Search results for: spillage prediction

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

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Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

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Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

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We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

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The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 286

Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Yilei Song, Linlin Tian, Ning Zhao

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Turbulence energetics and structures in the wake of large-scale wind turbines under the stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer (SABL) can be complicated due to the presence of low-level jets (LLJs), a region of higher wind speeds than the geostrophic wind speed. With a modified one-k-equation, eddy viscosity model specified for atmospheric flows as the sub-grid scale (SGS) model, a realistic atmospheric state of the stable ABL is well reproduced by large-eddy simulation (LES) techniques. Corresponding to the precursor stably stratification, the detailed wake properties of a standard 5-MW wind turbine represented as an actuator line model are provided. An engineering model is proposed for wake prediction based on the simulation statistics and gets validated. Results confirm that the proposed wake model can provide good predictions for wind turbines under the SABL.

Keywords: large-eddy simulation, stably-stratified atmospheric boundary layer, wake model, wind turbine wake

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Authors: Vijay Pal Singh, Yogesh Chandra Kotiyal

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Structures are a combination of various load carrying members which transfer the loads to the foundation from the superstructure safely. At the design stage, the loading of the structure is defined and appropriate material choices are made based upon their properties, mainly related to strength. The strength of materials kept on reducing with time because of many factors like environmental exposure and deformation caused by unpredictable external loads. Hence, to predict the strength of materials used in structures, various techniques are used. Among these techniques, Non-Destructive Techniques (NDT) are the one that can be used to predict the strength without damaging the structure. In the present study, the compressive strength of concrete has been predicted using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The predicted strength was compared with the experimentally obtained actual compressive strength of concrete and equations were developed for different models. A good co-relation has been obtained between the predicted strength by these models and experimental values. Further, the co-relation has been developed using two NDT techniques for prediction of strength by regression analysis. It was found that the percentage error has been reduced between the predicted strength by using combined techniques in place of single techniques.

Keywords: rebound, ultra-sonic pulse, penetration, ANN, NDT, regression

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Authors: K. Tejasri, K. Suvarna Vani, S. Prathyusha, S. Ramya

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Proteins are chained sequences of amino acids which are brought together by the peptide bonds. Many varying formations of the chains are possible due to multiple combinations of amino acids and rotation in numerous positions along the chain. Protein structure prediction is one of the crucial goals worked towards by the members of bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry backgrounds. Among the four different structure levels in proteins, we emphasize mainly the secondary level structure. Generally, the secondary protein basically comprises alpha-helix and beta-sheets. Multi-class classification problem of data with disparity is truly a challenge to overcome and has to be addressed for the beta strands. Imbalanced data distribution constitutes a couple of the classes of data having very limited training samples collated with other classes. The secondary structure data is extracted from the protein primary sequence, and the beta-strands are predicted using suitable machine learning algorithms.

Keywords: proteins, secondary structure elements, beta-sheets, beta-strands, alpha-helices, machine learning algorithms

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Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Piyarat Parklug, Busaba Supawattanaobodee, Penpat Pinyowattanasilp

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The radioactive iodine thyroid uptake (RAIU) has been widely used to differentiate the cause of thyrotoxicosis and treatment. Twenty-four hours RAIU is routinely used to calculate the dose of radioactive iodine (RAI) therapy; however, 2 days protocol is required. This study aims to evaluate the modification of Penpat Pinyowattanasilp equation application by the exclusion of outlier data, 3 hours RAIU less than 20% and more than 80%, to improve prediction of 24-hour uptake. The equation is predicted 24 hours RAIU (P24RAIU) = 32.5+0.702 (3 hours RAIU). Then calculating separation first and second therapeutic doses in Graves’ disease patients. Methods; This study was a retrospective study at Faculty of Medicine Vajira Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand. Inclusion were Graves’ disease patients who visited RAI clinic between January 2014-March 2019. We divided subjects into 2 groups according to first and second therapeutic doses. Results; Our study had a total of 151 patients. The study was done in 115 patients with first RAI dose and 36 patients with second RAI dose. The P24RAIU are highly correlated with actual 24-hour RAIU in first and second therapeutic doses (r = 0.913, 95% CI = 0.876 to 0.939 and r = 0.806, 95% CI = 0.649 to 0.897). Bland-Altman plot shows that mean differences between predictive and actual 24 hours RAI in the first dose and second dose were 2.14% (95%CI 0.83-3.46) and 1.37% (95%CI -1.41-4.14). The mean first actual and predictive therapeutic doses are 8.33 ± 4.93 and 7.38 ± 3.43 milliCuries (mCi) respectively. The mean second actual and predictive therapeutic doses are 6.51 ± 3.96 and 6.01 ± 3.11 mCi respectively. The predictive therapeutic doses are highly correlated with the actual dose in first and second therapeutic doses (r = 0.907, 95% CI = 0.868 to 0.935 and r = 0.953, 95% CI = 0.909 to 0.976). Bland-Altman plot shows that mean difference between predictive and actual P24RAIU in the first dose and second dose were less than 1 mCi (-0.94 and -0.5 mCi). This modification equation application is simply used in clinical practice especially patient with 3 hours RAIU in range of 20-80% in a Thai population. Before use, this equation for other population should be tested for the correlation.

Keywords: equation, Graves’disease, prediction, 24-hour uptake

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Authors: Agustyas Tjiptaningrum, Intanri Kurniati, Fadilah Fadilah, Linda Erlina, Tiwuk Susantiningsih

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Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is still one of the health problems. It can be a severe condition that is caused by a cytokine storm. In a cytokine storm, several proinflammatory cytokines are released massively. It destroys epithelial cells, and subsequently, it can cause death. The anti-inflammatory agent can be used to decrease the number of severe Covid-19 conditions. Melaleuca cajuputi is a plant that has antiviral, antibiotic, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory activities. This study was carried out to analyze the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract from Lampung, Indonesia, as an anti-inflammatory agent for COVID-19. This study constructed a database of protein host target that was involved in the inflammation process of COVID-19 using data retrieval from GeneCards with the keyword “SARS-CoV2”, “inflammation,” “cytokine storm,” and “acute respiratory distress syndrome.” Subsequent protein-protein interaction was generated by using Cytoscape version 3.9.1. It can predict the significant target protein. Then the analysis of the Gene Ontology (GO) and KEGG pathways was conducted to generate the genes and components that play a role in COVID-19. The result of this study was 30 nodes representing significant proteins, namely NF-κβ, IL-6, IL-6R, IL-2RA, IL-2, IFN2, C3, TRAF6, IFNAR1, and DOX58. From the KEGG pathway, we obtained the result that NF-κβ has a role in the production of proinflammatory cytokines, which play a role in the COVID-19 cytokine storm. It is an important factor for macrophage transcription; therefore, it will induce inflammatory gene expression that encodes proinflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, TNF-α, and IL-1β. In conclusion, the blocking of NF-κβ is the prediction mechanism of the M. cajuputi extract as an anti-inflammation agent for COVID-19.

Keywords: antiinflammation, COVID-19, cytokine storm, NF-κβ, M. cajuputi

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Authors: Antonio Monteiro, Jorge Azevedo, Severiano Silva, Alfredo Teixeira

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The objective of this study was to compare the carcass and in vivo real-time ultrasound measurements (RTU) and their capacity to predict the composition of Serrana goats up to 40% of maturity. Twenty one females (11.1 ± 3.97 kg) and Twenty one males (15.6 ± 5.38 kg) were utilized to made in vivo measurements with a 5 MHz probe (ALOKA 500V scanner) at the 9th-10th, 10th-11th thoracic vertebrae (uT910 and uT1011, respectively), at the 1st- 2nd, 3rd-4th, and 4th-5th lumbar vertebrae (uL12, ul34 and uL45, respectively) and also at the 3rd-4th sternebrae (EEST). It was recorded the images of RTU measurements of Longissimus thoracis et lumborum muscle (LTL) depth (EM), width (LM), perimeter (PM), area (AM) and subcutaneous fat thickness (SFD) above the LTL, as well as the depth of tissues of the sternum (EEST) between the 3rd-4th sternebrae. All RTU images were analyzed using the ImageJ software. After slaughter, the carcasses were stored at 4 ºC for 24 h. After this period the carcasses were divided and the left half was entirely dissected into muscle, dissected fat (subcutaneous fat plus intermuscular fat) and bone. Prior to the dissection measurements equivalent to those obtained in vivo with RTU were recorded. Using the Statistica 5, correlation and regression analyses were performed. The prediction of carcass composition was achieved by stepwise regression procedure, with live weight and RTU measurements with and without transformation of variables to the same dimension. The RTU and carcass measurements, except for SFD measurements, showed high correlation (r > 0.60, P < 0.001). The RTU measurements and the live weight, showed ability to predict carcass composition on muscle (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.001), subcutaneous fat (R2 = 0.41, P < 0.001), intermuscular fat (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.001), dissected fat (R2 = 0.71, P < 0.001) and bone (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.001). The transformation of variables allowed a slight increase of precision, but with the increase in the number of variables, with the exception of subcutaneous fat prediction. In vivo measurements by RTU can be applied to predict kid goat carcass composition, from 5 measurements of RTU and the live weight.

Keywords: carcass, goats, real time, ultrasound

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Authors: I. Alhajri, G. Zahedi, R. Alazmi, A. Akbari

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In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) was developed to predict Asphaltene Precipitation (AP) during the injection of carbon dioxide into crude oil reservoirs. In this study, the experimental data from six different oil fields were collected. Seventy percent of the data was used to develop the ANN model, and different ANN architectures were examined. A network with the Trainlm training algorithm was found to be the best network to estimate the AP. To check the validity of the proposed model, the model was used to predict the AP for the thirty percent of the data that was unevaluated. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of the prediction was 0.0018, which confirms the excellent prediction capability of the proposed model. In the second part of this study, the ANN model predictions were compared with modified Hirschberg model predictions. The ANN was found to provide more accurate estimates compared to the modified Hirschberg model. Finally, the proposed model was employed to examine the effect of different operating parameters during gas injection on the AP. It was found that the AP is mostly sensitive to the reservoir temperature. Furthermore, the carbon dioxide concentration in liquid phase increases the AP.

Keywords: artificial neural network, asphaltene, CO2 injection, Hirschberg model, oil reservoirs

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Authors: Kazeem K. Adewole

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This paper presents the finite element analysis numerical investigation of the effects of the location of across-the-width lamination on the tensile properties of rectangular wires for civil engineering applications. FE analysis revealed that the presence of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape exhibited by the lamination-free wire to a V-shaped fracture shape with an opening at the bottom/pointed end of the V-shape at the location of the mid-thickness across-the-width lamination. FE analysis also revealed that the presence of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination changes the cup and cone fracture shape of the lamination-free wire without an opening to a cup and cone fracture shape with an opening at the location of the mid-width across-the-thickness lamination. The FE fracture behaviour prediction approach presented in this work serves as a tool for failure analysis of wires with lamination at different orientations which cannot be conducted experimentally.

Keywords: across-the-width lamination, tensile properties, lamination location, wire

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Uma Maheshwari V., Rajanikanth Aluvalu, Kumar Gautam

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The COVID-19 disease is a highly contagious viral infection with major worldwide health implications. The global economy suffers as a result of COVID. The spread of this pandemic disease can be slowed if positive patients are found early. COVID-19 disease prediction is beneficial for identifying patients' health problems that are at risk for COVID. Deep learning and machine learning algorithms for COVID prediction using X-rays have the potential to be extremely useful in solving the scarcity of doctors and clinicians in remote places. In this paper, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with deep layers is presented for recognizing COVID-19 patients using real-world datasets. We gathered around 6000 X-ray scan images from various sources and split them into two categories: normal and COVID-impacted. Our model examines chest X-ray images to recognize such patients. Because X-rays are commonly available and affordable, our findings show that X-ray analysis is effective in COVID diagnosis. The predictions performed well, with an average accuracy of 99% on training photographs and 88% on X-ray test images.

Keywords: deep CNN, COVID–19 analysis, feature extraction, feature map, accuracy

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Authors: Seung Hwan Park, Cheng-Sool Park, Jun Seok Kim, Youngji Yoo, Daewoong An, Jun-Geol Baek

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Depending on the big data analysis becomes important, yield prediction using data from the semiconductor process is essential. In general, yield prediction and analysis of the causes of the failure are closely related. The purpose of this study is to analyze pattern affects the final test results using a die map based clustering. Many researches have been conducted using die data from the semiconductor test process. However, analysis has limitation as the test data is less directly related to the final test results. Therefore, this study proposes a framework for analysis through clustering using more detailed data than existing die data. This study consists of three phases. In the first phase, die map is created through fail bit data in each sub-area of die. In the second phase, clustering using map data is performed. And the third stage is to find patterns that affect final test result. Finally, the proposed three steps are applied to actual industrial data and experimental results showed the potential field application.

Keywords: die-map clustering, feature extraction, pattern recognition, semiconductor manufacturing process

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Authors: J. Balaraju, M. Govinda Raj, C. S. N. Murthy

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Every industry is constantly looking for enhancement of its day to day production and productivity. This can be possible only by maintaining the men and machinery at its adequate level. Prediction of performance characteristics plays an important role in performance evaluation of the equipment. Analytical and statistical approaches will take a bit more time to solve complex problems such as performance estimations as compared with software-based approaches. Keeping this in view the present study deals with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling of a Load-Haul-Dump (LHD) machine to predict the performance characteristics such as reliability, availability and preventive maintenance (PM). A feed-forward-back-propagation ANN technique has been used to model the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm. The performance characteristics were computed using Isograph Reliability Workbench 13.0 software. These computed values were validated using predicted output responses of ANN models. Further, recommendations are given to the industry based on the performed analysis for improvement of equipment performance.

Keywords: load-haul-dump, LHD, artificial neural network, ANN, performance, reliability, availability, preventive maintenance

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Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

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Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

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Authors: Sukhbir Singh

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This paper describes the modeling of novel solar air collector (NSAC) system by using artificial neural network (ANN) model. The objective of the study is to demonstrate the application of the ANN model to predict the performance of the NSAC with acetamide as a phase change material (PCM) storage. Input data set consist of time, solar intensity and ambient temperature wherever as outlet air temperature of NSAC was considered as output. Experiments were conducted between 9.00 and 24.00 h in June and July 2014 underneath the prevailing atmospheric condition of Kurukshetra (city of the India). After that, experimental results were utilized to train the back propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict the outlet air temperature of NSAC. The results of proposed algorithm show that the BPNN is effective tool for the prediction of responses. The BPNN predicted results are 99% in agreement with the experimental results.

Keywords: Evacuated tube solar air collector, Artificial neural network, Phase change material, solar air collector

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Misuk Kim, Seokho Kang, Jehyuk Lee, Hyunchang Cho, Sungzoon Cho

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In semiconductor manufacturing, virtual metrology (VM) refers to methods to predict properties of a wafer based on machine parameters and sensor data of the production equipment, without performing the (costly) physical measurement of the wafer properties (Wikipedia). Additional benefits include avoidance of human bias and identification of important factors affecting the quality of the process which allow improving the process quality in the future. It is however rare to find VM applied to other areas of manufacturing. In this work, we propose to use VM to copper clad laminate (CCL) manufacturing. CCL is a core element of a printed circuit board (PCB) which is used in smartphones, tablets, digital cameras, and laptop computers. The manufacturing of CCL consists of three processes: Treating, lay-up, and pressing. Treating, the most important process among the three, puts resin on glass cloth, heat up in a drying oven, then produces prepreg for lay-up process. In this process, three important quality factors are inspected: Treated weight (T/W), Minimum Viscosity (M/V), and Gel Time (G/T). They are manually inspected, incurring heavy cost in terms of time and money, which makes it a good candidate for VM application. We developed prediction models of the three quality factors T/W, M/V, and G/T, respectively, with process variables, raw material, and environment variables. The actual process data was obtained from a CCL manufacturer. A variety of variable selection methods and learning algorithms were employed to find the best prediction model. We obtained prediction models of M/V and G/T with a high enough accuracy. They also provided us with information on “important” predictor variables, some of which the process engineers had been already aware and the rest of which they had not. They were quite excited to find new insights that the model revealed and set out to do further analysis on them to gain process control implications. T/W did not turn out to be possible to predict with a reasonable accuracy with given factors. The very fact indicates that the factors currently monitored may not affect T/W, thus an effort has to be made to find other factors which are not currently monitored in order to understand the process better and improve the quality of it. In conclusion, VM application to CCL’s treating process was quite successful. The newly built quality prediction model allowed one to reduce the cost associated with actual metrology as well as reveal some insights on the factors affecting the important quality factors and on the level of our less than perfect understanding of the treating process.

Keywords: copper clad laminate, predictive modeling, quality control, virtual metrology

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Authors: Ammar Alali, Mahmoud Abughaban

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Cost reduction and drilling optimization is the goal of many drilling operators. Historically, stuck pipe incidents were a major segment of non-productive time (NPT) associated costs. Traditionally, stuck pipe problems are part of the operations and solved post-sticking. However, the real key to savings and success is in predicting the stuck pipe incidents and avoiding the conditions leading to its occurrences. Previous attempts in stuck-pipe predictions have neglected the local geology of the problem. The proposed predictive tool utilizes geophysical data processing techniques and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to predict drilling activities events in real-time using surface drilling data with minimum computational power. The method combines two types of analysis: (1) real-time prediction, and (2) cause analysis. Real-time prediction aggregates the input data, including historical drilling surface data, geological formation tops, and petrophysical data, from wells within the same field. The input data are then flattened per the geological formation and stacked per stuck-pipe incidents. The algorithm uses two physical methods (stacking and flattening) to filter any noise in the signature and create a robust pre-determined pilot that adheres to the local geology. Once the drilling operation starts, the Wellsite Information Transfer Standard Markup Language (WITSML) live surface data are fed into a matrix and aggregated in a similar frequency as the pre-determined signature. Then, the matrix is correlated with the pre-determined stuck-pipe signature for this field, in real-time. The correlation used is a machine learning Correlation-based Feature Selection (CFS) algorithm, which selects relevant features from the class and identifying redundant features. The correlation output is interpreted as a probability curve of stuck pipe incidents prediction in real-time. Once this probability passes a fixed-threshold defined by the user, the other component, cause analysis, alerts the user of the expected incident based on set pre-determined signatures. A set of recommendations will be provided to reduce the associated risk. The validation process involved feeding of historical drilling data as live-stream, mimicking actual drilling conditions, of an onshore oil field. Pre-determined signatures were created for three problematic geological formations in this field prior. Three wells were processed as case studies, and the stuck-pipe incidents were predicted successfully, with an accuracy of 76%. This accuracy of detection could have resulted in around 50% reduction in NPT, equivalent to 9% cost saving in comparison with offset wells. The prediction of stuck pipe problem requires a method to capture geological, geophysical and drilling data, and recognize the indicators of this issue at a field and geological formation level. This paper illustrates the efficiency and the robustness of the proposed cross-disciplinary approach in its ability to produce such signatures and predicting this NPT event.

Keywords: drilling optimization, hazard prediction, machine learning, stuck pipe

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Authors: Subhamita Chakraborty, Shubhabrata Datta, Sujay Kumar Mukherjea, Partha Protim Chattopadhyay

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Manufacturing of multiphase high strength steel in hot strip mill have drawn significant attention due to the possibility of forming low temperature transformation product of austenite under continuous cooling condition. In such endeavor, reliable prediction of temperature profile of hot strip coil is essential in order to accesses the evolution of microstructure at different location of hot strip coil, on the basis of corresponding Continuous Cooling Transformation (CCT) diagram. Temperature distribution profile of the hot strip coil has been determined by using finite volume method (FVM) vis-à-vis finite difference method (FDM). It has been demonstrated that FVM offer greater computational reliability in estimation of contact pressure distribution and hence the temperature distribution for curved and irregular profiles, owing to the flexibility in selection of grid geometry and discrete point position, Moreover, use of finite volume concept allows enforcing the conservation of mass, momentum and energy, leading to enhanced accuracy of prediction.

Keywords: simulation, modeling, thermal analysis, coil cooling, contact pressure, finite volume method

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Authors: Oshienemen Albert

Abstract:

Human’s activities could be pointed as the root cause of almost all environmental damages/ disasters as we contribute to the activities that are currently damaging the ozone layers (global warming), unusual environmental changes and extreme weather conditions (climate change) in recent times. Nigeria just as every other disaster-prone nation is faced with different types of disasters and environmental calamities, starting from terrorist displacement disasters, flood, drought and oil spill hazards. Oil spillage as an environmental disaster has great consequences not just on the environment but on human health, economy and the entire populace that might be involved, which deem necessary to look into the root causes of the incidents and how it can be curtailed. The different incidents of oil spillages and other oil production consequent on the environment is alarming in the Nigerian context and cannot be overemphasized without a critical investigation and synthesis. This paper investigates the root causes of environmental pollution induced by oil spill hazards from petroleum activities within Niger Delta communities of effects and detailed the potential solutions to reduce the causal factors and reoccurrence of the incidents. This study adopts a desk-based approach, interviews with key members of communities which consist of chiefs, youth leaders, and key women within the high environmental damaged communities. Also, Interviews were conducted with environmental expertise representatives from the oil and gas sectors and representatives from oil spill-related agency. Data were analyzed using thematic techniques. The study shows different influencing factors of sabotage and vandalism of oil facilities as such; marginalization, deprivation of resources utility and resource derivation principles were identified as major contributors to vandalism and sabotage act. The study proposed potential strategies to curtail the root causes of sabotage and vandalism as the major causes of environmental devastations in Nigeria.

Keywords: environment, oil spill hazards, Niger delta, Nigeria

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Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

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Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

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Authors: Chukwukelue Uzodinma Umenyilorah

Abstract:

The history of the crises in Niger-Delta is readily traceable to the post-colonial oil boom of the early 70s. Prior to this time, it was widely believed that the people of Niger-Delta; especially those in the present day Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa States enjoyed a peaceful coexistence pretty much as the rest of Nigerians. In the early 70s however, crude oil was discovered in commercial quantities in these areas and tranquility has become a far cry over the years ever since then. First, a number of multi-national oil explorers moved into the Niger-Delta for business, and then certain conditions resulted in sundry instances of oil spillage, which caused a lot of environmental damage, destroying nearly all of the people’s sources of livelihood. The result was a multiple chain reaction ranging from incessant agitations from the natives to institutionalized dialogue between the oil business owners, the natives and the government, and then to a proposition of compensation packages for the affected communities. The said compensation, which was meant to bring peace seem to have brought even more crises instead. Corruption and greed crept in, money changed hands, suffering increased and so was the agitation from the people. The whole turn of events gradually snowballed into the formation of various militant groups who are now fingered as responsible for the sundry cases of violence in the Niger-Delta. The oil boom can, therefore, be said to be the immediate cause of the Niger-Delta crises, but there are other remote causes as well; including poverty, neglect and illiteracy to mention but a few. This study is therefore aimed at examining the various reasons behind the seemingly unending crises in the Niger-Delta. It will also take a critical look at the roles played by the various parties in the Niger-Delta crises from the 70s to date; as well as the various human and environmental devastations done in the area with a view to making informed suggestions on how to stop further damage and start fixing that, which is already done. Esiaba Irobi’s Cemetery Road and Hangmen Also Die seem to vividly capture the realities of the Niger-Delta situation, and shall, therefore, be reviewed in this study.

Keywords: corruption, Niger-delta, oil boom, post-colonial

Procedia PDF Downloads 312