Search results for: hedging and risk management

Authors: Charles Masulani Mwale

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Background: It is argued that 85% of children with the disability live in resource-poor countries where there are few available disability services. A majority of these children, including their parents, suffer a lot as a result of the disability and its associated stigmatization, leading to a marginalized life. These parents also experience more stress and mental health problems such as depression, compared with families of normal developing children. There is little research from Africa addressing these issues especially among parents of intellectually disabled children. WHO encourages research on the impact that child with a disability have on their family and appropriate training and support to the families so that they can promote the child’s development and well-being. This study investigated the parenting experiences, mechanisms of coping with these challenges and psychosocial needs while caring for children with intellectual disabilities in both rural and urban settings of Lilongwe and Mzuzu. Methods: This is part of a larger Mixed-methods study aimed at developing a contextualized psychosocial intervention for parents of intellectually disabled children. 16 focus group discussions and four in-depth interviews were conducted with parents in catchments areas for St John of God and Children of Blessings in Mzuzu and Lilongwe cities respectively. Ethical clearance was obtained from COMREC. Data were stored in NVivo software for easy retrieval and management. All interviews were tape-recorded, transcribed and translated into English. Note-taking was performed during all the observations. Data triangulation from the interviews, note taking and the observations were done for validation and reliability. Results: Caring for intellectually disabled children comes with a number of challenges. Parents experience stigma and discrimination; fear for the child’s future; have self-blame and guilt; get coerced by neighbors to kill the disabled child; and fear violence by and to the child. Their needs include respite relief, improved access to disability services, education on disability management and financial support. For their emotional stability, parents cope by sharing with others and turning to God while other use poor coping mechanisms like alcohol use. Discussion and Recommendation: Apart from neighbors’ coercion to eliminate the child life, the findings of this study are similar to those done in other countries like Kenya and Pakistan. It is recommended that parents get educated on disability, its causes, and management to array fears of unknown. Community education is also crucial to promote community inclusiveness and correct prevailing myths associated with disability. Disability institutions ought to intensify individual as well as group counseling services to these parents. Further studies need to be done to design culturally appropriate and specific psychosocial interventions for the parents to promote their psychological resilience.

Keywords: psychological distress, intellectual disability, psychosocial interventions, mental health, psychological resilience, children

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Authors: Ke Qiu, Minzi Mao, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Although much has been done to investigate the influence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on cognitive function, little attention has been paid to the role which gender differences play in this association. In the present study, we aim to explore the gender-specific association between OSA and cognitive impairment. Participants from UK biobank who have completed at least one of the five baseline cognitive tests (visuospatial memory, prospective memory, fluid intelligence, short numeric memory and reaction time) were included and were further categorized into three groups: (1) OSA, (2) self-reported snoring but without OSA, and (3) healthy controls (without OSA or snoring). Multivariable regression analysis was performed to examine the associations among snoring, OSA and performance of each of the five cognitive domains. A total of 267,889 participants (47% male, mean age: 57 years old) were included in our study. In the multivariable regression analysis, female participants in the OSA group had a higher risk of having poor prospective memory (OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02～1.50, p = 0.03). Meanwhile, among female participants, OSA were inversely associated with the performances of fluid intelligence (β: -0.29, 95% CI: -0.46～-0.13, p < 0.001) and short-numeric memory (β: -0.14, 95% CI: -0.35～0.08, p = 0.02). In contrast, among male participants, no significant association was observed between OSA and impairment of the five cognitive domains. Overall, OSA was significantly associated with cognitive impairment in female participants rather than in male participants, indicating that more special attention and timely interventions should be given to female OSA patients to prevent further cognitive impairment.

Keywords: obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), cognitive impairment, gender-specific association, UK biobank

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Authors: Parvin Farzanegi

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Background: Diabetes is a metabolic disorder associated with increased free radicals and oxidative stress. The evidence indicates that physical inactivity is a modifiable behavioral risk factor for a wide range of chronic disorders such as diabetes mellitus. We investigated the effects of eight-week aerobic exercise on some antioxidant enzyme activities in postmenopausal women with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: sixteen sedentary postmenopausal women with T2DM were randomly assigned to the control (n=8; CG) and exercise group (n=8; EG). The exercise consisted of progressive aerobic training at a moderate intensity (50-70% of the maximum heart rate), for 25-60 min/day, and 3 days/week for 8 weeks. Age, sex, and body mass index were similar in the two groups. Antioxidant status was evaluated by measuring the superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT) activity. Also levels of malondialdehyde (MDA) as an index of lipid peroxidation and glucose in the plasma were measured before and after the intervention. Results: Following the 8 weeks of exercise training, the plasma MDA and glucose levels were significantly reduced in EG compared to CG (P=0.001 and P=0.011 respectively). However, SOD (P=0.017) and CAT (P=0.011) activities were increased in EG compared to CG. Conclusion: The present study suggests regular aerobic exercise appears can exert protective effects against oxidative stress due to its ability to increase antioxidant defense and glucose control in postmenopausal women with T2DM.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, antioxidant, diabetes mellitus, type 2

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Authors: Sumeyra Sevim, Gulsum Gizem Topal, Mercan Merve Tengilimoglu-Metin, Mevlude Kizil

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Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) is a major toxic and carcinogenic molecule in milk and milk products. Therefore, it poses a risk for public health. Probiotics can be biological agent to remove AFM1. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of probiotic bacteria on AFM1 detoxification in phosphate buffer saline. The PBS samples artificially contaminated with AFM1 at concentration 100 pg/ml were prepared with probiotics bacteria that including monoculture (L. plantarum, B. bifidum ATCC, B. animalis ATCC 27672) and binary culture (L. bulgaricus + S. thermophiles, B. bifidum ATCC + B. animalis ATCC 27672, L. plantarum+B. bifidum ATCC, L. plantarum+ B. animalis ATCC 27672). The samples were incubated at 37°C for 4 hours and stored for 1, 5 and 10 days. The toxin was measured by the ELISA. The highest levels of AFM1 binding ability (63.6%) in PBS were detected yoghurt starter bacteria, while L. plantarum had the lowest levels of AFM1 binding ability (35.5%) in PBS. In addition, it was found that there was significant effect of storage on AFM1 binding ability in all groups except the one including B. animalis (p < 0.05). Consequently, results demonstrate that AFM1 detoxification by probiotic bacteria has a potential application to reduce toxin concentrations in yoghurt. Moreover, probiotic strains can react with itself as synergic or antagonist.

Keywords: aflatoxin M1, ELISA, probiotics, storage

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Authors: Xinyuan Y. Song, Kai Kang

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Joint models for analyzing longitudinal and survival data are widely used to investigate the relationship between a failure time process and time-variant predictors. A common assumption in conventional joint models in the survival analysis literature is that all predictors are observable. However, this assumption may not always be supported because unobservable traits, namely, latent variables, which are indirectly observable and should be measured through multiple observed variables, are commonly encountered in the medical, behavioral, and financial research settings. In this study, a joint modeling approach to deal with this feature is proposed. The proposed model comprises three parts. The first part is a dynamic factor analysis model for characterizing latent variables through multiple observed indicators over time. The second part is a random coefficient trajectory model for describing the individual trajectories of latent variables. The third part is a proportional hazard model for examining the effects of time-invariant predictors and the longitudinal trajectories of time-variant latent risk factors on hazards of interest. A Bayesian approach coupled with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to perform statistical inference. An application of the proposed joint model to a study on the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging Initiative is presented.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, joint model, longitudinal data, time-to-event data

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Authors: Brian Romansky

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There are many practical, commercially available robots and semi-autonomous systems that are currently available for use in a wide variety of construction tasks. Adoption of these technologies has the potential to reduce the time and cost to deliver a project, reduce variability and risk in delivery time, increase quality, and improve safety on the job site. These benefits come with a cost for equipment rental or contract fees, access to specialists to configure the system, and time needed for set-up and support of the machines while in use. Calculation of the net ROI (Return on Investment) requires detailed information about the geometry of the site, the volume of work to be done, the overall project schedule, as well as data on the capabilities and past performance of available robotic systems. Assembling the required data and comparing the ROI for several options is complex and tedious. Many project managers will only consider the use of a robot in targeted applications where the benefits are obvious, resulting in low levels of adoption of automation in the construction industry. This work demonstrates how data already resident in many BIM (Building Information Model) projects can be used to automate ROI estimation for a sample set of commercially available construction robots. Calculations account for set-up and operating time along with scheduling support tasks required while the automated technology is in use. Configuration parameters allow for prioritization of time, cost, or safety as the primary benefit of the technology. A path toward integration and use of automatic ROI calculation with a database of available robots in a BIM platform is described.

Keywords: automation, BIM, robot, ROI.

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Authors: Venkat S. Somayajula

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Ground surface temperature history prediction model plays a vital role in determining standards for international nuclear waste management. International standards for borehole based nuclear waste disposal require paleoclimate cycle predictions on scale of a million forward years for the place of waste disposal. This research focuses on developing a paleoclimate cycle prediction model using Bayesian long-short term memory (LSTM) neural architecture operated on accumulated borehole temperature history data. Bayesian models have been previously used for paleoclimate cycle prediction based on Monte-Carlo weight method, but due to limitations pertaining model coupling with certain other prediction networks, Bayesian models in past couldn’t accommodate prediction cycle’s over 1000 years. LSTM has provided frontier to couple developed models with other prediction networks with ease. Paleoclimate cycle developed using this process will be trained on existing borehole data and then will be coupled to surface temperature history prediction networks which give endpoints for backpropagation of LSTM network and optimize the cycle of prediction for larger prediction time scales. Trained LSTM will be tested on past data for validation and then propagated for forward prediction of temperatures at borehole locations. This research will be beneficial for study pertaining to nuclear waste management, anthropological cycle predictions and geophysical features

Keywords: Bayesian long-short term memory neural network, borehole temperature, ground surface temperature history, paleoclimate cycle

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Authors: Sitrapee Changmuenwai, Sudaratana Wongweragiat

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It is important that a dry chemical fire extinguisher must be inspected for its readiness. For each inspection, the inspectors need to turn the fire extinguisher tank upside down to let the chemical inside the tank move and prevent solidification, which would make the tank not ready for usage when needed. Each tank weighs approximately 16 kg. The inspectors have to turn each tank upside down twice (2 minutes/round). They need to put the tanks over their shoulder close to their ear in order to hear the chemical flow inside the tank or use their hands to feel it. The survey and questionnaire 'The Questionnaire Know Body', which includes neck, left shoulder, upper and lower right arms suggest that all 12 security staffs have the same fatigues. The current dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection affects various ergonomic health problems. Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) is used for evaluation of posture risks so that the working postures may be redesigned or corrected. The dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection equipment has been developed to reduce ergonomic health risks for the inspectors. A REBA analysis has been performed again, and the risk score has been decreased from 13 to 3. In addition, feedbacks from the first trial of the developed equipment show that there are demands to increase the installation in order to reduce the ergonomic health risks.

Keywords: dry chemical fire extinguisher inspection equipment, ergonomic, REBA, rapid entire body assessment

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Authors: Girts Zageris, Vadims Geza, Andris Jakovics

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Gasification processes are of great interest due to their generation of renewable energy in the form of syngas from biodegradable waste. It is, therefore, important to study the factors that play a role in the efficiency of gasification and the longevity of the machines in which gasification takes place. This study focuses on the latter, aiming to optimize an entrained-flow gasifier by reducing slag formation on its walls to reduce maintenance costs. A CFD mathematical model for an entrained-flow gasifier is constructed – the model of an actual gasifier is rendered in 3D and appropriately meshed. Then, the turbulent gas flow in the gasifier is modeled with the realizable k-ε approach, taking devolatilization, combustion and coal gasification into account. Various such simulations are conducted, obtaining results for different air inlet positions and by tracking particles of varying sizes undergoing devolatilization and gasification. The model identifies potential problematic zones where most particles collide with the gasifier walls, indicating risk regions where ash deposits could most likely form. In conclusion, the effects on the formation of an ash layer of air inlet positioning and particle size allowed in the main gasifier tank are discussed, and possible solutions for decreasing a number of undesirable deposits are proposed. Additionally, an estimate of the impact of different factors such as temperature, gas properties and gas content, and different forces acting on the particles undergoing gasification is given.

Keywords: biomass particles, gasification, slag formation, turbulence k-ε modelling

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Authors: Cholpassorn Sitthiwarongchai, Chutikarn Sriviboon

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The two primary objectives of this research were (1) to examine the current knowledge and actual circumstance of agricultural workers about mangosteen product processing; and (2) to analyze and evaluate ways to develop capacity of mangosteen product processing. The population of this study was 15,125 people who work in the agricultural sector, in this context, mangosteen production, in the eastern part of Thailand that included Chantaburi Province, Rayong Province, Trad Province and Pracheenburi Province. The sample size based on Yamane’s calculation with 95% reliability was therefore 392 samples. Mixed method was employed included questionnaire and focus group discussion with Connoisseurship Model used in order to collect quantitative and qualitative data. Key informants were used in the focus group including agricultural business owners, academic people in agro food processing, local academics, local community development staff, OTOP subcommittee, and representatives of agro processing industry professional organizations. The study found that the majority of the respondents agreed with a high level (in five-rating scale) towards most of variables of knowledge management in agro food processing. The result of the current knowledge and actual circumstance of agricultural human resource in an arena of mangosteen product processing revealed that mostly, the respondents agreed at a high level to establish 7 variables. The guideline to developing the body of knowledge in order to enhance the capacity of the agricultural workers in mangosteen product processing was delivered in the focus group discussion. The discussion finally contributed to an idea to produce manuals for mangosteen product processing methods, with 4 products chosen: (1) mangosteen soap, (2) mangosteen juice, (3) mangosteen toffee, and (4) mangosteen preserves or jam.

Keywords: capacity enhancement, agricultural workers, mangosteen product processing, marketing management

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Authors: Pornpote Nusen, Manop Kaewmoracharoen

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In recent years, there was an observable shift in fully developed countries from constructing new buildings to modifying existing buildings. The issue was that although an effective instrument like BIM (Building Information Modeling) was well developed for constructing new buildings, it was not widely used to renovate old buildings. BIM was accepted as an effective means to overcome common managerial problems such as project delay, cost overrun, and poor quality of the project life cycle. It was recently introduced in Thailand and rarely used in a renovation project. Today, in Thailand, BIM is mostly used for creating aesthetic 3D models and quantity takeoff purposes, though it can be an effective tool to use as a project management tool in planning and scheduling. Now the governmental sector in Thailand begins to recognize the uses of using BIM to manage a construction project, but the knowledge about the BIM implementation to governmental construction projects is underdeveloped. Further studies need to be conducted to maximize its advantages for the governmental sector. An educational extra large governmental building of 17,000 square-meters was used in this research. It is currently under construction for a two-year renovation project. BIM models of the building for the exterior and interior areas were created for the whole five floors. Then 4D BIM with combination of 3D BIM plus time was created for planning and scheduling. Three focus groups had been done with executive committee, contractors, and officers of the building to discuss the possibility of usage and usefulness of BIM approach over the traditional process. Several aspects were discussed in the positive sides, especially several foreseen problems, such as the inadequate accessibility of ways, the altered ceiling levels, the impractical construction plan created through a traditional approach, and the lack of constructability information. However, for some parties, the cost of BIM implementation was a concern, though, this study believes, its uses outweigh the cost.

Keywords: building information modeling, extra large building, governmental building renovation, project management, renovation, 4D BIM

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Authors: Yash Bingi, Yiqiao Yin

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Reduction of child mortality is an ongoing struggle and a commonly used factor in determining progress in the medical field. The under-5 mortality number is around 5 million around the world, with many of the deaths being preventable. In light of this issue, Cardiotocograms (CTGs) have emerged as a leading tool to determine fetal health. By using ultrasound pulses and reading the responses, CTGs help healthcare professionals assess the overall health of the fetus to determine the risk of child mortality. However, interpreting the results of the CTGs is time-consuming and inefficient, especially in underdeveloped areas where an expert obstetrician is hard to come by. Using a support vector machine (SVM) and oversampling, this paper proposed a model that classifies fetal health with an accuracy of 99.59%. To further explain the CTG measurements, an algorithm based on Randomized Input Sampling for Explanation ((RISE) of Black-box Models was created, called Feature Alteration for explanation of Black Box Models (FAB), and compared the findings to Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME). This allows doctors and medical professionals to classify fetal health with high accuracy and determine which features were most influential in the process.

Keywords: machine learning, fetal health, gradient boosting, support vector machine, Shapley values, local interpretable model agnostic explanations

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Authors: Muhammad G. Salim, Betty J.L. Laglbauer, Sila K. Sari, Irianes C. Gozali, Fahmi, Didik Rudianto, Selvia Oktaviyani, Isabel Ender

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Muncar, East Java, is one of the largest artisanal fisheries in Indonesia. Sharks and rays are caught as both target and bycatch, for local meat consumption and with some derived products exported. Of the seven mobulid ray species occurring in Indonesia, five have been recorded as retained bycatch at Muncar fishing port: the spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular), the bentfin devil ray (Mobula thurstoni), the sicklefin devil ray (Mobula tarapacana), the oceanic manta ray (Mobula birostris) and the reef manta ray (Mobula alfredi). Both manta ray species are listed as Vulnerable by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and are protected in Indonesia despite still being captured as bycatch, while all the three devil ray species mentioned here are listed as Endangered and do not currently benefit from any protection in Indonesian waters. Mobulid landings in East Java are caused primarily by small-scale drift gillnets but they also occasionally occur on longlines and in purse-seines operating off the coast of East Java and occasionally in fishing grounds located as far as the Makassar and Sumba Straits. Landing trends from 2015-2019 (non-continuous surveys) revealed that the highest abundance of mobulid rays at Muncar fishing port occurs during the upwelling season from June-October. During El-Nino or above-average temperature years, this may extend until November (such as in 2015 and 2019). The strong seasonal upwelling along the East Java coast is linked to higher zooplankton abundance (inferred from chlorophyll-a sea-surface concentrations), on which mobulids forage, along with teleost fishes constituting the primary target of gillnet fisheries in the Bali Strait. Mobulid ray landings in Muncar were dominated by Mobula mobular, followed by M. thurstoni, M. tarapacana, M. birostris and M. alfredi, however, the catch varied across years and seasons. A majority of immature individuals were recorded in M. mobular and M. thurstoni, and slight decreases in landings, despite no known changes in fishing effort, were observed across the upwelling seasons of 2015-2018 for M. mobular. While all mobulids are listed on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species, which regulates international trade in gill plates sought after in the Chinese Medicine Trade, local and national-level management measures are required to sustain mobulid populations. The findings presented here provide important baseline data, from which potential management approaches can be identified.

Keywords: devil ray, mobulid, manta ray, Indonesia

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Authors: M. Mikušová

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The main aim of this paper is to present a clear and comprehensive picture of the process of a crisis in the organization which will help to better understand its possible developments. For a description of the sequence of individual steps and an indication of their causation and possible variants of the developments, a detailed flow diagram with verbal comment is applied. For simplicity, the process of the crisis is observed in four basic phases called: symptoms of the crisis, diagnosis, action and prevention. The model highlights the complexity of the phenomenon of the crisis and that the various phases of the crisis are interweaving.

Keywords: crisis, management, model, organization

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Authors: Sachini Wickramanayaka

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The occurrence of natural disasters has increased in an alarming rate in recent times due to escalating effects of climate change. One such natural disaster that has continued to grow in frequency and intensity is ‘flooding’, adversely affecting communities around the globe. This is an exploration on how architecture can intervene and facilitate in preserving communities in the face of disaster, specifically in battling floods. ‘Resilience’ is one of the concepts that have been brought forward to be instilled in vulnerable communities to lower the impact from such disasters as a preventative and coping mechanism. While there are number of ways to achieve resilience in the built environment, this paper aims to create a synthesis between resilience and ‘urban acupuncture’. It will consider strengthening communities from within, by layering a network of relatively small-scale, fast phased interventions on pre-existing conventional flood preventative large-scale engineering infrastructure.By investigating ‘The Woodlands’, a planned neighborhood as a case study, this paper will argue that large-scale water management solutions while extremely important will not suffice as a single solution particularly during a time of frequent and extreme weather events. The different projects will try to synthesize non-architectural aspects such as neighborhood aspirations, requirements, potential and awareness into a network of architectural forms that would collectively increase neighborhood resiliency to floods. A mapping study of the selected study area will identify the problematic areas that flood in the neighborhood while the empirical data from previously implemented case studies will assess the success of each solution.If successful the different solutions for each of the identified problem areas will exhibithow flooding and water management can be integrated as part and parcel of daily life.

Keywords: acupuncture, architecture, resiliency, micro-interventions, neighborhood

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Authors: Justin Woulfe

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Siloed logistics and supply chain management systems throughout the Department of Defense (DOD) has led to disparate approaches to modeling and simulation (M&S), a lack of understanding of how one system impacts the whole, and issues with “optimal” solutions that are good for one organization but have dramatic negative impacts on another. Many different systems have evolved to try to understand and account for uncertainty and try to reduce the consequences of the unknown. As the DoD undertakes expansive digital transformation initiatives, there is an opportunity to fuse and leverage traditionally disparate data into a centrally hosted source of truth. With a streamlined process incorporating machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), advanced M&S will enable informed decisions guiding program success via optimized operational readiness and improved mission success. One of the current challenges is to leverage the terabytes of data generated by monitored systems to provide actionable information for all levels of users. The implementation of a cloud-based application analyzing data transactions, learning and predicting future states from current and past states in real-time, and communicating those anticipated states is an appropriate solution for the purposes of reduced latency and improved confidence in decisions. Decisions made from an ML and AI application combined with advanced optimization algorithms will improve the mission success and performance of systems, which will improve the overall cost and effectiveness of any program. The Systecon team constructs and employs model-based simulations, cutting across traditional silos of data, aggregating maintenance, and supply data, incorporating sensor information, and applying optimization and simulation methods to an as-maintained digital twin with the ability to aggregate results across a system’s lifecycle and across logical and operational groupings of systems. This coupling of data throughout the enterprise enables tactical, operational, and strategic decision support, detachable and deployable logistics services, and configuration-based automated distribution of digital technical and product data to enhance supply and logistics operations. As a complete solution, this approach significantly reduces program risk by allowing flexible configuration of data, data relationships, business process workflows, and early test and evaluation, especially budget trade-off analyses. A true capability to tie resources (dollars) to weapon system readiness in alignment with the real-world scenarios a warfighter may experience has been an objective yet to be realized to date. By developing and solidifying an organic capability to directly relate dollars to readiness and to inform the digital twin, the decision-maker is now empowered through valuable insight and traceability. This type of educated decision-making provides an advantage over the adversaries who struggle with maintaining system readiness at an affordable cost. The M&S capability developed allows program managers to independently evaluate system design and support decisions by quantifying their impact on operational availability and operations and support cost resulting in the ability to simultaneously optimize readiness and cost. This will allow the stakeholders to make data-driven decisions when trading cost and readiness throughout the life of the program. Finally, sponsors are available to validate product deliverables with efficiency and much higher accuracy than in previous years.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, digital transformation, machine learning, predictive analytics

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Authors: Marzia Bilkiss, Muhammad J. A. Shiddiky, Mostafa K. Masud, Prabhakaran Sambasivam, Ido Bar, Jeremy Brownlie, Rebecca Ford

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A greater achievement in the Integrated Disease Management (IDM) to prevent the loss would result from early diagnosis and quantitation of the causal pathogen species for accurate and timely disease control. This could significantly reduce costs to the growers and reduce any flow on impacts to the environment from excessive chemical spraying. Necrotrophic fungal disease botrytis grey mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae, significantly reduce temperate legume yield and grain quality during favourable environmental condition in Australia and worldwide. Several immunogenic and molecular probe-type protocols have been developed for their diagnosis, but these have varying levels of species-specificity, sensitivity, and consequent usefulness within the paddock. To substantially improve speed, accuracy, and sensitivity, advanced nanoparticle-based biosensor approaches have been developed. For this, two sets of primers were designed for both Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae which have shown the species specificity with initial sensitivity of two genomic copies/µl in pure fungal backgrounds using multiplexed quantitative PCR. During further validation, quantitative PCR detected 100 spores on artificially infected legume leaves. Simultaneously an electro-catalytic assay was developed for both target fungal DNA using functionalised magnetic nanoparticles. This was extremely sensitive, able to detect a single spore within a raw total plant nucleic acid extract background. We believe that the translation of this technology to the field will enable quantitative assessment of pathogen load for future accurate decision support of informed botrytis grey mould management.

Keywords: biosensor, botrytis grey mould, sensitive, species specific

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Authors: Mumtaz Ahmed Sohag, Ishaq Ahmed Sohag

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Kebbi State, located in the Nort-West of Nigeria, is rich in water resources as the major rivers viz. Niger and Rima irrigate a vast majority of land. Besides, there is significant amount of groundwater, which farmers use for agriculture purpose. The groundwater is also a major source of agricultural and domestic water as wells are installed in almost all parts of the region. Although Kebbi State is rich in water, however, there are some pertinent issues which are hampering its agricultural productivity. The low lands (locally called Fadama), has spread out to a vast area. It is inundated every year during the rainy season which lasts from June to September every year. The farmers grow rice during the rainy season when water is standing. They cannot do further agricultural activity for almost two months due to high standing water. This has resulted in widespread waterlogging problem. Besides, the impact of climate change is resulting in rapid variation in river/stream flows. The information about water bodies regarding the availability of water for agricultural and other uses and the behavior of rivers at different flows is seldom available. Furthermore, sediment load (suspended and bedload) is not measured due to which land erosion cannot be countered effectively. This study, carried out in seven different irrigation regions of Kebbi state, found that diversion structures need to be constructed at some strategic locations for the supply of surface water to the farmers. The water table needs to be lowered through an effective drainage system. The monitoring of water bodies is crucial for sound data to help efficient regulation and management of water. Construction of embankments is necessary to control frequent floods in the rivers of Niger and Rima. Furthermore, farmers need capacity and awareness for participatory irrigation management.

Keywords: water bodies, floods, agriculture, waterlogging

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Authors: Maulita Sari Hani, Abraham B. Sianipar, Jamaluddin Jompa, Natsir Nessa, Alan T. White

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Manta ray is an icon for tourism in Raja Ampat. The tourist volume has been increased for the past ten years which up to approximately 23,000 tourists in 2017. Since 2013, Conservation International Indonesia deployed satellite and acoustic tags on manta ray in Dampier strait to track the species and identify the aggregation areas. These findings encourage the government and the local community to boost conservation through the management of marine protected areas for tourism purposes. Community in Dampier strait including the village of Arborek, Kurkapa, Kapisawar, and Sawingray involved in variety of small scale tourism business including homestay, dive shop, tour operator, and crafts. Working groups of related local businesses were established to support the local community and to ensure the sustainability of the economic viability and environmental sustainability. In order to analyze the economic benefits of manta ray tourism, this study was conducted to identify the number of local business in Dampier Strait and the economic impacts in terms of local finance security, social, humanity, individual, and physical assets. The results of this study identify 30 homestays, 2 dive shops, 10 tour operators, 30 women involved in crafts, and about 50 villagers worked for dive resorts. In addition to community assets, we confirmed the welfare of community has been improved in terms of food security, households, education for children, savings, and health insurance.

Keywords: marine wildlife tourism, elasmobranch, conservation, ecotourism, co-management, economic viability, environmental sustainability

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Authors: Mohamed Djalil Zaafour, Samir Chekchaki, Mohamed Benslama

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The Landfill of El Matrouha is located in El-Tarf town (extreme north east of Algeria), the Landfill is present as a gigantic wild dump. This waste dump occupies an area of over four hectares, tons of rubbish that is sent daily are scattered over kilometers, reaching farmland located west of the town, the landfill is close to a temporary Oued, which supply Oued Guergour the last tributary Oued El Kebir. The landfills are causing serious environmental damage, following the infiltration of leachates, which contribute to the degradation of water quality, in the context of this problem, the purpose of the work is focused on assessing the impact of this landfill on Oued El-Kebir, for this a series of sampling and analysis of the soil and water of this Oued was performed; The results show that the soil collected reveal the sandy texture facilitating infiltration and percolation of leachate from the landfill; the physicochemical analysis of the quality of the river water reveals high levels of sulfates in fact this element is one of the essential constituents of the mineral fraction of the waste presenting a risk of pollution by this element, The recorded values for nutrients are sub-standard, for trace elements analysis shows very low metal load on the river except for lead, which is present at high concentrations exceeding all standard.

Keywords: Algeria, landfill, leachates, Oued El-kebir

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Authors: Naila Tallas Mahajna, Jamal Al Khateeb

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This study examined the level of social communication problems, social anxiety, and mood problems among children with ASD (age 6-13 years) enrolled in special classes (n=46) and regular classes (n=36) from teachers' perspective in the schools of a part of Palestine. Teachers responded to three questionnaires - social communication problems, social anxiety and mood problems- that were used to answer the research questions. Results: social communication problems, social anxiety and mood problems were of medium rates for students with ASD enrolled in reguler and special classes. No significant differences in the level of social communication problems could be attributed to class type (Regular, Special) or the grade level-(1st – 3rd, 4th - 6th). There were significant differences in social anxiety levels that could be attributed to grade level in favor of the 4th - 6th grades but there were no significant differences according to class type (Regular, Special). There were statistically significant differences in mood problems levels that could be attributed to the class type in favor of special classes, but no differences were found according to grade level. There was a direct significant relationship between communication problems, social anxiety, and mood problems. Conclusion: social communication problems may be an important risk factor for the development of social anxiety and mood problems among students with ASD.

Keywords: social communication problems, social anxiety, mood problems, autism spectrum disorders

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Authors: Somayeh Abedian, Pirhossein Kolivand, Hamid Reza Lornejad, Amin Karampour, Ebrahim Keshavarz Safari

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For emergency and relief service providers such as pre-hospital emergencies, quick arrival at the scene of an accident or any EMS mission is one of the most important requirements of effective service delivery. Response time (the interval between the time of the call and the time of arrival on scene) is a critical factor in determining the quality of pre-hospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS). This is especially important for heart attack, stroke, or accident patients. Location-based e-services can be broadly defined as any service that provides information pertinent to the current location of an active mobile handset or precise address of landline phone call at a specific time window, regardless of the underlying delivery technology used to convey the information. According to research, one of the effective methods of meeting this goal is determining the location of the caller via the cooperation of landline and mobile phone operators in the country. The follow-up of the Communications Regulatory Authority (CRA) organization has resulted in the receipt of two separate secured electronic web services. Thus, to ensure human privacy, a secure technical architecture was required for launching the services in the pre-hospital EMS information management system. In addition, to quicken medics’ arrival at the patient's bedside, rescue vehicles should make use of an intelligent transportation system to estimate road traffic using a GPS-based mobile navigation system independent of the Internet. This paper seeks to illustrate the architecture of the practical national model used by the Iranian EMS organization.

Keywords: response time, geographic location inquiry service (GLIS), location-based service (LBS), emergency medical services information system (EMSIS)

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Authors: Alexis Akinyemi, Laurene Houtin

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Measures of employee motivation at work are often based on the theory of self-determined motivation, which implies that human resources departments and managers seek to motivate employees in the most self-determined way possible and use strategies to achieve this goal. In practice, they often tend to assess employee motivation and then adapt management to the most important source of motivation for their employees, for example by financially rewarding an employee who is extrinsically motivated, and by rewarding an intrinsically motivated employee with congratulations and recognition. Thus, the use of motivation measures contradicts theoretical positioning: theory does not provide for the promotion of extrinsically motivated behaviour. In addition, a corpus of social psychology linked to fundamental needs makes it possible to personally address a person’s different sources of motivation (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects and need for closure). By developing a composite measure of motivation based on these needs, we provide human resources professionals, and in particular occupational psychologists, with a tool that complements the assessment of self-determined motivation, making it possible to precisely address the objective of adapting work not to the self-determination of behaviours, but to the motivational traits of employees. To develop such a model, we gathered the French versions of the cognitive needs scales (need for cognition, need for uniqueness, need for effects, need for closure) and conducted a study with 645 employees of several French companies. On the basis of the data collected, we conducted a confirmatory factor analysis to validate the model, studied the correlations between the various needs, and highlighted the different reference groups that could be used to use these needs as a basis for interviews with employees (career, recruitment, etc.). The results showed a coherent model and the expected links between the different needs. Taken together, these results make it possible to propose a valid and theoretically adjusted tool to managers who wish to adapt their management to their employees’ current motivations, whether or not these motivations are self-determined.

Keywords: motivation, personality, work commitment, cognitive needs

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Authors: Rudy C. Flores, Felicisima E. Tungol, Armando A. Villafuerte, Abraham S. Antonio, Roy N. Oroyo, Henry A. Cruz

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An assessment of the biosecurity strategies of selected fishponds in Bataan was conducted by the researchers from Bataan Peninsula State University Orani Campus to determine the present status of Biosecurity strategies being practice by selected freshwater and brackish water fishpond operators in the province to have an initial data of their system of safeguarding cultured fishes against possible diseases. Likewise, it aims to evaluate the extent of implementation of the following areas of Biosecurity namely; fishpond location, perimeter, entrance, building/ pond structure, shipping, new stocks, feeds, dead stocks, soil and water treatment, disinfection and vaccination program. The results of the assessment revealed that the present average status of the surveyed fish ponds in Bataan based on the data gathered from selected fishpond operators is poor for 44.64% and fair for 12.61%, which means that more than one- half of the surveyed fishpond do not have the first and second line of defense against diseases and there is always a higher risk of infection, contamination and possibility of disease outbreak. This indicates that fishpond operators in Bataan need technological interventions to improve their harvest and prevent heavy losses from fish diseases, although biosecurity is satisfactory for 12.92% and very good for 9.16%, which indicate that 22.08% of the surveyed fishponds have their own strategies to keep their stocks from diseases.

Keywords: biosecurity, fishpond operators, soil and water treatment, filtration system, bird scaring devices

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Authors: Sujen Man Shrestha, Kanchan Thapa, Tista Prasai Joshi

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Background: The present study was carried out to determine suspended particles and respirable particles of diameter less than 1 micrometers (PM1) on road side and some distance of outside from road; and to compare the respiratory symptoms between traffic police men and shop keepers directly 'exposed' to traffic fumes and office worker stay in 'protected' enclosed environment. Methods: Semi structured questionnaire was used to collect the data among case and control after getting verbal informed consent among the convenience sample of traffic police, shopkeepers and officials in three different locations in Kathmandu. Secondary data analysis of hospital data of three hospitals of Kathmandu was also performed. The data on air Particulate Matter was taken by Haz Dust. Results: The result showed air quality of road side traffic is unhealthy and there was increasing trends of respiratory illness in hospital outpatient department (OPD). The people who were exposed found to have more risk of developing respiratory diseases symptoms. Conclusions: The study concluded that air pollution level is strong contributing factor for respiratory diseases and further recommended strong, epidemiological studies with larger sample size, less bias, and also measuring other significant physical and chemicals parameters of air pollution.

Keywords: heavy traffic cities, Kathmandu, particulate pollution, respiratory symptoms

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Authors: Flora Tajiki

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Infertility is a pervasive issue affecting women globally, profoundly impacting their psychological well-being and quality of life. This case study traces the six-year journey of a 35-year-old Iranian woman who married at 29 and grappled with infertility and premature menopause. Three years post-marriage, her initial pregnancy resulted in a miscarriage, followed by a year without successful conception. Diagnostic evaluations revealed small ovaries and a low AMH level of 0.19, leading to a diagnosis of premature menopause. Despite her primary therapist's recommendation to use a donated egg, she opted to pursue a comprehensive lifestyle modification approach through remote consultation with the author. The regimen encompassed regular physical activity, weight management, stress control, sleep regulation, meditation, abdominal massages, diaphragmatic breathing, and dietary changes toward a high-protein, low-carbohydrate diet. The recommended diet included nuts such as almonds and pistachios, as well as sprouted grains like wheat and mung beans. She was further advised to maintain adequate hydration and eliminate sugar, milk, preservatives, and processed foods. Regular follow-ups were conducted. Approximately three months into the regimen, the lifestyle overhaul led to a weight reduction from 99 kg to 89 kg and improved stress management. Remarkably, despite a continued decrease in AMH levels, she conceived naturally four months after adopting these lifestyle changes and is now the mother of a healthy 10-month-old girl. Similar cases under this healthy lifestyle approach, despite having low AMH levels, also resulted in successful pregnancies without IVF or hormone therapy. This underscores that AMH levels are not the sole determinant of fertility and that lifestyle modifications can play a significant role in overcoming infertility and achieving natural conception.

Keywords: egg donation, infertility, lifestyle Modification, natural conception, premature menopause

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Authors: Achim Kampker, Heiner Hans Heimes, Mathias Ordung, Jan-Philip Ganser

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In the past years, the automotive industry has changed significantly. Innovative mobility concepts have become more important, and electric vehicles see a chance of replacing vehicles with combustion engines in the long term. However, the coming years will be characterized by coexistence. In this context, there are two possible production scenarios: One the one hand, electric vehicles could be manufactured in bespoke assembly lines. Concerning the uncertainty regarding sales figures development, this alternative boasts a high investment risk. Therefore, an integrated assembly building upon existing structures also seems a feasible solution. This empirical study aims at validating hypotheses concerning theoretical and practical challenges of the integrated production in the final assembly. In order to take a test of approaches of the research by analyzing censored feedback of professionals, these hypotheses are validated in the framework of an expert study. For this purpose, hypotheses have been generated on the basis of a requirements analysis and a concept specification. Thereupon, a list of question has been implemented and deduced from the hypotheses to execute an online- and written-survey and interviews with professionals. The interpretation and evaluation of the findings includes an inter-component comparison for the electric drivetrain. Furthermore, key drivers for a sufficient integrated product and process design are presented.

Keywords: automotive industry, final assembly, integrated manufacturing, product and process development

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Authors: Avadhoot Bhosale, Robin Davis P., Pradip Sarkar

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The seismic performance of buildings with irregular distribution of mass, stiffness and strength along the height may be significantly different from that of regular buildings with masonry infill. Masonry infilled reinforced concrete (RC) frames are very common structural forms used for multi-storey building construction. These structures are found to perform better in past earthquakes owing to additional strength, stiffness and energy dissipation in the infill walls. The seismic performance of a building depends on the variation of material, structural and geometrical properties. The sensitivity of these properties affects the seismic response of the building. The main objective of the sensitivity analysis is to found out the most sensitive parameter that affects the response of the building. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis by considering 5% and 95% probability value of random variable in the infills characteristics, trying to obtain a reasonable range of results representing a wide number of possible situations that can be met in practice by using pushover analysis. The results show that the strength-related variation values of concrete and masonry, with the exception of tensile strength of the concrete, have shown a significant effect on the structural performance and that this effect increases with the progress of damage condition for the concrete. The seismic risk assessments of the selected frames are expressed in terms of reliability index.

Keywords: fragility curve, sensitivity analysis, reliability index, RC frames

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Authors: Yu-Chieh Huang, Pei-Shih Chen, Tao-Hsin Tung

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Background: Urinary tract infection is the most common bacterial infection to our best knowledge. Objective: This study is to investigate whether cranberry ingesting could improve the urinary tract infection. Methods: We searched the PubMed and Cochrane Library for relevant randomized controlled trials without language limitations between 9 March 1994 and June 30, 2017, with a priori defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The search terms included (cranberry OR Vaccinium macrocarpon OR Vaccinium oxy-coccus OR Vaccinium microcarpum OR Vaccinium erythrocarpum OR Vaccinium) AND (urinary tract infection OR bacteriuria OR pyuria) AND (effect OR effective-ness OR efficacy) AND (random OR randomized). Results: There were 26 studies met the selection criteria included among 4709 eligible participants. We analyzed all trials in meta-analysis. The random-effects pooled risk ratio (RR) for the group using cranberry versus using placebo was 0.75; 95%CI[0.63, 0.880]; p-value=0.0002) and heterogeneity was 56%. Furthermore, we divided the subjects into different subgroup to analysis. Ingesting cranberry seemed to be more effective in some subgroups, including the patients with recurrent UTI (RR, 0.71; 95%CI[0.54,0.93]; p-value=0.002) (I²= 65%) and female population (RR, 0.73, 95%CI[0.58,0.92]; p-value=0.002) (I²= 59%). The prevention effect was not different between cranberry and trimethoprim (RR, 1.25, 95%CI[0.67, 2.33]; p-value=0.49) (I²= 68%). No matter the forms of cranberry were capsules or juice, the efficacy was useful. Conclusions: It is showed that cranberry ingesting is usefully associated with prevention UTI. There are more effective in prevention of UTI in some groups.

Keywords: cranberry, effectiveness, prevention, urinary tract infect

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Authors: Susan Lanz, Gary T. Burke, Omid Omidvar

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The intention to transfer ownership control across family generations is acknowledged to be central to developing a theoretical understanding of how family businesses differ and are distinct as a business group. However, in practice, most business-owning families face challenges to transfer their business ownership from one family generation to the next. To date, researchers have paid little attention to how and when ownership is passed across family generations and what the dynamics of such transitions are. This is primarily due to the prevailing assumption that ownership transfer is an unimportant and legalistic issue that occurs within a wider family management succession process. Yet, the limited evidence available suggests that family ownership transfer occurs inside and outside of the management succession process and is a difficult process for business-owning families to navigate. As a result, many otherwise viable family businesses are closing, leading to unnecessary loss of jobs and knowledge. This qualitative paper examines how family members understand and navigate the ownership transfer process. This study uses an inductive qualitative research design, conducted through in-depth interviews within eight business-owning families. It draws on family development theory and shows how a wide range of family-related events and dynamics outside of family business involvement underlie and shape the ownership transfer process. The findings extend the theory on how these events trigger ownership transfer and how they shape the ownership meanings held within business-owning families. This study found that ownership transfer meanings extend beyond that of transferring the legal control and financial appropriation rights of shareholders. The study concludes there are three different stages in the process of ownership transfer -symbolic, re-balancing, and protectionist. Each stage creates distinct family social constructions of the rights of family members to hold business ownership, and each stage occurs within a specific family development phase.

Keywords: business-owning family, family development theory, ownership transfer, process

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