Search results for: cultural complex

Authors: Peter Ecke

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This research presents insights from a questionnaire study and autobiographic narrative analyses about the language and cultural backgrounds, challenges, interests, and needs, as well as perceptions about bilingualism and language learning of undergraduate students at a Public University in the southwestern United States. Participants were 650 students, enrolled in college-level general education courses, entitled “Becoming multilingual: Learning and maintaining two or more languages” between 2020 and 2024. Data were collected via pre- and post-course questionnaires administered online through the Qualtrix XM platform and complemented with analyses of excerpts from autobiographical narratives that students produced as part of the course assignments. Findings, for example, show that course participants have diverse linguistic backgrounds. The five most frequently reported L1s were English (about 50% of course participants), Spanish, Arabic, Mandarin, and Korean (in that order). The five most frequently reported L2s were English, Spanish, French, ASL, Japanese, German, and Mandarin (in that order). Participants also reported on their L2, L3, L4, and L5 if applicable. Most participants (over 60%) rated themselves bilingual or multilingual whereas 40% considered themselves to be monolingual or foreign language learners. Only about half of the participants reported feeling very or somewhat comfortable with their language skills, but these reports changed somewhat from the pre- to the post-course survey. About half of participants were mostly interested in learning how to effectively learn a foreign language. The other half of participants reported being most curious about learning about themselves as bi/multilinguals, (re)learning a language used in childhood, learning how to bring up a child as a bi/multilingual or learning about people who speak multiple languages (distributed about evenly). Participants’ comments about advantages and disadvantages of being bilingual remained relatively stable but their agreement with common myths about bilingualism and language learning changed from the pre- to the post-course survey. Students’ reflections in the autobiographical narratives and comments in (institutionally administered) anonymous course evaluations provided additional data on students’ concerns about their current language skills and uses as well as their perceptions about learning outcomes and the usefulness of the general education course for their current and future lives. It is hoped that the presented findings and discussion will spark interest among colleagues in offering similar courses as a resource for college students (and possibly other audiences), including those from migrant, indigenous, multilingual, and multicultural communities to contribute to a more harmonious bilingualism and well-being of college students who are or inspire to become bi-or multilingual.

Keywords: autobiographic narratives, general education university course, harmonious bilingualism and well-being, multilingualism, questionnaire study

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Authors: Islam Nowisser, Noha Farag, Mohamed El Azizi

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Helicobacter pylori is a highly important human pathogen which inhabits about 50% of the population worldwide. Infection with this bacteria is very hard to treat, with high probability of recurrence. H. pylori causes severe gastric diseases, including peptic ulcer, gastritis, and gastric cancer, which has been linked to chronic inflammation. The infection has been reported to be associated with high levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, especially IL-1β and TNF-α. The aim of the current study is to investigate the molecular mechanisms by which H. pylori activates NLRP3 inflammasome and its contribution to Il-1 β production in an innate cellular model. H. pylori PMSS1 and G27 standard strains, as well as the PMSS1 isogenic mutant strain PMSS1ΔVacA and G27ΔVacA, G27ΔCagA in addition to clinical isolates obtained from biopsy samples from the antrum and corpus mucosa of chronic gastritis patients, were used to establish infection in RAW-264.7 macrophages. The production levels of TNF-α and IL-1β was assessed using ELISA. Since expression of these cytokines is often regulated by the transcription factor complex, nuclear factor-kB (NF-kB), the activation of NF-κB in H. pylori infected cells was also evaluated by luciferase assay. Genomic DNA was extracted from bacterial cultures of H. pylori clinical isolates as well as the standard strains and their corresponding mutants, where they were evaluated for the cagA pathogenicity island and vacA expression. The correlation between these findings and expression of the cagA Pathogenicity Island and vacA in the bacteria was also investigated. The results showed IL-1β, and TNF-α production significantly increased in raw macrophages following H. pylori infection. The cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains induced significant production of IL-1β compared to cagA- and vacA- strains. The activation pattern of NF-κB was correlated in the isolates to their cagA and vacA expression profiles. A similar finding could not be confirmed for TNF-α production. Our study shows the ability of H. pylori to activate NF-kB and induce significant IL-1β production as a possible mechanism for the augmented inflammatory response seen in subjects infected with cagA+ and vacA+ H. pylori strains that would lead to the progression to more severe form of the disease.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, IL-1β, inflammatory cytokines, nuclear factor KB, TNF-α

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Authors: S. Probine

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The visual arts have been proven to be a central means through which young children can communicate their ideas, reflect on experience, and construct new knowledge. Despite this, perceptions of, and the degree to which the visual arts are valued within education, vary widely within political, educational, community and family contexts. These differing perceptions informed my doctoral research project, which explored the contextual factors that affect how young children come to value and use the visual arts in their lives and learning. The qualitative methodology of narrative inquiry with inclusion of arts-based methods was most appropriate for this inquiry. Using a sociocultural framework, the stories collected were analysed through the sociocultural theories of Lev Vygotsky as well as the work of Urie Bronfenbrenner, together with postmodern theories about identity formation. The use of arts-based methods such as teacher’s reflective art journals and the collection of images by child participants and their parent/caregivers allowed the research participants to have a significant role in the research. Three early childhood settings at which the visual arts were deeply valued as a meaning-making device in children’s learning, were purposively selected to be involved in the research. At each setting, the study found a unique and complex web of influences and interconnections, which shaped how children utilised the visual arts to mediate their thinking. Although the teachers' practices at all three centres were influenced by sociocultural theories, each settings' interpretations of these theories were unique and resulted in innovative interpretations of the role of the teacher in supporting visual arts learning. These practices had a significant impact on children’s experiences of the visual arts. For many of the children involved in this study, visual art was the primary means through which they learned. The children in this study used visual art to represent their experiences, relationships, to explore working theories, their interests (including those related to popular culture), to make sense of their own and other cultures, and to enrich their imaginative play. This research demonstrates that teachers have fundamental roles in fostering and disseminating the importance of the visual arts within their educational communities.

Keywords: arts-based methods, early childhood education, teacher's visual arts pedagogies, visual arts

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Authors: Lydia Booney Jyrwa, Rabindra Nath Bhuyan

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Chocolate Mahseer (Neolissochilus hexagonolepis) is one of the Mahseer species inhabiting the North-eastern region of India and is a native species to the state of Meghalaya since it can adapt and grow well under the agro climatic conditions of the region. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The natural population of this fish has been declining over the years from this part of the country. The fish is considered as one of the endangered species of the Mahseer group, which is having tremendous scope for culture, sports and tourism. But non-availability of quality seed is a hindrance for the culture of this fish. Thus induced breeding of the fish by hormonal administration with pituitary gland and synthetic hormones is the only reliable method to procure the pure seed of the fish. Chocolate Mahseer was successfully bred at the Hatchery Complex, St. Anthony’s College, Shillong, Meghalaya by using pituitary extract and synthetic hormone viz. ovaprim, ovatide and gonopro-FH. The dose standardized is @ 4mg/kg body weight to both male and female as 1st dose and @ 7.9 mg/kg body weight only to female as 2nd dose for pituitary extract and single dose @ 0.8 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of both ovaprim and ovatide, while a single dose @ 0.9 ml/kg body weight to female and @ 0.3 ml/kg body weight to male of gonopro-FH. The doses are standardized after a series of trial and error experiment performed. The fecundity of the fish was 3500 eggs/ kg body weight. The final hatching percentage achieved was 60%. The survival rate of hatchling was 50% up to fry stage. The use of synthetic hormone and positive response of the fish to the hormone will go in long way for production of quality seed of the fish which in turn help in culture of the species as the fish can be a very good candidate species for the culture in the state. This study will also help in the ranching of the fish in the natural habitat leading to conservation of the species. However, the study should be continued further for the large scale production of seeds.

Keywords: chocolate mahseer, induced breeding, pituitary extract, synthetic hormone

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Authors: Friday I. Joseph

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Background: Nigeria has an under-five mortality rate that is 128 per 1000 live birth which is higher than the rate for the African region. Optimal breastfeeding practice has the potential to reduce under-five mortality by 13% in developing countries. However, documented exclusive breastfeeding rate in Nigeria from birth to six months is just 17%. Aim: To explore perceptions of the sociocultural factors that influence exclusive breastfeeding for six months among rural mothers in Bindawa and Baure Local Government Area (LGA), Katsina state, North West Nigeria, to inform policies, intervention or strategies to improve exclusive breastfeeding practice in Nigeria. Methods: The social constructionism-interpretivist epistemological approach informed the use of an exploratory study to understand mothers’ experiences and views. Twenty mothers, all from rural areas between 19-35 years old were conveniently sampled from two LGA in Katsina state, north –west Nigeria for semi-structured interviews. Sample size had representation of both Hausa and Fulani ethnic group. Thematic content analysis was utilized for analysis. Results: Three major themes emerged from the study: (1) Breastfeeding initiation - Immediate traditional newborn care practices, birth attendant, place of delivery, the perception of about colostrum determines how soon a mother initiate breastfeeding. (2) Exclusive breastfeeding and introduction of food-Motivation to sustain exclusive breastfeeding relies on the interplay between the obligation to perform traditional rites; mother’s awareness and family support. (3) Decision making about infant feeding – It is not independent of the influence of key social figures like the father, mother-in-law, traditional birth attendant and the health workers. Overall, in spite of awareness of exclusive breastfeeding benefits, mothers expressed concerns that they may not win their family support if they shared contrary views. Conclusions: Health promotion intervention should be tailored, taking cognizant and addressing the sociocultural barriers to the practice of optimal breastfeeding by a focused community and family-based participatory approach. Implementers of interventions should employ culture-sensitive approaches in community-based intervention.

Keywords: exclusive breastfeeding, perception, qualitative, sociocultural determinants

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Authors: A. Ham, A. Kuckert-Wostheinrich

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Demographic changes, like the ageing population in European countries and shortage of nursing staff, the increasing number of people with severe cognitive impairment, and elderly socially isolated people raise important questions about who will provide long-term care for ageing citizens. Due to the so-called refugee crisis in 2015, some health care institutions for ageing citizens in Europe invited first generation immigrants to start a nursing career and providing them language skills, nursing training, and internships. The aim of this ethnographic research was to explore the social processes affecting workforce integration and how newcomers enact good care in ageing citizens in a German nursing home. By ethnographic fieldwork, 200 hours of participant observations, 25 in-depth interviews with immigrants and established staff, 2 focus groups with 6 immigrants, and 6 established staff members, data were analysed. The health care institution provided the newcomers a nursing program on psychogeriatric theory and nursing skills in the psychogeriatric field and professional oriented language skills. Courses of health prevention and theater plays accompanied the training. The knowledge learned in education could be applied in internships on the wards. Additionally, diversity and inclusivity courses were given to established personal for cultural awareness and sensitivity. They learned to develop a collegial attitude of respect and appreciation, regardless of gender, nationality, ethnicity, religion or belief, age sexual orientation, or disability and identity. The qualitative data has shown that social processes affected workforce integration, like organizational constraints, staff shortages, and a demanding workload. However, zooming in on the interactions between newcomers and residents, we noticed how they tinkered to enact good care by embodied caring, playing games, singing and dancing. By situational acting and practical wisdom in nursing care, the newcomers could meet the needs of ageing residents. Thus, when health care institutions open up nursing programs for newcomers with refugees’ backgrounds and focus on talent instead of shortcomings, we might as well stimulate the unknown competencies, attitudes, skills, and expertise of newcomers and create excellent nurses for excellent care.

Keywords: established staff, Germany, nursing, refugees

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Authors: Keith D. Nare, Mohau J. Phiri, James Carson, Chris D. Woolard, Shanganyane P. Hlangothi

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In an energy-intensive world, minimizing energy consumption is paramount to cost saving and reducing the carbon footprint. Improving mixture procedures utilizing warm mix additive Fischer-Tropsch (FT) wax in ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and modified bitumen highlights a greener and sustainable approach to modified bitumen. In this study, the impact of FT wax on optimized EVA/waste crumb rubber modified bitumen is assayed with a maximum loading of 2.5%. The rationale of the FT wax loading is to maintain the original maximum loading of EVA in the optimized mixture. The phase change abilities of FT wax enable EVA co-crystallization with the support of the elastomeric backbone of crumb rubber. Less than 1% loading of FT wax worked in the EVA/crumb rubber modified bitumen energy-sustainability nexus. Response surface methodology approach to the mixture design is implemented amongst the different loadings of FT wax, EVA for a consistent amount of crumb rubber and bitumen. Rheological parameters (complex shear modulus, phase angle and rutting parameter) were the factors used as performance indicators of the different optimized mixtures. The low temperature chemistry of the optimized mixtures is analyzed using elementary beam theory and the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. Master curves and black space diagrams are developed and used to predict age-induced cracking of the different long term aged mixtures. Modified binder rheology reveals that the strain response is not linear and that there is substantial re-arrangement of polymer chains as stress is increased, this is based on the age state of the mixture and the FT wax and EVA loadings. Dominance of individual effects is evident over effects of synergy in co-interaction of EVA and FT wax. All-inclusive FT wax and EVA formulations were best optimized in mixture 4 with mixture 7 reflecting increase in ease of workability. Findings show that interaction chemistry of bitumen, crumb rubber EVA, and FT wax is first and second order in all cases involving individual contributions and co-interaction amongst the components of the mixture.

Keywords: bitumen, crumb rubber, ethylene vinyl acetate, FT wax

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Authors: Violina Angelova, Galina Pevicharova

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A comparative research had been carried out to allow us to determine the quantities and the centers of accumulation of Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd in the vegetative and reproductive organs of the sweet potatoes and to ascertain the possibilities for growing them on soils, polluted with heavy metals. The experiments were performed on agricultural fields contaminated by the (1) Non-Ferrous-Metal Works near Plovdiv, (2) Lead and Zinc Complex near Kardjali and (3) a copper smelter near Pirdop, Bulgaria. The soils used in this experiment were characterized by acid, neutral and slightly alkaline reaction, loamy texture and a moderate content of organic matter. The total content of Zn, Pb, and Cd was high and exceeded the limit value in agriculture soils. Sweet potatoes were in a 2-year rotation scheme on three blocks in the experimental field. On reaching commercial ripeness the sweet potatoes were gathered and the contents of heavy metals in their different parts – root, tuber (peel and core), leaves and stems, were determined after microwave mineralization. The quantitative measurements were carried out with inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy. The contamination of the sweet potatoes was due mainly to the presence of heavy metals in the soil, which entered the plants through their root system, as well as by diffusion through the peel. Pb, Cu, Zn, and Cd were selectively accumulated in the underground parts of the sweet potatoes, and most of all in the root system and the peel. Heavy metals have an impact on the development and productivity of the sweet potatoes. The high anthropogenic contamination leads to an increased assimilation of heavy metals which reduces the yield and the quality of the production of sweet potatoes, as well as leads to decrease of the absolute dry substance and the quantity of sugars in sweet potatoes. Sweet potatoes could be grown on soils, which are light to medium polluted with lead, zinc, and cadmium, as they do not accumulate these elements. On heavily polluted soils, however, (Pb – 1504 mg/kg, Zn – 3322 mg/kg, Cd – 47 mg/kg) the growing of sweet potatoes is not allowed, as the accumulation of Pb and Cd in the core of the potatoes exceeds the Maximum Acceptable Concentration. Acknowledgment: The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the Bulgarian National Science Fund (Project DFNI DH04/9).

Keywords: heavy metals, polluted soils, sweet potatoes, uptake

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Authors: Mballa Abanda Luc Aurelien Serge, Henda Gnakate Biba, Kuate Guemo Romaric, Akono Rufine Nicole, Zabotom Yaya Fadel Biba, Petfiang Sidonie, Bella Suzane Jenifer

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The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original, and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological, and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation, and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation, and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal, and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization, I designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application that translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music, and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). The translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech, and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz, and world music or variety, etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: language, music, sciences, quantum entenglement

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Authors: Kalangi Rodrigo

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Sri Lanka has been known as an island which has a diverse variety of prehistoric occupation among ecological zones. Defining the paleoecology of the past societies has been an archaeological thought developed in the 1960s. It is mainly concerned with the reconstruction from available geological and biological evidence of past biota, populations, communities, landscapes, environments, and ecosystems. Sri Lanka has dealt with this subject, and considerable research has been already undertaken. The fossil and material record of Sri Lanka’s Wet Zone tropical forests continues from c. 38,000–34,000 ybp. This early and persistent human fossil, technical, and cultural florescence, as well as a collection of well-preserved tropical-forest rock shelters with associated 'on-site' palaeoenvironmental records, makes Sri Lanka a central and unusual case study to determine the extent and strength of early human tropical forest encounters. Excavations carried out in prehistoric caves in the low country wet zone has shown that in the last 50,000 years, the temperature in the lowland rainforests has not exceeded 5°C. When taking Batadombalena alone, the entire seven layers have yielded an uninterrupted occupation of Acavus sp and Canerium zeylanicum, a plant that grows in the middle of the rainforest. Acavus, which is highly sensitive to rainforest ecosystems, has been well documented in many of the lowland caves, confirming that the wetland rainforest environment has remained intact at least for the last 50,000 years. If the dry and arid conditions in the upper hills regions affected the wet zone, the Tufted Gray Lunger (semnopithecus priam), must also meet with the prehistoric caves in the wet zone thrown over dry climate. However, the bones in the low country wet zone do not find any of the fragments belonging to Turfed Gray Lunger, and prehistoric human consumption is bestowed with purple-faced leaf monkey (Trachypithecus vetulus) and Toque Macaque (Macaca Sinica). The skeletal remains of Lyriocephalus scutatus, a full-time resident in rain forests, have also been recorded among lowland caves. But, in zoological terms, these remains may be the remains of the Barking deer (Muntiacus muntjak), which is currently found in the wet zone. For further investigations, the mtDNA test of genetic diversity (Bottleneck effect) and pollen study from lowland caves should determine whether the wet zone climate has persisted over the last 50,000 years, or whether the dry weather affected in the mountainous region has invaded the wet zone.

Keywords: paleoecology, prehistory, zooarchaeology, reconstruction, palaeo-climate

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Authors: Retang A. Mokua, Julia Glenday, Jacobus M. Nel

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Understanding hydrological processes in mountain headwater catchments, such as the Jonkershoek Valley, is crucial for improving the predictive capability of hydrologic modeling in the Cape Fold Mountain region of South Africa, incorporating the influence of the Table Mountain Group fractured rock aquifers. Determining the contributions of various possible surface and subsurface flow pathways in such catchments has been a challenge due to the complex nature of the fractured rock geology, low ionic concentrations, high rainfall, and streamflow variability. The study aimed to describe the mechanisms of streamflow generation during two seasons (dry and wet). In this study, stable isotopes of water (18O and 2H), hydrochemical tracer electrical conductivity (EC), hydrometric data were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation in flow pathways and geographic sources of stream water. Stream water, groundwater, two shallow piezometers, and spring samples were routinely sampled at two adjacent headwater sub-catchments and analyzed for isotopic ratios during baseflow conditions between January 2018 and January 2019. From these results, no significance (p > 0.05) in seasonal variations in isotopic ratios were observed, the stream isotope signatures were consistent throughout the study period. However, significant seasonal and spatial variations in the EC were evident (p < 0.05). The findings suggest that, in the dry season, baseflow generation mechanisms driven by groundwater and interflow as discharge from perennial springs in these catchments are the primary contributors. The wet season flows were attributed to interflow and perennial and ephemeral springs. Furthermore, the observed seasonal variations in EC were indicative of a greater proportion of sub-surface water inputs. With these results, a conceptual model of streamflow generation processes for the two seasons was constructed.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, Jonkershoek valley, stable isotopes, table mountain group

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Authors: Niloofar Zebarjad

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This research aims at finding a tool to provide basketball players with real-time audio feedback on their shooting form in free throw shots. Free throws played a pivotal role in taking the lead in fierce competitions. The major problem in performing an accurate free throw seems to be improper training. Since the arm movement during the free throw shot is complex, the coach or the athlete might miss the movement details during practice. Hence, there is a necessity to create a system that measures arm movements' critical characteristics and control for improper kinematics. The proposed setup in this study quantifies arm kinematics and provides real-time feedback as an audio signal consisting of a gyroscope sensor. Spatial shoulder angle data are transmitted in a mobile application in real-time and can be saved and processed for statistical and analysis purposes. The proposed system is easy to use, inexpensive, portable, and real-time applicable. Objectives: This research aims to modify and control the free throw using audio feedback and determine if and to what extent the new setup reduces errors in arm formations during throws and finally assesses the successful throw rate. Methods: One group of elite basketball athletes and two novice athletes (control and study group) participated in this study. Each group contains 5 participants being studied in three separate sessions over a week. Results: Empirical results showed enhancements in the free throw shooting style, shot pocket (SP), and locked position (LP). The mean values of shoulder angle were controlled on 25° and 45° for SP and LP, respectively, recommended by valid FIBA references. Conclusion: Throughout the experiments, the system helped correct and control the shoulder angles toward the targeted pattern of shot pocket (SP) and locked position (LP). According to the desired results for arm motion, adding another sensor to measure and control the elbow angle is recommended.

Keywords: audio-feedback, basketball, free-throw, locked-position, motor-control, shot-pocket

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Authors: Maria Giovanna Lupo, Marina Camera, Marcello Rattazzi, Nicola Ferri

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A complex interplay among chronic kidney disease, lipid metabolism and aortic calcification has been recognized starting from results of many clinical and experimental studies. Here we investigated the influence of kidney function on PCSK9 levels, both in uremic rats and in clinical observation study, and its potential direct action on cultured smooth muscle cells (SMCs) calcification. In a cohort of 594 subjects enrolled in a single centre, observational, cross-sectional and longitudinal study, a negative association between GFR and plasma PCSK9 was found. Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), as co-morbidity, further increased PCSK9 plasma levels. Diet-induced uremic condition in rats, induced aortic calcification and increased total cholesterol and PCSK9 levels in plasma, livers and kidneys. Immunohistochemical analysis confirmed PCSK9 expression in aortic SMCs. SMCs overexpressing PCSK9 (SMCsPCSK9), cultured for 7-days in a pro-calcification environment (2.0mM or 2.4mM inorganic phosphate, Pi) showed a significantly higher extracellular calcium (Ca2+) deposition compared to mocked SMCs. Under the same experimental conditions, the addition of exogenous recombinant PCSK9 did not increase the extracellular calcification of SMCs. By flow cytometry analysis we showed that SMCsPCSK9, in response to 2.4mM Pi, released higher number of extracellular vesicles (EVs) positive for three tetraspanin molecules, such as CD63, CD9, and CD81. EVs derived from SMCsPCSK9 tended to be more enriched in calcium and alkaline phosphatase (ALPL), compared to EVs from mocks SMCs. In conclusion, our study reveals a direct role of PCSK9 on vascular calcification induced by higher inorganic phosphate levels associated to CKD condition. This effect appears to be mediated by a positive effect of endogenous PCSK9 on the release of EVs containing Ca2+ and ALP, which facilitate the deposition inorganic calcium phosphate crystals.

Keywords: PCSK9, calcification, extracellular vesicles, chronic kidney disease

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Authors: Janneth Gonzalez, Andres Pinzon Velasco, Maria Angarita, Nicolas Mendoza

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Astrocytes play an important role in various processes in the brain, including pathological conditions such as neurodegenerative diseases. Recent studies have shown that the increase in saturated fatty acids such as palmitic acid (PA) triggers pro-inflammatory pathways in the brain. The use of synthetic neurosteroids such as tibolone has demonstrated neuro-protective mechanisms. However, there are few studies on the neuro-protective mechanisms of tibolone, especially at the systemic (omic) level. In this study, we performed the integration of multi-omic data (transcriptome and proteome) into a human astrocyte genomic scale metabolic model to study the astrocytic response during palmitate treatment. We evaluated metabolic fluxes in three scenarios (healthy, induced inflammation by PA, and tibolone treatment under PA inflammation). We also use control theory to identify those reactions that control the astrocytic system. Our results suggest that PA generates a modulation of central and secondary metabolism, showing a change in energy source use through inhibition of folate cycle and fatty acid β-oxidation and upregulation of ketone bodies formation.We found 25 metabolic switches under PA-mediated cellular regulation, 9 of which were critical only in the inflammatory scenario but not in the protective tibolone one. Within these reactions, inhibitory, total, and directional coupling profiles were key findings, playing a fundamental role in the (de)regulation in metabolic pathways that increase neurotoxicity and represent potential treatment targets. Finally, this study framework facilitates the understanding of metabolic regulation strategies, andit can be used for in silico exploring the mechanisms of astrocytic cell regulation, directing a more complex future experimental work in neurodegenerative diseases.

Keywords: astrocytes, data integration, palmitic acid, computational model, multi-omics, control theory

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Miroslav Dumbrovsky

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The paper deals with impacts of climate change with the main emphasis on land degradation, agriculture and forestry management in the landscape. Land degradation, due to adverse effect of farmers activities, as a result of inappropriate conventional technologies, was a major issue in the Czech Republic during the 20th century and will remain for solving in the 21st century. The importance of land degradation is very high because of its impact on crop productivity and many other adverse effects. Land degradation through soil degradation is causing losses on crop productivity and quality of the environment, through decreasing quality of soil and water (especially water resources). Negative effects of conventional farming practices are increased water erosion, as well as crusting and compaction of the topsoil and subsoil. Soil erosion caused by water destructs the soil’s structure, reduces crop productivity due to deterioration in soil physical and chemical properties such as infiltration rate, water-holding capacity, loss of nutrients needed for crop production, and loss of soil carbon. Water erosion occurs on fields with row crops (maize, sunflower), especially during the rainfall period from April to October. Recently there is a serious problem of greatly expanded production of biofuels and bioenergy from field crops. The result is accelerated soil degradation. The damages (on and off- site) are greater than the benefits. An effective soil conservation requires an appropriate complex system of measures in the landscape. They are also important to continue to develop new sophisticated methods and technologies for decreasing land degradation. The system of soil conservation solving land degradation depend on the ability and the willingness of land users to apply them. When we talk about land degradation, it is not just a technical issue but also an economic and political issue. From a technical point of view, we have already made many positive steps, but for successful solving the problem of land degradation is necessary to develop suitable economic and political tools to increase the willingness and ability of land users to adopt conservation measures.

Keywords: land degradation, soil erosion, soil conservation, climate change

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Authors: Baljit Soroya

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Transnational communities are as a consequence of greater mobility of people, globalization and digitization have had a major impact on international relations and diasporas in the context of external conflicts. To a significant extent conflicts are becoming deterritorialised and informed by both internal (state politics) and external (foreign policy) players such as in Iraq and Syria leading to forced migration of unprecedented levels within the last two decades. The situation of forced migrants has, it is suggested, worsened as a consequence of the neo-liberal policies and requirements of organizations such as the European Bank. A case example of this being that of Greece, and the exacerbation of insecurity for Greek nationals and the demonization of refugees seeking sanctuary. This has been as a consequence, in part, of the neoliberal dogma of the European Bank. The article analyses the complex intersection of the real and perceived threats of international terrorism and the manner in which UK migration policy and Practice is unfolding. The policy and practice developments are explored in the context of the shift in politics in both the UK and wider Europe to the far right and the drift of main stream political parties to the right. In many cases, the mainstream political groupings, have co-opted the fears as presented by far right organization for political their own political gains, such as in the UK and France In its analysis it will be argued that, whilst international terrorism is an issue of concern, however in the context of the UK it is not of the same scale as the effects of climate change or indeed domestic violence. Given that, the question has to be asked why the threat of international terrorism is having such an impact on UK migration policy and practice and, specifically refugees. Furthermore, it is argued that this policy and practice are being formulated within a narrative that portrays migrants as the problem both in relation to terrorism and the disenfranchisement of ‘ordinary white communities’. The intersectionality of social, economic inequalities, fear of international terrorism, increase in conflicts and the political climate have contributed to a lack of trust of political establishments that have in turn sought to impress the public with their anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy agendas. The article ends by suggesting that whilst politics and political affiliations have become fractured there are nevertheless spaces for collective action, particularly in relation to issues of refugees.

Keywords: international terrorism, migration policy, conflict, media, community, politics

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Authors: Lou J. Pino, Mark Campbell, Matthew J. Kennedy, Ashleigh C. Kennedy

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A concussion is complex and nuanced, with cognitive rest being a key component of recovery. Cognitive overexertion during rehabilitation from a concussion is associated with delayed recovery. However, daily living imposes cognitive demands that may be unavoidable and difficult to quantify. Therefore, a portable tool capable of alerting patients before cognitive overexertion occurs could allow patients to maintain their quality of life while preventing symptoms and recovery setbacks. EEG allows for a sensitive measure of cognitive exertion. Clinical 32-lead EEG headsets are not practical for day-to-day concussion rehabilitation management. However, there are now commercially available and affordable portable EEG headsets. Thus, these headsets can potentially be used to continuously monitor cognitive exertion during mental tasks to alert the wearer of overexertion, with the aim of preventing the occurrence of symptoms to speed recovery times. The objective of this study was to test an algorithm for predicting cognitive exertion from EEG data collected from a portable headset. EEG data were acquired from 10 participants (5 males, 5 females). Each participant wore a portable 4 channel EEG headband while completing 10 tasks: rest (eyes closed), rest (eyes open), three levels of the increasing difficulty of logic puzzles, three levels of increasing difficulty in multiplication questions, rest (eyes open), and rest (eyes closed). After each task, the participant was asked to report their perceived level of cognitive exertion using the NASA Task Load Index (TLX). Each participant then completed a second session on a different day. A customized machine learning model was created using data from the first session. The performance of each model was then tested using data from the second session. The mean correlation coefficient between TLX scores and predicted cognitive exertion was 0.75 ± 0.16. The results support the efficacy of the algorithm for predicting cognitive exertion. This demonstrates that the algorithms developed in this study used with portable EEG devices have the potential to aid in the concussion recovery process by monitoring and warning patients of cognitive overexertion. Preventing cognitive overexertion during recovery may reduce the number of symptoms a patient experiences and may help speed the recovery process.

Keywords: cognitive activity, EEG, machine learning, personalized recovery

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Authors: Madeline Phillips, Luis Mendez

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The 21st century has seen an increase in the amount and variety of psychological research on Latinx, the largest minority group in the U.S., with great variability from the individual’s cultural origin (e.g., ethnicity) to region (e.g., nationality). We were interested in exploring how scientists recruit, conduct and report research on Latinx samples. Ethnicity and race are important components of individuals and should be addressed to capture a broader and deeper understanding of psychological research findings. In order to explore Latinx/Hispanic work, the Journal of Latinx Psychology (JLP) and Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences (HJBS) were analyzed for 1) measures of ethnicity and race in empirical studies 2) nationalities represented 3) how researchers reported ethnic-racial demographics. The analysis included publications from 2013-2018 and revealed two common themes of reporting ethnicity and race: overrepresentation/underrepresentation and overgeneralization. There is currently not a systematic way of reporting ethnicity and race among Latinx/Hispanic research, creating a vague sense of what and how ethnicity/race plays a role in the lives of participants. Second, studies used the Hispanic/Latinx terms interchangeably and are not consistent across publications. For the purpose of this project, we were only interested in publications with Latinx samples in the U.S. Therefore, studies outside of the U.S. and non-empirical studies were excluded. JLP went from N = 118 articles to N = 94 and HJBS went from N = 174 to N = 154. For this project, we developed a coding rubric for ethnicity/race that reflected the different ways researchers reported ethnicity and race and was compatible with the U.S. census. We coded which ethnicity/race was identified as the largest ethnic group in each sample. We used the ethnic-racial breakdown numbers or percentages if provided. There were also studies that simply did not report the ethnic composition besides Hispanic or Latinx. We found that in 80% of the samples, Mexicans are overrepresented compared to the population statistics of Latinx in the US. We observed all the ethnic-racial breakdowns, demonstrating the overrepresentation of Mexican samples and underrepresentation and/or lack of representation of certain ethnicities (e.g., Chilean, Guatemalan). Our results showed an overgeneralization of studies that cluster their participants to Latinx/Hispanic, 23 for JLP and 63 for HJBS. The authors discuss the importance of transparency from researchers in reporting the context of the sample, including country, state, neighborhood, and demographic variables that are relevant to the goals of the project, except when there may be an issue of privacy and/or confidentiality involved. In addition, the authors discuss the importance to recognize the variability within the Latinx population and how it is reflected in the scientific discourse.

Keywords: Latinx, Hispanic, race and ethnicity, diversity

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Authors: Kyra Kannen, Sonja D. Roelen, Sebastian Schnieder, Jarek Krajewski, Steffen Holsteg, André Karger, Johanna Askeridis, Celina Slawik, Philip Mildner, Jens Piesk, Ruslan David, Holger Kürten, Benjamin Oster, Robert Malzan, Mike Ludemann

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Virtual Reality (VR) is increasingly recognized for its potential in transforming mental disorder treatment, offering advantages such as cost-effectiveness, time efficiency, accessibility, reduced stigma, and scalability. While the application of VR in the context of anxiety disorders has been extensively evaluated and demonstrated to be effective, the utilization of VR as a therapeutic treatment for depression remains under-investigated. Our goal is to pioneer immersive VR therapy modules for treating major depression, alongside a web-based system for home use. We develop a modular digital therapy platform grounded in psychodynamic therapy interventions which addresses stress reduction, exploration of social situations and relationship support, social skill training, avoidance behavior analysis, and psychoeducation. In addition, an automated depression monitoring system, based on acoustic voice analysis, is implemented in the form of a speech-based diary to track the affective state of the user and depression severity. The use of immersive VR facilitates patient immersion into complex and realistic interpersonal interactions with high emotional engagement, which may contribute to positive treatment acceptance and satisfaction. In a proof-of-concept study, 45 depressed patients were assigned to VR or web-platform modules, evaluating user experience, usability and additional metrics including depression severity, mindfulness, interpersonal problems, and treatment satisfaction. The findings provide valuable insights into the effectiveness and user-friendliness of VR and web modules for depression therapy and contribute to the refinement of more tailored digital interventions to improve mental health.

Keywords: virtual reality therapy, digital health, depression, psychotherapy

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Authors: Luan Vardari, Dena Arapi Vardari

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The Balkan countries, known for their diverse landscapes and cultural heritage, face the dual challenge of promoting economic growth while addressing pressing environmental concerns. In recent years, the concept of green finance has emerged as a powerful tool to achieve sustainable development and mitigate the environmental impact of various sectors, including architecture. This extended abstract explores the untapped potential of green finance in architecture within the Balkan region and highlights its role in driving sustainable construction practices and fostering a greener future. The abstract begins by defining green finance and emphasizing its relevance in the context of the architectural sector in Balkan countries. It underlines the benefits of green finance, such as economic growth, environmental conservation, and social well-being. Integrating green finance into architectural projects is important as a means to achieve sustainable development goals while promoting financial viability. Also, delves into the current state of green building practices in the Balkan countries and identifies the need for financial support to further drive adoption. It explores the existing regulatory frameworks and policies that promote sustainable architecture and discusses how green finance can complement these initiatives. Unique challenges faced by Balkan countries are highlighted, along with the potential opportunities that green finance presents in overcoming these challenges. We highlight successful sustainable architectural projects in the region to showcase the practical application of green finance in the Balkans. These projects exemplify the effective utilization of green finance mechanisms, resulting in tangible economic and environmental impacts, including job creation, energy efficiency, and reduced carbon emissions. The abstract concludes by identifying replicable models and lessons learned from these projects that can serve as a blueprint for future sustainable architecture initiatives in the Balkans. The importance of collaboration and knowledge sharing among stakeholders is emphasized. Engaging architects, financial institutions, governments, and local communities is crucial to promoting green finance in architecture. The abstract suggests the establishment of knowledge exchange platforms and regional/international networks to foster collaboration and facilitate the sharing of expertise among Balkan countries.

Keywords: sustainable finance, renewable energy, Balkan region, investment opportunities, green infrastructure, ESG criteria, architecture

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Authors: Liu Chyong-Ru, Wang Yao-Chin, Huang Wen-Shiung, Tang Wan-Ching

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Although gamification has been concerned and applied in the tourism industry, limited literature could be found in tourism academy. Therefore, to contribute knowledge in festival gamification, it becomes essential to start by establishing a Festival Gamification Scale (FGS). This study defines festival gamification as the extent of a festival to involve game elements and game mechanisms. Based on self-determination theory, this study developed an FGS. Through the multi-study method, in study one, five FGS dimensions were sorted through literature review, followed by twelve in-depth interviews. A total of 296 statements were extracted from interviews and were later narrowed down to 33 items under six dimensions. In study two, 226 survey responses were collected from a cycling festival for exploratory factor analysis, resulting in twenty items under five dimensions. In study three, 253 survey responses were obtained from a marathon festival for confirmatory factor analysis, resulting in the final sixteen items under five dimensions. Then, results of criterion-related validity confirmed the positive effects of these five dimensions on flow experience. In study four, for examining the model extension of the developed five-dimensional 16-item FGS, which includes dimensions of relatedness, mastery, competence, fun, and narratives, cross-validation analysis was performed using 219 survey responses from a religious festival. For the tourism academy, the FGS could further be applied in other sub-fields such as destinations, theme parks, cruise trips, or resorts. The FGS serves as a starting point for examining the mechanism of festival gamification in changing tourists’ attitudes and behaviors. Future studies could work on follow-up studies of FGS by testing outcomes of festival gamification or examining moderating effects of enhancing outcomes of festival gamification. On the other hand, although the FGS has been tested in cycling, marathon, and religious festivals, the research settings are all in Taiwan. Cultural differences of FGS is another further direction for contributing knowledge in festival gamification. This study also contributes to several valuable practical implications. First, this FGS could be utilized in tourist surveys for evaluating the extent of gamification of a festival. Based on the results of the performance assessment by FGS, festival management organizations and festival planners could learn the relative scores among dimensions of FGS, and plan for future improvement of gamifying the festival. Second, the FGS could be applied in positioning a gamified festival. Festival management organizations and festival planners could firstly consider the features and types of their festival, and then gamify their festival based on investing resources in key FGS dimensions.

Keywords: festival gamification, festival tourism, scale development, self-determination theory

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Authors: Pradyumna R., Sridhar S., A. Satyanarayana, Alok S. Chauhan, Baig M. A. H.

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Modern turbine engines for aerospace applications need precision investment cast components such as integrally cast rotors and stators, for their hot end turbine stages. Traditionally, these turbines are used as starter engines. In recent times, such engines are also used for strategic missile applications. The rotor/stator castings consist of a central hub (shrouded in some designs) over which a number of aerofoil shaped blades are located. Since these components cannot be machined, investment casting is the only available route for manufacture and hence stringent dimensional aerospace quality has to be in-built in the casting process itself. In the process of investment casting, pattern generation by injection of wax into dedicated dies/moulds is the first critical step. Traditional approach deals in producing individual blades with hub/shroud features through wax injection and assembly of a set of such injected patterns onto a dedicated and precisely manufactured fixture to wax-weld and generate an integral wax pattern, a process known as the ‘segmental approach’. It is possible to design a single-injection die with retractable metallic inserts in the case of untwisted blades of stator patterns without the shroud. Such an approach is also possible for twisted blades of rotors with highly complex design of inter-blade inserts and retraction mechanisms. DMRL has for long established methods and procedures for the above to successfully supply precision castings for various defence related projects. In recent times, urea based soluble insert approach has also been successfully applied to overcome the need to design and manufacture a precision assembly fixture, leading to substantial reduction in component development times. Present paper deals in length various approaches tried and established at DMRL to generate precision wax patterns for aerospace quality turbine rotors and stators. In addition to this, the importance of simulation in solving issues related to wax injection is also touched upon.

Keywords: die/mold and fixtures, integral rotor/stator, investment casting, wax patterns, simulation

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Authors: Jiri Beranovsky, Jaroslav Knapek, Tomas Kralik, Kamila Vavrova

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The paper deals with the results of research focused on the complex aspects of the use of intentionally grown biomass on agricultural land for the production of solid biofuels as an alternative for individual household heating. . The study primarily deals with the analysis of CO2 emissions of the logistics cycle of biomass for the production of energy pellets. Growing, harvesting, transport and storage are evaluated in the pellet production cycle. The aim is also to take into account the consumption profile during the year in terms of heating of common family houses, which are typical end-market segment for these fuels. It is assumed that in family houses, bio-pellets are able to substitute typical fossil fuels, such as brown coal and old wood burning heating devices and also electric boilers. One of the competing technology with the pellets are heat pumps. The results show the CO2 emissions related with considered fuels and technologies for their utilization. Comparative analysis is aimed biopellets from intentionally grown biomass, brown coal, natural gas and electricity used in electric boilers and heat pumps. Analysis combines CO2 emissions related with individual fuels utilization with costs of these fuels utilization. Cost of biopellets from intentionally grown biomass is derived from the economic models of individual energy crop plantations. At the same time, the restrictions imposed by EU legislation on Ecodesign's fuel and combustion equipment requirements and NOx emissions are discussed. Preliminary results of analyzes show that to achieve the competitiveness of pellets produced from specifically grown biomass, it would be necessary to either significantly ecological tax on coal (from about 0.3 to 3-3.5 EUR/GJ), or to multiply the agricultural subsidy per area. In addition to the Czech Republic, the results are also relevant for other countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland, which also have a high proportion of solid fuels for household heating.

Keywords: CO2 emissions, heating costs, energy crop, pellets, brown coal, heat pumps, economical evaluation

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Authors: Axel Thallemer, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Abel Fam, Alex Teo

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For centuries, the forming processes in nature served as a source of inspiration for both architects and designers. It seems as most human artifacts are based on ideas which stem from the observation of the biological world and its principles of growth. As a fact, in the cultural history of Homo faber, materials have been mostly used in their solid state: From hand axe to computer mouse, the principle of employing matter has not changed ever since the first creation. In the scope of history only recently and by the help of additive-generative fabrication processes through Computer Aided Design (CAD), designers were enabled to deconstruct solid artifacts into an outer skin and an internal lattice structure. The intention behind this approach is to create a new topology which reduces resources and integrates functions into an additively manufactured component. However, looking at the currently employed lattice structures, it is very clear that those lattice structure geometries have not been thoroughly designed, but rather taken out of basic-geometry libraries which are usually provided by the CAD. In the here presented study, a group of 20 industrial design students created new and unique lattice structures using natural paragons as their models. The selected natural models comprise both the animate and inanimate world, with examples ranging from the spiraling of narwhal tusks, off-shooting of mangrove roots, minimal surfaces of soap bubbles, up to the rhythmical arrangement of molecular geometry, like in the case of SiOC (Carbon-Rich Silicon Oxicarbide). This ideation process leads to a design of a geometric cell, which served as a basic module for the lattice structure, whereby the cell was created in visual analogy to its respective natural model. The spatial lattices were fabricated additively in mostly [X]3 by [Y]3 by [Z]3 units’ volumes using selective powder bed melting in polyamide with (z-axis) 50 mm and 100 µm resolution and subdued to mechanical testing of their elastic zone in a biomedical laboratory. The results demonstrate that additively manufactured lattice structures can acquire different properties when they are designed in analogy to natural models. Several of the lattices displayed the ability to store and return kinetic energy, while others revealed a structural failure which can be exploited for purposes where a controlled collapse of a structure is required. This discovery allows for various new applications of functional lattice structures within industrially created objects.

Keywords: bio-inspired, biomimetic, lattice structures, additive manufacturing

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Authors: Shalinawati Ramli, Khairani Omar, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Zarini Ismail, Nur Syahrina Rahim, Nurul Hayati Chamhuri

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Medical doctors’ work to prevent, diagnose, treat diseases, disorders, and injuries as well as prescribing medication. Many people are attracted to this profession because it gives them the opportunity to help others. Doctors’ improve quality of life by providing advice, healing physical ailments and performing complex surgeries. Medicine is a profession in which dedication to the wellbeing of others is of paramount importance. Balancing the requirements of work and personal life can be a struggle as the demand of work as a doctors’ is great. Perception and expectation of medical students regarding the lifestyle of doctors’ is important to ensure that they had made the right career choice. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the perception of pre-clinical students regarding doctors’ lifestyle. This study is a cross-sectional study involving all third-year pre-clinical medical students at University Sains Islam Malaysia. A total of 81 students participated in this study. Participants were given a set of questionnaire consisting of demographic data, open-ended questions on their perception on doctors’ lifestyle of working environment, salary expectation and family life. Thematic analysis were used to analyse the data. The participants comprised 69% female and their age range was between 20-21 years old. Majority of them were from middle-income families. Majority of the students perceived that the doctors’ lifestyle would be busy (72%). Approximately 30% of them expected that the time schedule will be unpredictable, 21% mentioned that sacrifice is required and 16% perceived it as a tiring job. Other themes emerged were ‘requiring high commitment’ (6%), challenging (7%) and risky (4%). With regards to salary expectation, 48% expected reasonable salary, 33% high salary and 12% described it as 'not worth compared to the workload'. Majority of them perceived that their family life will be restricted (62%) and time management is important (33%). Only 15% mentioned that family members have to sacrifice and spousal understanding is important (7%). About 10% of them perceived that their family will not be affected by their profession. Majority of the medical students perceived a busy doctors’ lifestyle, reasonable salary and restricted family life. However, there was a significant proportion of them who required counselling for better preparation of their future lifestyle.

Keywords: doctors lifestyle, pre-clinical students, perception, understanding

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Authors: Shalaka Kadam, Dinesh Apte, Sagar Mainkar

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The life cycle of products is becoming shorter and shorter due to increased competition in market, shorter product development time and increased product diversity. Short life cycles are normal in retail industry, style business, entertainment media, and telecom and semiconductor industry. The subject of accurate forecasting for demand of short lifecycle products is of special enthusiasm for many researchers and organizations. Due to short life cycle of products the amount of historical data that is available for forecasting is very minimal or even absent when new or modified products are launched in market. The companies dealing with such products want to increase the accuracy in demand forecasting so that they can utilize the full potential of the market at the same time do not oversupply. This provides the challenge to develop a forecasting model that can forecast accurately while handling large variations in data and consider the complex relationships between various parameters of data. Many statistical models have been proposed in literature for forecasting time series data. Traditional time series forecasting models do not work well for short life cycles due to lack of historical data. Also artificial neural networks (ANN) models are very time consuming to perform forecasting. We have studied the existing models that are used for forecasting and their limitations. This work proposes an effective and powerful forecasting approach for short life cycle time series forecasting. We have proposed an approach which takes into consideration different scenarios related to data availability for short lifecycle products. We then suggest a methodology which combines statistical analysis with structured judgement. Also the defined approach can be applied across domains. We then describe the method of creating a profile from analogous products. This profile can then be used for forecasting products with historical data of analogous products. We have designed an application which combines data, analytics and domain knowledge using point-and-click technology. The forecasting results generated are compared using MAPE, MSE and RMSE error scores. Conclusion: Based on the results it is observed that no one approach is sufficient for short life-cycle forecasting and we need to combine two or more approaches for achieving the desired accuracy.

Keywords: forecast, short life cycle product, structured judgement, time series

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Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele

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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.

Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties

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Authors: Ola Jon Mork, Lars Andre Giske, Emil Bjørlykhaug

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Stabilization of critical processes in order to have the right quality of the products, more efficient production and smoother flow is a key issue in lean production. This paper presents how simulation of key welding processes can stabilize complicated welding processes in small scale production, and how simulation can impact the entire production concept seen from the perspective of lean production. First, a field study was made to learn the production processes in the factory, and subsequently the field study was transformed into a value stream map to get insight into each operation, the quality issues, operation times, lead times and flow of materials. Valuable practical knowledge of how the welding operations were done by operators, appropriate tools and jigs, and type of robots that could be used, was collected. All available information was then implemented into a simulation environment for further elaboration and development. Three researchers, the management of the company and skilled operators at the work floor where working on the project over a period of eight months, and a detailed description of the process was made by the researchers. The simulation showed that simulation could solve a number of technical challenges, the robot program can be tuned in off line mode, and the design and testing of the robot cell could be made in the simulator. Further on the design of the product could be optimized for robot welding and the jigs could be designed and tested in simulation environment. This means that a key issue of lean production can be solved; the welding operation will work with almost 100% performance when it is put into real production. Stabilizing of one key process is critical to gain control of the entire value chain, then a Takt Time can be established and the focus can be directed towards the next process in the production which should be stabilized. Results show that industrial parameters like welding time, welding cost and welding quality can be defined on the simulation stage. Further on, this gives valuable information for calculation of the factories business performance, like manufacturing volume and manufacturing efficiency. Industrial impact from simulation is more efficient implementation of lean manufacturing, since the welding process can be stabilized. More research should be done to gain more knowledge about simulation as a tool for implementation of lean, especially where there complex processes.

Keywords: simulation, lean, stabilization, welding process

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 134