Search results for: capability maturity model integration

Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke, Lorna M. Kamau

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This paper attempted to assess whether the size of the regional economic bloc has an impact to the flow of trade to a particular country. Two different sized blocs (COMESA and EAC) and one country (Tanzania) have been used as the point of references. Using the results from of the analyses, the paper also was anticipated to establish whether it was rational for Tanzania to withdraw its membership from COMESA (the larger bloc) to join EAC (the small one). Gravity model has been used to estimate the relationship between the variables, from which the bilateral trade flows between Tanzania and the eighteen member countries of the two blocs (COMESA and EAC) was employed for the time between 2000 and 2013. In the model, the dummy variable for regional bloc (bloc) at which the Tanzania trade partner countries belong are also added to the model to understand which trade bloc exhibit higher trade flow with Tanzania. From the findings, it was noted that over the period of study (2000-2013) Tanzania acknowledged more than 257% of trade volume in EAC than in COMESA. Conclusive, it was noted that the flow of trade is explained by many other variables apart from the size of regional bloc; and that the size by itself offer insufficient evidence in causality relationship. The paper therefore remain neutral on such staggered switching decision since more analyses are required to establish the country’s trade flow, especially when if it had been in multiple membership of COMESA and EAC.

Keywords: economic bloc, flow of trade, size of bloc, switching

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Authors: D. B. Gohil

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Closed die forging is a very complex process, and measurement of actual forces for real material is difficult and time consuming. Hence, the modelling technique has taken the advantage of carrying out the experimentation with the proper model material which needs lesser forces and relatively low temperature. The results of experiments on the model material then may be correlated with the actual material by using the theory of similarity. There are several methods available to resolve the complexity involved in the closed die forging process. Finite Element Method (FEM) and Finite Difference Method (FDM) are relatively difficult as compared to the slab method. The slab method is very popular and very widely used by the people working on shop floor because it is relatively easy to apply and reasonably accurate for most of the common forging load requirement computations.

Keywords: experimentation, forging, process modeling, strain distribution

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Authors: Nileshkumar Vishnav, Aditya Tatu

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A recent approach of representing graph signals and graph filters as polynomials is useful for graph signal processing. In this approach, the adjacency matrix plays pivotal role; instead of the more common approach involving graph-Laplacian. In this work, we follow the adjacency matrix based approach and corresponding algebraic signal model. We further expand the theory and introduce the concept of similarity of two graphs. The similarity of graphs is useful in that key properties (such as filter-response, algebra related to graph) get transferred from one graph to another. We demonstrate potential applications of the relation between two similar graphs, such as nonuniform filter design, DTMF detection and signal reconstruction.

Keywords: graph signal processing, algebraic signal processing, graph similarity, isospectral graphs, nonuniform signal processing

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Authors: Meinrad Haule Lembuka

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Ubuntu is an African philosophy and model with the meaning of 'humanity to others' or 'care for other’s needs because of the guiding principle of interdependence’ that embraces collective and holistic efforts in development through the human face. The study uses a literature review method reflecting Julius Nyerere’s contributions in realizing Ubuntu and social work practice. Nyerere strived to restore Africa development in the lens of humanism through the values of solidarity, communal participation, compassion, care, justice etc; He later founded developmental social work through Ujamaa model, educational for self reliance and African dignity. Nyerere was against post-colonial syndromes through African socialism that envisioned values and principles of social work to provide social justice, human dignity, social change and social development. Also, he managed to serve the primary mission of the social work profession to enhance human wellbeing and help meet basic human needs of all people, with particular attention to the needs and empowerment of people who are vulnerable, oppressed, and living in poverty with African Ubuntu practice of equal distribution of resources. Nyerere further endorsed social work legal framework that embraced universal human rights: service, equality, social justice, and human dignity, Importance of human relationship, integrity and competence. Nyerere proved that Indigenous model can work with formal system like Social work profession. In 2014 the National Heritage Council of South Africa (NHC) honored him an Award of African Ubuntu champion. Nyerere strongly upheld to be an ambassador of social work through his remarkably contributions in developmental social work (Ujamaa model), social change, human dignity, equality, social unity and social justice in Africa and globe at large.

Keywords: ubuntu, Indiginious knowledge, Indiginious social work, ubuntu social work

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Authors: Cheng-Yang Lee, Petrus Tang, Tzu-Hao Chang

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Copy number variations (CNVs) have played an important role in many kinds of human diseases, such as Autism, Schizophrenia and a number of cancers. Many diseases are found in genome coding regions and whole exome sequencing (WES) is a cost-effective and powerful technology in detecting variants that are enriched in exons and have potential applications in clinical setting. Although several algorithms have been developed to detect CNVs using WES and compared with other algorithms for finding the most suitable methods using their own samples, there were not consistent datasets across most of algorithms to evaluate the ability of CNV detection. On the other hand, most of algorithms is using command line interface that may greatly limit the analysis capability of many laboratories. We create a series of simulated WES datasets from UCSC hg19 chromosome 22, and then evaluate the CNV detective ability of 19 algorithms from OMICtools database using our simulated WES datasets. We compute the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in each algorithm for validation of the exome-derived CNVs. After comparison of 19 algorithms from OMICtools database, we construct a platform to install all of the algorithms in a virtual machine like VirtualBox which can be established conveniently in local computers, and then create a simple script that can be easily to use for detecting CNVs using algorithms selected by users. We also build a table to elaborate on many kinds of events, such as input requirement, CNV detective ability, for all of the algorithms that can provide users a specification to choose optimum algorithms.

Keywords: whole exome sequencing, copy number variations, omictools, pipeline

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Jaiden Xuan Schraut, Leon Liu, Yiqiao Yin

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Computer vision in medical diagnosis has achieved a high level of success in diagnosing diseases with high accuracy. However, conventional classifiers that produce an image to-label result provides insufficient information for medical professionals to judge and raise concerns over the trust and reliability of a model with results that cannot be explained. In order to gain local insight into cancerous regions, separate tasks such as imaging segmentation need to be implemented to aid the doctors in treating patients, which doubles the training time and costs which renders the diagnosis system inefficient and difficult to be accepted by the public. To tackle this issue and drive AI-first medical solutions further, this paper proposes a multi-output network that follows a U-Net architecture for image segmentation output and features an additional convolutional neural networks (CNN) module for auxiliary classification output. Class activation maps are a method of providing insight into a convolutional neural network’s feature maps that leads to its classification but in the case of lung diseases, the region of interest is enhanced by U-net-assisted Class Activation Map (CAM) visualization. Therefore, our proposed model combines image segmentation models and classifiers to crop out only the lung region of a chest X-ray’s class activation map to provide a visualization that improves the explainability and is able to generate classification results simultaneously which builds trust for AI-led diagnosis systems. The proposed U-Net model achieves 97.61% accuracy and a dice coefficient of 0.97 on testing data from the COVID-QU-Ex Dataset which includes both diseased and healthy lungs.

Keywords: multi-output network model, U-net, class activation map, image classification, medical imaging analysis

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Authors: Yun-Tao Zhang, Jong-Yeop Bae, Whoi-Yul Kim

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Background modeling and subtraction in video analysis has been widely proved to be an effective method for moving objects detection in many computer vision applications. Over the past years, a large number of approaches have been developed to tackle different types of challenges in this field. However, the dynamic background and illumination variations are two of the most frequently occurring issues in the practical situation. This paper presents a new two-layer model based on codebook algorithm incorporated with local binary pattern (LBP) texture measure, targeted for handling dynamic background and illumination variation problems. More specifically, the first layer is designed by block-based codebook combining with LBP histogram and mean values of RGB color channels. Because of the invariance of the LBP features with respect to monotonic gray-scale changes, this layer can produce block-wise detection results with considerable tolerance of illumination variations. The pixel-based codebook is employed to reinforce the precision from the outputs of the first layer which is to eliminate false positives further. As a result, the proposed approach can greatly promote the accuracy under the circumstances of dynamic background and illumination changes. Experimental results on several popular background subtraction datasets demonstrate a very competitive performance compared to previous models.

Keywords: background subtraction, codebook model, local binary pattern, dynamic background, illumination change

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Authors: Chioma Ifeoma Agbasimelo, Stephen Afam Kenechukwu

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The study examined consumers’ responses to non-traditional marketing communication strategies in advertising herbal products. The study identified the following non-traditional marketing communication strategies: (a) trado-instrumental marketing strategy, (b) trado-demonstrative marketing strategy, and (c) trado-iconographic marketing strategy. Anchored on the Black Box Theory, it adopted the survey design of three metropolises (Awka, Onitsha, and Nnewi) in Anambra State, Nigeria. Major findings indicated that among the identified strategies, the trado-instrumental marketing strategy is the most dominant strategy. Other strategies: (b) trado-demonstrative marketing strategy and (c) trado-iconographic marketing strategy are sparingly used in semi-urban cities. It also found that consumers’ preferences and adoption of non-traditional marketing communication were minimal. Based on the findings, there is a need to create a unified system of integration of both traditional and non-traditional marketing communication strategies due to technology interfaces.

Keywords: advertising, consumers’ responses, herbal products, non-traditional marketing communication strategies

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Authors: Jafar Khodagholizadeh

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In this talk, we study the tensor mode equation of perturbation in the presence of nonzero $-\Lambda$ as dark energy, whose dynamic nature depends on the Hubble parameter $ H$ and/or its time derivative. Dark energy, according to the total vacuum contribution, has little effect during the radiation-dominated era, but it reduces the squared amplitude of gravitational waves (GWs) up to $60\%$ for the wavelengths that enter the horizon during the matter-dominated era. Moreover, the observations bound on dark energy models, such as running vacuum model (RVM), generalized running vacuum model (GRVM), and generalized running vacuum subcase (GRVS), are effective in reducing the GWs’ amplitude. Although this effect is less for the wavelengths that enter the horizon at later times, this reduction is stable and permanent.

Keywords: gravitational waves, dark energy, GW's amplitude, all stage universe

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Authors: H. Alheeh, M. Alameri, A. Al Tarabsheh

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There has been a growing interest in CMOS-based sensors technology in cameras as they afford low-power, small-size, and cost-effective imaging systems. This article describes the CMOS image sensor pixel categories and presents the design and the simulation of the 3-Transistor (3T) Active Pixel Sensor (APS) in MATLAB/Simulink tool. The analysis investigates the conversion of the light into an electrical signal for a single pixel sensing circuit, which consists of a photodiode and three NMOS transistors. The paper also proposes three modes for the pixel operation; reset, integration, and readout modes. The simulations of the electrical signals for each of the studied modes of operation show how the output electrical signals are correlated to the input light intensities. The charging/discharging speed for the photodiodes is also investigated. The output voltage for different light intensities, including in dark case, is calculated and showed its inverse proportionality with the light intensity.

Keywords: APS, CMOS image sensor, light intensities photodiode, simulation

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Authors: Femy M. Makkar, S. Chandrakaran, N. Sankar

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The concept of reinforced earth has been used in the field of geotechnical engineering since 1960s, for many applications such as, construction of road and rail embankments, pavements, retaining walls, shallow foundations, soft ground improvement and so on. Conventionally, planar geosynthetic materials such as geotextiles and geogrids were used as the reinforcing elements. Recently, the use of three dimensional reinforcements becomes one of the emerging trends in this field. So, in the present investigation, three dimensional geogrid is proposed as a reinforcing material. Laboratory scaled plate load tests are conducted on a model square footing resting on 3D geogrid reinforced sand bed. The performance of 3D geogrids in triangular and square pattern was compared with conventional geogrids and the improvement in bearing capacity and reduction in settlement and heave are evaluated. When single layer of reinforcement was placed at an optimum depth of 0.25B from the bottom of the footing, the bearing capacity of conventional geogrid reinforced soil improved by 1.85 times compared to unreinforced soil, where as 3D geogrid reinforced soil with triangular pattern and square pattern shows 2.69 and 3.05 times improvement respectively compared to unreinforced soil. Also, 3D geogrids performs better than conventional geogrids in reducing the settlement and heave of sand bed around the model footing.

Keywords: 3D reinforcing elements, bearing capacity, heavy, settlement

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Authors: A. El-S. Makled, M. K. Al-Tamimi

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A mathematical model to predict the performance parameters (thrusts, chamber pressures, fuel mass flow rates, mixture ratios, and regression rates during firing time) of hybrid rocket motor (HRM) is evaluated. The internal ballistic (IB) hybrid combustion model assumes that the solid fuel surface regression rate is controlled only by heat transfer (convective and radiative) from flame zone to solid fuel burning surface. A laboratory HRM is designed, manufactured, and tested for low thrust profile space missions (10-15 N) and for validating the mathematical model (computer program). The polymer material and gaseous oxidizer which are selected for this experimental work are polymethyle-methacrylate (PMMA) and polyethylene (PE) as solid fuel grain and gaseous oxygen (GO₂) as oxidizer. The variation of various operational parameters with time is determined systematically and experimentally in firing of up to 20 seconds, and an average combustion efficiency of 95% of theory is achieved, which was the goal of these experiments. The comparison between recording fire data and predicting analytical parameters shows good agreement with the error that does not exceed 4.5% during all firing time. The current mathematical (computer) code can be used as a powerful tool for HRM analytical design parameters.

Keywords: hybrid combustion, internal ballistics, hybrid rocket motor, performance parameters

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Authors: Nancy N. Sharmila, Aparna Mishra

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Hemiparesis affects almost 80% of stroke patients each year. It is marked by paralysis or weakness on one half of the body. Our model provides both assistance and physical therapy for hemiparesis patients for swift recovery. In order to accomplish our goal a force is provided that pulls the forearm up (as in flexing the arm), and pushes the forearm down (as in extending the arm), which will also assist the user during ADL (Activities of Daily Living). The model consists of a mechanical component which is placed around the patient’s bicep and an EMG control circuit to assist patients in daily activities, which makes it affordable and easy to use. In order to enhance the neuromuscular system’s effectiveness in synchronize the movement, proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation (PNF) concept is used. The EMG signals are acquired from the unaffected arm as an input to drive the orthosis. This way the patient is invigorated to use the orthosis for regular exercise.

Keywords: EMG, hemiparesis, orthosis, rehabilitation

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Authors: Leorisyl D. Siarot

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It is conventional to see and hear Filipinos, in general, speak two or more languages. This phenomenon brings us to a closer look on how our minds process the input and produce an output with a specific chosen language. This study aimed to generate a theoretical model which explained the interaction of the first and the second languages in the human mind. After a careful analysis of the gathered data, a theoretical prototype called Language Activation Model was generated. For every string, there are three specialized banks: lexico-semantics, morphono-syntax, and pragmatics. These banks are interrelated to other banks of other language strings. As the bilingual learns more languages, a new string is replicated and is filled up with the information of the new language learned. The principles of the first and second languages' interaction are drawn; these are expressed in laws, namely: law of dominance, law of availability, law of usuality and law of preference. Furthermore, difficulties encountered in the learning of second languages were also determined.

Keywords: bilingualism, psycholinguistics, second language learning, languages

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Authors: Kazuki Kamada, Haruka Yamashita

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In Japan, taxi is one of the popular transportations and taxi industry is one of the big businesses. However, in recent years, there has been a difficult problem of reducing the number of taxi drivers. In the taxi business, mainly three passenger catching methods are applied. One style is "cruising" that drivers catches passengers while driving on a road. Second is "waiting" that waits passengers near by the places with many requirements for taxies such as entrances of hospitals, train stations. The third one is "dispatching" that is allocated based on the contact from the taxi company. Above all, the cruising taxi drivers need the experience and intuition for finding passengers, and it is difficult to decide "the destination for cruising". The strong recommendation system for the cruising taxies supports the new drivers to find passengers, and it can be the solution for the decreasing the number of drivers in the taxi industry. In this research, we propose a method of recommending a destination for cruising taxi drivers. On the other hand, as a machine learning technique, the embedding models that embed the high dimensional data to a low dimensional space is widely used for the data analysis, in order to represent the relationship of the meaning between the data clearly. Taxi drivers have their favorite courses based on their experiences, and the courses are different for each driver. We assume that the course of cruising taxies has meaning such as the course for finding business man passengers (go around the business area of the city of go to main stations) and course for finding traveler passengers (go around the sightseeing places or big hotels), and extract the meaning of their destinations. We analyze the cruising history data of taxis based on the embedding model and propose the recommendation system for passengers. Finally, we demonstrate the recommendation of destinations for cruising taxi drivers based on the real-world data analysis using proposing method.

Keywords: taxi industry, decision making, recommendation system, embedding model

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Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

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Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

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Authors: Newton Muhury, Armando A. Apan, Tek N. Marasani, Gebiaw T. Ayele

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The changing climate has degraded freshwater availability in Australia that influencing vegetation growth to a great extent. This study assessed the vegetation responses to groundwater using Terra’s moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and soil water content (SWC). A hydrological model, SWAT, has been set up in a southeast Australian river catchment for groundwater analysis. The model was calibrated and validated against monthly streamflow from 2001 to 2006 and 2007 to 2010, respectively. The SWAT simulated soil water content for 43 sub-basins and monthly MODIS NDVI data for three different types of vegetation (forest, shrub, and grass) were applied in the machine learning tool, Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis (WEKA), using two supervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF). The assessment shows that different types of vegetation response and soil water content vary in the dry and wet seasons. The WEKA model generated high positive relationships (r = 0.76, 0.73, and 0.81) between NDVI values of all vegetation in the sub-basins against soil water content (SWC), the groundwater flow (GW), and the combination of these two variables, respectively, during the dry season. However, these responses were reduced by 36.8% (r = 0.48) and 13.6% (r = 0.63) against GW and SWC, respectively, in the wet season. Although the rainfall pattern is highly variable in the study area, the summer rainfall is very effective for the growth of the grass vegetation type. This study has enriched our knowledge of vegetation responses to groundwater in each season, which will facilitate better floodplain vegetation management.

Keywords: ArcSWAT, machine learning, floodplain vegetation, MODIS NDVI, groundwater

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Authors: Dany I. Doughan, Nizam S. Najd

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Different governments in today’s global pandemic are approaching the challenging and complex issue of mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus differently while simultaneously considering their national economic and operational bottom lines. One of the most notable successes has been Taiwan's multifaceted virus containment approach, which resulted in a substantially lower incidence rate compared to Sweden’s chief mitigation tactic of herd immunity. From a classic Swiss Cheese Model perspective, integrating more fail-safe layers of defense against the virus in Taiwan’s approach compared to Sweden’s meant that in Taiwan, the government did not have to resort to extreme measures like the national lockdown Sweden is currently contemplating. From an optimized virus spread mitigation solution development standpoint using the Solutions Principle, the Taiwanese and Swedish solutions were desirable economically by businesses that remained open and non-economically or socially by individuals who enjoyed fewer disruptions from what they considered normal before the pandemic. Out of the two, the Taiwanese approach was more feasible long-term from a workforce management and quality control perspective for healthcare facilities and their professionals who were able to provide better, longer, more attentive care to the fewer new positive COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the Taiwanese approach was more applicable as an overall model to emulate thanks in part to its short-term and long-term multilayered approach, which allows for the kind of flexibility needed by other governments to fully or partially adapt or adopt said, model. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, ignored the biochemical nature of the virus and relied heavily on short-term personal behavioral adjustments and conduct modifications, which are not as reliable as establishing required societal norms and awareness programs. The available international data on COVID-19 cases and the published governmental approaches to control the spread of the coronavirus support a better fit into the Solutions Principle of Taiwan’s Swiss Cheese Model success story compared to Sweden’s.

Keywords: coronavirus containment and mitigation, solutions principle, Swiss Cheese Model, viral mutation

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Authors: Anila Xhahysa, Migena Ceyhan, Neki Kuka, Klajdi Qoshi, Damiano Koxhaj

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The seismic event catalog has been updated in the framework of a bilateral project supported by the Central European Investment Fund and with the extensive support of Global Earthquake Model Foundation to update Albania's national seismic hazard model. The earthquake catalogue prepared within this project covers the Western Balkan area limited by 38.0° - 48°N, 12.5° - 24.5°E and includes 41,806 earthquakes that occurred in the region between 510 BC and 2022. Since the moment magnitude characterizes the earthquake size accurately and the selected ground motion prediction equations for the seismic hazard assessment employ this scale, it was chosen as the uniform magnitude scale for the catalogue. Therefore, proxy values of moment magnitude had to be obtained by using new magnitude conversion equations between the local and other magnitude types to this unified scale. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue was considered the most authoritative for moderate to large earthquakes for moment magnitude reports; hence it was used as a reference for calibrating other sources. The best fit was observed when compared to some regional agencies, whereas, with reports of moment magnitudes from Italy, Greece and Turkey, differences were observed in all magnitude ranges. For teleseismic magnitudes, to account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used the exponential model for the derivation of the regression equations. The obtained regressions for the surface wave magnitude and short-period body-wave magnitude show considerable differences with Global Earthquake Model regression curves, especially for low magnitude ranges. Moreover, a conversion relation was obtained between the local magnitude of Albania and the corresponding moment magnitude as reported by the global and regional agencies. As errors were present in both variables, the Deming regression was used.

Keywords: regression, seismic catalogue, local magnitude, tele-seismic magnitude, moment magnitude

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Authors: H. Shokouhmand, A. Ghanami

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Heat pipe is simple heat transfer device which combines the conduction and phase change phenomena to control the heat transfer without any need for external power source. At hot surface of heat pipe, the liquid phase absorbs heat and changes to vapor phase. The vapor phase flows to condenser region and with the loss of heat changes to liquid phase. Due to gravitational force the liquid phase flows to evaporator section.In HVAC systems the working fluid is chosen based on the operating temperature. The heat pipe has significant capability to reduce the humidity in HVAC systems. Each HVAC system which uses heater, humidifier or dryer is a suitable nominate for the utilization of heat pipes. Generally heat pipes have three main sections: condenser, adiabatic region and evaporator.Performance investigation and optimization of heat pipes operation in order to increase their efficiency is crucial. In present article, a parametric study is performed to improve the heat pipe performance. Therefore, the heat capacity of heat pipe with respect to geometrical and confining parameters is investigated. For the better observation of heat pipe operation in HVAC systems, a CFD simulation in Eulerian- Eulerian multiphase approach is also performed. The results show that heat pipe heat transfer capacity is higher for water as working fluid with the operating temperature of 340 K. It is also showed that the vertical orientation of heat pipe enhances it’s heat transfer capacity.

Keywords: heat pipe, HVAC system, grooved Heat pipe, heat pipe limits

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Authors: Mohamed Laamim, Abdelilah Rochd, Aboubakr Benazzouz, Abderrahim El Fadili

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Smart grids have recently sparked a lot of interest in the energy sector as they allow for the modernization and digitization of the existing power infrastructure. Smart grids have several advantages in terms of reducing the environmental impact of generating power from fossil fuels due to their capacity to integrate large amounts of distributed energy resources. On the other hand, smart grid technologies necessitate many field investigations and requirements. This paper focuses on the major difficulties that governments face around the world and compares them to the situation in Morocco. Also presented in this study are the current works and projects being developed to improve the penetration of smart grid technologies into the electrical system. Furthermore, the findings of this study will be useful to promote the smart grid revolution in Morocco, as well as to construct a strong foundation and develop future needs for better penetration of technologies that aid in the integration of smart grid features.

Keywords: smart grids, microgrids, virtual power plants, digital twin, distributed energy resources, vehicle-to-grid, advanced metering infrastructure.

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Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

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Large eddy simulation (LES) has been extensively used in the investigation of turbulence. LES calculates the grid-resolved large-scale motions and leaves small scales modeled by sublfilterscale (SFS) models. Among the existing SFS models, the deconvolution model has been used successfully in the LES of the engineering flows and geophysical flows. Despite the wide application of deconvolution models, the effects of subfilter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy on the accuracy of SFS modeling have not been investigated in depth. The results of LES are highly sensitive to the selection of filters and the anisotropy of the grid, which has been overlooked in previous research. In the current study, two critical aspects of LES are investigated. Firstly, we analyze the influence of sub-filter scale (SFS) dynamics on the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) at varying filter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. An array of invertible filters are employed, encompassing Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The significance of FGR becomes evident, as it acts as a pivotal factor in error control for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models cannot accurately reconstruct the SFS stress due to the insufficient resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction capabilities are enhanced at an FGR of 2, resulting in accurate SFS stress reconstruction, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II filters. A remarkable precision close to 100% is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Additionally, the further exploration extends to the filter anisotropy to address its impact on the SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By employing dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with the anisotropic filter, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 in LES filters are evaluated. The findings highlight the DDM's proficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. High correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM's reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as lter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori studies, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, encompassing velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strain-rate tensors, and SFS stress. It is observed that as filter anisotropy intensify, the results of DSM and DMM become worse, while the DDM continues to deliver satisfactory results across all filter-anisotropy scenarios. The findings emphasize the DDM framework's potential as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES of turbulence.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

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Authors: Seshi Reddy Kasu, Florian Misoc

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The use of hydroelectric pump-storage system at large scale, MW-size systems, is already widespread around the world. Designed for large scale applications, pump-storage station can be scaled-down for small, remote residential applications. Given the cost and complexity associated with installing a substation further than 100 miles from the main transmission lines, a remote, independent and self-sufficient system is by far the most feasible solution. This article is aiming at the design of wind and solar power generating system, by means of pumped-storage to replace the wind and/or solar power systems with a battery bank energy storage. Wind and solar pumped-storage power generating system can reduce the cost of power generation system, according to the user's electricity load and resource condition and also can ensure system reliability of power supply. Wind and solar pumped-storage power generation system is well suited for remote residential applications with intermittent wind and/or solar energy. This type of power systems, installed in these locations, could be a very good alternative, with economic benefits and positive social effects. The advantage of pumped storage power system, where wind power regulation is calculated, shows that a significant smoothing of the produced power is obtained, resulting in a power-on-demand system’s capability, concomitant to extra economic benefits.

Keywords: battery bank, photo-voltaic, pump-storage, wind energy

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Authors: Pengfei Liu, Yiyi Xu

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There have been substantial incidents of wind turbine blade fractures and failures due to the lack of systematic blade strength design method incorporated with the aerodynamic forces and power generation efficiency. This research was to develop a methodology and procedure for the wind turbine rotor blade strength taking into account the strength, integration, and aerodynamic performance in terms of power generation efficiency. The wind turbine blade designed using this method and procedure will have a uniform strength across the span to save unnecessary thickness in many blade radial locations and yet to maintain the optimum power generation performance. A turbine rotor code, taking into account both aerodynamic and structural properties, was developed. An existing wind turbine blade was used as an example. For a condition of extreme wind speed of 100 km per hour, the design reduced about 19% of material usage while maintaining the optimum power regeneration efficiency.

Keywords: renewable energy, wind turbine, turbine blade strength, aerodynamics-strength coupled optimization

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Authors: Stella Nkechi Ezeaku, Ifunanya Nkechi Ohamobi

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This study investigated the impact of economic crisis on education in Anambra state. The population of the study comprised of all principals and teachers in Anambra state numbering 5,887 (253 principles and 5,634 teachers). To guide the study, three research questions and one hypothesis were formulated correlational design was adopted. Stratified random sampling technique was used to select 200 principals and 300 teachers as respondents for the study. A researcher-developed instrument tagged Impact of Economic Crisis on Education questionnaire (IECEQ) was used to collect data needed for the study. The instrument was validated by experts in measurement and evaluation. The reliability of the instrument was established using randomly selected members of the population who did not take part in the study. The data obtained was analyzed using Cronbach alpha technique and reliability co-efficient of .801 and .803 was obtained. The data were analyzed using simple and Multiple Regression Analysis. The formulated hypothesis was tested at .05 level of significance. Findings revealed that: there is a significant relationship between economic crisis and realization of goals of secondary education. The result also shows that economic crisis affect students' academic performance, teachers' morale and productivity and principals' administrative capability. This study therefore concludes that certain strategies must be devised to minimize the impact of economic crisis on secondary education. It is recommended that all stakeholders to education should be more resourceful and self-sufficient in order to cushion the effects of economic crisis currently gripping most world economies Nigeria inclusive.

Keywords: impact, economic, crisis, education

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Authors: Michalis Linardakis, Vasilis Grammatikopoulos, Athanasios Gregoriadis, Kalliopi Trouli

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Discrete choice models belong to the family of Conjoint analysis that are applied on the preferences of the respondents towards a set of scenarios that describe alternative choices. The scenarios have been pre-designed to cover all the attributes of the alternatives that may affect the choices. In this study, we examine how preschool educators integrate physical activities into their everyday teaching practices through the use of discrete choice models. One of the advantages of discrete choice models compared to other more traditional data collection methods (e.g. questionnaires and interviews that use ratings) is that the respondent is called to select among competitive and realistic alternatives, rather than objectively rate each attribute that the alternatives may have. We present the effort to construct and choose representative attributes that would cover all possible choices of the respondents, and the scenarios that have arisen. For the purposes of the study, we used a sample of 50 preschool educators in Greece that responded to 4 scenarios (from the total of 16 scenarios that the orthogonal design resulted), with each scenario having three alternative teaching practices. Seven attributes of the alternatives were used in the scenarios. For the analysis of the data, we used multinomial logit model with random effects, multinomial probit model and generalized mixed logit model. The conclusions drawn from the estimated parameters of the models are discussed.

Keywords: conjoint analysis, discrete choice models, educational data, multivariate statistical analysis

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Authors: Gilda Santos, Rita Marques, Francisca Marques, João Ribeiro, André Fonseca, João M. Miranda, João B. L. M. Campos, Soraia F. Neves

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Every year, an unacceptable number of firefighters are seriously burned during firefighting operations, with some of them eventually losing their life. Although thermal protective clothing research and development has been searching solutions to minimize firefighters heat load and skin burns, currently commercially available solutions focus in solving isolated problems, for example, radiant heat or water-vapor resistance. Therefore, episodes of severe burns and heat strokes are still frequent. Taking this into account, a consortium composed by Portuguese entities has joined synergies to develop an innovative protective clothing system by following a procedure based on the application of numerical models to optimize the design and using a combinationof protective clothing components disposed in different layers. Recently, it has been shown that Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can contribute to the reduction of potential heat hazards in fire extinguish operations, and consequently, their incorporation into firefighting protective clothing has advantages. The greatest challenge is to integrate these materials without compromising garments ergonomics and, at the same time, accomplishing the International Standard of protective clothing for firefighters – laboratory test methods and performance requirements for wildland firefighting clothing. The incorporation of PCMs into the firefighter's protective jacket will result in the absorption of heat from the fire and consequently increase the time that the firefighter can be exposed to it. According to the project studies and developments, to favor a higher use of the PCM storage capacityand to take advantage of its high thermal inertia more efficiently, the PCM layer should be closer to the external heat source. Therefore, in this stage, to integrate PCMs in firefighting clothing, a mock-up of a vest specially designed to protect the torso (back, chest and abdomen) and to be worn over a fire-resistant jacketwas envisaged. Different configurations of PCMs, as well as multilayer approaches, were studied using suitable joining technologies such as bonding, ultrasound, and radiofrequency. Concerning firefighter’s protective clothing, it is important to balance heat protection and flame resistance with comfort parameters, namely, thermaland water-vapor resistances. The impact of the most promising solutions regarding thermal comfort was evaluated to refine the performance of the global solutions. Results obtained with experimental bench scale model and numerical simulation regarding the integration of PCMs in a vest designed as protective clothing for firefighters will be presented.

Keywords: firefighters, multilayer system, phase change material, thermal protective clothing

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Wali Ullah, Muhammad Nishat

Abstract:

The study investigates the extent to which the so called Nelson-Siegel model (DNS) and its extended version that accounts for time varying volatility (DNS-EGARCH) can optimally fit the yield curve and predict its future path in the context of an emerging economy. For the in-sample fit, both models fit the curve remarkably well even in the emerging markets. However, the DNS-EGARCH model fits the curve slightly better than the DNS. Moreover, both specifications of yield curve that are based on the Nelson-Siegel functional form outperform the benchmark VAR forecasts at all forecast horizons. The DNS-EGARCH comes with more precise forecasts than the DNS for the 6- and 12-month ahead forecasts, while the two have almost similar performance in terms of RMSE for the very short forecast horizons.

Keywords: yield curve, forecasting, emerging markets, Kalman filter, EGARCH

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Goodness C. Aye

Abstract:

This paper examines the effect of the volatility of oil prices on food price in South Africa using monthly data covering the period 2002:01 to 2014:09. Food price is measured by the South African consumer price index for food while oil price is proxied by the Brent crude oil. The study employs the GARCH-in-mean VAR model, which allows the investigation of the effect of a negative and positive shock in oil price volatility on food price. The model also allows the oil price uncertainty to be measured as the conditional standard deviation of a one-step-ahead forecast error of the change in oil price. The results show that oil price uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on food price in South Africa. The responses of food price to a positive and negative oil price shocks is asymmetric.

Keywords: oil price volatility, food price, bivariate, GARCH-in-mean VAR, asymmetric

Procedia PDF Downloads 463