Search results for: mountain hazard
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 856

Search results for: mountain hazard

406 Lessons Learned through a Bicultural Approach to Tsunami Education in Aotearoa New Zealand

Authors: Lucy H. Kaiser, Kate Boersen

Abstract:

Kura Kaupapa Māori (kura) and bilingual schools are primary schools in Aotearoa/New Zealand which operate fully or partially under Māori custom and have curricula developed to include Te Reo Māori and Tikanga Māori (Māori language and cultural practices). These schools were established to support Māori children and their families through reinforcing cultural identity by enabling Māori language and culture to flourish in the field of education. Māori kaupapa (values), Mātauranga Māori (Māori knowledge) and Te Reo are crucial considerations for the development of educational resources developed for kura, bilingual and mainstream schools. The inclusion of hazard risk in education has become an important issue in New Zealand due to the vulnerability of communities to a plethora of different hazards. Māori have an extensive knowledge of their local area and the history of hazards which is often not appropriately recognised within mainstream hazard education resources. Researchers from the Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University and East Coast LAB (Life at the Boundary) in Napier were funded to collaboratively develop a toolkit of tsunami risk reduction activities with schools located in Hawke’s Bay’s tsunami evacuation zones. A Māori-led bicultural approach to developing and running the education activities was taken, focusing on creating culturally and locally relevant materials for students and schools as well as giving students a proactive role in making their communities better prepared for a tsunami event. The community-based participatory research is Māori-centred, framed by qualitative and Kaupapa Maori research methodologies and utilizes a range of data collection methods including interviews, focus groups and surveys. Māori participants, stakeholders and the researchers collaborated through the duration of the project to ensure the programme would align with the wider school curricula and kaupapa values. The education programme applied a tuakana/teina, Māori teaching and learning approach in which high school aged students (tuakana) developed tsunami preparedness activities to run with primary school students (teina). At the end of the education programme, high school students were asked to reflect on their participation, what they had learned and what they had enjoyed during the activities. This paper draws on lessons learned throughout this research project. As an exemplar, retaining a bicultural and bilingual perspective resulted in a more inclusive project as there was variability across the students’ levels of confidence using Te Reo and Māori knowledge and cultural frameworks. Providing a range of different learning and experiential activities including waiata (Māori songs), pūrākau (traditional stories) and games was important to ensure students had the opportunity to participate and contribute using a range of different approaches that were appropriate to their individual learning needs. Inclusion of teachers in facilitation also proved beneficial in assisting classroom behavioral management. Lessons were framed by the tikanga and kawa (protocols) of the school to maintain cultural safety for the researchers and the students. Finally, the tuakana/teina component of the education activities became the crux of the programme, demonstrating a path for Rangatahi to support their whānau and communities through facilitating disaster preparedness, risk reduction and resilience.

Keywords: school safety, indigenous, disaster preparedness, children, education, tsunami

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405 Measurement of Radionuclide Concentrations and Study on Transfer from Soil to Plant in Sfax-Tunisia

Authors: Sonia Machraoui, Salam Labidi, Karunakara Naregundi

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Environmental radiation measurements are useful to identify areas of potential natural radiation hazard particularly in areas of phosphate industries where enhanced radiation levels are expected to be present. Measurements of primordial radionuclides concentrations have been carried out in samples collected from Sfax City around the SIAPE phosphate industry of Tunis. The samples analysed include fish, beef meat, egg, and vegetables as well as in soil and grass. Measurements were performed by gamma spectrometry method using a 42% relative efficiency N-type HPGe detector. The activity concentrations of radionuclides were measured by gamma ray spectrometry. As expected, the concentrations of radionuclides belonging to uranium and thorium series were low in food materials. In all the samples analysed, the 137Cs concentration was below detection level, except meat samples which showed the activity concentration of 2.4 Bq kg-1 (dry wt.) The soil to grass transfer factor was found to be similar to those reported in literature. The effective dose to the population due to intake of food products were also estimated and are presented in this paper.

Keywords: effective doses, phosphate industry, transfer coefficients, Tunisia

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
404 The Association between Acupuncture Treatment and a Decreased Risk of Irritable Bowel Syndrome in Patients with Depression

Authors: Greg Zimmerman

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Background: Major depression is a common illness that affects millions of people globally. It is the leading cause of disability and is projected to become the number one cause of the global burden of disease by 2030. Many of those who suffer from depression also suffer from Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). Acupuncture has been shown to help depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of acupuncture in reducing the risk of IBS in patients with depression. Methods: We enrolled patients diagnosed with depression through the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Propensity score matching was used to match equal numbers (n=32971) of the acupuncture cohort and no-acupuncture cohort based on characteristics including sex, age, baseline comorbidity, and medication. The Cox regression model was used to compare the hazard ratios (HRs) of IBS in the two cohorts. Results: The basic characteristics of the two groups were similar. The cumulative incidence of IBS was significantly lower in the acupuncture cohort than in the no-acupuncture cohort (Log-rank test, p<0.001). Conclusion: The results provided real-world evidence that acupuncture may have a beneficial effect on IBS risk reduction in patients with depression.

Keywords: acupuncture, depression, irritable bowel syndrome, national health insurance research database, real-world evidence

Procedia PDF Downloads 107
403 Implementation of the Outputs of Computer Simulation to Support Decision-Making Processes

Authors: Jiri Barta

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At the present time, awareness, education, computer simulation and information systems protection are very serious and relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the system which is developed for communication among members of crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems, especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries, systems of European Union and international organizations where the Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information systems and computer simulations on a single communication interface of information system for communication among members of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.

Keywords: computer simulation, communication, continuity, critical infrastructure, information systems, safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
402 Application of Electrical Resistivity Tomography to Image the Subsurface Structure of a Sinkhole, a Case Study in Southwestern Missouri

Authors: Shishay T. Kidanu

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The study area is located in Southwestern Missouri and is mainly underlain by Mississippian Age limestone which is highly susceptible to karst processes. The area is known for the presence of various karst features like caves, springs and more importantly Sinkholes. Sinkholes are one of the most common karst features and the primary hazard in karst areas. Investigating the subsurface structure and development mechanism of existing sinkholes enables to understand their long-term impact and chance of reactivation and also helps to provide effective mitigation measures. In this study ERT (Electrical Resistivity Tomography), MASW (Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves) and borehole control data have been used to image the subsurface structure and investigate the development mechanism of a sinkhole in Southwestern Missouri. The study shows that the main process responsible for the development of the sinkhole is the downward piping of fine grained soils. Furthermore, the study reveals that the sinkhole developed along a north-south oriented vertical joint set characterized by a vertical zone of water seepage and associated fine grained soil piping into preexisting fractures.

Keywords: ERT, Karst, MASW, sinkhole

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401 A Bivariate Inverse Generalized Exponential Distribution and Its Applications in Dependent Competing Risks Model

Authors: Fatemah A. Alqallaf, Debasis Kundu

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The aim of this paper is to introduce a bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution which has a singular component. The proposed bivariate distribution can be used when the marginals have heavy-tailed distributions, and they have non-monotone hazard functions. Due to the presence of the singular component, it can be used quite effectively when there are ties in the data. Since it has four parameters, it is a very flexible bivariate distribution, and it can be used quite effectively for analyzing various bivariate data sets. Several dependency properties and dependency measures have been obtained. The maximum likelihood estimators cannot be obtained in closed form, and it involves solving a four-dimensional optimization problem. To avoid that, we have proposed to use an EM algorithm, and it involves solving only one non-linear equation at each `E'-step. Hence, the implementation of the proposed EM algorithm is very straight forward in practice. Extensive simulation experiments and the analysis of one data set have been performed. We have observed that the proposed bivariate inverse generalized exponential distribution can be used for modeling dependent competing risks data. One data set has been analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Keywords: Block and Basu bivariate distributions, competing risks, EM algorithm, Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution, maximum likelihood estimators

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
400 Construction and Optimization of Green Infrastructure Network in Mountainous Counties Based on Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis and Minimum Cumulative Resistance Models: A Case Study of Shapingba District, Chongqing

Authors: Yuning Guan

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Under the background of rapid urbanization, mountainous counties need to break through mountain barriers for urban expansion due to undulating topography, resulting in ecological problems such as landscape fragmentation and reduced biodiversity. Green infrastructure networks are constructed to alleviate the contradiction between urban expansion and ecological protection, promoting the healthy and sustainable development of urban ecosystems. This study applies the MSPA model, the MCR model and Linkage Mapper Tools to identify eco-sources and eco-corridors in the Shapingba District of Chongqing and combined with landscape connectivity assessment and circuit theory to delineate the importance levels to extract ecological pinch point areas on the corridors. The results show that: (1) 20 ecological sources are identified, with a total area of 126.47 km², accounting for 31.88% of the study area, and showing a pattern of ‘one core, three corridors, multi-point distribution’. (2) 37 ecological corridors are formed in the area, with a total length of 62.52km, with a ‘more in the west, less in the east’ pattern. (3) 42 ecological pinch points are extracted, accounting for 25.85% of the length of the corridors, which are mainly distributed in the eastern new area. Accordingly, this study proposes optimization strategies for sub-area protection of ecological sources, grade-level construction of ecological corridors, and precise restoration of ecological pinch points.

Keywords: green infrastructure network, morphological spatial pattern, minimal cumulative resistance, mountainous counties, circuit theory, shapingba district

Procedia PDF Downloads 46
399 The Bioaccumulation of Lead (Pb), Cadmium (Cd), and Chromium (Cr) in Relation to Personal and Social Habits in Electronic Repair Technicians in Kaduna Metropolis, Nigeria: A Pilot Study

Authors: M. A. Lawal, A. Uzairu, M. S. Sallau

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The presence and bioaccumulation of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), and chromium (Cr) in blood, urine, nail, and hair samples of electronic repair technicians in Kaduna-Nigeria were assessed using Fast Sequential Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometry. 10 electronic repair technicians from within Kaduna Metropolis volunteered for the pilot study. The mean blood concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Cr in the subjects were 29.33 ± 4.80, 7.78 ± 10.57, and 24.78 ± 21.77 µg/dL, respectively. The mean urine concentrations of Pb, Cd, and Cr were 24.18 ± 2.98, 6.81 ± 10.05, and 14.78 ± 14.20 µg/dL, respectively. Mean nail metal values of 37.13 ± 4.08, 1.00 ± 1.21, and 18.49 ± 12.71 µg/g were obtained for Pb, Cd, and Cr, respectively while mean hair metal values of 39.41 ± 5.63, 1.09 ± 1.14, and 19.13 ± 11.61 µg/g for Pb, Cd, and Cr, respectively. Positive Pearson correlation coefficients were observed between Pb/Cd, Pb/Cr, and Cd/Cr in all samples and they indicate the metals are likely from the same pollution source. The mean concentrations of the metals in all samples were higher than the WHO, ILO, and ACGIH standards, implying the repairers are likely occupationally exposed and are subject to serious health concerns. Social habits like smoking were found to significantly affect the concentrations of these metals. The level of education, use of safety devices, period of exposure, the nature of electronics and the age of the repairers were also found to remarkably affect the concentrations of the metals.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, electronic repair technicians, heavy metals, occupational hazard

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
398 Irrigation Water Quality Evaluation Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis: A Case Study of Jiaokou Irrigation District

Authors: Panpan Xu, Qiying Zhang, Hui Qian

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Groundwater is main source of water supply in the Guanzhong Basin, China. To investigate the quality of groundwater for agricultural purposes in Jiaokou Irrigation District located in the east of the Guanzhong Basin, 141 groundwater samples were collected for analysis of major ions (K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, SO42-, Cl-, HCO3-, and CO32-), pH, and total dissolved solids (TDS). Sodium percentage (Na%), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), magnesium hazard (MH), and potential salinity (PS) were applied for irrigation water quality assessment. In addition, multivariate statistical techniques were used to identify the underlying hydrogeochemical processes. Results show that the content of TDS mainly depends on Cl-, Na+, Mg2+, and SO42-, and the HCO3- content is generally high except for the eastern sand area. These are responsible for complex hydrogeochemical processes, such as dissolution of carbonate minerals (dolomite and calcite), gypsum, halite, and silicate minerals, the cation exchange, as well as evaporation and concentration. The average evaluation levels of Na%, RSC, MH, and PS for irrigation water quality are doubtful, good, unsuitable, and injurious to unsatisfactory, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary for decision makers to comprehensively consider the indicators and thus reasonably evaluate the irrigation water quality.

Keywords: irrigation water quality, multivariate statistical analysis, groundwater, hydrogeochemical process

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397 Metal Contamination in an E-Waste Recycling Community in Northeastern Thailand

Authors: Aubrey Langeland, Richard Neitzel, Kowit Nambunmee

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Electronic waste, ‘e-waste’, refers generally to discarded electronics and electrical equipment, including products from cell phones and laptops to wires, batteries and appliances. While e-waste represents a transformative source of income in low- and middle-income countries, informal e-waste workers use rudimentary methods to recover materials, simultaneously releasing harmful chemicals into the environment and creating a health hazard for themselves and surrounding communities. Valuable materials such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, ferrous metals, plastic and components are recycled from e-waste. However, persistent organic pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and some polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and heavy metals are toxicants contained within e-waste and are of great concern to human and environmental health. The current study seeks to evaluate the environmental contamination resulting from informal e-waste recycling in a predominantly agricultural community in northeastern Thailand. To accomplish this objective, five types of environmental samples were collected and analyzed for concentrations of eight metals commonly associated with e-waste recycling during the period of July 2016 through July 2017. Rice samples from the community were collected after harvest and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and gas furnace atomic spectroscopy (GF-AS). Soil samples were collected and analyzed using methods similar to those used in analyzing the rice samples. Surface water samples were collected and analyzed using absorption colorimetry for three heavy metals. Environmental air samples were collected using a sampling pump and matched-weight PVC filters, then analyzed using Inductively Coupled Argon Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectroscopy (ICAP-AES). Finally, surface wipe samples were collected from surfaces in homes where e-waste recycling activities occur and were analyzed using ICAP-AES. Preliminary1 results indicate that some rice samples have concentrations of lead and cadmium significantly higher than limits set by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Similarly, some soil samples show levels of copper, lead and cadmium more than twice the maximum permissible level set by the USDA and WHO, and significantly higher than other areas of Thailand. Surface water samples indicate that areas near e-waste recycling activities, particularly the burning of e-waste products, result in increased levels of cadmium, lead and copper in surface waters. This is of particular concern given that many of the surface waters tested are used in irrigation of crops. Surface wipe samples measured concentrations of metals commonly associated with e-waste, suggesting a danger of ingestion of metals during cooking and other activities. Of particular concern is the relevance of surface contamination of metals to child health. Finally, air sampling showed that the burning of e-waste presents a serious health hazard to workers and the environment through inhalation and deposition2. Our research suggests a need for improved methods of e-waste recycling that allows workers to continue this valuable revenue stream in a sustainable fashion that protects both human and environmental health. 1Statistical analysis to be finished in October 2017 due to follow-up field studies occurring in July and August 2017. 2Still awaiting complete analytic results.

Keywords: e-waste, environmental contamination, informal recycling, metals

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396 Sustainable Design of Coastal Bridge Networks in the Presence of Multiple Flood and Earthquake Risks

Authors: Riyadh Alsultani, Ali Majdi

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It is necessary to develop a design methodology that includes the possibility of seismic events occurring in a region, the vulnerability of the civil hydraulic structure, and the effects of the occurrence hazard on society, environment, and economy in order to evaluate the flood and earthquake risks of coastal bridge networks. This paper presents a design approach for the assessment of the risk and sustainability of coastal bridge networks under time-variant flood-earthquake conditions. The social, environmental, and economic indicators of the network are used to measure its sustainability. These consist of anticipated loss, downtime, energy waste, and carbon dioxide emissions. The design process takes into account the possibility of happening in a set of flood and earthquake scenarios that represent the local seismic activity. Based on the performance of each bridge as determined by fragility assessments, network linkages are measured. The network's connections and bridges' damage statuses after an earthquake scenario determine the network's sustainability and danger. The sustainability measures' temporal volatility and the danger of structural degradation are both highlighted. The method is shown using a transportation network in Baghdad, Iraq.

Keywords: sustainability, Coastal bridge networks, flood-earthquake risk, structural design

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395 Surveying Earthquake Vulnerabilities of District 13 of Kabul City, Afghanistan

Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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394 Multi-Spectral Deep Learning Models for Forest Fire Detection

Authors: Smitha Haridasan, Zelalem Demissie, Atri Dutta, Ajita Rattani

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Aided by the wind, all it takes is one ember and a few minutes to create a wildfire. Wildfires are growing in frequency and size due to climate change. Wildfires and its consequences are one of the major environmental concerns. Every year, millions of hectares of forests are destroyed over the world, causing mass destruction and human casualties. Thus early detection of wildfire becomes a critical component to mitigate this threat. Many computer vision-based techniques have been proposed for the early detection of forest fire using video surveillance. Several computer vision-based methods have been proposed to predict and detect forest fires at various spectrums, namely, RGB, HSV, and YCbCr. The aim of this paper is to propose a multi-spectral deep learning model that combines information from different spectrums at intermediate layers for accurate fire detection. A heterogeneous dataset assembled from publicly available datasets is used for model training and evaluation in this study. The experimental results show that multi-spectral deep learning models could obtain an improvement of about 4.68 % over those based on a single spectrum for fire detection.

Keywords: deep learning, forest fire detection, multi-spectral learning, natural hazard detection

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393 Multi-Robotic Partial Disassembly Line Balancing with Robotic Efficiency Difference via HNSGA-II

Authors: Tao Yin, Zeqiang Zhang, Wei Liang, Yanqing Zeng, Yu Zhang

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To accelerate the remanufacturing process of electronic waste products, this study designs a partial disassembly line with the multi-robotic station to effectively dispose of excessive wastes. The multi-robotic partial disassembly line is a technical upgrade to the existing manual disassembly line. Balancing optimization can make the disassembly line smoother and more efficient. For partial disassembly line balancing with the multi-robotic station (PDLBMRS), a mixed-integer programming model (MIPM) considering the robotic efficiency differences is established to minimize cycle time, energy consumption and hazard index and to calculate their optimal global values. Besides, an enhanced NSGA-II algorithm (HNSGA-II) is proposed to optimize PDLBMRS efficiently. Finally, MIPM and HNSGA-II are applied to an actual mixed disassembly case of two types of computers, the comparison of the results solved by GUROBI and HNSGA-II verifies the correctness of the model and excellent performance of the algorithm, and the obtained Pareto solution set provides multiple options for decision-makers.

Keywords: waste disposal, disassembly line balancing, multi-robot station, robotic efficiency difference, HNSGA-II

Procedia PDF Downloads 239
392 Survival Analysis Based Delivery Time Estimates for Display FAB

Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

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In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

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391 Research on Sensitivity of Geological Disasters in Road Area Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Authors: Li Yongyi

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In order to explore the distribution of geological disasters within the expressway area of Shaanxi Province, the Analytic Hierarchy Process theory is applied based on the geographic information system technology platform, and the ground elevation, rainfall, vegetation coverage and other indicators are selected for analysis, and the expressway area is sensitive Sexual evaluation. The results show that the highway area disasters in Shaanxi Province are mainly distributed in the southern mountainous areas and are dominated by landslides; the disaster area ratio basically increases with the increase in ground elevation, surface slope, surface undulation, rainfall, and vegetation coverage. The increase in the distance from the river shows a decreasing trend; after grading the disaster sensitivity within 5km of the expressway, the extremely sensitive area, the highly sensitive area, the medium sensitive area, the low sensitive area, and the extremely low sensitive area respectively account for 8.17%、15.80%、22.99%、26.22%、26.82%. Highly sensitive road areas are mainly distributed in southern Shaanxi.

Keywords: highway engineering, sensitivity, analytic hierarchy process, geological hazard, road area

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
390 Design of Target Selection for Pedestrian Autonomous Emergency Braking System

Authors: Tao Song, Hao Cheng, Guangfeng Tian, Chuang Xu

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An autonomous emergency braking system is an advanced driving assistance system that enables vehicle collision avoidance and pedestrian collision avoidance to improve vehicle safety. At present, because the pedestrian target is small, and the mobility is large, the pedestrian AEB system is faced with more technical difficulties and higher functional requirements. In this paper, a method of pedestrian target selection based on a variable width funnel is proposed. Based on the current position and predicted position of pedestrians, the relative position of vehicle and pedestrian at the time of collision is calculated, and different braking strategies are adopted according to the hazard level of pedestrian collisions. In the CNCAP standard operating conditions, comparing the method of considering only the current position of pedestrians and the method of considering pedestrian prediction position, as well as the method based on fixed width funnel and variable width funnel, the results show that, based on variable width funnel, the choice of pedestrian target will be more accurate and the opportunity of the intervention of AEB system will be more reasonable by considering the predicted position of the pedestrian target and vehicle's lateral motion.

Keywords: automatic emergency braking system, pedestrian target selection, TTC, variable width funnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
389 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant

Authors: Ian McCulloh, Andrew Placona, Darren Stewart, Daniel Gause, Kevin Kiernan, Morgan Stuart, Christopher Zinner, Laura Cartwright

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An estimated 22-25% of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. As many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
388 Empirical Green’s Function Technique for Accelerogram Synthesis: The Problem of the Use for Marine Seismic Hazard Assessment

Authors: Artem A. Krylov

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Instrumental seismological researches in water areas are complicated and expensive, that leads to the lack of strong motion records in most offshore regions. In the same time the number of offshore industrial infrastructure objects, such as oil rigs, subsea pipelines, is constantly increasing. The empirical Green’s function technique proved to be very effective for accelerograms synthesis under the conditions of poorly described seismic wave propagation medium. But the selection of suitable small earthquake record in offshore regions as an empirical Green’s function is a problem because of short seafloor instrumental seismological investigation results usually with weak micro-earthquakes recordings. An approach based on moving average smoothing in the frequency domain is presented for preliminary processing of weak micro-earthquake records before using it as empirical Green’s function. The method results in significant waveform correction for modeled event. The case study for 2009 L’Aquila earthquake was used to demonstrate the suitability of the method. This work was supported by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (project № 18-35-00474 mol_a).

Keywords: accelerogram synthesis, empirical Green's function, marine seismology, microearthquakes

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387 Bridges Seismic Isolation Using CNT Reinforced Polymer Bearings

Authors: Mohamed Attia, Vissarion Papadopoulos

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There is no doubt that there is a continuous deterioration of structures as a result of multiple hazards which can be divided into natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, floods, winds) and other hazards due to human behavior (e.g., ship collisions, excessive traffic, terrorist attacks). There have been numerous attempts to address the catastrophic consequences of these hazards and traditional solutions through structural design and safety factors within the design codes, but there has not been much research addressing solutions through the use of new materials that have high performance and can be more effective than usual materials such as reinforced concrete and steel. To illustrate the effect of one of the new high-performance materials, carbon nanotube-reinforced polymer (CNT/polymer) bearings with different weight fractions were simulated as structural components of seismic isolation using ABAQUS in the connection between a bridge superstructure and the substructure. The results of the analyzes showed a significant increase in the time period of the bridge and a clear decrease in the bending moment at the base of the bridge piers at each time step of the time-history analysis in the case of using CNT/polymer bearings compared to the case of direct contact between the superstructure of the bridge and the substructure.

Keywords: seismic isolation, bridges damage, earthquake hazard, earthquake resistant structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 197
386 Synthesis and Characterization of Renewable Resource Based Green Epoxy Coating

Authors: Sukanya Pradhan, Smita Mohanty, S. K Nayak

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Plant oils are a great renewable source for being a reliable starting material to access new products with a wide spectrum of structural and functional variations. Even though petroleum products might also render the same, but it would also impose a high risk factor of environmental and health hazard. Since epoxidized vegetable oils are easily available, eco-compatible, non-toxic and renewable, hence these have drawn much of the attentions in the polymer industrial sector especially for the development of eco-friendly coating materials. In this study a waterborne epoxy coating was prepared from epoxidized soyabean oil by using triethanolamine. Because of its hydrophobic nature, it was a tough and tedius task to make it hydrophilic. The hydrophobic biobased epoxy was modified into waterborne epoxy by the help of a plant based anhydride as curing agent. Physico-mechanical, chemical resistance tests and thermal analysis of the green coating material were carried out which showed good physic-mechanical, chemical resistance properties as well as environment friendly. The complete characterization of the final material was done in terms of scratch hardness, gloss test, impact resistance, adhesion and bend test.

Keywords: epoxidized soybean oil, waterborne, curing agent, green coating

Procedia PDF Downloads 542
385 Combined Safety and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment for Intelligent Distributed Grids

Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg

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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.

Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity

Procedia PDF Downloads 153
384 Planning Strategies for Urban Flood Mitigation through Different Case Studies of Best Practices across the World

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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383 Evaluation of Expected Annual Loss Probabilities of RC Moment Resisting Frames

Authors: Saemee Jun, Dong-Hyeon Shin, Tae-Sang Ahn, Hyung-Joon Kim

Abstract:

Building loss estimation methodologies which have been advanced considerably in recent decades are usually used to estimate socio and economic impacts resulting from seismic structural damage. In accordance with these methods, this paper presents the evaluation of an annual loss probability of a reinforced concrete moment resisting frame designed according to Korean Building Code. The annual loss probability is defined by (1) a fragility curve obtained from a capacity spectrum method which is similar to a method adopted from HAZUS, and (2) a seismic hazard curve derived from annual frequencies of exceedance per peak ground acceleration. Seismic fragilities are computed to calculate the annual loss probability of a certain structure using functions depending on structural capacity, seismic demand, structural response and the probability of exceeding damage state thresholds. This study carried out a nonlinear static analysis to obtain the capacity of a RC moment resisting frame selected as a prototype building. The analysis results show that the probability of being extensive structural damage in the prototype building is expected to 0.004% in a year.

Keywords: expected annual loss, loss estimation, RC structure, fragility analysis

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382 Probabilistic Model for Evaluating Seismic Soil Liquefaction Based on Energy Approach

Authors: Hamid Rostami, Ali Fallah Yeznabad, Mohammad H. Baziar

Abstract:

The energy-based method for evaluating seismic soil liquefaction has two main sections. First is the demand energy, which is dissipated energy of earthquake at a site, and second is the capacity energy as a representation of soil resistance against liquefaction hazard. In this study, using a statistical analysis of recorded data by 14 down-hole array sites in California, an empirical equation was developed to estimate the demand energy at sites. Because determination of capacity energy at a site needs to calculate several site calibration factors, which are obtained by experimental tests, in this study the standard penetration test (SPT) N-value was assumed as an alternative to the capacity energy at a site. Based on this assumption, the empirical equation was employed to calculate the demand energy for 193 liquefied and no-liquefied sites and then these amounts were plotted versus the corresponding SPT numbers for all sites. Subsequently, a discrimination analysis was employed to determine the equations of several boundary curves for various liquefaction likelihoods. Finally, a comparison was made between the probabilistic model and the commonly used stress method. As a conclusion, the results clearly showed that energy-based method can be more reliable than conventional stress-based method in evaluation of liquefaction occurrence.

Keywords: energy demand, liquefaction, probabilistic analysis, SPT number

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381 Risk Reduction of Household Refuse, a Case Study of Shagari Low-Cost, Mubi North (LGA) Adamawa State, Nigeria

Authors: Maryam Tijjani Kolo

Abstract:

Lack of refuse dumping points has made the residents of Shagari low-cost well armed with some health and environmental related hazards. These studies investigate the effect of household refuse on the resident of Shagari low-cost. A well structured questionnaire was administered to elicit views of the respondent in the study area through adopting cluster sampling method. A total of 100 questionnaires were selected and divided into 50, each to both sections of the study area. Interview was conducted to each household head. Data obtained were analyzed using simple parentages to determine the major hazard in the area. Result showed that majority of the household are civil servant and traders, earning reasonable monthly income. 68% of the respondent has experienced the effect of living close to waste dumping areas, which include unpleasant smell and polluted smoke when refuse is burnt, which causes eye and respiratory induction, human injury from broken bottles or sharp objects as well as water, insect and air borne diseases. Hence, the need to urgently address these menace before it overwhelms the capacities of the community becomes paramount. Thus, the community should be given more enlightenment and refuse dumping sites should be created by the local government area.

Keywords: household, refuse, refuse dumping points, Shagari low-cost

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380 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index

Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

Abstract:

Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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379 Parameters Adjustment of the Modified UBCSand Constitutive Model for the Potentially Liquefiable Sands of Santiago de Cali-Colombia

Authors: Daniel Rosero, Johan S. Arana, Sebastian Arango, Alejandro Cruz, Isabel Gomez-Gutierrez, Peter Thomson

Abstract:

Santiago de Cali is located in the southwestern Colombia in a high seismic hazard zone. About 50% of the city is on the banks of the Cauca River, which is the second most important hydric affluent in the country and whose alluvial deposits contain potentially liquefiable sands. Among the methods used to study a site's liquefaction potential is the finite elements method which use constitutive models to simulate the soil response for different load types. Among the different constitutive models, the Modified UBCSand stands out to study the seismic behavior of sands, and especially the liquefaction phenomenon. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of a potentially liquefiable sand of Santiago de Cali is studied by cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. Subsequently, the behavior of the sand is simulated using the Modified UBCSand constitutive model, whose parameters are calibrated using the results of cyclic triaxial and CPTu tests. The above with the aim of analyze the constitutive model applicability for studying the geotechnical problems associated to liquefaction in the city.

Keywords: constitutive model, cyclic triaxial test, dynamic behavior, liquefiable sand, modified ubcsand

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378 Reclamation of Molding Sand: A Chemical Approach to Recycle Waste Foundry Sand

Authors: Mohd Moiz Khan, S. M. Mahajani, G. N. Jadhav

Abstract:

Waste foundry sand (total clay content 15%) contains toxic heavy metals and particulate matter which make dumping of waste sand an environmental and health hazard. Disposal of waste foundry sand (WFS) remains one of the substantial challenges faced by Indian foundries nowadays. To cope up with this issue, the chemical method was used to reclaim WFS. A stirrer tank reactor was used for chemical reclamation. Experiments were performed to reduce the total clay content from 15% to as low as 0.9% in chemical reclamation. This method, although found to be effective for WFS reclamation, it may face a challenge due to the possibly high operating cost. Reclaimed sand was found to be satisfactory in terms of sand qualities such as total clay (0.9%), active clay (0.3%), acid demand value (ADV) (2.6%), loss on igniting (LOI) (3 %), grain fineness number (GFN) (56), and compressive strength (60 kPa). The experimental data generated on chemical reactor under different conditions is further used to optimize the design and operating parameters (rotation speed, sand to acidic solution ratio, acid concentration, temperature and time) for the best performance. The use of reclaimed sand within the foundry would improve the economics and efficiency of the process and reduce environmental concerns.

Keywords: chemical reclamation, clay content, environmental concerns, recycle, waste foundry sand

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377 Enhance Biogas Production by Enzymatic Pre-Treatment from Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME)

Authors: M. S. Tajul Islam, Md. Zahangir Alam

Abstract:

To enhance biogas production through anaerobic digestion, the application of various type of pre-treatment method has some limitations in terms of sustainable environmental management. Many studies on pretreatments especially chemical and physical processes are carried out to evaluate the anaerobic digestion for enhanced biogas production. Among the pretreatment methods acid and alkali pre-treatments gained the highest importance. Previous studies have showed that although acid and alkali pretreatment has significant effect on degradation of biomass, these methods have some negative impact on environment due to their hazard in nature while enzymatic pre-treatment is environmentally friendly. One of the constrains to use of enzyme in pretreatment process for biogas production is high cost which is currently focused to reduce cost through fermentation of waste-based media. As such palm oil mill effluent (POME) as an abundant resource generated during palm oil processing at mill is being used a potential fermentation media for enzyme production. This low cost of enzyme could be an alternative to biogas pretreatment process. This review is to focus direct application of enzyme as enzymatic pre-treatment on POME to enhanced production of biogas.

Keywords: POME, enzymatic pre-treatment, biogas, lignocellulosic biomass, anaerobic digestion

Procedia PDF Downloads 550