Search results for: ANOVA score model

Authors: Jeevan Balaji, Shreyas Chigurupati

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Pneumatic gripper use compressed air to operate its actuators (fingers). Unlike the conventional metallic gripper, a soft pneumatic actuator (SPA) can be used for relocating fragile objects. An added advantage for this gripper is that the pressure exerted on the object can be varied by changing the dimensions of the air chambers and also by the number of chambers. SPAs have many benefits over conventional robots in the military, medical fields because of their compliance nature and are easily produced using the 3D printing process. In the paper, SPA is proposed to perform pick and place tasks. A design was developed for the actuators, which is convenient for gripping any fragile objects. Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) is used for 3D printing the actuators. The actuator model behaves differently as the parameters such as its chamber height, number of chambers change. A detailed FEM model of the actuator is drafted for different pressure inputs using ABAQUS CAE software, and a safe loading pressure range is found.

Keywords: soft robotics, pneumatic actuator, design and modelling, bending analysis

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Authors: Amit Ghosh, Chanchal Kundu

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Recently, the notion of past cumulative inaccuracy (CPI) measure has been proposed in the literature as a generalization of cumulative past entropy (CPE) in univariate as well as bivariate setup. In this paper, we introduce the notion of CPI of order α (alpha) and study the proposed measure for conditionally specified models of two components failed at different time instants called generalized conditional CPI (GCCPI). We provide some bounds using usual stochastic order and investigate several properties of GCCPI. The effect of monotone transformation on this proposed measure has also been examined. Furthermore, we characterize some bivariate distributions under the assumption of conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model. Moreover, the role of GCCPI in reliability modeling has also been investigated for a real-life problem.

Keywords: cumulative past inaccuracy, marginal and conditional past lifetimes, conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model, usual stochastic order

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Authors: H. Hafez, A. Mekkawy, R. Rostom

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Around 10% of the world’s CO₂ emissions could be attributed to the operational energy of buildings; that is why more research is directed towards the use of rammed earth walls which is claimed to have enhanced thermal properties compared to conventional building materials. The objective of this paper is to outline how the thermal performance of rammed earth walls compares to conventional reinforced concrete skeleton and red brick in-fill walls. For this sake, the indoor temperature and relative humidity of a classroom built with rammed earth walls and a vaulted red brick roof in the area of Behbeit, Giza, Egypt were measured hourly over 6 months using smart sensors. These parameters for the rammed earth walls were later also compared against the values obtained using a 'DesignBuilder v5' model to verify the model assumptions. The thermal insulation of rammed earth walls was found to be 30% better than this of the redbrick infill, and the recorded data were found to be almost 90% similar to the modelled values.

Keywords: rammed earth, thermal insulation, indoor air quality, design builder

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Authors: Mohammad Zainie Bin Hassan

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Background: Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a complication commonly seen among men with diabetes which can be assessed based upon International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5) questionnaire. Creatinine level is a blood test that indicates kidney functionality. Object: To evaluate the association between ED, determined by the IIEF-5scores and Creatinine level in diabetic men attending Temerloh Health Clinic, Pahang, Malaysia.Hence, to identify raising Creatinine level related with ED or not. Methods: All married diabetic patients will be investigated face to face after consented for answering the IIEF-5 questionnaire. Creatinine level will be taken by using standard method.Patients with no sexual partner, refuse to answer the questionnaire, cancer, stroke, heart disease and language barrier will be excluded.Data obtained from IIEF-5 score and Creatinine level will be analyzed by using Pearson correlation. All statistical value determined by p=0.05. ED will be categorized accordingly to IIEF-5 scores: no ED (22-25), mild (17-21), moderate (12-16), severe (8-11) and very severe (1-7). Results: A total of 450 patients were investigated with 385 patients were included (85.6% respondant rate) and 65 patients were excluded in this study with age range from 29 to 85 years old. 7% had no ED, 28% mild ED, 34% moderate ED, 16% severe ED and 15% had very severe ED. There was a significant negative correlation between Creatinine level and IIEF-5 scores (r=-0.218, p <0.001). This result implicated that poor kidney function which indicated by high Creatinine level associated significantly with erectile dysfunction. 93% had ED with a different range of severity which triggers for appropriate aggressive ED management among diabetics. Conclusion: The high level of Creatinine is associated with erectile dysfunction among diabetics in Temerloh Health Clinic.

Keywords: correlation, creatinine level, erectile dysfunction, ED, diabetes

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Authors: Razak Rahmat, Azizah Ahmad, Rafidah Razak, Roshidi Din, Azizi Abas

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Telecenter is a place where communities can access computers, the Internet, and other digital technologies to enable them to gather information, create, learn, and communicate with others. However, previous studies found that sustainability issues related to economic, political and institutional, social and technology is one of the major problem faced by the telecenter. Based on that problem, this research is planning to design a possible solution on rural telecenters sustainability with the support of business intelligence (BI). The empirical study will be conducted through the qualitative and quantitative method including interviews and observations with a range of stakeholders including ministry officers, telecenters managers and operators. Result from the data collection will be analyze using the causal modeling approach of SEM SmartPLS for the validity. The expected finding from this research is the Business Intelligent Requirement Model as a guild for sustainability of the rural telecenters.

Keywords: Rural ICT Telecenter(RICTT), business intelligence, sustainability, requirement analysis modal

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Authors: Ainolnaim Azizol, Valerie Ross

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Music is as old as mankind and rituals using music such as Kavadi have been associated with social, cultural, and spiritual practices in many traditional and modern societies. Recent literature has provided scientific evidence that music affects psychological and physical changes through stimulation of brainwave. Despite such advances, the scientific study of the sonic qualities peculiar to traditional instruments and how it impacts on ritualistic activities is still lacking. This study addresses one such phenomenon. Devotees in Kavadi rituals are known to be in a state of trance state and do not experience pain nor suffer injury despite the hundreds of needles pierced through their skins. Although scientists have sought to understand how this is possible, lesser is known about the music that is used to prepare devotees to enter into the trance state. This study fills this gap of knowledge by providing scientific evidence through the identification and mapping of the sonic spectrum or sound fingerprint of the instruments and the repertoire used in these ritualistic forms in their ethnographic environment and in audio-controlled situations. The objectives are to identify and categorize the different types of traditional music used in Kavadi rituals; to record, transcribe and digitally score the musical repertoire used in the oral tradition of Kavadi rituals; to map the sonic spectrum of ritual music using spectromography and advanced music analytical software a mixed methodology will be used. This comprises ethnographic field studies using interviews, participant observation, audio-video recordings and audio-methodology using spectromography and advanced audio-technology for sonic mapping and the transcription of audio recordings into digital scores.

Keywords: sonic, traditional, ritual, Kavadi, music

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Authors: Sohail Ahmed, Ke Xing

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This research theoretically explored the evolution mechanism of enterprise technological innovation capability system (ETICS) from the perspective of complex adaptive systems (CAS). This research proposed an analytical framework for ETICS, its concepts, and theory by integrating CAS methodology into the management of the technological innovation capability of enterprises and discusses how to use the principles of complexity to analyze the composition, evolution, and realization of the technological innovation capabilities in complex dynamic environments. This paper introduces the concept and interaction of multi-agent, the theoretical background of CAS, and summarizes the sources of technological innovation, the elements of each subject, and the main clusters of adaptive interactions and innovation activities. The concept of multi-agents is applied through the linkages of enterprises, research institutions, and government agencies with the leading enterprises in industrial settings. The study was exploratory and based on CAS theory. Theoretical model is built by considering technological and innovation literature from foundational to state of the art projects of technological enterprises. On this basis, the theoretical model is developed to measure the evolution mechanism of the enterprise's technological innovation capability system. This paper concludes that the main characteristics for evolution in technological systems are based on the enterprise’s research and development personnel, investments in technological processes, and innovation resources are responsible for the evolution of enterprise technological innovation performance. The research specifically enriched the application process of technological innovation in institutional networks related to enterprises.

Keywords: complex adaptive system, echo model, enterprise technological innovation capability system, research institutions, multi-agents

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Authors: Lovemore Motsi

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The rapid pace of technological innovation, along with a global fascination with the internet, continues to result in a dominating call to integrate internet technologies in institutions of learning. However, the pressing question remains – how can online in-service training for teachers, support quality and success in professional development programmers. The aim of this study was to examine an integrated model that extended the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) with additional constructs – including attitude and behaviour intention – adopted from the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to answer the question. Data was collected from secondary school teachers at 10 selected schools in the Tshwane South district by means of the Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS v 23.0), and the collected data was analysed quantitatively. The findings are congruent with model testing under conditions of volitional usage behaviour. In this regard, the role of facilitating condition variables is insignificant as a determinant of usage behaviour. Social norm variables also proved to be a weak determinant of behavioural intentions. Findings demonstrate that effort expectancy is the key determinant of online INSET usage. Based on these findings, the variable social influence and facilitating conditions are important factors in ensuring the acceptance of online INSET among teachers in selected secondary schools in the Tshwane South district.

Keywords: unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT), teacher professional development, secondary schools, online INSET

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Authors: Zeynep Karakoc, Hasan Ilhan Mutaf

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Plaque removal efficacy of different dental brushes and mouth wash during fixed orthodontic appliance therapy was evaluated in this single-blind, crossover and prospective study. Thirty orthodontic patients aged 18 and over undergoing fixed appliance therapy at the end of leveling stage were divided into three groups. Subjects brushed their teeth with a toothbrush under standardized conditions for a period of 30 days prior to inter-dental care products. The same procedure was repeated each time with a different, randomly assigned inter-dental care products in a crossover design. (Inter-dental brush, powered inter-dental brush and mouth wash). At start and end of each removal period, plaque indexes of participants were scored. Each brush achieved statistically significant plaque removal; however, there were no statistical differences among groups for all surfaces of teeth when the plaque score was evaluated. The mouth wash group presented significant improvement in reduction of visible plaque on mesial and distal surfaces of posterior teeth. (-60.9 %, P< .001) Plaque removal for right and left side of mouth showed no significant differences within groups, only mouth wash was more efficient in right side than left side. It is concluded that effectiveness of plaque removal may not be related to the kind of inter-dental products directly. However, toothbrush when used with inter-dental care products is significantly better at removing plaque deposits from fixed appliance patients.

Keywords: orthodontics, dental care, brush, plaque

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Authors: Hemalatha Ganapathyswamy, Thirukkumar Subramani

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Celiac disease is an autoimmune response to dietary wheat gluten. Gluten is the main structure forming protein in bread and hence developing gluten-free bread is a technological challenge. The study aims at using nonwheat flours like barnyard millet and lentil flour to replace wheat in bread formulations. Other characteristics of these grains, such as high protein, soluble fiber, mineral content and bioactive components make them attractive alternatives to traditional gluten-free ingredients in the production of high protein, gluten-free bread. The composite flour formulations for the development of gluten-free bread were optimized using lentil flour (50 to 70 g), barnyard millet flour (0 to 30 g) and corn flour (0 to 30 g) by means of response surface methodology with various independent variables for physical, sensorial and nutritional characteristics. The optimized composite flour which had a desirability value of 0.517, included lentil flour –62.94 g, barnyard millet flour– 24.34 g and corn flour– 12.72 g with overall acceptability score 8.00/9.00. The optimized gluten-free bread formulation had high protein (14.99g/100g) and fiber (1.95g/100g) content. The glycemic index of the gluten-free bread was 54.58 rendering it as low glycemic which enhances the functional benefit of the gluten-free bread. Since the standardised gluten-free bread from barnyard millet and lentil flour are high protein, and gluten-free with low glycemic index, the product would serve as an ideal therapeutic food in the management of both celiac disease and diabetes mellitus with better nutritional value.

Keywords: gluten free bread, lentil, low glycemic index, response surface methodology

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Authors: Ibrahim M. I. Hamoda, Ahmed R. Z. Baghdadi, Mohammed K. Mohamed, Nawal A. Abu-Shady

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Background: Most of patients with vestibular dysfunction suffering from balance disorders, Abnormality in balance increase effort and exertion which affect the independency, so this study might be a guide in managing balance problem and consequently improve walking with less exertion and maximum function. Purpose: to analyze and discuss the effect of transcranial magnetic therapy on balance in patients with vestibular dysfunction. Methods: forty subjects from both sexes were classified to divided randomly into two equal groups; Group I study group: this group received transcranial magnetic therapy, with a selected physical therapy program for improving balance and vestibular disorders (Balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises) and group II (control group): this group received a selected physical therapy program as group I without transcranial magnetic therapy. This treatment procedure will be applied three times weekly for three months. The mean age was 54.53±3.44 and 55.33±2.32 years and BMI 35.7±3.03 and 35.73±1.03 kg/m2 for group I and II respectively. The Biodex Balance System, Berge balances scale (BBS) and brain MRI were used for assessment. Assessments were conducted before and after treatment. The treatment program for group I included balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises and pulsed magnetic therapy (Parameters used in the program of 20 minutes, Intensity 2 gausses, Frequency 1 Hz). This selected program was done in approximately one hour every other day for three month. The treatment program group II Patients received the same program as group A without transcranial magnetic therapy. Results: The One-way ANOVA revealed that there were no significant differences in BBS scores, overall balance index, Anterior / posterior balance index, Medial / lateral balance index and dynamic limits of stability between both groups. Moreover, the BBS scores increased and overall balance index, Anterior / posterior balance index, Medial / lateral balance index and dynamic limits of stability decreased significantly after treatment in group I and II compared with before treatment. Interpretation/Conclusion: Adding pulsed magnetic therapy to balance training, Cawthorne-Cooksey Exercises has no effect on static and dynamic balance in patients with balance problems due to benign positional paroxysmal vertigo.

Keywords: balance, transcranial magnetic therapy, vestibular dysfunction, biomechanic

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Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

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This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

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Authors: Gholamreza Ghodrati Amiri, Mojtaba Jafarian Abyaneh, Ali Zare Hosseinzadeh

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This paper presents an effective model updating strategy for damage localization and quantification in frames by defining damage detection problem as an optimization issue. A generalized version of the Modal Residual Force (MRF) is employed for presenting a new damage-sensitive cost function. Then, Grey Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm is utilized for solving suggested inverse problem and the global extremums are reported as damage detection results. The applicability of the presented method is investigated by studying different damage patterns on the benchmark problem of the IASC-ASCE, as well as a planar shear frame structure. The obtained results emphasize good performance of the method not only in free-noise cases, but also when the input data are contaminated with different levels of noises.

Keywords: frame, grey wolf optimization algorithm, modal residual force, structural damage detection

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Authors: Iman Farasat, Howard M. Salis

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Engineered genetic circuits reprogram cellular behavior to act as living computers with applications in detecting cancer, creating self-controlling artificial tissues, and dynamically regulating metabolic pathways. Phenemenological models are often used to simulate and design genetic circuit behavior towards a desired behavior. While such models assume that each circuit component’s function is modular and independent, even small changes in a circuit (e.g. a new promoter, a change in transcription factor expression level, or even a new media) can have significant effects on the circuit’s function. Here, we use statistical thermodynamics to account for the several factors that control transcriptional regulation in bacteria, and experimentally demonstrate the model’s accuracy across 825 measurements in several genetic contexts and hosts. We then employ our first principles model to design, experimentally construct, and characterize a family of signal amplifying genetic circuits (genetic OpAmps) that expand the dynamic range of cell sensors. To develop these models, we needed a new approach to measuring the in vivo binding free energies of transcription factors (TFs), a key ingredient of statistical thermodynamic models of gene regulation. We developed a new high-throughput assay to measure RNA polymerase and TF binding free energies, requiring the construction and characterization of only a few constructs and data analysis (Figure 1A). We experimentally verified the assay on 6 TetR-homolog repressors and a CRISPR/dCas9 guide RNA. We found that our binding free energy measurements quantitatively explains why changing TF expression levels alters circuit function. Altogether, by combining these measurements with our biophysical model of translation (the RBS Calculator) as well as other measurements (Figure 1B), our model can account for changes in TF binding sites, TF expression levels, circuit copy number, host genome size, and host growth rate (Figure 1C). Model predictions correctly accounted for how these 8 factors control a promoter’s transcription rate (Figure 1D). Using the model, we developed a design framework for engineering multi-promoter genetic circuits that greatly reduces the number of degrees of freedom (8 factors per promoter) to a single dimensionless unit. We propose the Ptashne (Pt) number to encapsulate the 8 co-dependent factors that control transcriptional regulation into a single number. Therefore, a single number controls a promoter’s output rather than these 8 co-dependent factors, and designing a genetic circuit with N promoters requires specification of only N Pt numbers. We demonstrate how to design genetic circuits in Pt number space by constructing and characterizing 15 2-repressor OpAmp circuits that act as signal amplifiers when within an optimal Pt region. We experimentally show that OpAmp circuits using different TFs and TF expression levels will only amplify the dynamic range of input signals when their corresponding Pt numbers are within the optimal region. Thus, the use of the Pt number greatly simplifies the genetic circuit design, particularly important as circuits employ more TFs to perform increasingly complex functions.

Keywords: transcription factor, synthetic biology, genetic circuit, biophysical model, binding energy measurement

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Authors: Somayeh Komeylian

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The direction of arrival (DoA) estimation is the crucial aspect of the radar technologies for detecting and dividing several signal sources. In this scenario, the antenna array output modeling involves numerous parameters including noise samples, signal waveform, signal directions, signal number, and signal to noise ratio (SNR), and thereby the methods of the DoA estimation rely heavily on the generalization characteristic for establishing a large number of the training data sets. Hence, we have analogously represented the two different optimization models of the DoA estimation; (1) the implementation of the decision directed acyclic graph (DDAG) for the multiclass least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and (2) the optimization method of the deep neural network (DNN) radial basis function (RBF). We have rigorously verified that the LS-SVM DDAG algorithm is capable of accurately classifying DoAs for the three classes. However, the accuracy and robustness of the DoA estimation are still highly sensitive to technological imperfections of the antenna arrays such as non-ideal array design and manufacture, array implementation, mutual coupling effect, and background radiation and thereby the method may fail in representing high precision for the DoA estimation. Therefore, this work has a further contribution on developing the DNN-RBF model for the DoA estimation for overcoming the limitations of the non-parametric and data-driven methods in terms of array imperfection and generalization. The numerical results of implementing the DNN-RBF model have confirmed the better performance of the DoA estimation compared with the LS-SVM algorithm. Consequently, we have analogously evaluated the performance of utilizing the two aforementioned optimization methods for the DoA estimation using the concept of the mean squared error (MSE).

Keywords: DoA estimation, Adaptive antenna array, Deep Neural Network, LS-SVM optimization model, Radial basis function, and MSE

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Authors: Eda Orhun

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Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: Mary Anne Roa

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Congestion in network occurs due to exceed in aggregate demand as compared to the accessible capacity of the resources. Network congestion will increase as network speed increases and new effective congestion control methods are needed, especially for today’s very high speed networks. To address this undeniably global issue, the study focuses on the development of a fuzzy-based congestion control model concerned with allocating the resources of a computer network such that the system can operate at an adequate performance level when the demand exceeds or is near the capacity of the resources. Fuzzy logic based models have proven capable of accurately representing a wide variety of processes. The model built is based on bandwidth, the aggregate incoming traffic and the waiting time. The theoretical analysis and simulation results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only good utilization but also low packet loss.

Keywords: congestion control, queue management, computer networks, fuzzy logic

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Authors: Puneet Katyal, Punit Kumar

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A great deal of efforts has been done in the field of thermal effects in electrohydrodynamic lubrication (TEHL) during the last five decades. The focus was primarily on the development of an efficient numerical scheme to deal with the computational challenges involved in the solution of TEHL model; however, some important aspects related to the accurate description of lubricant properties such as viscosity, rheology and thermal conductivity in EHL point contact analysis remain largely neglected. A few studies available in this regard are based upon highly complex mathematical models difficult to formulate and execute. Using a simplified thermal EHL model for point contacts, this work sheds some light on the importance of accurate characterization of the lubricant properties and demonstrates that the computed TEHL characteristics are highly sensitive to lubricant properties. It also emphasizes the use of appropriate mathematical models with experimentally determined parameters to account for correct lubricant behaviour.

Keywords: TEHL, shear thinning, rheology, conductivity

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Authors: Rahimah Abdulrahman, A. Eardle, Wilfred Alan, Abdel Hamid Soliman

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With the rapid development in technology, and advances in learning technologies, m-learning has begun to occupy a great part of our lives. The pace of the life getting together with the need for learning started mobile learning (m-learning) concept. In 2008, Saudi Arabia requested a national plan for the adoption of information technology (IT) across the country. Part of the recommendations of this plan concerns the implementation of mobile learning (m-learning) as well as their prospective applications to higher education within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The overall aim of the research is to explore the main issues that impact the deployment of m-learning in nursing institutes in Saudi Arabia, at the Armed Force Hospitals (AFH), Alhada. This is in order to be able to develop a generic model to enable and assist the educational policy makers and implementers of m-learning, to comprehend and treat those issues effectively. Specifically, the research will explore the concept of m-learning; identify and analyse the main organisational; technological and cultural issue, that relate to the adoption of m-learning; develop a model of m-learning; investigate the perception of the students of the Nursing Institutes to the use of m-learning technologies for their nursing diploma programmes based on their experiences; conduct a validation of the m-learning model with the use of the nursing Institute of the AFH, Alhada in Saudi Arabia, and evaluate the research project as a learning experience and as a contribution to the body of knowledge. Activity Theory (AT) will be adopted for the study due to the fact that it provides a conceptual framework that engenders an understanding of the structure, development and the context of computer-supported activities. The study will be adopt a set of data collection methods which engage nursing students in a quantitative survey, while nurse teachers are engaged through in depth qualitative studies to get first-hand information about the organisational, technological and cultural issues that impact on the deployment of m-learning. The original contribution will be a model for developing m-learning material for classroom-based learning in the nursing institute that can have a general application.

Keywords: activity theory (at), mobile learning (m-learning), nursing institute, Saudi Arabia (sa)

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

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Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Afia Naheed, Manmohan Singh, David Lucy

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This work is based on a mathematical as well as statistical study of an SEIJTR deterministic model for the interpretation of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Based on the SARS epidemic in 2003, the parameters are estimated using Runge-Kutta (Dormand-Prince pairs) and least squares methods. Possible graphical and numerical techniques are used to validate the estimates. Then effect of the model parameters on the dynamics of the disease is examined using sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity and uncertainty analytical techniques are used in order to analyze the affect of the uncertainty in the obtained parameter estimates and to determine which parameters have the largest impact on controlling the disease dynamics.

Keywords: infectious disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, Runge-Kutta methods, Levenberg-Marquardt method

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Authors: James A. Adeyanju, John O. Olajide, Akinbode A. Adedeji

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A predictive mathematical model based on the fundamental principles of mass transfer was developed to simulate the moisture content and oil content during Deep-Fat Frying (DFF) process of dodo. The resulting governing equation, that is, partial differential equation that describes rate of moisture loss and oil uptake was solved numerically using explicit Finite Difference Technique (FDT). Computer codes were written in MATLAB environment for the implementation of FDT at different frying conditions and moisture loss as well as oil uptake simulation during DFF of dodo. Plantain samples were sliced into 5 mm thickness and fried at different frying oil temperatures (150, 160 and 170 ⁰C) for periods varying from 2 to 4 min. The comparison between the predicted results and experimental data for the validation of the model showed reasonable agreement. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and experimental values of moisture and oil transfer models ranging from 0.912 to 0.947 and 0.895 to 0.957, respectively. The predicted results could be further used for the design, control and optimization of deep-fat frying process.

Keywords: frying, moisture loss, modelling, oil uptake

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Authors: Paulin Mbecke

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Research Issue: Under economic constraints, socio-economic conditions of households worsen discounting child’s wellbeing to the bottom of many governments and households’ priority lists. In such situation, many governments fail to rebalance priorities in providing services such as education, housing and social security which are the prerequisites for the wellbeing of children. Consequently, many households struggle to respond to basic needs especially those of children. Although economic conditions play a crucial role in creating prosperity or poverty in households and therefore the wellbeing or misery for children; they are not the sole cause. Research Insights: The review of the South African Index of Multiple Deprivation and the South African Child Gauge establish the extent to which economic conditions impact on the wellbeing or misery of children. The analysis of social, cultural, environmental and structural theories demonstrates that non-economic factors contribute equally to the wellbeing or misery of children, yet, they are disregarded. In addition, the assessment of a child abuse database proves a weak correlation between economic factors (prosperity or poverty) and child’s wellbeing or misery. Theoretical Implications: Through critical social research theory and modelling, the paper proposes a Theory-Based Model that combines different factors to facilitate the understanding of child’s wellbeing or misery. Policy Implications: The proposed model assists in broad policy and decision making and reviews processes in promoting child’s wellbeing and in preventing, intervening and managing child’s misery with regard to education, housing, and social security.

Keywords: children, child’s misery, child’s wellbeing, household’s despair, household’s prosperity

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Authors: Donna-Marie Phyllis Lanton

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Sarcopenia is a well-known geriatric syndrome characterized by the progressive and generalized loss of muscle quantity or quality. The incidence of sarcopenia increases with age and is associated with adverse outcomes such as the increased risk of falls, cognitive impairment, loss of independence, diminished quality of life, increased health costs, need for care in a skilled nursing facility, and increased mortality. Physical activity, including resistance training, is the most prevalent recommendation for treating and preventing sarcopenia. Residents (N = 23) of a skilled nursing facility in East Orlando, Florida, participated in a 90-day strength training program designed using the PARIHS framework to improve measures of muscle mass, muscle strength, physical performance, and quality of life. Residents engaged in both resistance and balance exercises for 1 hour two times a week. Baseline data were collected and compared to data at Days 30, 60, and 90. T tests indicated significant gains on all measures from baseline to 90 days: muscle mass increased by 1.2 (t[22] = 2.85, p = .009), grip strength increased by 4.02 (t[22] = 8.15, p < .001), balance increased by 2.13 (t[22] = 18.64, p < .001), gait speed increased by 1.83 (t[22] = 17.84, p < .001), chair speed increased 1.87 (t[22] = 16.36, p < .001), and quality of life score increased by 17.5 (t[22] = 19.26, p < .001). For residents with sarcopenia in skilled nursing facilities, a 90-day strength training program with resistance and balance exercises may provide an option for decreasing the incidence of sarcopenia among that population

Keywords: muscle mass, muscle strength, older adults, PARIHS framework

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Authors: Saeed Farhadypour, Majid Azadi, Habibolla Sayyari, Mahmood Mosavi, Shahram Irani, Aliakbar Bidokhti, Omid Alizadeh Choobari, Ziba Hamidi

Abstract:

In the recent decades, frequencies of dust events have increased significantly in west and south west of Iran. First, a survey on the dust events during the period (1990-2013) is investigated using historical dust data collected at 6 weather stations scattered over west and south-west of Iran. After statistical analysis of the observational data, one of the most severe dust storm event that occurred in the region from 3rd to 6th July 2009, is selected and analyzed. WRF-Chem model is used to simulate the amount of PM10 and how to transport it to the areas. The initial and lateral boundary conditions for model obtained from GFS data with 0.5°×0.5° spatial resolution. In the simulation, two aerosol schemas (GOCART and MADE/SORGAM) with 3 options (chem_opt=106,300 and 303) were evaluated. Results of the statistical analysis of the historical data showed that south west of Iran has high frequency of dust events, so that Bushehr station has the highest frequency between stations and Urmia station has the lowest frequency. Also in the period of 1990 to 2013, the years 2009 and 1998 with the amounts of 3221 and 100 respectively had the highest and lowest dust events and according to the monthly variation, June and July had the highest frequency of dust events and December had the lowest frequency. Besides, model results showed that the MADE / SORGAM scheme has predicted values and trends of PM10 better than the other schemes and has showed the better performance in comparison with the observations. Finally, distribution of PM10 and the wind surface maps obtained from numerical modeling showed that the formation of dust plums formed in Iraq and Syria and also transportation of them to the West and Southwest of Iran. In addition, comparing the MODIS satellite image acquired on 4th July 2009 with model output at the same time showed the good ability of WRF-Chem in simulating spatial distribution of dust.

Keywords: dust storm, MADE/SORGAM scheme, PM10, WRF-Chem

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Authors: Tayo P. Ogundunmade, Adedayo A. Adepoju

Abstract:

Terrorist attacks in liberal democracies bring about a few pessimistic results, for example, sabotaged public support in the governments they target, disturbing the peace of a protected environment underwritten by the state, and a limitation of individuals from adding to the advancement of the country, among others. Hence, seeking for techniques to understand the different factors involved in terrorism and how to deal with those factors in order to completely stop or reduce terrorist activities is the topmost priority of the government in every country. This research aim is to develop an efficient deep learning-based predictive model for the prediction of future terrorist activities in Nigeria, addressing low-quality prediction accuracy problems associated with the existing solution methods. The proposed predictive AI-based model as a counterterrorism tool will be useful by governments and law enforcement agencies to protect the lives of individuals in society and to improve the quality of life in general. A Heterogeneous Bayesian Neural Network (HETBNN) model was derived with Gaussian error normal distribution. Three primary transfer functions (HOTTFs), as well as two derived transfer functions (HETTFs) arising from the convolution of the HOTTFs, are namely; Symmetric Saturated Linear transfer function (SATLINS ), Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (TANH), Hyperbolic Tangent sigmoid transfer function (TANSIG), Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent transfer function (SATLINS-TANH) and Symmetric Saturated Linear and Hyperbolic Tangent Sigmoid transfer function (SATLINS-TANSIG). Data on the Terrorist activities in Nigeria gathered through questionnaires for the purpose of this study were used. Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Test Error are the forecast prediction criteria. The results showed that the HETFs performed better in terms of prediction and factors associated with terrorist activities in Nigeria were determined. The proposed predictive deep learning-based model will be useful to governments and law enforcement agencies as an effective counterterrorism mechanism to understand the parameters of terrorism and to design strategies to deal with terrorism before an incident actually happens and potentially causes the loss of precious lives. The proposed predictive AI-based model will reduce the chances of terrorist activities and is particularly helpful for security agencies to predict future terrorist activities.

Keywords: activation functions, Bayesian neural network, mean square error, test error, terrorism

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Authors: Tamás Mankovits, Dávid Huri, Imre Kállai, Imre Kocsis, Tamás Szabó

Abstract:

Non-linear FEM calculations are indispensable when important technical information like operating performance of a rubber component is desired. Rubber bumpers built into air-spring structures may undergo large deformations under load, which in itself shows non-linear behavior. The changing contact range between the parts and the incompressibility of the rubber increases this non-linear behavior further. The material characterization of an elastomeric component is also a demanding engineering task. In this paper, a comprehensive investigation is introduced including laboratory measurements, mesh density analysis and complex finite element simulations to obtain the load-displacement curve of the chosen rubber bumper. Contact and friction effects are also taken into consideration. The aim of this research is to elaborate an FEM model which is accurate and competitive for a future shape optimization task.

Keywords: rubber bumper, finite element analysis, compression test, Mooney-Rivlin material model

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Authors: Seyedeh Nahal Sadiri, Ardalan Shariat

Abstract:

Developing flexibility, by using pilates, would be useful for karate players by reducing the stiffness of muscles and tendons. This study aimed to determine the effects of 12-week pilates training on flexibility, and level of perceived exertion of back muscles among karate players. In this experimental study, 29 male karate players (age: 16-18 years) were randomized to pilates (n=15), and control (n=14) groups and the assessments were done in baseline and after 12-week intervention. Both groups completed 12-week of intervention (2 hours of training, 3 times weekly). The experimental group performed 30 minutes pilates within their warm-up and preparation phase, where the control group only attended their usual karate training. Digital backward flexmeter was used to evaluate the trunk extensors flexibility, and digital forward flexmeter was used to measure the trunk flexors flexibility. Borg CR-10 Scale was also used to determine the perceived exertion of back muscles. Independent samples t-test and paired sample t-test were used to analyze the data. There was a significant difference between the mean score of experimental and control groups in the level of backward trunk flexibility (P < 0.05), forward trunk flexibility (P < 0.05) after 12-week intervention. The results of Borg CR-10 scale showed a significant improvement in pilates group (P < 0.05). Karate instructors, coaches, and athletes can integrate pilates exercises with karate training in order to improve the flexibility, and level of perceived exertion of back muscles.

Keywords: pilates training, karate players, flexibility, Borg CR-10

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Authors: Hyungoo Kang, Minsung Kim, Jinkoo Kim

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of a 2D and 3D steel moment frame subjected to vehicle collision at a first story column using LS-DYNA. The finite element models of vehicles provided by the National Crash Analysis Center (NCAC) are used for numerical analysis. Nonlinear dynamic time history analysis of the 2D and 3D model structures are carried out based on the arbitrary column removal scenario, and the vertical displacement of the damaged structures are compared with that obtained from collision analysis. The analysis results show that the model structure remains stable when the speed of the vehicle is 40km/h. However, at the speed of 80 and 120km/h both the 2D and 3D structures collapse by progressive collapse. The vertical displacement of the damaged joint obtained from collision analysis is significantly larger than the displacement computed based on the arbitrary column removal scenario.

Keywords: vehicle collision, progressive collapse, FEM, LS-DYNA

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Authors: Aurore Cauquis, Philippe Heinrich, Mario Ricchiuto, Audrey Gailler

Abstract:

In this talk, we look for an accurate time scheme to model the propagation of waves. Several numerical schemes have been developed to solve the extended weakly nonlinear weakly dispersive Boussinesq Equations. The temporal schemes used are two Lax-Wendroff schemes, second or third order accurate, two Runge-Kutta schemes of second and third order and a simplified third order accurate Lax-Wendroff scheme. Spatial derivatives are evaluated with fourth order accuracy. The numerical model is applied to two monodimensional benchmarks on a flat bottom. It is also applied to the simulation of the Algerian tsunami generated by a Mw=6 seism on the 18th March 2021. The tsunami propagation was highly dispersive and propagated across the Mediterranean Sea. We study here the effects of the order of temporal discretization on the accuracy of the results and on the time of computation.

Keywords: numerical analysis, tsunami propagation, water wave, boussinesq equations

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