Search results for: equivalent model

Authors: M. Manohari, S. Priyadharshini, K. Bajeer Sulthan, R. Santhanam, S. Chandrasekaran, B. Venkatraman

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In-vivo monitoring facility at Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam, caters to the monitoring of internal exposure of occupational radiation workers from various radioactive facilities of IGCAR. Internal exposure measurement is done using Na(Tl) based Scintillation detectors. Two types of whole-body counters, namely Shielded Chair Counter (SC) and Standing Whole-Body Monitor (SWBM), are being used. The shielded Chair is based on a NaI detector of 20.3 cm diameter and 10.15 cm thick. The chair of the system is shielded using lead shots of 10 cm lead equivalent and the detector with 8 cm lead bricks. Counting geometry is sitting geometry. Calibration is done using 95 percentile BOMAB phantom. The minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) for 137Cs for the 60s is 1150 Bq. Standing Wholebody monitor (SWBM) has two NaI(Tl) detectors of size 10.16 x 10.16 x 40.64 cm3 positioned serially, one over the other. It has a shielding thickness of 5cm lead equivalent. Counting is done in standup geometry. Calibration is done with the help of Ortec Phantom, having a uniform distribution of mixed radionuclides for the thyroid, thorax and pelvis. The efficiency of SWBM is 2.4 to 3.5 times higher than that of the shielded chair in the energy range of 279 to 1332 keV. MDA of 250 Bq for 137Cs can be achieved with a counting time of 60s. MDA for 131I in the thyroid was estimated as 100 Bq from the MDA of whole-body for one-day post intake. Standing whole body monitor is better in terms of efficiency, MDA and ease of positioning. In case of emergency situations, the optimal MDAs for in-vivo monitoring service are 1000 Bq for 137Cs and 100 Bq for 131I. Hence, SWBM is more suitable for the rapid screening of workers as well as the public in the case of an emergency. While a person reports for counting, there is a potential for external contamination. In SWBM, there is a feasibility to discriminate them as the subject can be counted in anterior or posterior geometry which is not possible in SC.

Keywords: minimum detectable activity, shielded chair, shielding thickness, standing whole body monitor

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Authors: Thien X. Dinh, Peter Witt

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A one-dimensional model for the simulation of condensation and solidification of a metallurgical vapor in the mixture of gas during supersonic expansion is presented. In the model, condensation is based on critical nucleation and drop-growth theory. When the temperature falls below the supercooling point, all the formed liquid droplets in the condensation phase are assumed to solidify at an infinite rate. The model was verified with a Computational Fluid Dynamics simulation of magnesium vapor condensation and solidification. The obtained results are in reasonable agreement with CFD data. Therefore, the model is a promising, efficient tool for use in the design process for supersonic nozzles applied in mineral processes since it is faster than the CFD counterpart by an order of magnitude.

Keywords: condensation, metallurgical flow, solidification, supersonic expansion

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Authors: Meriem Mossaddek, El Mehdi Laadissi, El Mehdi Loualid, Chouaib Ennawaoui, Sohaib Bouzaid, Abdelowahed Hajjaji

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An electrochemical system is a subset of mechatronic systems that includes a wide variety of batteries and nickel-cadmium, lead-acid batteries, and lithium-ion. Those structures have several non-linear behaviors and uncertainties in their running range. This paper studies an effective technique for modeling Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries using a Nonlinear Auto-Regressive model with exogenous input (NARX). The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained to employ the data collected from the battery testing process. The proposed model is implemented on a Li-Ion battery cell. Simulation of this model in MATLAB shows good accuracy of the proposed model.

Keywords: lithium-ion battery, neural network, energy storage, battery model, nonlinear models

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Authors: Benoît Mary, Thibaut Gras, Gaëtan Fagot, Yvon Goth, Ilyes Mnassri-Cetim

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A Gerotor pump is composed of an external and internal gear with conjugate cycloidal profiles. From suction to delivery ports, the fluid is transported inside cavities formed by teeth and driven by the shaft. From a geometric and conceptional side it is worth to note that the internal gear has one tooth less than the external one. Simcenter Amesim v.16 includes a new submodel for modelling the hydraulic Gerotor pumps behavior (THCDGP0). This submodel considers leakages between teeth tips using Poiseuille and Couette flows contributions. From the 3D CAD model of the studied pump, the “CAD import” tool takes out the main geometrical characteristics and the submodel THCDGP0 computes the evolution of each cavity volume and their relative position according to the suction or delivery areas. This module, based on international publications, presents robust results up to 6 000 rpm for pressure greater than atmospheric level. For higher rotational speeds or lower pressures, oil aeration and cavitation effects are significant and highly drop the pump’s performance. The liquid used in hydraulic systems always contains some gas, which is dissolved in the liquid at high pressure and tends to be released in a free form (i.e. undissolved as bubbles) when pressure drops. In addition to gas release and dissolution, the liquid itself may vaporize due to cavitation. To model the relative density of the equivalent fluid, modified Henry’s law is applied in Simcenter Amesim v.16 to predict the fraction of undissolved gas or vapor. Three parietal pressure sensors have been set up upstream from the pump to estimate the sound speed in the oil. Analytical models have been compared with the experimental sound speed to estimate the occluded gas content. Simcenter Amesim v.16 model was supplied by these previous analyses marks which have successfully improved the simulations results up to 14 000 rpm. This work provides a sound foundation for designing the next Gerotor pump generation reaching high rotation range more than 25 000 rpm. This improved module results will be compared to tests on this new pump demonstrator.

Keywords: gerotor pump, high speed, numerical simulations, aeronautic, aeration, cavitation

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Authors: Asaiel Alohaly

Abstract:

A theoretical framework for corporate governance is needed to bridge the gap between the corporate governance of private companies and State-owned Enterprises (SOEs). The two dominant models, being shareholder and stakeholder, do not always address the specific requirements and challenges posed by ‘hybrid’ companies; namely, previously national bodies that have been privatised bffu t where the government retains significant control or holds a majority of shareholders. Thus, an exploratory theoretical study is needed to identify how ‘hybrid’ companies should be defined and why the state model should be acknowledged since it is the less conspicuous model in comparison with the shareholder and stakeholder models. This research focuses on ‘the state model of corporate governance to understand the complex ownership, control pattern, goals, and corporate governance of these hybrid companies. The significance of this research lies in the fact that there is a limited available publication on the state model. The outcomes of this research are as follows. It became evident that the state model exists in the ecosystem. However, corporate governance theories have not extensively covered this model. Though, there is a lot being said about it by OECD and the World Bank. In response to this gap between theories and industry practice, this research argues for the state model, which proceeds from an understanding of the institutionally embedded character of hybrid companies where the government is either a majority of the total shares or a controlling shareholder.

Keywords: corporate governance, control, shareholders, state model

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Authors: Bin Wang, Hengyu Ji, Zhifeng Ye

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Fuel Metering Unit (FMU) in fuel system of an aeroengine sometimes has direct influence on the engine performance, which is neglected for the sake of easy access to mathematical model of the engine in most cases. In order to verify the influence of FMU on an engine model, this paper presents a co-simulation of a stepping motor driven FMU (digital FMU) in a turboshaft aeroengine, using AMESim and MATLAB to obtain the steady and dynamic characteristics of the FMU. For this method, mechanical and hydraulic section of the unit is modeled through AMESim, while the stepping motor is mathematically modeled through MATLAB/Simulink. Combining these two sub-models yields an AMESim/MATLAB co-model of the FMU. A simplified component level model for the turboshaft engine is established and connected with the FMU model. Simulation results on the full model show that the engine model considering FMU characteristics describes the engine more precisely especially in its transition state. An FMU dynamics will cut down the rotation speed of the high pressure shaft and the inlet pressure of the combustor during the step response. The work in this paper reveals the impact of FMU on engine operation characteristics and provides a reference to an engine model for ground tests.

Keywords: fuel metering unit, stepping motor, AMESim/Matlab, full digital simulation

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: Zongjie Wang, Zhizhong Guo

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While the regular optimal power flow model focuses on a single time scan, the optimization of power systems is typically intended for a time duration with respect to a desired objective function. In this paper, a temporal optimal power flow model for a time period is proposed. To reduce the computation burden needed for calculating temporal optimal power flow, a characteristic optimal power flow model is proposed, which employs different characteristic load patterns to represent the objective function and security constraints. A numerical method based on the interior point method is also proposed for solving the characteristic optimal power flow model. Both the temporal optimal power flow model and characteristic optimal power flow model can improve the systems’ desired objective function for the entire time period. Numerical studies are conducted on the IEEE 14 and 118-bus test systems to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characteristic optimal power flow model.

Keywords: optimal power flow, time period, security, economy

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Authors: Li Donghong, Peng Fuyang, Yang Guanghua, Su Xiaoyan

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Using open source code is a popular method of software development. How to evaluate the quality of software becomes more important. This paper introduces an evaluation model. The model evaluates the quality from four dimensions: technology, production, management, and development. Each dimension includes many indicators. The weight of indicator can be modified according to the purpose of evaluation. The paper also introduces a method of using the model. The evaluating result can provide good advice for evaluating or purchasing the software.

Keywords: evaluation model, software quality, open source code, evaluation indicator

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Authors: A. Amar

Abstract:

The angular distributions of the nuclear systems under consideration have been analyzed in the framework of the optical model (OM), where the real part was taken in the crystal model form. A crystal model (CM) has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and ⁹Be. A crystal model (CM) + distorted-wave Born approximation (DWBA) + dynamic polarization potential (DPP) potential has been applied to deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶,⁷Li and 9Be. Also, a crystal model has been applied to ⁶Li elastically scattered by ¹⁶O and ²⁸Sn in addition to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and the ¹²C(alpha,⁸Be) ⁸Be reaction. The continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been applied to the ⁷Li+⁷Li system and agreement between the crystal model and the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method has been observed. In general, the models succeeded in reproducing the differential cross sections at the full angular range and for all the energies under consideration.

Keywords: optical model (OM), crystal model (CM), distorted-wave born approximation (DWBA), dynamic polarization potential (DPP), the continuum-discretized coupled-channels (CDCC) method, and deuteron elastically scattered by ⁶, ⁷Li and ⁹Be

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Authors: Y. N. Reddy

Abstract:

The class of differential-difference equations which have characteristics of both classes, i.e., delay/advance and singularly perturbed behaviour is known as singularly perturbed differential-difference equations. The expression ‘positive shift’ and ‘negative shift’ are also used for ‘advance’ and ‘delay’ respectively. In general, an ordinary differential equation in which the highest order derivative is multiplied by a small positive parameter and containing at least one delay/advance is known as singularly perturbed differential-difference equation. Singularly perturbed differential-difference equations arise in the modelling of various practical phenomena in bioscience, engineering, control theory, specifically in variational problems, in describing the human pupil-light reflex, in a variety of models for physiological processes or diseases and first exit time problems in the modelling of the determination of expected time for the generation of action potential in nerve cells by random synaptic inputs in dendrites. In this paper, we envisage the use of Liouville Green Transformation to find the solution of singularly perturbed differential difference equations. First, using Taylor series, the given singularly perturbed differential difference equation is approximated by an asymptotically equivalent singularly perturbation problem. Then the Liouville Green Transformation is applied to get the solution. Several model examples are solved, and the results are compared with other methods. It is observed that the present method gives better approximate solutions.

Keywords: difference equations, differential equations, singular perturbations, boundary layer

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Authors: Beata Jackowska-Zduniak

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We formulate and analyze a mathematical model describing dynamics of cancer growth under the influence of radiation therapy. The effect of this type of therapy is considered as an additional equation of discussed model. Numerical simulations show that delay, which is added to ordinary differential equations and represent time needed for transformation from one type of cells to the other one, affects the behavior of the system. The validation and verification of proposed model is based on medical data. Analytical results are illustrated by numerical examples of the model dynamics. The model is able to reconstruct dynamics of treatment of cancer and may be used to determine the most effective treatment regimen based on the study of the behavior of individual treatment protocols.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, numerical simulation, ordinary differential equations, radiation therapy

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Authors: Emmanuel U. Ohaegbulem, Felix N. Nwobi

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Alternative and simple computational arrangements in carrying out multivariate profile analysis when more than two groups (populations) are involved are presented. These arrangements have been demonstrated to not only yield equivalent results for the test statistics (the Wilks lambdas), but they have less computational efforts relative to other arrangements so far presented in the literature; in addition to being quite simple and easy to apply.

Keywords: coincident profiles, g-group profile analysis, level profiles, parallel profiles, repeated measures MANOVA

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Authors: C. E. Madubueze, S. C. Madubueze, S. Ajama

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Cholera is a disease that is predominately common in developing countries due to poor sanitation and overcrowding population. In this paper, a deterministic model for the dynamics of cholera is developed and control measures such as health educational message, therapeutic treatment, and vaccination are incorporated in the model. The effective reproduction number is computed in terms of the model parameters. The existence and stability of the equilibrium states, disease free and endemic equilibrium states are established and showed to be locally and globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and R0 > 1 respectively. The existence of backward bifurcation of the model is investigated. Furthermore, numerical simulation of the model developed is carried out to show the impact of the control measures and the result indicates that combined control measures will help to reduce the spread of cholera in the population

Keywords: backward bifurcation, cholera, equilibrium, dynamics, stability

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: Boguslaw Schreyer

Abstract:

In this paper, a general dynamical model is derived using the Lagrange formalism. The two masses: sprang and unsprang are included in a six-degree of freedom model for a sprung mass. The unsprung mass is included and shown only in a simplified model, although its equations have also been derived by an author. The simplified equations, more suitable for the computer model of robot’s dynamics are also shown.

Keywords: dynamics, mobile, robot, wheeled mobile robots

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Authors: See-Yuan Cheng, Kwang-Yhee Chin, Shuhaimi Mansor

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Rear-roof spoiler is commonly used for improving the aerodynamic performance of road vehicles. This study aims to investigate the effect of yaw angle on the effectiveness of strip-type rear-roof spoiler in providing lower drag and lift coefficients of a hatchback model. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method was used. The numerically obtained results were compared to the experimental data for validation of the CFD method. At increasing yaw angle, both the drag and lift coefficients of the model were to increase. In addition, the effectiveness of spoiler was deteriorated. These unfavorable effects were due to the formation of longitudinal vortices around the side edges of the model that had caused the surface pressure of the model to drop. Furthermore, there were significant crossflow structures developed behind the model at larger yaw angle, which were associated with the drop in the surface pressure of the rear section of the model and cause the drag coefficient to rise.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamics, spoiler, yaw angle

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Authors: Pitak Keawbunsong, Sathaporn Promwong

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This paper presents an investigation on the efficiency of the optimized Davison path loss model in order to look for a suitable path loss model to design and planning DTTV propagation for small and medium urban areas in southern Thailand. Hadyai City in Songkla Province is chosen as the case study to collect the analytical data on the electric field strength. The optimization is conducted through the least square method while the efficiency index is through the statistical value of relative error (RE). The result of the least square method is the offset and slop of the frequency to be used in the optimized process. The statistical result shows that RE of the old Davidson model is at the least when being compared with the optimized Davison and the Hata models. Thus, the old Davison path loss model is the most accurate that further becomes the most optimized for the plan on the propagation network design.

Keywords: DTTV propagation, path loss model, Davidson model, least square method

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Authors: Wei Lu

Abstract:

With the development of information technology in China, network consumption is becoming more and more popular. As a special group, college students have a high degree of education and distinct opinions and personalities. In the future, the key groups of network consumption have gradually become the focus groups of network consumption. Studying college students’ online consumption behavior has important theoretical significance and practical value. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) driving model and the structural equation model, this paper establishes the influencing factors model of College students’ online consumption behavior, evaluates and amends the model by using SPSS and AMOS software, analyses and determines the positive factors of marketing college students’ consumption, and provides an effective basis for guiding and promoting college student consumption.

Keywords: college students, online consumption, stimulate-organism-reaction driving model, structural equation model

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Authors: Masoud Nasiri Sarvi, Yunhua Luo

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Low-trauma hip fracture, usually caused by fall from standing height, has become a main source of morbidity and mortality for the elderly. Factors affecting hip fracture include sex, race, age, body weight, height, body mass distribution, etc., and thus, hip fracture risk in fall differs widely from subject to subject. It is therefore necessary to develop a subject-specific biomechanical model to predict hip fracture risk. The objective of this study is to develop a two-level, image-based, subject-specific biomechanical model consisting of a whole-body dynamics model and a proximal-femur finite element (FE) model for more accurately assessing the risk of hip fracture in lateral falls. Required information for constructing the model is extracted from a whole-body and a hip DXA (Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry) image of the subject. The proposed model considers all parameters subject-specifically, which will provide a fast, accurate, and non-expensive method for predicting hip fracture risk.

Keywords: bone mineral density, hip fracture risk, impact force, sideways falls

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Authors: Soni Nopembri

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to evaluate the implementation of teaching games for Understanding model by conducting action to physical education teacher who have got long teaching experience. The research applied Participatory Action Research. The subjects of this research were 19 physical education teachers who had got training of Teaching Games for Understanding. Data collection was conducted intensively through a questionnaire, in-depth interview, Focus Group Discussion (FGD), observation, and documentation. The collected data was analysis zed qualitatively and quantitatively. The result showed that physical education teachers had got an appropriate interpretation on TGfU model. Some indicators that were the focus of this research indicated this points; they are: (1) physical education teachers had good understanding toward TGfU model, (2) PE teachers’ competence in applying TGfU model on Physical Education at school were adequate, though some improvement were needed, (3) the influence factors in the implementation of TGfU model, in sequence, were teacher, facilities, environment, and students factors, (4) PE teachers’ perspective toward TGfU model were positively good, although some teachers were less optimistic toward the development of TGfU model in the future.

Keywords: TGfU, physical education teacher, teaching games, FGD

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Authors: Marzieh Zarei

Abstract:

Well instability is one of the most fundamental challenges faced by the oil and gas industry. Well wall stability analysis is a gap to be filled in the oil industry. The collection of static data such as well logging leads to the construction of a geomechanical numerical model, which will help in assessing the probable risks in future drilling. In this paper, geomechanical model was designed, and mechanical properties of the rock was determined at all points of the model. It was found the safe mud window was determined and the minimum and maximum mud pressures were determined in the ranges of 70-60 MPa and 110-100 MPa, respectively.

Keywords: geomechanics, numerical model, well stability, in-situ stress, underbalanced drilling

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Authors: M'Hamed Boulakroune, Mouloud Challal, Hassiba Louazene, Saida Fentiz

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This paper presents a new ultra wideband (UWB) microstrip bandpass filter (BPF) at microwave frequencies. The first one is based on multiple-mode resonator (MMR) and rectangular-shaped defected ground structure (DGS). This filter, which is compact size of 25.2 x 3.8 mm2, provides in the pass band an insertion loss of 0.57 dB and a return loss greater than 12 dB. The second structure is a tunable bandpass filters using planar patch resonators based on diode varactor. This filter is formed by a triple mode circular patch resonator with two pairs of slots, in which the varactors are connected. Indeed, this filter is initially centered at 2.4 GHz, the center frequency of the tunable patch filter could be tuned up to 1.8 GHz simultaneously with the bandwidth, reaching high tuning ranges. Lossless simulations were compared to those considering the substrate dielectric, conductor losses, and the equivalent electrical circuit model of the tuning element in order to assess their effects. Within these variations, simulation results showed insertion loss better than 2 dB and return loss better than 10 dB over the passband. The proposed filters presents good performances and the simulation results are in satisfactory agreement with the experimentation ones reported elsewhere.

Keywords: defected ground structure, diode varactor, microstrip bandpass filter, multiple-mode resonator

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Authors: Bencheikh Abdellah

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a mathematical model dedicated to the simulation breaks bars in a three-phase cage induction motor. This model is based on a mesh circuit representing the rotor cage. The tested simulation allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model to describe the behavior of the machine in a healthy state, failure.

Keywords: AC motors, squirrel cage, diagnostics, MATLAB, SIMULINK

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Authors: Oleg Oborin

Abstract:

This paper is dedicated to the development of the model, which can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of long-term corporate strategies and identify the best strategies. The theoretical model of the relatively homogenous product market (such as iron and steel industry, mobile services or road transport) has been developed. In the model, the market consists of a large number of companies with different internal characteristics and objectives. The companies can perform mergers and acquisitions in order to increase their market share. The model allows the simulation of long-time dynamics of the market (for a period longer than 20 years). Therefore, a large number of simulations on random input data was conducted in the framework of the model. After that, the results of the model were compared with the dynamics of real markets, such as the US steel industry from the beginning of the XX century to the present day, and the market of mobile services in Germany for the period between 1990 and 2015.

Keywords: Economic Modelling, Long-Time Strategy, Mergers and Acquisitions, Simulation

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Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

Abstract:

As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

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The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

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Authors: S. M. Mahbobur Rahman

Abstract:

Whole building energy simulation models are widely used for predicting future energy consumption, performance diagnosis and optimum control.  Black box building energy modeling approach has been heavily studied in the past decade. The thermal response of a building can also be modeled using a network of interconnected resistors (R) and capacitors (C) at each node called R-C network. In this study, a model building, Case 600, as described in the “Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Program”, ASHRAE standard 140, is studied along with a 3R2C thermal network model and the ASHRAE clear sky solar radiation model. Although building an energy model involves two important parts of building component i.e., the envelope and internal mass, the effect of building internal mass is not considered in this study. All the characteristic parameters of the building envelope are evaluated as on Case 600. Finally, monthly building energy consumption from the thermal network model is compared with a simple-box energy model within reasonable accuracy. From the results, 0.6-9.4% variation of monthly energy consumption is observed because of the south-facing windows.

Keywords: ASHRAE case study, clear sky solar radiation model, energy modeling, thermal network model

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Authors: Erika Tatiana Ruiz, Wilson Adarme Jaimes

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This abstract presents the methodology for improving the logistics processes of agricultural production units belonging to the coffee, cocoa, and fruit sectors, starting from the fundamental concepts and detailing each of the phases to carry out the diagnosis, which will be the basis for the formulation of its action plan and implementation of the maturity model. As a result of this work, the maturity model is formulated to improve logistics processes. This model seeks to: generate a progressive model that is useful for all productive units belonging to these sectors at the national level, regardless of their initial conditions, focus on the improvement of logistics processes as a strategy that contributes to improving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in Colombia and spread the implementation of good logistics practices in postharvest in all departments of the country through autonomous tools. This model has been built through a series of steps that allow the evaluation and improvement of the logistics dimensions or indicators. The potential improvements for each dimension provide the foundation on which to advance to the next level. Within the maturity model, a methodology is indicated for the design and execution of strategies to improve its logistics processes, taking into account the current state of each production unit.

Keywords: agroindustrial, characterization, logistics, maturity model, processes

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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