Search results for: hospital selection

Authors: Boris G. German, Edward Jiménez, Sebastián Espinoza, Andrés G. Chico, Ricardo A. Narváez

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The unique flora and fauna of The Galapagos Islands has leveraged a tourism-driven growth in the islands. Nonetheless, such development is energy-intensive and requires thousands of gallons of diesel each year for thermoelectric electricity generation. The needed transport of fossil fuels from the continent has generated oil spillages and affectations to the fragile ecosystem of the islands. The Zero Fossil Fuels initiative for The Galapagos proposed by the Ecuadorian government as an alternative to reduce the use of fossil fuels in the islands, considers the replacement of diesel in thermoelectric generators, by Jatropha curcas vegetable oil. However, the Jatropha oil supply cannot entirely cover yet the demand for electricity generation in Galapagos. Within this context, the present work aims to provide an optimization model that can be used as a selection criterion for approving new Jatropha Curcas collection points in rural areas of Manabi-Ecuador. For this purpose, existing Jatropha collection points in Manabi were grouped under three regions: north (7 collection points), center (4 collection points) and south (9 collection points). Field work was carried out in every region in order to characterize the collection points, to establish local Jatropha supply and to determine transportation costs. Data collection was complemented using GIS software and an objective function was defined in order to determine the profit associated to Jatropha oil production. The market price of both Jatropha oil and residual cake, were considered for the total revenue; whereas Jatropha price, transportation and oil extraction costs were considered for the total cost. The tonnes of Jatropha fruit and seed, transported from collection points to the extraction plant, were considered as variables. The maximum and minimum amount of the collected Jatropha from each region constrained the optimization problem. The supply chain was optimized using linear programming in order to maximize the profits. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed in order to find a profit-based criterion for the acceptance of future collection points in Manabi. The maximum profit reached a value of $ 4,616.93 per year, which represented a total Jatropha collection of 62.3 tonnes Jatropha per year. The northern region of Manabi had the biggest collection share (69%), followed by the southern region (17%). The criteria for accepting new Jatropha collection points in the rural areas of Manabi can be defined by the current maximum profit of the zone and by the variation in the profit when collection points are removed one at a time. The definition of new feasible collection points plays a key role in the supply chain associated to Jatropha oil production. Therefore, a mathematical model that assists decision makers in establishing new collection points while assuring profitability, contributes to guarantee a continued Jatropha oil supply for Galapagos and a sustained economic growth in the rural areas of Ecuador.

Keywords: collection points, Jatropha curcas, linear programming, supply chain

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Authors: Rawan Ashraf, Ahmed E. Gomaa, Gehan Safwat, Ayman Diab

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Background: Three-dimensional (3D) bio-printing has become a versatile and powerful method for generating a variety of biological constructs, including bone or extracellular matrix scaffolds endo- or epithelial, muscle tissue, as well as organoids. Aim of the study: Fabricate a low cost DIY 3D bio-printer to produce 3D bio-printed products such as anti-microbial packaging or multi-organs on chips. We demonstrate the alignment between two types of 3D printer technology (3D Bio-printer and DLP) on Multi-organ-on-a-chip (multi-OoC) devices fabrication. Methods: First, Design and Fabrication of the Syringe Unit for Modification of an Off-the-Shelf 3D Printer, then Preparation of Hydrogel based on natural polymers Sodium Alginate and Gelatin, followed by acquisition of the cell suspension, then modeling the desired 3D structure. Preparation for 3D printing, then Cell-free and cell-laden hydrogels went through the printing process at room temperature under sterile conditions and finally post printing curing process and studying the printed structure regards physical and chemical characteristics. The hard scaffold of the Organ on chip devices was designed and fabricated using the DLP-3D printer, following similar approaches as the Microfluidics system fabrication. Results: The fabricated Bio-Ink was based onHydrogel polymer mix of sodium alginate and gelatin 15% to 0.5%, respectively. Later the 3D printing process was conducted using a higher percentage of alginate-based hydrogels because of it viscosity and the controllable crosslinking, unlike the thermal crosslinking of Gelatin. The hydrogels were colored to simulate the representation of two types of cells. The adaption of the hard scaffold, whether for the Microfluidics system or the hard-tissues, has been acquired by the DLP 3D printers with fabricated natural bioactive essential oils that contain antimicrobial activity, followed by printing in Situ three complex layers of soft-hydrogel as a cell-free Bio-Ink to simulate the real-life tissue engineering process. The final product was a proof of concept for a rapid 3D cell culturing approaches that uses an engineered hard scaffold along with soft-tissues, thus, several applications were offered as products of the current prototype, including the Organ-On-Chip as a successful integration between DLP and 3D bioprinter. Conclusion: Multiple designs for the organ-on-a-chip (multi-OoC) devices have been acquired in our study with main focus on the low cost fabrication of such technology and the potential to revolutionize human health research and development. We describe circumstances in which multi-organ models are useful after briefly examining the requirement for full multi-organ models with a systemic component. Following that, we took a look at the current multi-OoC platforms, such as integrated body-on-a-chip devices and modular techniques that use linked organ-specific modules.

Keywords: 3d bio-printer, hydrogel, multi-organ on chip, bio-inks

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Authors: Chia Wei Lim, Ning Yan

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The subject of reactor design, dealing with the transformation of chemical feedstocks into more valuable products, constitutes the central idea of chemical engineering. Despite its importance, the way it is taught to chemical engineering undergraduates has stayed virtually the same over the past several decades, even as the chemical industry increasingly leans towards the use of software for the design and daily monitoring of chemical plants. As such, there has been a widening learning gap as chemical engineering graduates transition from university to the industry since they are not exposed to effective platforms that relate the fundamental concepts taught during lectures to industrial applications. While the success of technology enhanced learning (TEL) has been demonstrated in various chemical engineering subjects, TELs in the teaching of reactor design appears to focus on the simulation of reactor processes, as opposed to arguably more important ideas such as the selection and optimization of reactor configuration for different types of reactions. This presents an opportunity for us to utilize the readily available easy-to-use MATLAB App platform to create an educational tool to aid the learning of fundamental concepts of reactor design and to link these concepts to the industrial context. Here, interactive software for the learning of reactor design has been developed to narrow the learning gap experienced by chemical engineering undergraduates. Dubbed the ReactorDesign App, it enables students to design reactors involving complex design equations for industrial applications without being overly focused on the tedious mathematical steps. With the aid of extensive visualization features, the concepts covered during lectures are explicitly utilized, allowing students to understand how these fundamental concepts are applied in the industrial context and equipping them for their careers. In addition, the software leverages the easily accessible MATLAB App platform to encourage self-directed learning. It is useful for reinforcing concepts taught, complementing homework assignments, and aiding exam revision. Accordingly, students are able to identify any lapses in understanding and clarify them accordingly. In terms of the topics covered, the app incorporates the design of different types of isothermal and non-isothermal reactors, in line with the lecture content and industrial relevance. The main features include the design of single reactors, such as batch reactors (BR), continuously stirred tank reactors (CSTR), plug flow reactors (PFR), and recycle reactors (RR), as well as multiple reactors consisting of any combination of ideal reactors. A version of the app, together with some guiding questions to aid explorative learning, was released to the undergraduates taking the reactor design module. A survey was conducted to assess its effectiveness, and an overwhelmingly positive response was received, with 89% of the respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing that the app has “helped [them] with understanding the unit” and 87% of the respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing that the app “offers learning flexibility”, compared to the conventional lecture-tutorial learning framework. In conclusion, the interactive ReactorDesign App has been developed to encourage self-directed explorative learning of the subject and demonstrate the industrial applications of the taught design concepts.

Keywords: explorative learning, reactor design, self-directed learning, technology enhanced learning

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Authors: Thanduxolo Elford Fana

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Rationale and Purpose: Performance management and development system are central to effective and efficient service delivery, especially in highly labour intensive sectors such as South African public health. Performance management and development systems seek to ensure that good employee performance is rewarded accordingly, while those who underperform are developed so that they can reach their full potential. An effective and efficiently implemented performance management system motivates and improves employee engagement. The purpose of this study is to examine the implementation of the performance management and development system and the challenges that are encountered during its implementation in the Eastern Cape Provincial Department of Health. Methods: A qualitative research approach and a case study design was adopted in this study. The primary data were collected through observations, focus group discussions with employees, a group interview with shop stewards, and in-depth interviews with supervisors and managers, from April 2019 to September 2019. There were 45 study participants. In-depth interviews were held with 10 managers at facility level, which included chief executive officer, chief medical officer, assistant director’s in human resources management, patient admin, operations, finance, and two area manager and two operation managers nursing. A group interview was conducted with five shop stewards and an in-depth interview with one shop steward from the group. Five focus group discussions were conducted with clinical and non-clinical staff. The focus group discussions were supplemented with an in-depth interview with one person from each group in order to counter the group effect. Observations included moderation committee, contracting, and assessment meetings. Findings: The study shows that the performance management and development system was not properly implemented. There was non-compliance to performance management and development system policy guidelines in terms of time lines for contracting, evaluation, payment of incentives to good performers, and management of poor performance. The study revealed that the system is ineffective in raising the performance of employees and unable to assist employees to grow. The performance bonuses were no longer paid to qualifying employees. The study also revealed that lack of capacity and commitment, poor communication, constant policy changes, financial constraints, weak and highly bureaucratic management structures, union interference were challenges that were encountered during the implementation of the performance management and development system. Lastly, employees and supervisors were rating themselves three irrespective of how well or bad they performed. Conclusion: Performance management is regarded as vital to improved performance of the health workforce and healthcare service delivery among populations. Effective implementation of performance management and development system depends on well-capacitated and unbiased management at facility levels. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve communication, link performance management to rewards, and capacitate staff on performance management and development system, as it is key to improved public health sector outcomes or performance.

Keywords: challenges, implementation, performance management and development system, public hospital

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Authors: Golson Mohamed, Yasmine Gamasy, Khaled EL-Khatib, Anas Al-Natour, Shady Fadel, Haytham Rashwan, Haytham Badawy, Nadia Farghaly

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Introduction: Wilm's tumor is the most common malignant renal tumor in children. Much progress has been made in the management of patients with this malignancy over the last 3 decades. Today treatments are based on several trials and studies conducted by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP) in Europe and National Wilm's Tumor Study Group (NWTS) in the USA. It is necessary for us to understand why do we follow either of the protocols, NWTS which follows the upfront surgery principle or the SIOP which follows the upfront chemotherapy principle in all stages of the disease. Objective: The aim of is to assess outcome in patients treated with preoperative chemotherapy and patients treated with upfront surgery to compare their effect on overall survival. Study design: to decide which protocol to follow, study was carried out on records for patients aged 1 day to 18 years old suffering from Wilm's tumor who were admitted to Alexandria University Hospital, pediatric oncology, pediatric urology and pediatric surgery departments, with a retrospective survey records from 2010 to 2015, Design and editing of the transfer sheet with a (PRISMA flow study) Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Data were fed to the computer and analyzed using IBM SPSS software package version 20.0. (11) Qualitative data were described using number and percent. Quantitative data were described using Range (minimum and maximum), mean, standard deviation and median. Comparison between different groups regarding categorical variables was tested using Chi-square test. When more than 20% of the cells have expected count less than 5, correction for chi-square was conducted using Fisher’s Exact test or Monte Carlo correction. The distributions of quantitative variables were tested for normality using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Shapiro-Wilk test, and D'Agstino test, if it reveals normal data distribution, parametric tests were applied. If the data were abnormally distributed, non-parametric tests were used. For normally distributed data, a comparison between two independent populations was done using independent t-test. For abnormally distributed data, comparison between two independent populations was done using Mann-Whitney test. Significance of the obtained results was judged at the 5% level. Results: A significantly statistical difference was observed for survival between the two studied groups favoring the upfront chemotherapy(86.4%)as compared to the upfront surgery group (59.3%) where P=0.009. As regard complication, 20 cases (74.1%) out of 27 were complicated in the group of patients treated with upfront surgery. Meanwhile, 30 cases (68.2%) out of 44 had complications in patients treated with upfront chemotherapy. Also, the incidence of intraoperative complication (rupture) was less in upfront chemotherapy group as compared to upfront surgery group. Conclusion: Upfront chemotherapy has superiority over upfront surgery.As the patient who started with upfront chemotherapy shown, higher survival rate, less percent in complication, less percent needed for radiotherapy, and less rate in recurrence.

Keywords: Wilm's tumor, renal tumor, chemotherapy, surgery

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Authors: Eduardo Antonio Lozano Hernandez, Nancy Ramirez Alvarez, Lorena Margarita Rios Mendoza, Jose Vinicio Macias Zamora, Felix Augusto Hernandez Guzman, Jose Luis Sanchez Osorio

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Microplastics (MPs) are one of the most numerous reported wastes found in the marine ecosystem, representing one of the greatest risks for organisms that inhabit that environment due to their bioavailability. Such is the case of bivalve mollusks, since they are capable of filtering large volumes of water, which increases the risk of contamination by microplastics through the continuous exposure to these materials. This study aims to determine, quantify and characterize microplastics found in the cultured oyster Crassostrea gigas. We also analyzed if there are spatio-temporal differences in the microplastic concentration of organisms grown in two bays having quite different human population. In addition, we wanted to have an idea of the possible impact on humans via consumption of these organisms. Commercial size organisms (>6cm length; n = 15) were collected by triplicate from eight oyster farming sites in Baja California, Mexico during winter and summer. Two sites are located in Todos Santos Bay (TSB), while the other six are located in San Quintin Bay (SQB). Site selection was based on commercial concessions for oyster farming in each bay. The organisms were chemically digested with 30% KOH (w/v) and 30% H₂O₂ (v/v) to remove the organic matter and subsequently filtered using a GF/D filter. All particles considered as possible MPs were quantified according to their physical characteristics using a stereoscopic microscope. The type of synthetic polymer was determined using a FTIR-ATR microscope and using a user as well as a commercial reference library (Nicolet iN10 Thermo Scientific, Inc.) of IR spectra of plastic polymers (with a certainty ≥70% for polymers pure; ≥50% for composite polymers). Plastic microfibers were found in all the samples analyzed. However, a low incidence of MP fragments was observed in our study (approximately 9%). The synthetic polymers identified were mainly polyester and polyacrylonitrile. In addition, polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, nylon, and T. elastomer. On average, the content of microplastics in organisms were higher in TSB (0.05 ± 0.01 plastic particles (pp)/g of wet weight) than found in SQB (0.02 ± 0.004 pp/g of wet weight) in the winter period. The highest concentration of MPs found in TSB coincides with the rainy season in the region, which increases the runoff from streams and wastewater discharges to the bay, as well as the larger population pressure (> 500,000 inhabitants). Otherwise, SQB is a mainly rural location, where surface runoff from streams is minimal and in addition, does not have a wastewater discharge into the bay. During the summer, no significant differences (Manne-Whitney U test; P=0.484) were observed in the concentration of MPs found in the cultured oysters of TSB and SQB, (average: 0.01 ± 0.003 pp/g and 0.01 ± 0.002 pp/g, respectively). Finally, we concluded that the consumption of oyster does not represent a risk for humans due to the low concentrations of MPs found. The concentration of MPs is influenced by the variables such as temporality, circulations dynamics of the bay and existing demographic pressure.

Keywords: FTIR-ATR, Human risk, Microplastic, Oyster

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Authors: Salima R. Rajwani, Tazeen Ali, Rubina Barolia, Yasmin Parpio, Nasreen Alwani, Salima B. Virani

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Introduction: Nurses and physicians have a critical role in initiating lifesaving interventions during cardiac arrest. It is important that timely delivery of high quality Cardio Pulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) with advanced resuscitation skills and management of cardiac arrhythmias is a key dimension of code during cardiac arrest. It will decrease the chances of patient survival if the healthcare professionals are unable to initiate CPR timely. Moreover, traditional training will not prepare physicians and nurses at a competent level and their knowledge level declines over a period of time. In this regard, simulation training has been proven to be effective in promoting resuscitation skills. Simulation teaching learning strategy improves knowledge level, and skills performance during resuscitation through experiential learning without compromising patient safety in real clinical situations. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of simulation training in Advanced Cardiac Life Support Courses by using the selfefficacy tool. Methods: The study design is a quantitative research design and non-randomized quasi-experimental study design. The study examined the effectiveness of simulation through self-efficacy in two instructional methods; one is Medium Fidelity Simulation (MFS) and second is Traditional Training Method (TTM). The sample size was 220. Data was compiled by using the SPSS tool. The standardized simulation based training increases self-efficacy, knowledge, and skills and improves the management of patients in actual resuscitation. Results: 153 students participated in study; CG: n = 77 and EG: n = 77. The comparison was done between arms in pre and post-test. (F value was 1.69, p value is <0.195 and df was 1). There was no significant difference between arms in the pre and post-test. The interaction between arms was observed and there was no significant difference in interaction between arms in the pre and post-test. (F value was 0.298, p value is <0.586 and df is 1. However, the results showed self-efficacy scores were significantly higher within experimental group in post-test in advanced cardiac life support resuscitation courses as compared to Traditional Training Method (TTM) and had overall (p <0.0001) and F value was 143.316 (mean score was 45.01 and SD was 9.29) verses pre-test result showed (mean score was 31.15 and SD was 12.76) as compared to TTM in post-test (mean score was 29.68 and SD was 14.12) verses pre-test result showed (mean score was 42.33 and SD was 11.39). Conclusion: The standardized simulation-based training was conducted in the safe learning environment in Advanced Cardiac Life Suport Courses and physicians and nurses benefited from self-confidence, early identification of life-threatening scenarios, early initiation of CPR, and provides high-quality CPR, timely administration of medication and defibrillation, appropriate airway management, rhythm analysis and interpretation, and Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC), team dynamics, debriefing, and teaching and learning strategies that will improve the patient survival in actual resuscitation.

Keywords: advanced cardiac life support, cardio pulmonary resuscitation, return of spontaneous circulation, simulation

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Authors: Zeradam Yeshiwas, A. Krishnaia

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The aim of this study is to verify the resulting surface roughness of parts formed by the Single-Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) process for an ISO 3574 Drawing Quality Cold Rolled CR2 Steel. The chemical composition of drawing quality Cold Rolled CR2 steel is comprised of 0.12 percent of carbon, 0.5 percent of manganese, 0.035 percent of sulfur, 0.04 percent phosphorous, and the remaining percentage is iron with negligible impurities. The experiments were performed on a 3-axis vertical CNC milling machining center equipped with a tool setup comprising a fixture and forming tools specifically designed and fabricated for the process. The CNC milling machine was used to transfer the tool path code generated in Mastercam 2017 environment into three-dimensional motions by the linear incremental progress of the spindle. The blanks of Drawing Quality Cold Rolled CR2 steel sheets of 1 mm of thickness have been fixed along their periphery by a fixture and hardened high-speed steel (HSS) tools with a hemispherical tip of 8, 10 and 12mm of diameter were employed to fabricate sample parts. To investigate the surface roughness, hyperbolic-cone shape specimens were fabricated based on the chosen experimental design. The effect of process parameters on the surface roughness was studied using three important process parameters, i.e., tool diameter, feed rate, and step depth. In this study, the Taylor-Hobson Surtronic 3+ surface roughness tester profilometer was used to determine the surface roughness of the parts fabricated using the arithmetic mean deviation (Rₐ). In this instrument, a small tip is dragged across a surface while its deflection is recorded. Finally, the optimum process parameters and the main factor affecting surface roughness were found using the Taguchi design of the experiment and ANOVA. A Taguchi experiment design with three factors and three levels for each factor, the standard orthogonal array L9 (3³) was selected for the study using the array selection table. The lowest value of surface roughness is significant for surface roughness improvement. For this objective, the ‘‘smaller-the-better’’ equation was used for the calculation of the S/N ratio. The finishing roughness parameter Ra has been measured for the different process combinations. The arithmetic means deviation (Rₐ) was measured via the experimental design for each combination of the control factors by using Taguchi experimental design. Four roughness measurements were taken for a single component and the average roughness was taken to optimize the surface roughness. The lowest value of Rₐ is very important for surface roughness improvement. For this reason, the ‘‘smaller-the-better’’ Equation was used for the calculation of the S/N ratio. Analysis of the effect of each control factor on the surface roughness was performed with a ‘‘S/N response table’’. Optimum surface roughness was obtained at a feed rate of 1500 mm/min, with a tool radius of 12 mm, and with a step depth of 0.5 mm. The ANOVA result shows that step depth is an essential factor affecting surface roughness (91.1 %).

Keywords: incremental forming, SPIF, drawing quality steel, surface roughness, roughness behavior

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Authors: Iliana Georganta, Clare Deehan, Marysia Thomson, Miriam McDonald, Kerrie McNulty, Anna Strachan, Elizabeth Anderson, Alyaa Mostafa

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Context: A meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing hysterectomy versus endometrial ablation and resection in the management of heavy menstrual bleeding. Objective: To evaluate the clinical efficacy, satisfaction rates and adverse events of hysterectomy compared to more minimally invasive techniques in the treatment of HMB. Evidence Acquisition: A literature search was performed for all RCTs and quasi-RCTs comparing hysterectomy with either endometrial ablation endometrial resection of both. The search had no language restrictions and was last updated in June 2020 using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials, PubMed, Google Scholar, PsycINFO, Clinicaltrials.gov and Clinical trials. EU. In addition, a manual search of the abstract databases of the European Haemophilia Conference on women's health was performed and further studies were identified from references of acquired papers. The primary outcomes were patient-reported and objective reduction in heavy menstrual bleeding up to 2 years and after 2 years. Secondary outcomes included satisfaction rates, pain, adverse events short and long term, quality of life and sexual function, further surgery, duration of surgery and hospital stay and time to return to work and normal activities. Data were analysed using RevMan software. Evidence synthesis: 12 studies and a total of 2028 women were included (hysterectomy: n = 977 women vs endometrial ablation or resection: n = 1051 women). Hysterectomy was compared with endometrial ablation only in five studies (Lin, Dickersin, Sesti, Jain, Cooper) and endometrial resection only in five studies (Gannon, Schulpher, O’Connor, Crosignani, Zupi) and a mixture of the Ablation and Resection in two studies (Elmantwe, Pinion). Of the 1² studies, 10 reported women’s perception of bleeding symptoms as improved. Meta-analysis showed that women in the hysterectomy group were more likely to show improvement in bleeding symptoms when compared with endometrial ablation or resection up to 2-year follow-up (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.79, I² = 95%). Objective outcomes of improvement in bleeding also favored hysterectomy. Patient satisfaction was higher after hysterectomy within the 2 years follow-up (RR: 0.90, 95%CI: 0.86 to 0.94, I²:58%), however, there was no significant difference between the two groups at more than 2 years follow up. Sepsis (RR: 0.03, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.56; 1 study), wound infection (RR: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.28, I²: 0%, 3 studies) and Urinary tract infection (UTI) (RR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.10 to 0.42, I²: 0%, 4 studies) all favoured hysteroscopic techniques. Fluid overload (RR: 7.80, 95% CI: 2.16 to 28.16, I² :0%, 4 studies) and perforation (RR: 5.42, 95% CI: 1.25 to 23.45, I²: 0%, 4 studies) however favoured hysterectomy in the short term. Conclusions: This meta-analysis has demonstrated that endometrial ablation and endometrial resection are both viable options when compared with hysterectomy for the treatment of heavy menstrual bleeding. Hysteroscopic procedures had better outcomes in the short term with fewer adverse events including wound infection, UTI and sepsis. The hysterectomy performed better when measuring more long-term impacts such as recurrence of symptoms, overall satisfaction at two years and the need for further treatment or surgery.

Keywords: menorrhagia, hysterectomy, ablation, resection

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Authors: Nelomi Anandagoda, Leanne J. Eveson

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, the surge in in-patient admissions across the medical directorate of a district general hospital necessitated the implementation of an incident rota. Conscious of the impact on training and professional development, the idea of developing a virtual teaching programme was conceived. The programme initially aimed to provide junior doctors, specialist nurses, pharmacists, and allied healthcare professionals from medical specialties and those re-deployed from other specialties (e.g., ophthalmology, GP, surgery, psychiatry) the knowledge and skills to manage the deteriorating patient with COVID-19. The programme was later developed to incorporate the general internal medicine curriculum. To facilitate continuing medical education whilst maintaining social distancing during this period, a virtual platform was used to deliver teaching to junior doctors across two large district general hospitals and two community hospitals. Teaching sessions were recorded and uploaded to a common platform, providing a resource for participants to catch up on and re-watch teaching sessions, making strides towards reducing discrimination against the professional development of less than full-time trainees. Thus, creating a learning environment, which is inclusive and accessible to adult learners in a self-directed manner. The negative impact of the pandemic on the well-being of healthcare professionals is well documented. To support the multi-disciplinary team, the virtual teaching programme evolved to included sessions on well-being, resilience, and work-life balance. Providing teaching for learners across the multi-disciplinary team (MDT) has been an eye-opening experience. By challenging the concept that learners should only be taught within their own peer groups, the authors have fostered a greater appreciation of the strengths of the MDT and showcased the immense wealth of expertise available within the trust. The inclusive nature of the teaching and the ease of joining a virtual teaching session has facilitated the dissemination of knowledge across the MDT, thus improving patient care on the frontline. The weekly teaching programme has been running for over eight months, with ongoing engagement, interest, and participation. As described above, the teaching programme has evolved to accommodate the needs of its learners. It has received excellent feedback with an appreciation of its inclusive, multi-disciplinary, and holistic nature. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a catalyst to rapidly develop novel methods of working and training and widened access/exposure to the virtual technologies available to large organisations. By merging pedagogical expertise and technology, the authors have created an effective online learning environment. Although the authors do not propose to replace face-to-face teaching altogether, this model of virtual multidisciplinary team, cross-site teaching has proven to be a great leveler. It has made high-quality teaching accessible to learners of different confidence levels, grades, specialties, and working patterns.

Keywords: cross-site, cross-speciality, inter-disciplinary, multidisciplinary, virtual teaching

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: Hafsa Memona, Farkhanda Manzoor

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Cockroaches are termed as medically important pests because of their wide distribution in human habitation including houses, hospitals, food industries and kitchens. They may harbor multiple drug resistant pathogenic bacteria and protozoan parasites on their external surfaces, disseminate on human food and cause serious diseases and allergies to human. Hence, they are regarded as mechanical vector in human habitation due to their nocturnal activity and nutritional behavior. Viable eggs and dormant cysts of parasites can hitch a ride on cockroaches. Ova and cysts of parasitic organism may settle into the crevices and cracks between thorax and head. There are so many fissures and clefts and crannies on a cockroach which provide site for these organisms. This study aimed with identifying role of cockroaches in mechanically transmitting and disseminating gastrointestinal parasites in two environmental settings; hospitals and houses in urban area of Lahore. Totally, 250 adult cockroaches were collected from houses and hospitals by sticky traps and food baited traps and screened for parasitic load. All cockroaches were captured during their feeding time in natural habitat. Direct wet smear, 1% lugols iodine and modified acid-fast bacilli staining were used to identify the parasites from the body surfaces of cockroaches. Among human habitation two common species of cockroaches were collected i.e. P. americana and B. germanica. The results showed that 112 (46.8%) cockroaches harbored at least one human intestinal parasite on their body surfaces. The cockroaches from hospital environment harboured more parasites than houses. 47 (33.57%) cockroaches from houses and 65 (59.09%) from hospitals were infected with parasitic organisms. Of these, 76 (67.85%) were parasitic protozoans and 36(32.15%) were pathogenic and non-pathogenic intestinal parasites. P. americana harboured more parasites as compared to B. germanica in both environment. Most common human intestinal parasites found on cockroaches include ova of Ascaris lumbricoides (giant roundworm), Trichuris trichura (whipworm), Anchylostoma deodunalae (hookworm), Enterobius vermicularis (pinworm), Taenia spp. and Strongyloides stercoralis (threadworm). The cysts of protozoans’ parasites including Balantidium coli, Entomoeba hystolitica, C. parvum, Isospora belli, Giardia duodenalis and C. cayetenensis were isolated and identified from cockroaches. Both experimental sites were significantly different in carriage of parasitic load on cockroaches. Difference in the hygienic condition of the environments, including human excrement disposal, variable habitat interacted, indoor and outdoor species, may account for the observed variation in the parasitic carriage rate of cockroaches among different experimental site. Thus a finding of this study is that Cockroaches are uniformly distributed in human habitation and act as a mechanical vector of pathogenic parasites that cause common illness such as diarrhea and bowel disorders. This fact contributes to epidemiological chain therefore control of cockroaches will significantly lessen the prevalence of illness in human. Effective control strategies will reduce the public health burden of the gastro-intestinal parasites in the developing countries.

Keywords: cockroaches, health risks, hospitals, houses, parasites, protozoans, transmission

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Authors: Oyvind Nordvik, Peder O. L. Heggdal, Jonas Brannstrom, Flemming Vassbotn, Anne Kari Aarstad, Hans Jorgen Aarstad

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Background: Hearing Loss (HL) is a condition that may affect people in all stages of life, but the prevalence increases with age, mostly because of age-related HL, generally referred to as presbyacusis. As human speech is related to relatively high frequencies, even a limited hearing loss at high frequencies may cause impaired speech intelligibility. Being diagnosed with, treated for and living with a chronic condition such as HL, must for many be a disabling and stressful condition that put ones coping resources to test. Stress is a natural part of life and most people will experience stressful events or periods. Chronic diseases, such as HL, are risk factor for distress in individuals, causing anxiety and lowered mood. How an individual cope with HL may be closely connected to the level of distress he or she is experiencing and to personality, which can be defined as those characteristics of a person that account for consistent patterns of feelings, thinking, and behavior. Thus, as to distress in life, such as illness or disease, available coping strategies may be more important than the challenge itself. The same line of arguments applies to level of experienced health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between distress, HRQoL, reported hearing loss, personality and coping in patients with HL. Method: 158 adult (aged 18-78 years) patients with HL, referred for hearing aid (HA) fitting at Haukeland University Hospital in western Norway, participated in the study. Both first-time users, as well as patients referred for HA renewals were included. First-time users had been pre-examined by an ENT-specialist. The questionnaires were answered before the actual HA fitting procedure. The pure-tone average (PTA; frequencies 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz) was determined for each ear. The Eysenck personality inventory, neuroticism and lie scales, the Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (TOMCATS) measuring active coping, hopelessness and helplessness, as well as distress (General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) - 12 items) and the EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire general part were answered. In addition, we used a revised and shortened version of the Abbreviated Profile of Hearing Aid Benefit (APHAB) as a measure of patient-reported hearing loss. Results: Significant correlations were determined between APHAB (weak), HRQoL scores (strong), distress scores (strong) on the one side and personality and choice of coping scores on the other side. As measured by stepwise regression analyses, the distress and HRQoL scores were scored secondary to the obtained personality and coping scores. The APHAB scores were as determined by regression analyses scored secondary to PTA (best ear), level of neuroticism and lie score. Conclusion: We found that reported employed coping style, distress/HRQoL and personality are closely connected to each other in this patient group. Patient-reported HL was associated to hearing level and personality. There is need for further investigations on these questions, and how these associations may influence the clinical context.

Keywords: coping, distress, hearing loss, personality

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Authors: Mercedes Bertotto, Marcelo Bello, Hector Goicoechea, Veronica Fusca

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The National Service of Agri-Food Health and Quality (SENASA), controls honey to detect contamination by synthetic or natural chemical substances and establishes and controls the traceability of the product. The utility of near-infrared spectroscopy for the detection of adulteration of honey with high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) was investigated. First of all, a mixture of different authentic artisanal Argentinian honey was prepared to cover as much heterogeneity as possible. Then, mixtures were prepared by adding different concentrations of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) to samples of the honey pool. 237 samples were used, 108 of them were authentic honey and 129 samples corresponded to honey adulterated with HFCS between 1 and 10%. They were stored unrefrigerated from time of production until scanning and were not filtered after receipt in the laboratory. Immediately prior to spectral collection, honey was incubated at 40°C overnight to dissolve any crystalline material, manually stirred to achieve homogeneity and adjusted to a standard solids content (70° Brix) with distilled water. Adulterant solutions were also adjusted to 70° Brix. Samples were measured by NIR spectroscopy in the range of 650 to 7000 cm⁻¹. The technique of specular reflectance was used, with a lens aperture range of 150 mm. Pretreatment of the spectra was performed by Standard Normal Variate (SNV). The ant colony optimization genetic algorithm sample selection (ACOGASS) graphical interface was used, using MATLAB version 5.3, to select the variables with the greatest discriminating power. The data set was divided into a validation set and a calibration set, using the Kennard-Stone (KS) algorithm. A combined method of Potential Functions (PF) was chosen together with Partial Least Square Linear Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA). Different estimators of the predictive capacity of the model were compared, which were obtained using a decreasing number of groups, which implies more demanding validation conditions. The optimal number of latent variables was selected as the number associated with the minimum error and the smallest number of unassigned samples. Once the optimal number of latent variables was defined, we proceeded to apply the model to the training samples. With the calibrated model for the training samples, we proceeded to study the validation samples. The calibrated model that combines the potential function methods and PLSDA can be considered reliable and stable since its performance in future samples is expected to be comparable to that achieved for the training samples. By use of Potential Functions (PF) and Partial Least Square Linear Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) classification, authentic honey and honey adulterated with HFCS could be identified with a correct classification rate of 97.9%. The results showed that NIR in combination with the PT and PLS-DS methods can be a simple, fast and low-cost technique for the detection of HFCS in honey with high sensitivity and power of discrimination.

Keywords: adulteration, multivariate analysis, potential functions, regression

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Authors: Carlos Herrera Sierralta, Husain M. Muslim, Meshal T. Alsaiari, Daniel Fischer

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Preventing piping fatigue flow induced vibration in the Oil & Gas sector demands not only the constant development of engineering design methodologies based on available software packages, but also special piping support technologies for designing safe and reliable piping systems. The vast majority of piping vibration problems in the Oil & Gas industry are provoked by the process flow characteristics which are basically intrinsically related to the fluid properties, the type of service and its different operational scenarios. In general, the corrective actions recommended for flow induced vibration in piping systems can be grouped in two major areas: those which affect the excitation mechanisms typically associated to process variables, and those which affect the response mechanism of the pipework per se, and the pipework associated steel support structure. Where possible the first option is to try to solve the flow induced problem from the excitation mechanism perspective. However, in producing facilities the approach of changing process parameters might not always be convenient as it could lead to reduction of production rates or it may require the shutdown of the system in order to perform the required piping modification. That impediment might lead to a second option, which is to modify the response of the piping system to excitation generated by the type of process flow. In principle, the action of shifting the natural frequency of the system well above the frequency inherent to the process always favours the elimination, or considerably reduces, the level of vibration experienced by the piping system. Tightening up the clearances at the supports (ideally zero gap), and adding new static supports at the system, are typical ways of increasing the natural frequency of the piping system. However, only stiffening the piping system may not be sufficient to resolve the vibration problem, and in some cases, it might not be feasible to implement it at all, as the available piping layout could create limitations on adding supports due to thermal expansion/contraction requirements. In these cases, utilization of viscous damper supports could be recommended as these devices can allow relatively large quasi-static movement of piping while providing sufficient capabilities of dissipating the vibration. Therefore, when correctly selected and installed, viscous damper supports can provide a significant effect on the response of the piping system over a wide range of frequencies. Viscous dampers cannot be used to support sustained, static loads. This paper shows over a real case example, a methodology which allows to determine the selection of the viscous damper supports via a dynamic analysis model. By implementing this methodology, it was possible to resolve the piping vibration problem throughout redesigning adequately the existing static piping supports and by adding new viscous dampers supports. This was conducted on-stream at the oil crude pipeline in question without the necessity of reducing the production of the plant. Concluding that the application of the methodology of this paper can be applied to solve similar cases in a straightforward manner.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, flow induced vibration, piping supports, turbulent flow, slug flow, viscous damper

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Authors: Theophilus Asante, Comfort Nyarko, Daniel Antwi

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Drug-resistant tuberculosis, together with the associated comorbidities like pulmonary fibrosis and silicosis, has been one of the most serious global public health threats that requires immediate action to curb or mitigate it. This prolongs hospital stays, increases the cost of medication, and increases the death toll recorded annually. Crinum asiaticum bulb (CAE) and betulin (BET) are known for their biological and pharmacological effects. Pharmacological effects reported on CAE include antimicrobial, anti-inflammatory, anti-pyretic, anti-analgesic, and anti-cancer effects. Betulin has exhibited a multitude of powerful pharmacological properties ranging from antitumor, anti-inflammatory, anti-parasitic, anti-microbial, and anti-viral activities. This work sought to investigate the anti-tuberculosis and resistant modulatory effects and also assess their effects on mitigating pulmonary fibrosis and silicosis. In the anti-tuberculosis and resistant modulatory effects, both CAE and BET showed strong antimicrobial activities (31.25 ≤ MIC ≤ 500) µg/ml against the studied microorganisms and also produced significant anti-efflux pump and biofilm inhibitory effects (ρ < 0.0001) as well as exhibiting resistance modulatory and synergistic effects when combined with standard antibiotics. Crinum asiaticum bulbs extract and betulin were shown to possess anti-pulmonary fibrosis effects. There was an increased survival rate in the CAE and BET treatment groups compared to the BLM-induced group. There was a marked decrease in the levels of hydroxyproline and collagen I and III in the CAE and BET treatment groups compared to the BLM-treated group. The treatment groups of CAE and BET significantly downregulated the levels of pro-fibrotic and pro-inflammatory cytokine concentrations such as TGF-β1, MMP9, IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-alpha compared to an increase in the BLM-treated groups. The histological findings of the lungs suggested the curative effects of CAE and BET following BLM-induced pulmonary fibrosis in mice. The study showed improved lung functions with a wide focal area of viable alveolar spaces and few collagen fibers deposition on the lungs of the treatment groups. In the anti-silicosis and pulmonoprotective effects of CAE and BET, the levels of NF-κB, TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 and hydroxyproline, collagen types I and III were significantly reduced by CAE and BET (ρ < 0.0001). Both CAE and BET significantly (ρ < 0.0001) inhibited the levels of hydroxyproline, collagen I and III when compared with the negative control group. On BALF biomarkers such as macrophages, lymphocytes, monocytes, and neutrophils, CAE and BET were able to reduce their levels significantly (ρ < 0.0001). The CAE and BET were examined for anti-oxidant activity and shown to raise the levels of catalase (CAT) and superoxide dismutase (SOD) while lowering the level of malondialdehyde (MDA). There was an improvement in lung function when lung tissues were examined histologically. Crinum asiaticum bulbs extract and betulin were discovered to exhibit anti-tubercular and resistance-modulatory properties, as well as the capacity to minimize TB comorbidities such as pulmonary fibrosis and silicosis. In addition, CAE and BET may act as protective mechanisms, facilitating the preservation of the lung's physiological integrity. The outcomes of this study might pave the way for the development of leads for producing single medications for the management of drug-resistant tuberculosis and its accompanying comorbidities.

Keywords: fibrosis, crinum, tuberculosis, antiinflammation, drug resistant

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Mona Isazad Mashinchi, Davood Roshan Sangachin, Francis J. Sullivan, Dietrich Rebholz-Schuhmann

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Background: Decision-making processes are nowadays driven by data, data analytics and Business Intelligence (BI). BI as a software platform can provide a wide variety of capabilities such as organization memory, information integration, insight creation and presentation capabilities. Visualizing data through dashboards is one of the BI solutions (for a variety of areas) which helps managers in the decision making processes to expose the most informative information at a glance. In the healthcare domain to date, dashboard presentations are more frequently used to track performance related metrics and less frequently used to monitor those quality parameters which relate directly to patient outcomes. Providing effective and timely care for patients and improving the health outcome are highly dependent on presenting and visualizing data and information. Objective: In this research, the focus is on the presentation capabilities of BI to design a dashboard for prostate cancer (PC) data that allows better decision making for the patients, the hospital and the healthcare system related to a cancer dataset. The aim of this research is to customize a retrospective PC dataset in a dashboard interface to give a better understanding of data in the categories (risk factors, treatment approaches, disease control and side effects) which matter most to patients as well as other stakeholders. By presenting the outcome in the dashboard we address one of the major targets of a value-based health care (VBHC) delivery model which is measuring the value and presenting the outcome to different actors in HC industry (such as patients and doctors) for a better decision making. Method: For visualizing the stored data to users, three interactive dashboards based on the PC dataset have been developed (using the Tableau Software) to provide better views to the risk factors, treatment approaches, and side effects. Results: Many benefits derived from interactive graphs and tables in dashboards which helped to easily visualize and see the patients at risk, better understanding the relationship between patient's status after treatment and their initial status before treatment, or to choose better decision about treatments with fewer side effects regarding patient status and etc. Conclusions: Building a well-designed and informative dashboard is related to three important factors including; the users, goals and the data types. Dashboard's hierarchies, drilling, and graphical features can guide doctors to better navigate through information. The features of the interactive PC dashboard not only let doctors ask specific questions and filter the results based on the key performance indicators (KPI) such as: Gleason Grade, Patient's Age and Status, but may also help patients to better understand different treatment outcomes, such as side effects during the time, and have an active role in their treatment decisions. Currently, we are extending the results to the real-time interactive dashboard that users (either patients and doctors) can easily explore the data by choosing preferred attribute and data to make better near real-time decisions.

Keywords: business intelligence, dashboard, decision making, healthcare, prostate cancer, value-based healthcare

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Nikitha Francis, Anjana Hoode, Vinitha George, Jayashree S. Bhat

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The interaction between cognition and language, referred as cognitive-communication, is very intricate, involving several mental processes such as perception, memory, attention, lexical retrieval, decision making, motor planning, self-monitoring and knowledge. Cognitive-communication disorders are difficulties in communicative competencies that result from underlying cognitive impairments of attention, memory, organization, information processing, problem solving, and executive functions. Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an acquired, non - progressive condition, resulting in distinct deficits of cognitive communication abilities such as naming, word-finding, self-monitoring, auditory recognition, attention, perception and memory. Cognitive-communication intervention in TBI is individualized, in order to enhance the person’s ability to process and interpret information for better functioning in their family and community life. The present case report illustrates the cognitive-communicative behaviors and the intervention outcomes of an adult with TBI, who was brought to the Department of Audiology and Speech Language Pathology, with cognitive and communicative disturbances, consequent to road traffic accident. On a detailed assessment, she showed naming deficits along with perseverations and had severe difficulty in recalling the details of the accident, her house address, places she had visited earlier, names of people known to her, as well as the activities she did each day, leading to severe breakdowns in her communicative abilities. She had difficulty in initiating, maintaining and following a conversation. She also lacked orientation to time and place. On administration of the Manipal Manual of Cognitive Linguistic Abilities (MMCLA), she exhibited poor performance on tasks related to visual and auditory perception, short term memory, working memory and executive functions. She attended 20 sessions of cognitive-communication intervention which followed a domain-general, adaptive training paradigm, with tasks relevant to everyday cognitive-communication skills. Compensatory strategies such as maintaining a dairy with reminders of her daily routine, names of people, date, time and place was also recommended. MMCLA was re-administered and her performance in the tasks showed significant improvements. Occurrence of perseverations and word retrieval difficulties reduced. She developed interests to initiate her day-to-day activities at home independently, as well as involve herself in conversations with her family members. Though she lacked awareness about her deficits, she actively involved herself in all the therapy activities. Rehabilitation of moderate to severe head injury patients can be done effectively through a holistic cognitive retraining with a focus on different cognitive-linguistic domains. Selection of goals and activities should have relevance to the functional needs of each individual with TBI, as highlighted in the present case report.

Keywords: cognitive-communication, executive functions, memory, traumatic brain injury

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: M. Kazou, A. Gavriil, O. Kalagkatsi, T. Paschos, E. Tsakalidou

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Kopanisti cheese is a Greek soft Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) cheese made of raw cow, sheep or goat milk, or mixtures of them, with similar organoleptic characteristics to that of Roquefort cheese. Traditional manufacturing of Kopanisti cheese is limited in small-scale dairies, without the addition of starter cultures. Instead, an amount of over-mature Kopanisti cheese, called Mana Kopanisti, is used to initiate ripening. Therefore, the selection of proper starter cultures and the understanding of the contribution of various microbial groups to its overall quality is crucial for the production of a high-quality final product with standardized organoleptic and physicochemical characteristics. Taking the above into account, the aim of the present study was the investigation of Kopanisti cheese microbiota and its role in cheese quality. For this purpose, four different types of Kopanisti were produced in triplicates, all with pasteurized cow milk, with the addition of (A) the typical mesophilic species Lactococcus lactis and Lactobacillus paracasei used as starters in the production of soft spread cheeses, (B) strains of Lactobacillus acidipiscis and Lactobacillus rennini previously isolated from Kopanisti and Mana Kopanisti, (C) all the species from (A) and (B) as inoculum, and finally (D) the species from (A) and Mana Kopanisti. Physicochemical and microbiological analysis was performed for milk and cheese samples during ripening. Enumeration was performed for major groups of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), total mesophilic bacteria, yeasts as well as hygiene indicator microorganisms. Bacterial isolates from all the different LAB groups, apart from enterococci, alongside yeasts isolates, were initially grouped using repetitive sequence-based polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR) and then identified at the species level using 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer (ITS) DNA region sequencing, respectively. Sensory evaluation was also performed for final cheese samples at the end of the ripening period (35 days). Based on the results of the classical microbiological analysis, the average counts of the total mesophilic bacteria and LAB, apart from enterococci, ranged between 7 and 10 log colony forming unit (CFU) g⁻¹, phychrotrophic bacteria, and yeast extract glucose chloramphenicol (YGC) isolates between 4 and 8 log CFU g⁻¹, while coliforms and enterococci up to 2 log CFU g⁻¹ throughout ripening in cheese samples A, C and D. In contrast, in cheese sample B, the average counts of the total mesophilic bacteria and LAB, apart from enterococci, phychrotrophic bacteria, and YGC isolates ranged between 0 and 10 log CFU g⁻¹ and coliforms and enterococci up to 2 log CFU g⁻¹. Although the microbial counts were not that different among samples, identification of the bacterial and yeasts isolates revealed the complex microbial community structure present in each cheese sample. Differences in the physicochemical characteristics among the cheese samples were also observed, with pH ranging from 4.3 to 5.3 and moisture from 49.6 to 58.0 % in the final cheese products. Interestingly, the sensory evaluation also revealed differences among samples, with cheese sample B ranking first based on the total score. Overall, the combination of these analyses highlighted the impact of different starter cultures on the Kopanisti microbiota as well as on the physicochemical and sensory characteristics of the final product.

Keywords: Kopanisti cheese, microbiota, classical microbiological analysis, physicochemical analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: L. Kashyap, S. Jha, D. Shende, V. K. Mohan, P. Khanna, A. Aravindan, S. Kashyap, L. Singh, S. Aggarwal

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Obesity is associated with a chronic inflammatory state. During surgery, there is an interplay between anaesthetic and surgical stress vis-a-vis the already present complex immune state. Moreover, the postoperative period is dictated by inflammation, which is crucial for wound healing and regeneration. An excess of inflammatory response might hamper recovery besides increasing the risk for infection and complications. There is definite evidence of the immunosuppressive role of inhaled anaesthetic agents. This immune modulation may be brought into effect directly by influencing the innate and adaptive immunity cells. The effects of propofol on immune mechanisms in has been widely elucidated because of its popularity. It reduces superoxide generation, elastase release, and chemotaxis. However, there is no unequivocal proof of one’s superiority over the other. Hence, an anaesthetic regimen with lesser inflammatory potential and specific to the obese patient is needed. OBESITA trial protocol (2019) by Sousa and co-workers in progress aims to test the hypothesis that anaesthesia with sevoflurane results in a weaker proinflammatory response compared to propofol, as evidenced by lower IL-6 and other biomarkers and an increased macrophage differentiation into M2 phenotype in adipose tissue. IL-6 was used as the objective parameter to evaluate inflammation as it is regulated by both surgery and anesthesia. It is the most sensitive marker of the inflammatory response to tissue damage since it is released within minutes by blood leukocytes. We hypothesized that maintenance of anaesthesia with propofol would lead to less inflammation than that with desflurane. Aims: The effect of two anaesthetic techniques, total intravenous anaesthesia (TIVA) with propofol and desflurane, on surgical stress response was evaluated. The primary objective was to compare serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels before and after surgery. Methods: In this prospective single-blinded randomized controlled trial undertaken, 30 obese patients (BMI>30 kg/m2) undergoing laparoscopic bariatric surgery under general anaesthesia were recruited. Patients were randomized to receive desflurane or TIVA using a target-controlled infusion for maintenance of anaesthesia. As a marker of inflammation, pre-and post-surgery IL-6 levels were compared. Results: After surgery, IL-6 levels increased significantly in both groups. The rise in IL-6 was less with TIVA than with desflurane; however, it did not reach significance. IL-6 rise post-surgery correlated positively with the complexity of procedure and duration of surgery and anaesthesia, rather than anaesthetic technique. Both groups did not differ in terms of intra-operative hemodynamic and respiratory variables, time to awakening, postoperative pulmonary complications, and duration of hospital stay. The incidence of nausea was significantly higher with desflurane than with TIVA. Conclusion: Inflammatory response did not differ as a function of anaesthetic technique when propofol and desflurane were compared. Also, patient and surgical variables dictated post-operative inflammation more than the anaesthetic factors. Further, larger sample size is needed to confirm or refute these findings.

Keywords: bariatric, biomarkers, inflammation, laparoscopy

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Authors: Vivek Mahadev, Manoj Kumar, Neelu Mathur, Brahm Dutt Pandey

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Perimeter guarding and protection of critical installations require prompt intrusion detection and assessment to take effective countermeasures. Currently, visual and electronic surveillance are the primary methods used for perimeter guarding. These methods can be costly and complicated, requiring careful planning according to the location and terrain. Moreover, these methods often struggle to detect stealthy and camouflaged insurgents. The object of the present work is to devise a surveillance technique using seismic sensors that overcomes the limitations of existing systems. The aim is to improve intrusion detection, assessment, and characterization by utilizing seismic sensors. Most of the similar systems have only two types of intrusion detection capability viz., human or vehicle. In our work we could even categorize further to identify types of intrusion activity such as walking, running, group walking, fence jumping, tunnel digging and vehicular movements. A virtual fence of 60 meters at GCNEP, Bahadurgarh, Haryana, India, was created by installing four underground geophones at a distance of 15 meters each. The signals received from these geophones are then processed to find unique seismic signatures called features. Various feature optimization and selection methodologies, such as LightGBM, Boruta, Random Forest, Logistics, Recursive Feature Elimination, Chi-2 and Pearson Ratio were used to identify the best features for training the machine learning models. The trained models were developed using algorithms such as supervised support vector machine (SVM) classifier, kNN, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, and Artificial Neural Networks. These models were then used to predict the category of events, employing weighted ensemble voting to analyze and combine their results. The models were trained with 1940 training events and results were evaluated with 831 test events. It was observed that using the weighted ensemble voting increased the efficiency of predictions. In this study we successfully developed and deployed the virtual fence using geophones. Since these sensors are passive, do not radiate any energy and are installed underground, it is impossible for intruders to locate and nullify them. Their flexibility, quick and easy installation, low costs, hidden deployment and unattended surveillance make such systems especially suitable for critical installations and remote facilities with difficult terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of utilizing seismic sensors for creating better perimeter guarding and protection systems using multiple machine learning models in weighted ensemble voting. In this study the virtual fence achieved an intruder detection efficiency of over 97%.

Keywords: geophone, seismic perimeter surveillance, machine learning, weighted ensemble method

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Ana Paula S. Horodenski, Priscila Pelegrini, Salli Baggenstoss

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The brewing industry with artisanal concepts seeks to serve a specific market, with diversified production that has been gaining ground in the national environment, also in the Amazon region. This growth is due to the more demanding consumer, with a diversified taste that wants to try new types of beer, enjoying products with new aromas, flavors, as a differential of what is so widely spread through the big industrial brands. Thus, through qualitative research methods, the study aimed to investigate how is the process of managing the production of a craft brewery in a city in the northern State of Mato Grosso (BRAZIL), providing knowledge of production processes and strategies in the industry. With the efficient use of resources, it is possible to obtain the necessary quality and provide better performance and differentiation of the company, besides analyzing the best management model. The research is descriptive with a qualitative approach through a case study. For the data collection, a semi-structured interview was elaborated, composed of the areas: microbrewery characterization, artisan beer production process, and the company supply chain management. Also, production processes were observed during technical visits. With the study, it was verified that the artisan brewery researched develops preventive maintenance strategies with the inputs, machines, and equipment, so that the quality of the product and the production process are achieved. It was observed that the distance from the supplying centers makes the management of processes and the supply chain be carried out with a longer planning time so that the delivery of the final product is satisfactory. The production process of the brewery is composed of machines and equipment that allows the control and quality of the product, which the manager states that for the productive capacity of the industry and its consumer market, the available equipment meets the demand. This study also contributes to highlight one of the challenges for the development of small breweries in front of the market giants, that is, the legislation, which fits the microbreweries as producers of alcoholic beverages. This makes the micro and small business segment to be taxed as a major, who has advantages in purchasing large batches of raw materials and tax incentives because they are large employers and tax pickers. It was possible to observe that the supply chain management system relies on spreadsheets and notes that are done manually, which could be simplified with a computer program to streamline procedures and reduce risks and failures of the manual process. In relation to the control of waste and effluents affected by the industry is outsourced and meets the needs. Finally, the results showed that the industry uses preventive maintenance as a productive strategy, which allows better conditions for the production and quality of artisanal beer. The quality is directly related to the satisfaction of the final consumer, being prized and performed throughout the production process, with the selection of better inputs, the effectiveness of the production processes and the relationship with the commercial partners.

Keywords: artisanal brewery, production management, production processes, supply chain

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Authors: Rahaba Marima, Clement Penny

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The Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for HIV positive patients has improved since the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). However, in the present HAART era, HIV co-morbidities such as lung cancer, a non-AIDS (NAIDS) defining cancer have been documented to be on the rise. Under normal physiological conditions, cells grow, repair and proliferate through the cell-cycle as cellular homeostasis is important in the maintenance and proper regulation of tissues and organs. Contrarily, the deregulation of the cell-cycle is a hallmark of cancer, including lung cancer. The association between lung cancer and the use of HAART components such as Efavirenz (EFV) is poorly understood. This study aimed at elucidating the effects of EFV on the cell-cycle genes’ expression in lung cancer. For this purpose, the human cell-cycle gene array composed of 84 genes was evaluated on both normal lung fibroblasts (MRC-5) cells and adenocarcinoma (A549) lung cells, in response to 13µM EFV or 0.01% vehicle. The ±2 up or down fold change was used as a basis of target selection, with p < 0.05. Additionally, RT-qPCR was done to validate the gene array results. Next, In-silico bio-informatics tools, Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes/Proteins (STRING), Reactome, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) were used for gene/gene interaction studies as well as to map the molecular and biological pathways influenced by the identified targets. Interestingly, the DNA damage response (DDR) pathway genes such as p53, Ataxia telangiectasia mutated and Rad3 related (ATR), Growth arrest and DNA damage inducible alpha (GADD45A), HUS1 checkpoint homolog (HUS1) and Role of radiation (RAD) genes were shown to be upregulated following EFV treatment, as revealed by STRING analysis. Additionally, functional enrichment analysis by the KEGG pathway revealed that most of the differentially expressed gene targets function at the cell-cycle checkpoint such as p21, Aurora kinase B (AURKB) and Mitotic Arrest Deficient-Like 2 (MAD2L2). Core analysis by IPA revealed that p53 downstream targets such as survivin, Bcl2, and cyclin/cyclin dependent kinases (CDKs) complexes are down-regulated, following exposure to EFV. Furthermore, Reactome analysis showed a significant increase in cellular response to stress genes, DNA repair genes, and apoptosis genes, as observed in both normal and cancerous cells. These findings implicate the genotoxic effects of EFV on lung cells, provoking the DDR pathway. Notably, the constitutive expression of this pathway (DDR) often leads to uncontrolled cell proliferation and eventually tumourigenesis, which could be the attribute of HAART components’ (such as EFV) effect on human cancers. Targeting the cell-cycle and its regulation holds a promising therapeutic intervention to the potential HAART associated carcinogenesis, particularly lung cancer.

Keywords: cell-cycle, DNA damage response, Efavirenz, lung cancer

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Authors: B. Neethu, Diptesh Das

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The present study investigates the performance of a semi-active controller using magneto-rheological dampers (MR) for seismic response reduction of a multi-span bridge. The application of structural control to the structures during earthquake excitation involves numerous challenges such as proper formulation and selection of the control strategy, mathematical modeling of the system, uncertainty in system parameters and noisy measurements. These problems, however, need to be tackled in order to design and develop controllers which will efficiently perform in such complex systems. A control algorithm, which can accommodate un-certainty and imprecision compared to all the other algorithms mentioned so far, due to its inherent robustness and ability to cope with the parameter uncertainties and imprecisions, is the sliding mode algorithm. A sliding mode control algorithm is adopted in the present study due to its inherent stability and distinguished robustness to system parameter variation and external disturbances. In general a semi-active control scheme using an MR damper requires two nested controllers: (i) an overall system controller, which derives the control force required to be applied to the structure and (ii) an MR damper voltage controller which determines the voltage required to be supplied to the damper in order to generate the desired control force. In the present study a sliding mode algorithm is used to determine the desired optimal force. The function of the voltage controller is to command the damper to produce the desired force. The clipped optimal algorithm is used to find the command voltage supplied to the MR damper which is regulated by a semi active control law based on sliding mode algorithm. The main objective of the study is to propose a robust semi active control which can effectively control the responses of the bridge under real earthquake ground motions. Lumped mass model of the bridge is developed and time history analysis is carried out by solving the governing equations of motion in the state space form. The effectiveness of MR dampers is studied by analytical simulations by subjecting the bridge to real earthquake records. In this regard, it may also be noted that the performance of controllers depends, to a great extent, on the characteristics of the input ground motions. Therefore, in order to study the robustness of the controller in the present study, the performance of the controllers have been investigated for fourteen different earthquake ground motion records. The earthquakes are chosen in such a way that all possible characteristic variations can be accommodated. Out of these fourteen earthquakes, seven are near-field and seven are far-field. Also, these earthquakes are divided into different frequency contents, viz, low-frequency, medium-frequency, and high-frequency earthquakes. The responses of the controlled bridge are compared with the responses of the corresponding uncontrolled bridge (i.e., the bridge without any control devices). The results of the numerical study show that the sliding mode based semi-active control strategy can substantially reduce the seismic responses of the bridge showing a stable and robust performance for all the earthquakes.

Keywords: bridge, semi active control, sliding mode control, MR damper

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Authors: Marina Gold, Yves Jackson, David Parrat

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The high predominance of Latin American migrants in Geneva from countries where Chagas disease is endemic (Bolivia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia) is increasing the incidence of chronic Chagas-related problems, especially cardiovascular complications. The precarious migratory status of what are mostly undocumented migrants complicates access to health and affects patients’ and doctors’ health perceptions regarding screening, treatment and monitoring of Chagas-related health concerns. This project results from a 3 year collaboration between the Geneva University Hospital and the NGO Mundo Sano to understand the following questions: 1) how do Latin American migrants perceive their health? 2) What do they understand from Chagas disease? 3) Are patients’ and doctors’ health perceptions similar or do they have competing agendas? This paper aims to present the results of a long-term study that interrogates health perceptions among Latin American migrants in Geneva. The first phase consisted in completing surveys at three community screening events (2016, 2017. 2018), and the results of these surveys reveal the subordination of the importance of health to that of having met economic family obligation. That is, health is important only when it becomes an impediment to economic gain. The contradictory result emerged that people are aware of the importance of health prevention in order to ensure long-term health, but they do not always have agency over their life-style habits (healthy food, regular exercise, emotional stability). The second phase of the research collected open-ended interviews with selected participants, in order to explore in more detail how Latin American migrants deal with Chagas in a different socio-political and economic context to that of endemic countries. These interviews (5 in total) reveal mixed methods of managing health: social networks, access to health care transnationally (in Geneva, Spain and back in their home country), and different valuations of health problems in each situation. The third phase consisted in observations of doctor-patient consultations and further extended interviews with patients to determine doctor/patient health perceptions around Chagas disease. This phase is ongoing, but it has yielded preliminarily observations regarding the expectations that patients’ have of doctors, and the understanding of doctors’ to patients’ complex situations. Positive and complementary health perceptions include patients’ feeling that doctors in Geneva are more understanding, more knowledgeable and less racist than those in their home country, who do not provide detailed information about Chagas or its treatment and discriminate against them for being indigenous or from poor rural areas, enabling a better communication between doctors and patients. Possible conflicting health perceptions include patients addressing their health concerns more holistically and encountering the specialist’s limitations to only treating one health concern, given time limitations and lack of competition with their colleagues (the general practitioner that referred the patient, for example). The implications of this study extend the case of Chagas disease in Geneva and is relevant for all chronic concerns and migratory contexts of precarity.

Keywords: chagas disease, health perceptions, Latin American Migrants, non-endemic countries

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Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma, Muhammet Demirkol, Murat Aydin, Tuba Gokkus, Burcin Nalbantoglu, Aysin Nalbantoglu, Birol Topcu

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Obesity in childhood establishes a ground for adulthood obesity. Especially morbid obesity is an important problem for the children because of the associated diseases such as diabetes mellitus, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. In this study, body mass index (BMI), body fat ratios, anthropometric measurements and ratios were evaluated together with different laboratory indices upon evaluation of obesity in morbidly obese (MO) children. Children with nutritional problems participated in the study. Written informed consent was obtained from the parents. Study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee. Sixty-two MO girls aged 129.5±35.8 months and 75 MO boys aged 120.1±26.6 months were included into the scope of the study. WHO-BMI percentiles for age-and-sex were used to assess the children with those higher than 99^th as morbid obesity. Anthropometric measurements of the children were recorded after their physical examination. Bio-electrical impedance analysis was performed to measure fat distribution. Anthropometric ratios, body fat ratios, Index-I and Index-II as well as insulin sensitivity indices (ISIs) were calculated. Girls as well as boys were binary grouped according to homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) index of <2.5 and >2.5, fasting glucose to insulin ratio (FGIR) of <6 and >6 and quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI) of <0.33 and >0.33 as the frequently used cut-off points. They were evaluated based upon their BMIs, arms, legs, trunk, whole body fat percentages, body fat ratios such as fat mass index (FMI), trunk-to-appendicular fat ratio (TAFR), whole body fat ratio (WBFR), anthropometric measures and ratios [waist-to-hip, head-to-neck, thigh-to-arm, thigh-to-ankle, height/2-to-waist, height/2-to-hip circumference (C)]. SPSS/PASW 18 program was used for statistical analyses. p≤0.05 was accepted as statistically significance level. All of the fat percentages showed differences between below and above the specified cut-off points in girls when evaluated with HOMA-IR and QUICKI. Differences were observed only in arms fat percent for HOMA-IR and legs fat percent for QUICKI in boys (p≤ 0.05). FGIR was unable to detect any differences for the fat percentages of boys. Head-to-neck C was the only anthropometric ratio recommended to be used for all ISIs (p≤0.001 for both girls and boys in HOMA-IR, p≤0.001 for girls and p≤0.05 for boys in FGIR and QUICKI). Indices which are recommended for use in both genders were Index-I, Index-II, HOMA/BMI and log HOMA (p≤0.001). FMI was also a valuable index when evaluated with HOMA-IR and QUICKI (p≤0.001). The important point was the detection of the severe significance for HOMA/BMI and log HOMA while they were evaluated also with the other indices, FGIR and QUICKI (p≤0.001). These parameters along with Index-I were unique at this level of significance for all children. In conclusion, well-accepted ratios or indices may not be valid for the evaluation of both genders. This study has emphasized the limiting properties for boys. This is particularly important for the selection process of some ratios and/or indices during the clinical studies. Gender difference should be taken into consideration for the evaluation of the ratios or indices, which will be recommended to be used particularly within the scope of obesity studies.

Keywords: anthropometry, childhood obesity, gender, insulin sensitivity index

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Authors: Anudeep Appe, Bhanu Poluparthi, Lakshmi Kasivajjula, Udai Mv, Sobha Bagadi, Punya Modi, Aditya Singh, Hemanth Gunupudi, Spenser Troiano, Jeff Paul, Justin Stovall, Justin Yamamoto

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The necessity of data-driven decisions in healthcare strategy formulation is rapidly increasing. A reliable framework which helps identify factors impacting a healthcare provider facility or a hospital (from here on termed as facility) market share is of key importance. This pilot study aims at developing a data-driven machine learning-regression framework which aids strategists in formulating key decisions to improve the facility’s market share which in turn impacts in improving the quality of healthcare services. The US (United States) healthcare business is chosen for the study, and the data spanning 60 key facilities in Washington State and about 3 years of historical data is considered. In the current analysis, market share is termed as the ratio of the facility’s encounters to the total encounters among the group of potential competitor facilities. The current study proposes a two-pronged approach of competitor identification and regression approach to evaluate and predict market share, respectively. Leveraged model agnostic technique, SHAP, to quantify the relative importance of features impacting the market share. Typical techniques in literature to quantify the degree of competitiveness among facilities use an empirical method to calculate a competitive factor to interpret the severity of competition. The proposed method identifies a pool of competitors, develops Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and feature level word vectors, and evaluates the key connected components at the facility level. This technique is robust since its data-driven, which minimizes the bias from empirical techniques. The DAGs factor in partial correlations at various segregations and key demographics of facilities along with a placeholder to factor in various business rules (for ex. quantifying the patient exchanges, provider references, and sister facilities). Identified are the multiple groups of competitors among facilities. Leveraging the competitors' identified developed and fine-tuned Random Forest Regression model to predict the market share. To identify key drivers of market share at an overall level, permutation feature importance of the attributes was calculated. For relative quantification of features at a facility level, incorporated SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a model agnostic explainer. This helped to identify and rank the attributes at each facility which impacts the market share. This approach proposes an amalgamation of the two popular and efficient modeling practices, viz., machine learning with graphs and tree-based regression techniques to reduce the bias. With these, we helped to drive strategic business decisions.

Keywords: competition, DAGs, facility, healthcare, machine learning, market share, random forest, SHAP

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Authors: N. Šarlija, S. Pfeifer, M. Jeger, A. Bilandžić

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Enterprise growth is generally considered as a key driver of competitiveness, employment, economic development and social inclusion. As such, it is perceived to be a highly desirable outcome of entrepreneurship for scholars and decision makers. The huge academic debate resulted in the multitude of theoretical frameworks focused on explaining growth stages, determinants and future prospects. It has been widely accepted that enterprise growth is most likely nonlinear, temporal and related to the variety of factors which reflect the individual, firm, organizational, industry or environmental determinants of growth. However, factors that affect growth are not easily captured, instruments to measure those factors are often arbitrary, causality between variables and growth is elusive, indicating that growth is not easily modeled. Furthermore, in line with heterogeneous nature of the growth phenomenon, there is a vast number of measurement constructs assessing growth which are used interchangeably. Differences among various growth measures, at conceptual as well as at operationalization level, can hinder theory development which emphasizes the need for more empirically robust studies. In line with these highlights, the main purpose of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to compare structure and performance of three growth prediction models based on the main growth measures: Revenues, employment and assets growth. Secondly, to explore the prospects of financial indicators, set as exact, visible, standardized and accessible variables, to serve as determinants of enterprise growth. Finally, to contribute to the understanding of the implications on research results and recommendations for growth caused by different growth measures. The models include a range of financial indicators as lag determinants of the enterprises’ performances during the 2008-2013, extracted from the national register of the financial statements of SMEs in Croatia. The design and testing stage of the modeling used the logistic regression procedures. Findings confirm that growth prediction models based on different measures of growth have different set of predictors. Moreover, the relationship between particular predictors and growth measure is inconsistent, namely the same predictor positively related to one growth measure may exert negative effect on a different growth measure. Overall, financial indicators alone can serve as good proxy of growth and yield adequate predictive power of the models. The paper sheds light on both methodology and conceptual framework of enterprise growth by using a range of variables which serve as a proxy for the multitude of internal and external determinants, but are unlike them, accessible, available, exact and free of perceptual nuances in building up the model. Selection of the growth measure seems to have significant impact on the implications and recommendations related to growth. Furthermore, the paper points out to potential pitfalls of measuring and predicting growth. Overall, the results and the implications of the study are relevant for advancing academic debates on growth-related methodology, and can contribute to evidence-based decisions of policy makers.

Keywords: growth measurement constructs, logistic regression, prediction of growth potential, small and medium-sized enterprises

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Authors: Rob Leslie, Taher Karimian

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The blockage of cross drainage structures is a risk that needs to be understood and managed or lessened through the design. A blockage is a random event, influenced by site-specific factors, which needs to be quantified for design. Under and overestimation of blockage can have major impacts on flood risk and cost associated with drainage structures. The importance of this matter is heightened for those projects located within sensitive lands. It is a particularly complex problem for large linear infrastructure projects (e.g., rail corridors) located within floodplains where blockage factors can influence flooding upstream and downstream of the infrastructure. The selection of the appropriate blockage factors for hydraulic modeling has been subject to extensive research by hydraulic engineers. This paper has been prepared to review the current Australian Rainfall and Runoff 2019 (ARR 2019) methodology for blockage assessment by applying this method to a transport corridor brownfield upgrade case study in New South Wales. The results of applying the method are also validated against asset data and maintenance records. ARR 2019 – Book 6, Chapter 6 includes advice and an approach for estimating the blockage of bridges and culverts. This paper concentrates specifically on the blockage of cross drainage structures. The method has been developed to estimate the blockage level for culverts affected by sediment or debris due to flooding. The objective of the approach is to evaluate a numerical blockage factor that can be utilized in a hydraulic assessment of cross drainage structures. The project included an assessment of over 200 cross drainage structures. In order to estimate a blockage factor for use in the hydraulic model, a process has been advanced that considers the qualitative factors (e.g., Debris type, debris availability) and site-specific hydraulic factors that influence blockage. A site rating associated with the debris potential (i.e., availability, transportability, mobility) at each crossing was completed using the method outlined in ARR 2019 guidelines. The hydraulic results inputs (i.e., flow velocity, flow depth) and qualitative factors at each crossing were developed into an advanced spreadsheet where the design blockage level for cross drainage structures were determined based on the condition relating Inlet Clear Width and L10 (average length of the longest 10% of the debris reaching the site) and the Adjusted Debris Potential. Asset data, including site photos and maintenance records, were then reviewed and compared with the blockage assessment to check the validity of the results. The results of this assessment demonstrate that the estimated blockage factors at each crossing location using ARR 2019 guidelines are well-validated with the asset data. The primary finding of the study is that the ARR 2019 methodology is a suitable approach for culvert blockage assessment that has been validated against a case study spanning a large geographical area and multiple sub-catchments. The study also found that the methodology can be effectively coded within a spreadsheet or similar analytical tool to automate its application.

Keywords: ARR 2019, blockage, culverts, methodology

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