Search results for: consumer risk

Authors: Mitrajit Biswas

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This paper is trying to understand the issues related to maintaining a fan base over a period of time. The paper would be trying to look into how the fan base can be actually engaged. That is what are the attributes of keeping a fan base interested and not feeling fatigued or tired. It would also try to understand that what are the key elements required for a franchise to be active and keep the fans engaged. The paper would look to understand the primary elements of a franchise like Marvel to keep the fans engaged for such a long period of time. This will help to improve the scope of literature on consumer engagement and consumption behaviour in modern times of unpredictability. It will also help to understand how the consumers take in a longer period of engagement. This would help to understand that despite huge success and investment in fan engagement and what could be the possible reasons for disengagement? This would include in-depth interviews with a global sample of around 50 people, which would be connected through purposive, convenient, and snowball sampling. It will help to understand whether the customer lifetime value as a theory can be sustained based on customer relationship management. If yes, how can products from certain companies predict and keep up the strategy for the prediction of the consumer engagement process?

Keywords: consumption, fatigue, brand loyalty, sustainable consumption

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Authors: Adelakun O. Johnson

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The quest to mitigate the probable adverse effects of geopolitical risk on FDI inflows tends to result in more frequent changes in economic policies and, as a result, heightened policy uncertainty. In this regard, we extend the literature on the dynamics of FDI inflows to include the hypothesis of the possibility of geopolitical risk escalating the adverse effects of economic policy uncertainty on FDI inflows. To test the robustness of this hypothesis, we use the cases of different economic groups characterized by different levels of economic development and varying degrees of FDI confidence. Employing an ARDL-based dynamic panel data model that accounts for both non-stationarity and heterogeneity effects, we show result that suggests GPR and EPU retard the inflows of FDI in both economies but mainly in the short-run situation. In the long run, however, higher EPU not attributed to GPR is likely to boost the inflows of FDI rather than retarding, at least in the case of the G7 economy.

Keywords: FDI inflows, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, panel ARDL model

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Moudi Almousa

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This research paper explores Saudi Arabian female consumers’ experiences using 3D body scanning technology and their level of acceptance of possible market applications of this technology to adopt for apparel online shopping. Data was collected for 82 women after being scanned then viewed a short video explaining three possible scenarios of 3D body scanning applications, which include size prediction, customization, and virtual try-on, before completing the survey questionnaire. Although respondents have strong positive responses towards the scanning experience, the majority were concerned about their privacy during the scanning process. The results indicated that size prediction and virtual try on had greater market application potential and a higher chance of crossing the gap based on consumer interest. The results of the study also indicated a strong positive correlation between respondents’ concern with inability to try on apparel products in online environments and their willingness to use the 3D possible market applications.

Keywords: 3D body scanning, market applications, online, apparel fit

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Authors: Jiraporn Burakorn, Pran Pinthong, Supida Hutabaedya

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Commercial traditional pork sausages (Moo Yaw) were produced by added more than 30% of pork fat for appetite customer. The pork sausages texture were softness, firmness, juiciness and smooth. If the pork sausages contained less fat, their textures were hardness, dryness and incoherence. This research investigated production of low fat traditional pork sausage containing transglutaminase for improved its sensory properties and nutritive values. The enzyme pork sausage composed of transglutaminase, soybean cake, rice bran oil and other ingredients. Consumer acceptance test was done by comparing the enzyme pork sausage with the 3 commercial pork sausage with 95 consumer. The enzyme pork sausage was accepted 92.6% and was preferred in all attributes over the 3 commercial pork sausages such as appearance, color, flavor, taste, firmness and overall liking. The enzyme pork sausage was high protein but low total calories, calories from fat, total fat, saturated fat, cholesterol and carbohydrate. The enzyme pork sausage was lower calorie (90 kcal) than the commercial reference pork sausage (150 kcal) 64%. The morphological texture of the enzyme pork sausage was smooth and consistency when analyzed by SEM.

Keywords: low fat, Moo Yaw, pork sausage, transglutaminase

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Muhammad Ridho Fakhrin, Leni Sagita Riantini, Yusuf Latief

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Based on the 2015-2019 RPJMN data, the realization of toll road infrastructure development in Indonesia experienced a delay of 49% or 904 km of the total plan. One of the major causes of delays in development is caused by institutional factors. The case study taken in this research is the construction of the Trans Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS). The purpose of this research is to identify the institutional forms, functions, roles, duties, and responsibilities of each stakeholder and the risks that occur in the Trans Sumatra Toll Road Infrastructure Development. Risk analysis is implemented on functions, roles, duties, responsibilities of each existing stakeholder and is carried out at the Funding Stage, Technical Planning Stage, and Construction Implementation Stage in JTTS. This research is conducted by collecting data through a questionnaire survey, then processed using statistical methods, such as homogeneity, data adequacy, validity, and reliability test, continued with risk assessment based on a risk matrix. The results of this study are the evaluation and development of institutional functions in risk-based JTTS development can improve time performance and minimize delays in the construction process.

Keywords: institutional, risk management, time performance, toll road

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Authors: R. W. Walker, J. M. Lynch, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

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Hip and knee arthritis are two of the commonest conditions that result in elective orthopaedic outpatient referral. At clinic appointments advice given regarding lifestyle modifications or treatment options may not be fully understood by patients. The majority of patients now use the internet to research their condition and use this to inform their decision about treatments. This study assessed the quality of patient information regarding hip and knee arthritis. To assess the quality of patient information regarding knee and hip arthritis available on the internet. Two internet searches were carried out one month apart using the search terms “knee arthritis” and “hip arthritis” on Google, a search engine that accounts for over 90% or internet searches in the UK. Sites were evaluated using the DISCERN instrument, a validated tool for measuring the quality of consumer health information. The first 50 results for each search were analysed by two different observers and discrepancies in scores were reviewed by both observers together and a score was agreed upon. In total 200 search result websites were assessed, of which 84 fulfilled the inclusion criteria. 53% (n=44) were funded directly by commercial healthcare businesses and of these, 70% (n=31) were funded by a surgeon/hospital promoting end-user purchase of surgical intervention. Overall 35% (n=29) websites were “for-profit” information websites where funding was from advertising revenues from pharmaceutical and prosthesis companies. 81% (n=67) offered information about surgical treatments however only 43% (n=36) mentioned the risk of complications of surgery. 67% (n=56) did not have any reference to sources for the information they detailed and 57% (n=47) had no apparent date for the production of the information they offered. Overall 17% (n=14) of websites were judged as being of high quality, with 29% (n=24) being of moderate quality and 54% (n=45) being of low quality. The quality of health information regarding hip and knee arthritis on the internet is highly variable and the majority of websites assessed were of poor quality. A preponderance of websites were funded by a commercial surgical service offering athroplasty at consumer cost, with a further third being funded indirectly via advertising revenues from commercial businesses. The vast majority of websites only mentioned surgery as a treatment and nearly half of all websites did not mention the risks or complications of surgical intervention at all. This has implications for the consent process. As such, Clinicians should be aware of the heterogeneous nature of patient information on the internet and be prepared to advise their patients about good quality websites where further reliable information can be sought.

Keywords: hip osteoarthritis, informed consent, knee osteoarthritis, patient information

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Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

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Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

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Authors: Roger L. Goodwin

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The US Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) measures hundreds of items in the US economy. Many social programs and government benefits index to the CPIs. In mid to late 1990, much research went into changes to the CPI by a Congressional Advisory Committee. One thing can be said from the research is that, aside from there are alternative estimators for the CPI; any fundamental change to the CPI will affect many government programs. The purpose of this project is to modernize an existing process. This paper will show the development of a small, visual, software product that documents the Economic Price Adjustment (EPA) for long-term contracts. The existing workbook does not provide the flexibility to calculate EPAs where the base-month and the option-month are different. Nor does the workbook provide automated error checking. The small, visual, software product provides the additional flexibility and error checking. This paper presents the feedback to project.

Keywords: Consumer Price Index, Economic Price Adjustment, contracts, visualization tools, database, reports, forms, event procedures

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Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic

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When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan

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Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures

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Authors: Sajedeh Salehi, Marco Giacalone

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This paper examines the role of existing online dispute resolution (ODR) mechanisms and their effects on ameliorating access to justice – as a protected right by Art. 47 of the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights – for consumers in EU. The major focus of this study will be on evaluating ODR as the means of dispute resolution for Business-to-Consumer (B2C) cross-border small claims raised in e-commerce transactions. The authors will elaborate the consequences of implementing ODR methods in the context of recent developments in EU regulatory safeguards on promoting consumer protection. In this analysis, both non-judiciary and judiciary ODR redress mechanisms are considered, however, the significant consideration is given to – obligatory and non-obligatory – judiciary ODR methods. For that purpose, this paper will particularly investigate the impact of the EU ODR platform as well as the European Small Claims Procedure (ESCP) Regulation 861/2007 and their role on accelerating the access to justice for consumers in B2C e-disputes. Although, considerable volume of research has been carried out on ODR for consumer claims, rather less (or no-) attention has been paid to provide a combined doctrinal and empirical evaluation of ODR’s potential in resolving cross-border small e-disputes, in EU. Hence, the methodological approach taken in this study is a mixed methodology based on qualitative (interviews) and quantitative (surveys) research methods which will be mainly based on the data acquired through the findings of the Small Claims Analysis Net (SCAN) project. This project contributes towards examining the ESCP Regulation implementation and efficiency in providing consumers with a legal watershed through using the ODR for their transnational small claims. The outcomes of this research may benefit both academia and policymakers at national and international level.

Keywords: access to justice, consumers, e-commerce, small e-Disputes

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Authors: Yuri Katz, Kun Liu, Arunram Atmacharan

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Due to illiquidity, mispricing on Credit Markets is inevitable. This creates huge challenges to banks and investors as they seek to find new ways of risk valuation and portfolio management in a post-credit crisis world. Here, we analyze the difference in behavior of the spread-to-maturity in investment and high-yield categories of US corporate bonds between 2014 and 2023. Deviation from the theoretical dependency of this measure in the universe under study allows to identify multiple cases of mispriced credit risk. Remarkably, we observe mispriced bonds in both categories of credit ratings. This identification is supported by the application of the state-of-the-art machine learning model in more than 90% of cases. Noticeably, the ML-driven model-based forecasting of a category of bond’s credit ratings demonstrate an excellent out-of-sample accuracy (AUC = 98%). We believe that these results can augment conventional valuations of credit portfolios.

Keywords: credit risk, credit ratings, bond pricing, spread-to-maturity, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Makhosazana Dubazana

Abstract:

Many South Africans commuters use minibus taxis daily and are connected to the informal transport network through metro centres informally known as Taxi Ranks. Taxi ranks form part of an economic nexus for many informal traders, connecting them to commuters, their prime clientele. They work along designated areas along the periphery of the taxi rank and in between taxi lanes. Informal traders are therefore at risk of adverse health effects associated with the inhalation of exhaust fumes from minibus taxis. Of the exhaust emissions, benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) have high toxicity. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to conduct a Human Health Risk Assessment for informal traders, looking at their exposure to BTEX compounds. Methods: The study was conducted in a subsection of a taxi rank which is representative of the entire taxi rank. This subsection has a daily average of 400 minibus taxi moving through it and an average of 60 informal traders working in it. In the health risk assessment, a questionnaire was conducted to understand the occupational behaviour of the informal traders. This was used to deduce the exposure scenarios and sampling locations. Three sampling campaigns were run for an average of 10 hours each covering the average working hours of traders. A gas chronographer was used for collecting continues ambient air samples at 15 min intervals. Results: Over the three sampling days, the average concentrations were, 8.46ppb, 0.63 ppb, 1.27ppb and 1.0ppb for benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene respectively. The average cancer risk is 9.46E-03. In several cases, they were incidences of unacceptable risk for the cumulative exposure of all four BTEX compounds. Conclusion: This study adds to the body of knowledge on the Human Health Risk effects of urban BTEX pollution, furthermore focusing on the impact of urban BTEX on high risk personal such as informal traders, in Southern Africa.

Keywords: human health risk assessment, informal traders, occupational risk, urban BTEX

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Authors: Prafulla Kumar Choubey, Krishna Kishor Jha, S. B. Vaisakh Punnekkattu Chirayil

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In Graphics-display subsystem, frame buffers are shared between producer i.e. content rendering and consumer i.e. display. If a common buffer is operated by both producer and consumer simultaneously, their processing rates mismatch can cause tearing effect in displayed content. Therefore, Android OS employs triple buffered system, taking in to account an additional composition stage. Three stages-rendering, composition and display refresh, operate synchronously on three different buffers, which is achieved by using vsync pulses. This synchronization, however, brings in to the pipeline an additional latency of up to 26ms. The present study details about the existing synchronization mechanism of android graphics-display pipeline and discusses a new adaptive architecture which reduces the wait time to 5ms-16ms in all the use-cases. The proposed method uses two adaptive software vsyncs (PLL) for achieving the same result.

Keywords: Android graphics system, vertical synchronization, atrace, adaptive system

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Authors: G. Mattia, A. Di Leo, L. Principato

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The purchase impulsiveness is preceded by a lack of self-control: consequently, it is legitimate to believe that a consumer with a low level of self-control can result in a higher probability of cognitive dissonance. Moreover, the process of purchase is influenced by the pre-existing affective state in a considerable way. With reference to on-line purchases, digital behavior cannot be merely ascribed to the rational sphere, given the speed and ease of transactions and the hedonistic dimension of purchases. To our knowledge, this research is among the first cases of verification of the effect of moderation exerted by the positive affective state in the on-line impulse purchase of products with a high expressive value such as a smartphone on the occurrence of cognitive dissonance. To this aim, a moderation analysis was conducted on a sample of 212 impulsive millennials buyers. Three scales were adopted to measure the constructs of interest: IBTS for impulsivity, PANAS for the affective state, Sweeney for cognitive dissonance. The analysis revealed that positive affective state does not affect the onset of cognitive dissonance.

Keywords: cognitive dissonance, impulsive buying, online shopping, online consumer behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Abiodun Musbau Lawal, Benjamin Oladapo Olley

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Long Distance Truck Drivers (LDTDs) have been found to be a high-risk group in the spread of HIV/AIDS globally; perhaps, due to their high Sexual Risk Behaviours (SRBs). Interventions for reducing SRBs in trucking population have not been fully exploited. A quasi-experimental control group pretest-posttest design was used to assess the efficacy of psycho-education and behavioural skills training in reducing SRBs among LDTDs. Sixteen drivers rivers were randomly assigned into either experimental or control groups using balloting technique. A questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection. Repeated measures t-test and independent t-test were used to test hypotheses. The intervention had a significant effect on the SRBs among LDTDs at post-test(t{7}=6.01, p<.01) and at followup (t{7}=6.42, p<.01). No significant difference in sexual risk behaviour of LDTDs at post-test and at follow-up stage. Similarly, intervention had significant effects on sexual risk behaviour at post-test (t {14}=- 4.69, p<.05) and at follow-up (t {14}= -9.56, p < .05) respectively. At post-test and follow-up stages, drivers in experimental group reported reduced SRBs than those in the control group. Drivers in an experimental group reported lower sexual risk behaviour a week after intervention as well as at three months follow-up than those in the control group. It is concluded that HIV/AIDS preventive intervention that provides the necessary informational and behavioural skills content can significantly impact long distance truck drivers sexual risk behaviours.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS interventions, long distance truck drivers, Nigeria, sexual risk behaviours

Procedia PDF Downloads 476