Search results for: covariance forecasting

Authors: E. Tchandao Mangamana, V. Cariou, E. Vigneau, R. Glele Kakai, E. M. Qannari

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A new definition of a latent variable associated with a dataset makes it possible to propose variants of the PLS2 regression and the multi-block PLS (MB-PLS). We shall refer to these variants as Rd-PLS regression and Rd-MB-PLS respectively because they are inspired by both Redundancy analysis and PLS regression. Usually, a latent variable t associated with a dataset Z is defined as a linear combination of the variables of Z with the constraint that the length of the loading weights vector equals 1. Formally, t=Zw with ‖w‖=1. Denoting by Z' the transpose of Z, we define herein, a latent variable by t=ZZ’q with the constraint that the auxiliary variable q has a norm equal to 1. This new definition of a latent variable entails that, as previously, t is a linear combination of the variables in Z and, in addition, the loading vector w=Z’q is constrained to be a linear combination of the rows of Z. More importantly, t could be interpreted as a kind of projection of the auxiliary variable q onto the space generated by the variables in Z, since it is collinear to the first PLS1 component of q onto Z. Consider the situation in which we aim to predict a dataset Y from another dataset X. These two datasets relate to the same individuals and are assumed to be centered. Let us consider a latent variable u=YY’q to which we associate the variable t= XX’YY’q. Rd-PLS consists in seeking q (and therefore u and t) so that the covariance between t and u is maximum. The solution to this problem is straightforward and consists in setting q to the eigenvector of YY’XX’YY’ associated with the largest eigenvalue. For the determination of higher order components, we deflate X and Y with respect to the latent variable t. Extending Rd-PLS to the context of multi-block data is relatively easy. Starting from a latent variable u=YY’q, we consider its ‘projection’ on the space generated by the variables of each block Xk (k=1, ..., K) namely, tk= XkXk'YY’q. Thereafter, Rd-MB-PLS seeks q in order to maximize the average of the covariances of u with tk (k=1, ..., K). The solution to this problem is given by q, eigenvector of YY’XX’YY’, where X is the dataset obtained by horizontally merging datasets Xk (k=1, ..., K). For the determination of latent variables of order higher than 1, we use a deflation of Y and Xk with respect to the variable t= XX’YY’q. In the same vein, extending Rd-MB-PLS to the path modeling setting is straightforward. Methods are illustrated on the basis of case studies and performance of Rd-PLS and Rd-MB-PLS in terms of prediction is compared to that of PLS2 and MB-PLS.

Keywords: multiblock data analysis, partial least squares regression, path modeling, redundancy analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Belkacem Selma, Boumediene Selma, Tourkia Guerzou, Abbes Labdelli

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Natural disasters have occurred and will continue to cause human and material damage. Therefore, the idea of "preventing" natural disasters will never be possible. However, their prediction is possible with the advancement of technology. Even if natural disasters are effectively inevitable, their consequences may be partly controlled. The rapid growth and progress of artificial intelligence (AI) had a major impact on the prediction of natural disasters and risk assessment which are necessary for effective disaster reduction. The Earthquakes prediction to prevent the loss of human lives and even property damage is an important factor; that is why it is crucial to develop techniques for predicting this natural disaster. This present study aims to analyze the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict earthquakes that occur in a given area. The used data describe the problem of high energy (higher than 10^4J) seismic bumps forecasting in a coal mine using two long walls as an example. For this purpose, seismic bumps data obtained from mines has been analyzed. The results obtained show that the ANN with high accuracy was able to predict earthquake parameters; the classification accuracy through neural networks is more than 94%, and that the models developed are efficient and robust and depend only weakly on the initial database.

Keywords: earthquake prediction, ANN, seismic bumps

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Kashif Hassan, M.A. Ahanger

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Floods have become more frequent and severe due to effects of global climate change and human alterations of the natural environment. Flood prediction/ forecasting and control is one of the greatest challenges facing the world today. The forecast of floods is achieved by the use of hydraulic models such as HEC-RAS, which are designed to simulate flow processes of the surface water. Extreme flood events in river Jhelum , lasting from a day to few are a major disaster in the State of Jammu and Kashmir, India. In the present study HEC-RAS model was applied to two different reaches of river Jhelum in order to estimate the flood levels corresponding to 25, 50 and 100 year return period flood events at important locations and to deduce flood vulnerability of important areas and structures. The flow rates for the two reaches were derived from flood-frequency analysis of 50 years of historic peak flow data. Manning's roughness coefficient n was selected using detailed analysis. Rating Curves were also generated to serve as base for determining the boundary conditions. Calibration and Validation procedures were applied in order to ensure the reliability of the model. Sensitivity analysis was also performed in order to ensure the accuracy of Manning's n in generating water surface profiles.

Keywords: flood plain, HEC-RAS, Jhelum, return period

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Shay Kee Tan, Kok Haur Ng, Jennifer So-Kuen Chan

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This paper extends the conditional autoregressive range (CARR) model to multivariate CARR (MCARR) model and further to the two-stage MCARR-return model to model and forecast volatilities, correlations and returns of multiple financial assets. The first stage model fits the scaled realised Parkinson volatility measures using individual series and their pairwise sums of indices to the MCARR model to obtain in-sample estimates and forecasts of volatilities for these individual and pairwise sum series. Then covariances are calculated to construct the fitted variance-covariance matrix of returns which are imputed into the stage-two return model to capture the heteroskedasticity of assets’ returns. We investigate different choices of mean functions to describe the volatility dynamics. Empirical applications are based on the Standard and Poor 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones United States Financial Service Indices. Results show that the stage-one MCARR models using asymmetric mean functions give better in-sample model fits than those based on symmetric mean functions. They also provide better out-of-sample volatility forecasts than those using CARR models based on two robust loss functions with the scaled realised open-to-close volatility measure as the proxy for the unobserved true volatility. We also find that the stage-two return models with constant means and multivariate Student-t errors give better in-sample fits than the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner type of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BEKK-GARCH) models. The estimates and forecasts of value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional VaR based on the best MCARR-return models for each asset are provided and tested using Kupiec test to confirm the accuracy of the VaR forecasts.

Keywords: range-based volatility, correlation, multivariate CARR-return model, value-at-risk, conditional value-at-risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Nasrin Bakhshizadeh, Ashkan Forootan

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A major problem that affects the quality control of polymer in the industrial polymerization is the lack of suitable on-line measurement tools to evaluate the properties of the polymer such as melt and density indices. Controlling the polymerization in ordinary method is performed manually by taking samples, measuring the quality of polymer in the lab and registry of results. This method is highly time consuming and leads to producing large number of incompatible products. An online application for estimating melt index and density proposed in this study is a neural network based on the input-output data of the polyethylene production plant. Temperature, the level of reactors' bed, the intensity of ethylene mass flow, hydrogen and butene-1, the molar concentration of ethylene, hydrogen and butene-1 are used for the process to establish the neural model. The neural network is taught based on the actual operational data and back-propagation and Levenberg-Marquart techniques. The simulated results indicate that the neural network process model established with three layers (one hidden layer) for forecasting the density and the four layers for the melt index is able to successfully predict those quality properties.

Keywords: polyethylene, polymerization, density, melt index, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Jinyan Li, Simon Fong, Raymond Wong, Mohammed Sabah, Fiaidhi Jinan

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Clinical data analysis and forecasting have make great contributions to disease control, prevention and detection. However, such data usually suffer from highly unbalanced samples in class distributions. In this paper, we target at the binary imbalanced dataset, where the positive samples take up only the minority. We investigate two different meta-heuristic algorithms, particle swarm optimization and bat-inspired algorithm, and combine both of them with the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) for processing the datasets. One approach is to process the full dataset as a whole. The other is to split up the dataset and adaptively process it one segment at a time. The experimental results reveal that while the performance improvements obtained by the former methods are not scalable to larger data scales, the later one, which we call Adaptive Swarm Balancing Algorithms, leads to significant efficiency and effectiveness improvements on large datasets. We also find it more consistent with the practice of the typical large imbalanced medical datasets. We further use the meta-heuristic algorithms to optimize two key parameters of SMOTE. Leading to more credible performances of the classifier, and shortening the running time compared with the brute-force method.

Keywords: Imbalanced dataset, meta-heuristic algorithm, SMOTE, big data

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Suganiya Rama Rao, Yoon-Yen Yow, Thor-Seng Liew, Shyamala Ratnayeke

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Invasive snails in the genus Pomacea have spread across Southeast Asia including Peninsular Malaysia. Apart from significant economic costs to wetland crops, very little is known about the snails’ effects on native species, and wetland function through their alteration of macrophyte communities. This study was conducted to establish diagnostic characteristics of Pomacea species in the Malaysian environment using genetic and morphological criteria. Snails were collected from eight localities in northern and central regions of Peninsular Malaysia. The mitochondrial COI gene of 52 adult snails was amplified and sequenced. Maximum likelihood analysis was used to analyse species identity and assess phylogenetic relationships among snails from different geographic locations. Shells of the two species were compared using geometric morphometric analysis and covariance analyses. Shell height accounted for most of the observed variation between P. canaliculata and P. maculata, with the latter possessing a smaller mean ratio of shell height: aperture height (p < 0.0001) and shell height to shell width (give p < 0.0001). Genomic and phylogenetic analysis demonstrated the presence of two monophyletic taxa, P. canaliculata and P. maculata, in Peninsular Malaysia samples. P. maculata co-occurred with P. canaliculata in 5 localities, but samples from 3 localities contained only P. canaliculata. This study is the first to confirm the presence of two of the most invasive species of Pomacea in Peninsular Malaysia using a genomic approach. P. canaliculata appears to be the more widespread species. Despite statistical differences, both quantitative and qualitative morphological characteristics demonstrate much interspecific overlap and intraspecific variability; thus morphology alone cannot reliably verify species identity. Molecular techniques for distinguishing between these two highly invasive Pomacea species are needed to understand their specific ecological niches and develop effective protocols for their management.

Keywords: Pomacea canaliculata, Pomacea maculata, invasive species, phylog enetic analysis, geometric morphometric analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM is a technique that project managers use to track the performance of their project against project baselines. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not, and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the project management software Primavera P6 is used to deals with the project monitoring process of a seven-storeyed (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed, and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.

Keywords: earned value management (EVM), construction cost management, construction planning, primavera P6, project management, project scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: E. U. Dampage, Ovindi D. Bandara, Vinushi S. Waraketiya, Samitha S. R. De Silva, Yasiru S. Gunarathne

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The knowledge of water inflow figures is paramount in decision making on the allocation for consumption for numerous purposes; irrigation, hydropower, domestic and industrial usage, and flood control. The understanding of how reservoir inflows are affected by different climatic and hydrological conditions is crucial to enable effective water management and downstream flood control. In this research, we propose a method using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to assist the aforesaid decision-making process. The Kotmale reservoir, which is the uppermost reservoir in the Mahaweli reservoir complex in Sri Lanka, was used as the test bed for this research. The ANN uses the runoff in the Kotmale reservoir catchment area and the effect of Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) to make a forecast for seven days ahead. Three types of ANN are tested; Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and LSTM. The extensive field trials and validation endeavors found that the LSTM ANN provides superior performance in the aspects of accuracy and latency.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, CNN, inflow, long short-term memory, LSTM, multi-layer perceptron, MLP, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak

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In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used as regional climate model to dynamically downscale the ECHAM5 Global Climate Model projection for the regional climate change impact on air quality–related meteorological conditions in the upper northern Thailand. The analyses were focused on meteorological variables that potentially impact on the regional air quality such as sea level pressure, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), surface temperature, wind speed and ventilation. Comparisons were made between the present (1990–2009) and future (2045–2064) climate downscaling results during majority air pollution season (dry season, January-April). Analyses showed that the sea level pressure will be stronger in the future, suggesting more stable atmosphere. Increases in temperature were obvious observed throughout the region. Decreases in surface wind and PBLH were predicted during air pollution season, indicating weaker ventilation rate in this region. Consequently, air quality-related meteorological variables were predicted to change in almost part of the upper northern Thailand, yielding a favorable meteorological condition for pollutant accumulation in the future.

Keywords: climate change, climate impact, air quality, air pollution, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 328

Authors: Oluwabukola Oluwaseyi Oduntan

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The English Language plays a central and strategic role in the school system because almost all the school subjects are taught using the English language. However, students’ achievement in this subject at senior secondary school is not encouraging. Therefore, this study examined the effects of oral-written mode of assessment on senior secondary school students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It also examined the moderating effects of students’ gender and class on students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. The study adopted a pretest-posttest, control group, quasi-experimental design with a 2x2x3 factorial matrix. The participant consisted of 140 Senior Secondary II students drawn from four intact classes from four schools randomly selected from four Local Government Areas randomly selected from Oyo town in Oyo State. Two schools were assigned each to the treatment group and the control group. The following instruments were used for the study: Descriptive Essay Achievement Test (r = 0.78); Descriptive Achievement Test Marking Scheme; Check List of Oral-Written Assessment and Teachers’ Instructional Guide on Descriptive Essay (r = 0.81). Seven null hypotheses guided the study and tested at 0.05 level of significance. Data were analyzed using Analysis of Covariance, Estimated Marginal Means and Scheffe post-hoc test. The result revealed that treatment had a significant main effect on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F(1,127) = 25.407, P < .05, η2 = .167). Students exposed to oral-written assessment had a higher achievement scores ((x ) ̅= 36.15) than those exposed to written assessment ((x ) ̅= 28.55). There was no significant main effect of gender on students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .349, P > .05, η2 = .003). The result also revealed that the effects of class was not significant on students’ students’ achievement in descriptive essay (F₍₁, ₁₂₇₎ = .679, P > .05, η2 = .006). Oral-written mode of assessment enhanced students’ achievement in a descriptive essay. It is, therefore, recommended that teachers and curriculum developers should adopt the use of oral-written assessment for better improvement of students’ achievement in a descriptive essay.

Keywords: class, gender, oral-written assessment, written assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Jean François Maniriho, Irenee Ndayambaje

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Mathematics is the foundational enabling discipline that underpins science, technology, and engineering disciplines. Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) subjects are foreseen as the engine for socio-economic transformation. Rwanda has done reforms in education aiming at empowering and preparing students for the real world job by providing career pathways in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics related fields. While that considered so, the performance in mathematics has remained deplorable in both formative and national examinations. Therefore, this paper aims at exploring the extent to which the engage, explore, explain, elaborate and evaluate (5Es) instructional model contributing towards students’ achievement in mathematics. The present study adopted the pre-test, post-test non-equivalent control group quasi-experimental design. The 5Es instructional model was applied to the experimental group while the control group received instruction with the conventional teaching method for eight weeks. One research-made instrument, mathematics achievement test (MAT), was used for data collection. A pre-test was given to students before the intervention to make sure that both groups have equivalent characteristics. At the end of the experimental period, the two groups have undergone a post-test to ascertain the contribution of the 5Es instructional model. Descriptive statistics and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) were used for the analysis of the study. For determining the improvement in mathematics, Hakes methods of calculating gain were used to analyze the pre-test and post-test scores. Results showed that students exposed to 5Es instructional model achieved significantly better performance in mathematics than students instructed using the conventional teaching method. It was also found that 5Es instructional model made lessons more interesting, easy and created friendship among students. Thus, 5Es instructional model was recommended to be adopted as a close substitute to the conventional teaching method in teaching mathematics in lower secondary schools in Rwanda.

Keywords: 5Es instructional model, achievement, conventional teaching method, mathematics

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Jan Muhammad, Saad Malik, Fadia W. Al-Azawi, Ali Imran

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In the era of climate variability, rising temperatures are the most significant aspect. In this study PRECIS model data and observed data are used for assessing the temperature change scenarios of Sindh province during the first half of present century. Observed data from various meteorological stations of Sindh are the primary source for temperature change detection. The current scenario (1961–1990) and the future one (2010-2050) are acted by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model at a spatial resolution of 25 * 25 km. Regional Climate Model (RCM) can yield reasonably suitable projections to be used for climate-scenario. The main objective of the study is to map the simulated temperature as obtained from climate model-PRECIS and their comparison with observed temperatures. The analysis is done on all the districts of Sindh in order to have a more precise picture of temperature change scenarios. According to results the temperature is likely to increases by 1.5 - 2.1°C by 2050, compared to the baseline temperature of 1961-1990. The model assesses more accurate values in northern districts of Sindh as compared to the coastal belt of Sindh. All the district of the Sindh province exhibit an increasing trend in the mean temperature scenarios and each decade seems to be warmer than the previous one. An understanding of the change in temperatures is very vital for various sectors such as weather forecasting, water, agriculture, and health, etc.

Keywords: PRECIS Model, real observed data, Arc GIS, interpolation techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Farhad Alizadeh, Alireza Faregh Gharamaleki, Mojtaba Jalilzadeh, Houshang Gholami, Ali Akhoundzadeh

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This study presented hybrid pre-processing approach along with a conceptual model to enhance the accuracy of river discharge prediction. In order to achieve this goal, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EEMD), Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) and Mutual Information (MI) were employed as a hybrid pre-processing approach conjugated to Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM). A conceptual strategy namely multi-station model was developed to forecast the Souris River discharge more accurately. The strategy used herein was capable of covering uncertainties and complexities of river discharge modeling. DWT and EEMD was coupled, and the feature selection was performed for decomposed sub-series using MI to be employed in multi-station model. In the proposed feature selection method, some useless sub-series were omitted to achieve better performance. Results approved efficiency of the proposed DWT-EEMD-MI approach to improve accuracy of multi-station modeling strategies.

Keywords: river stage-discharge process, LSSVM, discrete wavelet transform, Ensemble Empirical Decomposition Mode, multi-station modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Fariba Dortaj, Reza Asadinejad, Akram Dortaj, Atena Baziyar

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The aim of this study was to determine the effect of distance education (based on MOOC) on the components of academic engagement of Kerman PNU. The research was quasi-experimental method that cluster sampling with an appropriate volume was used in this study (one class in experimental group and one class in controlling group). Sampling method is single-stage cluster sampling. The statistical society is students of Kerman Payam Noor University, which) were selected 40 of them as sample (20 students in the control group and 20 students in experimental group). To test the hypothesis, it was used the analysis of univariate and Co-covariance to offset the initial difference (difference of control) in the experimental group and the control group. The instrument used in this study is academic engagement questionnaire of Zerang (2012) that contains component of cognitive, behavioral and motivational engagement. The results showed that there is no significant difference between mean scores of academic components of academic engagement in experimental group and the control group on the post-test, after elimination of the pre-test. The adjusted mean scores of components of academic engagement in the experimental group were higher than the adjusted average of scores after the test in the control group. The use of technology-based education in distance education has been effective in increasing cognitive engagement, motivational engagement and behavioral engagement among students. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.26, predicted 26% of cognitive engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.47, predicted 47% of the motivational engagement component variance. Experimental variable with the effect size 0.40, predicted 40% of behavioral engagement component variance. So teaching with technology (MOOC) has a positive impact on increasing academic engagement and academic performance of students in educational technology. The results suggest that technology (MOOC) is used to enrich the teaching of other lessons of PNU.

Keywords: educational technology, distance education, components of academic engagement, mooc technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Auwal Mustapha Imam

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The aim of the energy management system is to monitor and control utilization, access, optimize and manage energy availability. This can be realized through real-time analyses and energy sources and loads data control in a predictive way. Smart-home monitoring and control provide convenience and cost savings by controlling appliances, lights, thermostats and other loads. There may be different categories of loads in the various homes, and the homeowner may wish to control access to solar-generated energy to protect the storage from draining completely. Controlling the power system operation by managing the converter output power and controlling how it feeds the appliances will satisfy the residential load demand. The Internet of Things (IoT) provides an attractive technological platform to connect the two and make home automation and domestic energy utilization easier and more attractive. This paper presents the use of IoT-based control topology to monitor and control power distribution and consumption by DC loads connected to single-input multiple outputs (SIMO) DC-DC converter, thereby reducing leakages, enhancing performance and reducing human efforts. A SIMO converter was first developed and integrated with the IoT/Raspberry Pi control topology, which enables the user to monitor and control power scheduling and load forecasting via an Android app.

Keywords: flyback, converter, DC-DC, photovoltaic, SIMO

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Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: contact strip, current collector, high-speed running, program control, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Glenda Marie D. Balitaan

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The branch of business management that deals with inventory planning and control is known as inventory management. It comprises keeping track of supply levels and forecasting demand, as well as scheduling when and how to plan. Keeping excess inventory results in a loss of money, takes up physical space, and raises the risk of damage, spoilage, and loss. On the other hand, too little inventory frequently causes operations to be disrupted and raises the possibility of low customer satisfaction, both of which can be detrimental to a company's reputation. The United Victorious Feed mill Corporation's present inventory management practices were assessed in terms of inventory level, warehouse allocation, ordering frequency, shelf life, and production requirement. To help the company achieve their optimal level of inventory, a mathematical model was created using Integer Linear Programming. Due to the season, the goal function was to reduce the cost of purchasing US Soya and Yellow Corn. Warehouse space, annual production requirements, and shelf life were all considered. To ensure that the user only uses one application to record all relevant information, like production output and delivery, the researcher built a Visual Basic system. Additionally, the technology allows management to change the model's parameters.

Keywords: inventory management, integer linear programming, inventory management system, feed mill

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Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Wolfram Jahn, Jose Manuel Munita

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While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of fire scenarios are commonly used in the design of buildings, less attention has been given to the use of CFD simulations as an operational tool for the fire services. The reason of this lack of attention lies mainly in the fact that CFD simulations typically take large periods of time to complete, and their results would thus not be available in time to be of use during an emergency. Firefighters often face uncertain conditions when entering a building to attack a fire. They would greatly benefit from a technology based on predictive fire simulations, able to assist their decision-making process. The principal constraint to faster CFD simulations is the fine grid necessary to solve accurately the physical processes that govern a fire. This paper explores the possibility of overcoming this constraint and using coarse grid CFD simulations for fire scenarios, and proposes a methodology to use the simulation results in a meaningful way that can be used by the fire fighters during an emergency. Data from real scale compartment fire tests were used to compare CFD fire models with different grid arrangements, and empirical correlations were obtained to interpolate data points into the grids. The results show that the strongly predominant effect of the heat release rate of the fire on the fluid dynamics allows for the use of coarse grids with relatively low overall impact of simulation results. Simulations with an acceptable level of accuracy could be run in real time, thus making them useful as a forecasting tool for emergency response purposes.

Keywords: CFD, fire simulations, emergency response, forecast

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Authors: Gayathri Sadanala, Shibam Pokhrel, Owen Murphy

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In the ever-evolving landscape of education, Virtual Reality (VR) environments offer a promising avenue for enhancing student engagement and learning experiences. However, understanding and predicting student behavior within these immersive settings remain challenging tasks. This paper presents a comprehensive study on the predictive modeling of student behavior in VR using machine learning techniques. We introduce a rich data set capturing student interactions, movements, and progress within a VR orientation program. The dataset is divided into training and testing sets, allowing us to develop and evaluate predictive models for various aspects of student behavior, including engagement levels, task completion, and performance. Our machine learning approach leverages a combination of feature engineering and model selection to reveal hidden patterns in the data. We employ regression and classification models to predict student outcomes, and the results showcase promising accuracy in forecasting behavior within VR environments. Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical implications of our predictive models for personalized VR-based learning experiences and early intervention strategies. By uncovering the intricate relationship between student behavior and VR interactions, we provide valuable insights for educators, designers, and developers seeking to optimize virtual learning environments.

Keywords: interaction, machine learning, predictive modeling, virtual reality

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Authors: Pejman Taghibeikzadehbadr

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Background and Aim: PGC-1 alpha is a transcription factor that was first detected in brown adipose tissue. Since its discovery, PGC-1 alpha has been known to facilitate beneficial adaptations such as mitochondrial biogenesis and increased angiogenesis in skeletal muscle following aerobic exercise. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the expression of PGC-1 alpha isoforms in response to eccentric and concentric resistance training in healthy subjects. Materials and Methods: Ten healthy men were randomly divided into two groups (5 patients in eccentric group - 5 in eccentric group). Isokinetic contraction protocols included eccentric and concentric knee extension with maximum power and angular velocity of 60 degrees per second. The torques assigned to each subject were considered to match the workload in both protocols, with a rotational speed of 60 degrees per second. Contractions consisted of a maximum of 12 sets of 10 repetitions for the right leg, a rest time of 30 seconds between each set. At the beginning and end of the study, biopsy of the lateral broad muscle tissue was performed. Biopsies were performed in both distal and proximal directions of the lateral flank. To evaluate the expression of PGC1α-1 and PGC1α-4 genes, tissue analysis was performed in each group using Real-Time PCR technique. Data were analyzed using dependent t-test and covariance test. SPSS21 software and Exell 2013 software were used for data analysis. Results: The results showed that intra-group changes of PGC1α-1 after one session of activity were not significant in eccentric (p = 0.168) and concentric (p = 0.959) groups. Also, inter-group changes showed no difference between the two groups (p = 0.681). Also, intra-group changes of PGC1α-4 after one session of activity were significant in an eccentric group (p = 0.012) and concentric group (p = 0.02). Also, inter-group changes showed no difference between the two groups (p = 0.362). Conclusion: It seems that the lack of significant changes in the desired variables due to the lack of exercise pressure is sufficient to stimulate the increase of PGC1α-1 and PGC1α-4. And with regard to reviewing the answer, it seems that the compatibility debate has different results that need to be addressed.

Keywords: eccentric contraction, concentric contraction, PGC1α-1 و PGC1α-4, human subject

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Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

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Authors: Reynante E. Autida, Maria Ana T. Quimbo

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The chemistry education curriculum provides an excellent avenue where students learn the principles and concepts in chemistry and at the same time, as a central science, better understand related fields. However, the teaching approach used by teachers affects student learning. Cased-based teaching (CBT) is one of the various forms of inductive method. The teacher starts with specifics then proceeds to the general principles. The students’ role in inductive learning shifts from being passive in the traditional approach to being active in learning. In this paper, the effects of Small-Group Case-Based Teaching (SGCBT) on college chemistry students’ achievement, critical thinking, and attitude toward chemistry including the relationships between each of these variables were determined. A quasi-experimental counterbalanced design with pre-post control group was used to determine the effects of SGCBT on Engineering students of four intact classes (two treatment groups and two control groups) in one of the State Universities in Mindanao. The independent variables are the type of teaching approach (SGCBT versus pure lecture-discussion teaching or PLDT) while the dependent variables are chemistry achievement (exam scores) and scores in critical thinking and chemistry attitude. Both Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) and t-tests (within and between groups and gain scores) were used to compare the effects of SGCBT versus PLDT on students’ chemistry achievement, critical thinking, and attitude toward chemistry, while Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients were calculated to determine the relationships between each of the variables. Results show that the use of SGCBT fosters positive attitude toward chemistry and provides some indications as well on improved chemistry achievement of students compared with PLDT. Meanwhile, the effects of PLDT and SGCBT on critical thinking are comparable. Furthermore, correlational analysis and focus group interviews indicate that the use of SGCBT not only supports development of positive attitude towards chemistry but also improves chemistry achievement of students. Implications are provided in view of the recent findings on SGCBT and topics for further research are presented as well.

Keywords: case-based teaching, small-group learning, chemistry cases, chemistry achievement, critical thinking, chemistry attitude

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Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Stephania Mosquera-Lopez, Jorge Uribe

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An empirical study of market risk transmission between electricity prices in the Nord Pool interconnected market is done. Crucially, it is differentiated between risk propagation in the two tails of the price variation distribution. Thus, the downside risk from upside risk spillovers is distinguished. The results found document an asymmetric nature of risk and risk propagation in the two tails of the electricity price log variations. Risk spillovers following price increments in the market are transmitted to a larger extent than those after price reductions. Also, asymmetries related to both, the size of the transaction area and related to whether a given area behaves as a net-exporter or net-importer of electricity, are documented. For instance, on the one hand, the bigger the area of the transaction, the smaller the size of the volatility shocks that it receives. On the other hand, exporters of electricity, alongside countries with a significant dependence on renewable sources, tend to be net-transmitters of volatility to the rest of the system. Additionally, insights on the predictive power of positive and negative semivariances for future market volatility are provided. It is shown that depending on the forecasting horizon, downside and upside shocks to the market are featured by a distinctive persistence, and that upside volatility impacts more on net-importers of electricity, while the opposite holds for net-exporters.

Keywords: electricity prices, realized volatility, semivariances, volatility spillovers

Procedia PDF Downloads 152