patient safety, pediatrics, root cause analysis, simulation

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Authors: T. C. C. Soo, S. Bhassu

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Unlike the common presence of both innate and adaptive immunity in vertebrates, crustaceans, in particular, shrimps, have been discovered to possess only innate immunity. This further emphasizes the importance of innate immunity within shrimps in pathogenic resistance. Under the study of pathogenic immune challenge, different shrimp species actually exhibit varying degrees of immune resistance towards the same pathogen. Furthermore, even within the same shrimp species, different batches of challenged shrimps can have different strengths of immune defence. Several important pathways are activated within shrimps during pathogenic infection. One of them is JAK-STAT pathway that is activated during bacterial, viral and fungal infections by which STAT(Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription) gene is the core element of the pathway. Based on theory of Central Dogma, the genomic information is transmitted in the order of DNA, RNA and protein. This study is focused in uncovering the important evolutionary patterns present within the DNA (non-coding region) and RNA (coding region). The three shrimp species involved are Macrobrachium rosenbergii, Penaeus monodon and Litopenaeus vannamei which all possess commercial significance. The shrimp species were challenged with a famous penaeid shrimp virus called white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) which can cause serious lethality. Tissue samples were collected during time intervals of 0h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 36h and 48h. The DNA and RNA samples were then extracted using conventional kits from the hepatopancreas tissue samples. PCR technique together with designed STAT gene conserved primers were utilized for identification of the STAT coding sequences using RNA-converted cDNA samples and subsequent characterization using various bioinformatics approaches including Ramachandran plot, ProtParam and SWISS-MODEL. The varying levels of immune STAT gene activation for the three shrimp species during WSSV infection were confirmed using qRT-PCR technique. For one sample, three biological replicates with three technical replicates each were used for qRT-PCR. On the other hand, DNA samples were important for uncovering the structural variations within the genomic region of STAT gene which would greatly assist in understanding the STAT protein functional variations. The partially-overlapping primers technique was used for the genomic region sequencing. The evolutionary inferences and event predictions were then conducted through the Bayesian Inference method using all the acquired coding and non-coding sequences. This was supplemented by the construction of conventional phylogenetic trees using Maximum likelihood method. The results showed that adaptive evolution caused STAT gene sequence mutations between different shrimp species which led to evolutionary divergence event. Subsequently, the divergent sites were correlated to the differing expressions of STAT gene. Ultimately, this study assists in knowing the shrimp species innate immune variability and selection of disease resistant shrimps for breeding purpose. The deeper understanding of STAT gene evolution from the perspective of both purifying and adaptive approaches not only can provide better immunological insight among shrimp species, but also can be used as a good reference for immunological studies in humans or other model organisms.

Keywords: gene evolution, JAK-STAT pathway, immunology, STAT gene

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Authors: R. Andreola, O. A. A. Santos, L. M. M. Jorge

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An industrial system for the production of white liquor of a paper industry, Klabin Paraná Papé is, formed by ten reactors was modeled, simulated, and analyzed. The developed model considered possible water losses by evaporation and reaction, in addition to variations in volumetric flow of lime mud across the reactors due to composition variations. The model predictions agreed well with the process measurements at the plant and the results showed that the slaking reaction is nearly complete at the third causticizing reactor, while causticizing ends by the seventh reactor. Water loss due to slaking reaction and evaporation occurs more pronouncedly in the slaking reaction than in the final causticizing reactors; nevertheless, the lime mud flow remains nearly constant across the reactors.

Keywords: causticizing, lime, prediction, process

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Authors: Kalyani Kulkarni, Bharat Chaudhari

Abstract:

This paper addresses the issue of resource allocation in the emerging cognitive technology. Focusing the quality of service (QoS) of primary users (PU), a novel method is proposed for the resource allocation of secondary users (SU). In this paper, we propose the unique utility function in the game theoretic model of Cognitive Radio which can be maximized to increase the capacity of the cognitive radio network (CRN) and to minimize the interference scenario. The utility function is formulated to cater the need of PUs by observing Signal to Noise ratio. The existence of Nash equilibrium is for the postulated game is established.

Keywords: cognitive networks, game theory, Nash equilibrium, resource allocation

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Authors: Belkis L. Cabrera

Abstract:

Contemporary technological innovations have reshaped possibility, interaction, communication, engagement, education, and training. Indeed, today, a high-quality technology enhanced learning experience can be transformative as much for the learner as for the educator-trainer. As innovative technologies continue to facilitate, support, foster, and enhance collaboration, problem-solving, creativity, adaptiveness, multidisciplinarity, and communication, the field of instructional design (ID) also continues to develop and expand. Shifting its focus from media to the systematic design of instruction, or rather from the gadgets and devices themselves to the theories, models, and impact of implementing educational technology, the evolution of ID marks a restructuring of the teaching, learning, and training paradigms. However, with all of its promise, this latter component of ID remains underdeveloped. The majority of ID models are crafted and guided by learning theories and, therefore, most models are constructed around student and educator roles rather than trainer roles. Thus, when these models or systems are employed for training purposes, they usually have to be re-fitted, tweaked, and stretched to meet the training needs. This paper is concerned with the training or professional development (PD) facet of instructional design and how ID models built on teacher-to-teacher interaction and dialogue can support the creation of professional learning communities (PLCs) or communities of practice (CoPs), which can augment learning and PD experiences for all. Just as technology is changing the face of education, so too can it change the face of PD within the educational realm. This paper not only provides a new ID model but using innovative technologies such as Padlet and Thinkbinder, this paper presents a concrete example of how a traditional body-to-body, brick, and mortar learning community can be transferred and transformed into the online context.

Keywords: communities of practice, e-learning, educational reform, instructional design, professional development, professional learning communities, technology, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 333