Search results for: error estimation

Authors: Tadashi Watanabe, Jinya Katsuyama, Akihiro Mano

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The estimation of leak flow rates through narrow cracks in structures is of importance for nuclear reactor safety, since the leak flow could be detected before occurrence of loss-of-coolant accidents. The two-phase critical leak flow rates are calculated using the system analysis code, and two representative non-homogeneous critical flow models, Henry-Fauske model and Ransom-Trapp model, are compared. The pressure decrease and vapor generation in the crack, and the leak flow rates are found to be larger for the Henry-Fauske model. It is shown that the leak flow rates are not affected by the structural temperature, but affected largely by the roughness of crack surface.

Keywords: crack, critical flow, leak, roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Muhammad Ashraf

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It is experimentally conceded reality that education not just promotes social and intellectual abilities yet, in addition, the incomes of people. The present study is directed to investigate the connection between education level and student income. Data of different education levels is acquired from 300 students through field review from four public sector Universities; two from upper Punjab (University of Gujarat and Government college university-Lahore) and two from lower Punjab (Islamia University-Bahawalpur and The University of Sahiwal). Two-phase estimation is based on the Mincerian human capital model. The first stage presents statistical/descriptive investigation, which shows positive linkage among higher education and income of the students. Econometric estimation is estimated in the second stage by applying Ordinary least Square Method (OLS). Econometric examination reaffirms the importance of higher education as the impact of higher education on students’ incomes accelerates as we move from lower-level education to higher-level education. Educational levels, experience, and working hours are sure and noteworthy with student’s income. Econometric estimation additionally investigated that M. Phil and Ph.D. students have a higher income than bachelor students. Concerning the students, the income profile study commended that the Government ought to give part-time jobs or internships to students as indicated to labor market demand.

Keywords: education, student’s income, experience, universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Seyed Esmail Seyedi Bariran, Khairul Salleh Mohamed Sahari

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In robotics literature, the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) is commonly associated with a priori-posteriori problem. The autonomous vehicle needs a neutral map to spontaneously track its local position, i.e., “localization” while at the same time a precise path estimation of the environment state is required for effective route planning and obstacle avoidance. On the other hand, the environmental noise factors can significantly intensify the inherent uncertainties in using odometry information and measurements obtained from the robot’s exteroceptive sensor which in return directly affect the overall performance of the corresponding SLAM. Therefore, the current work is primarily dedicated to provide a diagnostic analysis of six SLAM algorithms including FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM and DP-SLAM. A SLAM simulated environment consisting of two sets of landmark locations and robot waypoints was set based on modified EKF and UKF in MATLAB using two separate maps for indoor and outdoor route planning subject to natural and artificial obstacles. The simulation results are expected to provide an unbiased platform to compare the estimation performances of the five SLAM models as well as on the reliability of each SLAM model for indoor and outdoor applications.

Keywords: route planning, obstacle, estimation performance, FastSLAM, L-SLAM, GraphSLAM, Grid SLAM, DP-SLAM

Procedia PDF Downloads 415

Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, William Chimee Nwaoha

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The paper set out to stress on how financial inclusion index could be calculated and also investigated the impact of inclusive finance on inclusive growth in an emerging economy. In the light of these objectives, chi-wins method was used to calculate indexes of financial inclusion while co-integration and error correction model were used for evaluation of the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth. The result of the analysis revealed that financial inclusion while having a long-run relationship with GDP growth is an insignificant function of the growth of the economy. The speed of adjustment is correctly signed and significant. On the basis of these results, the researchers called for tireless efforts of government and banking sector in promoting financial inclusion in developing countries.

Keywords: chi-wins index, co-integration, error correction model, financial inclusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 629

Authors: Khaled Salah

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In this paper, we present MCERTL (mutation-based correction engine for RTL designs) as an automatic error correction technique based on mutation analysis. A mutation-based correction methodology is proposed to automatically fix the erroneous RTL designs. The proposed strategy combines the processes of mutation and assertion-based localization. The erroneous statements are mutated to produce possible fixes for the failed RTL code. A concurrent mutation engine is proposed to mitigate the computational cost of running sequential mutants operators. The proposed methodology is evaluated against some benchmarks. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method enables us to automatically locate and correct multiple bugs at reasonable time.

Keywords: bug localization, error correction, mutation, mutants

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Hannah F. Opayinka, Adedayo A. Adepoju

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This study is an extension of a prior study on the modification of the existing m-out-of-n (moon) bootstrap method for heavy-tailed distributions in which modified m-out-of-n (mmoon) was proposed as an alternative method to the existing moon technique. In this study, both moon and mmoon techniques were applied to two real income datasets which followed Lognormal and Pareto distributions respectively with finite variances. The performances of these two techniques were compared using Standard Error (SE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The findings showed that mmoon outperformed moon bootstrap in terms of smaller SEs and RMSEs for all the sample sizes considered in the two datasets.

Keywords: Bootstrap, income data, lognormal distribution, Pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 161

Authors: Charawee Butbumrung

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the monetary worthiness of investment and the usefulness of risk estimation as a tool employed by a production section of an electronic factory. This study employed the case study of accidents occurring in production areas. Data is collected from interviews with six production of safety coordinators and collect the information from the relevant section. The study will present the ratio of benefits compared with the operation costs for investment. The result showed that it is worthwhile for investment with the safety measures. In addition, the organizations must be able to analyze the causes of accidents about the benefits of investing in protective working process. They also need to quickly provide the manual for the staff to learn how to protect themselves from accidents and how to use all of the safety equipment.

Keywords: cost and benefit, enterprises in Thailand, investment in safety and health, risk estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Youngsun Moon, Yeong-Ju Go, Jong-Soo Choi

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Most drones that currently have surveillance/reconnaissance missions are basically equipped with optical equipment, but we also need to use a microphone array to estimate the location of the acoustic source. This can provide additional information in the absence of optical equipment. The purpose of this study is to estimate Direction of Arrival (DOA) based on Time Difference of Arrival (TDOA) estimation of the acoustic source in the drone. The problem is that it is impossible to measure the clear target acoustic source because of the drone noise. To overcome this problem is to separate the drone noise and the target acoustic source using Blind Source Separation(BSS) based on Independent Component Analysis(ICA). ICA can be performed assuming that the drone noise and target acoustic source are independent and each signal has non-gaussianity. For maximized non-gaussianity each signal, we use Negentropy and Kurtosis based on probability theory. As a result, we can improve TDOA estimation and DOA estimation of the target source in the noisy environment. We simulated the performance of the DOA algorithm applying BSS algorithm, and demonstrated the simulation through experiment at the anechoic wind tunnel.

Keywords: aeroacoustics, acoustic source detection, time difference of arrival, direction of arrival, blind source separation, independent component analysis, drone

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Hamza Benzerrouk, Alexander Nebylov

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In classical GNSS/INS integration designs, the loosely coupled approach uses the GNSS derived position and the velocity as the measurements vector. This design is suboptimal from the standpoint of preventing GNSSoutliers/outages. The tightly coupled GPS/INS navigation filter mixes the GNSS pseudo range and inertial measurements and obtains the vehicle navigation state as the final navigation solution. The ultra‐tightly coupled GNSS/INS design combines the I (inphase) and Q(quadrature) accumulator outputs in the GNSS receiver signal tracking loops and the INS navigation filter function intoa single Kalman filter variant (EKF, UKF, SPKF, CKF and HCKF). As mentioned, EKF and UKF are the most used nonlinear filters in the literature and are well adapted to inertial navigation state estimation when integrated with GNSS signal outputs. In this paper, it is proposed to move a step forward with more accurate filters and modern approaches called Cubature and High Degree cubature Kalman Filtering methods, on the basis of previous results solving the state estimation based on INS/GNSS integration, Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) and High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter with (HCKF) are the references for the recent developed generalized Cubature rule based Kalman Filter (GCKF). High degree cubature rules are the kernel of the new solution for more accurate estimation with less computational complexity compared with the Gauss-Hermite Quadrature (GHQKF). Gauss-Hermite Kalman Filter GHKF which is not selected in this work because of its limited real-time implementation in high-dimensional state-spaces. In ultra tightly or a deeply coupled GNSS/INS system is dynamics EKF is used with transition matrix factorization together with GNSS block processing which is well described in the paper and assumes available the intermediary frequency IF by using a correlator samples with a rate of 500 Hz in the presented approach. GNSS (GPS+GLONASS) measurements are assumed available and modern SPKF with Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) are compared with new versions of CKF called high order CKF based on Spherical-radial cubature rules developed at the fifth order in this work. Estimation accuracy of the high degree CKF is supposed to be comparative to GHKF, results of state estimation are then observed and discussed for different initialization parameters. Results show more accurate navigation state estimation and more robust GNSS receiver when Ultra Tightly Coupled approach applied based on High Degree Cubature Kalman Filter.

Keywords: GNSS, INS, Kalman filtering, ultra tight integration

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Authors: Safa Lazzem, Faouzi Jilani

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The aim of this research is to investigate the impact of diversification strategy on the nature of the relationship between leverage and accrual-based earnings management through panel-estimation techniques based on a sample of 162 nonfinancial French firms indexed in CAC All-Tradable during the period from 2006 to 2012. The empirical results show that leverage increases encourage managers to manipulate earnings management. Our findings prove that the diversification strategy provides the needed context for this accounting practice to be possible in highly diversified firms. In addition, the results indicate that diversification moderates the relationship between leverage and accrual-based earnings management by changing the nature and the sign of this relationship.

Keywords: diversification, earnings management, leverage, panel-estimation techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Newroz Nooralddin Abdulrazaq, Thuraya Mahmood Qaradaghi

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The McEliece cryptosystem is an asymmetric type of cryptography based on error correction code. The classical McEliece used irreducible binary Goppa code which considered unbreakable until now especially with parameter [1024, 524, and 101], but it is suffering from large public key matrix which leads to be difficult to be used practically. In this work Irreducible and Separable Goppa codes have been introduced. The Irreducible and Separable Goppa codes used are with flexible parameters and dynamic error vectors. A Comparison between Separable and Irreducible Goppa code in McEliece Cryptosystem has been done. For encryption stage, to get better result for comparison, two types of testing have been chosen; in the first one the random message is constant while the parameters of Goppa code have been changed. But for the second test, the parameters of Goppa code are constant (m=8 and t=10) while the random message have been changed. The results show that the time needed to calculate parity check matrix in separable are higher than the one for irreducible McEliece cryptosystem, which is considered expected results due to calculate extra parity check matrix in decryption process for g2(z) in separable type, and the time needed to execute error locator in decryption stage in separable type is better than the time needed to calculate it in irreducible type. The proposed implementation has been done by Visual studio C#.

Keywords: McEliece cryptosystem, Goppa code, separable, irreducible

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Ibrahim Elnour Abdelrahman Eltayeb

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Computational modelling is a method used to investigate joint forces during a movement. It can get high accuracy in the joint forces via subject-specific models. However, the construction of subject-specific models remains time-consuming and expensive. The purpose of this paper was to identify what alterations we can make to generic computational models to get a better estimation of the joint forces. It appraised the impact of these alterations on the accuracy of the estimated joint forces. It found different strategies of alterations: joint model, muscle model, and an optimisation problem. All these alterations affected joint contact force accuracy, so showing the potential for improving the model predictions without involving costly and time-consuming medical images.

Keywords: joint force, joint model, optimisation problem, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Huai-Feng Wang, Meng-Lin Lou, Ru-Lin Zhang

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One good analysis method in seismic response analysis is direct time integration, which widely adopts Rayleigh damping. An approach is presented for selection of Rayleigh damping coefficients to be used in seismic analyses to produce a response that is consistent with Modal damping response. In the presented approach, the expression of the error of peak response, acquired through complete quadratic combination method, and Rayleigh damping coefficients was set up and then the coefficients were produced by minimizing the error. Two finite element modes of soil layers, excited by 28 seismic waves, were used to demonstrate the feasibility and validity.

Keywords: Rayleigh damping, modal damping, damping coefficients, seismic response analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 416

Authors: Isaac Kayode Ogunlade

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Data acquisition (DAQ) is the process by which physical phenomena from the real world are transformed into an electrical signal(s) that are measured and converted into a digital format for processing, analysis, and storage by a computer. The DAQ is designed using PIC18F4550 microcontroller, communicating with Personal Computer (PC) through USB (Universal Serial Bus). The research deployed initial knowledge of data acquisition system and embedded system to develop a weather data acquisition device using LM35 sensor to measure weather parameters and the use of Artificial Intelligence(Artificial Neural Network - ANN)and statistical approach(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average – ARIMA) to predict precipitation (rainfall). The device is placed by a standard device in the Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA) to know the performance evaluation of the device. Both devices (standard and designed) were subjected to 180 days with the same atmospheric condition for data mining (temperature, relative humidity, and pressure). The acquired data is trained in MATLAB R2012b environment using ANN, and ARIMAto predict precipitation (rainfall). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Correction Square (R2), and Mean Percentage Error (MPE) was deplored as standardize evaluation to know the performance of the models in the prediction of precipitation. The results from the working of the developed device show that the device has an efficiency of 96% and is also compatible with Personal Computer (PC) and laptops. The simulation result for acquired data shows that ANN models precipitation (rainfall) prediction for two months (May and June 2017) revealed a disparity error of 1.59%; while ARIMA is 2.63%, respectively. The device will be useful in research, practical laboratories, and industrial environments.

Keywords: data acquisition system, design device, weather development, predict precipitation and (FUTA) standard device

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Amrane Meriem, Oukid Salyha

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The presence of defects or bugs in software can lead to costly setbacks, operational inefficiencies, and compromised user experiences. The integration of Machine Learning(ML) techniques has emerged to predict and preemptively address software defects. ML represents a proactive strategy aimed at identifying potential anomalies, errors, or vulnerabilities within code before they manifest as operational issues. By analyzing historical data, such as code changes, feature im- plementations, and defect occurrences. This en- ables development teams to anticipate and mitigate these issues, thus enhancing software quality, reducing maintenance costs, and ensuring smoother user interactions. In this work, we used a recommendation system to improve the performance of ML models in terms of predicting the code severity and effort estimation.

Keywords: software engineering, machine learning, bugs detection, effort estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Bouthiba Amina

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The estimation of the statistics bound to the precipitation represents a vast domain, which puts numerous challenges to meteorologists and hydrologists. Sometimes, it is necessary, to approach in value the extreme events for sites where there is little, or no datum, as well as their periods of return. The search for a model of the frequency of the heights of daily rains dresses a big importance in operational hydrology: It establishes a basis for predicting the frequency and intensity of floods by estimating the amount of precipitation in past years. The most known and the most common approach is the statistical approach, It consists in looking for a law of probability that fits best the values observed by the random variable " daily maximal rain " after a comparison of various laws of probability and methods of estimation by means of tests of adequacy. Therefore, a frequent analysis of the annual series of daily maximal rains was realized on the data of 54 pluviometric stations of the pond of high and average. This choice was concerned with five laws usually applied to the study and the analysis of frequent maximal daily rains. The chosen period is from 1970 to 2013. It was of use to the forecast of quantiles. The used laws are the law generalized by extremes to three components, those of the extreme values to two components (Gumbel and log-normal) in two parameters, the law Pearson typifies III and Log-Pearson III in three parameters. In Algeria, Gumbel's law has been used for a long time to estimate the quantiles of maximum flows. However, and we will check and choose the most reliable law.

Keywords: return period, extreme flow, statistics laws, Gumbel, estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Komlan Sedzro

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We apply the non-parametric, unconditional, hyperbolic order-α quantile estimator to appraise the relative efficiency of Microfinance Institutions in Africa in terms of outreach. Our purpose is to verify if these institutions, which must constantly try to strike a compromise between their social role and financial sustainability are operationally efficient. Using data on African MFIs extracted from the Microfinance Information eXchange (MIX) database and covering the 2004 to 2006 periods, we find that more efficient MFIs are also the most profitable. This result is in line with the view that social performance is not in contradiction with the pursuit of excellent financial performance. Our results also show that large MFIs in terms of asset and those charging the highest fees are not necessarily the most efficient.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, microfinance institutions, quantile estimation of efficiency, social and financial performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Pavana Basavakumar, Devadas Bhat

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Diabetes is a disease which often goes undiagnosed until its secondary effects are noticed. Early detection of the disease is necessary to avoid serious consequences which could lead to the death of the patient. Conventional invasive tests for screening of diabetes are mostly painful, time consuming and expensive. There’s also a risk of infection involved, therefore it is very essential to develop non-invasive methods to screen and estimate the level of blood glucose. Extensive research is going on with this perspective, involving various techniques that explore optical, electrical, chemical and thermal properties of the human body that directly or indirectly depend on the blood glucose concentration. Thus, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring has grown into a vast field of research. In this project, an attempt was made to device a prototype for screening of diabetes by measuring electrical impedance of the skin and building a model to predict a patient’s condition based on the measured impedance. The prototype developed, passes a negligible amount of constant current (0.5mA) across a subject’s index finger through tetra polar silver electrodes and measures output voltage across a wide range of frequencies (10 KHz – 4 MHz). The measured voltage is proportional to the impedance of the skin. The impedance was acquired in real-time for further analysis. Study was conducted on over 75 subjects with permission from the institutional ethics committee, along with impedance, subject’s blood glucose values were also noted, using conventional method. Nonlinear regression analysis was performed on the features extracted from the impedance data to obtain a model that predicts blood glucose values for a given set of features. When the predicted data was depicted on Clarke’s Error Grid, only 58% of the values predicted were clinically acceptable. Since the objective of the project was to screen diabetes and not actual estimation of blood glucose, the data was classified into three classes ‘NORMAL FASTING’,’NORMAL POSTPRANDIAL’ and ‘HIGH’ using linear Support Vector Machine (SVM). Classification accuracy obtained was 91.4%. The developed prototype was economical, fast and pain free. Thus, it can be used for mass screening of diabetes.

Keywords: Clarke’s error grid, electrical impedance of skin, linear SVM, nonlinear regression, non-invasive blood glucose monitoring, screening device for diabetes

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Azam Najafkouchak, David Todem, Dorothy Pathak, Pramod Pathak, Joseph Gardiner

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Propensity score (PS) methods have recently become the standard analysis tool for causal inference in observational studies where exposure is not randomly assigned. Thus, confounding can impact the estimation of treatment effect on the outcome. Due to the dangers of discretizing continuous variables, the focus of this paper will be on how the variation in cut-points or boundaries will affect the average treatment effect utilizing the stratification of the PS method. In this study, we will develop a new methodology to improve the efficiency of the PS analysis through stratification and simulation study. We will also explore the property of empirical distribution of average treatment effect theoretically, including asymptotic distribution, variance estimation and 95% confident Intervals.

Keywords: propensity score, stratification, emprical distribution, average treatment effect

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Authors: Jongwan Kim

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Human Computer Interaction (HCI) is a subject covering the study, plan, and design of interactions between humans and computers. The prevalent use of digital mobile devices is increasing the need for education and research on HCI. This work is focused on a new education method geared towards reducing errors while developing application programs that incorporate role-changing brainstorming techniques during HCI design process. The proposed method has been applied to a capstone design course in the last spring semester. Students discovered some examples about UI design improvement and their error discovering and reducing capability was promoted. An UI design improvement, PC voice control for people with disabilities as an assistive technology examplar, will be presented. The improvement of these students' design ability will be helpful to the real field work.

Keywords: HCI, design process, error reducing education, role-changing brainstorming, assistive technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 469

Authors: Himayatullah Khan, Alena Fedorova

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The present paper analyses the income-consumption relationships in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1980-81 to 2010-1. The paper uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the unit root and stationarity in these two time series. The paper finds that the two time series are nonstationary but stationary at their first difference levels. The Augmented Engle-Granger test and the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson test imply that the two time series of consumption and income are cointegrated and that long-run marginal propensity to consume is 0.88 which is given by the estimated (static) equilibrium relation. The paper also used the error correction mechanism to find out to model dynamic relationship. The purpose of the ECM is to indicate the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state. The results show that MPC is equal to 0.93 and is highly significant. The coefficient of Engle-Granger residuals is negative but insignificant. Statistically, the equilibrium error term is zero, which suggests that consumption adjusts to changes in GDP in the same period. The short-run changes in GDP have a positive impact on short-run changes in consumption. The paper concludes that we may interpret 0.93 as the short-run MPC. The pair-wise Granger Causality test shows that both GDP and consumption Granger cause each other.

Keywords: cointegrating regression, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Augmented Engle-Granger test, Granger causality, error correction mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Hussam Elias, Ninovic Perez, Holger Hirsch

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The completion of the EMC regulations worldwide is growing steadily as the usage of electronics in our daily lives is increasing more than ever. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to perform the final phase of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) measurement and to reduce the required test time according to the norm EN 55032 by using a developed tool and the conventional neural network(CNN). The neural network was trained using real EMC measurements, which were performed in the Semi Anechoic Chamber (SAC) by CETECOM GmbH in Essen, Germany. To implement our proposed method, we wrote software to perform the radiated electromagnetic interference (EMI) measurements and use the CNN to predict and determine the position of the turntable that meets the maximum radiation value.

Keywords: conventional neural network, electromagnetic compatibility measurement, mean absolute error, position error

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Hoda Zolfagharnejad, Behnam Kamkar, Omid Abdi

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Crop coefficient (Kc) is an important factor contributing to estimation of evapotranspiration, and is also used to determine the irrigation schedule. This study investigated and determined the monthly Kc of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) using five vegetation indices (VIs): Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Difference Vegetation Index (DVI), Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Infrared Percentage Vegetation Index (IPVI), and Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) of four basins in Golestan province, Iran. 14 Landsat-8 images according to crop growth stage were used to estimate monthly Kc of wheat. VIs were calculated based on infrared and near infrared bands of Landsat 8 images using Geographical Information System (GIS) software. The best VIs were chosen after establishing a regression relationship among these VIs with FAO Kc and Kc that was modified for the study area by the previous research based on R² and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result showed that local modified SAVI with R²= 0.767 and RMSE= 0.174 was the best index to produce monthly wheat Kc maps.

Keywords: crop coefficient, remote sensing, vegetation indices, wheat

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: M. N. Islam, B. Boswell, Y. R. Ginting

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The influence of canned cycles and cutting parameters on hole quality in cryogenic drilling has been investigated experimentally and analytically. A three-level, three-parameter experiment was conducted by using the design-of-experiment methodology. The three levels of independent input parameters were the following: for canned cycles—a chip-breaking canned cycle (G73), a spot drilling canned cycle (G81), and a deep hole canned cycle (G83); for feed rates—0.2, 0.3, and 0.4 mm/rev; and for cutting speeds—60, 75, and 100 m/min. The selected work and tool materials were aluminum 6061-6T and high-speed steel (HSS), respectively. For cryogenic cooling, liquid nitrogen (LN2) was used and was applied externally. The measured output parameters were the three widely used quality characteristics of drilled holes—diameter error, circularity, and surface roughness. Pareto ANOVA was applied for analyzing the results. The findings revealed that the canned cycle has a significant effect on diameter error (contribution ratio 44.09%) and small effects on circularity and surface finish (contribution ratio 7.25% and 6.60%, respectively). The best results for the dimensional accuracy and surface roughness were achieved by G81. G73 produced the best circularity results; however, for dimensional accuracy, it was the worst level.

Keywords: circularity, diameter error, drilling canned cycle, pareto ANOVA, surface roughness

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Authors: Sandeep Santosh, O. P. Sahu

Abstract:

In this paper, performance comparison of wideband covariance matrix sparse representation (W-CMSR) method with other existing wideband Direction of Arrival (DOA) estimation methods has been made.W-CMSR relies less on a priori information of the incident signal number than the ordinary subspace based methods.Consider the perturbation free covariance matrix of the wideband array output. The diagonal covariance elements are contaminated by unknown noise variance. The covariance matrix of array output is conjugate symmetric i.e its upper right triangular elements can be represented by lower left triangular ones.As the main diagonal elements are contaminated by unknown noise variance,slide over them and align the lower left triangular elements column by column to obtain a measurement vector.Simulation results for W-CMSR are compared with simulation results of other wideband DOA estimation methods like Coherent signal subspace method (CSSM), Capon, l1-SVD, and JLZA-DOA. W-CMSR separate two signals very clearly and CSSM, Capon, L1-SVD and JLZA-DOA fail to separate two signals clearly and an amount of pseudo peaks exist in the spectrum of L1-SVD.

Keywords: W-CMSR, wideband direction of arrival (DOA), covariance matrix, electrical and computer engineering

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Authors: Rong Wang, Sandra Hasanefendic, Elizabeth von Hauff, Bart Bossink

Abstract:

Technological learning and learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the photovoltaics (PV) cost development over time for the climate mitigation targets. They can integrate a number of technological learning sources which influence the learning process. Yet the accuracy and realistic predictions for cost estimations of PV development are still difficult to achieve. This paper develops four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global technology experience and the knowledge stock. This paper specifically focuses on the non-linear relationship between the costs and technological learning source and their dynamic interaction and uses the system dynamics approach to predict a more accurate PV cost estimation for future development. As the case study, the data from China is gathered and drawn to illustrate that the learning curve model that incorporates both the global and local experience is more accurate and realistic than the other three models for PV cost estimation. Further, absorbing and integrating the global experience into the local industry has a positive impact on PV cost reduction. Although the learning curve model incorporating knowledge stock is not realistic for current PV cost deployment in China, it still plays an effective positive role in future PV cost reduction.

Keywords: photovoltaic, system dynamics, technological learning, learning curve

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