Search results for: discrete events simulation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7369

Search results for: discrete events simulation

559 A Coupled Model for Two-Phase Simulation of a Heavy Water Pressure Vessel Reactor

Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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558 Investigation of Projected Organic Waste Impact on a Tropical Wetland in Singapore

Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

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Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

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557 Surface Tension and Bulk Density of Ammonium Nitrate Solutions: A Molecular Dynamics Study

Authors: Sara Mosallanejad, Bogdan Z. Dlugogorski, Jeff Gore, Mohammednoor Altarawneh

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Ammonium nitrate (NH­₄NO₃, AN) is commonly used as the main component of AN emulsion and fuel oil (ANFO) explosives, that use extensively in civilian and mining operations for underground development and tunneling applications. The emulsion formulation and wettability of AN prills, which affect the physical stability and detonation of ANFO, highly depend on the surface tension, density, viscosity of the used liquid. Therefore, for engineering applications of this material, the determination of density and surface tension of concentrated aqueous solutions of AN is essential. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method have been used to investigate the density and the surface tension of high concentrated ammonium nitrate solutions; up to its solubility limit in water. Non-polarisable models for water and ions have carried out the simulations, and the electronic continuum correction model (ECC) uses a scaling of the charges of the ions to apply the polarisation implicitly into the non-polarisable model. The results of calculated density and the surface tension of the solutions have been compared to available experimental values. Our MD simulations show that the non-polarisable model with full-charge ions overestimates the experimental results while the reduce-charge model for the ions fits very well with the experimental data. Ions in the solutions show repulsion from the interface using the non-polarisable force fields. However, when charges of the ions in the original model are scaled in line with the scaling factor of the ECC model, the ions create a double ionic layer near the interface by the migration of anions toward the interface while cations stay in the bulk of the solutions. Similar ions orientations near the interface were observed when polarisable models were used in simulations. In conclusion, applying the ECC model to the non-polarisable force field yields the density and surface tension of the AN solutions with high accuracy in comparison to the experimental measurements.

Keywords: ammonium nitrate, electronic continuum correction, non-polarisable force field, surface tension

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556 Development of an Atmospheric Radioxenon Detection System for Nuclear Explosion Monitoring

Authors: V. Thomas, O. Delaune, W. Hennig, S. Hoover

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Measurement of radioactive isotopes of atmospheric xenon is used to detect, locate and identify any confined nuclear tests as part of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In this context, the Alternative Energies and French Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) has developed a fixed device to continuously measure the concentration of these fission products, the SPALAX process. During its atmospheric transport, the radioactive xenon will undergo a significant dilution between the source point and the measurement station. Regarding the distance between fixed stations located all over the globe, the typical volume activities measured are near 1 mBq m⁻³. To avoid the constraints induced by atmospheric dilution, the development of a mobile detection system is in progress; this system will allow on-site measurements in order to confirm or infringe a suspicious measurement detected by a fixed station. Furthermore, this system will use beta/gamma coincidence measurement technique in order to drastically reduce environmental background (which masks such activities). The detector prototype consists of a gas cell surrounded by two large silicon wafers, coupled with two square NaI(Tl) detectors. The gas cell has a sample volume of 30 cm³ and the silicon wafers are 500 µm thick with an active surface area of 3600 mm². In order to minimize leakage current, each wafer has been segmented into four independent silicon pixels. This cell is sandwiched between two low background NaI(Tl) detectors (70x70x40 mm³ crystal). The expected Minimal Detectable Concentration (MDC) for each radio-xenon is in the order of 1-10 mBq m⁻³. Three 4-channels digital acquisition modules (Pixie-NET) are used to process all the signals. Time synchronization is ensured by a dedicated PTP-network, using the IEEE 1588 Precision Time Protocol. We would like to present this system from its simulation to the laboratory tests.

Keywords: beta/gamma coincidence technique, low level measurement, radioxenon, silicon pixels

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555 On the Bias and Predictability of Asylum Cases

Authors: Panagiota Katsikouli, William Hamilton Byrne, Thomas Gammeltoft-Hansen, Tijs Slaats

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An individual who demonstrates a well-founded fear of persecution or faces real risk of being subjected to torture is eligible for asylum. In Danish law, the exact legal thresholds reflect those established by international conventions, notably the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1950 European Convention for Human Rights. These international treaties, however, remain largely silent when it comes to how states should assess asylum claims. As a result, national authorities are typically left to determine an individual’s legal eligibility on a narrow basis consisting of an oral testimony, which may itself be hampered by several factors, including imprecise language interpretation, insecurity or lacking trust towards the authorities among applicants. The leaky ground, on which authorities must assess their subjective perceptions of asylum applicants' credibility, questions whether, in all cases, adjudicators make the correct decision. Moreover, the subjective element in these assessments raises questions on whether individual asylum cases could be afflicted by implicit biases or stereotyping amongst adjudicators. In fact, recent studies have uncovered significant correlations between decision outcomes and the experience and gender of the assigned judge, as well as correlations between asylum outcomes and entirely external events such as weather and political elections. In this study, we analyze a publicly available dataset containing approximately 8,000 summaries of asylum cases, initially rejected, and re-tried by the Refugee Appeals Board (RAB) in Denmark. First, we look for variations in the recognition rates, with regards to a number of applicants’ features: their country of origin/nationality, their identified gender, their identified religion, their ethnicity, whether torture was mentioned in their case and if so, whether it was supported or not, and the year the applicant entered Denmark. In order to extract those features from the text summaries, as well as the final decision of the RAB, we applied natural language processing and regular expressions, adjusting for the Danish language. We observed interesting variations in recognition rates related to the applicants’ country of origin, ethnicity, year of entry and the support or not of torture claims, whenever those were made in the case. The appearance (or not) of significant variations in the recognition rates, does not necessarily imply (or not) bias in the decision-making progress. None of the considered features, with the exception maybe of the torture claims, should be decisive factors for an asylum seeker’s fate. We therefore investigate whether the decision can be predicted on the basis of these features, and consequently, whether biases are likely to exist in the decisionmaking progress. We employed a number of machine learning classifiers, and found that when using the applicant’s country of origin, religion, ethnicity and year of entry with a random forest classifier, or a decision tree, the prediction accuracy is as high as 82% and 85% respectively. tentially predictive properties with regards to the outcome of an asylum case. Our analysis and findings call for further investigation on the predictability of the outcome, on a larger dataset of 17,000 cases, which is undergoing.

Keywords: asylum adjudications, automated decision-making, machine learning, text mining

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554 Microplastics in Urban Environment – Coimbra City Case Study

Authors: Inês Amorim Leitão, Loes van Shaick, António Dinis Ferreira, Violette Geissen

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Plastic pollution is a growing concern worldwide: plastics are commercialized in large quantities and it takes a long time for them to degrade. When in the environment, plastic is fragmented into microplastics (<5mm), which have been found in all environmental compartments at different locations. Microplastics contribute to the environmental pollution in water, air and soil and are linked to human health problems. The progressive increase of population living in cities led to the aggravation of the pollution problem worldwide, especially in urban environments. Urban areas represent a strong source of pollution, through the roads, industrial production, wastewater, landfills, etc. It is expected that pollutants such as microplastics are transported diffusely from the sources through different pathways such as wind and rain. Therefore, it is very complex to quantify, control and treat these pollutants, designated current problematic issues by the European Commission. Green areas are pointed out by experts as natural filters for contaminants in cities, through their capacity of retention by vegetation. These spaces have thus the capacity to control the load of pollutants transported. This study investigates the spatial distribution of microplastics in urban soils of different land uses, their transport through atmospheric deposition, wind erosion, runoff and streams, as well as their deposition in vegetation like grass and tree leaves in urban environment. Coimbra, a medium large city located in the central Portugal, is the case-study. All the soil, sediments, water and vegetation samples were collected in Coimbra and were later analyzed in the Wageningen University & Research laboratory. Microplastics were extracted through the density separation using Sodium Phosphate as solution (~1.4 g cm−3) and filtration methods, visualized under a stereo microscope and identified using the u-FTIR method. Microplastic particles were found in all the different samples. In terms of soils, higher concentrations of microplastics were found in green parks, followed by landfills and industrial places, and the lowest concentrations in forests and pasture land-uses. Atmospheric deposition and streams after rainfall events seems to represent the strongest pathways of microplastics. Tree leaves can retain microplastics on their surfaces. Small leaves such as needle leaves seem to present higher amounts of microplastics per leaf area than bigger leaves. Rainfall episodes seem to reduce the concentration of microplastics on leaves surface, which suggests the wash of microplastics down to lower levels of the tree or to the soil. When in soil, different types of microplastics could be transported to the atmosphere through wind erosion. Grass seems to present high concentrations of microplastics, and the enlargement of the grass cover leads to a reduction of the amount of microplastics in soil, but also of the microplastics moved from the ground to the atmosphere by wind erosion. This study proof that vegetation can help to control the transport and dispersion of microplastics. In order to control the entry and the concentration of microplastics in the environment, especially in cities, it is essential to defining and evaluating nature-based land-use scenarios, considering the role of green urban areas in filtering small particles.

Keywords: microplastics, cities, sources, pathways, vegetation

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553 Intelligent Cooperative Integrated System for Road Safety and Road Infrastructure Maintenance

Authors: Panagiotis Gkekas, Christos Sougles, Dionysios Kehagias, Dimitrios Tzovaras

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This paper presents the architecture of the “Intelligent cooperative integrated system for road safety and road infrastructure maintenance towards 2020” (ODOS2020) advanced infrastructure, which implements a number of cooperative ITS applications based on Internet of Things and Infrastructure-to-Vehicle (V2I) technologies with the purpose to enhance the active road safety level of vehicles through the provision of a fully automated V2I environment. The primary objective of the ODOS2020 project is to contribute to increased road safety but also to the optimization of time for maintenance of road infrastructure. The integrated technological solution presented in this paper addresses all types of vehicles and requires minimum vehicle equipment. Thus, the ODOS2020 comprises a low-cost solution, which is one of its main benefits. The system architecture includes an integrated notification system to transmit personalized information on road, traffic, and environmental conditions, in order for the drivers to receive real-time and reliable alerts concerning upcoming critical situations. The latter include potential dangers on the road, such as obstacles or road works ahead, extreme environmental conditions, etc., but also informative messages, such as information on upcoming tolls and their charging policies. At the core of the system architecture lies an integrated sensorial network embedded in special road infrastructures (strips) that constantly collect and transmit wirelessly information about passing vehicles’ identification, type, speed, moving direction and other traffic information in combination with environmental conditions and road wear monitoring and predictive maintenance data. Data collected from sensors is transmitted by roadside infrastructure, which supports a variety of communication technologies such as ITS-G5 (IEEE-802.11p) wireless network and Internet connectivity through cellular networks (3G, LTE). All information could be forwarded to both vehicles and Traffic Management Centers (TMC) operators, either directly through the ITS-G5 network, or to smart devices with Internet connectivity, through cloud-based services. Therefore, through its functionality, the system could send personalized notifications/information/warnings and recommendations for upcoming events to both road users and TMC operators. In the course of the ODOS2020 project pilot operation has been conducted to allow drivers of both C-ITS equipped and non-equipped vehicles to experience the provided added value services. For non-equipped vehicles, the provided information is transmitted to a smartphone application. Finally, the ODOS2020 system and infrastructure is appropriate for installation on both urban, rural, and highway environments. The paper presents the various parts of the system architecture and concludes by outlining the various challenges that had to be overcome during its design, development, and deployment in a real operational environment. Acknowledgments: Work presented in this paper was co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund of the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program Competitiveness, Entrepreneurship and Innovation (call RESEARCH–CREATE–INNOVATE) under contract no. Τ1EDK-03081 (project ODOS2020).

Keywords: infrastructure to vehicle, intelligent transportation systems, internet of things, road safety

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552 E4D-MP: Time-Lapse Multiphysics Simulation and Joint Inversion Toolset for Large-Scale Subsurface Imaging

Authors: Zhuanfang Fred Zhang, Tim C. Johnson, Yilin Fang, Chris E. Strickland

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A variety of geophysical techniques are available to image the opaque subsurface with little or no contact with the soil. It is common to conduct time-lapse surveys of different types for a given site for improved results of subsurface imaging. Regardless of the chosen survey methods, it is often a challenge to process the massive amount of survey data. The currently available software applications are generally based on the one-dimensional assumption for a desktop personal computer. Hence, they are usually incapable of imaging the three-dimensional (3D) processes/variables in the subsurface of reasonable spatial scales; the maximum amount of data that can be inverted simultaneously is often very small due to the capability limitation of personal computers. Presently, high-performance or integrating software that enables real-time integration of multi-process geophysical methods is needed. E4D-MP enables the integration and inversion of time-lapsed large-scale data surveys from geophysical methods. Using the supercomputing capability and parallel computation algorithm, E4D-MP is capable of processing data across vast spatiotemporal scales and in near real time. The main code and the modules of E4D-MP for inverting individual or combined data sets of time-lapse 3D electrical resistivity, spectral induced polarization, and gravity surveys have been developed and demonstrated for sub-surface imaging. E4D-MP provides capability of imaging the processes (e.g., liquid or gas flow, solute transport, cavity development) and subsurface properties (e.g., rock/soil density, conductivity) critical for successful control of environmental engineering related efforts such as environmental remediation, carbon sequestration, geothermal exploration, and mine land reclamation, among others.

Keywords: gravity survey, high-performance computing, sub-surface monitoring, electrical resistivity tomography

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551 Mathematical Modelling of Drying Kinetics of Cantaloupe in a Solar Assisted Dryer

Authors: Melike Sultan Karasu Asnaz, Ayse Ozdogan Dolcek

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Crop drying, which aims to reduce the moisture content to a certain level, is a method used to extend the shelf life and prevent it from spoiling. One of the oldest food preservation techniques is open sunor shade drying. Even though this technique is the most affordable of all drying methods, there are some drawbacks such as contamination by insects, environmental pollution, windborne dust, and direct expose to weather conditions such as wind, rain, hail. However, solar dryers that provide a hygienic and controllable environment to preserve food and extend its shelf life have been developed and used to dry agricultural products. Thus, foods can be dried quickly without being affected by weather variables, and quality products can be obtained. This research is mainly devoted to investigating the modelling of drying kinetics of cantaloupe in a forced convection solar dryer. Mathematical models for the drying process should be defined to simulate the drying behavior of the foodstuff, which will greatly contribute to the development of solar dryer designs. Thus, drying experiments were conducted and replicated five times, and various data such as temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiation, drying air speed, and weight were instantly monitored and recorded. Moisture content of sliced and pretreated cantaloupe were converted into moisture ratio and then fitted against drying time for constructing drying curves. Then, 10 quasi-theoretical and empirical drying models were applied to find the best drying curve equation according to the Levenberg-Marquardt nonlinear optimization method. The best fitted mathematical drying model was selected according to the highest coefficient of determination (R²), and the mean square of the deviations (χ^²) and root mean square error (RMSE) criterial. The best fitted model was utilized to simulate a thin layer solar drying of cantaloupe, and the simulation results were compared with the experimental data for validation purposes.

Keywords: solar dryer, mathematical modelling, drying kinetics, cantaloupe drying

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550 Analysis of Autonomous Orbit Determination for Lagrangian Navigation Constellation with Different Dynamical Models

Authors: Gao Youtao, Zhao Tanran, Jin Bingyu, Xu Bo

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Global navigation satellite system(GNSS) can deliver navigation information for spacecraft orbiting on low-Earth orbits and medium Earth orbits. However, the GNSS cannot navigate the spacecraft on high-Earth orbit or deep space probes effectively. With the deep space exploration becoming a hot spot of aerospace, the demand for a deep space satellite navigation system is becoming increasingly prominent. Many researchers discussed the feasibility and performance of a satellite navigation system on periodic orbits around the Earth-Moon libration points which can be called Lagrangian point satellite navigation system. Autonomous orbit determination (AOD) is an important performance for the Lagrangian point satellite navigation system. With this ability, the Lagrangian point satellite navigation system can reduce the dependency on ground stations. AOD also can greatly reduce total system cost and assure mission continuity. As the elliptical restricted three-body problem can describe the Earth-Moon system more accurately than the circular restricted three-body problem, we study the autonomous orbit determination of Lagrangian navigation constellation using only crosslink range based on elliptical restricted three body problem. Extended Kalman filter is used in the autonomous orbit determination. In order to compare the autonomous orbit determination results based on elliptical restricted three-body problem to the results of autonomous orbit determination based on circular restricted three-body problem, we give the autonomous orbit determination position errors of a navigation constellation include four satellites based on the circular restricted three-body problem. The simulation result shows that the Lagrangian navigation constellation can achieve long-term precise autonomous orbit determination using only crosslink range. In addition, the type of the libration point orbit will influence the autonomous orbit determination accuracy.

Keywords: extended Kalman filter, autonomous orbit determination, quasi-periodic orbit, navigation constellation

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549 Robust Numerical Solution for Flow Problems

Authors: Gregor Kosec

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Simple and robust numerical approach for solving flow problems is presented, where involved physical fields are represented through the local approximation functions, i.e., the considered field is approximated over a local support domain. The approximation functions are then used to evaluate the partial differential operators. The type of approximation, the size of support domain, and the type and number of basis function can be general. The solution procedure is formulated completely through local computational operations. Besides local numerical method also the pressure velocity is performed locally with retaining the correct temporal transient. The complete locality of the introduced numerical scheme has several beneficial effects. One of the most attractive is the simplicity since it could be understood as a generalized Finite Differences Method, however, much more powerful. Presented methodology offers many possibilities for treating challenging cases, e.g. nodal adaptivity to address regions with sharp discontinuities or p-adaptivity to treat obscure anomalies in physical field. The stability versus computation complexity and accuracy can be regulated by changing number of support nodes, etc. All these features can be controlled on the fly during the simulation. The presented methodology is relatively simple to understand and implement, which makes it potentially powerful tool for engineering simulations. Besides simplicity and straightforward implementation, there are many opportunities to fully exploit modern computer architectures through different parallel computing strategies. The performance of the method is presented on the lid driven cavity problem, backward facing step problem, de Vahl Davis natural convection test, extended also to low Prandtl fluid and Darcy porous flow. Results are presented in terms of velocity profiles, convergence plots, and stability analyses. Results of all cases are also compared against published data.

Keywords: fluid flow, meshless, low Pr problem, natural convection

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548 Transitioning Classroom Students to Working Learners: Lived Experiences of Senior High School Work Immersion Students

Authors: Rico Herrero

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The study looked into the different lived experiences of senior high school to work immersion and how they were able to cope up in the transition stage from being classroom students into immersion students in work immersion site. The participants of the study were the ten senior high school students from Punta Integrated School. Using interview guide questions, the researchers motivated the participants to reveal their thoughts, feelings, and experiences in the interviews via video recording. The researchers utilized the qualitative research design, but the approach used was grounded theory. The findings revealed the participants’ lived experiences on how to cope or overcome the transition stage during the work immersion program. They unanimously responded to the interview questions. And based on the themes that emerged from the testimonies of the Senior High School students, the classroom learners benefited a lot from authentic learning opportunity of immersion program. Work immersion provides the students the opportunity to learn and develop their skills/ competencies related to the field of specialization. The hands-on training provides them simulation of work. They realized that theoretical learning in school is not enough to be equipped to work. Immersion program also provides venue for values and standard transformation. Senior High School students felt a high demand of self-confidence at the beginning of their race. Good thing, self-esteem of an individual helps bring out one’s potential at its best. Students find it challenging to get along with people in all ages. But, the endeavour absolutely helps them to grow maturely. Participants also realized that it’s not easy to deal with time pressure. Hence, the immersion program taught them to learn about time management. Part of the best training is to expose the learners to the harsh reality. Despite of the things that the school had taught them, still, students realized that they are not yet ready to deal with the demands of work. Furthermore, they also found out that they need to develop an interpersonal skill to improve their human relationships.

Keywords: grounded theory, lived experiences, senior high school, work immersion

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547 Numerical Modelling of Shear Zone and Its Implications on Slope Instability at Letšeng Diamond Open Pit Mine, Lesotho

Authors: M. Ntšolo, D. Kalumba, N. Lefu, G. Letlatsa

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Rock mass damage due to shear tectonic activity has been investigated largely in geoscience where fluid transport is of major interest. However, little has been studied on the effect of shear zones on rock mass behavior and its impact on stability of rock slopes. At Letšeng Diamonds open pit mine in Lesotho, the shear zone composed of sheared kimberlite material, calcite and altered basalt is forming part of the haul ramp into the main pit cut 3. The alarming rate at which the shear zone is deteriorating has triggered concerns about both local and global stability of pit the walls. This study presents the numerical modelling of the open pit slope affected by shear zone at Letšeng Diamond Mine (LDM). Analysis of the slope involved development of the slope model by using a two-dimensional finite element code RS2. Interfaces between shear zone and host rock were represented by special joint elements incorporated in the finite element code. The analysis of structural geological mapping data provided a good platform to understand the joint network. Major joints including shear zone were incorporated into the model for simulation. This approach proved successful by demonstrating that continuum modelling can be used to evaluate evolution of stresses, strain, plastic yielding and failure mechanisms that are consistent with field observations. Structural control due to geological shear zone structure proved to be important in its location, size and orientation. Furthermore, the model analyzed slope deformation and sliding possibility along shear zone interfaces. This type of approach can predict shear zone deformation and failure mechanism, hence mitigation strategies can be deployed for safety of human lives and property within mine pits.

Keywords: numerical modeling, open pit mine, shear zone, slope stability

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546 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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545 Fertilizer Value of Nitrogen Captured from Poultry Facilities Using Ammonia Scrubbers

Authors: Philip A. Moore Jr., Jerry Martin, Hong Li

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Research has shown that over half of the nitrogen (N) excreted from broiler chickens is emitted to the atmosphere before the manure is removed from the barns, resulting in air and water pollution, as well as the loss of a valuable fertilizer resource. The objective of this study was to determine the fertilizer efficiency of N captured from the exhaust air from poultry houses using acid scrubbers. This research was conducted using 24 plots located on a Captina silt loam soil. There were six treatments: (1) unfertilized control, (2) aluminum sulfate (alum) scrubber solution, (3) potassium bisulfate scrubber solution, (4) sodium bisulfate scrubber solution, (5) sulfuric acid scrubber solution and (6) ammonium nitrate fertilizer dissolved in water. There were four replications per treatment in a randomized block design. The scrubber solutions were obtained from acid scrubbers attached to exhaust fans on commercial broiler houses. All N sources were applied at an application rate equivalent to 112 kg N ha⁻¹. Forage yields were measured five times throughout the growing season. Five months after the fertilizer sources were applied, a rainfall simulation study was conducted to determine the potential effects on phosphorus (P) runoff. Forage yields were significantly higher in plots fertilized with scrubber solutions from potassium bisulfate and sodium bisulfate than plots fertilized with scrubber solutions made from alum or sulfuric acid or ammonium nitrate, which were higher than the controls (7.61, 7.46, 6.87, 6.72, 6.45, and 5.12 Mg ha ⁻¹, respectively). Forage N uptake followed similar trends as yields. Phosphorus runoff and water soluble P was significantly lower in plots fertilized with the scrubber solutions made from aluminum sulfate. This study demonstrates that N captured using ammonia scrubbers is as good or possibly better than commercial ammonium nitrate fertilizer.

Keywords: air quality, ammonia emissions, nitrogen fertilizer, poultry

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544 Numerical Investigation of Fluid Outflow through a Retinal Hole after Scleral Buckling

Authors: T. Walczak, J. K. Grabski, P. Fritzkowski, M. Stopa

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Objectives of the study are i) to perform numerical simulations that permit an analysis of the dynamics of subretinal fluid when an implant has induced scleral intussusception and ii) assess the impact of the physical parameters of the model on the flow rate. Computer simulations were created using finite element method (FEM) based on a model that takes into account the interaction of a viscous fluid (subretinal fluid) with a hyperelastic body (retina). The purpose of the calculation was to investigate the dependence of the flow rate of subretinal fluid through a hole in the retina on different factors such as viscosity of subretinal fluid, material parameters of the retina, and the offset of the implant from the retina’s hole. These simulations were performed for different speeds of eye movement that reflect the behavior of the eye when reading, REM, and saccadic movements. Similar to other works in the field of subretinal fluid flow, it was assumed stationary, single sided, forced fluid flow in the considered area simulating the subretinal space. Additionally, a hyperelastic material model of the retina and parameterized geometry of the considered model was adopted. The calculations also examined the influence the direction of the force of gravity due to the position of the patient’s head on the trend of outflow of fluid. The simulations revealed that fluid outflow from the retina becomes significant with eyeball movement speed of 100°/sec. This speed is greater than in the case of reading but is four times less than saccadic movement. The increase of viscosity of the fluid increased beneficial effect. Further, the simulation results suggest that moderate eye movement speed is optimal and that the conventional prescription of the avoidance of routine eye movement following retinal detachment surgery should be relaxed. Additionally, to verify numerical results, some calculations were repeated with use of meshless method (method of fundamental solutions), which is relatively fast and easy to implement. The paper has been supported by 02/21/DSPB/3477 grant.

Keywords: CFD simulations, FEM analysis, meshless method, retinal detachment

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543 Vehicles Analysis, Assessment and Redesign Related to Ergonomics and Human Factors

Authors: Susana Aragoneses Garrido

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Every day, the roads are scenery of numerous accidents involving vehicles, producing thousands of deaths and serious injuries all over the world. Investigations have revealed that Human Factors (HF) are one of the main causes of road accidents in modern societies. Distracted driving (including external or internal aspects of the vehicle), which is considered as a human factor, is a serious and emergent risk to road safety. Consequently, a further analysis regarding this issue is essential due to its transcendence on today’s society. The objectives of this investigation are the detection and assessment of the HF in order to provide solutions (including a better vehicle design), which might mitigate road accidents. The methodology of the project is divided in different phases. First, a statistical analysis of public databases is provided between Spain and The UK. Second, data is classified in order to analyse the major causes involved in road accidents. Third, a simulation between different paths and vehicles is presented. The causes related to the HF are assessed by Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). Fourth, different car models are evaluated using the Rapid Upper Body Assessment (RULA). Additionally, the JACK SIEMENS PLM tool is used with the intention of evaluating the Human Factor causes and providing the redesign of the vehicles. Finally, improvements in the car design are proposed with the intention of reducing the implication of HF in traffic accidents. The results from the statistical analysis, the simulations and the evaluations confirm that accidents are an important issue in today’s society, especially the accidents caused by HF resembling distractions. The results explore the reduction of external and internal HF through the global analysis risk of vehicle accidents. Moreover, the evaluation of the different car models using RULA method and the JACK SIEMENS PLM prove the importance of having a good regulation of the driver’s seat in order to avoid harmful postures and therefore distractions. For this reason, a car redesign is proposed for the driver to acquire the optimum position and consequently reducing the human factors in road accidents.

Keywords: analysis vehicles, asssesment, ergonomics, car redesign

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542 Objective Assessment of the Evolution of Microplastic Contamination in Sediments from a Vast Coastal Area

Authors: Vanessa Morgado, Ricardo Bettencourt da Silva, Carla Palma

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The environmental pollution by microplastics is well recognized. Microplastics were already detected in various matrices from distinct environmental compartments worldwide, some from remote areas. Various methodologies and techniques have been used to determine microplastic in such matrices, for instance, sediment samples from the ocean bottom. In order to determine microplastics in a sediment matrix, the sample is typically sieved through a 5 mm mesh, digested to remove the organic matter, and density separated to isolate microplastics from the denser part of the sediment. The physical analysis of microplastic consists of visual analysis under a stereomicroscope to determine particle size, colour, and shape. The chemical analysis is performed by an infrared spectrometer coupled to a microscope (micro-FTIR), allowing to the identification of the chemical composition of microplastic, i.e., the type of polymer. Creating legislation and policies to control and manage (micro)plastic pollution is essential to protect the environment, namely the coastal areas. The regulation is defined from the known relevance and trends of the pollution type. This work discusses the assessment of contamination trends of a 700 km² oceanic area affected by contamination heterogeneity, sampling representativeness, and the uncertainty of the analysis of collected samples. The methodology developed consists of objectively identifying meaningful variations of microplastic contamination by the Monte Carlo simulation of all uncertainty sources. This work allowed us to unequivocally conclude that the contamination level of the studied area did not vary significantly between two consecutive years (2018 and 2019) and that PET microplastics are the major type of polymer. The comparison of contamination levels was performed for a 99% confidence level. The developed know-how is crucial for the objective and binding determination of microplastic contamination in relevant environmental compartments.

Keywords: measurement uncertainty, micro-ATR-FTIR, microplastics, ocean contamination, sampling uncertainty

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541 Zero Energy Buildings in Hot-Humid Tropical Climates: Boundaries of the Energy Optimization Grey Zone

Authors: Nakul V. Naphade, Sandra G. L. Persiani, Yew Wah Wong, Pramod S. Kamath, Avinash H. Anantharam, Hui Ling Aw, Yann Grynberg

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Achieving zero-energy targets in existing buildings is known to be a difficult task requiring important cuts in the building energy consumption, which in many cases clash with the functional necessities of the building wherever the on-site energy generation is unable to match the overall energy consumption. Between the building’s consumption optimization limit and the energy, target stretches a case-specific optimization grey zone, which requires tailored intervention and enhanced user’s commitment. In the view of the future adoption of more stringent energy-efficiency targets in the context of hot-humid tropical climates, this study aims to define the energy optimization grey zone by assessing the energy-efficiency limit in the state-of-the-art typical mid- and high-rise full AC office buildings, through the integration of currently available technologies. Energy models of two code-compliant generic office-building typologies were developed as a baseline, a 20-storey ‘high-rise’ and a 7-storey ‘mid-rise’. Design iterations carried out on the energy models with advanced market ready technologies in lighting, envelope, plug load management and ACMV systems and controls, lead to a representative energy model of the current maximum technical potential. The simulations showed that ZEB targets could be achieved in fully AC buildings under an average of seven floors only by compromising on energy-intense facilities (as full AC, unlimited power-supply, standard user behaviour, etc.). This paper argues that drastic changes must be made in tropical buildings to span the energy optimization grey zone and achieve zero energy. Fully air-conditioned areas must be rethought, while smart technologies must be integrated with an aggressive involvement and motivation of the users to synchronize with the new system’s energy savings goal.

Keywords: energy simulation, office building, tropical climate, zero energy buildings

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540 Exploring the Design of Prospective Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors through a Comprehensive Approach of Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship Study, Molecular Docking, and Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Authors: Mouna Baassi, Mohamed Moussaoui, Sanchaita Rajkhowa, Hatim Soufi, Said Belaaouad

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The objective of this paper is to address the challenging task of targeting Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 Reverse Transcriptase (HIV-1 RT) in the treatment of AIDS. Reverse Transcriptase inhibitors (RTIs) have limitations due to the development of Reverse Transcriptase mutations that lead to treatment resistance. In this study, a combination of statistical analysis and bioinformatics tools was adopted to develop a mathematical model that relates the structure of compounds to their inhibitory activities against HIV-1 Reverse Transcriptase. Our approach was based on a series of compounds recognized for their HIV-1 RT enzymatic inhibitory activities. These compounds were designed via software, with their descriptors computed using multiple tools. The most statistically promising model was chosen, and its domain of application was ascertained. Furthermore, compounds exhibiting comparable biological activity to existing drugs were identified as potential inhibitors of HIV-1 RT. The compounds underwent evaluation based on their chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion, toxicity properties, and adherence to Lipinski's rule. Molecular docking techniques were employed to examine the interaction between the Reverse Transcriptase (Wild Type and Mutant Type) and the ligands, including a known drug available in the market. Molecular dynamics simulations were also conducted to assess the stability of the RT-ligand complexes. Our results reveal some of the new compounds as promising candidates for effectively inhibiting HIV-1 Reverse Transcriptase, matching the potency of the established drug. This necessitates further experimental validation. This study, beyond its immediate results, provides a methodological foundation for future endeavors aiming to discover and design new inhibitors targeting HIV-1 Reverse Transcriptase.

Keywords: QSAR, ADMET properties, molecular docking, molecular dynamics simulation, reverse transcriptase inhibitors, HIV type 1

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539 Lateral Torsional Buckling: Tests on Glued Laminated Timber Beams

Authors: Vera Wilden, Benno Hoffmeister, Markus Feldmann

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Glued laminated timber (glulam) is a preferred choice for long span girders, e.g., for gyms or storage halls. While the material provides sufficient strength to resist the bending moments, large spans lead to increased slenderness of such members and to a higher susceptibility to stability issues, in particular to lateral torsional buckling (LTB). Rules for the determination of the ultimate LTB resistance are provided by Eurocode 5. The verifications of the resistance may be performed using the so called equivalent member method or by means of theory 2nd order calculations (direct method), considering equivalent imperfections. Both methods have significant limitations concerning their applicability; the equivalent member method is limited to rather simple cases; the direct method is missing detailed provisions regarding imperfections and requirements for numerical modeling. In this paper, the results of a test series on slender glulam beams in three- and four-point bending are presented. The tests were performed in an innovative, newly developed testing rig, allowing for a very precise definition of loading and boundary conditions. The load was introduced by a hydraulic jack, which follows the lateral deformation of the beam by means of a servo-controller, coupled with the tested member and keeping the load direction vertically. The deformation-controlled tests allowed for the identification of the ultimate limit state (governed by elastic stability) and the corresponding deformations. Prior to the tests, the structural and geometrical imperfections were determined and used later in the numerical models. After the stability tests, the nearly undamaged members were tested again in pure bending until reaching the ultimate moment resistance of the cross-section. These results, accompanied by numerical studies, were compared to resistance values obtained using both methods according to Eurocode 5.

Keywords: experimental tests, glued laminated timber, lateral torsional buckling, numerical simulation

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538 Designed Purine Molecules and in-silico Evaluation of Aurora Kinase Inhibition in Breast Cancer

Authors: Pooja Kumari, Anandkumar Tengli

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Aurora kinase enzyme, a protein on overexpression, leads to metastasis and is extremely important for women’s health in terms of prevention or treatment. While creating a targeted technique, the aim of the work is to design purine molecules that inhibit in aurora kinase enzyme and helps to suppress breast cancer. Purine molecules attached to an amino acid in DNA block protein synthesis or halt the replication and metastasis caused by the aurora kinase enzyme. Various protein related to the overexpression of aurora protein was docked with purine molecule using Biovia Drug Discovery, the perpetual software. Various parameters like X-ray crystallographic structure, presence of ligand, Ramachandran plot, resolution, etc., were taken into consideration for selecting the target protein. A higher negative binding scored molecule has been taken for simulation studies. According to the available research and computational analyses, purine compounds may be powerful enough to demonstrate a greater affinity for the aurora target. Despite being clinically effective now, purines were originally meant to fight breast cancer by inhibiting the aurora kinase enzyme. In in-silico studies, it is observed that purine compounds have a moderate to high potency compared to other molecules, and our research into the literature revealed that purine molecules have a lower risk of side effects. The research involves the design, synthesis, and identification of active purine molecules against breast cancer. Purines are structurally similar to the normal metabolites of adenine and guanine; hence interfere/compete with protein synthesis and suppress the abnormal proliferation of cells/tissues. As a result, purine target metastasis cells and stop the growth of kinase; purine derivatives bind with DNA and aurora protein which may stop the growth of protein or inhibits replication and stop metastasis of overexpressed aurora kinase enzyme.

Keywords: aurora kinases, in silico studies, medicinal chemistry, combination therapies, chronic cancer, clinical translation

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537 Renovate to nZEB of an Existing Building in the Mediterranean Area: Analysis of the Use of Renewable Energy Sources for the HVAC System

Authors: M. Baratieri, M. Beccali, S. Corradino, B. Di Pietra, C. La Grassa, F. Monteleone, G. Morosinotto, G. Puglisi

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The energy renovation of existing buildings represents an important opportunity to increase the decarbonization and the sustainability of urban environments. In this context, the work carried out has the objective of demonstrating the technical and economic feasibility of an energy renovate of a public building destined for offices located on the island of Lampedusa in the Mediterranean Sea. By applying the Italian transpositions of European Directives 2010/31/EU and 2009/28/EC, the building has been renovated from the current energy requirements of 111.7 kWh/m² to 16.4 kWh/m². The result achieved classifies the building as nZEB (nearly Zero Energy Building) according to the Italian national definition. The analysis was carried out using in parallel a quasi-stationary software, normally used in the professional field, and a dynamic simulation model often used in the academic world. The proposed interventions cover the components of the building’s envelope, the heating-cooling system and the supply of energy from renewable sources. In these latter points, the analysis has focused more on assessing two aspects that affect the supply of renewable energy. The first concerns the use of advanced logic control systems for air conditioning units in order to increase photovoltaic self-consumption. With these adjustments, a considerable increase in photovoltaic self-consumption and a decrease in the electricity exported to the Island's electricity grid have been obtained. The second point concerned the evaluation of the building's energy classification considering the real efficiency of the heating-cooling plant. Normally the energy plants have lower operational efficiency than the designed one due to multiple reasons; the decrease in the energy classification of the building for this factor has been quantified. This study represents an important example for the evaluation of the best interventions for the energy renovation of buildings in the Mediterranean Climate and a good description of the correct methodology to evaluate the resulting improvements.

Keywords: heat pumps, HVAC systems, nZEB renovation, renewable energy sources

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536 The Shared Breath Project: Inhabiting Each Other’s Words and Being

Authors: Beverly Redman

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With the Theatre Season of 2020-2021 cancelled due to COVID-19 at Purdue University, Fort Wayne, IN, USA, faculty directors found themselves scrambling to create theatre production opportunities for their students in the Department of Theatre. Redman, Chair of the Department, found her community to be suffering from anxieties brought on by a confluence of issues: the global-scale Covid-19 Pandemic, the United States’ Black Lives Matter protests erupting in cities all across the country and the coming Presidential election, arguably the most important and most contentious in the country’s history. Redman wanted to give her students the opportunity to speak not only on these issues but also to be able to record who they were at this time in their personal lives, as well as in this broad socio-political context. She also wanted to invite them into an experience of feeling empathy, too, at a time when empathy in this world seems to be sorely lacking. Returning to a mode of Devising Theatre she had used with community groups in the past, in which storytelling and re-enactment of participants’ life events combined with oral history documentation practices, Redman planned The Shared Breath Project. The process involved three months of workshops, in which participants alternated between theatre exercises and oral history collection and documentation activities as a way of generating original material for a theatre production. The goal of the first half of the project was for each participant to produce a solo piece in the form of a monologue after many generations of potential material born out of gammes, improvisations, interviews and the like. Along the way, many film and audio clips recorded the process of each person’s written documentation—documentation prepared by the subject him or herself but also by others in the group assigned to listen, watch and record. Then, in the second half of the project—and only once each participant had taken their own contributions from raw improvisatory self-presentations and through the stages of composition and performative polish, participants then exchanged their pieces. The second half of the project involved taking on each other’s words, mannerisms, gestures, melodic and rhythmic speech patterns and inhabiting them through the rehearsal process as their own, thus the title, The Shared Breath Project. Here, in stage two the acting challenges evolved to be those of capturing the other and becoming the other through accurate mimicry that embraces Denis Diderot’s concept of the Paradox of Acting, in that the actor is both seeming and being simultaneous. This paper shares the carefully documented process of making the live-streamed theatre production that resulted from these workshops, writing processes and rehearsals, and forming, The Shared Breath Project, which ultimately took the students’ Realist, life-based pieces and edited them into a single unified theatre production. The paper also utilizes research on the Paradox of Acting, putting a Post-Structuralist spin on Diderot’s theory. Here, the paper suggests the limitations of inhabiting the other by allowing that the other is always already a thing impenetrable but nevertheless worthy of unceasing empathetic, striving and delving in an epoch in which slow, careful attention to our fellows is in short supply.

Keywords: otherness, paradox of acting, oral history theatre, devised theatre, political theatre, community-based theatre, peoples’ theatre

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535 A Molecular Dynamic Simulation Study to Explore Role of Chain Length in Predicting Useful Characteristic Properties of Commodity and Engineering Polymers

Authors: Lokesh Soni, Sushanta Kumar Sethi, Gaurav Manik

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This work attempts to use molecular simulations to create equilibrated structures of a range of commercially used polymers. Generated equilibrated structures for polyvinyl acetate (isotactic), polyvinyl alcohol (atactic), polystyrene, polyethylene, polyamide 66, poly dimethyl siloxane, poly carbonate, poly ethylene oxide, poly amide 12, natural rubber, poly urethane, and polycarbonate (bisphenol-A) and poly ethylene terephthalate are employed to estimate the correct chain length that will correctly predict the chain parameters and properties. Further, the equilibrated structures are used to predict some properties like density, solubility parameter, cohesive energy density, surface energy, and Flory-Huggins interaction parameter. The simulated densities for polyvinyl acetate, polyvinyl alcohol, polystyrene, polypropylene, and polycarbonate are 1.15 g/cm3, 1.125 g/cm3, 1.02 g/cm3, 0.84 g/cm3 and 1.223 g/cm3 respectively are found to be in good agreement with the available literature estimates. However, the critical repeating units or the degree of polymerization after which the solubility parameter showed saturation were 15, 20, 25, 10 and 20 respectively. This also indicates that such properties that dictate the miscibility of two or more polymers in their blends are strongly dependent on the chosen polymer or its characteristic properties. An attempt has been made to correlate such properties with polymer properties like Kuhn length, free volume and the energy term which plays a vital role in predicting the mentioned properties. These results help us to screen and propose a useful library which may be used by the research groups in estimating the polymer properties using the molecular simulations of chains with the predicted critical lengths. The library shall help to obviate the need for researchers to spend efforts in finding the critical chain length needed for simulating the mentioned polymer properties.

Keywords: Kuhn length, Flory Huggins interaction parameter, cohesive energy density, free volume

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534 Development of Power System Stability by Reactive Power Planning in Wind Power Plant With Doubley Fed Induction Generators Generator

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Mohammadi Sanjani, Ashknaz Oraee, Oriol Gomis Bellmunt, Vinicius Albernaz Lacerda Freitas

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The use of distributed and renewable sources in power systems has grown significantly, recently. One the most popular sources are wind farms which have grown massively. However, ¬wind farms are connected to the grid, this can cause problems such as reduced voltage stability, frequency fluctuations and reduced dynamic stability. Variable speed generators (asynchronous) are used due to the uncontrollability of wind speed specially Doubley Fed Induction Generators (DFIG). The most important disadvantage of DFIGs is its sensitivity to voltage drop. In the case of faults, a large volume of reactive power is induced therefore, use of FACTS devices such as SVC and STATCOM are suitable for improving system output performance. They increase the capacity of lines and also passes network fault conditions. In this paper, in addition to modeling the reactive power control system in a DFIG with converter, FACTS devices have been used in a DFIG wind turbine to improve the stability of the power system containing two synchronous sources. In the following paper, recent optimal control systems have been designed to minimize fluctuations caused by system disturbances, for FACTS devices employed. For this purpose, a suitable method for the selection of nine parameters for MPSH-phase-post-phase compensators of reactive power compensators is proposed. The design algorithm is formulated ¬¬as an optimization problem searching for optimal parameters in the controller. Simulation results show that the proposed controller Improves the stability of the network and the fluctuations are at desired speed.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, optimization wind power plant, stability, reactive power compensator, double-feed induction generator, optimal control, genetic algorithm

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533 The Control of Wall Thickness Tolerance during Pipe Purchase Stage Based on Reliability Approach

Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

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Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

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532 Pavement Management for a Metropolitan Area: A Case Study of Montreal

Authors: Luis Amador Jimenez, Md. Shohel Amin

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Pavement performance models are based on projections of observed traffic loads, which makes uncertain to study funding strategies in the long run if history does not repeat. Neural networks can be used to estimate deterioration rates but the learning rate and momentum have not been properly investigated, in addition, economic evolvement could change traffic flows. This study addresses both issues through a case study for roads of Montreal that simulates traffic for a period of 50 years and deals with the measurement error of the pavement deterioration model. Travel demand models are applied to simulate annual average daily traffic (AADT) every 5 years. Accumulated equivalent single axle loads (ESALs) are calculated from the predicted AADT and locally observed truck distributions combined with truck factors. A back propagation Neural Network (BPN) method with a Generalized Delta Rule (GDR) learning algorithm is applied to estimate pavement deterioration models capable of overcoming measurement errors. Linear programming of lifecycle optimization is applied to identify M&R strategies that ensure good pavement condition while minimizing the budget. It was found that CAD 150 million is the minimum annual budget to good condition for arterial and local roads in Montreal. Montreal drivers prefer the use of public transportation for work and education purposes. Vehicle traffic is expected to double within 50 years, ESALS are expected to double the number of ESALs every 15 years. Roads in the island of Montreal need to undergo a stabilization period for about 25 years, a steady state seems to be reached after.

Keywords: pavement management system, traffic simulation, backpropagation neural network, performance modeling, measurement errors, linear programming, lifecycle optimization

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531 Preliminary Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Design for Hydrogen Storage Using Netting Analysis and American Society of Mechanical Engineers Section X

Authors: Natasha Botha, Gary Corderely, Helen M. Inglis

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With the move to cleaner energy applications the transport industry is working towards on-board hydrogen, or compressed natural gas-fuelled vehicles. A popular method for storage is to use composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV) because of their high strength to weight ratios. The proper design of these COPVs are according to international standards; this study aims to provide a preliminary design for a 350 Bar Type IV COPV (i.e. a polymer liner with a composite overwrap). Netting analysis, a popular analytical approach, is used as a first step to generate an initial design concept for the composite winding. This design is further improved upon by following the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel standards, Section X: Fibre-reinforced composite pressure vessels. A design program based on these two approaches is developed using Python. A numerical model of a burst test simulation is developed based on the two approaches and compared. The results indicate that the netting analysis provides a good preliminary design, while the ASME-based design is more robust and accurate as it includes a better approximation of the material behaviour. Netting analysis is an easy method to follow when considering an initial concept design for the composite winding when not all the material characteristics are known. Once these characteristics have been fully defined with experimental testing, an ASME-based design should always be followed to ensure that all designs conform to international standards and practices. Future work entails more detailed numerical testing of the design for improvement, this will include the boss design. Once finalised prototype manufacturing and experimental testing will be conducted, and the results used to improve on the COPV design.

Keywords: composite overwrapped pressure vessel, netting analysis, design, American Society of Mechanical Engineers section x, fiber-reinforced, hydrogen storage

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530 Real-Time Kinetic Analysis of Labor-Intensive Repetitive Tasks Using Depth-Sensing Camera

Authors: Sudip Subedi, Nipesh Pradhananga

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The musculoskeletal disorders, also known as MSDs, are common in construction workers. MSDs include lower back injuries, knee injuries, spinal injuries, and joint injuries, among others. Since most construction tasks are still manual, construction workers often need to perform repetitive, labor-intensive tasks. And they need to stay in the same or an awkward posture for an extended time while performing such tasks. It induces significant stress to the joints and spines, increasing the risk of getting into MSDs. Manual monitoring of such tasks is virtually impossible with the handful of safety managers in a construction site. This paper proposes a methodology for performing kinetic analysis of the working postures while performing such tasks in real-time. Skeletal of different workers will be tracked using a depth-sensing camera while performing the task to create training data for identifying the best posture. For this, the kinetic analysis will be performed using a human musculoskeletal model in an open-source software system (OpenSim) to visualize the stress induced by essential joints. The “safe posture” inducing lowest stress on essential joints will be computed for different actions involved in the task. The identified “safe posture” will serve as a basis for real-time monitoring and identification of awkward and unsafe postural behaviors of construction workers. Besides, the temporal simulation will be carried out to find the associated long-term effect of repetitive exposure to such observed postures. This will help to create awareness in workers about potential future health hazards and encourage them to work safely. Furthermore, the collected individual data can then be used to provide need-based personalized training to the construction workers.

Keywords: construction workers’ safety, depth sensing camera, human body kinetics, musculoskeletal disorders, real time monitoring, repetitive labor-intensive tasks

Procedia PDF Downloads 111