Search results for: safety risk assessment model

Authors: Charita Jashi

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The aim of the paper is to explore the role of social marketing in changing the behavior of consumers on road safety, identify critical aspects and priority needs which impede the implementation of road safety program in Georgia. Given the goals of the study, a quantitative method was used to carry out interviews for primary data collection. This research identified the awareness level of road safety, legislation base, and marketing interventions to change behavior of drivers and pedestrians. During several years the non-governmental sector together with the local authorities and media have been very intensively working on the road safety issue in Georgia, but only seat-belts campaign should be considered rather successful. Despite achievements in this field, efficiency of road safety programs far from fulfillment and needs strong empowering.

Keywords: road safety, social marketing interventions, behavior change, well-being

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Authors: Tas Yong Koh, Steve Rowlinson, Yuzhong Shen

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In construction safety management, safety climate has long been linked to workers' safety behaviors and performance. For this reason, safety climate concept and tools have been used as heuristics to diagnose a range of safety-related issues by some progressive contractors in Hong Kong and elsewhere. However, as a diagnostic tool, safety climate tends to treat the different components of the climate construct in a linear fashion. Safety management in construction projects, in reality, is a multi-faceted and multilevel phenomenon that resembles a complex system. Hence, understanding safety management in construction projects requires not only the understanding of safety climate but also the organizational-systemic nature of the phenomenon. Our involvement, diagnoses, and interpretations of a range of safety climate-related issues which culminated in the project’s sub-optimum safety performance in an infrastructure construction project have brought about such revelation. In this study, a range of data types had been collected from various hierarchies of the project site organization. These include the frontline workers and supervisors from the main and sub-contractors, and the client supervisory personnel. Data collection was performed through the administration of safety climate questionnaire, interviews, observation, and document study. The findings collectively indicate that what had emerged in parallel of the seemingly linear climate-based exploration is the exposition of the organization-systemic nature of the phenomenon. The results indicate the negative impacts of climate perceptions mismatch, insufficient work planning, and risk management, mixed safety leadership, workforce negative attributes, lapsed safety enforcement and resources shortages collectively give rise to the project sub-optimum safety performance. From the dynamic causation and multilevel perspective, the analyses show that the individual, group, and organizational levels issues are interrelated and these interrelationships are linked to negative safety climate. Hence the adoption of both perspectives has enabled a fuller understanding of the phenomenon of safety management that point to the need for an organizational-systemic intervention strategy. The core message points to the fact that intervention at an individual level will only meet with limited success if the risks embedded in the higher levels in group and project organization are not addressed. The findings can be used to guide the effective development of safety infrastructure by linking different levels of systems in a construction project organization.

Keywords: construction safety management, dynamic causation, multilevel analysis, safety climate

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Authors: Ali Reza Ghanbarnezhad Ghazvini, Seyyed Hamid Reza Mosayyebi

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In recent years, an earthquake has occurred approximately every five years in certain regions of Iran. To mitigate the impact of these seismic events, it is crucial to identify and thoroughly assess the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, ensuring their safety through principled reinforcement. By adopting new methods of risk assessment, we can effectively reduce the potential risks associated with future earthquakes. In our research, we have observed that the coefficient of behavior in the fourth chapter is 1.65 for the initial structure and 1.72 for the Superframe structure. This indicates that the Superframe structure can enhance the strength of the main structural members by approximately 10% through the utilization of super beams. Furthermore, based on the comparative analysis between the two structures conducted in this study, we have successfully designed a stronger structure with minimal changes in the coefficient of behavior. Additionally, this design has allowed for greater energy dissipation during seismic events, further enhancing the structure's resilience to earthquakes. By comprehensively examining and reinforcing the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure, along with implementing advanced risk assessment techniques, we can significantly reduce casualties and damages caused by earthquakes in Iran. The findings of this study offer valuable insights for civil engineering professionals in the field of structural engineering, aiding them in designing safer and more resilient structures.

Keywords: modal pushover analysis, response modification factor, high-strength concrete, concrete shear walls, high-rise building

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Authors: S. Hasan, I. Beshara

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Infrastructure maintenance is a great challenge facing sustainable development of infrastructure assets due to the high cost of passive implementation of a sustainable maintenance plan. An assessment model of sustainable maintenance for highway infrastructure projects in Egypt is developed in this paper. It helps in improving the implementation of sustainable maintenance criteria. Thus, this paper has applied the analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) to rank and explore the weight of 26 assessment indicators using three hierarchy levels containing the main sustainable categories and subcategories with related indicators. Overall combined weight of each indicator for sustainable maintenance evaluation has been calculated to sum up to a sustainable maintenance performance index (SMI). The results show that the factor "Preventive maintenance cost" has the highest relative contribution factor among others (13.5%), while two factors of environmental performance have the least weights (0.7%). The developed model aims to provide decision makers with information about current maintenance performance and support them in the decision-making process regarding future directions of maintenance activities. It can be used as an assessment performance tool during the operation and maintenance stage. The developed indicators can be considered during designing the maintenance plan. Practices for successful implementation of the model are also presented.

Keywords: analytical hierarchy process, assessment performance Model, KPIs for sustainable maintenance, sustainable maintenance index

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Authors: Safia Hocine, Djamil Aïssani

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Risk models, recently studied in the literature, are becoming increasingly complex. It is rare to find explicit analytical relations to calculate the ruin probability. Indeed, the stability issue occurs naturally in ruin theory, when parameters in risk cannot be estimated than with uncertainty. However, in most cases, there are no explicit formulas for the ruin probability. Hence, the interest to obtain explicit stability bounds for these probabilities in different risk models. In this paper, we interest to the stability bounds of the univariate classical risk model established using the regenerative processes approach. By adopting an algorithmic approach, we implement this approximation and determine numerically the bounds of ruin probability in the case of large claims (heavy-tailed distribution).

Keywords: heavy-tailed distribution, large claims, regenerative process, risk model, ruin probability, stability

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Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

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Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

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Authors: Efua Ehiaguina, Haruna Moda

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Interest in the development of appropriate safety culture in the oil and gas industry has taken centre stage among stakeholders in the industry. Human behaviour has been identified as a major contributor to occupational accidents, where abnormal activities associated with safety management are taken as normal behaviour. Poor safety culture is one of the major factors that influence employee’s safety behaviour at work, which may consequently result in injuries and accidents and strengthening such a culture can improve workers safety performance. Nigeria oil and gas industry has contributed to the growth and development of the country in diverse ways. However, in terms of safety and health of workers, this industry is a dangerous place to work as workers are often exposed to occupational safety and health hazard. To ascertain the impact of employees’ safety and how it impacts health and safety compliance within the local industry, online safety culture survey targeting frontline workers within the industry was administered covering major subjects that include; perception of management commitment and style of leadership; safety communication method and its resultant impact on employees’ behaviour; employee safety commitment and training needs. The preliminary result revealed that 54% of the participants feel that there is a lack of motivation from the management to work safely. In addition, 55% of participants revealed that employers place more emphasis on work delivery over employee’s safety on the installation. It is expected that the study outcome will provide measures aimed at strengthening and sustaining safety culture in the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

Keywords: oil and gas safety, safety behaviour, safety culture, safety compliance

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Authors: Yassir AbdelRazig, Amine Ghanem

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Construction projects are information intensive in nature and involve many activities that are related to each other. Wireless technologies can be used to improve the accuracy and timeliness of data collected from construction sites and shares it with appropriate parties. Nonetheless, the construction industry tends to be conservative and shows hesitation to adopt new technologies. A main concern for owners, contractors or any person in charge on a job site is the cost of the technology in question. Wireless technologies are not cheap. There are a lot of expenses to be taken into consideration, and a study should be completed to make sure that the importance and savings resulting from the usage of this technology is worth the expenses. This research attempts to assess the effectiveness of using the appropriate wireless technologies based on criteria such as performance, reliability, and risk. The assessment is based on a utility function model that breaks down the selection issue into alternatives attribute. Then the attributes are assigned weights and single attributes are measured. Finally, single attribute are combined to develop one single aggregate utility index for each alternative.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision theory, utility function, wireless technologies

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Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

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One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

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Authors: Sung-Jun Yoo, Kazuhide Ito

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In this study, a comprehensive computer simulated person (CSP) that integrates computational human model (virtual manikin) and respiratory tract model (virtual airway), was applied for estimation of indoor environmental quality. Moreover, an inclusive prediction method was established by integrating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis with advanced CSP which is combined with physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model, unsteady thermoregulation model for analysis targeting micro-climate around human body and respiratory area with high accuracy. This comprehensive method can estimate not only the contaminant inhalation but also constant interaction in the contaminant transfer between indoor spaces, i.e., a target area for indoor air quality (IAQ) assessment, and respiratory zone for health risk assessment. This study focused on the usage of the CSP as an air/thermal quality sensor in indoors, which means the application of comprehensive model for assessment of IAQ and thermal environmental quality. Demonstrative analysis was performed in order to examine the applicability of the comprehensive model to the heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) control scheme. CSP was located at the center of the simple model room which has dimension of 3m×3m×3m. Formaldehyde which is generated from floor material was assumed as a target contaminant, and flow field, sensible/latent heat and contaminant transfer analysis in indoor space were conducted by using CFD simulation coupled with CSP. In this analysis, thermal comfort was evaluated by thermoregulatory analysis, and respiratory exposure risks represented by adsorption flux/concentration at airway wall surface were estimated by PBPK-CFD hybrid analysis. These Analysis results concerning IAQ and thermal comfort will be fed back to the HVAC control and could be used to find a suitable ventilation rate and energy requirement for air conditioning system.

Keywords: CFD simulation, computer simulated person, HVAC control, indoor environmental quality

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Authors: Alfred Hasanaj , Ardit Gjeta, Miranda Kullolli

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The approach in analyzing defects on different pipe lines is conducted through Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD). These methods of analyses have further extended in recent years. This approach is used to identify and stress out a solution for the defects which randomly occur with gas pipes such are corrosion defects, gauge defects, and combination of defects where gauge and dents are included. Few of the defects are to be analyzed in this paper where our main focus will be the fracture of cast Iron pipes, elastic-plastic failure and plastic collapse of X52 steel pipes for gas transport. We need to conduct a calculation of probability of the defects in order to predict and avoid such costly defects.

Keywords: defects, failure assessment diagrams, steel pipes, safety factor

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Authors: Carmen Silvia Gabriel, Dsniele Bernardi da Costa, Andrea Bernardes, Sabrina Elias Mikael, Daniele da Silva Ramos

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The goal of this quantitative study is to investigate patient safety culture from the perspective of professional from the hospital nursing team.It was conducted in two Brazilian hospitals,.The sample included 282 nurses Data collection occurred in 2013, through the questionnaire Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture.Based on the assessment of the dimensions is stressed that, in the dimension teamwork across hospital units, 69.4% of professionals agree that when a lot of work needs to be done quickly, they work together as a team; about the dimension supervisor/ manager expectations and actions promoting safety, 70.2% agree that their supervisor overlooks patient safety problems.Related to organizational learning and continuous improvement, 56.5% agree that there is evaluation of the effectiveness of the changes after its implementation.On hospital management support for patient safety, 52.8% refer that the actions of hospital management show that patient safety is a top priority.On the overall perception of patient safety, 57.2% disagree that patient safety is never compromised due to higher amount of work to be completed.In what refers to feedback and communication about error, 57.7% refer that always and usually receive such information. Relative to communication openness, 42.9% said they never or rarely feel free to question the decisions / actions of their superiors.On frequency of event reporting, 64.7% said often and always notify events with no damages to patients..About teamwork across hospital units is noted similarity between the percentages of agreement and disagreement, as on the item there is a good cooperation among hospital units that need to work together, that indicates 41.4% and 40.5% respectively.Related to adequacy of professionals, 77.8 % disagree on the existence of sufficient amount of employees to do the job, 52.4% agree that shift changes are problematic for patients. On nonpunitive response to errors, 71.7% indicate that when an event is reported it seems that the focus is on the person.On the patient safety grade of the institution, 41.6 % classified it as very good. it is concluded that there are positive points in the safety culture, and some weaknesses as a punitive culture and impaired patient safety due to work overload .

Keywords: quality of health care, health services evaluation, safety culture, patient safety, nursing team

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Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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Authors: Harvard Najoan, Sarwono Sutikno, Yusep Rosmansyah

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Most enterprises are now using information technology services as their assets to support business objectives. These kinds of services are provided by the internal service provider (inside the enterprise) or external service provider (outside enterprise). To deliver quality information technology services, the service provider (which from now on will be called ‘organization’) either internal or external, must have a standard for service management system. At present, the standard that is recognized as best practice for service management system for the organization is international standard ISO/IEC 20000:2011. The most important part of this international standard is the first part or ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011-Service Management System Requirement, because it contains 22 for organization processes as a requirement to be implemented in an organizational environment in order to build, manage and deliver quality service to the customer. Assessing organization management processes is the first step to implementing ISO/IEC 20000:2011 into the organization management processes. This assessment needs Process Assessment Model (PAM) as an assessment instrument. PAM comprises two parts: Process Reference Model (PRM) and Measurement Framework (MF). PRM is built by transforming the 22 process of ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 and MF is based on ISO/IEC 33020. This assessment instrument was designed to assess the capability of service management process in Divisi Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi (Information Systems and Technology Division) as an internal organization of PT Pos Indonesia. The result of this assessment model can be proposed to improve the capability of service management system.

Keywords: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011, ISO/IEC 33020:2015, process assessment, process capability, service management system

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Hyeondal Jeong, Yoonjung Baek

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This study examines the relationship between ethical leadership and individual creativity and focused on mediating effects of psychological safety. In order to clarify the mechanism of ethical leadership, psychological safety of the members was set as a mediator. Using data gathered from a sample of 150 employees. For data analysis, exploratory factor analysis, correlation analysis, hierarchical regression analysis and Sobel-Test were performed. The results showed that ethical leadership had a positive effect on psychological safety and individual creativity, and psychological safety had a positive mediating effect. Since the mediating effect of psychological safety has been confirmed, we need to find ways to improve the psychological safety of the members in terms of organizational management. Psychological safety has a positive effect on individual creativity, which can have a positive impact on innovation throughout the organization.

Keywords: ethical leadership, creativity, psychological safety, ethics management, innovative behaviors

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Authors: Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Pei-Chih Wu, Hsien-Chang Wang

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Taiwan, a climatically challenged island, has always been keen on the issue of water resource management due to its limitations in water storage. Since water resource management has been the focal point of many adaptations to climate change, there has been a lack of attention on another issue, water quality. This study chooses the Errer River Basin as the experimental focus for water quality in Taiwan. With the Errer River Basin being one of the most polluted rivers in Taiwan, this study observes the effects of climate change on this river over a period of time. Taiwan is also targeted by multiple typhoons every year, the heavy rainfall and strong winds create problems of pollution being carried to different river segments, including into the ocean. This study aims to create an impact and risk assessment on Errer River Basin, to show the connection from climate change to potential extreme events, which in turn could influence water quality and ultimately human health. Using dynamic downscaling, this study narrows the information from a global scale to a resolution of 1 km x 1 km. Then, through interpolation, the resolution is further narrowed into a resolution of 200m x 200m, to analyze the past, present, and future of extreme events. According to different climate change scenarios, this study designs an assessment index on the vulnerability of the Errer River Basin. Through this index, Errer River inhabitants can access advice on adaptations to climate change and act accordingly.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, water quality, risk assessment

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Authors: Kwanele Qonono

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Despite the significance and economic benefits of petrol stations in South Africa, these still pose a huge risk of fire and explosion threatening public safety. This research paper examines the extent to which land-use planning in Stellenbosch, South Africa, considers the fire risk posed by petrol stations and the implications for public safety as well as preparedness for large fires or explosions. To achieve this, the research identified the land-use types around petrol stations in Stellenbosch and determined the extent to which their locations comply with the local, national, and international land-use planning regulations. A mixed research method consisting of the collection and analysis of geospatial data and qualitative data was an applied method, where petrol stations within a six-kilometre radius of Stellenbosch’s town centre were utilised as study sites. The research examined the risk of fires/explosions at these petrol stations. The research investigated Stellenbosch Municipality’s institutional preparedness to respond in the event of a fire/explosion at these petrol stations. The research observed that siting of petrol stations does not comply with local, national, and international good practices, thus exposing the surrounding developments to fires and explosions. Land-use planning practice does not consider hazards created by petrol stations. Despite the potential for major fires at petrol stations, Stellenbosch Municipality’s level of preparedness to respond to petrol station fires appears low due to the prioritisation of more frequent events.

Keywords: petrol stations, technological hazard, drr, land-use planning, risk analysis

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Authors: Katalin Bodor, Zsolt Bodor, Robert Szep

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The particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 μm are less studied due to the limited availability of PM₂.₅, and less information is available on the health effects attributable to PM₁₀ in Central-Eastern Europe. The objective of the current study was to assess the human health risk and characterize the spatial and temporal variation of PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ in eight Romanian regions between the 2009-2018 and. The PM concentrations showed high variability over time and spatial distribution. The highest concentration was detected in the Bucharest region in the winter period, and the lowest was detected in West. The relative risk caused by the PM₁₀ for all-cause mortality varied between 1.017 (B) and 1.025 (W), with an average 1.020. The results demonstrate a positive relative risk of cardiopulmonary and lung cancer disease due to exposure to PM₂.₅ on the national average 1.26 ( ± 0.023) and 1.42 ( ± 0.037), respectively.

Keywords: PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, relative risk, health effect

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Authors: Masahiro Miyaji

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When a driver happens to be involved in some traffic congestion or after traffic incidents, the driver may fall in a state of anger. State of anger may encounter decisive risk resulting in severer traffic accidents. Preventive safety function using driver’s psychosomatic state with regard to anger may be one of solutions which would avoid that kind of risks. Identifying driver’s anger state is important to create countermeasures to prevent the risk of traffic accidents. As a first step, this research figured out root cause of traffic incidents by means of using Internet survey. From statistical analysis of the survey, dominant psychosomatic states immediately before traffic incidents were haste, distraction, drowsiness and anger. Then, we replicated anger state of a driver while driving, and then, replicated it by means of using driving simulator on bench test basis. Six types of facial expressions including anger were introduced as alternative characteristics. Kohonen neural network was adopted to classify anger state. Then, we created a methodology to detect anger state of a driver in high accuracy. We presented a driving support safety function. The function adapts driver’s anger state in cooperation with an autonomous driving unit to reduce the number of traffic accidents. Consequently, e evaluated reduction rate of driver’s anger in the traffic accident. To validate the estimation results, we referred the reduction rate of Advanced Safety Vehicle (ASV) as well as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

Keywords: Kohonen neural network, driver’s anger state, reduction of traffic accidents, driver’s state adaptive driving support safety

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

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In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo simulation, permeability coefficient

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Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer networks are constructed to protect the communities and the environment from any contact with the sewer mediums. Pipelines, being laterals or sewer mains, and manholes form the huge underground infrastructure in every urban city. Due to the sewer networks importance, the infrastructure asset management field has extensive advancement in condition assessment and rehabilitation decision models. However, most of the focus was devoted to pipelines giving little attention toward manholes condition assessment. In fact, recent studies started to emerge in this area to preserve manholes from any malfunction. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose a condition assessment model for sewer manholes. The model divides the manhole into several components and determines the relative importance weight of each component using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision-making method. Later, the condition of the manhole is computed by aggregating the condition of each component with its corresponding weight. Accordingly, the proposed assessment model will enable decision-makers to have a final index suggesting the overall condition of the manhole and a backward analysis to check the condition of each component. Consequently, better decisions are made pertinent to maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement actions.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), condition assessment, decision-making, manholes

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Authors: Alma Shehu, Majlinda Vasjari, Sonila Duka, Loreta Vallja, Nevila Broli

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Humans consume drinking water from several sources, including tap water, bottled water, natural springs, filtered tap water, etc. The quality of drinking water is crucial for human survival given the fact that the consumption of contaminated drinking water is related to many diseases and deaths all over the world. This study represents the investigation of the quality and health risks of different types of drinking waters being consumed by the population in Albania, arising from heavy metals content. Investigated water included industrialized water, tap water, and spring water. In total, 20 samples were analyzed for the content of Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni, Cu, Fe, Zn, Al, and Mn. Determination of each metal concentration in selected samples was conducted by atomic absorption spectroscopy method with electrothermal atomization, GFAAS. Water quality was evaluated by comparing the obtained metals concentrations with the recommended maximum limits, according to the European Directive (98/83/EC) and Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality (WHO, 2017). Metal Index (MI) was used to assess the overall water quality due to heavy metals content. Health risk assessment was conducted based on the recommendations of the USEPA (1996), human health risk assessment, via ingestion. Results of this investigation showed that Al, Ni, Fe, and Cu were the metals found in higher concentrations while Cd exhibited the lowest concentration. Among the analyzed metals, Al (one sample) and Ni (in five samples) exceeded the maximum allowed limit. Based on the pollution metal index, it was concluded that the overall quality of Glina bottled water can be considered as toxic to humans, while the quality of bottled water (Trebeshina) was classified as moderately toxic. Values of health risk quotient (HQ) varied between 1x10⁻⁶-1.3x10⁻¹, following the order Ni > Cd > Pb > Cu > Al > Fe > Zn > Mn. All the values were lower than 1, which suggests that the analyzed samples exhibit no health risk for humans.

Keywords: drinking water, health risk assessment, heavy metals, pollution index

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Authors: Duygu Çelgin

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Until the new Occupational Health and Safety Law of Turkey, most of the workers were excluded from the mandatory occupational health and safety services. This new law, made the OHS services mandatory for all workers from all sectors including both public and private. However, in the application some problems and disadvantageous cases are occurred and the government also considered these cases. In this study, the new OHS law of Turkey and the regulations prepared according to the law are studied with the literature search.

Keywords: occupational health and safety in Turkey, OHS servicing in Turkey, safety experts, OHS support

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Authors: Krzysztof Plesiewicz, Izabela Plesiewicz, Krzysztof Chiżyński, Marzenna Zielińska

Abstract:

Background: Obesity is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. There are several anthropometric parameters proposed to estimate the level of obesity, but until now there is no agreement which one is the best predictor of cardiometabolic risk. Scientists defined metabolically obese normal weight, who suffer from metabolic abnormalities, the same as obese individuals, and defined this syndrome as normal weight obesity (NWO). Aim of the study: The aim of our study was to determine the occurrence of overweight and obesity in a cohort of young, adult women, using standard and complementary methods of obesity assessment and to indicate those, who are at risk of obesity. The second aim of our study was to test additional methods of obesity assessment and proof that body mass index using alone is not sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. Materials and methods: 384 young women, aged 18-32, were enrolled into the study. Standard anthropometric parameters (waist to hips ratio (WTH), waist to height ratio (WTHR)) and two other methods of body fat percentage measurement (BFPM) were used in the study: electrical bioimpendance analysis (BIA) and skinfold measurement test by digital fat body mass clipper (SFM). Results: In the study group 5% and 7% of participants had waist to hips ratio and accordingly waist to height ratio values connected with visceral obesity. According to BMI 14% participants were overweight and obese. Using additional methods of body fat assessment, there were 54% and 43% of obese for BIA and SMF method. In the group of participants with normal BMI and underweight (not overweight, n =340) there were individuals with the level of BFPM above the upper limit, for the BIA 49% (n =164) and for the SFM 36 % (n=125). Statistical analysis revealed strong correlation between BIA and SFM methods. Conclusion: BMI using alone is not a sufficient parameter of obesity assessment. High percentage of young women with normal BMI values seem to be normal weight obese.

Keywords: electrical bioimpedance, normal weight obesity, skin-fold measurement test, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Olukayode Bamgbose, Feyisola Agboola, Adewale M. Taiwo, Olanrewaju Olujimi Oluwole Terebo, Azeez Soyingbe, Akeem Bamgbade

Abstract:

The present study evaluated the contents and health risk assessment of metals determined in milk and milk product samples collected from the Abeokuta market. Forty-five milk and milk product (yoghurt) samples were digested and analysed for selected metals using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometric method. Health risk assessment was evaluated for hazard quotient (HQ), hazard index (HI), and cancer risk (CR). Data were subjected to descriptive and inferential statistics. The concentrations of Zn, which ranged from 3.24±0.59 to 4.35±0.59 mg/kg, were the highest in the samples. Cr and Cd were measured below the detection limit of the analytical instrument, while the Pb level was higher than the Codex Alimentarius Commission value of 0.02 mg/kg, indicating unsafe for consumption. However, the HQ of Pb and other metals in milk and milk product samples was less than 1.0, thereby establishing no adverse health effects for Pb and other metals. The distribution pattern of metals in milk and milk product samples followed the decreasing order of Zn > Fe > Ni > Co > Cu > Mn > Pb > Cd/Cr. The CR levels of meals were also less than the permissible limit of 1.0 x 10-4, establishing no possible development of cancer. Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, the permissible limit.

Keywords: adverse effects, cancer, metals, milk, milk product, permissible limit

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Nuray Gökçek Karaca

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the application of occupational health and safety supervision in Turkey and EU countries in terms of legal regulations. The results of research reveal that occupational health and safety supervision in EU countries, whatever the understanding of welfare state, is effectively carried out and almost all legal regulations on this subject are consistent with the EU directives. On the other hand, there are serious problems in applications, not legal regulations, of occupational health and safety supervision in Turkey by the side of EU countries. Indeed, Turkey has modern regulations on occupational health and safety supervision whereas there are several problems such as ignoring prevention policy on occupational health and safety supervision, understanding of monotype inspector, problems resulting from this understanding and dispersed structure of occupational health and safety organizations in workplaces. As a result, Turkey needs to carry out effective supervision mechanisms.

Keywords: legal rules, occupational health and safety, inspection, supervision, legislation

Procedia PDF Downloads 765

Authors: Nevila Bardhi, Joanna Magda, Kolapo Alex-Oni, Slavenka Sedlar, Paromita Hore

Abstract:

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) receives blood lead test results for NYC residents and conducts lead poisoning case investigations for individuals with elevated blood lead levels exposed to lead occupationally and non-occupationally. To (1) improve participant engagement, (2) aid the identification of potential lead sources, and (3) better tailor recommendations to reduce lead exposure, Motivational Interviewing (MI) techniques were incorporated during risk assessment interviews of non-pregnant adults by DOHMH’s Adult Lead Poisoning Prevention (ALP) Program. MI is an evidence-based counselling method used in clinical settings that have been effective in promoting behavior change by resolving ambivalence and enhancing motivation in treating both physiological and psychological health conditions. The incorporation of MI techniques in the ALP risk assessment interview was effective in improving the identification of lead sources for non-pregnant adult cases, thus, allowing for the opportunity to better tailor lead poisoning prevention recommendations. The embedding of MI cues in the ALP risk assessment interview also significantly increased engagement in the interview process, resulting in approximately 50 more interviews conducted per year and a decrease in interview refusals during case investigations. Additionally, the pre-MI interview completion rate was 57%, while the post-MI Interview completion rate was 68%. We recommend MI techniques to be used by other lead poisoning prevention programs during lead poisoning investigations in similar diverse populations.

Keywords: lead poisoning prevention, motivational interviewing, behavior change, lead poisoning risk factors, self-efficacy

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: H. Ben Salah, A. Gannoun, C. de Peretti, A. Trabelsi

Abstract:

The Downside Risk (DSR) model for portfolio optimisation allows to overcome the drawbacks of the classical mean-variance model concerning the asymetry of returns and the risk perception of investors. This model optimization deals with a positive definite matrix that is endogenous with respect to portfolio weights. This aspect makes the problem far more difficult to handle. For this purpose, Athayde (2001) developped a new recurcive minimization procedure that ensures the convergence to the solution. However, when a finite number of observations is available, the portfolio frontier presents an appearance which is not very smooth. In order to overcome that, Athayde (2003) proposed a mean kernel estimation of the returns, so as to create a smoother portfolio frontier. This technique provides an effect similar to the case in which we had continuous observations. In this paper, taking advantage on the the robustness of the median, we replace the mean estimator in Athayde's model by a nonparametric median estimator of the returns. Then, we give a new version of the former algorithm (of Athayde (2001, 2003)). We eventually analyse the properties of this improved portfolio frontier and apply this new method on real examples.

Keywords: Downside Risk, Kernel Method, Median, Nonparametric Estimation, Semivariance

Procedia PDF Downloads 469