Search results for: the applying models and sufficiency development

Authors: Nurudeen O. Lasisi, Sirajo Abdulrahman, Abdulkareem A. Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with the virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of the modeling of the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. The comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate and novel quarantine-adjusted incident rate in the models are discussed. The dynamics of the models yield disease-free and endemic equilibrium states.The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact of an individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models and we found that the stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, Endemic state, Mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Robson da C. Santos, Carlos Henrique de A. S. P. Coutinho, Lucas Moreira Dias, Gerson Gomes Cunha

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The article refers to the development of an augmented reality 3D display, through the control of servo motors and projection of image with aid of video projector on the model. Augmented Reality is a branch that explores multiple approaches to increase real-world view by viewing additional information along with the real scene. The article presents the broad use of electrical, electronic, mechanical and industrial automation for geospatial visualizations, applications in mathematical models with the visualization of functions and 3D surface graphics and volumetric rendering that are currently seen in 2D layers. Application as a 3D display for representation and visualization of Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and Digital Surface Models (DSM), where it can be applied in the identification of canyons in the marine area of the Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The same can execute visualization of regions subject to landslides, as in Serra do Mar - Agra dos Reis and Serranas cities both in the State of Rio de Janeiro. From the foregoing, loss of human life and leakage of oil from pipelines buried in these regions may be anticipated in advance. The physical design consists of a table consisting of a 9 x 16 matrix of servo motors, totalizing 144 servos, a mesh is used on the servo motors for visualization of the models projected by a retro projector. Each model for by an image pre-processing, is sent to a server to be converted and viewed from a software developed in C # Programming Language.

Keywords: visualization, 3D models, servo motors, C# programming language

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Dinamarie Fonzone

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Employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) strategic decision-making processes rely on financial analysis to guide leadership in choosing plans that will produce optimal organizational spending outcomes. These financial decision-making methods have not abated ESI costs. Previously unrecognized external social determinants, the impact on ESI plan spending, and other organizational strategies are emerging and are important considerations for organizational decision-makers and change management practitioners. The purpose of thisstudy is to examine the relationship between the social determinants of health (SDoH), employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) plans, andthe unintended consequence of health inequity. A quantitative research design using selectemployee records from an existing employer human capital management database will be analyzed. Statistical regressionmethods will be used to study the relationships between certainSDoH (employee income, neighborhood geographic living area, and health care access) and health plan utilization, cost, and chronic disease prevalence. The discussion will include an application of the social gradient of health theory to the study findings, organizational transformation through changes in ESI decision-making mental models, and the connection of ESI health inequity to organizational development and changediversity, equity, and inclusion strategies.

Keywords: employer-sponsored health insurance, social determinants of health, health inequity, mental models, organizational development, organizational change, social gradient of health theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Ashenafi Beyene Fanta, Daniel Makina

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Economic theory predicts that finance promotes economic growth. Although the finance-growth link is among the most researched areas in financial economics, our understanding of the link between the two is still incomplete. This is caused by, among others, wrong econometric specifications, using weak proxies of financial development, and inability to address the endogeneity problem. Studies on the finance growth link in South Africa consistently report economic growth driving financial development. Early studies found that economic growth drives financial development in South Africa, and recent studies have confirmed this using different econometric models. However, the monetary aggregate (i.e. M2) utilized used in these studies is considered a weak proxy for financial development. Furthermore, the fact that the models employed do not address the endogeneity problem in the finance-growth link casts doubt on the validity of the conclusions. For this reason, the current study examines the finance growth link in South Africa using data for the period 1990 to 2011 by employing a generalized method of moments (GMM) technique that is capable of addressing endogeneity, simultaneity and omitted variable bias problems. Unlike previous cross country and country case studies that have also used the same technique, our contribution is that we account for the development of bond markets and non-bank financial institutions rather than being limited to stock market and banking sector development. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non-bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our findings show that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that bond markets rather than private credit and stock market development promotes economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity markets are unable to play. Crucially, our results support observations in the literature that using appropriate measures of financial development is critical for policy advice. They also support the suggestion that individual elements of the financial system need to be studied separately to consider their unique roles in advancing economic growth. We believe that our understanding of the channels through which bond market contribute to growth would be a fertile ground for future research.

Keywords: bond market, finance, financial sector, growth

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Authors: Camille Van Eupen, Dirk Maes, Marc Herremans, Kristijn R. R. Swinnen, Ben Somers, Stijn Luca

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In ecology, species distribution models are commonly implemented to study species-environment relationships. These models increasingly rely on opportunistic citizen science data when high-quality species records collected through standardized recording protocols are unavailable. While these opportunistic data are abundant, uncertainty is usually high, e.g., due to observer effects or a lack of metadata. Data quality filtering is often used to reduce these types of uncertainty in an attempt to increase the value of studies relying on opportunistic data. However, filtering should not be performed blindly. In this study, recommendations are built for data quality filtering of opportunistic species occurrence data that are used as input for species distribution models. Using an extensive database of 5.7 million citizen science records from 255 species in Flanders, the impact on model performance was quantified by applying three data quality filters, and these results were linked to species traits. More specifically, presence records were filtered based on record attributes that provide information on the observation process or post-entry data validation, and changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were analyzed using the Maxent algorithm with and without filtering. Controlling for sample size enabled us to study the combined impact of data quality filtering, i.e., the simultaneous impact of an increase in data quality and a decrease in sample size. Further, the variation among species in their response to data quality filtering was explored by clustering species based on four traits often related to data quality: commonness, popularity, difficulty, and body size. Findings show that model performance is affected by i) the quality of the filtered data, ii) the proportional reduction in sample size caused by filtering and the remaining absolute sample size, and iii) a species ‘quality profile’, resulting from a species classification based on the four traits related to data quality. The findings resulted in recommendations on when and how to filter volunteer generated and opportunistically collected data. This study confirms that correctly processed citizen science data can make a valuable contribution to ecological research and species conservation.

Keywords: citizen science, data quality filtering, species distribution models, trait profiles

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, turkey

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Authors: Ananchai Ukaew, Choopong Chauypen

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Design concepts of real-time embedded system can be realized initially by introducing novel design approaches. In this literature, model based design approach and in-the-loop testing were employed early in the conceptual and preliminary phase to formulate design requirements and perform quick real-time verification. The design and analysis methodology includes simulation analysis, model based testing, and in-the-loop testing. The design of conceptual drive-by-wire, or DBW, algorithm for electronic control unit, or ECU, was presented to demonstrate the conceptual design process, analysis, and functionality evaluation. The concepts of DBW ECU function can be implemented in the vehicle system to improve electric vehicle, or EV, conversion drivability. However, within a new development process, conceptual ECU functions and parameters are needed to be evaluated. As a result, the testing system was employed to support conceptual DBW ECU functions evaluation. For the current setup, the system components were consisted of actual DBW ECU hardware, electric vehicle models, and control area network or CAN protocol. The vehicle models and CAN bus interface were both implemented as real-time applications where ECU and CAN protocol functionality were verified according to the design requirements. The proposed system could potentially benefit in performing rapid real-time analysis of design parameters for conceptual system or software algorithm development.

Keywords: drive-by-wire ECU, in-the-loop testing, model-based design, real-time embedded system

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Authors: Oluwatosin Olofintoye, Josiah Adeyemo, Gbemileke Shomade

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The relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface water hydrology therefore the understanding and development of accurate rainfall-runoff models and their applications in water resources planning, management and operation are of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This paper reviews some of the previous works on the rainfall-runoff process modeling. The hydrologic applications of conceptual models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the precipitation-runoff process modeling were studied. Gradient training methods such as error back-propagation (BP) and evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are discussed in relation to the training of artificial neural networks and it is shown that application of EAs to artificial neural networks training could be an alternative to other training methods. Therefore, further research interest to exploit the abundant expert knowledge in the area of artificial intelligence for the solution of hydrologic and water resources planning and management problems is needed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, gradient training method, rainfall-runoff model

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Mohammed Alanazi, Dimitrios Tsagdis

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Established Business Excellence Models (BEMs), like the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award (MBNQA) model and the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) model, have been adopted by firms all over the world. They exist alongside more recent country-specific BEMs; e.g. the Australian, Canadian, China, New Zealand, Singapore, and Taiwan quality awards that although not as widespread as MBNQA and EFQM have nonetheless strong national followings. Regardless of any differences in their following or prestige, the emergence and development of all BEMs have been shaped both by their local context (e.g. underlying socio-economic dynamics) as well as by global best practices. Besides such similarities, that render them into objects (i.e. models) of the same class (i.e. BEMs), BEMs exhibit non-trivial differences in their criteria, relations, and emphasis. Given the evolution of BEMs (e.g. the MBNQA underwent seven evolutions since its inception in 1987 while the EFQM five since 1993), it is unsurprising that comparative studies of their validity are few and far in between. This poses challenges for practitioners and policy makers alike; as it is not always clear which BEM is to be preferred or better fitting to a particular context. Especially, in contexts that differ substantially from the original context of BEM development. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting a research design and measurement model for comparing BEMs using quantitative methods (e.g. structural equations). Three BEMs will be focused upon in particular for illustration purposes; the MBNQA, the EFQM, and the King Abdul Aziz Quality Award (KAQA) model. They have been selected so to reflect the two established and widely spread traditions as well as a more recent context-specific arrival promising a better fit.

Keywords: Baldrige, business excellence, European Foundation for Quality Management, Structural Equation Model, total quality management

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Authors: Sahl Abdullah Waheeb

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The Ministry of Higher Education is currently developing and executing a large number of university buildings and campuses Al around Saudi Arabia annually due to the increased number of students. This is carried out through high international standards. Energy and environmental issues have been given a lot of consideration so the operation will be economical, environmentally and socially efficient enough. This paper will shed light on the application of building sustainability standards on buildings and university campuses during the design and construction stage. University campuses and buildings are currently under major construction development. In this research, data for green building standards were collected and a building sustainability methodology was appointed for applying sustainable standards, recommend to all is inserted imparting a guidelines standards for university buildings. Architecture design and construction imparting were assisted by environmental criteria. This paper highly recommends applying an environmental and sustainable building measurement tool in Saudi Arabia. Special attention should be paid to university building and similar project organizers due to the high energy demand in such project organizers. Moreover, a national environmental programme should be created to set the related standards to the local architecture to be applied to measuring green building and sustainable architecture design in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: sustainable universities, university buildings, sustainability in Saudi Arabia, green buildings, sustainable building

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Authors: S. Fröhlich, M. Herold, M. Allmer

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Early stage quantitative analysis of host cell protein (HCP) variations is challenging yet necessary for comprehensive bioprocess development. High resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) provides a high-end technology for accurate identification alongside with quantitative information. Hereby we describe a flexible HRMS assay platform to quantify HCPs relevant in microbial expression systems such as E. Coli in both up and downstream development by means of MVDA tools. Cell pellets were lysed and proteins extracted, purified samples not further treated before applying the SMART tryptic digest kit. Peptides separation was optimized using an RP-UHPLC separation platform. HRMS-MSMS analysis was conducted on an Orbitrap Velos Elite applying CID. Quantification was performed label-free taking into account ionization properties and physicochemical peptide similarities. Results were analyzed using SIEVE 2.0 (Thermo Fisher Scientific) and SIMCA (Umetrics AG). The developed HRMS platform was applied to an E. Coli expression set with varying productivity and the corresponding downstream process. Selected HCPs were successfully quantified within the fmol range. Analysing HCP networks based on pattern analysis facilitated low level quantification and enhanced validity. This approach is of high relevance for high-throughput screening experiments during upstream development, e.g. for titer determination, dynamic HCP network analysis or product characterization. Considering the downstream purification process, physicochemical clustering of identified HCPs is of relevance to adjust buffer conditions accordingly. However, the technology provides an innovative approach for label-free MS based quantification relying on statistical pattern analysis and comparison. Absolute quantification based on physicochemical properties and peptide similarity score provides a technological approach without the need of sophisticated sample preparation strategies and is therefore proven to be straightforward, sensitive and highly reproducible in terms of product characterization.

Keywords: process analytical technology, mass spectrometry, process characterization, MVDA, pattern recognition

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Authors: Pablo Martinez, Emad Mohamed, Osama Mohsen, Yasser Mohamed

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Highway and bridge agencies, such as the Ministry of Transportation in Ontario, use the Bridge Condition Index (BCI) which is defined as the weighted condition of all bridge elements to determine the rehabilitation priorities for its bridges. Therefore, accurate forecasting of BCI is essential for bridge rehabilitation budgeting planning. The large amount of data available in regard to bridge conditions for several years dictate utilizing traditional mathematical models as infeasible analysis methods. This research study focuses on investigating different classification models that are developed to predict the bridge condition index in the province of Ontario, Canada based on the publicly available data for 2800 bridges over a period of more than 10 years. The data preparation is a key factor to develop acceptable classification models even with the simplest one, the k-NN model. All the models were tested, compared and statistically validated via cross validation and t-test. A simple k-NN model showed reasonable results (within 0.5% relative error) when predicting the bridge condition in an incoming year.

Keywords: asset management, bridge condition index, data mining, forecasting, infrastructure, knowledge discovery in databases, maintenance, predictive models

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Authors: Mohd Adib Abd Muin, Shuhairimi Abdullah, Azizan Bahari

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Problem: The research problem is lacking of model on social entrepreneurship that focus on Islamic perspective. Objective: The objective of this paper is to analyse the existing model on social entrepreneurship and to identify the research gap on Islamic perspective from existing models. Research Methodology: The research method used in this study is literature review and comparative analysis from 6 existing models of social entrepreneurship. Finding: The research finding shows that 6 existing models on social entrepreneurship has been analysed and it shows that the existing models on social entrepreneurship do not emphasize on Islamic perspective.

Keywords: social entrepreneurship, Islamic perspective, research gap, business management

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Authors: Ehsan Daryadel, Hamid Shakeri

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Good governance is considered as one of the necessary prerequisites for promotion of sustainable development programs in countries. Theoretical model of good governance is going to form the best methods for administration and management of subject country. The importance of maintaining the balance between the needs of present and future generation through sustainable development caused a change in method of management and providing service for citizens that is addressed as the most efficient and effective way of administration of countries. This method is based on democratic and equal-seeking sustainable development which is trying to affect all actors in this area and also be accountable to all citizens’ needs. Meanwhile, it should be noted that good governance is a prerequisite for sustainable development. In fact, good governance means impact of all actors on administration and management of the country for fulfilling public services, general needs of citizens and establishing a balance and harmony between needs of present and future generation. In the present study, efforts have been made to present concepts, definitions, purposes and indices of good governance with a descriptive-analytical method.

Keywords: accountability, efficiency and effectiveness, good governance, rule of law, transparency

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Authors: Bowen Ding, Yihao Kuang

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In recent years, with the development of large-scale pre-trained lan-guage models, building vector representations of text through deep neural network models has become a standard practice for natural language processing tasks. From the performance on downstream tasks, we can know that the text representation constructed by these models contains linguistic information, but its encoding mode and extent are unclear. In this work, a structural probe is proposed to detect whether the vector representation produced by a deep neural network is embedded with a syntax tree. The probe is trained with the deep metric learning method, so that the distance between word vectors in the metric space it defines encodes the distance of words on the syntax tree, and the norm of word vectors encodes the depth of words on the syntax tree. The experiment results on ELMo and BERT show that the syntax tree is encoded in their parameters and the word representations they produce.

Keywords: deep metric learning, syntax tree probing, natural language processing, word representations

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: H. Jung, N. Kim, B. Kang, J. Choe

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History matching is a crucial procedure for predicting reservoir performances and making future decisions. However, it is difficult due to uncertainties of initial reservoir models. Therefore, it is important to have reliable initial models for successful history matching of highly heterogeneous reservoirs such as channel reservoirs. In this paper, we proposed a novel scheme for regenerating geological models using support vector machine (SVM) and principal component analysis (PCA). First, we perform PCA for figuring out main geological characteristics of models. Through the procedure, permeability values of each model are transformed to new parameters by principal components, which have eigenvalues of large magnitude. Secondly, the parameters are projected into two-dimensional plane by multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) based on Euclidean distances. Finally, we train an SVM classifier using 20% models which show the most similar or dissimilar well oil production rates (WOPR) with the true values (10% for each). Then, the other 80% models are classified by trained SVM. We select models on side of low WOPR errors. One hundred channel reservoir models are initially generated by single normal equation simulation. By repeating the classification process, we can select models which have similar geological trend with the true reservoir model. The average field of the selected models is utilized as a probability map for regeneration. Newly generated models can preserve correct channel features and exclude wrong geological properties maintaining suitable uncertainty ranges. History matching with the initial models cannot provide trustworthy results. It fails to find out correct geological features of the true model. However, history matching with the regenerated ensemble offers reliable characterization results by figuring out proper channel trend. Furthermore, it gives dependable prediction of future performances with reduced uncertainties. We propose a novel classification scheme which integrates PCA, MDS, and SVM for regenerating reservoir models. The scheme can easily sort out reliable models which have similar channel trend with the reference in lowered dimension space.

Keywords: history matching, principal component analysis, reservoir modelling, support vector machine

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Authors: Nebila Lichiheb, LaToya Myles, William Pendergrass, Bruce Hicks, Dawson Cagle

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Atmospheric transport of hazardous materials in urban areas is increasingly under investigation due to the potential impact on human health and the environment. In response to health and safety concerns, several dispersion models have been developed to analyze and predict the dispersion of hazardous contaminants. The models of interest usually rely on meteorological information obtained from the meteorological models of NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS). However, due to the complexity of the urban environment, NWS forecasts provide an inadequate basis for dispersion computation in urban areas. A dense meteorological network in Washington, DC, called DCNet, has been operated by NOAA since 2003 to support the development of urban monitoring methodologies and provide the driving meteorological observations for atmospheric transport and dispersion models. This study focuses on the comparison of wind observations from the DCNet station on the U.S. Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building against the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model outputs for the period 2017-2019. The goal is to develop a simple methodology for modifying NAM outputs so that the dispersion requirements of the city and its urban area can be satisfied. This methodology will allow us to quantify the prediction errors of the NAM model and propose adjustments of key variables controlling dispersion model calculation.

Keywords: meteorological data, Washington D.C., DCNet data, NAM model

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Authors: G. Sevilla, S. Zapata, F. Giraldo, E. Torres, C. Collazos

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This work describes a framework for teaching of global software engineering (GSE) in university undergraduate programs. This framework proposes a method of teaching that incorporates adequate techniques of software requirements elicitation and validated tools of communication, critical aspects to global software development scenarios. The use of proposed framework allows teachers to simulate small software development companies formed by Latin American students, which build information systems. Students from three Latin American universities played the roles of engineers by applying an iterative development of a requirements specification in a global software project. The proposed framework involves the use of a specific purpose Wiki for asynchronous communication between the participants of the process. It is also a practice to improve the quality of software requirements that are formulated by the students. The additional motivation of students to participate in these practices, in conjunction with peers from other countries, is a significant additional factor that positively contributes to the learning process. The framework promotes skills for communication, negotiation, and other complementary competencies that are useful for working on GSE scenarios.

Keywords: requirements analysis, distributed requirements engineering, practical experiences, collaborative support

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Authors: Vladimir A. Todiras

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Spatio-temporal models provide new possibilities for real-time action in pest risk analysis. It should be noted that estimation of the possibility and probability of introduction of a pest and of its economic consequences involves many uncertainties. We present a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk using online BioClass software. BioClass is a GIS tool designed to solve multiple-criteria classification and optimization problems based on fuzzy logic and level set methods. This research describes a method for predicting the potential establishment and spread of a plant pest into new areas using a case study: corn rootworm (Diabrotica spp.), tomato leaf miner (Tuta absoluta) and plum fruit moth (Grapholita funebrana). Our study demonstrated that in BioClass we can combine fuzzy logic and geographic information systems with knowledge of pest biology and environmental data to derive new information for decision making. Pests are sensitive to a warming climate, as temperature greatly affects their survival and reproductive rate and capacity. Changes have been observed in the distribution, frequency and severity of outbreaks of Helicoverpa armigera on tomato. BioClass has demonstrated to be a powerful tool for applying dynamic models and map the potential future distribution of a species, enable resource to make decisions about dangerous and invasive species management and control.

Keywords: classification, model, pest, risk

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Authors: Dina Tamazin, Nicoleta Tipi, Sahar Validi

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The oil refining industry plays vital role in the world economy. Oil refining companies operate in a more complex and dynamic environment than ever before. In addition, oil refining companies and the public are becoming more conscious of crude oil scarcity and climate changes. Hence, sustainability in the oil refining industry is becoming increasingly critical to the industry's long-term viability and to the environmental sustainability. Mainly, it is relevant to the measurement and evaluation of the company's sustainable performance to support the company in understanding their performance and its implication more objectively and establishing sustainability development plans. Consequently, the oil refining companies attempt to re-engineer their supply chain to meet the sustainable goals and standards. On the other hand, this research realized that previous research in oil refining sustainable supply chain performance measurements reveals that there is a lack of studies that consider the integration of sustainability in the supply chain performance measurement practices in the oil refining industry. Therefore, there is a need for research that provides performance guidance, which can be used to measure sustainability and assist in setting sustainable goals for oil refining supply chains. Accordingly, this paper aims to present a comprehensive oil refining sustainable supply chain performance measurement theoretical framework. In development of this theoretical framework, the main characteristics of oil refining industry have been identified. For this purpose, a thorough review of relevant literature on performance measurement models and sustainable supply chain performance measurement models has been conducted. The comprehensive oil refining sustainable supply chain performance measurement theoretical framework introduced in this paper aims to assist oil refining companies in measuring and evaluating their performance from a sustainability aspect to achieve sustainable operational excellence.

Keywords: oil refining industry, oil refining sustainable supply chain, performance measurement, sustainability

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Authors: Oloruntegbe Kunle Oke, Alake Ese Monica, Odutuyi Olubu Musili

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This research explores the differing effectiveness of cascade and cluster models in professional development programs for educators in Ondo State, Nigeria. The cascade model emphasizes a top-down approach, where training is cascaded from expert trainers to lower levels of teachers. In contrast, the cluster model, a bottom-up approach, fosters collaborative learning among teachers within specific clusters. Through a review of the literature and empirical studies of the implementations of the former in two academic sessions followed by the cluster model in another two, the study examined their effectiveness on teacher development, productivity and students’ achievements. The study also drew a comparative analysis of the strengths and weaknesses associated with each model, considering factors such as scalability, cost-effectiveness, adaptability in various contexts, and sustainability. 2500 teachers from Ondo State Primary Schools participated in the cascade with intensive training in five zones for a week each in two academic sessions. On the other hand, 1,980 and 1,663 teachers in 52 and 34 clusters, respectively, were in the first and the following session. The programs were designed for one week of rigorous training of teachers by facilitators in the former while the latter was made up of four components: sit-in-observation, need-based assessment workshop, pre-cluster and the actual cluster meetings in addition to sensitization, and took place one day a week for ten weeks. Validated Cluster Impact Survey Instruments, CISI and Teacher’s Assessment Questionnaire (TAQ) were administered to ascertain the effectiveness of the models during and after implementation. The findings from the literature detailed specific effectiveness, strengths and limitations of each approach, especially the potential for inconsistencies and resistance to change. Findings from the data collected revealed the superiority of the cluster model. Response to TAQ equally showed content knowledge and skill update in both but were more sustained in the cluster model. Overall, the study contributes to the ongoing discourse on effective strategies for improving teacher training and enhancing student outcomes, offering practical recommendations for the development and implementation of future professional development projects.

Keywords: cascade model, cluster model, teachers’ development, productivity, students’ achievement

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Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi, Abdulkareem Afolabi Ibrahim

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Newcastle disease is an infection of domestic poultry and other bird species with virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV). In this paper, we study the dynamics of modeling the Newcastle disease virus (NDV) using a novel quarantine-adjusted incidence. We do a comparison of Vaccination, linear incident rate, and novel quarantine adjusted incident rate in the models. The dynamics of the models yield disease free and endemic equilibrium states. The effective reproduction numbers of the models are computed in order to measure the relative impact for the individual bird or combined intervention for effective disease control. We showed the local and global stability of endemic equilibrium states of the models, and we found that stability of endemic equilibrium states of models are globally asymptotically stable if the effective reproduction numbers of the models equations are greater than a unit.

Keywords: effective reproduction number, endemic state, mathematical model, Newcastle disease virus, novel quarantine-adjusted incidence, stability analysis

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Authors: Ahmed El-Banbi

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Several PVT models exist to represent how PVT properties are handled in sub-surface and surface engineering calculations for oil and gas production. The most commonly used models include black oil, modified black oil (MBO), and compositional models. These models are used in calculations that allow engineers to optimize and forecast well and reservoir performance (e.g., reservoir simulation calculations, material balance, nodal analysis, surface facilities, etc.). The choice of which model is dependent on fluid type and the production process (e.g., depletion, water injection, gas injection, etc.). Based on close to 2,000 reservoir fluid samples collected from different basins and locations, this paper presents some conclusions on the occurrence of reservoir fluids. It also reviews the common methods used to classify reservoir fluid types. Based on new criteria related to the production behavior of different fluids and economic considerations, an updated classification of reservoir fluid types is presented in the paper. Recommendations on the use of different PVT models to simulate the behavior of different reservoir fluid types are discussed. Each PVT model requirement is highlighted. Available methods for the calculation of PVT properties from each model are also discussed. Practical recommendations and tips on how to control the calculations to achieve the most accurate results are given.

Keywords: PVT models, fluid types, PVT properties, fluids classification

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Authors: Meng-Fei Cheng, Wei-Lun Chen, Han-Chang Ma, Chi-Che Tsai

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Recent K–12 Taiwan Science Education Curriculum Guideline emphasize the essential role of modeling curriculum in science learning; however, few modeling curricula have been designed and adopted in current science teaching. Therefore, this study aims to develop modeling curriculum on electric circuits to investigate any learning difficulties students have with modeling curriculum and further enhance modeling teaching. This study was conducted with 44 10th-grade students in Central Taiwan. Data collection included a students’ understanding of models in science (SUMS) survey that explored the students' epistemology of scientific models and modeling and a complex circuit problem to investigate the students’ modeling abilities. Data analysis included the following: (1) Paired sample t-tests were used to examine the improvement of students’ modeling abilities and conceptual understanding before and after the curriculum was taught. (2) Paired sample t-tests were also utilized to determine the students’ modeling abilities before and after the modeling activities, and a Pearson correlation was used to understand the relationship between students’ modeling abilities during the activities and on the posttest. (3) ANOVA analysis was used during different stages of the modeling curriculum to investigate the differences between the students’ who developed microscopic models and macroscopic models after the modeling curriculum was taught. (4) Independent sample t-tests were employed to determine whether the students who changed their models had significantly different understandings of scientific models than the students who did not change their models. The results revealed the following: (1) After the modeling curriculum was taught, the students had made significant progress in both their understanding of the science concept and their modeling abilities. In terms of science concepts, this modeling curriculum helped the students overcome the misconception that electric currents reduce after flowing through light bulbs. In terms of modeling abilities, this modeling curriculum helped students employ macroscopic or microscopic models to explain their observed phenomena. (2) Encouraging the students to explain scientific phenomena in different context prompts during the modeling process allowed them to convert their models to microscopic models, but it did not help them continuously employ microscopic models throughout the whole curriculum. The students finally consistently employed microscopic models when they had help visualizing the microscopic models. (3) During the modeling process, the students who revised their own models better understood that models can be changed than the students who did not revise their own models. Also, the students who revised their models to explain different scientific phenomena tended to regard models as explanatory tools. In short, this study explored different strategies to facilitate students’ modeling processes as well as their difficulties with the modeling process. The findings can be used to design and teach modeling curricula and help students enhance their modeling abilities.

Keywords: electric circuits, modeling curriculum, science learning, scientific model

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Authors: R. Hellmuth

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The method of factory planning has changed a lot, especially when it is about planning the factory building itself. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring is becoming more important in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Restrictions in new areas, shorter life cycles of product and production technology as well as a VUCA world (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) lead to more frequent restructuring measures within a factory. A digital factory model is the planning basis for rebuilding measures and becomes an indispensable tool. Furthermore, digital building models are increasingly being used in factories to support facility management and manufacturing processes. The main research question of this paper is, therefore: What kind of digital factory model is suitable for the different areas of application during the operation of a factory? First, different types of digital factory models are investigated, and their properties and usabilities for use cases are analysed. Within the scope of investigation are point cloud models, building information models, photogrammetry models, and these enriched with sensor data are examined. It is investigated which digital models allow a simple integration of sensor data and where the differences are. Subsequently, possible application areas of digital factory models are determined by means of a survey and the respective digital factory models are assigned to the application areas. Finally, an application case from maintenance is selected and implemented with the help of the appropriate digital factory model. It is shown how a completely digitalized maintenance process can be supported by a digital factory model by providing information. Among other purposes, the digital factory model is used for indoor navigation, information provision, and display of sensor data. In summary, the paper shows a structuring of digital factory models that concentrates on the geometric representation of a factory building and its technical facilities. A practical application case is shown and implemented. Thus, the systematic selection of digital factory models with the corresponding application cases is evaluated.

Keywords: building information modeling, digital factory model, factory planning, maintenance

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Authors: Yoko Yamada, Chizumi Yamada

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Narrative psychology is based on the dialogical relationship between self and other. The dialogue can consist of divided, competitive, or opposite communication between self and other. We constructed models of coexistent dialogue in which self and other were positioned side by side and communicated sympathetically. We propose new mediation models for narrative relationships. The mediation models are based on triadic relationships that incorporate a medium or a mediator along with self and other. We constructed three types of mediation model. In the first type, called the “Joint Attention Model”, self and other are positioned side by side and share attention with the medium. In the second type, the “Triangle Model”, an agent mediates between self and other. In the third type, the “Caring Model”, a caregiver stands beside the communication between self and other. We apply the three models to the illness narratives of medical professionals and patients. As these groups have different views and experiences of disease or illness, triadic mediation facilitates the ability to see things from the other person’s perspective and to bridge differences in people’s experiences and feelings. These models would be useful for medical education in various situations, such as in considering the relationships between senior and junior doctors and between old and young patients.

Keywords: illness narrative, mediation, psychology, model, medical education

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Jorge A. Ruiz-Vanoye, Ocotlán Díaz-Parra, Alejandro Fuentes-Penna, José J. Hernández-Flores, Edith Olaco Garcia

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The Project Scheduling Problem (PSP) is a generic name given to a whole class of problems in which the best form, time, resources and costs for project scheduling are necessary. The PSP is an application area related to the project management. This paper aims at being a guide to understand PSP by presenting a survey of the general parameters of PSP: the Resources (those elements that realize the activities of a project), and the Activities (set of operations or own tasks of a person or organization); the mathematical models of the main variants of PSP and the algorithms used to solve the variants of the PSP. The project scheduling is an important task in project management. This paper contains mathematical models, resources, activities, and algorithms of project scheduling problems. The project scheduling problem has attracted researchers of the automotive industry, steel manufacturer, medical research, pharmaceutical research, telecommunication, industry, aviation industry, development of the software, manufacturing management, innovation and technology management, construction industry, government project management, financial services, machine scheduling, transportation management, and others. The project managers need to finish a project with the minimum cost and the maximum quality.

Keywords: PSP, Combinatorial Optimization Problems, Project Management; Manufacturing Management, Technology Management.

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Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

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The main component of a machine learning system is the classifier. Classifiers are mathematical models that can perform classification tasks for a specific application area. Additionally, many classifiers are combined using any of the available methods to reduce the classifier error rate. The benefits gained from the combination of multiple classifier designs has motivated the development of diverse approaches to multiple classifiers. We aim to investigate using fractal geometry to develop an improved classifier combiner. Initially we experiment with measuring the fractal dimension of data and use the results in the development of a combiner strategy.

Keywords: fractal geometry, machine learning, classifier, fractal dimension

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: A. A. A. Aboalnour, Ahmed M. Amasaib, Mohammed-Almujtaba A. Mohammed-Farah, Abdelhakam, A. Noreldien

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This paper presents a design and study of Parabolic Trough Solar Collector (PTC). Mathematical models were used in this work to find the direct and reflected solar radiation from the air layer on the surface of the earth per hour based on the total daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface. Also mathematical models had been used to calculate the radiation of the tilted surfaces. Most of the ingredients used in this project as previews data required on several solar energy applications, thermal simulation, and solar power systems. In addition, mathematical models had been used to study the flow of the fluid inside the tube (receiver), and study the effect of direct and reflected solar radiation on the pressure, temperature, speed, kinetic energy and forces of fluid inside the tube. Finally, the mathematical models had been used to study the (PTC) performances and estimate its thermal efficiency.

Keywords: CFD, experimental, mathematical models, parabolic trough, radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 411