Search results for: vessel's survival probability

Authors: Ajay Gogia, Svs Deo, Dn Sharma, Atul Batra, Ashutash Mishra

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Background and Aims: Breast cancer in women aged less than 25 years (defined as very young breast cancer, VYBC) is rare and accounts for 0.25% of all breast cancer in the West. There is no data available on VYBC from developing countries. The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical, pathological, and prognostic factors and outcomes in VYBC. Methods: This retrospective analysis was performed on 80 patients aged 25 years or less (screened 8000 files of female BC) who were registered at All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India, over a 15-year period between 2011 and 2023. Results: The median age was 21.5 years (range 16-25). A positive family history (siblings and parents) was elicited in 30% of cases, and breast cancer gene (BRCA1/2) mutation was found in 33% of cases patients. Ten patients (12.5%) patients have pregnancy-associated breast cancer (BC detected during pregnancy or 1 year after postpartum period). The TNM stage distribution was Stage I was 0, stage II -30%, stage III –60% and Stage IV -10 %patients. Seventy percent of tumors were high grade, and 90% had pathological node-positive disease. Estrogen, Progesterone, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)/neu positivity were 25%,25% and 35%, respectively. Triple-negative breast cancer constituted 40% of patients. With a median follow-up of 42 months, 3 years, relapse-free survival (nonmetastatic disease), progression-free survival (metastatic disease) and overall survival were 30%, 15% and 50%, respectively. Conclusions: Very young women constituted 1% of all breast cancer cases. Advanced disease at presentation and high-risk pathological features result in poor outcomes. One-third of VYBCs are associated with BRCA mutation, which requires genetic counseling and risk reduction surgery if required. Due to the aggressive behavior of BC in this age group, need early diagnosis and prompt treatment

Keywords: very young, breast cancer, outcome, developing country, India

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Authors: Deepak Nathiya1, Ramesh Roop Rai, Pratima Singh1, Preeti Raj1, Supriya Suman, Balvir Singh Tomar

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Background: Sarcopenia is a catabolic state in liver cirrhosis (LC), accelerated with a breakdown of skeletal muscle to release amino acids which adversely affects survival, health-related quality of life, and response to any underlying disease. The primary objective of the study was to investigate the long-term effect of branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) supplementations on parameters associated with improved prognosis in sarcopenic patients with LC, as well as to evaluate its impact on cirrhotic-related events. Methods: We carried out a 24 week, single-center, randomized, open-label, controlled, two cohort parallel-group intervention trial comparing the efficacy of BCAA against lactoalbumin (L-ALB) on 106 sarcopenic liver cirrhotics. The BCAA (intervention) group was treated with 7.2 g BCAA per whereas, the lactoalbumin group was also given 6.3 g of L-Albumin. The primary outcome was to assess the impact of BCAA on parameters of sarcopenia: muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance. The secondary outcomes were to study combined survival and maintenance of liver function changes in laboratory and clinical markers in the duration of six months. Results: Treatment with BCAA leads to significant improvement in sarcopenic parameters: muscle strength, muscle function, and muscle mass. The total cirrhotic-related complications and cumulative event-free survival occurred fewer in the BCAA group than in the L-ALB group. Prognostic markers also improved significantly in the study. Conclusion: The current clinical trial demonstrated that long-term BCAAs supplementation improved sarcopenia and prognostic markers in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis.

Keywords: sarcopenia, liver cirrhosis, BCAA, quality of life

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Authors: Muralisankar Thirunavukkarasu, Saravana Bhavan Periyakali, Santhanam Perumal

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The present study was performed to assess the effects of dietary copper (Cu) on growth, biochemical constituents, digestive enzyme activities, enzymatic antioxidant and metabolic enzymes of the freshwater prawn, Macrobrachium rosenbergii post larvae (PL). The Cu was supplemented at 0, 10, 20, 40, 60 and 80 mg kg-1 with the basal diets. Cu supplemented diets were fed to M. rosenbergii PL for a period of 90 days. At the end of the feeding experiment, 40 mg kg-1 Cu supplemented feeds fed PL showed significant (P < 0.05) improvement in survival, growth, digestive enzyme activities and concentrations of biochemical constituents. However, PL fed with 60 to 80 mg Cu kg-1 showed negative performance. Activities of enzymatic antioxidants, metabolic enzymes and lipid peroxidation in the muscle and hepatopancreas showed insignificant alterations (P > 0.05) up to 40 mg kg-1 Cu supplemented feeds fed PL. Whereas, 60 and 80 mg of Cu kg-1 supplemented feeds fed PL showed significant alterations on these antioxidants and metabolic enzymes levels. It indicates that beyond 40 mg Cu kg-1 diets were produced some toxic to M. rosenbergii PL. Therefore, the present study suggests that 40 mg Cu kg-1 can be supplemented in the diets of M. rosenbergii PL for regulating better survival and growth.

Keywords: antioxidants, biochemical constituents, copper, growth, Macrobrachium rosenbergii

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Authors: Ali Seirafi

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The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect and application of starch nanocrystals on physicochemical and microbial properties in the industrial production of probiotic yogurt. In this study, probiotic yoghurt was manufactured by industrial method with the optimization and control of the technological factors affecting the probabilistic biomass, using probiotic bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus and Bifidobacterium bifidum with commonly used yogurt primers. Afterwards, the effects of different levels of fat (1.3%, 2.5 and 4%), as well as the effects of various perbiotic compounds include starch nanocrystals (0.5%, 1 and 1.5%), galactolegalosaccharide (0.5% 1 and 1.5%) and fructooligosaccharide (0.5%, 1 and 1.5%) were evaluated. In addition, the effect of packaging (polyethylene and glass) was studied, while the effect of pH changes and final acidity were studied at each stage. In this research, all experiments were performed in 3 replications and the results were analyzed in a completely randomized design with SAS version 9.1 software. The results of this study showed that the addition of starch nanocrystal compounds as well as the use of glass packaging had the most positive effects on the survival of Lactobacillus acidophilus bacteria and the addition of nano-crystals and the increase in the cooling rate of the product, had the most positive effects on the survival of bacteria Bifidobacterium bifidum.

Keywords: Bifidobacterium bifidum, Lactobacillus acidophilus, prebiotics, probiotic yogurt

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Authors: M. Towhidur Rahman, Nasim Zaman Piyas, M. Sadiqul Baree, Shahnewaz Ahmed

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The design of high-speed craft has recently become one of the most active areas of naval architecture. Speed increase makes these vehicles more efficient and useful for military, economic or leisure purpose. The planing hull is designed specifically to achieve relatively high speed on the surface of the water. Speed on the water surface is closely related to the size of the vessel and the installed power. The Savitsky method was first presented in 1964 for application to non-monohedric hulls and for application to stepped hulls. This method is well known as a reliable comparative to CFD analysis of hull resistance. A computer program based on Savitsky’s method has been developed using MATLAB. The power of high-speed vessels has been computed in this research. At first, the program reads some principal parameters such as displacement, LCG, Speed, Deadrise angle, inclination of thrust line with respect to keel line etc. and calculates the resistance of the hull using empirical planning equations of Savitsky. However, some functions used in the empirical equations are available only in the graphical form, which is not suitable for the automatic computation. We use digital plotting system to extract data from nomogram. As a result, value of wetted length-beam ratio and trim angle can be determined directly from the input of initial variables, which makes the power calculation automated without manually plotting of secondary variables such as p/b and other coefficients and the regression equations of those functions are derived by using data from different charts. Finally, the trim angle, mean wetted length-beam ratio, frictional coefficient, resistance, and power are computed and compared with the results of Savitsky and good agreement has been observed.

Keywords: nomogram, planing hull, principal parameters, regression

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Noor Hasmini Abd Ghani

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Brand resonance is among of new focused strategy that getting more attention in nowadays by larger companies for their long-term market survival. The brand resonance emphasizing of two main characteristics that are intensity and activity able to generate psychology bond and enduring relationship between a brand and consumer. This strong attachment relationship has represented brand resonance with the concept of consumer brand relationship (CBR) that exhibit competitive advantage for long-term market survival. The main consideration toward this brand resonance approach is not only in the context of larger companies but also can be adapted in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as well. The SMEs have been recognized as vital pillar to the world economy in both developed and emergence countries are undeniable due to their economic growth contributions, such as opportunity for employment, wealth creation, and poverty reduction. In particular, the facts that SMEs in Malaysia are pivotal to the well-being of the Malaysian economy and society are clearly justified, where the SMEs competent in provided jobs to 66% of the workforce and contributed 40% to the GDP. As regards to it several sectors, the SMEs service category that covers the Food & Beverage (F&B) sector is one of the high-potential industries in Malaysia. For that reasons, SMEs strong brand or brand equity is vital to be developed for their long-term market survival. However, there’s still less appropriate strategies in develop their brand equity. The difficulties have never been so evident until Covid-19 swept across the globe from 2020. Since the pandemic began, more than 150,000 SMEs in Malaysia have shut down, leaving more than 1.2 million people jobless. Otherwise, as the SMEs are the pillar of any economy for the countries in the world, and with negative effect of COVID-19 toward their economic growth, thus, their protection has become important more than ever. Therefore, focusing on strategy that able to develop SMEs strong brand is compulsory. Hence, this is where the strategy of brand resonance is introduced in this study. Mainly, this study aims to investigate the impact of CBR as a predictor and mediator in the context of social media marketing (SMM) activities toward SMEs e-brand equity (or strong brand) building. The study employed the quantitative research design concerning on electronic survey method with the valid response rate of 300 respondents. Interestingly, the result revealed the importance role of CBR either as predictor or mediator in the context of SMEs SMM as well as brand equity development. Further, the study provided several theoretical and practical implications that can benefit the SMEs in enhancing their strategic marketing decision.

Keywords: SME brand equity, SME social media marketing, SME consumer brand relationship, SME brand resonance

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

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Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: Babak Mirbaha, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Atieh Asgari Toorzani

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Pedestrians are the most vulnerable road users since they do not have a protective shell. One of the most common collisions for them is pedestrian-vehicle at intersections. In order to develop appropriate countermeasures to improve safety for them, researches have to be conducted to identify the factors that affect the risk of getting involved in such collisions. More specifically, this study investigates factors such as the influence of walking alone or having a baby while crossing the street, the observable age of pedestrian, the speed of pedestrians and the speed of approaching vehicles on risk perception of pedestrians. A nested logit model was used for modeling the behavioral structure of pedestrians. The results show that the presence of more lanes at intersections and not being alone especially having a baby while crossing, decrease the probability of taking a risk among pedestrians. Also, it seems that teenagers show more risky behaviors in crossing the street in comparison to other age groups. Also, the speed of approaching vehicles was considered significant. The probability of risk taking among pedestrians decreases by increasing the speed of approaching vehicle in both the first and the second lanes of crossings.

Keywords: pedestrians, intersection, nested logit, risk

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Authors: Shahab Uddin, Kazi M. Uddin, Hamamah Sadiqa

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The paper deals with the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge (BMB), the 11th longest bridge in the world was constructed in 1998 aimed at contributing to promote economic development in Bangladesh. In recent years, however, the high incidence of traffic accidents and injuries at the bridge sites looms as a great safety concern. Investigation into the derailment of nine bogies out of thirteen of Dinajpur-bound intercity train ‘Drutajan Express ’were derailed and inclined on the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge on 28 April 2014. The train accident in Bridge will be deep concern for both structural safety of bridge and people than other vehicles accident. In this study we analyzed the disaster probability of the Banghabandhu Multipurpose Bridge for accidents by checking the fitness of Bridge structure. We found that train accident impact is more risky than other vehicles accidents. We also found that socio-economic impact on Bangladesh will be deep concerned.

Keywords: train accident, derailment, disaster, socio-economic

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Authors: Ayu Nabila Kusuma Pradana, Aprinaldi Jasa Mantau, Tomohiko Akahoshi

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The incidence of Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) following gastrointestinal surgery has a poor prognosis. Therefore, it is important to determine the factors that can predict the prognosis of DIC. This study will investigate the factors that may influence the outcome of DIC in patients after gastrointestinal surgery. Eighty-one patients were admitted to the intensive care unit after gastrointestinal surgery in Kyushu University Hospital from 2003 to 2021. Acute DIC scores were estimated using the new Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM) score from before and after surgery from day 1, day 3, and day 7. Acute DIC scores will be compared with The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, platelet count, lactate level, and a variety of biochemical parameters. This study applied machine learning algorithms to predict the prognosis of DIC after gastrointestinal surgery. The results of this study are expected to be used as an indicator for evaluating patient prognosis so that it can increase life expectancy and reduce mortality from cases of DIC patients after gastrointestinal surgery.

Keywords: the survival rate, gastrointestinal surgery, JAAM score, neural network, machine learning, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC)

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Authors: Ashkan Zakaryazad, Ekrem Duman

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A typical classification technique ranks the instances in a data set according to the likelihood of belonging to one (positive) class. A credit card (CC) fraud detection model ranks the transactions in terms of probability of being fraud. In fact, this approach is often criticized, because firms do not care about fraud probability but about the profitability or costliness of detecting a fraudulent transaction. The key contribution in this study is to focus on the profit maximization in the model building step. The artificial neural network proposed in this study works based on profit maximization instead of minimizing the error of prediction. Moreover, some studies have shown that the back propagation algorithm, similar to other gradient–based algorithms, usually gets trapped in local optima and swarm-based algorithms are more successful in this respect. In this study, we train our profit maximization ANN using the Migrating Birds optimization (MBO) which is introduced to literature recently.

Keywords: neural network, profit-based neural network, sum of squared errors (SSE), MBO, gradient descent

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Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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Authors: Lydia Novozhilova, Vladimir Urazhdin

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An optimization problem for reinforced thin-walled vessels under uniform external pressure is considered. The conventional approaches to optimization generally start with pre-defined geometric parameters of the vessels, and then employ analytic or numeric calculations and/or experimental testing to verify functionality, such as stability under the projected conditions. The proposed approach consists of two steps. First, the feasibility domain will be identified in the multidimensional parameter space. Every point in the feasibility domain defines a design satisfying both geometric and functional constraints. Second, an objective function defined in this domain is formulated and optimized. The broader applicability of the suggested methodology is maximized by implementing the Support Vector Machines (SVM) classification algorithm of machine learning for identification of the feasible design region. Training data for SVM classifier is obtained using the Simulation package of SOLIDWORKS®. Based on the data, the SVM algorithm produces a curvilinear boundary separating admissible and not admissible sets of design parameters with maximal margins. Then optimization of the vessel parameters in the feasibility domain is performed using the standard algorithms for the constrained optimization. As an example, optimization of a ring-stiffened closed cylindrical thin-walled vessel with semi-spherical caps under high external pressure is implemented. As a functional constraint, von Mises stress criterion is used but any other stability constraint admitting mathematical formulation can be incorporated into the proposed approach. Suggested methodology has a good potential for reducing design time for finding optimal parameters of thin-walled vessels under uniform external pressure.

Keywords: design parameters, feasibility domain, von Mises stress criterion, Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier

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Authors: Yun-Pang Flötteröd, Jakob Erdmann

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The human behaviors during evacuations are quite complex. One of the critical behaviors which affect the efficiency of evacuation is route choice. Therefore, the respective simulation modeling work needs to function properly. In this paper, Simulation of Urban Mobility’s (SUMO) current dynamic route modeling during evacuation, i.e. the rerouting functions, is examined with a real case study. The result consistency of the simulation and the reality is checked as well. Four influence factors (1) time to get information, (2) probability to cancel a trip, (3) probability to use navigation equipment, and (4) rerouting and information updating period are considered to analyze possible traffic impacts during the evacuation and to examine the rerouting functions in SUMO. Furthermore, some behavioral characters of the case study are analyzed with use of the corresponding detector data and applied in the simulation. The experiment results show that the dynamic route modeling in SUMO can deal with the proposed scenarios properly. Some issues and function needs related to route choice are discussed and further improvements are suggested.

Keywords: evacuation, microscopic traffic simulation, rerouting, SUMO

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Authors: A. Čelan, M. Ćosić, D. Rušić, N. Kuzmanić

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Conducting crystallization in an agitated vessel requires a proper selection of mixing parameters that would result in a production of crystals of specific properties. In dual impeller systems, which are characterized by a more complex hydrodynamics due to the possible fluid flow interactions, revealing a clear link between mixing parameters and crystallization kinetics is still an open issue. The aim of this work is to establish this connection by investigating how fluid flow patterns, generated by two impellers mounted on the same shaft, reflect on metastable zone width of borax decahydrate, one of the most important parameters of the crystallization process. Investigation was carried out in a 15-dm³ bench scale batch cooling crystallizer with an aspect ratio (H/T) equal to 1.3. For this reason, two radial straight blade turbines (4-SBT) were used for agitation. Experiments were conducted at different impeller spacings at the state of complete suspension. During the process of an unseeded batch cooling crystallization, solution temperature and supersaturation were continuously monitored what enabled a determination of the metastable zone width. Hydrodynamic conditions in the vessel achieved at different impeller spacings investigated were analyzed in detail. This was done firstly by measuring the mixing time required to attain the desired level of homogeneity. Secondly, fluid flow patterns generated in a described dual impeller system were both photographed and simulated by VisiMix Turbulent software. Also, a comparison of these two visualization methods was performed. Experimentally obtained results showed that metastable zone width is definitely affected by the hydrodynamics in the crystallizer. This means that this crystallization parameter can be controlled not only by adjusting the saturation temperature or cooling rate, as is usually done, but also by choosing a suitable impeller spacing that will result in a formation of crystals of wanted size distribution.

Keywords: dual impeller crystallizer, fluid flow pattern, metastable zone width, mixing time, radial impeller

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Authors: Justin Zhengjie Tan, Yang Zhao

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Adiabatic Rapid Passage, a popular method of achieving population inversion, is studied in a Rabi dimer model in the presence of noise which acts as a dissipative environment. The integration of the multi-Davydov D2 Ansatz into the time-dependent variational framework enables us to model the intricate quantum system accurately. By influencing the system with a driving field strength resonant with the energy spacing, the probability of adiabatic rapid passage, which is modelled after the Landau Zener model, can be derived along with several other observables, such as the photon population. The effects of a dissipative environment can be reproduced by coupling the system to a common phonon mode. By manipulating the strength and frequency of the driving field, along with the coupling strength of the phonon mode to the qubits, we are able to control the qubits and photon dynamics and subsequently increase the probability of Adiabatic Rapid Passage happening.

Keywords: quantum electrodynamics, adiabatic rapid passage, Landau-Zener transitions, dissipative environment

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Authors: Aliakbar Hafezi, Jalal Taherian, Mahsa Elahi, Jamshid Abedi

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Background: Patients with breast cancer with different molecular subtypes may have different pathological responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the pathological response to NAC in patients with locally advanced breast cancer based on molecular subtypes. Method: In this retrospective cohort study, 210 female patients with breast cancer candidate for NAC referred to the radiation oncology departments in southern Iran between August 2019 and September 2024 were evaluated in terms of pathologic complete response (pCR) based on immunohistochemical molecular markers (estrogen and progesterone receptors, Her-2/neu and Ki-67), overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results: The mean age of the patients was 38.22 ± 10.34 years, and 68 patients (32.4%) had a positive family history of breast cancer. The pCR rate was 17.6% (37 patients), which in the subtypes of luminal A, luminal B, Her-2/neu positive and triple negative was 7.7%, 16.9%, 26.5% and 21.05%, respectively. Patients with pCR had significantly better OS (78.4% vs. 49.1%, P = 0.014) and DFS (83.8% vs. 51.4%, P = 0.020) than patients with partial/no pathological response. Conclusion: It seems that the molecular subtype plays a decisive role in the clinical outcome and the pathological response to NAC in patients with locally advanced breast cancer.

Keywords: locally advanced breast cancer, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, pathologic complete response, clinical outcomes

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Authors: K. S. Zaytsev, Y. R. Nartsissov

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Glycine is one of the key inhibitory neurotransmitters in Central nervous system (CNS) meanwhile glycinergic transmission is highly dependable on its appropriate reuptake from synaptic cleft. Glycine transporters (GlyT) of types 1 and 2 are the enzymes providing glycine transport back to neuronal and glial cells along with Na⁺ and Cl⁻ co-transport. The distribution and stoichiometry of GlyT1 and GlyT2 differ in details, and GlyT2 is more interesting for the research as it reuptakes glycine to neuron cells, whereas GlyT1 is located in glial cells. In the process of GlyT2 activity, the translocation of the amino acid is accompanied with binding of both one chloride and three sodium ions consequently (two sodium ions for GlyT1). In the present study, we developed a computer simulator of GlyT2 and GlyT1 activity based on known experimental data for quantitative estimation of membrane glycine transport. The trait of a single protein functioning was described using the probability approach where each enzyme state was considered separately. Created scheme of transporter functioning realized as a consequence of elemental steps allowed to take into account each event of substrate association and dissociation. Computer experiments using up-to-date kinetic parameters allowed receiving the number of translocated glycine molecules, Na⁺ and Cl⁻ ions per time period. Flexibility of developed software makes it possible to evaluate glycine reuptake pattern in time under different internal characteristics of enzyme conformational transitions. We investigated the behavior of the system in a wide range of equilibrium constant (from 0.2 to 100), which is not determined experimentally. The significant influence of equilibrium constant in the range from 0.2 to 10 on the glycine transfer process is shown. The environmental conditions such as ion and glycine concentrations are decisive if the values of the constant are outside the specified range.

Keywords: glycine, inhibitory neurotransmitters, probability approach, single protein functioning

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Authors: Surya R. Niraula, Devendra B Chhetry, Girish K. Singh, S. Nagesh, Frederick A. Connell

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Background: Although random sampling is generally considered to be the gold standard for population-based research, the majority of drug abuse research is based on non-random sampling despite the well-known limitations of this kind of sampling. Method: We compared the statistical properties of two surveys of drug abuse in the same community: one using snowball sampling of drug users who then identified “friend controls” and the other using a random sample of non-drug users (controls) who then identified “friend cases.” Models to predict drug abuse based on risk factors were developed for each data set using conditional logistic regression. We compared the precision of each model using bootstrapping method and the predictive properties of each model using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Results: Analysis of 100 random bootstrap samples drawn from the snowball-sample data set showed a wide variation in the standard errors of the beta coefficients of the predictive model, none of which achieved statistical significance. One the other hand, bootstrap analysis of the random-sample data set showed less variation, and did not change the significance of the predictors at the 5% level when compared to the non-bootstrap analysis. Comparison of the area under the ROC curves using the model derived from the random-sample data set was similar when fitted to either data set (0.93, for random-sample data vs. 0.91 for snowball-sample data, p=0.35); however, when the model derived from the snowball-sample data set was fitted to each of the data sets, the areas under the curve were significantly different (0.98 vs. 0.83, p < .001). Conclusion: The proposed method of random sampling of controls appears to be superior from a statistical perspective to snowball sampling and may represent a viable alternative to snowball sampling.

Keywords: drug abuse, matched case-control study, non-probability sampling, probability sampling

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: statistical slope stability analysis, skew distributions, probability of failure, functions of random variables

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Authors: Babak Kamrani, Nozar Kishi

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Stochastic catalog represents the events module of the earthquake loss estimation models. It includes series of events with different magnitudes and corresponding frequencies/probabilities. For the development of the stochastic catalog, random or uniform sampling methods are used to sample the events from the seismicity model. For covering all the Magnitude Frequency Distribution (MFD), a huge number of events should be generated for the above-mentioned methods. Characteristic Event (CE) method chooses the events based on the interest of the insurance industry. We divide the MFD of each source into bins. We have chosen the bins based on the probability of the interest by the insurance industry. First, we have collected the information for the available seismic sources. Sources are divided into Fault sources, subduction, and events without specific fault source. We have developed the MFD for each of the individual and areal source based on the seismicity of the sources. Afterward, we have calculated the CE magnitudes based on the desired probability. To develop the stochastic catalog, we have introduced uncertainty to the location of the events too.

Keywords: stochastic catalogue, earthquake loss, uncertainty, characteristic event

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Authors: Komal Babbar

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Multiuser Detection is the intelligent estimation/demodulation of transmitted bits in the presence of Multiple Access Interference. The authors have presented the Bit-error rate (BER) achieved by linear multi-user detectors: Matched filter (which treats the MAI as AWGN), Decorrelating and MMSE. In this work, authors investigate the bit error probability analysis for Matched filter, decorrelating, and MMSE. This problem arises in several practical CDMA applications where the receiver may not have full knowledge of the number of active users and their signature sequences. In particular, the behavior of MAI at the output of the Multi-user detectors (MUD) is examined under various asymptotic conditions including large signal to noise ratio; large near-far ratios; and a large number of users. In the last section Authors also shows Matlab Simulation results for Multiuser detection techniques i.e., Matched filter, Decorrelating, MMSE for 2 users and 10 users.

Keywords: code division multiple access, decorrelating, matched filter, minimum mean square detection (MMSE) detection, multiple access interference (MAI), multiuser detection (MUD)

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Authors: Wern Lin Yeo, Choo Kim Tan, Sook Ling Lew

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Mathematics anxiety refers to the feeling of anxious when one having difficulties in solving mathematical problem. Mathematics anxiety is the most common type of anxiety among other types of anxiety which occurs among the students. However, level of anxiety among males and females are different. There were few past study were conducted to determine the relationship of anxiety and gender but there were still did not have an exact results. Hence, the purpose of this study is to determine the relationship of anxiety level between male and female undergraduates at a private university in Malaysia. Convenient sampling method used in this study in which the students were selected based on the grouping assigned by the faculty. There were 214 undergraduates who registered the probability courses had participated in this study. Mathematics Anxiety Rating Scale (MARS) was the instrument used in study which used to determine students’ anxiety level towards probability. Reliability and validity of instrument was done before the major study was conducted. In the major study, students were given briefing about the study conducted. Participation of this study were voluntary. Students were given consent form to determine whether they agree to participate in the study. Duration of two weeks were given for students to complete the given online questionnaire. The data collected will be analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to determine the level of anxiety. There were three anxiety level, i.e., low, average and high. Students’ anxiety level were determined based on their scores obtained compared with the mean and standard deviation. If the scores obtained were below mean and standard deviation, the anxiety level was low. If the scores were at below and above the mean and between one standard deviation, the anxiety level was average. If the scores were above the mean and greater than one standard deviation, the anxiety level was high. Results showed that both of the gender were having average anxiety level. Males having high frequency of three anxiety level which were low, average and high anxiety level as compared to females. Hence, the mean values obtained for males (M = 3.62) was higher than females (M = 3.42). In order to be significant of anxiety level among the gender, the p-value should be less than .05. The p-value obtained in this study was .117. However, this value was greater than .05. Thus, there was no significant difference of anxiety level among the gender. In other words, there was no relationship of anxiety level with the gender.

Keywords: anxiety level, gender, mathematics anxiety, probability and statistics

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Authors: Nalanda Matia, Julia Zhao, Amber Jaycocks, Divya Sinha

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Social assistance programs for businesses are intended to improve their survival and growth in the face of catastrophic events like the COVID-19 pandemic. However, that goal remains unfulfilled when the mostwantingbusinesses fail to participate in such programs. Reasons for non-participation can include lack of information, inability to cope with applications and program compliance, as well as some programs’ non-entitlement status. Some of these factors may be associated with the organizational and locational characteristics of these businesses. This research investigates these organizational and locational factorsthat determine receipt and effectiveness of social assistance among the firms that receive it. of A sample of firms from the universe of 3 rounds of Small Business Administration backed Paycheck Protection Program recipient and similarly profiled non recipient businesses are used to analyze this question. Initial results show firm organizational factors like size and spatial factors like broadband coverage at firm location impact application for and subsequent receipt of assistance for digitally administered programs. Further, Line of business and wage structure of recipients’ impact effectiveness of the assistance dollars.

Keywords: public economics, economics of social assistance, firm organizational structure, survival analysis

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Authors: Shanxiong Chen, Xu Han, Xiaolong Wang, Hui Ma

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Yi is an ethnic group mainly living in mainland China, with its own spoken and written language systems, after development of thousands of years. Ancient Yi is one of the six ancient languages in the world, which keeps a record of the history of the Yi people and offers documents valuable for research into human civilization. Recognition of the characters in ancient Yi helps to transform the documents into an electronic form, making their storage and spreading convenient. Due to historical and regional limitations, research on recognition of ancient characters is still inadequate. Thus, deep learning technology was applied to the recognition of such characters. Five models were developed on the basis of the four-layer convolutional neural network (CNN). Alpha-Beta divergence was taken as a penalty term to re-encode output neurons of the five models. Two fully connected layers fulfilled the compression of the features. Finally, at the softmax layer, the orthographic features of ancient Yi characters were re-evaluated, their probability distributions were obtained, and characters with features of the highest probability were recognized. Tests conducted show that the method has achieved higher precision compared with the traditional CNN model for handwriting recognition of the ancient Yi.

Keywords: recognition, CNN, Yi character, divergence

Procedia PDF Downloads 165